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Speaker 2: Two very important headlines across the terminal since we've come
Speaker 2: on the air at noon today, the Pentagon deploying a
Speaker 2: few thousand, as they term it, few thousand more forces
Speaker 2: to the Mid East, saying as well that they do
Speaker 2: believe that a possible ground incursion by Israel into Lebanon
Speaker 2: is imminent. Those two lines coming from a spokesperson at
Speaker 2: the Pentagon earlier today. And we're glad to have Natasha
Speaker 2: Hall back with a senior fellow with the Middle East
Speaker 2: Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies CSIS. Natasha,
Speaker 2: welcome back. How important are the next twenty four hours
Speaker 2: here to determining the next phase and what appears to
Speaker 2: be a wider war.
Speaker 3: I would say unprecedented, but I feel like we've been
Speaker 3: using that word a little too much in the past
Speaker 3: few months. We've just seen unprecedented attacks from Israel on Lebanon,
Speaker 3: including the assassination of longtime leader Caasan nos RelA in
Speaker 3: just the past forty eight hours, and now intelligence coming
Speaker 3: in that Israeli is launching ground incursions into Lebanon, and
Speaker 3: remains to be seen if this will be part of
Speaker 3: a larger ground invasion and really what the end end
Speaker 3: of game is for this. Does it mean occupation of
Speaker 3: southern Lebanon as Israel has done before, So very very
Speaker 3: scary times up ahead, but I suspect that they will
Speaker 3: continue for the foreseeable future, and not just the next
Speaker 3: twenty four hours as Israel's adversary sort of recuperate and
Speaker 3: rethink their strategy, as they've suffered enormous losses in the
Speaker 3: past couple of weeks.
Speaker 4: Well to that exact point, Natasha, it's not just Anzurala
Speaker 4: that has been killed, but a number of top commanders
Speaker 4: for Hesbela. Obviously, we saw the explosions earlier this month
Speaker 4: that took out waki, takies and pagers, things that they
Speaker 4: were using to communicate how capable is hesbola A fighting
Speaker 4: off a potential ground invasion that Israel may choose to pursue,
Speaker 4: or are they likely to be fortified or or more
Speaker 4: willing to go to drastic measures to retaliate because they've
Speaker 4: taken such heavy losses.
Speaker 3: There's the short term game and then there's the long
Speaker 3: term game here. So I think that Hezbolah has a
Speaker 3: lot of territory to recuperate on, including in Syria where
Speaker 3: they have forces as well, But in the near term
Speaker 3: it will be very difficult for them to mount an
Speaker 3: attack on Israel. That said, if Israel decides to actually
Speaker 3: mount an invasion into Lebanon, they will be mounting an
Speaker 3: invasion into a country that Hasbulah has had about eighteen
Speaker 3: years to prepare for. So we're talking about tunnel networks,
Speaker 3: we're talking about still tens of thousands of troops, and frankly,
Speaker 3: Israel's actions in the past year have created a really
Speaker 3: limitless supply of soldiers both in the region and beyond.
Speaker 3: So again I think it's more than the next twenty
Speaker 3: four hours that were witnessing very sort of scary escalation.
Speaker 2: Sure sounds like it. And when we hear from the
Speaker 2: Pentagon Natasha that we're deploying what they call a few
Speaker 2: thousand more forces in the Mideast, is this about force
Speaker 2: protection for Israel. Are we concerned about this escalating to
Speaker 2: the point where we're going to have Americans actively involved
Speaker 2: in helping to defend Israel, whether it be in the
Speaker 2: air or on the ground. And who are these forces?
Speaker 2: What are they going for?
Speaker 3: Well, it's not just these thousands of forces. There's two
Speaker 3: carrier strike groups that one in the Mediterranean and one
Speaker 3: in the Red Sea. So this is a very yes.
Speaker 3: So there's overwhelming force posture on behalf of the United States.
Speaker 3: I am guessing that the United States wants to avoid
Speaker 3: any kind of direct alliance with Israel on this, but
Speaker 3: will provide them with the necessary weapons, including the bomb
Speaker 3: that took out Hassan Nasralla just a couple of days ago.
Speaker 3: So I think that the United States wants to avoid
Speaker 3: an escalation in which they will have to take part
Speaker 3: a direct part in as Iran has over the past
Speaker 3: few months. But it remains to be seen if they
Speaker 3: will be dragged into a more full fledged war. But
Speaker 3: I suspect that they will talk to US citizens on
Speaker 3: the ground throughout the region to evacuate and try to
Speaker 3: defend assets throughout the region as well.
Speaker 5: Well.
Speaker 4: We heard President Biden he was asked about this When
Speaker 4: speaking from the White House earlier today, he was asked
Speaker 4: if he was aware of and comfortable with Israel's plan
Speaker 4: for a limited ground invasion of Lebanon. He said, I'm
Speaker 4: more aware than you might know, and I'm comfortable with
Speaker 4: them stopping. We should have a ceasefire. Now. Do you
Speaker 4: see any incentive for Israel to agree to a short
Speaker 4: term ceasefire at this point or for Hesbola to do
Speaker 4: the same.
Speaker 3: We've been hearing the same thing from the White House
Speaker 3: for months now on Gaza and on Lebanon, and supposedly
Speaker 3: US diplomats have been working tires tirelessly for a ceasefire
Speaker 3: on both fronts for months now, but we also haven't
Speaker 3: seen any kind of tangible leverage being used with Israel
Speaker 3: to get to that ceasefire. And it looks like we've
Speaker 3: just seen Israel escalate more and more each day, each hour,
Speaker 3: but very little on the US side to really curb
Speaker 3: or rein in Israel. In fact, as you mentioned, thousands
Speaker 3: more troops being deployed carrier strike groups. It looks like
Speaker 3: they're defending Israel, that this is their war essentially, and
Speaker 3: so I think it remains to be seen if Israel
Speaker 3: themselves will take the decision and to launch a full
Speaker 3: scale ground invasion of Lebanon. But it does not seem
Speaker 3: as though the United States is willing to really reign
Speaker 3: in Israeli actions at this time or any time prior.
Speaker 2: Well, you just answered my next question. As the administration
Speaker 2: attempts to influence the outcome here, Natasha, I'm curious as
Speaker 2: well about the day after Lebanon is not Gaza, and
Speaker 2: I wonder if Israel has a plan, if it were
Speaker 2: in fact to destroy or decimate, somehow eliminate Hesbela, a
Speaker 2: plan to deal with the nation that would be left over.
Speaker 3: I mean, what we've been seeing is decimated countries. Lebanon, Yemen,
Speaker 3: the port in Yemen was recently attacked also by Israel,
Speaker 3: and Gaza. These are not territories that can withstand another
Speaker 3: humanitarian crisis or another conflict on top of everything else.
Speaker 3: And it doesn't really seem like there's a day after
Speaker 3: plan for any of them. We've seen Israel and US
Speaker 3: officials talk about how Lebanese politicians could take this moment
Speaker 3: of weakness amongst Hesbala leaders to really take the helm
Speaker 3: in the Lebanese government for the first time in years
Speaker 3: or decades, but it remains to be seen how that
Speaker 3: plan actually plays out. Hesbala is still the most powerful
Speaker 3: force on the ground, and they will assassinate leaders that
Speaker 3: go against them, and they've been known to do so
Speaker 3: in the past. So I think just calling on Lebanese
Speaker 3: leaders to stand up to Hesbalah is not going to
Speaker 3: be enough for a day after and we've already seen
Speaker 3: hundreds of thousands of people internally displaced, some of whom
Speaker 3: are actually going into war torn Syria right now for refuge.
Speaker 4: Natasha. We have less than a minute left, But what
Speaker 4: do you expect Iran to do next?
Speaker 3: Iran has been very disappointing, I would say, probably for
Speaker 3: Hesbalah at this time and many of its constituents. We
Speaker 3: have not seen any kind of real retaliation for many
Speaker 3: of the attacks that have taken place over the past
Speaker 3: few weeks and months, and I suspect that Iranian leaders
Speaker 3: are sort of scared to mount any kind of major retaliation.
Speaker 3: That said, there is a fear that if proxy militias
Speaker 3: are so weakened that Iran will look to turns from
Speaker 3: other means like the nuclear like their nuclear weapons arsenal.
Speaker 4: Frightening to consider Natasha, thank you so much for joining us.
Speaker 4: Natasha Hall, Senior Fellow with the Middle East Program at
Speaker 4: the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Thank you so much.
Speaker 4: As we cast our eyes abroad, but we'll look here
Speaker 4: at home next at the aftermath of Hurricane Helene. Stay
Speaker 4: with us on Bloomberg TV and radio.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens
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Speaker 2: I'm Joe Matthew at Bloomberg World Headquarters in New York.
Speaker 2: Kaylee Lines in Washington, d C. Will both be here
Speaker 2: tomorrow for the vice presidential debate, and we'll be talking
Speaker 2: more about that, of course, as we get a bit closer.
Speaker 2: With of course, a massive storm on our hands that
Speaker 2: has left massive destruction. Helene, it appears will be on
Speaker 2: the mount rushmore of severe storms, and I don't mean
Speaker 2: that in a good way, joining Katrina and Sandy the
Speaker 2: top five most damaging storms, with Aciweather now estimating losses
Speaker 2: at one hundred and forty five to one hundred and
Speaker 2: sixty billion dollars. Kaylee, I suspect this is going to
Speaker 2: come up at the debate tomorrow night. It's of course
Speaker 2: impacting the campaign trail. Donald Trump is in Georgia today.
Speaker 4: Yeah, he is. He will be in Valdst Valdusta, Georgia,
Speaker 4: and he of course has criticized both Joe Biden and
Speaker 4: Comba Harris for not being present in Washington while the
Speaker 4: storm and as aftermath were ongoing over the last weekend.
Speaker 4: Joe Biden was in Delaware, Harris was in California. Though
Speaker 4: both have said when it is not going to be
Speaker 4: disruptive to make a visit to affected areas, they do
Speaker 4: intend to do so later this week.
Speaker 2: Joe, Well, i'll tell you what the scenes are horrifying
Speaker 2: with the level of damage, destruction and death that we've
Speaker 2: seen in Bloomberg's. Lord Rosenthal is watching this for us
Speaker 2: and joins me here in New York with a little
Speaker 2: bit more information before we bring in our panel for
Speaker 2: the political implications here. Lauren, it's great to see you.
Speaker 2: Thank you for joining when we're talking about the top
Speaker 2: five storms that really puts this in perspective, were we prepared?
Speaker 6: I would say that a few days in advance we
Speaker 6: started to get warning from forecasters that this would likely
Speaker 6: be a very large and very powerful storm. But I
Speaker 6: think that communities far inland in the Carolinas and southern
Speaker 6: Apalachian Mountains were surprised by how much rain they got,
Speaker 6: and that's really responsible for a lot of the day damage.
Speaker 4: Well, yeah, can you quantify the damage and destruction and
Speaker 4: frankly loss of life that we have seen to this point, Lauren,
Speaker 4: Over one hundred dead, still hundreds unaccounted for, I understand.
Speaker 4: And what kind of economic losses realistically are we looking
Speaker 4: at here?
Speaker 6: Sure, a lot of homes and businesses are gone. I
Speaker 6: think as the waters received, rescuers are starting to get
Speaker 6: a sense of how many people are still unaccounted for,
Speaker 6: and the scope of the damage is becoming clear as well.
Speaker 6: There's been a lot of water treatment facilities lost, so
Speaker 6: folks are struggling to get access to clean drinking water.
Speaker 6: You know, lots of bridges in this really mountainous region,
Speaker 6: crisscrossed by tiny streams and rivers. All of that will
Speaker 6: need to be replaced.
Speaker 2: You put your finger on something really important though, it's
Speaker 2: not just a matter of clearing out damage, moving tree
Speaker 2: limbs and so forth. Clean water is something we're going
Speaker 2: to be hearing a lot more about as we go
Speaker 2: deeper into this week, isn't it.
Speaker 7: I think that's right.
Speaker 6: With road access washed out or you know, highways just
Speaker 6: still inaccessible in underwater in some places, rescuers are trying
Speaker 6: to bring in supplies.
Speaker 4: By air, and of course Joe and I will be
Speaker 4: actually speaking with the Transportation Secretary Pete boota judge about
Speaker 4: this on the later edition of Balance of Power at
Speaker 4: five pm Eastern time. And of course, as we consider
Speaker 4: how long it may take Lauren to recover from this
Speaker 4: particular storm, hurricane season is not yet over. Are there
Speaker 4: potentially more storms that could come and hit these communities?
Speaker 4: Once again, I.
Speaker 6: Think, unfortunately that's not out of the question. We're heading
Speaker 6: into what's historically a very busy period in the hurricane season.
Speaker 7: Right now.
Speaker 6: Forecasters at the US National Hurricane Center are tracking three
Speaker 6: different storms or disturbances in the Atlantic. At least one
Speaker 6: of them, forecasters said today has the potential to become
Speaker 6: another very large and powerful storm, So that is definitely
Speaker 6: something worth keeping an eye on.
Speaker 4: Absolutely all right, Lauren Rosenthal, a weather reporter for us
Speaker 4: here at Bloomberg, thank you so much. Now, of course,
Speaker 4: we did hear from President Biden at the White House
Speaker 4: earlier today addressing this storm and its aftermath, talking about
Speaker 4: how he might request supplemental funding from Congress. Here was
Speaker 4: the President earlier.
Speaker 8: I quickly approved requests from governors of Florida, North Carolina,
Speaker 8: South Carolina, Tennessee, Georgia, and Virginia and Alabama for an
Speaker 8: emergency declaration, and I approved additional requests for the governors
Speaker 8: of North Carolina, Florida, South Carolina and for a disaster
Speaker 8: declaration to pay for debris removal, provide financial assistance directly
Speaker 8: directly to survivors.
Speaker 4: And of course, the President also said, as we mentioned earlier,
Speaker 4: he does intend to visit affected areas later on this week,
Speaker 4: when it will no longer be disruptive to do so.
Speaker 3: So.
Speaker 4: On that note, we assemble now our political panel, Genie
Speaker 4: shan Zeno, senior Democracy fellow with the Center for the
Speaker 4: Study of the Presidency and Congress, and Rick Davis Stone
Speaker 4: Court Capital partner, both of them Bloomberg Politics contributors. Rick,
Speaker 4: just to begin with you, as it's not just Biden,
Speaker 4: but potentially Harris that will make a visit to affected
Speaker 4: areas in the coming days, when Donald Trump is doing
Speaker 4: so today in Georgia. How should we consider the optics
Speaker 4: of this, of going versus not going, of making any
Speaker 4: of this political at all when so many lives have
Speaker 4: been affected.
Speaker 9: Yeah, this is always a supercharged period of time. We've
Speaker 9: experienced these kinds of natural disasters during political campaigns and
Speaker 9: there's no good roadmap that tells you do these things
Speaker 9: and it's a safe harbor. Nobody should be trying to
Speaker 9: take advantage politically of a natural disaster, but they will
Speaker 9: be punished if they don't seem responsive enough. We all
Speaker 9: remember George W. Bush flying over the aftermath of the
Speaker 9: hurricane in Louisiana, looking disconnected from it. So there is
Speaker 9: a timetable. I think that the President and Vice President
Speaker 9: Harris should be very respectful of the teams on the
Speaker 9: ground trying to recover, but also understand that the American
Speaker 9: public wants to see them on the ground. They want
Speaker 9: to see that the nation's leaders understand the importance of
Speaker 9: this historic storm killing over one hundred and fifteen people,
Speaker 9: devastating communities Inland. Very unusual for a hurricane like this,
Speaker 9: and communities that are actually involved in voting right now
Speaker 9: are and two of the three states that were most
Speaker 9: affected are swing states in this election. So this is hypersensitive,
Speaker 9: and I think that I would suspect that the White
Speaker 9: House is trying to pay as much attention to this
Speaker 9: as any other issue in the world.
Speaker 2: Well, it's not lost on us, indeed, Rick, that this
Speaker 2: storm landed on a couple of critical swing states and
Speaker 2: Donald Trump is in one of them today. In the
Speaker 2: case of Georgia, he's accusing Kamala Harris of sleeping. I
Speaker 2: believe it was Joe Biden sleeping on the beach.
Speaker 1: He said.
Speaker 2: Kamala Harris should have gone to North Carolina instead went
Speaker 2: to Washington. The local officials in these areas, specifically in
Speaker 2: North Carolina Genie, have made clear, don't come to Ashville.
Speaker 2: We have too much on our hands right now and
Speaker 2: a visit of this sort would be logistically extremely challenging.
Speaker 2: But Rick makes a great point. They're voting in these
Speaker 2: states right now, and people do often want to see
Speaker 2: their leaders in action. Sha Kamala Harris gas up the
Speaker 2: jet and go.
Speaker 10: No, she should not go until local officials. State officials
Speaker 10: say that she's not going to disrupt the very important
Speaker 10: area in which they are working now, which is to
Speaker 10: get people clean food, clean clean water, food, and make
Speaker 10: sure they're safe. But can we just take a step
Speaker 10: back a minute and say, last week was Climate change
Speaker 10: Week in New York City, and what do we have.
Speaker 10: We have Donald Trump out on the campaign trail this
Speaker 10: weekend calling climate change a hoax. We have him at
Speaker 10: the last debate calling climate change a hoak, and this
Speaker 10: weekend the biggest scam on Earth. And yet any scientists
Speaker 10: will tell you that climate change is the reason we
Speaker 10: are seeing the storms to this degree, this devastating, this
Speaker 10: loss of life. And Kamala Harris, by the way, is
Speaker 10: not far behind. While she agrees there's climate change, she
Speaker 10: steps up in the last debate and supports fracking. So
Speaker 10: the reality is we need as a nation to listen
Speaker 10: to the scientists and experts who tell us that this
Speaker 10: is a threat to humanity, a threat to the planet.
Speaker 10: When we get warmer in our climate and the waters,
Speaker 10: there is no going back. And that's where we are
Speaker 10: at this point. So I think, you know, politics aside
Speaker 10: on all of this. It's sort of a pox on
Speaker 10: all of their houses. Let's get real on the issue
Speaker 10: that's affecting all of us and will affect our children
Speaker 10: and our grandchildren, our planets, which is climate change. And
Speaker 10: we need to take the threat from the experts very
Speaker 10: very seriously. And neither side is doing that right now
Speaker 10: to the degree they should.
Speaker 3: Well.
Speaker 4: And it has been pointed out in the last several
Speaker 4: days that Project twenty twenty five would call for the
Speaker 4: downsizing of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAH, which
Speaker 4: of course is a tracker of these storms. We should know.
Speaker 4: Donald Trump has made it very clear that he has
Speaker 4: tried to distance himself from Project twenty twenty five, but
Speaker 4: that has been a point of discussion this week. There's
Speaker 4: another element to this as well, and President Biden did
Speaker 4: speak to this at the White House when he was
Speaker 4: asked about a supplemental funding request of Congress. He was asked,
Speaker 4: are you going to need to call them back for
Speaker 4: a special session, because Genie, the lawmakers who have the
Speaker 4: power to secure more funding for the areas that need
Speaker 4: it aren't planning to be back in Washington until after
Speaker 4: the election in mid November. Those are members who are
Speaker 4: running races as well trying to win them of their own.
Speaker 4: How does that look to your constituents if you aren't
Speaker 4: even in town to do the important work of helping
Speaker 4: areas recover from a devastation of a natural disaster.
Speaker 10: Yeah, you know, I think they may have to be
Speaker 10: called back to do that, and I think representatives would
Speaker 10: They certainly want to serve their districts. The President is
Speaker 10: absolutely right, more funding and needed, and I think we
Speaker 10: should say thank goodness that commer heads prevailed and we
Speaker 10: didn't see a government shutdown as Donald Trump was asking
Speaker 10: for last week over a bill that's not needed, because
Speaker 10: if that had happened, imagine where we would be now,
Speaker 10: which trying to get with trying to get relief these
Speaker 10: needed areas. So we do need the federal government and
Speaker 10: we need those representatives to step in, and they're going
Speaker 10: to have to get off the campaign trail, and I
Speaker 10: think most will to do that important work.
Speaker 2: If you want to see the politics of a natural
Speaker 2: disaster in real time, if you're with us on Bloomberg
Speaker 2: TV or on YouTube, check out the set for Donald Trump.
Speaker 2: This is Valdosta, Georgia once again where they have actually compiled,
Speaker 2: actually used bricks from a destroyed building behind them to
Speaker 2: create kind of a platform for the podium here. Rick,
Speaker 2: I don't know if you can see this, but this
Speaker 2: is a campaign that is being very deliberate about the
Speaker 2: optics in our remaining moment. Does it work?
Speaker 9: Yeah, he could wind up getting some attention like what
Speaker 9: we're giving him about being in Valdosta. Hopefully it's not
Speaker 9: a distraction to the people who are trying to recover there.
Speaker 9: But look, it's not a bad thing for elected officials
Speaker 9: to point to whether or not there is an adequate
Speaker 9: federal response to disasters like this in the past.
Speaker 5: There have been problems.
Speaker 9: In fact, there were problems during the Trump administration and
Speaker 9: a very limited federal response to hurricanes in Puerto Rico,
Speaker 9: at which point you Donald Trump went and you know,
Speaker 9: throw toilet paper to the crowd. So it depends on
Speaker 9: how that event goes and what the message is that
Speaker 9: really matters. Just showing up is only half the agenda.
Speaker 2: That's true. There's an opportunity to succeed as well as
Speaker 2: to fail. Here, Rick Davis and Genie Shanzino or a
Speaker 2: signature panel. This is Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of power Kens just
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Speaker 4: New York of course also where we find Joe Matthew today,
Speaker 4: and while I'm in Washington for now, I'll be heading
Speaker 4: up there later on. And there's a reason for that.
Speaker 4: It's because the Big Apple is hosting the big event
Speaker 4: tomorrow night. New York City is where the vice presidential
Speaker 4: debate will take place between jd Vance and Tim Wallas,
Speaker 4: and of course will be on CBS, and it's going
Speaker 4: to look and sound perhaps a little bit different than
Speaker 4: the presidential debate we saw on ABC just a few
Speaker 4: weeks ago. Joe, the moderators will not be fact checking,
Speaker 4: and the mics will be hot. Yeah the entire time.
Speaker 2: What happened to the muted microphones? I thought that was
Speaker 2: the go forward, and Donald Trump isn't there. We do
Speaker 2: it a little bit differently, so I guess a little
Speaker 2: more traditional in that sense. But again, they're also going
Speaker 2: to be standing in a TV studio without an audience,
Speaker 2: which brings its own set of challenges. Here, Kayley for
Speaker 2: two very different candidate than Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
Speaker 2: Certainly jd. Vance has a bit more experience here. Tim
Speaker 2: Walls has been at least floating this idea that he's
Speaker 2: very nervous. Do you think he's gaming the crowd here or.
Speaker 4: What maybe a little bit of expectation setting lowering the bar.
Speaker 4: We've seen that ahead of all of these debates to
Speaker 4: some degree, haven't we.
Speaker 2: Yeah, he's told CNN he doesn't want to let Kamala
Speaker 2: Harris down. But they're both taking their own approaches at
Speaker 2: prep here. And it's where we start our conversation with
Speaker 2: Mick mulvaney. He's back with us, of course, the former
Speaker 2: acting White House Chief of Staff and the Trump administration
Speaker 2: for congressman, co founder the House Freedom Caucus, former director
Speaker 2: of the OMB. How come everyone always forgets that one? Mick,
Speaker 2: it's great to have you back before we talk strategy here.
Speaker 2: It's good to see you on Bloomberg. Just broadly, do
Speaker 2: people care Normally in a presidential contest, this would not
Speaker 2: be the most watched event. What's going to happen tomorrow?
Speaker 7: The short answer to your question is no, Okay, we care,
Speaker 7: We do listen if you consider yourself to be sort
Speaker 7: of politically engaged if you're a commentator, a pundent, whatever,
Speaker 7: I am. I have no idea. Yeah, we're gonna watch
Speaker 7: it to be able to comment. Maybe see, you know, listen,
Speaker 7: if you're curious about who the next president vice president
Speaker 7: United States is going to be, you might tune in.
Speaker 7: But I think it's very much inside baseball. I don't
Speaker 7: think there's a single undecided voter who goes you know what,
Speaker 7: I'm on the sided between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
Speaker 7: I think this vice presidential debate is going to be
Speaker 7: determinive for me in that process. I just don't I
Speaker 7: just don't see it. People don't vote based upon VP.
Speaker 4: Well, I wonder, Mick, if that's people don't decide to
Speaker 4: vote for a ticket because of the vice presidential debate,
Speaker 4: But could they decide to vote against one? Is there
Speaker 4: an opportunity here for one of these two gentlemen to
Speaker 4: slip up?
Speaker 1: I guess yes.
Speaker 7: The answer is yes. If your question is is there
Speaker 7: more downside to a campaign ticket from doing these then
Speaker 7: there's upside? The answers yes, you know, someone goes off
Speaker 7: and says something completely outrageous or stupid. Can it reflect
Speaker 7: badly on the top of the ticket? Yes, it can,
Speaker 7: But I mean look back over the You know, we
Speaker 7: remember these for what we remember these for? When was
Speaker 7: it Lloyd Benson said? That wasn't John Kennedy did? Did
Speaker 7: that movie he votes? You know, we remember what Mike
Speaker 7: Pence had a fly on his forehead? Is that movie
Speaker 7: he votes? We don't remember these for the deep policy
Speaker 7: sort of sort of discussions.
Speaker 2: Made the fly really famous. Though, meck, I guess that
Speaker 2: means everyone's going to come pack in with a one
Speaker 2: liner tomorrow and eight they're going to try to do
Speaker 2: the Lloyd Benson moment. Right MIC's are going to be unmuted.
Speaker 2: This actually could be a little feisty.
Speaker 7: Everybody's looking for their viral moment. And look, if I
Speaker 7: was a betting man on who I think might be
Speaker 7: better on their feet. And again, I know both these guys.
Speaker 7: I do not know j D nearly as well as
Speaker 7: I know Tim. I like both of these guys. I
Speaker 7: really liked Tim a lot. You know, we again we
Speaker 7: shared a locker or right next to each other in
Speaker 7: the gym for six years. He's a nice guy. But
Speaker 7: if I had to put money on who's going to
Speaker 7: be better on their feet with the Quippi one liners.
Speaker 7: It's going to be JD. Why is that? Keep in
Speaker 7: mind one of the reasons they say that the Democrats
Speaker 7: hire Walls, but he's so good on interviews and on TV,
Speaker 7: but they haven't let him do many of those. Since
Speaker 7: he's been sort of picked as the VP, JD has,
Speaker 7: He's gone on unfriendly media outlets, and he's got a
Speaker 7: lot of tough questions. My guess is that JD Vance
Speaker 7: will not get a question tonight that he hasn't been
Speaker 7: asked several times tomorrow night, that he has been asked
Speaker 7: several times. It's possible that Tim Walls is and if
Speaker 7: you get caught off guard or off balance, that's when
Speaker 7: those viral negative moments might spring up.
Speaker 4: I am curious to hear more about your Jim Jim
Speaker 4: situation with now Governor Tim Walls, Mick, but uh, we did, Okay, No,
Speaker 4: Joe really wants to know.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't, how so tell us more, Mick.
Speaker 7: I need to hear this since since this is off
Speaker 7: the record, I know and you know no one cares. Absolutely.
Speaker 7: My line is that I've seen Tim Walls naked more
Speaker 7: than his wife has okay, so so yeah, we had
Speaker 7: the lockers next to each other in the in the house,
Speaker 7: Jim for six. He's a lovely guide. But I mean
Speaker 7: the listen. We can talk a long time another day
Speaker 7: about about how Democrats and Republicans actually behave towards each
Speaker 7: other in the house. It's not at all with the
Speaker 7: media broad or broadly what have you think? We are friends,
Speaker 7: We still communicate with each other. I wish him well.
Speaker 7: I hope he loses.
Speaker 5: How about that.
Speaker 4: Fair enough? And that is a good a good reminder, Mike,
Speaker 4: if we could talk about the substance the issues some
Speaker 4: of these two will be uh debating. Uh, there's questions
Speaker 4: that are around things like say immigration, knowing that that
Speaker 4: has been a perceived with weakness for the Democratic ticket specifically.
Speaker 4: But jd. Vance has caught in a lot of flack
Speaker 4: in recent weeks for continuing to propagate a lie about
Speaker 4: Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio eating cats and dogs. Does
Speaker 4: he need to disavow that on the debate stage tomorrow night, Mick.
Speaker 7: I don't know what disavowing does I mean if there's damage,
Speaker 7: it's already been done. If you come in and disavow it.
Speaker 7: I'm not sure that that helps much, but you raise
Speaker 7: a good point of immigration. I'm not sure why Kamala
Speaker 7: Harris went to the border this week, and I know
Speaker 7: that's sent your question, Kaylee, but it ties into this
Speaker 7: larger issue. This is an issue that the Democrats are
Speaker 7: weaker on than the Republicans. I equate it to her
Speaker 7: going to the border right before the election, so a
Speaker 7: couple of weeks before the election, to Donald Trump going
Speaker 7: to Pennsylvania and talking about nothing but abortion for an
Speaker 7: hour and a half. Why draw attention to the issues
Speaker 7: that are not your strength. I get it, it's a
Speaker 7: big deal in Arizona, it's a big deal in of Otter.
Speaker 7: She sort of has to go down there eventually. Maybe
Speaker 7: maybe she's insulating herself against the charge going forward that
Speaker 7: she's never been to the border. But why the Democrats
Speaker 7: draw attention to it? I don't get it, because it's
Speaker 7: not an issue they are going to win on. They're
Speaker 7: doing better on the economy, by the way, according to
Speaker 7: the polling Dad, I still think they trailed Donald Trump
Speaker 7: pretty significantly on the economy, but the trend lines are
Speaker 7: good for them. So why they're not talking about that
Speaker 7: or abortion or the other issues are good about. My
Speaker 7: guess is if Tim Walls gets an immigration question, he
Speaker 7: will mention exactly what you did, very briefly, and then
Speaker 7: try and pivot to something else, probably talk about how
Speaker 7: there was going to be a Senate bill that Donald
Speaker 7: Trump killed. That's the end of the discussion. What's the
Speaker 7: next question?
Speaker 2: Well, Donald Trump is talking about the debate here. He
Speaker 2: posted on truth Social a little bit earlier, Mick, I
Speaker 2: will be doing a personal play by play of the
Speaker 2: debate tomorrow, he says, between the brilliant JD. Vance and
Speaker 2: the highly inarticulate Tim Walls, he uses a nickname that's
Speaker 2: not for the family show. I don't know if it
Speaker 2: were to come up in the locker room, He writes.
Speaker 2: I hope that cognitively challenged lion Kamala Harris will be listening.
Speaker 2: And I mentioned that line because Donald Trump referred to
Speaker 2: her several times over the weekend as mentally impaired and
Speaker 2: mentally disabled. Mick, what do you make of this new
Speaker 2: line of attack and a culture that takes that charge
Speaker 2: pretty seriously.
Speaker 7: Look, we all talk about charges taken seriously, so let's
Speaker 7: isolate on this. Was it a smart thing to No,
Speaker 7: I'm not sure. Sure. Look, if you've decided, and it
Speaker 7: now appears as if both campaigns have decided this is
Speaker 7: a turnout election, they're done. But that's not unusual. You
Speaker 7: focus on the middle, you focus in the middle, and
Speaker 7: then the last weeks you just make sure your voters
Speaker 7: get up and vote. I'm not sure what calling her
Speaker 7: names does to motivate his base. If anything, it probably
Speaker 7: motivates her base to come out to vote against him. Again.
Speaker 7: You can sit in there and sort of second guest
Speaker 7: Donald Trump all you want to. He's been successful running
Speaker 7: for president, so he's going to tell you he knows
Speaker 7: what he's doing. But I just don't know who that
Speaker 7: adds because the right wing base is already upset about
Speaker 7: her and they're going to vote anyway. And is Trump
Speaker 7: just running the risk of motivating the base against him,
Speaker 7: which would be a bad thing. So look, we did
Speaker 7: the same thing with John McCain. I remember talking him
Speaker 7: in the White House during twenty nineteen, getting ready to
Speaker 7: go in to twenty twenty. He's beating up a McCain
Speaker 7: after he died, and it's like, Boss, tell me the
Speaker 7: voter out there who wasn't with you who says, you
Speaker 7: know what, I wasn't with this Trump guy, but now
Speaker 7: that he's beating up on a popular, dead senator, now
Speaker 7: I'm going to vote for him. Maybe there are people
Speaker 7: out there who were with you and now look at
Speaker 7: you and go, wait a second. I was going to
Speaker 7: vote for Trump, and now he's beating up on a
Speaker 7: senator I've voted for for thirty years. Maybe I won't
Speaker 7: vote and he loses Arizona by what ten or fifteen
Speaker 7: thousand votes? So I don't understand it, But again, he's
Speaker 7: going to do what he wants to do.
Speaker 4: Well, fair enough, Mick, I think we certainly have seen
Speaker 4: that as we continually get reporting that advisors and people
Speaker 4: close to Trump are pushing him to talk about policy
Speaker 4: and he thinks the personal attacks are still working for
Speaker 4: him quite well. I want to go back to something
Speaker 4: you were saying though, about how you think Harrison Wall
Speaker 4: should be talking more about the economy as they seem
Speaker 4: to be on an upward trajectory, and how voters feel
Speaker 4: about them handling that issue as of late. Knowing just
Speaker 4: a few minutes from now, we are expected to hear
Speaker 4: from the FED chair Jay Powell, who was set to
Speaker 4: speak at the National Association for Business Economics annual meeting
Speaker 4: in Nashville. The FEDS cut rates, by and large, things
Speaker 4: are still looking like they're holding up, okay, even if
Speaker 4: we're starting to see softening in the labor market, and
Speaker 4: polling consistently shows, including our own with Morning Consult in
Speaker 4: the Swing states, that Harris's economic proposals are among the
Speaker 4: more popular economic proposals between the two candidates with voters.
Speaker 4: Does that mean Donald Trump needs to talk about the
Speaker 4: economy more or pivot to another issue to attack her on?
Speaker 5: Now?
Speaker 7: Now, I think again, if you're advising Trump and he's
Speaker 7: watching his look, I still think the argument is this,
Speaker 7: I was in charge for four years. Okay, she's been
Speaker 7: in charge sort of for four years. Which of those
Speaker 7: four years was better for you? That's the argument, right.
Speaker 7: I don't think anybody cares much about policies. I saw
Speaker 7: some of her summary policies and listen, they're not very deep.
Speaker 7: You know, they're a mile wat in an inch deep.
Speaker 7: They're very high minded, sort of helping the middle class.
Speaker 7: I get that, that's what I expect from folks at
Speaker 7: this point in the election. But I think Trump can
Speaker 7: talk about the economy more. But he doesn't need to
Speaker 7: go into specifics, and certainly doesn't need to be introducing
Speaker 7: things that make his own base scratch their heads, like
Speaker 7: capping interest rates on credit cards. Holy cow, that's a
Speaker 7: gut punch to conservatives like me still voting for him.
Speaker 7: But I mean, you got to wonder what the heck
Speaker 7: is going on inside the campaign when they roll out
Speaker 7: that policy proposal that level of specificity this close to
Speaker 7: the election. So look, look, she's trending in the right
Speaker 7: direction if I'm her. What I'm saying is, look, inflation
Speaker 7: is coming down. It's a true statement. What I really
Speaker 7: think it'd be interesting you talked about Jay Powell is
Speaker 7: just someone ask him, if things are so good, why'd
Speaker 7: you cut fifty points? Fifty basis points? The only two
Speaker 7: times they've done that recently was during the global financial
Speaker 7: crisis and the beginning of COVID. So what did they
Speaker 7: see in the data that prompted them to cut fifty
Speaker 7: basis points? I'm not sure. Maybe somebody's asked that question
Speaker 7: not seeing the answer yet. But if I'm the Harris campaign,
Speaker 7: that worries me because that's what's in there that might
Speaker 7: pop up between now and November. Oh and by the way,
Speaker 7: I think the answer might be this DOC strike that
Speaker 7: might start tomorrow. That could be the October surprise that
Speaker 7: was just sitting out for everybody to see. If that
Speaker 7: leads to supply chain If now in November, that can
Speaker 7: be a problem for the comment party.
Speaker 4: That's an excellent point. Mcmulvaney, former OMB director, former acting
Speaker 4: chief of staff and the Trump White House, co founder
Speaker 4: of the Freedom Caucus, former congressman, thank you as always
Speaker 4: for joining us here on Bloomberg TV and radio. And
Speaker 4: that is an important point, Joe, as we await the
Speaker 4: words of Chairman Powell talk about the economy hanging in
Speaker 4: there for now, inflation being lower, you have a DOCS
Speaker 4: worker strike that potentially could disrupt supply chains, cost freight
Speaker 4: rates to go higher. And of course we're dealing with
Speaker 4: potentially tens of billions of dollars in economic damage from
Speaker 4: Hurricane Helen that just rolled through the southeast YEP.
Speaker 2: It's pretty remarkable. As we mentioned, five I believe billion
Speaker 2: dollars a day was the cost put forth by an
Speaker 2: analyst at JP Morgan Chase. The economic impact cannot be
Speaker 2: ignored here, Kaylee. And if you're looking at Kamala Harris
Speaker 2: as an incumbent. There is inherent political risk here with
Speaker 2: what's likely to happen tomorrow.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Ken
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Speaker 2: We're talking again about a massive potential economic impact here,
Speaker 2: more than a dozen ports collectively handling about half of
Speaker 2: the imports that reach the United States at hand.
Speaker 1: Here.
Speaker 2: Thank you so much, Danny. We'll connect with Danny Berger
Speaker 2: a little bit later on in the broadcast. If you're
Speaker 2: listening to us here on the radio, I think we
Speaker 2: can all agree that that truck behind Danny was going
Speaker 2: in reverse. As we turn our attention to the campaign,
Speaker 2: I mentioned it's all about the hurricane today, and that
Speaker 2: is diverting attention from the presidential campaign from their travel schedules.
Speaker 2: And you're going to be hearing a lot more from
Speaker 2: Donald Trump a little bit later on in Georgia. But
Speaker 2: we got another deluge of polls over the weekend and
Speaker 2: we are kind of drowning in numbers right now. Now
Speaker 2: that gives us an opportunity on this Monday to pull
Speaker 2: up the jet just a little bit and get a
Speaker 2: thirty thousand foot view, and we love doing that with
Speaker 2: Cliff Young, upholster but also a political analyst and president
Speaker 2: of US Public Affairs at ipsoc's with us live from
Speaker 2: our Washington studios with a boltload of new data that
Speaker 2: might really reinforce the idea that not only is the
Speaker 2: economy the number one issue in this campaign. I think
Speaker 2: we've established that with Cliff, but some strides being made
Speaker 2: right now by the Harris campaign and catching up with
Speaker 2: Donald Trump. Cliff Young, welcome back. Let's start broadly here
Speaker 2: in the baseline as we stare down the barrel of
Speaker 2: basically the final month, thirty six days to the election.
Speaker 2: We've established that the economy is going to be the
Speaker 2: number one issue. How are these two candidates doing when
Speaker 2: it comes to trust in handling the economy?
Speaker 11: Yeah, the battle right now is about the framing of
Speaker 11: the economy, what does it mean and what does it
Speaker 11: mean to voters? And the two campaigns are at at
Speaker 11: sort of two different points of the spectrum on that.
Speaker 11: On the one hand, you have Trump and his campaign
Speaker 11: wanting to talk about inflation, wanting to talk about throw
Speaker 11: the bums out because of inflation, a very simple kind
Speaker 11: of contrast, and you have the Harris campaign trying to
Speaker 11: look forward, trying to talk about future economic opportunities for
Speaker 11: all Americans. And this is the dispute today the campaign
Speaker 11: in my mind that when's this framing debate? When's this
Speaker 11: framing dispute will take the White House.
Speaker 2: You have some really interesting numbers here, and it almost
Speaker 2: has to do with the way that you're asking the
Speaker 2: question about the economy. We can get really specific about inflation,
Speaker 2: for instance, or we can just talk about your financial
Speaker 2: well being. You've asked a couple of questions here, Cliff,
Speaker 2: and I'd love for you to walk us through this.
Speaker 2: When looking at things you want in the next president,
Speaker 2: let's be specific about the way you're asking in your poll,
Speaker 2: which of the following is most important to you building
Speaker 2: an economy that gives every American a chance to succeed.
Speaker 2: Twenty one percent chose that number one issue here, and
Speaker 2: it's D plus twenty three in the margin favoring Kamala Harris.
Speaker 2: When you ask the question which of the following is
Speaker 2: most important to you. And in the case of inflation,
Speaker 2: here getting costs and inflation under control comes in at
Speaker 2: seventeen percent. But that's advantage Donald Trump plus thirty three.
Speaker 2: How do you rationalize those two?
Speaker 11: Yeah, two things can can exist in people's head at
Speaker 11: anyone given time. But this goes back to my initial
Speaker 11: point the campaign that the election will be decided upon
Speaker 11: who best frames the issue of the economy. As we
Speaker 11: can see, the number one issue today for Americans is
Speaker 11: the economy written large. If it's framed in the hair
Speaker 11: on the hair side, that you're looking towards the future,
Speaker 11: looking for a greater opportunity for all Americans, she will
Speaker 11: take the election. If Donald Trump is successful and he
Speaker 11: puts it in terms of of change election where inflation
Speaker 11: has really affected negatively Americans, he will take it. And
Speaker 11: the data just reinforces that overall point.
Speaker 2: So with the advantage that we've seen, sort of turning
Speaker 2: to Kamala Harris on this issue, either closing the gap,
Speaker 2: catching up with, or in some cases, topping Donald Trump
Speaker 2: within the margin of error specifically on the issue of
Speaker 2: the economy, then suggests that she's doing a better job
Speaker 2: framing this issue. That's that is your point when it
Speaker 2: comes to messaging to voters.
Speaker 11: Yeah, I would say today the Hairs campaign is much
Speaker 11: more effective at framing the issue of the economy than
Speaker 11: the Trump campaign is. Now. Obviously we have some time
Speaker 11: to go, but at this point, right now, the Hairs
Speaker 11: campaign is much more effective. And I would just add
Speaker 11: to that point, it was because because of the sequence
Speaker 11: of events, the assassination attempt, the historically bad debate by
Speaker 11: and stepping out, that gave a moment for voters to reflect,
Speaker 11: to pause, and to think about who they're going to
Speaker 11: vote for, and Harris and her campaign were much more
Speaker 11: effective at filling that vacuum.
Speaker 2: Okay, so talk to us about the debate tomorrow night.
Speaker 2: Then we've got the running mates. Granted, they probably will
Speaker 2: not have the baffo ratings that we saw the presidential
Speaker 2: candidates at sixty seven million viewers, but they're going to
Speaker 2: have a real opportunity here to talk to a lot
Speaker 2: of Americans, and I suspect that it will involve more
Speaker 2: than being weird and eating house pets when it comes
Speaker 2: to policy. When it comes to the economy, do either
Speaker 2: of the running mates have an opportunity to make a dent.
Speaker 11: Yeah, I would say, I would say perhaps on the margins,
Speaker 11: typically not. But I often look at debates as a
Speaker 11: metaphor for the relative efficacy of each campaign. I'll be
Speaker 11: looking for who is more on message, who is more
Speaker 11: able to hammer home the economy issue, who is more
Speaker 11: able to frame to their advantage the issue of economy
Speaker 11: as laid out in our conversation here. So I'll be
Speaker 11: looking for those things specifically. Whether that has an impact
Speaker 11: on the actual polls themselves, probably not, but it will
Speaker 11: say a lot about the relative efficiency, again, of each campaign.
Speaker 2: What do you make of this opportunity if I can
Speaker 2: call it that, and I'm not trying to sound cold,
Speaker 2: it's an opportunity to succeed or fail if you're a
Speaker 2: presidential candidate dealing with a major natural disaster like we
Speaker 2: have right now in the southeast. Donald Trump's making a
Speaker 2: bee line to Georgia. He's criticizing Kamala Harris for not
Speaker 2: doing the same. But if you don't do this right,
Speaker 2: of course, it can be a detriment to your campaign.
Speaker 2: And I wonder to the extent that it implies competency
Speaker 2: for the candidate, how important.
Speaker 11: This is Yeah, this goes directly to whether a candy
Speaker 11: looks and acts presidential. So both Harris as well as
Speaker 11: Trump have to behave as such, there's really more downside
Speaker 11: than upside when it comes to a hurricane. Indeed, Americans
Speaker 11: people understand that a hurricane's an act of God. No one, individual,
Speaker 11: government or otherwise can stop it. It's about how you
Speaker 11: react to it, and that's what Americans will be looking
Speaker 11: for in their two possible presidential candidates.
Speaker 2: As we spend time with Cliff Young from IPSOS, let's
Speaker 2: get to it now. I'm scrolling through this very impressive
Speaker 2: deck of research that you've given us, our bespoke deck
Speaker 2: from Cliff, and as you get down to one of
Speaker 2: the final slides here there is a headline the day
Speaker 2: after and a mushroom cloud. Cliff, how worried are we
Speaker 2: about accepting the results of this election, the noise and
Speaker 2: the confusion that's going to follow. And I ask you
Speaker 2: that knowing that based on history, we'll probably see Donald
Speaker 2: Trump declare victory early in the night.
Speaker 11: Yeah, that's a great point. And obviously this is something
Speaker 11: at IPSOS we're worried about, and I think the market
Speaker 11: in general is and the public opinion polling is pretty
Speaker 11: clear on the issue. For the most part, across pitical lines.
Speaker 11: A Maakans are willing to accept the results, you know,
Speaker 11: super majority of support high seventies, low eighties, independent of
Speaker 11: political stripe. As I said, however, Republicans are much more
Speaker 11: likely to believe that the results weren't fair. And that's
Speaker 11: sort of the tale of our world today, that we
Speaker 11: have a very divided America, two sides of the fence. See,
Speaker 11: the issue is completely different. But at the very least
Speaker 11: super majority of Americans would accept, or at least they
Speaker 11: say they would accept the results of the election.
Speaker 2: I'll tell you what if it ends up being that Saturday,
Speaker 2: for instance, like it was four years ago. Just in
Speaker 2: our remaining moment, Cliff, how worried are you that people
Speaker 2: have short memories that might not remember that counting mail
Speaker 2: and absentee ballots takes a long time, that some states
Speaker 2: might take days to settle.
Speaker 11: Yeah, the counting and the time it takes to count
Speaker 11: really undermines the credibility. Indeed, America is an outlier compared
Speaker 11: to other democracies in the world that had those counts
Speaker 11: done the same. And so if this draws out too much,
Speaker 11: and indeed it's going to be a very close election
Speaker 11: in my mind, and it probably will. That doesn't help
Speaker 11: the credibility of the outcome. That only can hurt it.
Speaker 2: I always love it when Cliff comes to hang out
Speaker 2: and spend some time with great research here, Cliff, thank
Speaker 2: you so much. Cliff Young at ipsos with us live
Speaker 2: from Washington on the fastest show in politics. He's been
Speaker 2: a great voice of authority on this campaign from the beginning.
Speaker 1: We've got a month ago here.
Speaker 2: Thank you, Cliff. Thanks for listening to the Balance of
Speaker 2: Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already,
Speaker 2: at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts, and
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Speaker 2: at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.