1 00:00:02,920 --> 00:00:10,600 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,640 --> 00:00:14,560 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at 3 00:00:14,560 --> 00:00:17,759 Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Appocarplay, and then Rounoro with the Bloomberg 4 00:00:17,800 --> 00:00:21,200 Speaker 1: Business app Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, 5 00:00:21,400 --> 00:00:25,320 Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,880 --> 00:00:28,520 Speaker 2: Two very important headlines across the terminal since we've come 7 00:00:28,560 --> 00:00:31,680 Speaker 2: on the air at noon today, the Pentagon deploying a 8 00:00:31,720 --> 00:00:35,200 Speaker 2: few thousand, as they term it, few thousand more forces 9 00:00:35,680 --> 00:00:39,159 Speaker 2: to the Mid East, saying as well that they do 10 00:00:39,280 --> 00:00:43,879 Speaker 2: believe that a possible ground incursion by Israel into Lebanon 11 00:00:44,320 --> 00:00:47,760 Speaker 2: is imminent. Those two lines coming from a spokesperson at 12 00:00:47,760 --> 00:00:50,760 Speaker 2: the Pentagon earlier today. And we're glad to have Natasha 13 00:00:50,840 --> 00:00:53,600 Speaker 2: Hall back with a senior fellow with the Middle East 14 00:00:53,600 --> 00:00:59,040 Speaker 2: Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies CSIS. Natasha, 15 00:00:59,120 --> 00:01:01,960 Speaker 2: welcome back. How important are the next twenty four hours 16 00:01:01,960 --> 00:01:05,000 Speaker 2: here to determining the next phase and what appears to 17 00:01:05,000 --> 00:01:05,760 Speaker 2: be a wider war. 18 00:01:07,520 --> 00:01:09,600 Speaker 3: I would say unprecedented, but I feel like we've been 19 00:01:09,720 --> 00:01:11,479 Speaker 3: using that word a little too much in the past 20 00:01:11,560 --> 00:01:16,360 Speaker 3: few months. We've just seen unprecedented attacks from Israel on Lebanon, 21 00:01:16,840 --> 00:01:20,840 Speaker 3: including the assassination of longtime leader Caasan nos RelA in 22 00:01:20,880 --> 00:01:25,240 Speaker 3: just the past forty eight hours, and now intelligence coming 23 00:01:25,280 --> 00:01:30,039 Speaker 3: in that Israeli is launching ground incursions into Lebanon, and 24 00:01:30,160 --> 00:01:31,959 Speaker 3: remains to be seen if this will be part of 25 00:01:31,959 --> 00:01:36,319 Speaker 3: a larger ground invasion and really what the end end 26 00:01:36,319 --> 00:01:39,039 Speaker 3: of game is for this. Does it mean occupation of 27 00:01:39,080 --> 00:01:44,480 Speaker 3: southern Lebanon as Israel has done before, So very very 28 00:01:44,520 --> 00:01:48,200 Speaker 3: scary times up ahead, but I suspect that they will 29 00:01:48,200 --> 00:01:51,360 Speaker 3: continue for the foreseeable future, and not just the next 30 00:01:51,520 --> 00:01:57,160 Speaker 3: twenty four hours as Israel's adversary sort of recuperate and 31 00:01:57,760 --> 00:02:01,880 Speaker 3: rethink their strategy, as they've suffered enormous losses in the 32 00:02:01,880 --> 00:02:02,880 Speaker 3: past couple of weeks. 33 00:02:04,240 --> 00:02:07,120 Speaker 4: Well to that exact point, Natasha, it's not just Anzurala 34 00:02:07,200 --> 00:02:10,160 Speaker 4: that has been killed, but a number of top commanders 35 00:02:10,160 --> 00:02:13,000 Speaker 4: for Hesbela. Obviously, we saw the explosions earlier this month 36 00:02:13,040 --> 00:02:15,240 Speaker 4: that took out waki, takies and pagers, things that they 37 00:02:15,240 --> 00:02:18,919 Speaker 4: were using to communicate how capable is hesbola A fighting 38 00:02:18,960 --> 00:02:23,239 Speaker 4: off a potential ground invasion that Israel may choose to pursue, 39 00:02:23,880 --> 00:02:27,119 Speaker 4: or are they likely to be fortified or or more 40 00:02:27,160 --> 00:02:30,360 Speaker 4: willing to go to drastic measures to retaliate because they've 41 00:02:30,360 --> 00:02:31,600 Speaker 4: taken such heavy losses. 42 00:02:32,919 --> 00:02:35,000 Speaker 3: There's the short term game and then there's the long 43 00:02:35,120 --> 00:02:38,360 Speaker 3: term game here. So I think that Hezbolah has a 44 00:02:38,360 --> 00:02:42,440 Speaker 3: lot of territory to recuperate on, including in Syria where 45 00:02:42,440 --> 00:02:46,040 Speaker 3: they have forces as well, But in the near term 46 00:02:46,120 --> 00:02:48,480 Speaker 3: it will be very difficult for them to mount an 47 00:02:48,520 --> 00:02:52,400 Speaker 3: attack on Israel. That said, if Israel decides to actually 48 00:02:52,480 --> 00:02:55,799 Speaker 3: mount an invasion into Lebanon, they will be mounting an 49 00:02:55,800 --> 00:02:59,239 Speaker 3: invasion into a country that Hasbulah has had about eighteen 50 00:02:59,280 --> 00:03:02,720 Speaker 3: years to prepare for. So we're talking about tunnel networks, 51 00:03:03,360 --> 00:03:07,239 Speaker 3: we're talking about still tens of thousands of troops, and frankly, 52 00:03:07,440 --> 00:03:12,240 Speaker 3: Israel's actions in the past year have created a really 53 00:03:12,320 --> 00:03:15,480 Speaker 3: limitless supply of soldiers both in the region and beyond. 54 00:03:16,200 --> 00:03:18,400 Speaker 3: So again I think it's more than the next twenty 55 00:03:18,400 --> 00:03:22,160 Speaker 3: four hours that were witnessing very sort of scary escalation. 56 00:03:22,720 --> 00:03:24,520 Speaker 2: Sure sounds like it. And when we hear from the 57 00:03:24,560 --> 00:03:27,720 Speaker 2: Pentagon Natasha that we're deploying what they call a few 58 00:03:27,800 --> 00:03:32,160 Speaker 2: thousand more forces in the Mideast, is this about force 59 00:03:32,240 --> 00:03:35,600 Speaker 2: protection for Israel. Are we concerned about this escalating to 60 00:03:35,600 --> 00:03:39,000 Speaker 2: the point where we're going to have Americans actively involved 61 00:03:39,000 --> 00:03:41,360 Speaker 2: in helping to defend Israel, whether it be in the 62 00:03:41,400 --> 00:03:45,440 Speaker 2: air or on the ground. And who are these forces? 63 00:03:45,480 --> 00:03:46,360 Speaker 2: What are they going for? 64 00:03:47,600 --> 00:03:50,160 Speaker 3: Well, it's not just these thousands of forces. There's two 65 00:03:50,240 --> 00:03:52,840 Speaker 3: carrier strike groups that one in the Mediterranean and one 66 00:03:52,840 --> 00:03:57,320 Speaker 3: in the Red Sea. So this is a very yes. 67 00:03:57,960 --> 00:04:01,880 Speaker 3: So there's overwhelming force posture on behalf of the United States. 68 00:04:01,920 --> 00:04:04,360 Speaker 3: I am guessing that the United States wants to avoid 69 00:04:04,440 --> 00:04:09,880 Speaker 3: any kind of direct alliance with Israel on this, but 70 00:04:09,920 --> 00:04:14,000 Speaker 3: will provide them with the necessary weapons, including the bomb 71 00:04:14,080 --> 00:04:17,680 Speaker 3: that took out Hassan Nasralla just a couple of days ago. 72 00:04:17,880 --> 00:04:21,080 Speaker 3: So I think that the United States wants to avoid 73 00:04:21,120 --> 00:04:23,640 Speaker 3: an escalation in which they will have to take part 74 00:04:23,680 --> 00:04:26,360 Speaker 3: a direct part in as Iran has over the past 75 00:04:26,400 --> 00:04:29,039 Speaker 3: few months. But it remains to be seen if they 76 00:04:29,080 --> 00:04:32,800 Speaker 3: will be dragged into a more full fledged war. But 77 00:04:32,839 --> 00:04:36,320 Speaker 3: I suspect that they will talk to US citizens on 78 00:04:36,360 --> 00:04:41,200 Speaker 3: the ground throughout the region to evacuate and try to 79 00:04:41,240 --> 00:04:45,760 Speaker 3: defend assets throughout the region as well. 80 00:04:45,880 --> 00:04:46,040 Speaker 5: Well. 81 00:04:46,080 --> 00:04:48,640 Speaker 4: We heard President Biden he was asked about this When 82 00:04:48,680 --> 00:04:51,440 Speaker 4: speaking from the White House earlier today, he was asked 83 00:04:51,640 --> 00:04:54,120 Speaker 4: if he was aware of and comfortable with Israel's plan 84 00:04:54,160 --> 00:04:57,120 Speaker 4: for a limited ground invasion of Lebanon. He said, I'm 85 00:04:57,160 --> 00:04:59,680 Speaker 4: more aware than you might know, and I'm comfortable with 86 00:04:59,800 --> 00:05:04,440 Speaker 4: them stopping. We should have a ceasefire. Now. Do you 87 00:05:04,480 --> 00:05:07,120 Speaker 4: see any incentive for Israel to agree to a short 88 00:05:07,200 --> 00:05:09,880 Speaker 4: term ceasefire at this point or for Hesbola to do 89 00:05:09,960 --> 00:05:10,320 Speaker 4: the same. 90 00:05:12,000 --> 00:05:15,599 Speaker 3: We've been hearing the same thing from the White House 91 00:05:15,680 --> 00:05:20,080 Speaker 3: for months now on Gaza and on Lebanon, and supposedly 92 00:05:20,200 --> 00:05:23,880 Speaker 3: US diplomats have been working tires tirelessly for a ceasefire 93 00:05:24,000 --> 00:05:28,200 Speaker 3: on both fronts for months now, but we also haven't 94 00:05:28,240 --> 00:05:31,400 Speaker 3: seen any kind of tangible leverage being used with Israel 95 00:05:31,720 --> 00:05:34,560 Speaker 3: to get to that ceasefire. And it looks like we've 96 00:05:34,600 --> 00:05:38,320 Speaker 3: just seen Israel escalate more and more each day, each hour, 97 00:05:39,320 --> 00:05:42,760 Speaker 3: but very little on the US side to really curb 98 00:05:42,839 --> 00:05:46,480 Speaker 3: or rein in Israel. In fact, as you mentioned, thousands 99 00:05:46,520 --> 00:05:52,080 Speaker 3: more troops being deployed carrier strike groups. It looks like 100 00:05:52,160 --> 00:05:56,320 Speaker 3: they're defending Israel, that this is their war essentially, and 101 00:05:56,400 --> 00:06:00,000 Speaker 3: so I think it remains to be seen if Israel 102 00:06:00,200 --> 00:06:02,560 Speaker 3: themselves will take the decision and to launch a full 103 00:06:02,600 --> 00:06:06,719 Speaker 3: scale ground invasion of Lebanon. But it does not seem 104 00:06:06,760 --> 00:06:09,719 Speaker 3: as though the United States is willing to really reign 105 00:06:09,800 --> 00:06:14,119 Speaker 3: in Israeli actions at this time or any time prior. 106 00:06:14,400 --> 00:06:18,160 Speaker 2: Well, you just answered my next question. As the administration 107 00:06:18,480 --> 00:06:22,480 Speaker 2: attempts to influence the outcome here, Natasha, I'm curious as 108 00:06:22,520 --> 00:06:28,479 Speaker 2: well about the day after Lebanon is not Gaza, and 109 00:06:28,560 --> 00:06:31,120 Speaker 2: I wonder if Israel has a plan, if it were 110 00:06:31,160 --> 00:06:34,599 Speaker 2: in fact to destroy or decimate, somehow eliminate Hesbela, a 111 00:06:34,640 --> 00:06:37,680 Speaker 2: plan to deal with the nation that would be left over. 112 00:06:39,440 --> 00:06:44,440 Speaker 3: I mean, what we've been seeing is decimated countries. Lebanon, Yemen, 113 00:06:44,600 --> 00:06:47,640 Speaker 3: the port in Yemen was recently attacked also by Israel, 114 00:06:47,839 --> 00:06:52,120 Speaker 3: and Gaza. These are not territories that can withstand another 115 00:06:52,240 --> 00:06:56,159 Speaker 3: humanitarian crisis or another conflict on top of everything else. 116 00:06:57,120 --> 00:06:59,280 Speaker 3: And it doesn't really seem like there's a day after 117 00:06:59,400 --> 00:07:03,520 Speaker 3: plan for any of them. We've seen Israel and US 118 00:07:03,560 --> 00:07:08,599 Speaker 3: officials talk about how Lebanese politicians could take this moment 119 00:07:08,640 --> 00:07:13,000 Speaker 3: of weakness amongst Hesbala leaders to really take the helm 120 00:07:13,160 --> 00:07:16,320 Speaker 3: in the Lebanese government for the first time in years 121 00:07:16,400 --> 00:07:19,280 Speaker 3: or decades, but it remains to be seen how that 122 00:07:19,360 --> 00:07:23,320 Speaker 3: plan actually plays out. Hesbala is still the most powerful 123 00:07:23,320 --> 00:07:27,400 Speaker 3: force on the ground, and they will assassinate leaders that 124 00:07:27,440 --> 00:07:29,360 Speaker 3: go against them, and they've been known to do so 125 00:07:29,440 --> 00:07:33,160 Speaker 3: in the past. So I think just calling on Lebanese 126 00:07:33,280 --> 00:07:35,440 Speaker 3: leaders to stand up to Hesbalah is not going to 127 00:07:35,480 --> 00:07:38,000 Speaker 3: be enough for a day after and we've already seen 128 00:07:38,080 --> 00:07:41,480 Speaker 3: hundreds of thousands of people internally displaced, some of whom 129 00:07:41,480 --> 00:07:47,120 Speaker 3: are actually going into war torn Syria right now for refuge. 130 00:07:47,640 --> 00:07:49,800 Speaker 4: Natasha. We have less than a minute left, But what 131 00:07:49,840 --> 00:07:52,840 Speaker 4: do you expect Iran to do next? 132 00:07:54,960 --> 00:07:58,280 Speaker 3: Iran has been very disappointing, I would say, probably for 133 00:07:58,840 --> 00:08:02,600 Speaker 3: Hesbalah at this time and many of its constituents. We 134 00:08:02,680 --> 00:08:05,760 Speaker 3: have not seen any kind of real retaliation for many 135 00:08:05,800 --> 00:08:08,440 Speaker 3: of the attacks that have taken place over the past 136 00:08:08,520 --> 00:08:12,160 Speaker 3: few weeks and months, and I suspect that Iranian leaders 137 00:08:12,280 --> 00:08:16,720 Speaker 3: are sort of scared to mount any kind of major retaliation. 138 00:08:17,400 --> 00:08:21,640 Speaker 3: That said, there is a fear that if proxy militias 139 00:08:22,200 --> 00:08:25,960 Speaker 3: are so weakened that Iran will look to turns from 140 00:08:26,000 --> 00:08:31,120 Speaker 3: other means like the nuclear like their nuclear weapons arsenal. 141 00:08:32,559 --> 00:08:35,240 Speaker 4: Frightening to consider Natasha, thank you so much for joining us. 142 00:08:35,280 --> 00:08:37,960 Speaker 4: Natasha Hall, Senior Fellow with the Middle East Program at 143 00:08:38,000 --> 00:08:41,040 Speaker 4: the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Thank you so much. 144 00:08:41,080 --> 00:08:42,960 Speaker 4: As we cast our eyes abroad, but we'll look here 145 00:08:43,000 --> 00:08:46,760 Speaker 4: at home next at the aftermath of Hurricane Helene. Stay 146 00:08:46,800 --> 00:08:51,400 Speaker 4: with us on Bloomberg TV and radio. 147 00:08:52,360 --> 00:08:55,760 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens 148 00:08:55,880 --> 00:08:58,440 Speaker 1: just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appo car. 149 00:08:58,400 --> 00:09:00,839 Speaker 5: Play and then Rodoo with the Bloom's Our Business Ad. 150 00:09:01,000 --> 00:09:03,840 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 151 00:09:03,880 --> 00:09:09,600 Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 152 00:09:10,440 --> 00:09:13,600 Speaker 2: I'm Joe Matthew at Bloomberg World Headquarters in New York. 153 00:09:13,679 --> 00:09:16,160 Speaker 2: Kaylee Lines in Washington, d C. Will both be here 154 00:09:16,160 --> 00:09:19,079 Speaker 2: tomorrow for the vice presidential debate, and we'll be talking 155 00:09:19,120 --> 00:09:21,520 Speaker 2: more about that, of course, as we get a bit closer. 156 00:09:22,160 --> 00:09:26,120 Speaker 2: With of course, a massive storm on our hands that 157 00:09:26,200 --> 00:09:30,560 Speaker 2: has left massive destruction. Helene, it appears will be on 158 00:09:30,600 --> 00:09:34,199 Speaker 2: the mount rushmore of severe storms, and I don't mean 159 00:09:34,240 --> 00:09:37,040 Speaker 2: that in a good way, joining Katrina and Sandy the 160 00:09:37,160 --> 00:09:42,160 Speaker 2: top five most damaging storms, with Aciweather now estimating losses 161 00:09:42,160 --> 00:09:45,200 Speaker 2: at one hundred and forty five to one hundred and 162 00:09:45,360 --> 00:09:48,599 Speaker 2: sixty billion dollars. Kaylee, I suspect this is going to 163 00:09:48,679 --> 00:09:50,760 Speaker 2: come up at the debate tomorrow night. It's of course 164 00:09:50,800 --> 00:09:56,280 Speaker 2: impacting the campaign trail. Donald Trump is in Georgia today. 165 00:09:56,280 --> 00:09:59,600 Speaker 4: Yeah, he is. He will be in Valdst Valdusta, Georgia, 166 00:10:00,120 --> 00:10:02,640 Speaker 4: and he of course has criticized both Joe Biden and 167 00:10:02,640 --> 00:10:05,320 Speaker 4: Comba Harris for not being present in Washington while the 168 00:10:05,360 --> 00:10:08,559 Speaker 4: storm and as aftermath were ongoing over the last weekend. 169 00:10:09,440 --> 00:10:12,520 Speaker 4: Joe Biden was in Delaware, Harris was in California. Though 170 00:10:12,520 --> 00:10:14,280 Speaker 4: both have said when it is not going to be 171 00:10:14,400 --> 00:10:17,080 Speaker 4: disruptive to make a visit to affected areas, they do 172 00:10:17,160 --> 00:10:18,480 Speaker 4: intend to do so later this week. 173 00:10:18,600 --> 00:10:21,520 Speaker 2: Joe, Well, i'll tell you what the scenes are horrifying 174 00:10:21,559 --> 00:10:24,360 Speaker 2: with the level of damage, destruction and death that we've 175 00:10:24,360 --> 00:10:28,560 Speaker 2: seen in Bloomberg's. Lord Rosenthal is watching this for us 176 00:10:28,600 --> 00:10:31,240 Speaker 2: and joins me here in New York with a little 177 00:10:31,240 --> 00:10:33,640 Speaker 2: bit more information before we bring in our panel for 178 00:10:33,679 --> 00:10:36,480 Speaker 2: the political implications here. Lauren, it's great to see you. 179 00:10:36,520 --> 00:10:38,480 Speaker 2: Thank you for joining when we're talking about the top 180 00:10:38,520 --> 00:10:42,000 Speaker 2: five storms that really puts this in perspective, were we prepared? 181 00:10:43,000 --> 00:10:45,240 Speaker 6: I would say that a few days in advance we 182 00:10:45,559 --> 00:10:48,200 Speaker 6: started to get warning from forecasters that this would likely 183 00:10:48,280 --> 00:10:51,720 Speaker 6: be a very large and very powerful storm. But I 184 00:10:51,720 --> 00:10:54,880 Speaker 6: think that communities far inland in the Carolinas and southern 185 00:10:54,880 --> 00:10:57,840 Speaker 6: Apalachian Mountains were surprised by how much rain they got, 186 00:10:58,200 --> 00:11:00,360 Speaker 6: and that's really responsible for a lot of the day damage. 187 00:11:02,000 --> 00:11:05,120 Speaker 4: Well, yeah, can you quantify the damage and destruction and 188 00:11:05,160 --> 00:11:08,800 Speaker 4: frankly loss of life that we have seen to this point, Lauren, 189 00:11:08,840 --> 00:11:12,840 Speaker 4: Over one hundred dead, still hundreds unaccounted for, I understand. 190 00:11:12,840 --> 00:11:15,640 Speaker 4: And what kind of economic losses realistically are we looking 191 00:11:15,679 --> 00:11:16,000 Speaker 4: at here? 192 00:11:16,240 --> 00:11:19,120 Speaker 6: Sure, a lot of homes and businesses are gone. I 193 00:11:19,160 --> 00:11:22,480 Speaker 6: think as the waters received, rescuers are starting to get 194 00:11:22,480 --> 00:11:24,920 Speaker 6: a sense of how many people are still unaccounted for, 195 00:11:25,360 --> 00:11:27,600 Speaker 6: and the scope of the damage is becoming clear as well. 196 00:11:27,640 --> 00:11:31,040 Speaker 6: There's been a lot of water treatment facilities lost, so 197 00:11:31,120 --> 00:11:33,800 Speaker 6: folks are struggling to get access to clean drinking water. 198 00:11:34,880 --> 00:11:37,960 Speaker 6: You know, lots of bridges in this really mountainous region, 199 00:11:38,080 --> 00:11:41,040 Speaker 6: crisscrossed by tiny streams and rivers. All of that will 200 00:11:41,120 --> 00:11:42,080 Speaker 6: need to be replaced. 201 00:11:42,200 --> 00:11:44,199 Speaker 2: You put your finger on something really important though, it's 202 00:11:44,240 --> 00:11:48,679 Speaker 2: not just a matter of clearing out damage, moving tree 203 00:11:48,720 --> 00:11:51,520 Speaker 2: limbs and so forth. Clean water is something we're going 204 00:11:51,559 --> 00:11:53,120 Speaker 2: to be hearing a lot more about as we go 205 00:11:53,200 --> 00:11:54,440 Speaker 2: deeper into this week, isn't it. 206 00:11:54,559 --> 00:11:55,319 Speaker 7: I think that's right. 207 00:11:56,000 --> 00:11:59,840 Speaker 6: With road access washed out or you know, highways just 208 00:12:00,320 --> 00:12:03,600 Speaker 6: still inaccessible in underwater in some places, rescuers are trying 209 00:12:03,600 --> 00:12:04,880 Speaker 6: to bring in supplies. 210 00:12:04,480 --> 00:12:08,520 Speaker 4: By air, and of course Joe and I will be 211 00:12:08,559 --> 00:12:12,000 Speaker 4: actually speaking with the Transportation Secretary Pete boota judge about 212 00:12:12,040 --> 00:12:14,520 Speaker 4: this on the later edition of Balance of Power at 213 00:12:14,520 --> 00:12:17,000 Speaker 4: five pm Eastern time. And of course, as we consider 214 00:12:17,080 --> 00:12:19,959 Speaker 4: how long it may take Lauren to recover from this 215 00:12:20,040 --> 00:12:24,600 Speaker 4: particular storm, hurricane season is not yet over. Are there 216 00:12:24,840 --> 00:12:27,920 Speaker 4: potentially more storms that could come and hit these communities? 217 00:12:28,320 --> 00:12:29,640 Speaker 4: Once again, I. 218 00:12:29,600 --> 00:12:32,120 Speaker 6: Think, unfortunately that's not out of the question. We're heading 219 00:12:32,120 --> 00:12:35,960 Speaker 6: into what's historically a very busy period in the hurricane season. 220 00:12:36,559 --> 00:12:36,920 Speaker 7: Right now. 221 00:12:36,960 --> 00:12:40,320 Speaker 6: Forecasters at the US National Hurricane Center are tracking three 222 00:12:40,360 --> 00:12:44,280 Speaker 6: different storms or disturbances in the Atlantic. At least one 223 00:12:44,320 --> 00:12:47,600 Speaker 6: of them, forecasters said today has the potential to become 224 00:12:47,600 --> 00:12:51,440 Speaker 6: another very large and powerful storm, So that is definitely 225 00:12:51,440 --> 00:12:52,480 Speaker 6: something worth keeping an eye on. 226 00:12:54,040 --> 00:12:57,120 Speaker 4: Absolutely all right, Lauren Rosenthal, a weather reporter for us 227 00:12:57,160 --> 00:12:59,880 Speaker 4: here at Bloomberg, thank you so much. Now, of course, 228 00:13:00,040 --> 00:13:02,480 Speaker 4: we did hear from President Biden at the White House 229 00:13:02,520 --> 00:13:06,600 Speaker 4: earlier today addressing this storm and its aftermath, talking about 230 00:13:06,600 --> 00:13:09,480 Speaker 4: how he might request supplemental funding from Congress. Here was 231 00:13:09,520 --> 00:13:10,400 Speaker 4: the President earlier. 232 00:13:10,720 --> 00:13:14,640 Speaker 8: I quickly approved requests from governors of Florida, North Carolina, 233 00:13:14,800 --> 00:13:19,560 Speaker 8: South Carolina, Tennessee, Georgia, and Virginia and Alabama for an 234 00:13:19,559 --> 00:13:24,079 Speaker 8: emergency declaration, and I approved additional requests for the governors 235 00:13:24,120 --> 00:13:28,080 Speaker 8: of North Carolina, Florida, South Carolina and for a disaster 236 00:13:28,240 --> 00:13:33,800 Speaker 8: declaration to pay for debris removal, provide financial assistance directly 237 00:13:34,000 --> 00:13:35,240 Speaker 8: directly to survivors. 238 00:13:37,200 --> 00:13:39,720 Speaker 4: And of course, the President also said, as we mentioned earlier, 239 00:13:39,760 --> 00:13:42,720 Speaker 4: he does intend to visit affected areas later on this week, 240 00:13:42,760 --> 00:13:45,440 Speaker 4: when it will no longer be disruptive to do so. 241 00:13:45,440 --> 00:13:45,520 Speaker 3: So. 242 00:13:45,600 --> 00:13:47,959 Speaker 4: On that note, we assemble now our political panel, Genie 243 00:13:47,960 --> 00:13:50,360 Speaker 4: shan Zeno, senior Democracy fellow with the Center for the 244 00:13:50,360 --> 00:13:53,080 Speaker 4: Study of the Presidency and Congress, and Rick Davis Stone 245 00:13:53,120 --> 00:13:56,640 Speaker 4: Court Capital partner, both of them Bloomberg Politics contributors. Rick, 246 00:13:56,760 --> 00:13:58,680 Speaker 4: just to begin with you, as it's not just Biden, 247 00:13:58,720 --> 00:14:01,600 Speaker 4: but potentially Harris that will make a visit to affected 248 00:14:01,600 --> 00:14:03,880 Speaker 4: areas in the coming days, when Donald Trump is doing 249 00:14:03,920 --> 00:14:08,199 Speaker 4: so today in Georgia. How should we consider the optics 250 00:14:08,240 --> 00:14:10,800 Speaker 4: of this, of going versus not going, of making any 251 00:14:10,840 --> 00:14:13,000 Speaker 4: of this political at all when so many lives have 252 00:14:13,080 --> 00:14:14,040 Speaker 4: been affected. 253 00:14:15,559 --> 00:14:18,920 Speaker 9: Yeah, this is always a supercharged period of time. We've 254 00:14:19,040 --> 00:14:25,240 Speaker 9: experienced these kinds of natural disasters during political campaigns and 255 00:14:25,640 --> 00:14:29,320 Speaker 9: there's no good roadmap that tells you do these things 256 00:14:29,360 --> 00:14:31,840 Speaker 9: and it's a safe harbor. Nobody should be trying to 257 00:14:31,880 --> 00:14:36,880 Speaker 9: take advantage politically of a natural disaster, but they will 258 00:14:36,880 --> 00:14:40,720 Speaker 9: be punished if they don't seem responsive enough. We all 259 00:14:40,760 --> 00:14:45,320 Speaker 9: remember George W. Bush flying over the aftermath of the 260 00:14:45,400 --> 00:14:51,000 Speaker 9: hurricane in Louisiana, looking disconnected from it. So there is 261 00:14:51,040 --> 00:14:55,000 Speaker 9: a timetable. I think that the President and Vice President 262 00:14:55,000 --> 00:14:58,240 Speaker 9: Harris should be very respectful of the teams on the 263 00:14:58,280 --> 00:15:01,880 Speaker 9: ground trying to recover, but also understand that the American 264 00:15:02,000 --> 00:15:04,920 Speaker 9: public wants to see them on the ground. They want 265 00:15:04,960 --> 00:15:09,000 Speaker 9: to see that the nation's leaders understand the importance of 266 00:15:09,040 --> 00:15:12,640 Speaker 9: this historic storm killing over one hundred and fifteen people, 267 00:15:13,480 --> 00:15:17,000 Speaker 9: devastating communities Inland. Very unusual for a hurricane like this, 268 00:15:17,240 --> 00:15:21,960 Speaker 9: and communities that are actually involved in voting right now 269 00:15:22,080 --> 00:15:24,760 Speaker 9: are and two of the three states that were most 270 00:15:24,800 --> 00:15:29,520 Speaker 9: affected are swing states in this election. So this is hypersensitive, 271 00:15:30,120 --> 00:15:33,160 Speaker 9: and I think that I would suspect that the White 272 00:15:33,160 --> 00:15:35,320 Speaker 9: House is trying to pay as much attention to this 273 00:15:35,360 --> 00:15:36,880 Speaker 9: as any other issue in the world. 274 00:15:36,920 --> 00:15:39,080 Speaker 2: Well, it's not lost on us, indeed, Rick, that this 275 00:15:39,160 --> 00:15:42,520 Speaker 2: storm landed on a couple of critical swing states and 276 00:15:42,560 --> 00:15:44,880 Speaker 2: Donald Trump is in one of them today. In the 277 00:15:44,920 --> 00:15:48,600 Speaker 2: case of Georgia, he's accusing Kamala Harris of sleeping. I 278 00:15:48,600 --> 00:15:50,480 Speaker 2: believe it was Joe Biden sleeping on the beach. 279 00:15:50,520 --> 00:15:50,840 Speaker 1: He said. 280 00:15:50,880 --> 00:15:53,880 Speaker 2: Kamala Harris should have gone to North Carolina instead went 281 00:15:53,960 --> 00:15:59,480 Speaker 2: to Washington. The local officials in these areas, specifically in 282 00:15:59,720 --> 00:16:04,160 Speaker 2: North Carolina Genie, have made clear, don't come to Ashville. 283 00:16:04,640 --> 00:16:06,560 Speaker 2: We have too much on our hands right now and 284 00:16:07,160 --> 00:16:11,480 Speaker 2: a visit of this sort would be logistically extremely challenging. 285 00:16:11,520 --> 00:16:14,400 Speaker 2: But Rick makes a great point. They're voting in these 286 00:16:14,440 --> 00:16:17,840 Speaker 2: states right now, and people do often want to see 287 00:16:17,880 --> 00:16:21,120 Speaker 2: their leaders in action. Sha Kamala Harris gas up the 288 00:16:21,200 --> 00:16:21,800 Speaker 2: jet and go. 289 00:16:23,200 --> 00:16:27,400 Speaker 10: No, she should not go until local officials. State officials 290 00:16:27,480 --> 00:16:31,120 Speaker 10: say that she's not going to disrupt the very important 291 00:16:31,400 --> 00:16:33,600 Speaker 10: area in which they are working now, which is to 292 00:16:33,640 --> 00:16:37,200 Speaker 10: get people clean food, clean clean water, food, and make 293 00:16:37,240 --> 00:16:39,840 Speaker 10: sure they're safe. But can we just take a step 294 00:16:39,840 --> 00:16:43,360 Speaker 10: back a minute and say, last week was Climate change 295 00:16:43,360 --> 00:16:46,000 Speaker 10: Week in New York City, and what do we have. 296 00:16:46,120 --> 00:16:48,880 Speaker 10: We have Donald Trump out on the campaign trail this 297 00:16:49,000 --> 00:16:53,240 Speaker 10: weekend calling climate change a hoax. We have him at 298 00:16:53,280 --> 00:16:56,520 Speaker 10: the last debate calling climate change a hoak, and this 299 00:16:56,640 --> 00:17:00,960 Speaker 10: weekend the biggest scam on Earth. And yet any scientists 300 00:17:01,040 --> 00:17:04,520 Speaker 10: will tell you that climate change is the reason we 301 00:17:04,560 --> 00:17:07,760 Speaker 10: are seeing the storms to this degree, this devastating, this 302 00:17:07,920 --> 00:17:10,560 Speaker 10: loss of life. And Kamala Harris, by the way, is 303 00:17:10,600 --> 00:17:13,320 Speaker 10: not far behind. While she agrees there's climate change, she 304 00:17:13,440 --> 00:17:16,360 Speaker 10: steps up in the last debate and supports fracking. So 305 00:17:16,400 --> 00:17:19,359 Speaker 10: the reality is we need as a nation to listen 306 00:17:19,440 --> 00:17:22,400 Speaker 10: to the scientists and experts who tell us that this 307 00:17:22,680 --> 00:17:25,960 Speaker 10: is a threat to humanity, a threat to the planet. 308 00:17:26,200 --> 00:17:29,080 Speaker 10: When we get warmer in our climate and the waters, 309 00:17:29,119 --> 00:17:32,240 Speaker 10: there is no going back. And that's where we are 310 00:17:32,320 --> 00:17:35,720 Speaker 10: at this point. So I think, you know, politics aside 311 00:17:35,760 --> 00:17:37,680 Speaker 10: on all of this. It's sort of a pox on 312 00:17:37,760 --> 00:17:40,879 Speaker 10: all of their houses. Let's get real on the issue 313 00:17:40,920 --> 00:17:43,639 Speaker 10: that's affecting all of us and will affect our children 314 00:17:43,680 --> 00:17:47,439 Speaker 10: and our grandchildren, our planets, which is climate change. And 315 00:17:47,480 --> 00:17:50,760 Speaker 10: we need to take the threat from the experts very 316 00:17:50,840 --> 00:17:54,160 Speaker 10: very seriously. And neither side is doing that right now 317 00:17:54,200 --> 00:17:55,680 Speaker 10: to the degree they should. 318 00:17:57,080 --> 00:17:57,320 Speaker 3: Well. 319 00:17:57,320 --> 00:17:59,240 Speaker 4: And it has been pointed out in the last several 320 00:17:59,320 --> 00:18:02,800 Speaker 4: days that Project twenty twenty five would call for the 321 00:18:02,840 --> 00:18:07,280 Speaker 4: downsizing of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAH, which 322 00:18:07,280 --> 00:18:09,919 Speaker 4: of course is a tracker of these storms. We should know. 323 00:18:09,960 --> 00:18:12,520 Speaker 4: Donald Trump has made it very clear that he has 324 00:18:12,600 --> 00:18:15,000 Speaker 4: tried to distance himself from Project twenty twenty five, but 325 00:18:15,040 --> 00:18:17,440 Speaker 4: that has been a point of discussion this week. There's 326 00:18:17,480 --> 00:18:20,280 Speaker 4: another element to this as well, and President Biden did 327 00:18:20,280 --> 00:18:21,879 Speaker 4: speak to this at the White House when he was 328 00:18:21,920 --> 00:18:25,200 Speaker 4: asked about a supplemental funding request of Congress. He was asked, 329 00:18:25,240 --> 00:18:27,119 Speaker 4: are you going to need to call them back for 330 00:18:27,200 --> 00:18:30,320 Speaker 4: a special session, because Genie, the lawmakers who have the 331 00:18:30,359 --> 00:18:32,640 Speaker 4: power to secure more funding for the areas that need 332 00:18:32,680 --> 00:18:35,280 Speaker 4: it aren't planning to be back in Washington until after 333 00:18:35,320 --> 00:18:38,879 Speaker 4: the election in mid November. Those are members who are 334 00:18:38,920 --> 00:18:42,880 Speaker 4: running races as well trying to win them of their own. 335 00:18:42,920 --> 00:18:44,840 Speaker 4: How does that look to your constituents if you aren't 336 00:18:44,840 --> 00:18:47,080 Speaker 4: even in town to do the important work of helping 337 00:18:47,600 --> 00:18:51,240 Speaker 4: areas recover from a devastation of a natural disaster. 338 00:18:52,440 --> 00:18:54,199 Speaker 10: Yeah, you know, I think they may have to be 339 00:18:54,280 --> 00:18:57,320 Speaker 10: called back to do that, and I think representatives would 340 00:18:57,359 --> 00:19:00,159 Speaker 10: They certainly want to serve their districts. The President is 341 00:19:00,200 --> 00:19:03,680 Speaker 10: absolutely right, more funding and needed, and I think we 342 00:19:03,720 --> 00:19:07,560 Speaker 10: should say thank goodness that commer heads prevailed and we 343 00:19:07,600 --> 00:19:10,879 Speaker 10: didn't see a government shutdown as Donald Trump was asking 344 00:19:10,920 --> 00:19:14,240 Speaker 10: for last week over a bill that's not needed, because 345 00:19:14,320 --> 00:19:16,880 Speaker 10: if that had happened, imagine where we would be now, 346 00:19:16,920 --> 00:19:19,639 Speaker 10: which trying to get with trying to get relief these 347 00:19:19,640 --> 00:19:22,520 Speaker 10: needed areas. So we do need the federal government and 348 00:19:22,560 --> 00:19:25,760 Speaker 10: we need those representatives to step in, and they're going 349 00:19:25,800 --> 00:19:27,520 Speaker 10: to have to get off the campaign trail, and I 350 00:19:27,560 --> 00:19:29,600 Speaker 10: think most will to do that important work. 351 00:19:29,640 --> 00:19:31,840 Speaker 2: If you want to see the politics of a natural 352 00:19:31,880 --> 00:19:34,560 Speaker 2: disaster in real time, if you're with us on Bloomberg 353 00:19:34,640 --> 00:19:39,439 Speaker 2: TV or on YouTube, check out the set for Donald Trump. 354 00:19:39,480 --> 00:19:44,520 Speaker 2: This is Valdosta, Georgia once again where they have actually compiled, 355 00:19:44,840 --> 00:19:48,199 Speaker 2: actually used bricks from a destroyed building behind them to 356 00:19:48,359 --> 00:19:52,679 Speaker 2: create kind of a platform for the podium here. Rick, 357 00:19:52,760 --> 00:19:54,320 Speaker 2: I don't know if you can see this, but this 358 00:19:54,359 --> 00:19:57,480 Speaker 2: is a campaign that is being very deliberate about the 359 00:19:57,480 --> 00:19:59,840 Speaker 2: optics in our remaining moment. Does it work? 360 00:20:01,520 --> 00:20:04,760 Speaker 9: Yeah, he could wind up getting some attention like what 361 00:20:04,800 --> 00:20:08,240 Speaker 9: we're giving him about being in Valdosta. Hopefully it's not 362 00:20:08,280 --> 00:20:10,760 Speaker 9: a distraction to the people who are trying to recover there. 363 00:20:11,480 --> 00:20:14,560 Speaker 9: But look, it's not a bad thing for elected officials 364 00:20:14,640 --> 00:20:18,000 Speaker 9: to point to whether or not there is an adequate 365 00:20:18,000 --> 00:20:20,919 Speaker 9: federal response to disasters like this in the past. 366 00:20:20,960 --> 00:20:21,800 Speaker 5: There have been problems. 367 00:20:21,840 --> 00:20:25,080 Speaker 9: In fact, there were problems during the Trump administration and 368 00:20:25,119 --> 00:20:31,160 Speaker 9: a very limited federal response to hurricanes in Puerto Rico, 369 00:20:32,119 --> 00:20:34,600 Speaker 9: at which point you Donald Trump went and you know, 370 00:20:34,640 --> 00:20:38,120 Speaker 9: throw toilet paper to the crowd. So it depends on 371 00:20:38,160 --> 00:20:40,920 Speaker 9: how that event goes and what the message is that 372 00:20:41,080 --> 00:20:44,520 Speaker 9: really matters. Just showing up is only half the agenda. 373 00:20:44,640 --> 00:20:47,600 Speaker 2: That's true. There's an opportunity to succeed as well as 374 00:20:47,680 --> 00:20:51,399 Speaker 2: to fail. Here, Rick Davis and Genie Shanzino or a 375 00:20:51,480 --> 00:20:53,720 Speaker 2: signature panel. This is Bloomberg. 376 00:20:57,560 --> 00:21:01,200 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of power Kens just 377 00:21:01,320 --> 00:21:03,760 Speaker 1: live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car. 378 00:21:03,760 --> 00:21:06,280 Speaker 5: Play and then Proudorto with the Bloomberg Business app. 379 00:21:06,400 --> 00:21:09,520 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 380 00:21:09,600 --> 00:21:13,120 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube. 381 00:21:13,640 --> 00:21:16,320 Speaker 4: New York of course also where we find Joe Matthew today, 382 00:21:16,640 --> 00:21:18,600 Speaker 4: and while I'm in Washington for now, I'll be heading 383 00:21:18,680 --> 00:21:20,760 Speaker 4: up there later on. And there's a reason for that. 384 00:21:20,800 --> 00:21:22,720 Speaker 4: It's because the Big Apple is hosting the big event 385 00:21:22,760 --> 00:21:25,760 Speaker 4: tomorrow night. New York City is where the vice presidential 386 00:21:25,760 --> 00:21:29,480 Speaker 4: debate will take place between jd Vance and Tim Wallas, 387 00:21:29,520 --> 00:21:31,440 Speaker 4: and of course will be on CBS, and it's going 388 00:21:31,480 --> 00:21:33,520 Speaker 4: to look and sound perhaps a little bit different than 389 00:21:33,520 --> 00:21:35,840 Speaker 4: the presidential debate we saw on ABC just a few 390 00:21:35,840 --> 00:21:39,080 Speaker 4: weeks ago. Joe, the moderators will not be fact checking, 391 00:21:39,440 --> 00:21:41,960 Speaker 4: and the mics will be hot. Yeah the entire time. 392 00:21:42,040 --> 00:21:44,240 Speaker 2: What happened to the muted microphones? I thought that was 393 00:21:44,280 --> 00:21:46,720 Speaker 2: the go forward, and Donald Trump isn't there. We do 394 00:21:46,760 --> 00:21:48,920 Speaker 2: it a little bit differently, so I guess a little 395 00:21:48,960 --> 00:21:51,159 Speaker 2: more traditional in that sense. But again, they're also going 396 00:21:51,240 --> 00:21:54,000 Speaker 2: to be standing in a TV studio without an audience, 397 00:21:54,400 --> 00:21:57,800 Speaker 2: which brings its own set of challenges. Here, Kayley for 398 00:21:57,880 --> 00:22:02,119 Speaker 2: two very different candidate than Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. 399 00:22:02,119 --> 00:22:04,720 Speaker 2: Certainly jd. Vance has a bit more experience here. Tim 400 00:22:04,760 --> 00:22:07,960 Speaker 2: Walls has been at least floating this idea that he's 401 00:22:08,119 --> 00:22:11,399 Speaker 2: very nervous. Do you think he's gaming the crowd here or. 402 00:22:11,440 --> 00:22:15,400 Speaker 4: What maybe a little bit of expectation setting lowering the bar. 403 00:22:15,520 --> 00:22:18,320 Speaker 4: We've seen that ahead of all of these debates to 404 00:22:18,359 --> 00:22:19,399 Speaker 4: some degree, haven't we. 405 00:22:19,880 --> 00:22:22,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, he's told CNN he doesn't want to let Kamala 406 00:22:22,280 --> 00:22:25,200 Speaker 2: Harris down. But they're both taking their own approaches at 407 00:22:25,240 --> 00:22:27,760 Speaker 2: prep here. And it's where we start our conversation with 408 00:22:27,880 --> 00:22:30,119 Speaker 2: Mick mulvaney. He's back with us, of course, the former 409 00:22:30,160 --> 00:22:32,919 Speaker 2: acting White House Chief of Staff and the Trump administration 410 00:22:33,040 --> 00:22:37,280 Speaker 2: for congressman, co founder the House Freedom Caucus, former director 411 00:22:37,320 --> 00:22:40,120 Speaker 2: of the OMB. How come everyone always forgets that one? Mick, 412 00:22:40,160 --> 00:22:42,879 Speaker 2: it's great to have you back before we talk strategy here. 413 00:22:42,920 --> 00:22:46,359 Speaker 2: It's good to see you on Bloomberg. Just broadly, do 414 00:22:46,480 --> 00:22:50,439 Speaker 2: people care Normally in a presidential contest, this would not 415 00:22:50,480 --> 00:22:53,000 Speaker 2: be the most watched event. What's going to happen tomorrow? 416 00:22:53,720 --> 00:22:57,440 Speaker 7: The short answer to your question is no, Okay, we care, 417 00:22:57,560 --> 00:22:59,840 Speaker 7: We do listen if you consider yourself to be sort 418 00:22:59,880 --> 00:23:04,120 Speaker 7: of politically engaged if you're a commentator, a pundent, whatever, 419 00:23:04,200 --> 00:23:06,480 Speaker 7: I am. I have no idea. Yeah, we're gonna watch 420 00:23:06,520 --> 00:23:09,440 Speaker 7: it to be able to comment. Maybe see, you know, listen, 421 00:23:09,440 --> 00:23:12,280 Speaker 7: if you're curious about who the next president vice president 422 00:23:12,359 --> 00:23:14,680 Speaker 7: United States is going to be, you might tune in. 423 00:23:14,800 --> 00:23:16,840 Speaker 7: But I think it's very much inside baseball. I don't 424 00:23:16,840 --> 00:23:19,600 Speaker 7: think there's a single undecided voter who goes you know what, 425 00:23:19,680 --> 00:23:23,320 Speaker 7: I'm on the sided between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. 426 00:23:23,640 --> 00:23:26,000 Speaker 7: I think this vice presidential debate is going to be 427 00:23:26,040 --> 00:23:28,480 Speaker 7: determinive for me in that process. I just don't I 428 00:23:28,640 --> 00:23:30,640 Speaker 7: just don't see it. People don't vote based upon VP. 429 00:23:32,359 --> 00:23:35,320 Speaker 4: Well, I wonder, Mick, if that's people don't decide to 430 00:23:35,440 --> 00:23:38,399 Speaker 4: vote for a ticket because of the vice presidential debate, 431 00:23:38,400 --> 00:23:40,480 Speaker 4: But could they decide to vote against one? Is there 432 00:23:40,480 --> 00:23:42,639 Speaker 4: an opportunity here for one of these two gentlemen to 433 00:23:42,680 --> 00:23:43,159 Speaker 4: slip up? 434 00:23:45,200 --> 00:23:46,240 Speaker 1: I guess yes. 435 00:23:46,280 --> 00:23:48,720 Speaker 7: The answer is yes. If your question is is there 436 00:23:48,800 --> 00:23:52,560 Speaker 7: more downside to a campaign ticket from doing these then 437 00:23:52,600 --> 00:23:55,680 Speaker 7: there's upside? The answers yes, you know, someone goes off 438 00:23:55,720 --> 00:23:58,600 Speaker 7: and says something completely outrageous or stupid. Can it reflect 439 00:23:58,680 --> 00:24:00,880 Speaker 7: badly on the top of the ticket? Yes, it can, 440 00:24:01,320 --> 00:24:03,160 Speaker 7: But I mean look back over the You know, we 441 00:24:03,240 --> 00:24:06,920 Speaker 7: remember these for what we remember these for? When was 442 00:24:06,960 --> 00:24:11,239 Speaker 7: it Lloyd Benson said? That wasn't John Kennedy did? Did 443 00:24:11,280 --> 00:24:13,479 Speaker 7: that movie he votes? You know, we remember what Mike 444 00:24:13,520 --> 00:24:15,800 Speaker 7: Pence had a fly on his forehead? Is that movie 445 00:24:15,800 --> 00:24:19,200 Speaker 7: he votes? We don't remember these for the deep policy 446 00:24:19,359 --> 00:24:21,680 Speaker 7: sort of sort of discussions. 447 00:24:21,200 --> 00:24:24,120 Speaker 2: Made the fly really famous. Though, meck, I guess that 448 00:24:24,200 --> 00:24:26,240 Speaker 2: means everyone's going to come pack in with a one 449 00:24:26,280 --> 00:24:27,879 Speaker 2: liner tomorrow and eight they're going to try to do 450 00:24:27,880 --> 00:24:30,760 Speaker 2: the Lloyd Benson moment. Right MIC's are going to be unmuted. 451 00:24:30,800 --> 00:24:32,400 Speaker 2: This actually could be a little feisty. 452 00:24:33,600 --> 00:24:35,760 Speaker 7: Everybody's looking for their viral moment. And look, if I 453 00:24:35,800 --> 00:24:37,600 Speaker 7: was a betting man on who I think might be 454 00:24:37,600 --> 00:24:39,600 Speaker 7: better on their feet. And again, I know both these guys. 455 00:24:39,640 --> 00:24:41,800 Speaker 7: I do not know j D nearly as well as 456 00:24:41,840 --> 00:24:43,720 Speaker 7: I know Tim. I like both of these guys. I 457 00:24:43,720 --> 00:24:45,879 Speaker 7: really liked Tim a lot. You know, we again we 458 00:24:45,920 --> 00:24:47,960 Speaker 7: shared a locker or right next to each other in 459 00:24:48,000 --> 00:24:50,760 Speaker 7: the gym for six years. He's a nice guy. But 460 00:24:51,040 --> 00:24:52,520 Speaker 7: if I had to put money on who's going to 461 00:24:52,520 --> 00:24:55,040 Speaker 7: be better on their feet with the Quippi one liners. 462 00:24:55,359 --> 00:24:57,840 Speaker 7: It's going to be JD. Why is that? Keep in 463 00:24:57,840 --> 00:24:59,720 Speaker 7: mind one of the reasons they say that the Democrats 464 00:24:59,760 --> 00:25:02,800 Speaker 7: hire Walls, but he's so good on interviews and on TV, 465 00:25:02,880 --> 00:25:05,440 Speaker 7: but they haven't let him do many of those. Since 466 00:25:05,480 --> 00:25:08,520 Speaker 7: he's been sort of picked as the VP, JD has, 467 00:25:08,640 --> 00:25:12,159 Speaker 7: He's gone on unfriendly media outlets, and he's got a 468 00:25:12,200 --> 00:25:15,800 Speaker 7: lot of tough questions. My guess is that JD Vance 469 00:25:15,840 --> 00:25:18,040 Speaker 7: will not get a question tonight that he hasn't been 470 00:25:18,080 --> 00:25:20,480 Speaker 7: asked several times tomorrow night, that he has been asked 471 00:25:20,480 --> 00:25:23,359 Speaker 7: several times. It's possible that Tim Walls is and if 472 00:25:23,400 --> 00:25:26,400 Speaker 7: you get caught off guard or off balance, that's when 473 00:25:26,440 --> 00:25:29,560 Speaker 7: those viral negative moments might spring up. 474 00:25:31,359 --> 00:25:35,480 Speaker 4: I am curious to hear more about your Jim Jim 475 00:25:35,600 --> 00:25:42,840 Speaker 4: situation with now Governor Tim Walls, Mick, but uh, we did, Okay, No, 476 00:25:43,000 --> 00:25:43,919 Speaker 4: Joe really wants to know. 477 00:25:44,119 --> 00:25:46,760 Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't, how so tell us more, Mick. 478 00:25:46,920 --> 00:25:49,160 Speaker 7: I need to hear this since since this is off 479 00:25:49,200 --> 00:25:52,720 Speaker 7: the record, I know and you know no one cares. Absolutely. 480 00:25:53,520 --> 00:25:55,520 Speaker 7: My line is that I've seen Tim Walls naked more 481 00:25:55,520 --> 00:25:59,399 Speaker 7: than his wife has okay, so so yeah, we had 482 00:25:59,400 --> 00:26:01,480 Speaker 7: the lockers next to each other in the in the house, 483 00:26:01,520 --> 00:26:03,919 Speaker 7: Jim for six. He's a lovely guide. But I mean 484 00:26:03,960 --> 00:26:06,760 Speaker 7: the listen. We can talk a long time another day 485 00:26:06,760 --> 00:26:12,000 Speaker 7: about about how Democrats and Republicans actually behave towards each 486 00:26:12,000 --> 00:26:13,720 Speaker 7: other in the house. It's not at all with the 487 00:26:13,760 --> 00:26:16,720 Speaker 7: media broad or broadly what have you think? We are friends, 488 00:26:16,760 --> 00:26:19,080 Speaker 7: We still communicate with each other. I wish him well. 489 00:26:19,080 --> 00:26:19,800 Speaker 7: I hope he loses. 490 00:26:19,840 --> 00:26:20,320 Speaker 5: How about that. 491 00:26:22,680 --> 00:26:25,040 Speaker 4: Fair enough? And that is a good a good reminder, Mike, 492 00:26:25,080 --> 00:26:27,399 Speaker 4: if we could talk about the substance the issues some 493 00:26:27,480 --> 00:26:31,840 Speaker 4: of these two will be uh debating. Uh, there's questions 494 00:26:31,920 --> 00:26:35,560 Speaker 4: that are around things like say immigration, knowing that that 495 00:26:35,680 --> 00:26:39,080 Speaker 4: has been a perceived with weakness for the Democratic ticket specifically. 496 00:26:39,080 --> 00:26:41,000 Speaker 4: But jd. Vance has caught in a lot of flack 497 00:26:41,000 --> 00:26:44,000 Speaker 4: in recent weeks for continuing to propagate a lie about 498 00:26:44,200 --> 00:26:48,359 Speaker 4: Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio eating cats and dogs. Does 499 00:26:48,400 --> 00:26:52,159 Speaker 4: he need to disavow that on the debate stage tomorrow night, Mick. 500 00:26:53,480 --> 00:26:56,400 Speaker 7: I don't know what disavowing does I mean if there's damage, 501 00:26:56,440 --> 00:26:59,000 Speaker 7: it's already been done. If you come in and disavow it. 502 00:26:59,040 --> 00:27:02,920 Speaker 7: I'm not sure that that helps much, but you raise 503 00:27:02,920 --> 00:27:07,320 Speaker 7: a good point of immigration. I'm not sure why Kamala 504 00:27:07,359 --> 00:27:08,960 Speaker 7: Harris went to the border this week, and I know 505 00:27:08,960 --> 00:27:10,800 Speaker 7: that's sent your question, Kaylee, but it ties into this 506 00:27:10,920 --> 00:27:13,480 Speaker 7: larger issue. This is an issue that the Democrats are 507 00:27:13,480 --> 00:27:17,320 Speaker 7: weaker on than the Republicans. I equate it to her 508 00:27:17,440 --> 00:27:20,480 Speaker 7: going to the border right before the election, so a 509 00:27:20,480 --> 00:27:22,280 Speaker 7: couple of weeks before the election, to Donald Trump going 510 00:27:22,320 --> 00:27:24,520 Speaker 7: to Pennsylvania and talking about nothing but abortion for an 511 00:27:24,520 --> 00:27:27,440 Speaker 7: hour and a half. Why draw attention to the issues 512 00:27:27,440 --> 00:27:30,600 Speaker 7: that are not your strength. I get it, it's a 513 00:27:30,600 --> 00:27:32,400 Speaker 7: big deal in Arizona, it's a big deal in of Otter. 514 00:27:32,480 --> 00:27:35,160 Speaker 7: She sort of has to go down there eventually. Maybe 515 00:27:35,359 --> 00:27:39,119 Speaker 7: maybe she's insulating herself against the charge going forward that 516 00:27:39,160 --> 00:27:41,840 Speaker 7: she's never been to the border. But why the Democrats 517 00:27:41,880 --> 00:27:45,600 Speaker 7: draw attention to it? I don't get it, because it's 518 00:27:45,640 --> 00:27:47,120 Speaker 7: not an issue they are going to win on. They're 519 00:27:47,119 --> 00:27:49,440 Speaker 7: doing better on the economy, by the way, according to 520 00:27:49,440 --> 00:27:51,520 Speaker 7: the polling Dad, I still think they trailed Donald Trump 521 00:27:52,760 --> 00:27:56,119 Speaker 7: pretty significantly on the economy, but the trend lines are 522 00:27:56,200 --> 00:27:58,000 Speaker 7: good for them. So why they're not talking about that 523 00:27:58,560 --> 00:28:00,600 Speaker 7: or abortion or the other issues are good about. My 524 00:28:00,680 --> 00:28:03,280 Speaker 7: guess is if Tim Walls gets an immigration question, he 525 00:28:03,359 --> 00:28:05,920 Speaker 7: will mention exactly what you did, very briefly, and then 526 00:28:05,960 --> 00:28:08,920 Speaker 7: try and pivot to something else, probably talk about how 527 00:28:09,119 --> 00:28:10,960 Speaker 7: there was going to be a Senate bill that Donald 528 00:28:10,960 --> 00:28:13,320 Speaker 7: Trump killed. That's the end of the discussion. What's the 529 00:28:13,320 --> 00:28:13,840 Speaker 7: next question? 530 00:28:14,160 --> 00:28:16,879 Speaker 2: Well, Donald Trump is talking about the debate here. He 531 00:28:16,960 --> 00:28:19,920 Speaker 2: posted on truth Social a little bit earlier, Mick, I 532 00:28:19,960 --> 00:28:22,040 Speaker 2: will be doing a personal play by play of the 533 00:28:22,040 --> 00:28:25,800 Speaker 2: debate tomorrow, he says, between the brilliant JD. Vance and 534 00:28:25,840 --> 00:28:30,359 Speaker 2: the highly inarticulate Tim Walls, he uses a nickname that's 535 00:28:30,680 --> 00:28:32,680 Speaker 2: not for the family show. I don't know if it 536 00:28:32,720 --> 00:28:34,760 Speaker 2: were to come up in the locker room, He writes. 537 00:28:34,840 --> 00:28:39,080 Speaker 2: I hope that cognitively challenged lion Kamala Harris will be listening. 538 00:28:39,400 --> 00:28:41,800 Speaker 2: And I mentioned that line because Donald Trump referred to 539 00:28:41,840 --> 00:28:45,160 Speaker 2: her several times over the weekend as mentally impaired and 540 00:28:45,320 --> 00:28:48,360 Speaker 2: mentally disabled. Mick, what do you make of this new 541 00:28:48,400 --> 00:28:51,280 Speaker 2: line of attack and a culture that takes that charge 542 00:28:51,360 --> 00:28:52,200 Speaker 2: pretty seriously. 543 00:28:53,920 --> 00:28:56,680 Speaker 7: Look, we all talk about charges taken seriously, so let's 544 00:28:56,720 --> 00:28:58,960 Speaker 7: isolate on this. Was it a smart thing to No, 545 00:28:59,560 --> 00:29:02,560 Speaker 7: I'm not sure. Sure. Look, if you've decided, and it 546 00:29:02,600 --> 00:29:05,240 Speaker 7: now appears as if both campaigns have decided this is 547 00:29:05,240 --> 00:29:08,920 Speaker 7: a turnout election, they're done. But that's not unusual. You 548 00:29:08,960 --> 00:29:10,440 Speaker 7: focus on the middle, you focus in the middle, and 549 00:29:10,480 --> 00:29:12,520 Speaker 7: then the last weeks you just make sure your voters 550 00:29:12,600 --> 00:29:16,400 Speaker 7: get up and vote. I'm not sure what calling her 551 00:29:16,520 --> 00:29:20,440 Speaker 7: names does to motivate his base. If anything, it probably 552 00:29:20,480 --> 00:29:23,680 Speaker 7: motivates her base to come out to vote against him. Again. 553 00:29:23,920 --> 00:29:29,560 Speaker 7: You can sit in there and sort of second guest 554 00:29:29,560 --> 00:29:32,280 Speaker 7: Donald Trump all you want to. He's been successful running 555 00:29:32,280 --> 00:29:33,680 Speaker 7: for president, so he's going to tell you he knows 556 00:29:33,680 --> 00:29:35,720 Speaker 7: what he's doing. But I just don't know who that 557 00:29:35,840 --> 00:29:39,440 Speaker 7: adds because the right wing base is already upset about 558 00:29:39,480 --> 00:29:41,880 Speaker 7: her and they're going to vote anyway. And is Trump 559 00:29:41,920 --> 00:29:44,360 Speaker 7: just running the risk of motivating the base against him, 560 00:29:44,680 --> 00:29:47,160 Speaker 7: which would be a bad thing. So look, we did 561 00:29:47,160 --> 00:29:49,080 Speaker 7: the same thing with John McCain. I remember talking him 562 00:29:49,080 --> 00:29:52,680 Speaker 7: in the White House during twenty nineteen, getting ready to 563 00:29:52,720 --> 00:29:54,520 Speaker 7: go in to twenty twenty. He's beating up a McCain 564 00:29:54,680 --> 00:29:57,400 Speaker 7: after he died, and it's like, Boss, tell me the 565 00:29:57,480 --> 00:29:59,840 Speaker 7: voter out there who wasn't with you who says, you 566 00:29:59,880 --> 00:30:01,480 Speaker 7: know what, I wasn't with this Trump guy, but now 567 00:30:01,480 --> 00:30:03,880 Speaker 7: that he's beating up on a popular, dead senator, now 568 00:30:03,960 --> 00:30:06,440 Speaker 7: I'm going to vote for him. Maybe there are people 569 00:30:06,440 --> 00:30:08,080 Speaker 7: out there who were with you and now look at 570 00:30:08,120 --> 00:30:09,800 Speaker 7: you and go, wait a second. I was going to 571 00:30:09,840 --> 00:30:11,240 Speaker 7: vote for Trump, and now he's beating up on a 572 00:30:11,280 --> 00:30:14,080 Speaker 7: senator I've voted for for thirty years. Maybe I won't 573 00:30:14,160 --> 00:30:16,479 Speaker 7: vote and he loses Arizona by what ten or fifteen 574 00:30:16,480 --> 00:30:20,120 Speaker 7: thousand votes? So I don't understand it, But again, he's 575 00:30:20,120 --> 00:30:21,200 Speaker 7: going to do what he wants to do. 576 00:30:23,240 --> 00:30:27,040 Speaker 4: Well, fair enough, Mick, I think we certainly have seen 577 00:30:27,120 --> 00:30:30,080 Speaker 4: that as we continually get reporting that advisors and people 578 00:30:30,080 --> 00:30:32,360 Speaker 4: close to Trump are pushing him to talk about policy 579 00:30:32,360 --> 00:30:34,560 Speaker 4: and he thinks the personal attacks are still working for 580 00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:37,120 Speaker 4: him quite well. I want to go back to something 581 00:30:37,200 --> 00:30:39,680 Speaker 4: you were saying though, about how you think Harrison Wall 582 00:30:39,720 --> 00:30:42,080 Speaker 4: should be talking more about the economy as they seem 583 00:30:42,120 --> 00:30:44,400 Speaker 4: to be on an upward trajectory, and how voters feel 584 00:30:44,400 --> 00:30:47,160 Speaker 4: about them handling that issue as of late. Knowing just 585 00:30:47,200 --> 00:30:49,040 Speaker 4: a few minutes from now, we are expected to hear 586 00:30:49,120 --> 00:30:51,720 Speaker 4: from the FED chair Jay Powell, who was set to 587 00:30:51,720 --> 00:30:56,080 Speaker 4: speak at the National Association for Business Economics annual meeting 588 00:30:56,360 --> 00:30:59,560 Speaker 4: in Nashville. The FEDS cut rates, by and large, things 589 00:30:59,560 --> 00:31:01,959 Speaker 4: are still looking like they're holding up, okay, even if 590 00:31:01,960 --> 00:31:03,920 Speaker 4: we're starting to see softening in the labor market, and 591 00:31:04,000 --> 00:31:07,200 Speaker 4: polling consistently shows, including our own with Morning Consult in 592 00:31:07,240 --> 00:31:11,120 Speaker 4: the Swing states, that Harris's economic proposals are among the 593 00:31:11,160 --> 00:31:15,240 Speaker 4: more popular economic proposals between the two candidates with voters. 594 00:31:15,280 --> 00:31:17,120 Speaker 4: Does that mean Donald Trump needs to talk about the 595 00:31:17,160 --> 00:31:20,600 Speaker 4: economy more or pivot to another issue to attack her on? 596 00:31:21,200 --> 00:31:21,320 Speaker 5: Now? 597 00:31:21,320 --> 00:31:24,240 Speaker 7: Now, I think again, if you're advising Trump and he's 598 00:31:24,280 --> 00:31:27,800 Speaker 7: watching his look, I still think the argument is this, 599 00:31:28,480 --> 00:31:31,440 Speaker 7: I was in charge for four years. Okay, she's been 600 00:31:31,440 --> 00:31:33,880 Speaker 7: in charge sort of for four years. Which of those 601 00:31:33,920 --> 00:31:37,240 Speaker 7: four years was better for you? That's the argument, right. 602 00:31:37,320 --> 00:31:39,600 Speaker 7: I don't think anybody cares much about policies. I saw 603 00:31:39,640 --> 00:31:43,320 Speaker 7: some of her summary policies and listen, they're not very deep. 604 00:31:43,440 --> 00:31:45,240 Speaker 7: You know, they're a mile wat in an inch deep. 605 00:31:45,280 --> 00:31:47,960 Speaker 7: They're very high minded, sort of helping the middle class. 606 00:31:48,000 --> 00:31:50,440 Speaker 7: I get that, that's what I expect from folks at 607 00:31:50,440 --> 00:31:52,680 Speaker 7: this point in the election. But I think Trump can 608 00:31:52,800 --> 00:31:55,040 Speaker 7: talk about the economy more. But he doesn't need to 609 00:31:55,120 --> 00:31:57,560 Speaker 7: go into specifics, and certainly doesn't need to be introducing 610 00:31:57,600 --> 00:32:00,200 Speaker 7: things that make his own base scratch their heads, like 611 00:32:01,000 --> 00:32:04,640 Speaker 7: capping interest rates on credit cards. Holy cow, that's a 612 00:32:04,680 --> 00:32:07,560 Speaker 7: gut punch to conservatives like me still voting for him. 613 00:32:07,560 --> 00:32:08,960 Speaker 7: But I mean, you got to wonder what the heck 614 00:32:09,040 --> 00:32:11,560 Speaker 7: is going on inside the campaign when they roll out 615 00:32:11,640 --> 00:32:15,240 Speaker 7: that policy proposal that level of specificity this close to 616 00:32:15,280 --> 00:32:18,640 Speaker 7: the election. So look, look, she's trending in the right 617 00:32:18,680 --> 00:32:21,080 Speaker 7: direction if I'm her. What I'm saying is, look, inflation 618 00:32:21,200 --> 00:32:24,160 Speaker 7: is coming down. It's a true statement. What I really 619 00:32:24,160 --> 00:32:26,640 Speaker 7: think it'd be interesting you talked about Jay Powell is 620 00:32:26,680 --> 00:32:29,320 Speaker 7: just someone ask him, if things are so good, why'd 621 00:32:29,320 --> 00:32:32,480 Speaker 7: you cut fifty points? Fifty basis points? The only two 622 00:32:32,480 --> 00:32:34,880 Speaker 7: times they've done that recently was during the global financial 623 00:32:34,920 --> 00:32:36,960 Speaker 7: crisis and the beginning of COVID. So what did they 624 00:32:37,000 --> 00:32:39,840 Speaker 7: see in the data that prompted them to cut fifty 625 00:32:39,840 --> 00:32:42,480 Speaker 7: basis points? I'm not sure. Maybe somebody's asked that question 626 00:32:42,560 --> 00:32:45,120 Speaker 7: not seeing the answer yet. But if I'm the Harris campaign, 627 00:32:45,200 --> 00:32:48,400 Speaker 7: that worries me because that's what's in there that might 628 00:32:48,440 --> 00:32:50,920 Speaker 7: pop up between now and November. Oh and by the way, 629 00:32:51,880 --> 00:32:53,920 Speaker 7: I think the answer might be this DOC strike that 630 00:32:54,040 --> 00:32:56,200 Speaker 7: might start tomorrow. That could be the October surprise that 631 00:32:56,360 --> 00:32:58,600 Speaker 7: was just sitting out for everybody to see. If that 632 00:32:58,720 --> 00:33:01,360 Speaker 7: leads to supply chain If now in November, that can 633 00:33:01,440 --> 00:33:02,800 Speaker 7: be a problem for the comment party. 634 00:33:03,920 --> 00:33:07,640 Speaker 4: That's an excellent point. Mcmulvaney, former OMB director, former acting 635 00:33:07,680 --> 00:33:09,800 Speaker 4: chief of staff and the Trump White House, co founder 636 00:33:09,800 --> 00:33:12,680 Speaker 4: of the Freedom Caucus, former congressman, thank you as always 637 00:33:12,720 --> 00:33:15,400 Speaker 4: for joining us here on Bloomberg TV and radio. And 638 00:33:15,400 --> 00:33:18,000 Speaker 4: that is an important point, Joe, as we await the 639 00:33:18,120 --> 00:33:21,640 Speaker 4: words of Chairman Powell talk about the economy hanging in 640 00:33:21,680 --> 00:33:24,440 Speaker 4: there for now, inflation being lower, you have a DOCS 641 00:33:24,480 --> 00:33:28,120 Speaker 4: worker strike that potentially could disrupt supply chains, cost freight 642 00:33:28,200 --> 00:33:30,840 Speaker 4: rates to go higher. And of course we're dealing with 643 00:33:30,880 --> 00:33:33,760 Speaker 4: potentially tens of billions of dollars in economic damage from 644 00:33:33,880 --> 00:33:36,080 Speaker 4: Hurricane Helen that just rolled through the southeast YEP. 645 00:33:36,120 --> 00:33:39,360 Speaker 2: It's pretty remarkable. As we mentioned, five I believe billion 646 00:33:39,400 --> 00:33:42,640 Speaker 2: dollars a day was the cost put forth by an 647 00:33:42,680 --> 00:33:46,520 Speaker 2: analyst at JP Morgan Chase. The economic impact cannot be 648 00:33:46,560 --> 00:33:49,040 Speaker 2: ignored here, Kaylee. And if you're looking at Kamala Harris 649 00:33:49,040 --> 00:33:52,080 Speaker 2: as an incumbent. There is inherent political risk here with 650 00:33:52,120 --> 00:33:53,960 Speaker 2: what's likely to happen tomorrow. 651 00:33:57,120 --> 00:34:00,440 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Ken 652 00:34:00,640 --> 00:34:03,600 Speaker 1: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and. 653 00:34:03,520 --> 00:34:05,720 Speaker 5: Then Rounoo with the Bloomberg Business App. 654 00:34:05,800 --> 00:34:08,640 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 655 00:34:08,640 --> 00:34:14,319 Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 656 00:34:15,160 --> 00:34:20,279 Speaker 2: We're talking again about a massive potential economic impact here, 657 00:34:20,360 --> 00:34:23,680 Speaker 2: more than a dozen ports collectively handling about half of 658 00:34:23,719 --> 00:34:27,640 Speaker 2: the imports that reach the United States at hand. 659 00:34:27,960 --> 00:34:28,200 Speaker 1: Here. 660 00:34:28,320 --> 00:34:30,680 Speaker 2: Thank you so much, Danny. We'll connect with Danny Berger 661 00:34:31,000 --> 00:34:34,759 Speaker 2: a little bit later on in the broadcast. If you're 662 00:34:34,760 --> 00:34:37,120 Speaker 2: listening to us here on the radio, I think we 663 00:34:37,160 --> 00:34:40,040 Speaker 2: can all agree that that truck behind Danny was going 664 00:34:40,080 --> 00:34:43,280 Speaker 2: in reverse. As we turn our attention to the campaign, 665 00:34:43,320 --> 00:34:45,440 Speaker 2: I mentioned it's all about the hurricane today, and that 666 00:34:45,560 --> 00:34:50,840 Speaker 2: is diverting attention from the presidential campaign from their travel schedules. 667 00:34:51,080 --> 00:34:52,520 Speaker 2: And you're going to be hearing a lot more from 668 00:34:52,520 --> 00:34:55,120 Speaker 2: Donald Trump a little bit later on in Georgia. But 669 00:34:55,160 --> 00:34:58,440 Speaker 2: we got another deluge of polls over the weekend and 670 00:34:58,480 --> 00:35:00,279 Speaker 2: we are kind of drowning in numbers right now. Now 671 00:35:00,280 --> 00:35:03,759 Speaker 2: that gives us an opportunity on this Monday to pull 672 00:35:03,840 --> 00:35:05,680 Speaker 2: up the jet just a little bit and get a 673 00:35:05,719 --> 00:35:08,000 Speaker 2: thirty thousand foot view, and we love doing that with 674 00:35:08,080 --> 00:35:11,560 Speaker 2: Cliff Young, upholster but also a political analyst and president 675 00:35:11,600 --> 00:35:14,799 Speaker 2: of US Public Affairs at ipsoc's with us live from 676 00:35:14,840 --> 00:35:18,279 Speaker 2: our Washington studios with a boltload of new data that 677 00:35:18,400 --> 00:35:21,759 Speaker 2: might really reinforce the idea that not only is the 678 00:35:21,800 --> 00:35:24,359 Speaker 2: economy the number one issue in this campaign. I think 679 00:35:24,400 --> 00:35:27,799 Speaker 2: we've established that with Cliff, but some strides being made 680 00:35:27,880 --> 00:35:29,880 Speaker 2: right now by the Harris campaign and catching up with 681 00:35:29,920 --> 00:35:33,839 Speaker 2: Donald Trump. Cliff Young, welcome back. Let's start broadly here 682 00:35:33,840 --> 00:35:36,920 Speaker 2: in the baseline as we stare down the barrel of 683 00:35:37,040 --> 00:35:40,840 Speaker 2: basically the final month, thirty six days to the election. 684 00:35:41,080 --> 00:35:43,360 Speaker 2: We've established that the economy is going to be the 685 00:35:43,400 --> 00:35:46,239 Speaker 2: number one issue. How are these two candidates doing when 686 00:35:46,239 --> 00:35:49,040 Speaker 2: it comes to trust in handling the economy? 687 00:35:50,520 --> 00:35:53,680 Speaker 11: Yeah, the battle right now is about the framing of 688 00:35:53,719 --> 00:35:56,920 Speaker 11: the economy, what does it mean and what does it 689 00:35:56,960 --> 00:36:00,520 Speaker 11: mean to voters? And the two campaigns are at at 690 00:36:00,719 --> 00:36:05,239 Speaker 11: sort of two different points of the spectrum on that. 691 00:36:05,560 --> 00:36:08,320 Speaker 11: On the one hand, you have Trump and his campaign 692 00:36:08,880 --> 00:36:11,960 Speaker 11: wanting to talk about inflation, wanting to talk about throw 693 00:36:11,960 --> 00:36:15,040 Speaker 11: the bums out because of inflation, a very simple kind 694 00:36:15,040 --> 00:36:18,719 Speaker 11: of contrast, and you have the Harris campaign trying to 695 00:36:18,760 --> 00:36:23,560 Speaker 11: look forward, trying to talk about future economic opportunities for 696 00:36:23,600 --> 00:36:28,040 Speaker 11: all Americans. And this is the dispute today the campaign 697 00:36:28,120 --> 00:36:31,360 Speaker 11: in my mind that when's this framing debate? When's this 698 00:36:31,480 --> 00:36:33,880 Speaker 11: framing dispute will take the White House. 699 00:36:34,080 --> 00:36:36,920 Speaker 2: You have some really interesting numbers here, and it almost 700 00:36:36,920 --> 00:36:38,680 Speaker 2: has to do with the way that you're asking the 701 00:36:38,760 --> 00:36:42,400 Speaker 2: question about the economy. We can get really specific about inflation, 702 00:36:42,520 --> 00:36:45,200 Speaker 2: for instance, or we can just talk about your financial 703 00:36:45,200 --> 00:36:47,920 Speaker 2: well being. You've asked a couple of questions here, Cliff, 704 00:36:47,920 --> 00:36:49,520 Speaker 2: and I'd love for you to walk us through this. 705 00:36:50,320 --> 00:36:52,840 Speaker 2: When looking at things you want in the next president, 706 00:36:52,920 --> 00:36:55,560 Speaker 2: let's be specific about the way you're asking in your poll, 707 00:36:55,920 --> 00:36:58,760 Speaker 2: which of the following is most important to you building 708 00:36:58,800 --> 00:37:01,680 Speaker 2: an economy that gives every American a chance to succeed. 709 00:37:02,480 --> 00:37:06,839 Speaker 2: Twenty one percent chose that number one issue here, and 710 00:37:06,880 --> 00:37:12,160 Speaker 2: it's D plus twenty three in the margin favoring Kamala Harris. 711 00:37:12,320 --> 00:37:15,279 Speaker 2: When you ask the question which of the following is 712 00:37:15,320 --> 00:37:20,440 Speaker 2: most important to you. And in the case of inflation, 713 00:37:20,600 --> 00:37:23,239 Speaker 2: here getting costs and inflation under control comes in at 714 00:37:23,239 --> 00:37:27,279 Speaker 2: seventeen percent. But that's advantage Donald Trump plus thirty three. 715 00:37:27,840 --> 00:37:29,319 Speaker 2: How do you rationalize those two? 716 00:37:30,680 --> 00:37:33,799 Speaker 11: Yeah, two things can can exist in people's head at 717 00:37:33,840 --> 00:37:36,440 Speaker 11: anyone given time. But this goes back to my initial 718 00:37:36,520 --> 00:37:41,439 Speaker 11: point the campaign that the election will be decided upon 719 00:37:42,280 --> 00:37:45,520 Speaker 11: who best frames the issue of the economy. As we 720 00:37:45,600 --> 00:37:49,960 Speaker 11: can see, the number one issue today for Americans is 721 00:37:50,000 --> 00:37:53,000 Speaker 11: the economy written large. If it's framed in the hair 722 00:37:53,160 --> 00:37:55,520 Speaker 11: on the hair side, that you're looking towards the future, 723 00:37:55,520 --> 00:37:58,239 Speaker 11: looking for a greater opportunity for all Americans, she will 724 00:37:58,239 --> 00:38:01,680 Speaker 11: take the election. If Donald Trump is successful and he 725 00:38:01,760 --> 00:38:05,960 Speaker 11: puts it in terms of of change election where inflation 726 00:38:06,080 --> 00:38:09,120 Speaker 11: has really affected negatively Americans, he will take it. And 727 00:38:09,160 --> 00:38:12,280 Speaker 11: the data just reinforces that overall point. 728 00:38:12,360 --> 00:38:15,560 Speaker 2: So with the advantage that we've seen, sort of turning 729 00:38:15,600 --> 00:38:18,200 Speaker 2: to Kamala Harris on this issue, either closing the gap, 730 00:38:19,000 --> 00:38:21,840 Speaker 2: catching up with, or in some cases, topping Donald Trump 731 00:38:21,880 --> 00:38:24,040 Speaker 2: within the margin of error specifically on the issue of 732 00:38:24,080 --> 00:38:27,600 Speaker 2: the economy, then suggests that she's doing a better job 733 00:38:27,680 --> 00:38:30,480 Speaker 2: framing this issue. That's that is your point when it 734 00:38:30,520 --> 00:38:32,000 Speaker 2: comes to messaging to voters. 735 00:38:33,160 --> 00:38:37,120 Speaker 11: Yeah, I would say today the Hairs campaign is much 736 00:38:37,160 --> 00:38:40,759 Speaker 11: more effective at framing the issue of the economy than 737 00:38:40,800 --> 00:38:44,440 Speaker 11: the Trump campaign is. Now. Obviously we have some time 738 00:38:44,640 --> 00:38:48,360 Speaker 11: to go, but at this point, right now, the Hairs 739 00:38:48,360 --> 00:38:51,040 Speaker 11: campaign is much more effective. And I would just add 740 00:38:51,080 --> 00:38:53,960 Speaker 11: to that point, it was because because of the sequence 741 00:38:53,960 --> 00:38:59,960 Speaker 11: of events, the assassination attempt, the historically bad debate by 742 00:39:00,120 --> 00:39:04,719 Speaker 11: and stepping out, that gave a moment for voters to reflect, 743 00:39:04,880 --> 00:39:07,400 Speaker 11: to pause, and to think about who they're going to 744 00:39:07,440 --> 00:39:10,839 Speaker 11: vote for, and Harris and her campaign were much more 745 00:39:10,840 --> 00:39:12,760 Speaker 11: effective at filling that vacuum. 746 00:39:12,800 --> 00:39:15,200 Speaker 2: Okay, so talk to us about the debate tomorrow night. 747 00:39:15,200 --> 00:39:18,359 Speaker 2: Then we've got the running mates. Granted, they probably will 748 00:39:18,400 --> 00:39:21,719 Speaker 2: not have the baffo ratings that we saw the presidential 749 00:39:21,719 --> 00:39:24,600 Speaker 2: candidates at sixty seven million viewers, but they're going to 750 00:39:24,680 --> 00:39:26,319 Speaker 2: have a real opportunity here to talk to a lot 751 00:39:26,360 --> 00:39:28,839 Speaker 2: of Americans, and I suspect that it will involve more 752 00:39:28,880 --> 00:39:31,760 Speaker 2: than being weird and eating house pets when it comes 753 00:39:31,760 --> 00:39:34,680 Speaker 2: to policy. When it comes to the economy, do either 754 00:39:34,800 --> 00:39:37,839 Speaker 2: of the running mates have an opportunity to make a dent. 755 00:39:39,600 --> 00:39:42,600 Speaker 11: Yeah, I would say, I would say perhaps on the margins, 756 00:39:42,680 --> 00:39:45,920 Speaker 11: typically not. But I often look at debates as a 757 00:39:45,960 --> 00:39:50,520 Speaker 11: metaphor for the relative efficacy of each campaign. I'll be 758 00:39:50,600 --> 00:39:53,359 Speaker 11: looking for who is more on message, who is more 759 00:39:53,480 --> 00:39:56,359 Speaker 11: able to hammer home the economy issue, who is more 760 00:39:56,400 --> 00:40:00,640 Speaker 11: able to frame to their advantage the issue of economy 761 00:40:00,800 --> 00:40:03,719 Speaker 11: as laid out in our conversation here. So I'll be 762 00:40:03,760 --> 00:40:06,600 Speaker 11: looking for those things specifically. Whether that has an impact 763 00:40:06,640 --> 00:40:10,319 Speaker 11: on the actual polls themselves, probably not, but it will 764 00:40:10,360 --> 00:40:14,160 Speaker 11: say a lot about the relative efficiency, again, of each campaign. 765 00:40:14,200 --> 00:40:17,839 Speaker 2: What do you make of this opportunity if I can 766 00:40:18,200 --> 00:40:20,120 Speaker 2: call it that, and I'm not trying to sound cold, 767 00:40:20,160 --> 00:40:22,520 Speaker 2: it's an opportunity to succeed or fail if you're a 768 00:40:22,520 --> 00:40:26,239 Speaker 2: presidential candidate dealing with a major natural disaster like we 769 00:40:26,320 --> 00:40:29,080 Speaker 2: have right now in the southeast. Donald Trump's making a 770 00:40:29,080 --> 00:40:32,440 Speaker 2: bee line to Georgia. He's criticizing Kamala Harris for not 771 00:40:32,520 --> 00:40:35,080 Speaker 2: doing the same. But if you don't do this right, 772 00:40:35,160 --> 00:40:37,600 Speaker 2: of course, it can be a detriment to your campaign. 773 00:40:37,920 --> 00:40:41,160 Speaker 2: And I wonder to the extent that it implies competency 774 00:40:41,680 --> 00:40:43,400 Speaker 2: for the candidate, how important. 775 00:40:42,960 --> 00:40:47,280 Speaker 11: This is Yeah, this goes directly to whether a candy 776 00:40:47,520 --> 00:40:52,120 Speaker 11: looks and acts presidential. So both Harris as well as 777 00:40:52,120 --> 00:40:56,239 Speaker 11: Trump have to behave as such, there's really more downside 778 00:40:56,280 --> 00:41:00,520 Speaker 11: than upside when it comes to a hurricane. Indeed, Americans 779 00:41:00,640 --> 00:41:05,520 Speaker 11: people understand that a hurricane's an act of God. No one, individual, 780 00:41:05,560 --> 00:41:09,200 Speaker 11: government or otherwise can stop it. It's about how you 781 00:41:09,239 --> 00:41:12,240 Speaker 11: react to it, and that's what Americans will be looking 782 00:41:12,280 --> 00:41:15,800 Speaker 11: for in their two possible presidential candidates. 783 00:41:15,840 --> 00:41:18,200 Speaker 2: As we spend time with Cliff Young from IPSOS, let's 784 00:41:18,239 --> 00:41:20,840 Speaker 2: get to it now. I'm scrolling through this very impressive 785 00:41:20,880 --> 00:41:24,440 Speaker 2: deck of research that you've given us, our bespoke deck 786 00:41:24,560 --> 00:41:27,640 Speaker 2: from Cliff, and as you get down to one of 787 00:41:27,640 --> 00:41:30,879 Speaker 2: the final slides here there is a headline the day 788 00:41:30,920 --> 00:41:34,920 Speaker 2: after and a mushroom cloud. Cliff, how worried are we 789 00:41:35,719 --> 00:41:38,360 Speaker 2: about accepting the results of this election, the noise and 790 00:41:38,400 --> 00:41:40,840 Speaker 2: the confusion that's going to follow. And I ask you 791 00:41:40,880 --> 00:41:43,600 Speaker 2: that knowing that based on history, we'll probably see Donald 792 00:41:43,600 --> 00:41:45,600 Speaker 2: Trump declare victory early in the night. 793 00:41:47,320 --> 00:41:49,640 Speaker 11: Yeah, that's a great point. And obviously this is something 794 00:41:49,680 --> 00:41:52,440 Speaker 11: at IPSOS we're worried about, and I think the market 795 00:41:52,480 --> 00:41:56,120 Speaker 11: in general is and the public opinion polling is pretty 796 00:41:56,120 --> 00:41:59,400 Speaker 11: clear on the issue. For the most part, across pitical lines. 797 00:41:59,640 --> 00:42:03,160 Speaker 11: A Maakans are willing to accept the results, you know, 798 00:42:03,320 --> 00:42:08,560 Speaker 11: super majority of support high seventies, low eighties, independent of 799 00:42:08,560 --> 00:42:12,000 Speaker 11: political stripe. As I said, however, Republicans are much more 800 00:42:12,120 --> 00:42:16,680 Speaker 11: likely to believe that the results weren't fair. And that's 801 00:42:16,680 --> 00:42:19,120 Speaker 11: sort of the tale of our world today, that we 802 00:42:19,200 --> 00:42:22,480 Speaker 11: have a very divided America, two sides of the fence. See, 803 00:42:22,520 --> 00:42:25,320 Speaker 11: the issue is completely different. But at the very least 804 00:42:25,440 --> 00:42:28,200 Speaker 11: super majority of Americans would accept, or at least they 805 00:42:28,239 --> 00:42:30,360 Speaker 11: say they would accept the results of the election. 806 00:42:30,480 --> 00:42:33,320 Speaker 2: I'll tell you what if it ends up being that Saturday, 807 00:42:33,360 --> 00:42:35,440 Speaker 2: for instance, like it was four years ago. Just in 808 00:42:35,480 --> 00:42:38,440 Speaker 2: our remaining moment, Cliff, how worried are you that people 809 00:42:38,560 --> 00:42:42,160 Speaker 2: have short memories that might not remember that counting mail 810 00:42:42,239 --> 00:42:45,320 Speaker 2: and absentee ballots takes a long time, that some states 811 00:42:45,440 --> 00:42:47,120 Speaker 2: might take days to settle. 812 00:42:48,400 --> 00:42:51,840 Speaker 11: Yeah, the counting and the time it takes to count 813 00:42:52,320 --> 00:42:56,760 Speaker 11: really undermines the credibility. Indeed, America is an outlier compared 814 00:42:56,800 --> 00:42:59,520 Speaker 11: to other democracies in the world that had those counts 815 00:42:59,520 --> 00:43:03,160 Speaker 11: done the same. And so if this draws out too much, 816 00:43:03,520 --> 00:43:05,600 Speaker 11: and indeed it's going to be a very close election 817 00:43:05,680 --> 00:43:09,319 Speaker 11: in my mind, and it probably will. That doesn't help 818 00:43:09,360 --> 00:43:12,799 Speaker 11: the credibility of the outcome. That only can hurt it. 819 00:43:13,040 --> 00:43:14,960 Speaker 2: I always love it when Cliff comes to hang out 820 00:43:15,200 --> 00:43:17,399 Speaker 2: and spend some time with great research here, Cliff, thank 821 00:43:17,440 --> 00:43:19,520 Speaker 2: you so much. Cliff Young at ipsos with us live 822 00:43:19,520 --> 00:43:22,880 Speaker 2: from Washington on the fastest show in politics. He's been 823 00:43:22,920 --> 00:43:26,560 Speaker 2: a great voice of authority on this campaign from the beginning. 824 00:43:26,600 --> 00:43:27,680 Speaker 1: We've got a month ago here. 825 00:43:27,760 --> 00:43:32,759 Speaker 2: Thank you, Cliff. Thanks for listening to the Balance of 826 00:43:32,840 --> 00:43:36,360 Speaker 2: Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, 827 00:43:36,360 --> 00:43:39,680 Speaker 2: at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts, and 828 00:43:39,719 --> 00:43:42,359 Speaker 2: you can find us live every weekday from Washington, DC 829 00:43:42,520 --> 00:43:45,200 Speaker 2: at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.