Speaker 1: AI bubble warning. There's been a recent AI bubble warning issued,
Speaker 1: a new one. What's your thoughts on this.
Speaker 2: I don't know if bubble is the right term, but
Speaker 2: a few institutions have issued this warning. We'll get to
Speaker 2: Alex in a second. I do think that the AI
Speaker 2: promise has not been delivered. Like I asked a question
Speaker 2: last week and it was slightly controversial for whatever reason
Speaker 2: after but shot to everyone of Microsoft, love you guys,
Speaker 2: seal it from bottle of my heart, one of my
Speaker 2: favorite companies of all time, sat to one of my
Speaker 2: favorite CEOs ever better than Tim Cook, et.
Speaker 3: Cetera, et cetera.
Speaker 2: You can't run your business off co pilot like for
Speaker 2: all the automations that we have and shot to perplexity
Speaker 2: and everything's tied done, Shot to leash you little still
Speaker 2: to this day, I can't set up all these agents
Speaker 2: and then just go off to Mexico and do no
Speaker 2: work for two week and come back and the agents
Speaker 2: have everything done. The first company that provides that kind
Speaker 2: of premise and return they're going to And as a result,
Speaker 2: with even AI not delivering is as well as it should.
Speaker 2: It's obliterated the software category. So bubble no, I think
Speaker 2: people forget Even in the dot com era, it took
Speaker 2: a while for things to be calibrated. I don't think
Speaker 2: it will take that long. But I think we may
Speaker 2: be three or four years off from having systems of
Speaker 2: scale and tech at scale that it really allows you
Speaker 2: to offload your workforce and the cost isn't so high
Speaker 2: to be able to do so. So I wouldn't say bubble,
Speaker 2: but it hasn't delivered on the return that it was
Speaker 2: initially promised. If you can lay off your workforce and
Speaker 2: enjoy more of your life and be off grid and
Speaker 2: just to let the lllms run in the background, like
Speaker 2: that premise, isn't there, Like, I don't, do you guys
Speaker 2: know of anyone. I've asked this question to probably two
Speaker 2: hundred people over the last year. No one is just
Speaker 2: leaving their business to be run solely by lol.
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, the idea.
Speaker 5: I mean, I think one of the greatest minds that
Speaker 5: has lived through both and his business has been benefited
Speaker 5: tremendously because of it, spoke on this recently. Jeff Bezos
Speaker 5: was asked about the bubble, and he said, I want
Speaker 5: you to think of it like this. Right now, businesses
Speaker 5: are being done in terms of picks and shovels, right
Speaker 5: like people are manually doing the work. He said, think
Speaker 5: of AI as a bulldozer. So if you were digging
Speaker 5: with a pick and the shovel, well, bulldozer is about
Speaker 5: to come and make everything happen a lot faster, more efficiently,
Speaker 5: and have more skill and so the actual tax won't
Speaker 5: be replaced. How we get the task done will be altered.
Speaker 5: So companies will survive, some some will falter, but that's business,
Speaker 5: and that's what happens inside of revolutions, especially in the
Speaker 5: technology space. And he has a great vantage point because
Speaker 5: in nineteen ninety seven, yeah, look at what his company
Speaker 5: was and in twenty twenty six, obviously he's not the
Speaker 5: CEO anymore, but look at what that company has grown to,
Speaker 5: right because he was able to adapt, he was able
Speaker 5: to use the technology to his advantage, and he was
Speaker 5: able to scale it. So that's how we got to
Speaker 5: have to look at it. The AI bubble. We've been
Speaker 5: talking about this thing for.
Speaker 4: At least eighteen months now.
Speaker 5: Man, I'm like, okay, okay, if there's gonna be a bubble,
Speaker 5: let's find the companies that are going to be here
Speaker 5: when this.
Speaker 4: So caught bubble burst, who will be the standing companies?
Speaker 5: I think we were spot on with the ones that
Speaker 5: we've been saying for sure, the time will tell, and
Speaker 5: I think we're going to be on the right side
Speaker 5: of it.
Speaker 4: The thoughts.
Speaker 1: Bubble is relative, I feel like, yeah, there's a lot
Speaker 1: of companies that well, it just actually leads to an
Speaker 1: als car Cliff. Actually, look, let's play this. Let's let's
Speaker 1: play the clip from Atlas because that this kind of
Speaker 1: just leads into this conversation.
Speaker 6: The Alex carb going CNBC last week and torch the
Speaker 6: entire AI business model, like Becky Quick had to stop
Speaker 6: a mid rant like you sound pretty angry, and his response,
Speaker 6: this is the voice of American Business Channel through me.
Speaker 6: I mean his rants, they're usually pretty epic, but I
Speaker 6: think he hit on two sticking points that a really
Speaker 6: decide how AI diffuses through the economy. Number one is
Speaker 6: that enterprises are losing trust in a lot of these
Speaker 6: AI model companies. He's saying because they're not safe, and
Speaker 6: safe is a little bit different than you think. So
Speaker 6: let's hear him out.
Speaker 7: Safe because it doesn't touch your unlearning data. Safe because
Speaker 7: it prevents a large language model from caching your data
Speaker 7: and replicating your business safe because it doesn't transfer your
Speaker 7: ip of how to fight secret data, top secret data
Speaker 7: or in a clinical context.
Speaker 6: And the second is that a lot of these large
Speaker 6: enterprise customers are now wanting to own the entire AI stack,
Speaker 6: compute models, their data, all of it. Again, take it away, Alex.
Speaker 6: Here's the structural problem that he's calling out. Your edge
Speaker 6: as a company depends on that proprietary data. Your AI
Speaker 6: vendor depends on their models getting smarter, and how do
Speaker 6: you think they do that? So there's a collision course
Speaker 6: because the labs aren't just selling tokens anymore.
Speaker 1: They're Okay, So Alex Carr, he went on a whole
Speaker 1: rant on CNBC about AI, his frustration with a lot
Speaker 1: of AI companies.
Speaker 3: Mm hm.
Speaker 1: And you know he's been known to go on rants
Speaker 1: from Tom to tom on a variety of different things. Okay,
Speaker 1: so back to the AI bubble thing. AI bubble, yeah
Speaker 1: for sure, because a lot of the companies are not
Speaker 1: built on anything found fund foundationally strong to just putting
Speaker 1: AI in front of their name and just saying we're
Speaker 1: going to do this, We're gonna do that. Like you said,
Speaker 1: I personally have yet to see AI do a variety
Speaker 1: of different things that people think it can do. Like
Speaker 1: even if you look at our world, like AI cannot
Speaker 1: create content. If it did, If it did, everybody would
Speaker 1: be content creator. Yeah, I know, I know this first hand.
Speaker 1: Is it yet or just well until until it's done it,
Speaker 1: we can't.
Speaker 3: We can't. It can help you make content, Yeah, it
Speaker 3: can't make it. It can't future for it can go off
Speaker 3: the past.
Speaker 1: It can make content. It's not it's not it's not good.
Speaker 1: It's not good enough, not great. It's not great. It's
Speaker 1: not great.
Speaker 3: But I can't.
Speaker 1: You would say, okay, I could just make I don't
Speaker 1: think I do no work. I could just make a video.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna have AI cut up and then it's gonna
Speaker 1: get a million views, and that's gonna be my pathway
Speaker 1: to become the next Logan Paul.
Speaker 3: It has not happened mm hmm. I like up clip,
Speaker 3: but but it does.
Speaker 5: Happen for I Just what's happening for I just watched
Speaker 5: AI travel channel that has like ten million followers completely
Speaker 5: made up. She goes in history and takes you through
Speaker 5: history and it feels like off all.
Speaker 1: Yeah, but even that that's different, that's utilizing AI to
Speaker 1: give you, Like we have French Martinis. What we do
Speaker 1: for the content. We can say that we because we
Speaker 1: use AI for our content. So we have French Martana episode.
Speaker 1: A few of those clips. One clip went viral, had
Speaker 1: a million views. We used AI in it because it's
Speaker 1: nar we're telling the story. That's different. That's still an
Speaker 1: editor that's actually knows what they're doing, that's placing AI
Speaker 1: in it, utilizing that's still work involved. I'm saying as
Speaker 1: far as the hands free pilot, I don't got autonomous
Speaker 1: AI is doing everything for me. That's not that hasn't
Speaker 1: happened yet.
Speaker 4: So that's.
Speaker 1: The idea of AI, I think is ahead of the
Speaker 1: reality of AI. The idea of AI is ahead of
Speaker 1: the reality of AI, and a lot of different in
Speaker 1: a lot of different places. We still have We still
Speaker 1: don't have the Jetson's car that we're supposed to have
Speaker 1: twenty five years ago, still waiting for that to happen.
Speaker 1: Like there's still pilots in the sky, the supposed to
Speaker 1: have autonomous planes by now, like commercial I mean, that's
Speaker 1: what that's what you would think would happen at this
Speaker 1: point in time in twenty twenty six, like, that's that's,
Speaker 1: that's what the promise is.
Speaker 3: In ninety we were promm the justice came out on
Speaker 3: what seventy.
Speaker 5: Exactly, I'm saying AI, the current state of AI, the
Speaker 5: revolution that has happened over the past three years. What like,
Speaker 5: we're just doing large language models right now, so like
Speaker 5: what are you basing that off?
Speaker 1: Even the large language models is still being prompted. So
Speaker 1: what I'm saying, like what Ian said, there's still a
Speaker 1: person attached to it, this idea that humans are going
Speaker 1: to be not needed anymore. That's the narrative that's been
Speaker 1: pushed a lot. Humans will be no longer needed. I
Speaker 1: haven't seen that. I haven't seen that the idea, the
Speaker 1: idea of AI has gotten ahead of the practicality of AI.
Speaker 1: Of course, AI is going to be here. AI is
Speaker 1: going to change the world. AI has changing the world
Speaker 1: every single day. But there's a lot of companies that's
Speaker 1: just coming up with random ideas for AI and it's
Speaker 1: not gonna it's not gonna work. And when that, when
Speaker 1: that happens, a lot of these companies are gonna fall
Speaker 1: by the way side.
Speaker 4: And I'm not sure you.
Speaker 3: Tell me what.
Speaker 4: Well, I think we're so early inside.
Speaker 5: I think the argument that's fair to make, uh, is
Speaker 5: that we haven't seen the revenue generated from the spend
Speaker 5: in AI and that takes time right now, Right, so
Speaker 5: we're still we still have infrastructure, yet, we stilln't have
Speaker 5: energy yet, the applications are still trying to get. Software
Speaker 5: hasn't even been put out. Yeah, you have a few
Speaker 5: models platforms that you use, you have five now, but
Speaker 5: like that's drastically gonna change in the next five years, right,
Speaker 5: So I think we're so early that that argument, I
Speaker 5: think still needs time to come to fruition. Right, Like
Speaker 5: obviously Argentic will be here at some point in their
Speaker 5: future autonomous that's it's going to happen.
Speaker 4: It's going to take time for it to happen.
Speaker 5: I think that the fair argument from my standpoint would
Speaker 5: be and I could agree and kind of what Alex
Speaker 5: is saying here is, yes, the spend and the cap X,
Speaker 5: where's the return the other return for a lot of
Speaker 5: companies yet, right, you can't.
Speaker 4: You wouldn't say that for Micron there's been a return.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I said they were the smart them SK and video.
Speaker 2: But the premise of the adel. But for open A
Speaker 2: like I've been using chat since twenty into twenty one
Speaker 2: or twenty two. Even the premister on the business side
Speaker 2: or consumer side, a lot of the stuff that they
Speaker 2: said that could do it hasn't been able to do.
Speaker 2: Even like when Charlotte Mae makee that post like Ian
Speaker 2: you're in trouble, open aie out and choles like no
Speaker 2: you need human intuition like it can. And even for
Speaker 2: investing open AI, when you prompted it last and best
Speaker 2: fast for what the next stocks were going to be,
Speaker 2: it got all of the wrong. So I think there's
Speaker 2: a way to go. But I think the initial premise
Speaker 2: and promise for what is being spent in terms of
Speaker 2: like uh, he talked about tooking pricing and then the
Speaker 2: thing I've been always asking, how do you get five
Speaker 2: extra I said it with open a eye, okay, going
Speaker 2: to okay, why you need to sell five percent of
Speaker 2: opening off to the government if you got a machine
Speaker 2: that could replicate.
Speaker 3: God, you're bullshitting on one side or another.
Speaker 1: And it's just it's just even I must you change
Speaker 1: a company from a car company to a robotic company.
Speaker 1: There's no need to have one hundred million humanoid robot.
Speaker 1: It's not going to happen. It's a fairy tale. That's
Speaker 1: a fairy tale. It's not going to happen. It's never
Speaker 1: gonna it's not gonna happen.
Speaker 2: Because that's the case, they would have just traded the
Speaker 2: arbitrage on if the model was that fucking great to
Speaker 2: open the shot, to open the eye. But if the
Speaker 2: model was that great, you would have traded arbitrage every
Speaker 2: day to not raise capital. That was the first sign
Speaker 2: to me, this ship with work. That's what the topic
Speaker 2: does not have that issue.
Speaker 5: That's why I think the keyword is yet right, because
Speaker 5: the one thing that we do know about the models
Speaker 5: is that even as we're talking, they're getting better.
Speaker 3: Right.
Speaker 5: And so three years ago we sat here to a
Speaker 5: t like you said, open a iur lead, You said,
Speaker 5: open a I wourl lead.
Speaker 4: Is it our leader today?
Speaker 3: No? It adjusted adjustment model.
Speaker 5: That that goes to the case that that models are
Speaker 5: getting better. Right, in a year, we might not even
Speaker 5: say open AI is our leader. It might be something
Speaker 5: different because something would have surpassed it. So we're still
Speaker 5: early in this.
Speaker 2: I think they've already been surpassed, and I brought up
Speaker 2: to and also to the Elon.
Speaker 3: This will always be telling y'all that beef. It doesn't help.
Speaker 2: The Elon battle destroyed the company because the Lenz he
Speaker 2: was willing to go. And then here comes anthrop pick.
Speaker 2: They take the lead. The model is but anytime you
Speaker 2: get to asking for.
Speaker 3: That two hundred cool.
Speaker 4: So I'm happy with it.
Speaker 5: And that kind of ties back into the invented Nvidia piece. Right,
Speaker 5: I'm going to put the capital, I'm going to give
Speaker 5: the compute. Un let's see who comes back with the
Speaker 5: thing that is going to lead. I think that the Alice.
Speaker 5: I watched that thing live, so it's just if you
Speaker 5: haven't seen it. It's a seven minute segment. But I'm
Speaker 5: glad we cut this piece because he keeps bringing the
Speaker 5: word up safe, safe, safe, and if you think about safe,
Speaker 5: I keep hearing him talking about In my mind, he's
Speaker 5: talking about his own company.
Speaker 4: Why are we shitting?
Speaker 5: Why are we getting beat when these people aren't inching
Speaker 5: money and we have the idea and the platform and
Speaker 5: the technology to keep he was talking his own book
Speaker 5: for sure, we want to keep you safe. Right, we
Speaker 5: have the government contracts. Our platform is the place those
Speaker 5: applications aren't ready yet.
Speaker 4: These people are trying to spend and spend.
Speaker 5: Now, the AI model is, hey, we're going to build
Speaker 5: inside of our in house, which again two things can
Speaker 5: be true, because we just I just read the report
Speaker 5: that Broadcom and Google Google might say, hey, you know what,
Speaker 5: We're going to use our own silicone to build our
Speaker 5: own TVU.
Speaker 4: We may not need you anymore.
Speaker 5: At the same time, Apple says, okay, cool, broad Coom,
Speaker 5: you're going to be our partner into twenty thirty one. Right,
Speaker 5: So people are saying, how can we keep the stack inside?
Speaker 5: The problem with that theory is that how many companies
Speaker 5: can afford to keep the entire stack? Not many three three,
Speaker 5: maybe not even Google Amazon.
Speaker 3: Maybe they put up some money, but they won't.
Speaker 4: But they won't, So that that's such a limited space.
Speaker 5: How many people can actually do that, right, So it
Speaker 5: becomes not a monopoly, But I mean it is a
Speaker 5: monopoly in the sense if I'm doing everything in house.
Speaker 5: So he's saying the right thing, but he's also promoting
Speaker 5: what they do, right, because why is the software space
Speaker 5: getting beat down?
Speaker 2: Right?
Speaker 3: AI is software?
Speaker 2: That's the other funny part of that is what I'm
Speaker 2: saying for those who don't know AI is software. But
Speaker 2: going back to depictions and shovels Micron AMD until when
Speaker 2: they got selected they made a great return on capital. Conversation,
Speaker 2: put this in check. Every business is in the hedge
Speaker 2: front business? How much more? And can I make you?
Speaker 2: How much can I save you? How reliable can I
Speaker 2: be if I made you money? Please put yes and jet.
Speaker 2: What open AI has not done. They haven't done a
Speaker 2: great job of letting the consumer base know how much
Speaker 2: easier your life can be. Even like when open claw
Speaker 2: came out, that was an issue. Deep sequeens an issue.
Speaker 2: And then also too, we haven't had an American company
Speaker 2: that is open sourcing yet. That's the real trojan forest
Speaker 2: in threats. Yes, that could lead to enterprise growth kind
Speaker 2: of like, but now we get into the Microsoft, we're
Speaker 2: going to open source it and let you be in
Speaker 2: our ecosystem.
Speaker 3: But what open sourcing? There's gonna come some ip and
Speaker 3: idea theft.
Speaker 2: It happened with words for those who don't know, Like,
Speaker 2: even though Microsoft my biggest favorite company of all time.
Speaker 3: The origins are still nefarious.
Speaker 4: So even if they open source, what platform will they
Speaker 4: build on? What's the first place Whe's the first place
Speaker 4: they're going on we try to go home.
Speaker 3: Ya gotta go to the mothership mh.
Speaker 5: So that so even an open source right, you can
Speaker 5: see KOA still being the software that they're gonna build.
Speaker 3: You got you gotta go to the maltorship.
Speaker 2: And that's why like the suppression of Nvidia, because if
Speaker 2: we argue motes, they literally have.
Speaker 3: Governmental motes on both sides.
Speaker 2: They have the spend, they have the hardware, they have
Speaker 2: the platform, the partnership and likability. I don't get the compression,
Speaker 2: I really don't, but it's going back to people are
Speaker 2: just chasing in return and I were chasing quality.
Speaker 5: I saw somebody in the chat said three hundred by
Speaker 5: the end of the year. I'm not mad at I'm
Speaker 5: not mad at the video at Like in the two seventies,
Speaker 5: by the NDA, I can I can see the path
Speaker 5: forward the consolidation now.
Speaker 4: Is it frustrating?
Speaker 5: Yeah, what's also frustrating is that people telling me like, yo,
Speaker 5: video doesn't move.
Speaker 4: I'm like, what what are we talking about?
Speaker 3: Like yeah, because.
Speaker 2: Everybody everybody's looking to trade, they're not looking to and
Speaker 2: that shit breaks my heart because it's going you're gonna
Speaker 2: see me and like in one of them other countries,
Speaker 2: what another place? But no, I should have listened. You
Speaker 2: should have, you should have. It doesn't move for the
Speaker 2: gambler in you. If you have some capital in it.
Speaker 2: Fifty grand, one hundred grand, two hundred grand.
Speaker 3: It is a beacon of safety for sure. What's the
Speaker 3: outlook for TSM?
Speaker 5: TSM is, for those not to know, the number one
Speaker 5: UH manufacturer and packaging company for semiconductors in the world.
Speaker 5: I think at this point did they produce eighty to
Speaker 5: ninety percent of the world semi conductors? And so when
Speaker 5: I talk about my favorite companies, this is at the
Speaker 5: top of the list when we talk about the most
Speaker 5: important companies, obviously at.
Speaker 4: The top of the list.
Speaker 5: They report on the sixteenth, which I believe is next Wednesday,
Speaker 5: earlier expectations. Right now they're looking at a fifty percent
Speaker 5: jump in revenue, which is absolutely ridiculous. The future guidance
Speaker 5: looks like they're going to increase it as well. I
Speaker 5: think TSM and I like that it reports early. It
Speaker 5: reports before everybody, because it will tell us are they
Speaker 5: getting orders from in Video? How high last quarter? They
Speaker 5: said in Video's orders were in such high demand that
Speaker 5: they passed Apple as their number one client, right, so
Speaker 5: much so that TSM said, Okay, we've got so much
Speaker 5: demand that we might have to offshoot some of our
Speaker 5: demand to some of these companies, which is why we
Speaker 5: talked about AMCRE as a company that's going to be
Speaker 5: a beneficiary of that. There's another company, but South Korean
Speaker 5: one ACI that we can't directly invest in, So we'll
Speaker 5: go with AMCRE for now. But that demand story will
Speaker 5: be on the forefront. Is in Vidio still having that
Speaker 5: same level demand as Apple's demand, is the appetite still
Speaker 5: there is AMD's demand. So there AMD is, like I mean,
Speaker 5: we was up twenty dollars today over I think it
Speaker 5: was at five to seventy today.
Speaker 4: What does that demand story look like?
Speaker 5: You're going to see the AI hyperscalers come to the
Speaker 5: forefront and if TSM is able to say, hey, demand
Speaker 5: has peaked again, now we're going to see another start
Speaker 5: of ticking up of that semi conductor space in the
Speaker 5: technology space because capax hasn't slowed down, In fact, it's
Speaker 5: getting increased. The demand hasn't slowed down. Have companies pulled back, yeah,
Speaker 5: have people taken profits?
Speaker 4: Yeah? You know, my favorite question, has a story changed.
Speaker 2: No, TSM should be at six hundred and eighteen months,
Speaker 2: and we can argue if it was an American born
Speaker 2: and bred, it probably.
Speaker 3: Be number one.
Speaker 4: We're getting closer for real like.
Speaker 2: Hole for the long term and before we grap I
Speaker 2: don't know for close wrapping.
Speaker 3: Please put in chat. I only need four stocks to
Speaker 3: hold on two lifetime.
Speaker 2: I had an interest in conversation with a brother in
Speaker 2: stock Club his granddad in nineteen eighty stock club put
Speaker 2: yes and chat. If you saw it in telegram, eighty shares.
Speaker 2: If you would have held it through all the splits,
Speaker 2: would have turned into seventeen thousand shares. So even in
Speaker 2: the desire to want to sell off early, some of
Speaker 2: these companies are going to have to split, and then
Speaker 2: you go from having one hundred shares to one thousand
Speaker 2: shares or one hundred to five hundred. There's only upside
Speaker 2: potential if you're holding equities for a long period of time.
Speaker 2: You only need four that you're going to marry. Like
Speaker 2: even Rashat talked about it earlier. Even with Q you
Speaker 2: can't go wrong. I know something, But what about TQQ
Speaker 2: and what about TUCO? Yeah, you can add exotics on
Speaker 2: top of it. But your core four have to be
Speaker 2: ones that you never like. You never wake up in
Speaker 2: the middle of the night worried about v'all or VT
Speaker 2: or vu G or Q.
Speaker 3: You only need four.
Speaker 2: My question for you is why you're not executed Because
Speaker 2: you want to gamble mm hmm, and if you gamble,
Speaker 2: you deserve to be broke. I think you deserve to
Speaker 2: be rich and wealthy hole for.
Speaker 3: The long term.
Speaker 2: But at this point I've been really do what you
Speaker 2: want to do. If you want to blow through your
Speaker 2: money and mess up your money, I'm not. If you
Speaker 2: want to, I love that for you.
Speaker 4: You're right, Well, you're right, you're right. How about your
Speaker 4: way