Speaker 1: Hey, everybody, welcome back to another episode of the Betting
Speaker 1: Pros NFL Podcast. I'm your host, Dan Harris. With me,
Speaker 1: of course, is Matt Parral. You can find us on
Speaker 1: Twitter at Dan Harris Adian at Sports Talk. Matt, Matt,
Speaker 1: how are you on this fine Thursday evening.
Speaker 2: I'm rolling up my sleeves as we speak. Let's get
Speaker 2: to work here. We need to go, all right, I
Speaker 2: I this week sucks. That means we're gonna have a
Speaker 2: great week.
Speaker 1: Oh my god. I was legitimately thinking the same thing.
Speaker 1: I felt pretty good about the last couple of weeks,
Speaker 1: and we have just kind of been treading water and
Speaker 1: a little bit under treading water where we need to go,
Speaker 1: and now I feel terrible about it. So I'm ready
Speaker 1: to just go.
Speaker 2: Fine O.
Speaker 1: All right, let's do our usual PSAs before we recap
Speaker 1: last week, can get into this week's games discord? Of course,
Speaker 1: I'm Matt on how many we're like pushing a thousand.
Speaker 2: At this point one thousand. We're about nine to fifty
Speaker 2: right now for people who are on it. I mean
Speaker 2: during football games, we're approaching you know, two fifty three
Speaker 2: hundred people at a time that are on it. It's
Speaker 2: really cool because I figured out a feature that when
Speaker 2: I play prop bets, there's an at everyone features and
Speaker 2: I can send it out to everyone so everyone sees
Speaker 2: the ads that they make, which I found that to
Speaker 2: be incredibly cool last night.
Speaker 1: So I'm aware because I've seen them them up and
Speaker 1: I've been like, wait, what's going on. Is Matt trying
Speaker 1: to talk to me?
Speaker 2: Oh?
Speaker 1: No, He's just telling everyone in our Discord channel that
Speaker 1: he's got a prop bet, which is great. I actually
Speaker 1: that's a great idea because as you know, sometimes I'm
Speaker 1: the worst person ever. You guys know, I do a
Speaker 1: ton of fantasy, especially on Sunday mornings. Sometimes I am
Speaker 1: too late and I don't get my props into Matt.
Speaker 1: So worst comes to worse, I'll put on Discord now
Speaker 1: at everyone, so everybody knows that if I don't get
Speaker 1: it to Matt by the time he does his YouTube
Speaker 1: stream at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros but anyway,
Speaker 1: the best you can go to join our Discord Bettingpros
Speaker 1: dot com slash chat. We are also giving away an
Speaker 1: AJ Brown helmet so you can get assigned helmet team
Speaker 1: get that as well. Again, Betting Pros dot com slash chat. Second,
Speaker 1: our prop bet cheat cheap bettingpros dot com slash props
Speaker 1: consider compare consensus projections to the available props in the market. Again,
Speaker 1: we're still tweaking it. We're still getting it up to
Speaker 1: day and everything like that. But you can go check
Speaker 1: it out offer some good ones, all right. So let's
Speaker 1: get to every game on this weekend. First, the three cap.
Speaker 1: Last weeks, once again we have gone three and two.
Speaker 1: We went three and two for like six weeks straight.
Speaker 1: Now we're two and three and back to back weeks.
Speaker 1: I believe we are now twenty what is it, twenty
Speaker 1: three and twenty two. I believe overall we're one game up,
Speaker 1: whatever it is. Fifty one point one percent hit on
Speaker 1: the Ravens lank two and a half to the Culture,
Speaker 1: which is a game that I liked that we switched
Speaker 1: in thankfully for the Chiefs game that we had settled
Speaker 1: on last week. And we also liked the Saints getting
Speaker 1: four and a half from the Bucks, which we hit on,
Speaker 1: but we missed on the Seahawks getting two and a
Speaker 1: half from the Bills. The Bills are like, you know,
Speaker 1: our kryptonite or Matts kryptonite, that's for sure.
Speaker 2: The court trill, who I made good money on the
Speaker 2: bills betting its bills this year.
Speaker 1: That's fair, that's fair, I bet. I just mean you
Speaker 1: hate them. I bet cards, the cards laying four and
Speaker 1: a half to the Dolphins and the pass lank seven
Speaker 1: a half to the Jet's goodness, gracious, we're not even
Speaker 1: gonna talk about that Monday night game. So wait, three
Speaker 1: eighty fourth out of six eighty nine. We've got ways
Speaker 1: to go, but not in any way out of it
Speaker 1: at all. At this point. We've got plenty of time
Speaker 1: to catch up, but we've got to get going now.
Speaker 1: So it's gonna take a big week or two or three.
Speaker 1: So let's get started right now with a week that
Speaker 1: I hate, which you hate, which we're gonna go five
Speaker 1: and oh so start us off. What's your number one pick?
Speaker 2: All right? So I'm going to I went through and
Speaker 2: I tried to kind of game theory based upon the
Speaker 2: numbers for DraftKings. Okay, and so I have been getting
Speaker 2: caught because now that I'm in the West Gate and
Speaker 2: I'm in the DraftKings and I'm in the Circa, these
Speaker 2: numbers matter right at this point in the year, there's
Speaker 2: enough algorithms, there's enough information out there where the lines
Speaker 2: can be very very sharp. This is where it gets
Speaker 2: very difficult. This is when the public loses their sh
Speaker 2: shirt from this week, Week ten on the NFL's very hard.
Speaker 2: So when there's line discrepancies, I'm gonna be those are
Speaker 2: going to raise red flags to me. So the bucks
Speaker 2: are four and a half in our contest, yep, they
Speaker 2: are five and a half six in climbing as we
Speaker 2: roll here. I'm not saying it's a bad idea if
Speaker 2: you get to seven or six and a half to
Speaker 2: take the Panthers here plus the points. But in our
Speaker 2: contest it's four and a half. It's below my hated five.
Speaker 2: It's a bounce back spot. And I believe the Panthers
Speaker 2: decided that they wanted to beat the Chiefs so badly
Speaker 2: that they would go and do anything to have the
Speaker 2: scalp that they could run around and say, Matt rule
Speaker 2: a year one beat the defending champs on the road
Speaker 2: because Christian McCaffrey should have been on a pitch count
Speaker 2: last week. He wasn't. They forced in the ball so
Speaker 2: much that they got him hurt. So now that after
Speaker 2: changing their offense to fit in McCaffrey, they got to
Speaker 2: go back to having him not be there. I know
Speaker 2: that Bridgewater is a cover machine, but that pathetic effort
Speaker 2: by the They're gonna turn things around this week. I
Speaker 2: like the Bucks even on the road to lay it
Speaker 2: down on the Panthers. I'm gonna lay the four and
Speaker 2: a half tampamize four and a half.
Speaker 1: Far and away, my number one pick, Far and away,
Speaker 1: like maybe the only game that I really was like, yep,
Speaker 1: this is one I absolutely want. I mean, if I'm
Speaker 1: if I'm poking a hole in it. It's just that
Speaker 1: Teddy Bridgewater covers. Teddy Bridgewater is the cover machine. It
Speaker 1: is what he does. But it just doesn't matter to me.
Speaker 1: You buying low on the Bucks after that embarrassing performance.
Speaker 1: Tom Brady off a loss he usually covers. As you
Speaker 1: mentioned about McCaffrey, he's out for this game. It's gonna
Speaker 1: be Mike Davis, who again it played really well for
Speaker 1: several games, but then he wore down. He played kind
Speaker 1: of poorly the last three games. So that this is
Speaker 1: this is no brainer to me, absolutely at four and
Speaker 1: a half. And you're right that the spread is rising
Speaker 1: and that that that's a great point, Matt. When do
Speaker 1: the lines lock at the Circa and and the.
Speaker 2: Other one when they come out, I mean basically either
Speaker 2: Wednesday or third day. It's on COVID problems. So if
Speaker 2: big COVID issues Circa and Westgate can they can hold
Speaker 2: on to it. Sometimes I find out exactly who's playing,
Speaker 2: but mostly it's Wednesday or Wednesday afternoon Thursday, same time
Speaker 2: as the DraftKings. There's just different. There's discrepancies in the
Speaker 2: numbers that are quite glaring. Like in the circle of
Speaker 2: this it's five and a half, so it's four and
Speaker 2: a half. We're getting extra point here.
Speaker 1: Yeah, there's no brainer. On our bed analyzer, it's this
Speaker 1: spread right now is the consensus sign is minus six,
Speaker 1: and it's still overwhelmingly on the bucks.
Speaker 2: I think seven. You may talk me into the Panthers,
Speaker 2: but four and a half I'm taking tap.
Speaker 1: Yeah, four and a half without that, Okay, So maybe
Speaker 1: we will agree. I'm coming in here, Matt, and I'm
Speaker 1: expecting us not to really agree on all of these
Speaker 1: just because it's so ugly, but you might given the
Speaker 1: way your preface to this entire week, which is where
Speaker 1: the public's gonna lose their shirt. Maybe you won't hate
Speaker 1: all of these. I really don't know. Let me see
Speaker 1: which one I wanted to start with here. Okay, I'll
Speaker 1: get one which think you'll like, but we'll see about it.
Speaker 1: The forty nine Ers getting nine and a half from
Speaker 1: the Saints. So here here's number one. I think the
Speaker 1: Saints are going to be a very public play, if
Speaker 1: for no other reason, then of course, the very classic.
Speaker 1: They absolutely destroyed the Bucks and the forty nine Ers
Speaker 1: look like perhaps the worst team in football on Thursday night. Now,
Speaker 1: I realize you don't have Jimmy Garoppolo. I realize you
Speaker 1: don't have George Kittle, But Kyle Shannan is a fantastic coach.
Speaker 1: He is going to figure out a way to improve
Speaker 1: the offense. You're gonna get at least Brandon aiyuk back.
Speaker 1: Sounds like maybe Deebo Samuel will need another week. The
Speaker 1: running backs are gonna need another week? Which are I mean?
Speaker 1: Kiinnon is fine if it gets to work. I think
Speaker 1: Kendrick Bourne, who's currently on the COVID list, is probably
Speaker 1: gonna be able to come off. And again, this just
Speaker 1: strikes me as a very huge overreaction to what happened
Speaker 1: last week, so I'd love it if it were a ten.
Speaker 1: Spreads actually down to nine in our consensus lines, and
Speaker 1: the people in our bed on liies are leaning towards
Speaker 1: the Saints. But it's ugly, But I like forty nine
Speaker 1: ers getting nine and a half. Here.
Speaker 2: You could pick all the boards one game, but this
Speaker 2: is the game you're choosing.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's correct, right.
Speaker 2: You want to bet on a backup quarterback, back up,
Speaker 2: running back, back up, backup, offensive line, backup, backup, defensive line, backup, secondary,
Speaker 2: and this is the pick against a team that just
Speaker 2: whipped and looked amazing against the Bucks.
Speaker 1: Oh do so? I'm sorry, Just to be clear, are
Speaker 1: we supposed to be like wow, that team just absolutely
Speaker 1: destroyed the Bucks after, by the way, nearly losing to
Speaker 1: the Bears the Bears, Like, let I'm not overreacting to
Speaker 1: a week. This is what I said. I knew you
Speaker 1: were going to hate this pack. I almost I tell
Speaker 1: you said the public, I'm going to be the most
Speaker 1: will the best line.
Speaker 2: I'm willing. I'm willing to listen to it.
Speaker 1: Go ahead.
Speaker 2: Okay, I wouldn't listen to it and put it in
Speaker 2: the maybe category. I'm just saying, of all that you
Speaker 2: have the board to play with the board.
Speaker 1: This is how every pick is ugly, Matt, every pick
Speaker 1: is ugly this week. But yes, let me tell you,
Speaker 1: what do you think the public split is going to
Speaker 1: be on this game? What do you think the public well,
Speaker 1: how much.
Speaker 2: I think it'll get to ten and then I mean,
Speaker 2: I think it just depends on how high the line
Speaker 2: will go. I think if we get over eleven or twelve,
Speaker 2: I think you'll see buy back.
Speaker 1: But I think you're gonna see by I think I
Speaker 1: think what you're gonna see. And I could be wrong.
Speaker 1: And you, you, frankly, you, because you've been out there
Speaker 1: so much, you have so much great insight, you understand
Speaker 1: it more. I think there's gonna be a ton of
Speaker 1: public play on the Saints this week, and I don't
Speaker 1: think that line's well.
Speaker 2: I think on the East Coast. You gotta remember that
Speaker 2: in Vegas we have a lot of California people, So
Speaker 2: that tend that tends to keep the California team's lines
Speaker 2: to be a little bit in check. Yep, because if
Speaker 2: you go double digits, just people here in Vegas are
Speaker 2: smart enough and they're from California. A lot of them.
Speaker 2: They're going, you know what, the Niners are gonna keep
Speaker 2: the game close. But my problem is they're gonna have
Speaker 2: to run the football, and I think that's the one
Speaker 2: thing the Saints actually do a good job of stopping.
Speaker 1: They do so they do they do. I agree, but
Speaker 1: I think you're gonna give this team off a nationally
Speaker 1: televised just absolute chi lacking where they didn't have any man.
Speaker 1: I do fantasy football for a living and I barely
Speaker 1: I could pick Richie James out of a lineup who
Speaker 1: had one hundred and seventy yards right and the TOUCHDOWN'M like,
Speaker 1: that's what they were looking at. I uk is a
Speaker 1: huge get to have back, as is I expect Kendrick Bourne,
Speaker 1: who I know people look here, but it's fine. Look,
Speaker 1: there was one game this week that I was going
Speaker 1: to push and it was the Bucks. That's the only
Speaker 1: one I was going to basically lie in the mat for.
Speaker 1: There are no other games. So trust me. The fact
Speaker 1: that I chose this game next, it was only because
Speaker 1: I was like, with this, maybe fits into Matt's narrative,
Speaker 1: maybe he'll go for it, So go ahead to your
Speaker 1: next one.
Speaker 2: Just it's just ugly, Okay, so my next one is
Speaker 2: a number that I would prefer to go down to three,
Speaker 2: But it's three and a half for our contest, and
Speaker 2: I don't I don't hate it at three and a half. Again,
Speaker 2: I would preferred to three. But I think the Houston
Speaker 2: Texans are done. And I think if you look at
Speaker 2: the weather, okay, so this is what it's gonna be bad,
Speaker 2: windy again, nasty and cold, okay, which is not Houston
Speaker 2: Texans weather. Ye not. You can't fill the ball deep again, Okay.
Speaker 2: So the same logic that we took this took the
Speaker 2: Raiders to beat the Browns is the same logic. I'm
Speaker 2: taking the Browns to win here because you're gonna get
Speaker 2: Nick Chubb back, looks like. So you have two running
Speaker 2: backs that are decent, and I don't think David Johnson's
Speaker 2: questionable for this game for the Texans, I don't think
Speaker 2: they can run the football all that well, I don't.
Speaker 2: I mean, Deshaun Watson might be their best running back
Speaker 2: in this game.
Speaker 1: I just think give Duke Johnson some credit. Matt Duke
Speaker 1: Johnson is fine, okay, perfectly.
Speaker 2: He's not gonna beat the brown by himself on the road, Okay,
Speaker 2: three out of that rather the three. But Cleveland minus
Speaker 2: three and a half, I think from a pick play
Speaker 2: I don't know if I'll bet it. I might bet it,
Speaker 2: But from a pick play perspective, I like Cleveland to
Speaker 2: cover that three and a half point line.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm on the other side. I'm on the other side.
Speaker 2: Wow, I'm not gonna be The Texans play a two
Speaker 2: and six football team.
Speaker 1: Explain this to me, Okay, we like I mean, DVOA
Speaker 1: is not the be all and all right of teams,
Speaker 1: of course, but it's Aguell. The Texans are a better
Speaker 1: team by DVOA than the Browns. I don't think the
Speaker 1: Browns are really that good of a football team here, Matt,
Speaker 1: especially when you're without Odell Beckham junior. Now, I get
Speaker 1: they're gonna get Chubb back, They're gonna be able to
Speaker 1: run the ball. Absolutely, But again, if this were.
Speaker 2: You believe in DVOA, then then you know that the
Speaker 2: rushing defense for the Texans is one of the worst
Speaker 2: in the whole.
Speaker 1: Fact that the Browns can run on anybody. But I
Speaker 1: agree they're gonna run the Raiders.
Speaker 2: That's why I put the Raiders. They couldn't run on
Speaker 2: the Raiders.
Speaker 1: All right, that's fair. But with Chubb, who I do
Speaker 1: expect to be back here, they're gonna be able to
Speaker 1: run with him and hunt. No Beckham, I think is
Speaker 1: a bigger loss than kind of weird, fully.
Speaker 2: Right, But in this weather condition, he wouldn't be a
Speaker 2: factor anyway.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I I first of all, as far as I
Speaker 1: can tell, Matt, and you tell me what's the exact forecast,
Speaker 1: because this is.
Speaker 2: Not wins okay, which is the biggest issue of anything
Speaker 2: when it comes to Yeah, it's gonna be cold, it's
Speaker 2: gonna be windy, it's gonna be like the same weather
Speaker 2: conditions as the last time the rate we talked about
Speaker 2: the Browns with the Raiders, and we were all over
Speaker 2: the Raiders and we won that game out right, sixteen
Speaker 2: to six. So I think the under is in play
Speaker 2: in this game major But and I think with the
Speaker 2: under in play, that favors the Browns.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I just don't. I don't know, man. And you
Speaker 1: know what's funny. You know what's funny, Matt, And it's
Speaker 1: if people listening to this, I don't know if they
Speaker 1: listen to our fantasy podcast. We did a DFS show
Speaker 1: today with Chris Rabahn of the Action Network. Do you know, Chris, Yeah,
Speaker 1: of course this is great. Legitimately, Matt, this was both
Speaker 1: of our like one of our better picks on the board.
Speaker 1: It randomly came up because we were talking about fantasy
Speaker 1: and he was like, I like the Texans getting three
Speaker 1: and a half. And I was like, yes, I'm gonna
Speaker 1: use this when I talk about it with Matt Barral
Speaker 1: on our show today. The fact that Chris also likes
Speaker 1: them against them, I don't know, man. I think this
Speaker 1: is just gonna be a close game. I agree that
Speaker 1: the wind is gonna be bad. Deshaun Watson, though, can
Speaker 1: run certainly. And I also I think Duke Johnson is
Speaker 1: just as good as David Johnson at this point in
Speaker 1: his career. I realized that he's never been given the
Speaker 1: rock to sort of do what he can do. But
Speaker 1: I do not I do not view this as a downgrad.
Speaker 1: I think they can jump off the ball a lot.
Speaker 1: I think you're, you know, maybe, yeah, it's gonna hamper
Speaker 1: the constant deep shots, but you know, the Browns can't
Speaker 1: stop the pass, you know, between Will Fuller and Brandon Cooks.
Speaker 1: I just view this as a very close game. If
Speaker 1: it was under a field goal, I might go for it,
Speaker 1: but with the hook. No, don't like it. I don't
Speaker 1: like it. So we're off. We're off. This is an
Speaker 1: ugly week, we know. Oh boy, you're gonna hate this one. Ready,
Speaker 1: let's got your first one.
Speaker 2: I might read hit your second one.
Speaker 1: I had to think about it, Matt. My other one
Speaker 1: that I was going to bring up instead of my
Speaker 1: first one was the Texans getting three and four. So
Speaker 1: you you see where we're all them. Let's actually see
Speaker 1: where a bed analyzer has this one. I just want
Speaker 1: to know exactly where it is because it strikes me. Oh,
Speaker 1: it is basically split. It's basically split at three and
Speaker 1: a half. It's fifty six percent in favor of Houston.
Speaker 1: I am one of that fifty six percent because I've
Speaker 1: already put in my picker. Okay, you know what really
Speaker 1: feels like a great idea this week? Matt betting a
Speaker 1: team that doesn't know how to win and cannot win
Speaker 1: a single game no matter what they do against the
Speaker 1: team that's riding super super high after two giant wins.
Speaker 2: And that is the charge where you're taking the charges
Speaker 2: of the road to get the charger.
Speaker 1: There is no, two and a half. There is no
Speaker 1: way from the Dolphins.
Speaker 2: That it's not even worth having having this conversation right now.
Speaker 2: This is such a big problem for the Chargers when
Speaker 2: it comes to going on the road on the East Coast.
Speaker 2: And you could say, well, it's Anthony Lynn getting away
Speaker 2: from the public, getting away from the media, and they
Speaker 2: might be able to go and win a game like this,
Speaker 2: But against that defense, I forget too, But forget against
Speaker 2: that defense. Uh uh, that's a scary that's a scary game.
Speaker 2: To go ahead. I love the Herbert you know, he
Speaker 2: wants to prove his draft pick against tu a Angle.
Speaker 2: I love all that. But that defense for the Dolphins
Speaker 2: is legitimate.
Speaker 1: The defense for the Dolphins is good. The defense for
Speaker 1: the Dolphins is good, I agree, and you know, because
Speaker 1: they're basically scoring defensive touch on stuff like that. But
Speaker 1: they're not. I mean, first of all, Arizona should have
Speaker 1: won that game, you know, for many reasons, but they
Speaker 1: outgained them significantly in yardage. I think the Dolphins have
Speaker 1: defense scores.
Speaker 2: When you when you get a defensive score and back
Speaker 2: to back weeks, you win most weeks like that's okay,
Speaker 2: that's huge.
Speaker 1: Time are you are you thinking on a defensive score
Speaker 1: in the game.
Speaker 2: Maybe it I'm just saying it's possible. That's what. That's
Speaker 2: why I'm scared of the game, because it's like, oh,
Speaker 2: I mean Herbert gets hit a lot. I mean he's
Speaker 2: under pressure. I think the number. I think he's like
Speaker 2: number three in the NFL right now in terms of
Speaker 2: passing under pressure. I mean, the dude is great, but
Speaker 2: he gets pressure because his offensive line doesn't block anybody.
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I understand. We to look without Preston Williams. Okay,
Speaker 1: they've got DeVante Parker. I mean, Toua looked good to
Speaker 1: be To be fair, he looked good. They rolled him
Speaker 1: out of the pocket, they let him use his legs
Speaker 1: a little bit. That was good. I just don't think.
Speaker 1: I mean, they have no running backs. I don't know
Speaker 1: which one of their fifty, you know, guy off the
Speaker 1: street running backs is gonna be running the ball. I
Speaker 1: just don't trust them to be able to put up
Speaker 1: a ton of points. And look, I'm not gonna I'm
Speaker 1: not gonna stand up there again.
Speaker 2: One. Dolphins are on my list, by the way, I
Speaker 2: have Dolphins myst two and a half on my line.
Speaker 1: Right Well, where we're off to a rocky start and
Speaker 1: go to your next go to your next one. Hopefully
Speaker 1: we find some games that were at least on the
Speaker 1: same side.
Speaker 2: Of Okay, I don't like this number, but I'm gonna
Speaker 2: play it anyway. But because I think there's a chance
Speaker 2: they win the game outright, Big Ben's on schedule to
Speaker 2: play for the Pittsburgh Steelers. That's great news for me.
Speaker 2: I like the Bengals plus six and a half to
Speaker 2: potentially win this game outright. I think this is an
Speaker 2: interesting matchup with the Bengals match up better.
Speaker 1: And it's good news for you that Ben is gonna play.
Speaker 2: Yes, Ben Roethlisberger is not playing well at all. His
Speaker 2: number rat.
Speaker 1: You think it's better for the Bengals if Ben plays
Speaker 1: than Mason Rudolph.
Speaker 2: Yeah, because I think in terms of the way that
Speaker 2: they'll approach the game, I think without with Rudolph, they'll
Speaker 2: be more conservative, they'll run the football more, the defense
Speaker 2: will know they have to play better. I just think
Speaker 2: that this is a chance here for this. I think
Speaker 2: they could win the game outright, but if not, they'll
Speaker 2: keep the game close. I would prefer seven, but I'll
Speaker 2: take the six and a half points and I'll take
Speaker 2: the Bengals all right.
Speaker 1: So I guess what I will say is, I don't
Speaker 1: despise this pick, like I'm not gonna I'm gonna put
Speaker 1: on the maybe list for sure, and especially given where
Speaker 1: we are, it's probably getting in there. I would agree
Speaker 1: that I would prefer it at seven. I do like
Speaker 1: faiting the Steelers because I don't think that the Steelers
Speaker 1: are nearly as good as you know what they've shown now,
Speaker 1: especially without Devin Bush. I don't think the defense like it.
Speaker 1: Although are they gonna have Williamson from the Jets. If
Speaker 1: he is, he's gonna help the defense. But yep, doesn't
Speaker 1: matter to you if Mixing plays here, because it sounds
Speaker 1: like maybe he won't even off.
Speaker 2: The doesn't because I'm betting on Joe Burrow.
Speaker 1: Okay, yeah, I mean it's I would like it at seven.
Speaker 1: I'd like it at seven, but I think I'm on
Speaker 1: the right side.
Speaker 2: I think that it's seven and every of the contest.
Speaker 2: That's why I pissed me off. I got back. I
Speaker 2: was like, it's seven in both the Circa and in
Speaker 2: the Westgates seven, six and a half an hours. I'm
Speaker 2: gonna I'm gonna take it anyway, But I really I
Speaker 2: don't like the six and a half with seven defense.
Speaker 2: It would be it was seven, it would be my
Speaker 2: number one plack pick.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean yeah. This strikes me as as the
Speaker 1: Bengals finding a way to cover at the end of
Speaker 1: the game. I don't think they're gonna do Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: all right, I'll put in the maybe. But given where
Speaker 1: we are the most likely, yes, because I do think
Speaker 1: that's the right side at fifty eight percent. By the way,
Speaker 1: people on the Bengals and our bet analyzer for the Dolphins,
Speaker 1: by the way, since I didn't say it sixty are
Speaker 1: on the wrong side. And on the Dolphins, I'll just
Speaker 1: get all right, let's keep getting ugly, then, Matt, Let's
Speaker 1: get really ugly. This is actually an interesting one because
Speaker 1: you make a lot of money off the Bills. How
Speaker 1: do you feel about the Cardinals laying the two and
Speaker 1: a half to the Bills.
Speaker 2: I think it's the right side. I'm just petrified of it.
Speaker 2: You know, I don't like Josh Allen. I had a
Speaker 2: long I had a long conversation with somebody from Pro
Speaker 2: Football Focus on my radio show today. Who's arguing the
Speaker 2: other side, Who was arguing the Bills. Yeah, and I
Speaker 2: was arguing I was arguing the Cardinals, and just match
Speaker 2: up wise, he thinks that because of the Manda Man
Speaker 2: defense of the Cardinals play in their secondary, they're gonna
Speaker 2: have a real tough time stopping the wide receivers with
Speaker 2: pristine conditions for Buffalo, and this factor is in better
Speaker 2: for the Bills because they play you know, they play
Speaker 2: a warm weather style of football more than a more
Speaker 2: than a cold weather style of football they do. Yeah,
Speaker 2: so they're in Arizona, they're in the Dome, and they're
Speaker 2: against that defense that does give up big yards in
Speaker 2: the past play. So I'm with you on the Cardinals.
Speaker 2: So if you want to hit the Cardinals, I'm okay
Speaker 2: with it. I just have some people who are telling
Speaker 2: me that we're on the wrong side.
Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, I'm gonna put in the maybe category. I look,
Speaker 1: I don't love I don't love any games anymore, but
Speaker 1: I think that it's the right side here. I think again,
Speaker 1: it's a little bit of a you know, just kind
Speaker 1: of the very basic Bilo Sell high. I think the
Speaker 1: public is probably gonna like the Bills here after they
Speaker 1: destroyed the Seahawks in that game. The Cardinals had that
Speaker 1: horrible loss to the Dolphins, which again they could have
Speaker 1: very easily won. I think the Bills traveling cross country
Speaker 1: a homefield advantage doesn't mean anything really anymore, but I
Speaker 1: do think cross country trips, and you brought up the
Speaker 1: fair point about the Chargers coming cross country and again
Speaker 1: harder west to go east. But still it is something
Speaker 1: where I think, you know off that win. It's just
Speaker 1: it's a decent time to sell the Bills. But I
Speaker 1: don't feel great about it, so we'll put it in
Speaker 1: the maybe category on the Cardinals. All Right, you got
Speaker 1: anything else that you're remotely feeling?
Speaker 2: One more game? Okay, this is horrible. Yes, just gonna
Speaker 2: tell you this. This is my last on my list.
Speaker 2: It's it's a play that even I don't like. But
Speaker 2: it's a numbers play. Patriots in primetime catching seven and
Speaker 2: a half points against the Ravens.
Speaker 1: Oh goodness.
Speaker 2: Here's the here's the thought. Okay, the thought is this,
Speaker 2: Lamar Jackson against Bill Belichick. Defense has done pretty much nothing. Okay,
Speaker 2: he has, Belichick has his number figured out. Even if
Speaker 2: Gilmour doesn't play. He didn't practice today. But even if
Speaker 2: Gimour doesn't play. I'm not really all that worried about it.
Speaker 2: The biggest question I've got is whether or not the
Speaker 2: Patriots can move the football against the Ravens defense. But
Speaker 2: if that's my question, getting seven and a half means
Speaker 2: there's a chance the Patriots are in this game, and
Speaker 2: there's a chance that they have an opportunity to maybe have,
Speaker 2: you know, a six point loss. It's a you know,
Speaker 2: twenty seven to twenty one type of loss here at
Speaker 2: home to the Ravens. The Ravens don't blow out anybody,
Speaker 2: and Lamar Jackson, I'm gonna trust Belichick to have a
Speaker 2: defensive scheme enough that they don't give up big plays
Speaker 2: in the run game and they make him throw, and
Speaker 2: as we know, when he has to throw, he's not
Speaker 2: done very well this season. So it's a bet on Belichick.
Speaker 2: It's a bet on their defense, not really their offense.
Speaker 2: But give me the seven and a half, I'll take
Speaker 2: the Patriots in primetime.
Speaker 1: Was that the same defense that let Joe Flacco throw
Speaker 1: three touchdown passes?
Speaker 2: Yeah, but Stefan Gilmour wasn't there, And arguably you can
Speaker 2: make a case that Flacco is a much better passer
Speaker 2: than Lamar Jackson. Yeah, okay, I mean what would you
Speaker 2: argue that point? Would you if you had to throw
Speaker 2: a pass for your life if you had Lamar Jackson
Speaker 2: throwing or Joe Flacco throwing? Who would you take?
Speaker 1: I think I just you know, right, make sure my
Speaker 1: will was there.
Speaker 2: Joe Flacco any day of the week. And you know
Speaker 2: it's okay, Joe Flacco maybe not mister elite, but Joe
Speaker 2: Flacco can throw the football a heck a lot better
Speaker 2: than mar Jackson.
Speaker 1: Can regardless, regardless, And again, we don't know if Gilmore
Speaker 1: is gonna play here anyway, because I was one of
Speaker 1: your points. But even if it doesn't really matter because
Speaker 1: what you know, it's not as if you're like, oh god,
Speaker 1: they're gonna what are they gonna take away? Hollywood Brown.
Speaker 1: Hollywood Brown hasn't been involved in you know, anything games
Speaker 1: or whatever. I get. I get sort of the theory
Speaker 1: of it, but man, Matt, watching that team on Monday
Speaker 1: night just look absolutely ridiculous. Like, if you're the Ravens
Speaker 1: and you're defending this team, what are you? What are
Speaker 1: you worried about? You see, maybe you double team Jacobe
Speaker 1: Myers if you absolutely have to, and you just guard
Speaker 1: against the run. What what in the world? How are
Speaker 1: they going to move the ball? How are they going
Speaker 1: to camp any points camp?
Speaker 2: That's the only that you have to let Cam go
Speaker 2: off and you and you have to let Cam run
Speaker 2: the football. And I just I think that this team
Speaker 2: is going to have a game plan like they do
Speaker 2: every week where everyone goes, how are the Patriots going
Speaker 2: to do it? And then they do it, and then
Speaker 2: and then Belichick is like, oh, that's right, it's Belichick. Yeah,
Speaker 2: I don't know in the game. I'm just saying this
Speaker 2: that the hook theres is a big deal to me.
Speaker 2: Seven and a half is a big deal to me.
Speaker 1: Yeah, man, I don't know. Let me check the bed
Speaker 1: out of all. Let me see where everybody's at, just
Speaker 1: to know where we are. Sixty eight percent on the
Speaker 1: Ravens seven without the hook, without the hook, So.
Speaker 2: See, the hook matters to me, and a half matters
Speaker 2: to me.
Speaker 1: I would just like it on the record that you
Speaker 1: crushed me for going after the forty nine ers and
Speaker 1: you're willing to go with the Patriots.
Speaker 2: Yeah, because I know, Wait, how many rings does Shanahan have? Oh?
Speaker 1: Man, are we have a Belichick? Are we gonna have
Speaker 1: to debate. Look, Belichick is what happened.
Speaker 2: What happened is the biggest game of his life last year.
Speaker 2: What happened? Belichick has right got he lost that game.
Speaker 1: Okay, Valichack has the same number of rings that he
Speaker 1: had on Monday night when he nearly let the one
Speaker 1: of the historically bad Teamsall do.
Speaker 2: You know what to just do against the Patriots? You
Speaker 2: know that, you know what the rivalry is like between
Speaker 2: those two.
Speaker 1: Just stop. You need to stop making excuses.
Speaker 2: To a team. I'm not debating that point. I'm just
Speaker 2: talking about this from a point spread perspective. I'm talking
Speaker 2: about winning and losing here, I'm talking about keeping it
Speaker 2: within seven points. It's a big.
Speaker 1: Difference to be as fair as But I don't have
Speaker 1: a lean at all on this game. I guess you know,
Speaker 1: to be very because you're not wrong. We talked we
Speaker 1: you know, switched to the Ravens last week, and for
Speaker 1: a while that looked like the wrong side. And maybe
Speaker 1: if Johnthan Taylor doesn't fumble early like that and kind
Speaker 1: of change the entire tenor of the game. Although Gus
Speaker 1: Edward's fumbled on the goal line as well, so maybe
Speaker 1: not but yeah, that game didn't look good and the Ravens.
Speaker 1: Did you tweet out that the Ravens offense is broken
Speaker 1: or something? Somebody tweeted out.
Speaker 2: I feel I think it is broken.
Speaker 1: Person, Yeah, I think you might have tweeted that out somebody.
Speaker 2: Game it looked broken.
Speaker 1: Now, that's what I mean.
Speaker 2: During the game, they just can't do anything. I mean,
Speaker 2: I mean, look the Colts defense. We'll see it, We'll
Speaker 2: see it tonight. Colt's defense is good. It's on paper,
Speaker 2: it's paper good. And and Lamar Jackson made them look like,
Speaker 2: you know, the Steel Curtain.
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, let's keep talking about every other game
Speaker 1: here and just see whether or not we get to
Speaker 1: anywhere that we like, because right now we're legitimately looking
Speaker 1: at one game that we like, maybe two games that
Speaker 1: we don't absolutely despise, and then everything else is kind
Speaker 1: of up in the air. So let's let's just talk
Speaker 1: through each of the games. I'm not giving you a
Speaker 1: side when I list, I'm just gonna list the favorite first,
Speaker 1: so don't take from it that I'm I'm asking for
Speaker 1: a side. How do you feel about the Rams laying
Speaker 1: one and a half points to the Seahawks in Los Angeles.
Speaker 2: It's just a tough bounce back spot because I think
Speaker 2: Seattle they turned the ball over so many times last week.
Speaker 2: I think they're angry about it. I'm just concerned if that,
Speaker 2: you know, four leaf clover is gonna wilt there for Seattle,
Speaker 2: with how many games they've won on the last second
Speaker 2: and you know, getting getting to all the breaks, is
Speaker 2: it now going to go against them and they're going
Speaker 2: to start to cough the football up and turn the
Speaker 2: football over and come back down to Earth. So I mean,
Speaker 2: I like Seattle. I think Seal's the right side in
Speaker 2: that game, but I'm concerned about it.
Speaker 1: I actually think the Rams might be the right side here.
Speaker 1: And I think, really what it is that I'm no
Speaker 1: longer scared to go against the Seahawks because that defense
Speaker 1: is historically bad, Yeah, historically bad. And you know, Cooper
Speaker 1: Cups will banged up in this game, and you know
Speaker 1: the Rams are but you know, I don't I don't
Speaker 1: think Jalen Ramsey can necessarily shut down DK Metcalf. But
Speaker 1: they did know the Rams are really good defense, and
Speaker 1: they're they're underrated a bit, and you're giving you're giving
Speaker 1: McVeigh two weeks to prepare for this act.
Speaker 2: Look, the Rams are might picked to win the division.
Speaker 2: So if you wanted to, if you wanted to have
Speaker 2: this be one of our picks, I wouldn't fight you
Speaker 2: on it because I think I just I'm concerned about
Speaker 2: the I'm concerned about what happened last week. Yeah, if
Speaker 2: Seattle doesn't turn the football over, it turns into a shootout,
Speaker 2: and then I'm trusting Jared Goff to be a shootout,
Speaker 2: which is like true, Oh, but you're right. The Rams
Speaker 2: defense is tremendous. It's the strength of their defense. It
Speaker 2: was a circular team and if they could get a
Speaker 2: lead and then keep the ball away from Ross, then yeah,
Speaker 2: I mean the recipe is there for a Rams victory.
Speaker 1: All right, let's put it on the maybe gross list.
Speaker 1: How about the Bears laying two and a half points
Speaker 1: to the Vikings in Chicago on Monday night football?
Speaker 2: And so the stat is this going into tonight, which
Speaker 2: it factors in teams who are playing at home against
Speaker 2: divisional opponents that are catching points are twelve and one
Speaker 2: against the spread. Yep, so the Bears factor into this.
Speaker 2: So if I was going to take a play, not
Speaker 2: that I'm going to go strictly on just on a trend,
Speaker 2: but I think it's a decent trend to look at.
Speaker 2: I would take the Bears at home against the Vikings
Speaker 2: because I don't think the Vikings can do much else
Speaker 2: besides doubt and Cook and the Bears probably gonna take
Speaker 2: him away.
Speaker 1: By the way, I said that wrong. I apologize the
Speaker 1: Bears are getting to an a half points, not laying
Speaker 1: to an a half points.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I said it.
Speaker 1: I'm just saying for the listeners. You knew it correctly,
Speaker 1: You knew it correctly. Yeah. I kind of don't mind
Speaker 1: the Bears here, Matt. I mean, I'm a little I'd
Speaker 1: like Dave Montgomery to play. We don't know, because he's
Speaker 1: got the concussion. But Kirk Cousins especially, you know, in
Speaker 1: primetime in Chicago. I don't know. I kind of like
Speaker 1: it's gross because I don't want to really back and
Speaker 1: I've been fading the Bears quite a bit. But I
Speaker 1: do think that they're going to be able to keep
Speaker 1: this close and probably win it in the end. The
Speaker 1: Vikings just are not a good team. Their secondary is
Speaker 1: not good. You know, Nick Foles is willing to take shots.
Speaker 1: You know, Mooney's kind of coming into his own a
Speaker 1: little bit. I would I'd be willing to take the
Speaker 1: Bears here if you came in and said I like
Speaker 1: the Bears, I'd be willing to do it.
Speaker 2: But in primetime I don't mind it.
Speaker 1: I I yeah, all right, let's put it on the
Speaker 1: maybe list. Then we've got NonStop Maybes going on.
Speaker 2: I love it.
Speaker 1: Okay, hold on, what have we talked about yet?
Speaker 2: Philly and New York and Jacksonville and Green.
Speaker 1: Bay Fit and the Lions. Let's let's get to Let's
Speaker 1: get to Philly and New York. The Eagles are laying
Speaker 1: nine and three and a half. Pardon me, three and
Speaker 1: a half to the Giants in New York. By the way,
Speaker 1: with the with the Bills and the Bears and Vikings,
Speaker 1: fifty percent our bet analyzer are on the Vikings, just
Speaker 1: so everybody knows. Okay, So yeah, what do you think
Speaker 1: the Eagles laying three and a half to the Giants in.
Speaker 2: New York's same conversation. In the last time, it's a
Speaker 2: home dog in division. Give me the Giants post three
Speaker 2: and a half. If I bet the game, it's Giants
Speaker 2: post three and a half all day over the Eagles.
Speaker 1: That's how I feel, too like, and I don't love
Speaker 1: it by any means, right, but that's how I feel.
Speaker 1: If you're giving me if if I had any confidence
Speaker 1: in Daniel Jones at all to just not bungle it
Speaker 1: up completely and blow the game at like the last minute,
Speaker 1: I would take them to keep it closed. I think
Speaker 1: people are gonna be like Eagles off bye, here they come,
Speaker 1: blah blah blah, And I think you're just gonna still
Speaker 1: be like, why is Carson Wentz holding the ball for
Speaker 1: eight seconds and throwing it off his back foot into
Speaker 1: triple coverage? So another game where I'll put in the
Speaker 1: maybe list. I mean, the Giants getting three and a
Speaker 1: half whatever, I mean, give us some fun here.
Speaker 2: This is what matters there to me.
Speaker 1: Yeah, the hook matters exactly. Okay, let's go to the
Speaker 1: next game. The Lions laying four and a half to Washington.
Speaker 2: I hate this game so much. Yes, there's nothing in
Speaker 2: this game. I like, there is no way you can
Speaker 2: convince me to take a slide in this game besides
Speaker 2: just taking the points because both teams are horrible. So
Speaker 2: if I had to bet, it'll take the Washington team.
Speaker 2: But I hate I mean, I just absolutely hate this game.
Speaker 1: You couldn't force me to take this game legitimately under
Speaker 1: any circumstances. There's not I don't have a single feeling
Speaker 1: about this game other than runaway Packers laying three and
Speaker 1: a half thirteen and a half. Goodness, I'm so sorry
Speaker 1: Packer's laying thirteen and a half to the Jaguars. Before
Speaker 1: you do, hold on, I do want to see if
Speaker 1: our bet Atalyzer is where it looks at right now
Speaker 1: in that game. No, that is legitimately the most even
Speaker 1: split game on everybody. I bet you it's also going
Speaker 1: to be the least bet game of the weekend because
Speaker 1: nobody wants to go there. But it's fifty four percent
Speaker 1: if anybody cares is backing the Washington football team Lange
Speaker 1: four and a half. Anyway, the Packers laying thirteen and
Speaker 1: a half to the Jaguars in Green Bay, I.
Speaker 2: Mean, how do you? I mean, this is the ultimate
Speaker 2: professional bet. Okay, professionals are going to lay thirteen and
Speaker 2: a half just blindly, right, just blindly because it's thirteen
Speaker 2: and a half points in the NFL, and they pay
Speaker 2: their players too. But I don't know how in the
Speaker 2: world you could take Jacksonville on the same level. I
Speaker 2: don't know how you lay nearly two touchdowns at home
Speaker 2: for this Packers team. I just don't trust either one
Speaker 2: of these teams to cover. So if I had to
Speaker 2: bet it, I would say Green Bay based on quarterback play,
Speaker 2: but no way would I ever take it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, if there's wind in this game as well, I
Speaker 1: believe this is the other wind game. I think there
Speaker 1: were two. I believe this was the other one. I
Speaker 1: could be wrong, but yeah, like I can't, I don't know.
Speaker 1: I did not learn anything about Jake Luton last week,
Speaker 1: like I was.
Speaker 2: He played throw. Yeah, I don't know how much you
Speaker 2: saw him in college, but that kid can throw a football.
Speaker 1: He can throw. He can throw and if you you know,
Speaker 1: although he doesn't move all that well, that was a
Speaker 1: nifty spin move to get to the ends on there
Speaker 1: against the Texans, But it was the Texans defense. I
Speaker 1: have no idea what he's going to look like in
Speaker 1: Lambeau against a wrested Packers defense. So really not a
Speaker 1: game I want to trust on either side. I think
Speaker 1: the only game that we haven't talked about is the
Speaker 1: Broncos getting five and a half from the Raiders in
Speaker 1: Las Vegas. It's five and a half. So yeah, I
Speaker 1: know you hate the Raiders.
Speaker 2: This is one of my bets of the week for
Speaker 2: the Daily Juice. I've already bet it. The over in
Speaker 2: this game is gonna hit. Ah. Okay, the over is fifty.
Speaker 2: This is I have no idea why the number is fifty.
Speaker 2: It is bizarre to me why this number is so low.
Speaker 2: Denver is not going to get any I mean, the
Speaker 2: Raiders are going to get any pressure on Drew Locke
Speaker 2: and the one thing that Drew Lot can do is
Speaker 2: throw with a clean pocket like most quarterbacks can. The Raers,
Speaker 2: on the other hand, are gonna run the ball and
Speaker 2: throw the ball deep. I think Ruggs is a monster game.
Speaker 2: I think you see Waller have a monster game. I
Speaker 2: just think points points points in this game. I hate
Speaker 2: the five and a half point numbers, so I won't
Speaker 2: go near it. But if I had to lay it,
Speaker 2: I would lay it with Vegas.
Speaker 1: Yeah. I don't have a great feel for it, to
Speaker 1: be fair, I don't. I think I agree with the over,
Speaker 1: but I don't love it. Meanwhile, the consensus spread is
Speaker 1: down to four, which is interesting. I think if I
Speaker 1: had to go on one side. I might go with
Speaker 1: the Broncos just to cover, you know, do like a
Speaker 1: backdoor cover, because that's all I mean. Right, if the
Speaker 1: Raiders get up ahead, you know, Drew Locks is gonna
Speaker 1: go absolutely insane and just start throwing not.
Speaker 2: I think it's a thirty twenty seven type of game,
Speaker 2: one way or the other. So I think there's fifty.
Speaker 2: I think it gets through fifty pretty easily. So that's
Speaker 2: all I prefer the over in this game. Then the side.
Speaker 1: All right, let's get really gross and talk about where
Speaker 1: we are. So here's what I'm gonna do. We know
Speaker 1: we're taking the Bucks laying four and a half to
Speaker 1: the Panthers. Yeah, I'm going to add in the Bengals
Speaker 1: getting six and a half from Pittsburgh because that was
Speaker 1: like the least yuck I could get to and we
Speaker 1: were on the right side. Okay, hold on, let me
Speaker 1: just ride it in. Okay. So these are the other games, Matt,
Speaker 1: and you can let me know if I've missed one.
Speaker 1: These were the other games where we weren't, like essentially
Speaker 1: on different sides, which means we'd have to pick three
Speaker 1: of these gross four games. The Cardinals laying two and
Speaker 1: a half to the Bills, the Rams laying one and
Speaker 1: a half to the Seahawks, the Bears getting two and
Speaker 1: a half from the Vikings, and the Giants getting three
Speaker 1: and a half from the Eagles.
Speaker 2: Rams Bears, Giants.
Speaker 1: Rams Bears, Giants. I am okay with that, actually, and
Speaker 1: if I am going to be as transparent as possible,
Speaker 1: all three of those were in my list of h
Speaker 1: I can live with this. That's where they were. They
Speaker 1: were all in my list. The Rams laying one and
Speaker 1: a half to the Seahawks, the Bears getting two and
Speaker 1: a half points from the Vikings, and the Giants getting
Speaker 1: three and a half points from the Eagles. I like
Speaker 1: the Giants with the hook. I think the Bears are
Speaker 1: gonna win out right, and I think the Rams are
Speaker 1: gonna win out right. So that's where we are. I
Speaker 1: feel pretty gross about it, which means it's probably a
Speaker 1: five and oh week.
Speaker 2: But I like points. I mean, at this point in
Speaker 2: the year, I start to like points because the public
Speaker 2: starts getting all wacky with favorites of the dark past
Speaker 2: lay in points and I'll do it. I like taking points,
Speaker 2: but week ten on I like taking short favorites and points.
Speaker 1: Yep, all right, well, those of you who are listening
Speaker 1: can understand that I am taking the Texans getting three
Speaker 1: and at myself, I haven't already bet this the Texans
Speaker 1: getting three and a half and the forty nine ers
Speaker 1: getting nine and a half. So that is how gross
Speaker 1: it's going to be right now for this weekend. Okay,
Speaker 1: good enough, good enough for me. Everybody, make sure you
Speaker 1: are listening to the Daily Juice podcast, which is Matt's
Speaker 1: daily podcast. It is, I dare say it the greatest
Speaker 1: podcast in the world. I really love it. It's every day,
Speaker 1: It's fantastic. Matt does a great job breaking down pretty
Speaker 1: much every single sport. Again Betting Pros like comp slash chat,
Speaker 1: join our discord channel and there are our workspace or
Speaker 1: whatever you call it at this point, and again you
Speaker 1: can win a sign a J Brown Titan's helmet hopefully
Speaker 1: is a big game tonight because I need him. And
Speaker 1: also don't forget that you can check out our cheat
Speaker 1: sheet creators what we call it?
Speaker 2: What do we call our pret cheat sheet.
Speaker 1: Prop bet cheat sheet, I'm still learning the name over
Speaker 1: at Bettingpros dot com slash props. And we'll be back
Speaker 1: next week bringing down the week eleven straight, hopefully after
Speaker 1: a big week. We'll talk to you then