WEBVTT - Week 10 NFL Best Bets (Ep. 64) 0:00:13.720 --> 0:00:16.200 Hey, everybody, welcome back to another episode of the Betting 0:00:16.200 --> 0:00:19.599 Pros NFL Podcast. I'm your host, Dan Harris. With me, 0:00:19.640 --> 0:00:22.079 of course, is Matt Parral. You can find us on 0:00:22.120 --> 0:00:25.160 Twitter at Dan Harris Adian at Sports Talk. Matt, Matt, 0:00:25.160 --> 0:00:27.480 how are you on this fine Thursday evening. 0:00:27.640 --> 0:00:31.120 I'm rolling up my sleeves as we speak. Let's get 0:00:31.160 --> 0:00:34.720 to work here. We need to go, all right, I 0:00:35.000 --> 0:00:37.920 I this week sucks. That means we're gonna have a 0:00:37.920 --> 0:00:38.400 great week. 0:00:38.880 --> 0:00:41.159 Oh my god. I was legitimately thinking the same thing. 0:00:41.240 --> 0:00:43.440 I felt pretty good about the last couple of weeks, 0:00:43.440 --> 0:00:45.479 and we have just kind of been treading water and 0:00:45.800 --> 0:00:47.839 a little bit under treading water where we need to go, 0:00:48.440 --> 0:00:50.640 and now I feel terrible about it. So I'm ready 0:00:50.680 --> 0:00:51.080 to just go. 0:00:51.159 --> 0:00:51.600 Fine O. 0:00:52.159 --> 0:00:55.240 All right, let's do our usual PSAs before we recap 0:00:55.320 --> 0:00:58.360 last week, can get into this week's games discord? Of course, 0:00:58.440 --> 0:01:02.160 I'm Matt on how many we're like pushing a thousand. 0:01:01.840 --> 0:01:04.000 At this point one thousand. We're about nine to fifty 0:01:04.120 --> 0:01:05.520 right now for people who are on it. I mean 0:01:05.800 --> 0:01:08.120 during football games, we're approaching you know, two fifty three 0:01:08.200 --> 0:01:10.560 hundred people at a time that are on it. It's 0:01:10.560 --> 0:01:13.080 really cool because I figured out a feature that when 0:01:13.120 --> 0:01:17.039 I play prop bets, there's an at everyone features and 0:01:17.120 --> 0:01:19.679 I can send it out to everyone so everyone sees 0:01:19.760 --> 0:01:21.720 the ads that they make, which I found that to 0:01:21.800 --> 0:01:23.320 be incredibly cool last night. 0:01:23.360 --> 0:01:26.039 So I'm aware because I've seen them them up and 0:01:26.080 --> 0:01:28.039 I've been like, wait, what's going on. Is Matt trying 0:01:28.040 --> 0:01:28.560 to talk to me? 0:01:28.640 --> 0:01:28.800 Oh? 0:01:28.880 --> 0:01:31.840 No, He's just telling everyone in our Discord channel that 0:01:31.959 --> 0:01:34.120 he's got a prop bet, which is great. I actually 0:01:34.120 --> 0:01:37.000 that's a great idea because as you know, sometimes I'm 0:01:37.040 --> 0:01:38.840 the worst person ever. You guys know, I do a 0:01:38.880 --> 0:01:42.000 ton of fantasy, especially on Sunday mornings. Sometimes I am 0:01:42.200 --> 0:01:44.120 too late and I don't get my props into Matt. 0:01:44.200 --> 0:01:46.080 So worst comes to worse, I'll put on Discord now 0:01:46.240 --> 0:01:48.560 at everyone, so everybody knows that if I don't get 0:01:48.600 --> 0:01:50.760 it to Matt by the time he does his YouTube 0:01:50.760 --> 0:01:53.360 stream at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros but anyway, 0:01:53.600 --> 0:01:56.160 the best you can go to join our Discord Bettingpros 0:01:56.160 --> 0:01:57.800 dot com slash chat. We are also giving away an 0:01:57.840 --> 0:02:01.000 AJ Brown helmet so you can get assigned helmet team 0:02:01.080 --> 0:02:04.240 get that as well. Again, Betting Pros dot com slash chat. Second, 0:02:04.320 --> 0:02:07.560 our prop bet cheat cheap bettingpros dot com slash props 0:02:07.720 --> 0:02:12.679 consider compare consensus projections to the available props in the market. Again, 0:02:12.680 --> 0:02:14.280 we're still tweaking it. We're still getting it up to 0:02:14.360 --> 0:02:16.040 day and everything like that. But you can go check 0:02:16.040 --> 0:02:18.399 it out offer some good ones, all right. So let's 0:02:18.400 --> 0:02:20.399 get to every game on this weekend. First, the three cap. 0:02:20.560 --> 0:02:22.919 Last weeks, once again we have gone three and two. 0:02:23.520 --> 0:02:25.360 We went three and two for like six weeks straight. 0:02:25.400 --> 0:02:26.960 Now we're two and three and back to back weeks. 0:02:26.960 --> 0:02:30.400 I believe we are now twenty what is it, twenty 0:02:30.440 --> 0:02:33.480 three and twenty two. I believe overall we're one game up, 0:02:33.760 --> 0:02:36.560 whatever it is. Fifty one point one percent hit on 0:02:36.600 --> 0:02:38.080 the Ravens lank two and a half to the Culture, 0:02:38.080 --> 0:02:40.400 which is a game that I liked that we switched 0:02:40.440 --> 0:02:43.320 in thankfully for the Chiefs game that we had settled 0:02:43.360 --> 0:02:47.000 on last week. And we also liked the Saints getting 0:02:47.000 --> 0:02:48.600 four and a half from the Bucks, which we hit on, 0:02:48.840 --> 0:02:50.679 but we missed on the Seahawks getting two and a 0:02:50.720 --> 0:02:53.000 half from the Bills. The Bills are like, you know, 0:02:53.400 --> 0:02:55.600 our kryptonite or Matts kryptonite, that's for sure. 0:02:56.000 --> 0:02:58.560 The court trill, who I made good money on the 0:02:58.560 --> 0:02:59.760 bills betting its bills this year. 0:02:59.840 --> 0:03:03.640 That's fair, that's fair, I bet. I just mean you 0:03:03.639 --> 0:03:06.120 hate them. I bet cards, the cards laying four and 0:03:06.160 --> 0:03:08.919 a half to the Dolphins and the pass lank seven 0:03:08.919 --> 0:03:10.840 a half to the Jet's goodness, gracious, we're not even 0:03:10.880 --> 0:03:13.200 gonna talk about that Monday night game. So wait, three 0:03:13.240 --> 0:03:16.120 eighty fourth out of six eighty nine. We've got ways 0:03:16.160 --> 0:03:18.600 to go, but not in any way out of it 0:03:18.760 --> 0:03:21.200 at all. At this point. We've got plenty of time 0:03:21.320 --> 0:03:23.920 to catch up, but we've got to get going now. 0:03:23.960 --> 0:03:26.919 So it's gonna take a big week or two or three. 0:03:27.240 --> 0:03:28.920 So let's get started right now with a week that 0:03:29.000 --> 0:03:31.119 I hate, which you hate, which we're gonna go five 0:03:31.120 --> 0:03:33.080 and oh so start us off. What's your number one pick? 0:03:33.520 --> 0:03:37.040 All right? So I'm going to I went through and 0:03:37.080 --> 0:03:40.320 I tried to kind of game theory based upon the 0:03:40.960 --> 0:03:44.800 numbers for DraftKings. Okay, and so I have been getting 0:03:44.840 --> 0:03:46.760 caught because now that I'm in the West Gate and 0:03:46.800 --> 0:03:50.040 I'm in the DraftKings and I'm in the Circa, these 0:03:50.160 --> 0:03:52.640 numbers matter right at this point in the year, there's 0:03:52.760 --> 0:03:56.240 enough algorithms, there's enough information out there where the lines 0:03:56.280 --> 0:03:58.040 can be very very sharp. This is where it gets 0:03:58.120 --> 0:03:59.960 very difficult. This is when the public loses their sh 0:04:00.080 --> 0:04:03.920 shirt from this week, Week ten on the NFL's very hard. 0:04:04.600 --> 0:04:07.480 So when there's line discrepancies, I'm gonna be those are 0:04:07.480 --> 0:04:11.000 going to raise red flags to me. So the bucks 0:04:11.000 --> 0:04:13.880 are four and a half in our contest, yep, they 0:04:13.880 --> 0:04:16.800 are five and a half six in climbing as we 0:04:16.920 --> 0:04:19.800 roll here. I'm not saying it's a bad idea if 0:04:19.800 --> 0:04:21.719 you get to seven or six and a half to 0:04:21.839 --> 0:04:25.640 take the Panthers here plus the points. But in our 0:04:25.720 --> 0:04:29.040 contest it's four and a half. It's below my hated five. 0:04:29.520 --> 0:04:32.240 It's a bounce back spot. And I believe the Panthers 0:04:32.480 --> 0:04:35.200 decided that they wanted to beat the Chiefs so badly 0:04:35.520 --> 0:04:37.800 that they would go and do anything to have the 0:04:37.880 --> 0:04:40.200 scalp that they could run around and say, Matt rule 0:04:40.240 --> 0:04:42.719 a year one beat the defending champs on the road 0:04:42.960 --> 0:04:45.440 because Christian McCaffrey should have been on a pitch count 0:04:45.520 --> 0:04:48.159 last week. He wasn't. They forced in the ball so 0:04:48.279 --> 0:04:50.679 much that they got him hurt. So now that after 0:04:50.800 --> 0:04:53.359 changing their offense to fit in McCaffrey, they got to 0:04:53.400 --> 0:04:55.760 go back to having him not be there. I know 0:04:55.839 --> 0:04:59.640 that Bridgewater is a cover machine, but that pathetic effort 0:04:59.640 --> 0:05:03.200 by the They're gonna turn things around this week. I 0:05:03.320 --> 0:05:05.839 like the Bucks even on the road to lay it 0:05:05.920 --> 0:05:07.720 down on the Panthers. I'm gonna lay the four and 0:05:07.760 --> 0:05:09.680 a half tampamize four and a half. 0:05:09.800 --> 0:05:11.919 Far and away, my number one pick, Far and away, 0:05:12.120 --> 0:05:15.599 like maybe the only game that I really was like, yep, 0:05:16.000 --> 0:05:19.600 this is one I absolutely want. I mean, if I'm 0:05:19.680 --> 0:05:22.400 if I'm poking a hole in it. It's just that 0:05:22.480 --> 0:05:26.200 Teddy Bridgewater covers. Teddy Bridgewater is the cover machine. It 0:05:26.360 --> 0:05:29.359 is what he does. But it just doesn't matter to me. 0:05:29.400 --> 0:05:33.200 You buying low on the Bucks after that embarrassing performance. 0:05:33.520 --> 0:05:35.800 Tom Brady off a loss he usually covers. As you 0:05:35.839 --> 0:05:38.440 mentioned about McCaffrey, he's out for this game. It's gonna 0:05:38.440 --> 0:05:41.320 be Mike Davis, who again it played really well for 0:05:41.400 --> 0:05:43.960 several games, but then he wore down. He played kind 0:05:43.960 --> 0:05:46.440 of poorly the last three games. So that this is 0:05:46.560 --> 0:05:48.200 this is no brainer to me, absolutely at four and 0:05:48.240 --> 0:05:50.960 a half. And you're right that the spread is rising 0:05:51.000 --> 0:05:52.600 and that that that's a great point, Matt. When do 0:05:52.720 --> 0:05:56.680 the lines lock at the Circa and and the. 0:05:56.640 --> 0:05:58.719 Other one when they come out, I mean basically either 0:05:58.760 --> 0:06:01.280 Wednesday or third day. It's on COVID problems. So if 0:06:01.480 --> 0:06:04.599 big COVID issues Circa and Westgate can they can hold 0:06:04.600 --> 0:06:07.200 on to it. Sometimes I find out exactly who's playing, 0:06:07.640 --> 0:06:11.320 but mostly it's Wednesday or Wednesday afternoon Thursday, same time 0:06:11.360 --> 0:06:14.400 as the DraftKings. There's just different. There's discrepancies in the 0:06:14.480 --> 0:06:17.359 numbers that are quite glaring. Like in the circle of 0:06:17.400 --> 0:06:19.440 this it's five and a half, so it's four and 0:06:19.480 --> 0:06:20.960 a half. We're getting extra point here. 0:06:21.360 --> 0:06:24.920 Yeah, there's no brainer. On our bed analyzer, it's this 0:06:25.080 --> 0:06:27.560 spread right now is the consensus sign is minus six, 0:06:27.600 --> 0:06:29.880 and it's still overwhelmingly on the bucks. 0:06:30.560 --> 0:06:32.560 I think seven. You may talk me into the Panthers, 0:06:32.600 --> 0:06:33.840 but four and a half I'm taking tap. 0:06:33.920 --> 0:06:36.680 Yeah, four and a half without that, Okay, So maybe 0:06:36.720 --> 0:06:39.080 we will agree. I'm coming in here, Matt, and I'm 0:06:39.120 --> 0:06:41.920 expecting us not to really agree on all of these 0:06:42.000 --> 0:06:44.600 just because it's so ugly, but you might given the 0:06:44.640 --> 0:06:47.200 way your preface to this entire week, which is where 0:06:47.200 --> 0:06:52.120 the public's gonna lose their shirt. Maybe you won't hate 0:06:52.160 --> 0:06:55.039 all of these. I really don't know. Let me see 0:06:55.040 --> 0:06:56.560 which one I wanted to start with here. Okay, I'll 0:06:56.560 --> 0:07:00.000 get one which think you'll like, but we'll see about it. 0:07:00.600 --> 0:07:02.800 The forty nine Ers getting nine and a half from 0:07:02.839 --> 0:07:05.440 the Saints. So here here's number one. I think the 0:07:05.480 --> 0:07:07.640 Saints are going to be a very public play, if 0:07:07.640 --> 0:07:10.480 for no other reason, then of course, the very classic. 0:07:10.600 --> 0:07:13.720 They absolutely destroyed the Bucks and the forty nine Ers 0:07:13.960 --> 0:07:17.560 look like perhaps the worst team in football on Thursday night. Now, 0:07:17.760 --> 0:07:20.280 I realize you don't have Jimmy Garoppolo. I realize you 0:07:20.320 --> 0:07:24.000 don't have George Kittle, But Kyle Shannan is a fantastic coach. 0:07:24.040 --> 0:07:26.920 He is going to figure out a way to improve 0:07:27.360 --> 0:07:30.400 the offense. You're gonna get at least Brandon aiyuk back. 0:07:30.480 --> 0:07:33.160 Sounds like maybe Deebo Samuel will need another week. The 0:07:33.240 --> 0:07:35.080 running backs are gonna need another week? Which are I mean? 0:07:35.120 --> 0:07:37.120 Kiinnon is fine if it gets to work. I think 0:07:37.320 --> 0:07:39.920 Kendrick Bourne, who's currently on the COVID list, is probably 0:07:39.920 --> 0:07:42.160 gonna be able to come off. And again, this just 0:07:42.160 --> 0:07:46.960 strikes me as a very huge overreaction to what happened 0:07:47.240 --> 0:07:51.000 last week, so I'd love it if it were a ten. 0:07:51.080 --> 0:07:53.640 Spreads actually down to nine in our consensus lines, and 0:07:54.080 --> 0:07:56.400 the people in our bed on liies are leaning towards 0:07:56.400 --> 0:07:58.880 the Saints. But it's ugly, But I like forty nine 0:07:58.960 --> 0:07:59.960 ers getting nine and a half. Here. 0:08:00.040 --> 0:08:02.320 You could pick all the boards one game, but this 0:08:02.400 --> 0:08:03.360 is the game you're choosing. 0:08:03.600 --> 0:08:05.440 Yeah, that's correct, right. 0:08:05.560 --> 0:08:07.640 You want to bet on a backup quarterback, back up, 0:08:07.720 --> 0:08:13.200 running back, back up, backup, offensive line, backup, backup, defensive line, backup, secondary, 0:08:13.240 --> 0:08:15.120 and this is the pick against a team that just 0:08:15.200 --> 0:08:18.000 whipped and looked amazing against the Bucks. 0:08:18.200 --> 0:08:20.520 Oh do so? I'm sorry, Just to be clear, are 0:08:20.520 --> 0:08:24.560 we supposed to be like wow, that team just absolutely 0:08:24.560 --> 0:08:27.120 destroyed the Bucks after, by the way, nearly losing to 0:08:27.240 --> 0:08:31.400 the Bears the Bears, Like, let I'm not overreacting to 0:08:31.440 --> 0:08:33.440 a week. This is what I said. I knew you 0:08:33.440 --> 0:08:36.160 were going to hate this pack. I almost I tell 0:08:36.200 --> 0:08:38.240 you said the public, I'm going to be the most 0:08:38.480 --> 0:08:39.520 will the best line. 0:08:39.640 --> 0:08:41.959 I'm willing. I'm willing to listen to it. 0:08:42.160 --> 0:08:42.560 Go ahead. 0:08:42.600 --> 0:08:44.240 Okay, I wouldn't listen to it and put it in 0:08:44.240 --> 0:08:46.880 the maybe category. I'm just saying, of all that you 0:08:47.000 --> 0:08:49.360 have the board to play with the board. 0:08:49.480 --> 0:08:52.280 This is how every pick is ugly, Matt, every pick 0:08:52.320 --> 0:08:54.800 is ugly this week. But yes, let me tell you, 0:08:54.800 --> 0:08:56.400 what do you think the public split is going to 0:08:56.440 --> 0:08:58.280 be on this game? What do you think the public well, 0:08:58.320 --> 0:08:58.760 how much. 0:08:58.679 --> 0:09:00.520 I think it'll get to ten and then I mean, 0:09:00.559 --> 0:09:02.680 I think it just depends on how high the line 0:09:02.720 --> 0:09:05.760 will go. I think if we get over eleven or twelve, 0:09:05.760 --> 0:09:06.920 I think you'll see buy back. 0:09:07.360 --> 0:09:09.240 But I think you're gonna see by I think I 0:09:09.280 --> 0:09:11.360 think what you're gonna see. And I could be wrong. 0:09:11.400 --> 0:09:14.400 And you, you, frankly, you, because you've been out there 0:09:14.480 --> 0:09:17.040 so much, you have so much great insight, you understand 0:09:17.080 --> 0:09:18.880 it more. I think there's gonna be a ton of 0:09:18.960 --> 0:09:22.240 public play on the Saints this week, and I don't 0:09:22.240 --> 0:09:23.120 think that line's well. 0:09:23.120 --> 0:09:24.720 I think on the East Coast. You gotta remember that 0:09:24.880 --> 0:09:27.719 in Vegas we have a lot of California people, So 0:09:27.760 --> 0:09:30.800 that tend that tends to keep the California team's lines 0:09:30.800 --> 0:09:32.760 to be a little bit in check. Yep, because if 0:09:32.760 --> 0:09:34.679 you go double digits, just people here in Vegas are 0:09:34.679 --> 0:09:36.200 smart enough and they're from California. A lot of them. 0:09:36.240 --> 0:09:37.600 They're going, you know what, the Niners are gonna keep 0:09:37.640 --> 0:09:39.920 the game close. But my problem is they're gonna have 0:09:39.920 --> 0:09:42.160 to run the football, and I think that's the one 0:09:42.200 --> 0:09:44.160 thing the Saints actually do a good job of stopping. 0:09:44.440 --> 0:09:47.000 They do so they do they do. I agree, but 0:09:47.000 --> 0:09:51.360 I think you're gonna give this team off a nationally 0:09:51.480 --> 0:09:56.440 televised just absolute chi lacking where they didn't have any man. 0:09:56.480 --> 0:10:00.440 I do fantasy football for a living and I barely 0:10:00.960 --> 0:10:03.360 I could pick Richie James out of a lineup who 0:10:03.360 --> 0:10:05.760 had one hundred and seventy yards right and the TOUCHDOWN'M like, 0:10:06.000 --> 0:10:07.960 that's what they were looking at. I uk is a 0:10:08.040 --> 0:10:13.280 huge get to have back, as is I expect Kendrick Bourne, 0:10:13.280 --> 0:10:15.560 who I know people look here, but it's fine. Look, 0:10:16.360 --> 0:10:18.160 there was one game this week that I was going 0:10:18.240 --> 0:10:20.280 to push and it was the Bucks. That's the only 0:10:20.280 --> 0:10:21.880 one I was going to basically lie in the mat for. 0:10:22.000 --> 0:10:24.280 There are no other games. So trust me. The fact 0:10:24.320 --> 0:10:26.280 that I chose this game next, it was only because 0:10:26.320 --> 0:10:28.679 I was like, with this, maybe fits into Matt's narrative, 0:10:29.040 --> 0:10:30.880 maybe he'll go for it, So go ahead to your 0:10:30.920 --> 0:10:31.280 next one. 0:10:31.440 --> 0:10:34.760 Just it's just ugly, Okay, so my next one is 0:10:34.800 --> 0:10:38.199 a number that I would prefer to go down to three, 0:10:39.240 --> 0:10:41.720 But it's three and a half for our contest, and 0:10:41.880 --> 0:10:43.840 I don't I don't hate it at three and a half. Again, 0:10:43.840 --> 0:10:46.320 I would preferred to three. But I think the Houston 0:10:46.360 --> 0:10:49.720 Texans are done. And I think if you look at 0:10:49.720 --> 0:10:52.720 the weather, okay, so this is what it's gonna be bad, 0:10:53.120 --> 0:10:56.400 windy again, nasty and cold, okay, which is not Houston 0:10:56.440 --> 0:10:59.480 Texans weather. Ye not. You can't fill the ball deep again, Okay. 0:10:59.679 --> 0:11:02.160 So the same logic that we took this took the 0:11:02.240 --> 0:11:05.920 Raiders to beat the Browns is the same logic. I'm 0:11:05.960 --> 0:11:08.120 taking the Browns to win here because you're gonna get 0:11:08.160 --> 0:11:10.520 Nick Chubb back, looks like. So you have two running 0:11:10.520 --> 0:11:13.160 backs that are decent, and I don't think David Johnson's 0:11:13.200 --> 0:11:15.040 questionable for this game for the Texans, I don't think 0:11:15.040 --> 0:11:16.920 they can run the football all that well, I don't. 0:11:16.960 --> 0:11:19.000 I mean, Deshaun Watson might be their best running back 0:11:19.040 --> 0:11:19.640 in this game. 0:11:20.280 --> 0:11:23.560 I just think give Duke Johnson some credit. Matt Duke 0:11:23.640 --> 0:11:25.760 Johnson is fine, okay, perfectly. 0:11:25.760 --> 0:11:28.960 He's not gonna beat the brown by himself on the road, Okay, 0:11:29.800 --> 0:11:32.439 three out of that rather the three. But Cleveland minus 0:11:32.480 --> 0:11:34.160 three and a half, I think from a pick play 0:11:34.160 --> 0:11:35.720 I don't know if I'll bet it. I might bet it, 0:11:35.760 --> 0:11:38.640 But from a pick play perspective, I like Cleveland to 0:11:38.679 --> 0:11:39.920 cover that three and a half point line. 0:11:40.000 --> 0:11:41.960 Yeah, I'm on the other side. I'm on the other side. 0:11:42.040 --> 0:11:44.960 Wow, I'm not gonna be The Texans play a two 0:11:44.960 --> 0:11:45.920 and six football team. 0:11:45.960 --> 0:11:49.719 Explain this to me, Okay, we like I mean, DVOA 0:11:49.960 --> 0:11:53.520 is not the be all and all right of teams, 0:11:53.559 --> 0:11:56.200 of course, but it's Aguell. The Texans are a better 0:11:56.240 --> 0:11:59.200 team by DVOA than the Browns. I don't think the 0:11:59.200 --> 0:12:02.560 Browns are really that good of a football team here, Matt, 0:12:02.640 --> 0:12:05.680 especially when you're without Odell Beckham junior. Now, I get 0:12:05.800 --> 0:12:07.760 they're gonna get Chubb back, They're gonna be able to 0:12:07.840 --> 0:12:10.560 run the ball. Absolutely, But again, if this were. 0:12:10.559 --> 0:12:12.720 You believe in DVOA, then then you know that the 0:12:12.800 --> 0:12:14.640 rushing defense for the Texans is one of the worst 0:12:14.679 --> 0:12:15.240 in the whole. 0:12:15.280 --> 0:12:17.400 Fact that the Browns can run on anybody. But I 0:12:17.440 --> 0:12:19.200 agree they're gonna run the Raiders. 0:12:19.240 --> 0:12:21.000 That's why I put the Raiders. They couldn't run on 0:12:21.040 --> 0:12:21.360 the Raiders. 0:12:21.400 --> 0:12:23.760 All right, that's fair. But with Chubb, who I do 0:12:23.840 --> 0:12:25.840 expect to be back here, they're gonna be able to 0:12:25.880 --> 0:12:28.800 run with him and hunt. No Beckham, I think is 0:12:28.840 --> 0:12:32.280 a bigger loss than kind of weird, fully. 0:12:32.080 --> 0:12:33.880 Right, But in this weather condition, he wouldn't be a 0:12:33.920 --> 0:12:34.640 factor anyway. 0:12:35.320 --> 0:12:37.760 Yeah, I I first of all, as far as I 0:12:37.760 --> 0:12:40.520 can tell, Matt, and you tell me what's the exact forecast, 0:12:40.520 --> 0:12:41.160 because this is. 0:12:41.080 --> 0:12:44.800 Not wins okay, which is the biggest issue of anything 0:12:44.800 --> 0:12:48.360 when it comes to Yeah, it's gonna be cold, it's 0:12:48.360 --> 0:12:50.520 gonna be windy, it's gonna be like the same weather 0:12:50.520 --> 0:12:52.680 conditions as the last time the rate we talked about 0:12:52.720 --> 0:12:54.600 the Browns with the Raiders, and we were all over 0:12:54.600 --> 0:12:56.600 the Raiders and we won that game out right, sixteen 0:12:56.640 --> 0:12:59.080 to six. So I think the under is in play 0:12:59.120 --> 0:13:01.080 in this game major But and I think with the 0:13:01.120 --> 0:13:03.280 under in play, that favors the Browns. 0:13:04.600 --> 0:13:07.640 Yeah, I just don't. I don't know, man. And you 0:13:07.679 --> 0:13:09.720 know what's funny. You know what's funny, Matt, And it's 0:13:09.880 --> 0:13:11.840 if people listening to this, I don't know if they 0:13:11.840 --> 0:13:14.080 listen to our fantasy podcast. We did a DFS show 0:13:14.120 --> 0:13:16.920 today with Chris Rabahn of the Action Network. Do you know, Chris, Yeah, 0:13:16.960 --> 0:13:20.559 of course this is great. Legitimately, Matt, this was both 0:13:20.600 --> 0:13:23.280 of our like one of our better picks on the board. 0:13:23.360 --> 0:13:25.360 It randomly came up because we were talking about fantasy 0:13:25.400 --> 0:13:27.400 and he was like, I like the Texans getting three 0:13:27.400 --> 0:13:28.679 and a half. And I was like, yes, I'm gonna 0:13:28.760 --> 0:13:31.080 use this when I talk about it with Matt Barral 0:13:31.280 --> 0:13:34.079 on our show today. The fact that Chris also likes 0:13:34.120 --> 0:13:36.160 them against them, I don't know, man. I think this 0:13:36.240 --> 0:13:37.880 is just gonna be a close game. I agree that 0:13:37.920 --> 0:13:40.160 the wind is gonna be bad. Deshaun Watson, though, can 0:13:40.280 --> 0:13:43.120 run certainly. And I also I think Duke Johnson is 0:13:43.360 --> 0:13:44.920 just as good as David Johnson at this point in 0:13:44.960 --> 0:13:46.960 his career. I realized that he's never been given the 0:13:47.080 --> 0:13:48.840 rock to sort of do what he can do. But 0:13:48.880 --> 0:13:51.360 I do not I do not view this as a downgrad. 0:13:51.400 --> 0:13:53.240 I think they can jump off the ball a lot. 0:13:53.320 --> 0:13:56.240 I think you're, you know, maybe, yeah, it's gonna hamper 0:13:56.400 --> 0:13:59.160 the constant deep shots, but you know, the Browns can't 0:13:59.200 --> 0:14:02.160 stop the pass, you know, between Will Fuller and Brandon Cooks. 0:14:02.240 --> 0:14:04.040 I just view this as a very close game. If 0:14:04.040 --> 0:14:05.800 it was under a field goal, I might go for it, 0:14:05.840 --> 0:14:07.880 but with the hook. No, don't like it. I don't 0:14:07.920 --> 0:14:09.880 like it. So we're off. We're off. This is an 0:14:09.960 --> 0:14:13.840 ugly week, we know. Oh boy, you're gonna hate this one. Ready, 0:14:13.920 --> 0:14:15.240 let's got your first one. 0:14:15.240 --> 0:14:16.520 I might read hit your second one. 0:14:16.559 --> 0:14:18.360 I had to think about it, Matt. My other one 0:14:18.360 --> 0:14:20.560 that I was going to bring up instead of my 0:14:20.600 --> 0:14:24.080 first one was the Texans getting three and four. So 0:14:24.200 --> 0:14:26.160 you you see where we're all them. Let's actually see 0:14:26.200 --> 0:14:28.000 where a bed analyzer has this one. I just want 0:14:28.000 --> 0:14:30.360 to know exactly where it is because it strikes me. Oh, 0:14:30.400 --> 0:14:33.280 it is basically split. It's basically split at three and 0:14:33.280 --> 0:14:35.680 a half. It's fifty six percent in favor of Houston. 0:14:36.040 --> 0:14:38.080 I am one of that fifty six percent because I've 0:14:38.080 --> 0:14:42.120 already put in my picker. Okay, you know what really 0:14:42.120 --> 0:14:45.120 feels like a great idea this week? Matt betting a 0:14:45.160 --> 0:14:49.480 team that doesn't know how to win and cannot win 0:14:49.600 --> 0:14:52.000 a single game no matter what they do against the 0:14:52.080 --> 0:14:56.440 team that's riding super super high after two giant wins. 0:14:56.480 --> 0:14:58.360 And that is the charge where you're taking the charges 0:14:58.400 --> 0:14:59.400 of the road to get the charger. 0:14:59.520 --> 0:15:01.840 There is no, two and a half. There is no 0:15:01.880 --> 0:15:03.560 way from the Dolphins. 0:15:03.360 --> 0:15:07.080 That it's not even worth having having this conversation right now. 0:15:07.360 --> 0:15:12.560 This is such a big problem for the Chargers when 0:15:12.600 --> 0:15:14.520 it comes to going on the road on the East Coast. 0:15:14.600 --> 0:15:16.480 And you could say, well, it's Anthony Lynn getting away 0:15:16.480 --> 0:15:18.000 from the public, getting away from the media, and they 0:15:18.080 --> 0:15:19.440 might be able to go and win a game like this, 0:15:19.840 --> 0:15:23.760 But against that defense, I forget too, But forget against 0:15:23.800 --> 0:15:27.520 that defense. Uh uh, that's a scary that's a scary game. 0:15:27.560 --> 0:15:29.880 To go ahead. I love the Herbert you know, he 0:15:29.960 --> 0:15:32.120 wants to prove his draft pick against tu a Angle. 0:15:32.240 --> 0:15:34.840 I love all that. But that defense for the Dolphins 0:15:34.920 --> 0:15:35.560 is legitimate. 0:15:35.640 --> 0:15:37.720 The defense for the Dolphins is good. The defense for 0:15:37.760 --> 0:15:39.680 the Dolphins is good, I agree, and you know, because 0:15:39.720 --> 0:15:42.080 they're basically scoring defensive touch on stuff like that. But 0:15:42.080 --> 0:15:45.680 they're not. I mean, first of all, Arizona should have 0:15:45.680 --> 0:15:48.320 won that game, you know, for many reasons, but they 0:15:48.360 --> 0:15:51.840 outgained them significantly in yardage. I think the Dolphins have 0:15:52.000 --> 0:15:53.040 defense scores. 0:15:53.480 --> 0:15:55.480 When you when you get a defensive score and back 0:15:55.520 --> 0:15:57.600 to back weeks, you win most weeks like that's okay, 0:15:57.680 --> 0:15:58.640 that's huge. 0:15:58.680 --> 0:16:01.640 Time are you are you thinking on a defensive score 0:16:01.840 --> 0:16:02.480 in the game. 0:16:02.680 --> 0:16:06.240 Maybe it I'm just saying it's possible. That's what. That's 0:16:06.240 --> 0:16:08.880 why I'm scared of the game, because it's like, oh, 0:16:08.960 --> 0:16:10.840 I mean Herbert gets hit a lot. I mean he's 0:16:10.920 --> 0:16:12.840 under pressure. I think the number. I think he's like 0:16:12.880 --> 0:16:14.760 number three in the NFL right now in terms of 0:16:14.800 --> 0:16:17.360 passing under pressure. I mean, the dude is great, but 0:16:17.760 --> 0:16:20.320 he gets pressure because his offensive line doesn't block anybody. 0:16:20.680 --> 0:16:25.440 Yeah, no, I understand. We to look without Preston Williams. Okay, 0:16:25.560 --> 0:16:28.600 they've got DeVante Parker. I mean, Toua looked good to 0:16:28.680 --> 0:16:31.400 be To be fair, he looked good. They rolled him 0:16:31.400 --> 0:16:33.080 out of the pocket, they let him use his legs 0:16:33.080 --> 0:16:35.320 a little bit. That was good. I just don't think. 0:16:35.360 --> 0:16:36.920 I mean, they have no running backs. I don't know 0:16:36.960 --> 0:16:39.360 which one of their fifty, you know, guy off the 0:16:39.400 --> 0:16:41.600 street running backs is gonna be running the ball. I 0:16:41.680 --> 0:16:43.240 just don't trust them to be able to put up 0:16:43.240 --> 0:16:45.240 a ton of points. And look, I'm not gonna I'm 0:16:45.240 --> 0:16:46.760 not gonna stand up there again. 0:16:46.840 --> 0:16:48.640 One. Dolphins are on my list, by the way, I 0:16:48.960 --> 0:16:50.600 have Dolphins myst two and a half on my line. 0:16:50.720 --> 0:16:52.640 Right Well, where we're off to a rocky start and 0:16:52.800 --> 0:16:54.360 go to your next go to your next one. Hopefully 0:16:54.360 --> 0:16:55.880 we find some games that were at least on the 0:16:55.880 --> 0:16:56.600 same side. 0:16:56.400 --> 0:16:59.080 Of Okay, I don't like this number, but I'm gonna 0:16:59.120 --> 0:17:00.920 play it anyway. But because I think there's a chance 0:17:00.920 --> 0:17:03.520 they win the game outright, Big Ben's on schedule to 0:17:03.520 --> 0:17:05.919 play for the Pittsburgh Steelers. That's great news for me. 0:17:06.080 --> 0:17:07.960