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Speaker 1: Hey, everybody, welcome back to another episode of the Betting

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Speaker 1: Pros NFL Podcast. I'm your host, Dan Harris. With me,

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Speaker 1: of course, is Matt Parral. You can find us on

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Speaker 1: Twitter at Dan Harris Adian at Sports Talk. Matt, Matt,

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Speaker 1: how are you on this fine Thursday evening.

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Speaker 2: I'm rolling up my sleeves as we speak. Let's get

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Speaker 2: to work here. We need to go, all right, I

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Speaker 2: I this week sucks. That means we're gonna have a

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Speaker 2: great week.

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Speaker 1: Oh my god. I was legitimately thinking the same thing.

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Speaker 1: I felt pretty good about the last couple of weeks,

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Speaker 1: and we have just kind of been treading water and

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Speaker 1: a little bit under treading water where we need to go,

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Speaker 1: and now I feel terrible about it. So I'm ready

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Speaker 1: to just go.

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Speaker 2: Fine O.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's do our usual PSAs before we recap

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Speaker 1: last week, can get into this week's games discord? Of course,

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Speaker 1: I'm Matt on how many we're like pushing a thousand.

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Speaker 2: At this point one thousand. We're about nine to fifty

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Speaker 2: right now for people who are on it. I mean

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Speaker 2: during football games, we're approaching you know, two fifty three

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Speaker 2: hundred people at a time that are on it. It's

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Speaker 2: really cool because I figured out a feature that when

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Speaker 2: I play prop bets, there's an at everyone features and

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Speaker 2: I can send it out to everyone so everyone sees

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Speaker 2: the ads that they make, which I found that to

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Speaker 2: be incredibly cool last night.

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Speaker 1: So I'm aware because I've seen them them up and

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Speaker 1: I've been like, wait, what's going on. Is Matt trying

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Speaker 1: to talk to me?

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Speaker 2: Oh?

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Speaker 1: No, He's just telling everyone in our Discord channel that

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Speaker 1: he's got a prop bet, which is great. I actually

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Speaker 1: that's a great idea because as you know, sometimes I'm

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Speaker 1: the worst person ever. You guys know, I do a

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Speaker 1: ton of fantasy, especially on Sunday mornings. Sometimes I am

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Speaker 1: too late and I don't get my props into Matt.

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Speaker 1: So worst comes to worse, I'll put on Discord now

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Speaker 1: at everyone, so everybody knows that if I don't get

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Speaker 1: it to Matt by the time he does his YouTube

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Speaker 1: stream at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros but anyway,

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Speaker 1: the best you can go to join our Discord Bettingpros

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Speaker 1: dot com slash chat. We are also giving away an

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Speaker 1: AJ Brown helmet so you can get assigned helmet team

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Speaker 1: get that as well. Again, Betting Pros dot com slash chat. Second,

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Speaker 1: our prop bet cheat cheap bettingpros dot com slash props

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Speaker 1: consider compare consensus projections to the available props in the market. Again,

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Speaker 1: we're still tweaking it. We're still getting it up to

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Speaker 1: day and everything like that. But you can go check

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Speaker 1: it out offer some good ones, all right. So let's

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Speaker 1: get to every game on this weekend. First, the three cap.

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Speaker 1: Last weeks, once again we have gone three and two.

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Speaker 1: We went three and two for like six weeks straight.

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Speaker 1: Now we're two and three and back to back weeks.

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Speaker 1: I believe we are now twenty what is it, twenty

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Speaker 1: three and twenty two. I believe overall we're one game up,

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Speaker 1: whatever it is. Fifty one point one percent hit on

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Speaker 1: the Ravens lank two and a half to the Culture,

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Speaker 1: which is a game that I liked that we switched

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Speaker 1: in thankfully for the Chiefs game that we had settled

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Speaker 1: on last week. And we also liked the Saints getting

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Speaker 1: four and a half from the Bucks, which we hit on,

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Speaker 1: but we missed on the Seahawks getting two and a

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Speaker 1: half from the Bills. The Bills are like, you know,

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Speaker 1: our kryptonite or Matts kryptonite, that's for sure.

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Speaker 2: The court trill, who I made good money on the

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Speaker 2: bills betting its bills this year.

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Speaker 1: That's fair, that's fair, I bet. I just mean you

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Speaker 1: hate them. I bet cards, the cards laying four and

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Speaker 1: a half to the Dolphins and the pass lank seven

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Speaker 1: a half to the Jet's goodness, gracious, we're not even

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Speaker 1: gonna talk about that Monday night game. So wait, three

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Speaker 1: eighty fourth out of six eighty nine. We've got ways

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Speaker 1: to go, but not in any way out of it

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Speaker 1: at all. At this point. We've got plenty of time

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Speaker 1: to catch up, but we've got to get going now.

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Speaker 1: So it's gonna take a big week or two or three.

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Speaker 1: So let's get started right now with a week that

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Speaker 1: I hate, which you hate, which we're gonna go five

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Speaker 1: and oh so start us off. What's your number one pick?

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Speaker 2: All right? So I'm going to I went through and

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Speaker 2: I tried to kind of game theory based upon the

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Speaker 2: numbers for DraftKings. Okay, and so I have been getting

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Speaker 2: caught because now that I'm in the West Gate and

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Speaker 2: I'm in the DraftKings and I'm in the Circa, these

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Speaker 2: numbers matter right at this point in the year, there's

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Speaker 2: enough algorithms, there's enough information out there where the lines

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Speaker 2: can be very very sharp. This is where it gets

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Speaker 2: very difficult. This is when the public loses their sh

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Speaker 2: shirt from this week, Week ten on the NFL's very hard.

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Speaker 2: So when there's line discrepancies, I'm gonna be those are

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Speaker 2: going to raise red flags to me. So the bucks

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Speaker 2: are four and a half in our contest, yep, they

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Speaker 2: are five and a half six in climbing as we

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Speaker 2: roll here. I'm not saying it's a bad idea if

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Speaker 2: you get to seven or six and a half to

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Speaker 2: take the Panthers here plus the points. But in our

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Speaker 2: contest it's four and a half. It's below my hated five.

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Speaker 2: It's a bounce back spot. And I believe the Panthers

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Speaker 2: decided that they wanted to beat the Chiefs so badly

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Speaker 2: that they would go and do anything to have the

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Speaker 2: scalp that they could run around and say, Matt rule

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Speaker 2: a year one beat the defending champs on the road

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Speaker 2: because Christian McCaffrey should have been on a pitch count

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Speaker 2: last week. He wasn't. They forced in the ball so

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Speaker 2: much that they got him hurt. So now that after

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Speaker 2: changing their offense to fit in McCaffrey, they got to

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Speaker 2: go back to having him not be there. I know

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Speaker 2: that Bridgewater is a cover machine, but that pathetic effort

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Speaker 2: by the They're gonna turn things around this week. I

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Speaker 2: like the Bucks even on the road to lay it

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Speaker 2: down on the Panthers. I'm gonna lay the four and

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Speaker 2: a half tampamize four and a half.

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Speaker 1: Far and away, my number one pick, Far and away,

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Speaker 1: like maybe the only game that I really was like, yep,

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Speaker 1: this is one I absolutely want. I mean, if I'm

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Speaker 1: if I'm poking a hole in it. It's just that

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Speaker 1: Teddy Bridgewater covers. Teddy Bridgewater is the cover machine. It

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Speaker 1: is what he does. But it just doesn't matter to me.

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Speaker 1: You buying low on the Bucks after that embarrassing performance.

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Speaker 1: Tom Brady off a loss he usually covers. As you

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Speaker 1: mentioned about McCaffrey, he's out for this game. It's gonna

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Speaker 1: be Mike Davis, who again it played really well for

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Speaker 1: several games, but then he wore down. He played kind

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Speaker 1: of poorly the last three games. So that this is

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Speaker 1: this is no brainer to me, absolutely at four and

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Speaker 1: a half. And you're right that the spread is rising

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Speaker 1: and that that that's a great point, Matt. When do

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Speaker 1: the lines lock at the Circa and and the.

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Speaker 2: Other one when they come out, I mean basically either

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Speaker 2: Wednesday or third day. It's on COVID problems. So if

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Speaker 2: big COVID issues Circa and Westgate can they can hold

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Speaker 2: on to it. Sometimes I find out exactly who's playing,

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Speaker 2: but mostly it's Wednesday or Wednesday afternoon Thursday, same time

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Speaker 2: as the DraftKings. There's just different. There's discrepancies in the

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Speaker 2: numbers that are quite glaring. Like in the circle of

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Speaker 2: this it's five and a half, so it's four and

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Speaker 2: a half. We're getting extra point here.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, there's no brainer. On our bed analyzer, it's this

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Speaker 1: spread right now is the consensus sign is minus six,

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Speaker 1: and it's still overwhelmingly on the bucks.

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Speaker 2: I think seven. You may talk me into the Panthers,

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Speaker 2: but four and a half I'm taking tap.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, four and a half without that, Okay, So maybe

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Speaker 1: we will agree. I'm coming in here, Matt, and I'm

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Speaker 1: expecting us not to really agree on all of these

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Speaker 1: just because it's so ugly, but you might given the

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Speaker 1: way your preface to this entire week, which is where

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Speaker 1: the public's gonna lose their shirt. Maybe you won't hate

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Speaker 1: all of these. I really don't know. Let me see

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Speaker 1: which one I wanted to start with here. Okay, I'll

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Speaker 1: get one which think you'll like, but we'll see about it.

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Speaker 1: The forty nine Ers getting nine and a half from

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Speaker 1: the Saints. So here here's number one. I think the

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Speaker 1: Saints are going to be a very public play, if

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Speaker 1: for no other reason, then of course, the very classic.

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Speaker 1: They absolutely destroyed the Bucks and the forty nine Ers

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Speaker 1: look like perhaps the worst team in football on Thursday night. Now,

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Speaker 1: I realize you don't have Jimmy Garoppolo. I realize you

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Speaker 1: don't have George Kittle, But Kyle Shannan is a fantastic coach.

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Speaker 1: He is going to figure out a way to improve

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Speaker 1: the offense. You're gonna get at least Brandon aiyuk back.

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Speaker 1: Sounds like maybe Deebo Samuel will need another week. The

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Speaker 1: running backs are gonna need another week? Which are I mean?

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Speaker 1: Kiinnon is fine if it gets to work. I think

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Speaker 1: Kendrick Bourne, who's currently on the COVID list, is probably

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Speaker 1: gonna be able to come off. And again, this just

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Speaker 1: strikes me as a very huge overreaction to what happened

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Speaker 1: last week, so I'd love it if it were a ten.

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Speaker 1: Spreads actually down to nine in our consensus lines, and

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Speaker 1: the people in our bed on liies are leaning towards

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Speaker 1: the Saints. But it's ugly, But I like forty nine

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Speaker 1: ers getting nine and a half. Here.

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Speaker 2: You could pick all the boards one game, but this

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Speaker 2: is the game you're choosing.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that's correct, right.

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Speaker 2: You want to bet on a backup quarterback, back up,

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Speaker 2: running back, back up, backup, offensive line, backup, backup, defensive line, backup, secondary,

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Speaker 2: and this is the pick against a team that just

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Speaker 2: whipped and looked amazing against the Bucks.

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Speaker 1: Oh do so? I'm sorry, Just to be clear, are

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Speaker 1: we supposed to be like wow, that team just absolutely

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Speaker 1: destroyed the Bucks after, by the way, nearly losing to

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Speaker 1: the Bears the Bears, Like, let I'm not overreacting to

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Speaker 1: a week. This is what I said. I knew you

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Speaker 1: were going to hate this pack. I almost I tell

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Speaker 1: you said the public, I'm going to be the most

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Speaker 1: will the best line.

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Speaker 2: I'm willing. I'm willing to listen to it.

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Speaker 1: Go ahead.

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Speaker 2: Okay, I wouldn't listen to it and put it in

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Speaker 2: the maybe category. I'm just saying, of all that you

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Speaker 2: have the board to play with the board.

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Speaker 1: This is how every pick is ugly, Matt, every pick

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Speaker 1: is ugly this week. But yes, let me tell you,

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Speaker 1: what do you think the public split is going to

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Speaker 1: be on this game? What do you think the public well,

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Speaker 1: how much.

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Speaker 2: I think it'll get to ten and then I mean,

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Speaker 2: I think it just depends on how high the line

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Speaker 2: will go. I think if we get over eleven or twelve,

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Speaker 2: I think you'll see buy back.

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Speaker 1: But I think you're gonna see by I think I

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Speaker 1: think what you're gonna see. And I could be wrong.

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Speaker 1: And you, you, frankly, you, because you've been out there

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Speaker 1: so much, you have so much great insight, you understand

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Speaker 1: it more. I think there's gonna be a ton of

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Speaker 1: public play on the Saints this week, and I don't

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Speaker 1: think that line's well.

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Speaker 2: I think on the East Coast. You gotta remember that

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Speaker 2: in Vegas we have a lot of California people, So

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Speaker 2: that tend that tends to keep the California team's lines

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Speaker 2: to be a little bit in check. Yep, because if

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Speaker 2: you go double digits, just people here in Vegas are

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Speaker 2: smart enough and they're from California. A lot of them.

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Speaker 2: They're going, you know what, the Niners are gonna keep

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Speaker 2: the game close. But my problem is they're gonna have

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Speaker 2: to run the football, and I think that's the one

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Speaker 2: thing the Saints actually do a good job of stopping.

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Speaker 1: They do so they do they do. I agree, but

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Speaker 1: I think you're gonna give this team off a nationally

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Speaker 1: televised just absolute chi lacking where they didn't have any man.

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Speaker 1: I do fantasy football for a living and I barely

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Speaker 1: I could pick Richie James out of a lineup who

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Speaker 1: had one hundred and seventy yards right and the TOUCHDOWN'M like,

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Speaker 1: that's what they were looking at. I uk is a

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Speaker 1: huge get to have back, as is I expect Kendrick Bourne,

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Speaker 1: who I know people look here, but it's fine. Look,

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Speaker 1: there was one game this week that I was going

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Speaker 1: to push and it was the Bucks. That's the only

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Speaker 1: one I was going to basically lie in the mat for.

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Speaker 1: There are no other games. So trust me. The fact

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Speaker 1: that I chose this game next, it was only because

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Speaker 1: I was like, with this, maybe fits into Matt's narrative,

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Speaker 1: maybe he'll go for it, So go ahead to your

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Speaker 1: next one.

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Speaker 2: Just it's just ugly, Okay, so my next one is

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Speaker 2: a number that I would prefer to go down to three,

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Speaker 2: But it's three and a half for our contest, and

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Speaker 2: I don't I don't hate it at three and a half. Again,

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Speaker 2: I would preferred to three. But I think the Houston

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Speaker 2: Texans are done. And I think if you look at

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Speaker 2: the weather, okay, so this is what it's gonna be bad,

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Speaker 2: windy again, nasty and cold, okay, which is not Houston

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Speaker 2: Texans weather. Ye not. You can't fill the ball deep again, Okay.

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Speaker 2: So the same logic that we took this took the

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Speaker 2: Raiders to beat the Browns is the same logic. I'm

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Speaker 2: taking the Browns to win here because you're gonna get

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Speaker 2: Nick Chubb back, looks like. So you have two running

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Speaker 2: backs that are decent, and I don't think David Johnson's

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Speaker 2: questionable for this game for the Texans, I don't think

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Speaker 2: they can run the football all that well, I don't.

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Speaker 2: I mean, Deshaun Watson might be their best running back

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Speaker 2: in this game.

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Speaker 1: I just think give Duke Johnson some credit. Matt Duke

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Speaker 1: Johnson is fine, okay, perfectly.

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Speaker 2: He's not gonna beat the brown by himself on the road, Okay,

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Speaker 2: three out of that rather the three. But Cleveland minus

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Speaker 2: three and a half, I think from a pick play

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Speaker 2: I don't know if I'll bet it. I might bet it,

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Speaker 2: But from a pick play perspective, I like Cleveland to

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Speaker 2: cover that three and a half point line.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm on the other side. I'm on the other side.

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Speaker 2: Wow, I'm not gonna be The Texans play a two

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Speaker 2: and six football team.

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Speaker 1: Explain this to me, Okay, we like I mean, DVOA

268
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Speaker 1: is not the be all and all right of teams,

269
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Speaker 1: of course, but it's Aguell. The Texans are a better

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Speaker 1: team by DVOA than the Browns. I don't think the

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Speaker 1: Browns are really that good of a football team here, Matt,

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Speaker 1: especially when you're without Odell Beckham junior. Now, I get

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Speaker 1: they're gonna get Chubb back, They're gonna be able to

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Speaker 1: run the ball. Absolutely, But again, if this were.

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Speaker 2: You believe in DVOA, then then you know that the

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Speaker 2: rushing defense for the Texans is one of the worst

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Speaker 2: in the whole.

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Speaker 1: Fact that the Browns can run on anybody. But I

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Speaker 1: agree they're gonna run the Raiders.

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Speaker 2: That's why I put the Raiders. They couldn't run on

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Speaker 2: the Raiders.

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Speaker 1: All right, that's fair. But with Chubb, who I do

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Speaker 1: expect to be back here, they're gonna be able to

284
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Speaker 1: run with him and hunt. No Beckham, I think is

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Speaker 1: a bigger loss than kind of weird, fully.

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Speaker 2: Right, But in this weather condition, he wouldn't be a

287
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Speaker 2: factor anyway.

288
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Speaker 1: Yeah, I I first of all, as far as I

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Speaker 1: can tell, Matt, and you tell me what's the exact forecast,

290
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Speaker 1: because this is.

291
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Speaker 2: Not wins okay, which is the biggest issue of anything

292
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Speaker 2: when it comes to Yeah, it's gonna be cold, it's

293
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Speaker 2: gonna be windy, it's gonna be like the same weather

294
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Speaker 2: conditions as the last time the rate we talked about

295
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Speaker 2: the Browns with the Raiders, and we were all over

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Speaker 2: the Raiders and we won that game out right, sixteen

297
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Speaker 2: to six. So I think the under is in play

298
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Speaker 2: in this game major But and I think with the

299
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Speaker 2: under in play, that favors the Browns.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I just don't. I don't know, man. And you

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Speaker 1: know what's funny. You know what's funny, Matt, And it's

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Speaker 1: if people listening to this, I don't know if they

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Speaker 1: listen to our fantasy podcast. We did a DFS show

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Speaker 1: today with Chris Rabahn of the Action Network. Do you know, Chris, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: of course this is great. Legitimately, Matt, this was both

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Speaker 1: of our like one of our better picks on the board.

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Speaker 1: It randomly came up because we were talking about fantasy

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Speaker 1: and he was like, I like the Texans getting three

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Speaker 1: and a half. And I was like, yes, I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: use this when I talk about it with Matt Barral

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Speaker 1: on our show today. The fact that Chris also likes

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Speaker 1: them against them, I don't know, man. I think this

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Speaker 1: is just gonna be a close game. I agree that

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Speaker 1: the wind is gonna be bad. Deshaun Watson, though, can

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Speaker 1: run certainly. And I also I think Duke Johnson is

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Speaker 1: just as good as David Johnson at this point in

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Speaker 1: his career. I realized that he's never been given the

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Speaker 1: rock to sort of do what he can do. But

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Speaker 1: I do not I do not view this as a downgrad.

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Speaker 1: I think they can jump off the ball a lot.

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Speaker 1: I think you're, you know, maybe, yeah, it's gonna hamper

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Speaker 1: the constant deep shots, but you know, the Browns can't

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Speaker 1: stop the pass, you know, between Will Fuller and Brandon Cooks.

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Speaker 1: I just view this as a very close game. If

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Speaker 1: it was under a field goal, I might go for it,

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Speaker 1: but with the hook. No, don't like it. I don't

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Speaker 1: like it. So we're off. We're off. This is an

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Speaker 1: ugly week, we know. Oh boy, you're gonna hate this one. Ready,

329
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Speaker 1: let's got your first one.

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Speaker 2: I might read hit your second one.

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Speaker 1: I had to think about it, Matt. My other one

332
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Speaker 1: that I was going to bring up instead of my

333
00:14:20,600 --> 00:14:24,080
Speaker 1: first one was the Texans getting three and four. So

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Speaker 1: you you see where we're all them. Let's actually see

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Speaker 1: where a bed analyzer has this one. I just want

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Speaker 1: to know exactly where it is because it strikes me. Oh,

337
00:14:30,400 --> 00:14:33,280
Speaker 1: it is basically split. It's basically split at three and

338
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Speaker 1: a half. It's fifty six percent in favor of Houston.

339
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Speaker 1: I am one of that fifty six percent because I've

340
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Speaker 1: already put in my picker. Okay, you know what really

341
00:14:42,120 --> 00:14:45,120
Speaker 1: feels like a great idea this week? Matt betting a

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Speaker 1: team that doesn't know how to win and cannot win

343
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Speaker 1: a single game no matter what they do against the

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Speaker 1: team that's riding super super high after two giant wins.

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Speaker 2: And that is the charge where you're taking the charges

346
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Speaker 2: of the road to get the charger.

347
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Speaker 1: There is no, two and a half. There is no

348
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Speaker 1: way from the Dolphins.

349
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Speaker 2: That it's not even worth having having this conversation right now.

350
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Speaker 2: This is such a big problem for the Chargers when

351
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Speaker 2: it comes to going on the road on the East Coast.

352
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Speaker 2: And you could say, well, it's Anthony Lynn getting away

353
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Speaker 2: from the public, getting away from the media, and they

354
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Speaker 2: might be able to go and win a game like this,

355
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Speaker 2: But against that defense, I forget too, But forget against

356
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Speaker 2: that defense. Uh uh, that's a scary that's a scary game.

357
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Speaker 2: To go ahead. I love the Herbert you know, he

358
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Speaker 2: wants to prove his draft pick against tu a Angle.

359
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Speaker 2: I love all that. But that defense for the Dolphins

360
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Speaker 2: is legitimate.

361
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Speaker 1: The defense for the Dolphins is good. The defense for

362
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Speaker 1: the Dolphins is good, I agree, and you know, because

363
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Speaker 1: they're basically scoring defensive touch on stuff like that. But

364
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Speaker 1: they're not. I mean, first of all, Arizona should have

365
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Speaker 1: won that game, you know, for many reasons, but they

366
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Speaker 1: outgained them significantly in yardage. I think the Dolphins have

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Speaker 1: defense scores.

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Speaker 2: When you when you get a defensive score and back

369
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Speaker 2: to back weeks, you win most weeks like that's okay,

370
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Speaker 2: that's huge.

371
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Speaker 1: Time are you are you thinking on a defensive score

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Speaker 1: in the game.

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Speaker 2: Maybe it I'm just saying it's possible. That's what. That's

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Speaker 2: why I'm scared of the game, because it's like, oh,

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Speaker 2: I mean Herbert gets hit a lot. I mean he's

376
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Speaker 2: under pressure. I think the number. I think he's like

377
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Speaker 2: number three in the NFL right now in terms of

378
00:16:14,800 --> 00:16:17,360
Speaker 2: passing under pressure. I mean, the dude is great, but

379
00:16:17,760 --> 00:16:20,320
Speaker 2: he gets pressure because his offensive line doesn't block anybody.

380
00:16:20,680 --> 00:16:25,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I understand. We to look without Preston Williams. Okay,

381
00:16:25,560 --> 00:16:28,600
Speaker 1: they've got DeVante Parker. I mean, Toua looked good to

382
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Speaker 1: be To be fair, he looked good. They rolled him

383
00:16:31,400 --> 00:16:33,080
Speaker 1: out of the pocket, they let him use his legs

384
00:16:33,080 --> 00:16:35,320
Speaker 1: a little bit. That was good. I just don't think.

385
00:16:35,360 --> 00:16:36,920
Speaker 1: I mean, they have no running backs. I don't know

386
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Speaker 1: which one of their fifty, you know, guy off the

387
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Speaker 1: street running backs is gonna be running the ball. I

388
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Speaker 1: just don't trust them to be able to put up

389
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Speaker 1: a ton of points. And look, I'm not gonna I'm

390
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Speaker 1: not gonna stand up there again.

391
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Speaker 2: One. Dolphins are on my list, by the way, I

392
00:16:48,960 --> 00:16:50,600
Speaker 2: have Dolphins myst two and a half on my line.

393
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Speaker 1: Right Well, where we're off to a rocky start and

394
00:16:52,800 --> 00:16:54,360
Speaker 1: go to your next go to your next one. Hopefully

395
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Speaker 1: we find some games that were at least on the

396
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Speaker 1: same side.

397
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Speaker 2: Of Okay, I don't like this number, but I'm gonna

398
00:16:59,120 --> 00:17:00,920
Speaker 2: play it anyway. But because I think there's a chance

399
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Speaker 2: they win the game outright, Big Ben's on schedule to

400
00:17:03,520 --> 00:17:05,919
Speaker 2: play for the Pittsburgh Steelers. That's great news for me.

401
00:17:06,080 --> 00:17:07,960
Speaker 2: I like the Bengals plus six and a half to

402
00:17:08,000 --> 00:17:10,719
Speaker 2: potentially win this game outright. I think this is an

403
00:17:10,760 --> 00:17:13,080
Speaker 2: interesting matchup with the Bengals match up better.

404
00:17:13,040 --> 00:17:16,080
Speaker 1: And it's good news for you that Ben is gonna play.

405
00:17:16,160 --> 00:17:18,639
Speaker 2: Yes, Ben Roethlisberger is not playing well at all. His

406
00:17:18,760 --> 00:17:19,240
Speaker 2: number rat.

407
00:17:19,359 --> 00:17:22,359
Speaker 1: You think it's better for the Bengals if Ben plays

408
00:17:22,359 --> 00:17:23,280
Speaker 1: than Mason Rudolph.

409
00:17:23,359 --> 00:17:24,879
Speaker 2: Yeah, because I think in terms of the way that

410
00:17:24,920 --> 00:17:27,120
Speaker 2: they'll approach the game, I think without with Rudolph, they'll

411
00:17:27,160 --> 00:17:29,560
Speaker 2: be more conservative, they'll run the football more, the defense

412
00:17:29,560 --> 00:17:31,640
Speaker 2: will know they have to play better. I just think

413
00:17:31,680 --> 00:17:34,160
Speaker 2: that this is a chance here for this. I think

414
00:17:34,160 --> 00:17:36,680
Speaker 2: they could win the game outright, but if not, they'll

415
00:17:36,720 --> 00:17:39,880
Speaker 2: keep the game close. I would prefer seven, but I'll

416
00:17:39,880 --> 00:17:41,520
Speaker 2: take the six and a half points and I'll take

417
00:17:41,560 --> 00:17:43,440
Speaker 2: the Bengals all right.

418
00:17:43,520 --> 00:17:46,120
Speaker 1: So I guess what I will say is, I don't

419
00:17:46,200 --> 00:17:49,080
Speaker 1: despise this pick, like I'm not gonna I'm gonna put

420
00:17:49,119 --> 00:17:51,000
Speaker 1: on the maybe list for sure, and especially given where

421
00:17:51,040 --> 00:17:55,600
Speaker 1: we are, it's probably getting in there. I would agree

422
00:17:55,600 --> 00:17:57,720
Speaker 1: that I would prefer it at seven. I do like

423
00:17:57,840 --> 00:18:00,480
Speaker 1: faiting the Steelers because I don't think that the Steelers

424
00:18:00,520 --> 00:18:03,600
Speaker 1: are nearly as good as you know what they've shown now,

425
00:18:03,800 --> 00:18:06,040
Speaker 1: especially without Devin Bush. I don't think the defense like it.

426
00:18:06,080 --> 00:18:09,720
Speaker 1: Although are they gonna have Williamson from the Jets. If

427
00:18:09,760 --> 00:18:11,920
Speaker 1: he is, he's gonna help the defense. But yep, doesn't

428
00:18:11,920 --> 00:18:14,080
Speaker 1: matter to you if Mixing plays here, because it sounds

429
00:18:14,119 --> 00:18:15,160
Speaker 1: like maybe he won't even off.

430
00:18:15,160 --> 00:18:16,840
Speaker 2: The doesn't because I'm betting on Joe Burrow.

431
00:18:17,240 --> 00:18:21,119
Speaker 1: Okay, yeah, I mean it's I would like it at seven.

432
00:18:21,320 --> 00:18:22,920
Speaker 1: I'd like it at seven, but I think I'm on

433
00:18:22,960 --> 00:18:23,640
Speaker 1: the right side.

434
00:18:23,680 --> 00:18:25,359
Speaker 2: I think that it's seven and every of the contest.

435
00:18:25,359 --> 00:18:27,239
Speaker 2: That's why I pissed me off. I got back. I

436
00:18:27,280 --> 00:18:28,960
Speaker 2: was like, it's seven in both the Circa and in

437
00:18:29,040 --> 00:18:31,880
Speaker 2: the Westgates seven, six and a half an hours. I'm

438
00:18:31,880 --> 00:18:34,040
Speaker 2: gonna I'm gonna take it anyway, But I really I

439
00:18:34,040 --> 00:18:36,520
Speaker 2: don't like the six and a half with seven defense.

440
00:18:36,560 --> 00:18:37,960
Speaker 2: It would be it was seven, it would be my

441
00:18:38,040 --> 00:18:38,920
Speaker 2: number one plack pick.

442
00:18:39,320 --> 00:18:42,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean yeah. This strikes me as as the

443
00:18:42,080 --> 00:18:45,040
Speaker 1: Bengals finding a way to cover at the end of

444
00:18:45,080 --> 00:18:48,200
Speaker 1: the game. I don't think they're gonna do Yeah, yeah,

445
00:18:48,280 --> 00:18:50,840
Speaker 1: all right, I'll put in the maybe. But given where

446
00:18:50,880 --> 00:18:53,040
Speaker 1: we are the most likely, yes, because I do think

447
00:18:53,080 --> 00:18:55,000
Speaker 1: that's the right side at fifty eight percent. By the way,

448
00:18:55,119 --> 00:18:58,480
Speaker 1: people on the Bengals and our bet analyzer for the Dolphins,

449
00:18:58,520 --> 00:19:00,760
Speaker 1: by the way, since I didn't say it sixty are

450
00:19:00,760 --> 00:19:03,159
Speaker 1: on the wrong side. And on the Dolphins, I'll just

451
00:19:03,200 --> 00:19:06,160
Speaker 1: get all right, let's keep getting ugly, then, Matt, Let's

452
00:19:06,160 --> 00:19:10,240
Speaker 1: get really ugly. This is actually an interesting one because

453
00:19:10,800 --> 00:19:13,400
Speaker 1: you make a lot of money off the Bills. How

454
00:19:13,440 --> 00:19:16,680
Speaker 1: do you feel about the Cardinals laying the two and

455
00:19:16,720 --> 00:19:17,560
Speaker 1: a half to the Bills.

456
00:19:18,440 --> 00:19:21,280
Speaker 2: I think it's the right side. I'm just petrified of it.

457
00:19:21,400 --> 00:19:24,159
Speaker 2: You know, I don't like Josh Allen. I had a

458
00:19:24,160 --> 00:19:26,480
Speaker 2: long I had a long conversation with somebody from Pro

459
00:19:26,520 --> 00:19:29,080
Speaker 2: Football Focus on my radio show today. Who's arguing the

460
00:19:29,080 --> 00:19:31,560
Speaker 2: other side, Who was arguing the Bills. Yeah, and I

461
00:19:31,600 --> 00:19:35,080
Speaker 2: was arguing I was arguing the Cardinals, and just match

462
00:19:35,160 --> 00:19:37,600
Speaker 2: up wise, he thinks that because of the Manda Man

463
00:19:37,600 --> 00:19:39,880
Speaker 2: defense of the Cardinals play in their secondary, they're gonna

464
00:19:39,920 --> 00:19:42,720
Speaker 2: have a real tough time stopping the wide receivers with

465
00:19:42,920 --> 00:19:45,840
Speaker 2: pristine conditions for Buffalo, and this factor is in better

466
00:19:46,000 --> 00:19:48,800
Speaker 2: for the Bills because they play you know, they play

467
00:19:48,560 --> 00:19:51,880
Speaker 2: a warm weather style of football more than a more

468
00:19:51,920 --> 00:19:54,080
Speaker 2: than a cold weather style of football they do. Yeah,

469
00:19:54,119 --> 00:19:56,400
Speaker 2: so they're in Arizona, they're in the Dome, and they're

470
00:19:56,440 --> 00:19:58,480
Speaker 2: against that defense that does give up big yards in

471
00:19:58,520 --> 00:20:00,880
Speaker 2: the past play. So I'm with you on the Cardinals.

472
00:20:00,880 --> 00:20:02,600
Speaker 2: So if you want to hit the Cardinals, I'm okay

473
00:20:02,640 --> 00:20:05,080
Speaker 2: with it. I just have some people who are telling

474
00:20:05,080 --> 00:20:06,320
Speaker 2: me that we're on the wrong side.

475
00:20:06,560 --> 00:20:09,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, I'm gonna put in the maybe category. I look,

476
00:20:09,640 --> 00:20:11,919
Speaker 1: I don't love I don't love any games anymore, but

477
00:20:12,400 --> 00:20:16,240
Speaker 1: I think that it's the right side here. I think again,

478
00:20:16,320 --> 00:20:18,400
Speaker 1: it's a little bit of a you know, just kind

479
00:20:18,400 --> 00:20:21,960
Speaker 1: of the very basic Bilo Sell high. I think the

480
00:20:21,960 --> 00:20:24,000
Speaker 1: public is probably gonna like the Bills here after they

481
00:20:24,080 --> 00:20:26,639
Speaker 1: destroyed the Seahawks in that game. The Cardinals had that

482
00:20:26,800 --> 00:20:29,600
Speaker 1: horrible loss to the Dolphins, which again they could have

483
00:20:29,720 --> 00:20:32,359
Speaker 1: very easily won. I think the Bills traveling cross country

484
00:20:32,400 --> 00:20:34,920
Speaker 1: a homefield advantage doesn't mean anything really anymore, but I

485
00:20:34,960 --> 00:20:36,600
Speaker 1: do think cross country trips, and you brought up the

486
00:20:36,640 --> 00:20:38,880
Speaker 1: fair point about the Chargers coming cross country and again

487
00:20:39,080 --> 00:20:42,360
Speaker 1: harder west to go east. But still it is something

488
00:20:42,359 --> 00:20:45,159
Speaker 1: where I think, you know off that win. It's just

489
00:20:45,280 --> 00:20:48,520
Speaker 1: it's a decent time to sell the Bills. But I

490
00:20:48,520 --> 00:20:50,359
Speaker 1: don't feel great about it, so we'll put it in

491
00:20:50,440 --> 00:20:53,280
Speaker 1: the maybe category on the Cardinals. All Right, you got

492
00:20:53,280 --> 00:20:55,320
Speaker 1: anything else that you're remotely feeling?

493
00:20:55,800 --> 00:20:59,840
Speaker 2: One more game? Okay, this is horrible. Yes, just gonna

494
00:20:59,840 --> 00:21:01,480
Speaker 2: tell you this. This is my last on my list.

495
00:21:02,080 --> 00:21:06,280
Speaker 2: It's it's a play that even I don't like. But

496
00:21:06,320 --> 00:21:10,000
Speaker 2: it's a numbers play. Patriots in primetime catching seven and

497
00:21:10,040 --> 00:21:11,400
Speaker 2: a half points against the Ravens.

498
00:21:11,480 --> 00:21:13,480
Speaker 1: Oh goodness.

499
00:21:13,040 --> 00:21:16,119
Speaker 2: Here's the here's the thought. Okay, the thought is this,

500
00:21:16,720 --> 00:21:20,560
Speaker 2: Lamar Jackson against Bill Belichick. Defense has done pretty much nothing. Okay,

501
00:21:20,760 --> 00:21:24,600
Speaker 2: he has, Belichick has his number figured out. Even if

502
00:21:24,600 --> 00:21:26,919
Speaker 2: Gilmour doesn't play. He didn't practice today. But even if

503
00:21:26,960 --> 00:21:29,280
Speaker 2: Gimour doesn't play. I'm not really all that worried about it.

504
00:21:29,520 --> 00:21:31,439
Speaker 2: The biggest question I've got is whether or not the

505
00:21:31,440 --> 00:21:34,280
Speaker 2: Patriots can move the football against the Ravens defense. But

506
00:21:34,359 --> 00:21:36,880
Speaker 2: if that's my question, getting seven and a half means

507
00:21:36,880 --> 00:21:39,440
Speaker 2: there's a chance the Patriots are in this game, and

508
00:21:39,440 --> 00:21:42,440
Speaker 2: there's a chance that they have an opportunity to maybe have,

509
00:21:43,000 --> 00:21:45,239
Speaker 2: you know, a six point loss. It's a you know,

510
00:21:45,400 --> 00:21:49,000
Speaker 2: twenty seven to twenty one type of loss here at

511
00:21:49,000 --> 00:21:52,359
Speaker 2: home to the Ravens. The Ravens don't blow out anybody,

512
00:21:52,840 --> 00:21:55,720
Speaker 2: and Lamar Jackson, I'm gonna trust Belichick to have a

513
00:21:55,760 --> 00:21:58,159
Speaker 2: defensive scheme enough that they don't give up big plays

514
00:21:58,160 --> 00:22:00,080
Speaker 2: in the run game and they make him throw, and

515
00:22:00,119 --> 00:22:02,800
Speaker 2: as we know, when he has to throw, he's not

516
00:22:02,920 --> 00:22:06,000
Speaker 2: done very well this season. So it's a bet on Belichick.

517
00:22:06,280 --> 00:22:08,520
Speaker 2: It's a bet on their defense, not really their offense.

518
00:22:08,560 --> 00:22:10,000
Speaker 2: But give me the seven and a half, I'll take

519
00:22:10,000 --> 00:22:11,040
Speaker 2: the Patriots in primetime.

520
00:22:11,560 --> 00:22:14,040
Speaker 1: Was that the same defense that let Joe Flacco throw

521
00:22:14,160 --> 00:22:15,159
Speaker 1: three touchdown passes?

522
00:22:15,280 --> 00:22:17,479
Speaker 2: Yeah, but Stefan Gilmour wasn't there, And arguably you can

523
00:22:17,520 --> 00:22:19,359
Speaker 2: make a case that Flacco is a much better passer

524
00:22:19,440 --> 00:22:24,520
Speaker 2: than Lamar Jackson. Yeah, okay, I mean what would you

525
00:22:24,560 --> 00:22:26,199
Speaker 2: argue that point? Would you if you had to throw

526
00:22:26,240 --> 00:22:27,919
Speaker 2: a pass for your life if you had Lamar Jackson

527
00:22:27,920 --> 00:22:30,080
Speaker 2: throwing or Joe Flacco throwing? Who would you take?

528
00:22:30,680 --> 00:22:33,040
Speaker 1: I think I just you know, right, make sure my

529
00:22:33,119 --> 00:22:34,679
Speaker 1: will was there.

530
00:22:35,160 --> 00:22:36,800
Speaker 2: Joe Flacco any day of the week. And you know

531
00:22:36,880 --> 00:22:39,199
Speaker 2: it's okay, Joe Flacco maybe not mister elite, but Joe

532
00:22:39,240 --> 00:22:40,880
Speaker 2: Flacco can throw the football a heck a lot better

533
00:22:40,880 --> 00:22:41,920
Speaker 2: than mar Jackson.

534
00:22:41,640 --> 00:22:45,359
Speaker 1: Can regardless, regardless, And again, we don't know if Gilmore

535
00:22:45,400 --> 00:22:46,720
Speaker 1: is gonna play here anyway, because I was one of

536
00:22:46,760 --> 00:22:49,119
Speaker 1: your points. But even if it doesn't really matter because

537
00:22:49,160 --> 00:22:50,880
Speaker 1: what you know, it's not as if you're like, oh god,

538
00:22:50,880 --> 00:22:52,920
Speaker 1: they're gonna what are they gonna take away? Hollywood Brown.

539
00:22:52,960 --> 00:22:55,680
Speaker 1: Hollywood Brown hasn't been involved in you know, anything games

540
00:22:55,800 --> 00:22:59,560
Speaker 1: or whatever. I get. I get sort of the theory

541
00:22:59,680 --> 00:23:03,760
Speaker 1: of it, but man, Matt, watching that team on Monday

542
00:23:03,840 --> 00:23:09,880
Speaker 1: night just look absolutely ridiculous. Like, if you're the Ravens

543
00:23:09,880 --> 00:23:12,600
Speaker 1: and you're defending this team, what are you? What are

544
00:23:12,600 --> 00:23:15,520
Speaker 1: you worried about? You see, maybe you double team Jacobe

545
00:23:15,520 --> 00:23:17,800
Speaker 1: Myers if you absolutely have to, and you just guard

546
00:23:17,800 --> 00:23:20,359
Speaker 1: against the run. What what in the world? How are

547
00:23:20,359 --> 00:23:21,879
Speaker 1: they going to move the ball? How are they going

548
00:23:21,920 --> 00:23:23,560
Speaker 1: to camp any points camp?

549
00:23:23,760 --> 00:23:25,879
Speaker 2: That's the only that you have to let Cam go

550
00:23:26,000 --> 00:23:27,760
Speaker 2: off and you and you have to let Cam run

551
00:23:27,760 --> 00:23:30,960
Speaker 2: the football. And I just I think that this team

552
00:23:31,119 --> 00:23:34,399
Speaker 2: is going to have a game plan like they do

553
00:23:34,560 --> 00:23:37,040
Speaker 2: every week where everyone goes, how are the Patriots going

554
00:23:37,119 --> 00:23:39,399
Speaker 2: to do it? And then they do it, and then

555
00:23:39,440 --> 00:23:42,280
Speaker 2: and then Belichick is like, oh, that's right, it's Belichick. Yeah,

556
00:23:42,560 --> 00:23:44,080
Speaker 2: I don't know in the game. I'm just saying this

557
00:23:44,119 --> 00:23:45,879
Speaker 2: that the hook theres is a big deal to me.

558
00:23:45,960 --> 00:23:47,520
Speaker 2: Seven and a half is a big deal to me.

559
00:23:48,200 --> 00:23:50,479
Speaker 1: Yeah, man, I don't know. Let me check the bed

560
00:23:50,520 --> 00:23:52,439
Speaker 1: out of all. Let me see where everybody's at, just

561
00:23:52,480 --> 00:23:54,960
Speaker 1: to know where we are. Sixty eight percent on the

562
00:23:55,040 --> 00:23:58,880
Speaker 1: Ravens seven without the hook, without the hook, So.

563
00:23:58,800 --> 00:24:00,840
Speaker 2: See, the hook matters to me, and a half matters

564
00:24:00,840 --> 00:24:01,040
Speaker 2: to me.

565
00:24:01,359 --> 00:24:02,720
Speaker 1: I would just like it on the record that you

566
00:24:02,760 --> 00:24:05,360
Speaker 1: crushed me for going after the forty nine ers and

567
00:24:05,480 --> 00:24:08,800
Speaker 1: you're willing to go with the Patriots.

568
00:24:07,800 --> 00:24:11,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, because I know, Wait, how many rings does Shanahan have? Oh?

569
00:24:11,480 --> 00:24:13,560
Speaker 1: Man, are we have a Belichick? Are we gonna have

570
00:24:13,560 --> 00:24:15,720
Speaker 1: to debate. Look, Belichick is what happened.

571
00:24:15,880 --> 00:24:18,280
Speaker 2: What happened is the biggest game of his life last year.

572
00:24:18,359 --> 00:24:21,640
Speaker 2: What happened? Belichick has right got he lost that game.

573
00:24:21,680 --> 00:24:24,200
Speaker 1: Okay, Valichack has the same number of rings that he

574
00:24:24,320 --> 00:24:27,840
Speaker 1: had on Monday night when he nearly let the one

575
00:24:27,880 --> 00:24:31,480
Speaker 1: of the historically bad Teamsall do.

576
00:24:31,440 --> 00:24:33,600
Speaker 2: You know what to just do against the Patriots? You

577
00:24:33,680 --> 00:24:35,960
Speaker 2: know that, you know what the rivalry is like between

578
00:24:35,960 --> 00:24:36,399
Speaker 2: those two.

579
00:24:36,880 --> 00:24:39,719
Speaker 1: Just stop. You need to stop making excuses.

580
00:24:40,800 --> 00:24:42,280
Speaker 2: To a team. I'm not debating that point. I'm just

581
00:24:42,280 --> 00:24:44,400
Speaker 2: talking about this from a point spread perspective. I'm talking

582
00:24:44,400 --> 00:24:46,520
Speaker 2: about winning and losing here, I'm talking about keeping it

583
00:24:46,520 --> 00:24:48,240
Speaker 2: within seven points. It's a big.

584
00:24:48,040 --> 00:24:50,560
Speaker 1: Difference to be as fair as But I don't have

585
00:24:50,600 --> 00:24:52,919
Speaker 1: a lean at all on this game. I guess you know,

586
00:24:53,040 --> 00:24:55,840
Speaker 1: to be very because you're not wrong. We talked we

587
00:24:56,000 --> 00:24:58,639
Speaker 1: you know, switched to the Ravens last week, and for

588
00:24:58,680 --> 00:25:01,400
Speaker 1: a while that looked like the wrong side. And maybe

589
00:25:01,400 --> 00:25:03,800
Speaker 1: if Johnthan Taylor doesn't fumble early like that and kind

590
00:25:03,800 --> 00:25:05,520
Speaker 1: of change the entire tenor of the game. Although Gus

591
00:25:05,680 --> 00:25:08,200
Speaker 1: Edward's fumbled on the goal line as well, so maybe

592
00:25:08,200 --> 00:25:10,840
Speaker 1: not but yeah, that game didn't look good and the Ravens.

593
00:25:11,000 --> 00:25:13,439
Speaker 1: Did you tweet out that the Ravens offense is broken

594
00:25:13,560 --> 00:25:15,080
Speaker 1: or something? Somebody tweeted out.

595
00:25:14,960 --> 00:25:16,000
Speaker 2: I feel I think it is broken.

596
00:25:16,040 --> 00:25:17,920
Speaker 1: Person, Yeah, I think you might have tweeted that out somebody.

597
00:25:17,960 --> 00:25:18,800
Speaker 2: Game it looked broken.

598
00:25:19,119 --> 00:25:19,920
Speaker 1: Now, that's what I mean.

599
00:25:20,040 --> 00:25:21,880
Speaker 2: During the game, they just can't do anything. I mean,

600
00:25:21,920 --> 00:25:24,040
Speaker 2: I mean, look the Colts defense. We'll see it, We'll

601
00:25:24,040 --> 00:25:27,159
Speaker 2: see it tonight. Colt's defense is good. It's on paper,

602
00:25:27,240 --> 00:25:30,280
Speaker 2: it's paper good. And and Lamar Jackson made them look like,

603
00:25:30,440 --> 00:25:31,760
Speaker 2: you know, the Steel Curtain.

604
00:25:31,880 --> 00:25:34,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, let's keep talking about every other game

605
00:25:34,840 --> 00:25:36,600
Speaker 1: here and just see whether or not we get to

606
00:25:36,640 --> 00:25:39,200
Speaker 1: anywhere that we like, because right now we're legitimately looking

607
00:25:39,240 --> 00:25:41,600
Speaker 1: at one game that we like, maybe two games that

608
00:25:41,640 --> 00:25:44,159
Speaker 1: we don't absolutely despise, and then everything else is kind

609
00:25:44,160 --> 00:25:45,760
Speaker 1: of up in the air. So let's let's just talk

610
00:25:45,800 --> 00:25:47,600
Speaker 1: through each of the games. I'm not giving you a

611
00:25:47,680 --> 00:25:51,040
Speaker 1: side when I list, I'm just gonna list the favorite first,

612
00:25:51,119 --> 00:25:54,320
Speaker 1: so don't take from it that I'm I'm asking for

613
00:25:54,359 --> 00:25:56,840
Speaker 1: a side. How do you feel about the Rams laying

614
00:25:56,880 --> 00:25:59,480
Speaker 1: one and a half points to the Seahawks in Los Angeles.

615
00:25:59,640 --> 00:26:02,080
Speaker 2: It's just a tough bounce back spot because I think

616
00:26:02,240 --> 00:26:06,000
Speaker 2: Seattle they turned the ball over so many times last week.

617
00:26:06,040 --> 00:26:08,960
Speaker 2: I think they're angry about it. I'm just concerned if that,

618
00:26:09,240 --> 00:26:12,120
Speaker 2: you know, four leaf clover is gonna wilt there for Seattle,

619
00:26:12,160 --> 00:26:14,159
Speaker 2: with how many games they've won on the last second

620
00:26:14,280 --> 00:26:17,280
Speaker 2: and you know, getting getting to all the breaks, is

621
00:26:17,280 --> 00:26:18,800
Speaker 2: it now going to go against them and they're going

622
00:26:18,880 --> 00:26:20,359
Speaker 2: to start to cough the football up and turn the

623
00:26:20,359 --> 00:26:23,119
Speaker 2: football over and come back down to Earth. So I mean,

624
00:26:23,160 --> 00:26:25,240
Speaker 2: I like Seattle. I think Seal's the right side in

625
00:26:25,280 --> 00:26:27,600
Speaker 2: that game, but I'm concerned about it.

626
00:26:28,160 --> 00:26:30,159
Speaker 1: I actually think the Rams might be the right side here.

627
00:26:30,400 --> 00:26:33,240
Speaker 1: And I think, really what it is that I'm no

628
00:26:33,320 --> 00:26:38,640
Speaker 1: longer scared to go against the Seahawks because that defense

629
00:26:38,720 --> 00:26:42,600
Speaker 1: is historically bad, Yeah, historically bad. And you know, Cooper

630
00:26:42,600 --> 00:26:45,320
Speaker 1: Cups will banged up in this game, and you know

631
00:26:45,320 --> 00:26:47,600
Speaker 1: the Rams are but you know, I don't I don't

632
00:26:47,600 --> 00:26:50,520
Speaker 1: think Jalen Ramsey can necessarily shut down DK Metcalf. But

633
00:26:50,560 --> 00:26:52,440
Speaker 1: they did know the Rams are really good defense, and

634
00:26:52,440 --> 00:26:55,120
Speaker 1: they're they're underrated a bit, and you're giving you're giving

635
00:26:55,160 --> 00:26:58,600
Speaker 1: McVeigh two weeks to prepare for this act.

636
00:26:59,119 --> 00:27:00,840
Speaker 2: Look, the Rams are might picked to win the division.

637
00:27:00,880 --> 00:27:02,240
Speaker 2: So if you wanted to, if you wanted to have

638
00:27:02,320 --> 00:27:03,879
Speaker 2: this be one of our picks, I wouldn't fight you

639
00:27:03,920 --> 00:27:07,360
Speaker 2: on it because I think I just I'm concerned about

640
00:27:07,400 --> 00:27:10,360
Speaker 2: the I'm concerned about what happened last week. Yeah, if

641
00:27:10,359 --> 00:27:13,200
Speaker 2: Seattle doesn't turn the football over, it turns into a shootout,

642
00:27:13,240 --> 00:27:16,000
Speaker 2: and then I'm trusting Jared Goff to be a shootout,

643
00:27:16,000 --> 00:27:18,520
Speaker 2: which is like true, Oh, but you're right. The Rams

644
00:27:18,520 --> 00:27:20,760
Speaker 2: defense is tremendous. It's the strength of their defense. It

645
00:27:20,800 --> 00:27:22,280
Speaker 2: was a circular team and if they could get a

646
00:27:22,359 --> 00:27:25,480
Speaker 2: lead and then keep the ball away from Ross, then yeah,

647
00:27:25,520 --> 00:27:27,399
Speaker 2: I mean the recipe is there for a Rams victory.

648
00:27:27,680 --> 00:27:30,000
Speaker 1: All right, let's put it on the maybe gross list.

649
00:27:30,320 --> 00:27:32,280
Speaker 1: How about the Bears laying two and a half points

650
00:27:32,280 --> 00:27:34,920
Speaker 1: to the Vikings in Chicago on Monday night football?

651
00:27:35,000 --> 00:27:38,480
Speaker 2: And so the stat is this going into tonight, which

652
00:27:38,600 --> 00:27:42,360
Speaker 2: it factors in teams who are playing at home against

653
00:27:42,359 --> 00:27:45,919
Speaker 2: divisional opponents that are catching points are twelve and one

654
00:27:45,960 --> 00:27:49,000
Speaker 2: against the spread. Yep, so the Bears factor into this.

655
00:27:49,440 --> 00:27:50,920
Speaker 2: So if I was going to take a play, not

656
00:27:51,000 --> 00:27:53,000
Speaker 2: that I'm going to go strictly on just on a trend,

657
00:27:53,359 --> 00:27:55,359
Speaker 2: but I think it's a decent trend to look at.

658
00:27:55,800 --> 00:27:57,760
Speaker 2: I would take the Bears at home against the Vikings

659
00:27:57,800 --> 00:27:59,480
Speaker 2: because I don't think the Vikings can do much else

660
00:27:59,480 --> 00:28:01,560
Speaker 2: besides doubt and Cook and the Bears probably gonna take

661
00:28:01,600 --> 00:28:02,000
Speaker 2: him away.

662
00:28:02,280 --> 00:28:04,280
Speaker 1: By the way, I said that wrong. I apologize the

663
00:28:04,280 --> 00:28:06,160
Speaker 1: Bears are getting to an a half points, not laying

664
00:28:06,160 --> 00:28:06,919
Speaker 1: to an a half points.

665
00:28:07,000 --> 00:28:08,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I said it.

666
00:28:09,200 --> 00:28:11,960
Speaker 1: I'm just saying for the listeners. You knew it correctly,

667
00:28:12,000 --> 00:28:14,640
Speaker 1: You knew it correctly. Yeah. I kind of don't mind

668
00:28:14,680 --> 00:28:19,040
Speaker 1: the Bears here, Matt. I mean, I'm a little I'd

669
00:28:19,040 --> 00:28:21,280
Speaker 1: like Dave Montgomery to play. We don't know, because he's

670
00:28:21,320 --> 00:28:25,240
Speaker 1: got the concussion. But Kirk Cousins especially, you know, in

671
00:28:25,560 --> 00:28:30,679
Speaker 1: primetime in Chicago. I don't know. I kind of like

672
00:28:30,800 --> 00:28:32,960
Speaker 1: it's gross because I don't want to really back and

673
00:28:33,240 --> 00:28:35,880
Speaker 1: I've been fading the Bears quite a bit. But I

674
00:28:36,000 --> 00:28:38,000
Speaker 1: do think that they're going to be able to keep

675
00:28:38,040 --> 00:28:40,920
Speaker 1: this close and probably win it in the end. The

676
00:28:41,000 --> 00:28:44,760
Speaker 1: Vikings just are not a good team. Their secondary is

677
00:28:44,840 --> 00:28:48,440
Speaker 1: not good. You know, Nick Foles is willing to take shots.

678
00:28:48,760 --> 00:28:51,440
Speaker 1: You know, Mooney's kind of coming into his own a

679
00:28:51,480 --> 00:28:53,920
Speaker 1: little bit. I would I'd be willing to take the

680
00:28:53,920 --> 00:28:55,360
Speaker 1: Bears here if you came in and said I like

681
00:28:55,440 --> 00:28:56,880
Speaker 1: the Bears, I'd be willing to do it.

682
00:28:56,960 --> 00:28:58,760
Speaker 2: But in primetime I don't mind it.

683
00:28:59,360 --> 00:29:02,880
Speaker 1: I I yeah, all right, let's put it on the

684
00:29:02,920 --> 00:29:05,680
Speaker 1: maybe list. Then we've got NonStop Maybes going on.

685
00:29:05,720 --> 00:29:06,200
Speaker 2: I love it.

686
00:29:06,280 --> 00:29:10,040
Speaker 1: Okay, hold on, what have we talked about yet?

687
00:29:10,040 --> 00:29:11,920
Speaker 2: Philly and New York and Jacksonville and Green.

688
00:29:11,720 --> 00:29:14,960
Speaker 1: Bay Fit and the Lions. Let's let's get to Let's

689
00:29:14,960 --> 00:29:17,600
Speaker 1: get to Philly and New York. The Eagles are laying

690
00:29:17,680 --> 00:29:19,520
Speaker 1: nine and three and a half. Pardon me, three and

691
00:29:19,560 --> 00:29:21,640
Speaker 1: a half to the Giants in New York. By the way,

692
00:29:21,680 --> 00:29:23,600
Speaker 1: with the with the Bills and the Bears and Vikings,

693
00:29:23,600 --> 00:29:26,200
Speaker 1: fifty percent our bet analyzer are on the Vikings, just

694
00:29:26,280 --> 00:29:28,680
Speaker 1: so everybody knows. Okay, So yeah, what do you think

695
00:29:28,720 --> 00:29:30,720
Speaker 1: the Eagles laying three and a half to the Giants in.

696
00:29:30,720 --> 00:29:33,040
Speaker 2: New York's same conversation. In the last time, it's a

697
00:29:33,040 --> 00:29:36,320
Speaker 2: home dog in division. Give me the Giants post three

698
00:29:36,320 --> 00:29:37,680
Speaker 2: and a half. If I bet the game, it's Giants

699
00:29:37,720 --> 00:29:40,280
Speaker 2: post three and a half all day over the Eagles.

700
00:29:40,160 --> 00:29:42,680
Speaker 1: That's how I feel, too like, and I don't love

701
00:29:42,720 --> 00:29:45,320
Speaker 1: it by any means, right, but that's how I feel.

702
00:29:45,360 --> 00:29:47,600
Speaker 1: If you're giving me if if I had any confidence

703
00:29:47,640 --> 00:29:51,040
Speaker 1: in Daniel Jones at all to just not bungle it

704
00:29:51,160 --> 00:29:54,160
Speaker 1: up completely and blow the game at like the last minute,

705
00:29:54,160 --> 00:29:55,600
Speaker 1: I would take them to keep it closed. I think

706
00:29:55,640 --> 00:29:58,400
Speaker 1: people are gonna be like Eagles off bye, here they come,

707
00:29:58,600 --> 00:30:00,520
Speaker 1: blah blah blah, And I think you're just gonna still

708
00:30:00,680 --> 00:30:03,080
Speaker 1: be like, why is Carson Wentz holding the ball for

709
00:30:03,160 --> 00:30:05,520
Speaker 1: eight seconds and throwing it off his back foot into

710
00:30:05,560 --> 00:30:08,960
Speaker 1: triple coverage? So another game where I'll put in the

711
00:30:08,960 --> 00:30:11,240
Speaker 1: maybe list. I mean, the Giants getting three and a

712
00:30:11,280 --> 00:30:13,560
Speaker 1: half whatever, I mean, give us some fun here.

713
00:30:13,640 --> 00:30:15,160
Speaker 2: This is what matters there to me.

714
00:30:15,640 --> 00:30:19,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, the hook matters exactly. Okay, let's go to the

715
00:30:19,080 --> 00:30:23,800
Speaker 1: next game. The Lions laying four and a half to Washington.

716
00:30:23,960 --> 00:30:27,160
Speaker 2: I hate this game so much. Yes, there's nothing in

717
00:30:27,200 --> 00:30:29,240
Speaker 2: this game. I like, there is no way you can

718
00:30:29,400 --> 00:30:32,080
Speaker 2: convince me to take a slide in this game besides

719
00:30:32,120 --> 00:30:34,240
Speaker 2: just taking the points because both teams are horrible. So

720
00:30:34,280 --> 00:30:36,520
Speaker 2: if I had to bet, it'll take the Washington team.

721
00:30:36,520 --> 00:30:38,720
Speaker 2: But I hate I mean, I just absolutely hate this game.

722
00:30:38,920 --> 00:30:42,360
Speaker 1: You couldn't force me to take this game legitimately under

723
00:30:42,360 --> 00:30:45,400
Speaker 1: any circumstances. There's not I don't have a single feeling

724
00:30:45,440 --> 00:30:48,760
Speaker 1: about this game other than runaway Packers laying three and

725
00:30:48,840 --> 00:30:51,080
Speaker 1: a half thirteen and a half. Goodness, I'm so sorry

726
00:30:51,360 --> 00:30:53,960
Speaker 1: Packer's laying thirteen and a half to the Jaguars. Before

727
00:30:53,960 --> 00:30:55,600
Speaker 1: you do, hold on, I do want to see if

728
00:30:55,640 --> 00:30:58,920
Speaker 1: our bet Atalyzer is where it looks at right now

729
00:30:59,000 --> 00:31:02,960
Speaker 1: in that game. No, that is legitimately the most even

730
00:31:03,040 --> 00:31:05,640
Speaker 1: split game on everybody. I bet you it's also going

731
00:31:05,720 --> 00:31:07,440
Speaker 1: to be the least bet game of the weekend because

732
00:31:07,440 --> 00:31:09,480
Speaker 1: nobody wants to go there. But it's fifty four percent

733
00:31:09,480 --> 00:31:13,080
Speaker 1: if anybody cares is backing the Washington football team Lange

734
00:31:13,080 --> 00:31:15,640
Speaker 1: four and a half. Anyway, the Packers laying thirteen and

735
00:31:15,680 --> 00:31:18,360
Speaker 1: a half to the Jaguars in Green Bay, I.

736
00:31:18,360 --> 00:31:21,960
Speaker 2: Mean, how do you? I mean, this is the ultimate

737
00:31:22,040 --> 00:31:25,640
Speaker 2: professional bet. Okay, professionals are going to lay thirteen and

738
00:31:25,680 --> 00:31:28,960
Speaker 2: a half just blindly, right, just blindly because it's thirteen

739
00:31:28,960 --> 00:31:31,080
Speaker 2: and a half points in the NFL, and they pay

740
00:31:31,120 --> 00:31:34,240
Speaker 2: their players too. But I don't know how in the

741
00:31:34,280 --> 00:31:38,080
Speaker 2: world you could take Jacksonville on the same level. I

742
00:31:38,080 --> 00:31:40,280
Speaker 2: don't know how you lay nearly two touchdowns at home

743
00:31:40,720 --> 00:31:43,840
Speaker 2: for this Packers team. I just don't trust either one

744
00:31:43,880 --> 00:31:46,320
Speaker 2: of these teams to cover. So if I had to

745
00:31:46,320 --> 00:31:48,840
Speaker 2: bet it, I would say Green Bay based on quarterback play,

746
00:31:49,280 --> 00:31:51,040
Speaker 2: but no way would I ever take it.

747
00:31:51,280 --> 00:31:53,479
Speaker 1: Yeah, if there's wind in this game as well, I

748
00:31:53,480 --> 00:31:55,600
Speaker 1: believe this is the other wind game. I think there

749
00:31:55,600 --> 00:31:57,160
Speaker 1: were two. I believe this was the other one. I

750
00:31:57,160 --> 00:32:00,520
Speaker 1: could be wrong, but yeah, like I can't, I don't know.

751
00:32:00,960 --> 00:32:05,360
Speaker 1: I did not learn anything about Jake Luton last week,

752
00:32:05,480 --> 00:32:06,160
Speaker 1: like I was.

753
00:32:06,320 --> 00:32:08,880
Speaker 2: He played throw. Yeah, I don't know how much you

754
00:32:08,880 --> 00:32:11,400
Speaker 2: saw him in college, but that kid can throw a football.

755
00:32:11,400 --> 00:32:13,360
Speaker 1: He can throw. He can throw and if you you know,

756
00:32:13,440 --> 00:32:15,240
Speaker 1: although he doesn't move all that well, that was a

757
00:32:15,320 --> 00:32:17,000
Speaker 1: nifty spin move to get to the ends on there

758
00:32:17,040 --> 00:32:20,040
Speaker 1: against the Texans, But it was the Texans defense. I

759
00:32:20,080 --> 00:32:21,920
Speaker 1: have no idea what he's going to look like in

760
00:32:22,080 --> 00:32:25,440
Speaker 1: Lambeau against a wrested Packers defense. So really not a

761
00:32:25,480 --> 00:32:28,000
Speaker 1: game I want to trust on either side. I think

762
00:32:28,040 --> 00:32:31,240
Speaker 1: the only game that we haven't talked about is the

763
00:32:31,280 --> 00:32:34,000
Speaker 1: Broncos getting five and a half from the Raiders in

764
00:32:34,080 --> 00:32:36,280
Speaker 1: Las Vegas. It's five and a half. So yeah, I

765
00:32:36,320 --> 00:32:37,320
Speaker 1: know you hate the Raiders.

766
00:32:37,400 --> 00:32:39,040
Speaker 2: This is one of my bets of the week for

767
00:32:38,560 --> 00:32:42,160
Speaker 2: the Daily Juice. I've already bet it. The over in

768
00:32:42,200 --> 00:32:44,640
Speaker 2: this game is gonna hit. Ah. Okay, the over is fifty.

769
00:32:44,760 --> 00:32:47,360
Speaker 2: This is I have no idea why the number is fifty.

770
00:32:47,480 --> 00:32:50,480
Speaker 2: It is bizarre to me why this number is so low.

771
00:32:50,520 --> 00:32:53,080
Speaker 2: Denver is not going to get any I mean, the

772
00:32:53,160 --> 00:32:55,520
Speaker 2: Raiders are going to get any pressure on Drew Locke

773
00:32:55,640 --> 00:32:57,280
Speaker 2: and the one thing that Drew Lot can do is

774
00:32:57,360 --> 00:33:00,360
Speaker 2: throw with a clean pocket like most quarterbacks can. The Raers,

775
00:33:00,400 --> 00:33:01,840
Speaker 2: on the other hand, are gonna run the ball and

776
00:33:01,840 --> 00:33:04,000
Speaker 2: throw the ball deep. I think Ruggs is a monster game.

777
00:33:04,080 --> 00:33:06,880
Speaker 2: I think you see Waller have a monster game. I

778
00:33:07,000 --> 00:33:09,480
Speaker 2: just think points points points in this game. I hate

779
00:33:09,480 --> 00:33:11,200
Speaker 2: the five and a half point numbers, so I won't

780
00:33:11,200 --> 00:33:13,160
Speaker 2: go near it. But if I had to lay it,

781
00:33:13,200 --> 00:33:14,320
Speaker 2: I would lay it with Vegas.

782
00:33:15,560 --> 00:33:17,560
Speaker 1: Yeah. I don't have a great feel for it, to

783
00:33:17,680 --> 00:33:20,640
Speaker 1: be fair, I don't. I think I agree with the over,

784
00:33:20,880 --> 00:33:23,480
Speaker 1: but I don't love it. Meanwhile, the consensus spread is

785
00:33:23,520 --> 00:33:26,719
Speaker 1: down to four, which is interesting. I think if I

786
00:33:26,840 --> 00:33:28,640
Speaker 1: had to go on one side. I might go with

787
00:33:28,680 --> 00:33:30,560
Speaker 1: the Broncos just to cover, you know, do like a

788
00:33:30,600 --> 00:33:32,800
Speaker 1: backdoor cover, because that's all I mean. Right, if the

789
00:33:32,880 --> 00:33:34,720
Speaker 1: Raiders get up ahead, you know, Drew Locks is gonna

790
00:33:34,720 --> 00:33:36,640
Speaker 1: go absolutely insane and just start throwing not.

791
00:33:36,800 --> 00:33:38,880
Speaker 2: I think it's a thirty twenty seven type of game,

792
00:33:39,040 --> 00:33:42,160
Speaker 2: one way or the other. So I think there's fifty.

793
00:33:42,200 --> 00:33:44,080
Speaker 2: I think it gets through fifty pretty easily. So that's

794
00:33:44,080 --> 00:33:45,960
Speaker 2: all I prefer the over in this game. Then the side.

795
00:33:46,360 --> 00:33:49,360
Speaker 1: All right, let's get really gross and talk about where

796
00:33:49,360 --> 00:33:51,080
Speaker 1: we are. So here's what I'm gonna do. We know

797
00:33:51,160 --> 00:33:53,440
Speaker 1: we're taking the Bucks laying four and a half to

798
00:33:53,640 --> 00:33:57,120
Speaker 1: the Panthers. Yeah, I'm going to add in the Bengals

799
00:33:57,800 --> 00:34:00,320
Speaker 1: getting six and a half from Pittsburgh because that was

800
00:34:00,400 --> 00:34:02,920
Speaker 1: like the least yuck I could get to and we

801
00:34:02,920 --> 00:34:04,680
Speaker 1: were on the right side. Okay, hold on, let me

802
00:34:04,720 --> 00:34:09,440
Speaker 1: just ride it in. Okay. So these are the other games, Matt,

803
00:34:09,440 --> 00:34:11,200
Speaker 1: and you can let me know if I've missed one.

804
00:34:11,239 --> 00:34:14,640
Speaker 1: These were the other games where we weren't, like essentially

805
00:34:14,680 --> 00:34:17,760
Speaker 1: on different sides, which means we'd have to pick three

806
00:34:17,920 --> 00:34:21,640
Speaker 1: of these gross four games. The Cardinals laying two and

807
00:34:21,680 --> 00:34:24,200
Speaker 1: a half to the Bills, the Rams laying one and

808
00:34:24,200 --> 00:34:26,680
Speaker 1: a half to the Seahawks, the Bears getting two and

809
00:34:26,719 --> 00:34:29,399
Speaker 1: a half from the Vikings, and the Giants getting three

810
00:34:29,440 --> 00:34:30,440
Speaker 1: and a half from the Eagles.

811
00:34:31,840 --> 00:34:33,440
Speaker 2: Rams Bears, Giants.

812
00:34:33,760 --> 00:34:37,640
Speaker 1: Rams Bears, Giants. I am okay with that, actually, and

813
00:34:38,160 --> 00:34:41,160
Speaker 1: if I am going to be as transparent as possible,

814
00:34:41,480 --> 00:34:44,960
Speaker 1: all three of those were in my list of h

815
00:34:45,520 --> 00:34:47,719
Speaker 1: I can live with this. That's where they were. They

816
00:34:47,719 --> 00:34:50,440
Speaker 1: were all in my list. The Rams laying one and

817
00:34:50,480 --> 00:34:52,400
Speaker 1: a half to the Seahawks, the Bears getting two and

818
00:34:52,440 --> 00:34:54,160
Speaker 1: a half points from the Vikings, and the Giants getting

819
00:34:54,160 --> 00:34:55,920
Speaker 1: three and a half points from the Eagles. I like

820
00:34:55,960 --> 00:34:57,600
Speaker 1: the Giants with the hook. I think the Bears are

821
00:34:57,600 --> 00:34:58,920
Speaker 1: gonna win out right, and I think the Rams are

822
00:34:58,920 --> 00:35:01,400
Speaker 1: gonna win out right. So that's where we are. I

823
00:35:01,840 --> 00:35:03,800
Speaker 1: feel pretty gross about it, which means it's probably a

824
00:35:03,840 --> 00:35:04,640
Speaker 1: five and oh week.

825
00:35:04,840 --> 00:35:07,719
Speaker 2: But I like points. I mean, at this point in

826
00:35:07,719 --> 00:35:10,360
Speaker 2: the year, I start to like points because the public

827
00:35:10,400 --> 00:35:13,160
Speaker 2: starts getting all wacky with favorites of the dark past

828
00:35:13,880 --> 00:35:16,240
Speaker 2: lay in points and I'll do it. I like taking points,

829
00:35:16,360 --> 00:35:20,280
Speaker 2: but week ten on I like taking short favorites and points.

830
00:35:20,360 --> 00:35:22,320
Speaker 1: Yep, all right, well, those of you who are listening

831
00:35:22,320 --> 00:35:25,680
Speaker 1: can understand that I am taking the Texans getting three

832
00:35:25,680 --> 00:35:27,960
Speaker 1: and at myself, I haven't already bet this the Texans

833
00:35:27,960 --> 00:35:30,680
Speaker 1: getting three and a half and the forty nine ers

834
00:35:30,680 --> 00:35:33,480
Speaker 1: getting nine and a half. So that is how gross

835
00:35:33,680 --> 00:35:36,840
Speaker 1: it's going to be right now for this weekend. Okay,

836
00:35:37,080 --> 00:35:39,000
Speaker 1: good enough, good enough for me. Everybody, make sure you

837
00:35:39,040 --> 00:35:41,960
Speaker 1: are listening to the Daily Juice podcast, which is Matt's

838
00:35:42,080 --> 00:35:46,000
Speaker 1: daily podcast. It is, I dare say it the greatest

839
00:35:46,040 --> 00:35:48,080
Speaker 1: podcast in the world. I really love it. It's every day,

840
00:35:48,120 --> 00:35:50,479
Speaker 1: It's fantastic. Matt does a great job breaking down pretty

841
00:35:50,560 --> 00:35:54,120
Speaker 1: much every single sport. Again Betting Pros like comp slash chat,

842
00:35:54,200 --> 00:35:57,400
Speaker 1: join our discord channel and there are our workspace or

843
00:35:57,440 --> 00:35:59,239
Speaker 1: whatever you call it at this point, and again you

844
00:35:59,239 --> 00:36:02,320
Speaker 1: can win a sign a J Brown Titan's helmet hopefully

845
00:36:02,760 --> 00:36:04,960
Speaker 1: is a big game tonight because I need him. And

846
00:36:05,160 --> 00:36:08,680
Speaker 1: also don't forget that you can check out our cheat

847
00:36:08,760 --> 00:36:10,520
Speaker 1: sheet creators what we call it?

848
00:36:10,520 --> 00:36:12,320
Speaker 2: What do we call our pret cheat sheet.

849
00:36:12,280 --> 00:36:15,400
Speaker 1: Prop bet cheat sheet, I'm still learning the name over

850
00:36:15,560 --> 00:36:20,120
Speaker 1: at Bettingpros dot com slash props. And we'll be back

851
00:36:20,200 --> 00:36:22,680
Speaker 1: next week bringing down the week eleven straight, hopefully after

852
00:36:22,680 --> 00:36:24,160
Speaker 1: a big week. We'll talk to you then