Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us
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Speaker 2: One week to a shutdown and no clear path to
Speaker 2: avoid one. Welcome to the fastest show in politics. As
Speaker 2: most lawmakers head home for the weekend without a deal
Speaker 2: on spending, never mind funding for Israel or Ukraine, though
Speaker 2: the Speaker of the House is he will drop a
Speaker 2: stopgap bill tomorrow, We're joined ahead to talk about it
Speaker 2: by congress Woman Victoria Sparts, the Republican from Indiana, grew
Speaker 2: up in Ukraine and will bring her unique view to
Speaker 2: the conversation. In just a moment. Swing state voters more
Speaker 2: concerned about the border than threats from abroad that according
Speaker 2: to new polling from Bloomberg and Morning Consult. Will cover
Speaker 2: all these stories with our signature panel Bloomberg Politics contributors
Speaker 2: Gdi Shanzeo and Rick Davis. Welcome to the Friday edition
Speaker 2: of Bloomberg Sound On. We do have a bit of
Speaker 2: news here seven days out the government set to shut
Speaker 2: down a week from today, well at midnight at least,
Speaker 2: and it appears Republican leadership in the House is set
Speaker 2: to drop a continuing resolution tomorrow. We're gonna get actually
Speaker 2: a real look at what this stopgap measure includes, of course,
Speaker 2: aimed at avoiding a government shut down. I asked the
Speaker 2: one person who got it right last time, Sarah Chamberlain,
Speaker 2: president CEO of the Republican Main Street Partnership, about whether
Speaker 2: the government would shut down in one week. Here's what
Speaker 2: she said. Remembering Sarah was the only person who told
Speaker 2: us the government would not shut down last time, when
Speaker 2: that was the conventional wisdom. Here she is from Balance
Speaker 2: of Power on Bloomberg TV.
Speaker 3: I think in the very last moment, we don't shut down,
Speaker 3: but it's gonna I'm gonna sweat it more. Last time,
Speaker 3: I was one hundred percent confident from the beginning. This time,
Speaker 3: i'm that, to be honest with then, I knew Kevin
Speaker 3: much better than I know the current speaking so I
Speaker 3: had a lot of faith that Kevin would cut the deals.
Speaker 3: I don't know the current speaker at all, to be honest,
Speaker 3: but the republic Community Partnership members are really pushing him
Speaker 3: because we're the ones that live in the bubble. We're
Speaker 3: the ones that will lose. We will lose, the majority
Speaker 3: of the members lose, and they do not want government
Speaker 3: shut down because all the polling shows it will be
Speaker 3: blamed on the Republicans.
Speaker 2: We'll see one week from today, maybe we'll be playing
Speaker 2: that tape back. And that's where we begin our conversation
Speaker 2: with the congresswoman from Indiana, Victorias Sparks, Republican, who has
Speaker 2: already announced her intention not to run for reelection and
Speaker 2: can speak freely. Congressman, Congressman, and I hope that's the case.
Speaker 2: Welcome back to Bloomberg. I wonder if you've had a
Speaker 2: chance to see this continuing resolution that we expect to
Speaker 2: drop tomorrow and what's in it.
Speaker 4: Well, I think we still have a kind of a discussion,
Speaker 4: but I all of us spoke freely, regardless if I
Speaker 4: run or not, you know, because I truly believe we
Speaker 4: need to do it. So I'll tell you one saying,
Speaker 4: I think the discussions we have and I'll be honest
Speaker 4: with you, no one is talking about shut it down
Speaker 4: the government.
Speaker 5: We are talking about it.
Speaker 4: How can we really force some appropriate processes and how
Speaker 4: we want to make sure that we don't have a
Speaker 4: last second, you know, omnibus from the Senate before Christmas.
Speaker 4: It's been done now for years, which it does the
Speaker 4: service to the people, and there is a way for
Speaker 4: us to come to find consensus on border security and
Speaker 4: have a debt commission. So maybe we have a better
Speaker 4: plan next year how to deal with crushing debt and inflation.
Speaker 4: I think it will be very hard, since we do
Speaker 4: have a position on that, you know, from the Democrats
Speaker 4: and the Senate, for us to do some more heavy lifting.
Speaker 4: So it probably will be much easier. You know, it's
Speaker 4: much more simple resolution where it's going to be funding.
Speaker 4: I hope to more like mid January or we go
Speaker 4: over the holidays, so there is no pressure to do
Speaker 4: bad bills. Also, it hits one percent cut that was
Speaker 4: agreed and also maybe add an Israel with some offsets.
Speaker 5: I think that is kind of discussions we have.
Speaker 2: Okay, got it. Our reporting says that the Speaker is
Speaker 2: looking at this idea of a laddered cr that would
Speaker 2: not be a whole bunch of deadlines, but in fact
Speaker 2: two one group of appropriations bills expiring in January, the
Speaker 2: other in February. Does that sound like a plan to you?
Speaker 5: Yeah, listen, it's an option. You know.
Speaker 4: It makes it a little bit complicated for us to
Speaker 4: explain what it is, and it will make them for
Speaker 4: the Senate much you know, they will try to jam something,
Speaker 4: you know, probably with mid December, because that's the goal
Speaker 4: of the Senate to jam something to us and right
Speaker 4: before Christmas to force everyone to vote for omnibus. So
Speaker 4: I think that's an option if we can try to
Speaker 4: do a two tier at CR. One of them will
Speaker 4: go to mid January and there are some appropriation we're
Speaker 4: already passed, and we're really in the Senate pass some too,
Speaker 4: but force us to go into conference and actually have
Speaker 4: a true appropriation process where we try to agree, not
Speaker 4: going through omnibus. So that's I think the intent, you know,
Speaker 4: and I think more Republicans are inclined to have this
Speaker 4: two tier CR. You know, we just need to decide
Speaker 4: with timing. So we need to make sure that they're
Speaker 4: not going to cent us something last second before everyone leaves,
Speaker 4: and there's going to be something we don't want. So unfortunately,
Speaker 4: too much politics, but we'll see what majority of Republicans.
Speaker 4: I am open to do either one as long as
Speaker 4: we're not doing something before Christmas?
Speaker 2: Do you need to see cuts to vote?
Speaker 6: Yes?
Speaker 4: Listen, if we actually go through January fifteenth or nineteen,
Speaker 4: so we actual already will have at least, you know,
Speaker 4: modest one percent cut, which is better than Carress done
Speaker 4: for years now. So because we're already, you know, and
Speaker 4: during death Sealing negotiation, we had a lot of people
Speaker 4: call it Massy cut because courssmen messy trying to be realistic,
Speaker 4: because with inflation, even have one percent cut, it's already
Speaker 4: actually a huge cut, right considering now inflation unfortunately, you know,
Speaker 4: So I think that will actually will do it cut.
Speaker 4: You know, I think airing more stuff maybe easier. Al
Speaker 4: with offsets, I think it will be very, very difficult.
Speaker 4: Some of my people do want to have border security.
Speaker 4: I personally beg you know, proponent of debt commission, but
Speaker 4: it might have to be dealt a little bit later
Speaker 4: this year.
Speaker 2: I want to ask you about that debt commission, and
Speaker 2: I'm glad that you brought that up. You actually threatened
Speaker 2: to resign from Congress a little over a month ago
Speaker 2: during the last funding debate. Specifically, you said if a
Speaker 2: debt commission was not passed this year, you said in
Speaker 2: a statement. Quote, there is a limitation to human capacity.
Speaker 2: Congress Woman, you said, if Congress does not pass a
Speaker 2: debt commission this year to move the needle on the
Speaker 2: crushing national debt and inflation at least at the next
Speaker 2: debt ceiling increase at the end of twenty twenty four,
Speaker 2: I will not continue sacrificing my children for this circus
Speaker 2: with a complete absence of leadership, vision, and spine. You're right,
Speaker 2: I cannot save this Republic alone. There's still no debt commission, Congresswoman,
Speaker 2: will you resign still if one is not created?
Speaker 4: Litten, we got much more progress, and it took me
Speaker 4: a while to move Kevin mccarthson in the right direction.
Speaker 4: Speak at Johnson and he's wear an in speech. He
Speaker 4: actually brought this issue. So I'm glad to hear that
Speaker 4: he's understand to see this policy. But we've just been
Speaker 4: working on the Senate and since he was seen, we
Speaker 4: actually just had Senator Romian Mansied and some other Democrat
Speaker 4: and Republicans Senator's introducing it, you know, yeah, just yesterday,
Speaker 4: So the day before yesterday they introduced it. So I
Speaker 4: think it's important and we see some movement in the
Speaker 4: Senate on a bipartiesan basis to be serious and have
Speaker 4: a genuine conversation, so we'll, you know, we all see
Speaker 4: what is going to happen. I think it's a you know,
Speaker 4: border security and crushing debt. It's two major national securities issues.
Speaker 4: We've been neglected for a very long time. But I
Speaker 4: think they become serious enough. If we don't start doing something,
Speaker 4: then just continue doing politics, because people don't realize whatever
Speaker 4: we govern right now, in the next few months, the
Speaker 4: rest of the year, everyone will be doing politics and
Speaker 4: doing election campaigns and fundraising, so nothing serious is going
Speaker 4: to be happening legislatively. Let's just be honest. So we
Speaker 4: have to become adults in the room and do something
Speaker 4: in governing, not do politics and campaigning.
Speaker 5: The right next day after the election. It's irresponsible.
Speaker 2: You sound as passionate as ever, conversoone, are you sure
Speaker 2: you want to resign?
Speaker 5: Well, listen, I don't know. I'm going to listen, I said.
Speaker 4: Because I told Kevin, if he's not going to deliver
Speaker 4: a serious issue, I said, I'm going to assess the situation.
Speaker 5: But I don't give up easily. I'm working very.
Speaker 4: Hard, and I think we're getting Senate to attraction too,
Speaker 4: so I listened had I had a lot of fights.
Speaker 4: Kevin was a nice guy, but he's definitely didn't like
Speaker 4: to govern. Mike Johnson is much better speaker on governing.
Speaker 4: He truly wants to deliver for the people on issues.
Speaker 4: It shouldn't be partisan. What is security in debt shouldn't
Speaker 4: be partisan issues? And I'm glad you know, I've been
Speaker 4: working extremely hard with the Senate, reaching out to all
Speaker 4: of the sides of the aisle myself, and I'm glad
Speaker 4: to see that Senate finalist that movement a little bit.
Speaker 2: We should note to our viewers and listeners that you
Speaker 2: voted against Austin Speaker McCarthy.
Speaker 7: Uh.
Speaker 2: Just for what it's worth, Congresso, when I'd like to
Speaker 2: ask you about Ukraine, you of course grew up in
Speaker 2: Ukraine and have a unique view on this funding debate.
Speaker 2: You've made it clear that you support funding the war effort,
Speaker 2: but you also have suggested that you want to see
Speaker 2: accountability on how that money is spent. What would it
Speaker 2: look like. How would that accountability or audit be strong
Speaker 2: enough to satisfy you?
Speaker 4: Well, I think first we need accountability, but also you
Speaker 4: know accountability. A lot of money actuallys that supposedly airmark
Speaker 4: for Ukraine, they don't even go to Ukraine, they go
Speaker 4: to a lot of association causes's become a slash fund,
Speaker 4: which kind of does the service to this appense. But
Speaker 4: also to make sure that we know what the strategy
Speaker 4: is because President Biden tells one things on TV, but
Speaker 4: his action has been slow working the aid and really
Speaker 4: been very weak, you know so and you only can
Speaker 4: you know, deal with aggresses like put In with weapons
Speaker 4: and usual only ten to twenty percent of money goes
Speaker 4: directly to weapons. The rest goes to some other things,
Speaker 4: and you cannot win the war. So he needs to
Speaker 4: be honest. What is his strategy and how the strategy
Speaker 4: and actions could be aligned together. And I think these
Speaker 4: are conversations we need to ask because we have a
Speaker 4: lot of issues. We have to deal with a lot
Speaker 4: of domestic issues, and we want to be strong abroad
Speaker 4: because those countries like Russia, China or Iran causing a
Speaker 4: lot of headaches and they're all after us. But we
Speaker 4: need to have strengths and strategy when we deal with
Speaker 4: stuff like that. And I think that's going to be
Speaker 4: a discussion and President ows to Countress and American people
Speaker 4: to explain what's happening and also to be more transparent
Speaker 4: and why it is in our national interest, because ultimately
Speaker 4: we need to understand that all of these issues are
Speaker 4: going to be affecting us and they're destabilizing the whole world.
Speaker 5: And what's happening in Israel is not by accident.
Speaker 2: Can Ukraine win this war?
Speaker 4: Ukrainian people, you know, will eventually win this war because
Speaker 4: you know, the millions of life destroyed.
Speaker 5: It's a matter for them how many lives it will take,
Speaker 5: you know, because millions of life has already destroyed, hundred
Speaker 5: thousands of people already killed, family is destroyed. I mean,
Speaker 5: countriverts to so much suffering. Now you have a very
Speaker 5: difficult situation to reconcile.
Speaker 4: And unfortunately we're not was decisive before the war, in
Speaker 4: the first year of the war, because in Russia now
Speaker 4: is being destabilized and they're very good at hybrid warfare.
Speaker 4: They're destabilizing Europe, meddle easy mingling in Africa, making deal
Speaker 4: with the Rinds in China, and you know, career, I
Speaker 4: mean they you know, listen, don't underestimate you know, the
Speaker 4: FORMAKGB apparatus. How they're good at buying and you know, destabilizing.
Speaker 4: I mean they try to destabilize us here too, And
Speaker 4: I think the social media is becoming even you know,
Speaker 4: and more and more they have capabilities on that. And
Speaker 4: so I think it's important for us to you know,
Speaker 4: have peace through strength, to have strong strategy, but also
Speaker 4: have an actions because we need to have allies.
Speaker 5: We need to.
Speaker 4: Support our allies around the world, but we also need
Speaker 4: to make sure that we're tough with aggressors, and we
Speaker 4: also need to make sure we deal with domestic issues first,
Speaker 4: because if we're not strong internally, it only benefit our adversaries.
Speaker 6: Well.
Speaker 2: Bloomberg is reporting that advocates of aid to Ukraine are
Speaker 2: dangling a lot of dollars in front of lawmakers based
Speaker 2: on military contractors and other firms that are in their states.
Speaker 2: If you look at the potential windfall for companies like
Speaker 2: General Dynamics and raytheon now RTX, it might be difficult
Speaker 2: for lawmakers to say no to this, knowing that a
Speaker 2: lot of this money is going to stay here in
Speaker 2: the US. Congresswoman, will Ukraine aid pass?
Speaker 8: Well?
Speaker 4: Listen, I think you know and truly we actually you know,
Speaker 4: even we help, even though you know, the United States
Speaker 4: will force Ukraine to give new clep appens and have
Speaker 4: a piece of papor so but but regardless what it is,
Speaker 4: I actually prefer that would have done it through land lease,
Speaker 4: where we actually not just give them money, but Ukrainean
Speaker 4: governments will owe as the money back.
Speaker 5: That would have been my preferred way to do it.
Speaker 4: And also we need to you know, so American people
Speaker 4: what a benefit it is and how it is, you know,
Speaker 4: how important for Ukrainians to win that. There are a
Speaker 4: lot of implications on that, so I don't think that's
Speaker 4: how people look at that. But I think on Ukrainian aid, unfortunately,
Speaker 4: we'll have to leveragh some domestic issues, and that's a
Speaker 4: discussion Republicans have. We want to have tiden border security legislatively,
Speaker 4: because if we don't protect our border, and now what's
Speaker 4: happening with terrorism on the rise in the Middle East,
Speaker 4: it's become a serious issue. We will have a huge
Speaker 4: problem internally. So I think a lot of Republicans want
Speaker 4: bet overside more clear strategy, but also have border security
Speaker 4: in the return you know, of any foreign aid, in
Speaker 4: particularly Ukrainian aid.
Speaker 2: Congress Woman is good to have you and I appreciate
Speaker 2: your time today. Congress Woman Victoria's sparks the Republican from Indiana,
Speaker 2: giving us a little bit of a sense about what
Speaker 2: we might see tomorrow when this continuing resolution is dropped
Speaker 2: by the Republican Speaker in the House of what might
Speaker 2: follow next week, we'll take a quick swing with our
Speaker 2: panel before a deeper dive ahead with Rick Davis and
Speaker 2: Genie Shanzano, Bloomberg Politics contributors. Genie, the lattered CR we
Speaker 2: were told was a non starter for Democrats in the
Speaker 2: House and the Senate. Is this just another way the time?
Speaker 9: I think it is, in the end going to be.
Speaker 9: We also heard that from some Republicans who are terribly
Speaker 9: concerned about this approach as well. The limited as we
Speaker 9: are in time, the smart thing to do is a
Speaker 9: clean CR. To waste time doing this walks us ever
Speaker 9: closer to what you were just talking about, which is
Speaker 9: a potential government shutdown that it is in everybody's interest
Speaker 9: to avoid. So I do think this is a problematic strategy.
Speaker 9: But when the speaker, the new Speaker, feels like he
Speaker 9: has no choice but to pursue At this point, we'll.
Speaker 2: Have more time for this Rick, But do you see
Speaker 2: a shutdown on the cards in one week?
Speaker 6: Yeah?
Speaker 2: Very well, could be.
Speaker 10: I mean it's very unusual to not have any real
Speaker 10: clear indications from the Speaker as to what form and
Speaker 10: substance the cr is going to take very hard to
Speaker 10: whip votes. I'm not getting any indication, and he's aggressively
Speaker 10: being going out and whipping boats for this CR.
Speaker 6: Yet.
Speaker 2: We're going to get into this in more depth with
Speaker 2: our political panel coming up, along with new polling Day
Speaker 2: from Bloomberg and Morning Consults. As we get back to
Speaker 2: this issue of the border the congresswoman was talking about
Speaker 2: for swing state voters, that's more important than threats from abroad.
Speaker 2: We'll get into that straight ahead. On the Fastest Show
Speaker 2: in Politics, This is Bloomberg.
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Speaker 2: The Fastest Show in Politics. As we skid into a
Speaker 2: weekend here without a plan in sight on avoiding a
Speaker 2: government shutdown just one week away. Though, as we were
Speaker 2: just talking about, I'm glad you joined us here on
Speaker 2: the radio, on the satellite, and on YouTube. We are
Speaker 2: going to see a bill tomorrow, Speaker Johnson said, to
Speaker 2: unveil his continuing resolution, will find out if it's laddered
Speaker 2: or not. And that is the idea here. Some of
Speaker 2: the appropriations would expire in January, others in February, and
Speaker 2: that would not avoid a one percent cut. As we
Speaker 2: discussed a little while ago with Congresswoman's sparts, I'm Joe
Speaker 2: Matthew and Washington, and we've got our panel together, Rick
Speaker 2: Davis and Genie Shanzano helping us understand what's going on here.
Speaker 2: The debate surrounding Ukraine funding, which is something that the
Speaker 2: congresswoman supports, a native of Ukraine, born and raised in
Speaker 2: Ukraine before moving to this country and becoming a lawmaker.
Speaker 2: That tied with border funding, and we're going to talk
Speaker 2: quite a bit about that now we've got new pulling
Speaker 2: data from Bloomberg on the border. There is a non
Speaker 2: starter for Democrats, at least for now. Remember Chuck Schumer
Speaker 2: just a couple of days ago on the Senate floor,
Speaker 2: calls it a poison pill.
Speaker 11: A group of Senate Republicans released a proposal for border
Speaker 11: security that they want in exchange for Ukraine funding, and
Speaker 11: they know full well what they came up with is
Speaker 11: a total non starter. Instead of puting together common sense
Speaker 11: border policies that can pass in divided government, Senate Republicans
Speaker 11: basically copy and paste did large chunks of the House
Speaker 11: House's radical HR two bill.
Speaker 2: And it's looking like Ukraine funding will not be part
Speaker 2: of a continuing resolution. This is going to take a minute.
Speaker 2: With no agreement between the two parties, or apparently the
Speaker 2: two chambers, let's bring the panel in on this, Rick Davis,
Speaker 2: We've got numbers from Bloomberg and Morning Consul today, Swing
Speaker 2: state voters book border before Mideast and Ukraine conflicts. How
Speaker 2: does that inform for you the debate that we're about
Speaker 2: to hear combining the border in Ukraine.
Speaker 10: Yeah, it was only about three weeks ago that we
Speaker 10: were talking about the border funding being actually a drag
Speaker 10: on some of this supplemental spending. But if I'm a
Speaker 10: Democrat and I'm looking at twenty twenty four and the
Speaker 10: kind of numbers we've seen in the Bloomberg pole out
Speaker 10: today that I'm going to jump on board the funding
Speaker 10: for border in a minute, in no time at all,
Speaker 10: because if they don't, if they're not seen as being productive,
Speaker 10: if they're not seen as being protective, if they don't
Speaker 10: look like they are trying to ensure border integrity for
Speaker 10: the United States, they're going to get punished in twenty
Speaker 10: twenty four. Because this is an issue that has only
Speaker 10: gotten stronger as more people come across the border.
Speaker 2: The numbers are hard to deny. Here, Genie, about three
Speaker 2: times as many voters said immigration is their top issue
Speaker 2: in the twenty four presidential contest as those who said
Speaker 2: the same about the Israel Hamas war. Sixty eight percent
Speaker 2: of respondents in the Bloomberg Morning Console poll, and we
Speaker 2: had a sample of almost five thousand people, so they
Speaker 2: approve of funding for border protection a larger share than
Speaker 2: the sixty one percent who back a to Israel and
Speaker 2: the fifty eight percent who favor aid to Ukraine. You
Speaker 2: can see the chart here if you're with us watching
Speaker 2: on YouTube. So I could ask you this in a
Speaker 2: couple of different ways. Jeanie, do you agree with Rick
Speaker 2: for starters, Democrats need to get on board or is
Speaker 2: it more nuanced than that? Do Democrats need to start
Speaker 2: delineating between the so called border and immigration policy, because
Speaker 2: they're two very different things.
Speaker 9: You know, if you look at the package that the
Speaker 9: President put forward and has supported, it does have funding
Speaker 9: in there for the border, for Taiwan, for Israel, and
Speaker 9: for Ukraine. So you know they did that. One hundred
Speaker 9: and six billion does include that. And I have long
Speaker 9: said and this pole the numbers are very big. To
Speaker 9: your point, seven out of ten Americans in this poll
Speaker 9: registered voters in these swing states importantly supporting or approving
Speaker 9: funding for border protection. That is no surprise. Look at
Speaker 9: the results on Tuesday. Democrats did well on the issue
Speaker 9: of abortion. But you look at my home state of
Speaker 9: New York and you see some bright spots for Republicans.
Speaker 9: The Suffolk County executive race, the biggest executive race or
Speaker 9: the biggest county in the country, Republicans won, and they
Speaker 9: won it on the back of border security immigration issues,
Speaker 9: and that is going to repeat itself across the country.
Speaker 9: Prime and security will always best foreign policy in the
Speaker 9: minds of voters. Unless we have boots on the ground
Speaker 9: so since we don't, it's always going to best that
Speaker 9: in the minds of voters and come in, you know,
Speaker 9: a close second to something like the economy. So this
Speaker 9: is no surprise the administration and Democrats have got to
Speaker 9: get a handle on it. People, this is their daily
Speaker 9: lives experience. In New York City, one hundred thousand people
Speaker 9: came into the city and the shelters are overwhelmed. That
Speaker 9: is just one city, that's where people are living. They
Speaker 9: don't feel like we have the ability to sustain that
Speaker 9: without federal action on this issue that we've been waiting
Speaker 9: for decades to get federal action on. So yes, they
Speaker 9: should absolutely take this opportunity to fund the border with
Speaker 9: Israel and with Ukraine and Taiwan.
Speaker 2: Let's look at these states here. It's Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan,
Speaker 2: North Carolina, and Wisconsin. This is why it's more important, frankly,
Speaker 2: than a national poll. So we can really zero in
Speaker 2: here on the results. Rick Donald Trump leads Joe Biden
Speaker 2: forty seven percent to forty one percent across the seven
Speaker 2: states in this poll. Are we done with this conventional
Speaker 2: wisdom that Trump is the one man Biden can.
Speaker 10: Beat Yeah, I think that this kind of blows that
Speaker 10: out of the water. Bloomberg pole of a month ago
Speaker 10: actually had Trump at forty seven also, but it had
Speaker 10: Biden at forty three. So it's actually a couple points
Speaker 10: down for Biden. So Democrats have to wake up and
Speaker 10: realize they're in a fight. Where's the Biden campaign? What
Speaker 10: ads are they running right now? Positive ads about Joe Biden?
Speaker 10: I mean this idea that they were somehow enthusiastic about
Speaker 10: Donald Trump being there, not the Republican nominee against them
Speaker 10: is is?
Speaker 2: Is juvenile?
Speaker 10: I mean, it doesn't actually portend a good outcome for
Speaker 10: Biden based on these polls. And so I'm actually amazed
Speaker 10: that there's not more of a fight right now going
Speaker 10: on with the Biden campaign. You know, I was told
Speaker 10: just the other day they're not even polling, So why
Speaker 10: would they even know if not for Bloomberg, you know
Speaker 10: that they're in a they're in a horse race.
Speaker 2: Well, we're doing what we can here, Genie, are you
Speaker 2: growing worried about numbers like this? You remember we've been
Speaker 2: hearing this for months and months. Just don't you know,
Speaker 2: we don't want Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley because they
Speaker 2: might win. We want to rematch with Donald Trump. Is
Speaker 2: that flawed thinking?
Speaker 9: You know, I don't think so, and I'm going to
Speaker 9: surprisingly take exception ad impact just came out the Biden
Speaker 9: campaign has spent thirty nine million dollars to day on
Speaker 9: advertising for twenty four That is much more than the
Speaker 9: two previous presidents. So they are out there talking, they
Speaker 9: are out there spending. He was just in Illinois yesterday.
Speaker 9: More importantly, we all talk all the time about the
Speaker 9: fact that you can't combine these states. Let's not look
Speaker 9: at this forty seven percent number. Let's look at these
Speaker 9: states individually. The numbers are better for Trump than Democrats
Speaker 9: would like. But it is in five of the seven
Speaker 9: states that they are within a margin of error.
Speaker 2: So yeah, hide in Michigan, Jeanie, it's to your point
Speaker 2: that is correct. Well, well, well, I.
Speaker 9: Would even say, yeah, tied, not only in Michigan, five
Speaker 9: states when you look at the margin of error, so
Speaker 9: you know, to say Trump is ahead in in six
Speaker 9: of those states is a misnomer because in five of
Speaker 9: those states that they are within a margin of error.
Speaker 9: The margin of eras and polls matter when we don't
Speaker 9: tell people that they expect that these numbers are solid,
Speaker 9: and they are not. They are a probability, and they
Speaker 9: are within a margin. That said, I am the biggest
Speaker 9: skeptic on some of this stuff and very pessimistic. The
Speaker 9: campaign has got to focus on the economy as much
Speaker 9: as possible, but more importantly on the messenger. People are
Speaker 9: terribly concerned about Joe Biden's age. They have got to
Speaker 9: do what they can on that, and I don't think
Speaker 9: we can separate out those two. And by the way,
Speaker 9: I would take Biden over Trump with ninety four indictments
Speaker 9: and facing criminal charges over the next year any day
Speaker 9: of the week, even though he does have an age
Speaker 9: issue that he's got to contend with and inflation as well.
Speaker 2: I'm sure he would. Jeanie, that would have been news
Speaker 2: if you said differently. And look, I appreciate the perspective
Speaker 2: that you bring here. That's why you're both with us,
Speaker 2: but this is not the layup clearly that a lot
Speaker 2: of people have been making it out to be. To
Speaker 2: Rick Davis's point, great conversation on the poll, and you
Speaker 2: can read a lot more about it on the terminal,
Speaker 2: And of course at Bloomberg we're doing this every month
Speaker 2: with Morning consult next hour. In fact, we're gonna have
Speaker 2: the deep dive on the numbers with Eli Yoakley for
Speaker 2: Morning Consults. So I hope you be with us at
Speaker 2: two o'clock Washington time for that.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us
Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the
Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen on
Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts.
Speaker 2: And so they will finally meet at last, President Biden.
Speaker 2: President She next week, as the headline screams on the terminal,
Speaker 2: Biden She set to meet November fifteen and the sidelines
Speaker 2: of the Apex Summit. We knew that was a possibility,
Speaker 2: but the confirmation here is important. God knows they have
Speaker 2: been winding up to this one for a while. Let's
Speaker 2: go all the way back to June. Remember that little
Speaker 2: balloon that was floating over Montana. They were supposed to
Speaker 2: meet around that time as well, and that certainly delayed things.
Speaker 2: This was Joe Biden on the twenty second of June.
Speaker 12: We had an incident that caused some confusion, you might say, President,
Speaker 12: but the Secretary of Blincoln had a great trip to China.
Speaker 12: I expect to be meeting with President She sometime in
Speaker 12: the future a near term, and I don't think it's
Speaker 12: had any real consequence.
Speaker 2: We'll see about that. It's been a challenged relationship, as
Speaker 2: we've discussed in great detail here on sound On and
Speaker 2: across the platform here on Bloomberg. Think about what's happening
Speaker 2: with the chips, with Nvidia, with Apple. Never mind the
Speaker 2: drills that we've been seeing in the South China Sea,
Speaker 2: the building of military installations around the global South, great
Speaker 2: concern here in Washington about the way forward with China.
Speaker 2: I haven't even mentioned Taiwan. Let's reassemble the panel for
Speaker 2: their thoughts on this and the stakes ahead for this meeting.
Speaker 2: Jeannie Schanzano and Rick Davis are with us a Bloomberg Pom'
Speaker 2: six contributors. Rick November fifteen. I suspect the administration will
Speaker 2: keep expectations as low as possible. Is this an ice
Speaker 2: breaker at this point? Just a chance to be in
Speaker 2: the same rum or? Can they get something done? Yeah,
Speaker 2: there's no.
Speaker 10: Question that they need to break the ice. I mean,
Speaker 10: relations could not be more poor than they are today.
Speaker 10: I mean most pundents would argue that we're in a
Speaker 10: full fledged cold war with China, and so this may
Speaker 10: be the first time that these two leaders get together
Speaker 10: under those kinds of circumstances. And I would say that
Speaker 10: I think the Biden administration's expectations are rightfully low. I mean,
Speaker 10: it's pretty bad when you say one of the top
Speaker 10: things you want to get out of it is the
Speaker 10: ability to communicate. Nah, I don't get that. I mean,
Speaker 10: like communicate what well? We want to have military conversations,
Speaker 10: that's it. I mean, what happened with the Wigers? Where
Speaker 10: are we with you know, military incursions in the South China? Say,
Speaker 10: I mean, there are a lot of issues to discuss,
Speaker 10: but just discussing as a priority seems a little weak.
Speaker 2: So the goal again, and this has been the goal
Speaker 2: in the past with these two Genie I suspect, is
Speaker 2: to get to another meeting. This is someone Joe Biden
Speaker 2: referred to as a dictator a couple of months ago.
Speaker 2: How much can they get along here?
Speaker 9: Yeah, it's going to be very interesting their first face
Speaker 9: to face and over a year and relations have been
Speaker 9: incredibly fraud and of course, due to your point, everything
Speaker 9: that happens surrounding the balloon, and the way the United
Speaker 9: States responded didn't help. And in the meantime, of course,
Speaker 9: we have what's happening in the Middle East, and we
Speaker 9: also have the continuation of what's happening in Europe, and
Speaker 9: you find the United States and China deeply divided and
Speaker 9: on both sides of those issues, and so there is
Speaker 9: so much for them to discuss. It is frightening that
Speaker 9: they have not done that in over a year. So
Speaker 9: commune medication is critically important, but arguably it's not enough.
Speaker 9: And I think the White House, you know, they are right,
Speaker 9: they're not going to expect anything big out of this
Speaker 9: policy wise, but hopefully they set up to your point
Speaker 9: for increased communication and not just with people below the
Speaker 9: two presidents, but with the leaders themselves, because we've seen
Speaker 9: a lot of back and forth, particularly people from the
Speaker 9: United States Blink and Yellen, others going over to China.
Speaker 9: We need to have these leaders meeting in the way
Speaker 9: they are next week, and we need to have them
Speaker 9: addressing some of these critical issues that are dividing us.
Speaker 9: As Yellen just said, these ties are critically important to
Speaker 9: us and to the world, and they need to be
Speaker 9: shored up in a substantive way going forward.
Speaker 2: Rick, the Genie's Point's been over a year. Last time
Speaker 2: these two sat down or spoke was at the G
Speaker 2: twenty Bali. That was November of twenty twenty two. What
Speaker 2: does it say to us that she is actually crossing
Speaker 2: the ocean to come here this time, because we know
Speaker 2: that he has hardly left the country since the beginning
Speaker 2: of COVID.
Speaker 10: Yeah, I would argue that it's probably a higher priority
Speaker 10: for him these days than it is for us. You know,
Speaker 10: failing economy, you know, all kinds of foreign policy issues,
Speaker 10: barking at his doors, you know, failed relationships with Russia
Speaker 10: over the Ukraine War. I mean, you know, he's got
Speaker 10: some issues, and I think it's probably important for him
Speaker 10: to try and turn the page on US relations because
Speaker 10: any kind of thing that would upset trade relations with
Speaker 10: US right now could have a really bad salutary effect
Speaker 10: on Chinese economy, which he does not need right now.
Speaker 2: Last time she was on US soil, Genie was twenty seventeen.
Speaker 2: Remember the setting mar A Lago. How does Joe Biden
Speaker 2: follow up on the venue here? We haven't been told
Speaker 2: where exactly they will meet other than the San Francisco
Speaker 2: Bay Area.
Speaker 9: Yeah, it will not match the opulence of mar A Lago.
Speaker 9: There will be no Donald Trump portrait in the room.
Speaker 9: You know, he's not going to Rehobeth Beach. But it'll
Speaker 9: be substantive. Nonetheless, San Francisco is a beautiful place to be.
Speaker 9: They can find a great venue. But I think the
Speaker 9: most important thing. I mean, it's stunning to think twenty
Speaker 9: seventeen before most people in the United States were even
Speaker 9: thinking about or ever heard about COVID, how much has
Speaker 9: happened in the world. And that's why this meeting is
Speaker 9: so important. And given how this was questionable whether this
Speaker 9: would in fact take place, the fact that we hear
Speaker 9: it will definitely take place is critically important.
Speaker 2: Mari A Lago or not.
Speaker 9: They'll have to, you know, go without Donald Trump being
Speaker 9: the DJ at mar A Lago for a little bit.
Speaker 2: Come on, that's not fun, Rick, I've only got thirty
Speaker 2: seconds here. But would you contrast mar A Lago and
Speaker 2: make this the most stark setting possible, maybe serve you know,
Speaker 2: Upway sandwiches or something.
Speaker 10: I don't think you have to downplay it that much,
Speaker 10: but just being in San Francisco is pretty stark.
Speaker 2: It's not like that city at the top of its game.
Speaker 2: You know, hopefully Jack, I was waiting for it.
Speaker 1: You're listening to The Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the
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Speaker 7: On Bloomberg Radio, the tune in alf Bloomberg dot Com, and.
Speaker 6: The Bloomberg Business app.
Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our
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Speaker 2: Welcome to our two of Bloomberg Sound Gone. Welcome to Friday.
Speaker 2: It was a short I had a three day work
Speaker 2: a grueling three day work week, and I don't know, Kaylee,
Speaker 2: I the shorter the weeks are, the longer they feel.
Speaker 2: I'll never understand it.
Speaker 5: I agree with that.
Speaker 13: But also every single week feels like a month or
Speaker 13: two in and of itself, So you know, time means
Speaker 13: nothing to me anymore.
Speaker 2: Well, especially when you're Kaylee Lines and your host four
Speaker 2: shows today and do all that while you're.
Speaker 14: But hey, welcome to Friday. It's good to see it.
Speaker 14: We have new polling data.
Speaker 2: Yes, pretty fresh too. This broke on balance of power
Speaker 2: less than what was a twelve something twenty.
Speaker 13: Four hours of twenty one hours ago.
Speaker 6: Thank you.
Speaker 2: And it is making a dent here because we spend
Speaker 2: a lot of time obsessing over national polls that frankly
Speaker 2: don't mean a lot. And boy, when you look at
Speaker 2: the swing states here, we did this a month ago.
Speaker 2: This is the update now, whether it's Arizona or Georgia,
Speaker 2: we're looking at some real struggles for Joe Biden, not
Speaker 2: only on the horse race, but specifically when it comes
Speaker 2: to issues they're arguing about. We talk about it every day.
Speaker 2: Funding for Israel and Ukraine, whether that would be tied
Speaker 2: with border funding. Swing state voters clear they care much
Speaker 2: more about the security at our border than they do
Speaker 2: anything going on the other side of the world.
Speaker 13: Yeah, that's what the poll show. Sixty eight percent of
Speaker 13: voters in these swing states would rather fund the border
Speaker 13: or are supportive of funding border security on the border
Speaker 13: with US in Mexico VERSUS, say, Israel or Ukraine. Funding.
Speaker 13: That is problematic potentially for a president who has really
Speaker 13: tried to be a America's back president, a foreign policy president,
Speaker 13: a globalist in a way that is quite opposite to
Speaker 13: the former president who is much more of an isolationist.
Speaker 13: In Donald Trump, and yet this poll also shows that
Speaker 13: they trust Trump more than Biden on a lot of
Speaker 13: these foreign policy issues.
Speaker 6: Yes.
Speaker 2: And in terms of the horse race, are we going
Speaker 2: to finally dispel of this idea that Donald Trump is
Speaker 2: the one man Joe Biden can definitely beat and not
Speaker 2: worry so much about who might come in second, Because
Speaker 2: when you put these together as an aggregate's forty seven
Speaker 2: forty one, a wider gap that Donald Trump holds over
Speaker 2: Joe Biden than even a month ago.
Speaker 13: Yes, and I think given the consistency here that it's
Speaker 13: showing up not just in this Bloomberg Morning Consult poll,
Speaker 13: but in a lot of other polling as well. I
Speaker 13: think that notion might have to be put to bed,
Speaker 13: at least for the time being, given what we are
Speaker 13: seeing consistently in voters' opinions.
Speaker 2: So we set the table here, let's bring in the experts.
Speaker 2: Eli Yoakley is with US political analyst at Morning Consult. Eli,
Speaker 2: welcome back here in Washington at the table with US
Speaker 2: Greg Reecordy, Bloomberg Politics reporter. It's great have you both here.
Speaker 2: Gregory was distilling the numbers on the terminal. Eli helped
Speaker 2: to generate them to begin with with our partners at
Speaker 2: morning consult and Eli, I'll start, I guess with that
Speaker 2: very same question. There was some argument about it last
Speaker 2: hour here on Bloomberg and Republicans and Democrats clearly don't
Speaker 2: agree on this. But Joe Biden can't claim that Donald
Speaker 2: Trump is the one person he can beat any longer?
Speaker 2: Can he?
Speaker 15: This race is neck and neck, probably probably not. I mean,
Speaker 15: even when you add in the independent candidate's like RFK
Speaker 15: Junior and Cornell West, the race is a head to
Speaker 15: head contest in most of these states. Clearly, Joe Biden
Speaker 15: is struggling with the kinds of voters who voted for
Speaker 15: him in twenty twenty. I mean, one of the most
Speaker 15: striking things in this survey is his twenty twenty voters
Speaker 15: are less likely to say they support him today than
Speaker 15: Donald Trump's are. He has a problem with his Democratic
Speaker 15: base that is weighing him down in all sorts of questions.
Speaker 13: Well, and Gregory, that might not be his only problem.
Speaker 13: I know you spent a lot of time buried in
Speaker 13: this data trying to distill it, and isn't it what
Speaker 13: it shows that things that the president is spending a
Speaker 13: lot of his energy on say, meeting with Shijhin Ping
Speaker 13: next week, pushing for funding for Israel and Ukraine are
Speaker 13: just not the things that voters care as much about.
Speaker 16: Yeah, as president, you can't always pick your issues that
Speaker 16: come to you, right, the buck stops here, and when
Speaker 16: it comes to issues like the Israel Hamas War or
Speaker 16: the Ukraine Russian War, that's an issue that the president's
Speaker 16: got to deal with. When presidents do have a choice,
Speaker 16: they generally like to wait until their second terms to
Speaker 16: take on foreign policy. It's a legacy project because they've
Speaker 16: already survived that re election effort. And here you have
Speaker 16: a President Biden being forced to deal with issues on
Speaker 16: the world stage. While US voters, especially in these swing
Speaker 16: states that we've surveyed, are still very much focused on
Speaker 16: the economy. Inflation is still the number one issue within
Speaker 16: that economy issue group, and foreign affairs ranks way down
Speaker 16: the of issues that voters care most about.
Speaker 2: You talk about border security, how about when it comes
Speaker 2: to the economy, this is still the overriding issue that's
Speaker 2: going to decide this selection, is it not?
Speaker 16: Look, the economy is always the issue. It's become a
Speaker 16: political cliche, the old was it? Jim Carvill or George Stephanopolois,
Speaker 16: James Cargo. It's the economy stupid, and it's still the
Speaker 16: economy stupid. It's almost absolutely and especially when times are bad.
Speaker 16: When when times are good, people have the luxury more
Speaker 16: so to argue about social issues and foreign policy and
Speaker 16: other things. When the economy is bad, it's the only issue.
Speaker 16: And voters are telling us that the economy is bad. Now,
Speaker 16: we might look at an economic indicators and say, well,
Speaker 16: look that the the unappoyment rate is still near historic lows.
Speaker 16: The inflation rate is coming down now. It was very high,
Speaker 16: but it's on a downward trajectory. Voters aren't feeling that
Speaker 16: quite yet. They still feel like this is an economy
Speaker 16: that hasn't quite recovered from the pandemic. And they're blaming
Speaker 16: Joe Biden. Why because he's the president of United States.
Speaker 16: When you're the president of the United States, whether you cause
Speaker 16: the issue or not, you're accountable for fixing it.
Speaker 2: But you made the point as well that if the
Speaker 2: economy was bad, we wouldn't probably be obsessing over all
Speaker 2: these other issues that kayley than its own indicator.
Speaker 13: I guess that makes sense to you, Gregory.
Speaker 14: I'm sorry, did I twist that around. Yeah, yeah, that
Speaker 14: is good. Yes, yes, we can.
Speaker 2: Get upset about a lot of things. But if it's
Speaker 2: not so, it just speaks to the issues that we're
Speaker 2: discussing in this poll.
Speaker 6: Yeah.
Speaker 16: Well, so one of the things that you're hearing from
Speaker 16: the Biden campaign in the White House is an emphasis
Speaker 16: on issues like abortion. We saw that this week with
Speaker 16: the elections in Virginia and Ohio that in some ways
Speaker 16: were considered a referendum on that issue. And in those
Speaker 16: places where abortion was on the ballot, either literally or
Speaker 16: by proxy, Democrats did very well. And so yes, we're
Speaker 16: going to see in the next year Joe Biden continuing
Speaker 16: to go back to that issue because it is one
Speaker 16: that motivates Democratic voters.
Speaker 13: Eli to bring you back in the conversation here, we're
Speaker 13: talking about what motivates Democratic voters and Republican voters. And
Speaker 13: of course we're looking at the poll here and what
Speaker 13: is presumed to be who thet the tickets on either
Speaker 13: side is going to be. It's going to be Donald
Speaker 13: Trump versus Joe Biden. And yet there are room there
Speaker 13: is room here for third parties, and that was evident
Speaker 13: in this poll as well. RFK Junior getting what ten percent?
Speaker 13: Could that get even more disruptive potentially.
Speaker 15: I mean, I think some of that is people just
Speaker 15: being unhappy with the candidates they have right now. I mean,
Speaker 15: a good chunk of voters like ten percent suppor RFK
Speaker 15: another shares, so I think back somebody else. Both sides
Speaker 15: of the aisle are not thrilled about their nominees, despite
Speaker 15: the fact that Joe Biden and Donald Trump lead their
Speaker 15: respective primaries by a lot. But you know, currently there
Speaker 15: is some unease in the elector about re elevating these people.
Speaker 15: But at the end of the day, I mean, this
Speaker 15: contest between the two candidates the American people have is
Speaker 15: going to be a close one, and I think that
Speaker 15: the survey proves that.
Speaker 2: I'm spending some time with Eli Yoakley at morning consulting
Speaker 2: Gregory Cordy here at Bloomberg looking over our polling results.
Speaker 2: Here Genie Shanzino Eli in our last hour, our Democratic
Speaker 2: analyst who is an expert on polling, a political science professor,
Speaker 2: took some issue with this idea of producing an aggregate
Speaker 2: number from swing states, many of which were within the
Speaker 2: margin of error. Is there some truth to that?
Speaker 15: I mean, maybe, but we look at the specific states
Speaker 15: and the numbers are all pretty similar. I mean, both
Speaker 15: Joe Biden in each of the states that we surveyed
Speaker 15: does not have voters trust to hay and handle a
Speaker 15: range of issues. The economy is clearly the top issue.
Speaker 15: On the Israel issue ranks pretty low in all of
Speaker 15: the states, and Joe Biden is almost losing in most
Speaker 15: of these states.
Speaker 13: And to that point, Gregory on Israel ranking very low.
Speaker 13: I believe three percent of those that were surveyed said
Speaker 13: that that was a top issue for them going into
Speaker 13: this election, especially given the ongoing conversations on Capitol Hill
Speaker 13: about how Israel should be funded, what conditions may be
Speaker 13: tied to it, whether or not Ukraine should continue to
Speaker 13: get funding at all. Results like these theoretically could give
Speaker 13: members of Congress some cover in not supporting that.
Speaker 8: Right.
Speaker 16: Yeah, So this is These numbers on Israel, on Ukraine,
Speaker 16: on the border complicate Joe Biden's life in two ways.
Speaker 16: One is, he's trying to get this one hundred and
Speaker 16: six billion dollars supplemental spending bill through Congress, and he's
Speaker 16: doing that by trying to give a little bit to
Speaker 16: everybody he wants to include Ukraine AID, Israel AID, and
Speaker 16: the border. And there are majorities, or at least pluralities
Speaker 16: of Americans in these swing states that support each one
Speaker 16: of those, but sometimes they're different majorities in each one
Speaker 16: of these areas. So you have republic are very much
Speaker 16: split over Ukraine. Republicans very much want to support Israel,
Speaker 16: but on Israel, that's where Biden starts to lose some
Speaker 16: of his own Democratic base. The more progressive you are,
Speaker 16: the younger you are, some minority groups are disproportionately opposed
Speaker 16: to supporting Israel, and Biden thinks he should be doing
Speaker 16: more to help civilians in Gaza. And so if those
Speaker 16: voters are disillusioned by Biden going into twenty twenty four,
Speaker 16: they're not going to vote for Trump, but maybe they
Speaker 16: stay home Blan. It's got a difficult balancing act here,
Speaker 16: especially in college campuses. This is a big issue as we've.
Speaker 2: Seen does it grease the skids though ELI on getting
Speaker 2: Ukraine funding passed. If it needs to come with border
Speaker 2: security funding, more Democrats might be on board with this idea,
Speaker 2: and they see numbers like these.
Speaker 15: I mean, funding the border is very popular across party lines.
Speaker 15: This is an issue that kind of a units to
Speaker 15: the American people, and it's one that President and performed
Speaker 15: very very poorly on. He needs to get a border
Speaker 15: win on the immigration issue. If he can keep these
Speaker 15: things together, perhaps that could work. The problem is this
Speaker 15: Ukraine issue is now politically device of Republicans on Capitol
Speaker 15: Hill see no real motivation to work with him on this,
Speaker 15: at least in the House. He's also some Senate Republicans
Speaker 15: are with him, but this is going to be a
Speaker 15: big lift on Capitol Hill. And this survey, I think
Speaker 15: suggests that focusing on Israel and the word may be
Speaker 15: the path forward for now.
Speaker 13: And of course we have to keep in mind that
Speaker 13: this survey was completed as it was set to be
Speaker 13: released before we got the news that Senator Joe Manchin
Speaker 13: is not seeking reelection in twenty twenty four. Obviously could
Speaker 13: be problematic for the Democratic Party in terms of keeping
Speaker 13: a majority in the Senate as that seat may very
Speaker 13: well go to a Republican. It shifts the math. But
Speaker 13: also this idea that okay, maybe we really are going
Speaker 13: to get a unity ticket from No Labels and maybe
Speaker 13: very well we could see Joe Manchin on it. ELI
Speaker 13: has Morning Consul doesn't work on what no they Boles
Speaker 13: could actually see in terms of support if they were
Speaker 13: to decide to run a candidate.
Speaker 15: I think that might be showing up in some of
Speaker 15: the someone else we have here. There's clearly a chunk
Speaker 15: of the electorate that is open to it. I think
Speaker 15: the way we've thought about it more is thinking about
Speaker 15: the Senate map. I mean, Joe Manch, Joe Mansion leaving
Speaker 15: the Senate makes a huge lift for Democrats who trying
Speaker 15: to move forward with a Senate majority, and they're on
Speaker 15: tough turf in all of the competitive states right now.
Speaker 15: Joe Manchin was losing his popularity in West Virginia. The
Speaker 15: Republican nominee is one of the most popular governors. The
Speaker 15: may is going to be the Republican nominee probably is
Speaker 15: one of the most popular governors in Thery. He was
Speaker 15: probably going to lose that race, and so this is
Speaker 15: going to be a big lift for Senate Democrats moving forward.
Speaker 2: You went there, Kayley, so let's go there to the
Speaker 2: video Joe Manchin from yesterday.
Speaker 17: I will not be running for reelection to the United
Speaker 17: States Senate, but what I will be doing is traveling
Speaker 17: the country and speaking out to see if there is
Speaker 17: an interest in creating a move to mobilize the middle
Speaker 17: and bring Americans together, a.
Speaker 2: Movement to mobilize the middle, Gregory, what would that look like.
Speaker 16: Here's the issue with that is that there's there's no
Speaker 16: money in moderation.
Speaker 6: Right.
Speaker 16: Joe Manchin gets some of the lowest proportions of small
Speaker 16: dollar donors to his Senate campaign of any senator in
Speaker 16: the country. Because if you're a small donor, dollar donor,
Speaker 16: what do you get excited about? You get excited about
Speaker 16: Ted Cruz or Elizabeth Warren. There's not a lot of
Speaker 16: passion in the middle. And that's that's one of the
Speaker 16: big challenges that no labels is going to have that
Speaker 16: Joe Mansion's going to have. Maybe it's Larry Hogan or
Speaker 16: a Chris san Unu, a moderate Republican mid Romney. Who
Speaker 16: are the people who are going to go out and
Speaker 16: circulate signatures on a petition to get Joe Manchin on
Speaker 16: the ballot in fifty states. I'm sure they exist. But
Speaker 16: you know, look, we have a two party system, and
Speaker 16: that under our system, you win a party primary, you
Speaker 16: automatically advanced to fifty state ballots. When you're an independent
Speaker 16: like Joe Manchin. You've got to start that process from scratch,
Speaker 16: and it's getting late in the game. Ross pro did it.
Speaker 16: He was the last person to do it. And when
Speaker 16: it seems to think the highest watermark for these independent
Speaker 16: and third party candidates that we've seen in thirty years,
Speaker 16: but it's still it's still quite the left.
Speaker 2: You're going with Mitt Romney, huh mansion out there. I mean,
Speaker 2: you're not the first to suggest it. They put up
Speaker 2: that debt commission build together yesterday, same day he made
Speaker 2: the announcement. Eli Yoakley at Morning Console. Thank you Eli,
Speaker 2: Thanks as always to Greg recording with Kaylee Lions. I'm
Speaker 2: Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the
Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern on.
Speaker 7: Bloomberg Radio, the tune in alf, Bloomberg dot Com.
Speaker 6: And the Bloomberg Business App.
Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our
Speaker 1: flagship New York station Just Say Alexa, playing Bloomberg.
Speaker 2: Live from Washington, where the blockade against military promotions is
Speaker 2: still in place and it has been for nine months.
Speaker 2: I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lines and Kaylee This of
Speaker 2: course comes down to one man, a loan senator, the coach,
Speaker 2: Tommy Tubberville, the Senator from Alabama. He's nine months into
Speaker 2: this thing, and we're looking at somewhere in the area
Speaker 2: of three hundred and seventy military promotions that are on
Speaker 2: ice in his protest of the abortion travel policy at
Speaker 2: the Pentagon.
Speaker 13: Yeah, a policy that has affected a much smaller number
Speaker 13: than the number of military members of the military who
Speaker 13: had their promotions held up at this point. So it
Speaker 13: becomes a question of where the off ramp is and
Speaker 13: at what point we ultimately reach it. There was obviously
Speaker 13: a meeting within the Republicans in the Senate earlier this
Speaker 13: week about potential endgames. What would need to happen in
Speaker 13: order to get around this or for Tommy Tubberbtville to
Speaker 13: be satisfied. Just still not exactly clear what that is
Speaker 13: if that is achieved. And in the meantime, there are
Speaker 13: a lot of individuals, including Democrats, looking at workarounds.
Speaker 2: Democrats, even Republicans Joni or Espring. So that the idea
Speaker 2: is fine, then you don't want to pass them in
Speaker 2: a block, will bring them individually, one by one on
Speaker 2: the Senate floor. And that's what Tim Kaine thought he
Speaker 2: would try yesterday. He said, all three hundred and sixty
Speaker 2: three of them, if I don't run out of steam.
Speaker 2: And so here's Tim Kaine, the Senator from Virginia in
Speaker 2: the outset. Here, this is a bit of a saga
Speaker 2: that we're going to walk out.
Speaker 8: I ask unanimous consent that the Senate proceed to the
Speaker 8: consideration of the following nomination Calendar Item forty six, Colonel
Speaker 8: Lee A. Swanson to be Brigadier General. That the Senate
Speaker 8: vote on the nomination without intervening action or debate. That
Speaker 8: if confirmed, the motion or reconsider be considered, made and
Speaker 8: laid upon the table with no.
Speaker 16: Intervening action or debate.
Speaker 8: That any statements related to the nomination be printed in
Speaker 8: the record, And that the President be immediately notified of
Speaker 8: the Senate's action.
Speaker 2: So nothing controversy.
Speaker 1: Objection is President the Senator from Alabama.
Speaker 2: Object Yeah, I have Jack. That's Tommy Tuberville. He was
Speaker 2: on the floor for the whole thing. By the way,
Speaker 2: Tim Kaine set up a military Day from Alabama signed
Speaker 2: behind him, a Happy Birthday Marine Corps and a Veteran's
Speaker 2: Day by the way, A happy Veterans Day.
Speaker 13: Yeah, thank you to all who have served.
Speaker 2: You're part of our show today. Indeed, thank you for
Speaker 2: your service. Uh, this is probably not going to make
Speaker 2: you very happy. So that was Corey Booker presiding over
Speaker 2: the Senate. By the time John Fetterman got there, this
Speaker 2: turned into a bit of a city.
Speaker 6: Is there an objection?
Speaker 18: I was President, the Senator from Alabama object? Objection is heard?
Speaker 8: Is the next item calendar two two nine? Mister President,
Speaker 8: Then I asked the same request that would be in
Speaker 8: order to make the same request with respect calendar item
Speaker 8: two to nine, Captain David E. Ludwell to be rear
Speaker 8: Admiral lower half.
Speaker 2: Try again on a difference.
Speaker 18: Is there an Objection's? President, the Senator from Alabama object
Speaker 18: The objection is heard.
Speaker 2: The objection is heard as we bring in the General
Speaker 2: Mark KIMMITTT, retired Brigadier General, former Assistant Secretary of State
Speaker 2: for Political Military Affairs. General, It's good to see you
Speaker 2: and welcome back. I know John Fetterman was laughing there,
Speaker 2: but it's not obviously a very funny matter with these
Speaker 2: promotions held up. Tommy Tarberville showing no signs of stopping
Speaker 2: he's even standing on the Senate floor to go through
Speaker 2: three hundred of these at a time if necessary. What
Speaker 2: should be the strategy in dealing with this.
Speaker 19: Well, I'm not a politician, nor do I understand Senate rules,
Speaker 19: but it's clear that we need to get these people
Speaker 19: on the job because it's not just three hundred officers,
Speaker 19: it's a thousand officers. Why is it a power, Well,
Speaker 19: if the commander is not in the job, then the
Speaker 19: deputy commander has to take over. The deputy commander's not
Speaker 19: on the job, then the assistant commander has to take over,
Speaker 19: and the deputy assistant has to take over for him.
Speaker 19: So essentially you have three people in temporary jobs having
Speaker 19: to do the work of for and that simply has
Speaker 19: an effect on not only readiness, but candidly good order
Speaker 19: and discipline within the unit.
Speaker 13: Well, what you hear consistently, though, general from Senator Tuberville
Speaker 13: is that this isn't impacting military readiness, that the military
Speaker 13: is still functioning. And what we hear is that it's
Speaker 13: not just about readiness in the moment, but what the
Speaker 13: future ramifications will be for the US military in terms
Speaker 13: of retention, in terms of recruitment, can you just expand
Speaker 13: upon that.
Speaker 19: Well, I think those are two different issues between retention
Speaker 19: and recruitment. Candidly, you're talking about the generals at the
Speaker 19: very very top of the pecking order. I'm not sure
Speaker 19: any private considers retent that he will either stay in
Speaker 19: the military or not stay in the military based on
Speaker 19: a general's promotion. However, some would say this is just
Speaker 19: a symptom of a larger malaise within the military, most
Speaker 19: exemplified by the services that can't recruit enough people to
Speaker 19: come in. Don't think it necessarily has an issue to
Speaker 19: do with what Senator Tubberville is doing, but there are
Speaker 19: a lot of other issues that are keeping our young
Speaker 19: men and women from joining the services.
Speaker 2: General, we've discussed the argument before that this is not
Speaker 2: a major impact on readiness because there's a chain of
Speaker 2: command and that's the point of the structure in the military.
Speaker 2: How long can that argument be made.
Speaker 19: Well, again, at the general officer level, A very long
Speaker 19: and unfortunately bad period of time. Long period of time,
Speaker 19: but look, if you take a look at the battlefield.
Speaker 19: I was watching the documentary last night or the show
Speaker 19: The Pacific and watching those commanders die on the battlefield
Speaker 19: and those young lieutenants taking over and the sergeants taking over.
Speaker 19: I think at the lowest level, the ground tactical level,
Speaker 19: and at the highest level of the strategic level, the military
Speaker 19: readiness will not be impacted for a very, very long
Speaker 19: period of time. But I'm more concerned about those other
Speaker 19: issues that you referenced, recruiting and retention.
Speaker 13: But on the idea of readiness, and you say it
Speaker 13: may take some time in actuality in reality for readiness
Speaker 13: to have an impact. What about just the perception though,
Speaker 13: when people or countries abroad are looking in and considering
Speaker 13: the US military force, knowing that all of this is
Speaker 13: going on.
Speaker 19: Well, I would say other countries looking in have got
Speaker 19: a lot more a longer list of items that they're
Speaker 19: going to be looking at in terms of the downward
Speaker 19: trend in their view on the United States. We still
Speaker 19: have the best military in the world. I think our
Speaker 19: adversary certainly understand that this is just some tom foolery
Speaker 19: in the United States Congress. I don't think any enemy
Speaker 19: is saying, well, I wasn't going to attack last week,
Speaker 19: but this week, since Tumberville is playing games in Congress,
Speaker 19: let's go.
Speaker 2: This could go on indefinitely. This could go on for
Speaker 2: another year. In general, we could still be having this
Speaker 2: conversation around election time. What will it mean for the
Speaker 2: military by then.
Speaker 19: Well, first of all, I'll take that bet. It looks
Speaker 19: like the United States Senate, on both sides of the
Speaker 19: aisle are recognizing that this is you know, it's just
Speaker 19: toddry kind of politics, and so people like Tim Kane
Speaker 19: it looks like they're stepping up to the plate and
Speaker 19: try to work their way through.
Speaker 13: It as we look to what may still be ongoing
Speaker 13: by this time next year. There are also ongoing wars
Speaker 13: we have to consider in Israel with moss Ukraine versus Russia,
Speaker 13: and obviously in Congress, it's not just a matter of
Speaker 13: getting members of the military promoted. It's a matter of
Speaker 13: providing aid and funding, which is a subject of much
Speaker 13: debate general. If they can't get around to figuring out
Speaker 13: a compromise on funding quickly, what's the implication.
Speaker 19: Well, now you're addressing the real readiness issue. What really
Speaker 19: has a challenge to do with our operational capability? If we
Speaker 19: don't have airplanes, or the airplanes that we have are
Speaker 19: two old to be effective, we don't have enough ships,
Speaker 19: if we don't have enough weapons systems for our troops.
Speaker 19: That is going to have a significant effect on readiness.
Speaker 19: And that's less about what Senator Tumberville is doing with promotions,
Speaker 19: more to do with both the House and Senate not
Speaker 19: providing enough to the procurement accounts and the investment accounts
Speaker 19: of the United States Military that will make a difference.
Speaker 19: That will provide an incentive to our adversaries to take
Speaker 19: more risk than the otherwise would have taken. If they
Speaker 19: know the United States military, it's not the premier military
Speaker 19: in terms of not only troops, not only in terms
Speaker 19: of training, but if they don't have the tools they
Speaker 19: need to defeat or deter our enemies, that has a
Speaker 19: much larger impact than the promotion rate inside the US
Speaker 19: military general.
Speaker 2: We appreciate the insights and thank you for joining us
Speaker 2: on this Veteran's day. We don't always have the opportunity
Speaker 2: to say thank you for your service, So be well
Speaker 2: this weekend, and thanks for joining us on Bloomberg. Thanks
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