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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us

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Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the

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Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen on

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Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts.

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Speaker 2: One week to a shutdown and no clear path to

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Speaker 2: avoid one. Welcome to the fastest show in politics. As

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Speaker 2: most lawmakers head home for the weekend without a deal

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Speaker 2: on spending, never mind funding for Israel or Ukraine, though

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Speaker 2: the Speaker of the House is he will drop a

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Speaker 2: stopgap bill tomorrow, We're joined ahead to talk about it

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Speaker 2: by congress Woman Victoria Sparts, the Republican from Indiana, grew

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Speaker 2: up in Ukraine and will bring her unique view to

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Speaker 2: the conversation. In just a moment. Swing state voters more

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Speaker 2: concerned about the border than threats from abroad that according

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Speaker 2: to new polling from Bloomberg and Morning Consult. Will cover

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Speaker 2: all these stories with our signature panel Bloomberg Politics contributors

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Speaker 2: Gdi Shanzeo and Rick Davis. Welcome to the Friday edition

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Speaker 2: of Bloomberg Sound On. We do have a bit of

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Speaker 2: news here seven days out the government set to shut

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Speaker 2: down a week from today, well at midnight at least,

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Speaker 2: and it appears Republican leadership in the House is set

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Speaker 2: to drop a continuing resolution tomorrow. We're gonna get actually

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Speaker 2: a real look at what this stopgap measure includes, of course,

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Speaker 2: aimed at avoiding a government shut down. I asked the

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Speaker 2: one person who got it right last time, Sarah Chamberlain,

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Speaker 2: president CEO of the Republican Main Street Partnership, about whether

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Speaker 2: the government would shut down in one week. Here's what

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Speaker 2: she said. Remembering Sarah was the only person who told

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Speaker 2: us the government would not shut down last time, when

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Speaker 2: that was the conventional wisdom. Here she is from Balance

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Speaker 2: of Power on Bloomberg TV.

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Speaker 3: I think in the very last moment, we don't shut down,

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Speaker 3: but it's gonna I'm gonna sweat it more. Last time,

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Speaker 3: I was one hundred percent confident from the beginning. This time,

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Speaker 3: i'm that, to be honest with then, I knew Kevin

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Speaker 3: much better than I know the current speaking so I

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Speaker 3: had a lot of faith that Kevin would cut the deals.

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Speaker 3: I don't know the current speaker at all, to be honest,

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Speaker 3: but the republic Community Partnership members are really pushing him

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Speaker 3: because we're the ones that live in the bubble. We're

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Speaker 3: the ones that will lose. We will lose, the majority

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Speaker 3: of the members lose, and they do not want government

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Speaker 3: shut down because all the polling shows it will be

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Speaker 3: blamed on the Republicans.

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Speaker 2: We'll see one week from today, maybe we'll be playing

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Speaker 2: that tape back. And that's where we begin our conversation

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Speaker 2: with the congresswoman from Indiana, Victorias Sparks, Republican, who has

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Speaker 2: already announced her intention not to run for reelection and

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Speaker 2: can speak freely. Congressman, Congressman, and I hope that's the case.

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Speaker 2: Welcome back to Bloomberg. I wonder if you've had a

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Speaker 2: chance to see this continuing resolution that we expect to

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Speaker 2: drop tomorrow and what's in it.

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Speaker 4: Well, I think we still have a kind of a discussion,

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Speaker 4: but I all of us spoke freely, regardless if I

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Speaker 4: run or not, you know, because I truly believe we

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Speaker 4: need to do it. So I'll tell you one saying,

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Speaker 4: I think the discussions we have and I'll be honest

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Speaker 4: with you, no one is talking about shut it down

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Speaker 4: the government.

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Speaker 5: We are talking about it.

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Speaker 4: How can we really force some appropriate processes and how

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Speaker 4: we want to make sure that we don't have a

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Speaker 4: last second, you know, omnibus from the Senate before Christmas.

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Speaker 4: It's been done now for years, which it does the

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Speaker 4: service to the people, and there is a way for

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Speaker 4: us to come to find consensus on border security and

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Speaker 4: have a debt commission. So maybe we have a better

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Speaker 4: plan next year how to deal with crushing debt and inflation.

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Speaker 4: I think it will be very hard, since we do

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Speaker 4: have a position on that, you know, from the Democrats

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Speaker 4: and the Senate, for us to do some more heavy lifting.

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Speaker 4: So it probably will be much easier. You know, it's

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Speaker 4: much more simple resolution where it's going to be funding.

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Speaker 4: I hope to more like mid January or we go

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Speaker 4: over the holidays, so there is no pressure to do

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Speaker 4: bad bills. Also, it hits one percent cut that was

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Speaker 4: agreed and also maybe add an Israel with some offsets.

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Speaker 5: I think that is kind of discussions we have.

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Speaker 2: Okay, got it. Our reporting says that the Speaker is

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Speaker 2: looking at this idea of a laddered cr that would

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Speaker 2: not be a whole bunch of deadlines, but in fact

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Speaker 2: two one group of appropriations bills expiring in January, the

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Speaker 2: other in February. Does that sound like a plan to you?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, listen, it's an option. You know.

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Speaker 4: It makes it a little bit complicated for us to

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Speaker 4: explain what it is, and it will make them for

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Speaker 4: the Senate much you know, they will try to jam something,

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Speaker 4: you know, probably with mid December, because that's the goal

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Speaker 4: of the Senate to jam something to us and right

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Speaker 4: before Christmas to force everyone to vote for omnibus. So

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Speaker 4: I think that's an option if we can try to

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Speaker 4: do a two tier at CR. One of them will

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Speaker 4: go to mid January and there are some appropriation we're

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Speaker 4: already passed, and we're really in the Senate pass some too,

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Speaker 4: but force us to go into conference and actually have

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Speaker 4: a true appropriation process where we try to agree, not

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Speaker 4: going through omnibus. So that's I think the intent, you know,

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Speaker 4: and I think more Republicans are inclined to have this

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Speaker 4: two tier CR. You know, we just need to decide

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Speaker 4: with timing. So we need to make sure that they're

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Speaker 4: not going to cent us something last second before everyone leaves,

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Speaker 4: and there's going to be something we don't want. So unfortunately,

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Speaker 4: too much politics, but we'll see what majority of Republicans.

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Speaker 4: I am open to do either one as long as

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Speaker 4: we're not doing something before Christmas?

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Speaker 2: Do you need to see cuts to vote?

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Speaker 6: Yes?

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Speaker 4: Listen, if we actually go through January fifteenth or nineteen,

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Speaker 4: so we actual already will have at least, you know,

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Speaker 4: modest one percent cut, which is better than Carress done

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Speaker 4: for years now. So because we're already, you know, and

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Speaker 4: during death Sealing negotiation, we had a lot of people

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Speaker 4: call it Massy cut because courssmen messy trying to be realistic,

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Speaker 4: because with inflation, even have one percent cut, it's already

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Speaker 4: actually a huge cut, right considering now inflation unfortunately, you know,

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Speaker 4: So I think that will actually will do it cut.

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Speaker 4: You know, I think airing more stuff maybe easier. Al

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Speaker 4: with offsets, I think it will be very, very difficult.

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Speaker 4: Some of my people do want to have border security.

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Speaker 4: I personally beg you know, proponent of debt commission, but

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Speaker 4: it might have to be dealt a little bit later

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Speaker 4: this year.

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Speaker 2: I want to ask you about that debt commission, and

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Speaker 2: I'm glad that you brought that up. You actually threatened

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Speaker 2: to resign from Congress a little over a month ago

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Speaker 2: during the last funding debate. Specifically, you said if a

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Speaker 2: debt commission was not passed this year, you said in

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Speaker 2: a statement. Quote, there is a limitation to human capacity.

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Speaker 2: Congress Woman, you said, if Congress does not pass a

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Speaker 2: debt commission this year to move the needle on the

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Speaker 2: crushing national debt and inflation at least at the next

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Speaker 2: debt ceiling increase at the end of twenty twenty four,

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Speaker 2: I will not continue sacrificing my children for this circus

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Speaker 2: with a complete absence of leadership, vision, and spine. You're right,

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Speaker 2: I cannot save this Republic alone. There's still no debt commission, Congresswoman,

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Speaker 2: will you resign still if one is not created?

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Speaker 4: Litten, we got much more progress, and it took me

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Speaker 4: a while to move Kevin mccarthson in the right direction.

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Speaker 4: Speak at Johnson and he's wear an in speech. He

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Speaker 4: actually brought this issue. So I'm glad to hear that

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Speaker 4: he's understand to see this policy. But we've just been

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Speaker 4: working on the Senate and since he was seen, we

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Speaker 4: actually just had Senator Romian Mansied and some other Democrat

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Speaker 4: and Republicans Senator's introducing it, you know, yeah, just yesterday,

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Speaker 4: So the day before yesterday they introduced it. So I

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Speaker 4: think it's important and we see some movement in the

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Speaker 4: Senate on a bipartiesan basis to be serious and have

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Speaker 4: a genuine conversation, so we'll, you know, we all see

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Speaker 4: what is going to happen. I think it's a you know,

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Speaker 4: border security and crushing debt. It's two major national securities issues.

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Speaker 4: We've been neglected for a very long time. But I

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Speaker 4: think they become serious enough. If we don't start doing something,

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Speaker 4: then just continue doing politics, because people don't realize whatever

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Speaker 4: we govern right now, in the next few months, the

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Speaker 4: rest of the year, everyone will be doing politics and

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Speaker 4: doing election campaigns and fundraising, so nothing serious is going

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Speaker 4: to be happening legislatively. Let's just be honest. So we

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Speaker 4: have to become adults in the room and do something

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Speaker 4: in governing, not do politics and campaigning.

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Speaker 5: The right next day after the election. It's irresponsible.

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Speaker 2: You sound as passionate as ever, conversoone, are you sure

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Speaker 2: you want to resign?

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Speaker 5: Well, listen, I don't know. I'm going to listen, I said.

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Speaker 4: Because I told Kevin, if he's not going to deliver

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Speaker 4: a serious issue, I said, I'm going to assess the situation.

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Speaker 5: But I don't give up easily. I'm working very.

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Speaker 4: Hard, and I think we're getting Senate to attraction too,

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Speaker 4: so I listened had I had a lot of fights.

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Speaker 4: Kevin was a nice guy, but he's definitely didn't like

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Speaker 4: to govern. Mike Johnson is much better speaker on governing.

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Speaker 4: He truly wants to deliver for the people on issues.

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Speaker 4: It shouldn't be partisan. What is security in debt shouldn't

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Speaker 4: be partisan issues? And I'm glad you know, I've been

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Speaker 4: working extremely hard with the Senate, reaching out to all

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Speaker 4: of the sides of the aisle myself, and I'm glad

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Speaker 4: to see that Senate finalist that movement a little bit.

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Speaker 2: We should note to our viewers and listeners that you

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Speaker 2: voted against Austin Speaker McCarthy.

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Speaker 7: Uh.

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Speaker 2: Just for what it's worth, Congresso, when I'd like to

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Speaker 2: ask you about Ukraine, you of course grew up in

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Speaker 2: Ukraine and have a unique view on this funding debate.

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Speaker 2: You've made it clear that you support funding the war effort,

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Speaker 2: but you also have suggested that you want to see

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Speaker 2: accountability on how that money is spent. What would it

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Speaker 2: look like. How would that accountability or audit be strong

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Speaker 2: enough to satisfy you?

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Speaker 4: Well, I think first we need accountability, but also you

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Speaker 4: know accountability. A lot of money actuallys that supposedly airmark

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Speaker 4: for Ukraine, they don't even go to Ukraine, they go

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Speaker 4: to a lot of association causes's become a slash fund,

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Speaker 4: which kind of does the service to this appense. But

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Speaker 4: also to make sure that we know what the strategy

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Speaker 4: is because President Biden tells one things on TV, but

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Speaker 4: his action has been slow working the aid and really

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Speaker 4: been very weak, you know so and you only can

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Speaker 4: you know, deal with aggresses like put In with weapons

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Speaker 4: and usual only ten to twenty percent of money goes

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Speaker 4: directly to weapons. The rest goes to some other things,

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Speaker 4: and you cannot win the war. So he needs to

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Speaker 4: be honest. What is his strategy and how the strategy

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Speaker 4: and actions could be aligned together. And I think these

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Speaker 4: are conversations we need to ask because we have a

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Speaker 4: lot of issues. We have to deal with a lot

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Speaker 4: of domestic issues, and we want to be strong abroad

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Speaker 4: because those countries like Russia, China or Iran causing a

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Speaker 4: lot of headaches and they're all after us. But we

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Speaker 4: need to have strengths and strategy when we deal with

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Speaker 4: stuff like that. And I think that's going to be

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Speaker 4: a discussion and President ows to Countress and American people

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Speaker 4: to explain what's happening and also to be more transparent

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Speaker 4: and why it is in our national interest, because ultimately

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Speaker 4: we need to understand that all of these issues are

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Speaker 4: going to be affecting us and they're destabilizing the whole world.

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Speaker 5: And what's happening in Israel is not by accident.

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Speaker 2: Can Ukraine win this war?

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Speaker 4: Ukrainian people, you know, will eventually win this war because

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Speaker 4: you know, the millions of life destroyed.

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Speaker 5: It's a matter for them how many lives it will take,

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Speaker 5: you know, because millions of life has already destroyed, hundred

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Speaker 5: thousands of people already killed, family is destroyed. I mean,

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Speaker 5: countriverts to so much suffering. Now you have a very

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Speaker 5: difficult situation to reconcile.

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Speaker 4: And unfortunately we're not was decisive before the war, in

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Speaker 4: the first year of the war, because in Russia now

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Speaker 4: is being destabilized and they're very good at hybrid warfare.

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Speaker 4: They're destabilizing Europe, meddle easy mingling in Africa, making deal

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Speaker 4: with the Rinds in China, and you know, career, I

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Speaker 4: mean they you know, listen, don't underestimate you know, the

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Speaker 4: FORMAKGB apparatus. How they're good at buying and you know, destabilizing.

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Speaker 4: I mean they try to destabilize us here too, And

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Speaker 4: I think the social media is becoming even you know,

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Speaker 4: and more and more they have capabilities on that. And

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Speaker 4: so I think it's important for us to you know,

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Speaker 4: have peace through strength, to have strong strategy, but also

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Speaker 4: have an actions because we need to have allies.

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Speaker 5: We need to.

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Speaker 4: Support our allies around the world, but we also need

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Speaker 4: to make sure that we're tough with aggressors, and we

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Speaker 4: also need to make sure we deal with domestic issues first,

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Speaker 4: because if we're not strong internally, it only benefit our adversaries.

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Speaker 6: Well.

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg is reporting that advocates of aid to Ukraine are

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Speaker 2: dangling a lot of dollars in front of lawmakers based

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Speaker 2: on military contractors and other firms that are in their states.

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Speaker 2: If you look at the potential windfall for companies like

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Speaker 2: General Dynamics and raytheon now RTX, it might be difficult

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Speaker 2: for lawmakers to say no to this, knowing that a

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Speaker 2: lot of this money is going to stay here in

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Speaker 2: the US. Congresswoman, will Ukraine aid pass?

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Speaker 8: Well?

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Speaker 4: Listen, I think you know and truly we actually you know,

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Speaker 4: even we help, even though you know, the United States

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Speaker 4: will force Ukraine to give new clep appens and have

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Speaker 4: a piece of papor so but but regardless what it is,

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Speaker 4: I actually prefer that would have done it through land lease,

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Speaker 4: where we actually not just give them money, but Ukrainean

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Speaker 4: governments will owe as the money back.

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Speaker 5: That would have been my preferred way to do it.

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Speaker 4: And also we need to you know, so American people

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Speaker 4: what a benefit it is and how it is, you know,

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Speaker 4: how important for Ukrainians to win that. There are a

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Speaker 4: lot of implications on that, so I don't think that's

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Speaker 4: how people look at that. But I think on Ukrainian aid, unfortunately,

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Speaker 4: we'll have to leveragh some domestic issues, and that's a

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Speaker 4: discussion Republicans have. We want to have tiden border security legislatively,

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Speaker 4: because if we don't protect our border, and now what's

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Speaker 4: happening with terrorism on the rise in the Middle East,

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Speaker 4: it's become a serious issue. We will have a huge

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Speaker 4: problem internally. So I think a lot of Republicans want

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Speaker 4: bet overside more clear strategy, but also have border security

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Speaker 4: in the return you know, of any foreign aid, in

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Speaker 4: particularly Ukrainian aid.

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Speaker 2: Congress Woman is good to have you and I appreciate

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Speaker 2: your time today. Congress Woman Victoria's sparks the Republican from Indiana,

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Speaker 2: giving us a little bit of a sense about what

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Speaker 2: we might see tomorrow when this continuing resolution is dropped

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Speaker 2: by the Republican Speaker in the House of what might

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Speaker 2: follow next week, we'll take a quick swing with our

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Speaker 2: panel before a deeper dive ahead with Rick Davis and

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Speaker 2: Genie Shanzano, Bloomberg Politics contributors. Genie, the lattered CR we

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Speaker 2: were told was a non starter for Democrats in the

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Speaker 2: House and the Senate. Is this just another way the time?

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Speaker 9: I think it is, in the end going to be.

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Speaker 9: We also heard that from some Republicans who are terribly

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Speaker 9: concerned about this approach as well. The limited as we

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Speaker 9: are in time, the smart thing to do is a

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Speaker 9: clean CR. To waste time doing this walks us ever

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Speaker 9: closer to what you were just talking about, which is

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Speaker 9: a potential government shutdown that it is in everybody's interest

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Speaker 9: to avoid. So I do think this is a problematic strategy.

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Speaker 9: But when the speaker, the new Speaker, feels like he

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Speaker 9: has no choice but to pursue At this point, we'll.

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Speaker 2: Have more time for this Rick, But do you see

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Speaker 2: a shutdown on the cards in one week?

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Speaker 6: Yeah?

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Speaker 2: Very well, could be.

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Speaker 10: I mean it's very unusual to not have any real

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Speaker 10: clear indications from the Speaker as to what form and

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Speaker 10: substance the cr is going to take very hard to

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Speaker 10: whip votes. I'm not getting any indication, and he's aggressively

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Speaker 10: being going out and whipping boats for this CR.

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Speaker 6: Yet.

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Speaker 2: We're going to get into this in more depth with

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Speaker 2: our political panel coming up, along with new polling Day

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Speaker 2: from Bloomberg and Morning Consults. As we get back to

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Speaker 2: this issue of the border the congresswoman was talking about

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Speaker 2: for swing state voters, that's more important than threats from abroad.

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Speaker 2: We'll get into that straight ahead. On the Fastest Show

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Speaker 2: in Politics, This is Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the

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Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern.

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Speaker 7: On Bloomberg Radio, the tune in alf, Bloomberg dot Com,

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Speaker 7: and the.

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Speaker 6: Bloomberg Business App.

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Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

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Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 2: The Fastest Show in Politics. As we skid into a

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Speaker 2: weekend here without a plan in sight on avoiding a

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Speaker 2: government shutdown just one week away. Though, as we were

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Speaker 2: just talking about, I'm glad you joined us here on

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Speaker 2: the radio, on the satellite, and on YouTube. We are

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Speaker 2: going to see a bill tomorrow, Speaker Johnson said, to

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Speaker 2: unveil his continuing resolution, will find out if it's laddered

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Speaker 2: or not. And that is the idea here. Some of

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Speaker 2: the appropriations would expire in January, others in February, and

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Speaker 2: that would not avoid a one percent cut. As we

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Speaker 2: discussed a little while ago with Congresswoman's sparts, I'm Joe

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Speaker 2: Matthew and Washington, and we've got our panel together, Rick

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Speaker 2: Davis and Genie Shanzano helping us understand what's going on here.

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Speaker 2: The debate surrounding Ukraine funding, which is something that the

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Speaker 2: congresswoman supports, a native of Ukraine, born and raised in

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Speaker 2: Ukraine before moving to this country and becoming a lawmaker.

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Speaker 2: That tied with border funding, and we're going to talk

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Speaker 2: quite a bit about that now we've got new pulling

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Speaker 2: data from Bloomberg on the border. There is a non

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Speaker 2: starter for Democrats, at least for now. Remember Chuck Schumer

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Speaker 2: just a couple of days ago on the Senate floor,

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Speaker 2: calls it a poison pill.

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Speaker 11: A group of Senate Republicans released a proposal for border

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Speaker 11: security that they want in exchange for Ukraine funding, and

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Speaker 11: they know full well what they came up with is

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Speaker 11: a total non starter. Instead of puting together common sense

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Speaker 11: border policies that can pass in divided government, Senate Republicans

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Speaker 11: basically copy and paste did large chunks of the House

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Speaker 11: House's radical HR two bill.

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Speaker 2: And it's looking like Ukraine funding will not be part

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Speaker 2: of a continuing resolution. This is going to take a minute.

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Speaker 2: With no agreement between the two parties, or apparently the

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Speaker 2: two chambers, let's bring the panel in on this, Rick Davis,

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Speaker 2: We've got numbers from Bloomberg and Morning Consul today, Swing

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Speaker 2: state voters book border before Mideast and Ukraine conflicts. How

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Speaker 2: does that inform for you the debate that we're about

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Speaker 2: to hear combining the border in Ukraine.

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Speaker 10: Yeah, it was only about three weeks ago that we

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Speaker 10: were talking about the border funding being actually a drag

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Speaker 10: on some of this supplemental spending. But if I'm a

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Speaker 10: Democrat and I'm looking at twenty twenty four and the

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Speaker 10: kind of numbers we've seen in the Bloomberg pole out

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Speaker 10: today that I'm going to jump on board the funding

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Speaker 10: for border in a minute, in no time at all,

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Speaker 10: because if they don't, if they're not seen as being productive,

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Speaker 10: if they're not seen as being protective, if they don't

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Speaker 10: look like they are trying to ensure border integrity for

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Speaker 10: the United States, they're going to get punished in twenty

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Speaker 10: twenty four. Because this is an issue that has only

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Speaker 10: gotten stronger as more people come across the border.

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Speaker 2: The numbers are hard to deny. Here, Genie, about three

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Speaker 2: times as many voters said immigration is their top issue

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Speaker 2: in the twenty four presidential contest as those who said

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Speaker 2: the same about the Israel Hamas war. Sixty eight percent

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Speaker 2: of respondents in the Bloomberg Morning Console poll, and we

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Speaker 2: had a sample of almost five thousand people, so they

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Speaker 2: approve of funding for border protection a larger share than

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Speaker 2: the sixty one percent who back a to Israel and

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Speaker 2: the fifty eight percent who favor aid to Ukraine. You

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Speaker 2: can see the chart here if you're with us watching

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Speaker 2: on YouTube. So I could ask you this in a

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Speaker 2: couple of different ways. Jeanie, do you agree with Rick

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Speaker 2: for starters, Democrats need to get on board or is

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Speaker 2: it more nuanced than that? Do Democrats need to start

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Speaker 2: delineating between the so called border and immigration policy, because

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Speaker 2: they're two very different things.

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Speaker 9: You know, if you look at the package that the

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Speaker 9: President put forward and has supported, it does have funding

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Speaker 9: in there for the border, for Taiwan, for Israel, and

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Speaker 9: for Ukraine. So you know they did that. One hundred

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Speaker 9: and six billion does include that. And I have long

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Speaker 9: said and this pole the numbers are very big. To

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Speaker 9: your point, seven out of ten Americans in this poll

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Speaker 9: registered voters in these swing states importantly supporting or approving

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Speaker 9: funding for border protection. That is no surprise. Look at

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Speaker 9: the results on Tuesday. Democrats did well on the issue

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Speaker 9: of abortion. But you look at my home state of

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Speaker 9: New York and you see some bright spots for Republicans.

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Speaker 9: The Suffolk County executive race, the biggest executive race or

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Speaker 9: the biggest county in the country, Republicans won, and they

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Speaker 9: won it on the back of border security immigration issues,

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Speaker 9: and that is going to repeat itself across the country.

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Speaker 9: Prime and security will always best foreign policy in the

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Speaker 9: minds of voters. Unless we have boots on the ground

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Speaker 9: so since we don't, it's always going to best that

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Speaker 9: in the minds of voters and come in, you know,

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Speaker 9: a close second to something like the economy. So this

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Speaker 9: is no surprise the administration and Democrats have got to

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Speaker 9: get a handle on it. People, this is their daily

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Speaker 9: lives experience. In New York City, one hundred thousand people

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Speaker 9: came into the city and the shelters are overwhelmed. That

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Speaker 9: is just one city, that's where people are living. They

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Speaker 9: don't feel like we have the ability to sustain that

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Speaker 9: without federal action on this issue that we've been waiting

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Speaker 9: for decades to get federal action on. So yes, they

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Speaker 9: should absolutely take this opportunity to fund the border with

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Speaker 9: Israel and with Ukraine and Taiwan.

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Speaker 2: Let's look at these states here. It's Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan,

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Speaker 2: North Carolina, and Wisconsin. This is why it's more important, frankly,

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Speaker 2: than a national poll. So we can really zero in

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Speaker 2: here on the results. Rick Donald Trump leads Joe Biden

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Speaker 2: forty seven percent to forty one percent across the seven

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Speaker 2: states in this poll. Are we done with this conventional

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Speaker 2: wisdom that Trump is the one man Biden can.

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Speaker 10: Beat Yeah, I think that this kind of blows that

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Speaker 10: out of the water. Bloomberg pole of a month ago

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Speaker 10: actually had Trump at forty seven also, but it had

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Speaker 10: Biden at forty three. So it's actually a couple points

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Speaker 10: down for Biden. So Democrats have to wake up and

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Speaker 10: realize they're in a fight. Where's the Biden campaign? What

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Speaker 10: ads are they running right now? Positive ads about Joe Biden?

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Speaker 10: I mean this idea that they were somehow enthusiastic about

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Speaker 10: Donald Trump being there, not the Republican nominee against them

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Speaker 10: is is?

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Speaker 2: Is juvenile?

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Speaker 10: I mean, it doesn't actually portend a good outcome for

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Speaker 10: Biden based on these polls. And so I'm actually amazed

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Speaker 10: that there's not more of a fight right now going

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Speaker 10: on with the Biden campaign. You know, I was told

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Speaker 10: just the other day they're not even polling, So why

438
00:22:34,119 --> 00:22:36,639
Speaker 10: would they even know if not for Bloomberg, you know

439
00:22:36,720 --> 00:22:38,560
Speaker 10: that they're in a they're in a horse race.

440
00:22:39,600 --> 00:22:42,040
Speaker 2: Well, we're doing what we can here, Genie, are you

441
00:22:42,080 --> 00:22:44,280
Speaker 2: growing worried about numbers like this? You remember we've been

442
00:22:44,359 --> 00:22:48,000
Speaker 2: hearing this for months and months. Just don't you know,

443
00:22:48,040 --> 00:22:50,800
Speaker 2: we don't want Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley because they

444
00:22:50,880 --> 00:22:53,359
Speaker 2: might win. We want to rematch with Donald Trump. Is

445
00:22:53,400 --> 00:22:54,679
Speaker 2: that flawed thinking?

446
00:22:56,160 --> 00:22:58,080
Speaker 9: You know, I don't think so, and I'm going to

447
00:22:58,160 --> 00:23:02,439
Speaker 9: surprisingly take exception ad impact just came out the Biden

448
00:23:02,560 --> 00:23:05,919
Speaker 9: campaign has spent thirty nine million dollars to day on

449
00:23:06,080 --> 00:23:09,800
Speaker 9: advertising for twenty four That is much more than the

450
00:23:09,840 --> 00:23:12,800
Speaker 9: two previous presidents. So they are out there talking, they

451
00:23:12,840 --> 00:23:16,160
Speaker 9: are out there spending. He was just in Illinois yesterday.

452
00:23:16,480 --> 00:23:19,439
Speaker 9: More importantly, we all talk all the time about the

453
00:23:19,480 --> 00:23:22,200
Speaker 9: fact that you can't combine these states. Let's not look

454
00:23:22,240 --> 00:23:24,920
Speaker 9: at this forty seven percent number. Let's look at these

455
00:23:24,920 --> 00:23:29,000
Speaker 9: states individually. The numbers are better for Trump than Democrats

456
00:23:29,040 --> 00:23:31,840
Speaker 9: would like. But it is in five of the seven

457
00:23:31,920 --> 00:23:34,560
Speaker 9: states that they are within a margin of error.

458
00:23:34,960 --> 00:23:37,600
Speaker 2: So yeah, hide in Michigan, Jeanie, it's to your point

459
00:23:37,600 --> 00:23:39,680
Speaker 2: that is correct. Well, well, well, I.

460
00:23:39,640 --> 00:23:42,800
Speaker 9: Would even say, yeah, tied, not only in Michigan, five

461
00:23:42,880 --> 00:23:45,040
Speaker 9: states when you look at the margin of error, so

462
00:23:45,440 --> 00:23:48,080
Speaker 9: you know, to say Trump is ahead in in six

463
00:23:48,160 --> 00:23:52,280
Speaker 9: of those states is a misnomer because in five of

464
00:23:52,320 --> 00:23:54,960
Speaker 9: those states that they are within a margin of error.

465
00:23:55,040 --> 00:23:57,760
Speaker 9: The margin of eras and polls matter when we don't

466
00:23:57,760 --> 00:24:01,200
Speaker 9: tell people that they expect that these numbers are solid,

467
00:24:01,240 --> 00:24:03,840
Speaker 9: and they are not. They are a probability, and they

468
00:24:03,880 --> 00:24:07,320
Speaker 9: are within a margin. That said, I am the biggest

469
00:24:08,000 --> 00:24:11,359
Speaker 9: skeptic on some of this stuff and very pessimistic. The

470
00:24:11,480 --> 00:24:15,160
Speaker 9: campaign has got to focus on the economy as much

471
00:24:15,200 --> 00:24:18,760
Speaker 9: as possible, but more importantly on the messenger. People are

472
00:24:18,880 --> 00:24:23,080
Speaker 9: terribly concerned about Joe Biden's age. They have got to

473
00:24:23,119 --> 00:24:25,360
Speaker 9: do what they can on that, and I don't think

474
00:24:25,440 --> 00:24:28,720
Speaker 9: we can separate out those two. And by the way,

475
00:24:28,800 --> 00:24:32,720
Speaker 9: I would take Biden over Trump with ninety four indictments

476
00:24:32,760 --> 00:24:35,880
Speaker 9: and facing criminal charges over the next year any day

477
00:24:35,920 --> 00:24:38,720
Speaker 9: of the week, even though he does have an age

478
00:24:38,760 --> 00:24:41,440
Speaker 9: issue that he's got to contend with and inflation as well.

479
00:24:42,480 --> 00:24:44,680
Speaker 2: I'm sure he would. Jeanie, that would have been news

480
00:24:44,680 --> 00:24:48,560
Speaker 2: if you said differently. And look, I appreciate the perspective

481
00:24:48,600 --> 00:24:50,520
Speaker 2: that you bring here. That's why you're both with us,

482
00:24:51,000 --> 00:24:53,119
Speaker 2: but this is not the layup clearly that a lot

483
00:24:53,160 --> 00:24:54,480
Speaker 2: of people have been making it out to be. To

484
00:24:54,520 --> 00:24:56,760
Speaker 2: Rick Davis's point, great conversation on the poll, and you

485
00:24:56,760 --> 00:24:58,680
Speaker 2: can read a lot more about it on the terminal,

486
00:24:58,680 --> 00:25:01,560
Speaker 2: And of course at Bloomberg we're doing this every month

487
00:25:01,600 --> 00:25:04,439
Speaker 2: with Morning consult next hour. In fact, we're gonna have

488
00:25:04,720 --> 00:25:07,480
Speaker 2: the deep dive on the numbers with Eli Yoakley for

489
00:25:07,600 --> 00:25:09,520
Speaker 2: Morning Consults. So I hope you be with us at

490
00:25:09,520 --> 00:25:11,159
Speaker 2: two o'clock Washington time for that.

491
00:25:14,880 --> 00:25:18,359
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us

492
00:25:18,400 --> 00:25:21,560
Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the

493
00:25:21,640 --> 00:25:24,760
Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen on

494
00:25:24,800 --> 00:25:26,800
Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts.

495
00:25:28,359 --> 00:25:32,040
Speaker 2: And so they will finally meet at last, President Biden.

496
00:25:32,200 --> 00:25:37,200
Speaker 2: President She next week, as the headline screams on the terminal,

497
00:25:37,240 --> 00:25:40,840
Speaker 2: Biden She set to meet November fifteen and the sidelines

498
00:25:40,960 --> 00:25:43,920
Speaker 2: of the Apex Summit. We knew that was a possibility,

499
00:25:43,920 --> 00:25:46,359
Speaker 2: but the confirmation here is important. God knows they have

500
00:25:46,400 --> 00:25:48,800
Speaker 2: been winding up to this one for a while. Let's

501
00:25:48,840 --> 00:25:51,640
Speaker 2: go all the way back to June. Remember that little

502
00:25:51,640 --> 00:25:54,679
Speaker 2: balloon that was floating over Montana. They were supposed to

503
00:25:54,680 --> 00:25:57,520
Speaker 2: meet around that time as well, and that certainly delayed things.

504
00:25:57,560 --> 00:25:59,760
Speaker 2: This was Joe Biden on the twenty second of June.

505
00:26:00,000 --> 00:26:08,320
Speaker 12: We had an incident that caused some confusion, you might say, President,

506
00:26:08,359 --> 00:26:11,240
Speaker 12: but the Secretary of Blincoln had a great trip to China.

507
00:26:11,960 --> 00:26:15,359
Speaker 12: I expect to be meeting with President She sometime in

508
00:26:15,400 --> 00:26:19,240
Speaker 12: the future a near term, and I don't think it's

509
00:26:19,280 --> 00:26:21,320
Speaker 12: had any real consequence.

510
00:26:22,760 --> 00:26:26,640
Speaker 2: We'll see about that. It's been a challenged relationship, as

511
00:26:26,640 --> 00:26:30,199
Speaker 2: we've discussed in great detail here on sound On and

512
00:26:30,240 --> 00:26:34,200
Speaker 2: across the platform here on Bloomberg. Think about what's happening

513
00:26:34,240 --> 00:26:38,439
Speaker 2: with the chips, with Nvidia, with Apple. Never mind the

514
00:26:38,520 --> 00:26:40,720
Speaker 2: drills that we've been seeing in the South China Sea,

515
00:26:40,800 --> 00:26:44,200
Speaker 2: the building of military installations around the global South, great

516
00:26:44,200 --> 00:26:49,040
Speaker 2: concern here in Washington about the way forward with China.

517
00:26:49,800 --> 00:26:53,439
Speaker 2: I haven't even mentioned Taiwan. Let's reassemble the panel for

518
00:26:53,480 --> 00:26:56,399
Speaker 2: their thoughts on this and the stakes ahead for this meeting.

519
00:26:56,560 --> 00:27:00,200
Speaker 2: Jeannie Schanzano and Rick Davis are with us a Bloomberg Pom'

520
00:27:00,200 --> 00:27:06,720
Speaker 2: six contributors. Rick November fifteen. I suspect the administration will

521
00:27:06,800 --> 00:27:11,080
Speaker 2: keep expectations as low as possible. Is this an ice

522
00:27:11,160 --> 00:27:14,679
Speaker 2: breaker at this point? Just a chance to be in

523
00:27:14,720 --> 00:27:17,920
Speaker 2: the same rum or? Can they get something done? Yeah,

524
00:27:17,960 --> 00:27:18,320
Speaker 2: there's no.

525
00:27:18,359 --> 00:27:20,520
Speaker 10: Question that they need to break the ice. I mean,

526
00:27:20,720 --> 00:27:24,359
Speaker 10: relations could not be more poor than they are today.

527
00:27:24,480 --> 00:27:27,359
Speaker 10: I mean most pundents would argue that we're in a

528
00:27:27,400 --> 00:27:31,360
Speaker 10: full fledged cold war with China, and so this may

529
00:27:31,400 --> 00:27:34,639
Speaker 10: be the first time that these two leaders get together

530
00:27:34,800 --> 00:27:38,880
Speaker 10: under those kinds of circumstances. And I would say that

531
00:27:39,320 --> 00:27:44,200
Speaker 10: I think the Biden administration's expectations are rightfully low. I mean,

532
00:27:44,400 --> 00:27:46,080
Speaker 10: it's pretty bad when you say one of the top

533
00:27:46,080 --> 00:27:47,240
Speaker 10: things you want to get out of it is the

534
00:27:47,280 --> 00:27:50,000
Speaker 10: ability to communicate. Nah, I don't get that. I mean,

535
00:27:50,080 --> 00:27:53,560
Speaker 10: like communicate what well? We want to have military conversations,

536
00:27:53,720 --> 00:27:55,840
Speaker 10: that's it. I mean, what happened with the Wigers? Where

537
00:27:55,880 --> 00:27:59,239
Speaker 10: are we with you know, military incursions in the South China? Say,

538
00:27:59,280 --> 00:28:01,320
Speaker 10: I mean, there are a lot of issues to discuss,

539
00:28:01,400 --> 00:28:04,800
Speaker 10: but just discussing as a priority seems a little weak.

540
00:28:06,040 --> 00:28:08,920
Speaker 2: So the goal again, and this has been the goal

541
00:28:08,960 --> 00:28:11,399
Speaker 2: in the past with these two Genie I suspect, is

542
00:28:11,440 --> 00:28:16,159
Speaker 2: to get to another meeting. This is someone Joe Biden

543
00:28:16,240 --> 00:28:18,920
Speaker 2: referred to as a dictator a couple of months ago.

544
00:28:18,960 --> 00:28:20,480
Speaker 2: How much can they get along here?

545
00:28:22,000 --> 00:28:24,920
Speaker 9: Yeah, it's going to be very interesting their first face

546
00:28:25,000 --> 00:28:28,400
Speaker 9: to face and over a year and relations have been

547
00:28:28,600 --> 00:28:32,240
Speaker 9: incredibly fraud and of course, due to your point, everything

548
00:28:32,280 --> 00:28:35,240
Speaker 9: that happens surrounding the balloon, and the way the United

549
00:28:35,280 --> 00:28:39,160
Speaker 9: States responded didn't help. And in the meantime, of course,

550
00:28:39,480 --> 00:28:42,320
Speaker 9: we have what's happening in the Middle East, and we

551
00:28:42,400 --> 00:28:45,840
Speaker 9: also have the continuation of what's happening in Europe, and

552
00:28:46,080 --> 00:28:49,760
Speaker 9: you find the United States and China deeply divided and

553
00:28:49,800 --> 00:28:52,720
Speaker 9: on both sides of those issues, and so there is

554
00:28:52,880 --> 00:28:56,160
Speaker 9: so much for them to discuss. It is frightening that

555
00:28:56,200 --> 00:28:59,320
Speaker 9: they have not done that in over a year. So

556
00:28:59,600 --> 00:29:03,920
Speaker 9: commune medication is critically important, but arguably it's not enough.

557
00:29:04,320 --> 00:29:06,720
Speaker 9: And I think the White House, you know, they are right,

558
00:29:06,880 --> 00:29:09,640
Speaker 9: they're not going to expect anything big out of this

559
00:29:09,800 --> 00:29:14,400
Speaker 9: policy wise, but hopefully they set up to your point

560
00:29:14,560 --> 00:29:19,560
Speaker 9: for increased communication and not just with people below the

561
00:29:19,600 --> 00:29:23,800
Speaker 9: two presidents, but with the leaders themselves, because we've seen

562
00:29:23,840 --> 00:29:27,120
Speaker 9: a lot of back and forth, particularly people from the

563
00:29:27,240 --> 00:29:31,360
Speaker 9: United States Blink and Yellen, others going over to China.

564
00:29:31,400 --> 00:29:34,880
Speaker 9: We need to have these leaders meeting in the way

565
00:29:34,920 --> 00:29:37,600
Speaker 9: they are next week, and we need to have them

566
00:29:37,640 --> 00:29:40,440
Speaker 9: addressing some of these critical issues that are dividing us.

567
00:29:40,520 --> 00:29:44,240
Speaker 9: As Yellen just said, these ties are critically important to

568
00:29:44,360 --> 00:29:46,920
Speaker 9: us and to the world, and they need to be

569
00:29:47,080 --> 00:29:49,920
Speaker 9: shored up in a substantive way going forward.

570
00:29:51,720 --> 00:29:54,000
Speaker 2: Rick, the Genie's Point's been over a year. Last time

571
00:29:54,280 --> 00:29:56,320
Speaker 2: these two sat down or spoke was at the G

572
00:29:56,520 --> 00:30:01,920
Speaker 2: twenty Bali. That was November of twenty twenty two. What

573
00:30:01,960 --> 00:30:04,280
Speaker 2: does it say to us that she is actually crossing

574
00:30:04,320 --> 00:30:06,040
Speaker 2: the ocean to come here this time, because we know

575
00:30:06,120 --> 00:30:10,160
Speaker 2: that he has hardly left the country since the beginning

576
00:30:10,160 --> 00:30:10,640
Speaker 2: of COVID.

577
00:30:11,680 --> 00:30:14,200
Speaker 10: Yeah, I would argue that it's probably a higher priority

578
00:30:14,240 --> 00:30:16,040
Speaker 10: for him these days than it is for us. You know,

579
00:30:16,160 --> 00:30:20,280
Speaker 10: failing economy, you know, all kinds of foreign policy issues,

580
00:30:20,600 --> 00:30:24,440
Speaker 10: barking at his doors, you know, failed relationships with Russia

581
00:30:24,520 --> 00:30:27,200
Speaker 10: over the Ukraine War. I mean, you know, he's got

582
00:30:27,200 --> 00:30:30,080
Speaker 10: some issues, and I think it's probably important for him

583
00:30:30,120 --> 00:30:32,520
Speaker 10: to try and turn the page on US relations because

584
00:30:32,800 --> 00:30:35,360
Speaker 10: any kind of thing that would upset trade relations with

585
00:30:35,520 --> 00:30:39,280
Speaker 10: US right now could have a really bad salutary effect

586
00:30:39,360 --> 00:30:42,280
Speaker 10: on Chinese economy, which he does not need right now.

587
00:30:43,280 --> 00:30:48,200
Speaker 2: Last time she was on US soil, Genie was twenty seventeen.

588
00:30:48,320 --> 00:30:53,120
Speaker 2: Remember the setting mar A Lago. How does Joe Biden

589
00:30:53,240 --> 00:30:56,240
Speaker 2: follow up on the venue here? We haven't been told

590
00:30:56,360 --> 00:30:59,040
Speaker 2: where exactly they will meet other than the San Francisco

591
00:30:59,120 --> 00:31:00,480
Speaker 2: Bay Area.

592
00:31:01,600 --> 00:31:05,240
Speaker 9: Yeah, it will not match the opulence of mar A Lago.

593
00:31:05,440 --> 00:31:08,440
Speaker 9: There will be no Donald Trump portrait in the room.

594
00:31:09,320 --> 00:31:13,520
Speaker 9: You know, he's not going to Rehobeth Beach. But it'll

595
00:31:13,560 --> 00:31:18,240
Speaker 9: be substantive. Nonetheless, San Francisco is a beautiful place to be.

596
00:31:18,360 --> 00:31:20,800
Speaker 9: They can find a great venue. But I think the

597
00:31:20,800 --> 00:31:23,720
Speaker 9: most important thing. I mean, it's stunning to think twenty

598
00:31:23,800 --> 00:31:27,200
Speaker 9: seventeen before most people in the United States were even

599
00:31:27,240 --> 00:31:30,120
Speaker 9: thinking about or ever heard about COVID, how much has

600
00:31:30,200 --> 00:31:33,000
Speaker 9: happened in the world. And that's why this meeting is

601
00:31:33,040 --> 00:31:36,719
Speaker 9: so important. And given how this was questionable whether this

602
00:31:36,760 --> 00:31:39,600
Speaker 9: would in fact take place, the fact that we hear

603
00:31:39,680 --> 00:31:43,040
Speaker 9: it will definitely take place is critically important.

604
00:31:43,040 --> 00:31:44,040
Speaker 2: Mari A Lago or not.

605
00:31:44,080 --> 00:31:47,040
Speaker 9: They'll have to, you know, go without Donald Trump being

606
00:31:47,040 --> 00:31:49,160
Speaker 9: the DJ at mar A Lago for a little bit.

607
00:31:50,680 --> 00:31:53,200
Speaker 2: Come on, that's not fun, Rick, I've only got thirty

608
00:31:53,240 --> 00:31:56,120
Speaker 2: seconds here. But would you contrast mar A Lago and

609
00:31:56,160 --> 00:31:59,800
Speaker 2: make this the most stark setting possible, maybe serve you know,

610
00:32:00,080 --> 00:32:01,440
Speaker 2: Upway sandwiches or something.

611
00:32:02,480 --> 00:32:05,360
Speaker 10: I don't think you have to downplay it that much,

612
00:32:05,400 --> 00:32:07,920
Speaker 10: but just being in San Francisco is pretty stark.

613
00:32:07,960 --> 00:32:10,120
Speaker 2: It's not like that city at the top of its game.

614
00:32:10,640 --> 00:32:16,040
Speaker 2: You know, hopefully Jack, I was waiting for it.

615
00:32:17,160 --> 00:32:20,560
Speaker 1: You're listening to The Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the

616
00:32:20,600 --> 00:32:23,320
Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern.

617
00:32:23,120 --> 00:32:26,560
Speaker 7: On Bloomberg Radio, the tune in alf Bloomberg dot Com, and.

618
00:32:26,520 --> 00:32:27,880
Speaker 6: The Bloomberg Business app.

619
00:32:28,000 --> 00:32:30,840
Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

620
00:32:30,880 --> 00:32:35,360
Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

621
00:32:37,640 --> 00:32:41,000
Speaker 2: Welcome to our two of Bloomberg Sound Gone. Welcome to Friday.

622
00:32:41,960 --> 00:32:43,480
Speaker 2: It was a short I had a three day work

623
00:32:43,600 --> 00:32:46,440
Speaker 2: a grueling three day work week, and I don't know, Kaylee,

624
00:32:46,480 --> 00:32:49,000
Speaker 2: I the shorter the weeks are, the longer they feel.

625
00:32:49,000 --> 00:32:49,880
Speaker 2: I'll never understand it.

626
00:32:49,960 --> 00:32:50,680
Speaker 5: I agree with that.

627
00:32:50,720 --> 00:32:53,400
Speaker 13: But also every single week feels like a month or

628
00:32:53,400 --> 00:32:55,600
Speaker 13: two in and of itself, So you know, time means

629
00:32:55,640 --> 00:32:56,920
Speaker 13: nothing to me anymore.

630
00:32:56,560 --> 00:32:58,520
Speaker 2: Well, especially when you're Kaylee Lines and your host four

631
00:32:58,560 --> 00:33:00,080
Speaker 2: shows today and do all that while you're.

632
00:33:00,320 --> 00:33:02,520
Speaker 14: But hey, welcome to Friday. It's good to see it.

633
00:33:02,600 --> 00:33:03,960
Speaker 14: We have new polling data.

634
00:33:04,120 --> 00:33:06,920
Speaker 2: Yes, pretty fresh too. This broke on balance of power

635
00:33:07,120 --> 00:33:10,040
Speaker 2: less than what was a twelve something twenty.

636
00:33:09,880 --> 00:33:11,280
Speaker 13: Four hours of twenty one hours ago.

637
00:33:11,360 --> 00:33:11,680
Speaker 6: Thank you.

638
00:33:12,640 --> 00:33:14,440
Speaker 2: And it is making a dent here because we spend

639
00:33:14,440 --> 00:33:16,560
Speaker 2: a lot of time obsessing over national polls that frankly

640
00:33:16,600 --> 00:33:18,920
Speaker 2: don't mean a lot. And boy, when you look at

641
00:33:18,920 --> 00:33:20,560
Speaker 2: the swing states here, we did this a month ago.

642
00:33:20,600 --> 00:33:22,920
Speaker 2: This is the update now, whether it's Arizona or Georgia,

643
00:33:22,960 --> 00:33:26,560
Speaker 2: we're looking at some real struggles for Joe Biden, not

644
00:33:26,600 --> 00:33:28,680
Speaker 2: only on the horse race, but specifically when it comes

645
00:33:28,680 --> 00:33:30,880
Speaker 2: to issues they're arguing about. We talk about it every day.

646
00:33:31,560 --> 00:33:34,480
Speaker 2: Funding for Israel and Ukraine, whether that would be tied

647
00:33:34,520 --> 00:33:37,600
Speaker 2: with border funding. Swing state voters clear they care much

648
00:33:37,600 --> 00:33:40,479
Speaker 2: more about the security at our border than they do

649
00:33:40,480 --> 00:33:41,920
Speaker 2: anything going on the other side of the world.

650
00:33:42,280 --> 00:33:44,640
Speaker 13: Yeah, that's what the poll show. Sixty eight percent of

651
00:33:44,680 --> 00:33:47,320
Speaker 13: voters in these swing states would rather fund the border

652
00:33:47,720 --> 00:33:50,960
Speaker 13: or are supportive of funding border security on the border

653
00:33:50,960 --> 00:33:54,520
Speaker 13: with US in Mexico VERSUS, say, Israel or Ukraine. Funding.

654
00:33:54,840 --> 00:33:58,760
Speaker 13: That is problematic potentially for a president who has really

655
00:33:58,800 --> 00:34:02,600
Speaker 13: tried to be a America's back president, a foreign policy president,

656
00:34:02,600 --> 00:34:05,120
Speaker 13: a globalist in a way that is quite opposite to

657
00:34:05,200 --> 00:34:07,520
Speaker 13: the former president who is much more of an isolationist.

658
00:34:07,520 --> 00:34:10,560
Speaker 13: In Donald Trump, and yet this poll also shows that

659
00:34:10,640 --> 00:34:12,920
Speaker 13: they trust Trump more than Biden on a lot of

660
00:34:12,920 --> 00:34:14,120
Speaker 13: these foreign policy issues.

661
00:34:14,480 --> 00:34:14,719
Speaker 6: Yes.

662
00:34:15,239 --> 00:34:17,200
Speaker 2: And in terms of the horse race, are we going

663
00:34:17,280 --> 00:34:20,319
Speaker 2: to finally dispel of this idea that Donald Trump is

664
00:34:20,320 --> 00:34:23,520
Speaker 2: the one man Joe Biden can definitely beat and not

665
00:34:23,600 --> 00:34:25,800
Speaker 2: worry so much about who might come in second, Because

666
00:34:26,160 --> 00:34:28,839
Speaker 2: when you put these together as an aggregate's forty seven

667
00:34:28,960 --> 00:34:32,759
Speaker 2: forty one, a wider gap that Donald Trump holds over

668
00:34:32,920 --> 00:34:34,279
Speaker 2: Joe Biden than even a month ago.

669
00:34:34,560 --> 00:34:37,480
Speaker 13: Yes, and I think given the consistency here that it's

670
00:34:37,480 --> 00:34:39,959
Speaker 13: showing up not just in this Bloomberg Morning Consult poll,

671
00:34:39,960 --> 00:34:42,600
Speaker 13: but in a lot of other polling as well. I

672
00:34:42,640 --> 00:34:45,279
Speaker 13: think that notion might have to be put to bed,

673
00:34:45,280 --> 00:34:46,920
Speaker 13: at least for the time being, given what we are

674
00:34:46,960 --> 00:34:49,160
Speaker 13: seeing consistently in voters' opinions.

675
00:34:49,760 --> 00:34:51,680
Speaker 2: So we set the table here, let's bring in the experts.

676
00:34:51,680 --> 00:34:54,840
Speaker 2: Eli Yoakley is with US political analyst at Morning Consult. Eli,

677
00:34:54,880 --> 00:34:57,160
Speaker 2: welcome back here in Washington at the table with US

678
00:34:57,239 --> 00:35:00,719
Speaker 2: Greg Reecordy, Bloomberg Politics reporter. It's great have you both here.

679
00:35:00,760 --> 00:35:04,280
Speaker 2: Gregory was distilling the numbers on the terminal. Eli helped

680
00:35:04,320 --> 00:35:07,480
Speaker 2: to generate them to begin with with our partners at

681
00:35:07,520 --> 00:35:10,000
Speaker 2: morning consult and Eli, I'll start, I guess with that

682
00:35:10,160 --> 00:35:12,760
Speaker 2: very same question. There was some argument about it last

683
00:35:12,800 --> 00:35:17,560
Speaker 2: hour here on Bloomberg and Republicans and Democrats clearly don't

684
00:35:17,600 --> 00:35:23,520
Speaker 2: agree on this. But Joe Biden can't claim that Donald

685
00:35:23,560 --> 00:35:26,000
Speaker 2: Trump is the one person he can beat any longer?

686
00:35:26,040 --> 00:35:26,360
Speaker 2: Can he?

687
00:35:27,760 --> 00:35:30,920
Speaker 15: This race is neck and neck, probably probably not. I mean,

688
00:35:30,920 --> 00:35:33,960
Speaker 15: even when you add in the independent candidate's like RFK

689
00:35:34,200 --> 00:35:36,400
Speaker 15: Junior and Cornell West, the race is a head to

690
00:35:36,440 --> 00:35:40,120
Speaker 15: head contest in most of these states. Clearly, Joe Biden

691
00:35:40,239 --> 00:35:44,080
Speaker 15: is struggling with the kinds of voters who voted for

692
00:35:44,200 --> 00:35:46,440
Speaker 15: him in twenty twenty. I mean, one of the most

693
00:35:46,600 --> 00:35:49,880
Speaker 15: striking things in this survey is his twenty twenty voters

694
00:35:50,080 --> 00:35:52,400
Speaker 15: are less likely to say they support him today than

695
00:35:52,480 --> 00:35:54,960
Speaker 15: Donald Trump's are. He has a problem with his Democratic

696
00:35:55,040 --> 00:35:57,400
Speaker 15: base that is weighing him down in all sorts of questions.

697
00:35:59,280 --> 00:36:01,560
Speaker 13: Well, and Gregory, that might not be his only problem.

698
00:36:01,560 --> 00:36:03,239
Speaker 13: I know you spent a lot of time buried in

699
00:36:03,280 --> 00:36:05,640
Speaker 13: this data trying to distill it, and isn't it what

700
00:36:05,680 --> 00:36:08,480
Speaker 13: it shows that things that the president is spending a

701
00:36:08,480 --> 00:36:11,040
Speaker 13: lot of his energy on say, meeting with Shijhin Ping

702
00:36:11,200 --> 00:36:14,600
Speaker 13: next week, pushing for funding for Israel and Ukraine are

703
00:36:14,680 --> 00:36:17,880
Speaker 13: just not the things that voters care as much about.

704
00:36:18,080 --> 00:36:21,120
Speaker 16: Yeah, as president, you can't always pick your issues that

705
00:36:21,239 --> 00:36:24,640
Speaker 16: come to you, right, the buck stops here, and when

706
00:36:24,680 --> 00:36:27,080
Speaker 16: it comes to issues like the Israel Hamas War or

707
00:36:27,120 --> 00:36:30,520
Speaker 16: the Ukraine Russian War, that's an issue that the president's

708
00:36:30,520 --> 00:36:33,040
Speaker 16: got to deal with. When presidents do have a choice,

709
00:36:33,200 --> 00:36:35,120
Speaker 16: they generally like to wait until their second terms to

710
00:36:35,160 --> 00:36:37,759
Speaker 16: take on foreign policy. It's a legacy project because they've

711
00:36:37,760 --> 00:36:40,839
Speaker 16: already survived that re election effort. And here you have

712
00:36:40,960 --> 00:36:43,279
Speaker 16: a President Biden being forced to deal with issues on

713
00:36:43,320 --> 00:36:46,399
Speaker 16: the world stage. While US voters, especially in these swing

714
00:36:46,440 --> 00:36:50,239
Speaker 16: states that we've surveyed, are still very much focused on

715
00:36:50,239 --> 00:36:53,840
Speaker 16: the economy. Inflation is still the number one issue within

716
00:36:53,920 --> 00:36:59,439
Speaker 16: that economy issue group, and foreign affairs ranks way down

717
00:36:59,719 --> 00:37:03,160
Speaker 16: the of issues that voters care most about.

718
00:37:04,440 --> 00:37:07,520
Speaker 2: You talk about border security, how about when it comes

719
00:37:07,560 --> 00:37:10,160
Speaker 2: to the economy, this is still the overriding issue that's

720
00:37:10,160 --> 00:37:11,480
Speaker 2: going to decide this selection, is it not?

721
00:37:12,239 --> 00:37:15,480
Speaker 16: Look, the economy is always the issue. It's become a

722
00:37:15,480 --> 00:37:19,719
Speaker 16: political cliche, the old was it? Jim Carvill or George Stephanopolois,

723
00:37:19,800 --> 00:37:24,360
Speaker 16: James Cargo. It's the economy stupid, and it's still the

724
00:37:24,360 --> 00:37:30,160
Speaker 16: economy stupid. It's almost absolutely and especially when times are bad.

725
00:37:30,200 --> 00:37:33,640
Speaker 16: When when times are good, people have the luxury more

726
00:37:33,719 --> 00:37:37,080
Speaker 16: so to argue about social issues and foreign policy and

727
00:37:37,160 --> 00:37:39,560
Speaker 16: other things. When the economy is bad, it's the only issue.

728
00:37:39,680 --> 00:37:43,480
Speaker 16: And voters are telling us that the economy is bad. Now,

729
00:37:43,760 --> 00:37:45,960
Speaker 16: we might look at an economic indicators and say, well,

730
00:37:46,000 --> 00:37:50,000
Speaker 16: look that the the unappoyment rate is still near historic lows.

731
00:37:50,120 --> 00:37:53,320
Speaker 16: The inflation rate is coming down now. It was very high,

732
00:37:53,360 --> 00:37:56,920
Speaker 16: but it's on a downward trajectory. Voters aren't feeling that

733
00:37:57,000 --> 00:37:59,520
Speaker 16: quite yet. They still feel like this is an economy

734
00:37:59,520 --> 00:38:03,360
Speaker 16: that hasn't quite recovered from the pandemic. And they're blaming

735
00:38:03,400 --> 00:38:05,520
Speaker 16: Joe Biden. Why because he's the president of United States.

736
00:38:05,520 --> 00:38:07,880
Speaker 16: When you're the president of the United States, whether you cause

737
00:38:08,000 --> 00:38:10,160
Speaker 16: the issue or not, you're accountable for fixing it.

738
00:38:10,200 --> 00:38:12,279
Speaker 2: But you made the point as well that if the

739
00:38:12,320 --> 00:38:15,600
Speaker 2: economy was bad, we wouldn't probably be obsessing over all

740
00:38:15,600 --> 00:38:18,120
Speaker 2: these other issues that kayley than its own indicator.

741
00:38:18,760 --> 00:38:21,080
Speaker 13: I guess that makes sense to you, Gregory.

742
00:38:22,400 --> 00:38:24,920
Speaker 14: I'm sorry, did I twist that around. Yeah, yeah, that

743
00:38:25,080 --> 00:38:29,040
Speaker 14: is good. Yes, yes, we can.

744
00:38:28,880 --> 00:38:30,520
Speaker 2: Get upset about a lot of things. But if it's

745
00:38:30,560 --> 00:38:34,160
Speaker 2: not so, it just speaks to the issues that we're

746
00:38:34,160 --> 00:38:35,160
Speaker 2: discussing in this poll.

747
00:38:35,239 --> 00:38:35,439
Speaker 6: Yeah.

748
00:38:35,680 --> 00:38:37,719
Speaker 16: Well, so one of the things that you're hearing from

749
00:38:37,719 --> 00:38:40,040
Speaker 16: the Biden campaign in the White House is an emphasis

750
00:38:40,040 --> 00:38:42,880
Speaker 16: on issues like abortion. We saw that this week with

751
00:38:43,040 --> 00:38:48,040
Speaker 16: the elections in Virginia and Ohio that in some ways

752
00:38:48,120 --> 00:38:52,839
Speaker 16: were considered a referendum on that issue. And in those

753
00:38:52,880 --> 00:38:56,520
Speaker 16: places where abortion was on the ballot, either literally or

754
00:38:56,560 --> 00:39:01,120
Speaker 16: by proxy, Democrats did very well. And so yes, we're

755
00:39:01,160 --> 00:39:04,080
Speaker 16: going to see in the next year Joe Biden continuing

756
00:39:04,160 --> 00:39:06,160
Speaker 16: to go back to that issue because it is one

757
00:39:06,160 --> 00:39:08,000
Speaker 16: that motivates Democratic voters.

758
00:39:08,360 --> 00:39:10,359
Speaker 13: Eli to bring you back in the conversation here, we're

759
00:39:10,360 --> 00:39:13,600
Speaker 13: talking about what motivates Democratic voters and Republican voters. And

760
00:39:13,640 --> 00:39:15,239
Speaker 13: of course we're looking at the poll here and what

761
00:39:15,480 --> 00:39:18,520
Speaker 13: is presumed to be who thet the tickets on either

762
00:39:18,560 --> 00:39:19,759
Speaker 13: side is going to be. It's going to be Donald

763
00:39:19,800 --> 00:39:23,439
Speaker 13: Trump versus Joe Biden. And yet there are room there

764
00:39:23,480 --> 00:39:25,560
Speaker 13: is room here for third parties, and that was evident

765
00:39:25,640 --> 00:39:28,920
Speaker 13: in this poll as well. RFK Junior getting what ten percent?

766
00:39:29,880 --> 00:39:31,920
Speaker 13: Could that get even more disruptive potentially.

767
00:39:33,320 --> 00:39:35,040
Speaker 15: I mean, I think some of that is people just

768
00:39:35,280 --> 00:39:39,680
Speaker 15: being unhappy with the candidates they have right now. I mean,

769
00:39:39,719 --> 00:39:42,600
Speaker 15: a good chunk of voters like ten percent suppor RFK

770
00:39:42,800 --> 00:39:46,200
Speaker 15: another shares, so I think back somebody else. Both sides

771
00:39:46,239 --> 00:39:48,920
Speaker 15: of the aisle are not thrilled about their nominees, despite

772
00:39:48,920 --> 00:39:51,160
Speaker 15: the fact that Joe Biden and Donald Trump lead their

773
00:39:51,200 --> 00:39:56,000
Speaker 15: respective primaries by a lot. But you know, currently there

774
00:39:56,040 --> 00:39:59,960
Speaker 15: is some unease in the elector about re elevating these people.

775
00:40:00,120 --> 00:40:01,600
Speaker 15: But at the end of the day, I mean, this

776
00:40:01,680 --> 00:40:05,480
Speaker 15: contest between the two candidates the American people have is

777
00:40:05,480 --> 00:40:07,239
Speaker 15: going to be a close one, and I think that

778
00:40:07,239 --> 00:40:08,800
Speaker 15: the survey proves that.

779
00:40:11,239 --> 00:40:13,920
Speaker 2: I'm spending some time with Eli Yoakley at morning consulting

780
00:40:14,000 --> 00:40:18,520
Speaker 2: Gregory Cordy here at Bloomberg looking over our polling results.

781
00:40:18,560 --> 00:40:23,680
Speaker 2: Here Genie Shanzino Eli in our last hour, our Democratic

782
00:40:23,760 --> 00:40:26,760
Speaker 2: analyst who is an expert on polling, a political science professor,

783
00:40:26,880 --> 00:40:30,440
Speaker 2: took some issue with this idea of producing an aggregate

784
00:40:30,520 --> 00:40:33,000
Speaker 2: number from swing states, many of which were within the

785
00:40:33,000 --> 00:40:35,880
Speaker 2: margin of error. Is there some truth to that?

786
00:40:37,560 --> 00:40:40,480
Speaker 15: I mean, maybe, but we look at the specific states

787
00:40:40,480 --> 00:40:42,919
Speaker 15: and the numbers are all pretty similar. I mean, both

788
00:40:43,120 --> 00:40:45,680
Speaker 15: Joe Biden in each of the states that we surveyed

789
00:40:46,360 --> 00:40:48,279
Speaker 15: does not have voters trust to hay and handle a

790
00:40:48,360 --> 00:40:51,760
Speaker 15: range of issues. The economy is clearly the top issue.

791
00:40:52,160 --> 00:40:55,640
Speaker 15: On the Israel issue ranks pretty low in all of

792
00:40:55,640 --> 00:40:58,279
Speaker 15: the states, and Joe Biden is almost losing in most

793
00:40:58,280 --> 00:40:58,960
Speaker 15: of these states.

794
00:41:00,920 --> 00:41:03,879
Speaker 13: And to that point, Gregory on Israel ranking very low.

795
00:41:03,920 --> 00:41:07,239
Speaker 13: I believe three percent of those that were surveyed said

796
00:41:07,239 --> 00:41:09,640
Speaker 13: that that was a top issue for them going into

797
00:41:09,680 --> 00:41:13,600
Speaker 13: this election, especially given the ongoing conversations on Capitol Hill

798
00:41:13,640 --> 00:41:15,960
Speaker 13: about how Israel should be funded, what conditions may be

799
00:41:16,040 --> 00:41:18,080
Speaker 13: tied to it, whether or not Ukraine should continue to

800
00:41:18,080 --> 00:41:21,319
Speaker 13: get funding at all. Results like these theoretically could give

801
00:41:21,400 --> 00:41:24,960
Speaker 13: members of Congress some cover in not supporting that.

802
00:41:25,120 --> 00:41:25,359
Speaker 8: Right.

803
00:41:26,000 --> 00:41:30,920
Speaker 16: Yeah, So this is These numbers on Israel, on Ukraine,

804
00:41:31,000 --> 00:41:34,400
Speaker 16: on the border complicate Joe Biden's life in two ways.

805
00:41:34,840 --> 00:41:36,520
Speaker 16: One is, he's trying to get this one hundred and

806
00:41:36,560 --> 00:41:39,960
Speaker 16: six billion dollars supplemental spending bill through Congress, and he's

807
00:41:40,000 --> 00:41:41,719
Speaker 16: doing that by trying to give a little bit to

808
00:41:41,719 --> 00:41:45,920
Speaker 16: everybody he wants to include Ukraine AID, Israel AID, and

809
00:41:46,000 --> 00:41:50,560
Speaker 16: the border. And there are majorities, or at least pluralities

810
00:41:50,600 --> 00:41:54,279
Speaker 16: of Americans in these swing states that support each one

811
00:41:54,280 --> 00:41:57,560
Speaker 16: of those, but sometimes they're different majorities in each one

812
00:41:57,600 --> 00:42:00,680
Speaker 16: of these areas. So you have republic are very much

813
00:42:00,719 --> 00:42:03,960
Speaker 16: split over Ukraine. Republicans very much want to support Israel,

814
00:42:04,239 --> 00:42:07,880
Speaker 16: but on Israel, that's where Biden starts to lose some

815
00:42:07,960 --> 00:42:10,839
Speaker 16: of his own Democratic base. The more progressive you are,

816
00:42:11,120 --> 00:42:17,080
Speaker 16: the younger you are, some minority groups are disproportionately opposed

817
00:42:17,160 --> 00:42:21,480
Speaker 16: to supporting Israel, and Biden thinks he should be doing

818
00:42:21,520 --> 00:42:24,480
Speaker 16: more to help civilians in Gaza. And so if those

819
00:42:24,560 --> 00:42:27,600
Speaker 16: voters are disillusioned by Biden going into twenty twenty four,

820
00:42:27,800 --> 00:42:29,719
Speaker 16: they're not going to vote for Trump, but maybe they

821
00:42:29,760 --> 00:42:34,560
Speaker 16: stay home Blan. It's got a difficult balancing act here,

822
00:42:34,640 --> 00:42:37,160
Speaker 16: especially in college campuses. This is a big issue as we've.

823
00:42:37,000 --> 00:42:40,240
Speaker 2: Seen does it grease the skids though ELI on getting

824
00:42:40,320 --> 00:42:43,960
Speaker 2: Ukraine funding passed. If it needs to come with border

825
00:42:44,040 --> 00:42:48,800
Speaker 2: security funding, more Democrats might be on board with this idea,

826
00:42:48,840 --> 00:42:50,040
Speaker 2: and they see numbers like these.

827
00:42:51,520 --> 00:42:55,520
Speaker 15: I mean, funding the border is very popular across party lines.

828
00:42:55,560 --> 00:42:57,200
Speaker 15: This is an issue that kind of a units to

829
00:42:57,239 --> 00:43:00,800
Speaker 15: the American people, and it's one that President and performed

830
00:43:01,040 --> 00:43:03,360
Speaker 15: very very poorly on. He needs to get a border

831
00:43:03,680 --> 00:43:06,279
Speaker 15: win on the immigration issue. If he can keep these

832
00:43:06,280 --> 00:43:09,839
Speaker 15: things together, perhaps that could work. The problem is this

833
00:43:09,920 --> 00:43:14,000
Speaker 15: Ukraine issue is now politically device of Republicans on Capitol

834
00:43:14,080 --> 00:43:17,239
Speaker 15: Hill see no real motivation to work with him on this,

835
00:43:17,360 --> 00:43:19,720
Speaker 15: at least in the House. He's also some Senate Republicans

836
00:43:19,760 --> 00:43:21,279
Speaker 15: are with him, but this is going to be a

837
00:43:21,320 --> 00:43:23,719
Speaker 15: big lift on Capitol Hill. And this survey, I think

838
00:43:23,800 --> 00:43:26,759
Speaker 15: suggests that focusing on Israel and the word may be

839
00:43:26,920 --> 00:43:28,600
Speaker 15: the path forward for now.

840
00:43:30,600 --> 00:43:31,960
Speaker 13: And of course we have to keep in mind that

841
00:43:32,000 --> 00:43:34,319
Speaker 13: this survey was completed as it was set to be

842
00:43:34,360 --> 00:43:37,760
Speaker 13: released before we got the news that Senator Joe Manchin

843
00:43:37,800 --> 00:43:41,359
Speaker 13: is not seeking reelection in twenty twenty four. Obviously could

844
00:43:41,400 --> 00:43:43,520
Speaker 13: be problematic for the Democratic Party in terms of keeping

845
00:43:43,560 --> 00:43:46,239
Speaker 13: a majority in the Senate as that seat may very

846
00:43:46,239 --> 00:43:48,600
Speaker 13: well go to a Republican. It shifts the math. But

847
00:43:48,680 --> 00:43:51,239
Speaker 13: also this idea that okay, maybe we really are going

848
00:43:51,239 --> 00:43:53,720
Speaker 13: to get a unity ticket from No Labels and maybe

849
00:43:53,840 --> 00:43:56,160
Speaker 13: very well we could see Joe Manchin on it. ELI

850
00:43:56,200 --> 00:44:00,399
Speaker 13: has Morning Consul doesn't work on what no they Boles

851
00:44:00,400 --> 00:44:03,120
Speaker 13: could actually see in terms of support if they were

852
00:44:03,160 --> 00:44:04,360
Speaker 13: to decide to run a candidate.

853
00:44:05,520 --> 00:44:07,640
Speaker 15: I think that might be showing up in some of

854
00:44:07,680 --> 00:44:10,000
Speaker 15: the someone else we have here. There's clearly a chunk

855
00:44:10,000 --> 00:44:12,160
Speaker 15: of the electorate that is open to it. I think

856
00:44:12,160 --> 00:44:14,439
Speaker 15: the way we've thought about it more is thinking about

857
00:44:14,440 --> 00:44:17,680
Speaker 15: the Senate map. I mean, Joe Manch, Joe Mansion leaving

858
00:44:17,800 --> 00:44:22,080
Speaker 15: the Senate makes a huge lift for Democrats who trying

859
00:44:22,080 --> 00:44:24,520
Speaker 15: to move forward with a Senate majority, and they're on

860
00:44:24,719 --> 00:44:27,719
Speaker 15: tough turf in all of the competitive states right now.

861
00:44:27,800 --> 00:44:31,799
Speaker 15: Joe Manchin was losing his popularity in West Virginia. The

862
00:44:31,840 --> 00:44:34,640
Speaker 15: Republican nominee is one of the most popular governors. The

863
00:44:34,680 --> 00:44:36,960
Speaker 15: may is going to be the Republican nominee probably is

864
00:44:36,960 --> 00:44:39,160
Speaker 15: one of the most popular governors in Thery. He was

865
00:44:39,160 --> 00:44:41,120
Speaker 15: probably going to lose that race, and so this is

866
00:44:41,160 --> 00:44:43,840
Speaker 15: going to be a big lift for Senate Democrats moving forward.

867
00:44:44,880 --> 00:44:47,360
Speaker 2: You went there, Kayley, so let's go there to the

868
00:44:47,440 --> 00:44:49,720
Speaker 2: video Joe Manchin from yesterday.

869
00:44:49,760 --> 00:44:52,200
Speaker 17: I will not be running for reelection to the United

870
00:44:52,239 --> 00:44:55,680
Speaker 17: States Senate, but what I will be doing is traveling

871
00:44:55,719 --> 00:44:58,560
Speaker 17: the country and speaking out to see if there is

872
00:44:58,600 --> 00:45:01,680
Speaker 17: an interest in creating a move to mobilize the middle

873
00:45:02,040 --> 00:45:06,640
Speaker 17: and bring Americans together, a.

874
00:45:06,680 --> 00:45:09,920
Speaker 2: Movement to mobilize the middle, Gregory, what would that look like.

875
00:45:11,640 --> 00:45:16,120
Speaker 16: Here's the issue with that is that there's there's no

876
00:45:16,239 --> 00:45:17,280
Speaker 16: money in moderation.

877
00:45:17,600 --> 00:45:17,759
Speaker 6: Right.

878
00:45:18,400 --> 00:45:22,400
Speaker 16: Joe Manchin gets some of the lowest proportions of small

879
00:45:22,440 --> 00:45:26,360
Speaker 16: dollar donors to his Senate campaign of any senator in

880
00:45:26,400 --> 00:45:29,680
Speaker 16: the country. Because if you're a small donor, dollar donor,

881
00:45:29,719 --> 00:45:31,560
Speaker 16: what do you get excited about? You get excited about

882
00:45:31,600 --> 00:45:35,200
Speaker 16: Ted Cruz or Elizabeth Warren. There's not a lot of

883
00:45:35,400 --> 00:45:37,799
Speaker 16: passion in the middle. And that's that's one of the

884
00:45:37,800 --> 00:45:41,040
Speaker 16: big challenges that no labels is going to have that

885
00:45:41,239 --> 00:45:43,719
Speaker 16: Joe Mansion's going to have. Maybe it's Larry Hogan or

886
00:45:43,719 --> 00:45:47,399
Speaker 16: a Chris san Unu, a moderate Republican mid Romney. Who

887
00:45:47,400 --> 00:45:49,399
Speaker 16: are the people who are going to go out and

888
00:45:49,440 --> 00:45:53,239
Speaker 16: circulate signatures on a petition to get Joe Manchin on

889
00:45:53,280 --> 00:45:57,080
Speaker 16: the ballot in fifty states. I'm sure they exist. But

890
00:45:57,680 --> 00:46:00,080
Speaker 16: you know, look, we have a two party system, and

891
00:46:00,239 --> 00:46:03,080
Speaker 16: that under our system, you win a party primary, you

892
00:46:03,120 --> 00:46:06,600
Speaker 16: automatically advanced to fifty state ballots. When you're an independent

893
00:46:06,920 --> 00:46:09,440
Speaker 16: like Joe Manchin. You've got to start that process from scratch,

894
00:46:09,560 --> 00:46:11,600
Speaker 16: and it's getting late in the game. Ross pro did it.

895
00:46:11,640 --> 00:46:14,160
Speaker 16: He was the last person to do it. And when

896
00:46:14,160 --> 00:46:17,200
Speaker 16: it seems to think the highest watermark for these independent

897
00:46:17,239 --> 00:46:20,240
Speaker 16: and third party candidates that we've seen in thirty years,

898
00:46:20,800 --> 00:46:23,120
Speaker 16: but it's still it's still quite the left.

899
00:46:23,120 --> 00:46:26,040
Speaker 2: You're going with Mitt Romney, huh mansion out there. I mean,

900
00:46:26,040 --> 00:46:27,920
Speaker 2: you're not the first to suggest it. They put up

901
00:46:27,920 --> 00:46:31,000
Speaker 2: that debt commission build together yesterday, same day he made

902
00:46:31,080 --> 00:46:34,560
Speaker 2: the announcement. Eli Yoakley at Morning Console. Thank you Eli,

903
00:46:34,600 --> 00:46:37,680
Speaker 2: Thanks as always to Greg recording with Kaylee Lions. I'm

904
00:46:37,719 --> 00:46:39,160
Speaker 2: Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg.

905
00:46:42,600 --> 00:46:45,960
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the

906
00:46:46,000 --> 00:46:48,719
Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern on.

907
00:46:48,760 --> 00:46:52,120
Speaker 7: Bloomberg Radio, the tune in alf, Bloomberg dot Com.

908
00:46:51,800 --> 00:46:53,280
Speaker 6: And the Bloomberg Business App.

909
00:46:53,400 --> 00:46:56,279
Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

910
00:46:56,280 --> 00:47:00,560
Speaker 1: flagship New York station Just Say Alexa, playing Bloomberg.

911
00:47:02,600 --> 00:47:08,319
Speaker 2: Live from Washington, where the blockade against military promotions is

912
00:47:08,360 --> 00:47:10,720
Speaker 2: still in place and it has been for nine months.

913
00:47:10,719 --> 00:47:13,520
Speaker 2: I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lines and Kaylee This of

914
00:47:13,520 --> 00:47:18,240
Speaker 2: course comes down to one man, a loan senator, the coach,

915
00:47:19,440 --> 00:47:23,359
Speaker 2: Tommy Tubberville, the Senator from Alabama. He's nine months into

916
00:47:23,400 --> 00:47:25,319
Speaker 2: this thing, and we're looking at somewhere in the area

917
00:47:25,320 --> 00:47:28,440
Speaker 2: of three hundred and seventy military promotions that are on

918
00:47:28,560 --> 00:47:32,000
Speaker 2: ice in his protest of the abortion travel policy at

919
00:47:32,000 --> 00:47:32,520
Speaker 2: the Pentagon.

920
00:47:32,840 --> 00:47:35,520
Speaker 13: Yeah, a policy that has affected a much smaller number

921
00:47:36,760 --> 00:47:39,440
Speaker 13: than the number of military members of the military who

922
00:47:39,480 --> 00:47:41,560
Speaker 13: had their promotions held up at this point. So it

923
00:47:41,560 --> 00:47:44,080
Speaker 13: becomes a question of where the off ramp is and

924
00:47:44,120 --> 00:47:46,840
Speaker 13: at what point we ultimately reach it. There was obviously

925
00:47:47,280 --> 00:47:49,640
Speaker 13: a meeting within the Republicans in the Senate earlier this

926
00:47:49,680 --> 00:47:52,799
Speaker 13: week about potential endgames. What would need to happen in

927
00:47:52,880 --> 00:47:55,480
Speaker 13: order to get around this or for Tommy Tubberbtville to

928
00:47:55,520 --> 00:47:59,040
Speaker 13: be satisfied. Just still not exactly clear what that is

929
00:47:59,239 --> 00:48:01,160
Speaker 13: if that is achieved. And in the meantime, there are

930
00:48:01,160 --> 00:48:05,600
Speaker 13: a lot of individuals, including Democrats, looking at workarounds.

931
00:48:05,200 --> 00:48:08,520
Speaker 2: Democrats, even Republicans Joni or Espring. So that the idea

932
00:48:08,600 --> 00:48:10,560
Speaker 2: is fine, then you don't want to pass them in

933
00:48:10,640 --> 00:48:13,880
Speaker 2: a block, will bring them individually, one by one on

934
00:48:13,960 --> 00:48:16,520
Speaker 2: the Senate floor. And that's what Tim Kaine thought he

935
00:48:16,560 --> 00:48:20,440
Speaker 2: would try yesterday. He said, all three hundred and sixty

936
00:48:20,480 --> 00:48:23,040
Speaker 2: three of them, if I don't run out of steam.

937
00:48:23,640 --> 00:48:26,920
Speaker 2: And so here's Tim Kaine, the Senator from Virginia in

938
00:48:26,960 --> 00:48:29,400
Speaker 2: the outset. Here, this is a bit of a saga

939
00:48:29,400 --> 00:48:30,200
Speaker 2: that we're going to walk out.

940
00:48:30,280 --> 00:48:32,880
Speaker 8: I ask unanimous consent that the Senate proceed to the

941
00:48:32,920 --> 00:48:37,960
Speaker 8: consideration of the following nomination Calendar Item forty six, Colonel

942
00:48:38,040 --> 00:48:41,400
Speaker 8: Lee A. Swanson to be Brigadier General. That the Senate

943
00:48:41,480 --> 00:48:45,000
Speaker 8: vote on the nomination without intervening action or debate. That

944
00:48:45,080 --> 00:48:48,440
Speaker 8: if confirmed, the motion or reconsider be considered, made and

945
00:48:48,520 --> 00:48:49,879
Speaker 8: laid upon the table with no.

946
00:48:50,000 --> 00:48:51,280
Speaker 16: Intervening action or debate.

947
00:48:51,840 --> 00:48:54,800
Speaker 8: That any statements related to the nomination be printed in

948
00:48:54,880 --> 00:48:59,279
Speaker 8: the record, And that the President be immediately notified of

949
00:48:59,320 --> 00:49:00,319
Speaker 8: the Senate's action.

950
00:49:01,080 --> 00:49:02,160
Speaker 2: So nothing controversy.

951
00:49:02,239 --> 00:49:07,480
Speaker 1: Objection is President the Senator from Alabama.

952
00:49:07,000 --> 00:49:11,600
Speaker 2: Object Yeah, I have Jack. That's Tommy Tuberville. He was

953
00:49:11,640 --> 00:49:13,879
Speaker 2: on the floor for the whole thing. By the way,

954
00:49:13,960 --> 00:49:17,680
Speaker 2: Tim Kaine set up a military Day from Alabama signed

955
00:49:17,760 --> 00:49:21,080
Speaker 2: behind him, a Happy Birthday Marine Corps and a Veteran's

956
00:49:21,160 --> 00:49:22,880
Speaker 2: Day by the way, A happy Veterans Day.

957
00:49:22,960 --> 00:49:24,520
Speaker 13: Yeah, thank you to all who have served.

958
00:49:24,640 --> 00:49:27,520
Speaker 2: You're part of our show today. Indeed, thank you for

959
00:49:27,560 --> 00:49:30,319
Speaker 2: your service. Uh, this is probably not going to make

960
00:49:30,320 --> 00:49:34,759
Speaker 2: you very happy. So that was Corey Booker presiding over

961
00:49:34,800 --> 00:49:37,799
Speaker 2: the Senate. By the time John Fetterman got there, this

962
00:49:37,880 --> 00:49:39,320
Speaker 2: turned into a bit of a city.

963
00:49:40,680 --> 00:49:41,480
Speaker 6: Is there an objection?

964
00:49:42,040 --> 00:49:48,879
Speaker 18: I was President, the Senator from Alabama object? Objection is heard?

965
00:49:51,400 --> 00:49:54,640
Speaker 8: Is the next item calendar two two nine? Mister President,

966
00:49:54,680 --> 00:49:57,880
Speaker 8: Then I asked the same request that would be in

967
00:49:57,960 --> 00:50:00,840
Speaker 8: order to make the same request with respect calendar item

968
00:50:01,239 --> 00:50:04,799
Speaker 8: two to nine, Captain David E. Ludwell to be rear

969
00:50:04,840 --> 00:50:05,840
Speaker 8: Admiral lower half.

970
00:50:06,080 --> 00:50:07,200
Speaker 2: Try again on a difference.

971
00:50:07,320 --> 00:50:13,400
Speaker 18: Is there an Objection's? President, the Senator from Alabama object

972
00:50:14,160 --> 00:50:15,279
Speaker 18: The objection is heard.

973
00:50:16,320 --> 00:50:18,960
Speaker 2: The objection is heard as we bring in the General

974
00:50:19,000 --> 00:50:22,560
Speaker 2: Mark KIMMITTT, retired Brigadier General, former Assistant Secretary of State

975
00:50:22,600 --> 00:50:25,440
Speaker 2: for Political Military Affairs. General, It's good to see you

976
00:50:25,480 --> 00:50:28,439
Speaker 2: and welcome back. I know John Fetterman was laughing there,

977
00:50:28,480 --> 00:50:32,359
Speaker 2: but it's not obviously a very funny matter with these

978
00:50:32,440 --> 00:50:36,440
Speaker 2: promotions held up. Tommy Tarberville showing no signs of stopping

979
00:50:36,480 --> 00:50:38,719
Speaker 2: he's even standing on the Senate floor to go through

980
00:50:38,760 --> 00:50:42,040
Speaker 2: three hundred of these at a time if necessary. What

981
00:50:42,120 --> 00:50:44,440
Speaker 2: should be the strategy in dealing with this.

982
00:50:45,920 --> 00:50:50,040
Speaker 19: Well, I'm not a politician, nor do I understand Senate rules,

983
00:50:50,840 --> 00:50:53,720
Speaker 19: but it's clear that we need to get these people

984
00:50:53,840 --> 00:50:56,960
Speaker 19: on the job because it's not just three hundred officers,

985
00:50:57,000 --> 00:51:00,680
Speaker 19: it's a thousand officers. Why is it a power, Well,

986
00:51:00,960 --> 00:51:03,920
Speaker 19: if the commander is not in the job, then the

987
00:51:03,960 --> 00:51:07,279
Speaker 19: deputy commander has to take over. The deputy commander's not

988
00:51:07,400 --> 00:51:10,319
Speaker 19: on the job, then the assistant commander has to take over,

989
00:51:11,239 --> 00:51:13,879
Speaker 19: and the deputy assistant has to take over for him.

990
00:51:14,360 --> 00:51:18,320
Speaker 19: So essentially you have three people in temporary jobs having

991
00:51:18,360 --> 00:51:21,839
Speaker 19: to do the work of for and that simply has

992
00:51:21,880 --> 00:51:26,560
Speaker 19: an effect on not only readiness, but candidly good order

993
00:51:26,560 --> 00:51:27,919
Speaker 19: and discipline within the unit.

994
00:51:30,000 --> 00:51:33,240
Speaker 13: Well, what you hear consistently, though, general from Senator Tuberville

995
00:51:33,320 --> 00:51:36,200
Speaker 13: is that this isn't impacting military readiness, that the military

996
00:51:36,360 --> 00:51:39,120
Speaker 13: is still functioning. And what we hear is that it's

997
00:51:39,160 --> 00:51:42,279
Speaker 13: not just about readiness in the moment, but what the

998
00:51:42,320 --> 00:51:45,479
Speaker 13: future ramifications will be for the US military in terms

999
00:51:45,480 --> 00:51:49,520
Speaker 13: of retention, in terms of recruitment, can you just expand

1000
00:51:49,800 --> 00:51:50,160
Speaker 13: upon that.

1001
00:51:51,640 --> 00:51:54,200
Speaker 19: Well, I think those are two different issues between retention

1002
00:51:54,320 --> 00:51:59,040
Speaker 19: and recruitment. Candidly, you're talking about the generals at the

1003
00:51:59,200 --> 00:52:02,160
Speaker 19: very very top of the pecking order. I'm not sure

1004
00:52:02,200 --> 00:52:06,600
Speaker 19: any private considers retent that he will either stay in

1005
00:52:06,640 --> 00:52:09,000
Speaker 19: the military or not stay in the military based on

1006
00:52:09,040 --> 00:52:13,040
Speaker 19: a general's promotion. However, some would say this is just

1007
00:52:13,120 --> 00:52:17,920
Speaker 19: a symptom of a larger malaise within the military, most

1008
00:52:18,000 --> 00:52:22,600
Speaker 19: exemplified by the services that can't recruit enough people to

1009
00:52:22,680 --> 00:52:25,319
Speaker 19: come in. Don't think it necessarily has an issue to

1010
00:52:25,360 --> 00:52:28,600
Speaker 19: do with what Senator Tubberville is doing, but there are

1011
00:52:28,600 --> 00:52:30,919
Speaker 19: a lot of other issues that are keeping our young

1012
00:52:30,920 --> 00:52:33,480
Speaker 19: men and women from joining the services.

1013
00:52:34,120 --> 00:52:38,279
Speaker 2: General, we've discussed the argument before that this is not

1014
00:52:38,920 --> 00:52:42,000
Speaker 2: a major impact on readiness because there's a chain of

1015
00:52:42,080 --> 00:52:46,080
Speaker 2: command and that's the point of the structure in the military.

1016
00:52:46,160 --> 00:52:52,160
Speaker 2: How long can that argument be made.

1017
00:52:51,120 --> 00:52:54,640
Speaker 19: Well, again, at the general officer level, A very long

1018
00:52:55,200 --> 00:53:00,759
Speaker 19: and unfortunately bad period of time. Long period of time,

1019
00:53:00,840 --> 00:53:05,560
Speaker 19: but look, if you take a look at the battlefield.

1020
00:53:05,600 --> 00:53:09,080
Speaker 19: I was watching the documentary last night or the show

1021
00:53:09,200 --> 00:53:13,759
Speaker 19: The Pacific and watching those commanders die on the battlefield

1022
00:53:14,080 --> 00:53:17,319
Speaker 19: and those young lieutenants taking over and the sergeants taking over.

1023
00:53:17,760 --> 00:53:20,640
Speaker 19: I think at the lowest level, the ground tactical level,

1024
00:53:20,760 --> 00:53:24,040
Speaker 19: and at the highest level of the strategic level, the military

1025
00:53:24,360 --> 00:53:27,399
Speaker 19: readiness will not be impacted for a very, very long

1026
00:53:27,440 --> 00:53:31,839
Speaker 19: period of time. But I'm more concerned about those other

1027
00:53:31,880 --> 00:53:34,200
Speaker 19: issues that you referenced, recruiting and retention.

1028
00:53:36,760 --> 00:53:38,920
Speaker 13: But on the idea of readiness, and you say it

1029
00:53:38,960 --> 00:53:43,000
Speaker 13: may take some time in actuality in reality for readiness

1030
00:53:43,000 --> 00:53:46,160
Speaker 13: to have an impact. What about just the perception though,

1031
00:53:46,239 --> 00:53:51,800
Speaker 13: when people or countries abroad are looking in and considering

1032
00:53:51,840 --> 00:53:54,960
Speaker 13: the US military force, knowing that all of this is

1033
00:53:55,040 --> 00:53:55,520
Speaker 13: going on.

1034
00:53:57,120 --> 00:53:59,719
Speaker 19: Well, I would say other countries looking in have got

1035
00:53:59,719 --> 00:54:03,919
Speaker 19: a lot more a longer list of items that they're

1036
00:54:03,960 --> 00:54:07,280
Speaker 19: going to be looking at in terms of the downward

1037
00:54:07,400 --> 00:54:11,120
Speaker 19: trend in their view on the United States. We still

1038
00:54:11,120 --> 00:54:14,320
Speaker 19: have the best military in the world. I think our

1039
00:54:14,440 --> 00:54:17,880
Speaker 19: adversary certainly understand that this is just some tom foolery

1040
00:54:18,120 --> 00:54:21,400
Speaker 19: in the United States Congress. I don't think any enemy

1041
00:54:21,440 --> 00:54:25,000
Speaker 19: is saying, well, I wasn't going to attack last week,

1042
00:54:25,239 --> 00:54:28,320
Speaker 19: but this week, since Tumberville is playing games in Congress,

1043
00:54:28,480 --> 00:54:28,960
Speaker 19: let's go.

1044
00:54:32,080 --> 00:54:34,960
Speaker 2: This could go on indefinitely. This could go on for

1045
00:54:35,000 --> 00:54:38,200
Speaker 2: another year. In general, we could still be having this

1046
00:54:38,239 --> 00:54:41,840
Speaker 2: conversation around election time. What will it mean for the

1047
00:54:41,880 --> 00:54:42,839
Speaker 2: military by then.

1048
00:54:43,960 --> 00:54:46,040
Speaker 19: Well, first of all, I'll take that bet. It looks

1049
00:54:46,080 --> 00:54:49,680
Speaker 19: like the United States Senate, on both sides of the

1050
00:54:49,719 --> 00:54:54,360
Speaker 19: aisle are recognizing that this is you know, it's just

1051
00:54:55,160 --> 00:54:59,959
Speaker 19: toddry kind of politics, and so people like Tim Kane

1052
00:55:00,040 --> 00:55:02,239
Speaker 19: it looks like they're stepping up to the plate and

1053
00:55:02,320 --> 00:55:03,760
Speaker 19: try to work their way through.

1054
00:55:03,560 --> 00:55:08,520
Speaker 13: It as we look to what may still be ongoing

1055
00:55:08,600 --> 00:55:12,160
Speaker 13: by this time next year. There are also ongoing wars

1056
00:55:12,160 --> 00:55:16,040
Speaker 13: we have to consider in Israel with moss Ukraine versus Russia,

1057
00:55:16,120 --> 00:55:18,480
Speaker 13: and obviously in Congress, it's not just a matter of

1058
00:55:18,480 --> 00:55:20,799
Speaker 13: getting members of the military promoted. It's a matter of

1059
00:55:20,800 --> 00:55:23,680
Speaker 13: providing aid and funding, which is a subject of much

1060
00:55:23,760 --> 00:55:28,640
Speaker 13: debate general. If they can't get around to figuring out

1061
00:55:29,120 --> 00:55:32,200
Speaker 13: a compromise on funding quickly, what's the implication.

1062
00:55:33,160 --> 00:55:36,960
Speaker 19: Well, now you're addressing the real readiness issue. What really

1063
00:55:37,080 --> 00:55:40,680
Speaker 19: has a challenge to do with our operational capability? If we

1064
00:55:40,719 --> 00:55:43,440
Speaker 19: don't have airplanes, or the airplanes that we have are

1065
00:55:43,440 --> 00:55:46,240
Speaker 19: two old to be effective, we don't have enough ships,

1066
00:55:47,320 --> 00:55:51,360
Speaker 19: if we don't have enough weapons systems for our troops.

1067
00:55:51,800 --> 00:55:55,400
Speaker 19: That is going to have a significant effect on readiness.

1068
00:55:55,800 --> 00:55:59,319
Speaker 19: And that's less about what Senator Tumberville is doing with promotions,

1069
00:56:00,200 --> 00:56:02,799
Speaker 19: more to do with both the House and Senate not

1070
00:56:02,920 --> 00:56:06,920
Speaker 19: providing enough to the procurement accounts and the investment accounts

1071
00:56:06,960 --> 00:56:10,480
Speaker 19: of the United States Military that will make a difference.

1072
00:56:10,640 --> 00:56:14,239
Speaker 19: That will provide an incentive to our adversaries to take

1073
00:56:15,160 --> 00:56:17,640
Speaker 19: more risk than the otherwise would have taken. If they

1074
00:56:17,680 --> 00:56:21,640
Speaker 19: know the United States military, it's not the premier military

1075
00:56:21,680 --> 00:56:25,040
Speaker 19: in terms of not only troops, not only in terms

1076
00:56:25,040 --> 00:56:27,160
Speaker 19: of training, but if they don't have the tools they

1077
00:56:27,160 --> 00:56:30,759
Speaker 19: need to defeat or deter our enemies, that has a

1078
00:56:30,920 --> 00:56:34,760
Speaker 19: much larger impact than the promotion rate inside the US

1079
00:56:34,800 --> 00:56:37,240
Speaker 19: military general.

1080
00:56:37,320 --> 00:56:39,360
Speaker 2: We appreciate the insights and thank you for joining us

1081
00:56:39,440 --> 00:56:42,839
Speaker 2: on this Veteran's day. We don't always have the opportunity

1082
00:56:42,880 --> 00:56:45,319
Speaker 2: to say thank you for your service, So be well

1083
00:56:45,360 --> 00:56:50,719
Speaker 2: this weekend, and thanks for joining us on Bloomberg. Thanks

1084
00:56:50,760 --> 00:56:52,880
Speaker 2: for listening to the sound On podcast. Make sure to

1085
00:56:52,920 --> 00:56:56,120
Speaker 2: subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, and anywhere

1086
00:56:56,120 --> 00:56:58,520
Speaker 2: else you get your podcasts, and you can find us

1087
00:56:58,560 --> 00:57:01,880
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