1 00:00:04,519 --> 00:00:07,680 Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to Stephanomics, the podcast that brings the 2 00:00:07,720 --> 00:00:14,480 Speaker 1: global economy to you. You might have noticed the UK 3 00:00:14,880 --> 00:00:18,800 Speaker 1: is going to the polls on December twelve. General elections 4 00:00:18,840 --> 00:00:21,800 Speaker 1: are only supposed to happen once every five years, and 5 00:00:21,920 --> 00:00:26,000 Speaker 1: this is the third since the first to be held 6 00:00:26,000 --> 00:00:30,520 Speaker 1: in December since the nineteen twenties. For UK voters, Christmas 7 00:00:30,680 --> 00:00:33,960 Speaker 1: is definitely not coming earlier this year. In fact, for 8 00:00:34,000 --> 00:00:36,239 Speaker 1: the many schools that have to close on election day 9 00:00:36,280 --> 00:00:38,560 Speaker 1: to be used as polling stations, Christmas may not happen 10 00:00:38,600 --> 00:00:41,479 Speaker 1: at all. Up and down the land, Carol concerts and 11 00:00:41,560 --> 00:00:44,960 Speaker 1: Nativity plays have had to be rescheduled or canceled for 12 00:00:45,000 --> 00:00:48,680 Speaker 1: this snap election to go ahead. Some parents are very 13 00:00:48,800 --> 00:00:53,159 Speaker 1: upset others Anyway, if that's all you want to know 14 00:00:53,200 --> 00:00:55,480 Speaker 1: about the UK election, you should probably turn off now 15 00:00:55,680 --> 00:00:57,640 Speaker 1: come back next week when we'll be talking about the 16 00:00:57,680 --> 00:01:00,400 Speaker 1: future of India, among other things. But if you do 17 00:01:00,480 --> 00:01:03,080 Speaker 1: want to know what's at stake in this UK election 18 00:01:03,200 --> 00:01:06,000 Speaker 1: and what the lessons might be for Brexit Britain or 19 00:01:06,080 --> 00:01:09,760 Speaker 1: Donald Trump's America for that matter, this episode is for you. 20 00:01:10,680 --> 00:01:12,480 Speaker 1: At the end of the show, I'll ask our UK 21 00:01:12,520 --> 00:01:15,679 Speaker 1: economist Dan Hansen how he thinks the economy will be 22 00:01:15,680 --> 00:01:19,440 Speaker 1: affected by the election at b Brexit. But first we 23 00:01:19,480 --> 00:01:22,000 Speaker 1: have a special debate I chared earlier this week with 24 00:01:22,160 --> 00:01:25,760 Speaker 1: the heads of three extremely well respected independent think tanks 25 00:01:25,840 --> 00:01:28,520 Speaker 1: here in the UK. It's been their job the last 26 00:01:28,520 --> 00:01:32,240 Speaker 1: few weeks to tell fact from fiction in this highly polarized, 27 00:01:32,440 --> 00:01:37,080 Speaker 1: rather febrile election campaign. We talked in the debate about 28 00:01:37,120 --> 00:01:39,679 Speaker 1: what the two main parties were proposing in their election 29 00:01:39,720 --> 00:01:43,920 Speaker 1: platforms or manifestos, what the key dividing lines were, and 30 00:01:44,040 --> 00:01:47,360 Speaker 1: whether and how much any of it could really be believed. 31 00:01:47,400 --> 00:01:51,680 Speaker 1: Lots of politics and policies and smart debate. No politicians, 32 00:01:51,960 --> 00:01:57,440 Speaker 1: You're going to love it. The Institute for Fiscal Studies 33 00:01:57,520 --> 00:02:00,320 Speaker 1: led by Paul Johnson, the Institute for Government led by 34 00:02:00,320 --> 00:02:04,680 Speaker 1: Bronwyn Maddocks, and the UK in a Changing Europe there 35 00:02:04,720 --> 00:02:09,040 Speaker 1: by Alan Meno, have played a massive role already in 36 00:02:09,280 --> 00:02:11,600 Speaker 1: the truth telling battle. You're gonna get lots of truth 37 00:02:11,639 --> 00:02:16,920 Speaker 1: telling this evening also questions from the audience here but 38 00:02:17,040 --> 00:02:22,320 Speaker 1: also importantly from the from online. I have them all here. 39 00:02:22,320 --> 00:02:24,600 Speaker 1: There's lots of questions that we already have. Most of 40 00:02:24,639 --> 00:02:26,960 Speaker 1: them are worth about half an hour's discussion. At least 41 00:02:27,400 --> 00:02:30,520 Speaker 1: so I apologize in advanced for people, um if their 42 00:02:30,600 --> 00:02:34,200 Speaker 1: questions aren't fully answered, like is there an answer to 43 00:02:34,240 --> 00:02:38,600 Speaker 1: the social care crisis? Um? But they really exciting news 44 00:02:38,760 --> 00:02:40,840 Speaker 1: is that this has been more broadcast online and will 45 00:02:40,840 --> 00:02:44,000 Speaker 1: also be on the Stephonomics podcast, which is available whenever 46 00:02:44,200 --> 00:02:47,720 Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcast. M Paul, I think we 47 00:02:47,760 --> 00:02:51,720 Speaker 1: will have to deal with economics first. If you step back, 48 00:02:53,440 --> 00:02:57,040 Speaker 1: can we can we put look at to briefly look 49 00:02:57,080 --> 00:02:59,320 Speaker 1: at where we are in terms of what the parties 50 00:02:59,320 --> 00:03:01,799 Speaker 1: are suggesting, and I think more importantly put it into 51 00:03:01,840 --> 00:03:07,800 Speaker 1: some context. Well, we've certainly got big differences between between 52 00:03:07,840 --> 00:03:11,720 Speaker 1: the parties. I think it's worth starting actually thinking about 53 00:03:11,760 --> 00:03:15,480 Speaker 1: the what's in the manifestos just by saying that everything 54 00:03:15,520 --> 00:03:18,320 Speaker 1: about the economics and public finances in the next five 55 00:03:18,400 --> 00:03:23,600 Speaker 1: years is incredibly uncertain. Whoever wins and whatever happens with Brexit, 56 00:03:23,760 --> 00:03:26,239 Speaker 1: there's lots of uncertainty around what impact that's going to 57 00:03:26,280 --> 00:03:29,880 Speaker 1: have on the economy and the public finances. Don't forget, 58 00:03:29,880 --> 00:03:32,160 Speaker 1: as we often do. There's a big, wide world out there, 59 00:03:32,200 --> 00:03:35,160 Speaker 1: which economically speaking, was doing pretty well until a couple 60 00:03:35,160 --> 00:03:37,760 Speaker 1: of year and until earlier this year, and we lost 61 00:03:37,800 --> 00:03:40,480 Speaker 1: out on a lot of that growth, but it's slowing down. 62 00:03:41,720 --> 00:03:45,040 Speaker 1: We've got trade wars between China and the US. We 63 00:03:45,120 --> 00:03:47,560 Speaker 1: get a recession about once every ten years, and it's 64 00:03:47,560 --> 00:03:50,840 Speaker 1: about ten years since the last recession. So whether we 65 00:03:50,880 --> 00:03:53,839 Speaker 1: get another one over the next parliament remains to be seen, 66 00:03:53,880 --> 00:03:55,840 Speaker 1: and if we do, of course quite a lot of 67 00:03:55,840 --> 00:04:00,120 Speaker 1: stuff might get balloon. Well, off course, what what the 68 00:04:00,160 --> 00:04:04,760 Speaker 1: Conservatives saying, well in their manifesto, remarkably little, I think 69 00:04:04,840 --> 00:04:08,520 Speaker 1: it's fair to say on public finances, spending and tax 70 00:04:08,600 --> 00:04:10,560 Speaker 1: I think we said I think we'd certainly stand by 71 00:04:10,600 --> 00:04:12,960 Speaker 1: that that if this had been a one year budget, 72 00:04:12,960 --> 00:04:16,200 Speaker 1: we'd have described it as pretty modest. As as as 73 00:04:16,200 --> 00:04:19,120 Speaker 1: a program for government, it's really for five years. There's 74 00:04:19,120 --> 00:04:22,960 Speaker 1: really remarkably little in it. I mean, so spending in 75 00:04:23,000 --> 00:04:25,440 Speaker 1: a couple of years time will be about thirty billion 76 00:04:25,960 --> 00:04:29,520 Speaker 1: more than it is today. So in that sense, austerity 77 00:04:30,120 --> 00:04:36,920 Speaker 1: at an end, no further cuts planned um and public 78 00:04:36,960 --> 00:04:39,880 Speaker 1: service spending a little bit higher by three than it 79 00:04:39,960 --> 00:04:41,760 Speaker 1: was in twenty ten. Not well, that's an awful lot 80 00:04:41,760 --> 00:04:44,840 Speaker 1: to write home about. After more than a decade, the 81 00:04:44,960 --> 00:04:47,960 Speaker 1: public service spending outside of health will still be way down. 82 00:04:48,080 --> 00:04:52,680 Speaker 1: On where it was fifteen percent lower three on those 83 00:04:52,720 --> 00:04:58,000 Speaker 1: plans than it was in twenty ten, so some real increases, 84 00:04:58,040 --> 00:05:00,480 Speaker 1: but in a sense those were all pre announced and 85 00:05:00,520 --> 00:05:04,200 Speaker 1: there's very little additional in the manifesto. You take all 86 00:05:04,240 --> 00:05:06,839 Speaker 1: of that at face value and you get the deficit, 87 00:05:07,040 --> 00:05:11,080 Speaker 1: the debt pretty steady roughly where they are, which is 88 00:05:11,120 --> 00:05:13,080 Speaker 1: pretty much what you might think of most of the 89 00:05:13,320 --> 00:05:16,279 Speaker 1: Conservative manifesto bar Brexit, which is steady as she goes. 90 00:05:16,800 --> 00:05:20,680 Speaker 1: Not much change, of course, risks around what would happen 91 00:05:20,720 --> 00:05:24,919 Speaker 1: as a result of no deal if that's where we 92 00:05:25,000 --> 00:05:28,880 Speaker 1: end up in a year's time. Labor couldn't be much 93 00:05:28,960 --> 00:05:35,200 Speaker 1: more different. Um the scale of the tax and spending plans, 94 00:05:36,200 --> 00:05:40,920 Speaker 1: it's hard to overstates they really are extremely bit so, 95 00:05:41,000 --> 00:05:44,279 Speaker 1: just to throw some big numbers at you, um, current 96 00:05:44,360 --> 00:05:47,760 Speaker 1: spending increases eighty billion a year. This is on top 97 00:05:47,880 --> 00:05:53,120 Speaker 1: of the thirty odd billion already coming through investment spending, 98 00:05:53,160 --> 00:05:56,560 Speaker 1: and an extra fifty five billion a year on average 99 00:05:56,560 --> 00:06:00,599 Speaker 1: over a parliament has doubling government investment and the tax 100 00:06:00,640 --> 00:06:07,640 Speaker 1: increases of eight billion a year by all British historical standards, 101 00:06:07,760 --> 00:06:14,280 Speaker 1: astonishing and unprecedented levels of tax and spending increases It's 102 00:06:14,279 --> 00:06:17,520 Speaker 1: important to put addly in international context though. If you 103 00:06:17,600 --> 00:06:22,440 Speaker 1: take the overall spending plans, they would take us from 104 00:06:22,440 --> 00:06:26,720 Speaker 1: relatively low by Western European standards to rather more average 105 00:06:26,920 --> 00:06:30,479 Speaker 1: by Western European standards as tax and spending as a 106 00:06:30,520 --> 00:06:34,680 Speaker 1: fraction of national income, so unprecedented in UK history, but 107 00:06:34,760 --> 00:06:41,279 Speaker 1: not unprecedented in terms of international comparison. Um on the 108 00:06:41,400 --> 00:06:46,160 Speaker 1: on those spending plans, where's all that money going? I 109 00:06:46,200 --> 00:06:48,640 Speaker 1: think the answer in the sense is it's largely going 110 00:06:48,760 --> 00:06:54,360 Speaker 1: to a reimagined and more universal welfare state. So free 111 00:06:54,600 --> 00:07:00,440 Speaker 1: higher education, free childcare, free personal care, free prescriptions, um 112 00:07:00,480 --> 00:07:03,120 Speaker 1: and free, quite a lot of free TV licenses, free 113 00:07:03,160 --> 00:07:05,800 Speaker 1: quite a lot of other things. This is actually not 114 00:07:06,360 --> 00:07:09,520 Speaker 1: a manifesto focused on the poor. There's very little in 115 00:07:09,560 --> 00:07:12,080 Speaker 1: there actually to undo the welfare cuts we've had over 116 00:07:12,120 --> 00:07:15,320 Speaker 1: the last ten years. Probably less than a quarter of 117 00:07:15,320 --> 00:07:18,520 Speaker 1: the welfare cuts to be reversed. And of course the 118 00:07:18,560 --> 00:07:23,120 Speaker 1: main beneficiaries of the things that I just mentioned are 119 00:07:23,160 --> 00:07:28,560 Speaker 1: those who currently are high earning graduates, are are older 120 00:07:28,600 --> 00:07:32,600 Speaker 1: people who actually have some assets and so on. But actually, 121 00:07:32,640 --> 00:07:36,960 Speaker 1: I think despite these big differences between labor and conservatives 122 00:07:36,960 --> 00:07:39,360 Speaker 1: on their tax and spending plans. I think there's one 123 00:07:39,400 --> 00:07:41,240 Speaker 1: thing in common, which is actually we don't really know 124 00:07:41,320 --> 00:07:45,480 Speaker 1: what they would do, because it's not I think clausible 125 00:07:45,760 --> 00:07:48,280 Speaker 1: that within a single parliament Labor could do all of 126 00:07:48,320 --> 00:07:54,640 Speaker 1: the things that I've just described and nationalized water power, broadband, 127 00:07:55,200 --> 00:08:00,520 Speaker 1: royal mail and bringing their inclusive share ownership SKI and 128 00:08:00,640 --> 00:08:03,800 Speaker 1: as I say, double double investment spending and all the 129 00:08:03,840 --> 00:08:07,960 Speaker 1: other things that they're describing. There's a list and aspiration 130 00:08:08,680 --> 00:08:12,880 Speaker 1: which might be achievable over a couple of decades, but 131 00:08:13,000 --> 00:08:15,960 Speaker 1: certainly isn't achievable over a couple of years. So I 132 00:08:16,000 --> 00:08:19,040 Speaker 1: think actually with both Labor and Conservatives ones and left 133 00:08:19,120 --> 00:08:22,600 Speaker 1: with a lot of uncertainty about what actually they would 134 00:08:22,640 --> 00:08:27,160 Speaker 1: do um in in their time, in their time in government, 135 00:08:27,360 --> 00:08:30,520 Speaker 1: where would where would Labor's plans leave us in terms 136 00:08:30,560 --> 00:08:33,839 Speaker 1: of the public finance as well on their own on 137 00:08:34,120 --> 00:08:39,680 Speaker 1: their own figures, borrowing would something like double um too 138 00:08:39,720 --> 00:08:43,319 Speaker 1: about four percent of national income, the debt would national 139 00:08:43,400 --> 00:08:46,160 Speaker 1: debt would be rising. And that's all assuming that the 140 00:08:46,160 --> 00:08:50,280 Speaker 1: economy continue to grow as currently currently projected. But I 141 00:08:50,280 --> 00:08:52,480 Speaker 1: think the big I mean the big story here is 142 00:08:52,520 --> 00:08:56,400 Speaker 1: a huge increase in the role, scope and scale of 143 00:08:56,440 --> 00:08:58,960 Speaker 1: the state not just in terms of its tax and spending, 144 00:08:58,960 --> 00:09:01,319 Speaker 1: but in terms of nationalization, which would take more than 145 00:09:01,400 --> 00:09:05,080 Speaker 1: five percent of private business assets into the into the 146 00:09:05,080 --> 00:09:09,040 Speaker 1: public sector. A minimum wage actually which were directly set 147 00:09:09,040 --> 00:09:12,920 Speaker 1: from Whitehall, the wages of a quarter of private sector workers, 148 00:09:12,960 --> 00:09:16,360 Speaker 1: so high as it's set relative to the sorts of 149 00:09:16,400 --> 00:09:20,280 Speaker 1: wages that people learned. So a dramatically different view of 150 00:09:20,320 --> 00:09:23,960 Speaker 1: the role of the state compared with compared with the 151 00:09:24,040 --> 00:09:27,440 Speaker 1: compared with the Conservatives, and a big change from where 152 00:09:27,480 --> 00:09:37,800 Speaker 1: we've ever been. From wind your the in student has 153 00:09:37,800 --> 00:09:42,680 Speaker 1: done some fantastic stuff almost daily on the public services 154 00:09:42,760 --> 00:09:46,960 Speaker 1: piece of the election debates. I mean, it does strike 155 00:09:47,040 --> 00:09:49,559 Speaker 1: me that although we talk about we've talked about the 156 00:09:49,600 --> 00:09:52,880 Speaker 1: sort of big macro numbers, actually what's striking about this 157 00:09:52,960 --> 00:09:56,160 Speaker 1: election is not the not the macro debates that we've 158 00:09:56,160 --> 00:09:58,680 Speaker 1: tended to focus on in the past, but actually real 159 00:09:58,760 --> 00:10:02,679 Speaker 1: disagreements about the cre economic level, about the basic principles 160 00:10:02,720 --> 00:10:07,640 Speaker 1: for policy. Absolutely, let me say two general things about 161 00:10:07,679 --> 00:10:09,920 Speaker 1: this election and then dig into some of the detail 162 00:10:10,280 --> 00:10:13,199 Speaker 1: and pick up on these points that Stephanie and Paul 163 00:10:13,200 --> 00:10:15,880 Speaker 1: are raising. And the first is that this is a 164 00:10:15,960 --> 00:10:18,959 Speaker 1: real battle of ideas. We've had something of a consensus 165 00:10:18,960 --> 00:10:22,000 Speaker 1: for thirty forty years about how to run government, no 166 00:10:22,080 --> 00:10:26,079 Speaker 1: matter whether Labor or Conservatives have been leading that government. 167 00:10:26,600 --> 00:10:30,440 Speaker 1: And it's about driving for more efficient use of public spending, 168 00:10:31,040 --> 00:10:33,600 Speaker 1: bringing in some of the techniques from the private sector, 169 00:10:33,920 --> 00:10:37,040 Speaker 1: like targets and a certain sort of managerialism. But you've 170 00:10:37,120 --> 00:10:40,320 Speaker 1: even abroad consensus there and that the government was there 171 00:10:40,360 --> 00:10:44,319 Speaker 1: to work with the private sector, and the boundary might 172 00:10:44,320 --> 00:10:46,719 Speaker 1: go back and forth a bit, but the techniques for 173 00:10:46,840 --> 00:10:50,199 Speaker 1: doing all that would would would get better and better. 174 00:10:50,800 --> 00:10:54,319 Speaker 1: And this is um and certainly the challenge from Labor 175 00:10:54,720 --> 00:10:58,360 Speaker 1: in this election is something very different. They don't see 176 00:10:58,360 --> 00:11:00,840 Speaker 1: it that way, and they have on to great length, 177 00:11:01,080 --> 00:11:04,880 Speaker 1: great length and the manifesto to spell out just how 178 00:11:04,920 --> 00:11:07,920 Speaker 1: differently they see things. And while we can talk about 179 00:11:07,920 --> 00:11:10,679 Speaker 1: the individual policies, I think we have to capture as 180 00:11:10,720 --> 00:11:14,120 Speaker 1: well that this is really a different worldview about how 181 00:11:14,200 --> 00:11:17,679 Speaker 1: government works, as well as the size of the state. 182 00:11:18,720 --> 00:11:21,240 Speaker 1: And the second thing, picking up on a point that 183 00:11:21,240 --> 00:11:24,160 Speaker 1: Paul made, is that they have promised too much. The 184 00:11:24,200 --> 00:11:28,400 Speaker 1: Conservatives have promised too much with Brexit ah their big 185 00:11:28,440 --> 00:11:31,560 Speaker 1: idea if you like there, their manifesto is not entirely 186 00:11:31,600 --> 00:11:34,439 Speaker 1: devoid of things, because that sits there right in the middle. 187 00:11:35,200 --> 00:11:39,520 Speaker 1: And yet what they've promised in terms of getting that done, 188 00:11:39,960 --> 00:11:42,360 Speaker 1: and the time scale on which they've promised to do it, 189 00:11:42,800 --> 00:11:47,440 Speaker 1: and the fact that they're objective depends on the European Union, 190 00:11:47,480 --> 00:11:51,120 Speaker 1: not just on the European Union, but on the unanimous 191 00:11:51,160 --> 00:11:56,880 Speaker 1: approval by twenty seven different European countries, makes that extraordinarily hard. 192 00:11:57,360 --> 00:12:01,840 Speaker 1: That's them. Labor has, to its credit, spent obviously a 193 00:12:01,880 --> 00:12:04,560 Speaker 1: great deal of time and many many pages in spelling 194 00:12:04,559 --> 00:12:08,600 Speaker 1: out in detail what it intends to do. Um. The 195 00:12:08,679 --> 00:12:12,560 Speaker 1: sheer bureaucratic volume of what they try to do, I 196 00:12:12,559 --> 00:12:16,520 Speaker 1: think we need to remind ourselves of it. UM take 197 00:12:16,559 --> 00:12:19,920 Speaker 1: them years, possibly simply to create the three new departments. 198 00:12:19,960 --> 00:12:23,080 Speaker 1: They want things that are in there almost as an aside, 199 00:12:23,440 --> 00:12:27,319 Speaker 1: like abolished universal credit, to be enormously disruptive and take 200 00:12:27,360 --> 00:12:30,320 Speaker 1: a couple of a couple of governments to do, and 201 00:12:30,360 --> 00:12:32,240 Speaker 1: I'm not sure they'd be well advised to do it. 202 00:12:32,520 --> 00:12:35,280 Speaker 1: And that's before getting onto some of the big planks 203 00:12:35,440 --> 00:12:39,040 Speaker 1: of what they want to do, like renationalization and so on. 204 00:12:39,480 --> 00:12:42,200 Speaker 1: So you know, they've got enough in there for many, 205 00:12:42,360 --> 00:12:46,280 Speaker 1: many governments. And this question of prioritization, I think would 206 00:12:46,320 --> 00:12:51,000 Speaker 1: be particularly forceful director directed at them on ownership, which 207 00:12:51,040 --> 00:12:54,920 Speaker 1: matters a great deal to labor Um. We can see 208 00:12:54,960 --> 00:12:58,200 Speaker 1: from this manifesto labor as really set out it believes 209 00:12:58,920 --> 00:13:04,000 Speaker 1: that it matters who owns things. It matters that if 210 00:13:04,000 --> 00:13:08,120 Speaker 1: the government owns things, it matters if workers own things, 211 00:13:08,200 --> 00:13:12,920 Speaker 1: and it is clearly after a transfer of power UM 212 00:13:13,520 --> 00:13:17,080 Speaker 1: through this ownership. I think it has yet to make 213 00:13:17,280 --> 00:13:21,400 Speaker 1: the case that government ownership of many of the problematic 214 00:13:21,480 --> 00:13:25,120 Speaker 1: things it has alighted on, for example, the railways would 215 00:13:25,120 --> 00:13:30,040 Speaker 1: be dramatically would lead to a dramatic improvement UM. These 216 00:13:30,440 --> 00:13:35,360 Speaker 1: These are problematic for many reasons, but they were under 217 00:13:35,360 --> 00:13:39,840 Speaker 1: government ownership before. It is absolutely true that in some 218 00:13:39,960 --> 00:13:44,440 Speaker 1: cases UM priadization has not helped. But the fault I 219 00:13:44,480 --> 00:13:48,679 Speaker 1: think has lies more easily, is more easy to identify 220 00:13:48,720 --> 00:13:51,120 Speaker 1: the faults with a regulatory regime, and that would be 221 00:13:51,160 --> 00:13:54,640 Speaker 1: an easier starting point then simply pulling the whole lot 222 00:13:55,000 --> 00:13:58,000 Speaker 1: into government hands again. And there is not in many 223 00:13:58,080 --> 00:14:00,880 Speaker 1: cases capacity to man the edge of these things in 224 00:14:00,920 --> 00:14:03,440 Speaker 1: the way that there was in the past in government, 225 00:14:04,040 --> 00:14:06,400 Speaker 1: and to say that all these problems will suddenly go away. 226 00:14:06,520 --> 00:14:08,920 Speaker 1: They won't they will be more easily pinned at the 227 00:14:08,960 --> 00:14:13,600 Speaker 1: door of ministers. Allen's going to talk much more about Brexit, 228 00:14:13,880 --> 00:14:16,040 Speaker 1: but I would just say I'm at the Conservative deadline 229 00:14:16,160 --> 00:14:18,760 Speaker 1: of the end of the year is so tight, you 230 00:14:18,960 --> 00:14:24,000 Speaker 1: preparing so thoroughly already for those negotiations, and you only 231 00:14:24,040 --> 00:14:26,160 Speaker 1: have to scaff in a few words like fish and 232 00:14:26,200 --> 00:14:30,360 Speaker 1: Gibraltar to make the whole thing very complicated and difficult 233 00:14:30,360 --> 00:14:33,520 Speaker 1: for any new government UK government to accept that there 234 00:14:33,600 --> 00:14:36,000 Speaker 1: is a real possibility if we have a Conservative government here, 235 00:14:36,080 --> 00:14:39,120 Speaker 1: that we have another no deal cliffhanger, though the room 236 00:14:39,200 --> 00:14:43,320 Speaker 1: for compromise that both sides showed might lead us to 237 00:14:43,320 --> 00:14:46,600 Speaker 1: hope that that could be brushed away on labor side, 238 00:14:47,040 --> 00:14:49,400 Speaker 1: This timetable of six months to get it all done, 239 00:14:49,400 --> 00:14:53,480 Speaker 1: including a second referendum, I honestly think is for the birds. 240 00:14:54,120 --> 00:14:56,840 Speaker 1: It just um they would have to be bringing in 241 00:14:56,960 --> 00:15:00,600 Speaker 1: legislation right away for a second referendum without even knowing 242 00:15:00,640 --> 00:15:02,360 Speaker 1: what the question was, because they wouldn't have done the 243 00:15:02,400 --> 00:15:05,160 Speaker 1: deal yet. So I think they've been unrealistic, both of 244 00:15:05,160 --> 00:15:07,120 Speaker 1: them in different ways on this, And I just come 245 00:15:07,160 --> 00:15:09,280 Speaker 1: back to that point of the battle of ideas. I 246 00:15:09,280 --> 00:15:13,800 Speaker 1: mean this, these are two very very different expressions of 247 00:15:13,840 --> 00:15:17,320 Speaker 1: how government works and the role of government plays in 248 00:15:17,400 --> 00:15:22,320 Speaker 1: fixing things and by extension, the role of freedom for 249 00:15:22,400 --> 00:15:26,760 Speaker 1: individuals or businesses. It is a battle about liberalism in 250 00:15:27,280 --> 00:15:30,520 Speaker 1: a way, and we can express some of this in numbers, 251 00:15:31,160 --> 00:15:33,360 Speaker 1: um the sheer amounts of money going to one thing 252 00:15:33,440 --> 00:15:36,720 Speaker 1: or other, but it's bigger than that, um. And so 253 00:15:36,760 --> 00:15:39,080 Speaker 1: even though this has been called the Brexit election and 254 00:15:39,160 --> 00:15:42,080 Speaker 1: the public services and wall of money election, I think 255 00:15:42,120 --> 00:15:44,800 Speaker 1: it really is a battle of ideas, and I want 256 00:15:44,800 --> 00:15:46,600 Speaker 1: to I'm going to come back very briefly on that, 257 00:15:46,640 --> 00:15:50,440 Speaker 1: because I do think it's interesting. It hasn't come out 258 00:15:50,440 --> 00:15:55,360 Speaker 1: of nowhere, this very different approach um. And of course 259 00:15:55,400 --> 00:15:58,280 Speaker 1: many people would say it's directly a throwback to a 260 00:15:58,320 --> 00:16:03,000 Speaker 1: previous time and previous Labor Party policies, but that how 261 00:16:03,080 --> 00:16:07,720 Speaker 1: much do you think it's a reflection on the failures 262 00:16:07,720 --> 00:16:10,760 Speaker 1: of that sort of managerial approach that was in a 263 00:16:10,880 --> 00:16:14,560 Speaker 1: sentence for all these years that throughout this period, not 264 00:16:14,720 --> 00:16:18,360 Speaker 1: just recently, throughout this period, quite significant majorities of the 265 00:16:18,400 --> 00:16:22,960 Speaker 1: public have been in favor of renationalizing quite large chunks 266 00:16:23,000 --> 00:16:28,400 Speaker 1: of the privatized industries, and certainly younger people also have 267 00:16:28,480 --> 00:16:32,440 Speaker 1: a perception that things have that that managerial model certainly 268 00:16:32,480 --> 00:16:35,600 Speaker 1: didn't change enough in response to the financial crisis. I 269 00:16:35,640 --> 00:16:38,880 Speaker 1: was struct there was a very good Business Week piece 270 00:16:38,920 --> 00:16:41,360 Speaker 1: about trying to explain to the Business Week audience and 271 00:16:41,400 --> 00:16:44,120 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg audience this week how Corbin had sort of 272 00:16:44,160 --> 00:16:48,560 Speaker 1: got so far, and particularly about you know, how radically 273 00:16:48,560 --> 00:16:53,480 Speaker 1: he was, but also how particularly younger people supported him. 274 00:16:53,560 --> 00:16:56,040 Speaker 1: And he's that says they not only have zero problem 275 00:16:56,080 --> 00:16:58,720 Speaker 1: with his desire for an activist state, they see it 276 00:16:58,760 --> 00:17:01,600 Speaker 1: as the sole remedy for system that's still forcing average 277 00:17:01,600 --> 00:17:03,960 Speaker 1: people to pay for the sins of the financial industry 278 00:17:03,960 --> 00:17:05,840 Speaker 1: and the crash. I mean there is a bit of 279 00:17:06,280 --> 00:17:08,760 Speaker 1: some of this is is because there was a failure 280 00:17:08,800 --> 00:17:12,320 Speaker 1: to change. I think that's exactly right. And I think 281 00:17:12,320 --> 00:17:16,680 Speaker 1: it's it's it's older than the financial crisis itself. Um. 282 00:17:16,720 --> 00:17:19,199 Speaker 1: And I think some of the privatizations, you know, it 283 00:17:19,280 --> 00:17:23,520 Speaker 1: worked partly. Um. You can argue it's not very popular 284 00:17:23,560 --> 00:17:27,400 Speaker 1: that the railways were even worse before and carried many 285 00:17:27,440 --> 00:17:32,600 Speaker 1: fewer people. Um. And and that beat has in a 286 00:17:32,680 --> 00:17:37,520 Speaker 1: lumbering way improved itself. H and so on. And I 287 00:17:37,520 --> 00:17:40,480 Speaker 1: think that is right. But the regulators also, to my mind, 288 00:17:41,119 --> 00:17:43,960 Speaker 1: have struggled with a very difficult job, not just a 289 00:17:44,080 --> 00:17:49,440 Speaker 1: price regulation, but sometimes of content regulation in the case 290 00:17:49,520 --> 00:17:53,479 Speaker 1: of Offcom. They've got they've got very very difficult jobs. 291 00:17:53,520 --> 00:17:56,120 Speaker 1: And there is not a great deal of support rightly 292 00:17:56,160 --> 00:17:59,760 Speaker 1: in my view for kind of unelected technocrats presiding of 293 00:18:00,119 --> 00:18:02,679 Speaker 1: these things that really affect people's household bills and so on. 294 00:18:02,720 --> 00:18:05,000 Speaker 1: So I think a lot of the challenges right and 295 00:18:05,040 --> 00:18:08,399 Speaker 1: when you come to the generational imbalances, um, we can 296 00:18:08,400 --> 00:18:10,040 Speaker 1: have this, there would be a whole seminargist on the 297 00:18:10,800 --> 00:18:13,840 Speaker 1: definitely be very expert on. But what the responses to 298 00:18:13,880 --> 00:18:17,800 Speaker 1: the financial crisis did in terms of the exacerbating the 299 00:18:17,840 --> 00:18:21,280 Speaker 1: problems in the housing market and exacerbating our stocks of 300 00:18:21,320 --> 00:18:26,440 Speaker 1: wealth for some some parts of the population easily caricatured. 301 00:18:26,480 --> 00:18:30,000 Speaker 1: But but there is enormous sting in that for the 302 00:18:30,080 --> 00:18:33,280 Speaker 1: generational divide, and I think politicians have been very very 303 00:18:33,359 --> 00:18:36,439 Speaker 1: slow to recognize that and to address some of the 304 00:18:36,520 --> 00:18:41,520 Speaker 1: particular problems for example, the housing the housing market, UM, 305 00:18:41,560 --> 00:18:45,720 Speaker 1: and so these things are built up. But state where 306 00:18:45,760 --> 00:18:48,760 Speaker 1: the state ownership is actually a remedy for all of these, 307 00:18:48,800 --> 00:18:50,840 Speaker 1: I think is an entirely separate argument along that I 308 00:18:50,880 --> 00:18:54,280 Speaker 1: think Labor has has really yet to make the case 309 00:18:54,320 --> 00:18:57,959 Speaker 1: for let alone to win ann and men not um. 310 00:18:58,520 --> 00:19:00,720 Speaker 1: Bromwin said, this was supposed to be the Brexit election. 311 00:19:00,800 --> 00:19:05,520 Speaker 1: It is striking that it has not been as dominated 312 00:19:05,600 --> 00:19:08,240 Speaker 1: by Brexit as we might have expected, and I guess 313 00:19:08,240 --> 00:19:10,520 Speaker 1: some people would take that as an example as a 314 00:19:10,520 --> 00:19:14,159 Speaker 1: sign of these other real debates being quite important to people. 315 00:19:14,560 --> 00:19:16,560 Speaker 1: I guess the other the other reason might be that 316 00:19:16,600 --> 00:19:19,000 Speaker 1: people just don't fed up with talking about Brexit and 317 00:19:19,000 --> 00:19:21,840 Speaker 1: don't know who to believe, because, as brom Win says, 318 00:19:21,880 --> 00:19:25,760 Speaker 1: there is so much unreality on both sides on this topic. 319 00:19:26,080 --> 00:19:28,360 Speaker 1: What do you think well? And yet at the same time, 320 00:19:28,400 --> 00:19:31,000 Speaker 1: people have very strong feelings about Brexit. That mean that, 321 00:19:31,040 --> 00:19:33,360 Speaker 1: you know, if you look at the survey evidence, far 322 00:19:33,440 --> 00:19:36,760 Speaker 1: more people in the British Social Attitudes Poll, of the 323 00:19:36,840 --> 00:19:39,359 Speaker 1: survey that's taken are now very interested in politics and 324 00:19:39,400 --> 00:19:42,680 Speaker 1: whatever the case before, we can expect I think pretty 325 00:19:42,760 --> 00:19:44,960 Speaker 1: high turn out, not just because people are motivated because 326 00:19:44,960 --> 00:19:47,200 Speaker 1: we have a new registers so are counting fewer dead 327 00:19:47,200 --> 00:19:53,199 Speaker 1: people now, so the proportion is going to be naturally so, 328 00:19:53,200 --> 00:19:57,080 Speaker 1: so I think people are motivated by Brexit I mean 329 00:19:57,960 --> 00:20:01,000 Speaker 1: the problem is, I think, are there are the specters 330 00:20:00,440 --> 00:20:03,960 Speaker 1: as as Bromwin hinted at this, that they're being offered, 331 00:20:05,200 --> 00:20:11,320 Speaker 1: aren't all together straightforward or necessarily honest. On the point 332 00:20:11,359 --> 00:20:13,120 Speaker 1: about and I'll come onto the manifesteds in a minute, 333 00:20:13,160 --> 00:20:14,320 Speaker 1: but on the point about whether or not this is 334 00:20:14,320 --> 00:20:16,080 Speaker 1: a Brexit election, I suppose the proof of the pudding 335 00:20:16,119 --> 00:20:18,399 Speaker 1: is going to be in the eating. Now, seventeen was 336 00:20:18,440 --> 00:20:20,080 Speaker 1: meant to be a Brexit election, but if you dig 337 00:20:20,080 --> 00:20:22,639 Speaker 1: into the numbers, then actually social class as ever was 338 00:20:22,760 --> 00:20:26,200 Speaker 1: the primary driver of how people voted. So there was 339 00:20:26,240 --> 00:20:28,159 Speaker 1: a Brexit impact, but it was quite limited. And what 340 00:20:28,240 --> 00:20:29,919 Speaker 1: we don't know this time, and I'll come back to 341 00:20:29,920 --> 00:20:32,000 Speaker 1: this in a minute, because it matters is whether or 342 00:20:32,040 --> 00:20:36,480 Speaker 1: not new Brexit coalitions will take shape, whether in particular 343 00:20:36,520 --> 00:20:38,240 Speaker 1: the Tories come to power on the back of a 344 00:20:38,280 --> 00:20:41,800 Speaker 1: Brexit coalition that might win the majority, but I might 345 00:20:41,880 --> 00:20:43,760 Speaker 1: actually make it very very hard for them to govern 346 00:20:44,800 --> 00:20:48,040 Speaker 1: because creating a set of economic policies for that Brexit 347 00:20:48,080 --> 00:20:50,520 Speaker 1: coalition is going to be challenging, to say the least. 348 00:20:50,960 --> 00:20:54,560 Speaker 1: But on the manifestos, if I start with Labor, I 349 00:20:54,560 --> 00:20:57,119 Speaker 1: mean the Labor offer is on the surface quite simple. 350 00:20:57,320 --> 00:20:59,320 Speaker 1: We're going to go to Brussels, we're gonna negotiate the deal, 351 00:20:59,320 --> 00:21:00,919 Speaker 1: we're gonna come back, gonna have a referendum, and as 352 00:21:00,920 --> 00:21:03,200 Speaker 1: bron Win says, that will take us six months and 353 00:21:03,240 --> 00:21:06,200 Speaker 1: then we'll move on to other things. Now there are 354 00:21:06,240 --> 00:21:08,520 Speaker 1: holes in this, I mean not least in the fact 355 00:21:08,520 --> 00:21:10,640 Speaker 1: that it's far from clear what Jeremy Corban is going 356 00:21:10,680 --> 00:21:14,240 Speaker 1: to ask for in Brussels. There are some wonderfully ambiguous 357 00:21:14,280 --> 00:21:18,960 Speaker 1: phrases in the manifesto joined UK EU Trade Deals is 358 00:21:18,960 --> 00:21:23,000 Speaker 1: one such phrase. If by joints the Labor Party mean 359 00:21:23,080 --> 00:21:25,000 Speaker 1: that EU will negotiate them and we will have to 360 00:21:25,040 --> 00:21:28,080 Speaker 1: apply them, then I think the EU could probably live 361 00:21:28,160 --> 00:21:30,399 Speaker 1: with that. If by joint the Labor Party means we're 362 00:21:30,400 --> 00:21:33,160 Speaker 1: going to get a real say over them, I suspect 363 00:21:33,160 --> 00:21:36,720 Speaker 1: Brussels might turn around and say hectually no. So that's 364 00:21:36,760 --> 00:21:38,280 Speaker 1: one issue where there's going to be a little bit 365 00:21:38,280 --> 00:21:39,960 Speaker 1: of ambiguity, and the other is on the notion of 366 00:21:40,000 --> 00:21:43,280 Speaker 1: alignment with the Single Market. What Labor don't say is 367 00:21:43,320 --> 00:21:48,600 Speaker 1: how much. So the scale of ambition is very very unclear. Uh. 368 00:21:48,800 --> 00:21:51,080 Speaker 1: And of course, when it comes to the political practicalities 369 00:21:51,080 --> 00:21:53,359 Speaker 1: of the labor position. There's very little escaping from the 370 00:21:53,400 --> 00:21:56,280 Speaker 1: fact that even were Jeremy Corbyn to pull this trick off, 371 00:21:56,320 --> 00:21:59,679 Speaker 1: to go to Brussels renegotiate a deal, and there are 372 00:21:59,680 --> 00:22:01,800 Speaker 1: reasons I think to wonder whether he'll get that far, 373 00:22:01,880 --> 00:22:03,280 Speaker 1: which I'll come back to in a sect, But he 374 00:22:03,320 --> 00:22:06,119 Speaker 1: will come back and then find a significant amount of 375 00:22:06,160 --> 00:22:08,840 Speaker 1: his own cabinet, of his own parliamentary party, of his 376 00:22:08,920 --> 00:22:12,000 Speaker 1: own party membership, and of his own electorate will then 377 00:22:12,000 --> 00:22:15,040 Speaker 1: go and campaign against what he's just done, which at 378 00:22:15,040 --> 00:22:18,320 Speaker 1: a minimum is not a good look. I mean, you know, 379 00:22:18,520 --> 00:22:20,960 Speaker 1: think back to six It's not a good look for 380 00:22:21,000 --> 00:22:23,280 Speaker 1: a prime minister to have his deal trashed by his 381 00:22:23,359 --> 00:22:30,320 Speaker 1: own party. So there's there's instability inherent in that anyway, 382 00:22:30,720 --> 00:22:32,960 Speaker 1: So you know there there there are there are issues 383 00:22:33,000 --> 00:22:36,000 Speaker 1: around what what what labor is offering. I personally think 384 00:22:36,040 --> 00:22:38,920 Speaker 1: it will be very very hard for a minority labor 385 00:22:38,920 --> 00:22:41,080 Speaker 1: government because that is the only source of labor government. 386 00:22:41,119 --> 00:22:44,640 Speaker 1: We're going to have to get the necessary legislation through 387 00:22:44,680 --> 00:22:48,159 Speaker 1: Poland my hunches as they try to do this and 388 00:22:48,240 --> 00:22:52,720 Speaker 1: run into the choppy waters of a Lib Dem party, 389 00:22:52,800 --> 00:22:55,199 Speaker 1: half of whose MPs will be people who left in 390 00:22:55,280 --> 00:22:57,520 Speaker 1: order that Jeremy Corbyn didn't become Prime Minister of an 391 00:22:57,600 --> 00:23:00,479 Speaker 1: SMP that has its own list of demand, I wouldn't 392 00:23:00,480 --> 00:23:02,479 Speaker 1: be at all surprised if we weren't to have another 393 00:23:02,560 --> 00:23:06,800 Speaker 1: election before we got anywhere near a referendument. Will see 394 00:23:06,840 --> 00:23:11,520 Speaker 1: what happens. I was going to say that to last 395 00:23:11,520 --> 00:23:14,439 Speaker 1: actually uh turned to the Tories. I mean, there are 396 00:23:14,480 --> 00:23:16,919 Speaker 1: three things that concerning about the Tory manifestoized, but well, 397 00:23:16,960 --> 00:23:19,359 Speaker 1: one thing that doesn't concern me is I think I 398 00:23:19,359 --> 00:23:21,399 Speaker 1: would say that if the Conservatives come back with a 399 00:23:21,440 --> 00:23:25,560 Speaker 1: majority of one, they will get Brexit done by the 400 00:23:25,600 --> 00:23:28,600 Speaker 1: end of January, because I'm pretty certain that no Conservative 401 00:23:28,680 --> 00:23:31,680 Speaker 1: MP returned in this election will vote against any Brexit 402 00:23:32,480 --> 00:23:35,159 Speaker 1: motion in the House of Commons until we've left, so 403 00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:37,639 Speaker 1: I think they only need a very very small majority 404 00:23:37,680 --> 00:23:41,040 Speaker 1: to get us over that line. Then, going back to 405 00:23:41,040 --> 00:23:43,200 Speaker 1: one of the things I said earlier, if you imagine 406 00:23:43,200 --> 00:23:46,600 Speaker 1: a Tory party in Parliament that involves not just traditional 407 00:23:46,640 --> 00:23:49,560 Speaker 1: Tory MPs, but you know, a Tory MP for I 408 00:23:49,560 --> 00:23:53,679 Speaker 1: can hardly say this a Tory MP for Wakefield, for Bolsover, 409 00:23:53,920 --> 00:23:58,400 Speaker 1: for West Bromwich, for Walsall all those people once they've 410 00:23:58,400 --> 00:24:00,960 Speaker 1: been elected and got over the sort warm Glowe will 411 00:24:01,000 --> 00:24:03,440 Speaker 1: be thinking, hang on a say, the Prime minister's plan 412 00:24:03,560 --> 00:24:06,159 Speaker 1: for Brexit is to make our economical relationship with the 413 00:24:06,160 --> 00:24:09,639 Speaker 1: European Union so thin that a significant number of my 414 00:24:09,720 --> 00:24:12,840 Speaker 1: constituents might lose their jobs Before I'm up for re election, 415 00:24:14,440 --> 00:24:17,680 Speaker 1: those pressures will be real inside the Parliamentary Conservative Party, 416 00:24:17,680 --> 00:24:19,880 Speaker 1: I think quite quickly. So in a sense, the more 417 00:24:19,920 --> 00:24:23,040 Speaker 1: successful Boris Johnson's electoral strategy is, the harder it will 418 00:24:23,080 --> 00:24:25,160 Speaker 1: be to deliver the sort of Brexit he's been promising. 419 00:24:25,400 --> 00:24:29,040 Speaker 1: Just putting you on the spot because there's a question 420 00:24:29,960 --> 00:24:35,199 Speaker 1: from online that does just that. What is harder to 421 00:24:35,280 --> 00:24:39,720 Speaker 1: do negotiate the future relationship within the year, or negotiate 422 00:24:39,760 --> 00:24:41,960 Speaker 1: a new withdrawal agreement and hold a referendum within six 423 00:24:42,000 --> 00:24:44,199 Speaker 1: months if you're just kind of you know, on the 424 00:24:44,320 --> 00:24:48,080 Speaker 1: implause and bombitter which which which one is kind of 425 00:24:48,080 --> 00:24:50,239 Speaker 1: off the scale and which one is or they are 426 00:24:50,240 --> 00:24:57,000 Speaker 1: they both? Well, they're not neither easy. The trade. I remember, 427 00:24:57,040 --> 00:24:58,920 Speaker 1: it's not just the trade that depends the scale of 428 00:24:58,920 --> 00:25:01,399 Speaker 1: our ambitions. I mean, one piking omission from the Tory 429 00:25:01,440 --> 00:25:04,639 Speaker 1: manifesto is any mentioned at all of security corporation with 430 00:25:04,680 --> 00:25:07,960 Speaker 1: the European Union, and let issues around military corporation, round 431 00:25:08,040 --> 00:25:12,000 Speaker 1: data sharing for police collaboration are incredibly important. If you 432 00:25:12,000 --> 00:25:14,639 Speaker 1: want to do all of that, and you want to 433 00:25:14,680 --> 00:25:16,359 Speaker 1: do it well, you're not going to do it in 434 00:25:16,359 --> 00:25:21,600 Speaker 1: a year. So negotiating a good, broad, thorough relationship with 435 00:25:21,640 --> 00:25:24,720 Speaker 1: our nearest and largest trading partner is not going to 436 00:25:24,760 --> 00:25:27,800 Speaker 1: take the year, is going to take longer. So that's 437 00:25:28,000 --> 00:25:30,400 Speaker 1: that's the most implausible. But the other one is pretty 438 00:25:33,520 --> 00:25:36,040 Speaker 1: I've been looking through I had been paying attention, but 439 00:25:36,119 --> 00:25:39,040 Speaker 1: I'm also looking through all the many, many questions meant, 440 00:25:39,119 --> 00:25:43,280 Speaker 1: some of which came in before before we started talking. 441 00:25:43,280 --> 00:25:45,200 Speaker 1: Others are trying to prove that they are watching by 442 00:25:45,240 --> 00:25:53,800 Speaker 1: noticing that Paul Johnson's wearing red sox question always well, 443 00:25:53,840 --> 00:25:55,920 Speaker 1: there you go. Actually they make that comment as well, 444 00:25:58,560 --> 00:26:02,040 Speaker 1: it's your's. There's quite a few about what the impact 445 00:26:02,160 --> 00:26:04,359 Speaker 1: is going to be of all these policies going to 446 00:26:04,400 --> 00:26:07,720 Speaker 1: be on productivity, because that is something that many of 447 00:26:07,840 --> 00:26:11,719 Speaker 1: us have talked about, indeed wanted politicians to focus on 448 00:26:12,160 --> 00:26:13,879 Speaker 1: over the last few years. And it struck me that 449 00:26:13,920 --> 00:26:15,800 Speaker 1: there's a kind of broader thing about growth, you know, 450 00:26:15,880 --> 00:26:18,719 Speaker 1: you see I see a lot of the investment banks 451 00:26:18,720 --> 00:26:22,920 Speaker 1: and independent economists analysis of different economic scenarios after after 452 00:26:22,960 --> 00:26:26,640 Speaker 1: the election, and it's quite striking that they all they 453 00:26:26,680 --> 00:26:28,879 Speaker 1: can't really get around the fact that growth is they 454 00:26:28,920 --> 00:26:31,399 Speaker 1: would expect the economy to be larger and growth to 455 00:26:31,440 --> 00:26:34,399 Speaker 1: be faster under the Labor Party because they are in 456 00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:37,840 Speaker 1: putting the fiscal policies the stimulus of the next few years, 457 00:26:38,160 --> 00:26:42,119 Speaker 1: they're also looking at the very least the assumption is 458 00:26:42,160 --> 00:26:45,040 Speaker 1: either that you might not have Brexit after second referendum, 459 00:26:45,520 --> 00:26:48,520 Speaker 1: or that you would have at least a softer form 460 00:26:48,640 --> 00:26:50,840 Speaker 1: of Brexit. And of course you can see that that 461 00:26:50,920 --> 00:26:53,959 Speaker 1: kind of goes against the grain because they also know 462 00:26:54,119 --> 00:26:56,520 Speaker 1: that there are all these policies that they might imagine 463 00:26:56,520 --> 00:26:58,960 Speaker 1: would be bad for growth. But traditionally we've been we 464 00:26:59,040 --> 00:27:02,960 Speaker 1: found it quite hard to sort of model in short 465 00:27:03,000 --> 00:27:06,520 Speaker 1: time for forecast those kind of dynamic effects. So how 466 00:27:06,560 --> 00:27:09,959 Speaker 1: do you think about the growth in the relative growth 467 00:27:10,040 --> 00:27:15,240 Speaker 1: impact of the manifestos if some proportion of these policies 468 00:27:15,359 --> 00:27:20,200 Speaker 1: are implemented. Yeah, that's a very in a sense, that's 469 00:27:20,240 --> 00:27:23,159 Speaker 1: the most important, one of the most important questions, but 470 00:27:23,200 --> 00:27:26,760 Speaker 1: it's an incredibly hard one m to answer and there 471 00:27:26,760 --> 00:27:30,040 Speaker 1: are big risks and with with with with both of 472 00:27:30,080 --> 00:27:33,840 Speaker 1: the main parties. So if you look at if you 473 00:27:33,840 --> 00:27:36,879 Speaker 1: look at the sort of sort of take the Conservatives 474 00:27:36,880 --> 00:27:39,040 Speaker 1: as the sort of baseline as it were, and assume 475 00:27:39,160 --> 00:27:42,439 Speaker 1: that they achieve something like the kind of Brexit that 476 00:27:42,480 --> 00:27:45,040 Speaker 1: they're they're looking for, then most of the forecasts are 477 00:27:45,080 --> 00:27:48,080 Speaker 1: for pretty miserable growth over the next five years one 478 00:27:48,160 --> 00:27:51,040 Speaker 1: and a half cent a year um something like that, 479 00:27:51,119 --> 00:27:54,360 Speaker 1: which is which is well down on what we would 480 00:27:54,400 --> 00:27:57,960 Speaker 1: normally have expected over the last fifty or sixty years. Uh. 481 00:27:58,000 --> 00:28:01,280 Speaker 1: And you know that's associated with a combination of the 482 00:28:01,400 --> 00:28:05,040 Speaker 1: costs around Brexit and just a continuation of very poor 483 00:28:05,080 --> 00:28:08,359 Speaker 1: productivity growth that we've seen for the last for the 484 00:28:08,440 --> 00:28:15,600 Speaker 1: last decade. A couple of people have asked this, are 485 00:28:15,640 --> 00:28:20,200 Speaker 1: our institutions of state, civil service, judiciary, etcetera strong enough 486 00:28:20,240 --> 00:28:24,000 Speaker 1: to withstand the assault from politicians? And what can people 487 00:28:24,040 --> 00:28:26,520 Speaker 1: do to help? I mean another version of this, in 488 00:28:26,560 --> 00:28:29,560 Speaker 1: the sense, which is more specific to Whitehall, is is 489 00:28:29,560 --> 00:28:33,320 Speaker 1: the concept of an impartial civil service likely to survive 490 00:28:34,000 --> 00:28:38,720 Speaker 1: this election and the post truth era. I say severything. 491 00:28:38,760 --> 00:28:40,840 Speaker 1: I mean, first thing, actually, levels of public trust are 492 00:28:40,880 --> 00:28:43,600 Speaker 1: quite reassuring. I remember looking at the time of the 493 00:28:43,640 --> 00:28:46,400 Speaker 1: Supreme Court judgment of the figures on trust in the judiciary, 494 00:28:46,440 --> 00:28:48,800 Speaker 1: and it was I think near eighty percent or something. 495 00:28:49,080 --> 00:28:53,040 Speaker 1: There are obviously challenges to our institutions. There's the challenge 496 00:28:53,080 --> 00:28:56,000 Speaker 1: of a sort of thinly disguised ambition among some round 497 00:28:56,040 --> 00:28:59,760 Speaker 1: the Prime Minister to politicize the civil service. There's the 498 00:29:00,000 --> 00:29:03,160 Speaker 1: horrible way in which individual civil servants were singled out 499 00:29:03,200 --> 00:29:07,080 Speaker 1: and named by politicians that I thought was shameful. Ah. 500 00:29:07,120 --> 00:29:09,800 Speaker 1: There is the fact that you know, at least and 501 00:29:09,880 --> 00:29:11,560 Speaker 1: I say at least because I think it's more but 502 00:29:11,760 --> 00:29:13,560 Speaker 1: just to peopolite. Let's say at least three of the 503 00:29:13,640 --> 00:29:16,120 Speaker 1: parties in this election are running on what you could 504 00:29:16,200 --> 00:29:19,360 Speaker 1: call populist platforms. So we have a Prime Minister running 505 00:29:19,360 --> 00:29:21,680 Speaker 1: on a platform of the people versus the Parliament that 506 00:29:21,720 --> 00:29:23,800 Speaker 1: failed them. You have a Labor Party running on the 507 00:29:23,800 --> 00:29:26,720 Speaker 1: platform of us versus the establishment that rips you off. 508 00:29:27,080 --> 00:29:31,200 Speaker 1: And you have Nigel Farage. And you know that is 509 00:29:31,200 --> 00:29:33,880 Speaker 1: a danger to our institutions in the sense that you know, 510 00:29:33,960 --> 00:29:37,400 Speaker 1: this sort of populism isn't all that helping. But I 511 00:29:37,560 --> 00:29:39,640 Speaker 1: still I'm still one of those people that thinks we're 512 00:29:39,640 --> 00:29:42,200 Speaker 1: in the middle of what is a political rather than 513 00:29:42,240 --> 00:29:45,000 Speaker 1: a constitutional crisis as yet, and I think this gets 514 00:29:45,120 --> 00:29:49,560 Speaker 1: resolved when we get a majority government. Very interesting you 515 00:29:49,600 --> 00:29:53,240 Speaker 1: say that about a majority government and what it could do, 516 00:29:53,400 --> 00:29:56,480 Speaker 1: because one of the other questions that was more fundamental 517 00:29:56,880 --> 00:30:04,760 Speaker 1: was whether Britain's concept of liberal democracy could survive either 518 00:30:04,960 --> 00:30:08,840 Speaker 1: Labor or Conservatives winning an overall majority in the next election. 519 00:30:10,720 --> 00:30:14,120 Speaker 1: It sounds like you think it could actually be a 520 00:30:14,160 --> 00:30:16,600 Speaker 1: step in the right direction. But Paul, if you have 521 00:30:16,640 --> 00:30:19,160 Speaker 1: a majority, when one thinks about when you talk about 522 00:30:19,200 --> 00:30:23,120 Speaker 1: the implausibility of some of the of the promises on 523 00:30:23,160 --> 00:30:27,200 Speaker 1: the labor side, but also the lack of clarity on 524 00:30:27,240 --> 00:30:30,240 Speaker 1: the Conservative side around the implications of some of about 525 00:30:30,320 --> 00:30:33,640 Speaker 1: Bexit and other things, there are many people in this 526 00:30:33,720 --> 00:30:36,240 Speaker 1: country who are trying to vote for a hung parliament, 527 00:30:36,280 --> 00:30:41,840 Speaker 1: even though the system makes it very difficult. Um, without 528 00:30:41,960 --> 00:30:45,479 Speaker 1: putting you too much on the spot, um, do you 529 00:30:45,960 --> 00:30:49,200 Speaker 1: all of you actually do you fundamentally think we would 530 00:30:49,240 --> 00:30:52,280 Speaker 1: be in a better or worse place with another round 531 00:30:52,320 --> 00:30:54,920 Speaker 1: of hung parliament or whatever the outcome, We'd be better 532 00:30:54,960 --> 00:30:58,760 Speaker 1: with a majority parliament. One thing that majority on either 533 00:30:58,840 --> 00:31:01,640 Speaker 1: side would tell us, which I think we just don't 534 00:31:01,640 --> 00:31:04,920 Speaker 1: know at the moment is what actually are their priorities? UM, 535 00:31:04,960 --> 00:31:08,480 Speaker 1: So you know, I think you know, it is implausible 536 00:31:08,520 --> 00:31:11,480 Speaker 1: that the Labor could implement its manifesto in a parliament. 537 00:31:11,960 --> 00:31:14,440 Speaker 1: It is not implausible that it could put us on 538 00:31:14,440 --> 00:31:17,840 Speaker 1: a path towards implementing it over two or three parliaments 539 00:31:17,840 --> 00:31:22,080 Speaker 1: and make big changes within one. UM, But we don't 540 00:31:22,120 --> 00:31:24,560 Speaker 1: know how they would do it, what they would do first, 541 00:31:24,640 --> 00:31:27,240 Speaker 1: what they'll prioritize, or any of those things. So what 542 00:31:27,360 --> 00:31:29,520 Speaker 1: the world would look like in five years time under 543 00:31:29,560 --> 00:31:32,320 Speaker 1: that world, we don't know it. Equally, we don't know 544 00:31:32,360 --> 00:31:35,000 Speaker 1: what a Tory majority would do because their manifesto says 545 00:31:35,040 --> 00:31:39,360 Speaker 1: so remarkably little. So I mean, at least a majority 546 00:31:39,480 --> 00:31:42,600 Speaker 1: would would would tell us what one side actually wanted 547 00:31:42,920 --> 00:31:47,280 Speaker 1: presumably um and what it's what it's actual priorities were. 548 00:31:48,400 --> 00:31:51,600 Speaker 1: Either either one winning a majority would clearly, you know, 549 00:31:51,800 --> 00:31:53,520 Speaker 1: if labeled one a majority, we'd have to be a 550 00:31:53,600 --> 00:31:56,160 Speaker 1: very different country in five years time to the country 551 00:31:56,160 --> 00:32:00,080 Speaker 1: we would be if the Conservatives one a majority. But 552 00:32:00,160 --> 00:32:02,480 Speaker 1: I think it also asked the question about what what 553 00:32:02,680 --> 00:32:05,560 Speaker 1: is then the impact on the next election, And going 554 00:32:05,600 --> 00:32:07,240 Speaker 1: back to what Anan was saying, I mean, if the 555 00:32:07,280 --> 00:32:09,640 Speaker 1: Conservators win a majority by winning a bunch of these 556 00:32:09,680 --> 00:32:14,080 Speaker 1: seats in the Midlands and the North, and the economy 557 00:32:14,120 --> 00:32:16,840 Speaker 1: doesn't look too hot in five years time because of 558 00:32:16,880 --> 00:32:19,880 Speaker 1: a particularly hard Brexit or what have you. You can 559 00:32:19,920 --> 00:32:21,920 Speaker 1: imagine that we swing one way this time and then 560 00:32:21,960 --> 00:32:26,120 Speaker 1: swing very dramatically the other way next time. And the 561 00:32:26,160 --> 00:32:30,800 Speaker 1: same may or to be true of labor towards towards Conservatives. 562 00:32:30,800 --> 00:32:32,680 Speaker 1: So I suppose one of the risks, as it were, 563 00:32:33,160 --> 00:32:35,600 Speaker 1: of majority on either side is you get lots of 564 00:32:35,720 --> 00:32:37,440 Speaker 1: change which we don't know which were direction it will 565 00:32:37,440 --> 00:32:40,560 Speaker 1: be inexactly or where it will be this time, and 566 00:32:40,560 --> 00:32:43,000 Speaker 1: then the next part of just undoes it again because 567 00:32:43,000 --> 00:32:46,280 Speaker 1: of this kind of because of this polarization and where 568 00:32:46,960 --> 00:32:48,880 Speaker 1: where the parties are. So I think the you know, 569 00:32:48,960 --> 00:32:51,240 Speaker 1: the going back to what bron we were saying that 570 00:32:51,280 --> 00:32:54,120 Speaker 1: our electoral system and you know, in a sense the 571 00:32:54,400 --> 00:32:57,160 Speaker 1: we the in party democracy, which I think is actually 572 00:32:57,240 --> 00:33:00,320 Speaker 1: kind of you know, driving this polarization within the electoral 573 00:33:00,400 --> 00:33:03,360 Speaker 1: system that we have. I mean, you could imagine bigger 574 00:33:03,440 --> 00:33:07,120 Speaker 1: swings Parliament to Parliament if we get majorities at each 575 00:33:07,480 --> 00:33:10,600 Speaker 1: in each case, which itself could be our supposed destabilizing. 576 00:33:10,880 --> 00:33:14,120 Speaker 1: Although the system doesn't work very well without majority government 577 00:33:14,120 --> 00:33:17,560 Speaker 1: in parliament, all kinds of conventions of that parliament don't 578 00:33:17,600 --> 00:33:20,440 Speaker 1: work very well. I'm not sure that British people will 579 00:33:20,480 --> 00:33:23,440 Speaker 1: feel that if we do have this swinging around, that 580 00:33:23,480 --> 00:33:27,240 Speaker 1: they are very well represented by these majorities getting in Alternately, 581 00:33:27,480 --> 00:33:30,320 Speaker 1: and Brexit has proved a very good case of that 582 00:33:30,520 --> 00:33:35,080 Speaker 1: of the narrow losing minority not feeling that their views 583 00:33:35,080 --> 00:33:38,360 Speaker 1: are represented, and possibly some of those who voted um 584 00:33:38,640 --> 00:33:41,800 Speaker 1: leave not feeling that Boris Johnson's version of le represents 585 00:33:41,880 --> 00:33:44,520 Speaker 1: them either. And I think going to your question Stephanie, 586 00:33:44,520 --> 00:33:47,000 Speaker 1: about you know, is our version of liberal democracy going 587 00:33:47,040 --> 00:33:49,640 Speaker 1: to hold up. I'm not sure without a change in 588 00:33:49,640 --> 00:33:52,920 Speaker 1: the voting system that people are going to feel represented 589 00:33:53,400 --> 00:33:55,560 Speaker 1: by this in the way that they would like to. 590 00:33:56,000 --> 00:34:00,200 Speaker 1: And there's that potentially accelerated by having having another unclear result. 591 00:34:01,960 --> 00:34:04,440 Speaker 1: I think it's happening anyway. I think both the majority 592 00:34:04,960 --> 00:34:07,960 Speaker 1: that charges for something that much of the country doesn't 593 00:34:08,000 --> 00:34:10,799 Speaker 1: want or hung parliament that just makes everyone feel like 594 00:34:11,120 --> 00:34:16,640 Speaker 1: we can't stand anymore of this can do it. But 595 00:34:16,680 --> 00:34:19,880 Speaker 1: a hung parliament would at least force the question of 596 00:34:19,880 --> 00:34:23,800 Speaker 1: whether a change in the voting system was necessary because 597 00:34:23,800 --> 00:34:26,080 Speaker 1: it's that is such a nice clear ending, and we 598 00:34:26,160 --> 00:34:30,319 Speaker 1: have run out of time. I will leave it there. 599 00:34:30,360 --> 00:34:35,440 Speaker 1: We have had clarity, We've had rigor we have, even 600 00:34:35,480 --> 00:34:39,000 Speaker 1: if you look very carefully, had crumbs of optimism here 601 00:34:39,040 --> 00:34:42,480 Speaker 1: and there. Whether whether I come away with a reason 602 00:34:42,640 --> 00:34:45,120 Speaker 1: to have a spring in my step as I approached 603 00:34:45,120 --> 00:34:47,480 Speaker 1: the polling station in a little over a week's time, 604 00:34:47,560 --> 00:34:50,799 Speaker 1: I'm not sure, but thank you very much to the 605 00:34:50,920 --> 00:35:04,640 Speaker 1: truth tellers, Paul Johnson, Bromomatics and Anna mental m. Now 606 00:35:05,200 --> 00:35:07,440 Speaker 1: I'm going to have a quick word with Dan Hanson, 607 00:35:07,680 --> 00:35:10,640 Speaker 1: who's our senior UK economists who actually came to Bloomberg 608 00:35:10,640 --> 00:35:14,480 Speaker 1: a few years ago from Her Majesty's Treasury. No less, Dan, 609 00:35:14,800 --> 00:35:17,799 Speaker 1: we heard from the experts. They're a lot about the 610 00:35:18,000 --> 00:35:22,080 Speaker 1: long term impact on the economy of various scenarios for 611 00:35:22,160 --> 00:35:26,680 Speaker 1: Brexit and for the election, But you've been thinking about 612 00:35:26,719 --> 00:35:29,359 Speaker 1: sort of a more short term outlook for the UK 613 00:35:29,880 --> 00:35:32,400 Speaker 1: and how it could be affected by the election. What 614 00:35:32,440 --> 00:35:35,880 Speaker 1: should we expect. Yeah, that's right. So it's no secret 615 00:35:35,960 --> 00:35:39,240 Speaker 1: that elections in the UK have become increasingly hard to predict, 616 00:35:39,320 --> 00:35:41,279 Speaker 1: and we only have to look back to to be 617 00:35:41,360 --> 00:35:44,279 Speaker 1: reminded of that. Um So, with that in mind, as 618 00:35:44,320 --> 00:35:46,440 Speaker 1: you as you just said, we've been thinking about scenarios 619 00:35:46,480 --> 00:35:49,280 Speaker 1: and we've been thinking about three in particular. The first 620 00:35:49,360 --> 00:35:52,680 Speaker 1: is that Boris Johnson gets the majority he's looking for, 621 00:35:52,760 --> 00:35:54,799 Speaker 1: which most which if you looked at the polls, you'd 622 00:35:54,800 --> 00:35:56,600 Speaker 1: say that still that was the most likely. You look 623 00:35:56,600 --> 00:35:58,799 Speaker 1: at the polls, you look at bookmakers odds, they'repending about 624 00:35:59,640 --> 00:36:02,560 Speaker 1: chance on it. And for the economy, we think that 625 00:36:02,600 --> 00:36:05,200 Speaker 1: would mean a few things. We think there would be 626 00:36:05,239 --> 00:36:09,560 Speaker 1: some modest pickup in business investment. We don't think all 627 00:36:09,560 --> 00:36:11,600 Speaker 1: of the investment that was lost over the past three 628 00:36:11,680 --> 00:36:14,280 Speaker 1: years going to come back. One of the big questions 629 00:36:14,360 --> 00:36:16,480 Speaker 1: for the first six months of any new Tory government 630 00:36:16,480 --> 00:36:19,240 Speaker 1: will be will they extend the transition period, the Brexit 631 00:36:19,280 --> 00:36:22,080 Speaker 1: transition period. That question is going to come up in 632 00:36:22,120 --> 00:36:24,520 Speaker 1: the summer, at the end of June, because there's this 633 00:36:24,560 --> 00:36:27,080 Speaker 1: point back, can you really do the whole trade deal 634 00:36:27,120 --> 00:36:29,640 Speaker 1: in twelve months, which is what their theory they're planning 635 00:36:29,640 --> 00:36:33,480 Speaker 1: to do. Theoretically, yes, but experience shows that that that's 636 00:36:33,800 --> 00:36:37,480 Speaker 1: highly highly ambitious. Um. The other thing you've got to 637 00:36:37,480 --> 00:36:40,120 Speaker 1: look out for for the economy and growth next year's 638 00:36:40,120 --> 00:36:43,120 Speaker 1: fiscal policy. We know that fiscal policy is gonna be 639 00:36:43,120 --> 00:36:46,719 Speaker 1: loosening quite significantly. A big question here is will the 640 00:36:46,760 --> 00:36:49,560 Speaker 1: Tories be able to find all these investment projects, bring 641 00:36:49,600 --> 00:36:54,360 Speaker 1: them online quickly and will they provide a real return? 642 00:36:54,440 --> 00:36:56,960 Speaker 1: I mean, there's there's likely to be a demand boost 643 00:36:57,040 --> 00:36:59,280 Speaker 1: because you put people in employment, you pay them wages, 644 00:36:59,320 --> 00:37:01,160 Speaker 1: they spend the ash. But will they have a long 645 00:37:01,239 --> 00:37:03,799 Speaker 1: term benefit these projects that are coming online, And the 646 00:37:03,800 --> 00:37:05,200 Speaker 1: Bank of England's going to look at that. So if 647 00:37:05,200 --> 00:37:07,399 Speaker 1: you have you have a have a conservative majority. Still 648 00:37:07,440 --> 00:37:10,759 Speaker 1: got uncertainty around Brexit. What does that mean for for 649 00:37:10,880 --> 00:37:14,359 Speaker 1: interest rates? So of you is that it means stay 650 00:37:14,360 --> 00:37:17,840 Speaker 1: on hold. They've been on hold for a while. I 651 00:37:17,840 --> 00:37:20,640 Speaker 1: mean I think they've they've moved in a dubbish direction. Um, 652 00:37:20,840 --> 00:37:23,839 Speaker 1: that's pretty clear. But I think with the combination of 653 00:37:24,040 --> 00:37:26,640 Speaker 1: some pick up We're not talking about a big, big 654 00:37:26,640 --> 00:37:28,840 Speaker 1: increase in business investment, but some pick up in business 655 00:37:28,880 --> 00:37:33,960 Speaker 1: investment and a pretty big fiscal policy loosening on the horizon. Remember, 656 00:37:33,960 --> 00:37:35,799 Speaker 1: the Bank England looks over three years and they hit 657 00:37:35,840 --> 00:37:38,600 Speaker 1: trying to hit inflation in two years, hit the inflation 658 00:37:38,640 --> 00:37:41,920 Speaker 1: target in two years time. Um, those two things together. 659 00:37:41,960 --> 00:37:44,759 Speaker 1: We think balance of probability, the next move will be 660 00:37:44,880 --> 00:37:47,480 Speaker 1: up rather than down. But they're going to wait for that, 661 00:37:47,600 --> 00:37:49,680 Speaker 1: for that cyclical boost to come through, all right, And 662 00:37:49,719 --> 00:37:52,520 Speaker 1: that's if you have a full majority. That what as 663 00:37:52,560 --> 00:37:55,359 Speaker 1: the bookmakers would would predict now, which is a Conservative 664 00:37:55,400 --> 00:37:58,759 Speaker 1: majority under Prime Minister Boris Johnson. But the polls have 665 00:37:58,840 --> 00:38:01,759 Speaker 1: narrowed a little bit, and as you said, they've been 666 00:38:01,760 --> 00:38:05,400 Speaker 1: wrong recently, particularly because Brexit kind of scrambles the numbers 667 00:38:05,400 --> 00:38:07,799 Speaker 1: in various ways. Lots of people might be even more 668 00:38:07,840 --> 00:38:10,120 Speaker 1: than usual, might be voting tactically in some of these 669 00:38:10,200 --> 00:38:12,800 Speaker 1: places where they want people who don't want to see 670 00:38:13,280 --> 00:38:16,640 Speaker 1: Brexit so quickly. What are the other outcomes and is 671 00:38:16,680 --> 00:38:18,880 Speaker 1: it if you're stepping back, what is it. Is it 672 00:38:18,880 --> 00:38:20,560 Speaker 1: going to make a real difference to the economy in 673 00:38:20,600 --> 00:38:22,480 Speaker 1: the next twelve months. I think it will. I mean 674 00:38:22,520 --> 00:38:24,759 Speaker 1: that the other outcome we've been looking at is if 675 00:38:24,840 --> 00:38:27,440 Speaker 1: we have what we have now, where you have a 676 00:38:27,440 --> 00:38:31,000 Speaker 1: Tory minority, they have the most seats in Parliament, but 677 00:38:31,440 --> 00:38:33,600 Speaker 1: they can't form a government because no one else wants 678 00:38:33,640 --> 00:38:35,520 Speaker 1: to support them. They don't have the support the d 679 00:38:35,640 --> 00:38:38,120 Speaker 1: UP for example. But it's also the case that all 680 00:38:38,120 --> 00:38:40,600 Speaker 1: the other parties can't form a government, and certainly a 681 00:38:40,600 --> 00:38:45,200 Speaker 1: stable government, a stable what would be a coalition. And 682 00:38:45,239 --> 00:38:47,760 Speaker 1: in that world, we would expect the economy to perform 683 00:38:47,800 --> 00:38:50,240 Speaker 1: pretty similarly to how it's done over the past twelve months, 684 00:38:50,560 --> 00:38:54,239 Speaker 1: which is not very well. Yeah, it's you'd have a 685 00:38:54,360 --> 00:38:57,080 Speaker 1: you'd have a world, we think at least where growth 686 00:38:57,080 --> 00:38:59,959 Speaker 1: would stay around the point two percent quarter on course 687 00:39:00,080 --> 00:39:04,839 Speaker 1: mark that's point eight percent annualized growth, and we think 688 00:39:04,840 --> 00:39:06,680 Speaker 1: at least the trend rate for greasing the economy is 689 00:39:06,680 --> 00:39:09,560 Speaker 1: about point four percent or one point six percent annualized. 690 00:39:09,640 --> 00:39:12,400 Speaker 1: So the Bank of England's looking at that the world. 691 00:39:12,440 --> 00:39:14,680 Speaker 1: This is a world of entrenched uncertainty and it's a 692 00:39:14,719 --> 00:39:16,719 Speaker 1: scenario they have warned about and why a couple of 693 00:39:16,760 --> 00:39:21,440 Speaker 1: policymakers in November voted for a cut. If that begins 694 00:39:21,480 --> 00:39:24,160 Speaker 1: to come to fruition, we think it's more likely than 695 00:39:24,200 --> 00:39:27,440 Speaker 1: not that they'd actually loosen policy. And it's so funny 696 00:39:27,480 --> 00:39:29,160 Speaker 1: that the things that add to the list of things 697 00:39:29,160 --> 00:39:31,160 Speaker 1: to be uncertain about. Remember, we've got the Bank of 698 00:39:31,160 --> 00:39:33,520 Speaker 1: England Governor Mark Harney, who many people will have got 699 00:39:33,520 --> 00:39:35,480 Speaker 1: to know over the years. He was supposed to be 700 00:39:35,480 --> 00:39:37,239 Speaker 1: stepping down. We'll he's supposed to have stepped down loads 701 00:39:37,239 --> 00:39:38,680 Speaker 1: of times, and he's each time he's had to have 702 00:39:38,719 --> 00:39:41,040 Speaker 1: an extension. He is supposed to be stepping down at 703 00:39:41,040 --> 00:39:42,719 Speaker 1: the end of January. We don't know who's going to 704 00:39:42,760 --> 00:39:47,440 Speaker 1: replace him because people were waiting. We're waiting for this election. UM. 705 00:39:47,480 --> 00:39:50,080 Speaker 1: So that is another thing that will be uncertain about. 706 00:39:50,320 --> 00:39:53,600 Speaker 1: I guess even if Labor against the Odds were able 707 00:39:53,640 --> 00:39:56,360 Speaker 1: to form a government, maybe they don't win a majority, 708 00:39:56,440 --> 00:39:59,560 Speaker 1: but a kind of gang together with these other remaining 709 00:39:59,600 --> 00:40:03,920 Speaker 1: party these remain parties Lib Dems and the Scottish Nationalists 710 00:40:03,960 --> 00:40:10,080 Speaker 1: for example. UM. That also means uncertainty because we don't 711 00:40:10,080 --> 00:40:12,040 Speaker 1: know what we even under that scenario. You don't really 712 00:40:12,040 --> 00:40:13,880 Speaker 1: know what's going to happen with Brexit anything. So it 713 00:40:13,920 --> 00:40:15,440 Speaker 1: sort of feels like this is an election that was 714 00:40:15,480 --> 00:40:17,759 Speaker 1: sold to people, as you know, getting Brexit done and 715 00:40:17,840 --> 00:40:23,600 Speaker 1: resolving things. Under all three scenarios, the uncertainty affecting the 716 00:40:23,640 --> 00:40:27,440 Speaker 1: economy continued, and you will have plenty still to do. 717 00:40:28,200 --> 00:40:37,040 Speaker 1: Thank you, Thank you very much for that, Thanks for 718 00:40:37,080 --> 00:40:40,000 Speaker 1: listening to Stephanomics. We'll be back next week talking about 719 00:40:40,160 --> 00:40:42,960 Speaker 1: India and probably trying not to talk about the UK 720 00:40:43,080 --> 00:40:45,239 Speaker 1: election in the meantime. You can find us on the 721 00:40:45,280 --> 00:40:49,160 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Terminal website, app or wherever you get your podcasts, 722 00:40:49,440 --> 00:40:52,480 Speaker 1: and for more news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics, follow 723 00:40:52,640 --> 00:40:55,520 Speaker 1: at Economics on Twitter. You can also find me on 724 00:40:55,680 --> 00:40:59,600 Speaker 1: at my Stephanomics. The debate featured in this episode was 725 00:40:59,680 --> 00:41:03,040 Speaker 1: held at the Royal Institution in Central London. It was 726 00:41:03,080 --> 00:41:06,200 Speaker 1: co hosted by the Institute for Fiscal Studies, the Institute 727 00:41:06,200 --> 00:41:09,560 Speaker 1: for Government and the UK in a Changing Europe. The 728 00:41:09,600 --> 00:41:13,320 Speaker 1: show was produced by Magnus Hendrickson and edited by Scott Lamman, 729 00:41:13,600 --> 00:41:18,320 Speaker 1: who is also the executive producer of Stephanomics. Special thanks 730 00:41:18,320 --> 00:41:22,800 Speaker 1: to Dan Hansen, Paul Johnson, Bromwin Maddox, Anna Menon, Greg 731 00:41:22,800 --> 00:41:26,719 Speaker 1: Opie and Bonnie Brimstone. Francesca Levie is the head of 732 00:41:26,719 --> 00:41:27,719 Speaker 1: Bloombergh podcast