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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna just mop that action all all right, Here

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Speaker 2: we go throwing in job spec. I'm sitting up to

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Speaker 2: cash times. We see most gamblers when they go to gamble,

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Speaker 2: they go to wind.

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Speaker 1: That's incredible being bank, small bank, I like to make money.

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Speaker 3: All right, this is the ultimate kaba you want to

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Speaker 3: pack and we are underway.

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Speaker 1: Welcome everyone to the Action Network prop a Puloosa.

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Speaker 3: Here's what we're gonna do.

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Speaker 1: It's time for our first prop drop of Super Bowl season.

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Speaker 1: I have grant me for alongside me on Nick Giffin,

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Speaker 1: and we'll be giving out our first.

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Speaker 3: Set of props.

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Speaker 1: Then at six pm Eastern time, Chris Raybond Sean Kerner

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Speaker 1: will be right back here giving out their first trio

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Speaker 1: of game props. And then after all of that, we're

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Speaker 1: gonna do it again next Wednesday. Finally, we're all gonna

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Speaker 1: sweat these bets together when we watch Super Bowl fifty nine.

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Speaker 1: I know I'll be in the Action Network discord, so

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Speaker 1: make sure to join us there to sweat it together.

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Speaker 1: Also for each pick, as soon as we give out

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Speaker 1: our picks, we'll be giving you easy to use links

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Speaker 1: that instantly plays our bets, right here in the YouTube chat.

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Speaker 3: Then as soon as we wrap.

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Speaker 1: Up, we also be dropping a link in the episode

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Speaker 1: description down below that gives you access to all the

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Speaker 1: picks we give out on the show. So with that said, Grant,

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Speaker 1: it is time to jump in our first set of

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Speaker 1: Super Bowl fifty nine props.

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Speaker 3: What's your first one?

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Speaker 2: Grant?

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Speaker 4: Well, I wanted to do heads, but I'm still of

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Speaker 4: which said I'm gonna go, and they won't let me

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Speaker 4: get betted in Colorado unfortunately, so they have to drive

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Speaker 4: across the border.

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Speaker 2: But I'm going with Xavier Worthy.

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Speaker 4: Anytime touchdown score now you can find anywhere between I

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Speaker 4: think one fifty plus one fifty and plus one seventy five.

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Speaker 4: I still like it at plus one fifty. I think

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Speaker 4: this line's quite a bit off Worthy. He has been

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Speaker 4: fantastic the seventh half of the season, and we've kind

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Speaker 4: of seen this this year and last year like we've

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Speaker 4: seen it before with the Chiefs, where they try and

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Speaker 4: figure out how to use receivers in what way.

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Speaker 2: Like Rice.

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Speaker 4: At the beginning of last season or his first season,

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Speaker 4: he wasn't really used that much, and then as the

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Speaker 4: season went on, he got used more and more.

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Speaker 2: Red is scheming so many plays for him.

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Speaker 4: I mean, he has what over two rushing two plus

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Speaker 4: rushing attempts, and for the last five games he's been

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Speaker 4: used heavily in the red zone. I think he has

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Speaker 4: the most red zone opportunity he's over the last four

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Speaker 4: games with fifteen he's used in rushing and receiving plays

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Speaker 4: in the red zone. And he probably would have been

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Speaker 4: used a little bit more if they didn't decide to

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Speaker 4: throw something entirely different with Mahomes's designed run in the

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Speaker 4: last game. He's the leader outside of Kelsey in snaps

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Speaker 4: on this team, and he's just being used in every

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Speaker 4: single facet, especially in the red zone by far the

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Speaker 4: biggest red zone target here. So plus one seventy five

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Speaker 4: for the wide receiver one in this spot. And I

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Speaker 4: know there's Kelsey there, and I know Han will steal

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Speaker 4: some touchdowns. We'll get to that later. But this game's

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Speaker 4: going to be decently high scoring. It's close to fifty total,

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Speaker 4: might end up at fifty before game time, might be

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Speaker 4: overhity before game time. But Worthy is going to be

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Speaker 4: used so heavily here that the odds just don't reflect

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Speaker 4: how much he's going to be used.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree with all of that. Look our prop projections.

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Speaker 1: If you have Action pro you can see all of

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Speaker 1: our prop projections. Xavier Worthy is one of our biggest

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Speaker 1: anytime touchdown values. I personally have him in the plus

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Speaker 1: one forties, so Grant, like you said, plus one fifty

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Speaker 1: even although we have to plus one seventy five is

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Speaker 1: kind of the range out there. All of those are

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Speaker 1: showing as value by me. But for my first pick,

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Speaker 1: and this is not a pick against you, Grants, because

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Speaker 1: we'll talk about this in just a bit, but my

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Speaker 1: first pick is Xavi. You're worthy to actually go under

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Speaker 1: five and a half receptions. You can get that at

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Speaker 1: minus one twenty five. I'm only going to play this

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Speaker 1: to win half a unit. I'm not going full unit

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Speaker 1: on this one. I'll explain why and.

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Speaker 2: Just a bit.

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Speaker 3: But you mentioned xavier' Worthy.

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Speaker 1: He has been an absolute workhorse. They've been scheming him

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Speaker 1: up and it shows. In the last five games. His

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Speaker 1: usage rate is through the roof, even especially in targets.

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Speaker 1: But I think that's also pushing this line upward. And

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Speaker 1: even if this volume remains high, his efficiency has also

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Speaker 1: been just too high. He has a seventy three percent

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Speaker 1: catch rate. Over the last nine games, which is six

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Speaker 1: percent over expected based off of depth of target and

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Speaker 1: coverage and things like that. So uh, you know, he

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Speaker 1: should be more around a sixty seven percent catch rate

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Speaker 1: just on average in the spots he's faced in the

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Speaker 1: last nine games. But now he faces the Philadelphia Eagles,

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Speaker 1: you know, and they're trio cornerbacks, is just amazing, Quenyon Mitchell,

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Speaker 1: Darius Slay, Cooper Degen and in the playoffs, Xavier Worthy

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Speaker 1: has lined up out wide or in the slot on

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Speaker 1: ninety six percent of his snaps. So that's gonna match

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Speaker 1: him up against those trio of backs, that three headed

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Speaker 1: monster there in Philly all top twenty five graded cornerbacks by.

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Speaker 3: Pro Football Focus. And when Xavier Worthy.

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Speaker 1: Does line up out wide, uh, he.

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Speaker 3: Skews more towards the left.

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Speaker 1: And Quinyon Mitchell is the Eagles right cornerback right line

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Speaker 1: up with the defensive right, which is the offensive left.

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Speaker 1: So that'll put you know, xavier' Worthy here up against

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Speaker 1: the eagles toughest cornerback in Quinnon Mitchell, outstanding first round

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Speaker 1: rookie pick. So overall, when you blend the amount of

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Speaker 1: snaps he should face versus Mitchell, versus Sleigh Cooper Dejen

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Speaker 1: I'm expecting about a six and a half percent lower

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Speaker 1: catch rate than expected, and of course that's added on

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Speaker 1: to that x six percent. He's come over expectations, so

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Speaker 1: you know, around to twelve percent lower expected catch rate

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Speaker 1: than he's had in his past nine games. I also

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Speaker 1: personally bet Patrick Mahomes under thirty six and a half

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Speaker 1: pass attempts. I talked about that on the Favorites podcast

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Speaker 1: and you can see it in my Action network right up.

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Speaker 1: Fewer pass attempts, fewer chances to catch the ball. So

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Speaker 1: I'm projecting Xavi You're Worthy at a little over five receptions,

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Speaker 1: about a sixty sixty two percent chance he stays under

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Speaker 1: five and a half.

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Speaker 3: But Grant, here's why.

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Speaker 1: I'm only going half a unit on this, because the

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Speaker 1: other half unit I have parlayed yours Xavier Worthy anytime

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Speaker 1: touchdown with the Xavier Worthy under on receptions and I

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Speaker 1: want your analysis on this, Grant. I think it makes

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Speaker 1: a lot of sense, especially knowing they've also been handing

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Speaker 1: the ball off to him in the red zone.

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Speaker 4: Yeah no, So, I mean that's the thing we people

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Speaker 4: might look at this and say, oh, why would you

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Speaker 4: do that unco our anti correlated bet.

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Speaker 2: Well, there's a few different reasons.

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Speaker 4: One, yes, he's averaging two or over two rushing attempts

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Speaker 4: per game in the last five games and the Super Bowl. Well,

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Speaker 4: I'm guessing he's probably going to end up with two

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Speaker 4: or three here potentially more they're scheming a lot of

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Speaker 4: plays for him. Number Two, he has fifteen red zone

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Speaker 4: opportunities in the red zone in the last four games.

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Speaker 4: In that timeframe, he has I think thirty six thirty

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Speaker 4: five targets, and he has six rushing attempts seven rushing attempts,

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Speaker 4: so roughly like thirty eight to forty percent of his

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Speaker 4: total opportunities are actually in the red zone. They purposely

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Speaker 4: scheme that, and they're more likely to scheme a rush

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Speaker 4: in the red zone. I think he said four in

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Speaker 4: the last four games, So they're not perfectly anti correlated. Again,

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Speaker 4: it's not that likely that he'll end up with six

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Speaker 4: receptions in the spot and you're really betting the number

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Speaker 4: because my immediate thought when I was going in to

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Speaker 4: do research for this stuff was I'm going to look

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Speaker 4: at worthy over receptions immediately, and then I see it

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Speaker 4: at five and a half, I think I saw it

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Speaker 4: six and a half over at DK, I'm like, oh,

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Speaker 4: they've adjusted this too much. The difference between five and

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Speaker 4: a half receptions at minus one twenty five and six

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Speaker 4: and a half receptions at minus one twenty five and

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Speaker 4: four and a half receptions of minus one twenty five

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Speaker 4: is just a whole world of difference, Like it's massive.

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Speaker 4: So what people don't often realize is the number is

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Speaker 4: really what matters, and five and a half receptions is

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Speaker 4: drastically higher than four and a half receptions even though

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Speaker 4: it's one. The difference in odds of winning a bet

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Speaker 4: is huge, and so the number is just too high here.

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Speaker 4: And also you have all those rushing attempts, so it

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Speaker 4: makes a huge difference in these things. And realistically receptions

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Speaker 4: are too high and the touchdown number odds are too high.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so that would be parlaying both Grant and my picks.

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Speaker 2: Here.

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Speaker 1: Say if you were they anytime touchdown with under five

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Speaker 1: and a half receptions right now, I think the best

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Speaker 1: of all about plus four twenty five. If you tailed

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Speaker 1: me a couple of days ago, I got at plus

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Speaker 1: four seventy five. Still like it at that plus four

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Speaker 1: to twenty five number, and Grant, you did mention the

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Speaker 1: coin toss a little bit. I did do the math

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Speaker 1: on the coin toss. Both head coaches have deferred one

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Speaker 1: hundred percent of the time the last three years, so

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Speaker 1: it is a true fifty to fifty proposition on who

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Speaker 1: will start with the ball, assuming the coin is actually fair.

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Speaker 1: It's not biased towards heads or not biased towards tales,

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Speaker 1: and I think in the Super Bowl history it's thirty

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Speaker 1: to twenty eight.

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Speaker 3: So I'm not.

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Speaker 1: Betting on the coin toss, but if you want to

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Speaker 1: bet on it, it's all for fun. So the stage

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Speaker 1: is set for Super Bowl fifty nine and there's many

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Speaker 1: prop bets that comes. That means now is the perfect

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Speaker 1: time to upgrade to an Action Pro subscription because only

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Speaker 1: Action Pro subscribers get real time pick alerts from our

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Speaker 1: experts like super Bowl Prop Master Sean Kerner and Chris Raybond,

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Speaker 1: myself and Grant, plus all the tools you need from

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Speaker 1: turning a profit betting in twenty twenty five. Right now,

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Speaker 1: dollars off for the full year so you'll be covered

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Speaker 1: for the Super Bowl, March Madness, Baseball, NBA, and even

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Speaker 1: next college football and NFL season.

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Speaker 3: So don't wait.

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Speaker 1: Visit actionnetwork dot com slash SB to get forty dollars

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Speaker 1: off of Action Pro. All right, it is time for

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Speaker 1: our second pick here on the Propapalooza, and I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: kick it off or pick number two, and I'm.

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Speaker 3: Going super chocky grant.

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Speaker 1: I don't care that this is the number one most

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Speaker 1: bet player prop. I'm taking Dallas Goddard receptions, but in

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Speaker 1: this case, instead of taking over four and a half receptions,

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna ladder his alt reception. So I'm gonna take

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Speaker 1: six plus at plus one sixty for a half unit,

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Speaker 1: and I'm take seven plus at plus three ten for.

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Speaker 3: A quarter unit.

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Speaker 1: I'm totally happy to side with the public. And here's

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Speaker 1: why this is one of the most likely games all

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Speaker 1: year for the Eagles to trail. Right, there were fourteen

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Speaker 1: and three in the regular season. Now they're playing the

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Speaker 1: number one team in the NFL at least based off

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Speaker 1: record this year. The Chiefs are favored, and obviously the

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Speaker 1: Eagles haven't really been underdogs that much this season, so

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Speaker 1: this sets up to be potentially one of their most

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Speaker 1: pass happy scripts of the season. Also, the Chiefs, when

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Speaker 1: we look at them defensively, they allow a target on

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Speaker 1: nineteen percent little more nineteen percent of the routes that

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Speaker 1: receivers run against them. Well, there are four main cornerbacks McDuffie,

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Speaker 1: you got nas Johnson, you have Worthy, and then I'm

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Speaker 1: sorry Watson, and then you have who's the last one.

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Speaker 1: I'm forgetting there's one other, but oh right, Nickelback. They

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Speaker 1: allow sub eighteen percent on all of their routes run.

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Speaker 1: So what that means is any other you know, defensive

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Speaker 1: area has to be above that nineteen percent and in fact,

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Speaker 1: when you do the math, it's around twenty two percent

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Speaker 1: target rate. Well, Dallas Goddard, he only lines up out

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Speaker 1: wider in the slot where these other guys will be

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Speaker 1: covering him less than forty percent of the time. So

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Speaker 1: in sixty percent of the time he will either be

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Speaker 1: in line occasionally in the backfield to be lining up

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Speaker 1: in the spots where the Chiefs allow a twenty two

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Speaker 1: percent plus target rate per route runs. So there could

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Speaker 1: be substantial volume here for Dallas Goddard. I mean the

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Speaker 1: Chiefs allow six receptions per game to the position itself,

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Speaker 1: its height end position. And then we look at this

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Speaker 1: is kind of interesting when we look at games where

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Speaker 1: Dallas Goddard played and DeVante Smith played and aj Brown played.

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Speaker 3: They've only had six.

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Speaker 1: Full games together this year because of injuries to all

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Speaker 1: three of them, and it turns out Dallas Goddard is

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Speaker 1: actually the second high targeted per route run of this trio,

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Speaker 1: ahead of DeVante Smith in those six games. And when

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Speaker 1: Jalen Hurts is pressured and Kansas City gets a top

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Speaker 1: five pressure rate and a top five blitz rate, he

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Speaker 1: targets got it at the second highest rate when all

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Speaker 1: three of those are on the field, so again ahead

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Speaker 1: of Devonte Smith. So I'm projecting five point two receptions.

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Speaker 3: Now Kerner Raybond.

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Speaker 1: They're lower than me on this, so you know, obviously

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Speaker 1: they're the goats. I definitely trust them, but my personal projections,

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Speaker 1: I have five point two receptions for Dallas Goddard, So

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Speaker 1: I love getting this significant plus money if the Eagles

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Speaker 1: are gonna trail. So those are my picks, but I

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Speaker 1: really like these. If the Eagles are trailing, this makes

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Speaker 1: a lot of sense. So you know, maybe take the

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Speaker 1: six plus with some kind of market where the Eagles

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Speaker 1: are trailing, you know, maybe a first half Kansas City

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Speaker 1: money line type thing, you can parlay those and take.

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Speaker 3: Dallas Goddard that way as well. So real quick, your

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Speaker 3: thoughts on that one great.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I like it, and I trust everything you said

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Speaker 4: was right on point. I mean, I don't generally like

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Speaker 4: going with the public too much. But also you have

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Speaker 4: to realize that we're doing this a full week and

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Speaker 4: a half before the Super, So.

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Speaker 2: Realistically, this line, the odds on this.

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Speaker 4: Line are probably going to get lower and lower, So

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Speaker 4: if you're going to go with the public, it's generally

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Speaker 4: better to do it earlier on in the week, or

278
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Speaker 4: in this case, two weeks in advance.

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Speaker 2: So I like it, and you never steal.

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Speaker 3: Here wrong exactly.

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Speaker 1: And Jamari Knor was the name that escaped me there

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Speaker 1: for Kansas City's nickelback. So Grant, let's get to your

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Speaker 1: second pick.

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Speaker 4: All right, I'm rolling with another touchdown that we're going

285
00:14:38,920 --> 00:14:42,200
Speaker 4: with cream Hunt to get a touchdown, And strangely enough,

286
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Speaker 4: I've been betting both these guys to get a touchdown

287
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Speaker 4: almost every single week for last five weeks or so,

288
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Speaker 4: and it's gone very very well because it just keep scoring.

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Speaker 4: But Hunt has just completely taken over this RB one role.

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Speaker 2: Like the checko last two weeks twenty nine and thirty one.

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Speaker 4: Percent snapshare, Hunt fifty eight and forty seven. He's the

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Speaker 4: go to guy. And it's the same in the red zone.

293
00:15:09,680 --> 00:15:13,080
Speaker 4: Hunt over the last four games played, he has nine

294
00:15:13,520 --> 00:15:17,600
Speaker 4: red zone touches. The checko has three. Like it's Hunt

295
00:15:17,680 --> 00:15:19,440
Speaker 4: and it's hunting the red zone. And I mean, Hunt

296
00:15:19,480 --> 00:15:22,080
Speaker 4: may not be a great running back, but the main

297
00:15:22,120 --> 00:15:24,680
Speaker 4: thing is if you need four yards, he's going to

298
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Speaker 4: get you four yards. If you need ten yards, he's

299
00:15:27,440 --> 00:15:30,360
Speaker 4: going to get you four yards. And in the red zone, generally,

300
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Speaker 4: when you need four yards, you'll just run the ball

301
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Speaker 4: and he's going to be the go to guy. He's

302
00:15:35,880 --> 00:15:37,680
Speaker 4: easily the go to guy in this spot. And I

303
00:15:37,680 --> 00:15:40,160
Speaker 4: know that the Eagles have allowed the second least amount

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Speaker 4: of rushing touchdowns this season. They've also allowed the fifth

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Speaker 4: least amount of passing touchdown the season. They're just a

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00:15:45,600 --> 00:15:48,680
Speaker 4: good defense that's played a lot of bad opponents. What

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Speaker 4: we care more about here is the total, which is

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Speaker 4: close to fifteen the spot.

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Speaker 2: The imply team total.

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Speaker 4: For the Chiefs is around twenty five depending on where

311
00:15:55,560 --> 00:15:58,680
Speaker 4: you're at, So there's going to be touchdowns scored. We

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Speaker 4: saw what happened in the last ever, which I get

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Speaker 4: these teams that are different, but it was a very

314
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Speaker 4: high scoring game there, thirty eight to thirty five. And

315
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Speaker 4: on top of that, Chiefs have kept games close pretty

316
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Speaker 4: much every time they've been in the Super Bowl. Last

317
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Speaker 4: year we saw an overtime game. Two years ago in

318
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Speaker 4: this exact same matchup, we almost saw an overtime game.

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Speaker 4: Overtime is also a possibility. I mean I as of

320
00:16:19,400 --> 00:16:21,320
Speaker 4: right now, I don't know what your thought process is.

321
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Speaker 4: I like the over and I'm probably going to end

322
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Speaker 4: up betting it. I think that both these teams could

323
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Speaker 4: play to their opponent. I mean, no one plays better

324
00:16:28,960 --> 00:16:32,080
Speaker 4: to their opponent than and the Chiefs do because they

325
00:16:32,320 --> 00:16:35,280
Speaker 4: are every single game within one score so likely to

326
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Speaker 4: be close as it is with every single Chiefs game,

327
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Speaker 4: and a small chance here overtime.

328
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Speaker 2: What does your model have for overtime right now?

329
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Speaker 1: For overtime right now, I'm technically showing value at thirteen

330
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Speaker 1: to one, but I haven't run the full version of

331
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Speaker 1: it where I adjust for things like kickers and whether,

332
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Speaker 1: of course, whether it's not a concern inside the dome

333
00:16:55,200 --> 00:16:59,080
Speaker 1: coaching decisions. So not fully there yet on an overtime bet.

334
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Speaker 1: But I will say you mentioned the total. Our luck

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Speaker 1: rankings also do luck totals, and our luck total for

336
00:17:05,119 --> 00:17:08,240
Speaker 1: this game is minus zero point one, so zero point

337
00:17:08,280 --> 00:17:11,520
Speaker 1: one no signal. Right, there's no luck factor where these

338
00:17:11,520 --> 00:17:14,600
Speaker 1: teams have been scoring more than expected or scoring less

339
00:17:14,640 --> 00:17:18,159
Speaker 1: than expected, So I think the total is pretty fair.

340
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Speaker 1: You lean over, and I think that's totally fine. I

341
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Speaker 1: will say, if you are taking over, make sure you

342
00:17:24,320 --> 00:17:27,240
Speaker 1: get it now before it moves up if it ever

343
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Speaker 1: crosses fifty one. That is, like the most key number

344
00:17:30,320 --> 00:17:32,879
Speaker 1: for these higher scoring games is fifty one points, So

345
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Speaker 1: if it hits fifty one, fifty one and a half,

346
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Speaker 1: then I'd probably look towards leaning toward the under. But

347
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Speaker 1: I definitely don't have a play on the total myself.

348
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Speaker 3: So we each have two picks.

349
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Speaker 1: I have one more for you all, but before we

350
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Speaker 1: get to that, I just want to let you all

351
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Speaker 1: know you don't know about this bet. What Happens Live

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00:17:51,440 --> 00:17:56,439
Speaker 1: is our live in game player prop betting show, and

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00:17:56,520 --> 00:18:00,000
Speaker 1: of course it will be here for the Super Bowl.

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Speaker 1: The show will air in the Action Network discord that

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Speaker 1: is at discord dot.

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Speaker 3: Excuse me, Discord dot gg slash Action Network.

357
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Speaker 1: All right, one more player prop for me, and I'm

358
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Speaker 1: gonna go to the defensive side of the ball. I'm

359
00:18:16,880 --> 00:18:21,440
Speaker 1: gonna take Kansas City's Jalen Watson over half an interception.

360
00:18:21,920 --> 00:18:22,560
Speaker 3: You can get that.

361
00:18:22,520 --> 00:18:26,000
Speaker 1: At plus nine to fifty if you want to find

362
00:18:26,040 --> 00:18:30,320
Speaker 1: that over at FanDuel defensive props player to record an

363
00:18:30,359 --> 00:18:34,840
Speaker 1: interception and then take Jalen Watson over half an interception

364
00:18:34,920 --> 00:18:37,159
Speaker 1: or to record an interdeption. So I'm gonna throwut a

365
00:18:37,240 --> 00:18:40,240
Speaker 1: quarter unit on that at plus nine to fifty.

366
00:18:40,920 --> 00:18:42,080
Speaker 3: Let's start with Jalen Hurts.

367
00:18:42,119 --> 00:18:44,160
Speaker 1: Of course, who's gonna be the quarterback throwing the ball

368
00:18:44,240 --> 00:18:48,199
Speaker 1: should Watson get the interception here, Hurts has had some

369
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Speaker 1: pretty significant interception luck this year in terms of avoiding interceptions.

370
00:18:52,600 --> 00:18:55,920
Speaker 1: His three point two percent turnover the turnover worthy play

371
00:18:56,000 --> 00:18:58,840
Speaker 1: rate is actually a full percentage point higher than Mahomes

372
00:18:58,840 --> 00:19:01,320
Speaker 1: at two point two percent. Now, yeah, Mahomes has had

373
00:19:01,359 --> 00:19:04,280
Speaker 1: a lot more volume, but that means their turnover worthy

374
00:19:04,280 --> 00:19:08,880
Speaker 1: plays have been about the same. Yet, Mahomes has eleven

375
00:19:08,920 --> 00:19:13,240
Speaker 1: interceptions this year to Hurts five interceptions. Jalen Hurts also

376
00:19:13,640 --> 00:19:17,560
Speaker 1: has had passes defended on eleven percent of his pass

377
00:19:17,600 --> 00:19:21,840
Speaker 1: attempts versus just nine percent for Patrick Mahomes. So certainly

378
00:19:21,840 --> 00:19:25,960
Speaker 1: some interception luck going on here for Jalen Hurts. And

379
00:19:26,000 --> 00:19:28,720
Speaker 1: then when we look at where it Hurts does throw interceptions,

380
00:19:28,960 --> 00:19:32,440
Speaker 1: his most frequent interception locations throughout the past three years

381
00:19:32,440 --> 00:19:34,720
Speaker 1: have been either deep to the left or short to

382
00:19:34,760 --> 00:19:36,720
Speaker 1: the right. I'm gonna focus on that short to the

383
00:19:36,800 --> 00:19:40,960
Speaker 1: right because Jalen Watson is the short to the right

384
00:19:41,040 --> 00:19:43,600
Speaker 1: guy for the Kansas City Chiefs. He lines up as

385
00:19:43,600 --> 00:19:47,320
Speaker 1: the Chiefs left cornerback, meaning the offensive right on around

386
00:19:47,359 --> 00:19:51,240
Speaker 1: seventy percent of the snaps that Jalen Watson plays. This year,

387
00:19:51,400 --> 00:19:56,879
Speaker 1: Watson has seven passes defended, which is five pass breakups

388
00:19:56,920 --> 00:20:00,840
Speaker 1: and two dropped interceptions in just eight games. Right, He's

389
00:20:00,840 --> 00:20:02,960
Speaker 1: only played eight games this year. He's had some injuries

390
00:20:02,960 --> 00:20:05,439
Speaker 1: that he's dealt with, but those are the highest rates

391
00:20:05,480 --> 00:20:08,720
Speaker 1: on a per game basis for the whole Kansas City

392
00:20:08,800 --> 00:20:12,119
Speaker 1: Chiefs team. In his career, he has three interceptions on

393
00:20:12,200 --> 00:20:15,360
Speaker 1: twenty four passes defended, which is actually a bit unlucky.

394
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Speaker 3: Maybe it goes to those.

395
00:20:16,160 --> 00:20:20,120
Speaker 1: Dropped I iNTS, so we'd expect around four to five

396
00:20:20,160 --> 00:20:23,359
Speaker 1: interceptions in his career, and this season he's broken up

397
00:20:23,640 --> 00:20:26,960
Speaker 1: fifteen percent of all passes that have been targeted towards him.

398
00:20:26,960 --> 00:20:30,639
Speaker 1: That's more than double the NFL average of six point

399
00:20:30,760 --> 00:20:34,040
Speaker 1: nine percent. So this all kind of matches up. Well,

400
00:20:34,080 --> 00:20:37,720
Speaker 1: you have Hurts lucky with the I ts, Watson unlucky

401
00:20:37,760 --> 00:20:40,560
Speaker 1: and getting the I tes. That's the spot where Hurts

402
00:20:40,600 --> 00:20:45,160
Speaker 1: tends to throw interceptions, and Watson has been playing outstanding

403
00:20:45,200 --> 00:20:47,920
Speaker 1: this year. So that's my final one grant. I don't

404
00:20:47,920 --> 00:20:50,280
Speaker 1: know if you have any thoughts on a defensive player

405
00:20:50,320 --> 00:20:50,800
Speaker 1: prop there.

406
00:20:50,880 --> 00:20:51,600
Speaker 2: I've got nothing.

407
00:20:51,680 --> 00:20:55,600
Speaker 4: I I've played away from that pretty much my entire

408
00:20:55,640 --> 00:21:01,159
Speaker 4: game career, and it's at I trust you.

409
00:21:02,240 --> 00:21:03,960
Speaker 1: And you know again, this is a spot where the

410
00:21:04,000 --> 00:21:06,560
Speaker 1: Eagles could be trailing more than most of the time.

411
00:21:06,600 --> 00:21:09,159
Speaker 1: They've led on sixty seven and a half percent of

412
00:21:09,200 --> 00:21:11,919
Speaker 1: the snaps this year and the games they've played, this

413
00:21:11,960 --> 00:21:13,640
Speaker 1: could be a spot where they trail in sixty seven

414
00:21:13,720 --> 00:21:14,960
Speaker 1: and a half percent of the snaps.

415
00:21:15,040 --> 00:21:19,040
Speaker 4: Right, So forced to throw is a lot different than

416
00:21:19,480 --> 00:21:23,840
Speaker 4: just Jalen Hurts throwing I mean his interception rate. Maybe

417
00:21:23,840 --> 00:21:26,760
Speaker 4: this maybe that it's going to be different when he's

418
00:21:26,760 --> 00:21:28,879
Speaker 4: in a spot where he's playing catch up, especially if

419
00:21:28,880 --> 00:21:30,639
Speaker 4: it's on the last drive, which they haven't had to

420
00:21:30,680 --> 00:21:35,320
Speaker 4: do outside of what Week four, Week two I think

421
00:21:35,359 --> 00:21:37,359
Speaker 4: were the only times they lost, and they haven't really

422
00:21:37,359 --> 00:21:40,600
Speaker 4: trailed late in the game any other time because they

423
00:21:40,600 --> 00:21:42,760
Speaker 4: can if there's fifteen minutes left and you're down by

424
00:21:42,800 --> 00:21:46,040
Speaker 4: a touchdown, they can still run the ball every single

425
00:21:46,080 --> 00:21:48,719
Speaker 4: play on that entire drive. It's a little bit different

426
00:21:48,720 --> 00:21:50,680
Speaker 4: when there's four minutes left on the clock and.

427
00:21:50,640 --> 00:21:51,840
Speaker 2: You're down by a touchdown.

428
00:21:52,040 --> 00:21:53,680
Speaker 4: You're going to be forced to throw ball, and you're

429
00:21:53,720 --> 00:21:56,320
Speaker 4: probably going to be forced to throw into more interception

430
00:21:56,560 --> 00:21:59,800
Speaker 4: worthy plays. Plus on top of that, it's going to

431
00:21:59,800 --> 00:22:02,640
Speaker 4: be a big difference when you have to not take

432
00:22:02,680 --> 00:22:04,720
Speaker 4: a sack and you have to throw the ball up

433
00:22:05,080 --> 00:22:08,080
Speaker 4: and so everything kind of points towards more interceptions because

434
00:22:08,119 --> 00:22:09,720
Speaker 4: he's probably not going to get away with throwing the

435
00:22:09,760 --> 00:22:13,919
Speaker 4: ball twenty times in the spot. So everything kind of

436
00:22:13,920 --> 00:22:17,000
Speaker 4: points towards an increase in the interceptions for Hurtz here,

437
00:22:17,400 --> 00:22:19,920
Speaker 4: and you know exactly where it's going to it sounds

438
00:22:20,000 --> 00:22:20,879
Speaker 4: like from all the numbers.

439
00:22:20,920 --> 00:22:24,040
Speaker 1: So there we go, all right, So that is going

440
00:22:24,080 --> 00:22:26,879
Speaker 1: to wrap it up. Two picks from Grant, three picks

441
00:22:26,880 --> 00:22:32,800
Speaker 1: from me for our first propapalooza. But remember Chris Raybond

442
00:22:32,800 --> 00:22:35,199
Speaker 1: and Sean Kerner we back right here in less than

443
00:22:35,240 --> 00:22:38,199
Speaker 1: two hour, six pm Eastern time to drop their props.

444
00:22:38,240 --> 00:22:40,520
Speaker 1: And let me tell you, we got some doozies on

445
00:22:40,760 --> 00:22:43,400
Speaker 1: this one as well. They're finding all the fun markets.

446
00:22:43,600 --> 00:22:47,040
Speaker 1: I'll be looking into all the ridiculous markets next week

447
00:22:47,080 --> 00:22:50,560
Speaker 1: as well, hoping to replicate some of that Christian McCaffrey

448
00:22:50,720 --> 00:22:53,640
Speaker 1: juice we captured last year with that first rushing attempt

449
00:22:53,760 --> 00:22:58,400
Speaker 1: over on his yardage. A lot of those fun, exciting,

450
00:22:58,680 --> 00:23:01,720
Speaker 1: you know, more random ish I props that you'll see

451
00:23:01,800 --> 00:23:03,800
Speaker 1: it will pop up next week. So we're gonna do

452
00:23:03,840 --> 00:23:07,120
Speaker 1: it all over again next week. But for grant me fair,

453
00:23:07,240 --> 00:23:09,879
Speaker 1: I am Nick Giffin. That'll do it for this first

454
00:23:10,119 --> 00:23:29,399
Speaker 1: propapalooza for Super Bowl fifty nine. Action Network reminds you

455
00:23:29,800 --> 00:23:33,400
Speaker 1: please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about

456
00:23:33,440 --> 00:23:36,359
Speaker 1: has a gambling problem, Help is available twenty four to

457
00:23:36,400 --> 00:23:38,360
Speaker 1: seven at one eight hundred Gambler