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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network Podcast and it is good.

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Speaker 2: All right.

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Speaker 3: Here we go.

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Speaker 2: Throwing Jo Spettular I'm saying it's a cat.

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Speaker 4: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 4: go to win. That's incredible.

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Speaker 2: Big bank, small banks. I like to make money.

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Speaker 4: All right, this is the ultimate Kabaki.

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Speaker 2: Wall and we are underway.

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Speaker 4: And welcome to the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 5: I'm your host, Chris Raybond, and this is your week

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Speaker 5: two betting preview with odds courtesy of bet MGM, the

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Speaker 5: official odds provider of the Action Network Podcast. I am

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Speaker 5: joined as always by my dude, the Prime Minister of

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Speaker 5: Degenerate Nation, Stucky stuck, going on, how is your week one?

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Speaker 2: Week one was fairly middling. I pushed money around. I

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Speaker 2: mean I had a lot of great calls, beat every

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Speaker 2: line on the clothes, which was good. Had a couple

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Speaker 2: of blowout wins the Cardinals, the Saints, just never in doubt.

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Speaker 2: Unfortunately I had the Raivens under fifty one. I played

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Speaker 2: my one player prop of the year with Michael Gallop

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Speaker 2: over and he got hurt.

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Speaker 4: Bad beat. Yeah, he was gonna go over that.

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Speaker 2: Here's what I always tell people like you, it's football,

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Speaker 2: you're gonna have I was happy with how I capped

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Speaker 2: the card. You're gonna have bad beats go again, so

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Speaker 2: you cannot dwell and them. The good thing about football

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Speaker 2: is you, especially with the NFL, you have like three

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Speaker 2: or four days to just forget about it. You don't

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Speaker 2: have to come back that very next day and fire.

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Speaker 2: Like you know some other sports, you have to move on.

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Speaker 2: You have to accept that they're gonna happen. You have

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Speaker 2: to accept that you're gonna have two and seven days weeks.

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Speaker 2: You have to accept that you're gonna have seven and

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Speaker 2: two weeks. Doesn't mean that you're the greatest, better of

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Speaker 2: all time. Embrace the variants, yell about it a little

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Speaker 2: bit on Twitter event, and then move on. It's part

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Speaker 2: of the game. It's gonna happen. Now we're moving on

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Speaker 2: to weeks two and three, which are two of my

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Speaker 2: favorite in the entire regular season.

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Speaker 5: And I would say to your point about you know,

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Speaker 5: you can kind of forget about it for a few days,

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Speaker 5: but don't forget about those early lines that come out

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Speaker 5: like Sunday, because a lot of times there is value there,

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Speaker 5: So don't always check those lines out.

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Speaker 4: If you have the action Network app.

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Speaker 5: You'll be able to see all those if you follow

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Speaker 5: Stucky at Stucky two or me at Chris Raybond, you'll

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Speaker 5: be able to follow our bets in particular. So, and

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Speaker 5: that actually brings me to before we get into this,

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Speaker 5: if you plan a bet on any sport and still

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Speaker 5: haven't downloaded D three award winning Action Network.

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Speaker 4: App, what are you doing?

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Speaker 5: I mean, it's got betting tools, let's you shot for

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Speaker 5: the best lines, it's got analysis for myself, Stucky, the

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Speaker 5: whole Action Network team, and most importantly, it lets you

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Speaker 5: track every bet that you make. And number two, the

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Speaker 5: Action Network has expanded its podcast portfolio. If you're looking

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Speaker 5: for best in class fantasy coverage, check out the Fantasy

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Speaker 5: Flex podcast with myself and Sean Kerner and Amantha Pervidi.

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Speaker 5: And if you bet on college football, you're gonna want

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Speaker 5: to check out our Big Bets on Campus podcasts with

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Speaker 5: my guys Ducky, Colin Wilson, Brett McMurphy and our whole

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Speaker 5: college football crew. All right, let's get right into Week

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Speaker 5: two because it's a big week for betting, I think,

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Speaker 5: so let's start it right off with Thursday Night Football.

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Speaker 5: It's not the best game.

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Speaker 2: But it's the only game tonight.

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Speaker 1: Let's bet Thursday night football.

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Speaker 5: All right, week two Thursday Night probably gonna be an

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Speaker 5: ugly one. Giants going to Washington to take on the

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Speaker 5: football team new name to be determined to spread Washington by.

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Speaker 4: Three and a half at home. The total forty and

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Speaker 4: a half.

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Speaker 5: And this is exactly why I say, you know, get

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Speaker 5: the Action Network AP check those lines early, follow us.

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Speaker 4: I actually bet this under when it was forty three

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Speaker 4: and a half.

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Speaker 5: Even when Ryan Fitzpatrick, like we knew he had an injury,

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Speaker 5: books still hadn't really adjusted the line as much as

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Speaker 5: I thought they would, and then it started coming down.

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Speaker 5: I guess once we found out he was out for like,

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Speaker 5: you know, the season, but stuck. What are your thoughts

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Speaker 5: overall on Giants at the football team.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a good snag. And forty three is a

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Speaker 2: key number in the NFL these days with the extra

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Speaker 2: point moved back even more important. Look these two teams

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Speaker 2: played last year. The Giants actually swept Washington. They won

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Speaker 2: twenty to nineteen in a game where Washington went for

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Speaker 2: two at the end of the game, much to the

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Speaker 2: chagrin than anyone who had that over and didn't get it.

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Speaker 2: The Giants won twenty to nineteen, and their other meeting

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Speaker 2: in November, the Giants won twenty three to twenty. I

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Speaker 2: think the Giants were up twenty three to three at

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Speaker 2: the half and Washington came all the way back, but

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Speaker 2: the Giants held on for a win. Well, Giants didn't

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Speaker 2: do much offensively. I don't expect them to do much offensively.

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Speaker 2: We talked about this going into last week. You know,

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Speaker 2: even their own players expect to slow start, right so,

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Speaker 2: and we saw that against an excellent defense in Denver,

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Speaker 2: but the offense didn't look very good. This is the

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Speaker 2: exact team that Washington's defense can dominate now. I unfortunately,

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Speaker 2: one of one of the other games I had last

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Speaker 2: week was the Washington that didn't hit was the Washington Chargers,

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Speaker 2: over which I mean the Chroiters have like five hundred

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Speaker 2: yards offense.

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Speaker 5: I'm sure you were thrilled at the play where Justin

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Speaker 5: Herbert threw the ball and they called it a fumble

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Speaker 5: out of the end zone.

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Speaker 2: So you were just thrilled at that that I had

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Speaker 2: the Patriots fumble that wasn't a fumble. Good week for us.

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Speaker 5: That just messed everything up because now it's like, how

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Speaker 5: do we don't know in fantasy, like what's gonna happen

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Speaker 5: with Damian Harris? Like Belichick is he has like two

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Speaker 5: fumblers on the team? Is he gonna activate to like

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Speaker 5: that was? That was just brutal from like everywhere. So yeah,

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Speaker 5: I feel you about.

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Speaker 2: It, But you look, one of the things that I

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Speaker 2: that I've said before the season that actually came to

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Speaker 2: fruition was this Washington defense is not as dominant as

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Speaker 2: people thought. It's a really good defense and arguably the

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Speaker 2: best defensive front in the entire NFL, but they benefited

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Speaker 2: from a ridiculous We went through all the quarterbacks they

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Speaker 2: played and all the banged up offensive lines on that

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Speaker 2: ridiculous schedule last year, and they got picked apart, specifically

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Speaker 2: on third down. But I don't think the Giants are

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Speaker 2: capable of doing that. We talked about the Chargers upgrading

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Speaker 2: their offensive line. The Giants haven't. And this is a

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Speaker 2: game where Washington can really dominate from the defensive line.

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Speaker 2: The Giants offense is still just a mess. There's still

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Speaker 2: not in sync. There's gonna be some teams that improve

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Speaker 2: a lot from Week one to Week two. There's gonna

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Speaker 2: be some teams that are takes a little bit longer

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Speaker 2: due to you know, COVID injuries, lack of continuity and camp. Well,

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Speaker 2: this is a short week, so you only have a

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Speaker 2: couple more days, and I didn't see anything to really

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Speaker 2: get excited about. I only make, you know, with Fitzpatrick out,

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Speaker 2: I only make I make the line a little over

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Speaker 2: three between three and three and a half. I make

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Speaker 2: the total like forty one ish, so a good grab

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Speaker 2: on the forty three. I say every year I look

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Speaker 2: for reasons not to play Thursday night football. The games

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Speaker 2: are usually sloppy and messy, So I'm right on with

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Speaker 2: the market here. From a side and total perspective, it

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Speaker 2: wouldn't shock me if we see another game right in

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Speaker 2: that ballpark of like twenty to seventeen, so I'll be

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Speaker 2: a viewer. It might come in live. Check out our props,

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Speaker 2: the prop coverage that we'll have out, which should be

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Speaker 2: money as always. But as of right now, this is

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Speaker 2: a pregame pass for me.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I think for me, Wait, giants are nothing if

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Speaker 5: I was to bet the aside in this one, but

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Speaker 5: I'm going to probably stick with my total with like

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Speaker 5: three points in line. Value and just sit on that,

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Speaker 5: and you know, maybe I'll get in on some props obviously.

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Speaker 4: But the reason I say.

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Speaker 5: Giants or nothing for me is you kind of mentioned

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Speaker 5: how the Giants did play well against this team last

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Speaker 5: year with the same two coaching staffs.

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Speaker 4: So and that was the first year of both respective

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Speaker 4: coaching staffs.

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Speaker 5: And now we're back right here again, right like, we're

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Speaker 5: back right here with Washington. Same deal, good defense going

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Speaker 5: against week quarterback, but their own quarterback is not good

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Speaker 5: either because now you're starting Tyler Hannike.

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Speaker 2: You know about the third starting quarterback for Washington in

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Speaker 2: the in the three games we're talking about, they had

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Speaker 2: Alex Smith started one of the games, they had Kyle

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Speaker 2: Allen start the other last year, and now at Tyer Haneke.

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Speaker 5: Terrible luck for Washington for fits, because I think he

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Speaker 5: was gonna substantially improve that team just because of how

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Speaker 5: bad or substandard the quarterback situation was for them last year.

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Speaker 5: But you know, it is interesting, you have some you

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Speaker 5: have a lot of trends that support kind of Giants

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Speaker 5: in the under. I think the values bet out of

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Speaker 5: the total at this point. But you know, Week two

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Speaker 5: divisional unders are fifty five and thirty eight fifty nine

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Speaker 5: percent since two thousand and five. According to our Action

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Speaker 5: Labs data, Danny Jones on the road is nine and

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Speaker 5: four against the spread. He's four and ten against the

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Speaker 5: spread at home. It always seems to happen inevitably. Is

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Speaker 5: like the Giants play like shit at home because they're

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Speaker 5: just not that great. They have a shitty offensive line,

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Speaker 5: the quarterbacks below average, and then they go on the

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Speaker 5: road and they get a little, you know, the other

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Speaker 5: team gets a little overrated, and the Giants end up

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Speaker 5: pointing it out. So we wouldn't be surprised if the

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Speaker 5: Giants won this game, like in an ugly one Giants

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Speaker 5: or nothing if I'm betting it.

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Speaker 4: Let's go to the Sunday six pack for week two.

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Speaker 1: Thursday for Action, Let's crack open the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 5: All right, stuck week one, we both went a two

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Speaker 5: out of three on our six pack. I hit my

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Speaker 5: total barely years as you talked about one unders, so

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Speaker 5: I'm up for three.

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Speaker 4: Man. There's a lot going on right as we recorded this, so.

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Speaker 5: Ends up moving and so I'm going to go with

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Speaker 5: my first pick with Minnesota plus three and a half

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Speaker 5: at Arizona for the first pick of the Sunday six

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Speaker 5: pack in Week two, and that's because number one, I

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Speaker 5: think this is a week two overreaction. Now, this line

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Speaker 5: was four and a half. It's still three and a half.

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Speaker 5: I like it, you know, down to here. I wiped

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Speaker 5: it a lot more at four and a half, obviously,

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Speaker 5: but as long as it's above three, I think you're

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Speaker 5: still getting some value here.

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Speaker 4: Minnesota, Listen, they came out of a little.

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Speaker 5: Bit flat in that Sincy game, you know, or I

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Speaker 5: shouldn't say came out flat. They kind of didn't play

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Speaker 5: well in the second half and into overtime more so.

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Speaker 5: But Arizona got the luxury of and you called it

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Speaker 5: stuck like facing his Titans team that was just a

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Speaker 5: little discombobulated heading into Week one. I mean, guys are

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Speaker 5: on the COVID list, Guys weren't practicing. Taylor Lwan came

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Speaker 5: out and straight up said he was asked and like

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Speaker 5: he was like, thank you, Chamler Jones for exposing me.

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Speaker 5: We'll talk about that game in a bit, but this

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Speaker 5: is the time to back the teams that kind of

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Speaker 5: disappointed well for the most part. You know, there's obviously

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Speaker 5: those exceptions, but in fade the teams that kind of

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Speaker 5: surprise and that the market is overreacting to.

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Speaker 4: If you look at Week two.

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Speaker 5: Underdogs coming off a loss, and when it's a plus,

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Speaker 5: the spread is plus six or less.

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Speaker 4: So when it's still like.

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Speaker 5: A reasonable, you know, reasonably close game, not some straight

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Speaker 5: up blowout situation like maybe the Bucks could be. So

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Speaker 5: Week two dogs off the loss plus six or less

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Speaker 5: fifty seven and thirty three, sixty three percent against the

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Speaker 5: spread since two thousand and five, according to our Action

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Speaker 5: Labs data. I also love backing Mike Zimmer in these

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Speaker 5: spots because this Vikings team, it's always kind of mediocre,

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Speaker 5: little above average maybe, but Mike Zimmer off a loss

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Speaker 5: thirty and fifteen against the spread. So that's two out

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Speaker 5: of every three since he took over as the head

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Speaker 5: coach of Minnesota. And I get to bet against Cliff

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Speaker 5: Kingsbury and on Mike Zimmer.

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Speaker 1: Cliff Kingsbury in two teams, and I think a reasonably

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Speaker 1: even we matched, you know, I think, you know, give

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Speaker 1: him what we saw from Arizona with JJ Watt and

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Speaker 1: Shandler Jones.

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Speaker 5: I'll give him a little bit of an edge because

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Speaker 5: I don't think we saw as much for at Viken

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Speaker 5: d as we wanted to see, you know, in week one.

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Speaker 5: I think it'll come together as the season progresses. Dalvin Cook,

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Speaker 5: I felt bad for him with that fumble because I

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Speaker 5: know he was playing with a heavy heart. You know,

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Speaker 5: his pops died suddenly at the end of last year.

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Speaker 5: He missed Week seventeen. He was just eighty two yards

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Speaker 5: shy of two thousand. He really wanted to win. I

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Speaker 5: really wanted to start off on the right foot. And

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Speaker 5: you know, Fumble had the key fumble waiting in that overtime.

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Speaker 4: So it's a tough break for him. But I think

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Speaker 4: Minnesota's capable winning this game.

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Speaker 5: So I'm taking them plus three and a half for

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Speaker 5: my first pick of the Sunday six pack in Week two.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I completely agree. If you didn't take them, I

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Speaker 2: would have. And you know, backed Cliff last week, I was.

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Speaker 4: A great call.

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Speaker 2: I faded him this week with plus four and a half.

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Speaker 2: Look to kind of set the the stage four week two.

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Speaker 2: I end up. Look early in the seasons when you

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Speaker 2: want to make your largest adjustments as a handicapper because

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Speaker 2: you're learning the most, but you don't want to overreact

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Speaker 2: and more often than not, the market does overreact to

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Speaker 2: things that we see in Week one. Just take a

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Speaker 2: look at last year. You can do this every year.

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Speaker 2: You know, the Colts lost to the Jacks, right the

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Speaker 2: Colts made the playoffs. The Jags still haven't won a

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Speaker 2: game since then. You know, the Bucks lost to the Saints.

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Speaker 2: Bucks went on to win the Super Bowl. The Saints

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Speaker 2: lost the next week is four point favorites by double

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Speaker 2: digits in Vegas. The Browns lost by fifty in Baltimore.

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Speaker 2: The Browns ended up being okay, like it's just one week,

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Speaker 2: one day. At a point, you don't want to overreact along

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Speaker 2: those lines. You know, if you look at home underdogs

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Speaker 2: in week two off a loss since two thousand and

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Speaker 2: three have gone forty nine thirty eight and one against

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Speaker 2: the spread, it's about fifty six and a half percent

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Speaker 2: and not too shatcause against the close in a very

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Speaker 2: efficient market. And you know, if you look at some

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Speaker 2: of these blowouts since two thousand and three eighteen that

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Speaker 2: cover by more than twenty seven points forty three percent

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Speaker 2: in the regular season the following week, that's at anytime

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Speaker 2: Week two, two, fourteen and one against the spread, we

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Speaker 2: actually have that so it only happened seventeen times with

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Speaker 2: two fourteen one. We actually have three instances of it

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Speaker 2: this week. The Saints, you know, they they covered by

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Speaker 2: more than four touchdowns, the Cardinals and the Eagles against

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Speaker 2: the forty nine ers. I think that really fit applies there.

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Speaker 2: The Saints and Cardinals. Everyone said wow. And if you

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Speaker 2: look at this look aheadline with the Vikings, I mean

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Speaker 2: this was under a field goal and now you're getting

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Speaker 2: four and a half three and a half. So I

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Speaker 2: agree with you here. The Vikings do have some some

296
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Speaker 2: things to worry about on the offensive line, where Shad

297
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Speaker 2: Hill was a mess. They really need Barrymore to come

298
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Speaker 2: back and hope that he's so good. Their first round

299
00:14:45,560 --> 00:14:48,880
Speaker 2: draft pick Bradberry got pushed back into The Bengals really

300
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Speaker 2: took advantage of the interior offensive line of the Vikings.

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Speaker 2: The defense struggled, specifically in the secondary, but I'm not

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Speaker 2: as worried about Zimmer's defense. I think Minnesota is a

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Speaker 2: team that on the defensive side of the ball, and

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Speaker 2: in regardless to penalties, they had thirteen flags in the

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Speaker 2: first half. Nine accepted. That's insane. Zimmers team's usually very disciplined,

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Speaker 2: as usually the Kingsbury teams that aren't. So I'm not

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Speaker 2: too worried about that. The defense had nine new starters

308
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Speaker 2: from last year. Nine, so you know, expecting some growing

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Speaker 2: pains I think is not too alarming in the first

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Speaker 2: game on the road. And hey, Patrick Peterson, I always

311
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Speaker 2: say a corner that's been of the team for a

312
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Speaker 2: while can provide some edge knowing that other team's you know,

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Speaker 2: tendencies and how the wide receivers operate in some of

314
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Speaker 2: the play calling. So Patrick Peterson's kind of intel might

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Speaker 2: help here. So I completely agree with you. I make

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Speaker 2: this under a field goal. It's a great by low

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Speaker 2: Sell high spot on the Cardinals, who just looked flawless,

318
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Speaker 2: I mean defensively and offensively, which leads me into my

319
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Speaker 2: first pick of the Sunday six pack and the second overall.

320
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Speaker 2: I'm going with the Carolina Panthers and Sam Darnold plus

321
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Speaker 2: three and a half. I took plus four at BETMGM.

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Speaker 2: It's plus three and a half right now. Still like

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Speaker 2: it some there, try and see if you can find

324
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Speaker 2: a four. I don't know if it's going to get

325
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Speaker 2: back there across the board because the Saints' coaching staff

326
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Speaker 2: they have six offensive assistants who were tested positive for COVID,

327
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Speaker 2: so that's gonna hurt their preparation. But again I already

328
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Speaker 2: mentioned in the spot with the Saints they covered by

329
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Speaker 2: more than four touchdowns. Teams in that spot specifically in

330
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Speaker 2: Week two have been awful the next week. You know,

331
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Speaker 2: the Panthers didn't look great against the Jets, but I

332
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Speaker 2: saw enough to feel confident in backing them here against

333
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Speaker 2: the Saints team that still has issues. They It's one

334
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Speaker 2: week again. I was on the Saints. I love the

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Speaker 2: Saints last week. But what do we always talk about

336
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Speaker 2: on here. If you're going to fade Jamis, do you

337
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Speaker 2: want to do so when he's a favor. He's eighteen

338
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Speaker 2: ten and one against the spread as an underdog more

339
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Speaker 2: than a field goal. He's seven to fourteen and one

340
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Speaker 2: against the spread as a favorite. I can see him

341
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Speaker 2: making numerous mistakes here against Carolina's own looks and New

342
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Speaker 2: Orleans just they don't have the receivers. That's gonna hurt,

343
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Speaker 2: really hurt this Carolina secondary, which is suspect. And you

344
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Speaker 2: have to look at the other side of the I mean,

345
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Speaker 2: you go look at the injury report for New Orleans

346
00:17:27,480 --> 00:17:31,200
Speaker 2: it's not pretty. Now you have Marshawn Lattimore out, which

347
00:17:31,240 --> 00:17:33,800
Speaker 2: is just huge because this is a brand new cornerback group.

348
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Speaker 2: So I'm going to buy the Panthers here in a

349
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Speaker 2: spot where I'm primarily selling the Saints, who I think

350
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Speaker 2: just it was just their day. I think they benefited

351
00:17:43,880 --> 00:17:46,919
Speaker 2: from some humidity as well, and the track and just

352
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Speaker 2: everything went their way. It happens, but I think this

353
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Speaker 2: line should be closer to two. The look aheadline was

354
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Speaker 2: under a field goal, So I'm taking the Panthers plug

355
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Speaker 2: US three and a half on Sunday. I think they

356
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Speaker 2: win out right, but don't worry, We'll have plenty of

357
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Speaker 2: opportunities to fade good old Sammy Darnell down the stretch.

358
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Speaker 5: And on top of that, the Saints have some COVID

359
00:18:16,800 --> 00:18:19,080
Speaker 5: risk going on here because I think it's like six

360
00:18:19,160 --> 00:18:22,280
Speaker 5: members of their coaching staff plus the nutritionist plus Michael

361
00:18:22,280 --> 00:18:24,480
Speaker 5: Thomas all.

362
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Speaker 4: Came down with COVID.

363
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Speaker 5: Now, I think Sean Payton and like the Key, like

364
00:18:28,480 --> 00:18:32,240
Speaker 5: the Key, guys escaped it. But it's still a risk that,

365
00:18:32,400 --> 00:18:35,040
Speaker 5: you know, something, between now and Sunday, something could go wrong.

366
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Speaker 4: So I actually bet the under on this game as well.

367
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Speaker 5: Just because I think, you know, Saint's dealing with offensive issues.

368
00:18:42,600 --> 00:18:45,920
Speaker 5: Carolina's defense I think is better than people think this year.

369
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Speaker 5: I think the front seven of Carolinas is really good.

370
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Speaker 5: And yeah, I mean the package just got caught up

371
00:18:52,240 --> 00:18:54,680
Speaker 5: in it. They just laid an egg, like as much

372
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Speaker 5: as there's nothing else really to say. I mean, they

373
00:18:57,080 --> 00:19:00,800
Speaker 5: laid like a bigger than Titan sized egg in that

374
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Speaker 5: game because the Titans laiden Megan and the Packers laid

375
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Speaker 5: an egg.

376
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Speaker 4: So yeah, I like that one as well.

377
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Speaker 2: Yeah, and think about think about that as overreactions like

378
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Speaker 2: some of these. You know what happens in Week one,

379
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Speaker 2: Like Aaron Rodgers doesn't all a sudden stink. The Texans

380
00:19:15,760 --> 00:19:19,320
Speaker 2: offense isn't all of a sudden good. Don't ever react, Hey,

381
00:19:19,440 --> 00:19:21,239
Speaker 2: shout out to the Texans. Don't shout out to us

382
00:19:21,280 --> 00:19:24,720
Speaker 2: because they helped us hit our Week one moneyline underdog

383
00:19:24,840 --> 00:19:26,920
Speaker 2: parlay Eagles Texans.

384
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Speaker 4: Yeah, right off the bat.

385
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Speaker 2: All right.

386
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Speaker 5: For my second pick of the week two Sunday six

387
00:19:32,280 --> 00:19:36,400
Speaker 5: pack and the third overall pick, I am going with

388
00:19:36,440 --> 00:19:40,639
Speaker 5: the Tennessee Titans plus five and a half at the

389
00:19:40,680 --> 00:19:44,600
Speaker 5: Seattle Seahawks. We both kind of already gotten into this.

390
00:19:45,480 --> 00:19:48,440
Speaker 5: The Titans were not prepared in Week one, they were

391
00:19:48,880 --> 00:19:52,800
Speaker 5: not enough practice time, things going wrong just you know,

392
00:19:52,880 --> 00:19:55,800
Speaker 5: heading into the season. It wasn't an ideal spot. They

393
00:19:55,800 --> 00:19:58,879
Speaker 5: got blown out. So I'm buying the dip here, buying

394
00:19:58,880 --> 00:20:02,359
Speaker 5: the overreaction. And on the other side, we have the

395
00:20:02,400 --> 00:20:04,960
Speaker 5: fact that the Seahawks played essentially a carbon copy of

396
00:20:05,000 --> 00:20:08,199
Speaker 5: the Titans. The Seahawks played not in the team, but

397
00:20:08,400 --> 00:20:10,640
Speaker 5: in the fact that the Colts. If there was one

398
00:20:10,680 --> 00:20:12,359
Speaker 5: team that I think I think I said this on

399
00:20:12,400 --> 00:20:15,080
Speaker 5: the podcast, like, if there's one team that you expect

400
00:20:15,119 --> 00:20:18,320
Speaker 5: not to come out prepared in Week one, it was

401
00:20:18,359 --> 00:20:21,720
Speaker 5: probably the Colts because they just dealt with so much

402
00:20:21,840 --> 00:20:27,280
Speaker 5: COVID situations, parks and wentz barely practicing for a variety

403
00:20:27,320 --> 00:20:29,560
Speaker 5: of reasons, whether it was COVID, whether it was the foot.

404
00:20:30,480 --> 00:20:33,479
Speaker 4: So, you know, the Seahawks take advantage of that.

405
00:20:33,560 --> 00:20:35,920
Speaker 5: They get a couple of big plays, they play well,

406
00:20:36,920 --> 00:20:40,040
Speaker 5: but you know, they win twenty eight sixteen. You know,

407
00:20:40,160 --> 00:20:42,439
Speaker 5: I'm not really looking at that. It's like, oh, the

408
00:20:42,440 --> 00:20:45,439
Speaker 5: Seahawks got a thousand times better. I liked what I

409
00:20:45,440 --> 00:20:47,359
Speaker 5: saw on the Seahawks, you know, no doubt about it.

410
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Speaker 4: But I think this Titans team, they're still healthy enough.

411
00:20:51,760 --> 00:20:55,639
Speaker 5: You know, Tarawuan didn't have a great first game, got

412
00:20:55,880 --> 00:20:58,640
Speaker 5: just manhandled by Chamlra Jones, who I don't know who

413
00:20:58,680 --> 00:21:01,560
Speaker 5: on the Seahawks is getting five acts on tayl On

414
00:21:01,640 --> 00:21:06,000
Speaker 5: Taylor Luan. So like this, like the matchup here, I

415
00:21:06,000 --> 00:21:08,560
Speaker 5: think it kind of favors the Titans to get in

416
00:21:08,640 --> 00:21:11,040
Speaker 5: one of these games where when you have Derrick Henry,

417
00:21:11,080 --> 00:21:14,840
Speaker 5: you have aj Brown, you have Julio and offense another

418
00:21:14,880 --> 00:21:17,399
Speaker 5: week of practice. I think this is a little more

419
00:21:17,440 --> 00:21:19,879
Speaker 5: of a toss up game than people think the Titans

420
00:21:19,880 --> 00:21:21,879
Speaker 5: are going to be able to score on Seattle. The

421
00:21:21,920 --> 00:21:23,639
Speaker 5: Titans are going to you know, the Seattle's not going

422
00:21:23,680 --> 00:21:25,480
Speaker 5: to just be able to to I think, you know,

423
00:21:25,560 --> 00:21:27,800
Speaker 5: kind of coast the way they did against Indianapolis after

424
00:21:27,840 --> 00:21:30,199
Speaker 5: getting up in that one. I think the Titans this

425
00:21:30,240 --> 00:21:32,040
Speaker 5: week will be a lot more prepared.

426
00:21:32,080 --> 00:21:33,960
Speaker 4: They'll be trying to erase that early loss.

427
00:21:33,960 --> 00:21:37,159
Speaker 5: And again you have these Week two dogs, you know,

428
00:21:37,280 --> 00:21:40,719
Speaker 5: coming off that that loss in Week one, when when

429
00:21:40,760 --> 00:21:42,800
Speaker 5: the numbers six or less and they're they're hitting sixty

430
00:21:42,840 --> 00:21:45,840
Speaker 5: three percent of the time over the last fifteen years.

431
00:21:45,920 --> 00:21:49,520
Speaker 5: So I like Tennessee and I think even you know,

432
00:21:50,480 --> 00:21:53,720
Speaker 5: if you're really kind of looking to jenet out and

433
00:21:53,760 --> 00:21:56,560
Speaker 5: get even more action on this game, I wouldn't mind

434
00:21:56,560 --> 00:22:00,200
Speaker 5: Tennessee in the first half either. First half underdogs off

435
00:22:00,200 --> 00:22:03,959
Speaker 5: a blowout are fifty nine percent against the spread, so

436
00:22:04,720 --> 00:22:07,159
Speaker 5: not quite as good as as the full game number.

437
00:22:07,400 --> 00:22:10,040
Speaker 5: But you look at teams that lost by more than

438
00:22:10,080 --> 00:22:12,920
Speaker 5: twenty and that next week in the first half, they

439
00:22:12,960 --> 00:22:15,439
Speaker 5: are hitting at a fifty nine percent rate against the spread.

440
00:22:15,480 --> 00:22:18,479
Speaker 5: So whit Tennessee for the game. Don't think Seattle can

441
00:22:18,560 --> 00:22:21,320
Speaker 5: kill him with the pass rush away Arizona did. Think

442
00:22:21,320 --> 00:22:25,320
Speaker 5: Tennessee's more prepared. Think Tennessee's hungry coming off the loss.

443
00:22:25,560 --> 00:22:27,880
Speaker 5: And this is still a Seattle team that wins most

444
00:22:27,880 --> 00:22:29,560
Speaker 5: of their games by like a field goal even if

445
00:22:29,600 --> 00:22:32,160
Speaker 5: they do win. So you're getting five and a half here,

446
00:22:32,720 --> 00:22:35,320
Speaker 5: and I think, you know, after what Tennessee did, the

447
00:22:35,359 --> 00:22:37,920
Speaker 5: market's probably down on them, So maybe we even get

448
00:22:37,920 --> 00:22:41,199
Speaker 5: a six at some point, But for the purposes of

449
00:22:41,240 --> 00:22:43,840
Speaker 5: the show, I'm taking it at five and a half.

450
00:22:43,880 --> 00:22:46,800
Speaker 5: Tennessee an underdog at Seattle week two.

451
00:22:47,359 --> 00:22:50,240
Speaker 2: I completely agree with the principle of the play by

452
00:22:50,400 --> 00:22:53,879
Speaker 2: low Sell high spot and look, I'm shocked I'm saying this.

453
00:22:53,960 --> 00:22:56,639
Speaker 2: I thought I was going to be on Tennessee, especially

454
00:22:56,720 --> 00:22:59,439
Speaker 2: after what happened last week. And I love fading. I

455
00:22:59,440 --> 00:23:01,960
Speaker 2: love fading. Seattle is more than you know, four or

456
00:23:02,040 --> 00:23:06,240
Speaker 2: five point on a favorite. But I just don't know.

457
00:23:06,720 --> 00:23:08,920
Speaker 2: I need to see. I don't blindly to that play.

458
00:23:08,920 --> 00:23:11,080
Speaker 2: All the home doogs are the bilose. There's some there's

459
00:23:11,080 --> 00:23:14,760
Speaker 2: some art matchups. It's not just you know, here's the

460
00:23:14,760 --> 00:23:17,240
Speaker 2: home dog, here's the situation play. And I don't know

461
00:23:17,320 --> 00:23:19,919
Speaker 2: how long it's gonna take for Tennessee to get up

462
00:23:19,920 --> 00:23:22,240
Speaker 2: to speed. It could just this week of practice, boom,

463
00:23:22,280 --> 00:23:24,720
Speaker 2: they get their timing down. The offensive line has been back,

464
00:23:24,800 --> 00:23:27,520
Speaker 2: they got a full they got a full game in

465
00:23:28,000 --> 00:23:30,400
Speaker 2: Julio is going to be more instinct with the office.

466
00:23:30,440 --> 00:23:32,280
Speaker 2: Could be this week. But I'm going to play it

467
00:23:32,680 --> 00:23:35,320
Speaker 2: cautiously and sit on the silence here. I'm not playing Seattle,

468
00:23:35,440 --> 00:23:37,440
Speaker 2: who I was impressed with on offense, I'm just Shane

469
00:23:37,440 --> 00:23:41,320
Speaker 2: Waldron Russell Wilson looked great. But I do do think

470
00:23:41,359 --> 00:23:44,000
Speaker 2: they benefited from playing a Colts team that was dealing

471
00:23:44,160 --> 00:23:48,320
Speaker 2: with a lot prior to the season, and the Colts

472
00:23:48,359 --> 00:23:51,199
Speaker 2: also went oh for three on fourth downs. So you know,

473
00:23:51,280 --> 00:23:53,000
Speaker 2: that game could have been a lot closer than the

474
00:23:53,000 --> 00:23:57,440
Speaker 2: final score. So I can't disagree with your logic for

475
00:23:57,560 --> 00:24:01,520
Speaker 2: the reason for the play. And I wouldn't be surprised

476
00:24:01,520 --> 00:24:04,120
Speaker 2: as if this, you know, if that Tennessee offense gets

477
00:24:04,160 --> 00:24:07,840
Speaker 2: back up to where we expect it to be, I

478
00:24:07,840 --> 00:24:09,440
Speaker 2: wouldn't be surprised if this is the type of game.

479
00:24:09,520 --> 00:24:11,440
Speaker 2: It's just the last team with the ball wins.

480
00:24:12,000 --> 00:24:14,919
Speaker 5: Yeah, there's a I mean, and you know this is

481
00:24:14,960 --> 00:24:17,400
Speaker 5: you're also playing the card here, right, like I mean,

482
00:24:17,480 --> 00:24:19,720
Speaker 5: we have to for the show. So you know, looking

483
00:24:19,760 --> 00:24:22,480
Speaker 5: at the card, there's a couple of these, you know,

484
00:24:22,560 --> 00:24:24,879
Speaker 5: big spreads that I just don't want to touch.

485
00:24:24,760 --> 00:24:26,000
Speaker 4: Either way, like Tampa Bay.

486
00:24:26,280 --> 00:24:29,200
Speaker 5: So you know, five and a half, you know, when

487
00:24:29,200 --> 00:24:31,720
Speaker 5: you start looking at it, I mean, it's that's just

488
00:24:31,760 --> 00:24:33,720
Speaker 5: a bigger that's just a big number for a team

489
00:24:33,760 --> 00:24:35,399
Speaker 5: that I think it easily win this game, you know,

490
00:24:35,400 --> 00:24:38,120
Speaker 5: like Seattle is not. Oh like they're the same Seattle

491
00:24:38,200 --> 00:24:40,679
Speaker 5: that has had one of the best quarterbacks in the

492
00:24:40,720 --> 00:24:43,640
Speaker 5: league for almost a decade now, but they'll still kind

493
00:24:43,640 --> 00:24:46,359
Speaker 5: of play these these close games. So yeah, it's it's

494
00:24:46,440 --> 00:24:48,760
Speaker 5: kind of a card play, but I do like it

495
00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:52,400
Speaker 5: I am betting this for real, So yeah, Tennessee five

496
00:24:52,440 --> 00:24:52,800
Speaker 5: and a half.

497
00:24:53,359 --> 00:24:56,159
Speaker 2: Yeah, and if one note like five isn't really a

498
00:24:56,240 --> 00:24:58,080
Speaker 2: key number, and for the condess wouldn't matter if you

499
00:24:58,080 --> 00:24:59,719
Speaker 2: have six or five and a half. Yeah, But as

500
00:24:59,760 --> 00:25:02,440
Speaker 2: you may, I would if you're sitting on the sidelines

501
00:25:02,440 --> 00:25:06,000
Speaker 2: hesitant here, maybe some you know, late sharp money or

502
00:25:06,160 --> 00:25:09,840
Speaker 2: late public money pushes this up. You're better off trying

503
00:25:09,880 --> 00:25:11,800
Speaker 2: to wait for a six or who knows a six

504
00:25:11,920 --> 00:25:14,840
Speaker 2: and a half than you know, having the opportunity to

505
00:25:15,240 --> 00:25:17,080
Speaker 2: you have to take five instead of five and a half.

506
00:25:17,440 --> 00:25:20,480
Speaker 2: But for my second pick of the Sunday six pack

507
00:25:20,840 --> 00:25:24,119
Speaker 2: and the fourth overall, I'm going with the team we

508
00:25:24,240 --> 00:25:29,639
Speaker 2: just talked about, the Indianapolis Colts plus four at home

509
00:25:30,040 --> 00:25:32,600
Speaker 2: against the Los Angeles Rams. First of all, I do

510
00:25:32,680 --> 00:25:36,159
Speaker 2: want to say that the Rams on offense really impressed me.

511
00:25:36,240 --> 00:25:40,240
Speaker 2: I mean, look, Stafford first game running the show in

512
00:25:40,359 --> 00:25:44,080
Speaker 2: this new offense, he looked spectacular. But let's not get

513
00:25:44,119 --> 00:25:46,760
Speaker 2: too carried away with, you know, crowning the Rams super

514
00:25:46,760 --> 00:25:49,800
Speaker 2: Bowl champions after you know, a week one primetime home

515
00:25:49,880 --> 00:25:53,200
Speaker 2: victory over Andy Dalton and the Bears. We're both very

516
00:25:53,240 --> 00:25:56,680
Speaker 2: low on this year a team that has an atrocious

517
00:25:56,720 --> 00:26:02,159
Speaker 2: offensive line and I think overrated defense. So as a result,

518
00:26:02,240 --> 00:26:05,080
Speaker 2: I think that the Rams love has gotten there's too

519
00:26:05,160 --> 00:26:07,639
Speaker 2: much Rams love in the market. After that win, people

520
00:26:07,640 --> 00:26:10,440
Speaker 2: are just assuming the cults are are awful. Now, I

521
00:26:10,480 --> 00:26:15,200
Speaker 2: mean this line, pre this line in the preseason look

522
00:26:15,240 --> 00:26:18,920
Speaker 2: ahead line was Colts minus one and a half. Now

523
00:26:18,960 --> 00:26:24,720
Speaker 2: there's obviously injury concerns. Covid where it was wentz last

524
00:26:24,720 --> 00:26:27,240
Speaker 2: week the look head line was Colts mine. I mean

525
00:26:27,320 --> 00:26:30,879
Speaker 2: Rams minus two minus two outs up to four. You've crossed,

526
00:26:31,440 --> 00:26:34,680
Speaker 2: you know, a couple key numbers, so I had to

527
00:26:34,720 --> 00:26:38,560
Speaker 2: grab the four here the Colts last week, Look, they

528
00:26:38,640 --> 00:26:41,520
Speaker 2: lost another opening, uh season opening.

529
00:26:42,119 --> 00:26:42,760
Speaker 4: I mean, it's.

530
00:26:44,600 --> 00:26:46,840
Speaker 2: Third longest streak in NFL history. It's great.

531
00:26:46,920 --> 00:26:49,400
Speaker 5: Reich is zero to four now, and he's a he's

532
00:26:49,400 --> 00:26:50,280
Speaker 5: a good coach.

533
00:26:50,240 --> 00:26:50,960
Speaker 4: Like they was.

534
00:26:51,119 --> 00:26:53,000
Speaker 5: They lost the teams that want to combined nine and

535
00:26:53,080 --> 00:26:55,080
Speaker 5: thirty six in his first three years that went on

536
00:26:55,160 --> 00:26:56,840
Speaker 5: to go nine and three, and then they lost to Seattle,

537
00:26:56,840 --> 00:26:58,520
Speaker 5: who's not going to go now you know they're not

538
00:26:58,520 --> 00:27:00,959
Speaker 5: gonna be bad. But like, it's nuts how he couldn't

539
00:27:01,000 --> 00:27:02,760
Speaker 5: like turn that around because he's a good coach.

540
00:27:03,000 --> 00:27:08,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, and we mentioned. You know, the Jags loss lays bad.

541
00:27:09,400 --> 00:27:13,920
Speaker 2: They're owing sixteen cents. And but if you want to

542
00:27:14,000 --> 00:27:17,280
Speaker 2: take an optimistice, if you're a coltsman out there, they've

543
00:27:17,400 --> 00:27:19,879
Speaker 2: under right. They've won in Week two each of the

544
00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:22,840
Speaker 2: past three years, so they bounced back last year. I

545
00:27:22,920 --> 00:27:25,160
Speaker 2: was all over them against the Vikings after they lost

546
00:27:25,160 --> 00:27:29,640
Speaker 2: to the Jags at home. I'm back on them here. Look,

547
00:27:30,520 --> 00:27:33,800
Speaker 2: I'm giving you know, I'm gonna be hesitant and cautious

548
00:27:33,840 --> 00:27:38,399
Speaker 2: with some teams like Tennessee. I'm giving the benefit of

549
00:27:38,400 --> 00:27:43,080
Speaker 2: the doubt to the Minnesota defense and to the Colts

550
00:27:43,160 --> 00:27:46,959
Speaker 2: as a whole. Look, the defense, the secondary willis in particular,

551
00:27:47,040 --> 00:27:50,919
Speaker 2: safety struggled. It's the first game. It's Russell Wilson, and

552
00:27:50,960 --> 00:27:54,880
Speaker 2: all was understandable. The offensive line was a little bit

553
00:27:54,960 --> 00:28:00,800
Speaker 2: more concerning. You know, both tackles played awful. But I

554
00:28:00,840 --> 00:28:04,560
Speaker 2: saw enough from Wentz that I don't think that he's

555
00:28:04,600 --> 00:28:07,440
Speaker 2: going to be, you know, the worst quarterback in the NFL. Again.

556
00:28:07,520 --> 00:28:09,960
Speaker 2: He looks much more comfortable in that system. In his

557
00:28:10,040 --> 00:28:12,680
Speaker 2: first game, he was fairly efficient. It wasn't just throwing

558
00:28:12,680 --> 00:28:13,920
Speaker 2: the ball up in the air and turning it over.

559
00:28:13,960 --> 00:28:15,720
Speaker 2: That's what he was last year, so I know it's

560
00:28:15,760 --> 00:28:19,880
Speaker 2: not a big hurdle to clear, but I actually thought

561
00:28:19,920 --> 00:28:22,480
Speaker 2: he looked pretty good. I expect the offensive line to

562
00:28:22,520 --> 00:28:26,280
Speaker 2: be much better this week. It would help if Eric Fisher,

563
00:28:26,320 --> 00:28:29,040
Speaker 2: who has a chance to play, can come back and

564
00:28:29,040 --> 00:28:32,200
Speaker 2: play left tackle for Davenport, who gave up two huge sacks.

565
00:28:32,480 --> 00:28:34,640
Speaker 2: I mentioned the Cults are over three on fourth down,

566
00:28:34,760 --> 00:28:37,040
Speaker 2: so they could have been. They could have made that

567
00:28:37,080 --> 00:28:40,240
Speaker 2: game a lot more competitive. The defense also settled down

568
00:28:40,360 --> 00:28:42,240
Speaker 2: in the second half. Some of that has to do

569
00:28:42,280 --> 00:28:44,440
Speaker 2: with Seattle play calling, but I think that they did

570
00:28:44,440 --> 00:28:46,080
Speaker 2: look a little better than the second half, and I

571
00:28:46,120 --> 00:28:50,680
Speaker 2: ultimately trust this staff, you know, to get it together

572
00:28:50,760 --> 00:28:53,320
Speaker 2: after a week of practice. He talked about it. They

573
00:28:53,400 --> 00:28:58,320
Speaker 2: had offensive line injuries. Covid Wentz is barely practicing, So

574
00:28:58,360 --> 00:29:01,000
Speaker 2: I think this week of practice, after getting a game,

575
00:29:01,040 --> 00:29:03,240
Speaker 2: and they'll be much better here. I think that they

576
00:29:03,280 --> 00:29:06,720
Speaker 2: can at their offensive line and their rushing attack will

577
00:29:06,720 --> 00:29:10,000
Speaker 2: actually get going against the Rams. This Rams defense, you

578
00:29:10,280 --> 00:29:13,560
Speaker 2: has some holes, and having Jalen Ramsey this week, it's

579
00:29:13,600 --> 00:29:15,719
Speaker 2: not like the Colts have a star receiver that you

580
00:29:15,920 --> 00:29:18,080
Speaker 2: take out and you know, not like the Bears, and

581
00:29:18,160 --> 00:29:20,400
Speaker 2: it matters for the Bears. They have a really good receiver.

582
00:29:20,440 --> 00:29:22,360
Speaker 2: You want to take out the Colts not really, So

583
00:29:22,480 --> 00:29:25,320
Speaker 2: whoever he's guarding, I'm sure they're going to be locked down.

584
00:29:25,320 --> 00:29:27,920
Speaker 2: I'm not part of the that play, but it's not

585
00:29:27,960 --> 00:29:31,320
Speaker 2: a huge loss for the Colts. So I think that

586
00:29:31,360 --> 00:29:35,240
Speaker 2: the Rams defense has some vulnerabilities that Chicago just wasn't

587
00:29:35,320 --> 00:29:38,680
Speaker 2: able to exploit Andy Dalton through the ball down the

588
00:29:38,680 --> 00:29:42,840
Speaker 2: field past fifteen yards one time the entire game it

589
00:29:42,880 --> 00:29:46,120
Speaker 2: was picked it was at one time. So I still

590
00:29:46,120 --> 00:29:48,840
Speaker 2: have some questions about this Rams defense outside of obviously

591
00:29:49,640 --> 00:29:53,120
Speaker 2: Donald and Ramsey, but this, ultimately, this is just I'm

592
00:29:53,160 --> 00:29:55,840
Speaker 2: trusting the Colts staff. I'm trusting that they'll be better,

593
00:29:55,920 --> 00:29:59,720
Speaker 2: especially on the offensive line this week. And I'm buying

594
00:29:59,800 --> 00:30:02,840
Speaker 2: love on the home pup here catching four in the

595
00:30:02,880 --> 00:30:04,760
Speaker 2: game that I make under a field goal in a

596
00:30:04,800 --> 00:30:05,360
Speaker 2: good spot.

597
00:30:06,240 --> 00:30:09,800
Speaker 5: I think I compare like your Titans are my Colts,

598
00:30:10,000 --> 00:30:12,600
Speaker 5: like the Colts are a team at This matchup is

599
00:30:12,600 --> 00:30:15,120
Speaker 5: more of a wait and see for me, because I

600
00:30:15,160 --> 00:30:18,320
Speaker 5: have question marks about the Rams defense in terms of

601
00:30:18,640 --> 00:30:22,320
Speaker 5: not so much the talent level, and I love Rhee Morris,

602
00:30:22,360 --> 00:30:27,080
Speaker 5: but I'm interested to see how they play this because

603
00:30:27,320 --> 00:30:30,840
Speaker 5: it was clear that against Chicago, even though Andy Dalton.

604
00:30:31,320 --> 00:30:33,640
Speaker 5: If you say who's the better player, Dave then Montgomery

605
00:30:33,680 --> 00:30:37,040
Speaker 5: at running back or Andy Dalton at quarterback, even though

606
00:30:37,040 --> 00:30:40,160
Speaker 5: you would say Montgomery, I think at this stage the

607
00:30:40,240 --> 00:30:41,000
Speaker 5: Rams still just.

608
00:30:41,000 --> 00:30:42,400
Speaker 4: Said please run on us.

609
00:30:42,480 --> 00:30:45,600
Speaker 5: They played two safety back, two safeties back the majority

610
00:30:45,640 --> 00:30:48,360
Speaker 5: of the time, or it was the disguise, and David

611
00:30:48,440 --> 00:30:51,320
Speaker 5: Ramsey wasn't even on Allen Robinson for most of that game.

612
00:30:51,360 --> 00:30:52,920
Speaker 4: He was up at the line of scrimmage.

613
00:30:53,000 --> 00:30:55,560
Speaker 5: So I do think Ramsey playing more at the line

614
00:30:55,560 --> 00:30:58,360
Speaker 5: of scrimmage getting tackles for loss helps them in this matchup.

615
00:30:58,560 --> 00:30:59,800
Speaker 4: But I'm also curious.

616
00:30:59,520 --> 00:31:02,120
Speaker 5: To say, do the Rams just let the Coats run,

617
00:31:02,160 --> 00:31:04,440
Speaker 5: because I think if they do, that's not gonna turn

618
00:31:04,440 --> 00:31:06,080
Speaker 5: out as well as it did against the Bears. Like

619
00:31:06,240 --> 00:31:08,040
Speaker 5: the Coats are a team that wants to run anyway,

620
00:31:08,400 --> 00:31:10,479
Speaker 5: they'll be able to do more with that. You know,

621
00:31:10,600 --> 00:31:12,920
Speaker 5: the Bears they got a good game out of Montgomery

622
00:31:12,920 --> 00:31:15,360
Speaker 5: and still put up what fourteen points of offense.

623
00:31:15,560 --> 00:31:16,840
Speaker 4: I think the Coats will be better than that.

624
00:31:17,280 --> 00:31:20,200
Speaker 5: I think the Rams they played well against Chicago, but

625
00:31:20,240 --> 00:31:22,600
Speaker 5: they also know that defense because that's that Vic Fangio

626
00:31:22,680 --> 00:31:25,120
Speaker 5: Brandon's stailely defense that you talked about, like, I wouldn't

627
00:31:25,120 --> 00:31:26,840
Speaker 5: be surprised if Coats won this game, but I also

628
00:31:26,840 --> 00:31:28,360
Speaker 5: wouldn't be surprised if they got blown out.

629
00:31:28,480 --> 00:31:30,720
Speaker 4: I need to see another week at least of Carson Wentz.

630
00:31:30,840 --> 00:31:34,240
Speaker 5: Carson Wentz since twenty eighteen, so over the last three

631
00:31:34,240 --> 00:31:37,360
Speaker 5: plus years, just fourteen and twenty six against the spread.

632
00:31:39,360 --> 00:31:43,240
Speaker 4: He just hasn't been effected. All right, Let's go to.

633
00:31:43,600 --> 00:31:47,080
Speaker 5: The fifth overall pick, my third pick at a Sunday

634
00:31:47,120 --> 00:31:50,040
Speaker 5: six pack. I'm taking the Eagles plus three and a half.

635
00:31:50,600 --> 00:31:54,240
Speaker 5: Try to get that hook. You know, a lot of

636
00:31:54,240 --> 00:31:56,240
Speaker 5: different spots still have it at three and a half,

637
00:31:56,280 --> 00:31:59,560
Speaker 5: but I have seen some books move two three. But

638
00:32:00,400 --> 00:32:03,840
Speaker 5: this is probably the one, and you kind of alluded

639
00:32:03,880 --> 00:32:06,680
Speaker 5: to it, the one spot where I'm not just going

640
00:32:06,720 --> 00:32:10,480
Speaker 5: on the I'm not looking. I guess to fade the

641
00:32:10,520 --> 00:32:12,800
Speaker 5: week one noise. I think the market is still a

642
00:32:12,800 --> 00:32:16,640
Speaker 5: little bit low on Philly. The reason so much isn't

643
00:32:16,680 --> 00:32:18,680
Speaker 5: Philly who I thought would hand to Atlanta.

644
00:32:19,080 --> 00:32:19,880
Speaker 4: It wasn't really a.

645
00:32:19,840 --> 00:32:23,480
Speaker 5: Popular call outside of this podcast, I don't think, but

646
00:32:24,120 --> 00:32:25,600
Speaker 5: we both thought Philly would handle Atlanta.

647
00:32:25,640 --> 00:32:27,280
Speaker 4: I just thought they had an edge in the trenches.

648
00:32:28,000 --> 00:32:30,360
Speaker 5: But here you have, First of all, I think the

649
00:32:30,400 --> 00:32:32,720
Speaker 5: total of this game is too high. So you know

650
00:32:33,080 --> 00:32:36,240
Speaker 5: right there, that's gonna yeah, that's gonna be more. That's

651
00:32:36,240 --> 00:32:38,360
Speaker 5: gonna be more value on the dog while we're scoring

652
00:32:38,360 --> 00:32:41,480
Speaker 5: a game. That's why I love the hook. But remember this,

653
00:32:41,720 --> 00:32:44,400
Speaker 5: Both of these teams can get pressure, they don't have

654
00:32:44,440 --> 00:32:46,200
Speaker 5: the blitz to do it. Philly finished number two in

655
00:32:46,280 --> 00:32:48,640
Speaker 5: pressure rate. Both of these teams in Week one bottom

656
00:32:48,640 --> 00:32:51,000
Speaker 5: form blitz rate. I just think this is gonna be

657
00:32:51,040 --> 00:32:54,320
Speaker 5: a defensive struggle. Looking back at San Francisco's defense, even

658
00:32:54,320 --> 00:32:57,320
Speaker 5: when it's clicking, what do they have trouble with? They

659
00:32:57,400 --> 00:33:00,600
Speaker 5: have trouble with those mobile quarterbacks because they're not necessarily

660
00:33:00,600 --> 00:33:02,160
Speaker 5: gonna send pressure and get guys are gonna be in

661
00:33:02,200 --> 00:33:03,600
Speaker 5: the back for it. So if the quarterback, you know,

662
00:33:03,720 --> 00:33:06,960
Speaker 5: drops back, nothing's there and pressure comes, he only he

663
00:33:07,000 --> 00:33:07,440
Speaker 5: has four.

664
00:33:07,520 --> 00:33:09,720
Speaker 4: You know, it's still five on four plus the quarterback.

665
00:33:10,040 --> 00:33:12,280
Speaker 5: A lot of the time, you know, to beat that pressure,

666
00:33:12,680 --> 00:33:16,240
Speaker 5: and Jalen Hurts could do that. San Francisco's not going

667
00:33:16,360 --> 00:33:18,200
Speaker 5: for eleven and a half yards for attempt this week

668
00:33:18,280 --> 00:33:20,960
Speaker 5: against Philly. I was really impressed with Philly's defensive and

669
00:33:21,000 --> 00:33:24,160
Speaker 5: I think I remember you saying like word for word, Yeah,

670
00:33:24,360 --> 00:33:26,480
Speaker 5: like you said word for word like Philly's defense is

671
00:33:26,520 --> 00:33:28,760
Speaker 5: going to make the biggest week out of any defense

672
00:33:28,800 --> 00:33:31,880
Speaker 5: this year. And that is looking even more like spot

673
00:33:31,880 --> 00:33:33,840
Speaker 5: on after Week one because in Lanta did.

674
00:33:33,800 --> 00:33:37,800
Speaker 4: Nothing a rookie like yeah, and Arthur Smith looked like

675
00:33:37,800 --> 00:33:38,240
Speaker 4: a rookie.

676
00:33:38,280 --> 00:33:40,800
Speaker 5: That's even more impressive, I think, because you know Arthur

677
00:33:40,800 --> 00:33:44,200
Speaker 5: Smith is pretty good coordinator. Will Atlanta played better this week?

678
00:33:44,240 --> 00:33:46,160
Speaker 5: Maybe not because I hate their match up against Tampa

679
00:33:46,160 --> 00:33:46,520
Speaker 5: Bay two.

680
00:33:46,760 --> 00:33:47,080
Speaker 4: I don't know.

681
00:33:47,120 --> 00:33:49,040
Speaker 5: If they play better, they might just be this bad.

682
00:33:49,160 --> 00:33:53,320
Speaker 5: But regardless, Philly at home catching three and a half,

683
00:33:53,760 --> 00:33:58,160
Speaker 5: San Francisco going cross country, probably a low scoring defensive

684
00:33:58,240 --> 00:34:02,720
Speaker 5: battle a quarterback who can San Francisco can do everything right,

685
00:34:02,760 --> 00:34:06,480
Speaker 5: have the right call on defense, and Philly could still

686
00:34:06,480 --> 00:34:08,239
Speaker 5: beat it. This is just too many points for a

687
00:34:08,239 --> 00:34:11,560
Speaker 5: Philly team that was dominant. Philly has offensive line that

688
00:34:11,600 --> 00:34:13,520
Speaker 5: can protect, they have a defensive line that can get

689
00:34:13,520 --> 00:34:16,840
Speaker 5: after it, so they're not really Most teams are disadvantaged

690
00:34:16,840 --> 00:34:19,480
Speaker 5: against San Francisco because San Francisco is going to beat

691
00:34:19,480 --> 00:34:22,239
Speaker 5: you in the trenches, right, San Francisco has a good

692
00:34:22,280 --> 00:34:25,279
Speaker 5: O line, good D line, Philly. That's not going to

693
00:34:25,320 --> 00:34:27,280
Speaker 5: be an issue. So now you're just talking about Jimmy

694
00:34:27,280 --> 00:34:29,640
Speaker 5: g versus Jayalen Hurts, and you have one of them

695
00:34:29,680 --> 00:34:31,520
Speaker 5: that can make better offscript praise than the others. So

696
00:34:32,040 --> 00:34:33,920
Speaker 5: give me the Eagles plus three and a half.

697
00:34:33,960 --> 00:34:39,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, I completely agree. I think that unlock. The logic

698
00:34:39,680 --> 00:34:43,919
Speaker 2: would say, oh wait, the Eagles covered by twenty eight

699
00:34:43,920 --> 00:34:45,880
Speaker 2: points or whatever, and you should fail them. But you

700
00:34:45,920 --> 00:34:48,200
Speaker 2: know it's not. Science hasn't hit one hundred percent time

701
00:34:48,360 --> 00:34:50,319
Speaker 2: I discrewed here, I played the Eagles. I would have

702
00:34:50,320 --> 00:34:52,839
Speaker 2: had the Eagles in again, all three of your picks

703
00:34:52,880 --> 00:34:56,960
Speaker 2: I would have had or I had the six picks. Yeah,

704
00:34:57,120 --> 00:34:59,520
Speaker 2: that of my potential, and then you took three of them,

705
00:34:59,520 --> 00:35:01,080
Speaker 2: and then I took the three that were left, which

706
00:35:01,120 --> 00:35:03,120
Speaker 2: is pretty crazy. So we're on this and you.

707
00:35:03,120 --> 00:35:05,200
Speaker 5: Know what's crazy is the only one you kind of

708
00:35:05,239 --> 00:35:08,920
Speaker 5: disagree with me with was me betting against Seattle, Like

709
00:35:09,000 --> 00:35:11,400
Speaker 5: this is, this is all backwards for the Action Network

710
00:35:11,719 --> 00:35:14,000
Speaker 5: fl podcast Like this is this is gonna be a

711
00:35:14,000 --> 00:35:14,680
Speaker 5: weird ass week.

712
00:35:15,080 --> 00:35:18,319
Speaker 2: Yeah, trust me, we'll have a lot of disagreement throughout

713
00:35:18,320 --> 00:35:21,279
Speaker 2: the year, but we're on the same page this this week. Now,

714
00:35:21,320 --> 00:35:24,160
Speaker 2: I'd say I had six. One of them which I

715
00:35:24,160 --> 00:35:27,759
Speaker 2: didn't pick, I'll talk about later and then yeah, your

716
00:35:28,080 --> 00:35:31,080
Speaker 2: your three. I'm sorry at seven out of the seven

717
00:35:31,200 --> 00:35:33,799
Speaker 2: whatever we're based on the same page this week. But yeah,

718
00:35:33,800 --> 00:35:36,360
Speaker 2: I agree. I think that the Eagles defense is not

719
00:35:36,840 --> 00:35:41,480
Speaker 2: being that that jump that they showed flashes and glimpses

720
00:35:41,480 --> 00:35:44,520
Speaker 2: of it last week is not being accounted for properly

721
00:35:44,520 --> 00:35:45,759
Speaker 2: in the market. I think they're going to make an

722
00:35:45,920 --> 00:35:50,359
Speaker 2: enormous leap this year. On top of that. Look San

723
00:35:50,440 --> 00:35:55,360
Speaker 2: fran they didn't escape that game without injury, and I

724
00:35:55,360 --> 00:35:58,000
Speaker 2: don't think that's being properly adjusted. The Eagles are fairly

725
00:35:58,040 --> 00:36:00,840
Speaker 2: healthy after Week one by you know, you look at

726
00:36:00,880 --> 00:36:04,239
Speaker 2: San France corner situation now where they're talking about bringing

727
00:36:04,320 --> 00:36:06,600
Speaker 2: Richard Sherman back again. I don't think that's gonna happen,

728
00:36:06,640 --> 00:36:08,799
Speaker 2: but that's they have a number of guys that are

729
00:36:08,920 --> 00:36:12,919
Speaker 2: that are banned up and Philly is significantly healthier. I agree,

730
00:36:12,920 --> 00:36:15,160
Speaker 2: I think the total's too high. You also have, you know,

731
00:36:15,360 --> 00:36:18,400
Speaker 2: two new defensive coordinators, so there's not a lot of

732
00:36:18,440 --> 00:36:20,759
Speaker 2: tap on what they want to do, and I think

733
00:36:20,760 --> 00:36:23,120
Speaker 2: that can work to their advantage. But I love what

734
00:36:23,239 --> 00:36:26,160
Speaker 2: this Philly defense showed in Week one. I think over

735
00:36:26,200 --> 00:36:30,239
Speaker 2: the first at least half the season, you're gonna see

736
00:36:30,239 --> 00:36:35,200
Speaker 2: this Philly defense time and time again overperform expectations. I'm

737
00:36:35,239 --> 00:36:38,640
Speaker 2: completely on board with you with Philadelphia.

738
00:36:37,760 --> 00:36:39,200
Speaker 5: And I got to give you a shout out because

739
00:36:39,239 --> 00:36:43,360
Speaker 5: I think you set it on the Our Win Totals

740
00:36:43,520 --> 00:36:47,400
Speaker 5: pod before the season with Kerner for the NFC that like,

741
00:36:47,440 --> 00:36:50,400
Speaker 5: you're going high upside with Philly to win a division

742
00:36:51,000 --> 00:36:55,520
Speaker 5: right now, like I think Philly may, especially if they

743
00:36:55,520 --> 00:36:58,319
Speaker 5: can pull this upset here even if they don't, though

744
00:36:58,600 --> 00:36:59,919
Speaker 5: they might be in the driver's seat.

745
00:37:00,239 --> 00:37:02,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree. I'm feeling good about that one. I

746
00:37:02,680 --> 00:37:05,959
Speaker 2: only made two division future bets. That one I feel

747
00:37:05,960 --> 00:37:08,640
Speaker 2: good about at the week one. The other I don't.

748
00:37:08,960 --> 00:37:11,359
Speaker 2: But it takes me to my third pick in the

749
00:37:11,400 --> 00:37:16,600
Speaker 2: sixth overall of the Sunday six pack, the Jacksonville Jaguars

750
00:37:17,160 --> 00:37:23,520
Speaker 2: past six at home against the Denver Broncos. Now, I'm

751
00:37:23,520 --> 00:37:26,480
Speaker 2: gonna get a producer to throw in some cringe sound.

752
00:37:26,960 --> 00:37:28,879
Speaker 4: The guy is drunk, But there we go.

753
00:37:29,320 --> 00:37:33,399
Speaker 2: Here are the quarterbacks I'm backing in the Sunday six pack.

754
00:37:34,000 --> 00:37:38,040
Speaker 2: This is so weak two for me, Sam Darnold, Carson Wentz,

755
00:37:38,719 --> 00:37:42,920
Speaker 2: and now Trevor Lawrence. So, speaking of Trevor Lawrence, he

756
00:37:42,920 --> 00:37:45,400
Speaker 2: looked awful last week by any metric, if you look

757
00:37:45,440 --> 00:37:48,359
Speaker 2: at any all he grated out just the offense wasn't working,

758
00:37:48,400 --> 00:37:50,640
Speaker 2: the defense was abysmal. I mean, he threw three picks

759
00:37:50,680 --> 00:37:54,040
Speaker 2: against the worst arguably the worst defense in the NFL.

760
00:37:54,440 --> 00:37:56,720
Speaker 2: But it's Week one on the road in the divisional

761
00:37:56,760 --> 00:38:00,440
Speaker 2: game for a rookie, a top overall draft You want

762
00:38:00,440 --> 00:38:03,120
Speaker 2: to know what top overall draft picks have done. And

763
00:38:03,160 --> 00:38:04,799
Speaker 2: it's the reason one of the reasons we were on

764
00:38:05,120 --> 00:38:07,719
Speaker 2: the Texans to win that game. They're now since two

765
00:38:07,760 --> 00:38:11,120
Speaker 2: thousand and three, they're now oh and oh seven and

766
00:38:11,160 --> 00:38:13,839
Speaker 2: one straight up. Kyler Murray tied the Lions at home

767
00:38:14,400 --> 00:38:16,880
Speaker 2: oh seven and one straight up and one in seven

768
00:38:16,920 --> 00:38:20,680
Speaker 2: against the spread in Week one. Top overall draft pick

769
00:38:21,040 --> 00:38:23,920
Speaker 2: that year starts in Week one oh seven and one

770
00:38:23,960 --> 00:38:28,960
Speaker 2: straight up, one and seven against the spread. Stafford Bradford, Newton,

771
00:38:29,760 --> 00:38:34,360
Speaker 2: Locke Winston, Kyler Burrow and now Trevor Lawrence. What have

772
00:38:34,400 --> 00:38:39,080
Speaker 2: they done the following week, Well, they went six. They've

773
00:38:39,160 --> 00:38:43,080
Speaker 2: they've combined to go six and one against the spread

774
00:38:43,320 --> 00:38:47,680
Speaker 2: pending Lawrence's results. So obviously the market was, hey, look,

775
00:38:47,880 --> 00:38:49,760
Speaker 2: this kind of speaks to this whole week two of reaction.

776
00:38:50,320 --> 00:38:53,960
Speaker 2: Top overall pick, this quarterback is going to be great.

777
00:38:54,160 --> 00:38:56,080
Speaker 2: You know, shifs to bed in week one and then

778
00:38:56,080 --> 00:38:58,560
Speaker 2: they say, oh, this team's terrible. Usually it's a bad team.

779
00:38:58,600 --> 00:39:00,960
Speaker 2: So then you say, oh, well the quarterback now terrible too.

780
00:39:01,000 --> 00:39:03,000
Speaker 2: They had the top overall pick for a reason and

781
00:39:03,040 --> 00:39:06,759
Speaker 2: then they get sold. So I think there's value here,

782
00:39:06,880 --> 00:39:10,680
Speaker 2: which is why this line is six. This this look

783
00:39:10,680 --> 00:39:13,359
Speaker 2: at line was two and a half. Two and a half. Now,

784
00:39:13,360 --> 00:39:17,320
Speaker 2: I know Jacksonville looked awful. Denver I loved, I love Denver.

785
00:39:17,400 --> 00:39:20,759
Speaker 2: I will talk about my love for Denver. This line

786
00:39:20,760 --> 00:39:25,400
Speaker 2: should not be six. It might prove that, you know,

787
00:39:25,520 --> 00:39:29,000
Speaker 2: in five to six weeks, it might look like we

788
00:39:29,080 --> 00:39:30,640
Speaker 2: might look back and say, yeah, the line should have

789
00:39:30,640 --> 00:39:32,040
Speaker 2: been six, but we don't know that yet. And this

790
00:39:32,200 --> 00:39:36,840
Speaker 2: is a massive over adjustment. And I think Trevor Lawrence,

791
00:39:37,000 --> 00:39:39,960
Speaker 2: you can expect him to settle down to look a

792
00:39:40,000 --> 00:39:42,640
Speaker 2: little more comfortable in his second start. It's a guy

793
00:39:42,640 --> 00:39:45,320
Speaker 2: that I was high on. I know that the Jags

794
00:39:45,520 --> 00:39:50,040
Speaker 2: have issues, you know, offensive tackle, at defense, particularly in

795
00:39:50,920 --> 00:39:54,359
Speaker 2: the secondary. But this is still You're catching six at

796
00:39:54,360 --> 00:39:58,319
Speaker 2: home after that embarrassing performance. And don't sleep on the

797
00:39:58,320 --> 00:40:01,880
Speaker 2: fact that the humidity he's going to be one billion

798
00:40:01,960 --> 00:40:07,719
Speaker 2: percent in Jacksonville on Sundays and that's not something Denver's

799
00:40:07,800 --> 00:40:11,719
Speaker 2: used to a screen bay. How they handled it so

800
00:40:11,920 --> 00:40:15,360
Speaker 2: that I think is almost like an altitude edge for

801
00:40:15,560 --> 00:40:18,480
Speaker 2: that Denver has at home. But that humidity, it looks

802
00:40:18,520 --> 00:40:20,000
Speaker 2: like it's gonna be one of the like I mean,

803
00:40:20,280 --> 00:40:22,560
Speaker 2: people from Jacksonville, North Fort, I know how bad that

804
00:40:22,640 --> 00:40:24,320
Speaker 2: humidity can get. It looks like it's going to be

805
00:40:24,320 --> 00:40:27,520
Speaker 2: a nasty and that could work in Jacksonville's favor. Look

806
00:40:27,520 --> 00:40:31,880
Speaker 2: at this display does require me to fade Teddy Bridgewater

807
00:40:31,880 --> 00:40:33,680
Speaker 2: on the road, who's twenty two and three against the

808
00:40:33,719 --> 00:40:36,799
Speaker 2: spread on the road, twenty two and three. All he

809
00:40:36,880 --> 00:40:39,600
Speaker 2: does is is cover ball games. But look, it's still

810
00:40:39,640 --> 00:40:43,760
Speaker 2: a Denver team that's defense first, and this total is low.

811
00:40:43,920 --> 00:40:47,400
Speaker 2: Catching six at home, I have to do it. I

812
00:40:47,640 --> 00:40:49,880
Speaker 2: you know, it's ugly. I had to hold my nose

813
00:40:50,320 --> 00:40:52,840
Speaker 2: to put the bed in close. My eyes. It cement.

814
00:40:53,280 --> 00:40:57,080
Speaker 2: But this this is you know, everything that I stand

815
00:40:57,080 --> 00:40:59,040
Speaker 2: for is an NFL better. I mean I'm I project

816
00:40:59,080 --> 00:41:02,080
Speaker 2: the line now three and a half and now I'm

817
00:41:02,080 --> 00:41:07,560
Speaker 2: getting six, So give me a humid take maybe, but

818
00:41:07,600 --> 00:41:12,080
Speaker 2: hopefully the humidity works in our favor. And rookie quarterbacks

819
00:41:12,080 --> 00:41:15,160
Speaker 2: who went number one overall in the NFL Draft after

820
00:41:15,200 --> 00:41:17,239
Speaker 2: going one and seven against the spread in Week one,

821
00:41:17,960 --> 00:41:20,399
Speaker 2: can potentially improved a seven to one against the spread

822
00:41:20,400 --> 00:41:24,000
Speaker 2: in the week two. I'm back in the Jags, sadly.

823
00:41:23,960 --> 00:41:26,399
Speaker 4: Do you know the straight up record by any chance

824
00:41:26,440 --> 00:41:27,680
Speaker 4: for those for those quarterbacks?

825
00:41:28,960 --> 00:41:32,880
Speaker 2: I think just yeah, two and five. The only team

826
00:41:32,960 --> 00:41:35,600
Speaker 2: that got blown out was Stafford in the lines. That

827
00:41:35,719 --> 00:41:38,000
Speaker 2: line's team was that two thousand and nine line team

828
00:41:38,080 --> 00:41:38,640
Speaker 2: was awful.

829
00:41:39,360 --> 00:41:40,720
Speaker 4: I mean, this line is agreedious.

830
00:41:40,719 --> 00:41:42,920
Speaker 5: Though I was kind of hoping you would take it

831
00:41:43,040 --> 00:41:44,879
Speaker 5: because I didn't want to take it with my first pick,

832
00:41:45,280 --> 00:41:48,000
Speaker 5: and I was just like, yo, this line is off.

833
00:41:48,040 --> 00:41:49,960
Speaker 5: I have it at four, so I have two points

834
00:41:50,000 --> 00:41:52,319
Speaker 5: of value and it's set. The majority of the money

835
00:41:52,360 --> 00:41:55,120
Speaker 5: and bets are on the Broncos, so it's probably only

836
00:41:55,160 --> 00:41:56,759
Speaker 5: going up. I wouldn't be surprised if it gets to

837
00:41:56,800 --> 00:42:00,640
Speaker 5: six and a half. Seven, But I'm I'm just putting

838
00:42:00,640 --> 00:42:02,400
Speaker 5: an urban meyer on like a wait and see like,

839
00:42:03,200 --> 00:42:08,040
Speaker 5: I like, that's really right so far it's well, I

840
00:42:08,080 --> 00:42:10,080
Speaker 5: mean that was Yeah, that was one of my better

841
00:42:10,080 --> 00:42:12,040
Speaker 5: calls I think of the offseason. Was just like yo,

842
00:42:12,280 --> 00:42:14,080
Speaker 5: this Urban Meyer is just somebody to watch for it.

843
00:42:14,200 --> 00:42:17,400
Speaker 5: But like I agree, this line is egregious. And that's

844
00:42:17,440 --> 00:42:19,799
Speaker 5: why I was kind of asking you about the straight

845
00:42:19,880 --> 00:42:22,759
Speaker 5: up record because if I do bet the Jags in

846
00:42:22,800 --> 00:42:25,120
Speaker 5: this game, and it would be a real nose hold,

847
00:42:25,160 --> 00:42:27,160
Speaker 5: but I want more than like minus one ten, like

848
00:42:27,200 --> 00:42:29,759
Speaker 5: I want my I want my money line straight like

849
00:42:29,760 --> 00:42:32,040
Speaker 5: you know what I mean, I want a reward for

850
00:42:32,200 --> 00:42:36,600
Speaker 5: backing this fuck boy Urban Meyer. Like it's like you

851
00:42:36,680 --> 00:42:39,400
Speaker 5: know what I mean, Like he had his team completely

852
00:42:39,480 --> 00:42:42,480
Speaker 5: unprepared against so like where does this what does the

853
00:42:42,520 --> 00:42:43,680
Speaker 5: strength of schedule say? Now?

854
00:42:43,840 --> 00:42:45,319
Speaker 4: Like are the.

855
00:42:45,360 --> 00:42:47,560
Speaker 5: Jack do the Jaguars going to the Texans slot? And

856
00:42:47,719 --> 00:42:50,120
Speaker 5: like the and like all these teams strength the schedules,

857
00:42:50,160 --> 00:42:50,800
Speaker 5: Because I mean.

858
00:42:51,160 --> 00:42:52,480
Speaker 4: That was bad like that.

859
00:42:52,600 --> 00:42:55,560
Speaker 5: There's no excuse you could lose to the Texans team

860
00:42:55,640 --> 00:42:58,160
Speaker 5: with a veteran quarterback who doesn't turn it over and

861
00:42:58,360 --> 00:43:01,840
Speaker 5: has a veteran coaching staff week one, but to get

862
00:43:01,880 --> 00:43:05,000
Speaker 5: blown out by the Texans week one. That was That

863
00:43:05,040 --> 00:43:06,960
Speaker 5: was inexcusable. So that's yeah, that's the only thing that's

864
00:43:07,040 --> 00:43:09,520
Speaker 5: kept me off to the spread. So if I bet this,

865
00:43:09,640 --> 00:43:11,880
Speaker 5: it's gonna be moneyline or nothing. That's just that's just

866
00:43:11,880 --> 00:43:14,439
Speaker 5: where I'm going with this game. To your point about Teddy,

867
00:43:14,440 --> 00:43:16,600
Speaker 5: because I'll give you the Devil's advocateake.

868
00:43:16,719 --> 00:43:19,680
Speaker 4: He's twenty two and three against the spread on a road.

869
00:43:19,800 --> 00:43:22,200
Speaker 5: He's only been favored on the road four times, never

870
00:43:22,560 --> 00:43:23,759
Speaker 5: by more than three.

871
00:43:23,680 --> 00:43:26,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, this is a six point spread. This line is egregious.

872
00:43:26,640 --> 00:43:27,719
Speaker 4: I'm gonna be watching this one.

873
00:43:27,640 --> 00:43:32,000
Speaker 5: Closely, all right. That's that doesn't for our Sunday six pack. Uh,

874
00:43:32,960 --> 00:43:37,400
Speaker 5: this should be an interesting one. Stuck has the Carolina

875
00:43:37,440 --> 00:43:41,799
Speaker 5: Panthers plus three and a half, the Indianapolis Colts plus four,

876
00:43:41,920 --> 00:43:48,000
Speaker 5: and the Jacksonville Jaguars plus six. Back in Donald's back

877
00:43:48,040 --> 00:43:51,200
Speaker 5: and Wentz back in Trevor and the humidity.

878
00:43:51,520 --> 00:43:54,279
Speaker 2: We two's about back in the humidity, And Yeah, a

879
00:43:54,320 --> 00:43:55,560
Speaker 2: lot of times I end up with a lot of

880
00:43:55,560 --> 00:43:58,120
Speaker 2: home dogs in Week two and a lot of ugly

881
00:43:58,200 --> 00:43:59,160
Speaker 2: quarterbacks this week.

882
00:43:59,520 --> 00:44:01,680
Speaker 5: That's exactly approached to take early in the year, and

883
00:44:01,680 --> 00:44:04,000
Speaker 5: then as we get more data, our numbers are our

884
00:44:04,040 --> 00:44:06,719
Speaker 5: standard deviations are gonna go down. Our Deltas are going

885
00:44:06,760 --> 00:44:09,960
Speaker 5: to be less and then we have to find different edges.

886
00:44:09,960 --> 00:44:12,960
Speaker 5: But right now there's still a lot of uncertainty and

887
00:44:13,680 --> 00:44:16,640
Speaker 5: one day to point, like you said for is week one.

888
00:44:16,719 --> 00:44:19,920
Speaker 5: So to recap for my picks in the week two

889
00:44:19,920 --> 00:44:24,520
Speaker 5: Sunday six pack, Minnesota plus three and a half, Tennessee

890
00:44:24,920 --> 00:44:28,600
Speaker 5: plus five and a half, Philadelphia plus three and a half.

891
00:44:28,880 --> 00:44:32,239
Speaker 5: That is going to wrap our Week two Sunday six pack.

892
00:44:32,800 --> 00:44:37,520
Speaker 5: Let's get into our Coaches Pep Talk. For today's Coaches

893
00:44:37,560 --> 00:44:40,560
Speaker 5: Pep Talk, our producer Matt Mitchell shouts to Matt, shouts

894
00:44:40,560 --> 00:44:43,120
Speaker 5: to our guy, Dan Titus has grabbed the quip from

895
00:44:43,160 --> 00:44:47,120
Speaker 5: our favorite film or favorite film with a podcast, and

896
00:44:47,160 --> 00:44:49,399
Speaker 5: I'm sure we'll sneak more of this shit it into

897
00:44:49,440 --> 00:44:53,440
Speaker 5: the podcast this season. From Pete Bell from the nineteen

898
00:44:53,680 --> 00:44:56,640
Speaker 5: ninety four film Blue Chips Stuff. We got to dedicate

899
00:44:56,680 --> 00:44:59,400
Speaker 5: this one to Urban Meyer again. Two weeks of our

900
00:44:59,440 --> 00:45:03,400
Speaker 5: twenty twenty one one Action NFL podcast two Coaches pep Talks,

901
00:45:03,600 --> 00:45:05,120
Speaker 5: two dedications to Urban Meyers.

902
00:45:05,160 --> 00:45:08,160
Speaker 2: We gotta do it. Moves to South South South Southern

903
00:45:08,239 --> 00:45:10,000
Speaker 2: California and take care over the USC job.

904
00:45:10,800 --> 00:45:14,520
Speaker 4: He's absolutely not doing that, says everyone now. But uh yeah,

905
00:45:14,560 --> 00:45:15,440
Speaker 4: welcome to the NFL.

906
00:45:15,560 --> 00:45:19,719
Speaker 5: Bro. I mean, like James Robinson five carries? Like what

907
00:45:20,239 --> 00:45:23,440
Speaker 5: like this dude was nasty last year. You give Carlos

908
00:45:23,520 --> 00:45:25,880
Speaker 5: Hyde nine carries and James Robinson five and you have

909
00:45:26,000 --> 00:45:28,360
Speaker 5: your rookie quarterback throwing every down just to start the

910
00:45:28,440 --> 00:45:32,239
Speaker 5: game on a road Like, come on, man, Urban you're

911
00:45:32,320 --> 00:45:34,640
Speaker 5: dedicating this pep talk to you, man, Urban Meyer.

912
00:45:35,440 --> 00:45:36,680
Speaker 2: You keep playing away, you're playing.

913
00:45:36,680 --> 00:45:39,080
Speaker 4: We're gonna get an ass feet again tonight. I don't

914
00:45:39,200 --> 00:45:40,759
Speaker 4: stopped right now.

915
00:45:41,560 --> 00:45:44,520
Speaker 5: All right, let's get in to our favorite total of

916
00:45:44,600 --> 00:45:45,960
Speaker 5: the week, the week number two.

917
00:45:46,560 --> 00:45:48,480
Speaker 4: I stuck. I had the first pick in a six pack.

918
00:45:48,960 --> 00:45:52,520
Speaker 4: H taking us away with your top total bet for

919
00:45:52,560 --> 00:45:52,839
Speaker 4: this week.

920
00:45:53,440 --> 00:45:56,759
Speaker 6: Uh, well, we've already I've already provided enough pain and

921
00:45:57,000 --> 00:45:59,040
Speaker 6: some of the quarterbacks are back, and so let's uh

922
00:46:00,239 --> 00:46:02,799
Speaker 6: make it even a more painful week and go back

923
00:46:02,880 --> 00:46:06,080
Speaker 6: to the well with the Raiders under after we lost

924
00:46:06,160 --> 00:46:08,279
Speaker 6: under fifty one in a game that was seventeen to

925
00:46:08,320 --> 00:46:09,759
Speaker 6: seven with nine minutes to go.

926
00:46:10,239 --> 00:46:11,920
Speaker 2: But we're going back to We're going to the Raiders

927
00:46:12,000 --> 00:46:18,000
Speaker 2: under and under forty seven at at MGM. They're traveling

928
00:46:18,040 --> 00:46:22,160
Speaker 2: to the Steelers is an awful spot for them. Look,

929
00:46:23,040 --> 00:46:25,440
Speaker 2: they they act like they won a super Bowl twice.

930
00:46:25,520 --> 00:46:28,799
Speaker 2: They won twice at two celebrations, and you know, now

931
00:46:28,880 --> 00:46:33,000
Speaker 2: a short week traveling across the country to play Pittsburgh.

932
00:46:33,400 --> 00:46:37,000
Speaker 2: You know, Pittsburgh. Mike tom Win, predictable, Mike Tomlin showed

933
00:46:37,040 --> 00:46:40,440
Speaker 2: he's the road the road underdog goat once again.

934
00:46:40,760 --> 00:46:42,640
Speaker 4: The greatest of all time. Look at your work and

935
00:46:42,880 --> 00:46:43,400
Speaker 4: the road.

936
00:46:43,280 --> 00:46:46,120
Speaker 5: Under master, like he got the underwent to forty three

937
00:46:46,160 --> 00:46:48,759
Speaker 5: and fifteen and then like yeah, his his road cover

938
00:46:48,920 --> 00:46:50,279
Speaker 5: rate is still astronomical.

939
00:46:50,600 --> 00:46:55,359
Speaker 2: Yeah, but the Steelers still have issues. You know, if

940
00:46:55,360 --> 00:46:57,800
Speaker 2: you look at that game, it was very interesting. I

941
00:46:57,840 --> 00:47:00,319
Speaker 2: mean they didn't they only blitzed twice. And they're front

942
00:47:00,320 --> 00:47:03,520
Speaker 2: their defensive front. I mean, Melvin Ingram looked great. Obviously

943
00:47:03,600 --> 00:47:05,839
Speaker 2: you've WoT there, but their defensive front dominated the game.

944
00:47:05,920 --> 00:47:10,480
Speaker 2: I mean, Dawkins, for supposed to be their star left tackle,

945
00:47:10,520 --> 00:47:14,200
Speaker 2: looked awful for the Bills. Feliciano got worked for the Bills,

946
00:47:14,880 --> 00:47:18,200
Speaker 2: and you know, Feliciana lost a lot of weight. Dawkins

947
00:47:18,320 --> 00:47:20,879
Speaker 2: had COVID and maybe he's not healthy and fit yet.

948
00:47:20,920 --> 00:47:23,759
Speaker 2: But the Steelers defensive front dominated that game. They didn't

949
00:47:23,800 --> 00:47:26,120
Speaker 2: have the blitz and Buffalo couldn't do anything. But there

950
00:47:26,520 --> 00:47:29,200
Speaker 2: the Pittsburgh's offense could do anything. Fifty yards at the half.

951
00:47:30,200 --> 00:47:34,000
Speaker 2: Ben still just quick release average. You had the fastest,

952
00:47:34,000 --> 00:47:37,560
Speaker 2: the quickest release of anyone in the NFL. They're using

953
00:47:37,640 --> 00:47:39,759
Speaker 2: more of like an h back and they're running in

954
00:47:39,800 --> 00:47:43,680
Speaker 2: a little bit more. But I still don't buy this offense,

955
00:47:43,800 --> 00:47:46,320
Speaker 2: mainly because of the offensive line. And I actually I

956
00:47:46,320 --> 00:47:48,800
Speaker 2: have said this before, I think that the Raiders defense

957
00:47:48,800 --> 00:47:52,240
Speaker 2: will be better this year. You know, they added some pieces.

958
00:47:52,320 --> 00:47:56,520
Speaker 2: Crosby looks great. Just from a schematics perspective, they'll be better.

959
00:47:57,080 --> 00:47:58,879
Speaker 2: I think that they can get some pressure on Ben.

960
00:47:59,440 --> 00:48:02,720
Speaker 2: Then most importantly it's actually we'll get to the Ravens

961
00:48:02,800 --> 00:48:05,920
Speaker 2: Chiefs game. Two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL

962
00:48:06,000 --> 00:48:08,400
Speaker 2: over the past two years against the Blitz have been

963
00:48:09,520 --> 00:48:13,200
Speaker 2: Derek Carr and Patrick Mahomes, and the Ravens went all

964
00:48:13,280 --> 00:48:15,360
Speaker 2: out blitz all day and it actually worked for a

965
00:48:15,400 --> 00:48:18,400
Speaker 2: while against the Raiders. But Derek Carr, if you can

966
00:48:18,480 --> 00:48:20,160
Speaker 2: just get natural pressure on them, that's how you shut

967
00:48:20,200 --> 00:48:23,279
Speaker 2: down the Raiders offense. Pittsburgh can do that. I think

968
00:48:23,320 --> 00:48:26,400
Speaker 2: Pittsburgh's defensive line will control this game similar to what

969
00:48:26,440 --> 00:48:28,600
Speaker 2: they did against the Bills last week. And I think

970
00:48:28,680 --> 00:48:32,400
Speaker 2: Vegas's defense is a tad bit underrated. It's still not

971
00:48:32,480 --> 00:48:35,319
Speaker 2: a great unit, but I think it's better schematically. They

972
00:48:35,400 --> 00:48:38,880
Speaker 2: added some talent. It's unfortunate to lose in Gockway, it appears,

973
00:48:38,960 --> 00:48:44,000
Speaker 2: but just Pittsburgh offense is anemic, and you know, you

974
00:48:44,080 --> 00:48:46,600
Speaker 2: can't really trust Pittsburgh to come out here and blow

975
00:48:46,680 --> 00:48:49,680
Speaker 2: them out in this spot. They normally are a little flat,

976
00:48:49,960 --> 00:48:53,640
Speaker 2: and you can't really trust the Raiders to be, you know,

977
00:48:54,960 --> 00:48:57,360
Speaker 2: ready for this on a short week after beating the

978
00:48:57,480 --> 00:48:59,800
Speaker 2: Ravens on Monday night, so you could get off the

979
00:49:00,000 --> 00:49:02,919
Speaker 2: really flat start here, give me the under and more pain.

980
00:49:04,160 --> 00:49:06,920
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean every wide receiver Derek Carr talks up

981
00:49:07,120 --> 00:49:09,360
Speaker 5: is like trash. He's like, oh yeah, Jay Jones like

982
00:49:09,760 --> 00:49:12,399
Speaker 5: he's like he works harder than everyone. It's like, bro, y'all,

983
00:49:12,400 --> 00:49:13,200
Speaker 5: still don't really have.

984
00:49:13,400 --> 00:49:15,439
Speaker 2: I thought of you when Jay Jones have that game

985
00:49:15,480 --> 00:49:16,720
Speaker 2: when he touchdown.

986
00:49:17,080 --> 00:49:18,560
Speaker 4: Like Jesus, Like, I agree.

987
00:49:18,680 --> 00:49:21,640
Speaker 5: I think the Raiders offensive line isn't as good. I

988
00:49:21,760 --> 00:49:24,880
Speaker 5: think that was the point that they put up was

989
00:49:25,000 --> 00:49:27,160
Speaker 5: kind of a game script thing in terms of that

990
00:49:27,200 --> 00:49:28,400
Speaker 5: fourth quarter just went crazy.

991
00:49:29,040 --> 00:49:30,000
Speaker 4: I'm with you on that one.

992
00:49:30,400 --> 00:49:32,640
Speaker 5: For me, I am going to a game we actually

993
00:49:32,640 --> 00:49:37,000
Speaker 5: talked about earlier with my total Billy San Francisco under fifty,

994
00:49:37,600 --> 00:49:39,520
Speaker 5: like fifty, I did a double.

995
00:49:39,280 --> 00:49:41,560
Speaker 4: Take when I saw this line. I make it closer

996
00:49:41,640 --> 00:49:42,319
Speaker 4: to forty six.

997
00:49:43,239 --> 00:49:44,759
Speaker 5: I think most of us do have it in that

998
00:49:44,880 --> 00:49:47,839
Speaker 5: like forty five to forty seven range and our Action

999
00:49:48,000 --> 00:49:51,719
Speaker 5: Network pro projections here. I just think this is way

1000
00:49:51,800 --> 00:49:55,200
Speaker 5: too many points for two teams that are good on

1001
00:49:55,360 --> 00:49:58,359
Speaker 5: defense that can blitz. Both of them are bottom four

1002
00:49:58,440 --> 00:50:02,120
Speaker 5: and blitzerate. Okay, so in Week one they blitzed under

1003
00:50:02,120 --> 00:50:05,440
Speaker 5: ten percent of the time. That means they're playing seven

1004
00:50:05,480 --> 00:50:08,600
Speaker 5: guys in coverage. Philly was number two in pressure rate.

1005
00:50:08,680 --> 00:50:10,839
Speaker 5: San Francisco was middle of the pack. But that's also

1006
00:50:10,880 --> 00:50:13,680
Speaker 5: because there's weird game script. We know San Francisco can

1007
00:50:14,120 --> 00:50:16,919
Speaker 5: get pressure without blitzing, So you're gonna have two teams

1008
00:50:16,960 --> 00:50:19,960
Speaker 5: that are gonna sit back play coverage. San Francisco is

1009
00:50:20,040 --> 00:50:21,919
Speaker 5: the team that put up forty one points last week.

1010
00:50:22,320 --> 00:50:23,920
Speaker 5: You know, I think they were, you know, because of

1011
00:50:24,000 --> 00:50:26,880
Speaker 5: the favorite I think they're responsible for this wine kind

1012
00:50:26,880 --> 00:50:28,960
Speaker 5: of going up a little bit, you know, Detroit comes

1013
00:50:29,000 --> 00:50:31,239
Speaker 5: back on them. That's a wonky game script. But San

1014
00:50:31,280 --> 00:50:33,920
Speaker 5: Francisco going across the country, I mentioned it earlier, they

1015
00:50:34,000 --> 00:50:36,480
Speaker 5: could absolutely come out a little flat here, especially against

1016
00:50:36,520 --> 00:50:41,640
Speaker 5: the team who's big guys are talented, and you know

1017
00:50:41,719 --> 00:50:44,479
Speaker 5: it's always easier for those big guys for home games.

1018
00:50:44,480 --> 00:50:46,680
Speaker 5: You know, it's tough to go on the road. You

1019
00:50:46,760 --> 00:50:48,680
Speaker 5: know you gotta be on that flight and whatnot. So

1020
00:50:50,080 --> 00:50:51,480
Speaker 5: I think there's way too many points. And then you

1021
00:50:51,600 --> 00:50:55,320
Speaker 5: look at the results of how these teams play defense,

1022
00:50:55,600 --> 00:51:01,040
Speaker 5: getting pressure, playing coverage, not blitzing. San Francisco allowed just

1023
00:51:01,239 --> 00:51:04,359
Speaker 5: a three point three A dot in Philadelphia was four

1024
00:51:04,440 --> 00:51:04,919
Speaker 5: point five.

1025
00:51:05,440 --> 00:51:07,080
Speaker 4: Like, let's say I'm wrong about Philadelphia.

1026
00:51:07,160 --> 00:51:10,080
Speaker 5: Let's say San Francisco comes out, it plays well, and

1027
00:51:10,120 --> 00:51:13,120
Speaker 5: Philly doesn't cover. I still think you get this total

1028
00:51:13,320 --> 00:51:16,320
Speaker 5: under because I think San Francisco is gonna have to

1029
00:51:16,400 --> 00:51:19,399
Speaker 5: work for their scores. I don't think they're just gonna

1030
00:51:19,400 --> 00:51:21,040
Speaker 5: go up and down a field on this Philly defense.

1031
00:51:21,360 --> 00:51:23,120
Speaker 5: I don't think Philadelphia, for that matter, is gonna go

1032
00:51:23,200 --> 00:51:25,239
Speaker 5: up and down the field on San Francisco. I just

1033
00:51:25,320 --> 00:51:27,239
Speaker 5: think Jaalen Hurts has some potential to ruin some of

1034
00:51:27,280 --> 00:51:29,759
Speaker 5: their calls. There's I see this game as more like

1035
00:51:29,800 --> 00:51:32,200
Speaker 5: a you know, a twenty four to seventeen to twenty

1036
00:51:32,640 --> 00:51:35,879
Speaker 5: three twenty type game, not like a CEP twenty seven

1037
00:51:35,920 --> 00:51:38,600
Speaker 5: to twenty four you know, thirty to twenty four type situations.

1038
00:51:38,680 --> 00:51:40,239
Speaker 4: So I'm all over this under.

1039
00:51:40,320 --> 00:51:42,160
Speaker 5: I think it's a few points too high, Like this

1040
00:51:42,320 --> 00:51:44,040
Speaker 5: is one of the I think I'm off on this

1041
00:51:44,200 --> 00:51:44,879
Speaker 5: more than I've.

1042
00:51:44,800 --> 00:51:48,120
Speaker 4: Been off on a total in a while. So love

1043
00:51:48,200 --> 00:51:49,720
Speaker 4: the under fifty.

1044
00:51:50,440 --> 00:51:52,960
Speaker 2: I fully agree. Yeah. Again, this goes back to be

1045
00:51:53,040 --> 00:51:57,200
Speaker 2: thinking the Philly defense is underrated and not being properly

1046
00:51:57,200 --> 00:51:59,400
Speaker 2: accounted for. I don't think you see too many explosive

1047
00:51:59,480 --> 00:52:01,600
Speaker 2: plays yep in this one. Oh yeah, I agree with

1048
00:52:01,680 --> 00:52:03,040
Speaker 2: you on the under. I'll be adding that as well.

1049
00:52:04,000 --> 00:52:09,120
Speaker 5: Stuck going Pittsburgh Vegas under forty seven, I'm going Philly,

1050
00:52:09,200 --> 00:52:11,040
Speaker 5: San fran under fifty.

1051
00:52:13,760 --> 00:52:18,000
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1052
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Speaker 3: One eight hundred bets off in Iowa or one eight

1078
00:53:40,880 --> 00:53:43,480
Speaker 3: eight eight five three two thirty five hundred in Virginia.

1079
00:53:43,760 --> 00:53:46,880
Speaker 3: Bets sync not available in Nevada. Thanks so much for listening.

1080
00:53:47,160 --> 00:53:48,120
Speaker 3: Let's get back to the show.

1081
00:53:49,920 --> 00:53:53,399
Speaker 4: Now it's time for our favorite teasers by do week.

1082
00:53:53,680 --> 00:54:02,759
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, six point teasers, no two, don't change, don't.

1083
00:54:02,600 --> 00:54:11,960
Speaker 2: Tease me please, all right.

1084
00:54:12,520 --> 00:54:16,400
Speaker 5: For you guys unfamiliar with teasers, it just means that

1085
00:54:16,600 --> 00:54:18,840
Speaker 5: you can combine two bets and you get an allotted

1086
00:54:18,960 --> 00:54:22,440
Speaker 5: number of extra points to take down each spread, so

1087
00:54:22,520 --> 00:54:25,640
Speaker 5: a more favorable spread for each of the bets that

1088
00:54:25,719 --> 00:54:28,560
Speaker 5: you take. So the standard is usually a six point teaser.

1089
00:54:29,160 --> 00:54:32,960
Speaker 5: Books usually charged minus one twenty four it. Some books

1090
00:54:33,000 --> 00:54:34,799
Speaker 5: have been going up in price because there is an

1091
00:54:34,880 --> 00:54:37,920
Speaker 5: edge to these things, all right. So for example, if

1092
00:54:37,920 --> 00:54:41,399
Speaker 5: you've bet an eight point underdog with a six point taser,

1093
00:54:41,400 --> 00:54:43,719
Speaker 5: they become a fourteen point underdog. If you've been an

1094
00:54:43,760 --> 00:54:46,839
Speaker 5: eight point favorite with a six point teaser, now they're

1095
00:54:46,960 --> 00:54:48,000
Speaker 5: just a two point favorite.

1096
00:54:48,280 --> 00:54:50,480
Speaker 4: So the line is favorable for you.

1097
00:54:51,239 --> 00:54:51,560
Speaker 2: Stuck.

1098
00:54:51,680 --> 00:54:55,360
Speaker 5: You always talk about, you know, tease through the key numbers,

1099
00:54:55,400 --> 00:54:59,040
Speaker 5: the three, the four, the six, the seven. So when

1100
00:54:59,040 --> 00:55:00,640
Speaker 5: you can do that, you you would have an edge

1101
00:55:00,680 --> 00:55:04,640
Speaker 5: in these things. So every week we give our favorite teasers.

1102
00:55:04,640 --> 00:55:06,879
Speaker 5: Stuck has some great content out at actionnetwork dot com

1103
00:55:07,040 --> 00:55:10,239
Speaker 5: and the Action Network app about selecting your teasers each

1104
00:55:10,320 --> 00:55:12,719
Speaker 5: week at action network dot com and any action app.

1105
00:55:12,760 --> 00:55:14,359
Speaker 4: So be sure you check that out.

1106
00:55:14,640 --> 00:55:17,000
Speaker 2: Stutt Yeah, just go to Google and you can go

1107
00:55:17,040 --> 00:55:18,640
Speaker 2: to the Action Network and search, or go to Google

1108
00:55:18,760 --> 00:55:21,960
Speaker 2: to search Stucky teasers. You find the one of the

1109
00:55:22,000 --> 00:55:25,440
Speaker 2: many articles out there, a lot of stuff that was

1110
00:55:26,200 --> 00:55:29,840
Speaker 2: first written by Stanford Wang and then called Wang Teasers.

1111
00:55:29,880 --> 00:55:33,120
Speaker 2: You want to ideally tease through three and seven. So

1112
00:55:33,200 --> 00:55:36,239
Speaker 2: you want to bring a favorite that's between seven and

1113
00:55:36,280 --> 00:55:37,440
Speaker 2: a half and eight and a half down under a

1114
00:55:37,480 --> 00:55:39,759
Speaker 2: field goal and an underdog, you know, between one and

1115
00:55:39,800 --> 00:55:42,680
Speaker 2: a half and two and a half up over seven,

1116
00:55:42,760 --> 00:55:45,080
Speaker 2: crossing the key numbers of three and seven. If you

1117
00:55:45,160 --> 00:55:47,960
Speaker 2: want to pay minus one twenty or less in doing so,

1118
00:55:48,360 --> 00:55:50,880
Speaker 2: you pretty much have an edge. If you can do

1119
00:55:51,000 --> 00:55:55,920
Speaker 2: that blindly, lower the total, the better your teaser is

1120
00:55:55,920 --> 00:55:58,760
Speaker 2: because the points are more valuable among some other factors

1121
00:55:58,840 --> 00:56:00,800
Speaker 2: that you can check out in that article. But this

1122
00:56:00,920 --> 00:56:04,279
Speaker 2: week no teasers. No teasers for me, but there's no

1123
00:56:05,080 --> 00:56:08,319
Speaker 2: two pieces that actually fit. And I was peeking ahead

1124
00:56:08,320 --> 00:56:09,880
Speaker 2: of the next week. Next week we might have like

1125
00:56:10,040 --> 00:56:11,840
Speaker 2: there could be a big teaser week. There could be

1126
00:56:11,920 --> 00:56:14,160
Speaker 2: I think eight nine or ten. I was looking at

1127
00:56:14,200 --> 00:56:17,359
Speaker 2: for my projections eight nine or ten spreads that could

1128
00:56:17,360 --> 00:56:20,760
Speaker 2: be between like one and three. So I'm not getting

1129
00:56:20,760 --> 00:56:22,239
Speaker 2: too far ahead of myself. First, we had to get

1130
00:56:22,400 --> 00:56:24,960
Speaker 2: through some bad quarterbacks, but that should be interesting with

1131
00:56:25,000 --> 00:56:27,279
Speaker 2: this week. No teasers for me, But if I had

1132
00:56:27,360 --> 00:56:31,200
Speaker 2: to place one, what I would do is I would

1133
00:56:31,280 --> 00:56:34,839
Speaker 2: throw New England. I would tease them from six. Now

1134
00:56:34,960 --> 00:56:37,440
Speaker 2: you're not crossing seven. We were crossing a couple key

1135
00:56:37,520 --> 00:56:40,560
Speaker 2: numbers from six down to zero. I know it's the

1136
00:56:40,760 --> 00:56:43,640
Speaker 2: road division game for the first road division game for

1137
00:56:43,640 --> 00:56:45,760
Speaker 2: a rookie, but it's also a rookie and Zach Wilson

1138
00:56:45,840 --> 00:56:48,919
Speaker 2: for the Jets, who didn't look great last week going

1139
00:56:49,040 --> 00:56:51,840
Speaker 2: up against Bill Belichick, who's also coming off of a loss.

1140
00:56:53,040 --> 00:56:55,360
Speaker 2: That the Jets not a team that I was interested

1141
00:56:55,360 --> 00:56:57,840
Speaker 2: in betting this week. Maybe they got the seven or

1142
00:56:58,160 --> 00:57:01,239
Speaker 2: seven plus and I'm sure everyone's beending the Patriots. Maybe

1143
00:57:01,239 --> 00:57:03,960
Speaker 2: it does, but you know, the Jets also dealt with

1144
00:57:03,960 --> 00:57:07,520
Speaker 2: a lot of injuries on this roster that's already awful.

1145
00:57:08,120 --> 00:57:12,120
Speaker 2: So I'm pretty confident in the Patriots winning. So if

1146
00:57:12,160 --> 00:57:13,680
Speaker 2: I had to do a teaser, I would tease them

1147
00:57:13,800 --> 00:57:16,840
Speaker 2: down and then I would look at maybe teasing the

1148
00:57:16,960 --> 00:57:20,640
Speaker 2: Bengals up in what should be a low scoring game

1149
00:57:20,880 --> 00:57:23,680
Speaker 2: points at a premium. It's the I know it's the

1150
00:57:23,760 --> 00:57:27,040
Speaker 2: Andy Dalton revenge game, but it's just a really bad

1151
00:57:27,120 --> 00:57:29,320
Speaker 2: week for teasers, and the Bengals line has even come down.

1152
00:57:29,640 --> 00:57:32,520
Speaker 2: But if you can get the Bengals, you know, from

1153
00:57:32,760 --> 00:57:36,600
Speaker 2: too one and a half over seven, and then teasing

1154
00:57:36,680 --> 00:57:40,959
Speaker 2: with the Patriots to win, that's my favorite teaser option

1155
00:57:41,120 --> 00:57:43,000
Speaker 2: this week. But it's not a great teaser week.

1156
00:57:43,520 --> 00:57:46,240
Speaker 4: Yeah, I kind of looked around and.

1157
00:57:47,720 --> 00:57:49,760
Speaker 5: Struggle to kind of find my two favorites, but I

1158
00:57:49,800 --> 00:57:52,880
Speaker 5: think I settled on two and one half is one

1159
00:57:52,920 --> 00:57:54,760
Speaker 5: of the ones you're going with, and that is the

1160
00:57:54,840 --> 00:57:58,360
Speaker 5: New England Patriots teasing them from six to zero against

1161
00:57:58,400 --> 00:58:00,720
Speaker 5: this Jets team. With it, if the Jets one of

1162
00:58:00,760 --> 00:58:04,320
Speaker 5: your best players just went down and Makai Becton Patriots

1163
00:58:04,360 --> 00:58:06,440
Speaker 5: defense still looked good. You know, they held the Dolphins

1164
00:58:06,520 --> 00:58:09,320
Speaker 5: to seventeen points. Probably could have played even better, and

1165
00:58:09,640 --> 00:58:12,200
Speaker 5: obviously they had some unfortunate turnovers on the other side.

1166
00:58:12,840 --> 00:58:14,920
Speaker 5: I don't think that happens against the Jets, I think,

1167
00:58:15,160 --> 00:58:17,840
Speaker 5: but I also at the same time, I think sixteen

1168
00:58:17,880 --> 00:58:19,880
Speaker 5: points maybe enough to beat the Jets for the second

1169
00:58:19,920 --> 00:58:21,400
Speaker 5: week in a row. I think it's gonna be a

1170
00:58:21,440 --> 00:58:23,680
Speaker 5: low scoring game. It's another total. I got at forty

1171
00:58:23,720 --> 00:58:26,160
Speaker 5: three and a half down to forty two now, so

1172
00:58:26,920 --> 00:58:30,680
Speaker 5: hope people got on that one. The Patriots on the road,

1173
00:58:30,840 --> 00:58:34,720
Speaker 5: they Belichick's master schemer, so no surprise that they're twenty

1174
00:58:34,760 --> 00:58:37,480
Speaker 5: seven and thirteen toward the under on the road since

1175
00:58:37,520 --> 00:58:40,280
Speaker 5: twenty sixteen, so I love the under. Divisional unders also

1176
00:58:40,400 --> 00:58:43,120
Speaker 5: in week two are great, but you mentioned it Belichick

1177
00:58:43,440 --> 00:58:46,360
Speaker 5: coming off the loss forty four and twenty sixty nine

1178
00:58:46,400 --> 00:58:50,040
Speaker 5: percent against the spread, and then I'm gonna go with

1179
00:58:50,720 --> 00:58:53,560
Speaker 5: kind of a similar situation in just a.

1180
00:58:53,680 --> 00:58:56,920
Speaker 4: Matchup that I really like with a high total.

1181
00:58:57,000 --> 00:58:59,000
Speaker 5: So I like teasing it down just to get it

1182
00:58:59,040 --> 00:59:02,040
Speaker 5: into a reasonable range here because I think the Falcons

1183
00:59:02,400 --> 00:59:05,120
Speaker 5: are toasted against the Bucks. I know it's a divisional game.

1184
00:59:05,160 --> 00:59:08,200
Speaker 5: I know it's one of another spot where team got

1185
00:59:08,200 --> 00:59:11,200
Speaker 5: blown out in week one. Don't overreact, but I've been saying,

1186
00:59:11,440 --> 00:59:15,800
Speaker 5: like this Falcons team, they're like Arthur Smith. I love him,

1187
00:59:15,920 --> 00:59:18,160
Speaker 5: but this is not as talented as it used to be.

1188
00:59:18,200 --> 00:59:20,800
Speaker 5: I don't know if Matt Ryan is really a depth

1189
00:59:20,840 --> 00:59:24,720
Speaker 5: at playing without Julio, especially in this kind of You know,

1190
00:59:25,440 --> 00:59:28,480
Speaker 5: the lines are middling on both sides, if not below average,

1191
00:59:28,520 --> 00:59:29,640
Speaker 5: which a lot of people will.

1192
00:59:29,480 --> 00:59:30,440
Speaker 4: Probably argue they are.

1193
00:59:30,640 --> 00:59:33,160
Speaker 5: So it's another similar matchup to Philly in the sense

1194
00:59:33,240 --> 00:59:36,320
Speaker 5: that you have the Falcons just getting out manned in

1195
00:59:36,360 --> 00:59:38,440
Speaker 5: the trenches. I don't want any part of this twelve.

1196
00:59:38,840 --> 00:59:41,840
Speaker 4: But she liked the Bucks. She liked the Patriots, two

1197
00:59:41,920 --> 00:59:45,000
Speaker 4: teams I expect to win, probably handily.

1198
00:59:45,680 --> 00:59:48,440
Speaker 5: So that is going to wrap our teaser segment to

1199
00:59:48,560 --> 00:59:54,919
Speaker 5: recap stuck going with the Patriots from six to zero

1200
00:59:55,120 --> 00:59:57,320
Speaker 5: and the Bengals from two and a half to eight.

1201
00:59:57,240 --> 00:59:57,680
Speaker 4: And a half.

1202
00:59:57,880 --> 01:00:00,360
Speaker 5: I'm going with the Patriots from six to zero the

1203
01:00:00,480 --> 01:00:06,640
Speaker 5: Bucks from twelve to six. All right, let's get into

1204
01:00:06,800 --> 01:00:16,680
Speaker 5: our money line underdog parlay turning good weekends into great weekends.

1205
01:00:17,320 --> 01:00:21,640
Speaker 4: It's time for the money line parlay. Ock Man.

1206
01:00:21,720 --> 01:00:24,000
Speaker 5: I'm hyped to to to go to this segment because

1207
01:00:24,640 --> 01:00:27,040
Speaker 5: we had a good start to the season. I think

1208
01:00:27,080 --> 01:00:30,120
Speaker 5: we ate was like a four to one parlay for

1209
01:00:30,240 --> 01:00:35,320
Speaker 5: the listeners with the Eagles plus one forty Addeduana being

1210
01:00:35,400 --> 01:00:38,800
Speaker 5: your pick and the Texans plus one thirty at home

1211
01:00:38,840 --> 01:00:40,200
Speaker 5: against the Jags.

1212
01:00:40,280 --> 01:00:42,760
Speaker 4: Being my pick. So started off on a bang. How

1213
01:00:42,760 --> 01:00:44,200
Speaker 4: are we going to keep this going? Well?

1214
01:00:44,280 --> 01:00:47,720
Speaker 2: If it ain't broke, don't fix it. Last week we

1215
01:00:47,840 --> 01:00:52,320
Speaker 2: had the Eagles. I am going back to the Eagles

1216
01:00:52,360 --> 01:00:55,000
Speaker 2: to throw them in our underdog money line parlay talked

1217
01:00:55,040 --> 01:00:57,160
Speaker 2: about that and I was in defense. We think is

1218
01:00:57,240 --> 01:01:01,320
Speaker 2: underrated injuries Sam are dealing with I don't think of

1219
01:01:01,440 --> 01:01:03,400
Speaker 2: being properly accounted for where I think this is closer

1220
01:01:03,440 --> 01:01:06,040
Speaker 2: to a coin flip game. I think the Eagles will

1221
01:01:06,040 --> 01:01:07,880
Speaker 2: have a good shot here, so let's throw them back in.

1222
01:01:08,360 --> 01:01:10,280
Speaker 2: So yeah, so I'm going with the Eagles plus one

1223
01:01:10,440 --> 01:01:13,360
Speaker 2: thirty five. Now I'm curious to see, are you gonna

1224
01:01:13,400 --> 01:01:18,120
Speaker 2: throw the Texans in to go back to back? I

1225
01:01:18,200 --> 01:01:18,520
Speaker 2: hope not.

1226
01:01:19,000 --> 01:01:21,840
Speaker 5: I can't, man, even though I think the number might

1227
01:01:21,880 --> 01:01:23,360
Speaker 5: be getting out of hand in that game.

1228
01:01:23,560 --> 01:01:25,440
Speaker 4: But like, the one thing is Cleveland was.

1229
01:01:25,440 --> 01:01:28,320
Speaker 5: Top three in offensive success rate against k against k C,

1230
01:01:28,840 --> 01:01:32,400
Speaker 5: who's so well schemed that that's still you know if Baker,

1231
01:01:32,720 --> 01:01:34,720
Speaker 5: like everyone's saying it, but it's it's true. You know,

1232
01:01:34,880 --> 01:01:38,480
Speaker 5: one Baker Mayfield mistake away, you know, one defensive mistake

1233
01:01:38,520 --> 01:01:40,720
Speaker 5: away for for Cleveland on the other side, or two,

1234
01:01:41,480 --> 01:01:42,560
Speaker 5: it could have been a different game.

1235
01:01:42,880 --> 01:01:45,919
Speaker 4: So I wouldn't go there. We'll talk about that game.

1236
01:01:47,000 --> 01:01:51,400
Speaker 5: I thought about going with Jacksonville, I really did, because

1237
01:01:52,600 --> 01:01:57,040
Speaker 5: I just think the line is egregious. But Urban Meyer,

1238
01:01:57,160 --> 01:01:59,120
Speaker 5: I got it, I got it. I think you need

1239
01:01:59,200 --> 01:02:01,200
Speaker 5: to you need to get to win. The Jaguars went

1240
01:02:01,280 --> 01:02:03,440
Speaker 5: one in sixteen. I don't think the wine is high

1241
01:02:03,520 --> 01:02:05,800
Speaker 5: enough yet for me to go with you on the

1242
01:02:06,040 --> 01:02:08,080
Speaker 5: on the show. So I'm gonna go with a team

1243
01:02:08,160 --> 01:02:09,959
Speaker 5: that I really think has a good chance of winning.

1244
01:02:09,960 --> 01:02:13,440
Speaker 5: It's not as sexy because they're only at plus one

1245
01:02:13,600 --> 01:02:18,440
Speaker 5: ten at the Chicago Bears, but the Cincinnati Bengals. Listen,

1246
01:02:18,560 --> 01:02:20,440
Speaker 5: we saw the Bengals do it at home in Week one,

1247
01:02:21,040 --> 01:02:22,840
Speaker 5: so I don't want to overreact. I think the Bengals

1248
01:02:22,880 --> 01:02:24,560
Speaker 5: still have issues. I think they're still the worst team

1249
01:02:24,600 --> 01:02:25,320
Speaker 5: in that division.

1250
01:02:26,280 --> 01:02:29,960
Speaker 2: The Cincinnati Bengals game roaring back.

1251
01:02:32,360 --> 01:02:35,320
Speaker 5: But I've been low on the Bears all off season.

1252
01:02:35,640 --> 01:02:37,680
Speaker 5: I saw nothing in Week one to make me change

1253
01:02:37,720 --> 01:02:42,080
Speaker 5: my mind. And everyone talks about the Andy Dalton revenge game.

1254
01:02:42,800 --> 01:02:45,800
Speaker 5: This is the Bengals revenge game. This is the Cincinnati

1255
01:02:45,920 --> 01:02:48,360
Speaker 5: revenge game for all the shit Andy Dalt, all the

1256
01:02:48,480 --> 01:02:51,439
Speaker 5: mediocrity that Andy Dalton put him through over all these years,

1257
01:02:51,480 --> 01:02:55,440
Speaker 5: all the mediocrity and below averageness and early playoff exits

1258
01:02:55,520 --> 01:02:59,760
Speaker 5: and not making the playoffs and collapsing under pressure. I

1259
01:02:59,840 --> 01:03:02,040
Speaker 5: think think the Bengals got the better quarterback in this game,

1260
01:03:03,120 --> 01:03:04,640
Speaker 5: and outside of that, and I think these teams are

1261
01:03:04,640 --> 01:03:07,720
Speaker 5: pretty evenly batched. I don't like I probably because I'm

1262
01:03:07,720 --> 01:03:11,080
Speaker 5: lower on the Bears than the market. But you compare

1263
01:03:11,160 --> 01:03:14,160
Speaker 5: these two teams top to bottom, roster to roster, I

1264
01:03:14,240 --> 01:03:16,280
Speaker 5: say it's about a push, and the Bengals have the

1265
01:03:16,320 --> 01:03:19,440
Speaker 5: better quarterback. So give me the Bengals plus one ten.

1266
01:03:20,040 --> 01:03:22,240
Speaker 5: I think they beat the Chicago Bears in Chicago.

1267
01:03:22,640 --> 01:03:24,640
Speaker 2: Let's go back to back, Let's do it.

1268
01:03:25,560 --> 01:03:28,360
Speaker 4: Oh thank you, That's exactly the response I'm looking for.

1269
01:03:28,840 --> 01:03:29,160
Speaker 4: All right.

1270
01:03:29,200 --> 01:03:31,200
Speaker 5: So that wraps it up for our Week two moneyline

1271
01:03:31,280 --> 01:03:33,720
Speaker 5: underdog Parway. It's always nice to be one to zero

1272
01:03:33,760 --> 01:03:36,280
Speaker 5: on the season. Start going with the Eagles plus one

1273
01:03:36,360 --> 01:03:39,240
Speaker 5: thirty five. I'm going with the Bengals plus one ten.

1274
01:03:39,640 --> 01:03:42,280
Speaker 5: Now let's get into the best of the rest, which

1275
01:03:42,320 --> 01:03:45,360
Speaker 5: are the games that we did not hit on in

1276
01:03:45,520 --> 01:03:49,400
Speaker 5: any other segment. All right, let's start with a game

1277
01:03:49,480 --> 01:03:53,880
Speaker 5: we briefly touched on, Cleveland hosting Houston. Cleveland twelve and

1278
01:03:53,920 --> 01:03:57,400
Speaker 5: a half point favorites. The total is forty eight. Any

1279
01:03:57,440 --> 01:03:58,280
Speaker 5: thoughts on this one stuck?

1280
01:03:58,760 --> 01:04:02,120
Speaker 2: Now, I mean, don make it right around here. There's

1281
01:04:02,200 --> 01:04:04,320
Speaker 2: part of me thinks that Cleveland they have a roster

1282
01:04:04,400 --> 01:04:07,720
Speaker 2: that's kind of built to blow out teams. They're bad teams,

1283
01:04:07,720 --> 01:04:10,600
Speaker 2: I should say, because they can run it, and they

1284
01:04:10,680 --> 01:04:13,360
Speaker 2: run it so well that they can just keep piling

1285
01:04:13,440 --> 01:04:15,760
Speaker 2: on points against a really bad team and a really

1286
01:04:15,840 --> 01:04:18,920
Speaker 2: bad defense in Houston that could come crashing back down

1287
01:04:18,960 --> 01:04:21,680
Speaker 2: to earth here. But look, they have a lot of

1288
01:04:21,720 --> 01:04:24,320
Speaker 2: confidence here. They might just throw shit against so much,

1289
01:04:24,520 --> 01:04:27,120
Speaker 2: some trick plays they already want to know Cleveland, after

1290
01:04:27,240 --> 01:04:30,600
Speaker 2: that Kansas City lost, maybe they come out of tat flat.

1291
01:04:30,720 --> 01:04:32,720
Speaker 2: I make it around thirteen. Wouldn't be surprised if the

1292
01:04:32,800 --> 01:04:36,720
Speaker 2: Browns win by thirty. Also, wouldn't be surprised if you

1293
01:04:36,800 --> 01:04:40,160
Speaker 2: know they struggle early and they win by seven to ten.

1294
01:04:41,000 --> 01:04:42,919
Speaker 2: I make the line right around where it is pure

1295
01:04:42,960 --> 01:04:44,680
Speaker 2: pass for me. But Cleveland, if you want to go,

1296
01:04:44,840 --> 01:04:46,920
Speaker 2: Chalky's a state should be a state survivor pick.

1297
01:04:48,680 --> 01:04:55,320
Speaker 5: Yeah, Houston actually played Cleveland ten to seven last year.

1298
01:04:55,400 --> 01:04:56,919
Speaker 5: I think it was a win game where Nick Chubb

1299
01:04:56,960 --> 01:04:58,600
Speaker 5: stepped out, so it probably could have been seventeen.

1300
01:04:59,280 --> 01:05:00,760
Speaker 2: Thank you four and a half.

1301
01:05:01,040 --> 01:05:03,160
Speaker 5: Oh yeah, I think I had plus three and a

1302
01:05:03,160 --> 01:05:06,240
Speaker 5: half so it was even tighter for me. But yeah,

1303
01:05:06,480 --> 01:05:10,600
Speaker 5: that thanks Nick Chubb. But yeah, too big of a line,

1304
01:05:10,680 --> 01:05:14,320
Speaker 5: I think to bet. Cleveland also dealing with some injuries.

1305
01:05:14,320 --> 01:05:16,240
Speaker 5: I mean Odell Beckham was gonna miss a second straight week.

1306
01:05:17,600 --> 01:05:21,200
Speaker 5: Will we had Jidrich Wills. Look, you know he's not

1307
01:05:21,280 --> 01:05:23,200
Speaker 5: practicing Wednesday, but it could be serious. He could be

1308
01:05:23,280 --> 01:05:27,320
Speaker 5: out and then Treder and uh, who is a teller

1309
01:05:27,400 --> 01:05:29,000
Speaker 5: I think or also miss Wednesday practice.

1310
01:05:29,040 --> 01:05:31,600
Speaker 4: That's probably not a big deal, but not ideal.

1311
01:05:31,760 --> 01:05:34,720
Speaker 5: You know, I could definitely see Cleveland kind of taking

1312
01:05:34,840 --> 01:05:37,000
Speaker 5: Houston a little way. Although they are they will be

1313
01:05:37,040 --> 01:05:39,280
Speaker 5: hungry to get that win that they gave away against Case.

1314
01:05:39,520 --> 01:05:43,800
Speaker 4: So I just I just don't want to bet on

1315
01:05:43,920 --> 01:05:45,800
Speaker 4: Cleveland as a twelve and a half point favorite. It's

1316
01:05:45,840 --> 01:05:46,360
Speaker 4: just too much.

1317
01:05:46,520 --> 01:05:51,320
Speaker 5: But I agree survivor pick maybe a tease, but I'd

1318
01:05:51,400 --> 01:05:53,560
Speaker 5: rather just wait and see on Houston since they did

1319
01:05:53,680 --> 01:05:57,240
Speaker 5: outperform expectations in week one and just kind of stay

1320
01:05:57,240 --> 01:05:57,960
Speaker 5: away from this one.

1321
01:05:58,720 --> 01:05:59,440
Speaker 4: Let's go to.

1322
01:06:01,160 --> 01:06:08,680
Speaker 5: Buffalo at Miami. The Bills off that upset at home

1323
01:06:08,880 --> 01:06:12,160
Speaker 5: to Pittsburgh, now going on the road, still giving three

1324
01:06:12,360 --> 01:06:16,880
Speaker 5: and the hook here, I mean stuck. Buffalo had a

1325
01:06:16,960 --> 01:06:21,320
Speaker 5: lot of success on offense against Miami, which maybe it's

1326
01:06:21,440 --> 01:06:23,120
Speaker 5: due to the fact that Buffalo can run out you know,

1327
01:06:23,200 --> 01:06:26,080
Speaker 5: those four wide receiver sets, and Miami has two good

1328
01:06:26,120 --> 01:06:28,960
Speaker 5: corners but not four good corners. But some about this

1329
01:06:29,080 --> 01:06:32,600
Speaker 5: Buffalo offense tends to have Miami. But you're still talking

1330
01:06:32,640 --> 01:06:36,720
Speaker 5: about a division divisional home dog getting three and a

1331
01:06:36,720 --> 01:06:38,320
Speaker 5: half a week two. What do you think of this one?

1332
01:06:38,720 --> 01:06:38,880
Speaker 4: Yeah?

1333
01:06:38,920 --> 01:06:42,080
Speaker 2: I mean I took Buffalo last week when these lines

1334
01:06:42,160 --> 01:06:43,480
Speaker 2: first popped, but it was up two and a half.

1335
01:06:43,520 --> 01:06:45,160
Speaker 2: I wouldn't take three and a half. Now, I wouldn't

1336
01:06:45,200 --> 01:06:47,000
Speaker 2: like three and a half. I should say, do you

1337
01:06:47,120 --> 01:06:49,000
Speaker 2: get under a field goal? I like it? I mean again,

1338
01:06:49,240 --> 01:06:51,280
Speaker 2: Miami's turner to luck has to come to an end eventually.

1339
01:06:51,720 --> 01:06:54,360
Speaker 2: They won by one last week because of two fumbles,

1340
01:06:54,400 --> 01:06:57,200
Speaker 2: one which wasn't a fumble. It first did two fumbles

1341
01:06:57,280 --> 01:07:01,120
Speaker 2: on twenty five percent of New England's possessions. Last year,

1342
01:07:01,120 --> 01:07:04,680
Speaker 2: they led the NFL with forcing turnovers on sixteen percent

1343
01:07:04,720 --> 01:07:08,200
Speaker 2: of opponent possessions. Bill's really odd game last week. They

1344
01:07:08,240 --> 01:07:10,080
Speaker 2: were the better team statistical. They had a punt block,

1345
01:07:10,600 --> 01:07:13,240
Speaker 2: but they weren't themselves and part of that was Feliciano

1346
01:07:13,600 --> 01:07:16,560
Speaker 2: and Dulks tackled. Were just really bad. And part of

1347
01:07:16,600 --> 01:07:20,200
Speaker 2: that COVID are they not fit? That remains to be seen.

1348
01:07:20,600 --> 01:07:23,160
Speaker 2: I think you see Zach Boss activated to help with

1349
01:07:23,680 --> 01:07:28,160
Speaker 2: fast blocking and protection this week. But the Bills went

1350
01:07:28,240 --> 01:07:30,320
Speaker 2: man sixty percent of the time as a zone team.

1351
01:07:30,400 --> 01:07:32,920
Speaker 2: Last year, they went four wide all last year. They

1352
01:07:32,960 --> 01:07:37,000
Speaker 2: went they played eleven personnel the entire game. You know,

1353
01:07:37,080 --> 01:07:39,040
Speaker 2: they were number one in the NFL and play action

1354
01:07:39,160 --> 01:07:46,640
Speaker 2: rate last year like eighteen percent Week one, And it's

1355
01:07:47,000 --> 01:07:49,280
Speaker 2: very bizarre some of the things that I saw. Now

1356
01:07:49,280 --> 01:07:50,760
Speaker 2: it's only one game, and they were playing against a

1357
01:07:50,760 --> 01:07:55,080
Speaker 2: really good defensive line that was mauling them. Miami can't

1358
01:07:55,160 --> 01:07:59,200
Speaker 2: do what Pittsburgh did. I think Buffalo bounce is back here,

1359
01:07:59,560 --> 01:08:01,480
Speaker 2: but I can't. You can't. I can't lay over three

1360
01:08:01,480 --> 01:08:03,360
Speaker 2: and a half if you can get under three. I

1361
01:08:03,520 --> 01:08:07,400
Speaker 2: like the spot enough and to play it. Miami still

1362
01:08:07,440 --> 01:08:10,000
Speaker 2: has issues on offense. They didn't really do much last week.

1363
01:08:10,040 --> 01:08:14,040
Speaker 2: They just basically scored. They scored all touchdowns I got.

1364
01:08:14,160 --> 01:08:15,600
Speaker 2: They scored both times I got into the red zone,

1365
01:08:15,600 --> 01:08:18,160
Speaker 2: and they got some fortunate fumbles, one which wasn't a fumble.

1366
01:08:18,960 --> 01:08:21,519
Speaker 2: Defense is going to be good, but you're right. I

1367
01:08:21,560 --> 01:08:25,839
Speaker 2: think Buffalo can spread them out and have some success

1368
01:08:25,920 --> 01:08:28,080
Speaker 2: on offense, and I think you get a good effort

1369
01:08:28,120 --> 01:08:30,080
Speaker 2: from a defense that I'm high on. The defensive looked

1370
01:08:30,080 --> 01:08:34,759
Speaker 2: good last week against Pittsburgh. So I like the Bills,

1371
01:08:34,880 --> 01:08:37,800
Speaker 2: but not laying over three numbers matter.

1372
01:08:38,160 --> 01:08:40,600
Speaker 4: What do you think of the total because like the

1373
01:08:40,840 --> 01:08:42,759
Speaker 4: you know in the past when.

1374
01:08:42,680 --> 01:08:45,000
Speaker 5: Josh Allen wasn't as good, I've targeted.

1375
01:08:45,000 --> 01:08:46,320
Speaker 4: You know the unders.

1376
01:08:46,439 --> 01:08:48,479
Speaker 5: When Buffalo goes on the road, they tend to play

1377
01:08:48,600 --> 01:08:50,640
Speaker 5: really good defense, be schemed, and you do have this,

1378
01:08:51,040 --> 01:08:54,080
Speaker 5: you know week two divisional under trend. Both of these

1379
01:08:54,080 --> 01:08:56,120
Speaker 5: teams kind of underperformed on offense in Week one. Any

1380
01:08:56,160 --> 01:08:58,080
Speaker 5: thoughts on on the total here, I have no idea.

1381
01:08:58,120 --> 01:08:58,639
Speaker 2: I mean, I'm trying.

1382
01:08:58,720 --> 01:08:59,280
Speaker 1: I have the under.

1383
01:08:59,320 --> 01:09:01,880
Speaker 2: I played the under the Eagles under with you, and

1384
01:09:01,960 --> 01:09:06,519
Speaker 2: I played the Raiders under small. I have this about right,

1385
01:09:06,600 --> 01:09:08,479
Speaker 2: But I'm also trying to be cautions unders, trying to

1386
01:09:08,520 --> 01:09:11,959
Speaker 2: get you know, the home crowd impact. Are there any penalties?

1387
01:09:12,000 --> 01:09:15,160
Speaker 2: They're trying to emphasize fourth down aggressiveness, by the way

1388
01:09:15,800 --> 01:09:18,559
Speaker 2: on coin flip decisions where you know, could have win

1389
01:09:18,600 --> 01:09:23,240
Speaker 2: either way one week, but going for it doubled last

1390
01:09:23,240 --> 01:09:25,599
Speaker 2: week compared to last year. So teams are getting even

1391
01:09:25,640 --> 01:09:27,280
Speaker 2: more aggressive for that. So I'm trying to be cautions

1392
01:09:27,320 --> 01:09:29,040
Speaker 2: with totals, don't I don't know. I'm trying to get

1393
01:09:29,040 --> 01:09:30,960
Speaker 2: a feel for what Buffalo is gonna do. The offensive

1394
01:09:30,960 --> 01:09:34,680
Speaker 2: line does scare me a bit, so I don't have

1395
01:09:34,720 --> 01:09:36,320
Speaker 2: a real good feel on the total here.

1396
01:09:37,080 --> 01:09:39,320
Speaker 5: Yeah, it seemed high at first glance, but then I

1397
01:09:39,439 --> 01:09:42,880
Speaker 5: thought back to Buffalo having an offensive success against Miami

1398
01:09:43,000 --> 01:09:45,360
Speaker 5: last year. But then I thought back to Buffalo like

1399
01:09:45,960 --> 01:09:49,479
Speaker 5: essentially stepping on its own feet with its offensive game

1400
01:09:49,520 --> 01:09:51,120
Speaker 5: plan last week. So yeah, I'm probably off of this

1401
01:09:51,560 --> 01:09:54,280
Speaker 5: this game. But it's it's weird because you mentioned they

1402
01:09:54,360 --> 01:09:57,160
Speaker 5: played one one person out pretty much the whole game,

1403
01:09:57,160 --> 01:09:59,280
Speaker 5: which is three wide receivers went back when tight end

1404
01:10:00,479 --> 01:10:03,040
Speaker 5: Gabriel Davis didn't get hurt until what was it like

1405
01:10:03,120 --> 01:10:05,880
Speaker 5: the second third quarter, so it's not like somebody got

1406
01:10:05,960 --> 01:10:08,000
Speaker 5: hurt and they're like, okay, you know, now we got

1407
01:10:08,080 --> 01:10:09,760
Speaker 5: to go to one one personel because they also were

1408
01:10:09,840 --> 01:10:12,000
Speaker 5: using Mackenzie as more of a running back because they

1409
01:10:12,280 --> 01:10:15,000
Speaker 5: deactivated Moss, So I don't know what that was about, if.

1410
01:10:14,920 --> 01:10:15,320
Speaker 4: That was the game.

1411
01:10:15,400 --> 01:10:18,559
Speaker 2: Yeah, and they were playing they played Sanders over him

1412
01:10:18,760 --> 01:10:20,559
Speaker 2: Davis in eleven almost the entire time.

1413
01:10:21,439 --> 01:10:24,560
Speaker 5: Yeah, exactly, So it didn't make like a ton of

1414
01:10:25,040 --> 01:10:27,040
Speaker 5: that was surprising in itself because I think Davis is

1415
01:10:27,160 --> 01:10:29,760
Speaker 5: their second best receiver. Bes we played and pretty much

1416
01:10:29,840 --> 01:10:33,760
Speaker 5: every snap, which was interesting. Just some new things that

1417
01:10:34,600 --> 01:10:36,400
Speaker 5: didn't go exactly as Buffalo plans.

1418
01:10:36,439 --> 01:10:38,160
Speaker 4: So maybe we see them switch it back up to

1419
01:10:38,200 --> 01:10:39,040
Speaker 4: what work last year.

1420
01:10:39,080 --> 01:10:41,000
Speaker 5: But yeah, I think it's got to be a wait

1421
01:10:41,040 --> 01:10:43,280
Speaker 5: and see as a better There's nothing that screams like

1422
01:10:43,520 --> 01:10:46,760
Speaker 5: edge in West. Like you said, Buffalo goes down under

1423
01:10:46,760 --> 01:10:51,599
Speaker 5: a field goal, which probably doesn't happen. Okay, next game,

1424
01:10:52,040 --> 01:10:55,560
Speaker 5: Chargers minus three and a half at home against the

1425
01:10:55,640 --> 01:10:58,839
Speaker 5: Dallas Cowboys total fifty five at bet MGM, the official

1426
01:10:59,160 --> 01:11:00,600
Speaker 5: odds provider of the podcast.

1427
01:11:01,040 --> 01:11:03,599
Speaker 4: I'm not gonna lie. I liked Dallas.

1428
01:11:03,840 --> 01:11:08,000
Speaker 5: That's another team I thought about taking for my money

1429
01:11:08,040 --> 01:11:10,720
Speaker 5: mine dog. And then as we're getting set to record this,

1430
01:11:11,200 --> 01:11:12,640
Speaker 5: you know, DeMarcus Lawrence go.

1431
01:11:13,439 --> 01:11:14,479
Speaker 4: You know, he's the word is.

1432
01:11:14,520 --> 01:11:17,559
Speaker 5: He's gonna be out and definitely and you know defensive

1433
01:11:17,560 --> 01:11:21,400
Speaker 5: players aren't gonna affect the spread too too much. But

1434
01:11:22,280 --> 01:11:23,880
Speaker 5: I look at you know, Dallas and what they did

1435
01:11:23,920 --> 01:11:26,560
Speaker 5: in Week one, and you know they were able to

1436
01:11:26,600 --> 01:11:29,680
Speaker 5: hang with Tampa, which is why you know, consider them

1437
01:11:29,680 --> 01:11:33,360
Speaker 5: against the Chargers here in this spot. But DeMarcus Lawrence

1438
01:11:34,120 --> 01:11:39,400
Speaker 5: on defense got five pressures for the defense. No one

1439
01:11:39,439 --> 01:11:42,320
Speaker 5: else got more than three, so he had almost double

1440
01:11:42,360 --> 01:11:46,120
Speaker 5: pressures of anyone else. He had a team high U

1441
01:11:46,640 --> 01:11:49,040
Speaker 5: ninety one point four defensive grade from.

1442
01:11:49,080 --> 01:11:50,000
Speaker 4: Pro Football Focus.

1443
01:11:50,080 --> 01:11:52,560
Speaker 5: No one else got higher than a seventy four, So

1444
01:11:53,439 --> 01:11:57,760
Speaker 5: I mean, he was just massive on this defense. That's

1445
01:11:57,880 --> 01:12:00,519
Speaker 5: not a real talented defense, not a real great defense

1446
01:12:00,760 --> 01:12:03,439
Speaker 5: that is being coordinated by Dan Quinn, who I mean

1447
01:12:03,479 --> 01:12:05,240
Speaker 5: after seeing him these last few years and then seeing

1448
01:12:05,240 --> 01:12:05,879
Speaker 5: what Raheem.

1449
01:12:05,640 --> 01:12:07,960
Speaker 4: Morris was able to do. In his place.

1450
01:12:08,640 --> 01:12:11,600
Speaker 5: I think there's questions about him. So now I'm just

1451
01:12:11,720 --> 01:12:13,320
Speaker 5: off of it. I mean, there could be a lot

1452
01:12:13,320 --> 01:12:15,200
Speaker 5: of points here in this chance. Maybe the only thing

1453
01:12:15,240 --> 01:12:16,439
Speaker 5: I can say, but what do you think?

1454
01:12:16,800 --> 01:12:19,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, if you got this total early, great, But yeah,

1455
01:12:19,240 --> 01:12:21,680
Speaker 2: I mean Gregory might be out to both defensive ends

1456
01:12:21,720 --> 01:12:24,680
Speaker 2: are out, and it's a Dallas defense. It's if it's

1457
01:12:24,720 --> 01:12:26,200
Speaker 2: gonna be good, it's gonna take some time. Based me,

1458
01:12:26,200 --> 01:12:27,679
Speaker 2: so off, you got to remember they were right there

1459
01:12:28,000 --> 01:12:30,679
Speaker 2: with Tampa. They got three turnovers and they were fluky.

1460
01:12:31,000 --> 01:12:33,560
Speaker 2: There were some fluky turnovers in that game. So but

1461
01:12:33,680 --> 01:12:36,800
Speaker 2: you have to get the Dallas offense looked spectacular. Dak

1462
01:12:37,040 --> 01:12:41,760
Speaker 2: looked fully healthy and phenomenal, and I really like the

1463
01:12:41,800 --> 01:12:44,280
Speaker 2: game plan. The offensive play calling was great. They basically said,

1464
01:12:44,280 --> 01:12:47,080
Speaker 2: you're not going to run against Tampa. Let's you can't,

1465
01:12:47,280 --> 01:12:49,479
Speaker 2: so let's just throw out the entire game. Love that,

1466
01:12:50,120 --> 01:12:53,439
Speaker 2: But now you lose Lyyle Collins. And this is a

1467
01:12:53,560 --> 01:12:55,960
Speaker 2: huge problem last year with their tackles. I mean, he's

1468
01:12:55,960 --> 01:12:58,840
Speaker 2: appealing suspension. He's not playing this week. If you lose

1469
01:12:58,880 --> 01:13:03,120
Speaker 2: your starting right tackle, you lose Michael Gallop. You know,

1470
01:13:03,920 --> 01:13:06,320
Speaker 2: a good reliable clutch receiver. I love him in the

1471
01:13:06,400 --> 01:13:08,560
Speaker 2: clutch late in games, so you know you're missing a

1472
01:13:08,640 --> 01:13:10,080
Speaker 2: lot of these pieces. You do have a couple extra

1473
01:13:10,160 --> 01:13:14,160
Speaker 2: days of prep and rest against a team that played,

1474
01:13:14,240 --> 01:13:15,720
Speaker 2: you know, a West Coast team that played on the

1475
01:13:15,760 --> 01:13:19,400
Speaker 2: East Coast last week. But I made this right, you know,

1476
01:13:19,680 --> 01:13:21,799
Speaker 2: under a field goal, and then with all these injuries

1477
01:13:21,840 --> 01:13:24,320
Speaker 2: and adjustments, it's probably it's going to be right over

1478
01:13:24,439 --> 01:13:28,639
Speaker 2: a field goal. Now the total is has been priced,

1479
01:13:29,439 --> 01:13:31,840
Speaker 2: has been bet up to where I think it should be.

1480
01:13:32,160 --> 01:13:35,680
Speaker 2: This surpassed for me, should be an entertaining game, but

1481
01:13:36,040 --> 01:13:37,799
Speaker 2: I won't be involved from a betting perspective.

1482
01:13:38,800 --> 01:13:41,400
Speaker 5: Yeah, and I'd even be careful with like, like I think,

1483
01:13:41,560 --> 01:13:45,040
Speaker 5: you know, Dak with great considering what the lack of

1484
01:13:45,080 --> 01:13:47,280
Speaker 5: practice time and the fact that he has two separate injuries,

1485
01:13:48,000 --> 01:13:50,360
Speaker 5: and also considering that, you know a lot of guys

1486
01:13:50,400 --> 01:13:52,519
Speaker 5: have been trying to come back from leg injuries and

1487
01:13:52,600 --> 01:13:56,000
Speaker 5: it hasn't gone as fast. But at the same time,

1488
01:13:57,240 --> 01:13:59,400
Speaker 5: he's still averaged six point nine yards per attempt. I mean,

1489
01:13:59,400 --> 01:14:00,920
Speaker 5: he threw fifty eight times, so a lot of people

1490
01:14:00,960 --> 01:14:02,800
Speaker 5: are looking at that and yet another four injer of

1491
01:14:02,880 --> 01:14:04,839
Speaker 5: yard game and they're saying in three touchdowns.

1492
01:14:04,840 --> 01:14:07,200
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, Dak played great. I mean, he played good,

1493
01:14:07,640 --> 01:14:09,559
Speaker 4: but he's still we're contained.

1494
01:14:09,600 --> 01:14:11,200
Speaker 5: And just just speaks to why I like Teas in

1495
01:14:11,240 --> 01:14:15,439
Speaker 5: Tampa Bay against the Falcons, they still held this Cowboys offense.

1496
01:14:15,439 --> 01:14:17,360
Speaker 4: They threw for four inner yards, still under seven yards

1497
01:14:17,400 --> 01:14:17,720
Speaker 4: in the ten.

1498
01:14:17,920 --> 01:14:23,479
Speaker 5: So I like the Cowboys, but if they are not

1499
01:14:23,520 --> 01:14:26,479
Speaker 5: gonna have any semblance of defense to where they can

1500
01:14:26,640 --> 01:14:29,479
Speaker 5: force those kind of turnovers or make Justin Herbert throw

1501
01:14:29,520 --> 01:14:31,679
Speaker 5: the ball, I mean fumble ahead of the end zone.

1502
01:14:33,360 --> 01:14:36,680
Speaker 4: Now, yeah, it's just a pass for me, all right.

1503
01:14:36,800 --> 01:14:41,040
Speaker 4: And then we got to talk about this one a

1504
01:14:41,120 --> 01:14:43,040
Speaker 4: little bit. We'll wrap it up after this.

1505
01:14:43,240 --> 01:14:46,400
Speaker 5: But your Baltimore Ravens coming off a tough Week one

1506
01:14:46,520 --> 01:14:50,400
Speaker 5: loss hosting the Kansas City Chiefs, I guess the way

1507
01:14:50,439 --> 01:14:51,800
Speaker 5: I want to what I want to talk to you

1508
01:14:51,880 --> 01:14:54,960
Speaker 5: about the most, Like, I felt like the market was

1509
01:14:54,960 --> 01:14:57,280
Speaker 5: always too high on the Ravens in these matchups.

1510
01:14:57,439 --> 01:14:59,759
Speaker 4: Now they're all close. Look, the first two were close.

1511
01:14:59,600 --> 01:15:01,719
Speaker 5: Games, right, and then the last one was a blowout,

1512
01:15:02,200 --> 01:15:05,400
Speaker 5: fourteen point game. But I've always been impressed with what

1513
01:15:05,479 --> 01:15:08,439
Speaker 5: the Chiefs have been able to do defensively despite not

1514
01:15:08,560 --> 01:15:11,960
Speaker 5: really having a great defense. Just schematically, I always felt

1515
01:15:12,000 --> 01:15:16,599
Speaker 5: like they played really well against Lamar. They forced him

1516
01:15:16,600 --> 01:15:18,600
Speaker 5: to do things that he didn't want to do, and

1517
01:15:19,160 --> 01:15:22,439
Speaker 5: they had success. Now, I don't like what I saw

1518
01:15:22,479 --> 01:15:23,600
Speaker 5: out of Casey's defens.

1519
01:15:23,360 --> 01:15:25,960
Speaker 4: In Week one. I thought Lamar looked, even though it

1520
01:15:26,040 --> 01:15:27,879
Speaker 4: didn't always show up on the statue.

1521
01:15:27,960 --> 01:15:31,000
Speaker 5: I thought he looked probably the best he's ever had

1522
01:15:31,160 --> 01:15:33,639
Speaker 5: at parts of that Raiders game, and then at others,

1523
01:15:33,800 --> 01:15:35,639
Speaker 5: you know, he turned them all over and that's that's

1524
01:15:35,680 --> 01:15:37,840
Speaker 5: gonna cost you. But so I'm curious to hear how

1525
01:15:37,880 --> 01:15:41,960
Speaker 5: you think this Ravens offense matches up with with Spags

1526
01:15:41,960 --> 01:15:42,880
Speaker 5: and the Chiefs.

1527
01:15:42,960 --> 01:15:46,200
Speaker 2: D Yeah. I mean they've lost the last three years

1528
01:15:46,240 --> 01:15:49,040
Speaker 2: and they've allowed over five hundred yards right around right

1529
01:15:49,120 --> 01:15:52,559
Speaker 2: under five hundred ards per game for the Chiefs to gain.

1530
01:15:52,760 --> 01:15:55,960
Speaker 2: And last I agree, Lamar looked pretty good last week.

1531
01:15:56,000 --> 01:15:59,000
Speaker 2: The problem was the offensive line, I mean, Villa in

1532
01:15:59,040 --> 01:16:01,120
Speaker 2: the way of them moving to right tackle bring him in,

1533
01:16:01,360 --> 01:16:03,479
Speaker 2: Ronnie Stanley coming off an injury, and Ronnie Ston's In

1534
01:16:03,479 --> 01:16:06,280
Speaker 2: All Pro they ranked seventy fifth and seventy ninth in

1535
01:16:06,360 --> 01:16:09,080
Speaker 2: pass blocking out of seventy nine tackles.

1536
01:16:10,800 --> 01:16:11,240
Speaker 4: OH got.

1537
01:16:11,360 --> 01:16:15,080
Speaker 2: In Week one, they were awful. You know, in twenty twenty,

1538
01:16:15,200 --> 01:16:18,880
Speaker 2: they were you know, Stanley was ninety one passing grade

1539
01:16:19,120 --> 01:16:21,600
Speaker 2: on a lay this seventy eight. So that's one of

1540
01:16:21,640 --> 01:16:24,800
Speaker 2: the major problems. The other thing, I don't think that, Look,

1541
01:16:25,080 --> 01:16:26,479
Speaker 2: you have to throw out a lot of what we

1542
01:16:26,560 --> 01:16:28,519
Speaker 2: saw from the Raids, and they were leading seventeen to

1543
01:16:28,560 --> 01:16:30,880
Speaker 2: ten before a fumble with you know, ten minutes ago

1544
01:16:30,960 --> 01:16:33,360
Speaker 2: in the fourth. But they had a lot of you know,

1545
01:16:33,479 --> 01:16:36,240
Speaker 2: Peters went out with an injury, Gus Edwards. This is

1546
01:16:36,320 --> 01:16:38,680
Speaker 2: the week of the game, and you already lost all

1547
01:16:38,760 --> 01:16:41,880
Speaker 2: these backs. So the mesh point was a mess. The

1548
01:16:42,000 --> 01:16:44,720
Speaker 2: offensive line, so they and they went really simple in

1549
01:16:44,760 --> 01:16:47,360
Speaker 2: their play calling. They didn't call them any design lamar runs.

1550
01:16:47,439 --> 01:16:49,640
Speaker 2: They weren't in the pistol a lot. I know that

1551
01:16:49,720 --> 01:16:52,639
Speaker 2: they were experimenting more with under the center runs in camp,

1552
01:16:52,760 --> 01:16:54,559
Speaker 2: but I think that they were like, you know, they

1553
01:16:54,600 --> 01:16:56,439
Speaker 2: didn't have a lot of time to work together, and

1554
01:16:57,479 --> 01:16:59,040
Speaker 2: you know, they knew they had the Chiefs coming up.

1555
01:16:59,320 --> 01:17:01,080
Speaker 2: So I think the off will look a lot better

1556
01:17:01,880 --> 01:17:03,880
Speaker 2: this week. But it is a short week coming back

1557
01:17:03,960 --> 01:17:08,720
Speaker 2: from Vegas. It doesn't help against Andy Reid, who's the

1558
01:17:08,960 --> 01:17:12,519
Speaker 2: most profitable coach against the spread on the road and

1559
01:17:12,600 --> 01:17:15,040
Speaker 2: the Chiefs defense is terrible. They should get Frank Clark back.

1560
01:17:15,080 --> 01:17:18,320
Speaker 2: With Frank Clark's terrible, they should get Honey Badger back,

1561
01:17:18,360 --> 01:17:20,280
Speaker 2: which is big who missed last week. I think they

1562
01:17:20,320 --> 01:17:23,120
Speaker 2: just held him out being cautious. But what has happened

1563
01:17:23,120 --> 01:17:25,519
Speaker 2: in these games is the Ravens have fallen behind. And

1564
01:17:25,960 --> 01:17:27,880
Speaker 2: the Ravens can just line up in this game and

1565
01:17:27,920 --> 01:17:30,519
Speaker 2: they can run it right down the Chief's throat. The

1566
01:17:30,600 --> 01:17:33,000
Speaker 2: problem is are they going to get behind? And the

1567
01:17:33,040 --> 01:17:36,519
Speaker 2: reason always get behind is they blitz. They all out blitz.

1568
01:17:36,600 --> 01:17:39,240
Speaker 2: That's what Martindale does. He did it against Car. The

1569
01:17:39,320 --> 01:17:43,800
Speaker 2: car loves playing against the blitz. Just these all out

1570
01:17:43,920 --> 01:17:47,439
Speaker 2: cover zero blitzes. Everyone is coming, leave the corners on islands.

1571
01:17:47,920 --> 01:17:52,400
Speaker 2: Patrick Mahomes eats up blitzes with his eyes closed and

1572
01:17:52,600 --> 01:17:53,120
Speaker 2: for fun.

1573
01:17:53,840 --> 01:17:54,640
Speaker 4: So you can't do that.

1574
01:17:54,720 --> 01:17:57,920
Speaker 2: But the Ravens, do you change your whole identity for

1575
01:17:58,040 --> 01:18:01,640
Speaker 2: this game? I think yes, But in the past they

1576
01:18:01,720 --> 01:18:04,040
Speaker 2: haven't shown that they will do that. It's all all

1577
01:18:04,120 --> 01:18:07,720
Speaker 2: up to them to make the adjustments here. But you know,

1578
01:18:07,800 --> 01:18:09,760
Speaker 2: I think the defense is still a top five unit.

1579
01:18:09,880 --> 01:18:11,960
Speaker 2: It will be fine. Jimmy Smith will see if he

1580
01:18:12,080 --> 01:18:15,519
Speaker 2: comes back, that'll be big, specifically against covering Kelsey. He'll

1581
01:18:15,520 --> 01:18:18,759
Speaker 2: probably leave him on Kelsey the entire game freeze up, Humphrey.

1582
01:18:18,920 --> 01:18:20,720
Speaker 2: But are they gonna blitz all out Blitzer? Are they

1583
01:18:21,200 --> 01:18:23,600
Speaker 2: gonna say We're gonna sit back, which is what you

1584
01:18:23,680 --> 01:18:25,680
Speaker 2: need to do. We've seen the Chargers do it. You

1585
01:18:25,800 --> 01:18:28,960
Speaker 2: need to sit back, let Mahomes work underneath and make

1586
01:18:29,000 --> 01:18:31,200
Speaker 2: them drive the field and then get natural pressure. The

1587
01:18:31,280 --> 01:18:34,040
Speaker 2: problem is the Ravens don't have good edge rush natural

1588
01:18:34,120 --> 01:18:36,280
Speaker 2: edge rush, so you're kind of caught in this catch

1589
01:18:36,360 --> 01:18:39,880
Speaker 2: twenty two of all right, I need all we do

1590
01:18:40,080 --> 01:18:42,479
Speaker 2: is we blitz all the time, all out. But you're

1591
01:18:42,520 --> 01:18:45,120
Speaker 2: playing against Mahomes and the Chief's weapons. He's gonna eat

1592
01:18:45,160 --> 01:18:47,400
Speaker 2: you a lot. So then you said we're gonna sit back,

1593
01:18:47,439 --> 01:18:48,840
Speaker 2: but then we have no one can get pressure and

1594
01:18:48,920 --> 01:18:52,439
Speaker 2: I'm just sits there and you can't guard the Chiefs forever.

1595
01:18:53,080 --> 01:18:56,200
Speaker 2: So what needs to happen here? This is the first

1596
01:18:56,240 --> 01:18:58,560
Speaker 2: time that the Ravens have played the Chiefs, and you know,

1597
01:18:58,640 --> 01:18:59,880
Speaker 2: then two of the game one of them went to

1598
01:19:00,200 --> 01:19:02,559
Speaker 2: time in Kansas City. But they've gotten behind in all

1599
01:19:02,560 --> 01:19:04,160
Speaker 2: of them. But this is the first time they've played

1600
01:19:04,240 --> 01:19:07,640
Speaker 2: Kansas City at home in front of fans, so and

1601
01:19:07,680 --> 01:19:10,400
Speaker 2: they're gonna be desperate. The fans are gonna be raucous

1602
01:19:11,120 --> 01:19:13,920
Speaker 2: Sunday night. They need to come out and get a

1603
01:19:14,000 --> 01:19:16,160
Speaker 2: lead right away. They need to use that energy and

1604
01:19:16,160 --> 01:19:17,880
Speaker 2: they need to go up seven to nothing, get a

1605
01:19:17,920 --> 01:19:20,759
Speaker 2: stop up ten nothing. And the Ravens are front runners,

1606
01:19:20,840 --> 01:19:23,839
Speaker 2: right they they're not good at playing from behind because

1607
01:19:24,080 --> 01:19:26,519
Speaker 2: then they have to throw, and you know it's they

1608
01:19:26,600 --> 01:19:28,640
Speaker 2: need to run the ball, control the clock. Then you

1609
01:19:28,680 --> 01:19:32,680
Speaker 2: can be aggressive on defense. But the Chiefs attack their

1610
01:19:32,720 --> 01:19:36,280
Speaker 2: attacking style and that's that's that's how they've had such success.

1611
01:19:36,400 --> 01:19:39,040
Speaker 2: So but then again, this line I had to play

1612
01:19:39,080 --> 01:19:43,040
Speaker 2: the Ravens. It's a terrible matchup from a defensive perspective,

1613
01:19:43,280 --> 01:19:44,880
Speaker 2: but this line is crazy to look. I mean, this

1614
01:19:45,040 --> 01:19:48,080
Speaker 2: is a pick minus one of the preseason. Uh, you know,

1615
01:19:48,160 --> 01:19:50,080
Speaker 2: after adjusting for some of the injuries and some of

1616
01:19:50,080 --> 01:19:51,640
Speaker 2: the things I'm worried about the Ravens. You know, I

1617
01:19:51,760 --> 01:19:53,880
Speaker 2: make it two two and a half. I got four

1618
01:19:53,960 --> 01:19:56,360
Speaker 2: earlier today. I had to take it. The Chiefs get

1619
01:19:56,400 --> 01:19:59,680
Speaker 2: way behind. You can always take the Chiefs live the

1620
01:19:59,800 --> 01:20:01,800
Speaker 2: chief Andy Reid's always been great against the spread, Mahome

1621
01:20:01,840 --> 01:20:03,559
Speaker 2: has always been great against the said, well, they're two

1622
01:20:03,640 --> 01:20:05,439
Speaker 2: and ten against the spread in their in their past

1623
01:20:05,479 --> 01:20:07,560
Speaker 2: twelve games. This is crazy st that they're oh and

1624
01:20:07,600 --> 01:20:10,800
Speaker 2: eight against the spread the last eight times they've been

1625
01:20:10,880 --> 01:20:13,720
Speaker 2: favored by more than a field goal, yet they've won

1626
01:20:13,800 --> 01:20:16,639
Speaker 2: all eight games. So they're gonna win by a field

1627
01:20:16,680 --> 01:20:18,240
Speaker 2: but they come back and they win by a field goal.

1628
01:20:18,360 --> 01:20:20,439
Speaker 2: Because you can never can count the Chiefs out. But

1629
01:20:20,479 --> 01:20:22,840
Speaker 2: they're literally oh and eight against the spread as a

1630
01:20:22,880 --> 01:20:24,840
Speaker 2: favorite more than a field you know, I think that

1631
01:20:24,960 --> 01:20:26,600
Speaker 2: everyone knows look good the Chiefs are. Everyone wants to

1632
01:20:26,640 --> 01:20:29,560
Speaker 2: bet on Mahomes. You're they're generally over valued by a

1633
01:20:29,640 --> 01:20:32,320
Speaker 2: point or two. You know, was the case in the

1634
01:20:32,400 --> 01:20:35,519
Speaker 2: Browns game until it got bet down right before kick.

1635
01:20:35,720 --> 01:20:37,479
Speaker 2: I had to take the four. And you have to

1636
01:20:37,560 --> 01:20:39,200
Speaker 2: hope is that the Ravens is gonna lead. They should

1637
01:20:39,200 --> 01:20:41,000
Speaker 2: be able to run the ball at well, but if

1638
01:20:41,000 --> 01:20:42,920
Speaker 2: they have to play from behind, we've already seen the

1639
01:20:42,960 --> 01:20:46,759
Speaker 2: pass protection as a little iffy. That's when Spags's defense

1640
01:20:46,800 --> 01:20:49,280
Speaker 2: will excel. So it's a fascinating chess match of who

1641
01:20:49,360 --> 01:20:49,800
Speaker 2: can get off.

1642
01:20:50,320 --> 01:20:52,920
Speaker 5: It has to be a pass for me, just because

1643
01:20:53,160 --> 01:20:56,519
Speaker 5: I'm worried about the Ravens in this spot. I'm I

1644
01:20:56,600 --> 01:20:58,840
Speaker 5: always tend to be higher on the Chiefs and lower

1645
01:20:58,880 --> 01:21:01,479
Speaker 5: on the Ravens in their matchup because I just think

1646
01:21:01,520 --> 01:21:04,160
Speaker 5: the Chiefs know how to scheme on defense against Lamar.

1647
01:21:05,360 --> 01:21:07,679
Speaker 5: It doesn't make me feel any better that the Ravens

1648
01:21:07,720 --> 01:21:10,160
Speaker 5: are up seventeen to seven in a game in the

1649
01:21:10,200 --> 01:21:13,040
Speaker 5: fourth quarter and lost. I know a lot of wonky

1650
01:21:13,120 --> 01:21:17,519
Speaker 5: things happen, but doesn't make me feel any better. And then,

1651
01:21:18,880 --> 01:21:22,840
Speaker 5: like the Chiefs I would need I wouldn't even want

1652
01:21:23,360 --> 01:21:24,600
Speaker 5: the two and a half, even though I think the

1653
01:21:24,680 --> 01:21:26,439
Speaker 5: Chiefs win this game. I wouldn't even want the two

1654
01:21:26,479 --> 01:21:28,280
Speaker 5: and a half because I don't trust Bucker to make

1655
01:21:28,320 --> 01:21:30,960
Speaker 5: extra points. So now you're talking about I would need

1656
01:21:31,040 --> 01:21:32,240
Speaker 5: like a one and a half to come in on

1657
01:21:32,320 --> 01:21:33,920
Speaker 5: the Chiefs, which is not happening.

1658
01:21:35,000 --> 01:21:36,760
Speaker 4: But I'm just not there with the Ravens right now.

1659
01:21:37,479 --> 01:21:39,240
Speaker 5: You know, I wouldn't be surprised if they get it together,

1660
01:21:39,360 --> 01:21:44,880
Speaker 5: But I also don't know, like what is your general

1661
01:21:44,960 --> 01:21:50,640
Speaker 5: thought on like Lamar bounce bounce it back because he

1662
01:21:51,120 --> 01:21:55,960
Speaker 5: had a tough game, but the Ravens are just one

1663
01:21:56,000 --> 01:22:00,799
Speaker 5: and four against the spread after a loss Lamar, Jackson

1664
01:22:00,840 --> 01:22:04,200
Speaker 5: Era and Harbaugh overall against the spread after a loft,

1665
01:22:04,400 --> 01:22:06,080
Speaker 5: you would think, because he's one of the better coaches

1666
01:22:06,120 --> 01:22:08,639
Speaker 5: in the league, you know, one of those good numbers

1667
01:22:08,680 --> 01:22:11,559
Speaker 5: after a loss, like a Zimmer Belichick. He's just twenty

1668
01:22:11,600 --> 01:22:14,560
Speaker 5: and twenty seven against the spread forty three percent in

1669
01:22:14,640 --> 01:22:17,839
Speaker 5: his career. So any thoughts on just how the Ravens

1670
01:22:17,880 --> 01:22:19,559
Speaker 5: have been to bounce back. I know you're more dialed

1671
01:22:19,560 --> 01:22:21,040
Speaker 5: in on them than pretty much any other team.

1672
01:22:22,120 --> 01:22:24,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I don't think there's much to that

1673
01:22:24,360 --> 01:22:26,200
Speaker 2: at all. I mean, they've had streaks where they've had

1674
01:22:26,200 --> 01:22:29,320
Speaker 2: a lot of injuries, which I think of that the

1675
01:22:29,360 --> 01:22:32,200
Speaker 2: market didn't properly account for, specifically in the secondary. So

1676
01:22:32,280 --> 01:22:36,880
Speaker 2: they've had some rough stretches. But and Lamar sample size

1677
01:22:37,000 --> 01:22:40,360
Speaker 2: is just too small, tighty. But I think that he looked,

1678
01:22:41,000 --> 01:22:43,400
Speaker 2: you know, he looked great last week. The question is

1679
01:22:43,520 --> 01:22:46,639
Speaker 2: can he get time and we'll see what the Ravens

1680
01:22:46,680 --> 01:22:48,760
Speaker 2: offense has cooked up. We'll see what Greg Roman had

1681
01:22:48,840 --> 01:22:50,680
Speaker 2: saved for the Chiefs. I assume there's going to be

1682
01:22:50,800 --> 01:22:55,160
Speaker 2: some some nuance and some wrinkles, but they can't fall

1683
01:22:55,240 --> 01:22:57,439
Speaker 2: too far behind otherwise it's lights out again.

1684
01:22:58,000 --> 01:22:59,559
Speaker 4: Dammy Watkins, give him some intel.

1685
01:22:59,680 --> 01:23:02,080
Speaker 2: Maybe Mey Wawkins revenge game.

1686
01:23:02,720 --> 01:23:05,040
Speaker 4: All right, now, let's close it out with our Survivor

1687
01:23:05,080 --> 01:23:10,640
Speaker 4: pick of the week one pick one chance to advance.

1688
01:23:12,439 --> 01:23:13,240
Speaker 1: Survivor.

1689
01:23:14,880 --> 01:23:17,280
Speaker 5: You're going with the Browns, I'm gonna go with the Packers.

1690
01:23:17,439 --> 01:23:19,320
Speaker 5: I'm gonna go with the Packers. Browns would be my

1691
01:23:19,400 --> 01:23:21,680
Speaker 5: second choice, but I looked at the Browns schedule and

1692
01:23:21,720 --> 01:23:25,320
Speaker 5: there's a couple of spots where I would still take

1693
01:23:25,400 --> 01:23:29,200
Speaker 5: them down the road. Whereas the Packers, I mean outside

1694
01:23:29,240 --> 01:23:31,360
Speaker 5: of I think they play a Lions in Week seventeen

1695
01:23:31,960 --> 01:23:33,880
Speaker 5: given what we saw, I don't you know, I mean

1696
01:23:34,000 --> 01:23:36,799
Speaker 5: their top heavy team. You lose Adams, to lose Davante,

1697
01:23:36,880 --> 01:23:39,360
Speaker 5: maybe you run away with the division again. I don't

1698
01:23:39,360 --> 01:23:41,120
Speaker 5: know if that Week seventeen is gonna be in play.

1699
01:23:41,720 --> 01:23:42,120
Speaker 4: I think the.

1700
01:23:42,200 --> 01:23:45,320
Speaker 5: Lions are even probably maybe even worse than the Texans,

1701
01:23:45,360 --> 01:23:48,160
Speaker 5: even though you know Lions put up a fight at

1702
01:23:48,200 --> 01:23:50,360
Speaker 5: the end. So going with the Packers to bounce back

1703
01:23:50,360 --> 01:23:51,760
Speaker 5: because I don't know if I'm gonna want to play

1704
01:23:51,840 --> 01:23:54,720
Speaker 5: him again. Hopefully that works out for both of us

1705
01:23:54,760 --> 01:23:57,000
Speaker 5: and we keep it going and week two would be

1706
01:23:57,040 --> 01:24:00,599
Speaker 5: surprised if we don't. That's gonna do it for the pod.

1707
01:24:01,439 --> 01:24:07,400
Speaker 5: Appreciate everyone for listening. Please do subscribe, rate review the show.

1708
01:24:07,840 --> 01:24:11,400
Speaker 5: We really helps us out. You can catch us on Twitter.

1709
01:24:11,760 --> 01:24:16,360
Speaker 5: Stuck's at Stucky two, I'm at Chris Rabon and you

1710
01:24:16,400 --> 01:24:19,080
Speaker 5: can find us by those same handles in the Action

1711
01:24:19,200 --> 01:24:22,040
Speaker 5: Network app. Stucky's at st U K E Y and

1712
01:24:22,120 --> 01:24:23,960
Speaker 5: then number two, I'm at c h R I s

1713
01:24:24,280 --> 01:24:26,400
Speaker 5: R E Y b O N. You can follow all

1714
01:24:26,400 --> 01:24:28,640
Speaker 5: of our picks, you can track your own bets, all

1715
01:24:28,680 --> 01:24:29,240
Speaker 5: that good stuff.

1716
01:24:29,439 --> 01:24:32,920
Speaker 4: Any Action Network app. That's gonna do it. For Week two.

1717
01:24:33,160 --> 01:24:38,759
Speaker 5: Action Network Podcast presented by bet MGM. Good Luck this weekend,

1718
01:24:39,320 --> 01:24:41,519
Speaker 5: Let's get dish wish money