1 00:00:00,520 --> 00:00:03,520 Speaker 1: Let me begin by once again thanking Chancellor Merkel and 2 00:00:03,600 --> 00:00:07,520 Speaker 1: the people of Bavaria and Germany for their extraordinary hospitality 3 00:00:07,520 --> 00:00:08,560 Speaker 1: here at the G Summit. 4 00:00:08,600 --> 00:00:12,840 Speaker 2: This evening, President Trump will be leaving Washington for southwest France. 5 00:00:12,880 --> 00:00:14,640 Speaker 3: We saw us at the G seven summits in the 6 00:00:14,640 --> 00:00:16,640 Speaker 3: English county of Cornwall. 7 00:00:16,239 --> 00:00:18,640 Speaker 1: Mini hosts this year's summit of the Group of seven 8 00:00:18,720 --> 00:00:20,040 Speaker 1: Wealthy st Economies. 9 00:00:21,160 --> 00:00:24,120 Speaker 4: Every year, the leaders of the Group of Seven nations 10 00:00:24,160 --> 00:00:27,360 Speaker 4: get together to hash out some of the world's biggest problems. 11 00:00:27,640 --> 00:00:30,720 Speaker 4: This year's summit is in Japan and it starts on Friday. 12 00:00:31,000 --> 00:00:33,560 Speaker 4: But after all the talking and picture taking is over 13 00:00:33,720 --> 00:00:37,919 Speaker 4: and everybody flies back home, will anything actually come of it? 14 00:00:44,240 --> 00:00:47,839 Speaker 4: I'm West Kosova today on the Big Take Bloomberg's Rosalind 15 00:00:47,880 --> 00:00:51,560 Speaker 4: Mathieson and Flavia kraus Jackson tell us what to watch 16 00:00:51,600 --> 00:01:00,959 Speaker 4: for at the G seven. Roz Flave certainly covered your 17 00:01:01,000 --> 00:01:04,520 Speaker 4: share of G seven summits and actually, rous can you 18 00:01:04,600 --> 00:01:07,679 Speaker 4: start just by reminding us which countries are in this 19 00:01:07,880 --> 00:01:08,800 Speaker 4: Group of seven? 20 00:01:09,080 --> 00:01:11,280 Speaker 3: Well, the G seven actually used to be the G 21 00:01:11,440 --> 00:01:14,760 Speaker 3: eight until some years ago, of course, when Russia was 22 00:01:14,800 --> 00:01:17,600 Speaker 3: a member. But Russia was kicked out for its actions 23 00:01:17,640 --> 00:01:19,520 Speaker 3: in crimea. 24 00:01:18,720 --> 00:01:21,800 Speaker 1: Russia is mobilizing tens of thousands of troops, and the 25 00:01:21,920 --> 00:01:25,360 Speaker 1: US circling the wagons with other world powers. Once known 26 00:01:25,440 --> 00:01:27,640 Speaker 1: as the Group of Eight, but now known as the 27 00:01:27,680 --> 00:01:31,680 Speaker 1: Group of Seven G seven because Russia has been exiled. 28 00:01:31,400 --> 00:01:33,479 Speaker 3: So now it's the Group of Seven, which is really 29 00:01:33,520 --> 00:01:37,840 Speaker 3: a bunch of more advanced industrialized economies. So you've got 30 00:01:37,880 --> 00:01:41,839 Speaker 3: obviously the US in there, Japan is the only Asia member, 31 00:01:42,000 --> 00:01:45,240 Speaker 3: and then you've got a bunch of European countries Italy, France, 32 00:01:45,720 --> 00:01:49,120 Speaker 3: Germany and the UK and really sort of is kind 33 00:01:49,120 --> 00:01:51,760 Speaker 3: of a G eight again because the European Union is 34 00:01:52,320 --> 00:01:54,880 Speaker 3: part of the meetings. They come along, their leadership comes 35 00:01:54,920 --> 00:01:57,640 Speaker 3: and has those conversations, So in a way it's sort 36 00:01:57,640 --> 00:01:59,720 Speaker 3: of a pseudo G eight really if you include the 37 00:01:59,760 --> 00:02:00,960 Speaker 3: up Union in there. 38 00:02:01,760 --> 00:02:05,880 Speaker 4: And this year the meeting is in Japan in Hiroshima. 39 00:02:05,960 --> 00:02:10,320 Speaker 3: It's really evocative for Japan to host this summit in Hiroshima. 40 00:02:10,360 --> 00:02:13,720 Speaker 3: Of course, for Japan the dying days of World War II, 41 00:02:13,880 --> 00:02:16,800 Speaker 3: two nuclear weapons dropped on it to end the war, 42 00:02:17,000 --> 00:02:20,480 Speaker 3: and of course since then for Japan the nuclear question 43 00:02:20,560 --> 00:02:23,400 Speaker 3: has been really fundamental. You've got a country that has 44 00:02:23,400 --> 00:02:27,120 Speaker 3: a pacifist constitution that it's army. Really it's called self 45 00:02:27,160 --> 00:02:30,480 Speaker 3: defense force for a reason, and very much a deep 46 00:02:30,520 --> 00:02:33,040 Speaker 3: sense in Japan if we can't do this again. And 47 00:02:33,120 --> 00:02:36,480 Speaker 3: so for Japan, hosting it in Hiroshima is meaningful because 48 00:02:36,720 --> 00:02:40,040 Speaker 3: they're looking around saying, hang on, the nuclear architecture that 49 00:02:40,120 --> 00:02:44,280 Speaker 3: we knew is fading. There's no monitoring systems in place anymore. 50 00:02:44,600 --> 00:02:48,680 Speaker 3: The Russian president has threatened to use nuclear weapons on Ukraine. 51 00:02:49,120 --> 00:02:52,639 Speaker 3: Our knee neighbor, North Korea is building their nuclear arsenal 52 00:02:52,840 --> 00:02:55,720 Speaker 3: by the day. South Korea is talking about whether they 53 00:02:55,760 --> 00:02:59,120 Speaker 3: should get nuclear weapons at some point to defend against 54 00:02:59,120 --> 00:03:02,840 Speaker 3: North Korea. We've got Japan sitting there saying we remember 55 00:03:02,880 --> 00:03:05,440 Speaker 3: what happened to us at the end of World War 56 00:03:05,480 --> 00:03:08,320 Speaker 3: II and we know what it's like. And hosting it 57 00:03:08,400 --> 00:03:11,119 Speaker 3: Hiroshima the backtop of some of those buildings that were 58 00:03:11,160 --> 00:03:14,760 Speaker 3: destroyed and are still there and having leaders meet there 59 00:03:14,880 --> 00:03:17,160 Speaker 3: is a really really symbolic message for Japan. 60 00:03:17,639 --> 00:03:21,200 Speaker 4: Flavia When was the G seven started and how did 61 00:03:21,200 --> 00:03:23,239 Speaker 4: they decide who is going to be in it? 62 00:03:23,240 --> 00:03:26,160 Speaker 2: It came together in nineteen seventy three, when there's the 63 00:03:26,200 --> 00:03:27,040 Speaker 2: oil shop. 64 00:03:27,040 --> 00:03:30,200 Speaker 5: The oil producing countries of the Arab world decided to 65 00:03:30,320 --> 00:03:33,520 Speaker 5: use their oil as a political weapon. They will reduce 66 00:03:33,600 --> 00:03:37,120 Speaker 5: oil production by five percent a month until the Israelis 67 00:03:37,160 --> 00:03:39,240 Speaker 5: withdrawal from occupied territories. 68 00:03:40,000 --> 00:03:42,680 Speaker 2: And it was actually the French who kind of said, listen, 69 00:03:42,680 --> 00:03:44,400 Speaker 2: we need to kind of get together and work out 70 00:03:44,400 --> 00:03:46,960 Speaker 2: collectively what to do. And at the time, these countries 71 00:03:47,000 --> 00:03:50,560 Speaker 2: represented the riches, the most powerful, and part of the 72 00:03:50,600 --> 00:03:53,680 Speaker 2: reason also, but obviously about bringing places like Germany and 73 00:03:53,880 --> 00:03:57,240 Speaker 2: Italy and Japan into the tent is because they had 74 00:03:57,280 --> 00:03:59,800 Speaker 2: suffered so much of the ravages of World War Two. 75 00:03:59,800 --> 00:04:01,840 Speaker 2: But they're also on the recipient of a lot of money. 76 00:04:02,160 --> 00:04:05,360 Speaker 2: To a great extent, Germany, Italy and Japan boomed after 77 00:04:05,520 --> 00:04:07,880 Speaker 2: World War Two. They didn't have develop their own armies. 78 00:04:07,880 --> 00:04:09,760 Speaker 2: That was sort of part of the condition as well, 79 00:04:09,840 --> 00:04:12,440 Speaker 2: you know, certainly for Germany and for Japan. And actually 80 00:04:12,440 --> 00:04:14,760 Speaker 2: the sort of the technically the winners, places like the 81 00:04:14,880 --> 00:04:18,320 Speaker 2: UK and France suffered the ravagers of the economy in 82 00:04:18,360 --> 00:04:21,400 Speaker 2: the nineteen seventies. The UK suffered the humiliation of having 83 00:04:21,400 --> 00:04:23,800 Speaker 2: to go to the International Monetary Fund and ask for 84 00:04:23,839 --> 00:04:27,119 Speaker 2: some money. When it all came together, you can really 85 00:04:27,160 --> 00:04:30,039 Speaker 2: sort of see all the big players from World War Two, 86 00:04:30,600 --> 00:04:33,039 Speaker 2: both the winners and the losers, and how they came 87 00:04:33,080 --> 00:04:35,880 Speaker 2: together in this post World War II reality. And then 88 00:04:35,880 --> 00:04:39,080 Speaker 2: what's particularly fascinating, of course, you've got the oil crisis 89 00:04:39,080 --> 00:04:41,839 Speaker 2: that brought it all to ahead. And then to Rossi's 90 00:04:41,880 --> 00:04:44,680 Speaker 2: point is when Russia came in, and that was in 91 00:04:44,720 --> 00:04:48,440 Speaker 2: the late nineteen nineties, nineteen ninety eight with Yelson, it's 92 00:04:48,560 --> 00:04:51,440 Speaker 2: almost impossible to imagine that time, but at the time 93 00:04:51,680 --> 00:04:54,000 Speaker 2: he had even been considering of joining the European Union. 94 00:04:54,040 --> 00:04:55,960 Speaker 2: And look at where we are now. So the G 95 00:04:56,120 --> 00:04:59,960 Speaker 2: seven really reflects some pretty seismic changes that the world 96 00:05:00,160 --> 00:05:03,200 Speaker 2: has undergone, both in terms of its geopolitics, it's shifting 97 00:05:03,240 --> 00:05:05,880 Speaker 2: power structure, and its economic prowess. 98 00:05:06,760 --> 00:05:09,800 Speaker 4: There are a lot of issues on the table for 99 00:05:09,960 --> 00:05:13,520 Speaker 4: this summit, even more than we've seen in the past. 100 00:05:13,839 --> 00:05:16,720 Speaker 3: Well, that's right, and there are fundamentally two big issues 101 00:05:16,720 --> 00:05:18,480 Speaker 3: that are on the table and neither of them are 102 00:05:18,520 --> 00:05:21,560 Speaker 3: at the summit, and that's Russia and China. And so 103 00:05:21,680 --> 00:05:25,160 Speaker 3: you've still got the fallout of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. 104 00:05:25,640 --> 00:05:28,400 Speaker 3: You've got questions of how the Group of Seven and 105 00:05:28,440 --> 00:05:31,440 Speaker 3: its affiliates will be there also how they can deal 106 00:05:31,920 --> 00:05:35,160 Speaker 3: with that in terms of trying to constrain Russia's economy 107 00:05:35,440 --> 00:05:38,240 Speaker 3: to the point that it might change Vladimir Putin's actions. 108 00:05:38,240 --> 00:05:40,960 Speaker 3: On the ground, You've got the reality of the actions 109 00:05:41,000 --> 00:05:44,480 Speaker 3: taken so far to penalize this economy not really having 110 00:05:44,560 --> 00:05:47,279 Speaker 3: the kind of effect they probably wanted, and so a 111 00:05:47,320 --> 00:05:50,719 Speaker 3: lot of conversations on the ground about sort of closing 112 00:05:50,760 --> 00:05:54,279 Speaker 3: those loopholes on sanctions, possibly a near total ban on 113 00:05:54,400 --> 00:05:58,200 Speaker 3: exports to Russia. So what's worked so far to try 114 00:05:58,240 --> 00:06:01,680 Speaker 3: and contain Russia, what hasn't, what else can be done? 115 00:06:02,040 --> 00:06:04,760 Speaker 3: And then there's sort of the fundamental question of Russia 116 00:06:05,120 --> 00:06:08,000 Speaker 3: in the rest of the world. We've seen Vladimir Putin 117 00:06:08,520 --> 00:06:12,080 Speaker 3: working to build relationships with countries outside the G seven, 118 00:06:12,640 --> 00:06:16,000 Speaker 3: So how does the G seven counteract that. That's going 119 00:06:16,040 --> 00:06:18,480 Speaker 3: to be a big topic at the summit. And then 120 00:06:18,520 --> 00:06:21,520 Speaker 3: the other question again is China, which is also not there, 121 00:06:21,560 --> 00:06:25,000 Speaker 3: but really these two big powers who are outside the 122 00:06:25,120 --> 00:06:27,560 Speaker 3: orbit of the G seven, and how did the G 123 00:06:27,680 --> 00:06:30,800 Speaker 3: seven member states deal with both of them, including the 124 00:06:30,800 --> 00:06:35,200 Speaker 3: increasing economic and strategic influence of China around the world. 125 00:06:35,520 --> 00:06:37,839 Speaker 3: So there's sort of two big topics on the table 126 00:06:38,200 --> 00:06:39,960 Speaker 3: and a lot of questions about how on earth the 127 00:06:40,000 --> 00:06:43,000 Speaker 3: G seven can manage within a world where you've got 128 00:06:43,000 --> 00:06:44,240 Speaker 3: those powers operating. 129 00:06:44,760 --> 00:06:47,280 Speaker 2: It's like almost what matters the most is what they 130 00:06:47,320 --> 00:06:50,200 Speaker 2: don't talk about, what they talk behind closed doors. You're 131 00:06:50,200 --> 00:06:52,000 Speaker 2: not going to expect Taiwan to be mentioned that that 132 00:06:52,160 --> 00:06:56,840 Speaker 2: is such a divisive, toxic issue, and so increasingly what 133 00:06:56,880 --> 00:07:00,720 Speaker 2: these summits are are about the optics, what kind of 134 00:07:00,920 --> 00:07:04,160 Speaker 2: conversations are happening behind closed doors. Like a really good 135 00:07:04,160 --> 00:07:07,039 Speaker 2: example that Roz and I lived through was in Cornwall 136 00:07:07,200 --> 00:07:10,120 Speaker 2: back in twenty twenty one. The G seven leaders hadn't 137 00:07:10,120 --> 00:07:12,480 Speaker 2: seen each other in a while, COVID had happened, and 138 00:07:12,520 --> 00:07:14,520 Speaker 2: this is a chance for all of them to get 139 00:07:14,560 --> 00:07:16,960 Speaker 2: back together in a very evocative location, which was in 140 00:07:17,000 --> 00:07:20,000 Speaker 2: a beach in Cornwall. Now, at the time there was 141 00:07:20,040 --> 00:07:22,800 Speaker 2: a lot of headlines spent on this rather silly row 142 00:07:22,880 --> 00:07:27,160 Speaker 2: over sausages and Brexit that consumed France and the UK, 143 00:07:27,280 --> 00:07:30,360 Speaker 2: and Manuel Macron and Boris Johnson were not particularly friends 144 00:07:30,840 --> 00:07:33,760 Speaker 2: and this sort of rather silly row kind of spilled 145 00:07:33,760 --> 00:07:36,960 Speaker 2: out in public. But something rather more important was happening 146 00:07:37,000 --> 00:07:40,880 Speaker 2: behind closed doors. Boris Johnson had invited the Australian leader 147 00:07:41,360 --> 00:07:45,120 Speaker 2: and what had happened had been that Biden and Johnson 148 00:07:45,200 --> 00:07:47,960 Speaker 2: and Morrison had come together to make a secret deal 149 00:07:48,200 --> 00:07:52,280 Speaker 2: about developing nuclear submarines, and this happened without Macron having 150 00:07:52,360 --> 00:07:55,720 Speaker 2: any idea. Of course, this was humiliating for Macron because 151 00:07:55,760 --> 00:07:58,160 Speaker 2: he thought he had his own deal with Scott Morrison, 152 00:07:58,200 --> 00:07:59,520 Speaker 2: the Prime Minister of Australia. 153 00:08:00,520 --> 00:08:03,960 Speaker 4: Ras you mentioned Russia and China are two big issues. 154 00:08:04,040 --> 00:08:07,520 Speaker 4: What are the sorts of conversations that will be happening 155 00:08:07,920 --> 00:08:09,960 Speaker 4: behind the scenes, out of the line of state. 156 00:08:10,560 --> 00:08:14,000 Speaker 3: Well, the interesting conversations that the G seven in Japan 157 00:08:14,160 --> 00:08:17,200 Speaker 3: may be the ones between G seven member states and 158 00:08:17,280 --> 00:08:20,480 Speaker 3: the non G seven member states who are there because, 159 00:08:20,520 --> 00:08:22,680 Speaker 3: of course, as is the way with these summits, the 160 00:08:22,760 --> 00:08:25,320 Speaker 3: leaders get to invite a bunch of other countries, and 161 00:08:25,440 --> 00:08:28,520 Speaker 3: Japan has invited a clutch of countries that you think 162 00:08:28,560 --> 00:08:30,680 Speaker 3: of from the global South, or they like to call 163 00:08:30,720 --> 00:08:35,520 Speaker 3: them now sort of middle country. So you've got Vietnam, India, Brazil, 164 00:08:36,000 --> 00:08:40,319 Speaker 3: the African Union representing the entirety of Africa and so on, 165 00:08:40,400 --> 00:08:42,280 Speaker 3: and so you're going to have lots of conversations with 166 00:08:42,360 --> 00:08:45,600 Speaker 3: those leaders behind the scenes, which is about trying to 167 00:08:45,640 --> 00:08:48,400 Speaker 3: get them more in line with the G seven on 168 00:08:48,440 --> 00:08:52,200 Speaker 3: issues surrounding both Russia and China. What these countries get 169 00:08:52,200 --> 00:08:56,040 Speaker 3: pulled in by is the ability to trade, do investment, 170 00:08:56,280 --> 00:09:00,200 Speaker 3: and get money from China and Russia. And so you 171 00:09:00,200 --> 00:09:02,680 Speaker 3: have the G seven countries trying to get in there 172 00:09:02,679 --> 00:09:05,280 Speaker 3: but struggling, and so what they want to show is tangibly, 173 00:09:05,320 --> 00:09:07,880 Speaker 3: we've got things that we can do with you economically 174 00:09:07,960 --> 00:09:10,800 Speaker 3: to support you in your development. And what they need 175 00:09:10,840 --> 00:09:13,600 Speaker 3: to stop doing, and these middle countries have said this 176 00:09:13,720 --> 00:09:17,040 Speaker 3: clearly is stop lecturing them on values, stop coming at 177 00:09:17,080 --> 00:09:19,839 Speaker 3: them about human rights, coming about them about the state 178 00:09:19,840 --> 00:09:23,120 Speaker 3: of their democracy or not, and simply put money on 179 00:09:23,160 --> 00:09:25,360 Speaker 3: the table. And that's the thing that will help draw 180 00:09:25,400 --> 00:09:29,480 Speaker 3: these countries back away from the orbit of Russia and China. 181 00:09:29,559 --> 00:09:31,760 Speaker 3: So you can imagine lots of promises behind the scenes. 182 00:09:31,800 --> 00:09:35,280 Speaker 3: That's something that tangibly they're looking at doing. And then 183 00:09:35,320 --> 00:09:37,680 Speaker 3: the other interesting thing that will happen away from that 184 00:09:37,760 --> 00:09:40,400 Speaker 3: main conversation is, of course the leaders of South Korea 185 00:09:40,440 --> 00:09:43,360 Speaker 3: and Australia are there and that's sort of part of 186 00:09:43,400 --> 00:09:47,600 Speaker 3: that broadening kind of security alliance involving the US, the UK, 187 00:09:48,280 --> 00:09:51,640 Speaker 3: also India, but Japan and Australia, and a lot of 188 00:09:51,679 --> 00:09:56,160 Speaker 3: conversations again around sort of the safety of nuclear arsenals, 189 00:09:56,320 --> 00:09:59,400 Speaker 3: what to do collectively to try and deal with the 190 00:09:59,440 --> 00:10:02,880 Speaker 3: activity of regimes like North Korea as well as Russia, 191 00:10:03,280 --> 00:10:05,880 Speaker 3: but also other nuclear states that aren't really part of 192 00:10:05,920 --> 00:10:10,120 Speaker 3: the global architecture. I mean, you're talking India, Pakistan, China 193 00:10:10,200 --> 00:10:11,880 Speaker 3: and so on. And so there'll be a lot of 194 00:10:11,920 --> 00:10:16,840 Speaker 3: sideline conversations about military cooperation potentially between those countries, and 195 00:10:16,960 --> 00:10:19,240 Speaker 3: all of that will happen somewhat behind the scenes. 196 00:10:19,520 --> 00:10:22,160 Speaker 2: Yeah, And there's also this sort of uncomfortable feeling that 197 00:10:22,200 --> 00:10:24,160 Speaker 2: the US are going to have to come to terms 198 00:10:24,200 --> 00:10:26,840 Speaker 2: with is that they really have no ability to stop 199 00:10:26,960 --> 00:10:31,000 Speaker 2: countries they consider bad guys from developing nuclear arsenals. 200 00:10:31,760 --> 00:10:35,520 Speaker 4: After the break, Europe's leaders wonder if they can still 201 00:10:35,679 --> 00:10:46,360 Speaker 4: count down the US. All of these things that you're 202 00:10:46,400 --> 00:10:49,120 Speaker 4: talking about here point to something else, which is a 203 00:10:49,160 --> 00:10:52,840 Speaker 4: real change in the US's status in the world. Whereas 204 00:10:52,840 --> 00:10:56,800 Speaker 4: before the US was very clearly the leader of the 205 00:10:56,800 --> 00:10:59,559 Speaker 4: G seven and could kind of lost other countries around 206 00:10:59,600 --> 00:11:02,200 Speaker 4: and this is the way it's going to be now. 207 00:11:02,280 --> 00:11:04,520 Speaker 4: It seems that a lot of the conversation is the 208 00:11:04,640 --> 00:11:09,520 Speaker 4: US asking other countries to please see things their way. 209 00:11:10,040 --> 00:11:12,880 Speaker 3: Well, certainly that's the kind of the fundamental takeaway really 210 00:11:12,920 --> 00:11:16,079 Speaker 3: of the war in Ukraine, whatever happens in that terrible 211 00:11:16,120 --> 00:11:18,760 Speaker 3: conflict on the ground. Beyond that, we are in a 212 00:11:18,800 --> 00:11:23,280 Speaker 3: period of significant change in terms of global power dynamics. 213 00:11:23,400 --> 00:11:26,200 Speaker 3: I mean, where we'll be in five, ten, fifteen, twenty years. 214 00:11:26,240 --> 00:11:29,120 Speaker 3: We could debate that forever and flavy and I will 215 00:11:29,160 --> 00:11:31,080 Speaker 3: no doubt debate that all the time, because we like 216 00:11:31,160 --> 00:11:33,280 Speaker 3: to discuss these things. But what we're seeing is the 217 00:11:33,320 --> 00:11:37,760 Speaker 3: emergence of a multipolar system where the US is still 218 00:11:37,760 --> 00:11:41,400 Speaker 3: a significant power, but perhaps a waning power, and you 219 00:11:41,480 --> 00:11:44,840 Speaker 3: have China rising and bringing other countries into its orbit. 220 00:11:45,320 --> 00:11:48,600 Speaker 3: You have Russia's arguably still a fading power despite the 221 00:11:48,600 --> 00:11:51,680 Speaker 3: war in Ukrainean economically it's very small, but able to 222 00:11:51,760 --> 00:11:55,440 Speaker 3: create mischief in many countries around the world. And certainly 223 00:11:55,559 --> 00:11:58,800 Speaker 3: there's an alliance of sorts between Russia and China at 224 00:11:58,840 --> 00:12:01,000 Speaker 3: the moment, and you've got the US thinking, well, how 225 00:12:01,000 --> 00:12:04,760 Speaker 3: can we retain influence in these places? But even within 226 00:12:05,080 --> 00:12:08,079 Speaker 3: the G seven, the US has had some torturous moments 227 00:12:08,120 --> 00:12:11,199 Speaker 3: with Europe in recent years, and not just under the 228 00:12:11,200 --> 00:12:14,560 Speaker 3: administration of Donald Trump, but also under Joe Biden, who 229 00:12:14,600 --> 00:12:18,120 Speaker 3: is arguably even more of a protectionist than Trump, but 230 00:12:18,240 --> 00:12:20,640 Speaker 3: just sort of in nicer clothing and saying it in 231 00:12:20,760 --> 00:12:24,000 Speaker 3: nicer ways than Donald Trump did. And so you've got 232 00:12:24,000 --> 00:12:27,920 Speaker 3: those fractures potentially also emerging, and you can see that 233 00:12:27,960 --> 00:12:30,040 Speaker 3: in some of the ways that they debate stuff at 234 00:12:30,040 --> 00:12:32,040 Speaker 3: the summit between Europe and the US. 235 00:12:32,720 --> 00:12:37,119 Speaker 2: In terms of examples of that freed relationship transatlantic relationship 236 00:12:37,200 --> 00:12:40,040 Speaker 2: between the US and its partners in Europe, very good 237 00:12:40,120 --> 00:12:43,040 Speaker 2: recent example is a Manuel Macron who went to Beijing 238 00:12:43,640 --> 00:12:47,959 Speaker 2: to see Shujingping of China and essentially sort of volunteered 239 00:12:48,000 --> 00:12:51,560 Speaker 2: that China should take a central role in negotiating a 240 00:12:51,600 --> 00:12:54,559 Speaker 2: piece in Ukraine. And that's really not a call that 241 00:12:54,679 --> 00:12:57,360 Speaker 2: one would expect Macron to make or have your dacity 242 00:12:57,440 --> 00:12:59,240 Speaker 2: to do so. Now, on the one hand, you have 243 00:12:59,800 --> 00:13:02,640 Speaker 2: a leader with a tremendous ego, but it's also pretty 244 00:13:02,640 --> 00:13:06,559 Speaker 2: indicative of how several leaders really don't feel like they 245 00:13:06,600 --> 00:13:09,200 Speaker 2: need to kiss the hand or the ring anymore. 246 00:13:09,679 --> 00:13:09,800 Speaker 5: So. 247 00:13:09,840 --> 00:13:13,040 Speaker 2: In Italy you have a new leader, Jarja Milauney, who 248 00:13:13,160 --> 00:13:15,480 Speaker 2: is also trying to carve her own path in terms 249 00:13:15,480 --> 00:13:18,760 Speaker 2: of how to manage that relationship. Do you have to 250 00:13:18,840 --> 00:13:21,679 Speaker 2: pick sides? So you have to pick between us and China, 251 00:13:21,720 --> 00:13:25,280 Speaker 2: And in so doing, what are the economic costs? And 252 00:13:25,320 --> 00:13:27,640 Speaker 2: in Germany, of course, you have Olive Schultz, who is 253 00:13:27,760 --> 00:13:30,840 Speaker 2: very much in the shadow of his predecessor, Angela Merkel, 254 00:13:31,200 --> 00:13:35,679 Speaker 2: who had such an overarching, huge reputation, but whose reputation 255 00:13:36,000 --> 00:13:39,720 Speaker 2: has recently been tarnished over her own relationship with Kutin. 256 00:13:39,960 --> 00:13:43,760 Speaker 2: And it's unclear how history will treat Merkle, whether she 257 00:13:43,840 --> 00:13:46,760 Speaker 2: will be seen as someone who kind of kept Vladimir 258 00:13:46,760 --> 00:13:50,240 Speaker 2: Putin at bay, or whether she was someone who essentially 259 00:13:50,280 --> 00:13:53,760 Speaker 2: appeased him. So these are the questions that keep coming 260 00:13:53,840 --> 00:13:57,400 Speaker 2: back over and over just in terms of this global South. 261 00:13:57,600 --> 00:14:01,200 Speaker 2: A very good example is the new president in Brazil, Lula, 262 00:14:01,360 --> 00:14:04,160 Speaker 2: who of course was president before and has come back 263 00:14:04,280 --> 00:14:08,560 Speaker 2: and his second incarnation as president has made absolutely crystal 264 00:14:08,600 --> 00:14:11,760 Speaker 2: clear that he has no intention of picking sides. And 265 00:14:12,040 --> 00:14:14,760 Speaker 2: Latin America is a very good example of a region 266 00:14:14,800 --> 00:14:18,800 Speaker 2: that was originally seen as America's backyard, but increasingly now 267 00:14:18,880 --> 00:14:22,080 Speaker 2: is perhaps being seen as China's backyard. And you see 268 00:14:22,080 --> 00:14:25,520 Speaker 2: that very much reflected in the trade figures China will 269 00:14:25,520 --> 00:14:27,840 Speaker 2: soon eclipse the US in terms of the biggest trade 270 00:14:27,840 --> 00:14:28,840 Speaker 2: partner in the region. 271 00:14:29,840 --> 00:14:32,520 Speaker 3: The one thing on that also is that it didn't 272 00:14:32,560 --> 00:14:36,520 Speaker 3: start with Joe Biden. He's obviously dealing with these fundamental 273 00:14:36,520 --> 00:14:39,600 Speaker 3: shifts that we're seeing. But Flavia made this point also, 274 00:14:39,840 --> 00:14:42,320 Speaker 3: is that if you look back through decades, you're talking 275 00:14:42,360 --> 00:14:45,680 Speaker 3: about decades where the US just didn't see Africa as important, 276 00:14:46,240 --> 00:14:48,760 Speaker 3: and didn't see parts of North Africa, perhaps in the 277 00:14:48,760 --> 00:14:52,120 Speaker 3: Middle East as important, didn't see parts of Eastern Europe 278 00:14:52,120 --> 00:14:55,440 Speaker 3: as important, certainly regarded Latin America as its backyard, but 279 00:14:55,480 --> 00:14:58,600 Speaker 3: equally didn't invest a lot in there. And so now 280 00:14:58,760 --> 00:15:01,640 Speaker 3: is turning around saying, hey, we're here, we're present, we 281 00:15:01,680 --> 00:15:03,160 Speaker 3: want to be involved, we want to hear you, we 282 00:15:03,200 --> 00:15:05,360 Speaker 3: want to talk to you, and these countries saying, well, 283 00:15:05,360 --> 00:15:08,640 Speaker 3: where have you been all this time? And so you 284 00:15:08,720 --> 00:15:12,080 Speaker 3: really do see those countries. It's not so much that 285 00:15:12,200 --> 00:15:14,760 Speaker 3: they're resisting the US, but they're saying the US, you 286 00:15:15,000 --> 00:15:18,000 Speaker 3: were never here, and now you're trying to get our 287 00:15:18,040 --> 00:15:20,160 Speaker 3: attention because you can see the way the world is 288 00:15:20,160 --> 00:15:22,720 Speaker 3: shifting and you want us on board with you. But 289 00:15:22,760 --> 00:15:24,920 Speaker 3: it's a bit too late, and so you see a 290 00:15:24,920 --> 00:15:28,320 Speaker 3: parade of US officials going through Africa recently, for example, 291 00:15:28,920 --> 00:15:31,560 Speaker 3: None of that really seemed to get a lot of traction. Again, 292 00:15:31,600 --> 00:15:33,960 Speaker 3: the one thing that probably will get their attention is 293 00:15:34,000 --> 00:15:36,800 Speaker 3: simply the idea of greater investment and trade. 294 00:15:37,520 --> 00:15:40,200 Speaker 4: What does the US have to offer at this Group 295 00:15:40,240 --> 00:15:43,920 Speaker 4: of Seven summit and beyond to other countries to say 296 00:15:44,240 --> 00:15:45,880 Speaker 4: you should follow our leadership? 297 00:15:46,280 --> 00:15:48,280 Speaker 2: I would answer the question in terms of what Joe 298 00:15:48,280 --> 00:15:52,080 Speaker 2: Biden specifically can do, And one of the things that 299 00:15:52,120 --> 00:15:55,760 Speaker 2: he promised to do when he defeated Donald Trump back 300 00:15:55,800 --> 00:15:59,040 Speaker 2: in twenty twenty was to say America is back, and 301 00:15:59,280 --> 00:16:02,280 Speaker 2: America's ally have essentially been testing that theory. What does 302 00:16:02,320 --> 00:16:04,680 Speaker 2: it actually mean? Does it mean that you're not going 303 00:16:04,720 --> 00:16:07,760 Speaker 2: to go around saying reckless things like hey, Germany, you 304 00:16:07,800 --> 00:16:10,080 Speaker 2: need to take care of your own military and we're 305 00:16:10,080 --> 00:16:12,800 Speaker 2: going to pull out, or similarly doing the same in Japan, 306 00:16:13,080 --> 00:16:15,880 Speaker 2: Things that send shockwaves through the system of like hold 307 00:16:15,920 --> 00:16:19,120 Speaker 2: on a second, is the US reliable? Can we hold 308 00:16:19,160 --> 00:16:23,320 Speaker 2: it beholden? Two decades long promises? That sense of trust 309 00:16:23,600 --> 00:16:26,320 Speaker 2: I think has been broken. And as much as Joe 310 00:16:26,360 --> 00:16:29,520 Speaker 2: Biden is seen as someone who is honest and decent 311 00:16:30,120 --> 00:16:33,720 Speaker 2: and represents a type of America that I think allies 312 00:16:33,720 --> 00:16:38,000 Speaker 2: are nostalgic for. The reality is that now allies look 313 00:16:38,000 --> 00:16:40,960 Speaker 2: at the US democratic system and see it as pretty broken. 314 00:16:41,240 --> 00:16:44,720 Speaker 2: They are baffled by these elections that go on forever. 315 00:16:45,200 --> 00:16:47,960 Speaker 2: We're eighteen months away from an election, and you have 316 00:16:48,040 --> 00:16:51,200 Speaker 2: all sorts of things that allies say, oh, this is crazy. 317 00:16:51,240 --> 00:16:53,600 Speaker 2: You have Ronda Santis, the Florida governor, who for a 318 00:16:53,640 --> 00:16:56,480 Speaker 2: second we thought might be the Republican nominee, but whose 319 00:16:56,920 --> 00:17:00,200 Speaker 2: star seems to have faded, but coming out and saying, well, well, 320 00:17:00,520 --> 00:17:04,560 Speaker 2: you know, Ukraine is a territorial dispute. People in Ukraine 321 00:17:04,640 --> 00:17:08,000 Speaker 2: and around Ukraine listen to that and think, Okay, what 322 00:17:08,040 --> 00:17:12,000 Speaker 2: this means is that the US is literally not going 323 00:17:12,040 --> 00:17:14,240 Speaker 2: to care about Ukraine in a couple of years, is 324 00:17:14,280 --> 00:17:17,080 Speaker 2: going to be consumed by its own election. And all 325 00:17:17,119 --> 00:17:20,600 Speaker 2: that Vladimir Putin has to do is essentially play the 326 00:17:20,640 --> 00:17:23,919 Speaker 2: long game and wait. And so I think it's important 327 00:17:23,920 --> 00:17:26,800 Speaker 2: to sort of know that everything that not just the 328 00:17:26,800 --> 00:17:30,760 Speaker 2: President says, but what people in Congress say. And the 329 00:17:31,000 --> 00:17:35,000 Speaker 2: perception is that Congress in Washington has become increasingly radicalized, 330 00:17:35,359 --> 00:17:37,800 Speaker 2: and you see that very much in the debt ceiling debate, 331 00:17:38,240 --> 00:17:41,119 Speaker 2: where there's an assumption by markets and by allies that 332 00:17:41,200 --> 00:17:45,080 Speaker 2: somehow this will resolve itself, as it always has. But 333 00:17:45,160 --> 00:17:48,880 Speaker 2: I think what they're increasingly beginning to see is that 334 00:17:49,040 --> 00:17:51,480 Speaker 2: something has been broken and it's not a question of 335 00:17:51,520 --> 00:17:53,800 Speaker 2: just putting it back together. So in answer to your 336 00:17:53,840 --> 00:17:56,760 Speaker 2: question about what the US can do, I don't think 337 00:17:56,800 --> 00:18:00,000 Speaker 2: it can do very much. I think it can try 338 00:18:00,000 --> 00:18:03,119 Speaker 2: definitely to stop lecturing countries about democracy, and I think 339 00:18:03,200 --> 00:18:06,560 Speaker 2: that's to a certain degree stopped that It's become very 340 00:18:06,680 --> 00:18:10,720 Speaker 2: very clear also that the US is increasingly sort of 341 00:18:10,800 --> 00:18:14,800 Speaker 2: looking inside itself and is just focused singularly on China 342 00:18:15,160 --> 00:18:20,080 Speaker 2: and things like TikTok and Ai and all those relationships 343 00:18:20,440 --> 00:18:24,200 Speaker 2: have become transactional and subsumed to the degree of are 344 00:18:24,240 --> 00:18:25,119 Speaker 2: you with us or. 345 00:18:25,160 --> 00:18:26,040 Speaker 1: Not with us? 346 00:18:26,760 --> 00:18:30,480 Speaker 4: What the G seven can and can't do about China's 347 00:18:30,520 --> 00:18:42,880 Speaker 4: growing influence When we come back right, as you mentioned earlier, 348 00:18:43,080 --> 00:18:49,000 Speaker 4: China is moving very strongly forward. Xi Jinping is offering 349 00:18:49,160 --> 00:18:52,000 Speaker 4: China and the way it does business as a viable 350 00:18:52,080 --> 00:18:57,240 Speaker 4: alternative to Western style democracy and appealing to other countries 351 00:18:57,320 --> 00:19:00,879 Speaker 4: to go that way. What is the US argument to 352 00:19:00,960 --> 00:19:04,800 Speaker 4: these countries not to move into China's or a bit. 353 00:19:05,200 --> 00:19:09,240 Speaker 3: The argument primarily is that be careful what you get 354 00:19:09,280 --> 00:19:15,040 Speaker 3: into by beware in that getting into, especially financial relationships, 355 00:19:15,119 --> 00:19:19,359 Speaker 3: economic relationships with China always come with a price tag, 356 00:19:19,400 --> 00:19:21,439 Speaker 3: and it may not come for several years later, but 357 00:19:21,480 --> 00:19:25,399 Speaker 3: it probably will come either you'll find yourself owing a 358 00:19:25,440 --> 00:19:28,359 Speaker 3: lot of money to China that China may call in 359 00:19:28,400 --> 00:19:31,760 Speaker 3: at some point when suits or China will want you 360 00:19:31,800 --> 00:19:34,280 Speaker 3: to behave in a certain way. And you see that 361 00:19:34,480 --> 00:19:37,720 Speaker 3: in a variety of other groupings. You see that in Asia, 362 00:19:37,800 --> 00:19:41,840 Speaker 3: which is the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, where countries 363 00:19:41,920 --> 00:19:45,760 Speaker 3: like Cambodia, for example, have often been the block for 364 00:19:46,080 --> 00:19:49,080 Speaker 3: policies that would be critical of China because of the 365 00:19:49,160 --> 00:19:53,160 Speaker 3: economic relationship between Cambodia and China. So China essentially says 366 00:19:53,160 --> 00:19:56,520 Speaker 3: to Campodia, we expect you to block these policies or 367 00:19:56,560 --> 00:20:00,159 Speaker 3: these criticisms of us in that forum, and so the 368 00:20:00,240 --> 00:20:03,720 Speaker 3: chips do tend to come China's way in the end. 369 00:20:03,760 --> 00:20:06,199 Speaker 3: And that's the argument from the US and others is 370 00:20:06,240 --> 00:20:09,240 Speaker 3: that be careful what you get into. The other argument 371 00:20:09,400 --> 00:20:12,360 Speaker 3: is China policy can change on a dime, and we've 372 00:20:12,400 --> 00:20:16,159 Speaker 3: seen that domestically in recent years, there'll be a sudden 373 00:20:16,200 --> 00:20:18,560 Speaker 3: clamp down on a sector out of the blue. There'll 374 00:20:18,560 --> 00:20:22,040 Speaker 3: be sudden restrictions, there'll be a purge of certain companies 375 00:20:22,280 --> 00:20:25,560 Speaker 3: an investment. If you really bound yourself into China in 376 00:20:25,600 --> 00:20:28,159 Speaker 3: that regard, you never know when you might be the 377 00:20:28,200 --> 00:20:30,359 Speaker 3: company they decide to crack down on, or in the 378 00:20:30,400 --> 00:20:33,560 Speaker 3: sector they decide that they're going for, and so it's 379 00:20:33,760 --> 00:20:37,199 Speaker 3: very volatile and uncertain in terms of the reliability of 380 00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:39,360 Speaker 3: your investment in the long term. So those are two 381 00:20:39,400 --> 00:20:43,160 Speaker 3: of the primary arguments that the US, but also European 382 00:20:43,240 --> 00:20:45,080 Speaker 3: nations and other members of what you think of as 383 00:20:45,080 --> 00:20:47,480 Speaker 3: the West, come at when they try to say these 384 00:20:47,520 --> 00:20:50,119 Speaker 3: countries don't get too close into bed with China. 385 00:20:50,800 --> 00:20:53,200 Speaker 4: So a lot of issues on the table, a lot 386 00:20:53,240 --> 00:20:56,400 Speaker 4: to discuss. We've talked about only some of them here. 387 00:20:57,080 --> 00:21:00,119 Speaker 4: Coming out of this summit. What do we expect, What 388 00:21:00,119 --> 00:21:02,280 Speaker 4: results do you think will come of it. 389 00:21:02,720 --> 00:21:05,480 Speaker 3: One of the things where we are expecting, possibly is 390 00:21:05,480 --> 00:21:08,560 Speaker 3: an announcement on a near total bound on exports to Russia. 391 00:21:09,040 --> 00:21:11,639 Speaker 3: So it means that anything that goes into Russia has 392 00:21:11,680 --> 00:21:14,119 Speaker 3: to be given an exemption, and that's a flip of 393 00:21:14,160 --> 00:21:16,639 Speaker 3: what it is now in terms of being able to 394 00:21:16,640 --> 00:21:19,119 Speaker 3: send your goods in from a variety of countries. So 395 00:21:19,160 --> 00:21:21,480 Speaker 3: there's that aspect of it that would involve the G 396 00:21:21,600 --> 00:21:24,600 Speaker 3: seven and the EU. That's one thing we're expecting, possibly 397 00:21:24,640 --> 00:21:26,960 Speaker 3: a crackdown on the diamond trade out of Russia, which 398 00:21:27,000 --> 00:21:30,480 Speaker 3: is quite lucrative for Russia also, And we're looking for 399 00:21:30,520 --> 00:21:33,919 Speaker 3: some kind of language coordination around China. Even if they 400 00:21:33,920 --> 00:21:36,840 Speaker 3: don't mention China by name in their statements, what do 401 00:21:36,920 --> 00:21:40,119 Speaker 3: they do when they talk about economic coercion? That's a 402 00:21:40,160 --> 00:21:42,840 Speaker 3: phrase they're using a lot for China at the moment. 403 00:21:42,920 --> 00:21:45,560 Speaker 3: So is there some kind of joint statement that touches 404 00:21:45,600 --> 00:21:48,000 Speaker 3: on that issue, which is really a signal to China 405 00:21:48,040 --> 00:21:50,240 Speaker 3: that they're going to sort of work together to try 406 00:21:50,280 --> 00:21:53,520 Speaker 3: and manage China in terms of its economic policies. That's 407 00:21:53,520 --> 00:21:56,240 Speaker 3: another thing you could see that may come out of it. 408 00:21:56,280 --> 00:21:58,920 Speaker 3: But they're really on the China side, probably more statements 409 00:21:58,960 --> 00:22:00,920 Speaker 3: of intent versus something tangible. 410 00:22:02,000 --> 00:22:04,399 Speaker 2: And I will say, I'm looking for optics and I 411 00:22:04,440 --> 00:22:07,560 Speaker 2: think it's incredibly important to sort of see how all 412 00:22:07,640 --> 00:22:11,040 Speaker 2: these leaders are relating to each other. Last year in 413 00:22:11,119 --> 00:22:15,359 Speaker 2: the Alps in Germany, Biden wasn't seen very often. There 414 00:22:15,400 --> 00:22:17,720 Speaker 2: were whisperings of like, well what is he doing? Is 415 00:22:17,720 --> 00:22:18,560 Speaker 2: he too tired? 416 00:22:18,840 --> 00:22:19,399 Speaker 3: Is he old? 417 00:22:19,520 --> 00:22:21,760 Speaker 2: You know, the age thing is something that actually keeps 418 00:22:21,800 --> 00:22:25,240 Speaker 2: coming back. It's showing in polls. It's something that allies notice. 419 00:22:25,560 --> 00:22:27,359 Speaker 2: Is Joe Biden going to go and have a bunch 420 00:22:27,359 --> 00:22:30,320 Speaker 2: of bilaterals which is what is expected. Everyone wants to 421 00:22:30,359 --> 00:22:33,280 Speaker 2: meet the US president or not. You know, you're going 422 00:22:33,359 --> 00:22:36,360 Speaker 2: to have Trudeau, who's the leader of Canada, who now 423 00:22:36,400 --> 00:22:38,840 Speaker 2: is the elder statesman, which is you know, an extraordinary 424 00:22:38,840 --> 00:22:40,680 Speaker 2: turn of events, but he's going to be the person 425 00:22:40,760 --> 00:22:43,560 Speaker 2: who have seen the most out of these summits. You 426 00:22:43,560 --> 00:22:45,800 Speaker 2: want to see how Rishi Sunak Whu's are going to 427 00:22:45,840 --> 00:22:48,479 Speaker 2: be making his debut as UK Prime Minister. There's been 428 00:22:48,520 --> 00:22:51,920 Speaker 2: a lot of revolving doors in the UK. How does 429 00:22:51,920 --> 00:22:54,919 Speaker 2: the new UK leader who's trying to steady the ship 430 00:22:55,280 --> 00:22:58,920 Speaker 2: of the UK after the turmoil of the Brexit years, 431 00:22:59,040 --> 00:23:01,600 Speaker 2: how is he going to make his debut on the 432 00:23:01,600 --> 00:23:02,520 Speaker 2: world stage. 433 00:23:03,000 --> 00:23:05,920 Speaker 4: Roz Flavia, thanks so much for coming on the show. 434 00:23:06,400 --> 00:23:09,159 Speaker 4: Thank you, thanks for listening to us. Here at the 435 00:23:09,160 --> 00:23:12,760 Speaker 4: Big Take, It's a daily podcast from Bloomberg and iHeartRadio. 436 00:23:13,000 --> 00:23:17,440 Speaker 4: For more shows from iHeartRadio, visit the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, 437 00:23:17,520 --> 00:23:20,280 Speaker 4: or wherever you listen, and we'd love to hear from you. 438 00:23:20,520 --> 00:23:23,680 Speaker 4: Email us questions or comments to Big Take at Bloomberg 439 00:23:23,760 --> 00:23:27,639 Speaker 4: dot net. The supervising producer of The Big Take is 440 00:23:27,720 --> 00:23:32,800 Speaker 4: Vicky Rgalina. Our senior producer is Catherine Fink. Federica Romanello 441 00:23:32,960 --> 00:23:37,919 Speaker 4: is our producer. Our associate producer is Zenobsidiki Kilde Garcia 442 00:23:38,080 --> 00:23:42,200 Speaker 4: is our engineer. Our original music was composed by Leo Sidrin. 443 00:23:42,800 --> 00:23:45,960 Speaker 4: I'm west Kasova. We'll be back tomorrow with another Big 444 00:23:46,000 --> 00:23:46,200 Speaker 4: Take