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Speaker 1: What's up, guys? How are you welcome into a Friday

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Speaker 1: morning episode of the Daily Juice podcast. My name is

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Speaker 1: Matt Peoltz. You guys can follow me across all of

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Speaker 1: my socials at Sports Talk Matt, and it has been

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Speaker 1: an absolutely brutal week. What I like about these weeks

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Speaker 1: is that it's a great chance to kind of show

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Speaker 1: you guys the ups and the downs. But we are down,

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Speaker 1: and I mean down. One in two oh and three,

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Speaker 1: one and two oh and three. Yesterday the Spurs blew

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Speaker 1: a huge lead. It should have been a one in

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Speaker 1: two day thunder win. Spurs do not. Creighton gets brutalized,

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Speaker 1: UNLV collapsed in the second half. Two bad bets in

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Speaker 1: college basketball. I can't get college It's basketball right to

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Speaker 1: save my life. Right now, you should one hundred percent

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Speaker 1: be faiting these three college basketball bets I'm making today.

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Speaker 1: I have gone I don't know. Well. I'm two and

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Speaker 1: ten this week. That's the record. This week. I went

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Speaker 1: fifteen and eight. Last week. I had five of seven

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Speaker 1: winning days last week. I'm over four this week, and

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Speaker 1: overall I'm seventeen and eighteen over the last two weeks.

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Speaker 1: So that is the swing, right that's the that's the

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Speaker 1: unbelievable wild ride that sports betting is. There's a great

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Speaker 1: article that came out yesterday in the Atlantic that if

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Speaker 1: you want to go read it. It's about a guy

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Speaker 1: who had never bet before. He's a Mormon, but he's

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Speaker 1: a journalist and he's from New England. But he ended

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Speaker 1: up writing about his one year as a sports gambler.

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Speaker 1: He gambled for an entire year, and he lost four

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Speaker 1: thousand dollars gambling betting one hundred dollars a game for

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Speaker 1: an entire year. So when I tell you what we

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Speaker 1: do is hard, I can tell you that what we

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Speaker 1: do is difficult. And there were a lot of things

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Speaker 1: in there, and there's people friends of mine that are

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Speaker 1: in that article and people that I know, and it's

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Speaker 1: a really good read, and it's a nice I think,

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Speaker 1: look into what I do every day. And it was

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Speaker 1: great to send that around to people who I know,

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Speaker 1: you know, people in my life, to be like, hey,

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Speaker 1: here's an example of what the daily juice is. Because

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Speaker 1: this guy got mentally messed up, and you can get

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Speaker 1: really messed up. The highs and the lows of this.

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Speaker 1: I've had to sort of detach myself from both that

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Speaker 1: when I win, I don't care. When I lose, I

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Speaker 1: try not to care, because I mean two and ten

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Speaker 1: is brutal, Like just watching the bank roll go down

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Speaker 1: is not fun. But you built the bank roll up

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Speaker 1: the last week, and you thought, I mean, when you

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Speaker 1: hit fifteen of twenty three bets, you're thinking you're never

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Speaker 1: gonna lose again. And when you hit two of twelve,

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Speaker 1: you think you're never gonna hit another bet. And so

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Speaker 1: that's where bank roll management. You can make money betting.

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Speaker 1: I normally make more money betting conference tournament games than

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Speaker 1: I do the NCAA tournament. I said that on Monday,

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Speaker 1: and yeah, not good. I will tell you here at

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Speaker 1: the top that there are no numbers out for Oklahoma Arkansas,

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Speaker 1: but I think Oklahoma's gonna beat Arkansas today. I said

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Speaker 1: it yesterday. I thought Oklahoma. I actually got a bet, right.

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Speaker 1: I bet Oklahoma yesterday against Texas A and M, and

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Speaker 1: they won the game. They were catching one and a

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Speaker 1: half points. I took that and they end up putting

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Speaker 1: the game outright. I had that, and then I had

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Speaker 1: Oh Tennessee over Auburn. So there are two bubble games

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Speaker 1: yesterday that I did bet personally did not put them

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Speaker 1: on The Daily Juice, but as I was prepping for

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Speaker 1: my other show BBB, I liked those two plays and

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Speaker 1: they both so maybe I've turned the corner. But I

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Speaker 1: don't know how you talk about the Spurs game and

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Speaker 1: say I've turned the corner because I really haven't turned

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Speaker 1: the corner. So just a rough run of it right now.

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Speaker 1: But look at we have a long way. We're down

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Speaker 1: for the year now. I gave back everything that we

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Speaker 1: had won in the month of March. We were up

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Speaker 1: like eight units in the month. In the month of March,

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Speaker 1: I've given that all back, so we're pretty much flat

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Speaker 1: for the month of March. But you know, it is

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Speaker 1: what it is. We just sort of roll with it.

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Speaker 1: And again the numbers for the year are gonna look

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Speaker 1: worse because of the hedge betting we did with the

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Speaker 1: Super Bowl, and that's why we were up twenty five

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Speaker 1: units last year. So people who like to do the accounting,

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Speaker 1: people who like to do tracking, they got to keep

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Speaker 1: you know, if you're gonna save. I was like, oh,

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Speaker 1: Matt's down six units for the year. Well I am,

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Speaker 1: but I'm kind of not. So that's one reason why

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Speaker 1: I can be a little bit more jovial here losing

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Speaker 1: this week and having really bad weeks because we built

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Speaker 1: the bankroll up with the Seahawks another thing, so we

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Speaker 1: can sustain the nuclear winter that I currently am experiencing

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Speaker 1: here for this week. But I do have three bets

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Speaker 1: for you guys. One quick thing at the top and

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Speaker 1: normally BBB the hat I'm wearing. Normally that show is

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Speaker 1: on at one pm Eastern time, but I'm traveling to

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Speaker 1: New Hampshire coming up today on Friday, so that show

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Speaker 1: actually is going to be airing pretty early in the

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Speaker 1: morning in the morning to eleven am Eastern eight o'clock

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Speaker 1: in the morning Pacific time. If you want to come

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Speaker 1: over and watch, we're going to spend a lot of

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Speaker 1: time talking about you, mass is win over Miami and

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Speaker 1: whether or not U Mass keeps Miami out of the

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Speaker 1: NTAA tournament by beating them. Mass is part of the

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Speaker 1: Daily Juice today, so we'll get into that coming up

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Speaker 1: at eleven am on the Bostonian Versus the Book YouTube account.

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Speaker 1: It's at Boston Versus the Book and at Boston Versus

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Speaker 1: the Book on ex Twitter. So if you want to

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Speaker 1: hear some bubble talk and breaking down games from a

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Speaker 1: betting perspective. For today, you can run over and check

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Speaker 1: that out coming up here with me at eleven am

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Speaker 1: Eastern time, and normally that show it's two hours earlier

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Speaker 1: once that show normally airs live on YouTube at Boston

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Speaker 1: versus the book. Okay, I am excited for today because

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Speaker 1: I actually like these bets, but I've liked the other

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Speaker 1: bets too. You guys are always really excited when it

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Speaker 1: comes time to get a hold of this jersey. This

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Speaker 1: Penny Hardaway jersey. We're giving this away thanks to Pristine

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Speaker 1: Auction dot Com. Like, subscribe and comment on this video.

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Speaker 1: If we like what you say, you could very well

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Speaker 1: win an autographed Penny Hardaway Team USA jersey at the

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Speaker 1: end of this month thanks to our friends at Pristine

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Speaker 1: Auction dot Com. I mentioned UMass. Let's start with you,

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Speaker 1: Maass and UMass's game against Toledo coming up here tonight.

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Speaker 1: So this game is going to be one As a

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Speaker 1: UMass graduate like I am, I'm excited to watch it.

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Speaker 1: I think it's going to be fun to see. If

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Speaker 1: you mass, it's a I said nighttime is at two

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Speaker 1: o'clock five o'clock Eastern time. So I guess is at

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Speaker 1: nine five o'clock Eastern time start for UMass and Toledo.

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Speaker 1: The total is one fifty eight and a half. It

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Speaker 1: opened at one fifty nine. It opened at Toledo minus

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Speaker 1: two and a half. It's now Toledo minus three and

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Speaker 1: a half. Here for this game, I think we're gonna

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Speaker 1: see offense here between these two teams. And when you

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Speaker 1: look at the pace of play and how these teams

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Speaker 1: are gonna play, they don't play any defense. Neither one

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Speaker 1: plays any defense. Toledo is two hundred and thirty ninth

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Speaker 1: in defensive efficiency. They're three hundred and twenty first in

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Speaker 1: defensive effective field goal percentage. They're two hundred and fifty

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Speaker 1: fourth and three point defense, and they're three hundred and

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Speaker 1: twenty ninth in two point defense. U Mass equally stinks

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Speaker 1: at defense. They're two hundred and twenty third inefficiency on defense,

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Speaker 1: two hundred and fortieth in defensive effective field goal percentage.

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Speaker 1: They're one hundred and seventeenth in three point defense, which

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Speaker 1: is not awful. But Toledo hits threes. They get only

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Speaker 1: twenty percent on their offense from behind the yark, but

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Speaker 1: they hit thirty six point nine percent of the shots

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Speaker 1: they take from from there. That's twenty ninth best in

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Speaker 1: the country. UMass is three hundred and seventh and two

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Speaker 1: point defense percentage wise just awful. Pace of play. Toledo

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Speaker 1: average possession length is sixtieth in the country. UMass is

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Speaker 1: seventy ninth. These guys like to get up and down.

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Speaker 1: They like to move. U Mass on the year is

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Speaker 1: twenty and eleven to the over. This year Toledo is

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Speaker 1: thirty is seventeen and thirteen to the under. But these

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Speaker 1: teams played back on January twentieth at U Mass eighty

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Speaker 1: four point eighty two, the win for U Mass. They

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Speaker 1: were catching two and a half points and end up

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Speaker 1: going over one sixty three and a half. Now today

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Speaker 1: we have a total of one fifty eight and a half.

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Speaker 1: And maybe it's because it's a neutral court, but I

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Speaker 1: think we see offense here. I think we'll see you

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Speaker 1: Mass already playing on this court. U Mass beating Minamuve

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Speaker 1: Ohio to eighty seven eighty three. That game went over.

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Speaker 1: Their first game against Ohio You or the last game

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Speaker 1: against Tohio You in the regular season went over one

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Speaker 1: fifty six and a half. It was ninety four eighty

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Speaker 1: two for Toledo. They went did they beat Bowling Greens

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Speaker 1: seventy seven seventy six yesterday? That game went over one

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Speaker 1: fifty one and a half. I don't think we see

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Speaker 1: this game fly over, but I do think both these

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Speaker 1: teams have the potential to get this thing into the eighties.

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Speaker 1: I think we're gonna see offense between these two teams.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna we'll go and see these teams run up

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Speaker 1: and down. Here. It's an eighty two to seventy nine

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Speaker 1: win for Toledo over UMAs, which is right where the

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Speaker 1: number is right now. I would love it if UMAs

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Speaker 1: could make a run here to the final of the

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Speaker 1: MAC Tournament. It would be great to see if they

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Speaker 1: could get there after knocking out the number one seed

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Speaker 1: in Miami of Ohio. But I'm gonna go with the offense,

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Speaker 1: and I'm just gonna go ahead and take this game

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Speaker 1: to go over. We're gonna take UMass and go over

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Speaker 1: versus Toledo over one fifty eight and a half for

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Speaker 1: one point one units. Now, the Deal Juice podcast is

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Speaker 1: being brought to you by our friends at hard Rock.

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Speaker 1: your bet, you'll make two hundred bucks for the month

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Speaker 1: for March Madness. Let's talk about Saint Louis, a team

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Speaker 1: that we got involved with a little bit back. I

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Speaker 1: don't know, it's probably a couple of month, a couple

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Speaker 1: of weeks ago. We started watching Saint Louis. So this

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Speaker 1: is a team that is one of the best offensive

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Speaker 1: teams in college basketball. And as people started to kind

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Speaker 1: of figure out and play around with Saint Louis, going like, okay, offensively,

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Speaker 1: this team is tremendous numbers wise, they're the second best

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Speaker 1: effective offense field goal shooting wise in the country. They

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Speaker 1: are the second best three point shooting team in the country.

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Speaker 1: They are the thirteenth best two point shooting team in

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Speaker 1: the country. And now they're playing in Pittsburgh against George

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Speaker 1: Washington here, who defensively is not good. They are one

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Speaker 1: hundred and sixtieth in two point in three point defense,

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Speaker 1: they are two hundred and fifty sixth in two point percentage.

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Speaker 1: They're two hundred and twenty third in effective field goal percentage.

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Speaker 1: If Saint Louis plays the way that Saint Louis is

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Speaker 1: capable of playing, Saint Louis should dominate this game. The

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Speaker 1: number is five and a half. It's five and a

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Speaker 1: half or six or six and a half. There's a

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Speaker 1: little bit different in the market. But I paid a

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Speaker 1: little extra juice to get the minus one to twenty

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Speaker 1: out of it, to get five and a half here,

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Speaker 1: to keep it under six. But Robbie Avilia is a

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Speaker 1: guy nursing a bit of an injury, and that's one

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Speaker 1: reason why people are taking George Washington. But he's been

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Speaker 1: off for a couple of days. He should be good

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Speaker 1: to go here. In this one, and look at I

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Speaker 1: just can't really get my head around George Washington beating

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Speaker 1: Saint Louis. I just think Saint Louis right now, this

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Speaker 1: is going to be a really fun game for SLEW.

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Speaker 1: I think the A ten is right there for them.

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Speaker 1: They were at home this year, they were thirteen and

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Speaker 1: five ats. They weren't great on the road. There were

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Speaker 1: four six and two ats, but overall they were ten

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Speaker 1: seven and one against the number in conference, George Washington

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Speaker 1: was eight and eleven. These teams played back on the

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Speaker 1: twenty seventh of January and it was a three point

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Speaker 1: win for Saint Louis. They were laying ten and a half.

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Speaker 1: They only won by three. So that's maybe one reason

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Speaker 1: why there's a little bit of a you know issue.

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Speaker 1: And look in the first half GW beat Fordham yesterday.

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Speaker 1: They were laying seven and a half, the only one

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Speaker 1: by four. So but they've played on the court, so

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Speaker 1: maybe you say, all right, they've been on this court before,

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Speaker 1: so they're going to be more comfortable early, and that's

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Speaker 1: that's possible. Ken Pom has it as a six point

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Speaker 1: win for Saint Louis. This game will be on the

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Speaker 1: USA Network it's an eleven thirty Eastern time start. I

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Speaker 1: don't think it's that close, to be quite honest, I

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Speaker 1: think Saint Louis wins this game going away. And again

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Speaker 1: I've been ice cold to watch CW go and win

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Speaker 1: this game. But Saint Louis is one of the teams

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Speaker 1: just offensively, they're so good. Defensively, they're really good enough.

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Speaker 1: They mean the third and effective field goal percentage on defense,

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Speaker 1: they're eighth and three point percentage. Defensively they are sixth

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Speaker 1: and two point percentage. I think resting for a couple

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Speaker 1: of days and getting their legs back underneath them after

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Speaker 1: a really grueling and grinding season for them. They did

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Speaker 1: end up losing to George Mason in their last game

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Speaker 1: by twenty nine points, showing a little sign of crack

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Speaker 1: a little bit, cracking a little bit, But I think

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Speaker 1: that they bounce back here and get a big w

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Speaker 1: cover the five and a half points. I'll go ahead

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Speaker 1: and take it. Saint Louis minus five and a half

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Speaker 1: against GW for minus one twenty and finally we go

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Speaker 1: to the SEC where, look, there are two games I

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Speaker 1: have not put in here that I will be involved with.

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Speaker 1: I'm taking Iowa State plus four and a half against Arizona,

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Speaker 1: and I am taking Oklahoma money line to beat Arkansas.

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Speaker 1: Look at I'm not going with five bets when I'm cold,

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Speaker 1: I'm not gonna put five plays in play, but I

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Speaker 1: will have five five plays personally because I am going

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Speaker 1: to watch the SEC tournament. I think Oklahoma right now

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Speaker 1: is playing at an elite level. I think Arkansas is

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Speaker 1: going to run into a buzzsaw here. Oklahoma's got to

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Speaker 1: win the game. They win the game in the tournament,

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Speaker 1: like they're one win away from making the tournament. They

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Speaker 1: beat Arkansas, I think that they're in. And I love

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Speaker 1: Arkansas team, I love Caliparian Company. But I just think

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Speaker 1: right now Oklahoma is playing at an incredible level. They're

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Speaker 1: running through people five six straight wins, six straight covers.

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Speaker 1: They crushed A and M last night. I love Oklahoma,

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Speaker 1: but there's no number up at the moment, so I

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Speaker 1: don't know. It's just taking Oklahoma money line. That's all

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna bet. But now we've got Florida in Kentucky

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Speaker 1: and this is going to be a home game for Kentucky.

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Speaker 1: I mean, this game is being played in Nashville. This

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Speaker 1: is huge two gigantic wins for Kentucky to get to

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Speaker 1: this spot. I think everybody is going to go like, oh,

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Speaker 1: here comes Kentucky. They're going to be I mean when

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Speaker 1: I was there last year. When Kentucky plays, it's ridiculous.

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Speaker 1: They beat Missouri seventy eight seventy two. They beat LSU

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Speaker 1: eighty seven to eighty two. This is the first game

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Speaker 1: of the tournament for Florida. Now, the Gators very well

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Speaker 1: might be the best team in college basketball. I've been

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Speaker 1: high on the Gators. Once I see the draw for

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Speaker 1: the bracket, I will have a future bet on Florida

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Speaker 1: to win it all. Okay, I one percent will get

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Speaker 1: involved with the Gators officially to win it all. I

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Speaker 1: probably will take Duke as well, even though they got

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Speaker 1: a big time scare last night and won the game

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Speaker 1: by one point. But I like Florida. I've liked the

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Speaker 1: defending champs for a while. I like Todd Golden, I

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Speaker 1: like their bigs. This is an eighty three seventy three

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Speaker 1: win according to kempom. The number is eleven eleven and

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Speaker 1: a half for Florida. I do expect Kentucky money to

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Speaker 1: come in. I'm gonna look at the over, the over

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Speaker 1: being one fifty eight and a half, and I know

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Speaker 1: that that total right there only eages up to one

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Speaker 1: fifty six, so kempom is going to an under. However,

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Speaker 1: I just think we're gonna see both these offenses, and

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Speaker 1: I think Kentucky playing two games really benefits them. I

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Speaker 1: think they forced tempo early with Florida and force them

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Speaker 1: into Kentucky's game, which is to run, and I think

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Speaker 1: Kentucky wants to go up and down. Kentucky is thirty

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Speaker 1: fifth in offensive efficiency. They're eighty fifth in effective field

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Speaker 1: goal percentage. There are one hundred and fifty thirty and

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Speaker 1: three point shooting, but they're seventieth in two point shooting.

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Speaker 1: They get half their offense from inside the arc. Florida's

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Speaker 1: defense is great. They're fifth in efficiency and eleventh in

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Speaker 1: effective five go percentage. There's no debating it. They are

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Speaker 1: great in two point defense. But if Kentucky can get

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Speaker 1: Florida to move and get up tempo, Florida will play

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Speaker 1: with you. They'll rush, they'll force you to shoot fast defensively,

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Speaker 1: and that can benefit Kentucky. Turnovers clearly are going to

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Speaker 1: be a big factor here. Neither team defensively forces many turnovers.

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Speaker 1: But I do think we see tempo between these two teams.

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Speaker 1: Florida does not shoot the three very well. They're three

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Speaker 1: hundred and fourteenth and three point shooting, but they're twentieth

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Speaker 1: and two point shooting because of the bigs. They don't

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Speaker 1: hit their free throws. They don't like. That's not great

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Speaker 1: to bet overs here when a team is not hit

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Speaker 1: their free throws. But Florida on the year was ten

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Speaker 1: seven and one to the under again in the conference,

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Speaker 1: but Kentucky was eleven and three to the sorry eleven

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Speaker 1: and nine to the over. In four of the last

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Speaker 1: five games for Kentucky have gone over, including both games

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Speaker 1: here in Nashville have gone over. Now there were one

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Speaker 1: forty eight and a half and one fifth fifty one

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Speaker 1: and a half. But we've got these games in the

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Speaker 1: forte On Valentine's Day when Kentucky played on the road

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Speaker 1: at Florida, the game went over by twenty points. It

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Speaker 1: was one fifty five was the total. It was a

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Speaker 1: ninety two to eighty three final. I'm anticipating something very

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Speaker 1: similar here with an up tempo game in the eighties

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Speaker 1: type of matchup. As we go with offense for both

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Speaker 1: teams here for Kentucky and Florida, So officially, for me

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Speaker 1: going here today, we're going Kentucky Florida over one fifty

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Speaker 1: nine and a half, Saint Louis laying five and a

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Speaker 1: half against George Washington UMass, and Toledo going over one

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Speaker 1: fifty eight and a half. I do like Oklahoma money line,

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Speaker 1: and I do like Iowa State plus four and a

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Speaker 1: half fadom all fade them all, but at some point

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Speaker 1: the coin will flip. At some point we'll get back

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Speaker 1: on the horse, and at some point we'll get back

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Speaker 1: to the winning ways here for us with the Daily

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Speaker 1: Juice podcast, we have time left in the weis to

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Speaker 1: make a dent in this whole. I don't think we'll

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Speaker 1: have a winning week, but we can potentially get ourselves

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Speaker 1: back on the winning ways here. I do like these

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Speaker 1: plays a lot today, but I like all the plays,

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Speaker 1: so let's see what ends up happening. I might have

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Speaker 1: an NBA player prop at some point. If I do,

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Speaker 1: I'll put it on the Discord channel bettingpros dot Com

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Speaker 1: slash chat to go and find it. If I do

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Speaker 1: like an NBA player prop today, but most likely just

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Speaker 1: be a college basketball game. Because I'm traveling, I want

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Speaker 1: to flight at twelve thirty Pacific time back to the

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Speaker 1: East Coast. My name is Matt Parol. You guys in

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Speaker 1: following me across all my socials at sports Doc Matt

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Speaker 1: every morning wherever you guys get your podcasts, it is

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Speaker 1: the Daily Juice