WEBVTT - Beating The Book: The 86th Masters Betting Preview 0:00:03.480 --> 0:00:12.400 Check it on, Man down Man. This is a numbers 0:00:12.440 --> 0:00:16.560 game traditions unlike any other. The annual pre Master's appearance 0:00:16.600 --> 0:00:20.320 by the man who literally wrote the book on Masters analytics. 0:00:20.280 --> 0:00:22.000 You even remember it from a couple of years ago, 0:00:22.079 --> 0:00:24.360 or actually a few years ago. Now called Joe Peters 0:00:24.400 --> 0:00:28.080 Tour Guide presents a twenty nineteen Masters preview, including a 0:00:28.160 --> 0:00:33.360 never before seenen Augusta National Strokes Gained report at that time, 0:00:34.000 --> 0:00:38.960 literally the only guy who dove into the non public domain, 0:00:39.200 --> 0:00:43.440 very proprietary deep dive of analytics there at Augusta's Joe Peter, 0:00:43.520 --> 0:00:45.760 everybody its duty. How are you doing? Man? Great to 0:00:45.800 --> 0:00:49.760 be here, Gil enjoying btbash too? Yeahhaps absolutely it's and 0:00:49.800 --> 0:00:51.600 it's great. It was great to be down here so 0:00:51.640 --> 0:00:53.960 I could come in studio, and I wanted to dress 0:00:54.000 --> 0:00:58.240 an honor of a couple of your esteemed guests. Uh, 0:00:58.240 --> 0:01:00.640 this is in honor the white sweat shirt. That's not 0:01:00.680 --> 0:01:03.680 our Jimmy Icaro. Yeah, it's He always looks great when 0:01:03.720 --> 0:01:07.040 he sits in studio in his white white sweatshirt. And 0:01:07.160 --> 0:01:10.120 who is your guest who? Whenever he comes on, he 0:01:10.160 --> 0:01:13.160 always has an obscure minor league baseball cap for you, 0:01:13.440 --> 0:01:16.160 Dan Besperus, Dan, So I thought, all right, I'm gonna 0:01:16.160 --> 0:01:20.240 wear a hat from an obscure golf club, very very obscure. 0:01:20.280 --> 0:01:24.360 I see a gust the National, the most obscure of 0:01:24.400 --> 0:01:26.959 them all. At the tournament. You may have heard of 0:01:26.959 --> 0:01:28.839 a little club down there and right in the South 0:01:28.880 --> 0:01:31.919 Carolina Georgia border. We we have to start by by saying, 0:01:31.959 --> 0:01:34.640 so Joe is Joe is. I don't know if reeling 0:01:34.760 --> 0:01:37.560 is a little too heavy of a word, but when 0:01:37.560 --> 0:01:41.080 we mentioned the part about it wind expected Friday, so 0:01:41.280 --> 0:01:43.039 round two right now, if you look at the forecast, 0:01:43.080 --> 0:01:45.640 and we all know how forecasts go, but right now, 0:01:45.760 --> 0:01:47.600 the way that it looks is that there will be 0:01:47.680 --> 0:01:50.880 twenty mile per hour winds on Friday. So a little 0:01:50.880 --> 0:01:53.440 part of you died when you heard that. Yeah, it did, 0:01:53.520 --> 0:01:55.840 just to say as a viewer and a fan standpoint, 0:01:55.960 --> 0:01:58.480 because and then you also mentioned it was cooling off 0:01:58.480 --> 0:02:01.200 Saturday and Sunday. Uh, when I watched the Masters. This 0:02:01.280 --> 0:02:03.520 goes back from you know, coming out of a fall 0:02:03.560 --> 0:02:06.240 in the Northeast. When I watched the Masters. That's one 0:02:06.280 --> 0:02:08.480 of the spring Harvinger's I want to see the patrons 0:02:08.480 --> 0:02:11.280 in short pants on Saturday and Sunday. Uh. And if 0:02:11.320 --> 0:02:15.200 there's too much wind, to borrow your phrase, I don't 0:02:15.280 --> 0:02:17.400 want to. I don't want a US Open to break out, 0:02:17.639 --> 0:02:22.120 you know. Yeah, we we need birdie's ambogies, um, And 0:02:22.160 --> 0:02:23.840 we don't want win to take away the birdies on 0:02:23.880 --> 0:02:26.880 the weekend for excitement. So uh, I hope maybe it's 0:02:26.919 --> 0:02:30.720 just a localized Friday thing. Yeah, hopefully, because otherwise that, 0:02:30.880 --> 0:02:33.079 you know, like you said, off air kills the sort 0:02:33.080 --> 0:02:35.320 of distribution of the outcomes and makes for a kind 0:02:35.320 --> 0:02:39.800 of different tournament. Let's begin with we'll get to the 0:02:39.800 --> 0:02:44.440 Tiger question, but let's begin with your something you sent 0:02:44.560 --> 0:02:49.040 me about top course factor adjustments at the Masters. First 0:02:49.080 --> 0:02:51.680 of all, let's explain what that means. Sure, that's so, 0:02:52.000 --> 0:02:56.280 and you alluded to it earlier. Um, the Masters the 0:02:56.400 --> 0:03:00.440 year to year correlation of an individual golfer stroke gained 0:03:00.840 --> 0:03:03.960 from his past to future. So like T minus one 0:03:04.440 --> 0:03:07.639 or T to T plus one, UM is stronger at 0:03:07.639 --> 0:03:11.000 the Masters and than any other course on tour, and 0:03:11.040 --> 0:03:15.080 it's not even close. And and at the other end 0:03:15.080 --> 0:03:17.440 of that range is TPC saw Grass, where there is 0:03:17.520 --> 0:03:21.920 literally nothing about your prior year strokes. Game, explains UM, 0:03:22.000 --> 0:03:25.679 your future years. And so with the Master's it's it's 0:03:25.720 --> 0:03:28.640 really important to understand course factor. And then, as I 0:03:28.680 --> 0:03:31.000 talked about in the book, you really want to you 0:03:31.040 --> 0:03:35.520 want to calculate it correctly. And course factor doesn't just 0:03:35.600 --> 0:03:37.840 mean you play well at Augusta. There's a lot of 0:03:37.880 --> 0:03:42.600 guys that play well at Augusta, UM, because they're great golfers. 0:03:42.600 --> 0:03:45.240 What you want to find our guys who raise their 0:03:45.320 --> 0:03:48.280 game at Augusta. For instance, Tiger has a positive course 0:03:48.320 --> 0:03:51.080 factor at Augusta. Phil has a very high course factor. 0:03:51.360 --> 0:03:55.120 And that's amazing because their baselines coming into Augusta, the 0:03:55.160 --> 0:03:57.800 baseline being how did they perform over that whole year? 0:03:58.360 --> 0:04:01.480 UM is you know, amazing. So and that's why I 0:04:01.480 --> 0:04:03.680 say it's stronger at Augusta than any other. So what 0:04:03.800 --> 0:04:06.320 I have done is I've calculated UH the and I 0:04:06.320 --> 0:04:08.120 think we're gonna have a graphic of the time. There 0:04:08.120 --> 0:04:11.280 we go. Yeah, the top ten course factors at Augusta. 0:04:11.400 --> 0:04:13.880 So these are and this is a minimum twelve rounds played, 0:04:14.160 --> 0:04:17.559 and these are the guys who have UH strokes gained 0:04:17.600 --> 0:04:22.000 essentially over expectation and expectation just being their baseline for 0:04:22.000 --> 0:04:26.000 the year, how they performed at Augusta. And it's an 0:04:26.040 --> 0:04:29.560 interesting list because there are some names you definitely expect 0:04:29.640 --> 0:04:32.320 on there and there are some names that that you 0:04:32.400 --> 0:04:35.160 might not. Um. And it's really the name some of 0:04:35.200 --> 0:04:39.400 the names that are missing that uh that might surprise you. Um. 0:04:39.440 --> 0:04:41.599 But so I don't know if you want to, you know, 0:04:41.720 --> 0:04:43.920 put up the list, are we go? Well, what do 0:04:44.040 --> 0:04:46.039 you start? Before we put it up? We put it up? 0:04:46.040 --> 0:04:49.359 There you go, it's the start at ten and so 0:04:49.480 --> 0:04:52.480 tennis Tony Fenelle. Tony Fenel has been a staple of 0:04:52.520 --> 0:04:55.960 mine in uh predict you know, in my predictions for 0:04:55.960 --> 0:04:58.920 the Masters. You may recall in twenty nineteen I picked 0:04:59.000 --> 0:05:01.919 him to win it, which was a really out there 0:05:02.680 --> 0:05:05.920 call when the book was published in January before the Masters. 0:05:06.040 --> 0:05:08.040 It you know, he didn't win, but it worked out. 0:05:08.960 --> 0:05:10.920 After the third round when he walked off the course 0:05:10.920 --> 0:05:12.960 in the third round, he was he was leading, he 0:05:13.000 --> 0:05:15.640 was guaranteed to be in the final group. At that 0:05:15.680 --> 0:05:19.000 point Mulinary did catch him, uh and was leading going 0:05:19.040 --> 0:05:22.040 into the final round. And and I still feel if 0:05:22.080 --> 0:05:24.599 they hadn't moved up the torny early they had to 0:05:24.600 --> 0:05:27.320 remember if you remember, there was call for rain on Sunday, 0:05:27.520 --> 0:05:30.080 they moved tea times way up by hours. They put 0:05:30.160 --> 0:05:33.039 him in groups of three, and that brought Tiger into 0:05:33.080 --> 0:05:36.960 the final group. And I really feel well, you know, 0:05:37.080 --> 0:05:41.360 I I project that that that hurt Tony Feenelle a 0:05:41.400 --> 0:05:43.600 little bit. He didn't need the pressure of playing next 0:05:43.680 --> 0:05:46.320 to Tiger Um. And when Mulinary dumped his ball on 0:05:46.400 --> 0:05:49.560 twelve and raised creek, I still can't believe Fenel then 0:05:49.600 --> 0:05:52.480 did it as well. MOLTI that was that was the 0:05:52.520 --> 0:05:56.359 turning point of that tournament, because finally Mullinari crack. Mulinari 0:05:56.440 --> 0:05:58.760 looked like he was gonna win the Masters. And then 0:05:58.800 --> 0:06:01.240 in the water and then Phene now in the water. 0:06:01.400 --> 0:06:03.640 Who's a Dean or our mutual friend Dean was telling 0:06:03.680 --> 0:06:08.159 us yesterday was an interesting story about how Kepka had 0:06:08.640 --> 0:06:12.560 had Kepta gone in the water before this was the 0:06:12.600 --> 0:06:14.960 last group, kept the group before dumped it in the water. 0:06:15.080 --> 0:06:17.960 And apparently he and this is part of his plan. 0:06:18.440 --> 0:06:21.400 He shows no emotion, yes, so he didn't toss any 0:06:21.400 --> 0:06:23.000 grass in the air. He didn't like look up at 0:06:23.040 --> 0:06:26.120 the wind like what's up? And you know kept what 0:06:26.240 --> 0:06:29.440 Kepka says is I don't want to give any clues 0:06:30.160 --> 0:06:34.400 to anybody watching as to whether you how the course plays. 0:06:34.480 --> 0:06:37.760 So Mulinari, who was coming up the eleventh at that point, 0:06:38.080 --> 0:06:40.640 wouldn't have been able to tell at a glance of 0:06:40.640 --> 0:06:44.000 of Kepka that anything had gone wrong, and so in 0:06:44.080 --> 0:06:48.880 some weird, vague way, it's almost like he almost assisted 0:06:49.000 --> 0:06:52.760 Tiger if you believe right that Mullinari saw no end, 0:06:52.760 --> 0:06:55.640 there's no no danger. Will Robinson on the horizon right, 0:06:55.680 --> 0:06:58.159 and and then him and female both going in and 0:06:58.160 --> 0:07:01.919 then Tiger to the to the house exactly exactly you 0:07:01.960 --> 0:07:04.640 see Tiger's course factor adjustment. He was number nine. That 0:07:04.880 --> 0:07:08.640 is incredible because of the high level of play that 0:07:08.760 --> 0:07:12.240 Tiger was, you know, has always been at at the Masters. 0:07:12.640 --> 0:07:16.040 And then some names that might surprise you, uh, Corey Connors, 0:07:16.400 --> 0:07:19.560 Russell Henley. That probably has to shock people, but again 0:07:19.840 --> 0:07:24.080 these are golfers who have raise their game at Augusta. 0:07:24.120 --> 0:07:26.040 They may end up I think in the case of 0:07:26.040 --> 0:07:28.840 of Henley and Connors, a couple appearances where they finished 0:07:28.880 --> 0:07:32.840 with seven seven strokes gained or more, um, you know, 0:07:32.880 --> 0:07:36.240 and that's almost averaging two around. That's way above what 0:07:36.280 --> 0:07:38.840 they've they've done on the p g A tour. We'll 0:07:38.880 --> 0:07:43.080 hear those names later coming up Joe's top ten Masters picks, 0:07:43.080 --> 0:07:45.800 and I'm sure there's overlap. Yeah, we'll have some overlap here. 0:07:45.840 --> 0:07:49.080 Interesting number six Justin Rose there, um, I used I 0:07:49.240 --> 0:07:51.440 bar when we spoke last year when I gave my 0:07:51.560 --> 0:07:53.560 top ten list last year, you were doing it from 0:07:53.560 --> 0:07:55.560 the circle pool. I remember, and you may have had 0:07:55.560 --> 0:07:59.200 west On as your your co host. And I borrowed 0:07:59.200 --> 0:08:01.720 one of your herbs that you had used during the 0:08:01.800 --> 0:08:06.280 Nationals playoff run in twenty nineteen, and I said that 0:08:06.600 --> 0:08:09.680 you are compelled to walk into certain at least take 0:08:09.720 --> 0:08:12.000 a twenty or fifty dollar billot and put it on 0:08:12.120 --> 0:08:14.680 Justin Rose, who was like a hundred and forty to 0:08:14.840 --> 0:08:18.600 one last year before teeing off purely because of his 0:08:18.680 --> 0:08:21.200 course factor. And of course he led after round one, 0:08:21.360 --> 0:08:23.640 and he led well into round three last year until 0:08:24.080 --> 0:08:26.360 Hideki I think I was after the rain delay in 0:08:26.480 --> 0:08:29.320 RAM three really took over. But the Nationals word, by 0:08:29.320 --> 0:08:32.800 the way was obligation. Okay, yes, right, you were obligated 0:08:32.840 --> 0:08:34.840 to do that. I do have an obligated for you 0:08:34.920 --> 0:08:36.840 this year too, at the end of this super segment, 0:08:37.000 --> 0:08:40.480 like um, and then you've got you know, Leishman Ram, Hideki, 0:08:41.120 --> 0:08:45.400 Cam Smith and Jordan's speech. Jordan's speech always raises his 0:08:45.440 --> 0:08:48.640 game here, cam Smith number two, didn't he he had 0:08:48.720 --> 0:08:51.679 one all four rounds in the sixties. Yes, I think 0:08:51.679 --> 0:08:54.960 he was the first guy right that didn't win. Right, 0:08:55.000 --> 0:08:57.599 that's right, he did not win. But that was that 0:08:57.760 --> 0:08:59.760 might was that the year Dustin ran away d J. 0:09:00.280 --> 0:09:03.319 That was the Fall Masters where Cameron Smith had four 0:09:03.440 --> 0:09:06.000 rounds in the six season, didn't even come close to DJ, 0:09:06.440 --> 0:09:09.120 come close to there and then Hideki's touch and go 0:09:09.320 --> 0:09:13.000 here right, well, exactly Hideki And this was again Hideki 0:09:13.040 --> 0:09:15.280 has been a staple of my top ten calls. You know, 0:09:15.320 --> 0:09:17.599 I've been calling for sushi at the UH at the 0:09:17.679 --> 0:09:21.320 Champions dinner since twenty nineteen. You know, again, he just 0:09:21.440 --> 0:09:23.880 raises his game here and he's always had a pretty 0:09:23.960 --> 0:09:26.760 high baseline. Anyway, you won't see him on my top 0:09:26.760 --> 0:09:30.000 ten list this year because I have given thanks to 0:09:30.160 --> 0:09:33.320 what I call the Jason Day factor. I have stopped 0:09:33.440 --> 0:09:37.760 trying to handicap injuries because I've been burned with Jason 0:09:37.840 --> 0:09:40.520 Day so many times. I'm not so Hudeki. I've just 0:09:40.640 --> 0:09:42.720 left off. I don't know where his health wise, if 0:09:42.760 --> 0:09:45.000 he's healthy, he has great you know, we saw it 0:09:45.080 --> 0:09:47.680 last year. He finally but last year wasn't the only 0:09:47.760 --> 0:09:49.760 year he'd have been on this list, you know, even 0:09:49.760 --> 0:09:52.480 without last year's But Jordan's speed is number one on 0:09:52.520 --> 0:09:55.320 the top course factor adjustments. That's right now. What's important 0:09:55.320 --> 0:09:59.200 to remember, Gil is that is above the baseline he's 0:09:59.200 --> 0:10:03.040 playing at. Jordan's speed has never had a lower baseline 0:10:03.160 --> 0:10:07.199 than than right now. The last six months are are 0:10:07.360 --> 0:10:12.000 like replacement level. So yeah, you know, he won't be 0:10:12.080 --> 0:10:14.280 on the top ten list. It kind of a just 0:10:14.640 --> 0:10:18.439 miss thing um because I'm still expecting him to play 0:10:18.440 --> 0:10:21.800 above his baseline, but his baseline is lower than it's been, 0:10:21.840 --> 0:10:24.360 so that's why he doesn't crack the top ten. Interesting 0:10:24.559 --> 0:10:27.959 we will find out what Joe's top ten Masters picks 0:10:28.000 --> 0:10:30.719 are for the two Masters which begins Thursday. Will do 0:10:30.760 --> 0:10:34.000 that next. And his thoughts on Tiger specifically coming back 0:10:34.080 --> 0:10:37.600 numbers games these Sports Betting Network we talked about him 0:10:37.679 --> 0:10:40.520 last week. Are you in the camp that it's laughable 0:10:41.040 --> 0:10:44.920 that anyone would make any positive wagers whatsoever on Eldrick 0:10:45.000 --> 0:10:48.120 Tiger Woods or are you in the camp of you 0:10:48.240 --> 0:10:51.000 better not laugh about this? Dude? At this course. Yeah, 0:10:51.040 --> 0:10:52.840 you bet right. Yeah, I don't. And I don't think 0:10:52.920 --> 0:10:55.760 he's going up there for any ceremonial reasons. I think 0:10:55.800 --> 0:10:58.240 he is fully intending to play, and you know, maybe 0:10:58.240 --> 0:11:00.400 it's a game time decision, but he he did in 0:11:00.480 --> 0:11:03.160 fact to use those that phrase and and so yes, 0:11:03.240 --> 0:11:05.880 I believe he will be playing. Uh, you know, you 0:11:05.920 --> 0:11:07.719 cannot count him out. I remember I was very high 0:11:07.760 --> 0:11:09.920 on him in nineteen, had actually picked him third that 0:11:10.000 --> 0:11:13.319 year and ahead of everybody that was favored over him. Um, 0:11:13.320 --> 0:11:16.680 but he had played outstanding golf for the six to 0:11:16.760 --> 0:11:18.960 nine months leading up to last year's Matt to the 0:11:19.000 --> 0:11:21.360 to the nineteen Masters. You know, we don't have any 0:11:21.360 --> 0:11:24.040 baseline like that for this, so I look at the props. 0:11:24.080 --> 0:11:27.880 It's very entertaining. Congratulations to Circa for you know, having 0:11:28.200 --> 0:11:31.640 entertaining bets out there entertaining and this is an entertainment business. 0:11:31.640 --> 0:11:33.520 And we talked about it at betbash er Matt Metcalf 0:11:33.600 --> 0:11:36.400 did where he is like, hey, look it's just fun. Yeah, 0:11:36.480 --> 0:11:38.800 it's fun. Those are fun bet so I'm not touching them. 0:11:38.920 --> 0:11:41.400 I hope that they all win, you know, on the 0:11:41.400 --> 0:11:44.080 bullish side, because we'd love to see Tiger and again 0:11:44.120 --> 0:11:46.160 for those looking at the bottom, there's and make the cutty, Yes, 0:11:46.160 --> 0:11:49.199 it's plus one twenty that's all Again. Remember the Masters 0:11:49.280 --> 0:11:51.840 is like a ninety one field, you know, group field, 0:11:52.000 --> 0:11:55.080 not any one player field. And fifteen of those guys 0:11:55.120 --> 0:11:59.440 are sandy Lyle basically right, So it's right, fifty plus 0:11:59.520 --> 0:12:02.040 ties may the cut, which really means you're gonna probably 0:12:02.080 --> 0:12:05.560 have anywhere from fifty five to sixty sixty one guys 0:12:05.640 --> 0:12:08.280 making the cut. And yeah, so that's only thirty that 0:12:08.360 --> 0:12:13.800 miss and the fifteen of them are ceremonial you know. Okay, um, 0:12:13.840 --> 0:12:15.920 this is the so before we get in your top ten, 0:12:16.480 --> 0:12:20.240 the real development, you haven't remained static with your with 0:12:20.280 --> 0:12:22.920 your master's data to tell us what that. So when 0:12:22.960 --> 0:12:25.920 I wrote the book, the book had twenty eighteen detailed 0:12:25.920 --> 0:12:28.640 stroke gains data strokes gained data for any Masters we 0:12:28.640 --> 0:12:32.160 can get strokes gained total, but the components of it 0:12:32.200 --> 0:12:34.400 were only available in twenty eighteen when I wrote the 0:12:34.400 --> 0:12:40.319 twenty nineteen book. I have then added I also got 0:12:40.360 --> 0:12:43.319 a tip from someone, a reader who said to me, 0:12:43.840 --> 0:12:48.040 would you like access to seventeen and eighteen or sixteen 0:12:48.040 --> 0:12:51.719 and seventeen? I was like, of course, I would. So 0:12:51.800 --> 0:12:54.880 that was another eighty hours of work each tournament, logging 0:12:55.000 --> 0:12:58.280 every shot into But I now have a six year database, 0:12:58.840 --> 0:13:01.840 and after this year be seven and I think for Christmas, 0:13:01.880 --> 0:13:04.440 I'm gonna put together a big book and really dive 0:13:04.480 --> 0:13:06.720 into the details of the seven years of strokes gained. 0:13:07.000 --> 0:13:08.760 But so what we have this year, Gil is we 0:13:08.800 --> 0:13:12.000 do have a new development. Not only do we know 0:13:12.120 --> 0:13:15.280 that you know that strokes gained have the highest correlation 0:13:15.360 --> 0:13:18.000 year to year um at this event, but now I 0:13:18.040 --> 0:13:20.679 can tell you which components are the ones that are 0:13:20.800 --> 0:13:23.080 driving that. And it was a surprise, and I will 0:13:23.120 --> 0:13:26.360 reveal I won't get into the standard deviations or the correlations, 0:13:26.400 --> 0:13:29.880 but the most important thing year over year at the 0:13:29.920 --> 0:13:35.079 Masters is strokes gained off the tea. That is surprisingly 0:13:35.240 --> 0:13:38.880 has a very very high correlation. And I've got some 0:13:38.920 --> 0:13:40.640 great stats on a couple of guys in the top 0:13:40.679 --> 0:13:44.280 ten that we'll get to a number ten ten Masters 0:13:44.280 --> 0:13:46.800 predictions from jail. Yeah, number ten. We just saw his name, 0:13:47.040 --> 0:13:50.800 Corey Corey Connors. Um Corey Connors and this is purely 0:13:50.840 --> 0:13:54.120 based on Corey Connors has played well in his three 0:13:54.200 --> 0:13:57.360 or four other appearances here, but this year he's coming 0:13:57.400 --> 0:13:59.960 in with his highest baseline in the last uh six 0:14:00.120 --> 0:14:02.120 and last twelve months, he's been about a stroke in 0:14:02.120 --> 0:14:05.400 a quarter better than uh uh than you know the 0:14:05.440 --> 0:14:08.880 field in strokes game total. Add to that higher baseline 0:14:08.920 --> 0:14:11.680 with his history here he sneaks into number ten. Number 0:14:11.760 --> 0:14:14.920 nine Isander Shoffley. I don't think people remember how close 0:14:15.000 --> 0:14:18.319 he came to threatening Hideki last year until he dumped 0:14:18.320 --> 0:14:20.600 the ball in the water on sixteen. But if you 0:14:20.760 --> 0:14:23.600 watch that and and this was going over all the strokes, 0:14:23.800 --> 0:14:25.720 he didn't dump the ball in the water on sixteen. 0:14:25.840 --> 0:14:29.960 He came up just short in hitting that you know 0:14:30.040 --> 0:14:33.600 that that area in the back left on sixteen on Sunday, um, 0:14:33.760 --> 0:14:35.520 Now you're probably supposed to hit it onto the hill 0:14:35.560 --> 0:14:37.040 and let it roll down to the right, but he 0:14:37.120 --> 0:14:41.040 was very close. Uh. Number eight is Russell Henley. And 0:14:41.080 --> 0:14:42.920 again this has to be a bit of a shocker. 0:14:43.000 --> 0:14:48.960 This is a very high high odds guy. However, Henley 0:14:49.000 --> 0:14:52.000 played in the Masters in every year from thirteen to 0:14:52.080 --> 0:14:56.600 eighteen except for sixteen, and in those four appearances they're stellar, 0:14:56.800 --> 0:15:01.400 no misscuts uh and way over his base line. Now 0:15:01.560 --> 0:15:04.040 he revamped his game. He's coming in with a higher 0:15:04.040 --> 0:15:07.160 baseline than ever before he liked Connors. Over the last 0:15:07.200 --> 0:15:09.080 twelve months he's about a stroke in a quarter better, 0:15:09.160 --> 0:15:11.200 But over the last six months he's about a stroke 0:15:11.240 --> 0:15:14.160 in three quarters better uh than the than the average 0:15:14.200 --> 0:15:18.240 PJ player. So this is a compelling long shot to me. 0:15:18.440 --> 0:15:20.480 Now maybe you don't want you know, we're gonna throw 0:15:20.520 --> 0:15:22.160 a little bit on the outright, but this might be 0:15:22.200 --> 0:15:26.920 a very top twenty, top ten type interesting that to 0:15:27.000 --> 0:15:29.760 place on Henley UH. Number seven is Patrick can't lay. 0:15:30.000 --> 0:15:32.920 He does not have a good uh of course adjustment 0:15:32.960 --> 0:15:36.160 history here. It's pretty much flat versus his baseline. He 0:15:36.240 --> 0:15:42.560 puts very poorly here, but you cannot ignore how high 0:15:42.760 --> 0:15:45.760 his performance level has been over the last twelve months. 0:15:45.800 --> 0:15:48.160 So I've got him at number seven. It's a probably 0:15:48.200 --> 0:15:51.720 a little bit of a fade based on his actual 0:15:51.800 --> 0:15:55.080 outright odds. So you but you know, you just can't 0:15:55.120 --> 0:15:57.360 discount how well he's played over the last twelve months. 0:15:57.600 --> 0:16:01.480 But despite coming close in nine teen, he really has 0:16:01.480 --> 0:16:03.920 not played here well. And his putting X I say, 0:16:04.000 --> 0:16:05.840 like the components, I can do his round by round 0:16:05.880 --> 0:16:10.600 putting um and it's it's not it's not favorable. Number 0:16:10.600 --> 0:16:13.400 six is DJ DJ when you get into the components. 0:16:13.680 --> 0:16:17.360 This is a surprise. The Dustin Johnson has been uh 0:16:17.400 --> 0:16:21.320 from one year to the next, the best strokes gained 0:16:21.360 --> 0:16:26.040 approach player at the Masters. He has of the of 0:16:26.080 --> 0:16:28.440 all the rounds he has played here, he has the 0:16:28.520 --> 0:16:31.640 highest percentage of anybody who we have strokes gained Detail 0:16:31.680 --> 0:16:35.920 four in terms of positive strokes gained round uh um approach. 0:16:36.040 --> 0:16:39.480 That is, in eighteen rounds he has sixteen or eight 0:16:39.640 --> 0:16:45.200 nine percent um that have been positive strokes gained approach um. 0:16:45.360 --> 0:16:49.520 Number five is Cameron Smith. Cameron Cameron Smith has played 0:16:49.640 --> 0:16:53.160 very well here. Uh. Even before he won the you know, 0:16:53.200 --> 0:16:56.320 before he wanted a TPC Sawgrass. Um. You know, I 0:16:56.400 --> 0:16:59.720 like him here. That obviously shortened his odds. Um. I 0:16:59.840 --> 0:17:02.960 like the top four better. But camp Smith, you know, 0:17:02.960 --> 0:17:04.919 look for him to be a factor. He just puts 0:17:05.000 --> 0:17:07.840 so well here and he's such a great potter. Um. 0:17:08.320 --> 0:17:13.040 So that that's number four, Number five, Number four Scottie Scheffler. UM. 0:17:13.359 --> 0:17:15.919 I wish Scottie Scheffler hadn't won three tournaments in the 0:17:15.960 --> 0:17:19.480 last you know, two and a half months, because those 0:17:19.520 --> 0:17:21.520 were some great odds at the beginning of the year. 0:17:21.560 --> 0:17:23.040 And he, you know, I had it tied up, but 0:17:23.040 --> 0:17:25.320 I don't. I don't try to guess these in the future, 0:17:25.400 --> 0:17:28.000 but I knew was his course factor was great, his 0:17:28.160 --> 0:17:30.520 details on his eight rounds here. He didn't appear on 0:17:30.560 --> 0:17:32.720 the course factor list because he's only played eight rounds 0:17:32.760 --> 0:17:36.240 with only played eight rounds here. But he's just got 0:17:36.280 --> 0:17:40.240 positive readings across the board. Um and obviously he's playing great. 0:17:40.440 --> 0:17:43.280 Uh I you know, I think he's gonna be a 0:17:43.280 --> 0:17:45.920 factor here for a number of years. Number three is 0:17:45.960 --> 0:17:47.879 here a big surprise. We got a guy up around 0:17:47.920 --> 0:17:52.359 fifty two one, and that's Daniel Berger. Yeah, Daniel Berger. 0:17:52.440 --> 0:17:55.639 And this is the shocker I mentioned about off the 0:17:55.800 --> 0:17:58.240 strokes gained off the tea being so important from year 0:17:58.280 --> 0:18:01.560 to year. Daniel Berger has played fourteen rounds here and 0:18:02.640 --> 0:18:04.760 of him, so, I guess that's thirteen thirteen out of 0:18:04.760 --> 0:18:07.840 fourteen rounds have been positive strokes gained off the tea. 0:18:07.960 --> 0:18:11.320 There's only one guy better, and we will get to him, 0:18:11.440 --> 0:18:15.520 um and so. And he puts tremendously here. The weakness 0:18:15.640 --> 0:18:18.240 is the irons, for sure, that's the weakness of his game. 0:18:18.640 --> 0:18:21.080 But he's got a nice baseline coming in. He has 0:18:21.160 --> 0:18:24.000 just displayed such excellence here that I think we can 0:18:24.040 --> 0:18:27.000 put him down for three or four strokes gained off 0:18:27.000 --> 0:18:30.320 the tea, then he's putting well, all right, He's just 0:18:30.400 --> 0:18:32.800 got to get hot iron scoring and I you know, 0:18:32.920 --> 0:18:35.760 price wise, I love it. I can't take him above 0:18:35.760 --> 0:18:39.840 the top two guys because number two is Rory. Um. 0:18:39.920 --> 0:18:41.840 Rory has played better in the last six months than 0:18:41.840 --> 0:18:45.640 people think. You know, he's you know, I think there's 0:18:45.640 --> 0:18:49.760 more narrative hurting him than uh than actual performance. Obviously, 0:18:49.880 --> 0:18:53.040 he has also had some meltdowns and majors. Um. I 0:18:53.080 --> 0:18:55.439 do wonder what goes on in his head. Um, But 0:18:55.880 --> 0:18:58.560 you know, this is Rory off the tea obviously is 0:18:58.560 --> 0:19:01.520 tremendous here as well. But no one, no one is 0:19:01.560 --> 0:19:04.399 better off the tea at Augusta. Think John rom He 0:19:04.480 --> 0:19:07.720 has had twenty rounds here. He has never had a 0:19:07.800 --> 0:19:10.840 negative strokes gained off the tea in those twenty rounds, 0:19:10.880 --> 0:19:13.960 and in fact, his worst was gaining a half stroke 0:19:14.000 --> 0:19:18.560 on the field. It's just incredible. And his putting of 0:19:18.640 --> 0:19:20.320 everybody in the field that we have data on to 0:19:20.840 --> 0:19:25.280 his worst stroke scawn round game putting was negative one 0:19:25.280 --> 0:19:28.239 and third strokes. That's the best of any worst so 0:19:28.359 --> 0:19:30.000 John Ram is my pick to win it. I know 0:19:30.080 --> 0:19:32.679 it's Chalky. I wish it weren't, but there's a reason 0:19:32.800 --> 0:19:36.520 just any any way, you're weighing these different factors. John 0:19:36.600 --> 0:19:38.359 Rom's gonna come out and I haven't play on Rory, 0:19:38.400 --> 0:19:40.200 so I'm happy about that. By the way, here's a tweet. 0:19:40.240 --> 0:19:42.040 Is this one of your college buddies right here? Who 0:19:42.080 --> 0:19:44.640 just sent a picture of you from your from your 0:19:44.680 --> 0:19:48.640 younger days? Joe who said, Gil, he said, uh, I'll 0:19:48.640 --> 0:19:50.920 get the exact quote here from the tweet, but he said, 0:19:50.920 --> 0:19:53.000 a picture of you as a young man. He said, Hey, Gil, 0:19:53.040 --> 0:19:54.760 are you sure you want to trust this s bestimen 0:19:54.800 --> 0:19:57.480 with your hard earned dollars with his master's pick hashtag 0:19:57.880 --> 0:20:01.960 bet profit. It is my understanding those records had been 0:20:01.960 --> 0:20:05.199 sealed forever. That is a picture of man, you know, 0:20:05.200 --> 0:20:07.680 whether it's Billy, Joel or Adele. That's when we were young. 0:20:10.840 --> 0:20:12.800 And now to break down the eighties six the Masters 0:20:12.880 --> 0:20:15.639 at Augusta, which of course begins this Thursday. It's my 0:20:15.880 --> 0:20:19.879 primetime Action partners Matt Brown and Kelly Bitlin as we 0:20:19.920 --> 0:20:23.640 do this from the South Point Studio. Gentlemen, how you doing? 0:20:23.640 --> 0:20:25.879 You're excited you've got masters fever. I do know. I 0:20:25.920 --> 0:20:29.399 do know. All of a sudden, yes, after after the 0:20:29.720 --> 0:20:31.960 week of last week gets by, and you know, we 0:20:32.280 --> 0:20:35.160 get through everything, and I sat down yesterday and started 0:20:35.160 --> 0:20:38.119 really focusing in on everything. I am I'm pumped. I'm 0:20:38.119 --> 0:20:40.679 pretty pumped. How many outright you got right now? I 0:20:40.800 --> 0:20:45.840 have one, two, three, four, five, six and seven likes? 0:20:45.920 --> 0:20:49.320 Kelly you Yeah, I'm I have five made two at 0:20:49.400 --> 0:20:51.560 least two dads, So yeah, I'll be up to help 0:20:51.560 --> 0:20:53.639 me up to seven. Okay, before we get into all 0:20:53.680 --> 0:20:56.920 your picks, whether it's outrights or derivatives, can I ask 0:20:56.920 --> 0:20:59.320 you the same question I asked of really everybody I 0:20:59.359 --> 0:21:00.760 had on but Joe p to before this on the 0:21:00.800 --> 0:21:03.800 podcast as well, Where do you guys stand on the 0:21:03.800 --> 0:21:06.360