WEBVTT - Surveillance: Levitt's Mkt. Outlook 0:00:05.160 --> 0:00:08.480 This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene, along 0:00:08.520 --> 0:00:12.319 with Jonathan Farrell and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day 0:00:12.400 --> 0:00:16.840 for insight from the best an economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. 0:00:17.280 --> 0:00:22.119 Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and 0:00:22.320 --> 0:00:26.600 anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, 0:00:26.640 --> 0:00:29.840 the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. 0:00:30.160 --> 0:00:33.360 Joining us now is Brian Levick, Global market strategist overt Invesco. Brian, 0:00:33.440 --> 0:00:35.400 I was thinking back to a conversation we had several 0:00:35.440 --> 0:00:38.160 months ago, and you refer to yourself as a fauxmo guy, 0:00:38.479 --> 0:00:40.920 someone who wanted to buy these techniques when everyone else 0:00:41.000 --> 0:00:42.920 was calling them just a bubble and a rally that 0:00:42.920 --> 0:00:45.760 wouldn't sustain itself. Brian, where are you now on that call? 0:00:45.800 --> 0:00:47.720 Given that a lot of people are starting to say, Okay, 0:00:48.040 --> 0:00:50.000 it's a ballmarket, we might have to live with it. 0:00:50.040 --> 0:00:52.160 Perhaps perhaps we can look how swear? Are you looking 0:00:52.200 --> 0:00:52.680 how swear? 0:00:53.960 --> 0:00:54.160 Yeah? 0:00:54.200 --> 0:00:57.400 I think you start to look elsewhere, and that's actually healthy. 0:00:57.440 --> 0:01:01.760 The market is broadening, it's more being into other, more 0:01:01.880 --> 0:01:06.120 value oriented parts of the market. The cyclical name smaller caps. 0:01:06.160 --> 0:01:10.920 So it's not just the very you know, narrow market 0:01:10.920 --> 0:01:14.480 that you saw call it March April May. You're actually 0:01:14.560 --> 0:01:18.760 getting assigned from markets that this is healthier and there's 0:01:18.840 --> 0:01:21.800 more participants. In so far, the earnings for the value 0:01:21.840 --> 0:01:23.479 oriented companies have been quite good. 0:01:23.800 --> 0:01:25.880 Ron I think's getting less bad or is the outlook 0:01:25.920 --> 0:01:27.200 for earnings actually improving? 0:01:29.680 --> 0:01:29.840 Well? 0:01:30.080 --> 0:01:32.400 I think that things are moderating. I mean that's what 0:01:32.440 --> 0:01:34.800 you would expect in this part of the cycle. But 0:01:34.840 --> 0:01:36.880 I think what a lot of investors missed is that 0:01:36.959 --> 0:01:39.840 the market priced it last year. I mean, you know, 0:01:40.840 --> 0:01:44.440 eleven months ago we were down nine percent in a month, 0:01:44.600 --> 0:01:47.039 so or thirteen months ago, I should say, So that 0:01:47.200 --> 0:01:52.240 was a market that had already assessed what was likely 0:01:52.320 --> 0:01:56.520 to be a weak economic environment because of all the tightening, 0:01:56.560 --> 0:01:59.520 and yet the economy has been more resilient than many expect. 0:01:59.560 --> 0:02:01.960 I think, or worry a bit is the valuations on 0:02:02.000 --> 0:02:05.440 the broad market. But that is in a handful of names, 0:02:05.680 --> 0:02:08.720 and you start to think about this broadening out the 0:02:08.840 --> 0:02:10.880 names that have not been bid up, or starting to 0:02:10.919 --> 0:02:12.760 participate more again, which is healthy. 0:02:13.360 --> 0:02:16.640 You got to participate, Brian Levitt. But I would suggest 0:02:16.639 --> 0:02:19.880 what you've got to do is extend your timeline. Where's 0:02:19.919 --> 0:02:22.960 the new levit terminal value? I mean it used to 0:02:22.960 --> 0:02:25.799 be seven years, five years. But if I'm going to 0:02:25.880 --> 0:02:29.880 buy Apple here or all these other fancy stocks, do 0:02:29.960 --> 0:02:33.480 I have to extend out my terminal value to justify 0:02:34.320 --> 0:02:36.080 acquisition of those shares? Now? 0:02:37.320 --> 0:02:41.960 Well, some of those names are trading at quite elevated valuations, 0:02:42.040 --> 0:02:45.320 so you want to be a little bit cautious and 0:02:45.360 --> 0:02:47.880 the near term. But yeah, I mean if you think 0:02:48.000 --> 0:02:53.520 about the structural themes that these companies are taking advantage of, 0:02:53.560 --> 0:02:56.880 those are long term stories. So you think about the 0:02:56.960 --> 0:03:00.600 AI trade, you get a bit of you four around 0:03:00.600 --> 0:03:02.440 that AI trade, and we saw that in the late 0:03:02.520 --> 0:03:04.640 nineties too with some names around the Internet. 0:03:04.680 --> 0:03:07.760 But if you pick the right names over the multi 0:03:07.840 --> 0:03:09.239 year period, you did quite well. 0:03:09.280 --> 0:03:13.120 It's about avoiding the euphoria and looking at the true fundamentals. 0:03:13.400 --> 0:03:16.080 Are you tilting It's a dangerous question for investment. Are 0:03:16.080 --> 0:03:20.280 you tilting active management or passive management? At this time? 0:03:21.360 --> 0:03:22.359 I think it's both. 0:03:23.480 --> 0:03:27.760 But in an environment where you're seeing a broadening out, 0:03:27.960 --> 0:03:32.799 you should see more opportunity in active management. And what 0:03:33.520 --> 0:03:36.400 you would expect as you move into you know, the 0:03:36.440 --> 0:03:39.400 next phase. So when we think about a new market 0:03:39.480 --> 0:03:43.480 cycle or recovery phase of a cycle, that's when smaller 0:03:43.520 --> 0:03:46.760 caps do really well, that's when international does really well, 0:03:46.800 --> 0:03:50.640 and in a lot of those places, that's where investors 0:03:50.680 --> 0:03:53.800 can can really take advantage of active I also see 0:03:53.800 --> 0:03:56.320 a lot of money going into money markets. We've all 0:03:56.360 --> 0:03:59.400 seen that, and you know, personally, I think yields start 0:03:59.440 --> 0:04:02.080 to come down and over time, so there is reinvestment 0:04:02.160 --> 0:04:05.160 risks there, and I would advise investors to look further 0:04:05.240 --> 0:04:07.840 out in duration, or to look further out in things 0:04:07.840 --> 0:04:11.119 like muni's or corporate bonds, where of course active management 0:04:11.120 --> 0:04:12.320 can serve you well. 0:04:12.600 --> 0:04:15.880 Basically, don't fight the momentum. You said, we make hay 0:04:15.880 --> 0:04:18.440 while the sun shines, and we heard from Pater Share 0:04:18.560 --> 0:04:21.880 over the weekend. Don't fight consensus in December and August, 0:04:21.880 --> 0:04:23.400 and that seems to be where we are. When does 0:04:23.440 --> 0:04:26.560 momentum stop working, I. 0:04:26.480 --> 0:04:28.960 Think you'll see the you know, when all of this 0:04:29.080 --> 0:04:32.440 tightening starts to find its way into the economy, you'll 0:04:32.440 --> 0:04:34.880 see the economy roll over a bit. 0:04:34.920 --> 0:04:35.840 Whether we're going to call. 0:04:35.760 --> 0:04:38.080 It a recession or just to slow down remains to 0:04:38.120 --> 0:04:41.360 be seen. But your markets go through these phases, and 0:04:41.480 --> 0:04:43.560 you know, right now this is a market that is 0:04:44.440 --> 0:04:47.880 feeling like a recovery trade. It's probably not the recovery trade. 0:04:47.920 --> 0:04:50.800 It's not the beginning of the next cycle. So you'll 0:04:50.800 --> 0:04:54.680 probably give back some of this in early twenty twenty 0:04:54.720 --> 0:04:59.280 four as the economy starts to roll over. But what 0:04:59.360 --> 0:05:03.320 that means is the FED pivots, and when the FED pivots, 0:05:03.920 --> 0:05:06.640 that's when the new cycle emerges. So this is a 0:05:07.040 --> 0:05:10.120 you know, this is still a recovery trade here. We're 0:05:10.240 --> 0:05:13.679 likely to see you know, a pullback in early twenty 0:05:13.680 --> 0:05:16.120 twenty four with the economy, but as soon as the 0:05:16.120 --> 0:05:19.880 FED is you know, shift stands typically over the next 0:05:19.880 --> 0:05:21.200 couple of years, if not more. 0:05:21.279 --> 0:05:23.000 You tend to do quite well in markets. 0:05:23.240 --> 0:05:25.240 So then how do you borrow the rally and not 0:05:25.360 --> 0:05:27.560 buy it, not buy to own for the long term 0:05:27.560 --> 0:05:30.280 if you're looking to avoid some of that give back 0:05:30.320 --> 0:05:31.400 in the beginning of next year. 0:05:32.400 --> 0:05:33.240 Well, that was part of. 0:05:33.160 --> 0:05:36.680 What I was talking with Jonathan about with the FOMO story. 0:05:36.760 --> 0:05:39.520 It's you know, I don't know how tactical investors want 0:05:39.520 --> 0:05:41.560 to be. I mean, if you you know, we. 0:05:41.560 --> 0:05:45.600 Use we have tactical strategies that will rotate based on where. 0:05:45.360 --> 0:05:47.000 You are in the regime. 0:05:47.120 --> 0:05:50.800 But if you're looking out even from here over the 0:05:50.839 --> 0:05:54.719 next few years, you should be invested in risk assets. 0:05:54.839 --> 0:05:57.360 If I use nineteen eighty eighty one as an example, 0:05:57.400 --> 0:05:59.359 and I think I've said it on this show before, 0:05:59.560 --> 0:06:03.839 that you've got a nice rally. Once inflation head peaked 0:06:03.920 --> 0:06:08.040 in March of eighty the market did roll over with 0:06:08.279 --> 0:06:11.400 the with the recession, you never went through the bottom. 0:06:11.839 --> 0:06:15.680 And again, if you had invested when inflation had peaked 0:06:15.720 --> 0:06:17.760 in eighty or when the FED was done tightening at 0:06:17.800 --> 0:06:20.560 the end of eighty, you were very happy in eighty two, 0:06:20.640 --> 0:06:22.839 eighty three, eighty four and beyond. 0:06:23.120 --> 0:06:25.400 So you'll focus on the you know. 0:06:25.480 --> 0:06:28.880 To me, it's focus on what tends to move markets 0:06:29.000 --> 0:06:32.560 most and of inflation, and the tightening tends to be 0:06:32.640 --> 0:06:33.800 very good for ass assets. 0:06:33.880 --> 0:06:35.279 Brian first in first out. 0:06:35.560 --> 0:06:39.200 The right hiden cycle in AM started months and months, 0:06:39.200 --> 0:06:42.680 maybe eight nine months before the tightening cycle started in DM. 0:06:42.760 --> 0:06:45.240 We saw the rate cutover in Chile on Friday. I 0:06:45.240 --> 0:06:47.360 think Brazil is going to follow on Wednesday. Others will 0:06:47.360 --> 0:06:50.920 follow later this year. We've got an easing posture. I'll 0:06:50.960 --> 0:06:53.320 call it coming out of China, Brian, what are the 0:06:53.320 --> 0:06:55.200 opportunities in emerging markets at the moment? 0:06:56.480 --> 0:06:58.320 Yeah, I mean, look, you want to lean into where 0:06:58.400 --> 0:07:01.640 policymakers are aiding support. 0:07:01.600 --> 0:07:03.799 To the economy, and this is a very interesting environment. 0:07:03.839 --> 0:07:07.160 You know, investors didn't love EM for the prior decade, 0:07:07.200 --> 0:07:10.080 these em struggled to come out of the global financial crisis. 0:07:10.120 --> 0:07:14.040 To your point, EM leads out more accommodative, and even 0:07:14.080 --> 0:07:16.160 what you saw in the developed world, what you saw 0:07:16.160 --> 0:07:19.440 specifically with Japan on Friday, I mean, this is a 0:07:19.600 --> 0:07:23.520 very different environment where the FED could be contemplating easing 0:07:23.640 --> 0:07:27.360 by next year and the major developed market central banks 0:07:27.360 --> 0:07:30.080 are still tightening, which tends to pretend a weaker dollar 0:07:30.240 --> 0:07:33.080 versus our major trading partners, which we haven't seen in 0:07:33.120 --> 0:07:36.440 a long time, and that starts to unlock some of 0:07:36.440 --> 0:07:40.760 that value that exists outside the United States. And you know, 0:07:40.800 --> 0:07:44.280 investors haven't been there, they've they've avoided it. But it's 0:07:44.360 --> 0:07:47.320 a better backdrop for international investing than we've seen in 0:07:47.360 --> 0:07:51.280 a while, because quite frankly, anytime international participated in the 0:07:51.360 --> 0:07:54.760 last cycle, either the US phrase rates or started a 0:07:54.800 --> 0:07:57.720 trade war, or we got a pandemic, which ended up 0:07:57.840 --> 0:08:02.440 abruptly ending any type of participation from international markets. 0:08:02.560 --> 0:08:04.040 We've been bent a few times, Brian. 0:08:04.080 --> 0:08:05.840 It's going to catch up as olwise in great co 0:08:06.320 --> 0:08:08.760 for the so far, Brian Levitte of Investment on the 0:08:08.800 --> 0:08:09.520 secrety market. 0:08:09.600 --> 0:08:22.520 Thank you, sir, right now on. 0:08:22.400 --> 0:08:24.920 What we've done under surveillance, looking here, particularly at the 0:08:24.960 --> 0:08:28.200 Pacific room. Carl Weinberg Joints. This is chief economist at 0:08:28.280 --> 0:08:32.120 High Frequency Economics, but far more than that is steeped 0:08:32.280 --> 0:08:36.520 in financial crisis on an international basis, and his notes 0:08:36.559 --> 0:08:41.120 on China and Japan have been absolutely definitive. Carl Weinberg, 0:08:41.280 --> 0:08:46.080 Why hasn't the yen moved abruptly off of the verbiage 0:08:46.120 --> 0:08:48.080 and action of the Bank of Japan. 0:08:49.120 --> 0:08:51.560 Hi, Good morning, Tom, Good morning, John, Good morning Lisa. 0:08:51.920 --> 0:08:54.560 You know the currency isn't going to move on a dime. 0:08:54.600 --> 0:08:57.960 They only moved on Friday. And this change in policy 0:08:58.559 --> 0:09:01.520 brings sets off different versus in the economy. It's not 0:09:01.600 --> 0:09:04.560 just about interest rate differentials, but if you're an investor 0:09:04.600 --> 0:09:07.600 in Japan and you're looking to deploy marginal funds, you're 0:09:07.640 --> 0:09:11.679 looking at almost an assured loss on long term jgbs 0:09:11.760 --> 0:09:13.840 right now. And if you need to have long term 0:09:13.880 --> 0:09:18.120 assets to offset long term liabilities, you have to look abroad. 0:09:18.320 --> 0:09:22.640 So to a certain extent, this tightening of monetary conditions, 0:09:22.720 --> 0:09:25.480 or the allowance of bond yields to rise, whatever you 0:09:25.520 --> 0:09:28.600 want to call it, drives money abroad and makes the 0:09:28.760 --> 0:09:31.480 end cheaper, which is not what your traditional interest rate 0:09:31.520 --> 0:09:33.840 theory says it are to do in the terms of 0:09:33.840 --> 0:09:36.520 the currency. But I think we have to expect a 0:09:36.600 --> 0:09:39.320 really mixed pattern for the end moving forward from here. 0:09:39.600 --> 0:09:41.800 Do you what's your scope and scale on yen move? 0:09:41.840 --> 0:09:43.400 I mean, I know you're not in the business of 0:09:43.520 --> 0:09:47.760 FX analysis, but are you looking one fifty en or 0:09:47.880 --> 0:09:49.400 one thirty two yen? 0:09:50.840 --> 0:09:53.800 Well, I'm not going to take a long term position 0:09:53.840 --> 0:09:55.520 on that because I still don't know what the Bank 0:09:55.559 --> 0:09:58.600 of Japan is up to entirely. I mean, we saw 0:09:58.640 --> 0:10:01.599 this widening of the band. Was this a technical adjustment 0:10:01.760 --> 0:10:05.560 just to allow more trading both ways in the bond 0:10:05.600 --> 0:10:09.240 market and to improve trading conditions for people who have 0:10:09.320 --> 0:10:11.160 to be in the market, or was it the first 0:10:11.200 --> 0:10:14.600 step in an actual tightening of monetary conditions. It's not 0:10:14.720 --> 0:10:17.320 at all clear. As Lisa pointed out, we did the 0:10:17.360 --> 0:10:20.880 calculations that show that if we had the stock if 0:10:20.920 --> 0:10:23.520 we had the bond market fully adjust to the increase 0:10:23.520 --> 0:10:26.920 in the band, that the hit to portfolios economy wide 0:10:26.920 --> 0:10:28.920 would be about four and a half percent of GDP. 0:10:29.280 --> 0:10:31.520 That was our math, and right now we have a 0:10:31.600 --> 0:10:34.800 huge profit on the nike A that if we were 0:10:34.800 --> 0:10:37.360 to call the end of the fiscal year today and 0:10:37.480 --> 0:10:41.160 all those bond yield, all that bond y headroom were used, 0:10:41.360 --> 0:10:44.160 we'd see kind of a wash between gains on equities 0:10:44.200 --> 0:10:47.280 and losses on bonds. That's a one shot deal, and 0:10:47.360 --> 0:10:49.920 I think that uetus On is hoping to take advantage 0:10:49.960 --> 0:10:53.160 of that, hoping that the stock market will continue its 0:10:53.280 --> 0:10:56.199 rally and offset losses on the bond market and give 0:10:56.280 --> 0:10:59.920 him this little step toward normalization. But if that's it, 0:10:59.760 --> 0:11:02.240 if it's half a percentage point and that's it, then 0:11:02.240 --> 0:11:04.760 there's no impact on the end whatsoever beyond the next 0:11:04.760 --> 0:11:06.960 couple of weeks, and there's no basis to look for 0:11:06.960 --> 0:11:07.640 a major move. 0:11:07.960 --> 0:11:10.680 We were also talking about China and how much willingness 0:11:10.679 --> 0:11:13.000 there will be by the People's Bank of China and 0:11:13.080 --> 0:11:16.720 just in general from authorities to support an economy that's 0:11:16.760 --> 0:11:20.760 flirting with deflation. Outright deflation. Do you think that they 0:11:20.800 --> 0:11:24.120 can come in with something that can avoid more protracted 0:11:24.200 --> 0:11:26.560 deflation over a sustained period of time. 0:11:27.520 --> 0:11:30.199 Well, good morning, Lisa. You know, China's inflation has been 0:11:30.280 --> 0:11:32.320 not a thing much to talk about for a long time. 0:11:32.360 --> 0:11:35.440 We've been talking about sub two percent inflation except in 0:11:35.480 --> 0:11:38.240 times when pork places have been stalling. So we're at 0:11:38.280 --> 0:11:40.680 the low end of a distribution, but we're not nearly 0:11:40.760 --> 0:11:44.640 in a deflationary range. The signs of deflation are not 0:11:44.720 --> 0:11:48.840 there in China. In particular, the monetary aggregates are still growing, 0:11:48.880 --> 0:11:50.960 although not as fast as they like them to grow, 0:11:51.160 --> 0:11:55.119 and wages are still going up. So I'm not particularly 0:11:55.160 --> 0:11:59.560 scared about deflation in China. What concerns me more is 0:11:59.760 --> 0:12:02.679 that of a deep recession in China that might have 0:12:02.800 --> 0:12:05.960 impacts on the stability of the regime, on the stability 0:12:06.000 --> 0:12:09.440 and constancy of economic policy, and that's where I think 0:12:09.679 --> 0:12:14.320 the big risks are. China, unlike the Western economies, doesn't 0:12:14.400 --> 0:12:18.040 respond to interest rate cuts, to the normal kinds of 0:12:18.160 --> 0:12:21.960 consumer spending or depressing policies that we see in the 0:12:22.000 --> 0:12:25.160 Western world, because most of their growth is driven by 0:12:25.440 --> 0:12:28.280 investment and not by consumer spending, and most of that 0:12:28.360 --> 0:12:31.640 investment is planned by the state. The problem with their 0:12:31.679 --> 0:12:34.439 growth engine is that they've run out of really lucrative 0:12:34.480 --> 0:12:37.679 investment projects and that's causing their growth rate to slow 0:12:37.760 --> 0:12:40.320 down on a secular basis, and that's what they have 0:12:40.400 --> 0:12:44.320 to try to offset by switching, by switching the source 0:12:44.360 --> 0:12:49.000 of growth from investment to consumption, and that requires a 0:12:49.000 --> 0:12:50.160 careful mix of policies. 0:12:50.200 --> 0:12:52.080 So just quickly, Carl, how likely do you think it 0:12:52.160 --> 0:12:55.000 is that there is some sort of deeper recession within China? 0:12:56.320 --> 0:12:59.080 Well, I think that a recession is probably not the 0:12:59.160 --> 0:13:01.920 right word. Would be what we would call a growth recession, 0:13:02.160 --> 0:13:05.960 where growth doesn't occur fast enough to absorb people who 0:13:06.000 --> 0:13:07.960 still want to come from the farms into the city 0:13:08.080 --> 0:13:11.120 and to generate the increases in income that people want 0:13:11.160 --> 0:13:13.400 to see. I think that's the scenario we're looking at 0:13:13.480 --> 0:13:16.360 in China. Sub par of growth, so we'll see growth 0:13:16.400 --> 0:13:18.720 this year of maybe one or two or three percent 0:13:18.880 --> 0:13:22.520 is our forecast about three percent, but that's way short 0:13:22.520 --> 0:13:24.400 of what they want, which is in the five to 0:13:24.440 --> 0:13:27.440 six percent range, and that's the problem for policy makers. 0:13:27.640 --> 0:13:29.840 Cal thank you for your insight. It's always valuable. 0:13:29.880 --> 0:13:33.160 Can't wipe back there a high frequency economics on China 0:13:33.200 --> 0:13:34.360 and what's developing at the moment. 0:13:39.600 --> 0:13:42.240 Right now, we will go to the red bars. They're 0:13:42.240 --> 0:13:44.320 in a New York Times poll today, which is front 0:13:44.360 --> 0:13:47.560 and center as we stagger into August of twenty twenty three. 0:13:47.640 --> 0:13:50.760 It is an August of a Republican debate. Wendy Schiller 0:13:50.840 --> 0:13:54.000 joins this non director of Tomins Center for American Politics 0:13:54.440 --> 0:13:59.199 Policy at Brown University. She's familiar with the electoral process. 0:13:59.280 --> 0:14:01.880 When have you ever seen anything like this? We got 0:14:01.920 --> 0:14:06.079 a guy with various legal challenges completely dominating a party 0:14:06.559 --> 0:14:10.880 fifty four percent. Trump, the governor of Florida is seventeen percent, 0:14:11.320 --> 0:14:15.240 and everybody's barely a heartbeat as well. Does Trump own 0:14:15.320 --> 0:14:15.840 the party? 0:14:17.080 --> 0:14:19.040 It looks like he owns the party right now, and 0:14:19.080 --> 0:14:21.760 he's being treated like the incumbent president. 0:14:21.920 --> 0:14:23.560 You know, how dare you challenge him? 0:14:23.800 --> 0:14:26.160 I think you know, if you're the opposition, the takeaway 0:14:26.200 --> 0:14:27.200 from this poll is. 0:14:27.120 --> 0:14:28.880 You have to go after Trump directly. 0:14:29.080 --> 0:14:32.120 I think they've all resisted it, particularly DeSantis. He sort 0:14:32.160 --> 0:14:33.960 of runs around it, but he's got to go right 0:14:34.040 --> 0:14:34.560 at Trump. 0:14:34.600 --> 0:14:37.040 Some of the comments that they've solicited in the poll 0:14:37.280 --> 0:14:40.160 after their sort of standard answers or Trump's a fighter. 0:14:40.240 --> 0:14:43.200 Trump's a fighter, that's exactly what they want to see 0:14:43.200 --> 0:14:44.080 from the other candidates. 0:14:44.080 --> 0:14:45.800 Are you willing to do what this guy does? 0:14:46.560 --> 0:14:49.560 And the other warning sign I think for the party 0:14:49.560 --> 0:14:51.200 as a whole is that there be seems to be 0:14:51.240 --> 0:14:53.160 a bunch of Republicans that are willing to throw out 0:14:53.160 --> 0:14:56.240 the rules. So if Trump loses a few primaries or 0:14:56.280 --> 0:14:59.080 it's really close and he claims they're rigged, he can 0:14:59.160 --> 0:15:03.320 undermine the entire Republican Party nomination system. So I think 0:15:03.360 --> 0:15:05.520 that the comments are really important to look at in 0:15:05.520 --> 0:15:05.840 this poll. 0:15:06.480 --> 0:15:10.000 Longer and far away, Jimmy Carter, the governor of Georgia, 0:15:10.240 --> 0:15:14.080 walked down the stairs of an airplane in Rochester, New York, 0:15:14.160 --> 0:15:17.840 and shook Michka Stanza's hand, and we all said, who 0:15:17.960 --> 0:15:21.360 is this guy? Who's the Jimmy Carter this time around? 0:15:21.720 --> 0:15:27.560 Of the two percent, three percent, Pats Scott, Hayley, Ramaswami Christy, 0:15:27.760 --> 0:15:30.880 who's the Jimmy Carter of the moment right now? 0:15:30.920 --> 0:15:31.880 I think it's Tim Scott. 0:15:32.240 --> 0:15:34.560 I think that Tim Scott has a lot of equalities 0:15:34.560 --> 0:15:38.600 that would appeal to the base if they could get 0:15:38.640 --> 0:15:41.240 themselves out of a sort of culture personality of Trump, 0:15:42.000 --> 0:15:44.200 and you know, out of the sort of avenging his 0:15:44.320 --> 0:15:46.800 loss in twenty twenty. I think he has a lot 0:15:46.840 --> 0:15:51.520 of appeal, particularly among evangelicals or conservative Christian voters in 0:15:51.560 --> 0:15:55.960 the South, and can keel away theoretically some portion of 0:15:56.000 --> 0:15:59.280 that African American base, just as George Bush sort appealed 0:15:59.280 --> 0:16:01.960 away considered abortion of Blatino base, but also a little 0:16:01.960 --> 0:16:04.640 bit of the African American base. And I think that's 0:16:04.760 --> 0:16:06.480 someone you should pay attention to. 0:16:06.560 --> 0:16:08.600 I think you the political observer should pay attention to. 0:16:08.920 --> 0:16:12.440 And a Trump tim Scott ticket would be a very 0:16:12.480 --> 0:16:14.720 interesting dilemma I think for the dempart party. 0:16:14.880 --> 0:16:17.000 You said that one of the things that candidates have 0:16:17.040 --> 0:16:19.800 to do is go straight after the former president Trump, 0:16:20.040 --> 0:16:23.800 and yet Will Heard, formerly of Texas representative, came out 0:16:23.840 --> 0:16:26.240 and actually did that in Iowa and he was booed 0:16:26.240 --> 0:16:28.120 off the stage. What makes you think that it will 0:16:28.120 --> 0:16:29.280 be received by the voters. 0:16:30.320 --> 0:16:32.560 Well, the question is who's going to these rallies, you know, 0:16:32.600 --> 0:16:35.320 who's actually going to vote six months from now, And 0:16:35.360 --> 0:16:37.880 do you set the stage like Chris Christy's trying to 0:16:37.920 --> 0:16:40.160 do in some ways of saying I can fight just 0:16:40.200 --> 0:16:40.840 as hard for. 0:16:40.840 --> 0:16:43.320 What you believe in. And I'm willing to take your boots. 0:16:43.600 --> 0:16:45.520 I mean, I'm willing to take anything you throw at me. 0:16:45.640 --> 0:16:46.800 But I'm going to stay in the race. 0:16:47.120 --> 0:16:49.080 And I think that's, you know, if it's possible for 0:16:49.160 --> 0:16:51.560 them to do in terms of financial contributions. The other 0:16:51.640 --> 0:16:54.000 problem with this poll for DeSantis is that it will 0:16:54.000 --> 0:16:56.960 scare donors right that this guy can't get traction. 0:16:57.200 --> 0:16:58.040 What do we do? 0:16:58.400 --> 0:17:00.360 And the Republicans have to be careful what the Senate 0:17:00.360 --> 0:17:03.120 in twenty four the House. This helps right, generating Trump 0:17:03.200 --> 0:17:05.240 fans going out the door for calling as good in 0:17:05.320 --> 0:17:07.240 Jerrymander districts for the House Republicans. 0:17:07.400 --> 0:17:08.960 But for the Senate they lost. 0:17:08.720 --> 0:17:12.000 In twenty twenty two mainly because of Trump endorsed candidates. 0:17:12.200 --> 0:17:15.119 The same fate awaits them in twenty twenty four. So 0:17:15.200 --> 0:17:17.040 this is going to send I think, some shutters through 0:17:17.080 --> 0:17:18.160 the entire Republican Party. 0:17:18.160 --> 0:17:20.760 Today, We're going to get some disclosures from the former 0:17:20.800 --> 0:17:23.800 President Trump's campaign in terms of the Political Action Committee 0:17:23.840 --> 0:17:25.879 and how some of the money has been spent. The 0:17:25.960 --> 0:17:29.040 expectation is that millions, tens of millions of dollars have 0:17:29.119 --> 0:17:31.760 been spent on legal bills for Trump as. 0:17:31.600 --> 0:17:32.960 Well as his associates. 0:17:33.320 --> 0:17:35.800 Will this be a problem for the donors or has 0:17:35.840 --> 0:17:38.080 this been sort of understood that this is sort of 0:17:38.080 --> 0:17:40.720 the fight that they're trying to get behind as part 0:17:40.760 --> 0:17:43.640 of the fight that he is launching for president. 0:17:44.080 --> 0:17:47.439 Lisa, This is a sort of a watching technical question 0:17:47.520 --> 0:17:50.400 for people who care about campaign rules. But Trump has 0:17:50.400 --> 0:17:54.399 made no bones about so listening money for him for 0:17:54.600 --> 0:17:57.440 his campaign, for his legal defense. It is all about him. 0:17:57.480 --> 0:18:00.439 It is not about the Republican Party. It is about him. 0:18:00.520 --> 0:18:03.520 So nobody will be surprised, and the donors, particularly small donors, 0:18:03.520 --> 0:18:06.000 don't seem to care. They're in it for him. He's 0:18:06.040 --> 0:18:08.919 their team. They're not defecting from him. The problem is, 0:18:09.560 --> 0:18:11.400 you know, the majority of voters or the people who 0:18:11.400 --> 0:18:14.840 can win an election for you, have defected, particularly Independence, 0:18:15.000 --> 0:18:17.359 but some slice of the Republican Party, and that for 0:18:17.440 --> 0:18:21.199 the general election is really a tremendous problem, you know, 0:18:21.240 --> 0:18:23.879 facing the Republican Party going to twenty four. So the 0:18:23.960 --> 0:18:26.119 voters in the Republican Party don't care how Trump spends 0:18:26.119 --> 0:18:26.480 the money. 0:18:26.480 --> 0:18:28.000 They're giving it to support him. 0:18:28.240 --> 0:18:30.520 Can we talk about the voters in the Democratic Party 0:18:30.520 --> 0:18:32.960 and how they might view the president's handling of a 0:18:33.000 --> 0:18:35.920 situation with his son at the moment when there are 0:18:36.080 --> 0:18:39.320 plenty of valligations over the last year about his business dealings. 0:18:39.480 --> 0:18:41.320 What have you heard of on that recently? 0:18:42.440 --> 0:18:45.840 Well, I mean, I think Democrats face an enthusiasm gap. 0:18:45.960 --> 0:18:48.800 We've seen that Biden's getting a little bit better, you know, school, 0:18:48.800 --> 0:18:51.080 We're even going a little bit higher. You know, things 0:18:51.119 --> 0:18:53.879 are better than people thought they might be, particularly with 0:18:53.920 --> 0:18:56.919 the economy, and some of the policies that he enacted 0:18:56.920 --> 0:18:59.720 are starting to show to voters. So he's got a 0:18:59.720 --> 0:19:02.440 little bit of momentum. He said flat out he wouldn't 0:19:02.440 --> 0:19:05.560 pardon his own son. This deal at fell apart a 0:19:05.640 --> 0:19:07.960 plea deal. I think in the end, politically that's an 0:19:08.000 --> 0:19:11.399 advantage for Joe Biden. I think people were skeptical of 0:19:11.400 --> 0:19:13.200 that deal and it can be a liability for him 0:19:13.560 --> 0:19:16.439 a year from now among Democratic voters who don't get 0:19:16.440 --> 0:19:17.760 the same deal from prosecutors. 0:19:18.080 --> 0:19:20.960 So I think in how this plays out for Hunter. 0:19:20.760 --> 0:19:23.600 Biden, if there's any punishment that people view as legitimate, 0:19:23.840 --> 0:19:26.359 I think that actually helps Joe Biden personally obviously not, 0:19:26.760 --> 0:19:28.960 but politically I think he does Wendy. 0:19:28.720 --> 0:19:41.520 Shela of Brand University. Wendy, thank you, But. 0:19:41.560 --> 0:19:43.960 We need to talk to Doug Cass because he is 0:19:44.000 --> 0:19:48.840 a conduit to Kate Upton. And the real question here 0:19:49.600 --> 0:19:53.600 is does missus Verlander does she decide that we need 0:19:53.640 --> 0:19:57.440 to stay in New York for their daughter's well being 0:19:57.880 --> 0:20:00.560 and schooling. Doug cast is Kate and the one that 0:20:00.600 --> 0:20:03.720 will decide whether mister Verlander goes in the Mets to 0:20:03.840 --> 0:20:05.280 the dreaded New York Yankees. 0:20:06.760 --> 0:20:12.240 We do need some help these Speaking of pitches these days, 0:20:12.240 --> 0:20:17.280