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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites the podcast presented by BET three

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Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Action Network. I'm

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Speaker 1: Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. Today

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Speaker 1: is our NFL wild Card Weekend Best Bets episode. This

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Speaker 1: is the episode where we will get feedback from the

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Speaker 1: wise guys who listen to the show. We will build

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Speaker 1: our moneyline Underdog round Robin. We will give out our

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Speaker 1: Foxhole bet and our big balls Better the week, we

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Speaker 1: will narrow down our favorite picks across this wild Card Weekend.

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Speaker 1: As our old pal Colin Coward likes to say, there's

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Speaker 1: a ce money.

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Speaker 2: Out there, because there's a sea of money out there.

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Speaker 1: If you want to follow along with our official bets,

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Speaker 1: you can check them out in the award winning Action

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Speaker 1: Network app followed the Favorites Podcast to all of those

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Speaker 1: joining the podcast version of the show. As promised earlier,

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Speaker 1: this week will be joined by our Favorites contest first

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Speaker 1: place winner newly minted forty thousand dollars winner Jesse Goldberg

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Speaker 1: at the very end of the show. That's on the

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Speaker 1: podcast version only, not in the live version. Podcast version only.

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Speaker 1: Let's bring in my co host, my companion, my compadre

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Speaker 1: my BFF professional better. Simon hunter Head, Oh.

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Speaker 2: Simon, how are we doing, Chad.

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Speaker 1: Dude, I'm feeling good. I get to see you this weekend.

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Speaker 1: I'm excited. Before we get to all that, here's the news.

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Speaker 1: In the forty eight hours since we recorded our Tuesday show,

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Speaker 1: three legendary coaches have retired were parted ways with their teams.

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Speaker 1: Of course, we're talking about Nick Saban retiring at Alabama,

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Speaker 1: Bill Belichick officially being announced as no longer the head

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Speaker 1: coach for the New England Patriots, Pete Carroll no longer

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Speaker 1: the head coach for the Seattle Seahawks.

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Speaker 2: Look.

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Speaker 1: On Tuesday, we talked about Mike Vrabel being in our

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Speaker 1: Favorites Hall of Fame. It's hard to deny that these

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Speaker 1: coaches would get their own wings in a Favorites Hall

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Speaker 1: of Fame. They literally defied the odds when it comes

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Speaker 1: to betting. Since two thousand, there have been twenty four

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Speaker 1: Super Bowls and twenty four college football title games. It's

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Speaker 1: forty eight total. Nick Saban, Pete Carroll, and Bill Belichick

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Speaker 1: have coached in twenty two of those games. That's forty

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Speaker 1: six percent and one p fifteen of them. That is insane.

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Speaker 2: It's so much to even talk about. Where you know,

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Speaker 2: Nick Saban leaving changes the whole landscape of college football.

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Speaker 2: I mean, Bill Belichick, I mean how much money have

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Speaker 2: we won betting on these guys.

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Speaker 1: I can tell you exactly how much we've won. Here's

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Speaker 1: a run on how amazing Nick Saban, Bill Belichick, and

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Speaker 1: Pete Carroll have been in their careers, both straight up

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Speaker 1: and against the spread. Okay, straight up, these are straight

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Speaker 1: from Evan Abrams. These three coaches combined, Nick Saban, Pete Carroll,

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Speaker 1: Bill Belichick nine twenty three, four fifteen and two straight up.

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Speaker 1: That's sixty nine percent of their games. They are fifty

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Speaker 1: five percent against the spread in their eighty four combined

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Speaker 1: seasons as head coaches for the NFL College Football. To

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Speaker 1: their win totals over they are fifty twenty six and eight,

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Speaker 1: which is sixty six percent. Their ranks against the spread

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Speaker 1: the past twenty years in the NFL. Bill Belichick is

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Speaker 1: one of one hundred and fifty coaches, Pete eighteenth, Nick

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Speaker 1: Saban in college football eighth best against the spread record

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Speaker 1: of more than six hundred coaches. Okay, these guys as

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Speaker 1: favorites of seven or higher, a touchdown or higher. Bill

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Speaker 1: Belichick fifty four percent against the spread. Nick Saban fifty

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Speaker 1: six percent against the spread. Pete Carroll fifty five percent

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Speaker 1: against the spread in college fifty three percent against the

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Speaker 1: spread in the pros. Still a money maker. You lost

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Speaker 1: money betting against these guys as big favorites. You don't

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Speaker 1: do that against their coaches.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, let's get into the game. Shaf BEOPO are sick

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Speaker 2: of us talking about these coaches.

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Speaker 1: As a reminder, The Favorites Podcast is presented by bet

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Speaker 1: three sixty five. Bet three sixty five doesn't do ordinary.

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Speaker 1: That's why you get more boosts with them than with

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Speaker 1: anyone else. Every day they power out the odds one

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Speaker 1: hundreds of bets to give you a chance to win more.

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Speaker 1: Bet three sixty five boost specific markets. You're winnings and

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Speaker 1: at Bet three sixty five. Must be twenty one or

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Speaker 1: older and present in Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia,

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Speaker 1: or eighteen and older in Kentucky gambling problem called one

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Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in

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Speaker 1: Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply. All right, wild Card weekend

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Speaker 1: is approaching. Lines have been moving. Let's get two sharp colls.

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Speaker 2: Hello, who's there? I'm talking Rain Rain telephone range. Somebody

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Speaker 2: said maybe would do the mad and shout out to

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Speaker 2: our layer listeners that turn their alerts on in the

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Speaker 2: action app. And they were able to get the plus

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Speaker 2: three on Houston. Told you exactly what's gonna happen. The

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Speaker 2: plus two was gonna pop. The pros are gonna come

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Speaker 2: in and slam it. That's literally any probably talk to.

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Speaker 2: They smashed that plus three. So I think it was

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Speaker 2: there for four hours. You could have had it. It

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Speaker 2: was sitting there in the multiple books, and it's gone.

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Speaker 2: It's two and a half. I don't I really don't

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Speaker 2: think it's gonna get back to the three. I think

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Speaker 2: the books know that if they do need any type

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Speaker 2: of Houston money, they can just move to three and

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Speaker 2: they'll get tons of it. So pros, they love Cleveland

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Speaker 2: at minus one and a half, they love Houston au

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Speaker 2: plus three. Do what you want. I mean, we're gonna

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Speaker 2: go through that game. We're gonna have a bunch of

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Speaker 2: stats and trends free. But it's such a key number game,

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Speaker 2: Like it's the pros are just split on it, Like

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Speaker 2: I know plenty of guys for both sides. So this

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Speaker 2: next one's pretty interesting. The Chiefs Miami game, I don't

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Speaker 2: really have that much of an opinion on it. Like

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Speaker 2: I did put an action a bet in the action

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Speaker 2: app of taking the Chief's money line with the Bills

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Speaker 2: money line, and it's just playing the numbers of Like, Okay,

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Speaker 2: Miami doesn't win in cold weather games, but I can't

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Speaker 2: wrap my head around taking the Chiefs at minus four

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Speaker 2: and a half now, Like it's just it's impossible for

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Speaker 2: me to do, Like just because they're off for a

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Speaker 2: week doesn't make me forget about how bad this offense

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Speaker 2: has been for the last three months. It's just I

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Speaker 2: can't get behind taking the Chiefs. I don't care how

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Speaker 2: cold it is, the wind everything. I want to take

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Speaker 2: Miami here. So the pros I've talked to, they're in

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Speaker 2: the same boat as me, where it's like they like

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Speaker 2: the Chiefs at three, they liked them at minus three

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Speaker 2: and a half, and once it hit four to four

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Speaker 2: and a half, It's like, all right, might as well

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Speaker 2: wait and see high this number can go for Miami,

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Speaker 2: because that's gonna be the play. Like this numbers moved

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Speaker 2: too much based off weather. Miami is one of the

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Speaker 2: best running teams in football. Like, it's just such a

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Speaker 2: big deal to me what the situation is with mostert

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Speaker 2: So like me, most pros have either hit this number

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Speaker 2: or they've just been waiting now for the last day

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Speaker 2: or two to see where this number is going to go.

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Speaker 2: So a lot of conversation around that Chiefs Miami game.

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Speaker 2: Pittsburgh Bill is a game we kind of talked about

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Speaker 2: just because you love the Bill so much. If the

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Speaker 2: weather keeps getting worse, I guarantee you guys are just

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Speaker 2: gonna pound this this Pittsburgh number just because your biggest asset,

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Speaker 2: Josh Allen. In this game against Rudolph, it's gone like

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Speaker 2: there is no advantage either side, right, It's like, okay,

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Speaker 2: who can just survive? Like I haven't had his amazing

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Speaker 2: articley put out talking about how the Bills have fared

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Speaker 2: in this kind of weather games. And I think they

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Speaker 2: had one game where they blew out Miami, right, and

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Speaker 2: then the other games all seems pretty close, so we

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Speaker 2: don't have enough data there to really take a side

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Speaker 2: depending on the weather. But Chad's locked in a minus

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Speaker 2: ten on Buffalo, so I know where he's at. It's

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Speaker 2: just interesting talking the pros where it's like they're like me,

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Speaker 2: They're like this numbers move so much off the weather

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Speaker 2: and the watt news. At what point does it move

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Speaker 2: too much? Right? And that's the thing here. Now it's

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Speaker 2: just been sitting at ten though, right, I mean we're

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Speaker 2: two days later, it's still at ten. This next game

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Speaker 2: me and Chain are really going to dive into, so

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Speaker 2: I don't want to get too much away, but yeah,

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Speaker 2: the pros love Green Bay. I know brainer play. The

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Speaker 2: fear is why isn't the number moved? And when I

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Speaker 2: talked to a couple of bookmakers, they're not moving it

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Speaker 2: because they know all the teasers, all the parlays, all

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Speaker 2: the moneyline players are all gonna be all over Dallas

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Speaker 2: and there's no need for them to really move it.

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Speaker 2: Like that helps them balance the book. The fact that

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Speaker 2: so many professions are coming on the seven and a half.

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Speaker 2: But that's definitely the public side is Dallas. I thought

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Speaker 2: it was gonna be Green Bay in the seven and

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Speaker 2: a half. But from everyone I've talked to, it seems

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Speaker 2: like the public likes Dallas in that spot next one.

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Speaker 2: We already knew the pros were gonna love the Rams

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Speaker 2: and everyone I talked to that's the thing that scared

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Speaker 2: me right now, Chads. I've maybe talked to two guys

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Speaker 2: that like Detroit. It seems like everyone is a so

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Speaker 2: lockstep on this RAMS team and at that number, even

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Speaker 2: have three. I talked to some pros. It's still like

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Speaker 2: it a three, but we said it on Tuesday. You

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Speaker 2: want to grab that three and a half. I knew

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Speaker 2: it was going to disappear. It has even the number

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Speaker 2: keeps moving towards the Rams. Like they were plus one

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Speaker 2: oh five at a couple of books. Now they're minus

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Speaker 2: one o five at those books. So even the juice

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Speaker 2: in the big is starting to move against this RAMS team.

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Speaker 2: And the final one Tampa. No shock the pros they

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Speaker 2: liked the Eagles at under three. Now that it's at three,

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Speaker 2: they like Tampa. They think that's the value right now

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Speaker 2: is on Tampa and another game will dive more into obviously,

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Speaker 2: but you know, Baker practice didn't look like the ankle

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Speaker 2: or the ribs were bothering them on the flip side.

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Speaker 2: The Eagles, you know Smith is not practicing yet. I

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Speaker 2: know Aj is limited. They got major injuries Eagles compared

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Speaker 2: to this Bucks team. So definitely an interesting game we're

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Speaker 2: going to dive into.

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Speaker 1: We go to the As a reminder, you can catch

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Speaker 1: every episode of The Favorites live on YouTube. For those

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Speaker 1: enjoying on YouTube, don't forget get to give us a

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Speaker 1: like and subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page. By

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Speaker 1: the way, last chances to RSVP The Favorites podcast live

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Speaker 1: at The Shepherd and the Knucklehead, Hoboken, New Jersey wild

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Speaker 1: Card weekend Sunday, January fourteenth. We will be there four

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Speaker 1: pm before the Browns and Texans kickoff. Free drinks, free entry,

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Speaker 1: free hugs from me and Simon while we sweat the

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Speaker 1: bets together. We'll go live with the Sunday episode. At

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Speaker 1: seven point thirty, we will talk to our second place

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Speaker 1: finisher from the contest, the man who had thirty five

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Speaker 1: thousand dollars stolen from him by the Carolina Panthers. We

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Speaker 1: also have a live event Saturday Wildcard watch party with

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Speaker 1: the whole cast and crew from Action Network, Stucky Raybunk

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Speaker 1: Kerner Me Bill Steelers at one pm. Event starts at

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Speaker 1: four before Packers Cowboys again RSVP in the link in

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Speaker 1: the episode, all Right, we got to get to it, man,

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Speaker 1: we got to get to it. Betting in the playoffs

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Speaker 1: is a lot different than betting in the regular season.

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Speaker 1: Don't be scared of the wild cards. Public sides in

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Speaker 1: the wildcard round. Last twenty years, teams getting a majority

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Speaker 1: of the tickets fifty three percent against the spread in

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Speaker 1: the wildcard, best of any round in the playoffs. Okay,

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Speaker 1: here we go, Cleveland at Houston. Like you said, it

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Speaker 1: popped for about four hours. I missed it. I didn't

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Speaker 1: see it all the home and away splits we rent through.

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Speaker 1: But it's worth reminding people. This Brown's defense just great

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Speaker 1: at home, historically bad on the road. Average rushing yards

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Speaker 1: gained against this Browns defense on the road two yards higher.

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Speaker 1: They give up twice as many touchdown passes in one

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Speaker 1: fewer game, nearly three yards more per pass attempt in

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Speaker 1: one fewer game on the road. So nine games at home,

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Speaker 1: eight games on the road, they gave up one hundred

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Speaker 1: and twelve more points thirty points per game. CJ lights

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Speaker 1: out at home. I actually think it will get back

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Speaker 1: to three on Sunday. Nobody's going to stop. The public

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Speaker 1: is not going to stop betting the Browns. So I

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Speaker 1: do think there's going to be a chance to get

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Speaker 1: the Texans at plus three. But I want to get

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Speaker 1: your take right now because I think this may be

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Speaker 1: one of our foxhular big balls.

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Speaker 2: I don't know, because I do, I do. I did

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Speaker 2: want to get there with you. But even when I

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Speaker 2: was reading Evans article, it's like the number one, it's

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Speaker 2: the number one defensive football. I mean, you just gave

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Speaker 2: away the splits. This is how dominant they were, though

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Speaker 2: they were still the number one defense in all football.

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Speaker 2: When you put all those numbers together, they're home and

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Speaker 2: away splits facing a rookie QB, a rookie head coach.

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Speaker 2: And I think Evan put in his article the last

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Speaker 2: time this happened, it's own three. Right when a rookie

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Speaker 2: plays against the number one defense in the playoffs, they're

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Speaker 2: owing three straight up. So me and you are basically

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Speaker 2: betting on this being a two point game if you're

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Speaker 2: taking the two and a half right now in Houston.

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Speaker 2: That's why it's like I want people to get the

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Speaker 2: three because it's just such nice insurance to have, especially

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Speaker 2: in the playoffs. You want that, you really do, and

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Speaker 2: I don't want people to be buying points here like

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Speaker 2: I'd rather get it naturally. So I'm hoping Chad's right.

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Speaker 2: But from my view, it seems like the books are

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Speaker 2: taking a position here, like the fact that they did

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Speaker 2: move it back to two and a half, and like

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Speaker 2: Chad said, every book you look at, all the money

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Speaker 2: is Brown's money. Right now, everyone is grabbing that two

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Speaker 2: and a half with Flacco. I mean, if Chad wants

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Speaker 2: to make one of our bets, I'll support it. But

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Speaker 2: it's like, I want people to get the three, and

259
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Speaker 2: that's the goal here, Like I got the three. I

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Speaker 2: waited for it, it popped. I hope Chad's right and

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Speaker 2: it pops again. But the fear here they're taking that

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Speaker 2: position like the books they're there's certain games and the

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Speaker 2: playoffs still take a position on that's they're going to

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Speaker 2: be our money maker for them, and this seems like

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Speaker 2: one of them because they're they're looking at what Chad's

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Speaker 2: looking at, which is CJ is better at home, he's

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Speaker 2: better as a dog, and this Browns defense is just

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Speaker 2: simply a different team on the road. So if you

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Speaker 2: want to know who the books and the pros are backing,

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Speaker 2: it's going to be Houston. Like I thought it was

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Speaker 2: gonna be more split. The way it's looking, the more

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Speaker 2: this week is gone on, it just seems like that's

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Speaker 2: the side of the books in the pro So it

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Speaker 2: totally makes sense why you liked this early on. It

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Speaker 2: took me for a while to get there. It was

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Speaker 2: just like I was fighting with the number. But Houston

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Speaker 2: is the right side as a bet.

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Speaker 1: Here the only reason I'm mentioning it as a foxhole potential.

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Speaker 1: We don't have that many options, and no we don't.

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Speaker 2: We don't.

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Speaker 1: As we go, we already did the Rams, as Simon says,

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Speaker 1: we already did the Bills is the exact decision. There's

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Speaker 1: only a handful of games we can look at. I

284
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Speaker 1: want it to be at three to two. Like when

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Speaker 1: I woke up, I wanted it to be at two

286
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Speaker 1: and a half, and I wanted to say, all right, folks,

287
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Speaker 1: our foxhole is going to be the Texans at plus three.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I wanted to be at three and I

289
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Speaker 1: woke up it was still two and a half. That's

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Speaker 1: my concern. We're not gonna get to three. We both

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Speaker 1: know we like the Texans here. We can go through

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Speaker 1: the games like. We don't have to make the choice

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Speaker 1: right now. No fucking graphics yet, Tito, Okay, let's just

294
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Speaker 1: hold off. I'm not gonna make a decision yet. I'm

295
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Speaker 1: just putting out on the board that we're gonna have

296
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Speaker 1: to have a conversation about it. Here's a cool stat

297
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Speaker 1: from Evan C. J. Shroud and Dmico. Ryans took the

298
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Speaker 1: Texans to the playoff as a rookie QB and head

299
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Speaker 1: coach Combo since the NFL merger, That's happened four other times.

300
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Speaker 1: Andrew Luck, Chuck Bagano, Mark Sanchez, Rex Ryan, Matt Ryan,

301
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Speaker 1: Mike Smith remember Mike Smith from the Atlanta Falcons and

302
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Speaker 1: incredibly this what makes so cool? Joe Flacco and John

303
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Speaker 1: Harbaugh from the two thousand and eight Ravens. Isn't that cool?

304
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Speaker 2: Yeah? Just think that Harball has been in the leaks

305
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Speaker 2: sixteen years now. He's the longest ten year or is

306
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Speaker 2: it Tomlin? It's one of the.

307
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Speaker 1: Two, Tomlin, Tomlin's one year longer.

308
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Speaker 2: I think, Yeah, he's so Tomlin's seventeen. It's just like,

309
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Speaker 2: damn when you look how long that is, It's like,

310
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Speaker 2: that is crazy. They've been in the NFL that long

311
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Speaker 2: at this point.

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Speaker 1: Amazing. Look, we both like the Texans, we're going to

313
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Speaker 1: have to wait again. I wish it was at plus

314
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Speaker 1: three so we can make the foxhole, but according to

315
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Speaker 1: the rules imposed by Dictator Matt Mitchell, we have to

316
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Speaker 1: go with the number that's currently available. So it's making

317
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Speaker 1: us hesitant right now. Miami at Kansas City look huge

318
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Speaker 1: move in the past forty eight hours from three and

319
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Speaker 1: a half to four and a half. I think it's

320
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Speaker 1: because of two things. I think weather is playing an

321
00:16:38,280 --> 00:16:44,160
Speaker 1: outsized factor. Weather will be impactful in Kansas City. It

322
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Speaker 1: will be impactful in Buffalo, we know for a fact,

323
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Speaker 1: so that's going to be tricky. And I think it's

324
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Speaker 1: wreaking havoc with this point spread right now. And I

325
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Speaker 1: think people are are grappling with the Dolphins defense save

326
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Speaker 1: line pass rush issues. You you alluded to this in

327
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Speaker 1: sharp calls. Has it moved too much?

328
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Speaker 2: Yeah, And that's that's what everyone keeps saying to each other.

329
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Speaker 2: It's like, okay, the weather report. I mean, people want

330
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Speaker 2: it broken down it's they're saying it's gonna be minus five.

331
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Speaker 2: It's gonna feel like minus twenty four. We're gust up

332
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Speaker 2: to twenty nine miles per hour. And it's what is

333
00:17:22,840 --> 00:17:24,919
Speaker 2: it at eight pm? Or yeah, I think it's eight

334
00:17:24,960 --> 00:17:27,480
Speaker 2: pm Eastern kickoff, So it's a it's gonna be a

335
00:17:27,600 --> 00:17:33,480
Speaker 2: late start, cold windby gust. It's a big deal that

336
00:17:33,720 --> 00:17:36,200
Speaker 2: the Miami team is banged up on offensive. In fact,

337
00:17:36,240 --> 00:17:38,280
Speaker 2: that waddle on most art's out for a game where

338
00:17:38,880 --> 00:17:41,440
Speaker 2: you need everyone and that type of sitution is there, right,

339
00:17:41,520 --> 00:17:44,960
Speaker 2: It's like you need all your guys really, and you

340
00:17:45,000 --> 00:17:47,600
Speaker 2: know the Chiefs, we all know they're no juggernaut, but

341
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Speaker 2: it's like we all have the confidence in my homes.

342
00:17:50,320 --> 00:17:52,080
Speaker 2: He's been in these spotsfle he's played in this type

343
00:17:52,119 --> 00:17:54,679
Speaker 2: of weather at home. He knows how to handle it.

344
00:17:55,080 --> 00:17:57,679
Speaker 2: Where two, it really has no experience with this. Like

345
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Speaker 2: you know, Evan wrote about how he's face these type

346
00:18:01,240 --> 00:18:04,680
Speaker 2: of snaries a little bit in Buffalo. One game it

347
00:18:04,800 --> 00:18:07,960
Speaker 2: was absolutely terrible. Another game he actually played pretty decent in.

348
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Speaker 2: This is like insane though, Like to be outside and

349
00:18:12,200 --> 00:18:15,560
Speaker 2: minus twenty four degrees, Like I mean, take it from

350
00:18:15,560 --> 00:18:18,720
Speaker 2: someone who's become incredibly soft living in a tropical place.

351
00:18:19,000 --> 00:18:21,719
Speaker 2: It's forty degrees here in New Jersey. I am freezing,

352
00:18:22,119 --> 00:18:24,960
Speaker 2: like absolutely freeing. It's forty degrees. So it's gonna be

353
00:18:25,000 --> 00:18:27,800
Speaker 2: sixty degrees colder than it is right now, and I

354
00:18:27,840 --> 00:18:29,560
Speaker 2: can't really wrap my head around it. Where it's like

355
00:18:30,200 --> 00:18:32,760
Speaker 2: that is going to be just terrible for this Miami

356
00:18:32,760 --> 00:18:33,960
Speaker 2: guys who are just not gonna be used to where

357
00:18:33,960 --> 00:18:35,760
Speaker 2: the Chiefs guys really are. And that is a big deal.

358
00:18:36,160 --> 00:18:38,720
Speaker 2: And yeah, Evan just gave us a stat mahomes under

359
00:18:38,760 --> 00:18:41,919
Speaker 2: thirty five degrees. He's fourteen to four straight up, twelve

360
00:18:41,920 --> 00:18:46,560
Speaker 2: and six ats. So I mean, we know, we know

361
00:18:46,600 --> 00:18:48,520
Speaker 2: we went to back them here. So if people want

362
00:18:48,560 --> 00:18:50,159
Speaker 2: to follow my bet that I did just taking the

363
00:18:50,160 --> 00:18:52,879
Speaker 2: money line of the Bills and the Chiefs put it together,

364
00:18:52,920 --> 00:18:55,800
Speaker 2: it's I think minus one thirty five. It's like, I

365
00:18:55,920 --> 00:18:58,359
Speaker 2: just I like both those guys because of stats being

366
00:18:58,440 --> 00:19:02,000
Speaker 2: Chat already talked about where the Dolphins since twenty seventeen

367
00:19:02,080 --> 00:19:04,960
Speaker 2: when it's below forty degrees their own to nine straight

368
00:19:05,040 --> 00:19:09,159
Speaker 2: up Pittsburgh without Watt, Chad talked about it, they're one

369
00:19:09,200 --> 00:19:11,200
Speaker 2: and ten straight up, Like that's just a nice little

370
00:19:11,280 --> 00:19:15,880
Speaker 2: pairing there for what we expect to be games very

371
00:19:15,880 --> 00:19:18,840
Speaker 2: affected by weather in this Chiefs game, like Chad just said,

372
00:19:18,840 --> 00:19:21,400
Speaker 2: we want to be on Miami here, it's like, it's

373
00:19:21,400 --> 00:19:23,280
Speaker 2: hard to bet this though, when we don't know if

374
00:19:23,320 --> 00:19:25,879
Speaker 2: most's gonna play, like who is playing for Miami, and

375
00:19:25,920 --> 00:19:27,680
Speaker 2: it's hard to put your money down. And I don't

376
00:19:27,680 --> 00:19:29,960
Speaker 2: feel their need to rush to do it. Like me

377
00:19:29,960 --> 00:19:31,439
Speaker 2: and Chad, we'd like to beat the number, get the

378
00:19:31,440 --> 00:19:33,520
Speaker 2: best of the number. During the regular season, you could

379
00:19:33,520 --> 00:19:35,760
Speaker 2: be a lot more patient, especially if you're betting the

380
00:19:35,880 --> 00:19:38,200
Speaker 2: Dolphins that's getting no money, like Chad just talked about,

381
00:19:38,280 --> 00:19:43,040
Speaker 2: Like no one's really betting Miami right now, so I

382
00:19:43,080 --> 00:19:45,119
Speaker 2: know the pros are gonna like it, like every probably

383
00:19:45,119 --> 00:19:46,800
Speaker 2: talked you. For the most part, they agree with me

384
00:19:46,800 --> 00:19:49,240
Speaker 2: and Chad. This numbers probably moved too much. They want

385
00:19:49,280 --> 00:19:50,959
Speaker 2: to take Miami, but they have the same view as us.

386
00:19:51,000 --> 00:19:54,160
Speaker 2: It's like, what's the rush, Like if we're lucky, if

387
00:19:54,440 --> 00:19:57,280
Speaker 2: this number keeps getting pushed up and money keeps pointing

388
00:19:57,280 --> 00:20:00,280
Speaker 2: on the Chiefs, could we see a six could across

389
00:20:00,320 --> 00:20:01,760
Speaker 2: those key numbers of five and a half and get

390
00:20:01,760 --> 00:20:04,200
Speaker 2: the six. I don't know, but I'm happy to wait.

391
00:20:04,320 --> 00:20:06,120
Speaker 2: Like this game doesn't kick off, like we said, until

392
00:20:06,119 --> 00:20:09,399
Speaker 2: eight o'clock Saturdays, So just no, Me and Chatter are

393
00:20:09,400 --> 00:20:12,120
Speaker 2: both gonna be on Miami. The value is totally gone

394
00:20:12,119 --> 00:20:14,159
Speaker 2: from the Chiefs. So I would not bet the Chiefs now.

395
00:20:14,160 --> 00:20:15,399
Speaker 2: If you're looking at the four and a half, I

396
00:20:15,440 --> 00:20:17,760
Speaker 2: just think the numbers move too much and you've already

397
00:20:17,760 --> 00:20:19,440
Speaker 2: missed the best of the number for this Chiefs team.

398
00:20:19,840 --> 00:20:22,239
Speaker 1: Well, look, this is one of those games where I

399
00:20:22,400 --> 00:20:27,000
Speaker 1: do feel like the Chiefs are getting a little bit

400
00:20:27,040 --> 00:20:30,639
Speaker 1: of the benefit of the doubt because of their legacy

401
00:20:30,840 --> 00:20:35,600
Speaker 1: and because of Patrick Mahomes. They have two viable pass catchers,

402
00:20:36,000 --> 00:20:40,960
Speaker 1: Rashi Rice and Travis Kelcey. And you can expect the

403
00:20:41,040 --> 00:20:45,399
Speaker 1: Miami Dolphins to lock down Rashi Rice with Jalen Ramsey.

404
00:20:45,560 --> 00:20:49,680
Speaker 1: They just will, and then they will double cover Travis Kelcey.

405
00:20:49,920 --> 00:20:52,119
Speaker 1: And then Patrick Mahomes is going to find himself in

406
00:20:52,160 --> 00:20:55,560
Speaker 1: the same position he's been in for the past eighteen games.

407
00:20:55,720 --> 00:20:58,560
Speaker 1: Seventeen games. He's not gonna have guys he can throw to.

408
00:20:59,119 --> 00:21:03,480
Speaker 1: Guys are going to drop passes in miserable weather. The

409
00:21:03,600 --> 00:21:07,439
Speaker 1: under is interesting to me here. I'm surprised it hasn't

410
00:21:07,480 --> 00:21:12,040
Speaker 1: really moved, nah from forty four. To me, I've already

411
00:21:12,080 --> 00:21:15,560
Speaker 1: played the under in the Texans and the Browns game.

412
00:21:16,440 --> 00:21:20,240
Speaker 1: It is a luck under this week. This also feels

413
00:21:20,320 --> 00:21:24,359
Speaker 1: like an under to me. The Chiefs have a hard

414
00:21:24,400 --> 00:21:27,880
Speaker 1: time scoring more than three touchdowns in a game, so

415
00:21:28,080 --> 00:21:30,720
Speaker 1: why would I feel confident with the same set of

416
00:21:30,760 --> 00:21:34,000
Speaker 1: receivers in bad weather? And also, by the way, the

417
00:21:34,000 --> 00:21:37,960
Speaker 1: best defense Patrick Mahomes has ever played with against a

418
00:21:38,040 --> 00:21:42,160
Speaker 1: team that their best option is going to be at

419
00:21:42,280 --> 00:21:45,880
Speaker 1: least running Devin Hm and Raheem Moster if he plays,

420
00:21:45,880 --> 00:21:46,360
Speaker 1: which he may.

421
00:21:47,000 --> 00:21:49,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, and the fact that they teams both already played

422
00:21:49,280 --> 00:21:51,719
Speaker 2: each other like also ads into that where I'm right

423
00:21:51,760 --> 00:21:54,480
Speaker 2: there with you. I really like the under, but as

424
00:21:55,160 --> 00:21:58,240
Speaker 2: you noticed, it hadn't really moved. Like Evan pum the chat,

425
00:21:58,280 --> 00:22:00,840
Speaker 2: it moved to forty two and a half. Professional money

426
00:22:00,840 --> 00:22:02,680
Speaker 2: came back in because it moved too much, they moved

427
00:22:02,680 --> 00:22:05,600
Speaker 2: it back to forty four. I like it at forty four, though,

428
00:22:05,640 --> 00:22:07,359
Speaker 2: I'm with you, like, I've already bet this a couple

429
00:22:07,400 --> 00:22:09,560
Speaker 2: of times now because I kept thinking what you just said.

430
00:22:09,560 --> 00:22:11,159
Speaker 2: I thought it was going to keep dropping because we

431
00:22:11,240 --> 00:22:14,680
Speaker 2: keep getting reports of stronger wins and you know, shout

432
00:22:14,680 --> 00:22:16,760
Speaker 2: out to our guy PG, who does a ton of

433
00:22:16,760 --> 00:22:19,280
Speaker 2: work for those pounds of scenes at action. He is

434
00:22:19,320 --> 00:22:21,560
Speaker 2: obsessed with win unders, like in our chats are a

435
00:22:21,600 --> 00:22:24,320
Speaker 2: little slack set. All he talks about are these win unders,

436
00:22:24,359 --> 00:22:25,959
Speaker 2: and this is definitely one of these games popping right

437
00:22:26,000 --> 00:22:28,359
Speaker 2: now where you know, win gust up to thirty miles

438
00:22:28,400 --> 00:22:30,720
Speaker 2: per hour in that bowl of a stadium. That's a

439
00:22:30,720 --> 00:22:33,280
Speaker 2: big deal to try to pass, especially these two teams

440
00:22:33,320 --> 00:22:36,399
Speaker 2: that you know they want to pass the ball, but

441
00:22:37,119 --> 00:22:38,480
Speaker 2: I don't think they're going to be able to, like

442
00:22:38,560 --> 00:22:40,560
Speaker 2: Chad I just talked about. So I already wanted to

443
00:22:40,560 --> 00:22:42,720
Speaker 2: take the under in this one because I do think

444
00:22:43,119 --> 00:22:45,560
Speaker 2: between the injuries out to Miami and the struggles of

445
00:22:45,560 --> 00:22:48,200
Speaker 2: the Chiefs, I already liked the under here. But now

446
00:22:48,200 --> 00:22:51,560
Speaker 2: you factor in this weather, I definitely feel more comfortable

447
00:22:51,560 --> 00:22:53,280
Speaker 2: betting this under than any other one this week.

448
00:22:53,359 --> 00:22:55,200
Speaker 1: If you can find a forty four and a half,

449
00:22:55,760 --> 00:22:59,680
Speaker 1: I would recommend rabbing it because it's harder and harder

450
00:22:59,680 --> 00:23:02,560
Speaker 1: to find a reason to bet one side or the

451
00:23:02,600 --> 00:23:06,040
Speaker 1: other in this game. Speaking of weather, I may have

452
00:23:06,040 --> 00:23:08,000
Speaker 1: pulled the trigger too early. I may not have gotten

453
00:23:08,040 --> 00:23:11,439
Speaker 1: the weather report from Matt Mitchell Dennis in of the

454
00:23:11,480 --> 00:23:14,439
Speaker 1: Paris of Western New York that I needed before I

455
00:23:14,520 --> 00:23:18,720
Speaker 1: bet Buffalo minus ten is my EXAC decision. It did

456
00:23:18,760 --> 00:23:23,000
Speaker 1: dip below for ten for a hot minute, very very

457
00:23:23,720 --> 00:23:28,639
Speaker 1: unpredictable weather in this game. Without the weather, it just

458
00:23:28,640 --> 00:23:31,679
Speaker 1: feels like a mismatch. And I had asked Evan to

459
00:23:31,720 --> 00:23:34,480
Speaker 1: help me out with some double digit underdogs because I

460
00:23:34,480 --> 00:23:39,280
Speaker 1: feel like double digit underdogs as a playoff bet are

461
00:23:39,520 --> 00:23:42,680
Speaker 1: a bad bet. And double digit underdogs in the wild

462
00:23:42,680 --> 00:23:45,320
Speaker 1: card round two and seven against the spread the past

463
00:23:45,359 --> 00:23:48,760
Speaker 1: twenty years, double digit underdogs four and eleven against the

464
00:23:48,800 --> 00:23:53,280
Speaker 1: spread in the playoffs since twenty eleven, So my instincts

465
00:23:53,280 --> 00:23:56,840
Speaker 1: are right, Like you're getting Mason Rudolph in his first

466
00:23:56,840 --> 00:24:01,600
Speaker 1: playoff game on the road in bad conditions without his

467
00:24:01,680 --> 00:24:05,199
Speaker 1: best defensive player, So of course I want to pound

468
00:24:05,440 --> 00:24:09,399
Speaker 1: the Bills. I did, maybe too early because the weather

469
00:24:09,520 --> 00:24:12,720
Speaker 1: may recap it, but then again maybe it won't matter,

470
00:24:12,960 --> 00:24:15,959
Speaker 1: Like maybe the Bills get up twenty to nothing, and

471
00:24:16,160 --> 00:24:17,040
Speaker 1: that's kind of the game.

472
00:24:17,480 --> 00:24:22,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's just the fear, is of course that the Bills.

473
00:24:22,680 --> 00:24:25,320
Speaker 2: I mean, they if this was indoors, Like Matt keeps

474
00:24:25,320 --> 00:24:27,679
Speaker 2: talking about the Carrier Dome, Like this is a no brainer.

475
00:24:27,720 --> 00:24:30,960
Speaker 2: I'm right there with you. They would run circles around

476
00:24:30,960 --> 00:24:34,439
Speaker 2: this Pittsburgh team. But if it's going to be I mean,

477
00:24:34,640 --> 00:24:38,280
Speaker 2: like I got my app open here, they're saying win

478
00:24:38,440 --> 00:24:41,040
Speaker 2: gust of forty seven miles per hour. Oh yeah, that's

479
00:24:41,119 --> 00:24:46,040
Speaker 2: terrible minus one degrees. Like just an absolute nightmare to

480
00:24:46,080 --> 00:24:48,879
Speaker 2: play in. And Pittsburgh has a two headed monster. Like

481
00:24:49,359 --> 00:24:52,560
Speaker 2: their running style is what's really you know, it's great

482
00:24:52,600 --> 00:24:55,240
Speaker 2: as Mason Ruis played these last couple of weeks, it

483
00:24:55,320 --> 00:24:57,400
Speaker 2: really has been. The running game has really picked up

484
00:24:57,520 --> 00:24:59,359
Speaker 2: these last couple of weeks for that team since they

485
00:24:59,359 --> 00:25:02,360
Speaker 2: made a change in obviously their identity change a lot

486
00:25:02,400 --> 00:25:06,080
Speaker 2: at Pittsburgh. It stinks Riorty had bet this over obviously

487
00:25:06,200 --> 00:25:08,760
Speaker 2: factor in these kind of weather scenario. It's just like, man,

488
00:25:08,840 --> 00:25:12,119
Speaker 2: this is not ideal. Like the Bills can run the ball,

489
00:25:12,280 --> 00:25:14,800
Speaker 2: and Josh Allen's been cool with taking a step back

490
00:25:14,840 --> 00:25:17,480
Speaker 2: and letting them do that, right, like changing their offense,

491
00:25:17,560 --> 00:25:20,880
Speaker 2: But how can we predict you know, if it's third

492
00:25:20,880 --> 00:25:22,800
Speaker 2: and five, does that mean we're dead? Because they can't

493
00:25:22,800 --> 00:25:24,560
Speaker 2: throw the pup five or six yards in the air.

494
00:25:24,600 --> 00:25:27,040
Speaker 2: Because this wind right now, it's it is tough where

495
00:25:27,080 --> 00:25:29,160
Speaker 2: it's like I don't want to take you to tell

496
00:25:29,200 --> 00:25:31,040
Speaker 2: you to take a total or take you tell you

497
00:25:31,080 --> 00:25:33,520
Speaker 2: to take a big favorite here because it's it's so unknown.

498
00:25:33,600 --> 00:25:35,160
Speaker 2: So once again, if you want to do that Bill's

499
00:25:35,200 --> 00:25:37,480
Speaker 2: money line on the Chiefs money line, I just don't

500
00:25:37,480 --> 00:25:39,200
Speaker 2: see us inn aara where the Bills lose this game

501
00:25:39,280 --> 00:25:42,720
Speaker 2: still even with such bad weather. It's like the Bills

502
00:25:42,800 --> 00:25:45,000
Speaker 2: Josh Allen, he's played in this multiple times now. He

503
00:25:45,119 --> 00:25:47,119
Speaker 2: knows how to play in this kind of weather and

504
00:25:47,119 --> 00:25:49,679
Speaker 2: how to play, you know, within his means with this

505
00:25:49,760 --> 00:25:52,960
Speaker 2: team and running the ball. And Josh Allen, if you

506
00:25:53,000 --> 00:25:54,480
Speaker 2: go back and watch the tape on these kind of games,

507
00:25:54,560 --> 00:25:56,239
Speaker 2: he likes to run it too, right, Like he's more

508
00:25:56,280 --> 00:25:58,280
Speaker 2: than happy to pull it down and run it. Mason

509
00:25:58,359 --> 00:26:00,480
Speaker 2: Rudolph is not the same man. This guy. I cannot

510
00:26:00,520 --> 00:26:02,680
Speaker 2: run the ball like that. So obviously it's a big

511
00:26:02,680 --> 00:26:05,159
Speaker 2: advantage of that Bill's team compared to the quarterback position.

512
00:26:05,280 --> 00:26:09,280
Speaker 2: But yeah, chat, it stinks where I wanted to come

513
00:26:09,320 --> 00:26:11,240
Speaker 2: around on your Bills pick because of everything we just

514
00:26:11,280 --> 00:26:13,639
Speaker 2: talked about, Like you can take big favorites, especially in

515
00:26:13,640 --> 00:26:17,000
Speaker 2: the wildcard round and it's profitable, but the weather just

516
00:26:17,040 --> 00:26:19,919
Speaker 2: throws a wrench in all of it. It's like you

517
00:26:20,000 --> 00:26:21,760
Speaker 2: kind of got to thigure your model out now, because

518
00:26:22,240 --> 00:26:24,679
Speaker 2: how can any model predict how a certain team's going

519
00:26:24,720 --> 00:26:28,200
Speaker 2: to play in a certain style of weather. So it's

520
00:26:29,040 --> 00:26:33,399
Speaker 2: it's a tough one. But I think by by Saturday,

521
00:26:34,320 --> 00:26:38,320
Speaker 2: I mean Sunday morning. The hope is that the storm

522
00:26:38,359 --> 00:26:40,879
Speaker 2: blows off and we have a good game. But what

523
00:26:40,920 --> 00:26:42,680
Speaker 2: they're predicting right now is what I just told you people.

524
00:26:42,680 --> 00:26:44,480
Speaker 2: They're stand there's gonna be forty seven per hour gust

525
00:26:44,680 --> 00:26:46,600
Speaker 2: like that's what me and Chad have to go off of.

526
00:26:46,720 --> 00:26:48,800
Speaker 2: So if you don't want to bet this game, if

527
00:26:48,840 --> 00:26:50,200
Speaker 2: you want to set it out, or if you're already

528
00:26:50,240 --> 00:26:52,879
Speaker 2: invested like me and Chad, just let it ride. I'm

529
00:26:52,920 --> 00:26:54,520
Speaker 2: not buying on my position, but I'm not going to

530
00:26:54,560 --> 00:26:56,320
Speaker 2: be putting more money into this one is we just

531
00:26:56,359 --> 00:26:57,840
Speaker 2: don't know what the deal is going to be. So

532
00:26:58,520 --> 00:27:00,000
Speaker 2: this is definitely the game. If you don't have been

533
00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:04,119
Speaker 2: to it, wake up Sunday morning watch convinced me, go

534
00:27:04,240 --> 00:27:06,480
Speaker 2: make your bets. Don't need to force a bet on

535
00:27:06,520 --> 00:27:07,560
Speaker 2: this one yet until you know more.

536
00:27:08,960 --> 00:27:14,199
Speaker 1: I am gonna love watching and sweating this game, like

537
00:27:14,440 --> 00:27:18,000
Speaker 1: every point is going to be at a premium. And

538
00:27:18,080 --> 00:27:20,600
Speaker 1: I do think there's so many people who are looking

539
00:27:20,680 --> 00:27:24,000
Speaker 1: at this and thinking, oh, Mason Rudolph was great in

540
00:27:24,040 --> 00:27:28,120
Speaker 1: a torrential downpour against the Baltimore Ravens. He was eighteen

541
00:27:28,160 --> 00:27:30,439
Speaker 1: of twenty and you know they won the game and

542
00:27:30,480 --> 00:27:33,200
Speaker 1: they got into the playoffs. Yeah, that is a different

543
00:27:33,280 --> 00:27:38,959
Speaker 1: condition with a second string defense predominantly versus being in

544
00:27:39,040 --> 00:27:43,240
Speaker 1: Buffalo with just dude. I've been in these games. I've

545
00:27:43,320 --> 00:27:49,240
Speaker 1: sat in these games as a fan, and it is excruciating.

546
00:27:50,000 --> 00:27:51,919
Speaker 1: I would now want to be playing in one of

547
00:27:51,920 --> 00:27:54,600
Speaker 1: those games. It's going to be some lake effect snow.

548
00:27:54,720 --> 00:27:57,760
Speaker 1: It's gonna be fun. Green Bay at Dallas. Look, we

549
00:27:57,760 --> 00:28:00,280
Speaker 1: were talking about this game on Sunday night. It was

550
00:28:00,280 --> 00:28:02,800
Speaker 1: seven and a half. We didn't understand the move. We

551
00:28:02,840 --> 00:28:05,119
Speaker 1: talked about it on Tuesday. It was seven and a half.

552
00:28:05,440 --> 00:28:08,840
Speaker 1: We didn't understand why it hadn't come down. I'll tell

553
00:28:08,840 --> 00:28:10,720
Speaker 1: you right now. This morning, at seven and a half,

554
00:28:10,760 --> 00:28:12,879
Speaker 1: I bit the bullet. I started to see some of

555
00:28:12,880 --> 00:28:16,080
Speaker 1: the Jews moving. I figured like it would finally move

556
00:28:16,200 --> 00:28:19,400
Speaker 1: to seven. I couldn't find any reason not to bet

557
00:28:19,440 --> 00:28:21,160
Speaker 1: Green Bay in this game.

558
00:28:22,560 --> 00:28:24,760
Speaker 2: Big balls better the week.

559
00:28:24,680 --> 00:28:33,040
Speaker 1: Big ball better the week. Now we Bay Packers seven

560
00:28:33,080 --> 00:28:36,560
Speaker 1: and a half against the Dallas Cowboys.

561
00:28:36,400 --> 00:28:38,840
Speaker 2: Chad, I mean you both both knew we love this one.

562
00:28:38,880 --> 00:28:41,800
Speaker 2: We're gonna end up all this one, like Chad's talking about,

563
00:28:41,800 --> 00:28:43,560
Speaker 2: one of the most public books out there has already

564
00:28:43,560 --> 00:28:46,600
Speaker 2: moved this to minus one twenty five on green Bay

565
00:28:46,680 --> 00:28:49,040
Speaker 2: side at this number, So Chad's not wrong if you

566
00:28:49,080 --> 00:28:50,960
Speaker 2: want to grab Green Bay. It seems like this is

567
00:28:50,960 --> 00:28:53,640
Speaker 2: trending towards the seven. Go get to seven and a half.

568
00:28:54,440 --> 00:28:56,200
Speaker 2: I'm not gonna lie you chat. I was nervous because

569
00:28:56,200 --> 00:28:58,680
Speaker 2: what we talked about it it's that QB making us

570
00:28:58,720 --> 00:29:01,240
Speaker 2: first start against a veteran quarterback who's been there before,

571
00:29:01,840 --> 00:29:03,840
Speaker 2: which you know as all the crap I like to

572
00:29:03,840 --> 00:29:06,640
Speaker 2: give to Dak. You know he's been to multiple playoff appearances,

573
00:29:06,640 --> 00:29:08,800
Speaker 2: he's won multip playoff games. At this point, he knows

574
00:29:08,840 --> 00:29:11,200
Speaker 2: the deal. But shout out to my man Evan. But

575
00:29:11,360 --> 00:29:15,160
Speaker 2: in his article Dak at home, we fade, we fade,

576
00:29:15,240 --> 00:29:18,040
Speaker 2: we fade. He's never covered at home in the playoffs.

577
00:29:18,360 --> 00:29:21,520
Speaker 2: And if he loses this one, I believe from Evan

578
00:29:21,560 --> 00:29:23,880
Speaker 2: he would break Carson Palmer's record or would he tie it?

579
00:29:24,200 --> 00:29:26,680
Speaker 2: And oh and four against the spread in the playoffs

580
00:29:26,680 --> 00:29:29,760
Speaker 2: at home, so too big of a number. It feels

581
00:29:29,800 --> 00:29:35,600
Speaker 2: like the books are protecting against teasers and parlays and yeah,

582
00:29:35,720 --> 00:29:38,880
Speaker 2: just going through our action app right now on the

583
00:29:38,960 --> 00:29:42,520
Speaker 2: money line, So again, Dallas is minus one sixty minus

584
00:29:42,560 --> 00:29:44,960
Speaker 2: one seventy on the money line. Seventy one percent of

585
00:29:45,000 --> 00:29:47,200
Speaker 2: the money, eighty percent of the bets right now in

586
00:29:47,280 --> 00:29:50,120
Speaker 2: Dallas's money line. So that lets you, you know, exactly know

587
00:29:50,160 --> 00:29:52,120
Speaker 2: where the public is at, like they love them in

588
00:29:52,160 --> 00:29:55,320
Speaker 2: this spot. They're paying this, everyone's paying this with the bills,

589
00:29:55,400 --> 00:29:57,080
Speaker 2: right this is like the chalk bet of the week.

590
00:29:57,480 --> 00:30:00,320
Speaker 2: Take the Bills, take Dallas the two biggest, or to

591
00:30:00,320 --> 00:30:03,720
Speaker 2: put them together on the money line. I just love

592
00:30:03,800 --> 00:30:06,280
Speaker 2: Green Bay here. They're all live dog like. Everything about

593
00:30:06,320 --> 00:30:08,720
Speaker 2: this feels like a live dog. JAD talking about Jordan

594
00:30:08,800 --> 00:30:11,800
Speaker 2: Love against pressure and the blitz. He's outstanding. You know

595
00:30:11,800 --> 00:30:13,840
Speaker 2: who's had injuries to their defense that doesn't get talked

596
00:30:13,880 --> 00:30:16,440
Speaker 2: about enough. This Dallas team, a Dallas team that teams

597
00:30:16,440 --> 00:30:18,360
Speaker 2: have been able to move the ball on here towards

598
00:30:18,400 --> 00:30:20,080
Speaker 2: the end of the season because of those injuries. So

599
00:30:21,600 --> 00:30:25,320
Speaker 2: such a big number like this indoors perfect condition. Yeah,

600
00:30:25,400 --> 00:30:27,640
Speaker 2: we know the deal. Dallas is gonna put up points, right,

601
00:30:27,680 --> 00:30:30,920
Speaker 2: that's ceedee Lamb. Dak Combo probably the best of football

602
00:30:30,960 --> 00:30:32,400
Speaker 2: this yeason. I mean, I know Tyreek Hill had the

603
00:30:32,440 --> 00:30:36,560
Speaker 2: record with Tua, but it's like, anytime Dak needs those yards,

604
00:30:36,600 --> 00:30:39,240
Speaker 2: doesn't matter if CD's doubled, He's gonna find seed and

605
00:30:39,240 --> 00:30:41,600
Speaker 2: it's gonna probably work out for him. So we totally

606
00:30:41,640 --> 00:30:43,720
Speaker 2: get that going into this. I just feel like we're

607
00:30:43,760 --> 00:30:45,840
Speaker 2: live the entire game. Even if we were down twenty

608
00:30:45,840 --> 00:30:47,960
Speaker 2: one to nothing, Chad, I'm still gonna be doing the

609
00:30:47,960 --> 00:30:50,040
Speaker 2: math in my head of like, Okay, we can still

610
00:30:50,080 --> 00:30:51,480
Speaker 2: get there because we have the seven and a half.

611
00:30:51,520 --> 00:30:54,560
Speaker 2: So feel comfortable taking this big of a number on

612
00:30:54,640 --> 00:30:57,080
Speaker 2: our first time starter and Jordan Love and the playoffs,

613
00:30:57,080 --> 00:30:59,120
Speaker 2: and we know the deal. They're the youngest team in

614
00:30:59,160 --> 00:31:02,560
Speaker 2: the playoffs this year. We could easily get rolled in

615
00:31:02,560 --> 00:31:05,360
Speaker 2: this game just because that inexperienced. But I just think

616
00:31:05,440 --> 00:31:07,400
Speaker 2: Laflora has been coaching at such a higher level and

617
00:31:07,480 --> 00:31:09,400
Speaker 2: Jordan Loves is playing at such a high level. I

618
00:31:09,400 --> 00:31:11,160
Speaker 2: don't see them letting this game get away from I

619
00:31:11,160 --> 00:31:13,480
Speaker 2: just always see them being in it, So feel really

620
00:31:13,520 --> 00:31:14,800
Speaker 2: confident taking the seven and a half.

621
00:31:14,840 --> 00:31:17,640
Speaker 1: Check a couple keys that you that you pointed out

622
00:31:17,680 --> 00:31:19,320
Speaker 1: that I just want to expand on a little bit.

623
00:31:19,600 --> 00:31:22,600
Speaker 1: Jordan Love and I listened to Raybond and Stuckey in

624
00:31:22,600 --> 00:31:25,760
Speaker 1: the Action Network podcast this morning and they were going

625
00:31:25,800 --> 00:31:28,920
Speaker 1: through their Sunday six pack and they both loved Green

626
00:31:28,920 --> 00:31:33,360
Speaker 1: Bay plus seven and a half, and Raybond pointed out

627
00:31:33,440 --> 00:31:39,240
Speaker 1: that since November, Jordan Love sixty nine percent completion percentage,

628
00:31:39,280 --> 00:31:42,560
Speaker 1: two hundred and sixty seven yards passing yards per game,

629
00:31:42,600 --> 00:31:45,760
Speaker 1: seven yards per attempt, twenty one to three touchdown to

630
00:31:45,800 --> 00:31:52,320
Speaker 1: interception ratio, passer rating against man versus zone, and the

631
00:31:52,360 --> 00:31:59,000
Speaker 1: Cowboys love to play man thirteen points better. So and

632
00:31:59,040 --> 00:32:03,960
Speaker 1: you also pointed out their pass rush. Everyone thinks, Okay,

633
00:32:04,000 --> 00:32:07,920
Speaker 1: Micah parsons, their password rush has actually been kind of

634
00:32:08,000 --> 00:32:09,680
Speaker 1: middle of the road because they've had a lot of

635
00:32:09,720 --> 00:32:12,720
Speaker 1: injuries and so they haven't been nearly as good. They're like,

636
00:32:14,200 --> 00:32:16,320
Speaker 1: you know, Matt Mitchell likes to say, all says a

637
00:32:16,440 --> 00:32:20,720
Speaker 1: low steak kind of defense, right, because you've got Bland

638
00:32:20,800 --> 00:32:24,880
Speaker 1: in the secondary making these incredible interceptions and getting all

639
00:32:24,920 --> 00:32:27,880
Speaker 1: these pick sixes and you've got Micah Parsons who had

640
00:32:27,920 --> 00:32:30,400
Speaker 1: another sack over the weekend and instead a career high

641
00:32:30,480 --> 00:32:36,360
Speaker 1: for sacks this season. But in between those two there's

642
00:32:36,440 --> 00:32:39,560
Speaker 1: a lot of room to maneuver. And I think we

643
00:32:39,720 --> 00:32:43,480
Speaker 1: start liking the Packers a little bit more here. And

644
00:32:43,600 --> 00:32:47,040
Speaker 1: also the other thing you mentioned, you mentioned the floor

645
00:32:47,800 --> 00:32:50,640
Speaker 1: having a great season. Look at what this guy has

646
00:32:50,720 --> 00:32:55,160
Speaker 1: done with this roster that is so young and not

647
00:32:55,240 --> 00:32:57,680
Speaker 1: even having all of them, Like how often has Wigs

648
00:32:57,720 --> 00:32:59,760
Speaker 1: been out? How often has Jaden Reid been out? Hoff

649
00:33:00,120 --> 00:33:02,720
Speaker 1: Christian Watson been out? And he has found a way

650
00:33:02,760 --> 00:33:06,440
Speaker 1: to get Jordan Love to improve every single week. Testament

651
00:33:06,480 --> 00:33:08,560
Speaker 1: to him going against a guy Mike McCarthy who, look,

652
00:33:08,680 --> 00:33:11,400
Speaker 1: let's face it, he's just not a very good coach.

653
00:33:11,960 --> 00:33:14,440
Speaker 1: Like he's a good play caller, he's not good at

654
00:33:14,480 --> 00:33:17,480
Speaker 1: managing the clock. He doesn't make great decisions in game.

655
00:33:17,880 --> 00:33:20,240
Speaker 1: That has cost the Cowboys year and year out in

656
00:33:20,240 --> 00:33:22,320
Speaker 1: the playoffs. I think it will cost him again in

657
00:33:22,440 --> 00:33:26,760
Speaker 1: these playoffs. You bet on this happening in the playoffs,

658
00:33:26,840 --> 00:33:29,200
Speaker 1: So go pack Go.

659
00:33:31,000 --> 00:33:32,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, And like I want people understand, if this number

660
00:33:32,920 --> 00:33:36,480
Speaker 2: was three four, I could be convinced to take the

661
00:33:36,520 --> 00:33:39,960
Speaker 2: Cowboys here, but me and Chad always knows there's always

662
00:33:40,000 --> 00:33:41,800
Speaker 2: going to be free extra points on the Cowboys because

663
00:33:41,800 --> 00:33:43,840
Speaker 2: there's such a public team. And it feels like here

664
00:33:43,880 --> 00:33:46,280
Speaker 2: this has been bumped up way too much. Like the books,

665
00:33:46,680 --> 00:33:48,080
Speaker 2: keep it a seven and a half. I just will

666
00:33:48,120 --> 00:33:50,880
Speaker 2: never get it. And you know, we'll obviously look like

667
00:33:51,160 --> 00:33:54,200
Speaker 2: geniuses or idiots come Sunday, but this does feel like

668
00:33:54,200 --> 00:33:56,280
Speaker 2: they hung a bad number and they're gonna get punished

669
00:33:56,280 --> 00:33:56,440
Speaker 2: for it.

670
00:33:57,160 --> 00:34:00,720
Speaker 1: Look, I'm just really glad that the Packers as a

671
00:34:00,800 --> 00:34:04,800
Speaker 1: franchise found a quarterback because it had been a long

672
00:34:04,880 --> 00:34:08,360
Speaker 1: time since they really had someone to step in and

673
00:34:08,520 --> 00:34:11,120
Speaker 1: play at the level that Jordan Love is playing at.

674
00:34:11,160 --> 00:34:12,440
Speaker 1: Good Good for those fans.

675
00:34:12,280 --> 00:34:15,520
Speaker 2: Because don't panic yet, Chad. Wait, wait for a team

676
00:34:15,640 --> 00:34:18,000
Speaker 2: to get an off season to build up film against

677
00:34:18,080 --> 00:34:19,839
Speaker 2: Jordan Love, and we'll see how he does next year.

678
00:34:20,120 --> 00:34:23,640
Speaker 1: They really deserve you know, that transition time was just

679
00:34:23,719 --> 00:34:26,759
Speaker 1: too hard for them. For eight weeks they had to

680
00:34:26,840 --> 00:34:29,680
Speaker 1: panic Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions. This was your

681
00:34:29,760 --> 00:34:32,160
Speaker 1: Simon says, Rams were at four, Rams were at three

682
00:34:32,200 --> 00:34:34,160
Speaker 1: and a half. You said, Simon says, get it at

683
00:34:34,200 --> 00:34:37,080
Speaker 1: three and a half. At three, it's a pass, which

684
00:34:37,120 --> 00:34:39,640
Speaker 1: is why you made it your Simon says, here's a

685
00:34:39,680 --> 00:34:41,279
Speaker 1: stat that haven't had the other day that I still

686
00:34:41,360 --> 00:34:43,960
Speaker 1: love home teams who missed the playoffs the prior year.

687
00:34:44,080 --> 00:34:46,600
Speaker 1: So that's the Lions thirty and forty nine against the

688
00:34:46,600 --> 00:34:48,440
Speaker 1: spreading the playoffs over the last twenty years, So that

689
00:34:48,760 --> 00:34:51,479
Speaker 1: is the Lions. It's also the Texans when those teams

690
00:34:51,520 --> 00:34:54,920
Speaker 1: are favorites. That is just the Lions. They are nineteen

691
00:34:55,000 --> 00:34:57,200
Speaker 1: and forty thirty two percent against the spread the past

692
00:34:57,239 --> 00:34:59,960
Speaker 1: twenty years. So not much more to say about that.

693
00:35:00,040 --> 00:35:04,440
Speaker 1: It's a it's a pass to me. At this number, I'd.

694
00:35:04,280 --> 00:35:06,200
Speaker 2: Still take the three. It's such a key number. But

695
00:35:06,640 --> 00:35:09,080
Speaker 2: we don't play for pushes here. If you missed the

696
00:35:09,200 --> 00:35:10,440
Speaker 2: three and a half, you want to be part of

697
00:35:10,480 --> 00:35:13,160
Speaker 2: the party, why not take the Rams money line? Like

698
00:35:13,280 --> 00:35:15,200
Speaker 2: you're already here, you might as well take it. You

699
00:35:15,280 --> 00:35:17,160
Speaker 2: missed the three and a half, you don't want to

700
00:35:17,239 --> 00:35:19,440
Speaker 2: live with a push, just grab the money line. Like

701
00:35:19,520 --> 00:35:22,279
Speaker 2: this just feels like a game that it's gonna go

702
00:35:22,400 --> 00:35:25,600
Speaker 2: down to me, it's gonna keep going down. Like a

703
00:35:25,680 --> 00:35:27,680
Speaker 2: couple of books around here in New Jersey that went

704
00:35:27,760 --> 00:35:30,080
Speaker 2: to two of them had that at two and a half,

705
00:35:30,120 --> 00:35:32,759
Speaker 2: which I was shocked to see. So the books, I

706
00:35:32,880 --> 00:35:35,520
Speaker 2: think usually when I want to take a position, they

707
00:35:35,600 --> 00:35:37,439
Speaker 2: usually they wouldn't move it that much because they would

708
00:35:37,440 --> 00:35:39,239
Speaker 2: actually believe in Detroit. But I think they're like the

709
00:35:39,280 --> 00:35:41,960
Speaker 2: most proser where it's like that'llo port injury is a

710
00:35:42,000 --> 00:35:44,520
Speaker 2: big deal, and I do think he's worth half a point,

711
00:35:44,560 --> 00:35:46,600
Speaker 2: which is crazy to say because he's a rookie tight end,

712
00:35:47,040 --> 00:35:49,000
Speaker 2: but he's been so important. I mean, Chad talked about it.

713
00:35:49,200 --> 00:35:51,680
Speaker 2: He's their number two received, number two receiver this season

714
00:35:51,719 --> 00:35:54,719
Speaker 2: on third down plays, So I'm on, Sam Brown is incredible.

715
00:35:55,120 --> 00:35:56,960
Speaker 2: That's a big deal. Now you can really shift her

716
00:35:57,000 --> 00:35:59,160
Speaker 2: coverage to him. You don't need to worry about this

717
00:35:59,360 --> 00:36:04,919
Speaker 2: outstanding tight end rookie. So yeah, the number I don't Again,

718
00:36:04,960 --> 00:36:07,160
Speaker 2: I'm looking in the app right now, most books are

719
00:36:07,200 --> 00:36:09,879
Speaker 2: still showing three. So those two and a halfs look

720
00:36:09,960 --> 00:36:14,319
Speaker 2: like they've they've disappeared. But that sounds right. Like Chad said,

721
00:36:14,320 --> 00:36:16,840
Speaker 2: it's like this number should be three. Technically, there is

722
00:36:16,920 --> 00:36:20,000
Speaker 2: no value right now at this point, but I just

723
00:36:20,080 --> 00:36:22,440
Speaker 2: love the rams in this spot so much, and Chad

724
00:36:22,480 --> 00:36:24,000
Speaker 2: already talked about it as well, that like you can

725
00:36:24,080 --> 00:36:26,280
Speaker 2: bet the public here, like you can bet with the public.

726
00:36:26,360 --> 00:36:29,840
Speaker 2: It's okay in the wildcard round historically if you've been

727
00:36:29,920 --> 00:36:32,000
Speaker 2: doing it since We've been tracking it since what mid

728
00:36:32,040 --> 00:36:35,239
Speaker 2: two thousands of and it's like fifty three percent. That's

729
00:36:35,280 --> 00:36:37,880
Speaker 2: a really nice number for a twenty year sample size.

730
00:36:37,920 --> 00:36:40,680
Speaker 2: So don't don't let it scay off that this is

731
00:36:41,360 --> 00:36:43,239
Speaker 2: no doubt the most public dog of the week. Like

732
00:36:43,320 --> 00:36:45,480
Speaker 2: I'm looking at our app right now. It's just all

733
00:36:45,840 --> 00:36:50,040
Speaker 2: Rams money right now. So yeah, the fear is like

734
00:36:50,120 --> 00:36:52,040
Speaker 2: I said, I talked to a lot of people these

735
00:36:52,120 --> 00:36:55,160
Speaker 2: last forty eight hours. Only talk to two guys who

736
00:36:55,400 --> 00:36:58,040
Speaker 2: like the Lions here in this spot, and they think

737
00:36:58,160 --> 00:37:01,520
Speaker 2: that this RAMS team's inflated. I just wholeheartedly disagree. I

738
00:37:01,600 --> 00:37:04,640
Speaker 2: think every week they've improved. Chad talked about since Williams

739
00:37:04,719 --> 00:37:07,359
Speaker 2: come back, their identity has shifted so much. Like they

740
00:37:08,360 --> 00:37:10,880
Speaker 2: everything goes through I mean, you wouldn't believe it. Stafford

741
00:37:10,880 --> 00:37:12,880
Speaker 2: didn't pass for four thousand yards this season and he

742
00:37:12,920 --> 00:37:14,400
Speaker 2: didn't miss I mean he missed one game because he

743
00:37:14,400 --> 00:37:17,000
Speaker 2: saw out that last game. But that's how incredibly good

744
00:37:17,080 --> 00:37:19,759
Speaker 2: Williams has been that they haven't needed Stafford to put

745
00:37:19,760 --> 00:37:20,960
Speaker 2: it all on their shoulders, they be able to run

746
00:37:21,000 --> 00:37:23,520
Speaker 2: the ball with him. So it's just people can tell

747
00:37:23,560 --> 00:37:25,200
Speaker 2: I'm all on this Rams team. They're my favorite team

748
00:37:25,200 --> 00:37:28,000
Speaker 2: for NFC for Super Bowl futures, and it all starts here.

749
00:37:28,080 --> 00:37:30,880
Speaker 2: So obviously, if I'm betting their Super Bowl future, I

750
00:37:30,880 --> 00:37:32,680
Speaker 2: think they're gonna win this game, So no fear for me.

751
00:37:33,120 --> 00:37:34,799
Speaker 2: I like the I'm on the money line here as well.

752
00:37:34,840 --> 00:37:36,759
Speaker 2: It's just all in on this Rams team and the

753
00:37:36,800 --> 00:37:37,840
Speaker 2: Stafford led offense.

754
00:37:38,520 --> 00:37:42,960
Speaker 1: That is an interesting angle and connection that people forget.

755
00:37:43,320 --> 00:37:48,040
Speaker 1: If you're betting futures for a team that is a

756
00:37:48,200 --> 00:37:51,279
Speaker 1: bit of a longer shot, you might as well just

757
00:37:51,360 --> 00:37:54,120
Speaker 1: be betting their money line because you believe, you believe

758
00:37:55,080 --> 00:37:57,760
Speaker 1: they're gonna keep winning through the playoffs, and you're probably

759
00:37:57,800 --> 00:38:01,680
Speaker 1: gonna be getting pretty decent odds on that money line. Simon,

760
00:38:02,080 --> 00:38:04,880
Speaker 1: we got one more game to talk about, Philadelphia Tampa.

761
00:38:05,000 --> 00:38:08,720
Speaker 1: Tampa is a three point dog at home. But neither

762
00:38:08,840 --> 00:38:12,319
Speaker 1: side of this feels fox holy to me, So I'm

763
00:38:12,360 --> 00:38:15,040
Speaker 1: not sure how we're foxholing.

764
00:38:15,480 --> 00:38:18,040
Speaker 2: Well, we can do. We can either do the Chiefs

765
00:38:18,120 --> 00:38:21,239
Speaker 2: under or do your Texas book Texans book, which is like,

766
00:38:21,280 --> 00:38:23,840
Speaker 2: I'm supportive, but you're You're like me, You're like, we

767
00:38:23,960 --> 00:38:24,520
Speaker 2: want the three.

768
00:38:25,040 --> 00:38:26,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, I really want the three.

769
00:38:26,320 --> 00:38:27,480
Speaker 2: We got a man up, though, I think we went

770
00:38:27,520 --> 00:38:28,600
Speaker 2: to the man up and just take the two and

771
00:38:28,640 --> 00:38:29,120
Speaker 2: a half.

772
00:38:29,239 --> 00:38:31,320
Speaker 1: All right, Then let's just foxhold it on the Texans

773
00:38:31,360 --> 00:38:34,760
Speaker 1: at two and a half, Like I'd rather that feels

774
00:38:34,840 --> 00:38:37,239
Speaker 1: more fox holy to me than taking the chiefs, under

775
00:38:37,680 --> 00:38:39,640
Speaker 1: which I think people are going to come around. So

776
00:38:40,880 --> 00:38:44,040
Speaker 1: go ahead, throw up the graphic, Tito. We're making the

777
00:38:44,160 --> 00:38:47,960
Speaker 1: Texans plus two and a half our foxhole. That's what

778
00:38:48,080 --> 00:38:50,040
Speaker 1: we're gonna do. It's going to be me and Simon

779
00:38:50,320 --> 00:38:53,960
Speaker 1: together in the trenches of Houston. Don't forget the big

780
00:38:54,040 --> 00:38:58,280
Speaker 1: balls as the Green Bay Packers, which leaves phil Elfia Tampa.

781
00:38:59,560 --> 00:39:01,800
Speaker 1: I don't know to do with this game. You know,

782
00:39:02,000 --> 00:39:06,040
Speaker 1: Baker has been playing practicing. The Eagles are so banged up.

783
00:39:06,120 --> 00:39:07,960
Speaker 1: The lines moved a little bit, I think because there

784
00:39:08,040 --> 00:39:10,920
Speaker 1: might be questions about whether or not Baker was going

785
00:39:11,000 --> 00:39:14,640
Speaker 1: to play or how effective he would be. But now

786
00:39:14,719 --> 00:39:19,239
Speaker 1: it's a three. Everyone's going to want to chase this game.

787
00:39:19,320 --> 00:39:22,600
Speaker 1: It's the Monday game. I have no interest in this game,

788
00:39:22,640 --> 00:39:23,839
Speaker 1: and I have no opinion on this game.

789
00:39:25,080 --> 00:39:27,080
Speaker 2: I got a priced right. I haven't actually had minus

790
00:39:27,120 --> 00:39:30,000
Speaker 2: three and a half Eagles modeled, but it's like you

791
00:39:30,120 --> 00:39:32,480
Speaker 2: factor in all the injuries the Eagles have the unknowns.

792
00:39:32,920 --> 00:39:35,920
Speaker 2: Three is a right number. The books like they opened

793
00:39:35,920 --> 00:39:37,319
Speaker 2: it at I think one and a half because they

794
00:39:37,360 --> 00:39:38,920
Speaker 2: were just like, Okay, let's see how the public and

795
00:39:39,000 --> 00:39:40,879
Speaker 2: the pros are going to view this game. They took

796
00:39:40,920 --> 00:39:42,719
Speaker 2: a position. They took the Eagles position. I already talked

797
00:39:42,719 --> 00:39:44,439
Speaker 2: about it. I think it's because of what Chad said

798
00:39:44,440 --> 00:39:47,960
Speaker 2: about Baker. It's like he hit a bum ankle, wasn't

799
00:39:48,000 --> 00:39:51,560
Speaker 2: walking right. Obviously, struggled in that game mightily against Carolina

800
00:39:51,600 --> 00:39:54,000
Speaker 2: with bad throws, really not being able to put weight

801
00:39:54,080 --> 00:39:56,920
Speaker 2: on that leg, and he had a couple scrambles when

802
00:39:56,960 --> 00:39:59,799
Speaker 2: he after he scrambled, he didn't look right in that game.

803
00:40:00,120 --> 00:40:01,520
Speaker 2: He had a big scramble and then he just really

804
00:40:01,560 --> 00:40:03,560
Speaker 2: couldn't put a lot of weight on that leg. I

805
00:40:03,680 --> 00:40:05,839
Speaker 2: just watched him this week in practice. He looked all right,

806
00:40:05,920 --> 00:40:07,560
Speaker 2: you stepping into his throats, he was putting weight on

807
00:40:07,600 --> 00:40:09,719
Speaker 2: the leg. He had a little scramble that I saw

808
00:40:09,800 --> 00:40:11,560
Speaker 2: in one video of some guy posted a f movie

809
00:40:11,560 --> 00:40:14,279
Speaker 2: outside the pocket, which is like, doesn't sound like much.

810
00:40:14,800 --> 00:40:16,480
Speaker 2: But I want to see that stuff because, like Baker

811
00:40:16,600 --> 00:40:20,040
Speaker 2: talked about, it's like if the game's Sunday, you know

812
00:40:20,320 --> 00:40:22,640
Speaker 2: it's it's obviously different, but it is Monday night, Like

813
00:40:22,719 --> 00:40:25,840
Speaker 2: he gets a full eight days to heal from that injury.

814
00:40:25,920 --> 00:40:27,680
Speaker 2: That is a big deal at this point in the season.

815
00:40:27,760 --> 00:40:32,200
Speaker 2: So the books are priced this, right. We all know

816
00:40:32,360 --> 00:40:34,440
Speaker 2: the Eagles are a better team, right, Like, there's no

817
00:40:34,560 --> 00:40:36,839
Speaker 2: doubt the Eagles are a better team, but they've been

818
00:40:37,000 --> 00:40:40,960
Speaker 2: so bad now these last five six weeks you have

819
00:40:41,040 --> 00:40:42,560
Speaker 2: to throw it out. It's like, Okay, just because they're

820
00:40:42,600 --> 00:40:44,719
Speaker 2: the better team on paper, doesn't mean they the better

821
00:40:44,760 --> 00:40:46,600
Speaker 2: team right now. That's the biggest problem here. It's like

822
00:40:47,000 --> 00:40:50,719
Speaker 2: they're all offenses averaging twenty points per game these last

823
00:40:50,760 --> 00:40:53,080
Speaker 2: six weeks, while their defense is giving up over thirty

824
00:40:53,120 --> 00:40:55,680
Speaker 2: points per game. Like it's just gone bad. I know

825
00:40:55,840 --> 00:40:57,680
Speaker 2: that screwed a little bit because that Giants game where

826
00:40:57,680 --> 00:41:00,839
Speaker 2: they just got completely dominated, But it's like this team

827
00:41:01,280 --> 00:41:02,920
Speaker 2: as a whole, I mean, we've been all over We've

828
00:41:02,920 --> 00:41:05,800
Speaker 2: been fading them for weeks now, and that's the hardest

829
00:41:05,800 --> 00:41:07,400
Speaker 2: party where it's like I want to fade them, and

830
00:41:07,480 --> 00:41:09,480
Speaker 2: the books know that, and that's the problem where it's

831
00:41:09,560 --> 00:41:13,759
Speaker 2: like I don't really get the line movement because like

832
00:41:14,000 --> 00:41:16,480
Speaker 2: we just talked about the we know bakers in and

833
00:41:16,600 --> 00:41:18,120
Speaker 2: like this, I don't get by this number hasn' drop

834
00:41:18,200 --> 00:41:21,080
Speaker 2: back down to two. Two and a half just doesn't

835
00:41:21,120 --> 00:41:24,480
Speaker 2: make sense how she's holding that three. So it looks

836
00:41:24,520 --> 00:41:26,440
Speaker 2: like the Pros that's who they're gonna back, right, The

837
00:41:26,480 --> 00:41:28,200
Speaker 2: Pros are back in the Eagles, they're holding this number

838
00:41:28,239 --> 00:41:29,719
Speaker 2: up because every time they dips two and a half,

839
00:41:29,760 --> 00:41:31,600
Speaker 2: they're the ones moving it back up to three. So

840
00:41:32,600 --> 00:41:36,000
Speaker 2: pretty interesting. But I want to, honestly want to be

841
00:41:36,080 --> 00:41:37,960
Speaker 2: on the Bucks. Like there's just so many questions with

842
00:41:38,000 --> 00:41:40,680
Speaker 2: the Eagles, where as bad as this Bucks team is,

843
00:41:40,719 --> 00:41:43,120
Speaker 2: at least I know exactly what I'm getting here. But

844
00:41:43,320 --> 00:41:45,440
Speaker 2: the biggest thing here is I'm like I'm looking at

845
00:41:45,640 --> 00:41:48,680
Speaker 2: the weather app. It's supposed to be thunderstorms and really

846
00:41:48,719 --> 00:41:52,360
Speaker 2: heavy rains that Monday night game, and we all know

847
00:41:52,480 --> 00:41:54,320
Speaker 2: the Bucks aren't right a running the ball, right. The

848
00:41:54,400 --> 00:41:57,319
Speaker 2: success of the season's been through the air through Mike

849
00:41:57,360 --> 00:42:00,239
Speaker 2: Evans and Godwin and the Eagles. I know they've been

850
00:42:00,280 --> 00:42:02,000
Speaker 2: the same team down the stretcher running the ball, but

851
00:42:02,239 --> 00:42:04,400
Speaker 2: like that's their bread and butter. At the core of

852
00:42:04,440 --> 00:42:07,120
Speaker 2: this team. The offensive line is what makes them so special,

853
00:42:07,200 --> 00:42:10,240
Speaker 2: Like they have such a great offensive line. Swift rested

854
00:42:10,320 --> 00:42:12,920
Speaker 2: last week. He's apparently full go this week in practice,

855
00:42:12,920 --> 00:42:15,800
Speaker 2: so he will be back for this game. Up in

856
00:42:15,880 --> 00:42:18,279
Speaker 2: the air is still Smith even aj Brown is still

857
00:42:18,280 --> 00:42:19,680
Speaker 2: tinkling up in the air. They don't know if he's

858
00:42:19,680 --> 00:42:22,600
Speaker 2: guaranteed to play in this game as well. So it

859
00:42:23,320 --> 00:42:25,319
Speaker 2: the Eagles better hope this rains, because that's a big

860
00:42:25,360 --> 00:42:28,239
Speaker 2: advantage for them because you don't have your guys on

861
00:42:28,280 --> 00:42:30,600
Speaker 2: the outside and the Bucks do have their guys on

862
00:42:30,600 --> 00:42:33,359
Speaker 2: the outside. Like that's such a big discrepancy between these

863
00:42:33,400 --> 00:42:35,520
Speaker 2: two teams. And and Sydney Brown's out for the Eagles,

864
00:42:35,640 --> 00:42:37,759
Speaker 2: like they're they're starting safety. Like it's just so many

865
00:42:37,800 --> 00:42:41,480
Speaker 2: injuries to this team. So yeah, I just if you

866
00:42:41,520 --> 00:42:42,879
Speaker 2: see me in the morning, I know I told people

867
00:42:42,920 --> 00:42:44,680
Speaker 2: to take the Eagles on Tuesday just in case the

868
00:42:44,719 --> 00:42:46,799
Speaker 2: Baker injury was almost for real. The number is gonna move,

869
00:42:47,560 --> 00:42:50,120
Speaker 2: obviously that's changed now. Like I'm happy to buy that

870
00:42:50,160 --> 00:42:52,960
Speaker 2: position if I need to, But come Sunday, if this

871
00:42:53,080 --> 00:42:55,120
Speaker 2: does go stay at three or go to three and

872
00:42:55,120 --> 00:42:57,640
Speaker 2: a half. I probably will take it, and then Monday,

873
00:42:57,840 --> 00:42:59,960
Speaker 2: I'm hoping it moves to four because, like Chad said,

874
00:43:00,800 --> 00:43:02,719
Speaker 2: most of public should be chasing at this point, right

875
00:43:02,719 --> 00:43:04,120
Speaker 2: and they're going to come in on this Eagles team.

876
00:43:04,520 --> 00:43:07,200
Speaker 2: You might be able to get four with this number.

877
00:43:07,320 --> 00:43:09,800
Speaker 2: So if you want to bet this Bucks team, definitely

878
00:43:09,880 --> 00:43:11,600
Speaker 2: be patient. I could see the number rising as we

879
00:43:11,600 --> 00:43:12,520
Speaker 2: get closer to Monday.

880
00:43:13,600 --> 00:43:18,520
Speaker 1: Let's be patient. Money Line Underdog round Robin. I know

881
00:43:18,640 --> 00:43:19,480
Speaker 1: we want the Rams.

882
00:43:20,640 --> 00:43:22,520
Speaker 2: Let's just do three though, because it's.

883
00:43:22,560 --> 00:43:23,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, yeah, well we're not.

884
00:43:23,680 --> 00:43:26,000
Speaker 2: We can't do I can't force in.

885
00:43:26,239 --> 00:43:27,880
Speaker 1: I don't think we have five we Like I was,

886
00:43:27,960 --> 00:43:30,959
Speaker 1: I was gonna limit Honestly, I was going to limit

887
00:43:31,040 --> 00:43:33,839
Speaker 1: it to two and let's see if we can force

888
00:43:33,920 --> 00:43:34,439
Speaker 1: in a third.

889
00:43:35,000 --> 00:43:39,320
Speaker 2: To me, you gotta do Rams, you gotta do your Houston.

890
00:43:40,239 --> 00:43:43,160
Speaker 1: Okay, interesting because I was going to say I was.

891
00:43:43,360 --> 00:43:45,160
Speaker 1: I actually wasn't going to put Green Bay in there.

892
00:43:45,200 --> 00:43:48,800
Speaker 1: I was going to do Rams, Houston and uh Tampa.

893
00:43:49,480 --> 00:43:50,319
Speaker 2: Yeah that's fair.

894
00:43:50,960 --> 00:43:53,080
Speaker 1: So let's do Rams, Houston and Tampa.

895
00:43:53,640 --> 00:43:54,920
Speaker 2: One of the reason I want to put Houston is

896
00:43:55,000 --> 00:43:58,040
Speaker 2: because we already talked about that stat the rookie has

897
00:43:58,120 --> 00:44:00,080
Speaker 2: never beat the number one defense in the playoffs, and

898
00:44:00,800 --> 00:44:03,480
Speaker 2: I just feel like CJ is the ultimate unicorn. Like

899
00:44:03,560 --> 00:44:07,399
Speaker 2: everything he's done this year has been so rare. That's

900
00:44:07,480 --> 00:44:09,680
Speaker 2: that's a fun bet to make that something's ever happened before.

901
00:44:09,680 --> 00:44:11,959
Speaker 2: There's always that one guy that comes wrong, our neo

902
00:44:12,000 --> 00:44:14,759
Speaker 2: from the matrix that changes everything, and CJ feels like

903
00:44:14,840 --> 00:44:16,640
Speaker 2: that guy, so that that is not agreement.

904
00:44:17,200 --> 00:44:22,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, he he breaks all the rules here. So Houston

905
00:44:22,520 --> 00:44:24,239
Speaker 1: continues to be a team that we're going to be

906
00:44:24,560 --> 00:44:27,759
Speaker 1: that we're going to be backing Simon, can you make

907
00:44:27,800 --> 00:44:30,680
Speaker 1: Little Caesars, which is the official pizza sponsor of the NFL,

908
00:44:31,160 --> 00:44:36,000
Speaker 1: part of your game day? Would you let a stranger

909
00:44:36,719 --> 00:44:40,680
Speaker 1: into your house to watch a game if they brought

910
00:44:41,160 --> 00:44:43,320
Speaker 1: two Little Caesars pizzas?

911
00:44:44,400 --> 00:44:45,879
Speaker 2: Yeah, you had me in the first half, but I'm

912
00:44:45,920 --> 00:44:46,400
Speaker 2: all in on that.

913
00:44:46,880 --> 00:44:47,320
Speaker 3: Of course.

914
00:44:47,400 --> 00:44:50,359
Speaker 1: You would order online during our pizza pizza pre game

915
00:44:50,400 --> 00:44:53,400
Speaker 1: one hour before NFL games and get ready for some

916
00:44:53,520 --> 00:44:56,560
Speaker 1: football and fun. Choose your favorite Little Caesars pizza or

917
00:44:56,640 --> 00:45:00,520
Speaker 1: pick the toppings you crave. All right, brother, are you

918
00:45:00,600 --> 00:45:05,480
Speaker 1: ready for this brand new motto I just invented After

919
00:45:05,640 --> 00:45:12,400
Speaker 1: a Super Bowl all fans lust? So Ruth them on

920
00:45:13,719 --> 00:45:18,080
Speaker 1: with crazy crust. However, you order your pizza, you win.

921
00:45:18,440 --> 00:45:22,759
Speaker 1: And speaking of winning, everyone scores with convenient delivery or

922
00:45:22,840 --> 00:45:26,120
Speaker 1: our in store pizza portal pickup. So grab some friends

923
00:45:26,160 --> 00:45:29,080
Speaker 1: and enjoy a few slices during the game. As a reminder,

924
00:45:29,120 --> 00:45:31,000
Speaker 1: you can catch every episode of The Favorites live on

925
00:45:31,120 --> 00:45:34,240
Speaker 1: YouTube every Tuesday, Thursday Sunday if you're subscribing on YouTube.

926
00:45:34,280 --> 00:45:36,440
Speaker 1: If you're watching on YouTube, don't forget to give us

927
00:45:36,480 --> 00:45:40,120
Speaker 1: a like or subscribe and subscribe to the Action Network

928
00:45:40,440 --> 00:45:46,439
Speaker 1: YouTube page. All right, if it had to be one,

929
00:45:46,560 --> 00:45:49,200
Speaker 1: and I think you just said what it was your

930
00:45:49,360 --> 00:45:53,120
Speaker 1: favorite Super Bowl future right now?

931
00:45:54,960 --> 00:45:57,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, Rams, I'm almost positive before we came on there

932
00:45:57,960 --> 00:46:01,560
Speaker 2: were still fifty to one ble odds. And I know

933
00:46:01,640 --> 00:46:03,000
Speaker 2: how tough of a path they have to get there,

934
00:46:03,080 --> 00:46:05,040
Speaker 2: But I already talked about it. People like it just

935
00:46:05,120 --> 00:46:08,120
Speaker 2: lines up right for them. Where of all the teams

936
00:46:08,280 --> 00:46:10,880
Speaker 2: in the NFC, they're the only ones that have already

937
00:46:10,920 --> 00:46:13,120
Speaker 2: faced this forty nine ers team multiple times. They know

938
00:46:13,239 --> 00:46:15,480
Speaker 2: what the forty Niners like to do. Stafford is a

939
00:46:15,560 --> 00:46:17,440
Speaker 2: veteran quarterback. You won't let the moment get too big

940
00:46:17,520 --> 00:46:20,279
Speaker 2: for him. And a Stafford versus party kind of game.

941
00:46:21,360 --> 00:46:23,880
Speaker 2: I'm gonna be feeling pretty confident back in Stafford especially,

942
00:46:24,000 --> 00:46:25,440
Speaker 2: he's gonna be a you know what, what do you think?

943
00:46:25,440 --> 00:46:26,799
Speaker 2: You think he's gonna be a five to six point

944
00:46:26,880 --> 00:46:29,520
Speaker 2: dog in that game. It makes sense why they have

945
00:46:29,560 --> 00:46:32,600
Speaker 2: such big odds at this point, just because the road

946
00:46:32,640 --> 00:46:34,840
Speaker 2: to get there is going to be insane. But we

947
00:46:34,960 --> 00:46:37,200
Speaker 2: talk all the time, these veteran quarterbacks with these teams

948
00:46:37,239 --> 00:46:38,960
Speaker 2: that people don't believe in, They can go on these

949
00:46:39,000 --> 00:46:41,040
Speaker 2: type of runs. You just have to get hot at

950
00:46:41,080 --> 00:46:43,480
Speaker 2: the right time, like Joe Flacco shown us right. Joe

951
00:46:43,560 --> 00:46:46,359
Speaker 2: Flacco got hot at the right time took his team

952
00:46:46,360 --> 00:46:48,279
Speaker 2: to a Super Bowl. Sam could be said here with

953
00:46:48,280 --> 00:46:50,440
Speaker 2: the Stafford and the scroup of receivers and Williams are

954
00:46:50,520 --> 00:46:52,880
Speaker 2: running back. It's just there's such a good team that

955
00:46:53,560 --> 00:46:55,520
Speaker 2: if the forty nine ers weren't hyped up so much,

956
00:46:55,640 --> 00:46:57,640
Speaker 2: this would be what thirty to one, twenty five to one,

957
00:46:57,880 --> 00:47:00,680
Speaker 2: it feels like. But just because everyone has the four

958
00:47:00,719 --> 00:47:03,160
Speaker 2: nits so far ahead of them, they're just getting no respect.

959
00:47:03,239 --> 00:47:05,840
Speaker 2: So yeah, fifty to one, give me the Rams.

960
00:47:07,160 --> 00:47:09,560
Speaker 1: As a reminder of the favorite podcast is presented by

961
00:47:09,600 --> 00:47:12,880
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962
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968
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970
00:47:33,040 --> 00:47:38,000
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971
00:47:38,160 --> 00:47:41,400
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972
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973
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Speaker 1: Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply. All right, we're we get

974
00:47:47,600 --> 00:47:50,880
Speaker 1: out of here. Evan Abrams, who nails all the stats

975
00:47:50,920 --> 00:47:54,719
Speaker 1: and trends, our director or research share at the Action Network.

976
00:47:55,440 --> 00:47:58,520
Speaker 1: The last word with Evan Abrams.

977
00:47:59,239 --> 00:47:59,800
Speaker 3: We're finished.

978
00:48:00,719 --> 00:48:02,880
Speaker 4: Let's talk about unders for a second, because they're always

979
00:48:02,880 --> 00:48:05,759
Speaker 4: in fashion. So since twenty eighteen, unders have hitted fifty

980
00:48:05,800 --> 00:48:08,279
Speaker 4: three percent in the regular season, in the playoffs fifty

981
00:48:08,400 --> 00:48:11,680
Speaker 4: nine percent in the last twenty years unders fifty one

982
00:48:11,840 --> 00:48:14,600
Speaker 4: thirty five in the wildcard round also fifty nine percent,

983
00:48:14,719 --> 00:48:17,040
Speaker 4: So you do get that jump and it's pretty consistent.

984
00:48:17,239 --> 00:48:19,280
Speaker 1: That makes me feel really good that we're on the Cleveland,

985
00:48:19,320 --> 00:48:21,560
Speaker 1: Texan under and the Kansas City, Miami under.

986
00:48:21,920 --> 00:48:23,839
Speaker 4: Kansas City one's gonna be fascinating because it's just it's

987
00:48:23,920 --> 00:48:25,320
Speaker 4: lower than it was. We're going to see if it

988
00:48:25,360 --> 00:48:27,719
Speaker 4: goes under the close versus the open. But sixteen and

989
00:48:27,880 --> 00:48:30,480
Speaker 4: three to the under from a Hoomes home starts crazy.

990
00:48:30,840 --> 00:48:34,080
Speaker 4: You're gonna like this one, Chad and Simon so trendy

991
00:48:34,400 --> 00:48:37,920
Speaker 4: public dogs if you bet on NFL playoff underdogs and

992
00:48:38,000 --> 00:48:40,600
Speaker 4: the line shrinks, So going from plus four to plus three,

993
00:48:40,880 --> 00:48:43,759
Speaker 4: you're in great shape. Playoff underdogs with a positive line

994
00:48:43,840 --> 00:48:46,440
Speaker 4: move just under seventy percent against a spread in the

995
00:48:46,480 --> 00:48:50,080
Speaker 4: last twenty years. Six game sample size, and that's against

996
00:48:50,080 --> 00:48:52,719
Speaker 4: the closing number, not even the opener. The one team

997
00:48:52,800 --> 00:48:55,240
Speaker 4: that fits that is the most. It's the biggest public

998
00:48:55,400 --> 00:48:58,279
Speaker 4: side in all six games, and that's the Rams. So

999
00:48:58,600 --> 00:49:02,319
Speaker 4: no sans ram. As long as that sticks at three,

1000
00:49:02,440 --> 00:49:04,200
Speaker 4: we're in good shape. Open at three and a half,

1001
00:49:04,360 --> 00:49:07,799
Speaker 4: so getting some RAMS love. You guys mentioned this as well,

1002
00:49:08,080 --> 00:49:12,040
Speaker 4: Dolphins cold weather outdoors. It's just worth putting through the

1003
00:49:12,120 --> 00:49:19,280
Speaker 4: facts here. Under fifty degrees outdoors, they've won just fifteen

1004
00:49:19,440 --> 00:49:22,759
Speaker 4: of their fifty seven games last twenty years. That's twenty

1005
00:49:22,840 --> 00:49:25,719
Speaker 4: six percent. They are two for their last twenty one

1006
00:49:26,080 --> 00:49:28,080
Speaker 4: outdoors under fifty degrees.

1007
00:49:28,480 --> 00:49:29,000
Speaker 2: Not great.

1008
00:49:29,320 --> 00:49:32,719
Speaker 4: Under forty degrees, they've lost nine straight. They've won eight

1009
00:49:32,719 --> 00:49:37,400
Speaker 4: of their last twenty seven. Not great. Tua played eleven

1010
00:49:37,560 --> 00:49:41,080
Speaker 4: times against winning teams on the road. He is two

1011
00:49:41,200 --> 00:49:44,680
Speaker 4: and nine straight up, covered just three times, so the

1012
00:49:44,760 --> 00:49:47,680
Speaker 4: situation with the Miami and two together not great. And

1013
00:49:47,760 --> 00:49:51,879
Speaker 4: then finally the Cowboys so since ninety seven, covered three

1014
00:49:52,320 --> 00:49:56,560
Speaker 4: of their sixteen playoff games, DAK one in five against

1015
00:49:56,600 --> 00:50:00,080
Speaker 4: the spread, eighty fifth of eighty eight quarterbacks against in

1016
00:50:00,120 --> 00:50:02,080
Speaker 4: the playoffs last twenty years. And this is just a

1017
00:50:02,120 --> 00:50:04,759
Speaker 4: fun one from Jordan Love. So if he wins this game,

1018
00:50:04,800 --> 00:50:07,160
Speaker 4: he joined a very exclusive club. He'd win his first

1019
00:50:07,160 --> 00:50:09,919
Speaker 4: playoff game as an underdog of a touchdowner. More, only

1020
00:50:10,000 --> 00:50:11,920
Speaker 4: ten qbs have done that in the Super Bowl layer

1021
00:50:12,280 --> 00:50:15,279
Speaker 4: the last meeting Marcus Mariota in twenty eighteen and Tim

1022
00:50:15,320 --> 00:50:16,560
Speaker 4: Tebow in twenty twelve.

1023
00:50:16,680 --> 00:50:18,719
Speaker 2: So maybe you can join the Club for Jordan.

1024
00:50:18,560 --> 00:50:21,239
Speaker 1: Love very good stuff, Evan. I liked every trend you

1025
00:50:21,320 --> 00:50:23,960
Speaker 1: gave because it was in favor of every bet that we've.

1026
00:50:23,840 --> 00:50:24,800
Speaker 2: Made, work on it.

1027
00:50:25,280 --> 00:50:28,080
Speaker 1: Thank you for the confirmation bias to recap. Here is

1028
00:50:28,120 --> 00:50:31,640
Speaker 1: our Foxhall. It's Houston plus two and a half. It

1029
00:50:31,800 --> 00:50:35,480
Speaker 1: is Simon says is the Rams plus three and a half.

1030
00:50:35,560 --> 00:50:40,160
Speaker 1: Our exact decision, Buffalo minus ten. The big Balls bet

1031
00:50:40,200 --> 00:50:42,480
Speaker 1: of the week Green Bay plus seven and a half

1032
00:50:42,800 --> 00:50:48,160
Speaker 1: are Round Robin the Rams, Houston Tampa. All right, before

1033
00:50:48,200 --> 00:50:52,120
Speaker 1: we get out of here, as promised, here is our

1034
00:50:52,280 --> 00:50:57,800
Speaker 1: interview with the Favorite Contest first place winner, Jesse Colberg.

1035
00:50:59,560 --> 00:51:04,600
Speaker 1: All right, we are privileged, honored, overjoyed to have the

1036
00:51:04,719 --> 00:51:09,840
Speaker 1: winner of the Favorites one hundred thousand dollars Pro football

1037
00:51:10,000 --> 00:51:15,880
Speaker 1: pick'em contest joining us right now. The guy is forty

1038
00:51:16,040 --> 00:51:21,840
Speaker 1: grand richer. He hit seventy one percent against the spread

1039
00:51:22,520 --> 00:51:26,240
Speaker 1: during the twenty twenty three football season. He beat twelve

1040
00:51:26,840 --> 00:51:32,880
Speaker 1: thousand entrants to win the money. His name is Jesse Goldberg.

1041
00:51:33,200 --> 00:51:37,279
Speaker 1: He's joining us now on the Favorite Jesse, Welcome. How

1042
00:51:37,320 --> 00:51:38,000
Speaker 1: are you feeling today?

1043
00:51:38,600 --> 00:51:39,359
Speaker 2: I'm feeling good.

1044
00:51:39,640 --> 00:51:41,640
Speaker 3: It's been a crazy few days. Get a lot of

1045
00:51:41,880 --> 00:51:44,799
Speaker 3: text from friends and family. They couldn't really believe it either.

1046
00:51:45,320 --> 00:51:46,520
Speaker 3: I definitely couldn't believe it.

1047
00:51:46,840 --> 00:51:50,640
Speaker 1: Help me what it feels like. It's Sunday night. Where

1048
00:51:50,760 --> 00:51:55,120
Speaker 1: were you? What were the circumstances when you realized you

1049
00:51:55,200 --> 00:51:56,880
Speaker 1: were going to win the money?

1050
00:51:57,480 --> 00:52:00,160
Speaker 3: Wife knew to leave me alone the entire day, that

1051
00:52:00,239 --> 00:52:02,600
Speaker 3: I'm like miserable to be around, but more so I

1052
00:52:02,760 --> 00:52:04,719
Speaker 3: just I wouldn't really want to talk to anybody. So

1053
00:52:04,840 --> 00:52:06,640
Speaker 3: she had a great day. She went over to like

1054
00:52:06,719 --> 00:52:09,520
Speaker 3: her best friends, saw a baby, went to her family's house,

1055
00:52:09,600 --> 00:52:11,560
Speaker 3: went to our other friends who were having people over

1056
00:52:11,680 --> 00:52:14,040
Speaker 3: for the Eagles, and I decided not to go. I

1057
00:52:14,440 --> 00:52:17,680
Speaker 3: kept to myself all day. I wasn't freaking out, maybe

1058
00:52:17,719 --> 00:52:19,840
Speaker 3: as much as it would be, but just needed to

1059
00:52:19,880 --> 00:52:22,600
Speaker 3: pay attention to every game. And then the nighttime, I

1060
00:52:22,719 --> 00:52:25,840
Speaker 3: obviously had the Bills game, and Josh Allen did everything

1061
00:52:25,920 --> 00:52:28,960
Speaker 3: in his power to try to not cover that game,

1062
00:52:29,080 --> 00:52:30,799
Speaker 3: so I was kind of freaking out the first half.

1063
00:52:30,960 --> 00:52:34,000
Speaker 3: There were definitely a few this is over, I definitely

1064
00:52:34,040 --> 00:52:38,360
Speaker 3: didn't win moments, But then if they covered, went upstairs

1065
00:52:38,600 --> 00:52:40,160
Speaker 3: told her that I won that game, so I was

1066
00:52:40,360 --> 00:52:43,840
Speaker 3: pretty sure that I wasn't completely positive with the tie breakers,

1067
00:52:43,920 --> 00:52:45,960
Speaker 3: but I thought I had a pretty good chance, so yeah,

1068
00:52:45,960 --> 00:52:48,480
Speaker 3: I went and updated. It was a pretty awesome feeling.

1069
00:52:48,960 --> 00:52:49,600
Speaker 1: Where are you from.

1070
00:52:50,120 --> 00:52:53,520
Speaker 3: I'm from Philadelphia area, just moved back to outside of

1071
00:52:53,560 --> 00:52:56,280
Speaker 3: phil it it's called media shout Out Delca.

1072
00:52:56,760 --> 00:52:57,759
Speaker 1: How did you get into bedding?

1073
00:52:58,160 --> 00:52:59,279
Speaker 2: I'm not like a.

1074
00:52:59,480 --> 00:53:02,080
Speaker 3: Huge gambler, I would say, but I listened to like

1075
00:53:02,400 --> 00:53:05,280
Speaker 3: a lot of fantasy podcasts, a lot of Action Network podcasts,

1076
00:53:05,640 --> 00:53:08,160
Speaker 3: heard about the contest, figured it's free, like why not?

1077
00:53:08,360 --> 00:53:09,879
Speaker 3: Answer took it from there.

1078
00:53:10,360 --> 00:53:13,520
Speaker 1: Did you have an overarching philosophy for the season.

1079
00:53:14,160 --> 00:53:17,720
Speaker 3: I developed a process over this season, and it's definitely

1080
00:53:18,360 --> 00:53:22,759
Speaker 3: not as probably like analytical as people might think. I

1081
00:53:22,880 --> 00:53:25,560
Speaker 3: think week three, I went five for five and now

1082
00:53:25,680 --> 00:53:29,040
Speaker 3: the tiebreaker, so I won some money that week, and

1083
00:53:29,160 --> 00:53:31,120
Speaker 3: then I think I went like five for five the

1084
00:53:31,200 --> 00:53:33,960
Speaker 3: next week, four for five the next week, and five

1085
00:53:34,040 --> 00:53:35,560
Speaker 3: for five the next week, and then I was like,

1086
00:53:35,680 --> 00:53:37,840
Speaker 3: all right, I have to kind of start really like

1087
00:53:38,280 --> 00:53:40,640
Speaker 3: paying attention to this. I think I had somewhat of

1088
00:53:40,719 --> 00:53:43,240
Speaker 3: a chance. Process wise, I would look at the numbers,

1089
00:53:43,280 --> 00:53:46,239
Speaker 3: like right when the contest open. Usually I would lock

1090
00:53:46,320 --> 00:53:48,640
Speaker 3: in like five games that just off the top of

1091
00:53:48,680 --> 00:53:51,000
Speaker 3: my head I liked. I listened to Your Guys podcast

1092
00:53:51,160 --> 00:53:54,080
Speaker 3: Sunday night and then Tuesdays. There's a few other Action

1093
00:53:54,200 --> 00:53:56,880
Speaker 3: Network podcasts that I would listen to see what like

1094
00:53:56,960 --> 00:53:59,680
Speaker 3: I agreed with, see what I might disagree with but

1095
00:53:59,840 --> 00:54:01,959
Speaker 3: not necessarily want to like be on the other side

1096
00:54:02,040 --> 00:54:04,800
Speaker 3: of That's my process. It's not the most analytical, but

1097
00:54:05,320 --> 00:54:07,239
Speaker 3: just kind of taking information from like a bunch of

1098
00:54:07,280 --> 00:54:07,799
Speaker 3: different people.

1099
00:54:07,880 --> 00:54:12,320
Speaker 1: I would say, sure, we are all of us fuckers

1100
00:54:12,960 --> 00:54:19,000
Speaker 1: breaking down tape, analyzing numbers, putting data into spreadsheets, and

1101
00:54:19,120 --> 00:54:23,880
Speaker 1: there's just schmuck living in media. Yeah, exactly, know fucking

1102
00:54:23,960 --> 00:54:27,960
Speaker 1: Delco who's like, exactly, eyeball some of these numbers. All right,

1103
00:54:28,040 --> 00:54:30,400
Speaker 1: So take me to Sunday. You avoided Carolina.

1104
00:54:31,040 --> 00:54:34,080
Speaker 3: Carolina. I just knew that they were the quote unquote

1105
00:54:34,160 --> 00:54:37,080
Speaker 3: sharp or right side. I just could not bet on

1106
00:54:37,160 --> 00:54:40,920
Speaker 3: them again and bet on Bryce Young for forty thousand dollars,

1107
00:54:41,000 --> 00:54:43,880
Speaker 3: like it just it wasn't happening Atlanta. Kind of the

1108
00:54:43,920 --> 00:54:46,320
Speaker 3: same thing with Desmond Britter and then watching that Atlanta

1109
00:54:46,360 --> 00:54:49,000
Speaker 3: game and I don't know if you saw the play

1110
00:54:49,040 --> 00:54:50,960
Speaker 3: where I think it was be John Robinson. It's just

1111
00:54:51,040 --> 00:54:53,280
Speaker 3: like wide opening the end zone on fourth down Desmond.

1112
00:54:53,440 --> 00:54:56,920
Speaker 1: Yes, Jesse, I saw it because we were on Atlanta.

1113
00:54:56,920 --> 00:54:59,680
Speaker 3: All right, Sorry, I should leave the Atlanta thing alone.

1114
00:55:00,000 --> 00:55:02,799
Speaker 3: Sorry about that, but yeah, So basically I didn't want

1115
00:55:02,800 --> 00:55:04,840
Speaker 3: to put forty thousand dollars in the hands of that

1116
00:55:05,239 --> 00:55:06,200
Speaker 3: investment reader.

1117
00:55:06,560 --> 00:55:10,400
Speaker 1: Well, somehow you ended up with the forty thousand dollars.

1118
00:55:10,640 --> 00:55:14,040
Speaker 1: You ended up being the wise guy who avoided Atlanta,

1119
00:55:14,400 --> 00:55:18,799
Speaker 1: who avoided Carolina, played the narrative, realized that Denver having

1120
00:55:18,840 --> 00:55:21,560
Speaker 1: a backup quarterback was not a good thing. All the

1121
00:55:21,680 --> 00:55:25,880
Speaker 1: mistakes that me and Simon made as the stewards of

1122
00:55:25,960 --> 00:55:31,279
Speaker 1: the contest you seem to avoid. Jesse Goldberg, last question,

1123
00:55:31,320 --> 00:55:32,200
Speaker 1: what are you going to do with the money?

1124
00:55:32,800 --> 00:55:34,760
Speaker 3: I'll think of something and keep you posted.

1125
00:55:35,080 --> 00:55:37,960
Speaker 1: Here's a little bit of advice. Since your wife was

1126
00:55:38,080 --> 00:55:43,960
Speaker 1: so kind, so patient, so indulgent, leaving you alone to

1127
00:55:44,160 --> 00:55:47,839
Speaker 1: wallow in your anxiety, at least get something nice for her.

1128
00:55:48,280 --> 00:55:48,960
Speaker 2: That's a good idea.

1129
00:55:49,040 --> 00:55:50,959
Speaker 3: I told her she should have waited a few weeks

1130
00:55:51,000 --> 00:55:52,640
Speaker 3: for a Christmas gift.

1131
00:55:53,040 --> 00:55:55,560
Speaker 1: Well, it always comes back around. It's never a bad

1132
00:55:55,680 --> 00:55:59,800
Speaker 1: time to get a nice gift for your bride. Jesse Goldberg,

1133
00:56:00,400 --> 00:56:04,759
Speaker 1: congratulations on winning the favorites one hundred thousand dollars Pro

1134
00:56:04,880 --> 00:56:10,719
Speaker 1: Football pick'em Contest. You are the inaugural champion. You will

1135
00:56:10,719 --> 00:56:14,520
Speaker 1: get a banner in the Action Network offices in New York.

1136
00:56:15,160 --> 00:56:19,160
Speaker 1: We will create a cup and engrave your name on it.

1137
00:56:19,600 --> 00:56:22,400
Speaker 3: Thank you, Jesse Goldberg, Thank you guys, and thanks to

1138
00:56:22,520 --> 00:56:25,240
Speaker 3: bet thirty six y five Okay.

1139
00:56:25,320 --> 00:56:28,240
Speaker 1: Download us from Spotify, Apple Podcast, wherever you get your pods,

1140
00:56:28,320 --> 00:56:30,839
Speaker 1: rate review, subscribe, leave us five stars, say whatever you want.

1141
00:56:30,920 --> 00:56:34,080
Speaker 1: Feedback is a gift. Until we see you guys. Sunday

1142
00:56:34,160 --> 00:56:38,520
Speaker 1: Night Live, seven thirty Beautiful Hoboken, New Jersey. Don't forget

1143
00:56:38,719 --> 00:56:42,800
Speaker 1: RSVP in the episode description free entry, free drinks. Shepherd

1144
00:56:42,840 --> 00:56:45,360
Speaker 1: and the Knucklehead get there to watch the games with

1145
00:56:45,520 --> 00:56:55,600
Speaker 1: us four pm in the afternoon. Love you. Action Network

1146
00:56:55,680 --> 00:56:59,680
Speaker 1: reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you

1147
00:56:59,800 --> 00:57:03,000
Speaker 1: care about has a gambling problem, help is available twenty

1148
00:57:03,040 --> 00:57:05,200
Speaker 1: four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler