WEBVTT - Crypto Coverage Explained

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<v Speaker 1>Hello, and welcome to What Goes Up a weekly markets podcast.

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<v Speaker 1>My name is Mike Reagan. I'm a senior editor at

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg and I'm Aldana Higher Across Acid reporter at Bloomberg.

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<v Speaker 1>And this week on the show, well, we didn't see

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<v Speaker 1>this coming, but turned out to be the year when

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<v Speaker 1>the crazy things we normally talked about at the end

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<v Speaker 1>of the podcast turned into the things we talked about

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<v Speaker 1>during the serious part of the show too, with crypto

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<v Speaker 1>executives being called before Congress, tokens that started out as

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<v Speaker 1>jokes skyrocketing to tens of billions of dollars in value,

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<v Speaker 1>n f t s of board apes selling for millions

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<v Speaker 1>of dollars, coin based, going public, you name it. It

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<v Speaker 1>was hard to avoid the crypto headlines this year and

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<v Speaker 1>wonder what it all means going forward. We're gonna talk

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<v Speaker 1>to the woman leading Bloomberg's coverage of it all about

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<v Speaker 1>what a wild year was and what's a lookout for

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<v Speaker 1>in two And speaking of crazy and wild things, are

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<v Speaker 1>operators are standing by to take your crazy things. So

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<v Speaker 1>if anybody saw something that they wanted to flag or

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<v Speaker 1>wanted to let us know about, you can call us

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<v Speaker 1>on the crazy things hotline. That's six four six three

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<v Speaker 1>two four three four zero. Leave us a voicemail. Maybe

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<v Speaker 1>we'll play it on the show. And as always, you

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<v Speaker 1>can always tweet at us as well. But first I

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<v Speaker 1>want to bring in Stacy Marie Ishmael. She's the managing

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<v Speaker 1>editor for Crypto at Bloomberg. Welcome to the show. Hi,

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<v Speaker 1>thanks so much for having me. Stacy also my neighbor

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<v Speaker 1>in the office. Although I'm getting kicked out of that

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<v Speaker 1>row about kicked out. They're moving me closer to the

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<v Speaker 1>men's room, which for a guy my agees is a

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<v Speaker 1>good it's an upgrade, So I'll take let's Stacy, I

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<v Speaker 1>just want you to tell the listeners a little bit

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<v Speaker 1>about yourself. I mean, how does such a nice, smart,

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<v Speaker 1>level headed woman, what career path takes her into this

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<v Speaker 1>crazy world of crypto that you found yourself in. Give

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<v Speaker 1>us sort of your your your resume in a nutshell here. Sure. So,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm a person who has bounced between technology and media

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<v Speaker 1>for a long long time, and my very first job

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<v Speaker 1>in journalism as a kind of a baby reporter, was

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<v Speaker 1>covering structured finance credit to false swaps and derivatives from

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<v Speaker 1>two thousands sticks to two thousand nine, which you know,

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<v Speaker 1>it was an interesting time for a baby reporter. While yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>it was, you know, it's what you do. Um you

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<v Speaker 1>sort of get you get thrown into the deep end.

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<v Speaker 1>You start writing these stories about market in disease of

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<v Speaker 1>credit to false swaps that seven people read, and then

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<v Speaker 1>for lots of different subprime and housing related reasons six

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<v Speaker 1>months later that everybody in the whole country in the

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<v Speaker 1>world are reading. So, you know, I come at finance

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<v Speaker 1>from this perspective of what goes up must go down,

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<v Speaker 1>But sometimes it goes sideways, and you don't always understand

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<v Speaker 1>what the structural transmission mechanisms might be. Something that looks

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<v Speaker 1>totally un correlated actually turns out to be a hundred

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<v Speaker 1>percent correlated with something else. And that's a perspective that

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<v Speaker 1>I found really helpful in in crypto, where you have

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<v Speaker 1>to both take it I suppose seriously but not literally

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<v Speaker 1>when when you're thinking about these things. And I also

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<v Speaker 1>have you know, a technology background of workers technology companies.

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<v Speaker 1>I have more kind of technical skills. I know, I

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<v Speaker 1>know enough programming and codes be dangerous, which has also

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<v Speaker 1>come in really handy from the perspective of evaluating on

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<v Speaker 1>understanding some of the white papers in crypto about like

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<v Speaker 1>why you should trust this OME token, or just on

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<v Speaker 1>understanding how disruptive some of the conversations that we're having

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<v Speaker 1>about the underpinnings of blockchain can be for the rest

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<v Speaker 1>of the sector. So just to start out really broadly speaking,

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<v Speaker 1>I know you wrote an article for Bloomberg recently. It's

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<v Speaker 1>titled Wall Street Finally Learned it Can't ignore Crypto and

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<v Speaker 1>n f T S. So I was hoping we could

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<v Speaker 1>start out with you just sort of talking about the

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<v Speaker 1>year in crypto. It seems like the big theme was

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<v Speaker 1>street acceptance. We heard that over and udging or otherwise,

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<v Speaker 1>right exactly, So maybe can you later lay that out

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<v Speaker 1>for us and what some of those factors were and

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<v Speaker 1>why that is important for the crypto community. Three three

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<v Speaker 1>good questions at once. Okay, So I'll start with what

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<v Speaker 1>what happened? Right, which is if you think back to

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<v Speaker 1>you know, millions of years ago in January one, when

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<v Speaker 1>so much of the conversation about crypto was tied up

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<v Speaker 1>in scams, fraud and ransomware, right, if you were if

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<v Speaker 1>you were talking about bitcoin, you were talking about how

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<v Speaker 1>somebody lost all of this and you know, I think

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<v Speaker 1>that that really had set been the tone and set

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<v Speaker 1>the tone for all but the truest of believers for

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<v Speaker 1>quite a long time. I think there are a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of media companies, Bloomberg included, that had much more sophisticated

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<v Speaker 1>coverage of crypto than just it's all scams all the time.

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<v Speaker 1>But you know, if you were to ask a person

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<v Speaker 1>on the street, odds are that if they had heard

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<v Speaker 1>about it, they either thought it was totally sketchy or

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<v Speaker 1>they also were like Team by Gold, you know, high,

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<v Speaker 1>high guns and in basement kind of kind of stereotype.

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<v Speaker 1>And then a few things happened all at once, right,

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<v Speaker 1>which is that you had the beginnings of fairly significant

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<v Speaker 1>price appreciation because coin base went public and coin based

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<v Speaker 1>being this major major exchange and hopefully helped well, I

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<v Speaker 1>think the people who were backing it, who helped hope

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<v Speaker 1>that it would help institutionalize the idea of this is

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<v Speaker 1>something that you can take seriously. Look it's it's serious

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<v Speaker 1>enough for this to be part of the public markets.

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<v Speaker 1>And that was in kind of March April, those conversations

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<v Speaker 1>were happening, and you you started to see that first

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<v Speaker 1>run up in prices. I would also say that right

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<v Speaker 1>around that time, when some of the buzz around meme

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<v Speaker 1>stocks was kind of hitting its peak, there was a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of overlap between people who were spending a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of time on Reddit forums talking about its etcetera. With

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<v Speaker 1>people who are spending a lot of time in Discord

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<v Speaker 1>talking about different crypto tokens. And I have what I

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<v Speaker 1>sometimes call my unified unified theory of crypto, which is

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<v Speaker 1>that it's roughly the same groups of folks who are

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<v Speaker 1>interested in sports, betting, poker, video games, n f t S,

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<v Speaker 1>Wall Street Bets, Discord, Reddit, Twitch, and YouTube. And not

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<v Speaker 1>everybody is part of every single one of those communities,

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<v Speaker 1>but chances are that if you belong to any one

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<v Speaker 1>of them, you are adjacent to people who belong to

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<v Speaker 1>the others. And I think there was a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>interesting overlap and conversation between some of the folks who

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<v Speaker 1>were like die hard on meme stocks and you know,

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<v Speaker 1>trading those in robin hood with people who were like, hey,

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<v Speaker 1>have you heard about the theory um maybe you should,

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<v Speaker 1>maybe you should add that to your portfolio. And this

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<v Speaker 1>is kind of what I mean about when you you

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<v Speaker 1>have to say crypto seriously but not always literally, which

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<v Speaker 1>is like you you wouldn't look back and say, Okay,

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<v Speaker 1>Wall Street now has to take crypto seriously because of

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<v Speaker 1>Wall Street bets. But you could also say one of

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<v Speaker 1>the reasons that Wall Street is taking crypto seriously is

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<v Speaker 1>because another thing that was driving material performance and markets

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<v Speaker 1>from the equities perspective, there were similar trends driving material

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<v Speaker 1>performance in crypto, you know, a totally different asset class.

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<v Speaker 1>And then, of course, I think one of the biggest

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<v Speaker 1>things that happened, and they happened within not too far

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<v Speaker 1>apart from each other, is al Salvador was like we're

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<v Speaker 1>all in on bitcoin, and China was like bitcoing completely legal,

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<v Speaker 1>and you had these totally different approaches to the asset

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<v Speaker 1>class that had you know, some interesting ripple effects, right,

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<v Speaker 1>which is one folks were like, well, if this is

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<v Speaker 1>serious enough for an entire country to ban it, and

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<v Speaker 1>it's also seriously enough for an entire country to go

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<v Speaker 1>all in on on bitcoin, perhaps we should pay more attention. Right. So,

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<v Speaker 1>whether you were pro or con the fact that this

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<v Speaker 1>asset class had is into sovereign attention as it were,

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<v Speaker 1>was I think another marker for folks that Okay, they

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<v Speaker 1>can't just be like la la la, I don't know

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<v Speaker 1>what's going on here. They really need to engage with

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<v Speaker 1>it in a serious way. So if your portfolio included

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<v Speaker 1>emerging market exposure of any kind, or your portfolio included TESLA,

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<v Speaker 1>or it included micro strategy, you know you were suddenly

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<v Speaker 1>having to be way more up to speed on Bitcoin

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<v Speaker 1>than you were maybe comfortable with or even aware of. Right,

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<v Speaker 1>so all of all of this is happening in a

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<v Speaker 1>very short amount of time. You know, we we kind

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<v Speaker 1>of go from like, ah, this is all bad and

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<v Speaker 1>ran somewhere to like WHOA, I need to I need

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<v Speaker 1>to understand this better. And then you have this incredible

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<v Speaker 1>run up in prices. Well, you know, at the time

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<v Speaker 1>of recording, like crypto is obviously nowhere near the old

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<v Speaker 1>time highs that we hit in November. You know, we're

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<v Speaker 1>about thirties down from the peak depending on the day,

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<v Speaker 1>but we are still so far above you know, the

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<v Speaker 1>when you could buy a bitcoin for like eight hundred

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<v Speaker 1>dollars that it's almost a different universe. And I think

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<v Speaker 1>that when you when you consider as Mike question in

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<v Speaker 1>the intro, you have n f T selling for millions

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<v Speaker 1>of dollars, you have single tokens experiencing three thousand percent

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<v Speaker 1>appreciation in a given window. You have bitcoin trading above

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<v Speaker 1>sixty dollars. If you are a serious person in financial markets,

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<v Speaker 1>there is too much money on the table, whatever your

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<v Speaker 1>personal opinion of the asset class might be, to ignore that. Yeah, absolutely,

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<v Speaker 1>I love your unifying theory there, you know, I pictured

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<v Speaker 1>is like a big ven diagram with all these little bubbles,

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<v Speaker 1>but all of them sort of dip into the crypto space. Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>to some I know personally, I know a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>I have some friends who were online poker players who

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<v Speaker 1>you know, when there was a crackdown on that all

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<v Speaker 1>of a sudden, the only way you could really bet

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<v Speaker 1>on online poker was was with crypto, you know. So

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<v Speaker 1>it's it's interesting the different sort of you avenues that

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<v Speaker 1>you can get sucked into it. Um. But Stacy, I

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<v Speaker 1>wanted to talk sort of from the journalistic perspective because

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<v Speaker 1>along with the growth of crypto, there's been this whole

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<v Speaker 1>new growth of media companies covering crypto, and you know,

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<v Speaker 1>whatever that happens there, You know, these publications have some

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<v Speaker 1>sort of vested interest in the space, and to me,

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<v Speaker 1>there's a risk of sort of coverage that that borders

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<v Speaker 1>on cheerleading, you know, and I don't want to use

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<v Speaker 1>cheerleading in a derogatory term, Bildona. I'm the father of

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<v Speaker 1>two cheerleaders. I actually I could be pressed into service.

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<v Speaker 1>Is like a backspot in a stunt group if needed.

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<v Speaker 1>So I I all all the respect it is for

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<v Speaker 1>if we if you ever want to do a stunt

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<v Speaker 1>at work, let you know, you know all the respect

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<v Speaker 1>in the world for cheerleading. Um. But you know from

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<v Speaker 1>that notion of and I think I know the answer.

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<v Speaker 1>I think Plato knows the answer. But to listeners out

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<v Speaker 1>there who are used to reading a different type of

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<v Speaker 1>coverage of crypto, how how do you approach Bloomberg's coverage?

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<v Speaker 1>And how how my it be different than say and

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<v Speaker 1>I'm la going to name any names, but a website

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<v Speaker 1>that obviously has has direct skin in the game of

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<v Speaker 1>the crypto world more so than we would. Yeah, I

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<v Speaker 1>mean this is this is the perpetual question of trade magazines,

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<v Speaker 1>right in the sense of and you know, for a

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<v Speaker 1>place where if you're direct owner is incentivized because they

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<v Speaker 1>participate in the crypto ecosystem to have all prices go

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<v Speaker 1>up that can present interesting editorial challenges and compromises. But

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<v Speaker 1>it's I think, as a as a universe of media,

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<v Speaker 1>it's not something we're totally unfamiliar with. What I would

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<v Speaker 1>say that I'm trying to bring to Bloomberg is, in

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<v Speaker 1>terms of crypto coverage, is a phrase that I use

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<v Speaker 1>a lot, which is rigorous skepticism, And that is to say,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm not actually interested in being cynical or nihilistic about

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<v Speaker 1>the asset class. I'm not interested in starting from a

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<v Speaker 1>place of well, all of this is, you know, potentially fraudulent,

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<v Speaker 1>Like I don't think that's journalistically useful, and I also

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<v Speaker 1>think it's untrue, right, Like is there an above average

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<v Speaker 1>number of sketchiness happening at all times? Yeah? Sure, but

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<v Speaker 1>it's it's not that's not the entirety of the universe. Similarly,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm not like a starry eyed believer, who will, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>take for granted any claim that a aggressively well funded

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<v Speaker 1>crypto ceo makes about this is the pathway to wealth redistribution. Like, sure, how,

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<v Speaker 1>give me, give me evidence, give me examples, you know, like,

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<v Speaker 1>show me materially what this means in practice. Um, And

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<v Speaker 1>I think that's that's where I would like all of

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<v Speaker 1>our coverage to live right that we are appropriately curious

0:12:43.520 --> 0:12:48.240
<v Speaker 1>and we're appropriately questioning, but we are sufficiently open minded

0:12:48.280 --> 0:12:57.800
<v Speaker 1>that we don't miss interesting stories. So, speaking of some

0:12:57.880 --> 0:13:01.080
<v Speaker 1>of the conversations we've been having internally, know we're we've

0:13:01.080 --> 0:13:04.120
<v Speaker 1>been working on a lot of stories that are you know,

0:13:04.160 --> 0:13:06.520
<v Speaker 1>looking at the year and review for crypto and for

0:13:06.640 --> 0:13:10.680
<v Speaker 1>bitcoin and for all these other offshoots, and so I'm wondering,

0:13:11.000 --> 0:13:12.800
<v Speaker 1>you know, I've been asking a lot of people like

0:13:12.840 --> 0:13:16.520
<v Speaker 1>what will it take to continue to see the market mature?

0:13:16.880 --> 0:13:20.240
<v Speaker 1>And I'm wondering how you're thinking about that. I think

0:13:20.360 --> 0:13:24.840
<v Speaker 1>any markets in which you have individual tokens or groups

0:13:24.840 --> 0:13:26.760
<v Speaker 1>of tokens that can go up or down by two

0:13:27.960 --> 0:13:32.600
<v Speaker 1>percent in one day is not mature yet. And I

0:13:32.720 --> 0:13:36.880
<v Speaker 1>think that when you're in a situation in which individual

0:13:37.200 --> 0:13:42.880
<v Speaker 1>CEOs tweeting about their puppies can cause entirely new classes

0:13:42.920 --> 0:13:46.480
<v Speaker 1>of things to spring into existence, I would also say

0:13:46.559 --> 0:13:50.520
<v Speaker 1>it's not you know, fully baked from from that kind

0:13:50.559 --> 0:13:52.199
<v Speaker 1>of perspective, and so I look at a couple of

0:13:52.240 --> 0:13:54.800
<v Speaker 1>different things. If you think about, you know, some traditional markers,

0:13:54.800 --> 0:13:57.840
<v Speaker 1>like what's the depth of the liquidity, right, what's the

0:13:58.559 --> 0:14:04.199
<v Speaker 1>what's the sort of proportion of pure momentum driven speculation

0:14:04.400 --> 0:14:09.080
<v Speaker 1>to fundamental analysis and investment. Like how many people are huddling,

0:14:09.360 --> 0:14:13.440
<v Speaker 1>as it were, not merely because they think that if

0:14:13.480 --> 0:14:17.120
<v Speaker 1>they outlast everybody else there will be gains for them,

0:14:17.160 --> 0:14:20.800
<v Speaker 1>but because they're making a more fundamental bet on something else.

0:14:21.320 --> 0:14:26.000
<v Speaker 1>I look at the frankly, the quality of the executive

0:14:26.040 --> 0:14:29.600
<v Speaker 1>bench of a lot of these crypto companies, Like, you know,

0:14:29.640 --> 0:14:31.960
<v Speaker 1>what is what is the experience of the folks involved,

0:14:32.000 --> 0:14:35.240
<v Speaker 1>What are their backgrounds? How do they spend a lot

0:14:35.280 --> 0:14:38.000
<v Speaker 1>of time on Twitter raging against the machine or are

0:14:38.040 --> 0:14:41.280
<v Speaker 1>they doing work? You know, it's it's things that you

0:14:41.360 --> 0:14:45.840
<v Speaker 1>tend to from a more traditional perspective. You see a

0:14:45.880 --> 0:14:49.360
<v Speaker 1>lot of activity happening in crypto that makes you think

0:14:50.360 --> 0:14:53.640
<v Speaker 1>that there is a degree of un seriousness which can

0:14:53.680 --> 0:14:57.000
<v Speaker 1>be funny but is also troubling. Um I'll give an example.

0:14:57.280 --> 0:15:01.400
<v Speaker 1>You know, just this year, we have seen a tremendous

0:15:01.480 --> 0:15:05.880
<v Speaker 1>number of outages and downtime across you know, even some

0:15:05.920 --> 0:15:07.800
<v Speaker 1>of the biggest players in the space. And it'll be

0:15:07.840 --> 0:15:09.960
<v Speaker 1>while you can't log in for x amount of time,

0:15:10.080 --> 0:15:13.960
<v Speaker 1>or you can't withdraw or you can't liquidate this particular position,

0:15:14.360 --> 0:15:16.120
<v Speaker 1>or you've been locked out of your accounts for X

0:15:16.200 --> 0:15:19.360
<v Speaker 1>number of days. And if you are a person who's

0:15:19.400 --> 0:15:21.880
<v Speaker 1>used to sort of technology, and perhaps some of our

0:15:21.920 --> 0:15:24.200
<v Speaker 1>listeners might remember when if you use Twitter, you would

0:15:24.200 --> 0:15:26.080
<v Speaker 1>see the fail whale, like every five minutes, it's like,

0:15:26.080 --> 0:15:28.920
<v Speaker 1>oh Twitter is down again, and it's like that that

0:15:28.960 --> 0:15:30.920
<v Speaker 1>can be funny for a while, but then you start

0:15:30.960 --> 0:15:32.520
<v Speaker 1>to have people who are like, hang on a minute,

0:15:32.840 --> 0:15:36.720
<v Speaker 1>this is my primary bank account, or I have positions

0:15:36.720 --> 0:15:39.120
<v Speaker 1>that at risk of being liquidated here because the market

0:15:39.160 --> 0:15:41.080
<v Speaker 1>is moving against me and I can't log into my

0:15:41.160 --> 0:15:45.200
<v Speaker 1>account to adjust an adapt accordingly, you start to move

0:15:45.400 --> 0:15:50.240
<v Speaker 1>into one actually needing customer service, like actually needing to

0:15:50.320 --> 0:15:52.920
<v Speaker 1>be able to service and meet the needs of your

0:15:52.960 --> 0:15:55.800
<v Speaker 1>customers who might be facing some kind of difficulty and

0:15:55.880 --> 0:16:00.680
<v Speaker 1>to way better reliability and uptime. Right, It's like you

0:16:00.720 --> 0:16:04.440
<v Speaker 1>get past the point of trillions of dollars where joking

0:16:04.480 --> 0:16:07.560
<v Speaker 1>around on your social platforms while people are locked out

0:16:07.560 --> 0:16:09.920
<v Speaker 1>of their accounts goes from like funny, ha ha, we're

0:16:09.960 --> 0:16:14.200
<v Speaker 1>all in this together to just unprofessional and inappropriate. You know, Stacey,

0:16:14.240 --> 0:16:16.280
<v Speaker 1>I want to sort of unpack something you said earlier

0:16:16.280 --> 0:16:18.680
<v Speaker 1>on there in that answer, and um, it really it's

0:16:18.680 --> 0:16:21.440
<v Speaker 1>to an interesting quote I saw recently, and I wish

0:16:21.440 --> 0:16:23.880
<v Speaker 1>I had written down who who tweeted it or said it,

0:16:23.920 --> 0:16:27.800
<v Speaker 1>but it was it was basically the notion that defied

0:16:27.800 --> 0:16:31.760
<v Speaker 1>the centralized finance is a solution in search of a problem.

0:16:31.920 --> 0:16:34.160
<v Speaker 1>And you know, people kind of been saying that about

0:16:34.160 --> 0:16:36.360
<v Speaker 1>crypto all all along. But I do think you know,

0:16:36.400 --> 0:16:41.080
<v Speaker 1>it's it's ah, you know something that is a criticism

0:16:41.080 --> 0:16:43.920
<v Speaker 1>of DeFi. That's that's worth talking about, you know, you know,

0:16:44.000 --> 0:16:46.560
<v Speaker 1>the real believers and DeFi will tell you, well, it's

0:16:46.640 --> 0:16:49.880
<v Speaker 1>you know, it's opens the doors to the unbanked and

0:16:50.040 --> 0:16:52.880
<v Speaker 1>to the populations that have been sort of neglected by

0:16:52.960 --> 0:16:56.680
<v Speaker 1>traditional financial services. Is there validity to that? I mean,

0:16:56.760 --> 0:16:59.200
<v Speaker 1>is that sort of just the nice bow you put

0:16:59.240 --> 0:17:01.440
<v Speaker 1>on top of a real gambler's market to make it

0:17:01.480 --> 0:17:03.680
<v Speaker 1>look like, you know, it's a virtue signal? It a

0:17:03.720 --> 0:17:06.399
<v Speaker 1>little bit, But how do you think of that, you know,

0:17:06.440 --> 0:17:09.639
<v Speaker 1>the whole world of the centralized finance and you know

0:17:09.720 --> 0:17:13.600
<v Speaker 1>the ability to to solve real world problems that people

0:17:13.720 --> 0:17:16.959
<v Speaker 1>might be having with the traditional financial system. Sure, if

0:17:17.000 --> 0:17:19.439
<v Speaker 1>I put my curious and also skeptical hat on for

0:17:19.480 --> 0:17:21.399
<v Speaker 1>a second. I think back to a couple of things.

0:17:21.440 --> 0:17:24.320
<v Speaker 1>I think back to when people were like why do

0:17:24.359 --> 0:17:28.280
<v Speaker 1>we need email? Fox machines are great and then or

0:17:28.560 --> 0:17:31.480
<v Speaker 1>or like this internet thing will never take off, or

0:17:32.000 --> 0:17:36.640
<v Speaker 1>video chatting never gonna need that we were in person constantly, right,

0:17:36.720 --> 0:17:40.800
<v Speaker 1>Like there's always a moment when you are standing at

0:17:41.440 --> 0:17:45.880
<v Speaker 1>a technological fork in the road where whatever you are

0:17:45.920 --> 0:17:51.080
<v Speaker 1>doing right now seems still fine, adequate, appropriate, well suited

0:17:51.119 --> 0:17:53.280
<v Speaker 1>to whatever. The problem is that anything that isn't that

0:17:53.280 --> 0:17:57.360
<v Speaker 1>seems ridiculous, right, And I think there are certain there

0:17:57.440 --> 0:18:00.119
<v Speaker 1>is a risk in in some of the discussion of

0:18:00.200 --> 0:18:04.280
<v Speaker 1>Defy that is that idea of what we have now

0:18:04.359 --> 0:18:07.000
<v Speaker 1>is fine, Like what you're talking about is overly complicated

0:18:07.040 --> 0:18:09.760
<v Speaker 1>and doesn't make any sense and it's never gonna work, right,

0:18:10.080 --> 0:18:14.120
<v Speaker 1>And now we say this while recording on zoom in

0:18:14.119 --> 0:18:17.159
<v Speaker 1>in in full video for something organized by email that

0:18:17.200 --> 0:18:20.200
<v Speaker 1>we will publish through the Internet. So I think there's

0:18:20.240 --> 0:18:22.840
<v Speaker 1>some of that, But I also think that there are

0:18:22.960 --> 0:18:28.760
<v Speaker 1>insufficiently compelling arguments for some of the valuations and some

0:18:28.920 --> 0:18:34.480
<v Speaker 1>of the claims that we see in Defy right, Because

0:18:34.520 --> 0:18:39.119
<v Speaker 1>I think it's like you could argue that the the

0:18:39.200 --> 0:18:43.960
<v Speaker 1>mare fact of being able to offer twelve a p

0:18:44.240 --> 0:18:48.400
<v Speaker 1>y in a lowish interest rates environment is like useful

0:18:48.560 --> 0:18:52.560
<v Speaker 1>for people who are looking for yield. Right, That's that's

0:18:52.560 --> 0:18:56.520
<v Speaker 1>certainly a problem that's being solved through some applications of Defy.

0:18:56.680 --> 0:19:00.200
<v Speaker 1>You could argue that the idea of smart contract is

0:19:00.280 --> 0:19:03.120
<v Speaker 1>kind of genius actually, that you know, you have this

0:19:03.240 --> 0:19:07.919
<v Speaker 1>notion of within an agreed set of parameters and variables,

0:19:07.960 --> 0:19:11.800
<v Speaker 1>you can automate things right now that are otherwise very manual.

0:19:11.880 --> 0:19:16.520
<v Speaker 1>Any lawyers listening to this like hatesmart contracts because it's

0:19:16.520 --> 0:19:20.119
<v Speaker 1>so potentially ultimating them out of jobs. But you know,

0:19:20.200 --> 0:19:23.359
<v Speaker 1>there's like lots of interesting stuff out there, But there isn't,

0:19:23.560 --> 0:19:25.800
<v Speaker 1>you know, to use a phrase from our colleague Olga Crief,

0:19:25.840 --> 0:19:29.359
<v Speaker 1>there isn't a killer app for defy yet other than like,

0:19:29.440 --> 0:19:32.840
<v Speaker 1>here's like yield farming with super attractive interest rates, or

0:19:33.000 --> 0:19:37.680
<v Speaker 1>here's a handful of particularly technical or you know, niche

0:19:37.880 --> 0:19:41.080
<v Speaker 1>uses that some people find really helpful, but for the

0:19:41.160 --> 0:19:43.240
<v Speaker 1>vast majority, their eyes glaze over when you try to

0:19:43.280 --> 0:19:46.120
<v Speaker 1>explain to them how it works. I'm glad you brought

0:19:46.200 --> 0:19:49.920
<v Speaker 1>up the fax machine. I'm so old all Donna. When

0:19:49.960 --> 0:19:53.400
<v Speaker 1>I was a baby reporter, the newspaper had a fax machine,

0:19:53.600 --> 0:19:58.399
<v Speaker 1>but like the police department didn't, and the funeral homes didn't,

0:19:58.600 --> 0:20:00.919
<v Speaker 1>So you know, I'd have to to the police station

0:20:01.000 --> 0:20:03.840
<v Speaker 1>take notes on all the police reports. You know, the

0:20:04.080 --> 0:20:06.280
<v Speaker 1>funeral home would call and and read me in about

0:20:06.280 --> 0:20:08.480
<v Speaker 1>thirty seconds, the super long o bit that that I'd

0:20:08.520 --> 0:20:11.080
<v Speaker 1>have to take down, and you know, so uh to me,

0:20:11.160 --> 0:20:13.720
<v Speaker 1>the facts machine was revolutionary when when those places starting

0:20:13.720 --> 0:20:16.200
<v Speaker 1>to get I can see where Paul Krugman was coming

0:20:16.200 --> 0:20:18.119
<v Speaker 1>from when he said, you know, the internet is is

0:20:18.160 --> 0:20:20.280
<v Speaker 1>just going to be as influential as the facts machine.

0:20:20.520 --> 0:20:25.080
<v Speaker 1>I've got it to be pretty influential. I'm imagining baby

0:20:25.280 --> 0:20:28.680
<v Speaker 1>Mike Reagan reporter. I'll bring by the fax machine here,

0:20:29.080 --> 0:20:33.240
<v Speaker 1>browner hair, you know, otherwise not the same Stacy. I

0:20:33.280 --> 0:20:36.320
<v Speaker 1>also wanted to ask you, speaking of all things defy,

0:20:36.440 --> 0:20:42.160
<v Speaker 1>there's also this trend of regular, you know, old school

0:20:42.200 --> 0:20:46.439
<v Speaker 1>traditional financial products, things like e t f s maybe

0:20:46.560 --> 0:20:49.600
<v Speaker 1>also moving into the DeFi space, or some version of

0:20:49.600 --> 0:20:52.040
<v Speaker 1>it moving into the DeFi space. I'm wondering if you're

0:20:52.080 --> 0:20:57.159
<v Speaker 1>surprised by sort of that whole world recreating itself in

0:20:57.200 --> 0:21:00.000
<v Speaker 1>the crypto world not at all. Um, you know, sort

0:21:00.000 --> 0:21:01.800
<v Speaker 1>me say this because as we said, we're basically deskmates

0:21:01.800 --> 0:21:05.000
<v Speaker 1>where I'm like everything old is new and crypto, which

0:21:05.160 --> 0:21:09.400
<v Speaker 1>is you know, the idea that in whatever you have

0:21:09.920 --> 0:21:14.320
<v Speaker 1>a starry eyed industry that's like, we're going to change

0:21:14.320 --> 0:21:16.479
<v Speaker 1>the world, but first we're going to rebuild everything we've

0:21:16.560 --> 0:21:19.159
<v Speaker 1>left behind. We're gonna make them better, but we're going

0:21:19.200 --> 0:21:23.159
<v Speaker 1>to start from recreating this infrastructure. It happens all the

0:21:23.200 --> 0:21:26.320
<v Speaker 1>time because inventing things that are genuinely new and have

0:21:26.440 --> 0:21:30.080
<v Speaker 1>never existed before is you know, super hard actually, um,

0:21:30.119 --> 0:21:33.080
<v Speaker 1>And what I what I also think is that there

0:21:33.119 --> 0:21:37.440
<v Speaker 1>are parts of crypto, there are parts of defy that

0:21:37.560 --> 0:21:43.080
<v Speaker 1>let you do certain things more efficiently potentially or you know,

0:21:43.320 --> 0:21:48.840
<v Speaker 1>with less friction, even if the underlyings are very similar. Right.

0:21:49.160 --> 0:21:51.200
<v Speaker 1>So you know, we've we've kind of looked at different

0:21:51.200 --> 0:21:56.120
<v Speaker 1>things around what would it mean if remittances didn't take

0:21:56.320 --> 0:21:59.840
<v Speaker 1>days on average but instead took hours and you could

0:21:59.880 --> 0:22:02.800
<v Speaker 1>initiate them from WhatsApp Right, You're still doing the same thing.

0:22:02.800 --> 0:22:06.000
<v Speaker 1>You're moving money across borders, but the cost of moving

0:22:06.040 --> 0:22:09.240
<v Speaker 1>that money and the convenience of moving that money is

0:22:09.240 --> 0:22:13.560
<v Speaker 1>like transformational in in its distinctiveness. And so I don't

0:22:13.680 --> 0:22:17.560
<v Speaker 1>think that the that recreating old things in a in

0:22:17.640 --> 0:22:20.080
<v Speaker 1>a with a new code of paint is necessarily a

0:22:20.119 --> 0:22:24.640
<v Speaker 1>bad thing. And it's often helpful to help skeptics migrate

0:22:24.640 --> 0:22:27.320
<v Speaker 1>along with you because somebody's like, oh, I understand E

0:22:27.400 --> 0:22:32.440
<v Speaker 1>T S, or I understand tokenization, or understand fractional shares,

0:22:33.040 --> 0:22:37.000
<v Speaker 1>and so I have now a useful mental model to

0:22:37.119 --> 0:22:39.800
<v Speaker 1>approach something that I couldn't make head or tail of before.

0:22:41.040 --> 0:22:42.760
<v Speaker 1>As they said, I wanted to get into the n

0:22:42.800 --> 0:22:45.760
<v Speaker 1>f T market a little bit. You know, it's fascinating

0:22:45.800 --> 0:22:48.479
<v Speaker 1>me because NFC has really started out as sort of this,

0:22:48.800 --> 0:22:51.440
<v Speaker 1>you know, it seemed to come from the artistic community

0:22:51.520 --> 0:22:54.920
<v Speaker 1>more than anything else, and kind of the the outsider community.

0:22:55.160 --> 0:22:58.160
<v Speaker 1>And there's obviously, you know, uh, sort of an appeal

0:22:58.440 --> 0:23:01.960
<v Speaker 1>and and uh a natural nous, a sort of I

0:23:01.960 --> 0:23:04.040
<v Speaker 1>don't know if it's it's something to feel good about.

0:23:04.040 --> 0:23:06.040
<v Speaker 1>I feel like, but then, you know, every day I

0:23:06.119 --> 0:23:09.080
<v Speaker 1>come in now and there's some corporation or some celebrity

0:23:09.400 --> 0:23:13.439
<v Speaker 1>in my inbox talking about a new corporate sponsored n

0:23:13.480 --> 0:23:17.119
<v Speaker 1>f T or some celebrity getting involved in it. It

0:23:17.160 --> 0:23:19.360
<v Speaker 1>seems to me to kind of cancel out that sort

0:23:19.400 --> 0:23:22.480
<v Speaker 1>of grassroots artist end of it. You know, is there

0:23:22.640 --> 0:23:24.840
<v Speaker 1>attention there? Do you think? And you know, I know

0:23:24.880 --> 0:23:27.240
<v Speaker 1>it's impossible to say which way it goes, but does

0:23:27.280 --> 0:23:30.159
<v Speaker 1>the sort of corporate you know, intrusion on the n

0:23:30.160 --> 0:23:32.800
<v Speaker 1>f T market kind of kind of ruin you know,

0:23:32.840 --> 0:23:34.800
<v Speaker 1>the fun on the arts side of it. This is

0:23:34.880 --> 0:23:38.920
<v Speaker 1>the absolute punk rocker in you. It's like down down

0:23:38.960 --> 0:23:44.520
<v Speaker 1>with the man him, absolutely, and so I mean it.

0:23:44.880 --> 0:23:47.119
<v Speaker 1>I'll say a couple of things about that. One is,

0:23:48.080 --> 0:23:50.040
<v Speaker 1>when people think about n f T s right now,

0:23:50.720 --> 0:23:55.600
<v Speaker 1>they often will have a visual in mind, because you know,

0:23:55.640 --> 0:24:01.639
<v Speaker 1>the thing's selling for dollars seventy million dollars. Are visual

0:24:01.800 --> 0:24:06.320
<v Speaker 1>representations that are akin to or in some cases are art, right,

0:24:06.760 --> 0:24:10.760
<v Speaker 1>So I don't necessarily consider an ape smoking a cigarette

0:24:10.960 --> 0:24:15.320
<v Speaker 1>high art, but it is it is highly visual. And

0:24:15.359 --> 0:24:18.760
<v Speaker 1>then there are some pretty cool and interesting experiments you know,

0:24:18.800 --> 0:24:21.120
<v Speaker 1>from like folks like everybody, from people to banks see

0:24:21.600 --> 0:24:24.399
<v Speaker 1>that are much more in that like fine art with

0:24:24.440 --> 0:24:28.760
<v Speaker 1>a digital perspective, um kind of persuasion. But but the

0:24:28.920 --> 0:24:33.200
<v Speaker 1>visual is not what defines the n f T right,

0:24:33.520 --> 0:24:35.919
<v Speaker 1>What defines the idea of the of an n f

0:24:35.960 --> 0:24:39.680
<v Speaker 1>T is this idea of uniqueness and that you can

0:24:39.800 --> 0:24:44.840
<v Speaker 1>only have one, not because the thing itself is not replicable,

0:24:44.880 --> 0:24:49.280
<v Speaker 1>but because there is a one to one ownership claim.

0:24:49.320 --> 0:24:53.520
<v Speaker 1>And so I do think that right now, art is

0:24:53.600 --> 0:24:58.160
<v Speaker 1>where n f t s have like captured the popular imagination,

0:24:58.960 --> 0:25:04.240
<v Speaker 1>and there is some fun outsider energy just as much

0:25:04.280 --> 0:25:07.760
<v Speaker 1>as there is you know, massive corporations like a MC

0:25:07.920 --> 0:25:10.440
<v Speaker 1>and Marvel and others being like, ha ha, we can

0:25:10.480 --> 0:25:14.399
<v Speaker 1>make more money on this. Here's a spider Man n

0:25:14.440 --> 0:25:17.040
<v Speaker 1>f T for you. But I also think n f

0:25:17.040 --> 0:25:22.600
<v Speaker 1>T s are like massively under imagined in their ultimate

0:25:22.760 --> 0:25:26.920
<v Speaker 1>potential right because it's like you could represent anything with

0:25:27.000 --> 0:25:30.080
<v Speaker 1>an n f T. It's it's it's a container for ownership.

0:25:30.520 --> 0:25:32.760
<v Speaker 1>And I think when you know, it could be drawings,

0:25:32.800 --> 0:25:35.119
<v Speaker 1>it could be music. I um, I was reading a

0:25:35.160 --> 0:25:39.399
<v Speaker 1>story that an unreleased Whitney Houston track was just sold

0:25:39.440 --> 0:25:42.760
<v Speaker 1>as an n f T. Right, It's like it is

0:25:42.800 --> 0:25:50.240
<v Speaker 1>a container that represents authenticity. And I am looking forward

0:25:50.280 --> 0:25:53.679
<v Speaker 1>to folks putting more interesting things in those containers over time.

0:25:54.240 --> 0:25:57.040
<v Speaker 1>And I'm also looking for there to be kind of

0:25:57.040 --> 0:25:59.159
<v Speaker 1>a shakeout. I mean, you know, my you and me

0:25:59.160 --> 0:26:01.000
<v Speaker 1>are probably old enough to remember when like A O

0:26:01.160 --> 0:26:05.880
<v Speaker 1>L was a thing. There you go and in addition

0:26:05.920 --> 0:26:08.240
<v Speaker 1>to all of the unused cd s with an hour

0:26:08.359 --> 0:26:10.480
<v Speaker 1>of A L access that so many of us connected

0:26:10.520 --> 0:26:14.000
<v Speaker 1>over the years, brands would like claim their A O

0:26:14.200 --> 0:26:16.760
<v Speaker 1>L identity right and they were like, we have to

0:26:16.760 --> 0:26:18.040
<v Speaker 1>set up shop on a O L. And then it

0:26:18.080 --> 0:26:19.720
<v Speaker 1>was like, well, we have to have our own dot

0:26:19.760 --> 0:26:21.879
<v Speaker 1>com presence, and it's like we have to have our

0:26:21.920 --> 0:26:24.480
<v Speaker 1>own Facebook page, we have to have our own Twitter handle.

0:26:24.800 --> 0:26:30.399
<v Speaker 1>There's always a digital brand rush to make sure that

0:26:30.520 --> 0:26:33.080
<v Speaker 1>one they have some control over their intellectual property on

0:26:33.119 --> 0:26:35.760
<v Speaker 1>whatever the hot new thing is, and to that if

0:26:35.760 --> 0:26:39.520
<v Speaker 1>there's any money to be made or any audience engagement

0:26:39.560 --> 0:26:41.359
<v Speaker 1>to be generated, that they don't miss out on it.

0:26:41.800 --> 0:26:44.520
<v Speaker 1>And then there's a shakeout right where the brands who

0:26:44.640 --> 0:26:47.800
<v Speaker 1>understand how to like interact on that platform survive and

0:26:47.880 --> 0:26:52.800
<v Speaker 1>the ones who don't don't. So I I it's a

0:26:52.840 --> 0:26:55.320
<v Speaker 1>great point about sort of the potential of of what

0:26:55.400 --> 0:26:57.119
<v Speaker 1>an n f T can be. I always bring up

0:26:57.160 --> 0:27:01.360
<v Speaker 1>the notion of the z racing, you know, based digital

0:27:01.400 --> 0:27:06.199
<v Speaker 1>thoroughbred horses that can race each other and can breed

0:27:06.480 --> 0:27:09.320
<v Speaker 1>and you know, sort of recreating the whole horse racing

0:27:09.320 --> 0:27:11.920
<v Speaker 1>industry in n f T. Whenever I talk about it

0:27:12.000 --> 0:27:14.440
<v Speaker 1>to like, I won't say it used the word degenerate,

0:27:14.480 --> 0:27:17.240
<v Speaker 1>but a gambling enthusiast friend of mine there. You know,

0:27:17.640 --> 0:27:19.280
<v Speaker 1>they may roll their eyes at the notion of n

0:27:19.320 --> 0:27:23.200
<v Speaker 1>f T S, but then you mentioned that and then explained, right,

0:27:23.240 --> 0:27:28.320
<v Speaker 1>but horse racing Okay, now this is this changes everything. Yeah.

0:27:28.320 --> 0:27:29.560
<v Speaker 1>I want to give a shout out to my in

0:27:29.640 --> 0:27:32.639
<v Speaker 1>laws who just last year got rid of their A

0:27:32.800 --> 0:27:36.479
<v Speaker 1>O L dial up internet. Wow. I know, I know

0:27:36.560 --> 0:27:38.480
<v Speaker 1>they've been paying all these years. I think it was

0:27:38.520 --> 0:27:41.720
<v Speaker 1>like a monthly fee. So and there are the listeners

0:27:41.760 --> 0:27:46.200
<v Speaker 1>of the podcast, So shout out to the in laws. Hello,

0:27:46.560 --> 0:27:52.520
<v Speaker 1>shout out. But just to wrap everything up, obviously a

0:27:52.560 --> 0:27:54.880
<v Speaker 1>big through line here is that there were all these

0:27:54.880 --> 0:27:58.320
<v Speaker 1>new people who entered the market for whatever reason, as

0:27:58.359 --> 0:28:00.720
<v Speaker 1>you laid out at the start out of the show,

0:28:00.960 --> 0:28:04.000
<v Speaker 1>and I know we are constantly thinking about, just as

0:28:04.040 --> 0:28:06.680
<v Speaker 1>we are with the stock market, thinking about whether or

0:28:06.720 --> 0:28:10.080
<v Speaker 1>not these new investors are going to stick around. I

0:28:10.119 --> 0:28:13.520
<v Speaker 1>know for a while the idea was that as economies

0:28:13.840 --> 0:28:16.880
<v Speaker 1>everywhere start to reopen, that people will become less interested.

0:28:16.960 --> 0:28:20.280
<v Speaker 1>There won't be as much stimulus, etcetera, etcetera. So do

0:28:20.359 --> 0:28:24.040
<v Speaker 1>you think that this huge new wave of investors is

0:28:24.080 --> 0:28:27.840
<v Speaker 1>here to stay. I think every generation looks for a

0:28:27.840 --> 0:28:31.240
<v Speaker 1>place to put their money. And I also think that

0:28:31.320 --> 0:28:35.080
<v Speaker 1>it's never been true that investing is a solitary act,

0:28:35.600 --> 0:28:39.480
<v Speaker 1>because I've certainly read a lot of coverage that is like, oh,

0:28:39.520 --> 0:28:42.000
<v Speaker 1>you know, they're just saying that it's about community, but

0:28:42.040 --> 0:28:44.600
<v Speaker 1>it's actually just about money. Like yeah, but you know,

0:28:44.680 --> 0:28:48.160
<v Speaker 1>fund managers in the mad Men era, we're all trying

0:28:48.200 --> 0:28:52.560
<v Speaker 1>to impress their smoking buddies with like whatever, whatever their

0:28:52.600 --> 0:28:55.960
<v Speaker 1>picks were. That there's always been an element of social

0:28:55.960 --> 0:29:00.680
<v Speaker 1>approval to portfolio management, even when new approval is the

0:29:00.720 --> 0:29:03.640
<v Speaker 1>rejection of the status clue, right, you want to be

0:29:03.680 --> 0:29:06.760
<v Speaker 1>the contrarian, you want to be the bear in a

0:29:06.880 --> 0:29:11.880
<v Speaker 1>bowl market. And so I think when people underestimate the

0:29:11.920 --> 0:29:15.640
<v Speaker 1>social and community elements of crypto, they miss a very

0:29:15.760 --> 0:29:20.920
<v Speaker 1>large part of the story because unlike you know, the

0:29:20.960 --> 0:29:24.840
<v Speaker 1>previous times when your social universe will like your fellow

0:29:24.840 --> 0:29:26.520
<v Speaker 1>men at the country club, because let's be clear, there

0:29:26.560 --> 0:29:30.040
<v Speaker 1>are mostly no woman there. Now it's the five thousand

0:29:30.160 --> 0:29:33.560
<v Speaker 1>people in the discord with you, right, and they can

0:29:33.600 --> 0:29:35.280
<v Speaker 1>be all over the world, and they're going to come

0:29:35.360 --> 0:29:37.760
<v Speaker 1>at things from different places, and that is you know,

0:29:37.920 --> 0:29:41.240
<v Speaker 1>discord is it's a big chat for him. It's like slack,

0:29:41.600 --> 0:29:43.800
<v Speaker 1>it's like a well, a messenger, but it's a place

0:29:43.800 --> 0:29:47.040
<v Speaker 1>where people are communicating, and it's it's built into how

0:29:47.080 --> 0:29:49.720
<v Speaker 1>we live our lives. And I don't think that communication

0:29:49.800 --> 0:29:51.640
<v Speaker 1>is going to go away. And I don't think the

0:29:51.680 --> 0:29:57.960
<v Speaker 1>expectation of I'm going to ask perfect strangers what gotchi?

0:29:58.000 --> 0:30:02.280
<v Speaker 1>They're gonna buy U? I don't think that's going away either.

0:30:02.480 --> 0:30:05.560
<v Speaker 1>And so even if we see a major shakeout, I mean,

0:30:05.600 --> 0:30:09.040
<v Speaker 1>like we are down again from the high um, all

0:30:09.080 --> 0:30:12.760
<v Speaker 1>of this money still needs places to go and folks.

0:30:12.880 --> 0:30:15.080
<v Speaker 1>So yeah, sure some folks will reallocate them. They be

0:30:15.080 --> 0:30:17.360
<v Speaker 1>like I can't handle this volatility and buy some bonds.

0:30:17.760 --> 0:30:22.520
<v Speaker 1>But I don't think it's going to disappear just because

0:30:23.040 --> 0:30:24.760
<v Speaker 1>some people have moved on to the next thing. Like

0:30:25.160 --> 0:30:27.400
<v Speaker 1>there are signs, you know, even with what I said

0:30:27.400 --> 0:30:29.959
<v Speaker 1>about the relative immaturity of the asset class, there are

0:30:29.960 --> 0:30:33.720
<v Speaker 1>absolutely signs of institutionalization. Right, you mentioned e t s. Right,

0:30:33.720 --> 0:30:36.800
<v Speaker 1>there are so many more ways to get exposure to

0:30:36.960 --> 0:30:42.000
<v Speaker 1>something that is still offering really impressive returns and yields

0:30:42.000 --> 0:30:44.240
<v Speaker 1>compared with you know, lots of other things out there.

0:30:59.600 --> 0:31:01.800
<v Speaker 1>All it's basically before we get to our crazy things

0:31:01.960 --> 0:31:03.680
<v Speaker 1>of the year, not just the week. I think we've

0:31:03.680 --> 0:31:06.040
<v Speaker 1>got to do over the year this time, just briefly.

0:31:06.080 --> 0:31:07.920
<v Speaker 1>What so, where do you see the whole plot line

0:31:07.960 --> 0:31:11.480
<v Speaker 1>going for crypto? And you know, both the regulatory front

0:31:11.480 --> 0:31:14.760
<v Speaker 1>and just the the space itself, you know what, I know,

0:31:14.800 --> 0:31:17.800
<v Speaker 1>it's impossible. It's such a fast moving space to try

0:31:17.840 --> 0:31:19.320
<v Speaker 1>to predict what I feel like if I could answer

0:31:19.320 --> 0:31:22.760
<v Speaker 1>that question, i'd be I'd be a hedge fund. Fair enough,

0:31:22.960 --> 0:31:26.880
<v Speaker 1>fair enough, you know, the journalist. But I do think

0:31:27.040 --> 0:31:29.440
<v Speaker 1>the biggest open question in crypto is what a regulator

0:31:29.480 --> 0:31:31.960
<v Speaker 1>is going to do. You know, I don't think it's

0:31:32.000 --> 0:31:34.640
<v Speaker 1>going to be an all or nothing. It's all all

0:31:34.720 --> 0:31:36.800
<v Speaker 1>in in the in Salvador way or all against in

0:31:36.840 --> 0:31:39.880
<v Speaker 1>the China way. I think there's and I actually think

0:31:39.920 --> 0:31:42.760
<v Speaker 1>that is much harder in some ways, because it means

0:31:42.800 --> 0:31:44.480
<v Speaker 1>if you're interested in this space, you have to become

0:31:44.520 --> 0:31:47.600
<v Speaker 1>an expert on the regulatory regimes of like fifty different

0:31:47.640 --> 0:31:51.280
<v Speaker 1>governments and you know, an equal number of central banks,

0:31:51.360 --> 0:31:54.680
<v Speaker 1>but the amounts of uncertainty over whether just in state

0:31:54.680 --> 0:31:56.600
<v Speaker 1>by state in the US, for example, you are allowed

0:31:56.640 --> 0:31:59.560
<v Speaker 1>to like access meta mask or some other kind of

0:31:59.560 --> 0:32:03.719
<v Speaker 1>wallets is considerable, and that is certainly weighing on consumer

0:32:03.760 --> 0:32:07.360
<v Speaker 1>access because institutional investors will always find ways around um

0:32:07.520 --> 0:32:10.200
<v Speaker 1>whatever regulations are. And then I would say the second

0:32:10.240 --> 0:32:13.040
<v Speaker 1>thing is we'll probably start to see some price normalization

0:32:13.440 --> 0:32:16.200
<v Speaker 1>across various types of asset classes. And I don't think

0:32:16.200 --> 0:32:18.560
<v Speaker 1>the price normalization necessarily means we're going to decline in

0:32:18.560 --> 0:32:21.880
<v Speaker 1>another for I think there's going to be more of

0:32:22.320 --> 0:32:25.959
<v Speaker 1>a reliable median for certain types of things. You know,

0:32:26.040 --> 0:32:28.400
<v Speaker 1>like the the NFC market right now is such a barbell.

0:32:28.840 --> 0:32:33.840
<v Speaker 1>It's like hundreds of millions of dollars or two. It's

0:32:33.920 --> 0:32:37.719
<v Speaker 1>like and there's there's you know, significant concentration on the

0:32:37.760 --> 0:32:40.760
<v Speaker 1>two end, and a handful of examples on the hundreds

0:32:40.760 --> 0:32:43.800
<v Speaker 1>of millions of dollars, and and that's not super sustainable

0:32:43.840 --> 0:32:47.040
<v Speaker 1>or attractive or interesting, right Like it's it's hard to

0:32:47.080 --> 0:32:51.040
<v Speaker 1>become a mass market product if you either offer very

0:32:51.120 --> 0:32:53.520
<v Speaker 1>little or you offer a ton, but only if you

0:32:53.600 --> 0:32:57.160
<v Speaker 1>have significance capital too to guess into that space. And

0:32:57.200 --> 0:32:59.960
<v Speaker 1>so I think we'll probably start to see a little

0:33:00.040 --> 0:33:02.640
<v Speaker 1>bit more of a shake out there, just so things

0:33:02.680 --> 0:33:04.880
<v Speaker 1>kind of settled to a place that make more intuitive

0:33:04.880 --> 0:33:08.880
<v Speaker 1>sense to folks. Tiden up your straight jackets. It's time

0:33:09.040 --> 0:33:13.200
<v Speaker 1>for the craziest things we saw in markets this week.

0:33:13.520 --> 0:33:16.360
<v Speaker 1>Stand clear of the craziest things we saw this year.

0:33:17.040 --> 0:33:20.840
<v Speaker 1>What's the craziest crypto or other story in markets he

0:33:20.880 --> 0:33:24.040
<v Speaker 1>saw this year? Well, I've been thinking a lot about

0:33:24.120 --> 0:33:28.160
<v Speaker 1>this because obviously I covered a lot of them, and

0:33:28.200 --> 0:33:30.080
<v Speaker 1>it was really hard to make up my mind. But

0:33:30.240 --> 0:33:33.880
<v Speaker 1>something that I read recently is sticking out, and Stacy

0:33:33.960 --> 0:33:36.719
<v Speaker 1>a little bit already was alluding to this. So Stacy

0:33:36.760 --> 0:33:38.800
<v Speaker 1>earlier had said at the start of the year it

0:33:38.840 --> 0:33:41.640
<v Speaker 1>was all scams all the time, and so and so

0:33:41.880 --> 0:33:45.960
<v Speaker 1>lost their crypto keys, etcetera, etcetera. And there actually is

0:33:46.000 --> 0:33:49.480
<v Speaker 1>this amazing story from the New Yorker called half a

0:33:49.480 --> 0:33:53.440
<v Speaker 1>billion in bitcoin lost in the dump. So my second

0:33:53.480 --> 0:33:55.960
<v Speaker 1>shout out today that one goes out to the New Yorker.

0:33:56.040 --> 0:33:58.920
<v Speaker 1>It's an amazing story of this person who claims to

0:33:58.960 --> 0:34:02.480
<v Speaker 1>be the fifth person to have been mining bitcoin like

0:34:02.600 --> 0:34:07.760
<v Speaker 1>way way long ago, and he unfortunately lost his hard

0:34:07.840 --> 0:34:11.239
<v Speaker 1>drive that has all the information on it. So he's

0:34:11.920 --> 0:34:15.799
<v Speaker 1>trying so hard to literally dig it out from a

0:34:15.920 --> 0:34:19.719
<v Speaker 1>dump in England. Is that the guy he's like in Wales? Yeah? Right,

0:34:19.760 --> 0:34:22.040
<v Speaker 1>I remember reading about that. Yeah. And he's trying to

0:34:22.040 --> 0:34:25.640
<v Speaker 1>the UK, trying to pay off the operator to let

0:34:25.680 --> 0:34:28.520
<v Speaker 1>him in with the metal. I mean, is finding it though,

0:34:28.560 --> 0:34:31.399
<v Speaker 1>But it's something like a few hund million dollars worth

0:34:32.239 --> 0:34:37.359
<v Speaker 1>five it's I think it's five hundred million dollars right, yeah, So,

0:34:37.920 --> 0:34:40.480
<v Speaker 1>but it's amazing he has all these blueprints for how

0:34:40.520 --> 0:34:42.440
<v Speaker 1>he's going to dig it up little by little and

0:34:42.480 --> 0:34:45.399
<v Speaker 1>have it go through metal detectors and all these people

0:34:45.400 --> 0:34:46.920
<v Speaker 1>who are going to be working on it. Who's going

0:34:46.960 --> 0:34:50.400
<v Speaker 1>to get a cut and you just you you feel

0:34:50.840 --> 0:34:53.960
<v Speaker 1>his pain. But at the same time, I love the

0:34:53.960 --> 0:34:58.799
<v Speaker 1>idea of it being about, you know, him actually just

0:34:58.920 --> 0:35:02.320
<v Speaker 1>losing a little computer a piece, so, but an actual

0:35:02.400 --> 0:35:05.360
<v Speaker 1>physical thing that he lost. If I were him, my

0:35:05.440 --> 0:35:08.480
<v Speaker 1>first line of questioning would be, like, did any employees

0:35:08.520 --> 0:35:11.200
<v Speaker 1>of the dump retire early? I I want to know

0:35:11.200 --> 0:35:13.480
<v Speaker 1>who they It's a really good point. That's that's who

0:35:13.560 --> 0:35:16.760
<v Speaker 1>I That would my investigation would start there. But Stacy,

0:35:16.800 --> 0:35:19.520
<v Speaker 1>how about you? I don't suppose you saw anything crazy?

0:35:19.600 --> 0:35:22.160
<v Speaker 1>And crypto markets show every everything is super chill all

0:35:22.160 --> 0:35:27.400
<v Speaker 1>the time. Um, in October, if there were a bunch

0:35:27.440 --> 0:35:29.879
<v Speaker 1>of headlines about the fact that, like, whoa, this crypto punk,

0:35:29.880 --> 0:35:31.279
<v Speaker 1>which is a collection of n f T has just

0:35:31.280 --> 0:35:34.600
<v Speaker 1>sold for five hundred million dollars. What's happening? Mind is

0:35:34.600 --> 0:35:36.920
<v Speaker 1>blown And then we're like, wait a minute, the person

0:35:36.960 --> 0:35:39.440
<v Speaker 1>who sold and bought the crypto punk is of the

0:35:39.560 --> 0:35:43.600
<v Speaker 1>same it was. You know, it was wastrating, right, and

0:35:43.680 --> 0:35:45.600
<v Speaker 1>like the person was doing it for the lulls whatever.

0:35:46.040 --> 0:35:49.120
<v Speaker 1>But it was enabled by a kind of a smart contract,

0:35:49.120 --> 0:35:52.080
<v Speaker 1>a flash loan, right, which is the idea that you

0:35:52.120 --> 0:35:55.200
<v Speaker 1>could just in the space of seconds, like the time

0:35:55.200 --> 0:35:59.120
<v Speaker 1>it takes to perform that transaction on the blockchain, put

0:35:59.239 --> 0:36:03.680
<v Speaker 1>something up for sale, borrow a bunch of money to

0:36:04.120 --> 0:36:07.759
<v Speaker 1>buy it back, and then repay that money in the

0:36:07.800 --> 0:36:11.279
<v Speaker 1>process of selling it back to yourself. Like this just

0:36:11.560 --> 0:36:17.319
<v Speaker 1>with computer code was fascinating to me because I thought, okay, one,

0:36:17.520 --> 0:36:19.920
<v Speaker 1>here's the world for which regulates is a completely unprepared

0:36:20.920 --> 0:36:24.880
<v Speaker 1>and it's just sort of another example of you know,

0:36:25.640 --> 0:36:28.200
<v Speaker 1>there will be some folks who always have alpha because

0:36:28.239 --> 0:36:32.200
<v Speaker 1>they understand different ways to end run the system, right

0:36:32.360 --> 0:36:34.200
<v Speaker 1>and you know, you could argue that wash trading is

0:36:34.239 --> 0:36:35.880
<v Speaker 1>kind of victim lest crime. The I R S might

0:36:35.920 --> 0:36:39.560
<v Speaker 1>have perspectives on that, the mere fact that the cost

0:36:39.600 --> 0:36:42.640
<v Speaker 1>of that transaction was minimal to this person because like

0:36:42.680 --> 0:36:45.239
<v Speaker 1>flash loans are generally on collateralized, like you don't have

0:36:45.280 --> 0:36:46.799
<v Speaker 1>to put up a bunch of money to borrow it.

0:36:47.120 --> 0:36:49.800
<v Speaker 1>Like what what are the if you think expansively about

0:36:49.800 --> 0:36:52.360
<v Speaker 1>what that might mean for more interesting transactions. It was

0:36:52.360 --> 0:36:55.279
<v Speaker 1>a little bit mind blowing that. Yeah, and it goes

0:36:55.320 --> 0:36:57.280
<v Speaker 1>back to your point of everything old is new again.

0:36:57.360 --> 0:36:58.959
<v Speaker 1>I think I was supposed to write a story about

0:36:58.960 --> 0:37:01.040
<v Speaker 1>that night. Prodecy we do about it? Then that you

0:37:01.080 --> 0:37:06.920
<v Speaker 1>were busy is another year, the new opportunity for more

0:37:07.000 --> 0:37:09.640
<v Speaker 1>balls to drop. So we're recording this a couple of

0:37:09.640 --> 0:37:11.839
<v Speaker 1>weeks early here, right in the middle of December, and

0:37:11.920 --> 0:37:16.240
<v Speaker 1>mine was just the really just a couple of nights ago, Stacy,

0:37:16.320 --> 0:37:18.279
<v Speaker 1>when we're sitting there and you all of a sudden said,

0:37:18.400 --> 0:37:21.120
<v Speaker 1>the price of bitcoin is up about eight million percent

0:37:21.200 --> 0:37:24.120
<v Speaker 1>or something. I forget the exact number, but some data

0:37:24.200 --> 0:37:27.879
<v Speaker 1>era happened I guess somewhere between coin base and coin

0:37:28.080 --> 0:37:34.080
<v Speaker 1>market cap, where prices just went bananas. You know, I

0:37:34.120 --> 0:37:36.319
<v Speaker 1>don't even know what the top tick of bitcoin was

0:37:36.360 --> 0:37:38.960
<v Speaker 1>and that that error, but it was. It was something

0:37:39.000 --> 0:37:41.040
<v Speaker 1>in the hundreds of millions, I think, maybe even in

0:37:41.080 --> 0:37:43.880
<v Speaker 1>the billions, and even shiba you know. I think at

0:37:43.880 --> 0:37:46.560
<v Speaker 1>one point it was worth twenty nine thousand dollars uh

0:37:46.680 --> 0:37:49.120
<v Speaker 1>per shiba, you know, which is worth way below it

0:37:49.440 --> 0:37:51.600
<v Speaker 1>a fraction of a penny. But it does, you know,

0:37:52.000 --> 0:37:54.200
<v Speaker 1>it goes back to that notion of where how the

0:37:54.239 --> 0:37:57.640
<v Speaker 1>industry needs to mature and and where it's going. I mean,

0:37:59.000 --> 0:38:01.279
<v Speaker 1>to me, what was amazing is people just left it off.

0:38:01.320 --> 0:38:04.319
<v Speaker 1>You know, people were doing screenshots of their accounts with

0:38:04.440 --> 0:38:08.560
<v Speaker 1>billions of trillionaire a trillionaire and a hundred billion dollars

0:38:08.600 --> 0:38:10.440
<v Speaker 1>in my coin basis. I mean, in a way, it

0:38:10.480 --> 0:38:13.280
<v Speaker 1>makes me think, well, the users kind of have matured

0:38:13.440 --> 0:38:16.040
<v Speaker 1>enough to know an error when they see it. So

0:38:16.120 --> 0:38:18.160
<v Speaker 1>maybe maybe that's part of it, is the user base.

0:38:18.600 --> 0:38:20.480
<v Speaker 1>Now it's not just sort of the plumbing of the

0:38:20.520 --> 0:38:23.600
<v Speaker 1>market and everything, but the users themselves kind of know

0:38:23.800 --> 0:38:25.560
<v Speaker 1>when they say it, you know what I mean. I

0:38:25.600 --> 0:38:28.440
<v Speaker 1>think I think the reason that that was okay was

0:38:28.480 --> 0:38:33.600
<v Speaker 1>that everything went up. That's true, I mean, because you know,

0:38:33.960 --> 0:38:38.080
<v Speaker 1>imagine let's say everything had massively gone down and that

0:38:38.160 --> 0:38:42.440
<v Speaker 1>had triggered like liquidations for instance, or you know, or

0:38:42.480 --> 0:38:45.799
<v Speaker 1>like blew through someone's stop orders. We might have been

0:38:45.800 --> 0:38:48.600
<v Speaker 1>having a very different conversation yesterday. Then that would not

0:38:48.640 --> 0:38:51.279
<v Speaker 1>be as funny, would not have been as a funny joke. Well,

0:38:51.360 --> 0:38:54.080
<v Speaker 1>I think instinctively, you know, that's kind of what you

0:38:54.160 --> 0:38:58.000
<v Speaker 1>worry about. You could you could see theoretically, you know,

0:38:58.120 --> 0:39:01.280
<v Speaker 1>something happening to cause a massive you know, dropping bitcoin

0:39:01.360 --> 0:39:05.120
<v Speaker 1>to see a massive million, ten million percent rally would seem,

0:39:05.160 --> 0:39:08.520
<v Speaker 1>you know, on its face, less pausible. I guess I know.

0:39:09.080 --> 0:39:11.640
<v Speaker 1>With that said, I don't know. I it's hard gonna

0:39:11.680 --> 0:39:16.520
<v Speaker 1>be hard to top the crazy things of words. I

0:39:16.520 --> 0:39:18.560
<v Speaker 1>hopefully I'm chexing it. We have. We've got plenty of

0:39:18.600 --> 0:39:21.960
<v Speaker 1>more crazy stories to write next year. What do you

0:39:21.960 --> 0:39:25.239
<v Speaker 1>think filled out of Yeah, for sure, no way that

0:39:25.280 --> 0:39:27.880
<v Speaker 1>it's not going to be crazy again. Stacyvil that is

0:39:27.960 --> 0:39:31.640
<v Speaker 1>most excited about bitcoin and crypto being seven because that

0:39:31.680 --> 0:39:34.520
<v Speaker 1>means she gets to work on the weekends, like she

0:39:34.520 --> 0:39:37.400
<v Speaker 1>she does not have to like figure out something like

0:39:37.520 --> 0:39:40.400
<v Speaker 1>absolutely not. My eyes go wide every time somebody brings

0:39:40.400 --> 0:39:44.319
<v Speaker 1>it up. There they go. They did just go eyes.

0:39:44.360 --> 0:39:46.080
<v Speaker 1>I think the laser beams shot out of her eyes

0:39:46.080 --> 0:39:50.560
<v Speaker 1>on that one too. Anyway, I think that's all the

0:39:50.600 --> 0:39:52.160
<v Speaker 1>time we have it. Stacy. Is so great to have

0:39:52.200 --> 0:39:53.600
<v Speaker 1>you on the show, and we're definitely gonna bring you

0:39:53.640 --> 0:39:57.799
<v Speaker 1>back a few times to make sense of all this

0:39:57.840 --> 0:40:00.520
<v Speaker 1>because it's here to stay like it or not, it's

0:40:00.560 --> 0:40:12.799
<v Speaker 1>here today exactly. Thank you Stacy a pleasure What Goes Up.

0:40:12.840 --> 0:40:14.960
<v Speaker 1>We'll be back next week. Until then, you can find

0:40:15.000 --> 0:40:18.280
<v Speaker 1>us on the Bloomberg Terminal website and app or wherever

0:40:18.320 --> 0:40:20.799
<v Speaker 1>you get your podcasts. We'd love it if you took

0:40:20.800 --> 0:40:23.080
<v Speaker 1>the time to rate and review the show on Apple

0:40:23.160 --> 0:40:26.200
<v Speaker 1>Podcasts so more listeners can find us. And you can

0:40:26.200 --> 0:40:30.160
<v Speaker 1>find us on Twitter, follow me at Reaganonymous. Will Dotta

0:40:30.239 --> 0:40:33.080
<v Speaker 1>Hirich is that Will Dota Hirich. You can also follow

0:40:33.080 --> 0:40:36.720
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Podcasts at podcast and Thank you to Charlie Pellett

0:40:36.719 --> 0:40:40.400
<v Speaker 1>of Bloomberg Radio. What Goes Up is produced by Laura Carlson.

0:40:40.880 --> 0:40:44.720
<v Speaker 1>The head of Bloomberg Podcast is Francesco Levy. Thanks for listening,

0:40:44.800 --> 0:41:02.720
<v Speaker 1>See you next time. Four