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Speaker 1: What's up, guys? How are you welcome to a Sunday morning,

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Speaker 1: week eleven of the NFL for the Daily Juice Podcast.

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Speaker 1: My name is Matt Perolt here off of Bettingpros dot

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Speaker 1: com and we're always being brought to you by bet MGM.

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Speaker 1: All right, erekap Saturday, two and two on Saturday, one

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Speaker 1: in one on Friday, one and one on Thursday. Right,

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Speaker 1: So we're in a little bit of a rut, all right,

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Speaker 1: So it's not like we're down big. We are down,

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Speaker 1: but we've gotten a couple of good days earlier in

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Speaker 1: the week. They got us some action victories and whatnot,

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Speaker 1: so overall we're up a little bit on the week,

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Speaker 1: but not much. So I want to end up Sunday

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Speaker 1: with a strong day today. So I got four plays

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Speaker 1: for you here, including the Parolt two team teaser, which

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Speaker 1: is seven and three on the year. So hopefully hit

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Speaker 1: that again and we will get to the live stream

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Speaker 1: with all of our prop bets coming up here today.

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Speaker 1: I will give you that eleven am Eastern time, eight

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Speaker 1: am Pacific time on the Betting Pros YouTube channel. If

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Speaker 1: you have not gone and subscribed to that, please do

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Speaker 1: so you want to be a subscriber to that and

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Speaker 1: you also want to enter in to win the very

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Speaker 1: cool helmet that we are giving away, autographed helmet that

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Speaker 1: I think everyone should want it. I mean, I think

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Speaker 1: everybody would be interested in having it. It's a cool

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Speaker 1: piece of memorabilia. We've given the way the Clyde Edwards

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Speaker 1: Hilaire helmet. Everybody was really psyched up about that. This

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Speaker 1: is DeVante Adams helmet that we're going to be giving

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Speaker 1: away for the packers. So, I mean, come on, it's www.

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Speaker 1: Dot bettingpros dot com slash juice. Okay, Www Dot bettingpros

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Speaker 1: dot com slash juice. You're gonna take your screenshot of

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Speaker 1: the very cool positive negative review that you're gonna give

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Speaker 1: Okay on Apple podcast or Stitcher. Take that picture when

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Speaker 1: you go over there. It says name in, last name,

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Speaker 1: first and last name, your email address, and then a

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Speaker 1: picture of your review. That's it. That's how you win

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Speaker 1: an autographed helmet from Davante Adams thanks to Betting Pros

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Speaker 1: and Pristine Auctions. So simple, easy, Get involved. Be a

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Speaker 1: subscriber to the YouTube channel and we'll give you a

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Speaker 1: fifty pluck gift card as well as winning the Davante

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Speaker 1: Adams helmet that will be pulled at the end of

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Speaker 1: the month, so hope that you guys are in there.

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Speaker 1: We're approaching four hundred reviews, so that's very very cool,

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Speaker 1: so I want to say thank you guys for that.

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Speaker 1: It's been really fun. The Discord channel has over one

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Speaker 1: thousand people who are members. If you've not joined, it's

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Speaker 1: really easy bettingpros dot com slash chat. Bettingpros dot com

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Speaker 1: slash chat, that's how you get in the Discord Channel.

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Speaker 1: And I gave out picks yesterday. We sweated a bunch

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Speaker 1: of games yesterday and well in real time going back

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Speaker 1: and forth on that Cincinnati game. Holy crap, that's why

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Speaker 1: I mean going too and two yesterday feels like a win. Right,

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Speaker 1: So we got Cincinnati correct. Sorry, we got the plus

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Speaker 1: five on notins Naty plus five Central Florida against Cincinnati.

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Speaker 1: We got that right thanks to analytics. So we got

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Speaker 1: paid back for the clot for the Nick Chubb running

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Speaker 1: out of bounds story with the minus three and a

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Speaker 1: half for the Cleveland in Cleveland Browns, So we got

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Speaker 1: a payback for that. Always remember it does come back

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Speaker 1: no matter how bad you get burned. Eventually you'll get

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Speaker 1: it back from the gods. So we got it back there.

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Speaker 1: The Iowa play was my favorite play. I don't know

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Speaker 1: if this is true or not, but somebody said they

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Speaker 1: bet seven thousand dollars. They DM me on Instagram and

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Speaker 1: said they bet seven thousand dollars on that Iowa play.

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Speaker 1: Don't do that. I mean, you can bet whatever you want,

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Speaker 1: but don't bet seven thousand dollars off of my plays.

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Speaker 1: That's not smart. But look, I liked it too, and

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Speaker 1: it was a very easy victory, so I guess I'm

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Speaker 1: very easy. But it hit covered the one easily. Penn

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Speaker 1: State sucks. They're own to five on the year, first

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Speaker 1: time in school history they're ever owed five. They're own five.

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Speaker 1: Penn State loses to Iowa at home. So the Iowa game,

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Speaker 1: we get that. The Central Florida plus five, we get that.

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Speaker 1: We get a loss on Auburn in the first half.

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Speaker 1: And that was just bo nicks Man. I thought he

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Speaker 1: was progressing in the right direction before the stoppage. I

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Speaker 1: was wrong. Of course, they covered the eleven and a

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Speaker 1: half point line right. I was petrified for that. I

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Speaker 1: had Iowa State on the lean. They won their game

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Speaker 1: in a laugher, but I didn't bet it, so we

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Speaker 1: can't count. It didn't count. Some of you guys bet

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Speaker 1: that off of the lean, so that's cool for you.

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Speaker 1: I'm happy that you cashed, but I didn't cash. And

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Speaker 1: then you know, when you're looking at games and you're

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Speaker 1: trying to figure out, you know, what games to play

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Speaker 1: and trying to figure out what side you want to

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Speaker 1: be on, you're not going to be on the right

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Speaker 1: side for everything. But you know it's two and two

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Speaker 1: is kind of like nah, a kind of an annoying situation.

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Speaker 1: So I want to be I want to finish the

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Speaker 1: week strong. I want to get some winners here. I

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Speaker 1: get four plays for you guys here in the NFL.

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Speaker 1: But before we get to the plays, first and foremost,

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Speaker 1: if you've not subscribed or gotten a betemgym account yet,

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Speaker 1: this is a chance to do. So. It's the same

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Speaker 1: read every week when it comes to NFL game so

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Speaker 1: you should know it by now. One dollar money line

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Speaker 1: any game in the NFL. If you are I bet

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Speaker 1: one dollar using the promo code Juice one hundred. If

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Speaker 1: the score a touchdown in that game, you win one

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Speaker 1: hundred dollars in free bets. Our friend Captain Jack told

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Speaker 1: you how to use those one hundred dollars in free

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Speaker 1: bets when you do get them. But one hundred bucks

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Speaker 1: in free wagers from bet MGM with the promo code

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Speaker 1: Juice one hundred if a touchdown is scored. If you

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Speaker 1: bet one dollar on the money line on either side

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Speaker 1: in any NFL game happening today, that's till you win

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Speaker 1: one hundred dollars in free bets from BETMGM. Go to

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Speaker 1: betemgm dot com for terms and conditions. You must be

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Speaker 1: twenty one years or older. And this is valid in Tennessee, Colorado, Indiana,

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Speaker 1: New Jersey, in West Virginia. Please gamble responsibly. Gambling problem

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Speaker 1: called one hundred five to two to two forty seven

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Speaker 1: hundred in Colorado, Nevada. One I heard gambler in New

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Speaker 1: Jersey in West Virginia and one one hundred and nine

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Speaker 1: with it in Indiana. The first play is a little

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Speaker 1: bit of a homer pick, but there's logic behind it.

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Speaker 1: It's okay, there's logic behind this. Patriots laying two on

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Speaker 1: the road at Houston. Patriots have won back to back games.

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Speaker 1: Interesting stat here as an underdog this year, the Houston

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Speaker 1: Texans are oher and six straight up and one in

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Speaker 1: five against the spread. Okay, oh and six straight up,

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Speaker 1: one in five against the spread. They are two point

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Speaker 1: underdogs here to the Patriots. The Patriots as a favorite,

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Speaker 1: they haven't been out standing as a favorite. They've been

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Speaker 1: decent four and five straight up on the year right

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Speaker 1: against the spread. As a favorite, they're two and three

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Speaker 1: As a road favorite. They're oh to one though, so

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Speaker 1: it's a little bit concerning. But here's the thing about

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Speaker 1: this team. For the Houston Texans, they are horrible at

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Speaker 1: stopping the run. They can't stop anybody when it comes

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Speaker 1: to stopping the run. They are dead last in the

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Speaker 1: NFL at stopping the run. Derreck Henry ran for two

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Speaker 1: hundred yards on this defense. The Patriots have a top

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Speaker 1: ten rushing offense four point eight yard per rush. And

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Speaker 1: they're getting Sony Michelle back. So now they got quo backs,

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Speaker 1: They've got Damian Harris, and they got Sony Michelle. They're

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Speaker 1: going to run the rock down the throats of the Texans. Okay,

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Speaker 1: I expect a short game. I thought about betting the

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Speaker 1: under here, but I'm a little concerned about turnovers. I'm

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Speaker 1: a little concerned about the fact that the Patriots might

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Speaker 1: be able to get big runs and big plays and

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Speaker 1: that could open up the passing attack for Cam Newton.

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Speaker 1: This is the game for the Patriots, all right, This

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Speaker 1: is the season in my mind for the Patriots. If

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Speaker 1: they win this game and they get back to five hundred,

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Speaker 1: all of a sudden, the season starts to turn, and

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Speaker 1: all of a sudden you start to see the Patriots

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Speaker 1: have a path to the playoffs and a path to

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Speaker 1: make some noise. Are they gonna get back to the

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Speaker 1: AFC title game? Probably not, but Stefan Gilmour should play

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Speaker 1: in this game. You've got an offense it's not that

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Speaker 1: great for the Houston Texans. You know. The Patriots defense

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Speaker 1: is a top ten scoring defense right now, given u

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Speaker 1: about twenty three points per game. Houston's offens only scoring

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Speaker 1: about twenty two points per game. They can pass, okay,

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Speaker 1: they got a top ten passing offense and they are

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Speaker 1: averaging seven point nine yards per pass. That's big. The

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Speaker 1: Patriots are giving up big plays in the passing game.

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Speaker 1: They're nearly last at eight point two. So yeah, there's

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Speaker 1: a concern there about the Patriots giving up big plays

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Speaker 1: in the passing attack, but they're hard to run on

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Speaker 1: and you got Gilmour back. I look at this Patriots team.

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Speaker 1: This is a must win game. Patriots win this game

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Speaker 1: by three points or more. They're only laying two points.

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Speaker 1: I'm on New England Patriots minus two. Fade me if

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Speaker 1: you want, because you can say it's a Homer pick,

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Speaker 1: but I like the Patriots pick number two. Let's go

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Speaker 1: to Vegas here where I am Raiders hosting the Chiefs.

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Speaker 1: Two explosive offenses, big plays in the passing attack in

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Speaker 1: the first game here, Kansas City is off of buy

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Speaker 1: and they are pissed. You've got the controversy going on

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Speaker 1: here about what has happened for did they take a

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Speaker 1: lap around the field or did they show up the

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Speaker 1: after winning at Arrowhead Stadium? Okay, I understand all of

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Speaker 1: that right. The first time these two teams played, it

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Speaker 1: was a forty to thirty two final. The total was

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Speaker 1: fifty four and a half and went over by seventeen

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Speaker 1: and a half points. I think the opposite may happen

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Speaker 1: this time around. I think you're gonna see the Raiders

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Speaker 1: put up a ton of points, and I mean a

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Speaker 1: ton of points. The defense has had COVID problems, but

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Speaker 1: they haven't practiced, so I think that's a problem for

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Speaker 1: the Raiders. They're getting everybody back, Okay, it's not like

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Speaker 1: they're gonna be shorthanded. Pretty much everybody who they want

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Speaker 1: to play on defense, like Abram is gonna play the

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Speaker 1: chief for the Raiders. But the Chiefs have had two

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Speaker 1: weeks to prep for this game. They're really mad, no fans,

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Speaker 1: and I keep on making this case. The Raiders are

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Speaker 1: a better outdoor, cold weather football team than the Chiefs are.

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Speaker 1: The Chiefs in a dome. This is their type of game,

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Speaker 1: this is their type of environments. They want pristine conditions,

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Speaker 1: they want a fast track. That's exactly what they're gonna

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Speaker 1: have here. I'm hesitant to lay the eight points. I

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Speaker 1: think that's too heavy. But I'm not gonna take the

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Speaker 1: eight points unless, well, no, if it gets to ten,

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Speaker 1: if by the time this game kicks off, if we're

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Speaker 1: at ten on Sunday Night football, if everyone's betting on

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Speaker 1: KC and that number rises to double digits, I'll be

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Speaker 1: on the Raiders, all right. But since the game as

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Speaker 1: of right now, I'm gonna pass on a side. But

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Speaker 1: Raider games have been going over like crazy seven to

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Speaker 1: two on the over for Raider games, all right, they

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Speaker 1: have scored a bunch of points and they've blown through things.

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Speaker 1: On the other side, the Chiefs are four and five

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Speaker 1: to the over. But I think in this condition, in

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Speaker 1: this game, with no pass rush, the Raiders get no

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Speaker 1: pass rush, Mahomes is gonna sit back there and pick

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Speaker 1: a part this team. The only way this game stays

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Speaker 1: close is if, much like the first time, the first game,

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Speaker 1: you get big plays out of Rugs, you get a

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Speaker 1: big running attack out of Jacob's and you get Waller

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Speaker 1: involved early, and the Raiders keep up. The only way

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Speaker 1: this is a game, and I think it might be

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Speaker 1: a game, is a shootout, and I think the Raiders

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Speaker 1: know that. So we're playing over fifty seven over fifty seven.

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Speaker 1: You might get fifty six and a half, that's better,

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Speaker 1: but we're going over fifty seven for the Raiders and

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs. For play number two for us here on

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Speaker 1: a Sunday, all right, play number three Indianapolis Colts. I

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Speaker 1: have been I've not been great picking this team, all right,

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Speaker 1: But there is something to be said about the way

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Speaker 1: the Colts are playing right now, and there's something to

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Speaker 1: be said about the Packers on the road in a dome.

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Speaker 1: I know DeVante Adams is playing, and I know a

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Speaker 1: lot of people really do like the Packers here in

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Speaker 1: this spot, green Bay on the road at Indianapolis. But

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Speaker 1: the Colts against the number this year have been fairly good. Okay,

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Speaker 1: they're five and four, green Bay is six and three.

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Speaker 1: But if you look at the way in two last

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Speaker 1: three games Indianapolis against the spread, they were three and

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Speaker 1: a half point favorites on the road against Detroit they

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Speaker 1: won by twenty. They were one point favorites against Baltimore

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Speaker 1: and lost by fourteen. But they were one point favorites

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Speaker 1: against the Titans on the road and they won by seventeen.

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Speaker 1: They come back home here and I think they're going

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Speaker 1: to be able to keep the ball away. I think

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Speaker 1: they play defense, and I think that they're going to

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Speaker 1: frustrate the Green Bay Packers. It's a short line. I

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Speaker 1: played it at one and a half, Okay, minus one

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Speaker 1: and a half. They need to run the ball. They

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Speaker 1: need to use that offensive line, and they got to

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Speaker 1: do what the Vikings did to the Packers. Okay, run

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Speaker 1: the football down their throats. If they can do that,

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Speaker 1: they should win this game. I'm betting on them being

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Speaker 1: able to do that. I'm betting on them to be

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Speaker 1: able to run the ball again this poor rush defense,

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Speaker 1: and then afterwards you do play action and you get

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Speaker 1: some balls over the top. Defensively, I expect this defensive line.

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Speaker 1: I know they're bit banged up, so COVID issues and whatnot,

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Speaker 1: but I think Indianapolis has a defense good enough to

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Speaker 1: keep Green Bay in check, not give up big plays,

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Speaker 1: slow down Aaron Jones. Tight game, close game. Indianapolis finds

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Speaker 1: a way at home to get a victory and to

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Speaker 1: cover this short one and a half point line. Colts

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Speaker 1: minus one and a half is the third play in

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Speaker 1: the fourth play. All these at one unit. By the way,

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Speaker 1: teaser minus one twenty five teaser here is the parult

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Speaker 1: two team teazer. We are seven and three on this.

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Speaker 1: We are taking the Vikings minus seven. Vikings minus seven,

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Speaker 1: a team that I have not loved, but they're at

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Speaker 1: home and the Dallas Cowboys are coming in here with

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Speaker 1: Andy Dalton. The Vikings have played pretty well. The Vikings

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Speaker 1: are better than their record, and I don't think this

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Speaker 1: defense for Dallas is anything. We're gonna tease the Vikings

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Speaker 1: down to one and the other side of the teaser.

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Speaker 1: This is the game everybody is picking like it already happened.

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Speaker 1: Miami at Denver. The lines three and a half. Okay,

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Speaker 1: Drew Locke is playing. I'm not saying that's a good thing.

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Speaker 1: I don't like the Denver Broncos at all. However, this

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Speaker 1: is a situational play. Miami is a warm weather team

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Speaker 1: on the road in the cold of Denver. To Attaga

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Speaker 1: Aloa is a warm weather quarterback. Grew up in Hawaii,

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Speaker 1: played at Alabama, now having to play on the road

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Speaker 1: in Denver at altitude. How many times have we seen

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Speaker 1: these types of games where a team like the Miami

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Speaker 1: Dolphins go into Denver and they lose. We saw it

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Speaker 1: with the Ravens against the Patriots. Weather matters, all right,

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Speaker 1: Not from a total perspective. I'm not saying the cold

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Speaker 1: causes the over or the under to hit. I'm talking

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Speaker 1: about who wins, who is more comfortable. Denver likes to

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Speaker 1: run the football. Coming off of a really poor performance,

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Speaker 1: they need to bounce back. I don't know if they

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Speaker 1: win the game, but I'm giving them nine and a

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Speaker 1: half points here. Taking the plus three and a half,

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Speaker 1: we're gonna tease it up to nine and a half.

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Speaker 1: I would prefer if you get four and go to ten.

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Speaker 1: If you can get to ten and get double digits

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Speaker 1: at home for Denver, I love it. But after losing

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Speaker 1: by twenty five to the Raiders, in losing by seven

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Speaker 1: to the Falcons, they come back home. Last time out,

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Speaker 1: they beat the Chargers at home. They lost by twenty

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Speaker 1: seven to the Chiefs at home. But I mean, this

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Speaker 1: is a team where in the first part of the

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Speaker 1: year they lost by two to Tennessee at home. They're

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Speaker 1: gonna run the ball. I don't think Miami's offense is

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Speaker 1: very good. I know they're seven and two against the spread.

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Speaker 1: They may win this game by seven, okay, and I'm

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Speaker 1: fine with that. Miami can go there and cover the

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Speaker 1: three and a half, that's fine. We're gonna tease this

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Speaker 1: up though, to nine and a half. We're gonna lay

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Speaker 1: one unit at minus one twenty five. So four plays

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Speaker 1: Week eleven here they are all one unit Patriots minus

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Speaker 1: two on the road at Houston, Vegas, Kansas City over

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Speaker 1: fifty seven Colts at home against the Packers minus one

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Speaker 1: and a half and the parul To team teaser seven

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Speaker 1: and three on the year one unit in MIAUS one

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Speaker 1: twenty five Vikings minus one Broncos plus nine and a

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Speaker 1: half is our teaser. I am going to tease other games,

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Speaker 1: all right. I'm just these are the official plays. I

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Speaker 1: don't know how many times there's a couple of games.

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Speaker 1: I'm really eyeballing from a teaser perspective. Okay, so I

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Speaker 1: just haven't gotten there yet. I don't want to give

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Speaker 1: up more than one teaser, but in the Discord channel,

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Speaker 1: I will talk about different teasers I'm playing. This is

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Speaker 1: a teaser weekend, guys. Okay, this weekend sucks. There are

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Speaker 1: just so many games I don't like you can play

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Speaker 1: around with. So, like you know, I'm eyeballing Jacksonville and

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Speaker 1: teasing them up to sixteen eyeball on that big time.

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Speaker 1: I'm eyeballing the Raiders and put or the Chiefs on

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Speaker 1: the road of the Raiders and kind of see what

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Speaker 1: direction that line goes. And if it goes to ten,

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Speaker 1: I'll tease the Raiders to sixteen. If it goes to

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Speaker 1: if it goes down to seven and a half, I'll

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Speaker 1: take the Raiders. I'm sorry the Chiefs, and jeez it

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Speaker 1: down to one and a half and take Kansas City.

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Speaker 1: So there's all sorts of different things I'm gonna play

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Speaker 1: around with that I haven't really come around with. But

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Speaker 1: those are the four plays I'm making officially for the podcast,

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Speaker 1: but definitely I will have more going and obviously player props,

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Speaker 1: tons of them coming up during the live stream tomorrow

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Speaker 1: morning at eleven am Eastern and eight am Pacific off

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Speaker 1: the Betting Pros YouTube channel. Got prop bets, a bunch

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Speaker 1: of props I like in that Patriot game that we'll

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Speaker 1: talk about, a couple of props that I like coming

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Speaker 1: up in this Denver game. So we'll break things down

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Speaker 1: from a prop bet perspective. All coming up here on

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Speaker 1: a Sunday morning. So this is the podcast. I'm assuming

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Speaker 1: you're listening to this either Saturday night Sunday morning. I

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Speaker 1: will get to you guys in the morning for the

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Speaker 1: live stream. Hopefully you will join us. If you haven't

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Speaker 1: joined us yet, please do so. Follow me on Twitter

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Speaker 1: for links and a reminder at sports Talk Map. I'm

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Speaker 1: at Perrault week eleven. More to come later this morning here,

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Speaker 1: but for this, the Daily Juice podcast every single morning

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Speaker 1: on betting FROs dot com, presented by bet FGM