WEBVTT - UK Jobs Squeeze, AI Disruption, and Diverging Rate Cuts

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News. Welcome to the Marin

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<v Speaker 1>Dogs Money Market Wrap, where we talk about the biggest

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<v Speaker 1>moves in the markets this week and what is driving them.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Marin Sum's Web editor at Large for Bloomberg UK Wealth, and.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm Joined Stairpek, Senior report and author of the Money

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<v Speaker 2>Distilled News.

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<v Speaker 1>Later, welcome back from more of your lovely holidays.

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<v Speaker 2>John, thank you they were excellent.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, I'm very glad to hear it, right John, Listen,

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<v Speaker 1>I know we want to talk about we want to

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<v Speaker 1>talk about interest raise, we want to wet the fair,

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<v Speaker 1>we want to talk about the UK etc. But before

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<v Speaker 1>we do anything, I want to bring you with me

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<v Speaker 1>to look at the half year report from next which

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<v Speaker 1>is always really well written, always really interesting, and always

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<v Speaker 1>focuses on stuff that everyone should be focusing on.

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<v Speaker 3>And so there's everyone.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm going to put the link in the show notes,

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<v Speaker 1>go to page twenty two and start reading, because this

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<v Speaker 1>is a bit where they look outside the performance of

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<v Speaker 1>the company to look at wider trends in the economy,

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<v Speaker 1>and they're looking at something you and I have talked

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<v Speaker 1>about a lot, John, Where are the job vacancies?

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<v Speaker 3>Going is AI affecting things? What is happening?

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<v Speaker 1>So there's a chart, I'll pop it on Twitter for

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<v Speaker 1>you shows how the continued for in UK vacancies is

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<v Speaker 1>beginning to be reflected in the actual number of employed people,

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<v Speaker 1>and those trends are echoed in NeXT's own data. They

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<v Speaker 1>tell the same story. So vacancies at their stores are

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<v Speaker 1>down thirty five percent, down thirty five percent more in

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<v Speaker 1>some stores, and applications for jobs at Next have gone

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<v Speaker 1>up by seventy six percent. So applications per vacancy to

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<v Speaker 1>work at Next are two zero point seven times higher

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<v Speaker 1>than they were two years ago. That's really something. Those

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<v Speaker 1>are big numbers. And then you look keep going down.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm telling it page twenty three now, listeners, page twenty three,

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<v Speaker 1>because you want you to go and look at this yourself.

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<v Speaker 1>He then looks at it in terms of inflation, a

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<v Speaker 1>decade of above inflation increases in the employment costs of

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<v Speaker 1>entry level work at or around the national living wage,

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<v Speaker 1>something that's been compounded by the recent increase in employees'

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<v Speaker 1>national insurance increases. So if you look at the chart,

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<v Speaker 1>you can see that since twenty fifteen, inflation has gone

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<v Speaker 1>up thirty eight percent, the national living wage has gone

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<v Speaker 1>up eighty eight percent, and the cost of part time

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<v Speaker 1>employment by having someone work for sixteen hours a week

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<v Speaker 1>has gone up one hundred and two percent.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm not surprised by those figures, but it's extraordinary whenever

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<v Speaker 2>you put it like that. Yeah, and you can also

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<v Speaker 2>sell so I guess I know he does mention the AI,

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<v Speaker 2>but it's pretty clear what the actual driver it is.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, And what he says then is is that mechanization

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<v Speaker 1>will be driven by this. So the increasing costs is

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<v Speaker 1>likely to have accelerated the rate at which businesses have mechanized.

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<v Speaker 1>The effect of automating some work is married and likely

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<v Speaker 1>amplified by the potential for AI to improve the efficiency

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<v Speaker 1>of many desk work activities. So you may say, and

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<v Speaker 1>this is another a conversation that you and I've had

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<v Speaker 1>a lot over the years, that if you make labor

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<v Speaker 1>more expensive, in some ways this isn't a bad thing,

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<v Speaker 1>because it means that there will be a huge rise

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<v Speaker 1>in productivity. So we'll have mechanization. AI will take over

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<v Speaker 1>those boring, lowly played clerical clerical jobs, and that is

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<v Speaker 1>in some ways a good thing. Will have a more

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<v Speaker 1>productive economy, except for if those people don't go on

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<v Speaker 1>to be employed elsewhere. The fact that some people are

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<v Speaker 1>more productive doesn't help the people who don't have a

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<v Speaker 1>job at all.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, no, and also you know, obviously there's a knock

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<v Speaker 2>on impact on the benefits bill as well, which because

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<v Speaker 2>part of the problem with this is, I mean a

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<v Speaker 2>lot of this messing about with the minimum wage was

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<v Speaker 2>the offset the issues raised about people being in work

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<v Speaker 2>and still haven't any get tax credits, which all goes

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<v Speaker 2>back to Gordon Brown's kind of entire revamp into the

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<v Speaker 2>UK economy for the worst. But the problem is if

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<v Speaker 2>you then, as you say, if you don't have jobs

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<v Speaker 2>for people who go in and if you're basically pricing

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<v Speaker 2>people out of employment, then the entirety just ends up

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<v Speaker 2>falling in the state. And yeah, so I do think

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<v Speaker 2>and put this way, I don't think the productivity again

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<v Speaker 2>was the driver for these changes, and I don't think

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<v Speaker 2>it's going to be something that we get out of

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<v Speaker 2>these changes for exactly the reasons you've just outlined.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, deep side it all round on from that, John,

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<v Speaker 1>and I you know, listen, as we do not have

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<v Speaker 1>a solution to this problem. We are simply pointing out

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<v Speaker 1>what is happening. If you make it employing people more expensive,

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<v Speaker 1>a fewer people will be employed, and that there are consequences.

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<v Speaker 1>Are you listening, Rachelryes, Please please occasionally listen to us.

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<v Speaker 3>We would really appreciate it. Anyway.

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<v Speaker 1>This kind of thing makes life difficult for the Bank

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<v Speaker 1>of England, though of course their mandate is not employment,

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<v Speaker 1>it is inflation. But they found themselves in a situation

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<v Speaker 1>where we have this increasingly obvious employment problem, but we

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<v Speaker 1>also have inflation.

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<v Speaker 3>So what do they do?

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<v Speaker 2>John, Well, they did, Actually, they did exactly where everyone

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<v Speaker 2>expected them we do. They've kept interest rates at four percent.

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<v Speaker 2>The chances are very high now that there won't be

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<v Speaker 2>another rate cut this year. The thing that everyone was

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<v Speaker 2>keeping an eye on this time was quantitative tightening, which

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<v Speaker 2>is the rate at which they're getting ready of the

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<v Speaker 2>gelts on their balance sheet. But even then that wasn't

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<v Speaker 2>particularly exciting because they did roughly what the market expected.

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<v Speaker 2>And I mean it's meant to reduce pressure on the

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<v Speaker 2>very far out maturities, so like thirty years gut yields,

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<v Speaker 2>ten years gult yields doesn't actually seem to have because

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<v Speaker 2>I guess the market had already praised, and them cutting

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<v Speaker 2>back on and selling the longer dated gilts, so really

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<v Speaker 2>all around sort of a damp squab and really just

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<v Speaker 2>points to what we've already, you know, already been saying

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<v Speaker 2>kind of rubbish labor market, rubbish inflation figures. I mean,

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<v Speaker 2>of course, but they kind of The next chief execus

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<v Speaker 2>said something quite similar. He was saying, I don't expect

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<v Speaker 2>the UK accordomay fall off a cliff, but I do

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<v Speaker 2>expect and you make growth and this general sense of

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<v Speaker 2>a lack of dynamism, and I think the Bank England's

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<v Speaker 2>kind of the dilemma is that it can't actually do

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<v Speaker 2>anything about any of that.

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<v Speaker 1>As an aside, I think i'd ask everyone who hasn't

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<v Speaker 1>yet to go and listen to our podcast with the

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<v Speaker 1>Professor dta Helm on energy costs. There's a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>discussion and energy costs at the end of this week,

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<v Speaker 1>because in video the CEO of Vidia pointing out that

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<v Speaker 1>if we want to have an AI revolution in the UK,

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<v Speaker 1>we're going to need to use an awful lot of gas,

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<v Speaker 1>which doesn't fit into the UK's ideas at the moment.

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<v Speaker 1>So it's worth listening to that podcast just to.

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<v Speaker 2>It was just a really good podcast.

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<v Speaker 3>It was fantastic, Yeah, very well explained.

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<v Speaker 2>And I thought, I just it's the first taine that

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<v Speaker 2>I've properly heard someone explain in normal human language. But

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<v Speaker 2>the actual problem.

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<v Speaker 1>It's so it's important to listen to that one, and

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<v Speaker 1>then to go back also and listen to the one

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<v Speaker 1>we did a few months ago with Callum Pickering where

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<v Speaker 1>we talk about the effect that expensive energy really has

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<v Speaker 1>on growth. These two things are so important at the

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<v Speaker 1>moment as we languish around the place with rubbish employment,

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<v Speaker 1>rubbish growth, highish inflation, and interest rates not quite where

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<v Speaker 1>people would have liked them to be. And I actually

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<v Speaker 1>can't remember now, which is the way, of course economists

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<v Speaker 1>like it to be. But I can no longer remember

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<v Speaker 1>what everyone was predicting interest rates in the UK would

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<v Speaker 1>be at the moment this time last year.

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<v Speaker 2>It was definitely lower. It was it started with a

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<v Speaker 2>three rather than a four.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, yeah, yeah.

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<v Speaker 1>And I will say you know that we are planning,

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<v Speaker 1>and this is very exciting for all of you listening.

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<v Speaker 3>We are planning to start videoing our podcast.

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<v Speaker 1>And with that in mind, I have been tidying my

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<v Speaker 1>bookshelf shot Corra. I know that no one knows me

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<v Speaker 1>welcome really put the word tidying and merin in the

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<v Speaker 1>same sentence. But along the way, I'm finding all sorts

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<v Speaker 1>of fascinating books which are a reminder of just how

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<v Speaker 1>many mistakes everybody makes all the time.

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<v Speaker 3>So I've got hang on.

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<v Speaker 1>So two that I pulled out this morning, The Coming

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<v Speaker 1>Collapse of China, written by Gordon G.

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<v Speaker 3>Chang in twenty twelve.

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<v Speaker 1>World on Gordon, and then in the early nineties Bill

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<v Speaker 1>I'm at the editor of The Economist Japan's Global Reach,

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<v Speaker 1>all about the amazingness of Japanese, Japan's multinational companies. That's

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<v Speaker 1>not quite so idiotic. Well recently that was I think

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<v Speaker 1>nineteen ninety two.

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<v Speaker 2>Oh, fantastic, two years after the bubble hit already.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, yeah, yeah, And of course you know Japanese companies,

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<v Speaker 1>many of them are still amazing still with still huge multinationals.

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<v Speaker 1>But obviously that was still a bubble book. So it's fascinating.

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<v Speaker 1>And I'm looking out now as you should, as should

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<v Speaker 1>you be, John, for the book that's going to tell

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<v Speaker 1>us that the AI bubble is bursting. It should come

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<v Speaker 1>out just at the very top of that, how AI

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<v Speaker 1>makes everything different, changes the world, et cetera, et cetera.

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<v Speaker 3>God, God, we're getting old. We're getting old. We've got

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<v Speaker 3>to stop this right.

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<v Speaker 2>This one's just coming out. Oh god. It was basically

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<v Speaker 2>if anyone builds this, everyone will die. So that's quite

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<v Speaker 2>a top of the market Headley, I think it is.

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<v Speaker 1>And that's exactly the kind of thing that makes me

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<v Speaker 1>really glad that most books are wrong.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, well, yeah, exactly. I would prevail that that is

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<v Speaker 2>not the keys.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, okay, let's move ourselves over to talk about the FED,

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<v Speaker 1>which actually managed to cut interest rates. So we now

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<v Speaker 1>have a divergent policies between the easy be the Bank

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<v Speaker 1>of England and and the FED, which has now cut

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<v Speaker 1>Where are we now, don't you four point two five

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<v Speaker 1>four point two five percent?

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<v Speaker 3>So hi Evan was but nonetheless coming down.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I think the interesting thing is basically the FEDS.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, obviously the US and much better economy, but

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<v Speaker 2>the Fed's kind of facing a similar issue in the

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<v Speaker 2>Bank of England and the inflation still persistent, but employment

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<v Speaker 2>looks wobbly, and so the kind of conversation around this

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<v Speaker 2>cut was because some people had thought they could either

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<v Speaker 2>they could maybe go for a big half point cut,

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<v Speaker 2>or they could even have possibly stayed flat, but most

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<v Speaker 2>people expected the quarter point and that's that's what we got.

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<v Speaker 2>And the kind of conversation around it was not that

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<v Speaker 2>different to the conversation here, which is, well, inflation is

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<v Speaker 2>still kind of a bit too strong for comfort, but

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<v Speaker 2>employment could go either way. And I think within that

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<v Speaker 2>there was a lot of talk about whether political pressure

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<v Speaker 2>would make the Fed act in a certain way, a

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<v Speaker 2>more dubbish way, obviously, because Trump would like them to

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<v Speaker 2>cut interest rates, but it's not clear to me that

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<v Speaker 2>that's actually had any effect. I mean, I think that

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<v Speaker 2>in the absence of political pressure that they've done exactly

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<v Speaker 2>this same thing. So at the moment, I feel that

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<v Speaker 2>this idea that we're going to go back to a

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<v Speaker 2>kind of nineteen seventies after Buddn's situation getting bullied by

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<v Speaker 2>you know, Richard Nixon, it doesn't strike me as holding

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<v Speaker 2>as much water as some people would like it to hold,

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<v Speaker 2>but we'll see.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, It's important to remember that, you know, the FED

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<v Speaker 1>do have more of a focus on employment than the

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<v Speaker 1>than the Bank of England, so it is slightly different.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it's easier for them rationalized rate cuts on that basis.

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<v Speaker 2>But I said, I don't think that's really to do

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<v Speaker 2>with Donald Trump getting under your own power. Skinning is

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<v Speaker 2>more about this is just what you would do in

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<v Speaker 2>this situation. You know, we put too much stock in

0:11:47.440 --> 0:11:50.600
<v Speaker 2>central bank's abilities to control the economy. Anyway. But that's

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<v Speaker 2>a that's a whole other podcast.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm looking forward to that one.

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<v Speaker 1>It's been a whole half hour complaining about central banks,

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<v Speaker 1>a central bank and their god delusions.

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<v Speaker 2>We've never done that before.

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<v Speaker 3>We have it anyway, John, I don't want to go

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<v Speaker 3>on for too long because I know you're still recovering.

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<v Speaker 1>From your holidays, so we'll leave We'll leave it there

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<v Speaker 1>and more on all of this next week.

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<v Speaker 3>Thanks for listening to this week's Merrin Talks Money Debrief.

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<v Speaker 1>If you like a show, rate review, and subscribe wherever

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<v Speaker 1>you listen to podcasts. Also be sure to follow me

0:12:26.679 --> 0:12:29.360
<v Speaker 1>and John on x or Twitter at marinas w and

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<v Speaker 1>John Underscore Stepic. This episode was produced by Samasadi Production,

0:12:33.520 --> 0:12:37.400
<v Speaker 1>sport and sound design by Moses and Questions and comments

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<v Speaker 1>on this show and all our shows are always welcome.

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<v Speaker 1>Our show email is Merri Money at Bloomberg, dot nex