WEBVTT - 2018 Predictions Scorecard 0:00:04.120 --> 0:00:07.160 Get in touch with technology with tech Stuff from how 0:00:07.200 --> 0:00:14.080 stuff Works dot Com. He there, and welcome to text Stuff. 0:00:14.120 --> 0:00:17.680 I'm your host, Jonathan Strickland. I'm an executive producer with 0:00:17.720 --> 0:00:20.759 How Stuff Works, and I heart radio and I love 0:00:20.840 --> 0:00:23.919 all things tech. And if you've been listening to my 0:00:24.040 --> 0:00:27.920 show for more than twelve months, you know that every year, 0:00:29.040 --> 0:00:31.520 with the exception of this next coming year, I make 0:00:31.560 --> 0:00:34.519 predictions about what may or may not happen in the 0:00:34.560 --> 0:00:37.479 tech world over the course of the following twelve months. 0:00:37.760 --> 0:00:40.159 And then at the end of those twelve months, I 0:00:40.240 --> 0:00:42.440 go back and I look at the predictions I had 0:00:42.479 --> 0:00:45.560 made for the year previous and see how it all 0:00:45.600 --> 0:00:50.519 turned out. Generally speaking, I do really poorly. So let's 0:00:50.520 --> 0:00:54.400 see how I did for Here's what I predicted and 0:00:54.480 --> 0:00:57.840 here's what actually happened. So the first prediction I made 0:00:58.400 --> 0:01:01.800 was that VR headsets like Oculus, Rift, HTC, Vibe and 0:01:01.840 --> 0:01:05.240 others will have another lackluster year. Now the result here 0:01:05.720 --> 0:01:09.040 is somewhat mixed. I was certainly right for the first 0:01:09.040 --> 0:01:13.200 half of those numbers were not doing well. Several news 0:01:13.240 --> 0:01:18.560 outlets and analysis firms would release reports throughout they cited 0:01:18.560 --> 0:01:22.319 declining sales for VR headsets in general throughout the year. 0:01:23.160 --> 0:01:25.720 The Oculus Go was an exception in the first half 0:01:25.720 --> 0:01:28.039 of the year. It saw some growth early on, but 0:01:28.160 --> 0:01:32.160 still not a crazy amount. Reports have cautioned that this 0:01:32.280 --> 0:01:35.240 does not mean VR is going to fizzle out again 0:01:35.400 --> 0:01:39.040 the way it did in the mid nineties, but rather 0:01:39.600 --> 0:01:43.399 that the market is still finding its foundation. It's still 0:01:43.800 --> 0:01:48.280 figuring out where it is, and there was an upturn 0:01:48.440 --> 0:01:52.720 in the third quarter in bolstered largely by holiday sales 0:01:52.960 --> 0:01:58.360 and particularly the PlayStation VR headset. Things were even worse, however, 0:01:58.480 --> 0:02:01.120 if we're talking about VR head sets that don't have 0:02:01.200 --> 0:02:04.000 a screen, so in other words, i'm talking about the 0:02:04.000 --> 0:02:09.240 headsets that you use in connection with a smartphone that 0:02:09.240 --> 0:02:13.280 that's running a particular app. So Samsung's Gear VR headset 0:02:13.440 --> 0:02:17.120 year over year sales were down by fifty eight point 0:02:17.320 --> 0:02:21.600 six per cent. That's dreadful. Some of the more recent 0:02:21.680 --> 0:02:26.840 Samsung smartphones don't even support that particular feature, which suggests 0:02:26.840 --> 0:02:30.680 the company may be extricating itself from the VR market entirely. 0:02:30.760 --> 0:02:34.960 So the only headsets that we're doing well, not even well, 0:02:35.000 --> 0:02:38.120 but weren't losing ground like that were the tethered ones. 0:02:38.720 --> 0:02:41.440 Back to that third quarter. As I said, the improvement 0:02:41.480 --> 0:02:45.120 was largely due to the PlayStation VR headset. The Sony 0:02:45.200 --> 0:02:48.600 headset helped reverse the declining trend in that third quarter 0:02:48.680 --> 0:02:51.800 of and actually pushed the market up to an eight 0:02:51.880 --> 0:02:55.840 point two percent growth year over year, or a quarter 0:02:55.880 --> 0:02:58.560 over a quarter. I guess the p S VR headsets 0:02:58.600 --> 0:03:03.040 sold four sixty eight thousand units total. That's an increase 0:03:03.040 --> 0:03:07.080 of twenty six over the previous year. Oculus would follow 0:03:07.120 --> 0:03:10.240 in second place, and HTC held up third place by 0:03:10.280 --> 0:03:12.640 the end of the year. So the third quarter growth 0:03:12.720 --> 0:03:14.600 was a nice thing to see, but that was after 0:03:14.760 --> 0:03:18.840 four straight quarters of decline and it remains to be 0:03:18.919 --> 0:03:22.000 seen if this is actually sustainable growth. So I'd say 0:03:22.440 --> 0:03:26.480 mixed results on that. The whole year wasn't a loss, 0:03:26.919 --> 0:03:31.160 but you had two quarters of decline followed by a 0:03:31.200 --> 0:03:35.920 third quarter of modest gains. Eight point as good, but 0:03:36.000 --> 0:03:40.840 it's not great, So I will give myself, you know, 0:03:40.920 --> 0:03:42.920 a thumb in the middle here, not like thumb up 0:03:43.000 --> 0:03:47.400 or thumb down. Prediction Number two was that Microsoft Mixed 0:03:47.440 --> 0:03:51.080 reality headsets, being the relative new toy on the market, 0:03:51.080 --> 0:03:53.360 will get some initial buzz in the early part of 0:03:54.400 --> 0:03:57.640 but will largely suffer the same fate as VR, and 0:03:57.760 --> 0:04:00.720 this one I was absolutely right about. Out. We saw 0:04:00.840 --> 0:04:05.000 prices get marked down a couple of times in eighteen 0:04:05.120 --> 0:04:09.120 for mixed reality headsets, and interest failed to build into 0:04:09.160 --> 0:04:11.000 a lot of actual action. There weren't a lot of 0:04:11.040 --> 0:04:15.119 sales even with the reduction in price. Now again, this 0:04:15.240 --> 0:04:17.760 may just be a case of the technology not quite 0:04:17.880 --> 0:04:20.640 being sophisticated enough to convince people to make the jump. 0:04:21.320 --> 0:04:25.760 According to research firm I d C, augmented or mixed 0:04:25.800 --> 0:04:28.919 reality sets only made up three percent of the market 0:04:29.160 --> 0:04:32.360 for these types of things. The really advanced headsets, the 0:04:32.400 --> 0:04:36.600 stuff like hollow lens or magic leaps new headset, those 0:04:36.680 --> 0:04:40.840 cost thousands of dollars and they're primarily intended for professional 0:04:41.520 --> 0:04:44.640 use or developer use, not for your average consumers. So 0:04:45.279 --> 0:04:48.320 those sets aren't meant for you and me. We're not 0:04:48.360 --> 0:04:50.520 meant to go out there to like a Best Buy 0:04:50.600 --> 0:04:52.680 or something and pick one off the store shelves and 0:04:52.720 --> 0:04:55.279 take it home and play games or use it for 0:04:55.320 --> 0:05:00.720 other applications. They're meant either for industrial use things people 0:05:00.720 --> 0:05:03.279 are using hollow lens in order to help train people 0:05:03.360 --> 0:05:07.360 to work around equipment, make repairs that kind of stuff, 0:05:07.960 --> 0:05:11.159 or They're meant for developers to get hold of the 0:05:11.200 --> 0:05:14.400 hardware and start thinking about ways that they can, you know, 0:05:14.640 --> 0:05:17.000 leverage that hardware, what kind of software can they build 0:05:17.000 --> 0:05:21.360 for it, and then sometime down the road, presumably we'll 0:05:21.400 --> 0:05:24.840 get a consumer version of those pieces of hardware. That's 0:05:24.880 --> 0:05:28.839 kind of how Oculous came about as well. So, uh, 0:05:28.880 --> 0:05:31.920 they absolutely right, big thumbs up on that one. Prediction 0:05:31.960 --> 0:05:35.200 Number three was that we would see autonomous car service 0:05:35.279 --> 0:05:38.559 rolled out for real, not just as a limited test case, 0:05:38.880 --> 0:05:41.520 and at least one market in the United States before 0:05:41.560 --> 0:05:46.560 the end of this was a pretty aggressive prediction that 0:05:46.640 --> 0:05:48.800 I made. As it turns out, I think this is 0:05:48.839 --> 0:05:51.800 another thumb in the middle situation. I would not give 0:05:51.839 --> 0:05:54.080 myself a full thumbs up, but I don't think it's 0:05:54.080 --> 0:05:57.240 a full thumbs down either, I think, if I'm being 0:05:57.279 --> 0:06:01.839 totally honest, I just ba early missed this one because 0:06:01.920 --> 0:06:06.039 Weymo one, which is a driverless car service from the 0:06:06.120 --> 0:06:11.080 Google spin off Weymo, launched in Phoenix, Arizona, so that 0:06:11.120 --> 0:06:14.359 did happen this year. However, as of the recording of 0:06:14.360 --> 0:06:17.279 this podcast, it is a very limited launch. It is 0:06:17.320 --> 0:06:21.840 not it's not widely available to anyone only people who 0:06:21.920 --> 0:06:25.000 signed up to be quote unquote early riders with the 0:06:25.120 --> 0:06:28.320 service are actually eligible to use it, and it works 0:06:28.360 --> 0:06:31.279 pretty much like any ride hailing app and that users 0:06:31.279 --> 0:06:33.679 would select a pickup point and a drop off point. 0:06:34.160 --> 0:06:35.920 The only thing that's different is that the vehicle that 0:06:35.960 --> 0:06:38.160 comes to pick them up is a driver less one, 0:06:38.200 --> 0:06:41.719 although there is a safety operator behind the wheel, because 0:06:42.839 --> 0:06:45.600 we're not quite at the point where I think any 0:06:45.640 --> 0:06:49.400 company would be comfortable and having a truly driverless cargo 0:06:49.440 --> 0:06:53.039 and pick people up and then potentially get into an 0:06:53.080 --> 0:06:55.799 accident and then you've got an enormous lawsuit on your hands. 0:06:56.279 --> 0:06:58.400 So we're not even at the point where it's a 0:06:58.480 --> 0:07:01.360 real robot car when no human behind the wheel at all. 0:07:01.800 --> 0:07:05.279 The Early writer program is limited to just four people, 0:07:05.680 --> 0:07:08.520 and the area of service is also GEO fenced, which 0:07:08.680 --> 0:07:12.040 means the cars will not go beyond certain designated areas. 0:07:12.120 --> 0:07:16.640 They their services limited to specific regions. So it's a 0:07:16.760 --> 0:07:21.080 very contained case and way Moose pitching it like it's 0:07:21.640 --> 0:07:25.160 an actual launch, But really I would say this is 0:07:25.560 --> 0:07:29.680 a pilot program, or maybe I should say a pilotless program. 0:07:30.280 --> 0:07:32.880 So with all the qualifiers, I don't think it meets 0:07:32.920 --> 0:07:38.360 the level that I had uh imagined when I made 0:07:38.400 --> 0:07:42.200 that prediction last year, but still a lot further along 0:07:42.240 --> 0:07:45.480 the what the more pessimistic version of me thought might happen. 0:07:45.560 --> 0:07:48.520 The pessimist in me thought we won't even see this 0:07:48.760 --> 0:07:52.520 much of a rollout, so to speak. Now, I think 0:07:52.560 --> 0:07:56.680 it makes way more sense to do this deployment this 0:07:56.720 --> 0:08:01.640 way rather than just try to jump in wholeheartedly. That 0:08:01.800 --> 0:08:04.520 would to me seem to be irresponsible. So I think 0:08:04.560 --> 0:08:07.920 this is the better choice. But it's really more of 0:08:07.960 --> 0:08:11.720 a closed beta program. Okay, So that was a thumb 0:08:11.760 --> 0:08:14.560 in the middle prediction. Number four. Congress will give the 0:08:14.640 --> 0:08:18.240 nod to the Disney twenty first century Fox acquisition after 0:08:18.280 --> 0:08:21.240 several months of discussion. Disney will hold a sixty percent 0:08:21.320 --> 0:08:23.760 ownership of Hulu, but we'll still go ahead and developing 0:08:23.760 --> 0:08:26.640 its own streaming service on top of that. Okay, the 0:08:26.800 --> 0:08:29.680 big thumbs up for me. I mean, I would also 0:08:29.760 --> 0:08:33.360 say this was not a particularly bold prediction, as pretty 0:08:33.440 --> 0:08:35.120 much writing on the wall kind of stuff. I mean, 0:08:35.120 --> 0:08:38.000 there there could have been pushed back from the US 0:08:38.080 --> 0:08:42.360 government on the acquisition, but based upon who's in the 0:08:42.480 --> 0:08:46.000 various branches of government, I thought that was unlikely largely 0:08:46.040 --> 0:08:50.120 because they are pretty friendly to big business. So the 0:08:50.240 --> 0:08:53.520 seventy one point three billion dollar acquisition was approved by 0:08:53.520 --> 0:08:59.040 the United States government in June of and company shareholders 0:08:59.080 --> 0:09:03.480 also approved did in July. So first the government said, 0:09:03.480 --> 0:09:05.520 we don't have any problems with this. Then they went 0:09:05.559 --> 0:09:08.000 to the shareholders and said, are you guys cool with this? 0:09:08.120 --> 0:09:11.240 They said totes, and then it went on. So technically 0:09:11.280 --> 0:09:14.160 the closing for this acquisition has not happened yet. It 0:09:14.160 --> 0:09:19.600 will actually happen on January one, nineteen. And yes, Disney 0:09:19.640 --> 0:09:22.360 does still plan to launch its own streaming service called 0:09:22.360 --> 0:09:26.439 Disney Plus, and it will also oversee Hulu. It will 0:09:26.440 --> 0:09:32.400 have controlling uh interest or controlling steak in Hulu. Meanwhile, 0:09:32.760 --> 0:09:37.720 we watch as we sadly see various Netflix Marvel series 0:09:37.800 --> 0:09:41.360 mysteriously get canceled, like you know, Daredevil and The Defenders, 0:09:42.000 --> 0:09:45.720 despite critical and public acclaim which suggests that perhaps Disney 0:09:45.760 --> 0:09:49.600 is preparing those to migrate over to a different streaming service, 0:09:49.640 --> 0:09:51.840 perhaps for a total reboot, and may not even have 0:09:51.960 --> 0:09:56.000 the same actors involved. We aren't quite sure what Hulu 0:09:56.040 --> 0:09:58.840 is going to look like following this acquisition. Even now, 0:09:59.240 --> 0:10:03.199 right now, before the acquisition is complete, Hulu technically has 0:10:03.320 --> 0:10:07.320 three major owners. There's Disney, Fox, and Comcast. There are 0:10:07.360 --> 0:10:09.240 also some other owners on top of that, but those 0:10:09.240 --> 0:10:12.200 are the three big ones. So with the acquisition, Disney 0:10:12.240 --> 0:10:15.120 will hold the majority stake, and that might mean that 0:10:15.240 --> 0:10:19.079 Comcast and NBC will be less eager to form agreements 0:10:19.120 --> 0:10:21.880 for the properties that they have to air on Hulu. 0:10:22.160 --> 0:10:24.280 It may also mean we'll see the emergence of yet 0:10:24.320 --> 0:10:27.600 another streaming service to cater to those properties. So yea, 0:10:28.520 --> 0:10:33.240 it's getting worse than cable prediction number five. After numerous 0:10:33.240 --> 0:10:37.160 heated discussions, Congress will overturn the fccs decision in December 0:10:38.240 --> 0:10:42.720 to reverse the decision classifying broadband Internet as a public utility. 0:10:44.400 --> 0:10:48.920 M hm now yet uh, FCC did overturn it in 0:10:49.200 --> 0:10:54.839 um earlyen they announced the Restoring Internet Freedom Order, which 0:10:55.320 --> 0:10:58.320 seems to be a bit of a comedic title for 0:10:58.400 --> 0:11:00.160 what it is. It rolled back pretty much all the 0:11:00.240 --> 0:11:06.040 changes that the previous FCC had made, and um, yeah, 0:11:06.280 --> 0:11:10.080 I don't know that we're gonna see that get returned 0:11:11.240 --> 0:11:13.880 super soon. There were a lot of discussions about net neutrality, 0:11:13.920 --> 0:11:20.160 but still very much a unresolved question within the United States, 0:11:20.559 --> 0:11:23.120 so thumbs down. On that one, I would say prediction 0:11:23.200 --> 0:11:25.839 number six. By the end of twenty eighteen, the number 0:11:25.840 --> 0:11:28.679 of cord cutters in the United States will hit thirty million. 0:11:29.400 --> 0:11:32.920 In seventeen, it was twenty two point two million, which 0:11:32.960 --> 0:11:36.320 was up from sixteen point seven million in twenty sixteen, 0:11:37.000 --> 0:11:38.800 and I said that trend would not only continue, but 0:11:38.840 --> 0:11:42.120 would accelerate as more people would turn to virtual subscriptions 0:11:42.559 --> 0:11:46.080 using smart TVs, consoles, and other solutions to get access 0:11:46.120 --> 0:11:49.800 to live TV while abandoning satellite or cable options. Big 0:11:49.840 --> 0:11:54.920 thumbs up. In fact, I was being apparently conservative. Um 0:11:55.080 --> 0:11:58.800 midway through eighteen, analysts had already projected that we would 0:11:58.880 --> 0:12:02.240 hit thirty three million cord cutters by the end of 0:12:02.240 --> 0:12:07.680 the year total, not thirty three million alone, but total 0:12:07.720 --> 0:12:10.360 in the United States. So I was actually three million 0:12:10.360 --> 0:12:12.840 people shy even though I thought, well, this is an 0:12:12.840 --> 0:12:16.000 accelerated rate, I'm gonna go with it. It turns out 0:12:16.040 --> 0:12:18.760 I was being too conservative. The reasons cited for the 0:12:18.800 --> 0:12:21.079 increase we're pretty much what I have said. People are 0:12:21.080 --> 0:12:24.679 focusing more on internet delivery services and less on television. 0:12:24.920 --> 0:12:27.599 And while a lot of TV services were forming partnerships 0:12:27.640 --> 0:12:30.760 with companies like Netflix, the takeaway seemed to be that 0:12:30.840 --> 0:12:34.840 customers were interested in just getting those Internet entertainment services, 0:12:35.160 --> 0:12:39.280 not television plus those services. Now, at this point, I've 0:12:39.280 --> 0:12:42.600 seen analysts like Dan Robin Robbins predict that this trend 0:12:42.640 --> 0:12:45.400 is only going to accelerate further in twenty nineteen, so 0:12:46.080 --> 0:12:49.040 we may see an even a larger number of cord 0:12:49.080 --> 0:12:53.640 cutters joined the fray in the following year. I have 0:12:53.720 --> 0:12:55.840 more to say about the predictions I made at the 0:12:55.920 --> 0:12:58.800 end of twenty seventeen, but first let's go take a 0:12:58.880 --> 0:13:10.079 break to thank our answer prediction number seven. There will 0:13:10.120 --> 0:13:13.800 be at least one, probably more security breaches on the 0:13:13.840 --> 0:13:17.760 scale of the Equifax breach in ten, because while we 0:13:17.800 --> 0:13:20.240 pay a lot of lip service towards security, it's way 0:13:20.240 --> 0:13:24.480 easier to talk about being secure than actually doing it. Plus, 0:13:24.800 --> 0:13:28.040 we're human beings and we're wackyo, So this is another 0:13:28.080 --> 0:13:32.480 big thumbs up. Unfortunately, I wish it weren't, but we 0:13:32.520 --> 0:13:36.560 had so many data breaches that happened in or were 0:13:36.640 --> 0:13:40.160 made public in Some of the data breaches actually happened 0:13:40.240 --> 0:13:43.920 years ago, but we didn't find out about them until 0:13:44.160 --> 0:13:46.600 this year. So let's go over some of the big ones, 0:13:46.840 --> 0:13:49.720 shall we I'm just going to concentrate on the ones 0:13:50.360 --> 0:13:54.600 that were larger than Equifax's breach. That one affected an 0:13:54.760 --> 0:13:59.199 estimated onety three million people. So while I'm gonna look 0:13:59.240 --> 0:14:01.360 at some big ones, just know that there were also 0:14:01.920 --> 0:14:04.720 a whole bunch of other ones. They just didn't hit 0:14:04.760 --> 0:14:09.280 the hundred forty three million victim mark. So in February, 0:14:09.800 --> 0:14:12.920 not even to the two months into the year, and 0:14:12.960 --> 0:14:17.800 we hit one and unauthorized party and that's how they 0:14:17.880 --> 0:14:21.440 defined it gained access to user information belonging to people 0:14:21.600 --> 0:14:25.480 who had the My Fitness Pal app that that includes me. 0:14:26.720 --> 0:14:30.760 And the data that the unauthorized party got access to 0:14:30.800 --> 0:14:35.600 included encrypted passwords, email addresses, and user names. The estimated 0:14:35.640 --> 0:14:40.200 number of people affected one hundred fifty million. A data 0:14:40.240 --> 0:14:44.600 security expert was poking around on databases belonging to the 0:14:44.720 --> 0:14:49.520 data broker Exactus, and they found a database that had 0:14:49.600 --> 0:14:54.400 information on pretty much every US citizen in it. That 0:14:54.480 --> 0:14:57.560 was actually a quote from a news article about this event. 0:14:58.240 --> 0:15:01.640 It was publicly ex pessible. In other words, there was 0:15:01.680 --> 0:15:08.040 an unprotected, unsecured database containing information about people. This is 0:15:08.080 --> 0:15:11.280 beyond a breach. This is like leaving the vault door 0:15:11.400 --> 0:15:14.520 open in the bank. The estimated number of people affected 0:15:14.600 --> 0:15:20.040 is three hundred forty million people. Yikes. Then in September, 0:15:20.080 --> 0:15:23.560 we learned about a data breach in the reservation database 0:15:23.640 --> 0:15:27.880 for Marriott Starwood Hotels, which may have exposed the information 0:15:27.880 --> 0:15:33.160 of five hundred million people half a billion people. And 0:15:33.200 --> 0:15:37.560 that includes stuff like passport numbers, reservation dates, payment information, 0:15:37.560 --> 0:15:40.320 and more. So there are a lot of not just 0:15:40.760 --> 0:15:45.120 data security things, but privacy issues. Tons of problems there. 0:15:46.040 --> 0:15:49.480 The largest was one that didn't get a whole lot 0:15:49.560 --> 0:15:52.800 of coverage in the United States, but it was phenomenal 0:15:52.920 --> 0:15:56.400 in its scope. It made the UH the hundred forty 0:15:56.440 --> 0:16:00.000 three million people look like nothing in comparison. It affects 0:16:00.080 --> 0:16:04.400 did India's government I D database, which in turn meant 0:16:04.840 --> 0:16:08.160 that it affected the information of around one point one 0:16:08.560 --> 0:16:13.720 billion people. That's billion with a B. It was all 0:16:13.760 --> 0:16:17.520 made accessible. The fault lay with a state owned utility company. 0:16:18.040 --> 0:16:21.840 They had an unsecured API which gave backdoor access to 0:16:22.040 --> 0:16:25.280 all of this information. So if you got hold of 0:16:25.320 --> 0:16:27.440 this API, which you should be able to do. It's 0:16:27.440 --> 0:16:31.000 an application programming interface, you know, it's meant for developers 0:16:31.000 --> 0:16:34.000 to get hold of. They could get this access to 0:16:34.080 --> 0:16:39.160 all the information, including I D information, biometric information, information 0:16:39.160 --> 0:16:43.680 on connected services like bank accounts. It's mind boggling in 0:16:43.800 --> 0:16:48.520 scope and impact. One point one billion. So yeah, big 0:16:48.560 --> 0:16:53.520 thumbs up on the prediction, Big thumbs down on how 0:16:53.800 --> 0:16:59.240 bad all this is. Prediction number eight. Apple's next iPhone, 0:16:59.280 --> 0:17:02.640 which I'm betting won't have a number associated with it, 0:17:02.640 --> 0:17:06.000 will be an incremental upgrade to the iPhone X or 0:17:06.080 --> 0:17:10.240 iPhone ten. Johnny Eys was once again taking has once 0:17:10.280 --> 0:17:12.480 again taken the helm of design over at Apple, but 0:17:12.560 --> 0:17:14.960 his influence isn't likely to be seen in products for 0:17:15.000 --> 0:17:17.720 another generation or so because it takes more than a 0:17:17.800 --> 0:17:20.560 year of work to produce one of these things. So, 0:17:20.760 --> 0:17:23.520 in other words, when the iPhone ten debuted, the next 0:17:23.520 --> 0:17:27.200 iPhone was already well in development at that stage, and 0:17:27.280 --> 0:17:30.560 this was another one that was a gimme. I think 0:17:30.680 --> 0:17:33.320 I got it absolutely right, So another thumbs up. But 0:17:33.520 --> 0:17:37.399 again I don't think this wasn't necessarily a very uh 0:17:38.080 --> 0:17:44.000 courageous or outgoing or crazy prediction. It was kind of 0:17:44.160 --> 0:17:46.240 you could see the writing on the wall. So the 0:17:46.280 --> 0:17:51.040 iPhone ten R and the iPhone ten S are incremental 0:17:51.080 --> 0:17:53.919 evolutions of the previous models, or if you prefer x 0:17:54.080 --> 0:17:59.880 R and excess. Apple has phased out those previous models 0:18:00.359 --> 0:18:03.280 much earlier than it had done with older iPhone models, 0:18:03.280 --> 0:18:06.159 which was interesting. I guess the biggest change in the 0:18:06.240 --> 0:18:09.119 design was the notch. That's the section at the top 0:18:09.240 --> 0:18:11.040 of the face of the phone where the camera and 0:18:11.119 --> 0:18:15.040 sensors are. Other smartphones have since adopted that notch approach, 0:18:15.080 --> 0:18:18.119 which can sometimes encroach a bit on the screen if 0:18:18.119 --> 0:18:21.600 you're trying to watch something in wide screen format. But yeah, 0:18:21.840 --> 0:18:27.000 no super revolutionary iPhones came out in Prediction number nine. 0:18:27.520 --> 0:18:29.760 While we'll see a rise in cord cutting, which will 0:18:29.760 --> 0:18:32.560 have a big effect on advertising, will also see a 0:18:32.720 --> 0:18:36.400 rise in add blocking online. This will encourage more sites 0:18:36.480 --> 0:18:39.760 to use ad blocker detectors, which will likely inspire more 0:18:39.760 --> 0:18:43.240 people to file lawsuits against such practices. And it's going 0:18:43.320 --> 0:18:45.439 to be a big mess, and it will bring the 0:18:45.520 --> 0:18:48.800 question everyone is worried about closer to the foreground, which 0:18:48.840 --> 0:18:51.679 is how do you make money creating content on the 0:18:51.680 --> 0:18:55.480 Internet in a way that doesn't alienate your audience or 0:18:55.520 --> 0:19:00.399 your customers. This one, I would say, I say my 0:19:00.440 --> 0:19:03.359 thumb was pointing more down than up, maybe somewhere in 0:19:03.400 --> 0:19:07.600 the middle, but kind of leaning downward. The trend has continued. Certainly. 0:19:07.800 --> 0:19:11.040 Many sites are using what ad blocker services called ad 0:19:11.040 --> 0:19:14.520 blocking walls, and that's lines of code that detect if 0:19:14.520 --> 0:19:17.800 someone is using an ad blocker. That's an you know, 0:19:17.920 --> 0:19:21.040 if they're using a browser they're trying to connect to 0:19:21.040 --> 0:19:26.240 a web page, there's a detection that the client request, 0:19:26.680 --> 0:19:30.359 that is, the browser is including an ad blocker, and 0:19:30.440 --> 0:19:33.080 that means the server will send a pop up window 0:19:33.240 --> 0:19:36.560 or something similar saying Mike, we see you're using an 0:19:36.560 --> 0:19:40.520 ad blocker, could you you know, not do that or whatever, 0:19:40.960 --> 0:19:42.640 or even going so far as to block you from 0:19:42.640 --> 0:19:45.119 being able to see the site at all until you 0:19:45.240 --> 0:19:48.639 disabled the ad blocker or white list the site. Now. 0:19:48.640 --> 0:19:51.639 According to the team behind ad block Plus, which is 0:19:51.800 --> 0:19:56.920 a fairly standard response here, they could block those messages, 0:19:57.520 --> 0:19:59.920 but they choose not to because they feel it's important 0:20:00.160 --> 0:20:04.520 that people understand that revenue has to come from somewhere, 0:20:04.960 --> 0:20:06.760 you know, we have to find some way to pay 0:20:06.840 --> 0:20:10.119 for the content we access or else everything falls apart 0:20:10.600 --> 0:20:12.280 because if you don't have any money, like if you're 0:20:12.320 --> 0:20:14.960 not making money from people coming to visit your content, 0:20:15.000 --> 0:20:16.640 you have no way to pay the people who make 0:20:16.720 --> 0:20:22.080 the content and most people are justifiably not super cool 0:20:22.119 --> 0:20:24.400 with the idea of creating stuff for free, because, as 0:20:24.400 --> 0:20:27.359 it turns out, you can't pay the rent that way. 0:20:27.760 --> 0:20:31.639 You gotta make your living. I do this podcast. If 0:20:31.680 --> 0:20:35.080 we didn't have advertising on this podcast, then this podcast 0:20:35.080 --> 0:20:38.440 wouldn't make money, and then there'd be no no money 0:20:38.480 --> 0:20:42.359 made to pay my salary, which means I wouldn't be 0:20:42.359 --> 0:20:44.560 doing this. I wouldn't you know, I'd have to do 0:20:44.640 --> 0:20:46.280 something else in order to make money so I can 0:20:46.400 --> 0:20:50.200 make a living. So that's just the way the world works. Unfortunately, 0:20:50.280 --> 0:20:54.360 there are a lot of advertisers that have created extremely 0:20:54.520 --> 0:20:59.760 irritating and um intrusive ads, and also there have been 0:20:59.800 --> 0:21:04.760 apples of malware posing as legitimate advertising or compromised ads 0:21:04.800 --> 0:21:09.240 that harvest data without user knowledge or consent. So there 0:21:09.240 --> 0:21:12.080 are legitimate uses for ad blockers in the context of 0:21:12.200 --> 0:21:16.159 user privacy and security. You know, it's I can't blame 0:21:16.280 --> 0:21:19.440 someone who says I use an ad blocker because I'm 0:21:19.480 --> 0:21:21.960 scared that if I go to a website that has 0:21:22.000 --> 0:21:24.840 one of these compromised ads on it, I could end 0:21:24.920 --> 0:21:27.520 up with malware on my computer, or I could end 0:21:27.600 --> 0:21:31.720 up with my information stolen without my knowledge, those are 0:21:31.800 --> 0:21:35.840 legitimate concerns, and they're definitely things that have to be addressed. 0:21:36.680 --> 0:21:39.600 I don't think any one party is totally in the 0:21:39.720 --> 0:21:42.520 right here. I think that companies that want to make 0:21:42.560 --> 0:21:45.600 money through advertising, I think that's legitimate. I think the 0:21:45.680 --> 0:21:49.720 advertising companies that serve ads are for the most part legitimate. 0:21:50.240 --> 0:21:52.560 Some of them might be a little more shady. And 0:21:52.600 --> 0:21:54.920 I think the people who are installing ad blockers because 0:21:54.920 --> 0:21:58.040 they want to protect themselves, I think that's a legitimate concern. 0:21:58.560 --> 0:22:01.600 So this is a tough situation. It's there's not an 0:22:01.600 --> 0:22:04.800 easy answer. It's more of a dilemma. Google Chrome version 0:22:04.800 --> 0:22:07.560 seventy one, which came out just before I recorded this episode, 0:22:07.840 --> 0:22:10.680 has an expanded ad blocker in it that's meant to 0:22:10.720 --> 0:22:14.760 protect people from abusive AD experiences. This is significant largely 0:22:14.760 --> 0:22:18.119 because Google makes his money through advertising, so it's a 0:22:18.160 --> 0:22:21.439 company that both depends upon ads for revenue and recognizes 0:22:21.520 --> 0:22:25.400 how they can be predatory nor that people can compromise them. 0:22:25.640 --> 0:22:29.760 But there was no rash of lawsuits that popped up 0:22:29.800 --> 0:22:33.160 around this, as I had predicted. Ad block Plus did 0:22:33.160 --> 0:22:35.760 win a legal battle in Germany in April, but we 0:22:35.840 --> 0:22:38.080 didn't see a ton of people take companies to court 0:22:38.119 --> 0:22:41.359 for ad blocking walls. So I'd say this one again 0:22:41.480 --> 0:22:43.399 is kind of a thumb in the middle, maybe leaning 0:22:43.440 --> 0:22:46.920 downward a bit, because it wasn't It wasn't that rash 0:22:46.920 --> 0:22:49.400 of lawsuits that I thought was going to happen. Prediction 0:22:49.480 --> 0:22:53.120 number ten that we were headed toward a subscription service 0:22:53.200 --> 0:22:56.760 crash in which we would see such a saturation in 0:22:56.800 --> 0:23:00.520 the market for subscription based entertainment service is I'm talking 0:23:00.520 --> 0:23:04.159 about stuff like Netflix, Hulu, YouTube Premium, that kind of 0:23:04.160 --> 0:23:07.720 stuff that there would be a general backlash, And I said, 0:23:07.760 --> 0:23:11.000 I think we'll get through before this happens. So it's 0:23:11.040 --> 0:23:13.879 couching my bets here, but things will be heating up 0:23:13.920 --> 0:23:16.600 towards the end of the year with more consumers disenchanted 0:23:16.600 --> 0:23:19.720 with how many different competing services there are and what 0:23:19.880 --> 0:23:22.760 they're expected to do to get all the content they want. 0:23:23.560 --> 0:23:28.000 So I'd say I've got thumbs down mostly. I mean, yes, 0:23:28.040 --> 0:23:31.720 there is some discussion about this. There are growing concerns 0:23:31.800 --> 0:23:35.480 that with the huge number of services that are popping 0:23:35.560 --> 0:23:38.399 up that if you wanted to get everything that you liked, 0:23:38.840 --> 0:23:41.879 you'd be subscribing to, you know, half a dozen or 0:23:41.960 --> 0:23:44.920 more services, and if you're talking about ten dollars a month, 0:23:44.960 --> 0:23:47.120 that starts to add up pretty quickly. But we did 0:23:47.119 --> 0:23:51.360 get through without some sort of reckoning. But I think 0:23:51.440 --> 0:23:55.440 one is still coming. As of December twelve, there are 0:23:55.520 --> 0:23:58.879 numerous new streaming services that are planned to join the 0:23:58.920 --> 0:24:02.120 ones already out there are so right now we've got 0:24:02.119 --> 0:24:06.760 stuff like Netflix, Hulu, Amazon Prime Video, YouTube Premium, but 0:24:06.880 --> 0:24:10.560 now we're gonna also get Disney Plus. There's an unnamed 0:24:10.600 --> 0:24:14.359 Apple streaming video service on the way. Warner Media under 0:24:14.400 --> 0:24:17.119 a T and T, assuming the appeals court upholds the 0:24:17.200 --> 0:24:21.280 legality of that acquisition, has one plan. There's probably more 0:24:21.359 --> 0:24:23.639 that are going to launch in twenty nineteen, but the 0:24:23.640 --> 0:24:28.440