1 00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:02,400 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. 2 00:00:03,120 --> 00:00:04,800 Speaker 2: I'mna just mop that action also. 3 00:00:07,640 --> 00:00:13,240 Speaker 3: All right, here we go, we're throwing in so we're 4 00:00:13,280 --> 00:00:15,080 Speaker 3: sitting up to cash to stop. 5 00:00:15,920 --> 00:00:18,920 Speaker 4: We see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they 6 00:00:18,920 --> 00:00:19,480 Speaker 4: go to winning. 7 00:00:20,400 --> 00:00:25,280 Speaker 1: That's incredible being bank I like to make money. All right, 8 00:00:25,960 --> 00:00:27,960 Speaker 1: this is the ultimate kabine. 9 00:00:27,840 --> 00:00:34,040 Speaker 3: You want to and we are underway. 10 00:00:34,800 --> 00:00:38,120 Speaker 2: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast. Today, we've got NFL 11 00:00:38,360 --> 00:00:41,839 Speaker 2: Best Bets from the one and only Brandon Anderson for 12 00:00:42,000 --> 00:00:42,960 Speaker 2: NFL Week six. 13 00:00:43,560 --> 00:00:45,800 Speaker 3: I am Brendan Glashen Brendan and Brandon. 14 00:00:46,360 --> 00:00:49,720 Speaker 2: I was out last week, so please get back used 15 00:00:49,760 --> 00:00:52,720 Speaker 2: to that. As a reminder, you can find Brandon's picks 16 00:00:52,800 --> 00:00:55,600 Speaker 2: in the free award winning Action Network app, including any 17 00:00:55,640 --> 00:00:58,400 Speaker 2: futures or awards bets, along with all of his articles 18 00:00:58,400 --> 00:01:00,760 Speaker 2: actionnetwork dot Com in the Action Network. 19 00:01:00,480 --> 00:01:03,480 Speaker 3: Out slightly in the green last week. Brandon. 20 00:01:03,480 --> 00:01:06,319 Speaker 2: As we enter week six, we'll start as we normally 21 00:01:06,360 --> 00:01:09,760 Speaker 2: do with best bets. 22 00:01:10,240 --> 00:01:15,560 Speaker 4: This is your best bet. 23 00:01:16,200 --> 00:01:17,319 Speaker 3: You've got four of them. 24 00:01:17,560 --> 00:01:20,360 Speaker 2: One might be familiar to some of our audience because 25 00:01:20,360 --> 00:01:22,119 Speaker 2: you gave this out as a hot read and you're. 26 00:01:22,000 --> 00:01:22,840 Speaker 3: Going right back to it. 27 00:01:22,880 --> 00:01:25,840 Speaker 1: That's Cincinnati, I know, and I take the Bengals minus 28 00:01:25,840 --> 00:01:28,240 Speaker 1: three and a half at the Giants. It's Sunday night, 29 00:01:28,319 --> 00:01:30,399 Speaker 1: we get the Giants in prime time. I'm not sure 30 00:01:30,520 --> 00:01:33,399 Speaker 1: what we did to deserve this special treat. This was 31 00:01:33,400 --> 00:01:35,720 Speaker 1: the hot read. I liked it because it had dropped 32 00:01:35,720 --> 00:01:37,680 Speaker 1: down from four and a half Sunday morning to three 33 00:01:37,680 --> 00:01:40,000 Speaker 1: and a half. Pretty much sat that line. I did 34 00:01:40,000 --> 00:01:42,640 Speaker 1: see like a three pop a couple of times. I 35 00:01:42,680 --> 00:01:44,480 Speaker 1: thought the line might move up, but I just wanted 36 00:01:44,480 --> 00:01:46,319 Speaker 1: to get the pick out again because I still like it. 37 00:01:46,640 --> 00:01:48,840 Speaker 1: So a lot of the cases similar, but I've got 38 00:01:48,840 --> 00:01:52,600 Speaker 1: a few extra things to add. Bengals defense not good, right, 39 00:01:52,640 --> 00:01:54,800 Speaker 1: That's not the case here. But the Bengals offense is 40 00:01:54,800 --> 00:01:57,440 Speaker 1: playing better than ever. Their second in the NFL and 41 00:01:57,520 --> 00:02:02,200 Speaker 1: ePaper drive second in success rate, second in DVAWA offensively, 42 00:02:02,680 --> 00:02:07,120 Speaker 1: Joe Burrow second in EPA, and completion over expected very good. 43 00:02:07,240 --> 00:02:09,440 Speaker 1: This is all not just really good. It's better than 44 00:02:09,480 --> 00:02:12,320 Speaker 1: the Bengals have really ever been with the Burrow era. 45 00:02:12,840 --> 00:02:15,520 Speaker 1: The Giants, their defensive line is really good, but the 46 00:02:15,560 --> 00:02:17,520 Speaker 1: secondary is not grace I think one of the worst 47 00:02:17,560 --> 00:02:20,559 Speaker 1: in the league. They're twenty first and passing DVA defensively. 48 00:02:21,120 --> 00:02:24,160 Speaker 1: Jamar Chase and Tie Higgins are just trend defenses right now. 49 00:02:24,240 --> 00:02:28,160 Speaker 1: Right explosive plays, yack plays. Chase is ripping one to 50 00:02:28,240 --> 00:02:30,640 Speaker 1: the house like every single game. It feels like I 51 00:02:30,680 --> 00:02:32,920 Speaker 1: looked at over twenty five and a half long for him. 52 00:02:33,240 --> 00:02:35,400 Speaker 1: I don't mind that play. The way you beat the 53 00:02:35,400 --> 00:02:39,160 Speaker 1: Bengals is is not going to shut down this offense. 54 00:02:39,240 --> 00:02:41,120 Speaker 1: Nobody's shutting down the offense right now. The way you 55 00:02:41,120 --> 00:02:43,480 Speaker 1: beat them if you put up forty one like Baltimore 56 00:02:43,600 --> 00:02:46,000 Speaker 1: last week, we put up thirty eight like Washington did 57 00:02:46,000 --> 00:02:49,119 Speaker 1: on Monday night in that win. You don't beat them 58 00:02:49,280 --> 00:02:53,160 Speaker 1: with Daniel Jones. Daniel Jones when the opponent scores over 59 00:02:53,200 --> 00:02:55,440 Speaker 1: twenty points. This is a stat Matt Moore gave me 60 00:02:56,120 --> 00:03:00,480 Speaker 1: twenty Sorry, over twenty points. Daniel Jones is twelve nineteen 61 00:03:00,960 --> 00:03:04,080 Speaker 1: ATS thirty nine percent cover rate, and he is only 62 00:03:04,160 --> 00:03:07,560 Speaker 1: six and thirty five straight up for his career. So 63 00:03:08,240 --> 00:03:10,880 Speaker 1: Daniel Jones is not out here winning a lot of shootouts. 64 00:03:10,919 --> 00:03:13,959 Speaker 1: That's not the thing that he does. Joe Burrow, that's 65 00:03:13,960 --> 00:03:15,840 Speaker 1: who you want in the shootout. You also want him 66 00:03:15,880 --> 00:03:18,440 Speaker 1: after a loss fifteen seven and one against the spread 67 00:03:19,000 --> 00:03:22,240 Speaker 1: and after Week five take out, the non take out 68 00:03:22,240 --> 00:03:25,679 Speaker 1: the division games after Week five and after that first month, 69 00:03:25,720 --> 00:03:28,840 Speaker 1: we know Burrow starts slow. He's sixteen and five against 70 00:03:28,840 --> 00:03:31,400 Speaker 1: the spread the rest of the time, seventy six percent 71 00:03:31,480 --> 00:03:34,440 Speaker 1: cover rate. I think the Bengals still are a bit 72 00:03:34,520 --> 00:03:37,600 Speaker 1: underrated here. We talked about them on the Tuesday Roundtable. 73 00:03:37,920 --> 00:03:40,640 Speaker 1: They're one and four, all four losses by one score, 74 00:03:40,680 --> 00:03:43,560 Speaker 1: by fifteen points combined. I wrote about this team in 75 00:03:43,600 --> 00:03:46,240 Speaker 1: the post check article. You can catch that at Action Network. 76 00:03:47,160 --> 00:03:49,200 Speaker 1: I thought they might be dead Sunday night. We've been 77 00:03:49,240 --> 00:03:51,240 Speaker 1: on a roller coaster ride with this team, right Brandon, 78 00:03:51,600 --> 00:03:55,280 Speaker 1: So I think they're alive. They got giants here, Browns 79 00:03:55,360 --> 00:03:58,160 Speaker 1: Raiders two of the three after that. That's a great 80 00:03:58,240 --> 00:04:01,120 Speaker 1: way to get right in October. We're gonna get moving forward. 81 00:04:01,680 --> 00:04:04,839 Speaker 1: We talked about je Brow MVP. I can't quite get there. 82 00:04:04,880 --> 00:04:06,400 Speaker 1: You gotta be like the one of the two seed. 83 00:04:06,440 --> 00:04:08,160 Speaker 1: They have to be nearly perfect the rest of the way. 84 00:04:08,240 --> 00:04:11,320 Speaker 1: But I will sprinkle one hundred and fifty to one 85 00:04:11,560 --> 00:04:14,240 Speaker 1: Offensive Player of the Year. Burrow leads the league in 86 00:04:14,280 --> 00:04:17,680 Speaker 1: passing touchdowns. Right now, he is almost top three and yards. 87 00:04:17,680 --> 00:04:20,320 Speaker 1: He's on pace for forty six hundred and fifty yards 88 00:04:20,360 --> 00:04:23,320 Speaker 1: forty one scores. I think it's good look for Burrow. 89 00:04:23,360 --> 00:04:26,159 Speaker 1: I think the Bengals offense is here to stay. What 90 00:04:26,279 --> 00:04:28,680 Speaker 1: is dead may never die. We see this from the 91 00:04:28,680 --> 00:04:31,359 Speaker 1: Bengals every single year. I'm just gonna play them and 92 00:04:31,400 --> 00:04:34,120 Speaker 1: trust them to get right here. Bengals minus three and 93 00:04:34,160 --> 00:04:35,320 Speaker 1: a half on Sunday Night. 94 00:04:35,400 --> 00:04:37,400 Speaker 2: That's a double down on the hot read. You're gonna 95 00:04:37,400 --> 00:04:39,080 Speaker 2: double down on your look ahead as well. For best 96 00:04:39,080 --> 00:04:39,880 Speaker 2: bet number two. 97 00:04:40,120 --> 00:04:42,120 Speaker 1: I am so another familiar one here. I'm gonna go 98 00:04:42,120 --> 00:04:44,640 Speaker 1: with the Lions minus three at the Cowboys, the look 99 00:04:44,640 --> 00:04:47,240 Speaker 1: ahead was minus two and a half. We wanted below 100 00:04:47,279 --> 00:04:49,120 Speaker 1: the key. I still like it at the key if 101 00:04:49,160 --> 00:04:50,480 Speaker 1: you need it, so we should have get it there 102 00:04:50,520 --> 00:04:54,240 Speaker 1: before it goes above that number. So real contrast here 103 00:04:54,240 --> 00:04:56,720 Speaker 1: and where these teams are at. Dallas needs the late 104 00:04:56,760 --> 00:04:59,159 Speaker 1: comeback Sunday Night against Pittsburgh. They shouldn't have, really, they 105 00:04:59,200 --> 00:05:01,640 Speaker 1: were a much better team there. But they're coming off 106 00:05:01,640 --> 00:05:04,680 Speaker 1: a tough game against Pittsburgh. Micah Parsons still looks like 107 00:05:04,680 --> 00:05:06,960 Speaker 1: he's going to be out here, DeMarcus Lawrence is out, 108 00:05:07,000 --> 00:05:10,479 Speaker 1: their corners are banged up. Detroit's not Detroit's off the 109 00:05:10,480 --> 00:05:13,560 Speaker 1: bye week road favorites off a bye week last two 110 00:05:13,600 --> 00:05:16,800 Speaker 1: decades sixty percent against the spread, So that's already a 111 00:05:16,800 --> 00:05:19,560 Speaker 1: good start for us. Just kind of a good arrest differential. Remember, 112 00:05:20,080 --> 00:05:23,040 Speaker 1: this is a revenge spot for Dan Campbell and the Lions. 113 00:05:23,080 --> 00:05:26,560 Speaker 1: Week seventeen last year. The Lions are down seven in 114 00:05:26,600 --> 00:05:29,800 Speaker 1: the last minute, they score touchdown to tie it. Nope, 115 00:05:29,880 --> 00:05:33,200 Speaker 1: we're going for two for the win. They convert it 116 00:05:33,279 --> 00:05:36,320 Speaker 1: with the past to Dan Skipper, the backup lineman right. Nope, 117 00:05:36,320 --> 00:05:41,120 Speaker 1: failed to report wonky penalty that everybody agrees shouldn't have happened. 118 00:05:41,720 --> 00:05:43,680 Speaker 1: They should have won the game. They didn't. They lose 119 00:05:43,720 --> 00:05:46,360 Speaker 1: the one seed really because of that. I think this 120 00:05:46,400 --> 00:05:48,479 Speaker 1: is a spot that, like the way we know about 121 00:05:48,560 --> 00:05:51,640 Speaker 1: Dan Campbell and the way that their old school smash mouth, 122 00:05:52,240 --> 00:05:54,520 Speaker 1: this screams revenge spot. Like this is a spot I 123 00:05:54,520 --> 00:05:57,760 Speaker 1: think Detroit's been ready for and this is a great 124 00:05:57,800 --> 00:06:01,120 Speaker 1: matchup for them. Dallas is second the worst run defense 125 00:06:01,160 --> 00:06:04,200 Speaker 1: in the league by dboa the lines of the best 126 00:06:04,240 --> 00:06:06,840 Speaker 1: offensive line in the league. It looks like center Frank 127 00:06:06,920 --> 00:06:09,560 Speaker 1: right Now is back as well. This is set up 128 00:06:09,600 --> 00:06:12,360 Speaker 1: for a spot for Detroit to just run all over 129 00:06:12,960 --> 00:06:16,240 Speaker 1: the Cowboys defense. So this was for me a matchup 130 00:06:16,240 --> 00:06:19,440 Speaker 1: play more than anything. That's what jumped out because Detroit 131 00:06:19,560 --> 00:06:22,800 Speaker 1: just controlling the clock, running the ball, moving the chains, 132 00:06:23,200 --> 00:06:25,400 Speaker 1: and just keeping Dak and CD off the field is 133 00:06:25,440 --> 00:06:28,159 Speaker 1: a pretty good way to do it. I honestly thought, 134 00:06:28,200 --> 00:06:30,679 Speaker 1: Brandon that I wanted the two and a half because 135 00:06:30,680 --> 00:06:32,400 Speaker 1: it would get to three to three and a half maybe, 136 00:06:32,440 --> 00:06:34,559 Speaker 1: and then the trends would say, Okay, it's a Dallas spot. 137 00:06:34,640 --> 00:06:37,600 Speaker 1: Now it's not. It's a Detroit spot. Still again, let 138 00:06:37,600 --> 00:06:39,200 Speaker 1: me give you some of the trends that I like here. 139 00:06:39,680 --> 00:06:43,080 Speaker 1: Dan Campbell is a favorite sixty five percent against the spread. 140 00:06:43,440 --> 00:06:45,400 Speaker 1: Dan Campbell out of the bye week three and one 141 00:06:45,560 --> 00:06:48,120 Speaker 1: ats Jared Goff out of the bye week five and 142 00:06:48,200 --> 00:06:51,040 Speaker 1: two against the spread. All right, how about against teams 143 00:06:51,080 --> 00:06:53,800 Speaker 1: above five hundred, which both of these teams are. Dan 144 00:06:53,920 --> 00:06:57,880 Speaker 1: Campbell sixteen and six ats seventy three percent, Jared Goff 145 00:06:57,960 --> 00:07:00,920 Speaker 1: fifty nine percent. For all the credit that we give him, 146 00:07:01,279 --> 00:07:04,640 Speaker 1: his teams are playing well against teams above five hundred. Hey, 147 00:07:04,680 --> 00:07:07,080 Speaker 1: you know whose teams don't play well against teams above 148 00:07:07,120 --> 00:07:11,320 Speaker 1: five hundred. Dak Prescott nineteen and twenty seven against the spread, 149 00:07:11,760 --> 00:07:14,000 Speaker 1: only forty one percent cover rate. So that's a lot 150 00:07:14,080 --> 00:07:16,960 Speaker 1: of numbers there. I'll tell you the same thing. We 151 00:07:17,120 --> 00:07:19,240 Speaker 1: like Campbell and goff Off the bye week. We like 152 00:07:19,320 --> 00:07:21,720 Speaker 1: them as favorites. We like them against good teams. We 153 00:07:21,800 --> 00:07:24,960 Speaker 1: do not like back in that spot. It's a Sunday 154 00:07:25,000 --> 00:07:28,800 Speaker 1: afternoon late sort of game. Again, we've watched this one 155 00:07:28,920 --> 00:07:31,840 Speaker 1: for years, right, I think this is another let down 156 00:07:31,920 --> 00:07:34,320 Speaker 1: Cowboys spot. In't the lines run all over them? So 157 00:07:34,360 --> 00:07:36,280 Speaker 1: I'll take the lines minus the three. 158 00:07:36,640 --> 00:07:39,000 Speaker 2: Yeah, I can't disagree with this at all, and not 159 00:07:39,040 --> 00:07:42,760 Speaker 2: to mention, you know, Parsons injury, he didn't practice Wednesday, 160 00:07:42,920 --> 00:07:46,800 Speaker 2: Kendricks is hurt, their whole front hearing the Sunday night broadcast. 161 00:07:46,880 --> 00:07:48,600 Speaker 3: Just the number of guys Mike Zimmer's gonna go. 162 00:07:48,640 --> 00:07:49,960 Speaker 2: Mike Zimmer is a good coach, I think, a good 163 00:07:50,000 --> 00:07:52,720 Speaker 2: defensive coordinator, But the number of guys they've had to 164 00:07:52,720 --> 00:07:55,800 Speaker 2: go through in that front seven. They made Naji Harris 165 00:07:55,800 --> 00:07:57,880 Speaker 2: looked respectable as a running back the other day. 166 00:07:57,920 --> 00:07:59,360 Speaker 3: I mean, they didn't use fields as well as they 167 00:07:59,360 --> 00:08:04,000 Speaker 3: thought they could have. But yeah, the Dallas concerns upfront. 168 00:08:03,960 --> 00:08:06,120 Speaker 1: And let me add to you that you want to 169 00:08:06,120 --> 00:08:08,000 Speaker 1: probably grab this one now. I don't think there's a 170 00:08:08,080 --> 00:08:09,480 Speaker 1: much of a chance we're going to get the two 171 00:08:09,520 --> 00:08:11,560 Speaker 1: and a half. Ever again, hopefully you had that on 172 00:08:11,600 --> 00:08:14,880 Speaker 1: the hot read, but if you didn't, I wouldn't wait around. 173 00:08:14,960 --> 00:08:17,360 Speaker 1: With the injuries you just talked about, this might get 174 00:08:17,360 --> 00:08:19,360 Speaker 1: past the three and then you lose the key number 175 00:08:19,400 --> 00:08:21,760 Speaker 1: on both sides. So I think, if you like this 176 00:08:21,800 --> 00:08:23,920 Speaker 1: and haven't played yet, do you grab the three before 177 00:08:23,960 --> 00:08:24,960 Speaker 1: it might move up again. 178 00:08:25,480 --> 00:08:28,800 Speaker 2: So same game for your third best bet, and it 179 00:08:28,920 --> 00:08:32,280 Speaker 2: bodes well, you're going to go to the backfield of 180 00:08:32,320 --> 00:08:34,840 Speaker 2: Detroit to shred this Dallas defense. 181 00:08:35,040 --> 00:08:38,280 Speaker 1: I'm gonna play my favorite prop this week. It's David Montgomery. 182 00:08:38,360 --> 00:08:42,000 Speaker 1: So the play I'm gonna make is over his rushing 183 00:08:42,080 --> 00:08:44,199 Speaker 1: yards right now at fifty six and a half and 184 00:08:44,240 --> 00:08:48,040 Speaker 1: in anytime touchdown, and play those together, it's plus two twelve. 185 00:08:48,400 --> 00:08:50,559 Speaker 1: But let me talk through each one of those parts 186 00:08:50,559 --> 00:08:53,920 Speaker 1: separately and why I think you can play this play. 187 00:08:54,240 --> 00:08:56,160 Speaker 1: Even if you don't like what I just said about 188 00:08:56,240 --> 00:08:58,600 Speaker 1: Detroit minus three against Dallas, I think this still is 189 00:08:58,600 --> 00:09:00,160 Speaker 1: a good play. That's why I wanted this lift is 190 00:09:00,200 --> 00:09:03,480 Speaker 1: separate here. So we just talked about the run defense. 191 00:09:03,520 --> 00:09:05,640 Speaker 1: We talked about the best offensive line in the league, 192 00:09:05,679 --> 00:09:08,360 Speaker 1: the run first mentality that all sets up. Well, here's 193 00:09:08,360 --> 00:09:11,880 Speaker 1: some of the numbers this season. Already, Dallas run defense 194 00:09:11,920 --> 00:09:15,400 Speaker 1: has allowed Dalvin Kamara twenty carries, one hundred and fifteen 195 00:09:15,440 --> 00:09:19,480 Speaker 1: yards and four touchdowns. He found that game Derrick Henry 196 00:09:19,559 --> 00:09:23,800 Speaker 1: twenty five, one fifty one and two scores last December, 197 00:09:24,200 --> 00:09:27,760 Speaker 1: so not that long ago. The Cowboys allowed to James 198 00:09:27,760 --> 00:09:30,480 Speaker 1: Cook twenty five carries, one hundred and seventy nine yards 199 00:09:30,480 --> 00:09:33,720 Speaker 1: and two scores Week seventeen. That game we just talked 200 00:09:33,720 --> 00:09:38,080 Speaker 1: about David Montgomery a little more modest, fourteen carries sixty 201 00:09:38,080 --> 00:09:41,360 Speaker 1: five yards in a score. So here's the thing. I 202 00:09:41,440 --> 00:09:42,920 Speaker 1: thought I was going to be all in on the 203 00:09:42,920 --> 00:09:45,400 Speaker 1: Montgomery escalator. I was going to go for the big game, 204 00:09:45,480 --> 00:09:47,560 Speaker 1: you know, the Derrick Henry ask, the one hundred and 205 00:09:47,559 --> 00:09:50,480 Speaker 1: two scorer sort of thing. I can't quite get there, 206 00:09:50,559 --> 00:09:54,160 Speaker 1: but I do like this moderate outcome here. So Montgomery 207 00:09:54,160 --> 00:09:57,800 Speaker 1: scored a touchdown all four Lions games this year, and 208 00:09:57,840 --> 00:10:00,760 Speaker 1: it turns out that's pretty much the and for him. 209 00:10:00,840 --> 00:10:03,160 Speaker 1: Last season he played fourteen games for the Lions, he 210 00:10:03,160 --> 00:10:08,120 Speaker 1: had thirteen touchdowns. In Detroit, He's scored a touchdown fifteen 211 00:10:08,160 --> 00:10:11,080 Speaker 1: out of eighteen regular season games. That would mean his 212 00:10:11,160 --> 00:10:14,280 Speaker 1: touchdown line should be like minus five hundred in theory. 213 00:10:14,600 --> 00:10:16,800 Speaker 1: It's minus one twenty seven here. So if you just 214 00:10:16,920 --> 00:10:21,480 Speaker 1: like that part, I like that. However, no escalator Lions 215 00:10:21,559 --> 00:10:25,000 Speaker 1: games a touchdown in fifteen out of eighteen. Only once 216 00:10:25,120 --> 00:10:28,120 Speaker 1: has he gone over one touchdown. I don't even understand that. 217 00:10:28,120 --> 00:10:29,800 Speaker 1: That doesn't make any sense to me. It's like Ben 218 00:10:29,840 --> 00:10:31,800 Speaker 1: Johnson's like, all right, we use that play, let's do 219 00:10:31,880 --> 00:10:35,240 Speaker 1: some other creative thing now, doesn't catch touchdowns. Hasn't done 220 00:10:35,280 --> 00:10:38,560 Speaker 1: that in Detroit. So no touchdown escalator, just one. I'm 221 00:10:38,559 --> 00:10:41,040 Speaker 1: confident in one, not more than one, all right. So 222 00:10:41,040 --> 00:10:45,120 Speaker 1: that's that part. Rushing yards, same eighteen games with Detroit, 223 00:10:45,440 --> 00:10:48,280 Speaker 1: he's at least fifty five yards fourteen out of eighteen. 224 00:10:48,600 --> 00:10:51,240 Speaker 1: We need fifty seven here, so we're right there at 225 00:10:51,280 --> 00:10:53,320 Speaker 1: the number. Fourteen out of eighteen is a great odd 226 00:10:53,320 --> 00:10:55,880 Speaker 1: in our favor. Why is the line low, Well, he 227 00:10:55,960 --> 00:10:59,120 Speaker 1: has gone under fifty five two of the last three, 228 00:10:59,480 --> 00:11:01,560 Speaker 1: so I think we're getting a discount based on just 229 00:11:01,600 --> 00:11:04,160 Speaker 1: recency bias. Remember Frank Raig now is out one of 230 00:11:04,160 --> 00:11:07,480 Speaker 1: those games. I actually look at the numbers here. I 231 00:11:07,480 --> 00:11:09,480 Speaker 1: would make his line. If I were setting it, maybe 232 00:11:09,520 --> 00:11:12,040 Speaker 1: like sixty five to seventy five. That's where it should 233 00:11:12,080 --> 00:11:13,840 Speaker 1: be the media, and for him in Detroit, it's been 234 00:11:13,880 --> 00:11:16,839 Speaker 1: about seventy He's at at least sixty five yards two 235 00:11:16,920 --> 00:11:20,320 Speaker 1: thirds of the time, seventy four yards almost half the time. 236 00:11:20,880 --> 00:11:22,920 Speaker 1: So that's why I like the over fifty six and 237 00:11:23,000 --> 00:11:25,440 Speaker 1: a half line. I talked about why I like the 238 00:11:25,480 --> 00:11:29,360 Speaker 1: touchdown line. Now why together, Okay, fifty five yards on 239 00:11:29,400 --> 00:11:32,559 Speaker 1: the score. You look at Detroit for Montgomery's career, He's 240 00:11:32,600 --> 00:11:35,240 Speaker 1: done fifty five in a score in fourteen out of 241 00:11:35,280 --> 00:11:37,679 Speaker 1: twenty one games count of the playoffs, so that's two 242 00:11:37,679 --> 00:11:40,640 Speaker 1: out of every three games that he suits up he 243 00:11:40,720 --> 00:11:43,439 Speaker 1: gets his usual fifty five and a touchdown. Kind of 244 00:11:43,480 --> 00:11:46,880 Speaker 1: reminds me, I'm a Vikingspan. Remember Lee Ray Hoard from 245 00:11:46,920 --> 00:11:49,040 Speaker 1: back in the day, like twenty five years ago. We 246 00:11:49,120 --> 00:11:51,520 Speaker 1: used to say about Leroy Hoard. You need a yard, 247 00:11:51,640 --> 00:11:54,600 Speaker 1: I'll give you three. You need eight yards, I give 248 00:11:54,600 --> 00:11:57,360 Speaker 1: you three. Like that's David Montgomery. He's just gonna give 249 00:11:57,400 --> 00:11:59,520 Speaker 1: you the three yards up the middle. He's gonna find 250 00:11:59,520 --> 00:12:02,960 Speaker 1: the end zone and fifty five in a touchdown. Here's 251 00:12:03,000 --> 00:12:06,280 Speaker 1: the thing He's done that in four of detroit seven 252 00:12:06,360 --> 00:12:09,080 Speaker 1: losses during that span too. Like I said, you can 253 00:12:09,080 --> 00:12:11,240 Speaker 1: play this even if you don't like the Detroit side. 254 00:12:11,520 --> 00:12:12,520 Speaker 1: So that's what I like. 255 00:12:12,559 --> 00:12:12,719 Speaker 4: Here. 256 00:12:12,720 --> 00:12:15,199 Speaker 1: I'm gonna do over fifty six and a half and 257 00:12:15,240 --> 00:12:18,080 Speaker 1: the touchdown it's plus two to twelve. I'm gonna do 258 00:12:18,080 --> 00:12:21,480 Speaker 1: a small escalator just a little bit here. Seventy yards 259 00:12:21,480 --> 00:12:24,520 Speaker 1: in a touchdown is plus three twenty five. I don't 260 00:12:24,520 --> 00:12:26,840 Speaker 1: want to go past that. He doesn't usually have explosive 261 00:12:26,880 --> 00:12:30,200 Speaker 1: long runs. He's not getting doubled touchdowns. If you want 262 00:12:30,200 --> 00:12:33,080 Speaker 1: to play that with the Lions side, I don't mind what. 263 00:12:33,440 --> 00:12:35,200 Speaker 1: I think. He can hit it even in a loss, 264 00:12:35,360 --> 00:12:38,280 Speaker 1: So be creative how you want to combine it. That's 265 00:12:38,360 --> 00:12:40,360 Speaker 1: the way I'm doing it. But I think Montgomery has 266 00:12:40,360 --> 00:12:42,680 Speaker 1: a good but not great game this week. 267 00:12:43,160 --> 00:12:45,680 Speaker 2: Will your unit size come down slightly because of a 268 00:12:45,760 --> 00:12:47,520 Speaker 2: parlay situation? Uh? 269 00:12:47,920 --> 00:12:50,160 Speaker 1: This is the fifty six and a half over in 270 00:12:50,200 --> 00:12:52,400 Speaker 1: a touchdown is a full unit player. That's why I 271 00:12:52,400 --> 00:12:55,240 Speaker 1: wanted this one separate on here. Even at plus two twelve, 272 00:12:55,280 --> 00:12:57,560 Speaker 1: so that's a full unit. The unit size will come 273 00:12:57,600 --> 00:13:00,560 Speaker 1: down on the seventy and a touchdown escalator. That's probably 274 00:13:00,559 --> 00:13:02,880 Speaker 1: like a quarter or a half if you put that 275 00:13:03,000 --> 00:13:06,120 Speaker 1: with a Lion's money line or a Lions minus three, 276 00:13:06,559 --> 00:13:08,480 Speaker 1: probably a little lower as well, maybe like a quarter 277 00:13:08,559 --> 00:13:11,160 Speaker 1: on that. But you're probably not gonna get a ton 278 00:13:11,200 --> 00:13:13,920 Speaker 1: of juice on that either, because the books are gonna 279 00:13:13,960 --> 00:13:16,160 Speaker 1: think that that's correlated. And actually that's why I don't 280 00:13:16,160 --> 00:13:18,960 Speaker 1: mind playing it separately, because the numbers say it's really 281 00:13:19,040 --> 00:13:21,800 Speaker 1: not that correlated, so you might be kind of penalizing 282 00:13:21,800 --> 00:13:24,079 Speaker 1: yourself on it. I'd rather just hit them both separately. 283 00:13:24,120 --> 00:13:26,040 Speaker 1: I think, yeah, you broke it down. 284 00:13:26,280 --> 00:13:27,920 Speaker 2: It's a good good way of putting it, especially if 285 00:13:27,960 --> 00:13:31,079 Speaker 2: it doesn't go your way in the alliances side, it's 286 00:13:31,120 --> 00:13:34,040 Speaker 2: still I still think that that's a good way of 287 00:13:34,040 --> 00:13:36,960 Speaker 2: breaking it down. Zooming all the way to Monday Night 288 00:13:37,280 --> 00:13:40,679 Speaker 2: Jets Bills. It's the first game for New York off 289 00:13:40,720 --> 00:13:43,640 Speaker 2: of Robert Sala, so a new head coach, interim head coach. 290 00:13:43,679 --> 00:13:46,720 Speaker 2: They're changing the play caller. Yet you're gonna come back 291 00:13:46,760 --> 00:13:49,240 Speaker 2: on the other side the unit that has been good 292 00:13:49,320 --> 00:13:51,560 Speaker 2: for the Jets, solad side of the ball, the defense. 293 00:13:52,040 --> 00:13:53,080 Speaker 3: There's an angle here that you. 294 00:13:53,200 --> 00:13:57,160 Speaker 1: Like something that has not yet happened this season. Believe 295 00:13:57,200 --> 00:13:59,280 Speaker 1: it or not. I'm gonna bet on Josh Allen the 296 00:13:59,320 --> 00:14:02,560 Speaker 1: throwing in her set over zero point five interceptions. It's 297 00:14:02,640 --> 00:14:06,240 Speaker 1: minus one twenty. So we'll talk about the matchup here 298 00:14:06,400 --> 00:14:09,120 Speaker 1: more on Sunday night when we get there. These teams 299 00:14:09,120 --> 00:14:11,520 Speaker 1: have split the last two years. The Jets won both 300 00:14:11,559 --> 00:14:14,520 Speaker 1: home games, and they won those home games with absolute 301 00:14:14,640 --> 00:14:18,640 Speaker 1: nightmares from Josh Allen. He has not enjoyed playing this defense, 302 00:14:18,640 --> 00:14:20,840 Speaker 1: which is still the same defense. They still got Jeff 303 00:14:20,920 --> 00:14:23,320 Speaker 1: Ulbrick around to leave the defense, they still got all 304 00:14:23,320 --> 00:14:27,360 Speaker 1: those playmakers. In those two losses at the Jets, he 305 00:14:27,440 --> 00:14:29,680 Speaker 1: got sacked five times each one of those games, and 306 00:14:29,720 --> 00:14:32,400 Speaker 1: he threw five interceptions between the two of them. So 307 00:14:32,520 --> 00:14:35,960 Speaker 1: that's the trend here. Last four games against the Jets, 308 00:14:36,240 --> 00:14:39,400 Speaker 1: six interceptions for Josh Allen. He's at at least one 309 00:14:39,520 --> 00:14:44,200 Speaker 1: three straight at the Jets. This game looks like windy possibly, 310 00:14:44,320 --> 00:14:47,000 Speaker 1: so that could get us there as well. And of 311 00:14:47,000 --> 00:14:48,840 Speaker 1: course I wish for health for players. But if you 312 00:14:48,840 --> 00:14:51,480 Speaker 1: watched last week against Houston, in the fourth quarter, he 313 00:14:51,560 --> 00:14:53,600 Speaker 1: went to the blue tent, he took a hit on 314 00:14:53,640 --> 00:14:56,200 Speaker 1: the ground sure looked like a concussion check to me, 315 00:14:56,360 --> 00:14:59,120 Speaker 1: and made some kind of questionable decisions late there as well. 316 00:15:00,560 --> 00:15:03,200 Speaker 1: I think that's a possibility here that just like he's 317 00:15:03,240 --> 00:15:05,160 Speaker 1: not quite right or something is off, So I have 318 00:15:05,240 --> 00:15:07,680 Speaker 1: to factor that in as well. Alan's not throw an 319 00:15:07,680 --> 00:15:10,720 Speaker 1: interception yet this season, so that seems like, well, why 320 00:15:10,720 --> 00:15:13,280 Speaker 1: do you want to play that now? Well, turnover worthy 321 00:15:13,360 --> 00:15:17,000 Speaker 1: plays from PFF. He has a five point five percent 322 00:15:17,720 --> 00:15:21,240 Speaker 1: turnover worthy pass rate so far. That is his worst 323 00:15:21,360 --> 00:15:23,840 Speaker 1: since his rookie season. It ranks twenty ninth in the 324 00:15:23,960 --> 00:15:28,000 Speaker 1: NFL out of thirty two quarterbacks. So the zero interceptions 325 00:15:28,000 --> 00:15:30,440 Speaker 1: is buying us value. We're getting minus one twenty here. 326 00:15:30,880 --> 00:15:33,600 Speaker 1: I asked their interceptions expert Jill Gallant. He said, this 327 00:15:33,640 --> 00:15:36,480 Speaker 1: is usually more like minus one fifty last year and 328 00:15:36,560 --> 00:15:39,080 Speaker 1: still cash a lot of the time. We're getting a discount. 329 00:15:39,120 --> 00:15:41,640 Speaker 1: We really shouldn't be. We're getting a discount because there's 330 00:15:41,640 --> 00:15:44,200 Speaker 1: a big goose egg on that number. But he's still 331 00:15:44,240 --> 00:15:46,800 Speaker 1: putting the ball up for grabs out there, and you know, 332 00:15:46,840 --> 00:15:48,800 Speaker 1: I have to have a little fun. You can at 333 00:15:48,840 --> 00:15:52,320 Speaker 1: some books sprinkle the two interceptions number against the Jets. 334 00:15:52,400 --> 00:15:55,040 Speaker 1: He's had ten full starts in his career. He's in 335 00:15:55,120 --> 00:15:57,440 Speaker 1: multiple picks four out of the ten in those games. 336 00:15:57,880 --> 00:16:00,560 Speaker 1: Last three seasons twenty four percent. End of the time 337 00:16:00,600 --> 00:16:03,840 Speaker 1: he's had multiple interceptions. That's a little bit on the 338 00:16:03,960 --> 00:16:07,960 Speaker 1: plus three seventy five here is a twenty one percent, 339 00:16:08,000 --> 00:16:09,840 Speaker 1: So just a slight edge there. But if we get 340 00:16:09,840 --> 00:16:12,560 Speaker 1: the first one, that's the typic glescalator really close to 341 00:16:12,600 --> 00:16:16,680 Speaker 1: the second one thirteen hundred odds for three or more interceptions. 342 00:16:16,680 --> 00:16:19,040 Speaker 1: He did do that against the Jets in the opener 343 00:16:19,200 --> 00:16:22,560 Speaker 1: last year. I will just take the allen at least 344 00:16:22,600 --> 00:16:26,200 Speaker 1: one interception on Monday Night Football minus one twenty and 345 00:16:26,360 --> 00:16:28,240 Speaker 1: I'll probably sprinkle a little bit for fun on the 346 00:16:28,240 --> 00:16:30,400 Speaker 1: two plus interceptions plus three seventy five. 347 00:16:30,720 --> 00:16:34,160 Speaker 2: Shout out to our Action Network colleague Sean Zarillo, who 348 00:16:34,200 --> 00:16:37,160 Speaker 2: had another great year in baseball, finishing the MLB regular 349 00:16:37,200 --> 00:16:40,520 Speaker 2: season up more than twenty five units. And with Action Pro, 350 00:16:40,600 --> 00:16:44,200 Speaker 2: you get instant notifications every time Zarillo or any of 351 00:16:44,240 --> 00:16:46,920 Speaker 2: our action experts make a pick in the Action app. 352 00:16:47,320 --> 00:16:51,440 Speaker 2: Just visit actionnetwork dot com slash Pro and use the 353 00:16:51,440 --> 00:16:56,120 Speaker 2: promo code October for fifteen percent off an Action Pro subscription. 354 00:16:56,200 --> 00:17:00,320 Speaker 2: That's fifteen percent off at actionnetwork dot com slash Pro 355 00:17:00,680 --> 00:17:03,720 Speaker 2: with the promo code October and be sure to check 356 00:17:03,760 --> 00:17:07,159 Speaker 2: out Sean every week talking MLB playoffs. 357 00:17:06,600 --> 00:17:08,320 Speaker 3: On the Payoff Pitch podcast. 358 00:17:09,480 --> 00:17:17,920 Speaker 2: All right, on to the lightning round, then Lightning round, Lighting. 359 00:17:18,000 --> 00:17:20,879 Speaker 2: You got a couple lightning round picks here, Brandon. First, 360 00:17:21,000 --> 00:17:23,159 Speaker 2: you're gonna go to the Eagles. I'm seeing six and 361 00:17:23,200 --> 00:17:25,480 Speaker 2: a half's out there for a first half number. You 362 00:17:25,520 --> 00:17:27,520 Speaker 2: have a number at four and a half. Would you 363 00:17:27,520 --> 00:17:29,080 Speaker 2: play it at six and a half to cover a 364 00:17:29,119 --> 00:17:31,720 Speaker 2: first half number against the Cleveland Browns? 365 00:17:32,119 --> 00:17:35,440 Speaker 1: Off the shop around, I would not want the six 366 00:17:35,480 --> 00:17:37,200 Speaker 1: and a half. Part of the play here is getting 367 00:17:37,240 --> 00:17:39,040 Speaker 1: under the six. I've seen four and a half in 368 00:17:39,119 --> 00:17:40,560 Speaker 1: five and a half, So I think it might depend 369 00:17:40,600 --> 00:17:41,960 Speaker 1: on the book that you're looking at. But let me 370 00:17:41,960 --> 00:17:44,480 Speaker 1: make the case here. Both of these lightning picks here 371 00:17:44,520 --> 00:17:47,960 Speaker 1: are first half play So Eagles first half minus four 372 00:17:48,000 --> 00:17:49,680 Speaker 1: and a half five and a half doesn't make a 373 00:17:49,720 --> 00:17:52,800 Speaker 1: big difference to me against the Browns. It's a great spot. 374 00:17:52,840 --> 00:17:54,399 Speaker 1: I think to invest in the Eagles out of the 375 00:17:54,400 --> 00:17:57,119 Speaker 1: bye week, so you get AJ brown back. DeVante Smith 376 00:17:57,200 --> 00:17:59,639 Speaker 1: is back. Those are the big names. I think the 377 00:17:59,640 --> 00:18:02,200 Speaker 1: big name is Lane Johnson, right tackle. He's the guy 378 00:18:02,240 --> 00:18:05,080 Speaker 1: they need to have back. He's back as well. Early 379 00:18:05,160 --> 00:18:08,560 Speaker 1: bye week worked out great for Philadelphia. Two new coordinators. 380 00:18:08,800 --> 00:18:10,480 Speaker 1: They're two and two out of the gates. They sort 381 00:18:10,480 --> 00:18:12,879 Speaker 1: of feel a little bit overlooked right now and forgotten about. 382 00:18:13,280 --> 00:18:14,520 Speaker 1: This is when you want to come out of the 383 00:18:14,560 --> 00:18:16,520 Speaker 1: bye week and settle in a little bit. Right Your 384 00:18:16,520 --> 00:18:19,440 Speaker 1: team hasn't been healthy. You've been putting in new schemes 385 00:18:19,440 --> 00:18:22,280 Speaker 1: on both sides of the ball. Catch our breath, right, 386 00:18:22,400 --> 00:18:25,120 Speaker 1: catch our breath. You know it'd be great a game 387 00:18:25,160 --> 00:18:27,640 Speaker 1: against the Browns, a home game against the Browns. That'd 388 00:18:27,640 --> 00:18:30,040 Speaker 1: be a real good scrimmage coming out of the bye week. 389 00:18:30,400 --> 00:18:32,880 Speaker 1: I'm actively looking for ways to pay this Browns team 390 00:18:32,920 --> 00:18:36,639 Speaker 1: because apparently we're still doing the Deshaun Watson thing. I 391 00:18:36,680 --> 00:18:39,200 Speaker 1: don't know why. It's got to be ownership. At this point. 392 00:18:39,600 --> 00:18:43,480 Speaker 1: The Browns are averaging for the season three point eight 393 00:18:43,560 --> 00:18:46,320 Speaker 1: yards per play. The next lowest team in the NFL 394 00:18:46,440 --> 00:18:48,840 Speaker 1: is a half yard above that at four point three. 395 00:18:48,920 --> 00:18:52,880 Speaker 1: And we're still not changing out the quarterback. And it's 396 00:18:52,920 --> 00:18:56,320 Speaker 1: not just the offense. I think Jim Schwartz's defense starting 397 00:18:56,320 --> 00:18:57,879 Speaker 1: to get a little bit exposed as well, from as 398 00:18:57,920 --> 00:19:00,199 Speaker 1: good as they were last year to a franchise that 399 00:19:00,320 --> 00:19:03,280 Speaker 1: knows him real, well, you might recall, and had a 400 00:19:03,280 --> 00:19:06,800 Speaker 1: little extra time to prep for a very predictable Jim 401 00:19:06,880 --> 00:19:10,040 Speaker 1: Schwartz defense that likes to do what it does. I 402 00:19:10,119 --> 00:19:13,040 Speaker 1: just see a possibility here for a really good spot 403 00:19:13,040 --> 00:19:15,240 Speaker 1: for the Eagles, so to minus ninne and a half 404 00:19:15,240 --> 00:19:17,600 Speaker 1: on the line. I don't love that. There's a lot 405 00:19:17,600 --> 00:19:19,960 Speaker 1: of team magnostic trends that say, hey, that's a little high. 406 00:19:20,080 --> 00:19:22,280 Speaker 1: You should be back in Cleveland here. I want no 407 00:19:22,320 --> 00:19:24,480 Speaker 1: part of Cleveland. I want Eagles. So that's why I 408 00:19:24,480 --> 00:19:26,959 Speaker 1: went to the first half. I went under the seven. 409 00:19:27,400 --> 00:19:30,239 Speaker 1: I hopefully want under the six again. Shop around for that. 410 00:19:30,359 --> 00:19:33,040 Speaker 1: Try to get under the six if you can. Brown's 411 00:19:33,080 --> 00:19:35,840 Speaker 1: first half so far this season one and four against 412 00:19:35,880 --> 00:19:38,320 Speaker 1: the spread. The four times they have failed to cover, 413 00:19:38,400 --> 00:19:41,560 Speaker 1: they've been outscored seventy five to sixteen. Now here's the 414 00:19:41,680 --> 00:19:44,359 Speaker 1: thing I have to mention it. There's only two teams 415 00:19:44,400 --> 00:19:46,160 Speaker 1: worse than the Browns in the first half so far. 416 00:19:46,840 --> 00:19:49,399 Speaker 1: One of them is the Eagles, who are zero and 417 00:19:49,520 --> 00:19:51,399 Speaker 1: four in the first half, who have yet to score 418 00:19:51,400 --> 00:19:54,520 Speaker 1: in the first quarter. So I don't love that. However, 419 00:19:55,119 --> 00:19:57,480 Speaker 1: if I know that the Eagles know that, and to me, 420 00:19:57,600 --> 00:19:59,800 Speaker 1: that's the exact sort of thing you address in up 421 00:19:59,800 --> 00:20:02,840 Speaker 1: by week. You script the plays, you get that first 422 00:20:02,880 --> 00:20:05,280 Speaker 1: fifteen to twenty plays out, you get the early score 423 00:20:05,359 --> 00:20:08,000 Speaker 1: on a beatable defense that you know what's coming. A 424 00:20:08,040 --> 00:20:11,080 Speaker 1: lot of good first half trends supporting home favorites out 425 00:20:11,080 --> 00:20:13,639 Speaker 1: of the bye week. So give me the Eagles first 426 00:20:13,680 --> 00:20:16,320 Speaker 1: half at the Browns. I got at minus four and 427 00:20:16,359 --> 00:20:18,360 Speaker 1: a half. Try to get under six if you can 428 00:20:18,840 --> 00:20:21,080 Speaker 1: take what you need to. 429 00:20:20,480 --> 00:20:25,720 Speaker 2: Aj Brown back, DeVante Smith back in full Health's a 430 00:20:25,760 --> 00:20:28,240 Speaker 2: get right strong start game. 431 00:20:28,359 --> 00:20:30,399 Speaker 3: If they want to keep Sirianni in check. 432 00:20:30,840 --> 00:20:33,560 Speaker 2: Well, Kellen Moore too. We're going to be fair, all right. 433 00:20:33,800 --> 00:20:36,639 Speaker 2: Next one first half team total. 434 00:20:36,400 --> 00:20:39,440 Speaker 1: Like another first half Birds play, give me the Falcons 435 00:20:39,440 --> 00:20:41,800 Speaker 1: this time give me the over thirteen and a half 436 00:20:41,800 --> 00:20:43,760 Speaker 1: points team total. So I didn't think I'd even be 437 00:20:43,840 --> 00:20:46,640 Speaker 1: interested in this game. Tell I looked at what Caroline 438 00:20:46,640 --> 00:20:49,520 Speaker 1: has been doing the first half. So these teams play 439 00:20:49,560 --> 00:20:52,080 Speaker 1: a lot of like goofy games. They split the last 440 00:20:52,080 --> 00:20:55,400 Speaker 1: four seasons seven out of those eight games within ten points. 441 00:20:55,960 --> 00:20:57,359 Speaker 1: A lot of people are on Carolina in this one. 442 00:20:57,359 --> 00:20:59,879 Speaker 1: I think that's probably the right side. Overall. Here's what 443 00:20:59,920 --> 00:21:02,120 Speaker 1: I know about the teams the Falcons offense is finally 444 00:21:02,119 --> 00:21:05,080 Speaker 1: getting their rhythm right. We saw how ugly it was early. 445 00:21:05,480 --> 00:21:07,840 Speaker 1: They look good against the Saints, they look good against 446 00:21:08,280 --> 00:21:11,640 Speaker 1: the Buccaneers. They put up sixty two points on those 447 00:21:11,640 --> 00:21:14,200 Speaker 1: two teams on pretty good defenses and pretty tough schemes 448 00:21:14,240 --> 00:21:16,480 Speaker 1: the last couple of weeks. Now they get the long 449 00:21:16,560 --> 00:21:19,520 Speaker 1: rest after Thursday night. So I like that. I don't 450 00:21:19,560 --> 00:21:22,800 Speaker 1: like the Panthers defense. I'm out. Panthers Island were cooked. 451 00:21:22,840 --> 00:21:27,760 Speaker 1: It's gone, it's over. They're thirty. Shaq Thompson is out, 452 00:21:28,080 --> 00:21:30,639 Speaker 1: Derek Brown is out. Those are like the only two 453 00:21:30,720 --> 00:21:32,760 Speaker 1: guys I liked on the defense in the first place. 454 00:21:32,840 --> 00:21:35,840 Speaker 1: The defense never improved anyway, even with the bump. They're 455 00:21:35,840 --> 00:21:39,040 Speaker 1: allowing thirty three points a game. Dead last. So remember 456 00:21:39,080 --> 00:21:42,280 Speaker 1: the kitchen sink game, the Dalton game. That's the one 457 00:21:42,359 --> 00:21:44,960 Speaker 1: game Carolina came out and look good early twenty one 458 00:21:45,080 --> 00:21:48,160 Speaker 1: seven they let at the halftime. Here's the other four 459 00:21:48,200 --> 00:21:50,760 Speaker 1: Panthers games so far. At the half, Carolina is the 460 00:21:50,800 --> 00:21:53,399 Speaker 1: bad one. And all these, by the way, thirty to three, 461 00:21:53,960 --> 00:21:57,399 Speaker 1: twenty nothing, twenty one to fourteen, and twenty seven to seven, 462 00:21:57,840 --> 00:22:01,840 Speaker 1: they're getting smoked instantly. They allowed three, three, three and 463 00:22:01,920 --> 00:22:06,400 Speaker 1: four touchdowns to the Saints, Raiders, Bengals, and Bears. That's 464 00:22:06,440 --> 00:22:09,679 Speaker 1: not exactly a murderer's row of offenses in there. They 465 00:22:09,720 --> 00:22:11,720 Speaker 1: can't do anything. It's an average score of twenty four 466 00:22:11,720 --> 00:22:15,000 Speaker 1: and a half to six at the half. So I 467 00:22:15,119 --> 00:22:17,760 Speaker 1: like the Falcons here. I think they get some scores. 468 00:22:18,280 --> 00:22:20,919 Speaker 1: Look at your book, there's some options here. I like 469 00:22:21,000 --> 00:22:23,280 Speaker 1: the over thirteen and a half the best that's not 470 00:22:23,400 --> 00:22:26,320 Speaker 1: available everywhere. Some books have just over one and a 471 00:22:26,359 --> 00:22:29,200 Speaker 1: half touchdowns if you prefer that one. If you need 472 00:22:29,240 --> 00:22:32,840 Speaker 1: to just Atlanta minus three and a half to cover 473 00:22:32,920 --> 00:22:35,240 Speaker 1: that at the half, that would be my last pick 474 00:22:35,280 --> 00:22:37,720 Speaker 1: of the three. But I think any of them look 475 00:22:37,760 --> 00:22:39,640 Speaker 1: pretty good the way that the Panthers have come out 476 00:22:39,680 --> 00:22:43,320 Speaker 1: so cold early. So official bet for the podcast the 477 00:22:43,359 --> 00:22:46,959 Speaker 1: Atlanta Dirty Bird Falcons over thirteen and a half points 478 00:22:47,000 --> 00:22:47,800 Speaker 1: in the first half. 479 00:22:48,240 --> 00:22:49,600 Speaker 3: Last one in the lightning round. 480 00:22:49,680 --> 00:22:51,240 Speaker 1: There's hope Drake May. 481 00:22:51,280 --> 00:22:55,840 Speaker 2: It's maytime Patriots plus seven and it could be gross 482 00:22:55,840 --> 00:22:58,520 Speaker 2: out weatherwise, so we're happy that May starting at quarterback. 483 00:22:58,520 --> 00:23:00,600 Speaker 2: But the weather does not look great. It's going to Sunday, 484 00:23:00,680 --> 00:23:03,040 Speaker 2: good chance of rain, won't be too cold. It's not 485 00:23:03,160 --> 00:23:06,440 Speaker 2: quite December November December weather in New England. But once 486 00:23:06,480 --> 00:23:08,639 Speaker 2: again at Patriots under. But you like the Pats and 487 00:23:08,720 --> 00:23:10,960 Speaker 2: the seven and the under, you gotta same game parlay this. 488 00:23:11,320 --> 00:23:13,440 Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm the same game parlay eight. It's plus two 489 00:23:13,480 --> 00:23:16,320 Speaker 1: forty to take the under and the Pats plus the seven. 490 00:23:16,880 --> 00:23:19,400 Speaker 1: And I usually do these because I think they're correlated, 491 00:23:19,440 --> 00:23:21,760 Speaker 1: and because, quite frankly, if I'm gonna play something in 492 00:23:21,760 --> 00:23:24,320 Speaker 1: this gross the Patriots, I need little extra juice for 493 00:23:24,359 --> 00:23:27,360 Speaker 1: my money, So give me the plus two forty. Look, 494 00:23:27,440 --> 00:23:29,680 Speaker 1: Drake May, I thought it was real weird that we're 495 00:23:29,680 --> 00:23:32,560 Speaker 1: starting our rookie quarterback against this really good defense, against 496 00:23:32,600 --> 00:23:36,320 Speaker 1: Daniel Hunter and Will Anderson. Here's the thing good Brissette 497 00:23:36,440 --> 00:23:39,080 Speaker 1: is a statue. He cannot move around back there. The 498 00:23:39,160 --> 00:23:42,119 Speaker 1: thing that Drake May specifically is good at in the 499 00:23:42,160 --> 00:23:45,879 Speaker 1: scouting report is moving in the pocket, throwing off platform, 500 00:23:46,000 --> 00:23:50,040 Speaker 1: handling the pressure. So I actually think maybe on purpose 501 00:23:50,080 --> 00:23:52,200 Speaker 1: there starting Drake May in this game to give themselves 502 00:23:52,240 --> 00:23:54,880 Speaker 1: a little bit of some juice here Brisset, the Patriots 503 00:23:54,920 --> 00:23:56,600 Speaker 1: are only averaging twelve and a half points a game. 504 00:23:56,640 --> 00:23:58,880 Speaker 1: They haven't cracked twenty with him. To get a little 505 00:23:58,880 --> 00:24:00,480 Speaker 1: more variance here, and with this as bad as the 506 00:24:00,480 --> 00:24:03,640 Speaker 1: Patriots offense has been in this case, I like the variants. 507 00:24:04,040 --> 00:24:07,240 Speaker 1: Houston is the number one luckiest team in our luck rankings, 508 00:24:07,280 --> 00:24:09,520 Speaker 1: so this is a luck play here on the Patriots. 509 00:24:10,040 --> 00:24:12,879 Speaker 1: And really I just continue to bet a little bit 510 00:24:12,920 --> 00:24:15,440 Speaker 1: against Houston. And now Nico Collin is out, I think 511 00:24:15,440 --> 00:24:18,040 Speaker 1: that's a huge loss for them. Tank Dell's not been 512 00:24:18,040 --> 00:24:20,880 Speaker 1: as good this season. Their offensive line's not great. They're 513 00:24:20,880 --> 00:24:23,359 Speaker 1: not running the football in Houston. It's a lot of CJ. 514 00:24:23,520 --> 00:24:26,200 Speaker 1: Stroud do some miracles on third down, and he might 515 00:24:26,240 --> 00:24:29,280 Speaker 1: do that, but I think with Nico out, there's a 516 00:24:29,280 --> 00:24:32,920 Speaker 1: lot less optionality here and New England can hang defensively. 517 00:24:33,600 --> 00:24:36,679 Speaker 1: I was surprised by this stat Brennan. CJ. Stroud is 518 00:24:36,800 --> 00:24:39,800 Speaker 1: one in six against the spread for his career against 519 00:24:39,800 --> 00:24:43,760 Speaker 1: sub five hundred teams. For whatever reason, he and Tamiko 520 00:24:43,880 --> 00:24:46,320 Speaker 1: Ryans have not been coming out and putting away these 521 00:24:46,359 --> 00:24:49,119 Speaker 1: tough teams or these these not so tough teams, I guess. 522 00:24:49,600 --> 00:24:52,800 Speaker 1: So yeah, I was surprised by that these teams are 523 00:24:52,840 --> 00:24:55,920 Speaker 1: seven to three to the undercombined. Houston is actually better 524 00:24:55,960 --> 00:24:58,880 Speaker 1: to the under a four to one, so I think 525 00:24:58,920 --> 00:25:01,960 Speaker 1: this line has been dropped here the total. I like 526 00:25:02,040 --> 00:25:04,040 Speaker 1: the Pats plus the seven. But if I do like 527 00:25:04,119 --> 00:25:06,680 Speaker 1: them plus the seven, I have to feel like it's 528 00:25:06,720 --> 00:25:09,000 Speaker 1: an under. I have to feel like those are correlated. 529 00:25:09,520 --> 00:25:13,000 Speaker 1: So I'll put those together. Patriots plus seven under the 530 00:25:13,040 --> 00:25:16,159 Speaker 1: thirty eight a same game parlay at plus two forty. 531 00:25:16,840 --> 00:25:19,360 Speaker 2: To be fair to Houston, they've had higher totals, probably 532 00:25:19,560 --> 00:25:23,480 Speaker 2: the New England. Yeah, this is not a spot though, 533 00:25:23,520 --> 00:25:25,560 Speaker 2: that you'll play the under down to, like thirty right 534 00:25:25,680 --> 00:25:27,959 Speaker 2: or thirty now. 535 00:25:28,119 --> 00:25:29,720 Speaker 1: This is this is not a mind shot. But I 536 00:25:29,760 --> 00:25:34,000 Speaker 1: will say I was gonna noine if you'll like the 537 00:25:34,080 --> 00:25:37,600 Speaker 1: spot here, I just a gut feeling I will see. 538 00:25:37,600 --> 00:25:41,600 Speaker 1: I may sprinkle a little bit. Keep the under Pat's 539 00:25:41,640 --> 00:25:45,440 Speaker 1: money line, Pat's outright plus the unders plus five point 540 00:25:45,440 --> 00:25:49,120 Speaker 1: fifty if it's ugly, if it's low scoring, if it's 541 00:25:49,160 --> 00:25:53,000 Speaker 1: close and the Patriots cover, I don't know, maybe that 542 00:25:53,080 --> 00:25:55,280 Speaker 1: luck evens out for Houston a little bit and we 543 00:25:55,359 --> 00:25:57,399 Speaker 1: even out the records a bit. I could see this 544 00:25:57,600 --> 00:26:00,000 Speaker 1: being one of those big upsets. We're seeing those every week. 545 00:26:00,119 --> 00:26:01,879 Speaker 1: Right now, Okay, let's wrap. 546 00:26:02,080 --> 00:26:04,000 Speaker 2: We'll spend just a couple of minutes here on your 547 00:26:04,040 --> 00:26:05,600 Speaker 2: look ahead for week seven. 548 00:26:07,080 --> 00:26:07,879 Speaker 3: Let's look ahead. 549 00:26:08,119 --> 00:26:08,840 Speaker 1: Just give it a shot. 550 00:26:08,880 --> 00:26:10,120 Speaker 3: How about next week? 551 00:26:10,640 --> 00:26:17,640 Speaker 1: I got my mind set, my mindset. We're going back 552 00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:20,600 Speaker 1: to a familiar play here, which is we're fading the Giants. 553 00:26:20,640 --> 00:26:22,880 Speaker 1: I think for the fourth straight week here, we're gonna 554 00:26:22,880 --> 00:26:25,560 Speaker 1: take the Eagles minus three and a half at the Giants. 555 00:26:26,040 --> 00:26:28,280 Speaker 1: I think the market's still a little bit artificially high 556 00:26:28,280 --> 00:26:30,800 Speaker 1: on the Giants after that win in Seattle. We talked 557 00:26:30,800 --> 00:26:33,399 Speaker 1: about the Eagles already. I like the Eagles to have 558 00:26:33,440 --> 00:26:35,960 Speaker 1: a big win against the Browns. We talked about the 559 00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:38,720 Speaker 1: Giants already. I'm picking the Bengals to beat the Giants, 560 00:26:39,040 --> 00:26:41,280 Speaker 1: so naturally, if I think the Giants lose, I think 561 00:26:41,280 --> 00:26:43,920 Speaker 1: the Eagles win big or win comfortably, then this line 562 00:26:44,000 --> 00:26:47,399 Speaker 1: probably moves already. It's four and a half some books. 563 00:26:47,400 --> 00:26:50,280 Speaker 1: I think it could even get towards six territory if 564 00:26:50,280 --> 00:26:53,280 Speaker 1: the games go our way. The Eagles are back healthy again, 565 00:26:53,320 --> 00:26:56,480 Speaker 1: now they're getting their stars back. The Giants' strength is 566 00:26:56,480 --> 00:26:59,400 Speaker 1: their defensive line, Dexter Lawrence, those guys up front, well, 567 00:26:59,440 --> 00:27:02,400 Speaker 1: Philadelphia strength is their offensive line. I think they can 568 00:27:02,480 --> 00:27:06,600 Speaker 1: hold off enough Dexter Lawrence. And don't forget that new 569 00:27:06,600 --> 00:27:08,359 Speaker 1: player on the Eagles. It's been pretty good this year. 570 00:27:08,400 --> 00:27:12,000 Speaker 1: Who has not been injured? Segu On Barkley revenge game 571 00:27:12,200 --> 00:27:15,680 Speaker 1: at the Giants. Yes, please, I will have another, sir, 572 00:27:15,800 --> 00:27:19,120 Speaker 1: Thank you very much. This rivalry has not been competitive. 573 00:27:19,119 --> 00:27:21,320 Speaker 1: The Giants did win Week eighteen last year, kind of 574 00:27:21,320 --> 00:27:25,200 Speaker 1: a meaningless game, didn't matter. Before that, Eagles had won 575 00:27:25,320 --> 00:27:27,639 Speaker 1: five in a row against the Giants. They averaged thirty 576 00:27:27,640 --> 00:27:31,040 Speaker 1: five points a game, at least six points win every 577 00:27:31,040 --> 00:27:34,000 Speaker 1: game that wins by twenty four, twenty six, and thirty 578 00:27:34,040 --> 00:27:36,560 Speaker 1: one in that stretch. So I don't think that this 579 00:27:36,640 --> 00:27:39,320 Speaker 1: is going to be that close of a rivalry game here. 580 00:27:39,800 --> 00:27:42,199 Speaker 1: This has been just a great matchup for the Eagles 581 00:27:42,200 --> 00:27:44,840 Speaker 1: against the Giants. I want to grab it before this 582 00:27:44,880 --> 00:27:47,040 Speaker 1: weekend based on where I think the games are gonna go. 583 00:27:47,119 --> 00:27:49,160 Speaker 1: So Eagles minus three and a half, get it below 584 00:27:49,200 --> 00:27:50,399 Speaker 1: that key number if you can. 585 00:27:50,760 --> 00:27:51,400 Speaker 3: Yeah, very good. 586 00:27:51,400 --> 00:27:53,960 Speaker 2: Point yep, Eagles home to Cleveland. You just dumped on 587 00:27:54,000 --> 00:27:56,199 Speaker 2: the Browns and then as your first best bet was 588 00:27:56,240 --> 00:28:00,000 Speaker 2: you had the you had the Bengals defeating the Giant. 589 00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:02,800 Speaker 2: It's in covering, so that makes sense as far as 590 00:28:02,840 --> 00:28:05,200 Speaker 2: what the line could look like after this weekend, he's 591 00:28:05,200 --> 00:28:08,000 Speaker 2: Brandon Anderson. Find him in the free award winning Action 592 00:28:08,160 --> 00:28:11,600 Speaker 2: Network app. It's free to download. Also check out the 593 00:28:11,640 --> 00:28:14,080 Speaker 2: rest of our Action NFL contributors. You can track your 594 00:28:14,119 --> 00:28:17,040 Speaker 2: own picks as well. Check out the Action Network Discord 595 00:28:17,160 --> 00:28:20,359 Speaker 2: channel with our other experts and fellow gamblers during the games. 596 00:28:20,359 --> 00:28:23,040 Speaker 2: There's a link to the discord in the description of 597 00:28:23,080 --> 00:28:26,080 Speaker 2: this episode, and don't miss also here in the Action 598 00:28:26,160 --> 00:28:29,879 Speaker 2: Network podcast the Week six betting preview from Stucky and 599 00:28:29,960 --> 00:28:32,919 Speaker 2: raybaon the Sunday six Pack, which is out now and 600 00:28:33,080 --> 00:28:34,680 Speaker 2: we'll be back out it next week for more best 601 00:28:34,680 --> 00:28:37,120 Speaker 2: bets for Brandon Anderson. Brendan Glashan, thanks for tuning in 602 00:28:37,320 --> 00:28:39,320 Speaker 2: to Week six NFL Best Bets. 603 00:28:39,040 --> 00:28:53,200 Speaker 4: Here on the Action Network podcast. 604 00:28:55,960 --> 00:29:00,840 Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. You or someone 605 00:29:00,880 --> 00:29:03,840 Speaker 2: you care about has a gambling problem. Help is available 606 00:29:03,920 --> 00:29:06,440 Speaker 2: twenty four seven at one eight hundred Gambler