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Speaker 3: Welcome in. It is What's Right with Nick Right the
Speaker 3: podcast and YouTube show. It is episode sixty nine. It
Speaker 3: is at Work, Week two NFL Gambling Show. Before we
Speaker 3: get into what we did in week one, little parameters.
Speaker 3: If you're new to it, if you didn't listen to
Speaker 3: week one, we break We don't necessarily break down, but
Speaker 3: we at least touch on all sixteen games. We put
Speaker 3: them into four different categories. Stay away, we'll explain that
Speaker 3: when we get there. Be careful. We'll explain that perfectly priced.
Speaker 3: That self explanatory. And then the fourth category is our picks.
Speaker 3: We do five picks every week. We give you one
Speaker 3: of those will be our lock of the week. We'll
Speaker 3: also give you a survivor pick at the end of
Speaker 3: the show, and we will keep track of how we're
Speaker 3: doing throughout the year. And my commitment to you is
Speaker 3: I will bet these games that I tell you myself
Speaker 3: each and every week. So last week started off terribly.
Speaker 3: This show came out on Friday. I talked all about
Speaker 3: why I thought the Rams shouldn't be two and a
Speaker 3: half point underdogs. They end up losing by twenty one
Speaker 3: points the rest of the weekend. Though, I'm proud of
Speaker 3: how we did, even though we only went two and
Speaker 3: two the rest of the week, which is two and
Speaker 3: three overall. So why am I happy with it? Carolina,
Speaker 3: when we did the show was minus one and a half.
Speaker 3: By kickoff, they were plus one and a half, so
Speaker 3: the line had moved against us, but in the direction
Speaker 3: that we were thinking on the bet. Caroline ends up
Speaker 3: losing at the gun on a fifty eight yard field goal.
Speaker 3: I don't think we were on the wrong side of
Speaker 3: that bet. Jacksonville, I know we weren't on the wrong
Speaker 3: side of that bet. They dropped two touchdown passes despite
Speaker 3: all that they had a lead. We had them catching
Speaker 3: two and a half points. They had a lead, a
Speaker 3: two point lead, by the way, with a minute remaining,
Speaker 3: minute and a half remaining, and they let Carson Wentz
Speaker 3: drive the length of the field for a touchdown two
Speaker 3: point conversion. If they had just held into a field goal,
Speaker 3: we cover that one. And then obviously Miami covered by
Speaker 3: a million, Baltimore covered by a million. So we were
Speaker 3: two and three. But in my opinion, we were only
Speaker 3: truly off, way off on one game. We got a
Speaker 3: little unlucky on the Jags game. Even if the Carolina
Speaker 3: and Cleveland, I don't think we got on lucky, but
Speaker 3: I don't think we're on the wrong side of it,
Speaker 3: So I'm happy with it. Two and three is not great,
Speaker 3: but it's obviously not a disaster, and I'm I'm fine
Speaker 3: with how we did. We can deal with two in
Speaker 3: three weeks. What we can't deal with is one in
Speaker 3: four weeks, and we certainly can't deal with only five weeks.
Speaker 3: So the five games will be picking today are the following.
Speaker 3: I'm not going to tell you which side of these yet,
Speaker 3: but the five games we're picking is Miami at Baltimore,
Speaker 3: Cincinnati at Dallas, Arizona at the Raiders, Chicago at Green Bay,
Speaker 3: and Minnesota at Philly. Those will be our five picks.
Speaker 3: So what about the other eleven games? They're in three
Speaker 3: different categories. We start with the stay aways, and I
Speaker 3: explained give you a little analysis on the games and
Speaker 3: why they are where they are. Demons. What's the first
Speaker 3: stay away?
Speaker 2: First stay away is Browns favored by six points at
Speaker 2: home against the Jets.
Speaker 3: Okay, there's two games in this category that are stay
Speaker 3: aways for multiple reasons, the first of which being you
Speaker 3: don't want to watch this game. This is a disease
Speaker 3: if you wait all year when we start the clock
Speaker 3: for Sunday football. Unless you have a huge lean on
Speaker 3: a game as awful as Joe Flacco against against Jacoby Brissett,
Speaker 3: I have no idea why you would ever want to bet,
Speaker 3: why you'd want to watch this game? Now, gambling wise,
Speaker 3: that's not sound. Gambling wise, you don't not bet something
Speaker 3: because you don't want to watch it. But for tie breakers,
Speaker 3: I'm fine with it. So now, also, why is this
Speaker 3: a stay away? Well, I said last week that we
Speaker 3: were going to bet against Joe Flacco every game the
Speaker 3: rest of his career. Okay, but in order to do that,
Speaker 3: I have to lay six points with Jacoby Brissett. I
Speaker 3: have to lay six points with Jacoby Brissett not interested.
Speaker 3: So because I'm certainly not backing Flacco, I'm certainly not
Speaker 3: laying nearly a touchdown with Jacoby Brissett. Flatly, stay away,
Speaker 3: all right? What's the next on.
Speaker 2: The next one? Is Detroit favored by one and a
Speaker 2: half at home against Washington?
Speaker 3: Okay, So the first reason this is in the stayway
Speaker 3: category is the same reason Jet's Cleveland is you don't
Speaker 3: want to watch this awful football game. The second reason
Speaker 3: this is in the stayweay category is I don't really
Speaker 3: know what I was seeing week one with either team.
Speaker 3: So we know what Carson Wentzy is. He's going to
Speaker 3: make the occasional great play like he did in Week one,
Speaker 3: and make the occasional disastrous play like he did a
Speaker 3: couple times in Week one. We know that. But is
Speaker 3: Washington better than I expected? Or are the Jaguars worse
Speaker 3: than I thought they'd be, or was it just kind
Speaker 3: of week one, new coach in Jacksonville, some bad luck.
Speaker 3: I don't know. Detroit, on the other hand, is their
Speaker 3: defense that awful? But On the flip side, is their
Speaker 3: offense that potent, is their offensive line that good? Or
Speaker 3: is Phillys d line a little overrated? I just don't know.
Speaker 3: I just feel like there are so many unknowns here.
Speaker 3: Plus it's a gross game. I don't want to watch it.
Speaker 3: We're staying away from it.
Speaker 2: Next one, Niners favored by nine and a half at
Speaker 2: home against Seattle.
Speaker 3: Okay, so the Niners favored by nine.
Speaker 2: And a half, your super Bowl team.
Speaker 3: It's my super Bowl team. I believe they're going to
Speaker 3: get it right. Week one, it was in a monsoon,
Speaker 3: so a lot of stuff happening. I am certainly not
Speaker 3: going to back Seattle coming on a short week on
Speaker 3: the road, coming off that emotional win. However, as high
Speaker 3: as I am on San Francisco, I am not ready
Speaker 3: to lay two scores on Trey Lanx. I think he's
Speaker 3: going to be very good by the end of the year.
Speaker 3: But I'm not gonna lay nine and a half points
Speaker 3: on a guy who now was in the monsoon. They
Speaker 3: didn't have Kittle. I understand all of that, but in
Speaker 3: his one NFL start they scored ten points. I'm not
Speaker 3: gonna lay nine and a half. I'm also not gonna
Speaker 3: back Seattle, who might be as bad as people thought
Speaker 3: they were gonna be. They were not. They scored zero
Speaker 3: points the second half, and people are maybe slightly now
Speaker 3: overrating them a bit because they're overrating the Broncos, like, oh,
Speaker 3: they're betting so so to me, that is a vented
Speaker 3: stay away game. I'm not If I had to bet
Speaker 3: a side, I'd bet the Niners. But I don't want
Speaker 3: to lay nine and a half points with Trey Lance
Speaker 3: making his fifth start in the last three years. I don't.
Speaker 3: I'm not saying he's not that good, just too many
Speaker 3: points and I don't want to bet. Usually, if it's
Speaker 3: too many points, it means take the underdog. I don't
Speaker 3: want to back Seattle. It's a stay away if you've
Speaker 3: got to have discipline, demon's we gotta find the games
Speaker 3: we're staying away from so we can find the games
Speaker 3: we want to bet. It's not complicated.
Speaker 2: Next, all right, the Giants favored by two at home
Speaker 2: against the Panther.
Speaker 3: Here's the deal on that. My initially inclination was this
Speaker 3: was one of my picks. I had Carolina plus two
Speaker 3: is one of my picks, and then the little you know,
Speaker 3: one final review. I'm like, Nick, how much of this
Speaker 3: is you hoping your takes are right? Because that's a
Speaker 3: problem with me gambling Sometimes sometimes I bet my takes
Speaker 3: rather I bet with what I want to happen, because
Speaker 3: it makes my life easier on television rather than cojin analysis.
Speaker 3: And while Carolina looked good in the fourth quarter and
Speaker 3: Baker looked good in the fourth quarter, they looked horrifyingly
Speaker 3: bad on offense the first three quarters. I don't think
Speaker 3: the Giants are very good. I think people are. The
Speaker 3: Giants looked as bad offensively in the first half as
Speaker 3: Carolina did. And in a situation like this, two bad teams,
Speaker 3: you know, I think Baker's better than Daniel Jones that
Speaker 3: you usually would just say take the points. But it's
Speaker 3: not a lot of points. It's less than a field goal.
Speaker 3: I don't trust the Giants. I want to trust the Panthers,
Speaker 3: but I'm what I'm not gonna allow this. I'm not
Speaker 3: gonna allow that in the first two weeks of the season,
Speaker 3: two of my ten picks are on Baker Mayfield and
Speaker 3: the Carolina Panthers. They haven't earned that, So that's what
Speaker 3: it was initially. Carolina plus two was the bet and
Speaker 3: now it's a stay away. All right. What's the last
Speaker 3: one in the category?
Speaker 2: Last one is Indy three and a half point road
Speaker 2: favorites against the Jags.
Speaker 3: Okay. So I know what a lot of people are thinking, Nick.
Speaker 3: You like the Jags. Yeah, picked them to make the playoffs?
Speaker 3: Go ahead? Do you? I mean go ahead?
Speaker 2: You need them play out seven wins this season?
Speaker 3: Yeah? I bet the over them.
Speaker 2: They threw away a really easy game in Week one,
Speaker 2: so you know, no love for your Jags at home?
Speaker 3: Okay. And they play Indie well, they knocked Indy out
Speaker 3: of the playoffs last year in the final week of
Speaker 3: the season. Yeah, they are catching points at home. And
Speaker 3: while I am high on the Jags, I'm also very
Speaker 3: high on the Colts. If you remember, Yea and the
Speaker 3: Colts played terribly for three quarters, rallied and then in
Speaker 3: overtime took that you know, ended up getting a tie.
Speaker 3: They rallied in the fourth quarter, didn't play well in overtime.
Speaker 3: I I feel if I was going to take a
Speaker 3: side in this game, I would take the Jags. But
Speaker 3: it's to stay away for me for the same reason
Speaker 3: that the Panthers are. Am I going to the first
Speaker 3: two weeks of the season. Each week, use one of
Speaker 3: my five precious picks on a Jacksonville Jaguars team that
Speaker 3: has not earned the level of faith that I that
Speaker 3: I want to have in them. The answer is no,
Speaker 3: and so I think the smart side is Jacksonville plus
Speaker 3: three and a half. I think that is the smart side.
Speaker 3: But do I think it's in play that Jonathan Taylor
Speaker 3: runs rough shot all over them?
Speaker 2: Absolutely?
Speaker 3: And so do I also think that it's in play
Speaker 3: that Indy is act actually oddly the more desperate team,
Speaker 3: even though they got a tie in Week one and
Speaker 3: Jacksonville had a close loss, because Indy has real not
Speaker 3: only playoffs, but maybe you know, division championship aspirations, the
Speaker 3: Jacksonably don't have. I do. So my lean is Jacksonville
Speaker 3: plus three and a half. It is not strong enough,
Speaker 3: given that they bit me last week, and they should
Speaker 3: have covered that game, should have won that game out right.
Speaker 3: That sucked. I'm staying away from it all right, there's
Speaker 3: the full stayaways. Now we're to the be carefuls. What's first?
Speaker 2: Be careful? We got the Steelers are two point home
Speaker 2: underdogs to the Patriots.
Speaker 3: Okay, this is a vintage. Be careful, and let me
Speaker 3: tell you why this is a vintage.
Speaker 2: Be careful.
Speaker 3: I'm gonna read from our What's right group chat yesterday
Speaker 3: or in the evening. Okay, what we have? Okay? So yeah,
Speaker 3: Mac Jones a road favorite. You said that. I also
Speaker 3: got this from. Let me find it real quick from
Speaker 3: your How the bleep are the Steelers underdogs at home
Speaker 3: to the Patriots. Matt then chimed in injured Mac Jones
Speaker 3: victin again. They could play the Patriots offense with ten
Speaker 3: minute on the field and I'd still pick them to win.
Speaker 3: This is why we created the be careful category. No
Speaker 3: disrespect to Victor, no disrespect to Matt. They're not what
Speaker 3: I would call sharp betters. And the whole football world
Speaker 3: saw how awful New England looked in week one. They
Speaker 3: saw Pittsburgh beat Cincinnati in Week one, and they're like,
Speaker 3: Pittsburgh's at home and they're getting points. Oh my god,
Speaker 3: Vegas is made a mistake. Oh my goodness, gracious, how
Speaker 3: could this happen? And then I'll tell you what's gonna happen.
Speaker 3: It's gonna be Sunday around three thirty pm Eastern, and
Speaker 3: Mitch Trubisky is gonna have had two turn and betrailing
Speaker 3: six points midway through the fourth quarter, and Matt and
Speaker 3: Vick are gonna be saying, I don't I'm down a
Speaker 3: touchdown and I think I'm drawing dead here. I don't
Speaker 3: think I have put all my faith in Mitch Trubisky.
Speaker 3: A Steelers team that forced five Joe Burrow turnovers and
Speaker 3: still needed a miss extra a blocked extra point, a
Speaker 3: bad snap, and a miss thirty yard field goal to win.
Speaker 3: With their own fifty yard field goal at the gun,
Speaker 3: they needed five turnovers, a blocked extra point, a missed
Speaker 3: field goal to escape in the final play of overtime.
Speaker 3: Also a Steelers team, and while the Patriots got their
Speaker 3: ass kicked on Sunday, at least that game didn't go
Speaker 3: five quarters. The Steelers game went five quarters. So you
Speaker 3: might say, Nick, with all this, why are you're not
Speaker 3: including the Patriots and your picks. So I'll be damned
Speaker 3: if I'm betting Mac Jones as a road favorite. I'm
Speaker 3: not doing that either. I'm been telling you guys, be
Speaker 3: careful out there, kids, Be careful, all right?
Speaker 2: Next a lot of sense. Denver is ten point favorites
Speaker 2: at home against the Texans.
Speaker 3: All right, I challenge you to find one person in
Speaker 3: America that's bet in the Texans. I challenge you and
Speaker 3: that to be careful. If everyone in the world is
Speaker 3: going to be on Denver, which they will, because oh
Speaker 3: they have to win. It's a bounce back. They're going
Speaker 3: to be in all these teasers, be careful. Nobody likes
Speaker 3: the Texans. The Texans melted down. They also played a
Speaker 3: five quarter game. They're gonna say, oh, Russ has something
Speaker 3: to prove and all that, and he very well might
Speaker 3: do it. Be careful doesn't mean necessarily that I have
Speaker 3: a strong inclination on one side of the bed. It
Speaker 3: simply means I know that the gambling public loves Denver,
Speaker 3: and if the gambling public loves it, I'm skeptical of it.
Speaker 3: Do I think Denver probably kicks the Texans? Ass? I do,
Speaker 3: but I be careful out their kids. No one's betting
Speaker 3: the Texans this week. It's always a dangerous spot. When
Speaker 3: you're getting ready for Sunday football. You put your bets
Speaker 3: in your scrolling Twitter and you see Chad Millman tweet
Speaker 3: eighty eight percent of the Action Networks handle is on
Speaker 3: Denver minus ten you're like, oh boy, I'm in that
Speaker 3: eighty eight percent. All right.
Speaker 2: Next, Oh, Buffalo is ten point home favorites against the Titans.
Speaker 3: Every single thing I just said about Houston Denver applies
Speaker 3: to Tennessee Buffalo. Everyone's on the Bills. Every single person
Speaker 3: thinks the Bills are a juggernaut. The Titans embarrass themselves
Speaker 3: this week. It's at home, the Bills have an extra
Speaker 3: four days of rest, It's on Monday, so they even
Speaker 3: have They basically have a full almost a full bye
Speaker 3: week between games. All of these reasons. Again, I'm not
Speaker 3: saying they're not gonna blow them out. What I am
Speaker 3: saying is no one is betting Tennessee and the only
Speaker 3: people who are betting Tennessee are the sharps. Now, I'm
Speaker 3: not good enough to to bet the Titans even getting
Speaker 3: ten points against Buffalo after how Buffalo looked on Thursday.
Speaker 3: But be careful, folks. There are three games that Vegas
Speaker 3: knows the public is gonna not have even actional Buffalo
Speaker 3: minus ten, Denver minus ten, and Pittsburgh plus two. Be careful,
Speaker 3: all right, Now to the perfectly priced.
Speaker 2: Perfectly priced Chiefs are four point favorites at home against
Speaker 2: the Chargers.
Speaker 3: R this game will have already happened by the time
Speaker 3: you see this show. I think that's just right. You
Speaker 3: might say, Nick, you think the Chargers are almost price, Yeah,
Speaker 3: what's your prod?
Speaker 2: Chief said, four point favorites is perfectly priced. Yeah. So,
Speaker 2: or if they were six point favorites, you would have
Speaker 2: taken the Chargers, your beloved Chiefs.
Speaker 3: Well. I don't bet against the Chiefs. Okay, gambling, I
Speaker 3: don't bet against the Chiefs, but it doesn't mean I
Speaker 3: always bet on them. The Chiefs at minus six, I
Speaker 3: would say the smart side is the Chargers. And here's
Speaker 3: why the Chiefs don't have their kicker. I understand the
Speaker 3: Chargers don't have Keenan Allen, but the Chiefs don't have
Speaker 3: McDuffie their first round rookie corner. But more importantly, the
Speaker 3: Chargers have played the Chiefs incredibly close over the last
Speaker 3: few years. The Chiefs won last year, they lost to
Speaker 3: them once and beat them the other time in overtime.
Speaker 3: They play them well, and so I think the Chiefs
Speaker 3: are a deserved to be greater than four point favorites
Speaker 3: at home against every team in the league except the Chargers.
Speaker 3: I'm not saying the Chargers the second best team in football.
Speaker 3: I'm saying the Chargers play the Chiefs better than anybody.
Speaker 3: They are built to play the Chiefs. They've built that
Speaker 3: team smartly with the Chiefs in mind. I think Chiefs
Speaker 3: minds four is a perfect line. All right?
Speaker 2: Next, all right, well that makes sense. The Bucks are
Speaker 2: two and at you got it? Yeah, the Bucks are
Speaker 2: two and a half point favorites on the road in
Speaker 2: New Orleans.
Speaker 3: All right, I think this line's exactly right. I think
Speaker 3: that New Orleans has played the Bucks credibly tough since
Speaker 3: Brady's gotten there. I understand that they won three out
Speaker 3: of four. I also know that that you know, some
Speaker 3: of those came with Drew Brees. They all came with
Speaker 3: Sean Payton. And New Orleans didn't look great this weekend,
Speaker 3: but you don't want to if it were New Orleans
Speaker 3: plus three, that's an obvious New Orleans bet at three
Speaker 3: three and a half, certainly at two and a half.
Speaker 3: I think the I think the odds makers got this
Speaker 3: exactly right. It's I don't I what do I expect?
Speaker 3: I expect the Bucks to win by about three points,
Speaker 3: and so I think that I think they got this
Speaker 3: exactly right. I don't think New Orleans is going to
Speaker 3: win the game, but I wouldn't be shocked if they did.
Speaker 3: I think the line's just right. We can move on next,
Speaker 3: all right.
Speaker 2: The Rams are ten and a half point favorites at
Speaker 2: home against the Falcons.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's exact. Again, I think it's exactly right. I
Speaker 3: think the Rams, with the extra rest after looking so
Speaker 3: terribly this past weekend, I think they are going to
Speaker 3: be up fourteen seventeen points throughout the majority of the
Speaker 3: second half. And there's the strong potential, as always with Atlanta,
Speaker 3: for a backdoor cover to come get you. You're up
Speaker 3: by seventeen, all of a sudden, the Falcon score a
Speaker 3: garbage time touchdown, Marcus Mariota runs it in. Now they're
Speaker 3: winning by ten game over year. Ten and a half
Speaker 3: doesn't cover. I think that's the exact right line. I
Speaker 3: expect the Rams to win easily, but I wouldn't bet
Speaker 3: either side of it. The five games I would bet
Speaker 3: are the Vikings at the Eagles, the Cardinals at Arizona,
Speaker 3: I'm sorry, the Cardinals at Arizona, the Cardinals at the Raiders,
Speaker 3: Cincinnati at Dallas, Chicago at Green Bay, and Miami at Baltimore.
Speaker 3: We'll give you our five picks and have our first
Speaker 3: winning week of the year. Next Almo's Right.
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Speaker 3: All right, welcome back in What's Right with Nick Great
Speaker 3: Episode number sixty nine at Week two NFL Gambling Show.
Speaker 3: So here are five picks. We've told you the five games.
Speaker 3: Let's start with the first one. Demonsee, what's the first game?
Speaker 3: And I'll give you my analysis. These are the five
Speaker 3: picks we are making. We are betting. We are two
Speaker 3: and three on the year. We are one to zero
Speaker 3: in the locks, we are undefeated, Soil and Survivor what
Speaker 3: is our first what's the first game?
Speaker 2: Minnesota is two point underdogs in Philadelphia. Love love Minnesota
Speaker 2: plus two. So here's the rationale. Philadelphia was very impressive offensively.
Speaker 3: In Week one. Defensively, real question marks. Letting de Troit
Speaker 3: pushed them around the way they did lot scores, Letting
Speaker 3: Detroit score thirty five points. Minnesota, on the other hand,
Speaker 3: I think can play offensively better than they did in
Speaker 3: Week two. In Week one, it was really just justin Jefferson.
Speaker 3: Dalvin Cook might be able to run all over Philadelphia.
Speaker 3: It is the I don't you know. One of the
Speaker 3: weaknesses of doing this on Thursdays is we don't have
Speaker 3: the weather yet, a real good weather forecast for this game, however,
Speaker 3: and this is a Monday night game, if I'm not mistaken,
Speaker 3: so we certainly don't have it. This is a Monday
Speaker 3: night game, correct, Yeah, it's the late Monday night game
Speaker 3: this weekend. Or but assuming there's not a weather disaster,
Speaker 3: I think Minnesota's going to score twenty eight thirty one points.
Speaker 3: I don't think Minnesota has as good of a defense
Speaker 3: as it looked like in Week one against Green Bay,
Speaker 3: but they have a far better defense than Detroit. Detroit's defense,
Speaker 3: this is a mess. I as good as Philly looked,
Speaker 3: I was still left that game relatively unimpressed with Jalen
Speaker 3: Hurt's ability throw the football. So he's gonna get out
Speaker 3: and have some scrambles and AJ Brown's gonna get his yards.
Speaker 3: But aside from AJ Brown, there wasn't much there. And
Speaker 3: so I think Minnesota wins this game out right. I
Speaker 3: think this is a bad matchup for Philly. I think
Speaker 3: Philly also, I It's weird to say this this early
Speaker 3: in the year, but I don't think they necessarily have
Speaker 3: a huge amount of urgency right now because of the
Speaker 3: Dak Prescott injury. I think Philadelphia. You know, they got
Speaker 3: some great news this week, which is that Dallas this
Speaker 3: season essentially ended. And I know Washington the Commanders won,
Speaker 3: but Philly knows this is their division to be had,
Speaker 3: even if they lose this game. I think Minnesota. I
Speaker 3: would I would take Minnesota straight up. I'm certainly taking
Speaker 3: them plus two points. I like this is my probably
Speaker 3: my second favorite bet of the weekend is Minnesota plus two.
Speaker 3: What's next?
Speaker 2: Okay? Arizona is five and a half point road dogs
Speaker 2: and against Las Vegas or in Las.
Speaker 3: Vegas, Arizona plus the points. This to me is a
Speaker 3: no brainer. I'd like it at six. If you are
Speaker 3: going to bet this, wait because if the line moves
Speaker 3: against you and it goes down to five, that doesn't
Speaker 3: cost you anything. There between five and five and a half,
Speaker 3: it's almost negligible. There between five and a half and
Speaker 3: six matters. So wait and see if it moves up
Speaker 3: to six and then make the bet. But at five,
Speaker 3: even at five and a half, I liked a lot.
Speaker 3: So why so Arizona right now? While you know I
Speaker 3: wouldn't have on them going into the year. I don't
Speaker 3: think they're a playoff team. They are right now a
Speaker 3: little undervalued because the Chiefs embarrassed.
Speaker 2: M just got destroyed.
Speaker 3: They just got destroyed. And yes they're traveling, but the
Speaker 3: Phoenix to Las Vegas, they were at home and now
Speaker 3: they're going to short trip to Vegas. So the travel
Speaker 3: edge is negligible, if existing at all. And the Raiders,
Speaker 3: there's a listen. I'm not a Cliff Kingsbury guy. I'm
Speaker 3: not gonna say he has a coaching edge on anybody.
Speaker 3: But Josh McDaniel's first game with the Raiders wasn't exactly
Speaker 3: a clean operation, Derek Carr. I think career high, Titus
Speaker 3: Carey and interceptions, fumbled the ball late. There's there's a
Speaker 3: lot not to like about what you saw from the Raiders. Now,
Speaker 3: do I expect the Raiders to win the game? I do.
Speaker 3: Do I expect them to win the game by a touchdown?
Speaker 3: I don't. Do I think this is a this is
Speaker 3: a game that comes down to the fourth quarter. Absolutely.
Speaker 3: Do I think this is a game that has lead
Speaker 3: changes in the fourth quarter? Possibly? Do I think this
Speaker 3: is a most likely a three or a four point
Speaker 3: Raiders win. Yeah, So Arizona get it. Five and a
Speaker 3: half points is the right side of the bet Arizona.
Speaker 3: Arizona and the Raiders are somewhat equivalent teams, So this
Speaker 3: line probably should be the Raiders by three. It is
Speaker 3: the Raiders by five and a half, purely because Arizona
Speaker 3: looks so bad against the team that actually is the
Speaker 3: best team in football, the Chiefs. So you're getting two
Speaker 3: and a half three points of value there, Arizona plus
Speaker 3: the five and a half. Demons's looking at me, quizz
Speaker 3: you know, with a quizzical look. This is the tricky thing.
Speaker 3: Even if, like I say, you were like, wait, so
Speaker 3: you think the Raiders are gonna win, but you're picking
Speaker 3: the Cardinals. Those five and a half points are so
Speaker 3: valuable if there were If the Raiders win by one, two, three, four, five,
Speaker 3: I win the bet. And there are a lot of say,
Speaker 3: there's twenty one to twenty, twenty one, seventeen, twenty seven
Speaker 3: to twenty four, twenty eight to twenty four, a lot
Speaker 3: of the l twenty seven to twenty three. I think
Speaker 3: I said that one already. There's a lot of the
Speaker 3: likely range of outcome scores fall in that exact window.
Speaker 3: I like Arizona plus the points next.
Speaker 2: Okay, so excellently scrolled here, Yeah we got Cincinnati is
Speaker 2: favored by seven in Dallas.
Speaker 3: Yeah, listen, road underdogs you always gotta be careful, or
Speaker 3: road favorite j always gotta be careful. But I don't
Speaker 3: know why this line isn't ten and a half. It's
Speaker 3: Cincinnati's the play. Dallas right now is the worst offensive football.
Speaker 3: Cincinnati scored twenty points in regulation in a game where
Speaker 3: they turned the ball over five times, right they I
Speaker 3: understand they didn't deal well with TJ. Watt, And so
Speaker 3: you might be like I'm not gonna deal well with
Speaker 3: Michaeh Parsons. Maybe or maybe they will simply double team
Speaker 3: Michah Parsons every play of the game and say Dallas
Speaker 3: can't beat us. Otherwise.
Speaker 2: I actually want to put money in on this bet
Speaker 2: since I like this bet.
Speaker 3: Lot Cincinnati minus seven with Dallas starting Cooper Rush, worst
Speaker 3: quarterback in the league right now and the only offense
Speaker 3: they didn't score a toucho on Week one, and that
Speaker 3: was with Dak Prescott, Cincinnati is going to win this
Speaker 3: game by multiple scores.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and it is.
Speaker 3: I think there is an under reaction to how bad
Speaker 3: Cooper Rush is going to be. I think that people
Speaker 3: are not recognizing that Dallas, for all its wards, Dak
Speaker 3: Prescott's a good player and the offense still he couldn't
Speaker 3: deal with the bad offensive line and lack of receivers,
Speaker 3: with Gallup still hurt and Noah Muri Cooper this year,
Speaker 3: all of that now there's some Cooper Rush to do it.
Speaker 3: If they don't score a defensive touchdown. I do not
Speaker 3: see how Dallas gets more than fourteen points. So can
Speaker 3: Cincinnati get twenty one of they got twenty last week
Speaker 3: in a game with five turnovers against a better defense
Speaker 3: than Dallas is in Pittsburgh. So I don't love the
Speaker 3: five quarter component. I don't love backing team, especially teams
Speaker 3: that are traveling that just played a only an overtime game,
Speaker 3: but an overtime game that went down to the final moment.
Speaker 3: It's basically playing a five quarter game. I don't love that. Flipside.
Speaker 3: Dallas played Sunday night, so the rest is almost negligible.
Speaker 3: I think Cincinnati blows him out. Yeah, I am. I
Speaker 3: think that this is a Dallas is staring one in
Speaker 3: five in the face. Cooper Rush was an undrafted two
Speaker 3: star player who has one career start. That offensive line
Speaker 3: is banged up. Cincinnati minus seven. It goes against a
Speaker 3: lot of the rules road favorites of that much, but
Speaker 3: I love it anyway, Cincinnati, My sevens will played next,
Speaker 3: all right?
Speaker 2: Green Bay is favored by ten at home against Chicago.
Speaker 3: Okay, this is this is the week that Rogers reminds
Speaker 3: everybody when things are going well. He looks as good
Speaker 3: as any player in league history.
Speaker 2: So you think last week was a fluke, I.
Speaker 3: Don't think it was a fluke. I think I think
Speaker 3: there were some issue shoes last week. That show you
Speaker 3: why when things get a little harried in the playoffs,
Speaker 3: Rogers hasn't come through. I think is the way he
Speaker 3: abandoned the rookie wide receiver. I think there were I
Speaker 3: think there were some parts of that game that are
Speaker 3: concerning long term for the Packers, but not this week.
Speaker 3: Pardon me. Against the against the Bears, Justin every Justin
Speaker 3: Fields completed eight passes. I know it was in a month.
Speaker 3: Soon green Bay blows out Chicago. That's what they do.
Speaker 3: Chicago goes to Green Bay and they get their asses kicked.
Speaker 3: And I think Rogers, coming off an awful game, is
Speaker 3: going to try to run it up.
Speaker 2: Probably sent his receivers to training camp over the weekend.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean this feels this honestly feels like thirty
Speaker 3: one to seven, thirty one, ten, twenty eight to thirteen,
Speaker 3: maybe like green Bay. Laying ten points is usually not
Speaker 3: the sharp side. But green Bay, Chicago goes to Green Bay,
Speaker 3: Chicago leaves getting blown out. That's what happens. The Bears
Speaker 3: have sixty million dollars of dead money, they don't even
Speaker 3: have a full roster. The offensive line stinks, the receivers stink.
Speaker 3: The Packers are blowing them out. Next and last one.
Speaker 2: Oh we got Baltimore is favored by three and a
Speaker 2: half at home against Miami.
Speaker 3: This is an insane line, utterly insane. They're three and
Speaker 3: a half point. When I first saw this line, I
Speaker 3: thought Baltimore was on the road. I was like, Oh, okay,
Speaker 3: that makes sense, Baltimore being just a three and a
Speaker 3: half point. I understand Ronnie Stanley's dinged up. The offensive
Speaker 3: line is singed up. I get it. But Vegas or
Speaker 3: the general public has not caught up to how good
Speaker 3: Baltimore is. They or they're way over value with Miami.
Speaker 2: I'm sorry we're hyping up the Patriots a little bit
Speaker 2: too much, but I don't think anybody's hypening No.
Speaker 3: They're way over yeah right, they're overvaluing Miami's win against
Speaker 3: the Patriots, which by the way, was not overly impressive.
Speaker 3: They I mean they went by two scores, one of
Speaker 3: the scores on a fumble six the stripsack touchdown. Baltimore
Speaker 3: is a great team, particularly in the regular season. Baltimore
Speaker 3: should be at least six point favorites at home against
Speaker 3: everyone in football, but like five teams to only be
Speaker 3: three and a half point favorites. I'm gonna keep riding
Speaker 3: Baltimore until the market catches up to how good they are.
Speaker 3: So Baltimore minus three and a half I would I
Speaker 3: would include this at Baltimore minus six and a half.
Speaker 3: I love the Ravens this week, so they are the five.
Speaker 3: I don't even know. I could give more analysis on it,
Speaker 3: but Miami's not that good. Baltimore just had an easy victory.
Speaker 3: Lamar looked great throwing the football. The adjustment for Miami
Speaker 3: Stevens going from Mac Jones that they're playing to Lamar R.
Speaker 3: Jackson is startling. So Baltimore minus three and a half,
Speaker 3: Cincinnati minus seven, Green Bay minus ten, Arizona plus five
Speaker 3: and a half, Minnesota plus two. Those are the five
Speaker 3: picks of the week. Take quick break, come back, give
Speaker 3: you the lock, tell you if we have any teasers
Speaker 3: or parlays for the week, give you our survivor pick
Speaker 3: of the week, and Demonsey's gotten offer for me. That's
Speaker 3: all next as we wrap up the show. All right,
Speaker 3: welcome back. In final segment, I just gave you my
Speaker 3: five picks of the week. If you're just joining us,
Speaker 3: which I don't think that actually ever happens. In podcasts.
Speaker 3: But I don't think anyone's like, oh, I'm just gonna
Speaker 3: skip to the end. I think listening throughout. But the
Speaker 3: five picks are Minnesota plus two, Arizona plus five and
Speaker 3: a half, Cincinnati minus seven, Green Baby Mint ten in
Speaker 3: Baltimore minus three and a half. Last week, the lock
Speaker 3: was Baltimore. This week, the lock is Baltimore. We're gonna
Speaker 3: call it the right move. Evidently that's my lock. I
Speaker 3: don't know why we're still using that picture of me.
Speaker 3: I'm overweight and bald, but that's fine, doesn't matter. Demand
Speaker 3: looks great, I look terrible. That's fine, don't worry about it. Uh, Listen,
Speaker 3: the public in Vegas aren't properly pricing the Ravens, and
Speaker 3: we're going to hammer them until they do. We are
Speaker 3: this is you. There is right now at a little
Speaker 3: area of value, and it's surrounding the greater DMV area
Speaker 3: of the country, and we are we are swirling it.
Speaker 3: We're swirling around it, we're circling it, and we're we're
Speaker 3: seizing the advantage. We're taking the opportunity. Baltimore minus three
Speaker 3: and a half. You listen. I was asked if this
Speaker 3: week if we have any teasers or exotics or parlays.
Speaker 3: I don't. But what I would tell you is, and
Speaker 3: I'll look at it real quick. I am interested in
Speaker 3: an alternate line on Baltimore. Let me go ahead and
Speaker 3: click here more wagers alternate spread right now, Baltimore minus
Speaker 3: six and a half is plus one thirty four. Or
Speaker 3: you can get Baltimore minus three and a half at
Speaker 3: minus one ten. That's probably not enough value. You want
Speaker 3: to get real crazy Baltimore minus nine and a half
Speaker 3: at plus two hundred. I don't hate that one, Okay,
Speaker 3: I don't hate that one, but I'm just gonna I'm
Speaker 3: not doing it this week. Once again, again we're staying disciplined.
Speaker 3: We got no teasers or parlays this week. We will
Speaker 3: at some point to this week. We have no teasers
Speaker 3: or parlays. We do have a survivor pick for you.
Speaker 3: Last week, the survivor pick was Baltimore. This week, the
Speaker 3: survivor pick is green Bay. Might say you're gonna use
Speaker 3: the Green Bay this early, We are gonna use green
Speaker 3: Bay this early. There's not a game on their schedule
Speaker 3: that is going to be easier than their home game
Speaker 3: against the Bears. Coming off a loss survive and Advancing Survivor.
Speaker 3: Green Bay's our survivor pick this week, Demanse, you look
Speaker 3: like you're plotting something for me. You have an offer
Speaker 3: for me, my friend.
Speaker 2: Do my hands like this when I'm giving an offer?
Speaker 3: Okay, go ahead, all right?
Speaker 2: So all seven point underdogs to win outright?
Speaker 3: This picture is so funny, it's really good.
Speaker 2: The Atlanta Falcons, Seattle Seahawks, Houston Texans, Chicago Bears, Tennessee Titans,
Speaker 2: and Dallas Cowboys will all win this.
Speaker 3: What is one hundred dollars? Bet?
Speaker 2: Pay one hundred dollars pace three hundred and fifty five
Speaker 2: thousand on Fox. Bet they're about.
Speaker 3: Okay, So one hundred hundred fifty, three hundred and fifty.
Speaker 2: The real numbers three hundred and fifty four thousand, three
Speaker 2: hundred and seventy three. But we're calling two hundred. Do
Speaker 2: you have taking it?
Speaker 3: Do you have a lighter on you?
Speaker 2: I don't?
Speaker 3: You don't good for you? I was just gonna say,
Speaker 3: like we could just light one hundred dollars on fire?
Speaker 3: Would that give you more enjoyment? Bet? I've ever heard
Speaker 3: of my line? Who's coming up with these? Can I
Speaker 3: give you the alternate version of that if you bet now.
Speaker 3: I don't recommend this bet either, but it's certainly better
Speaker 3: than what this dufe is just suggested. All six touchdown
Speaker 3: favorites just to win parlay that. So the Rams, Niners, Broncos, Packers, Bills,
Speaker 3: Bengals all to win. That's plus two point fifty. Okay,
Speaker 3: so that's one hundred bucks to win two hundred and
Speaker 3: fifty dollars. Now, I don't think there's enough value. You're
Speaker 3: only getting two and a half to one on a
Speaker 3: six event, you know, six uncorrelated event thing, but that
Speaker 3: actually has a decent chance coming through. My guess is
Speaker 3: one team up. You know, there's one team that upsets
Speaker 3: somebody in that so I wouldn't bet it. But the
Speaker 3: idea that we are going to have Marcus Mariota go
Speaker 3: on the road and beat Matt Stafford in the Rams,
Speaker 3: Gino Smith go on the road and beat the forty
Speaker 3: nine ers, Dave Mills go on the road to Mile
Speaker 3: High and beat mister Quite Limited, Russell Wilson Limited, Justin
Speaker 3: Fields go on the road and beat Aaron Rodgers, Ryan
Speaker 3: Tannehill go on the road and beat Josh Allen and
Speaker 3: final piece Cooper Rush to beat the Bengals and have
Speaker 3: the Bengals drop to zero and two. It is an impossibility.
Speaker 2: That's thee I want in there. That I've really got
Speaker 2: doubts on the other ones.
Speaker 3: The other ones are not happening. Buddy, all right, you
Speaker 3: want this guy. It's just unbelievable that I just want to.
Speaker 2: I will be betting again this, This Dallas Cowboys bet
Speaker 2: will be my first ever bet.
Speaker 3: Your first ever NFL bet.
Speaker 2: Yes, I've never made a bet on the NFL.
Speaker 3: Okay, you're in there, so Dallas minus seven. So let
Speaker 3: me tell you something. Oh, I mean sorry seven bed
Speaker 3: uh yeah, and you gotta get it in that.
Speaker 2: Listen for that number line changes.
Speaker 3: You don't want to be seven and a half. There's
Speaker 3: big d Enters seven and seven and a half. And
Speaker 3: my guess is that thing is gonna start moving by kickoff.
Speaker 3: It might be eight and a half. People, nobody's betting
Speaker 3: the Cowboys there, I'll tell you that much. You might
Speaker 3: say nicks, and then isn't that a stay away or
Speaker 3: a be careful? No man, not not with Cooper rushes both.
Speaker 3: There are certain times in the NFL where you only
Speaker 3: have a singular opportunity to fade a quarterback. This might
Speaker 3: be Cooper Rush's open grand opening grand clothes. We might
Speaker 3: not see him again, so we're gonna take advantage of it.
Speaker 3: All right, great gambling show. Good luck to everyone. Gamble responsibly.
Speaker 3: We'll talk to you guys on Monday. Hey, thanks for
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