WEBVTT - Week 2 NFL Bets: Nick’s 5 Picks 0:00:00.440 --> 0:00:02.800 If your football team had one option in their playbook, 0:00:03.000 --> 0:00:05.800 the results probably wouldn't be great. The same could be 0:00:05.840 --> 0:00:09.440 said for your investments. CIBO index options like SPX and 0:00:09.600 --> 0:00:12.920 xsp can help expand your investing strategies with cash settlement 0:00:13.080 --> 0:00:15.840 and potential tax advantages. If you're ready for a more 0:00:15.920 --> 0:00:19.120 dynamic game plan, head to Better with Options dot Com. 0:00:19.280 --> 0:00:22.880 Cebo life is better with options, Your investments. 0:00:22.440 --> 0:00:23.119 Could be too. 0:00:23.520 --> 0:00:26.159 There are risks associated with CBO company products. Review the 0:00:26.160 --> 0:00:40.680 disclosures and disclaimers at CBO dot com. Slash us underscore disclaimers. 0:00:42.280 --> 0:00:43.960 Welcome in. It is What's Right with Nick Right the 0:00:44.000 --> 0:00:48.000 podcast and YouTube show. It is episode sixty nine. It 0:00:48.080 --> 0:00:51.280 is at Work, Week two NFL Gambling Show. Before we 0:00:51.280 --> 0:00:53.720 get into what we did in week one, little parameters. 0:00:53.720 --> 0:00:55.080 If you're new to it, if you didn't listen to 0:00:55.120 --> 0:00:58.040 week one, we break We don't necessarily break down, but 0:00:58.080 --> 0:01:01.080 we at least touch on all sixteen games. We put 0:01:01.120 --> 0:01:05.080 them into four different categories. Stay away, we'll explain that 0:01:05.120 --> 0:01:08.720 when we get there. Be careful. We'll explain that perfectly priced. 0:01:08.720 --> 0:01:12.960 That self explanatory. And then the fourth category is our picks. 0:01:13.200 --> 0:01:15.960 We do five picks every week. We give you one 0:01:16.000 --> 0:01:17.840 of those will be our lock of the week. We'll 0:01:17.840 --> 0:01:19.640 also give you a survivor pick at the end of 0:01:19.640 --> 0:01:21.960 the show, and we will keep track of how we're 0:01:21.959 --> 0:01:25.080 doing throughout the year. And my commitment to you is 0:01:25.120 --> 0:01:28.400 I will bet these games that I tell you myself 0:01:28.760 --> 0:01:33.080 each and every week. So last week started off terribly. 0:01:33.360 --> 0:01:36.319 This show came out on Friday. I talked all about 0:01:36.319 --> 0:01:37.880 why I thought the Rams shouldn't be two and a 0:01:37.880 --> 0:01:40.360 half point underdogs. They end up losing by twenty one 0:01:40.400 --> 0:01:44.160 points the rest of the weekend. Though, I'm proud of 0:01:44.200 --> 0:01:46.920 how we did, even though we only went two and 0:01:46.959 --> 0:01:48.320 two the rest of the week, which is two and 0:01:48.320 --> 0:01:51.600 three overall. So why am I happy with it? Carolina, 0:01:52.680 --> 0:01:54.960 when we did the show was minus one and a half. 0:01:55.160 --> 0:01:58.080 By kickoff, they were plus one and a half, so 0:01:58.160 --> 0:02:02.960 the line had moved against us, but in the direction 0:02:03.120 --> 0:02:05.920 that we were thinking on the bet. Caroline ends up 0:02:05.960 --> 0:02:09.560 losing at the gun on a fifty eight yard field goal. 0:02:09.960 --> 0:02:11.520 I don't think we were on the wrong side of 0:02:11.560 --> 0:02:15.000 that bet. Jacksonville, I know we weren't on the wrong 0:02:15.040 --> 0:02:19.240 side of that bet. They dropped two touchdown passes despite 0:02:19.280 --> 0:02:22.120 all that they had a lead. We had them catching 0:02:22.120 --> 0:02:24.320 two and a half points. They had a lead, a 0:02:24.360 --> 0:02:27.720 two point lead, by the way, with a minute remaining, 0:02:28.160 --> 0:02:30.399 minute and a half remaining, and they let Carson Wentz 0:02:30.480 --> 0:02:32.240 drive the length of the field for a touchdown two 0:02:32.240 --> 0:02:34.800 point conversion. If they had just held into a field goal, 0:02:35.120 --> 0:02:38.800 we cover that one. And then obviously Miami covered by 0:02:38.880 --> 0:02:41.880 a million, Baltimore covered by a million. So we were 0:02:41.880 --> 0:02:44.600 two and three. But in my opinion, we were only 0:02:44.680 --> 0:02:48.560 truly off, way off on one game. We got a 0:02:48.560 --> 0:02:51.600 little unlucky on the Jags game. Even if the Carolina 0:02:51.600 --> 0:02:52.919 and Cleveland, I don't think we got on lucky, but 0:02:52.960 --> 0:02:54.360 I don't think we're on the wrong side of it, 0:02:54.440 --> 0:02:57.320 So I'm happy with it. Two and three is not great, 0:02:57.400 --> 0:03:00.560 but it's obviously not a disaster, and I'm I'm fine 0:03:00.600 --> 0:03:02.360 with how we did. We can deal with two in 0:03:02.400 --> 0:03:04.320 three weeks. What we can't deal with is one in 0:03:04.400 --> 0:03:07.440 four weeks, and we certainly can't deal with only five weeks. 0:03:07.600 --> 0:03:11.480 So the five games will be picking today are the following. 0:03:11.480 --> 0:03:13.480 I'm not going to tell you which side of these yet, 0:03:13.639 --> 0:03:16.840 but the five games we're picking is Miami at Baltimore, 0:03:17.120 --> 0:03:21.400 Cincinnati at Dallas, Arizona at the Raiders, Chicago at Green Bay, 0:03:21.520 --> 0:03:25.320 and Minnesota at Philly. Those will be our five picks. 0:03:25.480 --> 0:03:29.040 So what about the other eleven games? They're in three 0:03:29.120 --> 0:03:32.000 different categories. We start with the stay aways, and I 0:03:32.040 --> 0:03:34.440 explained give you a little analysis on the games and 0:03:34.520 --> 0:03:36.960 why they are where they are. Demons. What's the first 0:03:37.000 --> 0:03:37.520 stay away? 0:03:37.600 --> 0:03:40.560 First stay away is Browns favored by six points at 0:03:40.560 --> 0:03:41.720 home against the Jets. 0:03:41.840 --> 0:03:45.920 Okay, there's two games in this category that are stay 0:03:45.920 --> 0:03:51.120 aways for multiple reasons, the first of which being you 0:03:51.160 --> 0:03:54.080 don't want to watch this game. This is a disease 0:03:54.120 --> 0:03:57.720 if you wait all year when we start the clock 0:03:58.280 --> 0:04:04.040 for Sunday football. Unless you have a huge lean on 0:04:04.120 --> 0:04:10.880 a game as awful as Joe Flacco against against Jacoby Brissett, 0:04:11.280 --> 0:04:15.360 I have no idea why you would ever want to bet, 0:04:16.480 --> 0:04:19.080 why you'd want to watch this game? Now, gambling wise, 0:04:19.120 --> 0:04:22.599 that's not sound. Gambling wise, you don't not bet something 0:04:22.640 --> 0:04:25.200 because you don't want to watch it. But for tie breakers, 0:04:25.440 --> 0:04:27.960 I'm fine with it. So now, also, why is this 0:04:28.000 --> 0:04:33.160 a stay away? Well, I said last week that we 0:04:33.160 --> 0:04:36.160 were going to bet against Joe Flacco every game the 0:04:36.200 --> 0:04:40.160 rest of his career. Okay, but in order to do that, 0:04:41.080 --> 0:04:47.000 I have to lay six points with Jacoby Brissett. I 0:04:47.000 --> 0:04:52.080 have to lay six points with Jacoby Brissett not interested. 0:04:52.480 --> 0:04:55.760 So because I'm certainly not backing Flacco, I'm certainly not 0:04:55.880 --> 0:04:59.200 laying nearly a touchdown with Jacoby Brissett. Flatly, stay away, 0:04:59.200 --> 0:05:00.240 all right? What's the next on. 0:05:00.720 --> 0:05:02.880 The next one? Is Detroit favored by one and a 0:05:02.920 --> 0:05:04.520 half at home against Washington? 0:05:04.680 --> 0:05:07.520 Okay, So the first reason this is in the stayway 0:05:07.600 --> 0:05:10.599 category is the same reason Jet's Cleveland is you don't 0:05:10.600 --> 0:05:13.760 want to watch this awful football game. The second reason 0:05:13.800 --> 0:05:18.239 this is in the stayweay category is I don't really 0:05:18.360 --> 0:05:21.600 know what I was seeing week one with either team. 0:05:22.400 --> 0:05:26.520 So we know what Carson Wentzy is. He's going to 0:05:26.520 --> 0:05:29.000 make the occasional great play like he did in Week one, 0:05:29.320 --> 0:05:32.359 and make the occasional disastrous play like he did a 0:05:32.360 --> 0:05:36.200 couple times in Week one. We know that. But is 0:05:36.400 --> 0:05:41.159 Washington better than I expected? Or are the Jaguars worse 0:05:41.240 --> 0:05:43.839 than I thought they'd be, or was it just kind 0:05:43.839 --> 0:05:47.039 of week one, new coach in Jacksonville, some bad luck. 0:05:47.160 --> 0:05:52.680 I don't know. Detroit, on the other hand, is their 0:05:52.720 --> 0:05:56.279 defense that awful? But On the flip side, is their 0:05:56.520 --> 0:06:01.520 offense that potent, is their offensive line that good? Or 0:06:01.600 --> 0:06:05.400 is Phillys d line a little overrated? I just don't know. 0:06:05.800 --> 0:06:08.159 I just feel like there are so many unknowns here. 0:06:08.440 --> 0:06:11.120 Plus it's a gross game. I don't want to watch it. 0:06:11.240 --> 0:06:12.360 We're staying away from it. 0:06:12.400 --> 0:06:15.680 Next one, Niners favored by nine and a half at 0:06:15.720 --> 0:06:16.760 home against Seattle. 0:06:17.000 --> 0:06:21.320 Okay, so the Niners favored by nine. 0:06:21.200 --> 0:06:22.720 And a half, your super Bowl team. 0:06:23.200 --> 0:06:26.120 It's my super Bowl team. I believe they're going to 0:06:26.160 --> 0:06:28.919 get it right. Week one, it was in a monsoon, 0:06:29.640 --> 0:06:34.880 so a lot of stuff happening. I am certainly not 0:06:35.080 --> 0:06:42.479 going to back Seattle coming on a short week on 0:06:42.680 --> 0:06:48.320 the road, coming off that emotional win. However, as high 0:06:48.360 --> 0:06:52.279 as I am on San Francisco, I am not ready 0:06:52.320 --> 0:06:57.760 to lay two scores on Trey Lanx. I think he's 0:06:57.800 --> 0:06:59.600 going to be very good by the end of the year. 0:07:00.040 --> 0:07:03.599 But I'm not gonna lay nine and a half points 0:07:04.080 --> 0:07:06.680 on a guy who now was in the monsoon. They 0:07:06.720 --> 0:07:08.760 didn't have Kittle. I understand all of that, but in 0:07:08.800 --> 0:07:11.160 his one NFL start they scored ten points. I'm not 0:07:11.200 --> 0:07:13.640 gonna lay nine and a half. I'm also not gonna 0:07:13.680 --> 0:07:17.320 back Seattle, who might be as bad as people thought 0:07:17.320 --> 0:07:19.120 they were gonna be. They were not. They scored zero 0:07:19.200 --> 0:07:21.880 points the second half, and people are maybe slightly now 0:07:21.960 --> 0:07:25.440 overrating them a bit because they're overrating the Broncos, like, oh, 0:07:25.520 --> 0:07:28.239 they're betting so so to me, that is a vented 0:07:28.360 --> 0:07:31.440 stay away game. I'm not If I had to bet 0:07:31.440 --> 0:07:34.000 a side, I'd bet the Niners. But I don't want 0:07:34.000 --> 0:07:35.680 to lay nine and a half points with Trey Lance 0:07:35.760 --> 0:07:38.680 making his fifth start in the last three years. I don't. 0:07:38.720 --> 0:07:40.840 I'm not saying he's not that good, just too many 0:07:40.880 --> 0:07:42.880 points and I don't want to bet. Usually, if it's 0:07:42.880 --> 0:07:44.800 too many points, it means take the underdog. I don't 0:07:44.840 --> 0:07:47.080 want to back Seattle. It's a stay away if you've 0:07:47.080 --> 0:07:49.640 got to have discipline, demon's we gotta find the games 0:07:49.640 --> 0:07:51.720 we're staying away from so we can find the games 0:07:51.760 --> 0:07:53.560 we want to bet. It's not complicated. 0:07:53.640 --> 0:07:56.600 Next, all right, the Giants favored by two at home 0:07:56.680 --> 0:07:57.480 against the Panther. 0:07:57.640 --> 0:08:00.840 Here's the deal on that. My initially inclination was this 0:08:00.920 --> 0:08:04.760 was one of my picks. I had Carolina plus two 0:08:04.880 --> 0:08:09.480 is one of my picks, and then the little you know, 0:08:09.560 --> 0:08:14.960 one final review. I'm like, Nick, how much of this 0:08:15.480 --> 0:08:18.960 is you hoping your takes are right? Because that's a 0:08:19.000 --> 0:08:23.400 problem with me gambling Sometimes sometimes I bet my takes 0:08:24.080 --> 0:08:26.880 rather I bet with what I want to happen, because 0:08:26.880 --> 0:08:32.840 it makes my life easier on television rather than cojin analysis. 0:08:33.400 --> 0:08:36.720 And while Carolina looked good in the fourth quarter and 0:08:36.800 --> 0:08:40.640 Baker looked good in the fourth quarter, they looked horrifyingly 0:08:40.720 --> 0:08:44.600 bad on offense the first three quarters. I don't think 0:08:44.679 --> 0:08:47.400 the Giants are very good. I think people are. The 0:08:47.400 --> 0:08:49.800 Giants looked as bad offensively in the first half as 0:08:49.840 --> 0:08:53.840 Carolina did. And in a situation like this, two bad teams, 0:08:54.440 --> 0:08:57.400 you know, I think Baker's better than Daniel Jones that 0:08:58.120 --> 0:09:01.400 you usually would just say take the points. But it's 0:09:01.440 --> 0:09:03.280 not a lot of points. It's less than a field goal. 0:09:04.880 --> 0:09:08.400 I don't trust the Giants. I want to trust the Panthers, 0:09:08.880 --> 0:09:12.120 but I'm what I'm not gonna allow this. I'm not 0:09:12.160 --> 0:09:15.480 gonna allow that in the first two weeks of the season, 0:09:16.679 --> 0:09:19.880 two of my ten picks are on Baker Mayfield and 0:09:19.880 --> 0:09:22.880 the Carolina Panthers. They haven't earned that, So that's what 0:09:23.000 --> 0:09:25.640 it was initially. Carolina plus two was the bet and 0:09:25.679 --> 0:09:27.440 now it's a stay away. All right. What's the last 0:09:27.480 --> 0:09:28.320 one in the category? 0:09:28.600 --> 0:09:31.199 Last one is Indy three and a half point road 0:09:31.240 --> 0:09:32.840 favorites against the Jags. 0:09:33.040 --> 0:09:38.480 Okay. So I know what a lot of people are thinking, Nick. 0:09:38.520 --> 0:09:41.280 You like the Jags. Yeah, picked them to make the playoffs? 0:09:41.320 --> 0:09:43.080 Go ahead? Do you? I mean go ahead? 0:09:43.120 --> 0:09:44.840 You need them play out seven wins this season? 0:09:44.880 --> 0:09:45.839 Yeah? I bet the over them. 0:09:45.880 --> 0:09:48.280 They threw away a really easy game in Week one, 0:09:48.720 --> 0:09:51.319 so you know, no love for your Jags at home? 0:09:51.920 --> 0:09:54.840 Okay. And they play Indie well, they knocked Indy out 0:09:54.840 --> 0:09:56.719 of the playoffs last year in the final week of 0:09:56.800 --> 0:10:01.040 the season. Yeah, they are catching points at home. And 0:10:01.080 --> 0:10:03.199 while I am high on the Jags, I'm also very 0:10:03.240 --> 0:10:06.360 high on the Colts. If you remember, Yea and the 0:10:06.360 --> 0:10:10.440 Colts played terribly for three quarters, rallied and then in 0:10:10.520 --> 0:10:12.800 overtime took that you know, ended up getting a tie. 0:10:12.800 --> 0:10:14.920 They rallied in the fourth quarter, didn't play well in overtime. 0:10:16.320 --> 0:10:19.160 I I feel if I was going to take a 0:10:19.200 --> 0:10:21.480 side in this game, I would take the Jags. But 0:10:21.480 --> 0:10:24.280 it's to stay away for me for the same reason 0:10:24.480 --> 0:10:27.920 that the Panthers are. Am I going to the first 0:10:27.960 --> 0:10:31.559 two weeks of the season. Each week, use one of 0:10:31.559 --> 0:10:35.440 my five precious picks on a Jacksonville Jaguars team that 0:10:35.480 --> 0:10:38.640 has not earned the level of faith that I that 0:10:38.760 --> 0:10:40.360 I want to have in them. The answer is no, 0:10:41.440 --> 0:10:44.960 and so I think the smart side is Jacksonville plus 0:10:44.960 --> 0:10:47.320 three and a half. I think that is the smart side. 0:10:47.720 --> 0:10:50.920 But do I think it's in play that Jonathan Taylor 0:10:51.000 --> 0:10:52.640 runs rough shot all over them? 0:10:53.200 --> 0:10:53.920 Absolutely? 0:10:54.440 --> 0:10:57.959 And so do I also think that it's in play 0:10:58.000 --> 0:11:02.320 that Indy is act actually oddly the more desperate team, 0:11:02.440 --> 0:11:04.400 even though they got a tie in Week one and 0:11:04.520 --> 0:11:08.320 Jacksonville had a close loss, because Indy has real not 0:11:08.360 --> 0:11:11.559 only playoffs, but maybe you know, division championship aspirations, the 0:11:11.600 --> 0:11:15.760 Jacksonably don't have. I do. So my lean is Jacksonville 0:11:15.760 --> 0:11:17.880 plus three and a half. It is not strong enough, 0:11:17.880 --> 0:11:19.959 given that they bit me last week, and they should 0:11:19.960 --> 0:11:22.079 have covered that game, should have won that game out right. 0:11:22.120 --> 0:11:25.080 That sucked. I'm staying away from it all right, there's 0:11:25.120 --> 0:11:28.440 the full stayaways. Now we're to the be carefuls. What's first? 0:11:28.760 --> 0:11:31.480 Be careful? We got the Steelers are two point home 0:11:31.559 --> 0:11:32.880 underdogs to the Patriots. 0:11:32.920 --> 0:11:36.240 Okay, this is a vintage. Be careful, and let me 0:11:36.280 --> 0:11:38.120 tell you why this is a vintage. 0:11:38.160 --> 0:11:38.760 Be careful. 0:11:39.520 --> 0:11:43.880 I'm gonna read from our What's right group chat yesterday 0:11:44.800 --> 0:11:51.240 or in the evening. Okay, what we have? Okay? So yeah, 0:11:51.400 --> 0:11:56.040 Mac Jones a road favorite. You said that. I also 0:11:56.240 --> 0:11:59.600 got this from. Let me find it real quick from 0:11:59.720 --> 0:12:05.040 your How the bleep are the Steelers underdogs at home 0:12:05.400 --> 0:12:09.640 to the Patriots. Matt then chimed in injured Mac Jones 0:12:09.920 --> 0:12:12.880 victin again. They could play the Patriots offense with ten 0:12:12.920 --> 0:12:15.960 minute on the field and I'd still pick them to win. 0:12:18.600 --> 0:12:23.000 This is why we created the be careful category. No 0:12:23.120 --> 0:12:27.600 disrespect to Victor, no disrespect to Matt. They're not what 0:12:27.640 --> 0:12:32.480 I would call sharp betters. And the whole football world 0:12:32.600 --> 0:12:35.880 saw how awful New England looked in week one. They 0:12:35.920 --> 0:12:39.520 saw Pittsburgh beat Cincinnati in Week one, and they're like, 0:12:40.080 --> 0:12:44.960 Pittsburgh's at home and they're getting points. Oh my god, 0:12:45.120 --> 0:12:49.360 Vegas is made a mistake. Oh my goodness, gracious, how 0:12:49.400 --> 0:12:51.839 could this happen? And then I'll tell you what's gonna happen. 0:12:52.800 --> 0:12:56.960 It's gonna be Sunday around three thirty pm Eastern, and 0:12:57.080 --> 0:13:01.680 Mitch Trubisky is gonna have had two turn and betrailing 0:13:02.920 --> 0:13:07.240 six points midway through the fourth quarter, and Matt and 0:13:07.320 --> 0:13:12.240 Vick are gonna be saying, I don't I'm down a 0:13:12.280 --> 0:13:15.880 touchdown and I think I'm drawing dead here. I don't 0:13:15.920 --> 0:13:18.840 think I have put all my faith in Mitch Trubisky. 0:13:19.559 --> 0:13:24.640 A Steelers team that forced five Joe Burrow turnovers and 0:13:24.760 --> 0:13:28.319 still needed a miss extra a blocked extra point, a 0:13:28.360 --> 0:13:31.720 bad snap, and a miss thirty yard field goal to win. 0:13:32.400 --> 0:13:34.520 With their own fifty yard field goal at the gun, 0:13:34.880 --> 0:13:38.360 they needed five turnovers, a blocked extra point, a missed 0:13:38.360 --> 0:13:41.360 field goal to escape in the final play of overtime. 0:13:41.720 --> 0:13:44.520 Also a Steelers team, and while the Patriots got their 0:13:44.559 --> 0:13:48.800 ass kicked on Sunday, at least that game didn't go 0:13:48.880 --> 0:13:53.040 five quarters. The Steelers game went five quarters. So you 0:13:53.120 --> 0:13:54.559 might say, Nick, with all this, why are you're not 0:13:54.640 --> 0:13:56.959 including the Patriots and your picks. So I'll be damned 0:13:56.960 --> 0:13:59.120 if I'm betting Mac Jones as a road favorite. I'm 0:13:59.160 --> 0:14:01.680 not doing that either. I'm been telling you guys, be 0:14:02.040 --> 0:14:05.120 careful out there, kids, Be careful, all right? 0:14:05.200 --> 0:14:08.400 Next a lot of sense. Denver is ten point favorites 0:14:08.440 --> 0:14:10.000 at home against the Texans. 0:14:10.360 --> 0:14:12.720 All right, I challenge you to find one person in 0:14:12.760 --> 0:14:16.880 America that's bet in the Texans. I challenge you and 0:14:16.920 --> 0:14:21.760 that to be careful. If everyone in the world is 0:14:21.800 --> 0:14:27.160 going to be on Denver, which they will, because oh 0:14:27.240 --> 0:14:29.680 they have to win. It's a bounce back. They're going 0:14:29.720 --> 0:14:32.880 to be in all these teasers, be careful. Nobody likes 0:14:32.920 --> 0:14:36.760 the Texans. The Texans melted down. They also played a 0:14:36.800 --> 0:14:39.320 five quarter game. They're gonna say, oh, Russ has something 0:14:39.320 --> 0:14:40.840 to prove and all that, and he very well might 0:14:40.840 --> 0:14:46.640 do it. Be careful doesn't mean necessarily that I have 0:14:46.640 --> 0:14:48.720 a strong inclination on one side of the bed. It 0:14:48.880 --> 0:14:57.440 simply means I know that the gambling public loves Denver, 0:14:57.920 --> 0:15:01.560 and if the gambling public loves it, I'm skeptical of it. 0:15:01.800 --> 0:15:04.080 Do I think Denver probably kicks the Texans? Ass? I do, 0:15:04.640 --> 0:15:07.560 but I be careful out their kids. No one's betting 0:15:07.560 --> 0:15:10.160 the Texans this week. It's always a dangerous spot. When 0:15:10.200 --> 0:15:12.640 you're getting ready for Sunday football. You put your bets 0:15:12.640 --> 0:15:15.760 in your scrolling Twitter and you see Chad Millman tweet 0:15:16.120 --> 0:15:19.640 eighty eight percent of the Action Networks handle is on 0:15:19.800 --> 0:15:22.360 Denver minus ten you're like, oh boy, I'm in that 0:15:22.440 --> 0:15:23.720 eighty eight percent. All right. 0:15:23.760 --> 0:15:27.640 Next, Oh, Buffalo is ten point home favorites against the Titans. 0:15:27.760 --> 0:15:30.720 Every single thing I just said about Houston Denver applies 0:15:30.760 --> 0:15:35.200 to Tennessee Buffalo. Everyone's on the Bills. Every single person 0:15:35.280 --> 0:15:39.040 thinks the Bills are a juggernaut. The Titans embarrass themselves 0:15:39.080 --> 0:15:41.560 this week. It's at home, the Bills have an extra 0:15:41.600 --> 0:15:44.280 four days of rest, It's on Monday, so they even 0:15:44.320 --> 0:15:47.400 have They basically have a full almost a full bye 0:15:47.400 --> 0:15:51.920 week between games. All of these reasons. Again, I'm not 0:15:51.960 --> 0:15:53.880 saying they're not gonna blow them out. What I am 0:15:53.960 --> 0:15:56.880 saying is no one is betting Tennessee and the only 0:15:56.920 --> 0:15:59.800 people who are betting Tennessee are the sharps. Now, I'm 0:15:59.840 --> 0:16:03.800 not good enough to to bet the Titans even getting 0:16:03.800 --> 0:16:06.480 ten points against Buffalo after how Buffalo looked on Thursday. 0:16:06.640 --> 0:16:11.120 But be careful, folks. There are three games that Vegas 0:16:11.240 --> 0:16:14.840 knows the public is gonna not have even actional Buffalo 0:16:14.920 --> 0:16:20.920 minus ten, Denver minus ten, and Pittsburgh plus two. Be careful, 0:16:21.200 --> 0:16:23.000 all right, Now to the perfectly priced. 0:16:22.800 --> 0:16:26.960 Perfectly priced Chiefs are four point favorites at home against 0:16:27.000 --> 0:16:27.920 the Chargers. 0:16:27.720 --> 0:16:29.200 R this game will have already happened by the time 0:16:29.200 --> 0:16:33.000 you see this show. I think that's just right. You 0:16:33.120 --> 0:16:35.800 might say, Nick, you think the Chargers are almost price, Yeah, 0:16:35.920 --> 0:16:36.560 what's your prod? 0:16:37.120 --> 0:16:40.440 Chief said, four point favorites is perfectly priced. Yeah. So, 0:16:40.560 --> 0:16:42.200 or if they were six point favorites, you would have 0:16:42.240 --> 0:16:44.000 taken the Chargers, your beloved Chiefs. 0:16:44.280 --> 0:16:48.120 Well. I don't bet against the Chiefs. Okay, gambling, I 0:16:48.120 --> 0:16:50.760 don't bet against the Chiefs, but it doesn't mean I 0:16:50.760 --> 0:16:53.400 always bet on them. The Chiefs at minus six, I 0:16:53.400 --> 0:16:56.680 would say the smart side is the Chargers. And here's 0:16:56.720 --> 0:17:00.720 why the Chiefs don't have their kicker. I understand the 0:17:00.800 --> 0:17:02.960 Chargers don't have Keenan Allen, but the Chiefs don't have 0:17:03.040 --> 0:17:07.679 McDuffie their first round rookie corner. But more importantly, the 0:17:07.800 --> 0:17:10.560 Chargers have played the Chiefs incredibly close over the last 0:17:10.600 --> 0:17:13.680 few years. The Chiefs won last year, they lost to 0:17:13.720 --> 0:17:15.720 them once and beat them the other time in overtime. 0:17:16.359 --> 0:17:20.879 They play them well, and so I think the Chiefs 0:17:21.160 --> 0:17:26.760 are a deserved to be greater than four point favorites 0:17:26.800 --> 0:17:33.120 at home against every team in the league except the Chargers. 0:17:33.720 --> 0:17:36.000 I'm not saying the Chargers the second best team in football. 0:17:36.119 --> 0:17:38.639 I'm saying the Chargers play the Chiefs better than anybody. 0:17:38.800 --> 0:17:41.240 They are built to play the Chiefs. They've built that 0:17:41.280 --> 0:17:43.600 team smartly with the Chiefs in mind. I think Chiefs 0:17:43.640 --> 0:17:45.080 minds four is a perfect line. All right? 0:17:45.119 --> 0:17:48.240 Next, all right, well that makes sense. The Bucks are 0:17:48.280 --> 0:17:50.800 two and at you got it? Yeah, the Bucks are 0:17:50.800 --> 0:17:52.600 two and a half point favorites on the road in 0:17:52.680 --> 0:17:53.720 New Orleans. 0:17:54.040 --> 0:17:56.760 All right, I think this line's exactly right. I think 0:17:56.840 --> 0:18:00.880 that New Orleans has played the Bucks credibly tough since 0:18:00.880 --> 0:18:02.840 Brady's gotten there. I understand that they won three out 0:18:02.880 --> 0:18:06.240 of four. I also know that that you know, some 0:18:06.280 --> 0:18:08.119 of those came with Drew Brees. They all came with 0:18:08.160 --> 0:18:12.159 Sean Payton. And New Orleans didn't look great this weekend, 0:18:12.800 --> 0:18:15.320 but you don't want to if it were New Orleans 0:18:15.359 --> 0:18:19.280 plus three, that's an obvious New Orleans bet at three 0:18:19.400 --> 0:18:22.080 three and a half, certainly at two and a half. 0:18:22.600 --> 0:18:24.399 I think the I think the odds makers got this 0:18:24.480 --> 0:18:28.880 exactly right. It's I don't I what do I expect? 0:18:28.880 --> 0:18:31.840 I expect the Bucks to win by about three points, 0:18:32.040 --> 0:18:33.639 and so I think that I think they got this 0:18:33.720 --> 0:18:37.439 exactly right. I don't think New Orleans is going to 0:18:38.119 --> 0:18:40.280 win the game, but I wouldn't be shocked if they did. 0:18:40.440 --> 0:18:42.800 I think the line's just right. We can move on next, 0:18:43.080 --> 0:18:43.440 all right. 0:18:43.480 --> 0:18:45.399 The Rams are ten and a half point favorites at 0:18:45.440 --> 0:18:46.640 home against the Falcons. 0:18:46.760 --> 0:18:49.119 Yeah, that's exact. Again, I think it's exactly right. I 0:18:49.119 --> 0:18:52.240 think the Rams, with the extra rest after looking so 0:18:52.440 --> 0:18:55.040 terribly this past weekend, I think they are going to 0:18:55.080 --> 0:18:59.280 be up fourteen seventeen points throughout the majority of the 0:18:59.280 --> 0:19:03.600 second half. And there's the strong potential, as always with Atlanta, 0:19:03.840 --> 0:19:05.679 for a backdoor cover to come get you. You're up 0:19:05.680 --> 0:19:08.359 by seventeen, all of a sudden, the Falcon score a 0:19:08.400 --> 0:19:11.760 garbage time touchdown, Marcus Mariota runs it in. Now they're 0:19:11.840 --> 0:19:14.040 winning by ten game over year. Ten and a half 0:19:14.080 --> 0:19:16.280 doesn't cover. I think that's the exact right line. I 0:19:16.280 --> 0:19:18.800 expect the Rams to win easily, but I wouldn't bet 0:19:18.840 --> 0:19:21.200 either side of it. The five games I would bet 0:19:22.280 --> 0:19:25.320 are the Vikings at the Eagles, the Cardinals at Arizona, 0:19:25.320 --> 0:19:28.680 I'm sorry, the Cardinals at Arizona, the Cardinals at the Raiders, 0:19:28.680 --> 0:19:33.159 Cincinnati at Dallas, Chicago at Green Bay, and Miami at Baltimore. 0:19:33.480 --> 0:19:36.160 We'll give you our five picks and have our first 0:19:36.200 --> 0:19:39.160 winning week of the year. Next Almo's Right. 0:19:45.040 --> 0:19:47.800 This episode is brought to you by Unstoppable. Discover the 0:19:47.840 --> 0:19:51.200 inspiring true story about Anthony Roblasts, who defined every expectation 0:19:51.280 --> 0:19:54.159 to become a national wrestling champion, and Unstoppable, a new 0:19:54.200 --> 0:19:57.760 original movie from Amazon MGM Studios and director William Goldenberg, 0:19:57.880 --> 0:20:01.040 evoking the excitement and camaraderie of six sports dramas and 0:20:01.080 --> 0:20:04.480 thrilling wrestling matches. Unstoppable features an all star ensemble cast 0:20:04.560 --> 0:20:08.080 including Joel Jerome, Jennifer Lopez, Don Cheatle, Michael Pania, and 0:20:08.080 --> 0:20:12.320 Bobby Knavalli. Watch Unstoppable now exclusively on Amazon Prime Video. 0:20:13.640 --> 0:20:15.440 All right, welcome back in What's Right with Nick Great 0:20:15.440 --> 0:20:18.600 Episode number sixty nine at Week two NFL Gambling Show. 0:20:19.840 --> 0:20:22.320 So here are five picks. We've told you the five games. 0:20:22.400 --> 0:20:25.800 Let's start with the first one. Demonsee, what's the first game? 0:20:25.840 --> 0:20:27.720 And I'll give you my analysis. These are the five 0:20:27.800 --> 0:20:29.879 picks we are making. We are betting. We are two 0:20:29.920 --> 0:20:31.760 and three on the year. We are one to zero 0:20:31.760 --> 0:20:34.600 in the locks, we are undefeated, Soil and Survivor what 0:20:34.760 --> 0:20:36.480 is our first what's the first game? 0:20:37.080 --> 0:20:43.560 Minnesota is two point underdogs in Philadelphia. Love love Minnesota 0:20:43.560 --> 0:20:53.680 plus two. So here's the rationale. Philadelphia was very impressive offensively. 0:20:53.400 --> 0:21:00.399 In Week one. Defensively, real question marks. Letting de Troit 0:21:00.480 --> 0:21:03.160 pushed them around the way they did lot scores, Letting 0:21:03.240 --> 0:21:08.560 Detroit score thirty five points. Minnesota, on the other hand, 0:21:08.600 --> 0:21:12.000 I think can play offensively better than they did in 0:21:12.040 --> 0:21:15.359 Week two. In Week one, it was really just justin Jefferson. 0:21:15.800 --> 0:21:19.040 Dalvin Cook might be able to run all over Philadelphia. 0:21:19.880 --> 0:21:23.360 It is the I don't you know. One of the 0:21:23.400 --> 0:21:26.600 weaknesses of doing this on Thursdays is we don't have 0:21:26.640 --> 0:21:30.680 the weather yet, a real good weather forecast for this game, however, 0:21:30.800 --> 0:21:32.960 and this is a Monday night game, if I'm not mistaken, 0:21:33.760 --> 0:21:35.800 so we certainly don't have it. This is a Monday 0:21:35.880 --> 0:21:37.880 night game, correct, Yeah, it's the late Monday night game 0:21:38.160 --> 0:21:44.000 this weekend. Or but assuming there's not a weather disaster, 0:21:44.680 --> 0:21:49.960 I think Minnesota's going to score twenty eight thirty one points. 0:21:51.320 --> 0:21:53.840 I don't think Minnesota has as good of a defense 0:21:53.840 --> 0:21:55.960 as it looked like in Week one against Green Bay, 0:21:56.640 --> 0:21:59.960 but they have a far better defense than Detroit. Detroit's defense, 0:22:00.040 --> 0:22:04.840 this is a mess. I as good as Philly looked, 0:22:05.400 --> 0:22:09.919 I was still left that game relatively unimpressed with Jalen 0:22:09.960 --> 0:22:13.800 Hurt's ability throw the football. So he's gonna get out 0:22:13.840 --> 0:22:16.639