1 00:00:00,880 --> 00:00:04,320 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us 2 00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:07,560 Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the 3 00:00:07,640 --> 00:00:10,719 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business App, or listening on 4 00:00:10,800 --> 00:00:12,800 Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts. 5 00:00:13,320 --> 00:00:16,920 Speaker 2: Welcome to the Monday edition of Bloomberg Sound On. I'm 6 00:00:17,000 --> 00:00:18,360 Speaker 2: Joe Matthew in Washington. 7 00:00:18,400 --> 00:00:18,680 Speaker 3: We there. 8 00:00:18,680 --> 00:00:21,120 Speaker 2: It's still a sense of disbelief over what we saw 9 00:00:21,200 --> 00:00:23,880 Speaker 2: last weekend in Russia, and we're hearing now for the 10 00:00:23,920 --> 00:00:26,560 Speaker 2: first time from President Biden about all of this. Held 11 00:00:26,600 --> 00:00:29,600 Speaker 2: an event on infrastructure broadband earlier today in the East 12 00:00:29,640 --> 00:00:33,479 Speaker 2: Room of the White House. His message, don't look at me. 13 00:00:33,600 --> 00:00:35,320 Speaker 4: They agreed with me that we had to make sure 14 00:00:35,400 --> 00:00:38,920 Speaker 4: we gave putin no excuse. The emphasize, we gave putin 15 00:00:39,040 --> 00:00:42,160 Speaker 4: no excuse to blame this on the West, to blame 16 00:00:42,159 --> 00:00:46,520 Speaker 4: this on NATO. We made clear that we were not involved, 17 00:00:46,840 --> 00:00:49,040 Speaker 4: We had nothing to do with it. This was part 18 00:00:49,040 --> 00:00:53,040 Speaker 4: of a struggle within the Russian system. I also talked 19 00:00:53,040 --> 00:00:55,120 Speaker 4: at lanth of presidents and let's give Ukraine. We'll be 20 00:00:55,200 --> 00:00:57,920 Speaker 4: keeping in contacting them and may be peaking later today 21 00:00:58,000 --> 00:01:00,880 Speaker 4: early tomorrow morning to make sure we continue to remain 22 00:01:00,960 --> 00:01:04,280 Speaker 4: on the same page. I told him, no matter what 23 00:01:04,440 --> 00:01:07,319 Speaker 4: happened in Russia, we say it again, no matter what 24 00:01:07,400 --> 00:01:10,440 Speaker 4: happened in Russia, we the United States who continue to 25 00:01:10,440 --> 00:01:15,320 Speaker 4: support Ukraine's defense and its sovereignty and its territorial integrity. 26 00:01:15,280 --> 00:01:19,040 Speaker 2: Not just a short time ago, after being conspicuously quiet 27 00:01:19,040 --> 00:01:22,960 Speaker 2: over the weekend. And we're joined now by Nick Wadhams, 28 00:01:23,120 --> 00:01:26,440 Speaker 2: Bloomberg's national security reporter, who I'm sure when you left 29 00:01:26,480 --> 00:01:29,399 Speaker 2: here Friday, Nick, you couldn't have imagined what shape this 30 00:01:29,440 --> 00:01:32,640 Speaker 2: would take. We were hearing about this though late Friday, right, 31 00:01:33,000 --> 00:01:35,000 Speaker 2: and now, my gosh, after what we saw, I guess 32 00:01:35,040 --> 00:01:38,280 Speaker 2: I would ask you, first of all, this is over right, 33 00:01:38,360 --> 00:01:41,399 Speaker 2: members of the Wagner group, are I get apparently being 34 00:01:42,480 --> 00:01:46,000 Speaker 2: added somehow to the Russian military and mister progosion will 35 00:01:46,080 --> 00:01:49,280 Speaker 2: start cooking for people in Belarus. What's the fallout? 36 00:01:49,320 --> 00:01:52,000 Speaker 5: You know, it's a great question, and this is exactly 37 00:01:52,000 --> 00:01:53,800 Speaker 5: one of the things that Joe Biden said that they're 38 00:01:53,800 --> 00:01:56,280 Speaker 5: still assessing the consequences of this thing. I mean, the 39 00:01:56,320 --> 00:01:59,919 Speaker 5: big question is how weak is Vladimir Putin? 40 00:02:00,120 --> 00:02:00,400 Speaker 1: Now? 41 00:02:00,520 --> 00:02:04,920 Speaker 5: You know, for a leader who whose legitimacy and sense 42 00:02:04,960 --> 00:02:08,480 Speaker 5: of control rests almost entirely on the on the impression 43 00:02:08,639 --> 00:02:10,960 Speaker 5: of how much control he has over the military and 44 00:02:11,000 --> 00:02:12,840 Speaker 5: his own people. You know, something like this. I mean, 45 00:02:12,880 --> 00:02:16,520 Speaker 5: these fighters took over a city, Rostov on dawn in 46 00:02:16,960 --> 00:02:19,840 Speaker 5: southern Russia and then they marched to within two hundred 47 00:02:19,919 --> 00:02:23,240 Speaker 5: miles of Moscow. I mean, it's just crazy without a 48 00:02:23,280 --> 00:02:27,000 Speaker 5: real challenge, without any real challenge. And then so you know, 49 00:02:27,120 --> 00:02:31,120 Speaker 5: we there was a moment on Friday evening where, you know, 50 00:02:31,200 --> 00:02:33,760 Speaker 5: and then into the night where we thought, oh my god, 51 00:02:33,880 --> 00:02:38,440 Speaker 5: are we seeing an actual coup? What is the endpoint 52 00:02:38,480 --> 00:02:40,200 Speaker 5: going to be of this thing? And then it all 53 00:02:40,320 --> 00:02:44,200 Speaker 5: sort of dissipated as quickly as it had begun. Pregoshen said, Okay, 54 00:02:44,200 --> 00:02:47,560 Speaker 5: we're turning around, and then they cut this deal where 55 00:02:47,600 --> 00:02:50,160 Speaker 5: he's supposed to go to Belarus. So we're still trying 56 00:02:50,160 --> 00:02:52,560 Speaker 5: to figure that out. But you know, this is going 57 00:02:52,639 --> 00:02:55,120 Speaker 5: to shake the foundations for a lot of people of 58 00:02:55,200 --> 00:02:57,600 Speaker 5: Putin's grip on power. The question is what he does now. 59 00:02:57,639 --> 00:03:00,560 Speaker 5: Obviously the media is very tightly controlled and Russia, so 60 00:03:00,600 --> 00:03:04,799 Speaker 5: there's not a real sense that this is being heavily discussed. 61 00:03:05,639 --> 00:03:07,400 Speaker 5: So so many questions. 62 00:03:07,000 --> 00:03:09,240 Speaker 2: So many questions, and as we read on the terminal 63 00:03:09,600 --> 00:03:13,160 Speaker 2: Wagner chief says he had no plan to overthrow Putin's government, 64 00:03:13,160 --> 00:03:18,480 Speaker 2: which is pretty remarkable. He did speak earlier today. We're 65 00:03:18,480 --> 00:03:23,280 Speaker 2: getting used to these soliloquies from the chef here. What 66 00:03:23,280 --> 00:03:25,000 Speaker 2: do you make of that? We didn't have the goal, 67 00:03:25,040 --> 00:03:28,919 Speaker 2: he says, of overthrowing the existing regime and legitimacy elected, 68 00:03:29,320 --> 00:03:32,640 Speaker 2: legitimately elected government. An eleven minute message here he says, 69 00:03:33,000 --> 00:03:35,760 Speaker 2: we did not want to spill Russian blood. Well, was 70 00:03:35,800 --> 00:03:36,880 Speaker 2: he just trying to shake him up? 71 00:03:37,000 --> 00:03:37,240 Speaker 3: Well? 72 00:03:37,320 --> 00:03:40,760 Speaker 5: So, I mean, the narrative all along here has been 73 00:03:40,800 --> 00:03:43,960 Speaker 5: that his problem was what his beef was with how 74 00:03:44,120 --> 00:03:49,000 Speaker 5: Russian forces were prosecuting the war in Ukraine. If he 75 00:03:49,120 --> 00:03:52,680 Speaker 5: had really gone after Putin himself, that would be seen 76 00:03:52,800 --> 00:03:56,960 Speaker 5: as a really direct like throwing down the gauntlet to 77 00:03:57,320 --> 00:04:01,760 Speaker 5: President Putin and would seemingly result in, you know, his destruction. 78 00:04:01,880 --> 00:04:04,080 Speaker 5: That's why you saw some very tough comments from Putin 79 00:04:04,120 --> 00:04:06,400 Speaker 5: early on, saying this amount to treason. But then you know, 80 00:04:07,400 --> 00:04:10,360 Speaker 5: Pregosian sort of gets a mulligan and says, hey, no, 81 00:04:10,520 --> 00:04:13,120 Speaker 5: our problem was not with you, It was with the 82 00:04:13,200 --> 00:04:16,520 Speaker 5: Defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, and the way that you know 83 00:04:16,600 --> 00:04:19,040 Speaker 5: this war is being prosecuted. You know, if we were 84 00:04:19,040 --> 00:04:21,599 Speaker 5: in charge, you, President Putin, would be able to get 85 00:04:21,640 --> 00:04:25,400 Speaker 5: what you wanted in a much more efficient way. So 86 00:04:25,480 --> 00:04:28,800 Speaker 5: we're not saying you're doing anything wrong. So but you know, 87 00:04:28,880 --> 00:04:31,200 Speaker 5: it was initially though, one of the things that caused 88 00:04:31,200 --> 00:04:34,400 Speaker 5: so much concern was he said he raised questions about 89 00:04:34,400 --> 00:04:36,760 Speaker 5: the whole enterprise, about whether it was smart to go 90 00:04:36,800 --> 00:04:38,160 Speaker 5: into Russian in the until you. 91 00:04:38,160 --> 00:04:41,240 Speaker 2: Created the first place, the foundation of the whole war exactly. 92 00:04:41,279 --> 00:04:43,320 Speaker 5: And so that then made people think, okay, well, that 93 00:04:43,480 --> 00:04:45,919 Speaker 5: is a challenge to Putin. Now, though where are we 94 00:04:45,960 --> 00:04:49,000 Speaker 5: three days later? It all blurs together. It seems like 95 00:04:49,080 --> 00:04:51,600 Speaker 5: he's backing down pretty significantly from that. And we had 96 00:04:51,600 --> 00:04:54,680 Speaker 5: the Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov saying that Wagner would be 97 00:04:54,760 --> 00:04:58,320 Speaker 5: allowed to continue to operate in other countries, you know, 98 00:04:58,480 --> 00:05:02,039 Speaker 5: particularly in Africa. So it's like they're being told they're 99 00:05:02,080 --> 00:05:03,360 Speaker 5: going to be allowed to exist. 100 00:05:03,560 --> 00:05:06,000 Speaker 2: Wow, And I can only imagine to what extent they 101 00:05:06,040 --> 00:05:11,240 Speaker 2: will be used. The President spoke with Vladimir Zelensky, as 102 00:05:11,279 --> 00:05:13,640 Speaker 2: he made clear, I'm sure in your head over the 103 00:05:13,680 --> 00:05:16,479 Speaker 2: weekend as you cover this, you're thinking, boy, is this 104 00:05:16,560 --> 00:05:19,479 Speaker 2: not an opportunity for Ukrainian forces. What must the Pentagon 105 00:05:19,600 --> 00:05:20,560 Speaker 2: be telling them right now? 106 00:05:20,600 --> 00:05:23,080 Speaker 5: Well, that is another one of the big questions. And 107 00:05:23,120 --> 00:05:26,919 Speaker 5: we did just report that the administration is sending another 108 00:05:26,960 --> 00:05:30,560 Speaker 5: five hundred million dollars in weapons to Ukraine. So this 109 00:05:30,720 --> 00:05:32,760 Speaker 5: was probably in train for a little while, but it 110 00:05:32,800 --> 00:05:35,400 Speaker 5: does certainly send a signal. I mean, the big question 111 00:05:35,480 --> 00:05:38,560 Speaker 5: is here, does this lead Ukraine to press its advantage 112 00:05:38,600 --> 00:05:41,720 Speaker 5: in the counter offensive or is there a concern that 113 00:05:41,800 --> 00:05:45,880 Speaker 5: it may lead Putin to do something irrational. Obviously he 114 00:05:45,920 --> 00:05:49,000 Speaker 5: has nuclear weapons, he may not want to look weak. 115 00:05:49,680 --> 00:05:53,080 Speaker 5: There may be, you know, an intensified bombing campaign in Ukraine. 116 00:05:53,120 --> 00:05:55,680 Speaker 5: So that the instinctive feeling was okay, this is a 117 00:05:55,720 --> 00:05:59,400 Speaker 5: great time for Ukraine to press the counter offensive, push ahead. 118 00:05:59,480 --> 00:06:05,120 Speaker 5: All remains strong, But is this actually good for Ukraine? 119 00:06:05,320 --> 00:06:07,160 Speaker 5: And that's another question we're still trying to answer. 120 00:06:07,320 --> 00:06:10,480 Speaker 2: It's nothing but questions today, and we're asking some pretty 121 00:06:10,480 --> 00:06:14,279 Speaker 2: tough ones. Nick, Thank you as always, after a working weekend. 122 00:06:14,400 --> 00:06:19,040 Speaker 2: Nick Wadhams Bloomberg National Security correspondent. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. 123 00:06:19,320 --> 00:06:21,560 Speaker 2: As we had the voice of Brett Bruin, former White 124 00:06:21,560 --> 00:06:25,880 Speaker 2: House Global Engagement director now President of the Global Situation Room. 125 00:06:26,120 --> 00:06:28,680 Speaker 2: Brett is joining us from overseas in London today and 126 00:06:28,680 --> 00:06:30,720 Speaker 2: it's great to have you back, Brett. I think we 127 00:06:30,760 --> 00:06:34,200 Speaker 2: could argue that Progosian ripped the covers off Putin's bed 128 00:06:34,240 --> 00:06:36,960 Speaker 2: over the weekend. What did he expose in terms of 129 00:06:37,160 --> 00:06:40,800 Speaker 2: potential weaknesses or existing weaknesses for Vladimir Putin? 130 00:06:41,440 --> 00:06:43,760 Speaker 3: Well, quite a few, And I think it's quite frankly 131 00:06:43,880 --> 00:06:49,240 Speaker 3: hard to put that toothpaste back in the tube. At 132 00:06:49,240 --> 00:06:54,200 Speaker 3: this point, you have a situation where Progoshin clearly was 133 00:06:54,680 --> 00:06:58,320 Speaker 3: aware of the points where Putin is most vulnerable, where 134 00:06:58,360 --> 00:07:01,560 Speaker 3: the Russian military is most vulnerable. He exploited them, and 135 00:07:01,560 --> 00:07:04,640 Speaker 3: he's now essentially given a playbook for all of the 136 00:07:04,680 --> 00:07:07,720 Speaker 3: other detractors of which there are many in the Russian 137 00:07:07,760 --> 00:07:11,360 Speaker 3: military and amongst Russian elites, to go after Putin. 138 00:07:13,440 --> 00:07:14,960 Speaker 2: So there are going to be a lot of questions 139 00:07:15,000 --> 00:07:18,000 Speaker 2: about both characters here Pregosian as well. Does he spend 140 00:07:18,040 --> 00:07:19,800 Speaker 2: the rest of his life in Belarus or does he 141 00:07:19,880 --> 00:07:22,200 Speaker 2: end up being Putin's ally at some point? Again, is 142 00:07:22,240 --> 00:07:22,880 Speaker 2: that possible? 143 00:07:23,840 --> 00:07:27,200 Speaker 3: I think his days are numbered. You do not go 144 00:07:27,280 --> 00:07:30,360 Speaker 3: after Putin like this and live to tell the talent. 145 00:07:30,440 --> 00:07:33,280 Speaker 3: As we've seen in cases, for instance here in the 146 00:07:33,360 --> 00:07:37,720 Speaker 3: United Kingdom. Putin has both a long memory and a 147 00:07:37,800 --> 00:07:41,440 Speaker 3: long arm, and so Progoshin I think is a marked man. 148 00:07:41,800 --> 00:07:46,320 Speaker 3: But that being said, for the moment, he has resettled 149 00:07:46,320 --> 00:07:49,960 Speaker 3: to Belarus and perhaps will find himself in Africa where 150 00:07:49,960 --> 00:07:54,840 Speaker 3: Wagner has a huge presence. But he is not, unfortunately, 151 00:07:55,320 --> 00:08:01,240 Speaker 3: going to survive this attempt. I think, unfortunately for him, 152 00:08:01,280 --> 00:08:07,320 Speaker 3: at least this was a miscalculation. What changed his mind, 153 00:08:07,360 --> 00:08:12,240 Speaker 3: what turned him away from taking down the Russian government? 154 00:08:12,560 --> 00:08:14,880 Speaker 3: We will find out, I imagine in the coming months. 155 00:08:15,200 --> 00:08:17,160 Speaker 2: Well, that is the big question. Now there are reports 156 00:08:17,200 --> 00:08:19,840 Speaker 2: that his family was being threatened by the Kremlin. Does 157 00:08:19,840 --> 00:08:20,520 Speaker 2: that ring true? 158 00:08:21,920 --> 00:08:25,600 Speaker 3: Well, that is a tried and true tactic when you 159 00:08:25,760 --> 00:08:30,280 Speaker 3: have those whether their dissidents, political figures, who have left 160 00:08:30,320 --> 00:08:33,800 Speaker 3: the country, and Putin will try to dissuade them from 161 00:08:33,880 --> 00:08:38,319 Speaker 3: taking action by threatening those that are closest. Pregosi, I'm 162 00:08:38,360 --> 00:08:41,040 Speaker 3: not sure that that would have changed his calculus. I 163 00:08:41,080 --> 00:08:45,280 Speaker 3: think quite frankly, it was something even more sinister. Something 164 00:08:46,720 --> 00:08:50,920 Speaker 3: we could imagine was either an attack on his troops 165 00:08:51,000 --> 00:08:54,920 Speaker 3: with some large scale weapons. It could be some other 166 00:08:55,520 --> 00:08:59,280 Speaker 3: ways in which Putin knows his vulnerabilities, knows the skeletons 167 00:08:59,280 --> 00:09:03,080 Speaker 3: that are in his closet, and those would have been exposed. 168 00:09:03,080 --> 00:09:06,080 Speaker 3: So perhaps Progosian decided it was best to avoid that 169 00:09:06,240 --> 00:09:08,360 Speaker 3: and to escape to live another day. 170 00:09:08,600 --> 00:09:10,360 Speaker 2: But you think he's a marked man. You don't think 171 00:09:10,600 --> 00:09:12,200 Speaker 2: he's going to be on this earth a lot longer. 172 00:09:12,240 --> 00:09:17,000 Speaker 3: It sounds like, just based on everything that we know 173 00:09:17,120 --> 00:09:20,680 Speaker 3: about Putin, you do not go after him, And certainly 174 00:09:20,679 --> 00:09:23,880 Speaker 3: Progoson has gone after him in a much more aggressive 175 00:09:23,920 --> 00:09:27,000 Speaker 3: way than anything that we have seen over the last 176 00:09:27,040 --> 00:09:30,680 Speaker 3: couple of decades. So Putin is already busy at work 177 00:09:31,120 --> 00:09:35,160 Speaker 3: and understanding a little bit of Howput's mind works. He's 178 00:09:35,240 --> 00:09:39,000 Speaker 3: developing those plans of what can I do that we'll 179 00:09:39,120 --> 00:09:42,640 Speaker 3: both remove progos as well as those around him. I mean, 180 00:09:42,679 --> 00:09:47,760 Speaker 3: there were dozens, hundreds, even of Russian military officials that 181 00:09:47,840 --> 00:09:53,359 Speaker 3: either look the other way, turned sides in this uprising, 182 00:09:53,480 --> 00:09:57,160 Speaker 3: and I think Putin is certainly going to remove all 183 00:09:57,200 --> 00:10:01,800 Speaker 3: of them, and they will face a very a difficult 184 00:10:01,880 --> 00:10:03,640 Speaker 3: day before Russian justice. 185 00:10:04,440 --> 00:10:06,640 Speaker 2: You seem to think, and you can correct me on this, 186 00:10:06,760 --> 00:10:10,640 Speaker 2: that Progosion is defanged at least to some extent. What 187 00:10:10,640 --> 00:10:13,000 Speaker 2: does that mean then if he's in Belarus, what does 188 00:10:13,040 --> 00:10:15,360 Speaker 2: it mean for neighbors of Belarus? Should Poland be worried? 189 00:10:15,400 --> 00:10:19,760 Speaker 2: Should other NATO allies be worried because their next door I. 190 00:10:19,720 --> 00:10:24,959 Speaker 3: Would have less concerns about NATO allies. I do think, 191 00:10:25,040 --> 00:10:28,880 Speaker 3: quite frankly, what we saw play out on Friday and 192 00:10:28,920 --> 00:10:33,880 Speaker 3: Saturday was alarming for the world that the possibility that 193 00:10:33,960 --> 00:10:40,240 Speaker 3: progosion had potentially within his perhaps nuclear weapons, that is 194 00:10:40,320 --> 00:10:43,640 Speaker 3: really alarming. I don't know that he or even Wagner 195 00:10:44,480 --> 00:10:50,080 Speaker 3: affiliates will necessarily get there again, but the possibility of 196 00:10:50,080 --> 00:10:54,480 Speaker 3: other groups of other figures using that game plan and 197 00:10:54,520 --> 00:10:59,040 Speaker 3: trying to seize nuclear weapon from a very fragile Russian 198 00:10:59,080 --> 00:11:02,600 Speaker 3: state is certainly a prospect that a lot of military 199 00:11:02,640 --> 00:11:04,400 Speaker 3: planners right now are drawing up. 200 00:11:04,400 --> 00:11:06,880 Speaker 2: Which I suspect you were thinking about over the weekend. 201 00:11:06,960 --> 00:11:10,040 Speaker 2: Having been at the White House in times of geopolitical crisis, 202 00:11:11,600 --> 00:11:13,720 Speaker 2: What was that like the President was at Camp David, 203 00:11:13,720 --> 00:11:14,920 Speaker 2: What was it like behind the scenes? 204 00:11:14,960 --> 00:11:19,680 Speaker 3: Brett, Well, you're trying to figure out all of the 205 00:11:19,800 --> 00:11:23,160 Speaker 3: different ramifications from this, not only what does it look 206 00:11:23,280 --> 00:11:27,040 Speaker 3: like if Wagner forces get to Moscow? But looking out 207 00:11:27,080 --> 00:11:31,920 Speaker 3: across Russia's borders, what's getting out both who? But with 208 00:11:32,240 --> 00:11:34,679 Speaker 3: what are they escaping at this point? And when we 209 00:11:34,720 --> 00:11:37,520 Speaker 3: saw a number of Russian officials oligarchs who are leaving 210 00:11:37,520 --> 00:11:41,720 Speaker 3: the country, they could be carrying with them chemical, biological, 211 00:11:42,280 --> 00:11:47,080 Speaker 3: other weapons agents. All of that is a huge risk 212 00:11:47,559 --> 00:11:50,560 Speaker 3: for global stability. Those kinds of things are running through 213 00:11:50,600 --> 00:11:53,920 Speaker 3: your mind and are obviously running through discussions in this situation. 214 00:11:54,200 --> 00:11:57,120 Speaker 2: M Brett, I've got just about a minute left. What 215 00:11:57,320 --> 00:12:01,040 Speaker 2: lesson did China learn over the weeks? 216 00:12:01,360 --> 00:12:03,280 Speaker 3: Well, I hope we've learned from the last year and 217 00:12:03,320 --> 00:12:08,000 Speaker 3: a half that these authoritarian leaders are more vulnerable than 218 00:12:08,040 --> 00:12:10,880 Speaker 3: they appear. And I've been arguing Jovis you know from 219 00:12:10,920 --> 00:12:14,160 Speaker 3: the very beginning that we have to blow away some 220 00:12:14,240 --> 00:12:17,560 Speaker 3: of the propaganda and some of the hype that their 221 00:12:17,760 --> 00:12:21,240 Speaker 3: rule is built on. And pregosion in one sense has 222 00:12:21,320 --> 00:12:24,760 Speaker 3: given us that model of saying we can actually show 223 00:12:24,920 --> 00:12:30,120 Speaker 3: how utterly fragile Putin as well as Hijin, King Kim 224 00:12:30,200 --> 00:12:32,120 Speaker 3: Jong Ang are and I think the world will be 225 00:12:32,120 --> 00:12:33,559 Speaker 3: a better place when we do so. 226 00:12:34,600 --> 00:12:37,400 Speaker 2: You know, they have been saying that President she is 227 00:12:37,440 --> 00:12:40,920 Speaker 2: watching Ukraine to figure out what to do with Taiwan, 228 00:12:40,960 --> 00:12:44,120 Speaker 2: and you do wonder to what extent his calculation changed 229 00:12:44,280 --> 00:12:47,000 Speaker 2: over the weekend. Brett, thank you for joining us live 230 00:12:47,040 --> 00:12:50,040 Speaker 2: from London. Brett Bruin, former White House Global Engagement Director, 231 00:12:50,120 --> 00:12:53,120 Speaker 2: now President of the Global Situation Room, with us in 232 00:12:53,160 --> 00:12:55,120 Speaker 2: the UK. Should be about dinner time there. Hope you 233 00:12:55,120 --> 00:12:57,680 Speaker 2: have a good evening, Brett. As we assemble our panel. Next, 234 00:12:57,760 --> 00:13:01,560 Speaker 2: Rick Davis and Janie Shanzano are in with political analysis 235 00:13:01,920 --> 00:13:05,120 Speaker 2: following the weekend that wasn't for mister progosion? What does 236 00:13:05,160 --> 00:13:07,319 Speaker 2: it mean for Vladimir Putin going forward? A lot of 237 00:13:07,400 --> 00:13:10,319 Speaker 2: questions here inside the Beltway. I'm Joe Matthew. 238 00:13:10,400 --> 00:13:16,120 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg. You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. 239 00:13:16,480 --> 00:13:20,559 Speaker 1: Catch the program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, 240 00:13:20,720 --> 00:13:23,480 Speaker 1: the tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg 241 00:13:23,520 --> 00:13:26,800 Speaker 1: Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa 242 00:13:26,880 --> 00:13:30,240 Speaker 1: from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play 243 00:13:30,360 --> 00:13:32,960 Speaker 1: Bloomberg eleven thirty. 244 00:13:33,080 --> 00:13:37,840 Speaker 2: What does the power struggle lead to in Ukraine? Never 245 00:13:37,920 --> 00:13:40,840 Speaker 2: mind Russia? Big questions we have this morning following this 246 00:13:41,000 --> 00:13:46,600 Speaker 2: remarkable event over the weekend, watching the tanks roll as 247 00:13:46,679 --> 00:13:50,160 Speaker 2: mister Progosion made his way almost to Moscow. Now he's 248 00:13:50,200 --> 00:13:52,760 Speaker 2: saying this morning, if you're just catching up on things, 249 00:13:53,559 --> 00:13:58,640 Speaker 2: if Guinny Progoson says he never intended to topple the 250 00:13:58,720 --> 00:14:02,320 Speaker 2: Putin regime. He was just trying to shake up the 251 00:14:02,360 --> 00:14:06,280 Speaker 2: military press. But I'll tell you what, on Saturday, you 252 00:14:06,320 --> 00:14:09,080 Speaker 2: could have fooled me and a lot of other people 253 00:14:10,559 --> 00:14:12,319 Speaker 2: as they made their way within one hundred and fifty 254 00:14:12,320 --> 00:14:16,319 Speaker 2: miles of Moscow, took over an important city for the 255 00:14:16,400 --> 00:14:22,000 Speaker 2: Russian military, only to be turned back one hundred and 256 00:14:22,080 --> 00:14:24,680 Speaker 2: fifty miles away. As I mentioned, the Daily Telegraph reporting 257 00:14:24,760 --> 00:14:28,360 Speaker 2: Russian agents threatened to go after mister Progosian's family, which 258 00:14:29,320 --> 00:14:32,280 Speaker 2: rings true to some, including Brett Bruin, who he just 259 00:14:32,320 --> 00:14:36,520 Speaker 2: spoke with. We assembled our panel now after a I 260 00:14:36,520 --> 00:14:38,720 Speaker 2: think we can all say historic weekend, no matter what 261 00:14:38,760 --> 00:14:40,960 Speaker 2: it leads to. Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzano are with 262 00:14:41,040 --> 00:14:45,040 Speaker 2: us Bloomberg Politics contributors. Rick, I know you were watching 263 00:14:45,080 --> 00:14:47,440 Speaker 2: along with everybody else here on Saturday. What do you 264 00:14:47,480 --> 00:14:48,480 Speaker 2: think made him turn around? 265 00:14:49,280 --> 00:14:51,200 Speaker 6: Well, I'm sure it was a threat to his life, 266 00:14:51,200 --> 00:14:54,280 Speaker 6: his family's lives, and a get out of jail free 267 00:14:54,320 --> 00:14:57,720 Speaker 6: card to go live happily ever after in Belarus. 268 00:14:57,720 --> 00:15:00,160 Speaker 2: So that's a big change. After he said that he 269 00:15:00,200 --> 00:15:02,800 Speaker 2: wasn't afraid of dying and he was rolling to get Putin, 270 00:15:02,840 --> 00:15:06,280 Speaker 2: I thought, how did it's like night and day after 271 00:15:06,320 --> 00:15:06,840 Speaker 2: what we heard. 272 00:15:07,000 --> 00:15:08,800 Speaker 6: Yeah, I think it's fair to say he was probably 273 00:15:08,800 --> 00:15:09,440 Speaker 6: gaming Putin. 274 00:15:09,560 --> 00:15:09,680 Speaker 1: Right. 275 00:15:09,720 --> 00:15:12,720 Speaker 6: Everything we've learned to this point is that you know, 276 00:15:12,760 --> 00:15:16,600 Speaker 6: he was looking for something, and something probably included not 277 00:15:16,720 --> 00:15:20,520 Speaker 6: having attacks on his own people, because remember what precipitated 278 00:15:20,520 --> 00:15:24,000 Speaker 6: this was an attack on his wagoner troops, you know, 279 00:15:24,040 --> 00:15:29,280 Speaker 6: who were bivouacked outside the battle zone by regular Russian army, 280 00:15:29,360 --> 00:15:31,600 Speaker 6: and so I think this was his way of getting 281 00:15:31,600 --> 00:15:34,360 Speaker 6: back at them. I think this was probably as inspired 282 00:15:34,400 --> 00:15:38,080 Speaker 6: by emotion as it was by strategy. But getting halfway 283 00:15:38,080 --> 00:15:40,400 Speaker 6: there and then you know, fleeing town and you know, 284 00:15:40,640 --> 00:15:44,280 Speaker 6: probably showing up somewhere and Baylarus, you know, just indicates 285 00:15:44,280 --> 00:15:46,080 Speaker 6: that he didn't have much of a plan, right. I mean, 286 00:15:46,080 --> 00:15:50,080 Speaker 6: this is a guy who works off of emotional impulses. 287 00:15:50,080 --> 00:15:52,720 Speaker 6: And my guess is we're trying to we're trying to 288 00:15:52,720 --> 00:15:56,760 Speaker 6: put strategy behind just somebody being really pissed. 289 00:15:56,480 --> 00:16:02,600 Speaker 2: Off, Wow, ruined Geenie didn't seem to think that mister 290 00:16:02,680 --> 00:16:05,280 Speaker 2: Progosion would be around for a lot longer, said he 291 00:16:05,360 --> 00:16:10,720 Speaker 2: was a marked man. Is he safe even in Belarus 292 00:16:10,800 --> 00:16:13,760 Speaker 2: at this point or does he live to see another day? Joe? 293 00:16:13,760 --> 00:16:15,960 Speaker 7: This is why I warn you don't empower your chef 294 00:16:16,040 --> 00:16:19,920 Speaker 7: too much. Very careful how much power and they're emotional. 295 00:16:19,400 --> 00:16:21,000 Speaker 2: To really keep your eyes on the caterer. 296 00:16:21,080 --> 00:16:23,760 Speaker 7: Keep your eye on the caterer. You know, it doesn't 297 00:16:23,800 --> 00:16:26,520 Speaker 7: seem like he would have very long to live. In fact, 298 00:16:26,880 --> 00:16:30,360 Speaker 7: the Russian media today is reporting that despite this you 299 00:16:30,360 --> 00:16:33,360 Speaker 7: know agreement quote unquote that was reached to end this 300 00:16:33,360 --> 00:16:36,640 Speaker 7: thing in a compromise, that they are announcing that the 301 00:16:36,640 --> 00:16:42,680 Speaker 7: investigation still continues. And Putin did say in his remarks 302 00:16:42,800 --> 00:16:46,320 Speaker 7: that there was going to be harsh consequences for any activity. So, 303 00:16:46,560 --> 00:16:49,080 Speaker 7: you know, I don't think I would feel very safe 304 00:16:49,400 --> 00:16:52,480 Speaker 7: going to Belarus or elsewhere if I was him. But 305 00:16:52,800 --> 00:16:55,560 Speaker 7: you know, so much of what happened over the weekend 306 00:16:55,760 --> 00:16:59,960 Speaker 7: raised so many questions to your earlier guest point, including 307 00:17:00,160 --> 00:17:04,159 Speaker 7: the fact, does the criticism that he launched about the 308 00:17:04,200 --> 00:17:06,360 Speaker 7: war and Russia of the war in Ukane rather, does 309 00:17:06,400 --> 00:17:10,600 Speaker 7: that have any resonance with the Russian people, this idea 310 00:17:10,800 --> 00:17:13,679 Speaker 7: that this war to begin with was a war that 311 00:17:13,760 --> 00:17:16,440 Speaker 7: was misguided and a war of choice that shouldn't have been, 312 00:17:17,080 --> 00:17:20,399 Speaker 7: that they shouldn't have entered into that. And also I 313 00:17:20,480 --> 00:17:23,840 Speaker 7: was stunned by Putin's analogy to the Bolshevik Revolution of 314 00:17:23,920 --> 00:17:26,520 Speaker 7: nineteen seventeen that was a loser for Russia. So I'm 315 00:17:26,560 --> 00:17:29,680 Speaker 7: not sure what that was about. 316 00:17:29,960 --> 00:17:33,000 Speaker 2: I don't have answers on that one or any of these, really, Rick, 317 00:17:33,080 --> 00:17:36,480 Speaker 2: I do wonder, though we haven't seen Vladimir Putin to 318 00:17:36,560 --> 00:17:41,200 Speaker 2: what extent did this weeken him, and I guess define 319 00:17:41,240 --> 00:17:43,520 Speaker 2: his inner circle more closely. 320 00:17:43,640 --> 00:17:45,320 Speaker 6: Well, you never, Joe, you never want to have the 321 00:17:45,480 --> 00:17:51,439 Speaker 6: entire weekend spent being referred to as being humiliated, especially 322 00:17:51,480 --> 00:17:54,520 Speaker 6: if you're Vladimir Putin, who I think his status in 323 00:17:54,560 --> 00:17:57,639 Speaker 6: the world has always been very important to him, and 324 00:17:57,800 --> 00:18:00,960 Speaker 6: arguably for the last two years since the invasion of Ukraine, 325 00:18:01,119 --> 00:18:04,320 Speaker 6: he's whittled away at that almost on a daily basis. 326 00:18:04,320 --> 00:18:07,119 Speaker 6: But this was a big leap. This showed that the 327 00:18:07,160 --> 00:18:10,840 Speaker 6: emperor has no clothes that his control over people like 328 00:18:11,040 --> 00:18:15,000 Speaker 6: Progros and who he has invented, these these oligarchs who 329 00:18:15,040 --> 00:18:19,560 Speaker 6: he invented. Uh. And and and the entire establishment of 330 00:18:19,600 --> 00:18:24,200 Speaker 6: the military, which has had its own issues uh with 331 00:18:24,200 --> 00:18:26,400 Speaker 6: with performance uh in Ukraine. 332 00:18:26,760 --> 00:18:26,879 Speaker 7: Uh. 333 00:18:26,960 --> 00:18:29,760 Speaker 6: It just shows that everything we thought about this country 334 00:18:30,320 --> 00:18:33,040 Speaker 6: uh may be wrong, and that everything we thought about 335 00:18:33,040 --> 00:18:35,720 Speaker 6: the secure grip on power that Putin had may be 336 00:18:35,840 --> 00:18:39,080 Speaker 6: wrong too, and and and and Putin lives off of 337 00:18:39,119 --> 00:18:39,800 Speaker 6: these images. 338 00:18:39,880 --> 00:18:40,040 Speaker 2: Right. 339 00:18:40,119 --> 00:18:43,520 Speaker 6: This is you know, it's not the actual control you have, 340 00:18:43,800 --> 00:18:46,520 Speaker 6: it's the image of control that you have that keeps 341 00:18:46,560 --> 00:18:50,720 Speaker 6: people in place. We saw a lot of protests a 342 00:18:50,800 --> 00:18:55,320 Speaker 6: year ago on the war and and against it in Moscow. 343 00:18:55,400 --> 00:18:57,800 Speaker 6: He shut that down by arresting and killing people. 344 00:18:58,240 --> 00:18:58,359 Speaker 7: Uh. 345 00:18:58,680 --> 00:19:01,720 Speaker 6: I wonder if that's gonna rear up its ugly head 346 00:19:01,720 --> 00:19:06,680 Speaker 6: again and people in Russia decide, Okay, we've had enough 347 00:19:06,680 --> 00:19:07,200 Speaker 6: of this guy. 348 00:19:07,280 --> 00:19:10,000 Speaker 2: He's not what we thought he was. Boy, that would 349 00:19:10,040 --> 00:19:14,159 Speaker 2: be quite the change. Though we did see pregosion at 350 00:19:14,240 --> 00:19:17,359 Speaker 2: least his people. As they rolled into these towns on 351 00:19:17,400 --> 00:19:21,800 Speaker 2: the way to Moscow, they were celebrated by Russian civilians, Genie, 352 00:19:21,840 --> 00:19:25,040 Speaker 2: who clearly do not favor this war. And you wonder 353 00:19:25,040 --> 00:19:28,480 Speaker 2: what that means for the trajectory of combat in Ukraine. 354 00:19:28,840 --> 00:19:31,280 Speaker 7: That's right. In fact, they were cheered in some places, 355 00:19:31,320 --> 00:19:34,320 Speaker 7: and we know even members of the Russian military they 356 00:19:34,400 --> 00:19:36,919 Speaker 7: did not help, but they did not stop these troops 357 00:19:36,960 --> 00:19:39,560 Speaker 7: as they kept marching along. And again it does raise 358 00:19:39,600 --> 00:19:43,600 Speaker 7: this question, does his argument about the war resonate or 359 00:19:43,920 --> 00:19:47,639 Speaker 7: you start a trickle effect or otherwise to get people 360 00:19:47,640 --> 00:19:50,320 Speaker 7: out to the streets or otherwise to say, you know, 361 00:19:50,440 --> 00:19:52,600 Speaker 7: this is not what we should be doing. I think 362 00:19:52,680 --> 00:19:55,240 Speaker 7: one real impact here as it concerns the war is 363 00:19:55,280 --> 00:19:57,280 Speaker 7: the argument has long been made and put In a 364 00:19:57,440 --> 00:20:00,359 Speaker 7: long expressed the idea that he has time on his side, 365 00:20:00,440 --> 00:20:03,200 Speaker 7: he can sort of sit and eventually the United States 366 00:20:03,240 --> 00:20:06,160 Speaker 7: and Europe will give up. And we've heard questions even 367 00:20:06,200 --> 00:20:09,520 Speaker 7: in European capitals. We've heard questions in Washington, how long 368 00:20:09,560 --> 00:20:12,520 Speaker 7: can we continue to do this? Well, now, given what's 369 00:20:12,560 --> 00:20:15,639 Speaker 7: happened in the last seventy two hours, time is not 370 00:20:15,760 --> 00:20:19,480 Speaker 7: on Putin's side. If his chef can do this, what 371 00:20:19,640 --> 00:20:22,640 Speaker 7: else can be done to disrupt his plans to sit 372 00:20:22,720 --> 00:20:25,520 Speaker 7: in Ukraine until we give up? So the argument that 373 00:20:25,560 --> 00:20:27,879 Speaker 7: he has time maybe not as much as he thought. 374 00:20:28,119 --> 00:20:32,679 Speaker 2: Are you suggesting he does something extreme? We get some 375 00:20:32,680 --> 00:20:34,800 Speaker 2: sort of knee jerk reaction here in the coming days 376 00:20:34,800 --> 00:20:35,640 Speaker 2: to make a point. 377 00:20:35,920 --> 00:20:39,000 Speaker 7: Absolutely, it's absolutely possible. I mean, this is a real 378 00:20:39,119 --> 00:20:42,159 Speaker 7: humiliation to Rick's point, This is a real challenge to 379 00:20:42,200 --> 00:20:44,960 Speaker 7: his authority. And what do frightened cornered animals do. They 380 00:20:45,080 --> 00:20:47,679 Speaker 7: lash back, and he could very easily lash back. So 381 00:20:47,720 --> 00:20:50,200 Speaker 7: while people are saying Ukraine's in a better position today 382 00:20:50,280 --> 00:20:53,040 Speaker 7: than it was seventy two hours ago, they also can 383 00:20:53,080 --> 00:20:56,239 Speaker 7: be facing new threats from a man who controls how 384 00:20:56,240 --> 00:20:59,760 Speaker 7: many six thousand nuclear weapons around Russia which have to 385 00:20:59,800 --> 00:21:01,920 Speaker 7: be uh you know, watched very carefully. 386 00:21:02,000 --> 00:21:04,840 Speaker 2: So was this a military moment, an opportunity for Ukraine, Rick, 387 00:21:05,000 --> 00:21:08,040 Speaker 2: or would that have required progotion going all the way 388 00:21:08,040 --> 00:21:11,240 Speaker 2: to Moscow to distract the Russian military? It doesn't seem 389 00:21:11,280 --> 00:21:15,359 Speaker 2: like there's a lot of uh of aftermath following the 390 00:21:15,400 --> 00:21:16,720 Speaker 2: march to Moscow. 391 00:21:16,760 --> 00:21:21,840 Speaker 6: Here my senses that and every Russia observer I've talked to, 392 00:21:22,040 --> 00:21:25,119 Speaker 6: is there's a lot going on inside the Kremlin that 393 00:21:25,160 --> 00:21:29,080 Speaker 6: we don't know much about. Whether the Minister of Defense 394 00:21:29,200 --> 00:21:33,840 Speaker 6: and the top general staff survived this. It's an enormous embarrassment. 395 00:21:33,840 --> 00:21:38,320 Speaker 6: And forget being embarrassed by their lackluster performance, uh you know, 396 00:21:38,480 --> 00:21:43,879 Speaker 6: in uh in in Ukraine, forget the unmitigated attack on 397 00:21:44,480 --> 00:21:48,600 Speaker 6: Progrosian's own troops. You know that they that they facilitated, 398 00:21:48,600 --> 00:21:51,520 Speaker 6: at least according to him. And and forget the fact that, 399 00:21:51,840 --> 00:21:56,040 Speaker 6: you know, virtually unopposed, Progrosian and his troop of Wagner 400 00:21:56,080 --> 00:21:59,800 Speaker 6: mercenaries were able to go into Rostov von dam And 401 00:21:59,800 --> 00:22:03,280 Speaker 6: and take over the southern command of the military and 402 00:22:03,320 --> 00:22:05,280 Speaker 6: then head up the highway to Moscow. 403 00:22:05,280 --> 00:22:07,080 Speaker 2: I mean, like, where was the army. 404 00:22:07,680 --> 00:22:13,440 Speaker 6: So I don't think this goes without a significant impact, 405 00:22:13,440 --> 00:22:15,960 Speaker 6: because the people of Russia got wind of this, right, 406 00:22:16,000 --> 00:22:19,960 Speaker 6: they now know what's been happening. Putin himself pointed it out. 407 00:22:20,480 --> 00:22:23,560 Speaker 6: And I can't imagine it's going to be business as usual. 408 00:22:23,880 --> 00:22:27,159 Speaker 6: They'll try to show stability, but I think you know, 409 00:22:27,240 --> 00:22:30,680 Speaker 6: Putin's got to look inside his own organization say I've 410 00:22:30,680 --> 00:22:32,600 Speaker 6: got a disaster on my hands, and if I don't 411 00:22:32,600 --> 00:22:33,639 Speaker 6: fix it, it's on me. 412 00:22:34,640 --> 00:22:37,680 Speaker 2: President Biden, speaking today, Genie said the US had nothing 413 00:22:37,680 --> 00:22:39,919 Speaker 2: to do with this. The US and NATO had nothing 414 00:22:39,920 --> 00:22:41,920 Speaker 2: to do with it. Part of a struggle within the 415 00:22:42,000 --> 00:22:45,360 Speaker 2: Russian system, He said, what's the point of even saying 416 00:22:45,400 --> 00:22:47,480 Speaker 2: all of that? Why not let people think what they. 417 00:22:47,320 --> 00:22:49,800 Speaker 7: Want I think they're trying to use the same tactic 418 00:22:49,840 --> 00:22:52,080 Speaker 7: they have, which is to try to stop Russia and 419 00:22:52,119 --> 00:22:55,119 Speaker 7: put In from trying to lay the blame elsewhere. We 420 00:22:55,200 --> 00:22:58,800 Speaker 7: heard the same message from the Secretary General of NATO. 421 00:22:59,000 --> 00:23:00,840 Speaker 7: And also we are two two weeks out of this 422 00:23:00,920 --> 00:23:03,919 Speaker 7: big NATO summit, and so you know that'll happen in 423 00:23:03,960 --> 00:23:07,000 Speaker 7: Lithuania in two weeks, and so much of that summit 424 00:23:07,040 --> 00:23:09,879 Speaker 7: will now be, you know, focused on what is happening 425 00:23:09,920 --> 00:23:12,080 Speaker 7: and what has happened over the weekend, and I think 426 00:23:12,119 --> 00:23:14,320 Speaker 7: they're going to continue to make the case that this 427 00:23:14,440 --> 00:23:17,520 Speaker 7: is an internal Russian issue of which they had nothing 428 00:23:17,680 --> 00:23:18,040 Speaker 7: to do. 429 00:23:18,560 --> 00:23:21,080 Speaker 2: Well. All this was happening on Saturday. The man who 430 00:23:21,119 --> 00:23:24,239 Speaker 2: says he can solve the Ukraine War in less than 431 00:23:24,280 --> 00:23:26,880 Speaker 2: twenty four hours was speaking to an adoring crowd here 432 00:23:26,880 --> 00:23:29,480 Speaker 2: in Washington. That, of course, would be the former president 433 00:23:29,520 --> 00:23:31,480 Speaker 2: Donald Trump. We're going to get into that as the 434 00:23:31,520 --> 00:23:33,680 Speaker 2: candidates get back on the trail this week following the 435 00:23:33,680 --> 00:23:37,040 Speaker 2: big evangelical confab here in Washington over the weekend. 436 00:23:38,080 --> 00:23:41,560 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us 437 00:23:41,600 --> 00:23:44,679 Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com. 438 00:23:44,720 --> 00:23:46,120 Speaker 2: The iHeartRadio app. 439 00:23:45,880 --> 00:23:48,800 Speaker 1: And the Bloomberg Business app or listening on demand wherever 440 00:23:48,840 --> 00:23:50,000 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts. 441 00:23:51,320 --> 00:23:55,639 Speaker 2: It's feeling a lot like campaign season. Washington is now empty. God, 442 00:23:55,640 --> 00:23:57,800 Speaker 2: that was a nice ride in this morning park where 443 00:23:57,840 --> 00:24:01,920 Speaker 2: you want. The candidates are on the road. Summer is here. 444 00:24:01,960 --> 00:24:04,600 Speaker 2: Even Joe Biden gets back out there this week with 445 00:24:04,760 --> 00:24:08,679 Speaker 2: fundraisers and events in Maryland and Chicago. Today they're talking 446 00:24:09,200 --> 00:24:14,440 Speaker 2: Bidenomics at the White House, infrastructure and broadband for all. 447 00:24:14,480 --> 00:24:17,560 Speaker 2: It's feeling like we're getting there. And this comes after 448 00:24:17,600 --> 00:24:20,720 Speaker 2: the big evangelical summit we talked about on Friday, the 449 00:24:20,760 --> 00:24:25,399 Speaker 2: Faith and Freedom Coalition, Mike Pence holding forth, Chris Christy 450 00:24:25,520 --> 00:24:28,320 Speaker 2: getting booed, Ronda Santis doing his thing, and the big 451 00:24:28,359 --> 00:24:35,000 Speaker 2: closer of course, Saturday night, the former President Donald Trump 452 00:24:35,040 --> 00:24:41,160 Speaker 2: at the Washington Hilton. Thank you very much, Thank you all. 453 00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:45,480 Speaker 2: Be great Saturday night. We're here for religion. Is that nice? 454 00:24:47,080 --> 00:24:47,280 Speaker 1: Yes? 455 00:24:47,320 --> 00:24:47,960 Speaker 4: Brought a job. 456 00:24:48,040 --> 00:24:51,560 Speaker 2: Ralphsta like every Saturday night at mar A Lago. As 457 00:24:51,600 --> 00:24:55,120 Speaker 2: we reassemble our panel, Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanza, we're 458 00:24:55,119 --> 00:24:59,320 Speaker 2: here off the weekend Bloomberg Politics contributors. Rick, I'm not 459 00:24:59,359 --> 00:25:02,800 Speaker 2: sure who that event actually helped. We saw a lot 460 00:25:02,840 --> 00:25:06,639 Speaker 2: of candidates trying to ingratiate themselves, uh to that audience, 461 00:25:06,640 --> 00:25:08,080 Speaker 2: but it was Donald Trump who owned it. 462 00:25:09,240 --> 00:25:11,879 Speaker 6: Yeah, Donald Trump owns that audience. He gave them something 463 00:25:11,960 --> 00:25:14,919 Speaker 6: that no other president has has even tried to do, 464 00:25:15,040 --> 00:25:18,320 Speaker 6: and that is a rock solid majority in the Supreme 465 00:25:18,359 --> 00:25:21,879 Speaker 6: Court on abortion and ultimately throwing Roe v. 466 00:25:21,960 --> 00:25:22,400 Speaker 2: Wade out. 467 00:25:22,480 --> 00:25:25,359 Speaker 6: So for a lifetime, he's got a pass with this crowd, 468 00:25:25,400 --> 00:25:28,240 Speaker 6: whether it's Saturday night or Tuesday night. And and the 469 00:25:28,320 --> 00:25:31,960 Speaker 6: reality is he deserves that for that reason. Don't try 470 00:25:32,000 --> 00:25:36,639 Speaker 6: to match his credentials on on you know, his faith 471 00:25:36,720 --> 00:25:40,159 Speaker 6: with people like Tim Scott or or Vice President Pence. 472 00:25:40,920 --> 00:25:43,840 Speaker 6: But he was able to do something that that really 473 00:25:44,320 --> 00:25:47,600 Speaker 6: has defied other leaders of our country. And and he 474 00:25:47,720 --> 00:25:49,880 Speaker 6: and he gets credit with this group for that, and 475 00:25:49,880 --> 00:25:52,080 Speaker 6: and and and specifically only for that. 476 00:25:52,720 --> 00:25:56,439 Speaker 2: So there's new polling outs today Genie came out over 477 00:25:56,480 --> 00:26:00,600 Speaker 2: the weekend, in fact from NBC News, uh, and shows 478 00:26:00,600 --> 00:26:03,520 Speaker 2: that the most recent indictment, so we have two now 479 00:26:03,560 --> 00:26:06,720 Speaker 2: and we may have four at some point. Here are 480 00:26:06,760 --> 00:26:10,480 Speaker 2: just don't seem to matter to Trump's supporters. Fifty five 481 00:26:10,520 --> 00:26:14,480 Speaker 2: percent of independent voters, a majority of all registered voters 482 00:26:14,760 --> 00:26:21,679 Speaker 2: have concerns. Republicans not so much. This is the fifth 483 00:26:21,680 --> 00:26:26,399 Speaker 2: Avenue situation. Right. Six out of ten Republicans believe the 484 00:26:26,400 --> 00:26:32,600 Speaker 2: indictments and investigations are politically motivated. That means the president's 485 00:26:32,840 --> 00:26:35,640 Speaker 2: former president's narrative is resonating. Listen to him here. 486 00:26:35,720 --> 00:26:40,560 Speaker 4: Every time the radical left, Democrats, Marxist communists, and fascists 487 00:26:40,560 --> 00:26:45,520 Speaker 4: indict me, I consider it a great badge of courage. 488 00:26:46,320 --> 00:26:49,440 Speaker 2: It's a big applause line, Genie. Now, half of Republican 489 00:26:49,480 --> 00:26:52,359 Speaker 2: primary voters in this poll say they would consider another 490 00:26:52,480 --> 00:26:55,840 Speaker 2: leader besides Trump, but who could name him? 491 00:26:56,320 --> 00:26:58,240 Speaker 7: Well, that's right, and you're talking about a group where 492 00:26:58,240 --> 00:27:01,280 Speaker 7: you've got about a third maybe even who have very 493 00:27:01,320 --> 00:27:04,720 Speaker 7: negative feelings towards the FBI. So his argument that he 494 00:27:04,840 --> 00:27:09,000 Speaker 7: is being indicted for political reasons really does resonate. And 495 00:27:09,200 --> 00:27:11,520 Speaker 7: you know, there's been a lot of sort of you know, 496 00:27:12,240 --> 00:27:16,720 Speaker 7: handringing about why the multiple indictments have not dampened their 497 00:27:16,760 --> 00:27:21,359 Speaker 7: support impact quite the opposite. But the reality is is that, 498 00:27:21,520 --> 00:27:23,720 Speaker 7: you know, there is the option that they may not 499 00:27:23,840 --> 00:27:26,800 Speaker 7: be fessing up to polsters when they're feeling like they 500 00:27:26,800 --> 00:27:30,159 Speaker 7: may be open to other candidates and There's also the 501 00:27:30,240 --> 00:27:32,840 Speaker 7: fact that you do have a substantial amount of Americans 502 00:27:32,840 --> 00:27:36,119 Speaker 7: who feel that the justice system is not treating people equally. 503 00:27:36,160 --> 00:27:37,919 Speaker 7: And so those two things he's able to use, at 504 00:27:38,000 --> 00:27:40,240 Speaker 7: least to this point to his advantage. We don't know 505 00:27:40,280 --> 00:27:43,040 Speaker 7: if that's going to continue. And then, of course these 506 00:27:43,040 --> 00:27:46,560 Speaker 7: are about choices and who, to your point, is the alternative. 507 00:27:46,920 --> 00:27:50,040 Speaker 7: We've seen Chris Christie's poll numbers creeping up a bit 508 00:27:50,080 --> 00:27:53,040 Speaker 7: in places like New Hampshire, but Ron DeSantis is are 509 00:27:53,080 --> 00:27:56,199 Speaker 7: down there. You know, there is not really a strong 510 00:27:56,400 --> 00:28:00,280 Speaker 7: viable second in the poll you're talking about. DeSantis of 511 00:28:00,320 --> 00:28:04,360 Speaker 7: support was down nine points. So you know, these numbers 512 00:28:04,400 --> 00:28:07,639 Speaker 7: are not good. And you know, I just heard somebody today, 513 00:28:07,720 --> 00:28:10,800 Speaker 7: a Republican say that, you know, they don't know what 514 00:28:10,920 --> 00:28:15,040 Speaker 7: could happen to, you know, get knocked Donald Trump out 515 00:28:15,040 --> 00:28:17,720 Speaker 7: of this point at this spot, at this point, certainly 516 00:28:17,760 --> 00:28:20,520 Speaker 7: this rash of indictments doesn't seem to hurt him at all. 517 00:28:20,680 --> 00:28:24,520 Speaker 2: This was June sixteen to June twenty rick Republican primary voters, 518 00:28:24,560 --> 00:28:30,000 Speaker 2: Donald Trump forty six, coming off of a fifty one 519 00:28:30,000 --> 00:28:33,359 Speaker 2: percent reading in June. Barely in April, rather, it barely 520 00:28:33,400 --> 00:28:35,840 Speaker 2: budged this is April to June. Ron de Santis comes 521 00:28:35,880 --> 00:28:39,400 Speaker 2: in at twenty two to Trump's fifty one, and everybody 522 00:28:39,480 --> 00:28:42,440 Speaker 2: else is in single digits. But the piece that everybody's 523 00:28:42,440 --> 00:28:45,320 Speaker 2: been paying attention to is the hypothetical. It actually shows 524 00:28:45,320 --> 00:28:48,360 Speaker 2: that Joe Biden leads Donald Trump by four points in 525 00:28:48,440 --> 00:28:51,800 Speaker 2: a general election matchup. That number small enough that we 526 00:28:51,880 --> 00:28:54,040 Speaker 2: don't pay attention to it. Rick, does it mean anything 527 00:28:54,040 --> 00:28:54,680 Speaker 2: at this point? 528 00:28:55,040 --> 00:28:56,959 Speaker 6: Well, I don't think any of these national polls mean 529 00:28:57,040 --> 00:28:59,840 Speaker 6: anything at this point. I mean, they really aren't even 530 00:28:59,880 --> 00:29:04,280 Speaker 6: in formative on trends. You know, they are a lot 531 00:29:04,320 --> 00:29:06,480 Speaker 6: of these candidate who run against Donald Trump don't really 532 00:29:06,480 --> 00:29:10,800 Speaker 6: have much name ID. They're not campaigning nationwide, They're campaigning 533 00:29:10,800 --> 00:29:13,880 Speaker 6: in a couple of early caucus in primary states, and 534 00:29:14,360 --> 00:29:16,200 Speaker 6: so you're never going to get a true picture of 535 00:29:16,200 --> 00:29:19,680 Speaker 6: this election, you know, on this Now, how do people 536 00:29:19,680 --> 00:29:21,880 Speaker 6: feel about Donald Trump? That's something you can get a 537 00:29:21,880 --> 00:29:24,400 Speaker 6: poll around. Because Trump's got one hundred percent in aid, 538 00:29:24,600 --> 00:29:26,560 Speaker 6: was present for four years, he was a candidate. 539 00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:26,760 Speaker 2: Prior to that. 540 00:29:27,280 --> 00:29:29,240 Speaker 6: And when you have fifty percent of that same sample 541 00:29:29,280 --> 00:29:31,800 Speaker 6: saying they don't want Trump, they want somebody else, that 542 00:29:31,960 --> 00:29:34,480 Speaker 6: is a tough harbinger. For Trump, right, I mean that 543 00:29:34,560 --> 00:29:38,120 Speaker 6: means that fifty percent of the Republican primary field is 544 00:29:38,680 --> 00:29:41,360 Speaker 6: open to suggestion for him. And then the question is, 545 00:29:41,880 --> 00:29:43,880 Speaker 6: you know, out of the fifty that will take him, 546 00:29:43,960 --> 00:29:45,720 Speaker 6: how many of those are going to be dissuaded, and 547 00:29:45,760 --> 00:29:48,040 Speaker 6: how many of those are already supporting somebody else? And 548 00:29:49,000 --> 00:29:51,600 Speaker 6: that means somebody else in Iowa and somebody else in 549 00:29:51,600 --> 00:29:54,680 Speaker 6: New Hampshire. So I think they're informative in the sense 550 00:29:54,720 --> 00:29:58,000 Speaker 6: that they tell you a little bit of something about 551 00:29:58,000 --> 00:30:00,040 Speaker 6: Biden and something about Trump. But I don't think I 552 00:30:00,040 --> 00:30:03,280 Speaker 6: think it's really informative about anything else, and especially not 553 00:30:03,360 --> 00:30:07,520 Speaker 6: a big national matchup like Biden versus Trump. It gives 554 00:30:07,520 --> 00:30:09,640 Speaker 6: steam to people like Christy who want to say, hey, 555 00:30:10,520 --> 00:30:12,160 Speaker 6: we're gonna make him a four time loser. 556 00:30:12,480 --> 00:30:14,080 Speaker 2: He's already lost three direct. 557 00:30:13,760 --> 00:30:16,480 Speaker 6: Elections and now the last thing we want to do 558 00:30:16,560 --> 00:30:19,000 Speaker 6: is lose again to Joe Biden. So that I think 559 00:30:19,120 --> 00:30:23,400 Speaker 6: thematically is probably a decent attack. But Christy's like, look, 560 00:30:23,400 --> 00:30:25,760 Speaker 6: I'm making progress. I'm you know, my hits against Donald 561 00:30:25,760 --> 00:30:27,960 Speaker 6: Trump are working, except they're not showing up in any 562 00:30:28,000 --> 00:30:31,680 Speaker 6: of these bulls. So at some point in time he's 563 00:30:31,720 --> 00:30:34,480 Speaker 6: gonna have to show some progress, and he's the only 564 00:30:34,520 --> 00:30:38,560 Speaker 6: real attacker on Trump. You'll notice hardly anybody else at 565 00:30:38,560 --> 00:30:43,200 Speaker 6: the Faith and Freedom Caucus this weekend really took a 566 00:30:43,240 --> 00:30:43,960 Speaker 6: direction shot. 567 00:30:43,760 --> 00:30:47,520 Speaker 2: A name, not at all. So when you look at this, 568 00:30:47,520 --> 00:30:51,920 Speaker 2: this this field of candidates here, like I mentioned, Trump 569 00:30:52,000 --> 00:30:56,160 Speaker 2: fifty one, Desantus twenty two. Pence is in third at 570 00:30:56,200 --> 00:30:59,920 Speaker 2: seven percentage points, Genie, and it gets pretty thin after that. 571 00:31:00,080 --> 00:31:03,640 Speaker 2: Haley four, Scott three, the aforementioned Chris Christy five. Did 572 00:31:03,640 --> 00:31:06,160 Speaker 2: I just read off the debate stage for August? 573 00:31:06,720 --> 00:31:09,120 Speaker 7: You did? And you know imagine, I mean, I would 574 00:31:09,200 --> 00:31:11,880 Speaker 7: hope that Pence would make it, but it's a high 575 00:31:11,920 --> 00:31:15,120 Speaker 7: bar to make it, you know. So it's gonna be 576 00:31:15,160 --> 00:31:17,920 Speaker 7: a very small field, it looks like, at least for 577 00:31:18,200 --> 00:31:21,600 Speaker 7: this debate. And to your earlier point, I'm looking at 578 00:31:21,600 --> 00:31:25,360 Speaker 7: the real Clear Politics average, Biden is up plus zero 579 00:31:25,600 --> 00:31:29,239 Speaker 7: point one, again, zero point one. They are tied at 580 00:31:29,240 --> 00:31:31,920 Speaker 7: forty three point seven and forty three point six. I mean, 581 00:31:32,160 --> 00:31:35,280 Speaker 7: it's outrageous. And the NBC poll, of course his plus 582 00:31:35,320 --> 00:31:37,920 Speaker 7: four is within the margin. So they are in a 583 00:31:38,000 --> 00:31:40,440 Speaker 7: dead heat, you know, quite frankly, a dead heat to 584 00:31:40,480 --> 00:31:42,600 Speaker 7: the bottom because their approval ratings are both so low. 585 00:31:43,120 --> 00:31:45,360 Speaker 2: It's a race to the bottom, and our panel have 586 00:31:45,480 --> 00:31:49,000 Speaker 2: some remaining thoughts next, because this could come well, I'll 587 00:31:49,000 --> 00:31:51,480 Speaker 2: hold that next, Rick and Jeanie. I'm Joe Matthew. This 588 00:31:51,560 --> 00:31:52,120 Speaker 2: is Bloomberg. 589 00:31:54,080 --> 00:31:57,440 Speaker 1: You're listening to The Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the 590 00:31:57,480 --> 00:32:01,360 Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the 591 00:32:01,440 --> 00:32:04,760 Speaker 1: tune in alf, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App. 592 00:32:04,880 --> 00:32:07,760 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 593 00:32:07,760 --> 00:32:13,040 Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 594 00:32:14,000 --> 00:32:18,000 Speaker 2: The presidential race came down to physical fitness. It may 595 00:32:18,040 --> 00:32:20,959 Speaker 2: not be much of a contest, so it seems today 596 00:32:21,520 --> 00:32:25,720 Speaker 2: after video of r FK Junior working out went viral 597 00:32:25,840 --> 00:32:30,320 Speaker 2: on social media, grabbing your waist board. 598 00:32:30,200 --> 00:32:32,880 Speaker 1: Until I see it stopped at Warde's. 599 00:32:32,280 --> 00:32:35,640 Speaker 2: Bench pressing here about one hundred and fifty pounds. You 600 00:32:35,720 --> 00:32:40,320 Speaker 2: hear the music in the gym. This after his trainer 601 00:32:40,320 --> 00:32:43,920 Speaker 2: tweeted this was his last drop set at fifty percent 602 00:32:43,920 --> 00:32:45,080 Speaker 2: of his max for today. 603 00:32:45,760 --> 00:32:47,640 Speaker 1: Run it right it, run, run and run and run it. 604 00:32:47,720 --> 00:32:52,360 Speaker 2: Yeah, so presumably he can press three hundred pounds. There 605 00:32:52,400 --> 00:32:57,520 Speaker 2: we go. One more. What's it now, this was such 606 00:32:57,520 --> 00:33:01,720 Speaker 2: a revelation. Good job on that one. Kennedy posted another video, 607 00:33:01,760 --> 00:33:05,960 Speaker 2: this one yesterday, of him doing push ups. It's working. 608 00:33:06,040 --> 00:33:12,320 Speaker 2: He's topless, by the way, in both of these same music. Yeah, 609 00:33:12,360 --> 00:33:14,040 Speaker 2: this is a little bit too much though. I feel 610 00:33:14,080 --> 00:33:17,840 Speaker 2: like back off with that microphone. It's a fit boy. Yeah, 611 00:33:17,920 --> 00:33:22,040 Speaker 2: fit boy coming off Miami mayor Francis Suarez campaign video 612 00:33:22,040 --> 00:33:24,479 Speaker 2: is showing him running around and working out. I'm starting 613 00:33:24,480 --> 00:33:27,840 Speaker 2: to wonder here, maybe they just put all the candidates 614 00:33:27,840 --> 00:33:31,120 Speaker 2: on a track. Maybe it's an arm wrestling event. I'm 615 00:33:31,160 --> 00:33:34,360 Speaker 2: not sure, but Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzano can help 616 00:33:34,440 --> 00:33:37,480 Speaker 2: us figure this out. Rick, does this break a rule 617 00:33:37,520 --> 00:33:40,360 Speaker 2: of campaigning? You know, you've got your candidate out there, 618 00:33:40,360 --> 00:33:42,840 Speaker 2: he's topless, he's lifting weights. Or is that actually the 619 00:33:42,880 --> 00:33:44,760 Speaker 2: way this is supposed to be done? There? 620 00:33:45,920 --> 00:33:49,400 Speaker 6: It doesn't break any rules in campaigning. If you want 621 00:33:49,400 --> 00:33:51,640 Speaker 6: to make it about your rack, you can do it 622 00:33:51,720 --> 00:33:54,880 Speaker 6: by doing exactly what he did. I just remember the 623 00:33:54,920 --> 00:33:59,200 Speaker 6: Dole campaign. One day, in a you know, t shirt 624 00:33:59,240 --> 00:34:01,640 Speaker 6: walking the beach, Bob Dole decided to show that he 625 00:34:01,760 --> 00:34:07,160 Speaker 6: was still a really athletic guy and totally backfired. So 626 00:34:07,800 --> 00:34:09,400 Speaker 6: you got to be careful what you ask for on 627 00:34:09,480 --> 00:34:12,239 Speaker 6: these sights. But my only request is you refer to 628 00:34:12,280 --> 00:34:14,120 Speaker 6: it as shirtless and not topless. 629 00:34:14,160 --> 00:34:17,439 Speaker 2: Fine, shirtless it is, Genie. I wonder does this say 630 00:34:17,480 --> 00:34:20,480 Speaker 2: more about RFK Junior or Joe Biden. 631 00:34:21,040 --> 00:34:24,600 Speaker 7: Forget them. I'm getting over you saying topless, Rick saying rack. 632 00:34:25,080 --> 00:34:27,160 Speaker 7: This whole thing has gone off the rails. I have 633 00:34:28,239 --> 00:34:32,640 Speaker 7: no words, you know, I ten million views. I am 634 00:34:32,719 --> 00:34:36,440 Speaker 7: quite speechless at this point. I just hope the debates 635 00:34:36,520 --> 00:34:41,080 Speaker 7: don't focus on weightlifting. I hope that they are about policy. 636 00:34:41,760 --> 00:34:45,720 Speaker 2: I'd say my job here is done. Nothing like tripping 637 00:34:45,760 --> 00:34:51,760 Speaker 2: up Rick and Jeanie. Thanks for listening to the sound 638 00:34:51,800 --> 00:34:54,400 Speaker 2: On podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, 639 00:34:54,480 --> 00:34:57,400 Speaker 2: at Apples, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. 640 00:34:57,760 --> 00:35:00,440 Speaker 2: And you can find us live every weekday from one Washington, 641 00:35:00,520 --> 00:35:03,399 Speaker 2: d C. At one pm Eastern time at Bloomberg dot 642 00:35:03,440 --> 00:35:12,240 Speaker 2: com