WEBVTT - Harris, Trump and Election Effects on Energy 0:00:15.880 --> 0:00:18.400 Hello, and welcome to the Votes and Verdicts podcast, hosted 0:00:18.400 --> 0:00:20.959 by the litigation and policy team at Bloomberg Intelligence, the 0:00:21.000 --> 0:00:24.880 investment research platform of Bloomberg LP. Bloomberg Intelligence has five 0:00:24.920 --> 0:00:28.040 hundred analysts and strategists working across the globe and focused 0:00:28.080 --> 0:00:30.720 on all major markets. Our coverage includes over two thousand 0:00:30.720 --> 0:00:33.839 equities and credits and have outlooks on more than ninety industries, 0:00:33.840 --> 0:00:37.560 one hundred market industries, currencies and commodities. This podcast series 0:00:37.600 --> 0:00:40.920 examines the intersection of business policy and law. I'm Nathan Dean, 0:00:40.920 --> 0:00:44.440 an analysts with Bloomberg Intelligence covering financials policy. The following 0:00:44.440 --> 0:00:46.520 which you are about to hear, was a US election 0:00:46.600 --> 0:00:49.640 webinar series with the US Energy Team that was recorded 0:00:49.640 --> 0:00:52.760 on October twenty ninth, twenty twenty four. If you have 0:00:52.760 --> 0:00:54.880 any questions or would like to have access to any 0:00:54.920 --> 0:00:58.280 of the research available is discussed in the webinar, please 0:00:58.320 --> 0:01:01.440 contact me Nathan Dean at end inten at Bloomberg dot net. 0:01:01.480 --> 0:01:01.800 Thank you. 0:01:02.680 --> 0:01:04.200 I just want to say thank you very much for 0:01:04.319 --> 0:01:07.200 joining us. Joining me on the call today is our 0:01:07.360 --> 0:01:11.520 BI Energy team, who I'm extremely excited to be discussing with. 0:01:12.080 --> 0:01:15.320 In no particular order, we have our senior analysts, Vince Piazza, 0:01:15.680 --> 0:01:19.679 Brett Gibbs, Rob Barnett, Will Harris, and Talent Custer. Now, 0:01:19.720 --> 0:01:21.959 one thing before we get started, just please note that 0:01:22.000 --> 0:01:24.400 this is interactive. Please use the Q and A function. 0:01:24.480 --> 0:01:27.520 We'll certainly be happy to answer any questions. Also, if 0:01:27.520 --> 0:01:29.600 you miss this and you know, it's going to be 0:01:29.640 --> 0:01:33.160 available both as a replay and also as a version 0:01:33.280 --> 0:01:37.480 of our Votes and Verdicts podcast series, we'll be putting 0:01:37.560 --> 0:01:39.840 that out before the election and they'll be available on 0:01:39.880 --> 0:01:45.280 Apple and Spotify and all the other various podcasts platforms. 0:01:45.720 --> 0:01:48.480 So Bloomberg Intelligence who we are. We are the equity 0:01:48.520 --> 0:01:50.880 research division of the Bloomberg Terminal. We've got about five 0:01:50.960 --> 0:01:54.600 hundred analysts and associates across the globe. We cover a 0:01:54.720 --> 0:01:59.200 variety number of companies, industries, sectors, commodities, strategies and so 0:01:59.240 --> 0:02:02.160 forth like that ventially. If it's in your portfolio, we 0:02:02.760 --> 0:02:04.600 cover it. You can find all of our research at 0:02:04.600 --> 0:02:08.080 Big The last thing I'll discuss before we move on 0:02:08.200 --> 0:02:10.840 to the topic of today is all of us are 0:02:10.880 --> 0:02:14.240 available to chat with you via the Bloomberg Terminal. If 0:02:14.280 --> 0:02:17.760 you have a client, please ib us message us, call us, 0:02:18.080 --> 0:02:20.120 because while we're going to go through the quick version 0:02:20.200 --> 0:02:23.680 of the electoral impact on the energy sector, we just 0:02:23.760 --> 0:02:25.960 like the highlight that Will and his team has put 0:02:25.960 --> 0:02:30.239 out a pretty comprehensive report on the elections, and certainly 0:02:30.320 --> 0:02:32.080 we would love to get you a copy of that 0:02:32.440 --> 0:02:36.160 before we find out what happens on November fifth. So 0:02:36.360 --> 0:02:38.079 with all that being said, let me go ahead and 0:02:38.080 --> 0:02:40.080 get started. What I'd like to do is just spend 0:02:40.120 --> 0:02:42.679 about ten minutes to talk about how you should think 0:02:42.680 --> 0:02:47.320 about Washington and when you hear the statements from presidential candidates, 0:02:47.680 --> 0:02:50.400 how does it assist you with policy analysis. Now, this 0:02:50.480 --> 0:02:53.320 not only applies to energy, but this also applies to 0:02:53.400 --> 0:02:59.160 financial services, triffs, taxes, and so forth like that. So 0:02:59.320 --> 0:03:01.400 the first thing that keep in mind is just the 0:03:01.440 --> 0:03:04.680 general state of the races. We have the House of Representatives, 0:03:05.000 --> 0:03:07.360 we have the Senate, we have the presidency. Now, for 0:03:07.400 --> 0:03:08.960 those of you who aren't in the United States are 0:03:09.000 --> 0:03:11.000 not familiar with the US government, remember the House of 0:03:11.040 --> 0:03:14.520 Representatives has fourign thirty five members. Each member serves a 0:03:14.520 --> 0:03:17.280 two year term and all fourigundred and thirty five members 0:03:17.320 --> 0:03:20.120 are up for re election. Now, according to our friends 0:03:20.120 --> 0:03:23.920 over at Bloomberg government. There's about forty four seats that 0:03:23.960 --> 0:03:26.480 are still undecided, that are either toss up or in 0:03:26.480 --> 0:03:29.600 the leaning category. So the majority of House members, when 0:03:29.639 --> 0:03:31.640 they go to bed on election night, their hard work 0:03:31.680 --> 0:03:34.560 is done there probably have already won their races, but 0:03:34.639 --> 0:03:37.560 it's those remaining forty four that we have to watch. Now. 0:03:37.800 --> 0:03:39.840 Polling in the House is a lot more difficult, But 0:03:39.920 --> 0:03:42.320 one thing we often say is is that it generally 0:03:42.360 --> 0:03:45.960 turns on the turnout of the presidential cycles. So if 0:03:46.120 --> 0:03:48.960 former President Donald Trump wins, more likely than not, the 0:03:49.000 --> 0:03:52.200 Republicans take the House. If Kamala Harris wins, more likely 0:03:52.280 --> 0:03:54.800 not the Democrats take the House, certainly things can change. 0:03:55.080 --> 0:03:57.520 But the reason why we care about this so much 0:03:57.680 --> 0:04:01.840 is because whoever controls the hose House of Representatives controls 0:04:01.880 --> 0:04:04.119 the House in Ways and Means Committee, and the House 0:04:04.160 --> 0:04:06.160 in Ways and Means Committee is the committee in the 0:04:06.160 --> 0:04:09.080 House that deals with tax reform. And because the Trump 0:04:09.080 --> 0:04:11.560 Air tax cuts expire for individuals at the end of 0:04:11.560 --> 0:04:14.400 twenty twenty five, there is going to be a robust 0:04:14.440 --> 0:04:18.640 tax debate taking place next year in Congress, and historically, 0:04:18.720 --> 0:04:22.400 tax policy starts with the House, so that Chairman or 0:04:22.480 --> 0:04:24.400 the chairwoman of the House in ways means committee will 0:04:24.400 --> 0:04:27.880 be an extremely important person to watch, probably even more 0:04:27.880 --> 0:04:30.239 important than the President when it comes to tax policy. 0:04:31.480 --> 0:04:33.520 Moving over to the Senate, you know there are one 0:04:33.560 --> 0:04:35.880 hundred senators, two from each state. They serve up six 0:04:36.000 --> 0:04:38.480 year terms. There are thirty four Senate seats that are 0:04:38.520 --> 0:04:40.520 up for right now, two of them and then state 0:04:40.520 --> 0:04:44.039 of Nebraska due to Senator Ben sass retiring, twenty three 0:04:44.080 --> 0:04:46.279 of those are held by the Democrats or their allies. 0:04:46.320 --> 0:04:49.760 There are four independents right now that caucus with the Democrats. Now, 0:04:49.760 --> 0:04:52.919 this is an extremely difficult election for the Democrats. The 0:04:52.960 --> 0:04:56.640 reason being is is that there are many states that 0:04:56.680 --> 0:05:00.080 the Democrats are defending in They're either considered swing states 0:05:00.240 --> 0:05:03.520 or Trump states, and so for the Democrats to keep 0:05:03.560 --> 0:05:09.480 control of the Senate, the Democrats essentially have to win everything. 0:05:09.880 --> 0:05:11.840 Right now, the Democrats have a fifty one to forty 0:05:11.920 --> 0:05:16.719 nine lead. Senator Joe Manchin, he's an independent caucuses with 0:05:16.760 --> 0:05:20.400 the Democrats, is going to retire. And you don't have 0:05:20.400 --> 0:05:22.600 to be a political strategist to note that West Virginia 0:05:22.680 --> 0:05:25.120 is most likely going to turn Republican. So now the 0:05:25.120 --> 0:05:27.560 Democrats are fifty to fifty, and right now there are 0:05:27.600 --> 0:05:30.880 some several tough races, like Senator Cheron Brownie's the chairman 0:05:30.880 --> 0:05:33.640 of Senate Banking Committee in Ohio. Ohio is generally a 0:05:33.680 --> 0:05:35.960 Republican state, has been at the least the state wide 0:05:36.040 --> 0:05:39.920 level for the last few election cycles. The second one 0:05:40.000 --> 0:05:43.839 is going to be Montana Senator John Tester. Senator John 0:05:43.880 --> 0:05:46.360 Tester also a member of the Senate Banking Committee. He's 0:05:46.400 --> 0:05:49.080 currently about five or six points below and Montana is 0:05:49.120 --> 0:05:51.800 also a Republican state. So where I'm going with this 0:05:51.960 --> 0:05:54.159 is that most people in Washington think the Senate is 0:05:54.160 --> 0:05:56.640 going to turn Republican. And why is that important for 0:05:56.720 --> 0:05:59.320 us in the energy sector. Well, it's about appointments of 0:05:59.400 --> 0:06:03.160 regulatory leaderships. If President Trump wins and the Republicans take 0:06:03.200 --> 0:06:05.479 the Senate, he will be able to replace the head 0:06:05.480 --> 0:06:08.280 of FERK, the head of EPA, a lot more regulatory 0:06:08.279 --> 0:06:12.039 officials with a much faster timeline than if the Democrats 0:06:12.080 --> 0:06:14.640 controlled the Senate. On the flip side, i Kamala Harris 0:06:14.680 --> 0:06:18.080 were to win, the Republican Senate could effectively jam her 0:06:18.160 --> 0:06:20.600 up or force her to keep positions in place and 0:06:20.720 --> 0:06:23.360 people in place because they're not going to be able 0:06:23.400 --> 0:06:26.080 to spend that much time confirming folks. So again something 0:06:26.080 --> 0:06:28.400 to keep in mind. Now, finally, when it comes to 0:06:28.400 --> 0:06:31.240 the presidential cycle, I apologize I cannot tell you who 0:06:31.279 --> 0:06:34.000 is going to win. Before you dialed, before we opened up, 0:06:34.480 --> 0:06:36.800 the six of us had a robust conversation on who 0:06:36.800 --> 0:06:39.000 we thought we were going to win, and we still don't know. 0:06:39.400 --> 0:06:41.159 But what we can say is is that this is 0:06:41.160 --> 0:06:45.159 a race between former President Donald Trump, vice President Kamala Harris, 0:06:45.400 --> 0:06:48.200 and the couch. And if the couch wins and people 0:06:48.240 --> 0:06:51.360 stay home, they're more likely they're not. President Trump wins. 0:06:51.640 --> 0:06:53.240 If people get off the couch and they go to 0:06:53.240 --> 0:06:56.640 the polls, more likely than not, Vice President Kamala Harris wins. 0:06:57.120 --> 0:06:59.480 And for those of us who are watching, which states 0:06:59.520 --> 0:07:02.440 to watch, in my opinion, it comes down to Pennsylvania 0:07:02.560 --> 0:07:05.320 in North Carolina. Those are the two states that I think, 0:07:05.360 --> 0:07:07.960 over the next couple of days after the election, look 0:07:08.040 --> 0:07:09.840 to see and you may get an indication of who 0:07:09.920 --> 0:07:12.880 is going to win. So with all that being said, 0:07:12.920 --> 0:07:15.080 the last thing I want to leave you with before 0:07:15.200 --> 0:07:17.760 I start asking questions to my colleagues about the energy 0:07:17.800 --> 0:07:21.400 sector is just remember how things get done in Washington. 0:07:21.400 --> 0:07:26.080 There's largely three ways. The first is legislation. Now, look, legislation. 0:07:26.280 --> 0:07:29.040 The House Representative passes a bill, the Senate passes a bill. 0:07:29.080 --> 0:07:31.360 It has to be the identical bill. They come together, 0:07:31.600 --> 0:07:33.720 and then they send it to the President's desk. It 0:07:33.800 --> 0:07:36.680 doesn't happen all that much. The reason being is the 0:07:36.720 --> 0:07:39.960 Senate has something called the filbuster. It allows one senator 0:07:40.000 --> 0:07:45.040 to overturn or block, not overturn, block legislation unless sixty 0:07:45.080 --> 0:07:48.360 senators overturn him or her. Now, this is not written 0:07:48.400 --> 0:07:50.720 down in the Constitution. It's actually not written down anywhere. 0:07:50.760 --> 0:07:53.720 It's essentially sixty or sorry, two hundred and fifty years 0:07:54.200 --> 0:07:57.280 of best practice. And there has been some chatter about 0:07:57.280 --> 0:08:00.720 doing away with the philbuster. The philbuster for nominations, for example, 0:08:00.760 --> 0:08:03.760 doesn't exist anymore. We think the filibuster is going to remain, 0:08:04.080 --> 0:08:06.960 so we think legislation is going to be extremely difficult 0:08:07.000 --> 0:08:10.400 to come by. It will happen, but it's extremely difficult. 0:08:09.960 --> 0:08:10.360 To come by. 0:08:10.640 --> 0:08:14.160 With one exception. If the Republicans take the House, the Senate, 0:08:14.240 --> 0:08:16.720 and the presidency, you're going to hear me and other 0:08:16.800 --> 0:08:20.440 Washingtonians talk about the word called reconciliation. This is a 0:08:20.440 --> 0:08:22.880 budgetary maneuver where you can avoid the filibuster. 0:08:23.240 --> 0:08:23.840 You just need. 0:08:23.680 --> 0:08:26.800 A majority vote in the House, majority vote in the Senate, 0:08:26.840 --> 0:08:29.520 and the president's signature. This is how President Obama got 0:08:29.520 --> 0:08:32.040 Obamacare through, this is how President Trump got a Trump's 0:08:32.040 --> 0:08:34.160 tax cuts through, and this is how President Biden got 0:08:34.200 --> 0:08:37.080 the Inflication Reduction Act through. So the Republicans state the House, 0:08:37.120 --> 0:08:39.959 the Senate, and the Presidency look for another round of 0:08:40.200 --> 0:08:43.720 very robust tax debate next year and maybe multi trillion 0:08:43.760 --> 0:08:48.000 dollar tax packages through because they can essentially bypass democratic opposition. 0:08:48.679 --> 0:08:52.080 So that's legislation. The second is regulation. If you've been 0:08:52.120 --> 0:08:54.400 following Furk or you follow the Federal Reserve, you know 0:08:54.440 --> 0:08:59.079 what a proposal looks like, a proposed rule several hundred 0:08:59.120 --> 0:09:03.840 pages of industry impacting regulations. Now, regulators can put this 0:09:03.960 --> 0:09:07.040 out and they can essentially bypass the opposition party, and 0:09:07.080 --> 0:09:11.319 they can do what the president wants in terms of regulation. 0:09:11.600 --> 0:09:15.520 But a it takes time. Even a deregulatory effort by 0:09:15.520 --> 0:09:18.160 President Trump would take probably two to three years to 0:09:18.320 --> 0:09:22.640 begin to truly feel the impact in the sectors. And secondly, 0:09:22.720 --> 0:09:26.880 courts are becoming increasingly skeptical towards the power of regulators 0:09:26.920 --> 0:09:30.319 when it comes to new regulations. So if Kamala Harris wins, 0:09:30.679 --> 0:09:33.520 you're going to see courts continue to question whether or 0:09:33.559 --> 0:09:37.280 not those regulations actually are constitutional or not. We can 0:09:37.280 --> 0:09:38.760 certainly get into that in the Q and A if 0:09:38.760 --> 0:09:41.360 you'd like, but I'll just let you know it's becoming 0:09:41.440 --> 0:09:44.400 much more difficult and as a result, a lot of regulators, 0:09:44.440 --> 0:09:46.880 we think at a Kamala Harris presidency, would turn to 0:09:46.920 --> 0:09:50.800 the enforcement arm. And then finally is executive orders. Now, 0:09:50.960 --> 0:09:53.760 in my estimation, eighty five percent of executive orders are 0:09:53.800 --> 0:09:56.240 symbolic in nature. It's a fancy way of the president 0:09:56.280 --> 0:09:58.320 picking up the phone and saying to his or her staff, 0:09:58.559 --> 0:10:00.520 I want you to do something either the la legislative 0:10:00.600 --> 0:10:04.000 route or the regulatory route. But please remember that in 0:10:04.040 --> 0:10:07.280 that other fifteen percent, the power of the presidency is 0:10:07.320 --> 0:10:10.080 a lot more powerful when it comes to things like 0:10:10.160 --> 0:10:15.040 national security, foreign relations, trade, and tariffs. So if you're 0:10:15.080 --> 0:10:17.560 interested in comments and you think that there's a real 0:10:17.679 --> 0:10:20.880 risk or opportunity that comes with President Trump saying that 0:10:20.920 --> 0:10:22.840 I want to put sixty percent tariffs on all goods 0:10:22.840 --> 0:10:25.560 from China, this is something that he can do fairly 0:10:25.640 --> 0:10:30.840 early in his presidency and can essentially bypass Congress. Now, 0:10:31.320 --> 0:10:34.640 our just real brief thought on tariffs is that even 0:10:34.679 --> 0:10:37.240 if you see an executive order that comes out from 0:10:37.280 --> 0:10:39.720 President Trump, it says I'm going to put these tariffs 0:10:39.760 --> 0:10:43.199 in place, Please note that tariffs are viewed by presidents 0:10:43.240 --> 0:10:47.079 as negotiation tools when conducting foreign relations, and so you're 0:10:47.120 --> 0:10:49.560 not going to see an immediate tariff. You'll probably see 0:10:49.559 --> 0:10:52.320 the redline come across the Bloomberg terminal. There'll probably be 0:10:52.320 --> 0:10:55.600 a market reaction, but in the actual text of the 0:10:55.640 --> 0:10:58.840 executive order, you'll probably see language like this won't go 0:10:58.880 --> 0:11:01.360 into place into two except for two hundred and seventy 0:11:01.440 --> 0:11:03.840 days or three hundred and sixty five days unless the 0:11:03.880 --> 0:11:07.400 Treasury Department says this, or unless the Energy Department does that, 0:11:08.280 --> 0:11:12.319 because presidents also want to keep flexibility when they conduct negotiations. 0:11:12.600 --> 0:11:15.280 So just something to keep in mind as you hear 0:11:15.400 --> 0:11:18.400 kind candidates talk and as we talk about the energy 0:11:18.440 --> 0:11:22.360 sector today, just remember how does this fit into one 0:11:22.400 --> 0:11:25.480 of those three buckets? Okay, so let's go ahead and 0:11:25.480 --> 0:11:28.439 turn it over to the questions. First. I'm going to 0:11:28.520 --> 0:11:31.719 start with talent and just talking about the power of 0:11:31.760 --> 0:11:35.480 the presidency. Let's talk about the energy exports and the 0:11:35.600 --> 0:11:39.320 LNG pause. So, talent, what is the latest on the 0:11:39.320 --> 0:11:42.760 freeze on the LG export authorizations, What are some likely 0:11:42.800 --> 0:11:45.840 outcomes and who are the beneficiaries of the freeze and 0:11:45.880 --> 0:11:47.439 who does it hurt the most. 0:11:49.000 --> 0:11:52.400 Yeah, So, as most known, in January, the Biden administration 0:11:53.280 --> 0:11:57.960 put a moratorium on the Department of Energy's ability to 0:11:58.200 --> 0:12:02.160 issue export authorization to countries that lack free trade agreements 0:12:02.200 --> 0:12:04.240 with with the US. And the idea is to study 0:12:04.720 --> 0:12:08.720 and assess climate domestic energy prices. But really was it 0:12:08.720 --> 0:12:12.920 was a political move to play CAID activists. You know, 0:12:13.000 --> 0:12:15.680 we said from the beginning that in January that we 0:12:15.720 --> 0:12:18.960 don't expect anything to happen until the election and really 0:12:19.280 --> 0:12:22.200 the inauguration, and we're kind of on track for that. 0:12:23.040 --> 0:12:24.920 You know, in July there was a federal judge that 0:12:25.000 --> 0:12:28.840 overturned it, but unofficially it remains. There was a one 0:12:28.880 --> 0:12:32.280 off with New Fortress Energy. They have a small project 0:12:32.320 --> 0:12:36.959 in Mexico. They actually issued a five year expert authorization 0:12:37.120 --> 0:12:41.400 to non FTA countries instead of twenty five years. But 0:12:41.559 --> 0:12:43.319 you know it's in Mexico. It's one off. It was 0:12:43.360 --> 0:12:46.959 a way of saying like, okay, you know it was overturned. 0:12:48.000 --> 0:12:50.920 We're looking without really looking. So we still don't expect 0:12:51.000 --> 0:12:58.240 anything until really the inauguration the outcomes. So if you 0:12:58.320 --> 0:13:01.559 have if Harris wins, I don't think it's a permanent man. 0:13:01.840 --> 0:13:06.080 I think eventually the energy track will we'll keep moving. 0:13:06.160 --> 0:13:08.760 Some projects will move forward, but it will you know, 0:13:08.840 --> 0:13:12.640 inhibit some and I do expect some stricter emissions criteria 0:13:13.760 --> 0:13:16.880 and regulations. Obviously, if Trump wins, it's going to be 0:13:17.280 --> 0:13:19.839 a lot more favorable for LNG. I think one of 0:13:19.880 --> 0:13:22.960 the first things he does will be to stop the pause. 0:13:23.040 --> 0:13:26.440 I think will try to expedite some of those authorizations 0:13:26.679 --> 0:13:31.440 or extensions. But you know, I think ultimately even that 0:13:31.559 --> 0:13:33.240 it will take a few months to address. He has 0:13:33.280 --> 0:13:37.160 to get a new Energy secretary, maybe take a look 0:13:37.160 --> 0:13:41.280 at Ferk. The Energy Department's already understaff, so I think 0:13:41.320 --> 0:13:44.280 even that's going to continue to pressure the administration along 0:13:44.320 --> 0:13:48.240 with you know, activists appealing everything. So the bottom line 0:13:48.280 --> 0:13:50.719 is we're looking at delays of over a year and 0:13:51.040 --> 0:13:54.559 higher costs for many of these projects regardless of who 0:13:54.600 --> 0:13:57.280 comes in. But ultimately Trump would be more favorable for 0:13:58.000 --> 0:14:02.320 LERG and beneficiaries and you know winners and losers of this. 0:14:02.360 --> 0:14:04.760 So who are the beneficiaries? The first thing that comes 0:14:04.760 --> 0:14:10.360 to mind are the international exporters and competitors through most 0:14:10.520 --> 0:14:14.040 mostly through three q this year of LNG contract signed 0:14:14.080 --> 0:14:17.720 firm or tentative, the US comprised about twenty three percent, 0:14:18.400 --> 0:14:21.120 but that compares to forty three percent last year, so 0:14:21.160 --> 0:14:24.720 it just goes to show that there's less interest. And 0:14:25.120 --> 0:14:27.880 the majority of that twenty three percent were tentative deals, 0:14:27.920 --> 0:14:30.640 not firm deals. So you still have to you know 0:14:30.680 --> 0:14:32.560 that those are heads of agreement that you would have 0:14:32.600 --> 0:14:36.720 to turn into a sale and purchase agreement. So obviously 0:14:37.400 --> 0:14:43.320 when I say international competitors Qatar, Oman UAE, we saw 0:14:43.400 --> 0:14:46.560 a final investment decision taken on a UAE project this year. 0:14:47.200 --> 0:14:50.280 Other beneficiaries Mexico and Canada, they have that advantage the 0:14:50.280 --> 0:14:54.160 don't have to go through the Panama Canal. See more 0:14:54.200 --> 0:14:59.520 contracts signed with them as well. Other beneficiaries US projects 0:14:59.520 --> 0:15:03.080 that are already operational. If it comes to it, the 0:15:03.120 --> 0:15:08.200 scarcity value of those assets right, but also de bottlenecking 0:15:08.400 --> 0:15:11.720 is an opportunity for growth without going through the extremely 0:15:11.800 --> 0:15:16.120 lengthy regulatory process. So for example, Shaner, the nameplate capacity 0:15:16.160 --> 0:15:17.560 of each of their trains was four and a half 0:15:17.600 --> 0:15:20.520 million tons. They've already found a way to extend that 0:15:20.560 --> 0:15:24.560 to five point one million tons a year, so you know, 0:15:24.640 --> 0:15:28.760 other projects could do that. I say this with a caveat, 0:15:28.560 --> 0:15:34.320 but proposed projects with that already have export authorizations to 0:15:34.360 --> 0:15:37.760 non FDA countries. They have a leg up on projects 0:15:37.760 --> 0:15:40.640 that don't, obviously, But at the same time, many of 0:15:40.680 --> 0:15:45.040 those expire in twenty twenty six, twenty twenty seven, and 0:15:45.120 --> 0:15:47.920 it takes four years to build a project, so you know, 0:15:48.000 --> 0:15:51.120 naturally you're going to many of these projects are waiting 0:15:51.160 --> 0:15:54.200 for more clarification. They don't want to invest billions take 0:15:54.200 --> 0:15:57.280 a final investment decision without an extension, so probably won't 0:15:57.320 --> 0:16:02.080 see those decisions until after the inaugura is age inauguration 0:16:03.840 --> 0:16:06.800 losers of this, you know, I just said it. Obviously, 0:16:06.880 --> 0:16:09.800 the proposed projects with with that lack the non FTA 0:16:09.960 --> 0:16:14.520 export authorizations, you're already behind. Even if they do eventually 0:16:14.600 --> 0:16:17.120 get one, they may be so far behind with other 0:16:17.200 --> 0:16:20.680 projects in the US or globally that are moving forward, 0:16:20.720 --> 0:16:23.960 and there's a lack of demand there because realistically not 0:16:24.040 --> 0:16:25.960 all these projects are going to get built anyway, and 0:16:26.000 --> 0:16:30.160 I think that this freeze reduces that that number even further. 0:16:30.840 --> 0:16:33.720 And another loser of this is is the US's reputation 0:16:33.840 --> 0:16:39.040 as a reliable LNG provider. You know, financial backers could 0:16:39.080 --> 0:16:43.880 become hesitant counterparties, maybe even trying to get out of 0:16:43.880 --> 0:16:47.520 of certain contracts. And realistically a lot of this we've 0:16:47.520 --> 0:16:49.760 seen it with the contracts signed this year. You're pushing 0:16:50.760 --> 0:16:53.200 demand and opportunities to other countries, and you could push 0:16:53.240 --> 0:16:56.800 it the countries that don't support your agenda, like Russia. 0:16:56.920 --> 0:17:00.240 So definitely, the US's reputation is so right. 0:17:01.560 --> 0:17:04.960 You know, you mentioned you know, you mentioned the courts earlier, 0:17:05.680 --> 0:17:08.680 and so one of the questions that we have is 0:17:08.680 --> 0:17:13.119 is that, you know, the Biden administration's freeze isn't just 0:17:13.160 --> 0:17:16.679 a risk to US liquid natural gas, but what about 0:17:16.720 --> 0:17:20.720 the DC Appeals Court overturning the Furk approvals of those 0:17:20.720 --> 0:17:24.120 two LNG projects, And how does it impact your outlook? 0:17:24.240 --> 0:17:25.679 And you know, I would just say to those of 0:17:25.720 --> 0:17:29.600 you who are listening right now, the courts are changing 0:17:29.680 --> 0:17:32.320 fairly quickly in the United States, and so this is 0:17:32.359 --> 0:17:34.920 an area that I think is really important especially if 0:17:34.920 --> 0:17:38.160 you're not in in the US, just to understand, because 0:17:38.200 --> 0:17:40.600 the courts are beginning because of what's known as the 0:17:40.680 --> 0:17:43.879 Chevron Difference and major questions doctrine, courts are going to 0:17:43.920 --> 0:17:49.080 be increasingly involved in regulations. So just that being sided telling, 0:17:49.160 --> 0:17:50.719 can you just give your thoughts on what's happening over 0:17:50.760 --> 0:17:51.680 the DC Appeals Court. 0:17:52.960 --> 0:17:55.640 Yeah, what's going on with the appeals court is it's 0:17:55.640 --> 0:17:58.920 a slippery slope and it's it's unprecedented. I think activists 0:17:58.920 --> 0:18:01.240 and environmentalists kind of found a loophole in a way 0:18:01.280 --> 0:18:04.760 to get some wins and it's it's really empowered them 0:18:04.800 --> 0:18:07.400 and I think other projects may suffer the same fate. 0:18:07.520 --> 0:18:12.360 So what happened was two lergy projects next decades, Rio 0:18:12.440 --> 0:18:15.760 Grande and Texas Energy, both in Brownsville. They had their 0:18:15.800 --> 0:18:23.400 first certificate overturned on on environmental grounds. Also, Commonwealth Energy 0:18:24.240 --> 0:18:26.920 had it not it's not as extreme as what happened 0:18:26.920 --> 0:18:29.200 with the other two projects, but they had THEIRS sent 0:18:29.320 --> 0:18:33.440 back to them to reassess also the climate impact of Commonwealth. 0:18:34.160 --> 0:18:37.640 And then Williams had the trans Co Expansion project regional 0:18:37.840 --> 0:18:41.720 energy access up in the Northeast. They had their FIRK 0:18:41.800 --> 0:18:45.680 certificate overturned as well, so they're dealing with a similar, 0:18:46.240 --> 0:18:50.800 similar issue. It's all on environmental grounds and essentially, you know, 0:18:50.840 --> 0:18:55.000 if we use next decade as a as a case study, 0:18:55.040 --> 0:18:57.239 you know, they had to they recently just submitted an 0:18:57.280 --> 0:19:00.680 appeal and they can continue construction their in the appeals 0:19:00.720 --> 0:19:03.080 process and make take months. It could take a year. 0:19:04.400 --> 0:19:08.080 There's a decent chance that the appeal is denied and 0:19:08.119 --> 0:19:10.720 then it could go to the Supreme Court. It could 0:19:10.720 --> 0:19:13.320 take years. But this is a project, you know, it's 0:19:13.359 --> 0:19:16.440 alarming for for other projects. What is this to stop 0:19:16.480 --> 0:19:19.879 from other other projects even that have crossed those lines 0:19:19.880 --> 0:19:23.400 and are under construction to be halted. So this one 0:19:23.440 --> 0:19:27.080 will be following very closely. You know, if if construction 0:19:27.200 --> 0:19:31.080 is halted, it could be devastating. I could hurt other projects. 0:19:31.200 --> 0:19:34.320 Venture Global CP two project has a has a target 0:19:34.320 --> 0:19:39.040 on its back. I wouldn't be surprised if that suffered 0:19:39.600 --> 0:19:43.119 a similar fate as the other two. So you know, 0:19:43.480 --> 0:19:46.240 Rio Grand has to go undergo. They have to submit 0:19:46.280 --> 0:19:50.320 a new environmental impact study, a new public comment period, 0:19:51.000 --> 0:19:53.000 so they have to jump through all these hoops that 0:19:53.040 --> 0:19:58.879 they've you know, to keep the project going. But again 0:19:59.080 --> 0:20:01.640 it just it. It's a lot of risk on all 0:20:01.880 --> 0:20:06.399 energy infrastructure projects. So whether it's permitting reform or just 0:20:06.600 --> 0:20:10.919 tightening up and giving clarity to the industry in general 0:20:10.960 --> 0:20:14.159 as to you know, at what point does a permit 0:20:14.200 --> 0:20:17.040 become unappealable? You know, we have to speed up the process. 0:20:17.720 --> 0:20:20.840 When can it not no longer be challenged? Because this 0:20:20.920 --> 0:20:23.560 is this is definitely a significant issue, and I'm not sure, 0:20:24.400 --> 0:20:27.480 you know, I think Trump, if he was elected, would 0:20:27.520 --> 0:20:31.720 put more energy into addressing this. But regardless of who 0:20:31.880 --> 0:20:34.200 gets in, I'm you know, this is an important topic 0:20:34.200 --> 0:20:35.159 that has to be fixed. 0:20:35.600 --> 0:20:37.920 So one my last question I have for you is 0:20:38.280 --> 0:20:41.200 this is a little bit more about midstream and energy infrastructure. 0:20:41.680 --> 0:20:45.000 How would how does your outlook for that piece look 0:20:45.480 --> 0:20:48.399 under a Harris administration versus a Trump administration? 0:20:50.080 --> 0:20:52.520 Yeah, I will you and I have spoken about this 0:20:52.600 --> 0:20:54.840 previously at a at a high level, and I'll defer 0:20:54.920 --> 0:20:57.919 to some of my colleagues. I think ultimately whoever wins 0:20:57.960 --> 0:21:02.680 doesn't in fact impact production too much oil and gas production. 0:21:02.840 --> 0:21:07.720 But this LNG, you know, the freeze, the appeals court, 0:21:07.760 --> 0:21:11.520 everything affecting that is. This election is is big because 0:21:11.600 --> 0:21:17.200 if Trump is is elected, then I think he you know, again, 0:21:17.280 --> 0:21:21.760 puts a lot of energy into dialing back the freeze, 0:21:21.880 --> 0:21:24.359 basically getting rid of it and trying to expedite you know, 0:21:24.480 --> 0:21:30.240 export authorizations and getting these projects to move forward. Whereas Harris, 0:21:30.880 --> 0:21:35.320 I think ultimately there's results, but more strict criteria. So 0:21:35.320 --> 0:21:38.520 that's the LNG issue right as far as midstream, it's 0:21:38.560 --> 0:21:42.919 just a lot of there's a regulatory red tape. I 0:21:42.960 --> 0:21:46.040 think if Trump wins, he's going to try to deregulate. 0:21:46.119 --> 0:21:51.240 He may get some wins on you know, lightening up 0:21:52.040 --> 0:21:57.480 like making air emissions quality you know, less impactful to 0:21:57.560 --> 0:22:02.359 this sector, speeding up omitting, things like that, but something 0:22:02.400 --> 0:22:06.560 that significantly moves the needle I don't foresee. You know, 0:22:06.640 --> 0:22:09.960 Texas and Louisiana are the most friendly jurisdictions, and luckily 0:22:10.000 --> 0:22:13.679 for the sector, that's where LNG exports and exports in 0:22:13.720 --> 0:22:18.679 general are are mostly you know concentrated. But you have Appalachia, 0:22:18.720 --> 0:22:21.760 for example, where there's a ton of gas and you know, 0:22:22.119 --> 0:22:24.240 you just can't build infrastructure there to get it out, 0:22:24.240 --> 0:22:27.080 So it's gonna limit growth there. It's gonna limit expansion 0:22:27.200 --> 0:22:30.320 of of the MP's, which I'm sure Vince will talk 0:22:30.359 --> 0:22:33.560