WEBVTT - Bloomberg Surveillance TV: January 22nd, 2026

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.

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<v Speaker 2>This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along

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<v Speaker 2>with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordern. Join us each day

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<v Speaker 2>Terminal and the Bloomberg Business App. Joining us is the

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<v Speaker 2>US Energy Secretary, Chris Right, Secretary Right, Good days you, sir,

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<v Speaker 2>Good to see you.

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<v Speaker 3>Thanks for having you.

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<v Speaker 2>Get to skip the line when you come in, of

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<v Speaker 2>course we do, missus Secretary, first time in Davos. What

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<v Speaker 2>was your impression of the World Economic Forum.

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<v Speaker 4>Oh, it's fantastic to see leaders, political leaders, business leaders

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<v Speaker 4>from all around the world gathering here for very candid dialogues.

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<v Speaker 3>I've enjoyed it very much.

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<v Speaker 2>There's a worry, and I'd love your reaction to this.

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<v Speaker 2>A worry to the President's style. Yes, it generates results,

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<v Speaker 2>but it's also turning off the Europeans. Did you feel

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<v Speaker 2>that in your conversations with European pounders that they were

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<v Speaker 2>offended by the last week.

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<v Speaker 4>I did engage in dialogues about that, and I think

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<v Speaker 4>the rhetoric or the speculation was so over the top.

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<v Speaker 4>It's going to be the end of NATO. The US

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<v Speaker 4>military is going to invade Greenland. These were never on

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<v Speaker 4>the table. The President since his arrival in office, has

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<v Speaker 4>been how to strengthen NATO, how to get increased defense spending,

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<v Speaker 4>how to get increased trade and cooperation between our countries.

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<v Speaker 3>So he's here to strengthen.

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<v Speaker 4>NATO, increase the security we have against the foes that

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<v Speaker 4>are rising in the world. Yes, he has a different

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<v Speaker 4>negotiating style and he gets different results. I just came

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<v Speaker 4>from the peace in the Middle East event, like the

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<v Speaker 4>conventional approaches don't deliver unconventional results. President Trump's about delivering results,

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<v Speaker 4>and yeah, that's a different style.

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<v Speaker 1>The speech has been about self resilience, and that's been

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<v Speaker 1>very much the tone coming.

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<v Speaker 5>Out of the White House, the idea that every.

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<v Speaker 1>Nation needs to look at what it has and really

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<v Speaker 1>build that up. And that's one reason why the focus

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<v Speaker 1>has been on oil. I just wonder do you feel

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<v Speaker 1>like prices where they're at are supporting the US shail

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<v Speaker 1>industry that usually operates at a higher price point. Do

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<v Speaker 1>you think that this push to produce more oil is

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<v Speaker 1>actually harming the US shail industry.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, First of all, though, president has one constituency, and

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<v Speaker 4>that's the American consumer.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, businesses have to compete to be the best

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<v Speaker 3>supplier to consumers.

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<v Speaker 4>But at the end of the day, the point of

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<v Speaker 4>a free market isn't to help or protect businesses.

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<v Speaker 3>It's to serve consumers better.

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<v Speaker 4>And I remember ten years ago the shale company struggled

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<v Speaker 4>because oil came down to eighty dollars and before it

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<v Speaker 4>was one hundred dollars, and their profitability wasn't great. They've

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<v Speaker 4>continued to innovate, continued to drive down breakdown prices.

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<v Speaker 3>US oil production is.

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<v Speaker 4>At a record high right now, as is natural gas production.

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<v Speaker 3>Do they have to.

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<v Speaker 4>Continue to innovate and drive down costs? Of course so,

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<v Speaker 4>but that's what American business does.

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<v Speaker 1>At what point, though, does some of the oil, say

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<v Speaker 1>from Venezuela, start to cannibalize from what the US is

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<v Speaker 1>producing at home. Something that some people are worried about,

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<v Speaker 1>whether it takes up space at refiners, or whether it

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<v Speaker 1>just lowers prices in general at a time where they're

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<v Speaker 1>already struggling to innovate fast enough to keep up.

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<v Speaker 5>With where prices are.

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<v Speaker 4>It's a challenge, but I would I would never underestimate

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<v Speaker 4>the American oil and gas business or Americans across the sectors,

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<v Speaker 4>so I don't worry so much about that.

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<v Speaker 3>And of course it's a.

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<v Speaker 4>Different kind of crude that comes out of Venezuela, and

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<v Speaker 4>a lot of our refineries were built to refine this heavier,

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<v Speaker 4>more viscous crude. We produce that light suite crude in

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<v Speaker 4>the United States. It's a good combination. But when you

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<v Speaker 4>have lower energy prices, you also have faster economic growth,

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<v Speaker 4>which means faster demand growth.

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<v Speaker 3>There's always feedback effects.

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<v Speaker 6>Here.

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<v Speaker 3>We're going to see.

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<v Speaker 4>Faster not just US growth, but global growth because of

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<v Speaker 4>lower global energy prices. One of my messages here in

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<v Speaker 4>Davos talking to the European nations, the EU was a

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<v Speaker 4>similar size economy to the United States.

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<v Speaker 3>In twenty ten.

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<v Speaker 4>They pivoted focused on climate change, for got what energy

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<v Speaker 4>is used for, and they've had.

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<v Speaker 3>Very little economic growth.

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<v Speaker 4>We were both twenty five percent of global consumption just

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<v Speaker 4>in twenty ten. Today the US is twenty eight percent

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<v Speaker 4>and the EU nations are eighteen percent. That's the cost

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<v Speaker 4>of expensive energy policies. And what we want to see

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<v Speaker 4>is Europe reinvigorated. Europe to embrace lower energy prices, reindustrialize

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<v Speaker 4>their economy and therefore be a stronger economic and military

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<v Speaker 4>partner with the US.

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<v Speaker 7>Well, they outsourced their energy to Russia potentially, that's why

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<v Speaker 7>we are seeing these exports out of the United States.

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<v Speaker 7>When it comes to Venezuela, though, do you have planned

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<v Speaker 7>to go down there, maybe even lead a delegation of

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<v Speaker 7>oil executives.

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<v Speaker 3>I'll go down to venezuel and the relative in your future.

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<v Speaker 4>I'll get down in the next few weeks, all go

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<v Speaker 4>down to meet with government officials and look at the

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<v Speaker 4>existing oil facilities down there. We will definitely see a

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<v Speaker 4>number of American oil and gas companies going down as

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<v Speaker 4>well and investigating opportunities on the ground.

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<v Speaker 7>Who are going to be going down with I imagine you're

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<v Speaker 7>on speed dial and have constant conversations with Mike Worth

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<v Speaker 7>you over Chevron.

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<v Speaker 5>But is it Darren.

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<v Speaker 7>Woods potentially feeling a little bit better, He did call

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<v Speaker 7>it uninvestible Venezuela when he met with the president recently.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, that's a backward looking comment, right, because of course

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<v Speaker 4>for ten fifteen years it.

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<v Speaker 3>Has been uninvestable.

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<v Speaker 4>So this is about looking forward about where we're going

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<v Speaker 4>and who are the early movers going to be in

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<v Speaker 4>an environment that's better today than it was a month ago.

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<v Speaker 4>But is it fully rule of law, democratic, thriving society again,

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<v Speaker 4>of course not. This is a process only three weeks

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<v Speaker 4>into it, so that you're going to see increased production

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<v Speaker 4>out of Venezuela, first from the incumbent players like Chevron,

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<v Speaker 4>and then from the new smaller, scrappier American independence that'll go.

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<v Speaker 5>Wildcatters are the ones that are reaching out to you.

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<v Speaker 4>Yes, across the board, bigger companies too, but the faster

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<v Speaker 4>movers will be.

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<v Speaker 7>The wild and you plan on giving them these fresh

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<v Speaker 7>licenses so if they do feel like they have the

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<v Speaker 7>security concerns and it's good to go in Venezuela, that

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<v Speaker 7>they could start.

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<v Speaker 3>Absolutely, they will start.

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<v Speaker 4>Yes, we will move o FAC approvals for anyone that

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<v Speaker 4>wants to go down there. We're going to let the

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<v Speaker 4>marketplace decide that I'm not going to choose or pick

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<v Speaker 4>among companies but we're going to certainly open up that

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<v Speaker 4>opportunities together with the interim.

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<v Speaker 3>Authorities in Venezuela.

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<v Speaker 4>Right now, we're going to open up the opportunities to

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<v Speaker 4>grow oil.

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<v Speaker 3>Production in Venezuela. Now for America, good for Venezuela.

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<v Speaker 2>Not chosing them picking is an interesting one because we

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<v Speaker 2>have seen the administration choose and pick certain companies to

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<v Speaker 2>develop things.

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<v Speaker 8>Why is this a different moment?

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<v Speaker 4>Well, good look to do things short and quick, to

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<v Speaker 4>immediately market the crude out of Venezuela and get money

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<v Speaker 4>flowing as fast as possible.

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<v Speaker 3>You've got to make choices.

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<v Speaker 4>Then, so immediately, when you have an immediate objective, you've

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<v Speaker 4>got to make decisions. But ultimately, we want capitalism in

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<v Speaker 4>the marketplace to decide who the operators are, who the

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<v Speaker 4>marketers of the crud are, and what the future of

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<v Speaker 4>the industry is going to be in Venezuela.

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<v Speaker 5>What's the ultimate goal?

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<v Speaker 1>Is the ultimate goal to take share away from say

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<v Speaker 1>the Middle Eastern Russia. Is the goal to lower prices

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<v Speaker 1>below fifty dollars a barrel? What's the ultimate goal with

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<v Speaker 1>the United States involvement in Venezuela's oil industry, Well.

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<v Speaker 4>The ultimate goal was to stabilize our hemisphere, to reduce

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<v Speaker 4>the running of drugs and guns and criminality. Venezuela's basically

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<v Speaker 4>become a big drug, big drug criminal organization with Hez

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<v Speaker 4>Bowl as Western Hemisphere headquarters there, Russia, Iron Cuba. So

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<v Speaker 4>the goal of Venezuela was geostrategic to have it as safe, peaceful,

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<v Speaker 4>prosperous ally of the United States as it was for decades.

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<v Speaker 4>And as part of that, the tremendous resources Venezuela has

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<v Speaker 4>in oil, for sure, that's going to be a large

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<v Speaker 4>part of their economy growing and all that, and is

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<v Speaker 4>more Western hemisphere oil production. Good for the United States

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<v Speaker 4>and good for the Western hemisphere, sure, but it's good

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<v Speaker 4>for the whole world.

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<v Speaker 5>Saraharra, do you think you can work with Delsea Rodriguez?

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<v Speaker 3>We are today, We absolutely are today.

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<v Speaker 5>You'll meet her when you go there.

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<v Speaker 3>I certainly will.

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<v Speaker 7>Because she was their oil minister. And Jonathan asked me

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<v Speaker 7>this when Nicholas Madora was captured.

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<v Speaker 5>I used to cover opak. Does the United States basically

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<v Speaker 5>have a seat at the table when it comes to

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<v Speaker 5>the cartel?

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<v Speaker 3>The cartel in Opak, Yeah, because.

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<v Speaker 7>Basically you have this pragmatic approach to Delsea Rodriguez. You're

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<v Speaker 7>bringing in the energy companies into Venezuela, and Venezuela is

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<v Speaker 7>part of OPAK.

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<v Speaker 4>I hadn't even thought about that, But of course we're

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<v Speaker 4>not looking for a seat at the table at OPAK.

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<v Speaker 4>Of course, the United States produces more oil today than

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<v Speaker 4>Saudi Arabia and Russia, the two biggest other producers of oil.

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<v Speaker 4>So I think we're quite comfortable with where we sit.

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<v Speaker 4>We just want a stable, prosperous Venezuela to be good

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<v Speaker 4>for the United States, good for the Western Hemisphere, and

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<v Speaker 4>good for Venezuela.

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<v Speaker 8>So that's tight.

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<v Speaker 2>The answer that Amory gave me when I asked that

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<v Speaker 2>question to her, i'm Rey turned around and said, they

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<v Speaker 2>already have one as Saudi Arabia. Yeah, and they can

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<v Speaker 2>lean on the Saudi's to get what they want.

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<v Speaker 8>Is that fair? Do you have enough influence on accounts?

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<v Speaker 3>Homy? We don't lean on them to get what we want.

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<v Speaker 4>But unlike the Biden administration, of course, we've embraced the

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<v Speaker 4>growing economies, the growing freedom in the Middle East. The

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<v Speaker 4>goal is to have a peaceful, prosperous Middle East and

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<v Speaker 4>not a conflict ridden you know, it's about bullets and

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<v Speaker 4>shooting people and who hates each other.

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<v Speaker 3>We want to make it free and prosperous.

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<v Speaker 7>Well, do you remember the first term when they're or

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<v Speaker 7>is that price war? Prices went to negative on WTI

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<v Speaker 7>and the President picked up the phone, this was his

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<v Speaker 7>first term at forty five, called President Putin and called

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<v Speaker 7>the Crown Prince Muhammed bin Salman. That's why I always

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<v Speaker 7>say the US has a seat at the table. The

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<v Speaker 7>President does seem to want to work in the energy space.

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<v Speaker 4>He understands the criticality of energy and of course during

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<v Speaker 4>COVID in emergency situations, you want a strong, resolute business

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<v Speaker 4>focus leader.

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<v Speaker 2>Can I finish on security guarantees in Venezuela? I think

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<v Speaker 2>it's importen. Can we offer security guarantees of these companies

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<v Speaker 2>that aren't going to develop those reserves now?

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<v Speaker 3>We have no plans to do that.

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<v Speaker 4>The US involvement right now and controlling the flow of

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<v Speaker 4>funds in Venezuela gives us huge leverage to reduce the

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<v Speaker 4>criminality in that country, re establish peace and better business

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<v Speaker 4>conditions in the short term. In the long run, you've

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<v Speaker 4>got to go all the way to a representative government,

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<v Speaker 4>a rewriting of laws and the constitution.

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<v Speaker 3>But that will take time.

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<v Speaker 4>But no, the activity we're doing is moving the security

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<v Speaker 4>situation in a positive direction. But we are not going

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<v Speaker 4>to get involved in providing on the ground security for

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<v Speaker 4>people in Venezuela. Oil and gas companies operate all around

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<v Speaker 4>the world in all different settings.

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<v Speaker 3>They're well versed in those challenges.

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<v Speaker 2>You understand why some companies might have reservations about coming

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<v Speaker 2>in because that wonder what comes off to President Trump

0:10:16.000 --> 0:10:18.760
<v Speaker 2>and whether the next administration will have that same commitment

0:10:19.040 --> 0:10:20.480
<v Speaker 2>that you have to that country.

0:10:20.840 --> 0:10:24.680
<v Speaker 4>Of course, it's an evolving environment. This is not for everyone.

0:10:24.720 --> 0:10:27.880
<v Speaker 4>There's always different risk and reward situations at time, which

0:10:27.880 --> 0:10:31.640
<v Speaker 4>is why the wildcatters will move first. The bigger longer

0:10:31.760 --> 0:10:34.200
<v Speaker 4>term you know, tens of billions in dollar investments. They're

0:10:34.200 --> 0:10:36.360
<v Speaker 4>going to wait till there's more clarity in that environment.

0:10:36.559 --> 0:10:39.280
<v Speaker 4>But fortunately with Chevron there, with Repsol there, with e

0:10:39.440 --> 0:10:42.280
<v Speaker 4>and I there, with Shell right next door, we already

0:10:42.360 --> 0:10:45.760
<v Speaker 4>have big incumbent players that are ready to grow their investments.

0:10:46.720 --> 0:10:50.200
<v Speaker 2>Stay with US, multile IMPEG. Savandan's coming up off to this.

0:11:00.000 --> 0:11:02.480
<v Speaker 2>It's the lightest this morning. The President of the United States,

0:11:02.480 --> 0:11:04.920
<v Speaker 2>Donald Trump canceling European tariffs that were sent to begin

0:11:05.000 --> 0:11:08.640
<v Speaker 2>February first. After reaching a framework deal over Greenland. The

0:11:08.720 --> 0:11:11.960
<v Speaker 2>US COMMAS secretary Howard Latnik joined us. Now making some

0:11:12.080 --> 0:11:13.840
<v Speaker 2>waves of the World Economic Forum over the.

0:11:13.840 --> 0:11:15.480
<v Speaker 8>Last couple of days. Mister secretary is going.

0:11:15.400 --> 0:11:15.719
<v Speaker 3>To see you.

0:11:15.840 --> 0:11:16.439
<v Speaker 6>Great to see you.

0:11:16.559 --> 0:11:18.440
<v Speaker 2>Let's cut through the drama. Let's get to the big

0:11:18.440 --> 0:11:20.680
<v Speaker 2>point in the elephant of the room. What happened at

0:11:20.720 --> 0:11:23.160
<v Speaker 2>dinner time the other night. I've heard all kinds of

0:11:23.240 --> 0:11:26.080
<v Speaker 2>stories booming, the guards storming at the room.

0:11:26.200 --> 0:11:26.720
<v Speaker 8>What happens?

0:11:26.840 --> 0:11:29.040
<v Speaker 9>Oh, this is so silly. So at the end of

0:11:29.080 --> 0:11:31.800
<v Speaker 9>the evening they called on me. I just published an

0:11:31.840 --> 0:11:35.320
<v Speaker 9>op ed in the Financial Times, and so they called

0:11:35.360 --> 0:11:38.880
<v Speaker 9>on me. I gave two three minutes of my ft,

0:11:39.960 --> 0:11:45.079
<v Speaker 9>which basically said that globalization right and the outsourcing of

0:11:45.120 --> 0:11:48.360
<v Speaker 9>your industry to the lowest cost in the world right,

0:11:48.480 --> 0:11:52.000
<v Speaker 9>had really left, had really harmed American, had harmed Europe,

0:11:52.240 --> 0:11:55.000
<v Speaker 9>and it had failed, it had failed us, and that

0:11:55.080 --> 0:11:57.040
<v Speaker 9>we need to reasure, need to take care of our

0:11:57.080 --> 0:11:57.840
<v Speaker 9>own citizens.

0:11:58.000 --> 0:12:00.360
<v Speaker 6>So that's basically the model. And were I was.

0:12:00.320 --> 0:12:04.480
<v Speaker 9>Done with that two or three minutes, one person of

0:12:04.520 --> 0:12:07.680
<v Speaker 9>the two hundred odd people in the room booed, and

0:12:07.880 --> 0:12:11.840
<v Speaker 9>I felt honored because it was Al Gore on alcore Bood,

0:12:12.160 --> 0:12:12.800
<v Speaker 9>and I was like.

0:12:13.040 --> 0:12:17.400
<v Speaker 2>Really, I wasn't throwing bread rolls at you from the bank.

0:12:17.480 --> 0:12:18.120
<v Speaker 2>That wasn't happening.

0:12:19.000 --> 0:12:20.679
<v Speaker 6>Put it, I put it in the ft. I mean,

0:12:20.960 --> 0:12:22.760
<v Speaker 6>I wasn't like trying to be quiet about it.

0:12:22.800 --> 0:12:27.080
<v Speaker 9>I mean I think that globalization, right, and the idea

0:12:27.200 --> 0:12:31.240
<v Speaker 9>of global supply chains and finding the lowest cost, I mean,

0:12:31.280 --> 0:12:33.560
<v Speaker 9>that is just not the way to take care of

0:12:33.600 --> 0:12:37.360
<v Speaker 9>your auto workers, right who are in Ohio and Michigan.

0:12:37.800 --> 0:12:40.560
<v Speaker 9>And so we're bringing that back. So think about this.

0:12:40.960 --> 0:12:43.120
<v Speaker 9>When we were done with we started auto tariffs. We

0:12:43.160 --> 0:12:45.959
<v Speaker 9>started working on it in March, and we finished in November,

0:12:46.240 --> 0:12:47.040
<v Speaker 9>and we were done.

0:12:47.080 --> 0:12:47.640
<v Speaker 6>The last day.

0:12:47.640 --> 0:12:51.160
<v Speaker 9>When we finished, General Motives and Ford stocks each went

0:12:51.240 --> 0:12:54.680
<v Speaker 9>up ten percent. General Motors ended the year of sixty percent.

0:12:54.679 --> 0:12:57.880
<v Speaker 9>If I told you on January first that General Motives

0:12:57.920 --> 0:12:59.400
<v Speaker 9>was going to be on sixty percent, you would all

0:12:59.400 --> 0:13:02.040
<v Speaker 9>sit out stock And how about this? On that same day,

0:13:02.679 --> 0:13:06.040
<v Speaker 9>Sean Fame, who runs the United Auto Workers, called me

0:13:06.080 --> 0:13:09.760
<v Speaker 9>and said, I can't believe I'm calling a Republican Secretary

0:13:09.760 --> 0:13:13.199
<v Speaker 9>of Commerce to say thank God for you and your administration.

0:13:13.679 --> 0:13:16.840
<v Speaker 9>The first administration is actually taking care of the auto

0:13:16.960 --> 0:13:18.000
<v Speaker 9>workers of America.

0:13:18.080 --> 0:13:18.800
<v Speaker 6>So think about that.

0:13:18.840 --> 0:13:22.160
<v Speaker 9>You can, if you really think it through, you can

0:13:22.200 --> 0:13:25.360
<v Speaker 9>take care of the company and the worker. You don't

0:13:25.400 --> 0:13:29.679
<v Speaker 9>have to pick sides because we want union labor growth

0:13:29.720 --> 0:13:30.240
<v Speaker 9>in America.

0:13:30.280 --> 0:13:33.360
<v Speaker 6>These are great jobs. Why wouldn't we want them in America.

0:13:33.440 --> 0:13:37.199
<v Speaker 9>So that's why Donald Trump wins the union vote, because

0:13:37.200 --> 0:13:40.720
<v Speaker 9>he's actually pro these workers.

0:13:40.760 --> 0:13:42.439
<v Speaker 6>He literally is pro these workers.

0:13:42.559 --> 0:13:45.200
<v Speaker 9>It's not a political thing, it's these are great jobs

0:13:45.200 --> 0:13:45.880
<v Speaker 9>for Americans.

0:13:46.080 --> 0:13:47.040
<v Speaker 6>Let's go get more of them.

0:13:47.080 --> 0:13:48.439
<v Speaker 2>There's a lot of money set to come into the

0:13:48.520 --> 0:13:50.840
<v Speaker 2>United States and big bets, a ton of FDM. We

0:13:50.840 --> 0:13:52.240
<v Speaker 2>could get into that in just a moment. I just

0:13:52.280 --> 0:13:55.240
<v Speaker 2>want to stay on G seven, allies. This week's been

0:13:55.280 --> 0:13:58.120
<v Speaker 2>quite a week. Emmanuel Macron, the French president, has said

0:13:58.480 --> 0:14:01.520
<v Speaker 2>basically accusing the US of trying to subordinate the Europeans.

0:14:01.880 --> 0:14:04.120
<v Speaker 2>The Prime Minister of Canada, I'm sure you heard his speech,

0:14:04.160 --> 0:14:06.880
<v Speaker 2>Mark Candy other day, said this is not a transition,

0:14:07.400 --> 0:14:10.199
<v Speaker 2>it's a rupture. How would you describe relations with those

0:14:10.240 --> 0:14:11.120
<v Speaker 2>countries at the moment.

0:14:11.640 --> 0:14:16.240
<v Speaker 9>I think our relations are perfectly fine, right. I described

0:14:16.640 --> 0:14:20.440
<v Speaker 9>the relationship with respect to the whole when Greenland was

0:14:20.440 --> 0:14:22.880
<v Speaker 9>going back and forth before we sort of settled it

0:14:22.920 --> 0:14:26.840
<v Speaker 9>with a framework agreement, Right, I called it a kerf fluffle. Right.

0:14:26.880 --> 0:14:29.640
<v Speaker 9>It's basically like if you have an argument with your

0:14:29.680 --> 0:14:31.560
<v Speaker 9>spouse that's not real.

0:14:31.800 --> 0:14:33.280
<v Speaker 6>You know, it's not a real one. It's like a

0:14:33.320 --> 0:14:33.880
<v Speaker 6>small thing.

0:14:33.920 --> 0:14:35.760
<v Speaker 2>My spouse doesn't go out there and deliver a speech

0:14:35.760 --> 0:14:36.640
<v Speaker 2>after that argument.

0:14:37.120 --> 0:14:38.239
<v Speaker 8>It's the end of the relationship.

0:14:38.280 --> 0:14:41.200
<v Speaker 9>Fair enough, But you're right, and I think they overreacted.

0:14:41.440 --> 0:14:43.680
<v Speaker 9>And it's proof that they overreacted because a day or

0:14:43.680 --> 0:14:45.640
<v Speaker 9>two later, there's a framework that makes sense.

0:14:45.880 --> 0:14:47.600
<v Speaker 6>Right. What did we say? We said we.

0:14:47.560 --> 0:14:50.360
<v Speaker 9>Cared about it for national security. Right, we said we

0:14:50.400 --> 0:14:53.000
<v Speaker 9>care about a national security. I mean, it's obvious we

0:14:53.000 --> 0:14:54.880
<v Speaker 9>care about it for national security. Because if you're going

0:14:54.920 --> 0:14:58.720
<v Speaker 9>to build a golden dome over the United States of America, right,

0:14:59.000 --> 0:15:02.760
<v Speaker 9>wouldn't you prefer the golden dome cover Greenland? So when

0:15:02.760 --> 0:15:05.160
<v Speaker 9>you're knocking out the missiles, you're not knocking them out

0:15:05.240 --> 0:15:07.120
<v Speaker 9>right over your head like we've all seen Israel like

0:15:07.240 --> 0:15:09.400
<v Speaker 9>knocking out the missiles right over their head with their

0:15:09.440 --> 0:15:10.000
<v Speaker 9>iron dome.

0:15:10.200 --> 0:15:11.640
<v Speaker 6>Wouldn't you prefer to knock.

0:15:11.400 --> 0:15:13.480
<v Speaker 9>Out the missiles if you live on the East coast

0:15:13.560 --> 0:15:15.960
<v Speaker 9>of the United States of America over Greenland, a couple

0:15:16.000 --> 0:15:18.120
<v Speaker 9>of thousand miles away where there's no people, Right, Does

0:15:18.240 --> 0:15:21.480
<v Speaker 9>that sound better? So this is sort of where we're

0:15:21.520 --> 0:15:24.560
<v Speaker 9>thinking about it and how our national security team is

0:15:24.600 --> 0:15:28.120
<v Speaker 9>thinking about its. Actually, the framework, well, the framework is

0:15:28.160 --> 0:15:30.800
<v Speaker 9>a national security based framework that that's what the United

0:15:30.840 --> 0:15:34.520
<v Speaker 9>States cares about. We care about our national security, we

0:15:34.560 --> 0:15:37.040
<v Speaker 9>care about the shipping lanes. So let's talk about the

0:15:37.120 --> 0:15:39.560
<v Speaker 9>national security and shipping lanes and let's see if we

0:15:39.600 --> 0:15:42.160
<v Speaker 9>can't figure out a framework to do that together. And

0:15:42.240 --> 0:15:44.480
<v Speaker 9>I think that's what the President truthed about. He said,

0:15:44.480 --> 0:15:46.560
<v Speaker 9>we're going to try to figure that out together because

0:15:46.640 --> 0:15:49.320
<v Speaker 9>those were the key points that the United States of

0:15:49.320 --> 0:15:52.240
<v Speaker 9>America cared about. And I think the President's been clear

0:15:52.280 --> 0:15:55.240
<v Speaker 9>about it and he just wants people at the table

0:15:55.680 --> 0:15:57.720
<v Speaker 9>dealing with it swiftly. I mean to think about this,

0:15:58.240 --> 0:16:02.760
<v Speaker 9>he sends out a truth and like within four days, right,

0:16:02.800 --> 0:16:05.280
<v Speaker 9>we have a framework agreement Like that's by the way,

0:16:05.320 --> 0:16:06.160
<v Speaker 9>it's a pretty effection.

0:16:06.160 --> 0:16:08.960
<v Speaker 5>And we had we had tariffs on tariffs.

0:16:08.600 --> 0:16:10.720
<v Speaker 6>Off they were as they were never on.

0:16:10.840 --> 0:16:12.800
<v Speaker 7>The threat of them are coming on for February First,

0:16:12.840 --> 0:16:15.200
<v Speaker 7>what does this do now for the agreement you were

0:16:15.200 --> 0:16:17.960
<v Speaker 7>and your team struck with Brussels because the legal implementation

0:16:18.080 --> 0:16:19.200
<v Speaker 7>has now been put on hold.

0:16:19.520 --> 0:16:23.080
<v Speaker 9>Oh, I think it'll be put on unhold probably tomorrow.

0:16:23.200 --> 0:16:25.960
<v Speaker 9>I mean, come on, That's why I said it's an overreaction.

0:16:26.400 --> 0:16:29.960
<v Speaker 9>I mean, they know when the President says, this is

0:16:29.960 --> 0:16:30.640
<v Speaker 9>what's going to happen.

0:16:30.720 --> 0:16:32.000
<v Speaker 6>I mean what provoked the president.

0:16:32.040 --> 0:16:35.480
<v Speaker 9>What provoked the President was that they sent military people

0:16:35.520 --> 0:16:39.520
<v Speaker 9>to Greenland. I mean, they didn't send military people to Ukraine. Like,

0:16:39.560 --> 0:16:43.160
<v Speaker 9>why are they sending military people to Greenland? You know,

0:16:43.280 --> 0:16:45.200
<v Speaker 9>it was so it seemed like a provocation.

0:16:45.320 --> 0:16:47.320
<v Speaker 2>We spoke to the Finish leader and he suggested that

0:16:47.480 --> 0:16:50.600
<v Speaker 2>was a miscommunication and he cleared that up pretty quickly.

0:16:50.680 --> 0:16:52.040
<v Speaker 2>There's something I want to get into with you that

0:16:52.040 --> 0:16:53.920
<v Speaker 2>I think is quite important. This, of course, is the

0:16:54.040 --> 0:16:55.240
<v Speaker 2>end of the deal. We talk about it on the

0:16:55.240 --> 0:16:57.560
<v Speaker 2>program all the time. The President anchors the story to

0:16:57.600 --> 0:16:59.560
<v Speaker 2>the extreme and then gets a faithful deal for the

0:16:59.640 --> 0:17:02.120
<v Speaker 2>unat of time. So I think that's well understood. Something

0:17:02.240 --> 0:17:04.560
<v Speaker 2>happened though, in the last twelve months that I think

0:17:04.640 --> 0:17:07.360
<v Speaker 2>is really interesting. He tried the same thing with Canada

0:17:07.800 --> 0:17:11.320
<v Speaker 2>and totally upended the election in Canada north of the border.

0:17:11.359 --> 0:17:12.880
<v Speaker 8>Polyeff was going to sail away with that.

0:17:13.200 --> 0:17:16.160
<v Speaker 2>The reason Mark Carney's here as Prime Minister is because

0:17:16.160 --> 0:17:19.600
<v Speaker 2>the President took such an assertive stance on Canada. Now

0:17:19.680 --> 0:17:21.680
<v Speaker 2>at the time, I was finding the humor in the conversation.

0:17:21.800 --> 0:17:24.920
<v Speaker 2>Then the Canadians started lighting up the Bloomberg terminal sending messages.

0:17:24.960 --> 0:17:27.760
<v Speaker 2>They were deeply offended, and we've seen that damage the

0:17:27.800 --> 0:17:31.280
<v Speaker 2>economic relationship with Canada and the United States, and the

0:17:31.359 --> 0:17:33.240
<v Speaker 2>risk camemists the Secretary, and I'd love your thoughts on

0:17:33.280 --> 0:17:34.680
<v Speaker 2>it and your reaction, because I think this is really

0:17:34.680 --> 0:17:38.040
<v Speaker 2>important regard to Europeans. The points you're making about Europe

0:17:38.040 --> 0:17:40.840
<v Speaker 2>and have made over the last week are valid points

0:17:40.960 --> 0:17:43.480
<v Speaker 2>and they're actually well received by a lot of Europeans.

0:17:43.800 --> 0:17:45.879
<v Speaker 2>But the style in which is being delivered at the moment,

0:17:46.200 --> 0:17:48.480
<v Speaker 2>some of them are finally offensive. Do you think there's

0:17:48.520 --> 0:17:51.320
<v Speaker 2>a risk here that we damage the economic relationship with

0:17:51.359 --> 0:17:53.560
<v Speaker 2>the Europeans in the same way we do with the Canadians,

0:17:53.680 --> 0:17:57.320
<v Speaker 2>and for that matter, derail the conservative movement in Europe

0:17:57.440 --> 0:17:58.360
<v Speaker 2>that's well underway.

0:17:59.080 --> 0:18:03.520
<v Speaker 9>I don't. The fact is that you need to rethink.

0:18:03.560 --> 0:18:07.080
<v Speaker 9>I think Europe is amazing and it's got extraordinary opportunity

0:18:07.080 --> 0:18:10.239
<v Speaker 9>and a twenty trillion dollar economy. But think about this,

0:18:10.720 --> 0:18:14.159
<v Speaker 9>if they had the right digital rules, meaning similar digital

0:18:14.280 --> 0:18:17.880
<v Speaker 9>rules to the United States, we have six trillion dollars

0:18:18.080 --> 0:18:21.119
<v Speaker 9>with of committed investment to build data centers in America

0:18:21.160 --> 0:18:23.280
<v Speaker 9>and we have a thirty trillion dollar economy. So if

0:18:23.320 --> 0:18:25.919
<v Speaker 9>they had a twenty trillion dollar economy, you'd say, okay,

0:18:26.400 --> 0:18:28.560
<v Speaker 9>if they had the same rules, they could get four trillion,

0:18:28.840 --> 0:18:32.399
<v Speaker 9>or how about two trillion. You realized two trillion for

0:18:32.480 --> 0:18:35.560
<v Speaker 9>their economy, right, would be ten points of GDP s

0:18:35.640 --> 0:18:38.000
<v Speaker 9>right over three or four years. I mean, that would

0:18:38.000 --> 0:18:40.920
<v Speaker 9>produce amazing growth. And let me sort of explain how

0:18:40.920 --> 0:18:43.800
<v Speaker 9>that works. So we did a deal with Micron. Right,

0:18:43.800 --> 0:18:46.280
<v Speaker 9>they're going to build two hundred billion dollars in America.

0:18:46.359 --> 0:18:50.080
<v Speaker 9>So on Friday last Friday, we did a ground breaking

0:18:50.359 --> 0:18:54.320
<v Speaker 9>of their megafab, one hundred billion dollar fag fab. And

0:18:54.359 --> 0:18:56.360
<v Speaker 9>where did they do it. They did it in upstate

0:18:56.440 --> 0:19:00.280
<v Speaker 9>New York, Conserracuorves. Now, there hasn't been industrial building state

0:19:00.359 --> 0:19:02.800
<v Speaker 9>New York in probably forty years, but if you think

0:19:02.800 --> 0:19:05.120
<v Speaker 9>about it, it had a huge industrial base once upon

0:19:05.160 --> 0:19:06.080
<v Speaker 9>a time, So what.

0:19:06.119 --> 0:19:09.119
<v Speaker 6>Does it have. It has power because it has the

0:19:09.160 --> 0:19:10.439
<v Speaker 6>power infrastructure for that.

0:19:10.760 --> 0:19:14.600
<v Speaker 9>So what that does is it creates like this enormous uplift.

0:19:14.800 --> 0:19:16.520
<v Speaker 6>And I think Europe can do the same thing.

0:19:16.560 --> 0:19:18.520
<v Speaker 9>I think the UK can do the same thing, and

0:19:19.000 --> 0:19:22.560
<v Speaker 9>Canada is just thinking in this arrogant kind of thought.

0:19:22.880 --> 0:19:25.119
<v Speaker 1>Well, but just to build on what John is talking about,

0:19:25.280 --> 0:19:28.400
<v Speaker 1>it's a style question. Can you get the same results

0:19:28.680 --> 0:19:32.120
<v Speaker 1>without using words like calling leaders week or their economy

0:19:32.160 --> 0:19:32.760
<v Speaker 1>is decaying?

0:19:33.080 --> 0:19:33.280
<v Speaker 3>Right?

0:19:33.359 --> 0:19:36.800
<v Speaker 1>Is it necessary to provoke the visceral feeling that we

0:19:36.880 --> 0:19:40.040
<v Speaker 1>feel among a lot of leaders here and in conversations

0:19:40.320 --> 0:19:43.560
<v Speaker 1>with international investors. I mean, is there any other way?

0:19:43.680 --> 0:19:46.680
<v Speaker 1>Is that style more harmful than it is helpful?

0:19:47.119 --> 0:19:51.439
<v Speaker 9>Well, I think it creates listening, Like people pay attention

0:19:51.520 --> 0:19:52.480
<v Speaker 9>to it and listen to it.

0:19:52.640 --> 0:19:54.000
<v Speaker 6>If you just sort of.

0:19:53.960 --> 0:19:57.439
<v Speaker 9>Blend in, no one hears anything in Davos, right, everybody

0:19:57.520 --> 0:19:59.679
<v Speaker 9>says the same blah blah blah blah blah. And if

0:19:59.680 --> 0:20:01.560
<v Speaker 9>you need to break out and you need to say it.

0:20:01.600 --> 0:20:06.240
<v Speaker 9>So my view is right that Canada has never expressed

0:20:06.240 --> 0:20:09.119
<v Speaker 9>to the world that they have the best deal, the

0:20:09.160 --> 0:20:11.159
<v Speaker 9>second best deal in the world, the best deal in

0:20:11.160 --> 0:20:14.640
<v Speaker 9>the world is Mexico, because remember they have USMCA, which

0:20:14.640 --> 0:20:18.040
<v Speaker 9>means eighty five percent of the Canadian economy comes into

0:20:18.080 --> 0:20:21.720
<v Speaker 9>the United States for zero. And there he is complaining

0:20:21.720 --> 0:20:24.760
<v Speaker 9>that he's going to go to China and improve it.

0:20:24.800 --> 0:20:28.040
<v Speaker 9>What's he going to do? China's delighted to sell to him.

0:20:28.240 --> 0:20:30.879
<v Speaker 9>But you think China's going to open their economy to

0:20:30.960 --> 0:20:32.760
<v Speaker 9>accept exports from Canada.

0:20:32.800 --> 0:20:34.440
<v Speaker 6>This is the silliest thing I've ever seen.

0:20:34.560 --> 0:20:36.840
<v Speaker 9>They have the second best deal because Mexico's got a

0:20:36.880 --> 0:20:39.000
<v Speaker 9>little better deal. They have twenty five percent on the

0:20:39.000 --> 0:20:42.040
<v Speaker 9>extra fifteen percent, whereas Canada's got thirty five percent on

0:20:42.119 --> 0:20:44.520
<v Speaker 9>the extra fifteen percent. But give me a break. They

0:20:44.520 --> 0:20:46.960
<v Speaker 9>have the second best deal in the world. And all

0:20:46.960 --> 0:20:48.600
<v Speaker 9>I got to do is listen to this guy wind

0:20:48.600 --> 0:20:49.480
<v Speaker 9>and complain.

0:20:49.200 --> 0:20:50.000
<v Speaker 5>Mister Secretary.

0:20:50.080 --> 0:20:52.760
<v Speaker 1>In fairness, you've seen from the airplanes, you've seen about

0:20:52.760 --> 0:20:55.600
<v Speaker 1>a thirty percent decline in Canadian visitors to the United States,

0:20:55.640 --> 0:20:57.879
<v Speaker 1>if not significantly more. You've seen a similar type of

0:20:57.880 --> 0:21:01.680
<v Speaker 1>decline from China. European traveler inbound have come down. There

0:21:01.760 --> 0:21:04.000
<v Speaker 1>is a sense that people do not want to come

0:21:04.040 --> 0:21:05.639
<v Speaker 1>to the culture of the US, and there is this

0:21:05.760 --> 0:21:08.840
<v Speaker 1>anchor about it. I just wonder if you think that

0:21:08.840 --> 0:21:11.200
<v Speaker 1>that's just temporary, or you just sort of dismiss that,

0:21:11.320 --> 0:21:13.320
<v Speaker 1>or you think it's irrelevant to the actual issues.

0:21:13.920 --> 0:21:17.840
<v Speaker 9>I think what that is is political marketing. Right, the

0:21:17.920 --> 0:21:20.959
<v Speaker 9>Canadians have the second best deal in the whole wide

0:21:21.000 --> 0:21:25.040
<v Speaker 9>world if they continue this path, right, which is a

0:21:25.080 --> 0:21:27.800
<v Speaker 9>political path of a certain thing.

0:21:27.840 --> 0:21:29.679
<v Speaker 6>I'm going to go fly to China. I'm going to

0:21:29.720 --> 0:21:31.160
<v Speaker 6>open up my markets to China.

0:21:31.200 --> 0:21:34.240
<v Speaker 9>I'm going to take Chinese electric cars and do all

0:21:34.240 --> 0:21:39.960
<v Speaker 9>sorts of this stuff. Then when USMCA gets renegotiated this year,

0:21:40.600 --> 0:21:43.439
<v Speaker 9>this year sort of like towards the end of the summer,

0:21:43.720 --> 0:21:45.320
<v Speaker 9>in the middle of the summer, do you think the

0:21:45.320 --> 0:21:47.679
<v Speaker 9>President of United States is going to say you should

0:21:47.800 --> 0:21:50.040
<v Speaker 9>keep having the second best deal in the world. I mean,

0:21:50.040 --> 0:21:52.840
<v Speaker 9>you guys are such great friends. I mean they are

0:21:52.920 --> 0:21:57.440
<v Speaker 9>playing with except of rules that they haven't really thought.

0:21:57.480 --> 0:21:59.200
<v Speaker 2>I can hear it in your voice. You're excited about

0:21:59.200 --> 0:22:00.600
<v Speaker 2>negotiating this this year.

0:22:00.640 --> 0:22:03.639
<v Speaker 9>Well, they've sort of given a sort of a roadmap

0:22:03.800 --> 0:22:05.920
<v Speaker 9>of saying, so, I guess we should change the whole deal.

0:22:06.440 --> 0:22:08.200
<v Speaker 6>Right, you want to be like the rest of the world.

0:22:08.480 --> 0:22:11.960
<v Speaker 9>You don't want to be this favored neighbor, because you've

0:22:12.000 --> 0:22:14.879
<v Speaker 9>taken it so for granted that you're willing to come

0:22:15.119 --> 0:22:17.879
<v Speaker 9>to Davos and say, the two higemic.

0:22:17.480 --> 0:22:20.440
<v Speaker 10>Powers in the world, and we're going to decide which

0:22:20.480 --> 0:22:22.399
<v Speaker 10>one we're going to work with. Really, you're going to

0:22:22.480 --> 0:22:24.359
<v Speaker 10>either work with the United States of America, where seventy

0:22:24.359 --> 0:22:27.360
<v Speaker 10>five percent of your economy is totally tied to it,

0:22:27.600 --> 0:22:28.280
<v Speaker 10>or China.

0:22:29.000 --> 0:22:32.639
<v Speaker 6>Why would you say that? It just I think it's political,

0:22:33.320 --> 0:22:33.560
<v Speaker 6>you know.

0:22:33.680 --> 0:22:36.600
<v Speaker 9>I think if we take it correctly, we should look

0:22:36.600 --> 0:22:39.119
<v Speaker 9>at it as just political noise coming out of a

0:22:39.160 --> 0:22:42.200
<v Speaker 9>prime minister and maybe this is working for his election, right,

0:22:42.240 --> 0:22:44.800
<v Speaker 9>because I don't think it can be real, because if

0:22:44.840 --> 0:22:49.280
<v Speaker 9>you took out the math of Canada's economy and doing

0:22:49.320 --> 0:22:52.960
<v Speaker 9>business with the United States of America's thirty trillion dollar economy,

0:22:53.280 --> 0:22:57.000
<v Speaker 9>there's no such thing as changing what they have today.

0:22:57.240 --> 0:22:59.960
<v Speaker 6>No one would vote for changing what they had today.

0:23:00.280 --> 0:23:03.040
<v Speaker 9>Now, not thally they're marketing as well, but they're just

0:23:03.280 --> 0:23:06.080
<v Speaker 9>for their politics, but they're surely not marketing it well

0:23:06.280 --> 0:23:07.960
<v Speaker 9>for their fundamental economics.

0:23:07.960 --> 0:23:09.439
<v Speaker 6>For long term, the United States, the.

0:23:09.480 --> 0:23:10.960
<v Speaker 5>US is doing deals with China, and I'd love you

0:23:10.960 --> 0:23:12.760
<v Speaker 5>to walk us through what's going on with the Age twenties.

0:23:12.880 --> 0:23:15.320
<v Speaker 7>Is it accurate now that basically for China to get

0:23:15.320 --> 0:23:17.480
<v Speaker 7>the age twenty chips, Taiwan needs to send them to

0:23:17.560 --> 0:23:19.960
<v Speaker 7>America for US to put a tariff on them to

0:23:20.000 --> 0:23:22.480
<v Speaker 7>make money off it, and then send to China. And

0:23:22.600 --> 0:23:25.440
<v Speaker 7>is it your understanding that China might be suspectable now

0:23:25.480 --> 0:23:28.680
<v Speaker 7>to these chips? Suspect because they're entering through the United States.

0:23:29.359 --> 0:23:32.760
<v Speaker 9>So it's the Age two hundred, right, So that's the

0:23:32.840 --> 0:23:33.760
<v Speaker 9>chip we're talking about.

0:23:33.840 --> 0:23:37.080
<v Speaker 6>And Jensen Wang came to the Oval office and he argued.

0:23:36.840 --> 0:23:40.440
<v Speaker 9>That this is a better chip than they can actually

0:23:40.480 --> 0:23:43.520
<v Speaker 9>make in any scale, right, So if we sell them

0:23:43.560 --> 0:23:47.120
<v Speaker 9>to China, right, and Chinese businesses, then they'll start using

0:23:47.119 --> 0:23:50.480
<v Speaker 9>them and they'll develop on the American tech stack and

0:23:50.480 --> 0:23:52.800
<v Speaker 9>that will take some money away from the Chinese tech stack.

0:23:53.040 --> 0:23:56.040
<v Speaker 9>And that's an interesting argument. There are two sides. There

0:23:56.080 --> 0:23:58.600
<v Speaker 9>are strong two sides. We shouldn't sell them any or

0:23:58.640 --> 0:24:01.440
<v Speaker 9>we should sell them, which to us and I stayed

0:24:01.480 --> 0:24:04.439
<v Speaker 9>right in the middle. It was a really really good discussion, okay.

0:24:04.640 --> 0:24:07.480
<v Speaker 9>And the President decided that fine, we'll sell the h

0:24:07.520 --> 0:24:10.520
<v Speaker 9>two hundreds to them, okay. And he made that decision

0:24:10.560 --> 0:24:12.560
<v Speaker 9>and after he was done, he said, and you know what,

0:24:13.119 --> 0:24:15.120
<v Speaker 9>I think if we do that, we should get twenty

0:24:15.160 --> 0:24:18.600
<v Speaker 9>five percent for the American taxpayers, right, because we're creating.

0:24:18.320 --> 0:24:20.520
<v Speaker 7>Something I think China wants to buy them knowing that

0:24:20.520 --> 0:24:23.159
<v Speaker 7>they're going from Taiwan now back to the US.

0:24:23.359 --> 0:24:25.040
<v Speaker 6>They're coming to the United States.

0:24:25.080 --> 0:24:29.360
<v Speaker 9>Because in order to collect twenty five percent, right, the

0:24:29.720 --> 0:24:33.440
<v Speaker 9>process matter to do it right is he imported, put

0:24:33.440 --> 0:24:36.120
<v Speaker 9>a tariff on it, and then export it again. Okay,

0:24:36.440 --> 0:24:39.840
<v Speaker 9>And so that's the model. It's the process model to

0:24:39.920 --> 0:24:44.080
<v Speaker 9>execute a plan that the President United States of America made, right.

0:24:44.240 --> 0:24:46.879
<v Speaker 9>So that's just the execution model of how to do it.

0:24:46.880 --> 0:24:49.640
<v Speaker 9>It's not it's just process right. And it's the same

0:24:49.720 --> 0:24:52.760
<v Speaker 9>age two hundred chip. And the question we'll find out

0:24:53.320 --> 0:24:57.240
<v Speaker 9>is that businesses in China want to buy, that's for sure.

0:24:57.560 --> 0:25:02.000
<v Speaker 9>The question is does China Central governm right want you

0:25:02.040 --> 0:25:03.920
<v Speaker 9>know when they have that same argument too, I want

0:25:03.920 --> 0:25:07.120
<v Speaker 9>to give my companies this chip that they're all clamoring for,

0:25:07.560 --> 0:25:09.320
<v Speaker 9>or do I want to force them to take the

0:25:09.359 --> 0:25:12.680
<v Speaker 9>pain of using lesser chips that are domestically made but

0:25:12.800 --> 0:25:14.960
<v Speaker 9>helping our domestic companies grow.

0:25:15.480 --> 0:25:17.879
<v Speaker 6>And that's a question we're going to see how it goes.

0:25:17.920 --> 0:25:20.680
<v Speaker 9>But I think the President put that question out there,

0:25:20.840 --> 0:25:22.760
<v Speaker 9>and I think it's a really interesting one. I didn't

0:25:22.760 --> 0:25:26.199
<v Speaker 9>say there's not two sides of that coin, right, but

0:25:26.280 --> 0:25:31.040
<v Speaker 9>the President thought having Chinese developers on the US tech stack, right,

0:25:31.560 --> 0:25:35.239
<v Speaker 9>given sort of the middle, he falls that way. And

0:25:35.480 --> 0:25:38.640
<v Speaker 9>it was really robust discussion. Both sides of the discussion

0:25:38.680 --> 0:25:41.160
<v Speaker 9>were in the room. It was a deep and thoughtful discussion.

0:25:41.240 --> 0:25:43.200
<v Speaker 9>And that's where he came out, and that's why he's

0:25:43.200 --> 0:25:43.679
<v Speaker 9>the president.

0:25:43.880 --> 0:25:45.919
<v Speaker 2>So, you know, just a final thought, just listening to

0:25:45.920 --> 0:25:48.280
<v Speaker 2>this engaging conversation of the last fifteen minutes or so,

0:25:48.560 --> 0:25:51.040
<v Speaker 2>do you fancy the FED seat over the Federal Reserve?

0:25:51.080 --> 0:25:53.680
<v Speaker 2>I can see comma section the extra. You can see

0:25:53.720 --> 0:25:56.240
<v Speaker 2>him in the equoes. Can you imagine the magic of

0:25:56.280 --> 0:26:01.320
<v Speaker 2>that news conference? These news conference, the news confer I'd

0:26:01.359 --> 0:26:02.760
<v Speaker 2>be going, you know what I call that?

0:26:02.840 --> 0:26:07.359
<v Speaker 6>I called that an Amy winehouse. No, no, no, I

0:26:07.440 --> 0:26:08.520
<v Speaker 6>call that box office.

0:26:09.480 --> 0:26:12.720
<v Speaker 8>It's good to see you. Stay with us. More Bloomberg

0:26:12.760 --> 0:26:25.120
<v Speaker 8>surveillance coming up after this. Let's stick with the economy.

0:26:25.200 --> 0:26:26.920
<v Speaker 2>The positive outlook joining us now is the Bank of

0:26:26.960 --> 0:26:29.280
<v Speaker 2>American chairman and see Brian Moynahan Brian, good to see you.

0:26:29.600 --> 0:26:30.159
<v Speaker 11>Good to see you.

0:26:30.880 --> 0:26:34.320
<v Speaker 12>Howard and I were on a panel yesterday and then yesterday. Yeah,

0:26:34.680 --> 0:26:36.480
<v Speaker 12>there made a day before yesterday and lunch to day

0:26:36.520 --> 0:26:39.080
<v Speaker 12>and actually we're going to do another public venue where

0:26:39.080 --> 0:26:40.760
<v Speaker 12>we're talking about how you raise the money to do

0:26:40.800 --> 0:26:44.600
<v Speaker 12>all this investment he was talking about, so he's he's

0:26:44.840 --> 0:26:47.840
<v Speaker 12>bullish on America. And he watched part of the interview.

0:26:47.840 --> 0:26:49.960
<v Speaker 12>It sounds like you said that you guys are too. Yes,

0:26:50.040 --> 0:26:51.640
<v Speaker 12>So let's start the GDP forecast.

0:26:52.640 --> 0:26:53.520
<v Speaker 11>Our research.

0:26:55.040 --> 0:26:56.600
<v Speaker 12>Our research turn is one of the best in the world,

0:26:57.240 --> 0:26:59.000
<v Speaker 12>led by a woman named Cannons Browning Platt, and they

0:26:59.040 --> 0:27:03.240
<v Speaker 12>all come out. They raised their GDP for US to

0:27:03.280 --> 0:27:06.720
<v Speaker 12>two point eight percent growth for the twenty six right

0:27:06.760 --> 0:27:08.920
<v Speaker 12>before we came to Davos, the world about three and

0:27:08.920 --> 0:27:12.040
<v Speaker 12>a half they raised a point one And the important

0:27:12.040 --> 0:27:14.080
<v Speaker 12>things I think to think about the US as you

0:27:14.080 --> 0:27:16.440
<v Speaker 12>think about the travel last time from the last time

0:27:16.440 --> 0:27:18.600
<v Speaker 12>you're here, last time you're here, we probably had two

0:27:18.600 --> 0:27:22.200
<v Speaker 12>and a half percent four twenty six. Then Liberation Day

0:27:22.240 --> 0:27:23.680
<v Speaker 12>it drops all the way to one and a half.

0:27:23.920 --> 0:27:26.480
<v Speaker 12>And then as a settling in of there's the four

0:27:26.480 --> 0:27:31.200
<v Speaker 12>primary policies of the Trump administration, trade and tariff, tax,

0:27:31.680 --> 0:27:35.600
<v Speaker 12>immigration and deregulation, starts settling in. We've raised it back

0:27:35.600 --> 0:27:38.680
<v Speaker 12>to two six and out two point eight and that's

0:27:39.000 --> 0:27:41.679
<v Speaker 12>so that's polish. And then underneath it we see what

0:27:41.680 --> 0:27:43.960
<v Speaker 12>the consumer really does. And if we can talk about that,

0:27:44.800 --> 0:27:46.520
<v Speaker 12>you know, the consumer spending was strong than the fourth

0:27:46.600 --> 0:27:48.159
<v Speaker 12>quarter when I've talked about that, it's four and a

0:27:48.160 --> 0:27:50.919
<v Speaker 12>half trillion dollars our seventy million consumers which were blessed

0:27:50.920 --> 0:27:53.320
<v Speaker 12>to have put into the economy a year, and that

0:27:53.720 --> 0:27:55.879
<v Speaker 12>for the fourth quarter, that grew about five percent of

0:27:56.119 --> 0:27:58.760
<v Speaker 12>twenty four's fourth quarter, and so far in January it's

0:27:58.760 --> 0:28:00.840
<v Speaker 12>growing a little faster that you've got to be careful about.

0:28:00.840 --> 0:28:02.919
<v Speaker 12>Two weeks don't make a quarter. But let's staying up.

0:28:02.920 --> 0:28:03.359
<v Speaker 11>They're strong.

0:28:03.400 --> 0:28:05.320
<v Speaker 2>Well, let's pair that GDP forecast with the bank and

0:28:05.359 --> 0:28:07.840
<v Speaker 2>the business lines. Then what position are you going to

0:28:07.840 --> 0:28:10.120
<v Speaker 2>take advantage of that better growth story in America?

0:28:10.160 --> 0:28:11.480
<v Speaker 8>And what do you expected to show up?

0:28:11.680 --> 0:28:11.880
<v Speaker 11>Well?

0:28:12.760 --> 0:28:15.480
<v Speaker 12>Because who you are, and you know, we've been part

0:28:15.480 --> 0:28:17.240
<v Speaker 12>owners of this company a long long time ago, and

0:28:17.240 --> 0:28:19.080
<v Speaker 12>Mike has built a good thing around the market's business.

0:28:19.119 --> 0:28:20.879
<v Speaker 12>That's whi you're always interested even though there's all this

0:28:21.000 --> 0:28:23.040
<v Speaker 12>other stuff that makes a lot of money. But look

0:28:23.080 --> 0:28:25.520
<v Speaker 12>if you look at Jim DeMar's now Copra as in

0:28:25.560 --> 0:28:29.080
<v Speaker 12>the company, but his team and markets this year had

0:28:29.119 --> 0:28:31.560
<v Speaker 12>their last quarter, had their fifteenh consecutive quarter of year

0:28:31.560 --> 0:28:34.040
<v Speaker 12>over year growth. They just keep walking up ten percent

0:28:34.119 --> 0:28:37.560
<v Speaker 12>up for the fourth quarter. If you look at investment banking,

0:28:37.560 --> 0:28:39.680
<v Speaker 12>which is kind of interesting, Sir Matthew Coder and a team.

0:28:40.200 --> 0:28:42.000
<v Speaker 12>You know, early in December, we thought we were about

0:28:42.000 --> 0:28:43.320
<v Speaker 12>a billion and a half and I went out at

0:28:43.320 --> 0:28:45.280
<v Speaker 12>a conference and told people that in Lo and Behore

0:28:45.280 --> 0:28:49.120
<v Speaker 12>we ended a billion six five and that made twenty

0:28:49.240 --> 0:28:52.720
<v Speaker 12>twenty Five's the second best year of investment banking fees

0:28:52.800 --> 0:28:56.800
<v Speaker 12>in our company's history, in the one that was pandemic

0:28:56.800 --> 0:28:58.600
<v Speaker 12>when everybody did a lot of financing. And next year

0:28:58.640 --> 0:29:01.040
<v Speaker 12>we think we're bullish because of pipeline and then broadening

0:29:01.040 --> 0:29:03.920
<v Speaker 12>out of the revenue stream into the IPO markets and

0:29:03.960 --> 0:29:05.959
<v Speaker 12>other things which are got to start a little bit

0:29:06.360 --> 0:29:08.200
<v Speaker 12>this year but have been pretty depressed for a while.

0:29:08.320 --> 0:29:11.080
<v Speaker 12>So that's coming in. And deals either just the deal flow.

0:29:11.120 --> 0:29:14.440
<v Speaker 12>People can get deals done. When I was here a

0:29:14.480 --> 0:29:17.200
<v Speaker 12>couple of davas ago, you know, the regulatory burdens were

0:29:17.200 --> 0:29:19.560
<v Speaker 12>getting so high that you couldn't honestly tell a client

0:29:19.600 --> 0:29:21.320
<v Speaker 12>who's trying to do a five billion dollar deal to

0:29:21.360 --> 0:29:23.800
<v Speaker 12>do it, because you said, if you can stabilize your

0:29:23.840 --> 0:29:26.560
<v Speaker 12>company for six months a year trying to get this through,

0:29:26.800 --> 0:29:28.440
<v Speaker 12>and you don't get it through, is.

0:29:28.360 --> 0:29:28.920
<v Speaker 11>That worth it?

0:29:29.200 --> 0:29:31.400
<v Speaker 12>And that's sort off the table, and even our industry,

0:29:31.480 --> 0:29:33.680
<v Speaker 12>even though we can't do anything six months, approval of

0:29:33.680 --> 0:29:35.120
<v Speaker 12>timelines are back to where they should be.

0:29:35.360 --> 0:29:37.400
<v Speaker 1>It seems like there is an incredible amount of foolishness

0:29:37.440 --> 0:29:40.920
<v Speaker 1>here at Davos about deals, about IPOs, about all sorts

0:29:40.920 --> 0:29:45.080
<v Speaker 1>of transactions, and some of the issuances of debt and equity.

0:29:45.520 --> 0:29:46.200
<v Speaker 11>At the same.

0:29:46.080 --> 0:29:48.840
<v Speaker 1>Time, there's a real concern about affordability. There's a concern

0:29:48.880 --> 0:29:51.400
<v Speaker 1>about how well the consumer is going to be able

0:29:51.400 --> 0:29:54.400
<v Speaker 1>to face off with inflation. I'm just wondering if this

0:29:54.440 --> 0:29:56.040
<v Speaker 1>is the year that we see the two come together,

0:29:56.080 --> 0:29:58.200
<v Speaker 1>because last year they didn't come together. We saw the

0:29:58.240 --> 0:30:01.160
<v Speaker 1>same kind of joblessness in terms of the growth, and

0:30:01.200 --> 0:30:03.400
<v Speaker 1>we saw the same kind of lack of enthusiasm and

0:30:03.440 --> 0:30:04.440
<v Speaker 1>sentiment surveys.

0:30:04.600 --> 0:30:07.080
<v Speaker 12>Yeah, so if you look through the if you think

0:30:07.080 --> 0:30:09.560
<v Speaker 12>about last year and think about how bullish people were

0:30:09.600 --> 0:30:12.000
<v Speaker 12>last year because about the United States and the change

0:30:12.000 --> 0:30:14.880
<v Speaker 12>of regatory regime and things like that. You know, in

0:30:14.920 --> 0:30:16.760
<v Speaker 12>April things change and then by the end of the

0:30:16.800 --> 0:30:19.080
<v Speaker 12>year it's changed back, and so I think that had

0:30:19.080 --> 0:30:20.080
<v Speaker 12>a lot to do with it. If you look at

0:30:20.080 --> 0:30:23.120
<v Speaker 12>the consumer and what we see, that spending level is

0:30:23.120 --> 0:30:27.640
<v Speaker 12>not consistent with people who feel they're threatened in the future,

0:30:27.760 --> 0:30:30.880
<v Speaker 12>and they're spending on all kinds of things. Now, if

0:30:30.920 --> 0:30:33.440
<v Speaker 12>you look at the research team the Bank of America Institute,

0:30:33.440 --> 0:30:35.320
<v Speaker 12>if you look at the work they've done, if you

0:30:35.400 --> 0:30:39.280
<v Speaker 12>put three groups of customers lower income, third, middle and

0:30:39.280 --> 0:30:41.360
<v Speaker 12>come third, upper and con third, they're all growing at

0:30:41.360 --> 0:30:44.080
<v Speaker 12>the middle and upper growing a faster rate, and frankly

0:30:44.120 --> 0:30:45.920
<v Speaker 12>that drives a lot of the growth. But if you

0:30:45.960 --> 0:30:47.760
<v Speaker 12>look at what everybody's spending on, they're spending on going

0:30:47.800 --> 0:30:50.640
<v Speaker 12>out thet they're spending on booking vacations, are spending on

0:30:50.720 --> 0:30:54.320
<v Speaker 12>essential So what's the affordability. It's the inflation that people remember,

0:30:54.720 --> 0:30:56.560
<v Speaker 12>and that is going to take a while for people

0:30:56.560 --> 0:30:58.440
<v Speaker 12>to kind of put in the rearview mirror, because people

0:30:58.440 --> 0:31:01.320
<v Speaker 12>can remember it's not too hard to remember pre COVID,

0:31:01.360 --> 0:31:05.240
<v Speaker 12>where X was costure. You know, got email customers a

0:31:05.240 --> 0:31:07.640
<v Speaker 12>gata gas cost you that your rent was this, And

0:31:07.680 --> 0:31:11.160
<v Speaker 12>with that explosion of prices, wages also went up. But

0:31:11.640 --> 0:31:13.960
<v Speaker 12>the consumer thinks more about the price side and then

0:31:13.960 --> 0:31:15.960
<v Speaker 12>the question of we'll turn over and get back and

0:31:16.000 --> 0:31:18.200
<v Speaker 12>sink And that's what's in those surveys. But if you

0:31:18.200 --> 0:31:21.280
<v Speaker 12>watch your activity, and I'm a big believer, they'll tell

0:31:21.280 --> 0:31:22.960
<v Speaker 12>you one thing. Watch what they do, and that's what

0:31:23.000 --> 0:31:25.480
<v Speaker 12>they're doing as of last Friday in the consumer base

0:31:25.520 --> 0:31:27.600
<v Speaker 12>across seventy million people, which are pretty good sample.

0:31:27.400 --> 0:31:28.360
<v Speaker 3>Size, they're spending a lot.

0:31:28.400 --> 0:31:29.840
<v Speaker 1>Maybe they would spend even more if there was a

0:31:29.840 --> 0:31:31.920
<v Speaker 1>ten percent cap on credit card rates. I mean, look

0:31:32.040 --> 0:31:34.160
<v Speaker 1>at this proposal, got a lot of attention about a

0:31:34.160 --> 0:31:36.360
<v Speaker 1>week ago. It feels like three years ago, and people

0:31:36.400 --> 0:31:38.640
<v Speaker 1>push back and said it wasn't realistic, it wasn't feasible.

0:31:38.720 --> 0:31:41.400
<v Speaker 1>We had Jamie Diving come out and discuss about how

0:31:41.800 --> 0:31:43.000
<v Speaker 1>try it and see what happens.

0:31:43.000 --> 0:31:43.880
<v Speaker 5>What's your take on that?

0:31:43.920 --> 0:31:47.440
<v Speaker 1>How realistic are you seeing those proposals as being?

0:31:47.880 --> 0:31:50.120
<v Speaker 12>So if you step back, you know we're all for

0:31:50.160 --> 0:31:53.719
<v Speaker 12>affordability and financial products. So you guys have thought over

0:31:53.720 --> 0:31:55.840
<v Speaker 12>the year, is what we did on overdraft fees taking

0:31:56.200 --> 0:31:58.480
<v Speaker 12>down by ninety percent over a course of fifteen years.

0:31:58.520 --> 0:32:00.520
<v Speaker 12>What we did on having a five hundred dollar loan

0:32:00.520 --> 0:32:02.760
<v Speaker 12>account of five dollars no interest rate, you could borrow

0:32:02.760 --> 0:32:05.960
<v Speaker 12>emergency loan of five hundred dollars. Eight million customers have

0:32:06.080 --> 0:32:07.760
<v Speaker 12>used that over the last several years to give you

0:32:07.800 --> 0:32:10.240
<v Speaker 12>a cent So and then we have a no frills

0:32:10.240 --> 0:32:12.680
<v Speaker 12>credit card, no rewards and other stuff that people might

0:32:12.720 --> 0:32:14.160
<v Speaker 12>attribute that is low rate.

0:32:14.200 --> 0:32:15.600
<v Speaker 11>It's not all way down at that rate. So I

0:32:15.640 --> 0:32:15.960
<v Speaker 11>think the.

0:32:15.960 --> 0:32:19.000
<v Speaker 12>Question is can we figure out a solution where you

0:32:19.040 --> 0:32:23.760
<v Speaker 12>can avoid the equal and opposite reaction? As our friend

0:32:23.840 --> 0:32:26.080
<v Speaker 12>Lafayette said in the Hamilton song, you know every action

0:32:26.120 --> 0:32:28.760
<v Speaker 12>has econdoptics reaction, So the equal opposite reaction we all

0:32:28.880 --> 0:32:31.120
<v Speaker 12>talked about last week. If you actually make this a policy,

0:32:31.360 --> 0:32:34.320
<v Speaker 12>you can reallocate credit. That will slow down spending, It

0:32:34.320 --> 0:32:36.600
<v Speaker 12>will slow down credit availability, and that might not be

0:32:36.640 --> 0:32:38.440
<v Speaker 12>what you're trying to achieve. So can you do something

0:32:38.760 --> 0:32:40.760
<v Speaker 12>on a go for a basis on the limited things,

0:32:41.040 --> 0:32:42.960
<v Speaker 12>and even one year if you had to go reshuffle

0:32:43.000 --> 0:32:45.720
<v Speaker 12>the whole deck, that would be pretty pretty interesting and

0:32:45.800 --> 0:32:46.560
<v Speaker 12>to cause a lot.

0:32:46.440 --> 0:32:49.600
<v Speaker 11>Of change in people's views. Of what they have available

0:32:49.640 --> 0:32:51.320
<v Speaker 11>for credit. You want people to have available for credit

0:32:51.360 --> 0:32:52.880
<v Speaker 11>because that gives them the courage to spend it.

0:32:53.000 --> 0:32:55.000
<v Speaker 12>And so we're trying to figure out that.

0:32:55.040 --> 0:32:56.400
<v Speaker 11>We're all working trying to figure out.

0:32:56.240 --> 0:32:58.560
<v Speaker 12>Okay, given the affordability, given the thought process, is a

0:32:58.600 --> 0:33:01.320
<v Speaker 12>way that we can do something that might help without

0:33:01.360 --> 0:33:03.480
<v Speaker 12>having an equal and opposite reaction, because that would.

0:33:03.280 --> 0:33:03.680
<v Speaker 11>Not be good.

0:33:03.880 --> 0:33:07.880
<v Speaker 12>Our point is to get the credit losses down to

0:33:07.920 --> 0:33:10.000
<v Speaker 12>the point you can afford that rate. You actually can

0:33:10.000 --> 0:33:12.080
<v Speaker 12>never have a charge off, and you start to think about.

0:33:11.880 --> 0:33:14.520
<v Speaker 11>Who can get credit. That's thing. So we're working hard.

0:33:14.560 --> 0:33:16.120
<v Speaker 12>We're trying to cook with solutions like we are on

0:33:16.160 --> 0:33:18.320
<v Speaker 12>some of the for the proposal around mortgage and form

0:33:18.400 --> 0:33:20.640
<v Speaker 12>and K usage and trying to think of how you

0:33:20.680 --> 0:33:25.600
<v Speaker 12>maybe can move the transfer wealth faster by giving people

0:33:25.720 --> 0:33:27.960
<v Speaker 12>in my age bracket the ability to move a fourumn

0:33:28.040 --> 0:33:30.000
<v Speaker 12>K bounce to pay help their kid buy a house

0:33:30.080 --> 0:33:30.760
<v Speaker 12>or something like that.

0:33:31.320 --> 0:33:33.640
<v Speaker 11>We threw that out to Howard yesterday.

0:33:33.760 --> 0:33:36.160
<v Speaker 12>There's these ideas of letting people use their own form

0:33:36.160 --> 0:33:39.200
<v Speaker 12>and K with less they can borrow from today. But

0:33:39.200 --> 0:33:40.680
<v Speaker 12>there's a way you can actually just take with a

0:33:40.760 --> 0:33:43.320
<v Speaker 12>draw so they don't have the added debt burden, and

0:33:43.320 --> 0:33:45.240
<v Speaker 12>then you've got to work on the supply side of housing.

0:33:45.400 --> 0:33:48.240
<v Speaker 12>And the President was interesting, Yes, he sense the issue.

0:33:48.240 --> 0:33:50.160
<v Speaker 12>If you bring down house prices to make it affordable,

0:33:50.200 --> 0:33:51.920
<v Speaker 12>is that the right answer for everybody? But on the

0:33:51.960 --> 0:33:55.320
<v Speaker 12>other hand, when you have the kind of over demand

0:33:55.360 --> 0:33:56.960
<v Speaker 12>in some of the cities, who work in thirty thousand

0:33:57.080 --> 0:34:01.760
<v Speaker 12>UITs in Charlotte twenty thousand, Bostony forty thousand, one hundred thousand,

0:34:01.760 --> 0:34:03.800
<v Speaker 12>whatever in New York, you could build a lot before

0:34:03.840 --> 0:34:04.280
<v Speaker 12>I think you'd have.

0:34:04.280 --> 0:34:06.200
<v Speaker 11>A major impact on the downward train of prices.

0:34:06.240 --> 0:34:10.200
<v Speaker 7>Well, the DJT imposed deadline of January twenty has come

0:34:10.280 --> 0:34:12.000
<v Speaker 7>and gone for the credit card caps. Have you spoken

0:34:12.000 --> 0:34:14.680
<v Speaker 7>to the administration about this issue and talk to them

0:34:14.719 --> 0:34:19.200
<v Speaker 7>about the potential counterintuitive problem with a ten percent cap?

0:34:21.160 --> 0:34:23.160
<v Speaker 12>The team and I talked administration all the time about

0:34:23.160 --> 0:34:26.359
<v Speaker 12>these policies and stuff, and they listen and they're trying

0:34:26.400 --> 0:34:28.319
<v Speaker 12>to figure out the same issue from their side, how

0:34:28.360 --> 0:34:31.239
<v Speaker 12>can they make America more affordable? And I think the

0:34:31.760 --> 0:34:33.319
<v Speaker 12>number one thing we can do to make America more

0:34:33.360 --> 0:34:34.120
<v Speaker 12>affordable is.

0:34:34.160 --> 0:34:35.240
<v Speaker 11>Keep everybody employed.

0:34:35.400 --> 0:34:39.680
<v Speaker 12>And Ernie's growth in our in our client base across

0:34:39.680 --> 0:34:41.560
<v Speaker 12>seventy million people. We see a lot of paychecks come

0:34:41.560 --> 0:34:44.200
<v Speaker 12>in and that's growing at three percent four percent, and

0:34:44.480 --> 0:34:47.680
<v Speaker 12>that's a good number, and so know that wage growth

0:34:47.719 --> 0:34:53.000
<v Speaker 12>continuity will ultimately make people feel different about it. It's

0:34:53.040 --> 0:34:55.960
<v Speaker 12>completely understandable why they feel the sort of animus of

0:34:56.000 --> 0:34:58.319
<v Speaker 12>how these things came into their household and then what

0:34:58.320 --> 0:35:00.840
<v Speaker 12>they want to do about it, and then rent and affordability.

0:35:00.840 --> 0:35:02.520
<v Speaker 12>We've given them the types of ideas I talked about.

0:35:02.640 --> 0:35:04.359
<v Speaker 2>We need to see some bit of hiring as well.

0:35:04.440 --> 0:35:07.680
<v Speaker 2>Can we talk about hiring the AI story. It's difficult

0:35:07.680 --> 0:35:09.840
<v Speaker 2>to understand what's happened with hiring in this country in

0:35:09.880 --> 0:35:12.719
<v Speaker 2>America over the last twelve months. What do you think

0:35:12.760 --> 0:35:15.200
<v Speaker 2>has happened? What's your understanding of this drop off in hiring.

0:35:15.320 --> 0:35:17.040
<v Speaker 2>Is it a supply side story? What do you think

0:35:17.040 --> 0:35:17.319
<v Speaker 2>it is?

0:35:17.960 --> 0:35:22.000
<v Speaker 12>I think I think there's a concern of availability at

0:35:22.080 --> 0:35:26.239
<v Speaker 12>labor because of the population growth, immigration dynamics that I think, again,

0:35:26.280 --> 0:35:27.560
<v Speaker 12>the administration is trying to get.

0:35:27.440 --> 0:35:30.160
<v Speaker 11>Much more fine around exactly what they're.

0:35:29.920 --> 0:35:33.840
<v Speaker 12>Doing and not threatening people who've been naturalized citizens and

0:35:33.880 --> 0:35:36.000
<v Speaker 12>things like that, and that was never what they're intended

0:35:36.000 --> 0:35:37.920
<v Speaker 12>to do, but people started reading it, so I think

0:35:38.200 --> 0:35:40.440
<v Speaker 12>and now if you looked our small business surveys, labor

0:35:40.520 --> 0:35:43.360
<v Speaker 12>availability became an issue again and hadn't been for a

0:35:43.360 --> 0:35:46.440
<v Speaker 12>good while. And so so I think that that's something

0:35:46.960 --> 0:35:49.040
<v Speaker 12>we've advised administration to be mindful of because you don't

0:35:49.040 --> 0:35:51.879
<v Speaker 12>want that to become a constraint on people's views of growing. Now,

0:35:52.080 --> 0:35:55.160
<v Speaker 12>the big hiring story here where Davos that make you

0:35:55.239 --> 0:35:57.120
<v Speaker 12>saying this year is about AI. Last year's about AI

0:35:57.160 --> 0:35:59.040
<v Speaker 12>that you formed was at AAA that your reformers out

0:35:59.080 --> 0:36:03.480
<v Speaker 12>A nineteen. The premise was the Fourth Industrial Revolution, which

0:36:03.480 --> 0:36:04.640
<v Speaker 12>is AI without just saying it.

0:36:04.719 --> 0:36:05.880
<v Speaker 11>And so it's not a new theme.

0:36:06.680 --> 0:36:09.000
<v Speaker 12>And so I give you since the first time you

0:36:09.000 --> 0:36:11.840
<v Speaker 12>probably asked somebody who decided the pandemic say post pandemic

0:36:11.960 --> 0:36:14.960
<v Speaker 12>about is AI going to cause you to change your

0:36:15.040 --> 0:36:18.640
<v Speaker 12>hiring Let's call it four years, it's called three years.

0:36:18.800 --> 0:36:20.520
<v Speaker 11>We hired sixty five.

0:36:20.480 --> 0:36:24.040
<v Speaker 12>Thousand people Bank of America two thousand year kids out

0:36:24.080 --> 0:36:26.719
<v Speaker 12>of school plus outing in school every year now and

0:36:26.719 --> 0:36:28.480
<v Speaker 12>that's for the turn of rate eight percent we got

0:36:28.480 --> 0:36:30.920
<v Speaker 12>to hire. In the month of January, we'll hire like

0:36:30.960 --> 0:36:32.960
<v Speaker 12>thirteen hundred people and we'll have the same headcount we

0:36:33.000 --> 0:36:35.720
<v Speaker 12>had the month of December. Are these people doing exactly

0:36:35.719 --> 0:36:38.520
<v Speaker 12>what the people left? Sometimes sometimes those jobs got limited.

0:36:38.719 --> 0:36:41.319
<v Speaker 12>But that's what management is challenged, just how do you

0:36:41.360 --> 0:36:44.040
<v Speaker 12>think to make the changes. We've got to make the

0:36:44.040 --> 0:36:48.719
<v Speaker 12>transformations to make the customer experience the best it can be,

0:36:49.200 --> 0:36:51.640
<v Speaker 12>to grow the company and to manage expense. And that

0:36:51.680 --> 0:36:53.960
<v Speaker 12>means you have to really pay attention to the headcount movement.

0:36:54.120 --> 0:36:55.640
<v Speaker 11>And that's why we watch it carefully.

0:36:55.719 --> 0:36:57.160
<v Speaker 2>That's where the tension is though. I think for a

0:36:57.200 --> 0:36:59.000
<v Speaker 2>lot of people, you've got the societal problem on the

0:36:59.040 --> 0:37:00.560
<v Speaker 2>one hand and on the other hand, and you've got

0:37:00.560 --> 0:37:03.640
<v Speaker 2>the opportunity and the opportunity is to do even more

0:37:03.800 --> 0:37:06.880
<v Speaker 2>with what you've already got. And that's the productivity story,

0:37:06.920 --> 0:37:08.480
<v Speaker 2>and that's what you're selling to invest is that's the

0:37:08.480 --> 0:37:09.600
<v Speaker 2>picture of the moment, isn't it.

0:37:09.719 --> 0:37:12.440
<v Speaker 12>So we had twenty eighty five thousand people in twenty

0:37:12.640 --> 0:37:14.799
<v Speaker 12>ten when I took when the team took over, we

0:37:14.800 --> 0:37:17.359
<v Speaker 12>have two hundred twelve thousand people today, and you never

0:37:17.400 --> 0:37:21.200
<v Speaker 12>heard anything about labor dislocation because we just kept planning ahead.

0:37:21.320 --> 0:37:22.840
<v Speaker 11>But that's the application of technology.

0:37:22.920 --> 0:37:25.440
<v Speaker 12>Just take the consumer business and I showed an investor

0:37:25.480 --> 0:37:27.760
<v Speaker 12>date one hundred thousand people to fifty and make it simple.

0:37:28.080 --> 0:37:30.080
<v Speaker 11>If you look at that, the business is three.

0:37:29.960 --> 0:37:32.680
<v Speaker 12>Times as big in terms of transactions activity.

0:37:32.880 --> 0:37:34.680
<v Speaker 11>But that's the power of all You've.

0:37:34.520 --> 0:37:36.719
<v Speaker 12>Got eight devices sitting on the tables in front of

0:37:36.760 --> 0:37:38.040
<v Speaker 12>you and the internet.

0:37:37.800 --> 0:37:38.839
<v Speaker 11>Activity of what you'll do.

0:37:39.239 --> 0:37:42.719
<v Speaker 12>Two, it's a combination of AI plus alerts and things

0:37:42.719 --> 0:37:42.880
<v Speaker 12>like that.

0:37:42.920 --> 0:37:43.560
<v Speaker 11>People to get.

0:37:43.480 --> 0:37:45.520
<v Speaker 12>Focused on just you know, Erica growth in our case,

0:37:45.560 --> 0:37:48.640
<v Speaker 12>you say no, there's literally a billion alerts that go out,

0:37:48.760 --> 0:37:51.360
<v Speaker 12>which is basically ourtificial intelligence people set up in advance

0:37:51.360 --> 0:37:53.160
<v Speaker 12>to tell them things go on. You don't need them

0:37:53.160 --> 0:37:56.080
<v Speaker 12>to go into Ericuld ask this if check went through

0:37:56.080 --> 0:37:57.640
<v Speaker 12>my account above twenty five hundred.

0:37:57.360 --> 0:37:59.400
<v Speaker 1>Dollars, if you set the alerts, you said something that

0:37:59.440 --> 0:38:01.719
<v Speaker 1>we reflect on a lot on our show. You said

0:38:01.719 --> 0:38:03.600
<v Speaker 1>a lot of things, but one thing in particular, that

0:38:04.200 --> 0:38:06.879
<v Speaker 1>the business would grow, but that your staff would stay

0:38:06.920 --> 0:38:07.840
<v Speaker 1>about the same size.

0:38:07.880 --> 0:38:09.359
<v Speaker 5>And you said that about a year ago, maybe two

0:38:09.440 --> 0:38:12.200
<v Speaker 5>years ago. That's a near term phenomenon.

0:38:13.200 --> 0:38:15.600
<v Speaker 1>In five to ten years, will it be the same

0:38:16.040 --> 0:38:19.719
<v Speaker 1>or will it start to change in terms of actual shrinkage.

0:38:19.760 --> 0:38:23.440
<v Speaker 12>Well, if Havard's writers view of growth will need a

0:38:23.440 --> 0:38:25.719
<v Speaker 12>lot more human content to keep up with it, and

0:38:25.760 --> 0:38:28.280
<v Speaker 12>I'll give you this. I'll give you the historical context.

0:38:28.480 --> 0:38:31.280
<v Speaker 12>In twenty nineteen, I was in a room downstairs and

0:38:31.440 --> 0:38:33.839
<v Speaker 12>the people were bringing their hands and as the way

0:38:33.880 --> 0:38:36.480
<v Speaker 12>they do it. Davos said, Oh, this technology going to

0:38:36.480 --> 0:38:39.000
<v Speaker 12>take away the jobs. And so in preparation, I said,

0:38:39.040 --> 0:38:40.480
<v Speaker 12>I've got to give some hope here. So I went

0:38:40.480 --> 0:38:42.560
<v Speaker 12>and did the research. In nineteen sixty nine, American employeed

0:38:42.640 --> 0:38:45.719
<v Speaker 12>eighty million people. In twenty nineteen employed one hundred and

0:38:45.719 --> 0:38:47.920
<v Speaker 12>sixty million people. I think there was a lot of

0:38:47.920 --> 0:38:50.960
<v Speaker 12>technology and change. It came from nineteen sixty nine to

0:38:51.000 --> 0:38:52.040
<v Speaker 12>twenty nineteen.

0:38:53.160 --> 0:38:54.800
<v Speaker 11>None of that stuff in front of you. It was available.

0:38:55.239 --> 0:38:57.440
<v Speaker 12>Have a computer at work, you wouldn't have an email accounts.

0:38:57.440 --> 0:38:59.799
<v Speaker 12>You're still getting charged by the minute for phone calls.

0:39:00.040 --> 0:39:03.560
<v Speaker 12>Think about that change, and think about we absorbed eighty

0:39:03.600 --> 0:39:06.160
<v Speaker 12>million more people working. So I don't want to be

0:39:06.400 --> 0:39:07.920
<v Speaker 12>Pollyanna about it, but I think you have to be

0:39:07.960 --> 0:39:10.279
<v Speaker 12>optimistic that if we can grow the economy and grow

0:39:10.360 --> 0:39:12.440
<v Speaker 12>the thing we will absorb. And by the way, the

0:39:12.480 --> 0:39:17.440
<v Speaker 12>population to grow US is very modest without immigration, and

0:39:17.480 --> 0:39:20.239
<v Speaker 12>there's a natural two plus percent of the people or

0:39:20.280 --> 0:39:22.479
<v Speaker 12>whatever it is die every year. It's morbid, But that's

0:39:22.520 --> 0:39:24.840
<v Speaker 12>what happens, and so and so you have burst that

0:39:24.960 --> 0:39:27.560
<v Speaker 12>kind of replace it, and you know, and people retire.

0:39:27.600 --> 0:39:30.520
<v Speaker 12>And so that's why I think management's core challenges and

0:39:30.600 --> 0:39:33.160
<v Speaker 12>manage us through and get employees to take the spirit

0:39:33.200 --> 0:39:34.960
<v Speaker 12>and help drive the growth in the company and be

0:39:35.000 --> 0:39:37.360
<v Speaker 12>a part of the solution and help us make it happen.

0:39:37.440 --> 0:39:40.000
<v Speaker 12>And my guess is, yeah, it might incrementally move head count,

0:39:40.000 --> 0:39:42.320
<v Speaker 12>but if we manage it to attrition and retirements and stuff,

0:39:42.719 --> 0:39:43.920
<v Speaker 12>we ought to be able to manage the outcome.

0:39:44.000 --> 0:39:45.600
<v Speaker 2>How did we ever live without the flympog ton No,

0:39:46.120 --> 0:39:50.960
<v Speaker 2>what was that? An 'ren just the final question you mentioned, Howard.

0:39:51.320 --> 0:39:52.600
<v Speaker 2>We talked about it, we joked about it. How to

0:39:52.600 --> 0:39:54.560
<v Speaker 2>the start of the conversation, the relationship with the White House?

0:39:54.560 --> 0:39:56.320
<v Speaker 2>How would you characterize it in your own opinion?

0:39:56.400 --> 0:39:56.799
<v Speaker 8>Right now?

0:39:57.080 --> 0:39:59.240
<v Speaker 12>Oh, look, I got you always want to get an invitation.

0:39:59.360 --> 0:40:02.120
<v Speaker 12>This is dabus invitations show we invite you guys someplace.

0:40:02.160 --> 0:40:05.640
<v Speaker 12>You want that invitation. So the rationships good. We do

0:40:05.719 --> 0:40:07.240
<v Speaker 12>continue to give lots of ideas.

0:40:07.320 --> 0:40:09.879
<v Speaker 11>And it was ironic that what was fun.

0:40:09.960 --> 0:40:11.520
<v Speaker 12>We had a client the last night and Howard came

0:40:11.560 --> 0:40:13.440
<v Speaker 12>to talk to clients it was late as they finished

0:40:13.480 --> 0:40:16.560
<v Speaker 12>up the news on Greenland, and he was able to

0:40:16.560 --> 0:40:18.640
<v Speaker 12>come in and talk about what happened. And those were

0:40:18.680 --> 0:40:22.160
<v Speaker 12>international clients who admittedly were confused for forty eight hours,

0:40:22.400 --> 0:40:25.360
<v Speaker 12>you know. And what I've tried to do with the

0:40:25.400 --> 0:40:28.479
<v Speaker 12>administration's policies and talk, especially people outside nine States, to say,

0:40:29.080 --> 0:40:30.879
<v Speaker 12>listen to what they're saying. You can figure out what's

0:40:30.880 --> 0:40:34.440
<v Speaker 12>going to happen, but don't confuse security or the trade policy.

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<v Speaker 12>They wanted to get action, and they did, and that's

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<v Speaker 12>a great thing. And you saw you leave, aside the

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<v Speaker 12>market reaction which can go up and down on a day,

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<v Speaker 12>what you saw is the clients say, Okay, I got it.

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<v Speaker 12>Now let's go set the business plans that will help

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<v Speaker 12>have that growth in the future.

0:40:48.360 --> 0:40:51.919
<v Speaker 2>This is the Bloomberg Semendments podcast, bringing you the best

0:40:51.920 --> 0:40:55.279
<v Speaker 2>in markets, economics, angiot politics. You can watch the show

0:40:55.320 --> 0:40:58.279
<v Speaker 2>live on Bloomberg TV weekday mornings from six am to

0:40:58.400 --> 0:41:02.320
<v Speaker 2>nine am Eastern, to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or

0:41:02.400 --> 0:41:05.000
<v Speaker 2>anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg

0:41:05.080 --> 0:41:06.919
<v Speaker 2>Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app.

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<v Speaker 1>MHM