WEBVTT - Tariffs, Brexit Benefits and the Minimum Wage 

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. Welcome to the Marrin

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<v Speaker 1>Drugs Money Weekly round Up, our debrief on the biggest

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<v Speaker 1>stories in the markets and economics. I'm Marrin Sum's that

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<v Speaker 1>web editor at large for Bloomberg UK Wealth.

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<v Speaker 2>Now I'm Joined Stappeck, Senior report at Bloomberg and author

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<v Speaker 2>of the Money Distilled newsletter.

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<v Speaker 1>So, John, you know people say to us all the time,

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<v Speaker 1>can you list Brexit benefits for us? What did you

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<v Speaker 1>get out of that? What's the big win?

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<v Speaker 2>Listen?

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<v Speaker 1>And now finally here we are a couple of years

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<v Speaker 1>on admittedly, but we've got a very obvious stand up

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<v Speaker 1>Brexit benefit. We've got a very obvious stand up Brexit

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<v Speaker 1>benefit thanks to Donald Trump.

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<v Speaker 2>Yes, thank you Donald. We're going to get charged Lord Tardiff's.

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<v Speaker 2>And if we remained in the EU, which is actually

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<v Speaker 2>pretty good because it also means that we can negotiate

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<v Speaker 2>our way out of even the ten percent that we're

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<v Speaker 2>meant to be paying quite quickly, whereas if we were

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<v Speaker 2>stuck as part of the EU, then we to Macro

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<v Speaker 2>and talking a big game because he's coming up for

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<v Speaker 2>elections soon and needs to act a hard mind and

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<v Speaker 2>also whatever all the other countries decide that they want

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<v Speaker 2>to do, so it's gonna be pretty difficult to chat

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<v Speaker 2>about that one. So yeah, it is a bonus. And

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<v Speaker 2>this part of the reason, it is explicitly part of

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<v Speaker 2>the reason were left to be more flexible.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, to be inflexible, also not to get bogged down

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<v Speaker 1>and the endless negotiations. But it's first before before the

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<v Speaker 1>EU can negotiate with the US, they have to negotiate

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<v Speaker 1>with each other, and that handless and relentless and as

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<v Speaker 1>you say, tied up in an awful lot of big

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<v Speaker 1>egos and who's getting elected when and who needs to

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<v Speaker 1>look like to their own voter base, etc. And here

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<v Speaker 1>are you saying that Kirstama doesn't need to look like

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<v Speaker 1>a hard man.

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<v Speaker 2>No, I don't think he does. I think Britain when

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<v Speaker 2>it comes to the USA, there's just you know, there's

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<v Speaker 2>just the current electorate anyway, he's kind of four years

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<v Speaker 2>away from an election. You can't get much less popular anyway.

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<v Speaker 2>But also I don't I don't think that the average

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<v Speaker 2>British person is that bothered about sort of making some

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<v Speaker 2>big stand on America because at the end of the day,

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<v Speaker 2>the reason that we've got ten percent tariffs is because

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<v Speaker 2>we don't you know, we don't run a good deficit

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<v Speaker 2>with them, so it's just not that big a deal.

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<v Speaker 1>And services one included in this brand of tariffs, and

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<v Speaker 1>we are mainly a service economy for good or bad.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, yeah, and I don't think they will be no.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, this is about rebuilding America's manufacturing person it's

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<v Speaker 1>not about the services sector.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, And I said, I mean the services thing is

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<v Speaker 2>interesting too because it does tie into the Brexit stuff

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<v Speaker 2>again because one problem that we always had with the

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<v Speaker 2>EU is that the goods area was basically broadly sping

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<v Speaker 2>open borders, but we can never get any kind of

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<v Speaker 2>agreement on the services site, partly because you know, that

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<v Speaker 2>would have been more helpful for us because that's where

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<v Speaker 2>all of economy was. So it's just flagging that up again.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, it kind of stuck with a situation which

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<v Speaker 2>we were when in anything and the you know, we're

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<v Speaker 2>in a bit of possession for being liberated from that.

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<v Speaker 1>There we go see exciting times. Now this actually isn't

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<v Speaker 1>really about us, and it's not really about the UK

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<v Speaker 1>relationship with the US. This is in the main about China.

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<v Speaker 1>Pretty much. You know, the biggest tarraf is not absolutely

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<v Speaker 1>the biggest, but some of the biggest are on China

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<v Speaker 1>and Chinese goods, and added to the previous tariffs on China,

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<v Speaker 1>it doesn't make it really very high. And the same

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<v Speaker 1>for a lot of the countries that the US thinks

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<v Speaker 1>that China might run goods through to get them into

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<v Speaker 1>the US. So what we have here actually tell us

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<v Speaker 1>about the islands, John tell Us about the Islands.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I know, it's interesting because we saw quite a

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<v Speaker 2>few tweets to be talking about who Trumps slapped to

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<v Speaker 2>ten percent TATA for aliens that have done nothing more

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<v Speaker 2>than penguins level knowing them. And the mutual friend Marcus

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<v Speaker 2>as was pointed out to me that well, I said, look,

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<v Speaker 2>this isn't as daft as it looks. If you want

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<v Speaker 2>to stop ships running contraband goods, then you take a

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<v Speaker 2>look at all of the flags they might be running

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<v Speaker 2>until not just the flag is a ship. And so

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<v Speaker 2>it's the same with us. It's that you can't root

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<v Speaker 2>goods through venue I to see because suddenly it's the

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<v Speaker 2>only country in the world without any tartaffs on it.

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<v Speaker 2>So it's it's basically just covering all the bases and

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<v Speaker 2>making sure there's no look poles.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, but imagine if everyone now reached their goods through us,

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<v Speaker 1>that would be terrible finally get some use anyway, So

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<v Speaker 1>it all comes back to the fact that, I mean

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of this is going to unwind over the

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<v Speaker 1>next few days, a few weeks, a few months, or

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<v Speaker 1>the negotiations will be will begin, these tariffs stay. There

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<v Speaker 1>are lots is going to change, but nonetheless all their

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<v Speaker 1>stems right back to China entering the wto the big

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<v Speaker 1>competition globally over the last couple of decades to be

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<v Speaker 1>the I guess exporter, all this mercantilism, et cetera. It

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<v Speaker 1>comes back to the same thing we always talk about,

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<v Speaker 1>this rise of globalization that has driven inequality inside X

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<v Speaker 1>manufacturing economies X manufacturing economies of course, because all the

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<v Speaker 1>manufacturing and the high paid jobs in those areas have

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<v Speaker 1>ended up off sure driven inequality in some of the

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<v Speaker 1>Western countries. Looks like it's driven a lot of the

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<v Speaker 1>inequality in the US. And so someone was always going

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<v Speaker 1>to step in and say this doesn't work.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I mean, it is interesting because before all this

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<v Speaker 2>and before it was kind of Trump that was in charge,

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<v Speaker 2>there weren't a lot of complaints even from slightly more

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<v Speaker 2>left lean and economists. For example, Germany needed to spend

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<v Speaker 2>more and of the biggest consumer economy. People have been

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<v Speaker 2>seeing the same thing about China for years in fact,

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<v Speaker 2>I mean arguably China has sort of attempted but kind

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<v Speaker 2>of futilely a biggest consumer economy. And so again, Trump's

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<v Speaker 2>kind of just pushing for something that people have been

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<v Speaker 2>complaining about as being clearing flaws in the global economy

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<v Speaker 2>for something for my entire career. So I think you

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<v Speaker 2>might not be very happy about the way he's going

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<v Speaker 2>about it. But at the end of the day, the

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<v Speaker 2>previous softly softly approaches clearly we're not working, whereas this

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<v Speaker 2>is doing something I don't know. I think it creates

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<v Speaker 2>an awful lot of uncertainty and volatility in all the

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<v Speaker 2>rest of it. But it's definitely pushing it towards the

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<v Speaker 2>resolving the things that people have been complaining about for

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<v Speaker 2>a long time but haven't liked the potential trade offs

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<v Speaker 2>that that would imply, where the things they don't like

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<v Speaker 2>to be fixed.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, So as ever, with him, it's an amplification of

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<v Speaker 1>an existing trend. Yeah, yeah, right, speaking of which, bizarrely,

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<v Speaker 1>today on the Bloomberg UK website, the most popular article

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<v Speaker 1>is absolutely nothing to do with harr, has nothing to

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<v Speaker 1>do with global and equality, and nothing to do with Trump.

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<v Speaker 1>It's all about the UK. It's minimum wage. And you

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<v Speaker 1>wrote this, I mean, fascinating piece of this on wage

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<v Speaker 1>wage suppression in the UK. Tell me about that. I

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<v Speaker 1>agree with you. By the way, I agree with every

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<v Speaker 1>word in this article.

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<v Speaker 2>That genre really interesting. It's more you know, I've got him.

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<v Speaker 2>I was a little bit surprised they kind of mentioned

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<v Speaker 2>that this is as well, but yeah, it's basically about

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<v Speaker 2>the minimum wage going up to the point where it

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<v Speaker 2>is counter productive. And I just took a we look

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<v Speaker 2>at the statistics. So the minimum wage was introduced in

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<v Speaker 2>nineteen ninety nine and it was with three pounds sixty

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<v Speaker 2>and I heard at that point and now it's going

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<v Speaker 2>up to over twelve pounds an hour. But if you

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<v Speaker 2>look at the gap between the average elenins for a

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<v Speaker 2>forty forty nine year old in the UK, and what

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<v Speaker 2>I've done is I've just basically assumed that if you're

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<v Speaker 2>a full time worker, you can basically say that age

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<v Speaker 2>is kind of like approxate for seniority case, so a

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<v Speaker 2>full time marker in the UK in two thousand and

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<v Speaker 2>three times what a minimum wage worker got, and then

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<v Speaker 2>over the last kind of twenty five years that's falling

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<v Speaker 2>to just over twice as much. So that's called wage compression.

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<v Speaker 2>And the basic argument is that there's two problems. One

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<v Speaker 2>problem is that you're getting paid less for taking on

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<v Speaker 2>more responsibility, so it's less attractive to go for those jobs.

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<v Speaker 2>And the other big issue is that between industries it

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<v Speaker 2>gets harder a differentiat between basically jobs that most people

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<v Speaker 2>would say are easier or more appealing to do than others. So,

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<v Speaker 2>for example, you've get a choice between working a care

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<v Speaker 2>home with everything that that entails and the level of

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<v Speaker 2>actual responsibility that entails for looking after sick people and

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<v Speaker 2>actually working a relatively clean job at Tesco, say, and

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<v Speaker 2>they both pay the same amount, or you know, there's

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<v Speaker 2>only fifty per an hour in it, then it's going

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<v Speaker 2>to be much harder for the less pleasant jobs to

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<v Speaker 2>get recruited for. This has a big impact on the

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<v Speaker 2>jobs market, on the morale of people within your organizations.

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<v Speaker 2>And I suspect that this get something to do with

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<v Speaker 2>poor productivity. It's clearly not the.

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<v Speaker 1>Only issue productivity, because people don't try harder to get

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<v Speaker 1>promoted or to move up a level at work because

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<v Speaker 1>it's it's much less worth the bother than it used

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<v Speaker 1>to be.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, and then you throw in everything else that's happening well,

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<v Speaker 2>for example, obviously the marginal tax rates and the fact

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<v Speaker 2>that if you had over one hundred thousand pounds and

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<v Speaker 2>you've got kids, you can actually end up losing money

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<v Speaker 2>because you won't get your free childcare. The other thing

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<v Speaker 2>that's been happening recently that didn't put in but this

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<v Speaker 2>idea of equal pay for basically just different roles. So

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<v Speaker 2>recently there was this rule in the Asda the men

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<v Speaker 2>that because more men worked in the warehouse than women,

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<v Speaker 2>the the people on the shop floor, so we can

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<v Speaker 2>pay the same as the people in the warehouse. And

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<v Speaker 2>that is not what most people assume is meant by equality.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, equality is meant to be that if a

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<v Speaker 2>guy's sweeping the floor and a woman sweeping the floor,

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<v Speaker 2>they both get paid the same. It's not meant to

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<v Speaker 2>be that if somebody is like stacking shelves and somebody's

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<v Speaker 2>kind of running to tell that's the same job, because

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<v Speaker 2>it's not the same job. It's a different job, and

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<v Speaker 2>there should be a market rate for these jobs rather

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<v Speaker 2>than something that's imposed. The point is that there are

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<v Speaker 2>so many jobs now that basically pay the exact same

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<v Speaker 2>amount or it's very close to it, and that makes

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<v Speaker 2>it much much harder to differentiate. And then again because

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<v Speaker 2>so much money, because the minimum wage has gone up

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<v Speaker 2>so far and so fast, there's less money left over

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<v Speaker 2>for anyone not getting paid minimum wage, which means that

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<v Speaker 2>again you can't maintain the differentials, which used to be

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<v Speaker 2>a really important thing in union negotiations. I've listened to

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<v Speaker 2>a lot of the Dominic Sandbrook books about the seventies.

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<v Speaker 2>Thing that comes up a lot of the time and

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<v Speaker 2>the talks about the unions is like the wage differentials

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<v Speaker 2>really mattered. You know, those meant to be a gap

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<v Speaker 2>between the guys doing one job and the guys do

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<v Speaker 2>another job, and the ones who were you know, they

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<v Speaker 2>kind of the more senior people were very aware of

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<v Speaker 2>how much more they were meant to be getting paid

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<v Speaker 2>than the people below them. So again, if you if

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<v Speaker 2>you can compress that, then you're causing real problems in

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<v Speaker 2>terms of people's desire basically work hard.

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<v Speaker 1>That well and in terms of the status and the

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<v Speaker 1>improved lifestyle that they feel comes with working harder. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>And I suppose student loans feed into that as well,

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<v Speaker 1>don't they, Because you reach a certain a certain income,

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<v Speaker 1>relatively low income, and suddenly you've got another nine percentage

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<v Speaker 1>points of marginal tax rate. So that takes away from

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<v Speaker 1>your interest in earning more money as well. If you're

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<v Speaker 1>a graduate, which increasing numbers of people are.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, yeah, I mean Duncan Robinson and the economist too,

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<v Speaker 2>I think makes the button we'd call them, wrote something

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<v Speaker 2>but this's a couple of weeks ago and basically made

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<v Speaker 2>the point that if you work a forty hour week

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<v Speaker 2>minimum wage and the UK now you'll be getting paid

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<v Speaker 2>more than twenty five pounds a year, and twenty five

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<v Speaker 2>thousand pounds is the point at which the graduate attack

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<v Speaker 2>kicks in. So if you're a graduate, are you what

0:12:11.880 --> 0:12:14.679
<v Speaker 2>in a minimum wage job? Then you are getting less

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<v Speaker 2>than someone who they didn't graduate and is working the

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<v Speaker 2>same minimum wage job. So I mean, on the one hand,

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<v Speaker 2>the good news is that maybe people will think twice

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<v Speaker 2>about going in the unit.

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<v Speaker 1>None of these policies were intenders to bring us to

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<v Speaker 1>a world where people thought carefully about going to university

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<v Speaker 1>because they'd end up with a lower net income and

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<v Speaker 1>some working on the minimum wage.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, that's pretty counterproductive, regardless of what you think is

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<v Speaker 2>the value of a university degree.

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<v Speaker 1>Counterproductive policy. We're about to find out quite a lot

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<v Speaker 1>more about that, aren't we over the coming weeks and months.

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<v Speaker 1>The extent to which American policy is counterproductive. This is

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<v Speaker 1>bigger than whether a couple of people in the UK

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<v Speaker 1>go to university or not. We will be talking more

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<v Speaker 1>about the tariffs and the global economy over the coming week,

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<v Speaker 1>so listen in and hopefully things will begin to settle

0:13:02.360 --> 0:13:10.080
<v Speaker 1>down a little. Thanks for listening to this week's Maren

0:13:10.080 --> 0:13:12.280
<v Speaker 1>Took's Money Debrief. If you'd like a show, rate review,

0:13:12.320 --> 0:13:14.920
<v Speaker 1>and subscribe wherever you listen to podcasts. Also be sure

0:13:14.920 --> 0:13:16.560
<v Speaker 1>to follow me in John on x or Twitter at

0:13:16.559 --> 0:13:19.920
<v Speaker 1>marens w and John underscore Steppe. This episode was produced

0:13:19.920 --> 0:13:22.240
<v Speaker 1>by Moses and Questions and comments on this show and

0:13:22.320 --> 0:13:24.880
<v Speaker 1>all our shows are always welcome. Our show email is

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<v Speaker 1>marrin Money at Bloomberg dot net.