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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Ju us prow

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Speaker 1: read enough. No, we're running again, so smoothe so sweet, splendid.

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Speaker 2: Sixteen just glorious execution. Guys, all I'm looking for is

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Speaker 2: sixty percent effort four thousand percent of the time. How

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Speaker 2: shot with that?

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Speaker 1: Shop with mind? Good buddy, and.

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Speaker 2: That's why you see your beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 3: Look at his movements, the most.

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Speaker 2: Dangerous amount of the planet. Nobody picks them. Shut up,

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Speaker 2: I'm trying the one.

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Speaker 3: It's left too, the wide eyed, drilled bibus.

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Speaker 1: How old earth pick that happens? Hello, eyone, Welcome back

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Speaker 1: to Wondergo, the soccer betting podcast from the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: My name is Michael leebof Enjoining me as always are

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Speaker 1: my friends and colleagues Bjit Cunningham and Anthony Dbundo. We

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Speaker 1: just wrapped up a pretty fun day of Champions League

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Speaker 1: and now we look ahead to the wonderful world of

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Speaker 1: the Premier League and beyond. We'll touch on every single

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Speaker 1: Premier League match coming this weekend or last weekend before

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Speaker 1: an international break. Then after we go through those ten matches,

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Speaker 1: we'll touch on Bundesliga, La ligue Asiria a League all

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Speaker 1: give out three. Like underdog parlay, this one comes out

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Speaker 1: at a robust one hundred and fifty five to one,

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Speaker 1: and then give out our favorite bets for the upcoming

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Speaker 1: match week in the Premier League. But before we do

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Speaker 1: all of that, a reminder that Wonder Goal is presented

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Speaker 1: by Bet three sixty five and Bet three sixty five

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Speaker 1: doesn't do ordinary. It believes that every sport should be epic.

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Speaker 1: Every tournament, every game, every point, every play, from the

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Speaker 1: moments that are legendary to the ones that fly under

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Speaker 1: the radar. See for yourself when you sign up today

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Speaker 1: with Promo Code Action and you'll get three hundred sixty

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Speaker 1: five dollars ONUS bets when you bet just one dollar.

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Speaker 1: Whatever the sport, whatever the moment, it's never ordinary. At

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Speaker 1: Bet three sixty five, you must be twenty one or

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Speaker 1: older and you must be present in Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky,

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Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, or Virginia. And if you or someone

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Speaker 1: you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please

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Speaker 1: call one eight hundred gambler in Colorado, Kentucky, New Jersey, Ohio,

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Speaker 1: and Virginia or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa.

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Speaker 1: Terms and conditions apply all right, fun week of Premier

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Speaker 1: League soccer to look ahead to. Here, we'll start on

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Speaker 1: this on Sunday, the eleven thirty am kickoff between Chelsea

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Speaker 1: Red Hot Chelsea. We were trying to tell Antony that

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Speaker 1: the Spurs team was punching above its wait all season

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Speaker 1: long and that their reckoning was coming and it could

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Speaker 1: be coming through via Chelsea or team like that. And

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Speaker 1: he said no, no, no, But he learned the hard

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Speaker 1: way when Chelsea paced it spars for to one. The

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Speaker 1: Blues now hosts the sky Blues Man City. Chelsea's plus

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Speaker 1: four hundred at Stanford City minus one thirty four and

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Speaker 1: odds on road favorite the Draws plus two sixty. Anthony,

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Speaker 1: you and I are on the same patriot. I think

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Speaker 1: that this is a decent spot to look at the underdog.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so the market has moved in the last twelve hours.

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Speaker 2: We recorded this Wednesday night. It's a good thing we're

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Speaker 2: not recording it Wednesday right after the kickoff of it

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Speaker 2: to the games, because I was shaking violently during the

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Speaker 2: Champions League. Today went an epic sweat on some of

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Speaker 2: those late games. Copenhagen forever. But as far as this

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Speaker 2: game goes, you know, red cards again, just every big

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Speaker 2: match this season in the Premier League there's just red

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Speaker 2: cards and we never learned anything. We got like twenty

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Speaker 2: good minutes of soccer and then chaos ensued. There were

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Speaker 2: two red cards, three goals chalked off, another red card

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Speaker 2: review that could have been won. You know, it was

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Speaker 2: an absurd contest. You know, Chelsea finished with four xg

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Speaker 2: and you have to of course weighed down with Spurs

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Speaker 2: playing a high line at the halfway line down to

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Speaker 2: nine men. But I do think that if you go

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Speaker 2: back and watch, you know, kind of have that match

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Speaker 2: played out, there was only really one chance created at

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Speaker 2: eleven on eleven and it was the clear scoring opportunity

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Speaker 2: for Nico Jackson. And I think there is something to

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Speaker 2: be said for Chelsea being much better when they don't

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Speaker 2: have to try to break down a low block and

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Speaker 2: they get to play on the break a little more,

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Speaker 2: just because of how their talent is suited. And you

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Speaker 2: think of like Mudric and Jackson and Sterling, these are

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Speaker 2: players who are good running into space more than they

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Speaker 2: are good breaking down technically with precise passing. And you

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Speaker 2: saw that with Jackson. I thought, so, you know, do

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Speaker 2: they get enough time on the ball in the midfield

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Speaker 2: to exploit City here. What kind of approach does Pep take.

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Speaker 2: We've seen you know, Guardiola kind of tweak with lineups

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Speaker 2: here and mix and match. Jeremy Doku has been dynamite

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Speaker 2: for them. He was excellent in the match against Young

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Speaker 2: Boys on Tuesday. He was also great over the weekend

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Speaker 2: in their demolition of Bourne Myths. So you know, it

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Speaker 2: seems that City has figured some things out here beck

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Speaker 2: and they would not overreact to just a little bit

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Speaker 2: of a blit that they had. But from a numbers perspective,

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Speaker 2: I only make City minus one twelve here, so I

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Speaker 2: do think they're a little bit short. But now that

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Speaker 2: the market has come down, right when from minus one

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Speaker 2: fifty five all the way down to minus one twenty

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Speaker 2: five one thirty now at most books, I don't have

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Speaker 2: enough for me to go to Chelsea here, so I'm

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Speaker 2: going to be passing unless it gets back up to

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Speaker 2: that three quarters of a goal. I kind of need

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Speaker 2: the three quarters because I have City as a close

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Speaker 2: enough favorite once you take out the vig that it's

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Speaker 2: not really a plus bet for me to make either side.

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Speaker 2: And I think that, you know, Chelsea is clearly trending up.

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Speaker 2: And like I said, the defensive press was really good

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Speaker 2: against Spurs before the Reds, but not quite good enough

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Speaker 2: of a number yet, So I will be passing at

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Speaker 2: this number.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think Chelsea on the money line is worth

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Speaker 1: the look, and I don't think it's going to shorten

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Speaker 1: too much more. I think the only other direction this

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Speaker 1: line moves is towards City. The money camps comes in

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Speaker 1: Chelsea and then we'll see when the resistance comes from

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Speaker 1: the market of pushing back up. But uh, like we've

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Speaker 1: known kind of throughout this whole season that Chelsea their

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Speaker 1: their main bugaboo. Like the process looks fine, just that

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Speaker 1: they don't score, which is a pretty important thing and

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Speaker 1: it's soccer, and if they do figure it out, and

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Speaker 1: the game got wonky with Spurs obviously, but if they

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Speaker 1: do figure it out or they have their their scoring

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Speaker 1: boots on, they can play with anybody in any league.

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Speaker 1: That the inverse of that is that they can lose

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Speaker 1: to anyone if they don't have them on. But the

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Speaker 1: underlying numbers look good enough here that I'm willing to

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Speaker 1: take a shot that that maybe this Chelsea team goes

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Speaker 1: into the international break pretty hot and I will. I

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Speaker 1: haven't really bet against City on the money line much

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Speaker 1: this season, so something I did to just great success

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Speaker 1: last year, I'm probably gonna gonna hop on with Chelsea here.

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Speaker 3: BJ Yeah, I agree, I'll make it three for three.

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Speaker 3: I think the match against arsena in my opinion, is

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Speaker 3: the best that Chelsea has looked out of possession against

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Speaker 3: a good build up team. I thought they did a

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Speaker 3: great job of disrupting Arsenal's build up play, forced a

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Speaker 3: lot of high turnovers in that match. And what Poachtino

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Speaker 3: did so he didn't really play a lot of strikers,

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Speaker 3: he played more of wingers, midfielders and played a four

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Speaker 3: to four to two and essentially just said, Okay, we're

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Speaker 3: not going to have the ball in this match, so

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Speaker 3: let's just try to play out of possession, playing transition

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Speaker 3: and enforce those high turnovers. And it worked and they

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Speaker 3: were for the large stretch of the match, the better team.

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Speaker 3: The biggest thing for me is Anthony mentioned with Doku

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Speaker 3: and Grealish right now, they are just cooking guys in

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Speaker 3: one v one situations because obviously City loves to overload

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Speaker 3: the middle of the pitch. They get those guy guys

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Speaker 3: in one on ones they can beat their defenders and

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Speaker 3: create chances out wide. Chelsea against Tottenham started Levi Coell

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Speaker 3: and Reyes James. Those are two really good defenders in

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Speaker 3: wide areas who can give Doku and Grealish some problems.

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Speaker 3: So I think Chelsea's plan and obviously having Enzo Fernandez

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Speaker 3: and Casedo in the middle of the pitch helps when

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Speaker 3: you're trying to face team that wants to play through

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Speaker 3: the middle. So I think the defensive setup for Chelsea

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Speaker 3: can give City a lot of problems. Now, City out

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Speaker 3: of possession is kind of interesting because they're actually being

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Speaker 3: a lot more passive this season they have been in

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Speaker 3: years past. Their twelfth and passes per defensive action right now,

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Speaker 3: twelfth in opponent build up, completion percentage allowed, eighth and

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Speaker 3: high turnvers. Like that's not what we're used to seeing

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Speaker 3: from City. Yes, they've pressed some of the bad teams

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Speaker 3: and forced them, but if we look through City, yes

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Speaker 3: they look create the last four matches fifteen goals. They're

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Speaker 3: just they're cooking all of these bad teams. But the

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Speaker 3: two matches before those four were against Brighton and against Arsenal,

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Speaker 3: which they against Brighton they scored early twice and then

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Speaker 3: for the second half they got out played. And against

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Speaker 3: Arsenal it was a very even match with just not

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Speaker 3: a lot happening. But City only took four shots in

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Speaker 3: that Arsenal match. So this is a spot that I

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Speaker 3: think it's a decent spot to them. I'm with Anthony.

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Speaker 3: I have City at plus one on one, so decent

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Speaker 3: edge on Chelsea plus a half at plus one ten.

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Speaker 3: I would like to see plus one fifteen for a

175
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Speaker 3: little bit more juice, But I mean, listen, Chelsea's played

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Speaker 3: three big six sides this season plus brighton League Cup.

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Speaker 3: They haven't lost any of those matches, so they clearly

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Speaker 3: are good enough to hang with City here. So yeah,

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Speaker 3: Chelsea plus a half if it gets to plus one

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Speaker 3: fifteen for me, Yeah.

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Speaker 2: That's the thing, right. If you were to say what

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Speaker 2: were the whole season, all in all, what were Chelsea's

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Speaker 2: three best games? You'd probably say opening day Liverpool, You'd

184
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Speaker 2: probably say Arsenal, and then you'd probably I mean, a

185
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Speaker 2: League Cup is so corny, but you either say Fulham

186
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Speaker 2: or you'd say Spurs. I mean Spurs was also kind

187
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Speaker 2: of floky, but like they had taken control of that

188
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Speaker 2: game after the deflected goal. So there is something to

189
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Speaker 2: be said for the fact that you played your three

190
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Speaker 2: best games against three of the toughest teams. You're going

191
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Speaker 2: to play all year three of the teams that will

192
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Speaker 2: hold them most possession against you, and I think that's

193
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Speaker 2: worth something when when you see how this Chelsea team plays.

194
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Speaker 2: So we're getting close to the Chris and Kunku return.

195
00:10:07,600 --> 00:10:10,079
Speaker 2: They're thinking December for him, so he may be back

196
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Speaker 2: for the festive period. That would be a fascinating experience

197
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Speaker 2: going forward, and it might be, uh might be really interesting,

198
00:10:18,480 --> 00:10:18,839
Speaker 2: all right.

199
00:10:19,080 --> 00:10:24,440
Speaker 1: Wolverhampton and Tip top Tottenham next, Wolves plus two twenty

200
00:10:24,440 --> 00:10:28,000
Speaker 1: five at home, Spurs plus one fifteen road favorite and

201
00:10:28,040 --> 00:10:31,000
Speaker 1: the Jaws plus two sixty. These odds obviously are from

202
00:10:31,040 --> 00:10:35,679
Speaker 1: my friends at bet three sixty five. BJ I got

203
00:10:35,720 --> 00:10:36,160
Speaker 1: nothing to here.

204
00:10:36,280 --> 00:10:39,280
Speaker 3: I want to talk about what happened during the Chelsea

205
00:10:39,400 --> 00:10:41,360
Speaker 3: Tottenham match with the market because it's maybe one of

206
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Speaker 3: the most insane things I've ever seen since I've been

207
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Speaker 3: betting soccer. So obviously Madison or excuse me, the Romero

208
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Speaker 3: red card happens, so he's out for the next match,

209
00:10:52,000 --> 00:10:56,000
Speaker 3: and then simultaneously Madison goes down and then Van Derven

210
00:10:56,040 --> 00:10:57,760
Speaker 3: pulls up with looks like going to be a long

211
00:10:57,840 --> 00:11:01,439
Speaker 3: term injury with his hamstring. And I was watching the market,

212
00:11:01,480 --> 00:11:03,680
Speaker 3: I know Anthony was two, and I was trying to

213
00:11:03,679 --> 00:11:06,360
Speaker 3: bet Wolves plus one and I had it up there,

214
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Speaker 3: and it was because Tottenham was minus one fifty coming

215
00:11:08,960 --> 00:11:11,319
Speaker 3: into the match over Wool against.

216
00:11:11,000 --> 00:11:13,600
Speaker 2: Wolves and there's too high to begin with, which was too.

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Speaker 3: High to begin with, and Tottenham crashed all the way

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Speaker 3: down to one point at plus just plus one twenty

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Speaker 3: in the money line. They moved seventy cents in the

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Speaker 3: matter of maybe like fifteen minutes. It was one of

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Speaker 3: the most insane things I've seen since I've been betting soccer.

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Speaker 3: So the point of it is that I think this

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Speaker 3: is an opportunity to maybe pass or potentially by low

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Speaker 3: on Tottenham. We're going to see a makeshift back line

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Speaker 3: obviously with no Romero and no Van Deven, which is concerning,

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Speaker 3: but again Wolves doesn't have Pagro Nato, so uh that's

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Speaker 3: also concerning because now listen, Wolves can play good in

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Speaker 3: transition if Totenham wants to play a high line, and

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Speaker 3: that's the concern here for Tottenham, but it does look

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Speaker 3: like James Madison might play in this match, which Tottenhams

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Speaker 3: attack would still be pretty much full strength. So going

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Speaker 3: up against a Wolves defense that has largely been below

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Speaker 3: average this season, the price on Tottenham may have gone

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Speaker 3: a little bit too far. We're not there yet, you know.

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Speaker 3: If this closes, you know, somewhere aund plus twenty twenty

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Speaker 3: five plus one thirty, maybe I'll hop back in on

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Speaker 3: on Tottenham and just try to you know, break even

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Speaker 3: in this match. But yeah, I think the value has

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Speaker 3: gone on them from what happened in that match. But

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Speaker 3: this is a good match if you're somebody who's like,

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Speaker 3: you know, I understand it's the standalone seven thirty am match,

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Speaker 3: but it is a really good match to just watch

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Speaker 3: to learn of what Toddham's gonna be like without these

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Speaker 3: two center backs, honestly, because with the Romero Red Car,

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Speaker 3: that's gonna be three matches and vand Evn's gonna be

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Speaker 3: out for a long time. So I'm gonna watch and

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Speaker 3: I'm gonna learn, and i'm gonna see what Totdam is

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Speaker 3: like when they're full strength without their two main center backs.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, we're expecting a Van Deven update Thursday from mister Postacoglu.

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Speaker 2: I'm not sure about that yet. He has not nothing's

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Speaker 2: been reported, but yeah, you figure that's at least a month.

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Speaker 2: So you know the system that I so I waxed

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Speaker 2: poetically about last week where I said, yeah, they're playing

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Speaker 2: this high line, but look at how good they've improved

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Speaker 2: the defense with Romero, Ven Deven and Udogi. Well, all

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Speaker 2: three of them will not be playing in this match.

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Speaker 2: Dire and Hoiberg like.

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Speaker 3: It's Ben Davies, maybe Ben Davies.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so you know, it's just not as it's not

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Speaker 2: as youthful, it's not as athletic, it's not as dynamic,

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Speaker 2: there's not as much ball winning. So I think there's

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Speaker 2: some real questions about you know, the biggest question we

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Speaker 2: have with Spurs, and we said, look like they have

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Speaker 2: this advantage. They're not in Europe playing one match a

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Speaker 2: week for the rest of the season. They have no depth.

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Speaker 2: And now the lack of depth is glaring because they

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Speaker 2: had like four injuries slash red card suspensions in a week.

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Speaker 2: So you know, we'll see with Matters if he's out,

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Speaker 2: Like it gets really thin with this attack because Charleston

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Speaker 2: is now out. Brandan Johnson has been okay, kol Sevsky's

271
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Speaker 2: not going to give you a ton of shots. So

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Speaker 2: it really starts to get like this is an average

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Speaker 2: Premier League team, and an average Premier League team should

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Speaker 2: be plus one twenty on the road at Wolves. So

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Speaker 2: I think the markets right now, but you're never going

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Speaker 2: to see those those minus money prices. And yeah, you know,

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Speaker 2: like that look aheadline was too high anyway. I would

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Speaker 2: have been on Wolves for full strength burst too, So

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Speaker 2: I think Wolves. You know, they didn't play as well,

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Speaker 2: they weren't as clinical maybe, but they still created a

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Speaker 2: good number of chances against Sheffield. They just didn't finish

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Speaker 2: them and then they got you know, varred or penaltied

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Speaker 2: in stoppage time and they gave up two shots in

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Speaker 2: the first eighty minutes, one of which was the goal

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Speaker 2: from thirty yards out. Like, I didn't think they played

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Speaker 2: bad against Sheffield, so I don't really dowgrade them from

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Speaker 2: that loss.

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Speaker 1: It's a fun game for US Arsenal now playing minus

289
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Speaker 1: five hundred at home yep to Burnley sixteen to on

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Speaker 1: the draw is plus five fifty.

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Speaker 2: Almost pitch a shot out today.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, they've been doing that.

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Speaker 2: One shot for Seville at the very end in stoppage

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Speaker 2: time from outside the box.

295
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Speaker 3: It's maybe, like, you know, this defense is actually really

296
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Speaker 3: good and maybe we're just not focusing on that.

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Speaker 1: There are no this is I don't think we ever.

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Speaker 1: I don't think we. Yeah, I don't think we. We

299
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Speaker 1: did criticize the defense at the end of last year

300
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Speaker 1: when they started to be bad. You're just asking way

301
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Speaker 1: too much of a team that doesn't score enough, generate

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Speaker 1: enough at these kind of numbers.

303
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Speaker 3: So it's it's but, but I understand that point. But

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Speaker 3: Burnley's style of plays them extremely open to get absolutely

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Speaker 3: waxed in this matter.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's just about to say like they they they

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Speaker 1: I have no interest. Yeah, they stink is a I

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Speaker 1: if you if you was like just giving me, giving

309
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Speaker 1: me looting down at this number, like I'd be pumped,

310
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Speaker 1: you know. But Burnley are Kamakazi, So I don't. I

311
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Speaker 1: don't want to bet that kind of underdog. I will

312
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Speaker 1: bet almost any underdog. I've been betting the San Jose Sharks.

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Speaker 1: Uh did they did? And I will say this, if

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Speaker 1: you do like hockey and you want to listen to

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Speaker 1: our betting podcast called Line Change, you should Tomorrow's Sharks

316
00:16:20,120 --> 00:16:22,960
Speaker 1: Oilers game is one of the betting events of the

317
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Speaker 1: season in terms of same game parlays and stuff like that.

318
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Speaker 1: But I digress. If a team's gonna play Arsenal like

319
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Speaker 1: in a stoic, pragmatic way, they become very very interesting

320
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Speaker 1: as an underdog at these prices, if they're gonna play

321
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Speaker 1: like they're like they are, like they're Barcelona in two

322
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Speaker 1: thousand and six. Like, I don't Who's Who's the Lionel

323
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Speaker 1: Messi at Burnley? Like? What is going on here? Yeah?

324
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Speaker 2: Putting up some okay numbers everyone, he's.

325
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Speaker 1: He's the difference maker here. Just get the get the

326
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Speaker 1: ball on his feet. He can beat Arsenal on his own.

327
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Speaker 1: No interest.

328
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Speaker 3: I have some interest. It's one of my favorite bets.

329
00:17:05,240 --> 00:17:06,840
Speaker 3: I'm just going to better here. I did it last

330
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Speaker 3: week and it worked. Both teams score now minus one fifty.

331
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Speaker 3: I don't see how Burnley scores here. I really don't.

332
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Speaker 3: I mean I talked about it last week. They are

333
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Speaker 3: averaging point eight seven non penalty X cheap or ninety minutes.

334
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Speaker 3: It wasn't for Sheffield United, that'd be the worst in

335
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Speaker 3: the Premier League and given their style of play there

336
00:17:27,720 --> 00:17:30,439
Speaker 3: build out of the back, pragmatic, try to play the

337
00:17:30,440 --> 00:17:33,200
Speaker 3: ball through the lines. That's not going to work against

338
00:17:33,240 --> 00:17:35,199
Speaker 3: one of the best out of possession and pressing teams

339
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Speaker 3: in the entire world. And the problem with Burnley is

340
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Speaker 3: they don't know how to play another way. This is

341
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Speaker 3: the only way they know how to play. And it's

342
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Speaker 3: very very clear that, especially out of possession, that they

343
00:17:46,760 --> 00:17:50,240
Speaker 3: are set up to high press and try to cause turnovers,

344
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Speaker 3: but they're not good at doing it. They're twelfth and

345
00:17:53,920 --> 00:17:58,639
Speaker 3: passes per defensive action fourteenth and high turnovers. Like for

346
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Speaker 3: a team that's going to press with the front, that's

347
00:18:00,520 --> 00:18:07,400
Speaker 3: that's terrible. Plus Arsenal defensively is maybe the best team

348
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Speaker 3: in the world right now. They are so so good

349
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Speaker 3: and if you look at their last three matches, Sheffield

350
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Speaker 3: United took took two shots combined point zero three x

351
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Speaker 3: g Newcastle. If it wasn't for the controversial Gordon tap in,

352
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Speaker 3: Newcastle would have created not a goal. It would if

353
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Speaker 3: it was not a goal.

354
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Speaker 2: Newcastle would for twenty years not a goal.

355
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Speaker 3: It would have created point four to six expected goals

356
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Speaker 3: at home. And then in like Anthony mentioned today, against Sevilla,

357
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Speaker 3: one shot in stoppage time that is a grand total

358
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Speaker 3: of essentially, if you take away the Gordon goal, it's

359
00:18:50,600 --> 00:18:53,320
Speaker 3: essentially half an expected goal in their last three matches.

360
00:18:53,359 --> 00:18:57,880
Speaker 3: That is an incredibly impressive mark. And this defense just

361
00:18:58,080 --> 00:19:01,159
Speaker 3: doesn't allow you to get out in transition if you

362
00:19:01,200 --> 00:19:03,520
Speaker 3: can't build up through them, because they're too good at pressing,

363
00:19:04,119 --> 00:19:08,160
Speaker 3: and they're still good on set pieces too, which Burnley's

364
00:19:08,200 --> 00:19:11,399
Speaker 3: not great at those either. Burnley, Okay, here's the trivia

365
00:19:11,480 --> 00:19:15,000
Speaker 3: question for you, guys. Burnley scored three goals away from

366
00:19:15,000 --> 00:19:18,320
Speaker 3: home this season. Two of them came against Lootontown. Who

367
00:19:18,359 --> 00:19:21,880
Speaker 3: did the other goal come against City?

368
00:19:22,040 --> 00:19:23,080
Speaker 1: No, that City was at home.

369
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Speaker 3: Yeah, Bournemouth is the answer to that question. Burnley also

370
00:19:29,320 --> 00:19:31,560
Speaker 3: hasn't they've They've played all the Big six teams at home.

371
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Speaker 3: They haven't played on the road the season at a

372
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Speaker 3: Big six club. When they went to Newcastle they got stomped.

373
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Speaker 3: So I really don't see how they score now. As

374
00:19:39,920 --> 00:19:43,320
Speaker 3: for Arsenal, no oda guard is concerning right now. He's

375
00:19:44,720 --> 00:19:46,640
Speaker 3: a very very big gap in the middle of the pitch.

376
00:19:46,680 --> 00:19:50,120
Speaker 3: Everts hasn't really been able to solidify that role very well.

377
00:19:51,160 --> 00:19:53,320
Speaker 3: It's been just a lot of soccer on Martinelli out wide.

378
00:19:53,880 --> 00:19:56,160
Speaker 3: I thought Arsenal offensively looked good today. They actually try

379
00:19:56,160 --> 00:19:57,440
Speaker 3: to play through the middle of the pitch, which was

380
00:19:57,640 --> 00:20:01,639
Speaker 3: an encouraging sign. But this could get really out of

381
00:20:01,720 --> 00:20:03,960
Speaker 3: hand if Burnley just keeps trying to press and keeps

382
00:20:04,000 --> 00:20:05,960
Speaker 3: trying to build out of the back and continues to

383
00:20:06,000 --> 00:20:07,960
Speaker 3: turn the ball over. So both teams just going now

384
00:20:08,119 --> 00:20:11,879
Speaker 3: minus one fifty projected at minus one eighty four, one

385
00:20:11,880 --> 00:20:13,840
Speaker 3: of the biggest edges I have on this slate.

386
00:20:14,240 --> 00:20:16,200
Speaker 2: We haven't had enough of those from BJ this year.

387
00:20:16,480 --> 00:20:19,840
Speaker 2: I know, became a league again.

388
00:20:20,080 --> 00:20:21,400
Speaker 3: I know, it's unfortunate.

389
00:20:22,880 --> 00:20:25,680
Speaker 1: You know who. I think Burnley is going to be

390
00:20:25,760 --> 00:20:28,680
Speaker 1: live against Everdon. Uh whoa.

391
00:20:28,800 --> 00:20:30,000
Speaker 3: Everything just pumped them in the league.

392
00:20:30,160 --> 00:20:31,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, I know, but that's the lead Cup. I think

393
00:20:31,720 --> 00:20:34,560
Speaker 1: that one shot in that it's the league Cup.

394
00:20:34,800 --> 00:20:37,240
Speaker 2: Everton is live against everybody because they're well.

395
00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:41,120
Speaker 1: We'll talk about them right now. Actually, uh Pallas plus

396
00:20:41,200 --> 00:20:45,960
Speaker 1: one forty hosting tip top Everden plus two hundred coming

397
00:20:46,000 --> 00:20:49,680
Speaker 1: off of one one draw against Brighton. Uh yeah, the

398
00:20:49,840 --> 00:20:51,919
Speaker 1: goals they did. I mean, nobody nobody comes to good

399
00:20:51,920 --> 00:20:54,400
Speaker 1: to some parking place this this Everdon team.

400
00:20:55,000 --> 00:20:56,440
Speaker 2: At some point we're gonna have to do the Charles

401
00:20:56,520 --> 00:20:59,840
Speaker 2: Barkley meme dialogue about bar Brighton. Maybe we'll save that

402
00:21:00,000 --> 00:21:01,120
Speaker 2: when they played a good team again.

403
00:21:01,200 --> 00:21:05,800
Speaker 1: But yeah, well, I like Everdon here as a as

404
00:21:05,840 --> 00:21:09,000
Speaker 1: a two to one dog on the road. We love

405
00:21:09,080 --> 00:21:13,320
Speaker 1: Betting Crystal Palace as a underdock, not wholly interested in

406
00:21:13,720 --> 00:21:15,840
Speaker 1: them as a as a favorite even at home, And

407
00:21:16,760 --> 00:21:19,000
Speaker 1: like this, this game can go in a lot of

408
00:21:19,040 --> 00:21:22,639
Speaker 1: different directions. I think you've got one team that is

409
00:21:24,200 --> 00:21:26,879
Speaker 1: much more pragmatic in Crystal Palace, but at home, like

410
00:21:26,920 --> 00:21:28,919
Speaker 1: they should be, and against a team like Everton, they

411
00:21:28,960 --> 00:21:33,520
Speaker 1: should be a little more swashbuckling to borrow a phrase

412
00:21:33,600 --> 00:21:39,200
Speaker 1: from our friends overseas, and that should play into Evertten's hands.

413
00:21:39,240 --> 00:21:41,680
Speaker 1: But as Anthony just said, like Everdon is just playing

414
00:21:41,760 --> 00:21:47,200
Speaker 1: really well, So I think that they're a better team

415
00:21:47,200 --> 00:21:50,000
Speaker 1: the Crystal Palace right now, especially with the injuries. Everden's

416
00:21:50,040 --> 00:21:53,040
Speaker 1: been healthy for a few weeks now and Decore might

417
00:21:53,080 --> 00:21:56,080
Speaker 1: be hurt, didn't seem like a big deal. But even so,

418
00:21:56,200 --> 00:21:57,920
Speaker 1: like they've got enough bodies in the midfield in the

419
00:21:57,960 --> 00:22:00,399
Speaker 1: middle of the park that I think you they'll be

420
00:22:00,400 --> 00:22:04,960
Speaker 1: able to survive that one. What do you think, BJ, I.

421
00:22:05,000 --> 00:22:07,600
Speaker 3: Think I'm going to pass and I think we need

422
00:22:07,680 --> 00:22:09,680
Speaker 3: to talk about what Sean Diych has been doing the

423
00:22:09,760 --> 00:22:12,000
Speaker 3: last few matches. I understand they went up on Brighton

424
00:22:12,080 --> 00:22:16,080
Speaker 3: early and they played very very low, very very defensive,

425
00:22:16,119 --> 00:22:19,280
Speaker 3: and it worked for pretty much the entire match. But

426
00:22:19,400 --> 00:22:21,879
Speaker 3: even the match before that against west Ham, it was

427
00:22:22,040 --> 00:22:24,800
Speaker 3: a very relatively boring match. They didn't really do their

428
00:22:24,840 --> 00:22:27,879
Speaker 3: normal high pressing and we can go back further. Obviously

429
00:22:27,920 --> 00:22:31,159
Speaker 3: against Liverpool they got the red card and basically had

430
00:22:31,200 --> 00:22:34,119
Speaker 3: to defend for their lives the entire match. But so

431
00:22:34,280 --> 00:22:35,880
Speaker 3: is Dice going back on his old ways.

432
00:22:35,960 --> 00:22:40,080
Speaker 1: No, I think he's just very adaptable. He's an adaptable manager,

433
00:22:40,520 --> 00:22:42,800
Speaker 1: like he's he's he's one of the few I think

434
00:22:42,880 --> 00:22:46,840
Speaker 1: that goes into every like each match and is happy

435
00:22:46,920 --> 00:22:48,600
Speaker 1: to tinker. I think.

436
00:22:48,680 --> 00:22:50,680
Speaker 2: I think there's absolutely a little bit of that. I

437
00:22:50,760 --> 00:22:53,160
Speaker 2: think I think the difference now and it's kind of weird,

438
00:22:53,240 --> 00:22:55,639
Speaker 2: right because we talked about Everton in the early season.

439
00:22:55,680 --> 00:22:57,840
Speaker 2: We're like, well, the attackers stink, but they're still creating

440
00:22:57,840 --> 00:23:00,800
Speaker 2: a lot of chances because they're so open, are forcing

441
00:23:00,880 --> 00:23:04,800
Speaker 2: more people forward because the attackers stink, And then the

442
00:23:04,840 --> 00:23:07,680
Speaker 2: good ones came in and now Diish is saying, well,

443
00:23:08,240 --> 00:23:09,959
Speaker 2: we don't have to attack with as many people now

444
00:23:10,040 --> 00:23:12,840
Speaker 2: because the ones we are attacking with are better, and

445
00:23:12,920 --> 00:23:15,760
Speaker 2: thus we're not doing as much attacking and we're still

446
00:23:15,840 --> 00:23:18,720
Speaker 2: kind of squeaking by, Like you know, they they pressed

447
00:23:18,760 --> 00:23:21,040
Speaker 2: Brighton early in the game, but then very much sat off,

448
00:23:21,160 --> 00:23:24,520
Speaker 2: sat deep in the entire match. This is the kind

449
00:23:24,560 --> 00:23:26,159
Speaker 2: of match where, like, I don't really have to love

450
00:23:26,160 --> 00:23:28,240
Speaker 2: a pregame side, but I think either side goes up

451
00:23:28,280 --> 00:23:30,000
Speaker 2: a goal, you got to look for like a live

452
00:23:30,119 --> 00:23:33,680
Speaker 2: under because Palace can shut it down and and make

453
00:23:33,720 --> 00:23:37,119
Speaker 2: it really hard on Everton, who still even with the

454
00:23:37,160 --> 00:23:40,080
Speaker 2: way they play, is very root. One prefers to have

455
00:23:40,160 --> 00:23:42,080
Speaker 2: the other team have the ball, and Pallas says, go

456
00:23:42,119 --> 00:23:45,320
Speaker 2: ahead and have the ball, challenge you to break us down,

457
00:23:45,720 --> 00:23:48,840
Speaker 2: and Everton on the on the opposite front, like we

458
00:23:48,960 --> 00:23:50,840
Speaker 2: now have a couple of games where when they do

459
00:23:50,960 --> 00:23:53,520
Speaker 2: take the lead, they are sitting off a lot and

460
00:23:53,680 --> 00:23:57,400
Speaker 2: not really committing numbers to you know, creating those high turnovers,

461
00:23:57,520 --> 00:23:59,719
Speaker 2: and they're not a build up possession team at all,

462
00:23:59,800 --> 00:24:02,680
Speaker 2: So we start every possession in their own half. It's

463
00:24:02,720 --> 00:24:05,560
Speaker 2: hard for them to score. They need those high turnovers

464
00:24:05,560 --> 00:24:08,520
Speaker 2: to create chances, so yeah, I think this is like

465
00:24:09,080 --> 00:24:11,919
Speaker 2: from a pregame perspective, I have Everton above Palace. Now

466
00:24:12,280 --> 00:24:15,480
Speaker 2: have Everton is the eleventh best team in the Premier League,

467
00:24:16,520 --> 00:24:20,320
Speaker 2: which is about Palace. But I think the line's kind

468
00:24:20,320 --> 00:24:22,720
Speaker 2: of right with Palace at home here as as back,

469
00:24:23,640 --> 00:24:26,240
Speaker 2: so that's encouraging for their attack, like you know they're

470
00:24:26,280 --> 00:24:29,119
Speaker 2: going to have somebody to carry the ball forward. But

471
00:24:30,200 --> 00:24:32,080
Speaker 2: I don't really think this is a great like the

472
00:24:32,119 --> 00:24:34,240
Speaker 2: on two and a half is super juiced, so like

473
00:24:34,240 --> 00:24:35,480
Speaker 2: if you get like an early goal and you can

474
00:24:35,520 --> 00:24:38,479
Speaker 2: get a three, juice love it. Don't really see how

475
00:24:38,520 --> 00:24:42,520
Speaker 2: this game becomes particularly open because I really think whoever

476
00:24:42,600 --> 00:24:46,040
Speaker 2: does get the lead their defense, either by numbers or

477
00:24:46,040 --> 00:24:48,840
Speaker 2: by talent. It's good enough to kind of grind this game,

478
00:24:49,160 --> 00:24:51,480
Speaker 2: So I don't really see a ton of scoring.

479
00:24:51,560 --> 00:24:53,840
Speaker 3: If you're an older listener to Wonder goal, we're happy.

480
00:24:53,880 --> 00:24:55,520
Speaker 3: First of all, we're happy to have you. And if

481
00:24:55,520 --> 00:24:58,359
Speaker 3: you're a fan of old school tactics, this is the

482
00:24:58,440 --> 00:25:02,000
Speaker 3: match for you. None of this non new school high pressing,

483
00:25:02,160 --> 00:25:06,240
Speaker 3: high possession build up structure. Just root one, play the

484
00:25:06,280 --> 00:25:08,200
Speaker 3: ball along, let's win some duels in the middle of

485
00:25:08,200 --> 00:25:10,360
Speaker 3: the pitch and that's what you're gonna see pretty much

486
00:25:10,359 --> 00:25:14,959
Speaker 3: for all ninety minutes. So this definitely agree with Anthony

487
00:25:15,000 --> 00:25:16,320
Speaker 3: Live under is the only way to.

488
00:25:16,320 --> 00:25:18,160
Speaker 1: Play it all right. Time for the game of the week.

489
00:25:18,400 --> 00:25:21,120
Speaker 1: I am so excited to bet Lowton Town against Manchester

490
00:25:21,280 --> 00:25:24,840
Speaker 1: United United minus three hundred at home, the Hatters coming

491
00:25:24,840 --> 00:25:26,560
Speaker 1: in at eight to one and the draws plus four

492
00:25:26,560 --> 00:25:28,879
Speaker 1: to twenty five. I think there's a couple of ways

493
00:25:28,920 --> 00:25:32,280
Speaker 1: here that United loses this match. One, they're not very good,

494
00:25:32,320 --> 00:25:36,200
Speaker 1: they're not good defensively at two yeah and reason but

495
00:25:36,359 --> 00:25:40,680
Speaker 1: like so that's like the actual on field play. Number

496
00:25:40,720 --> 00:25:43,600
Speaker 1: two is got kind of a lame duck coach situation,

497
00:25:43,760 --> 00:25:46,440
Speaker 1: lame duck manager. A lot of times in other sports,

498
00:25:46,600 --> 00:25:50,560
Speaker 1: well you'll see teams kind of lose the plot a

499
00:25:50,600 --> 00:25:53,800
Speaker 1: little bit as situations like this around way their manager

500
00:25:53,880 --> 00:25:58,119
Speaker 1: out and it's so toxic. I would I would have

501
00:25:58,320 --> 00:26:00,359
Speaker 1: if I'm man United, I would have much did this

502
00:26:00,480 --> 00:26:03,840
Speaker 1: game be at Kenilworth Road or played in Riot or

503
00:26:04,760 --> 00:26:07,720
Speaker 1: in Boca Verton or something, because the last place on

504
00:26:07,800 --> 00:26:10,679
Speaker 1: the planet I'd want to be on Saturday is at

505
00:26:10,720 --> 00:26:12,920
Speaker 1: Old Trafford. They're gonna get booed as they come out

506
00:26:13,000 --> 00:26:14,800
Speaker 1: if they were. If they were playing hockey and Kinada,

507
00:26:14,800 --> 00:26:16,680
Speaker 1: there'd be a jersey on the ice like this is

508
00:26:16,840 --> 00:26:19,960
Speaker 1: so bad. And Luton Town's boyant right now, like they've

509
00:26:20,000 --> 00:26:24,080
Speaker 1: been decent for relative to their expectations. They're coming off

510
00:26:24,600 --> 00:26:28,080
Speaker 1: maybe their most impressive performance in in the history of

511
00:26:28,359 --> 00:26:30,920
Speaker 1: the club, a one to one draw against Liverpool in

512
00:26:30,960 --> 00:26:34,359
Speaker 1: which they were relatively unlucky to not get out of

513
00:26:34,400 --> 00:26:36,760
Speaker 1: there with three points because there was a classic late

514
00:26:36,920 --> 00:26:41,360
Speaker 1: winner for or late equalizer for for Liverpool. That's yeah,

515
00:26:41,440 --> 00:26:42,480
Speaker 1: but when you.

516
00:26:42,520 --> 00:26:46,159
Speaker 2: Looked Darwin would disagree with that statement.

517
00:26:46,640 --> 00:26:50,800
Speaker 1: Anyways. The point is I say this a lot. Who

518
00:26:50,920 --> 00:26:54,520
Speaker 1: on Earth is betting Manchester United at this number? Well,

519
00:26:54,560 --> 00:26:55,920
Speaker 1: it did come down as it should.

520
00:26:56,720 --> 00:26:58,399
Speaker 2: I wanted to bet, I wanted to pet Luton, but

521
00:26:58,440 --> 00:27:01,000
Speaker 2: then it came really far down the flat one and

522
00:27:01,040 --> 00:27:06,440
Speaker 2: a half. Now that being said, how many matches do

523
00:27:06,440 --> 00:27:07,280
Speaker 2: you think United's won?

524
00:27:07,320 --> 00:27:10,560
Speaker 1: By digging into this, I did an article on the

525
00:27:10,600 --> 00:27:15,520
Speaker 1: New York Post for their match against Copenhagen. They beat

526
00:27:15,520 --> 00:27:20,040
Speaker 1: Crystal Palace by three in the EFL Cup. They beat Yeah,

527
00:27:20,119 --> 00:27:23,600
Speaker 1: and it was they beat Burnley by one, Sheffield United

528
00:27:23,680 --> 00:27:28,480
Speaker 1: by one, Brentford by one, Fullham by one, Copenhagen by one.

529
00:27:29,240 --> 00:27:33,480
Speaker 1: It's for us by one. It's it's by the slimmest

530
00:27:33,600 --> 00:27:38,920
Speaker 1: like this is an exaggeration, but a couple bad bounces

531
00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:43,360
Speaker 1: for this team and they're in They've gotten every Yeah,

532
00:27:43,359 --> 00:27:46,920
Speaker 1: they're in fifteenth place. Take away two of those wins.

533
00:27:47,520 --> 00:27:49,359
Speaker 1: Take away two of those wins. I give them draws,

534
00:27:49,400 --> 00:27:52,119
Speaker 1: and they're they're on fourteenth points or and they're at

535
00:27:52,680 --> 00:27:54,639
Speaker 1: you know, in thirteenth place in the league right now.

536
00:27:54,720 --> 00:27:58,280
Speaker 1: And uh and no one's gonna no one's in relegation.

537
00:27:58,359 --> 00:28:01,440
Speaker 1: Trouble upside of you know, the those four teams that

538
00:28:01,520 --> 00:28:05,679
Speaker 1: we know. But this is such an unimpressive team right now,

539
00:28:05,800 --> 00:28:08,479
Speaker 1: and I'm pretty sure they're gonna quit on their manager.

540
00:28:09,280 --> 00:28:12,919
Speaker 2: Here's the soccer matches. Were only go ahead ninety minutes,

541
00:28:13,680 --> 00:28:14,159
Speaker 2: they would have.

542
00:28:15,080 --> 00:28:19,200
Speaker 1: They would have lost to Sheffield. Yes, they got the

543
00:28:19,320 --> 00:28:25,040
Speaker 1: draw Fulham. Sheffield would have lost to brent Brdford. I'm

544
00:28:25,040 --> 00:28:27,360
Speaker 1: not Sheffield Brentford. They would have tied Sheffield.

545
00:28:27,920 --> 00:28:30,280
Speaker 3: It's they would have now, to be fair, they would

546
00:28:30,280 --> 00:28:33,520
Speaker 3: have tied Arsenal as well. That's true, So give a

547
00:28:33,560 --> 00:28:36,800
Speaker 3: little bright spot there to n I might have been their.

548
00:28:36,760 --> 00:28:39,640
Speaker 2: Best performance of the season. Yeah, no. I mean, essentially,

549
00:28:39,640 --> 00:28:41,600
Speaker 2: if you're laying United minus one and a half year,

550
00:28:42,360 --> 00:28:44,360
Speaker 2: you're asking them to do something they have not done

551
00:28:45,040 --> 00:28:47,080
Speaker 2: all season long, which is beat a Premier League team

552
00:28:47,080 --> 00:28:48,800
Speaker 2: in a Premier League match by multiple.

553
00:28:48,520 --> 00:28:54,880
Speaker 3: Goals without Casamiro, without Luke Shaw, without Lossandra Martinez without

554
00:28:55,480 --> 00:28:59,800
Speaker 3: Now Johnny Evans is out as well. Imagine saying that

555
00:28:59,880 --> 00:29:02,640
Speaker 3: was I know, but I'm like, okay, well it's now

556
00:29:02,680 --> 00:29:03,080
Speaker 3: it's just.

557
00:29:03,480 --> 00:29:04,040
Speaker 1: About a man.

558
00:29:04,400 --> 00:29:07,640
Speaker 2: But you're up two goals exactly, completely capitulated.

559
00:29:08,080 --> 00:29:08,800
Speaker 3: And that's the problem.

560
00:29:10,600 --> 00:29:13,440
Speaker 1: It's it's not even just like the numbers are bad,

561
00:29:13,560 --> 00:29:15,360
Speaker 1: but it's it's a perfect storm of the numbers are

562
00:29:15,400 --> 00:29:18,440
Speaker 1: bad and the team just you know, I test, sniff test,

563
00:29:18,520 --> 00:29:21,600
Speaker 1: whatever you want to call it. There's no backbone here.

564
00:29:21,680 --> 00:29:25,000
Speaker 1: And how do they they run away? They scored what

565
00:29:25,120 --> 00:29:27,440
Speaker 1: in the third minute today? And I'll be honest, up

566
00:29:27,520 --> 00:29:30,400
Speaker 1: until the red card, the good they were moving the

567
00:29:30,440 --> 00:29:32,600
Speaker 1: ball very, very well. It was a lot of quick passes.

568
00:29:32,720 --> 00:29:34,360
Speaker 3: They were moving the ball between the lines like it

569
00:29:34,680 --> 00:29:36,840
Speaker 3: actually looked like the best version of what ten Honk

570
00:29:36,960 --> 00:29:39,320
Speaker 3: wanted them to play. And then a red card happened

571
00:29:39,320 --> 00:29:42,440
Speaker 3: and they just completely fell apart. It's like it was

572
00:29:42,560 --> 00:29:44,440
Speaker 3: just like they went down like three men instead of one.

573
00:29:45,000 --> 00:29:45,560
Speaker 1: It was crazy.

574
00:29:45,720 --> 00:29:48,640
Speaker 2: We got we got an opening line for the return

575
00:29:48,760 --> 00:29:52,200
Speaker 2: trip to Hell with that Marcus Rashford in three weeks.

576
00:29:52,280 --> 00:29:53,880
Speaker 2: You want to guess what United is on the money

577
00:29:53,920 --> 00:29:55,720
Speaker 2: line for that match at one book to put it up.

578
00:29:56,560 --> 00:29:58,480
Speaker 3: They are. They are they a road favorite.

579
00:29:59,040 --> 00:29:59,840
Speaker 2: They are Oh my.

580
00:29:59,840 --> 00:30:01,360
Speaker 1: God, money plus.

581
00:30:03,440 --> 00:30:07,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's crazy, that's like said, I mean, if it's fired,

582
00:30:07,280 --> 00:30:11,760
Speaker 2: we might have to my I already beck out.

583
00:30:11,760 --> 00:30:19,680
Speaker 1: That this is a manager managing for his job. Like

584
00:30:19,720 --> 00:30:22,240
Speaker 1: they lose Hallutin, he's stunned. It's the international break, perfect

585
00:30:22,280 --> 00:30:24,840
Speaker 1: time to just cut ties, bring in big Sam for

586
00:30:24,880 --> 00:30:27,920
Speaker 1: the rest of the season, keep them up and go

587
00:30:28,080 --> 00:30:30,160
Speaker 1: from there. Give it, give it a Sam for the

588
00:30:30,200 --> 00:30:33,600
Speaker 1: rest of the year. It's such it's such a mess.

589
00:30:33,680 --> 00:30:36,600
Speaker 1: It's such a good opportunity. I think to to sprinkle

590
00:30:36,840 --> 00:30:38,840
Speaker 1: a big money line and I know it's moved, but

591
00:30:39,680 --> 00:30:41,960
Speaker 1: up the hatters, man, this is this is such a

592
00:30:42,000 --> 00:30:43,000
Speaker 1: good spot to try to pick it.

593
00:30:43,080 --> 00:30:47,600
Speaker 3: The one last thing I'll say, Manchester United, if you

594
00:30:47,760 --> 00:30:53,480
Speaker 3: just strictly looked at expected points, they have overperformed better

595
00:30:53,760 --> 00:30:56,040
Speaker 3: than any more than any team in the Premier League.

596
00:30:56,080 --> 00:30:59,040
Speaker 3: This season and what has it got them? Eighth place?

597
00:30:59,600 --> 00:31:01,360
Speaker 3: Like that's how bad it is. Right now they should

598
00:31:01,400 --> 00:31:03,440
Speaker 3: be in the bottom half of the table, but because

599
00:31:03,480 --> 00:31:08,160
Speaker 3: of some late luck, essentially they are somehow sitting in

600
00:31:08,240 --> 00:31:08,760
Speaker 3: eighth place.

601
00:31:09,640 --> 00:31:11,200
Speaker 2: Would you look at that? I just got a notification

602
00:31:11,280 --> 00:31:13,640
Speaker 2: in the award winning Action Network app that BJ Cunningham

603
00:31:13,720 --> 00:31:18,480
Speaker 2: is yeah plus a half yep against Manchester.

604
00:31:18,560 --> 00:31:19,880
Speaker 3: You know it's crazy time.

605
00:31:20,400 --> 00:31:26,200
Speaker 1: Oh all right, let's move on to board Myth and Newcastle.

606
00:31:26,560 --> 00:31:29,840
Speaker 1: Now the Cherries at home four to one, Newcastle traveling

607
00:31:29,880 --> 00:31:32,360
Speaker 1: at minus one fifty the draw is three to one.

608
00:31:33,520 --> 00:31:38,640
Speaker 1: Not a good showing for our boys from Saudi Arabia

609
00:31:38,920 --> 00:31:43,000
Speaker 1: over over the midweek going to Dortmunt and losing pretty

610
00:31:43,480 --> 00:31:44,640
Speaker 1: pretty it was.

611
00:31:45,760 --> 00:31:47,760
Speaker 2: That was the thing, right, we talked about it. We're like, well,

612
00:31:47,960 --> 00:31:52,960
Speaker 2: like they might rotate and they might be dead because

613
00:31:52,960 --> 00:31:54,640
Speaker 2: they played a war on Saturday.

614
00:31:54,800 --> 00:31:56,400
Speaker 1: Everybody's and they were dead.

615
00:31:57,040 --> 00:32:02,080
Speaker 2: Yep, suspended here he got a yellow car accumulation, So

616
00:32:02,160 --> 00:32:04,640
Speaker 2: he's down. Dan Burn's gonna be Who's.

617
00:32:04,520 --> 00:32:10,520
Speaker 1: Who with Shak and Wilson. The callan Wilson's gone, Well,

618
00:32:11,120 --> 00:32:16,040
Speaker 1: Shak's gone, Wilson's is he? I thought? I thought, uh, well,

619
00:32:16,160 --> 00:32:19,640
Speaker 1: he's like that, like at least a doubt, right, So

620
00:32:21,040 --> 00:32:21,360
Speaker 1: I don't know.

621
00:32:21,440 --> 00:32:24,120
Speaker 2: There's the market's come down pretty hard here and I

622
00:32:24,160 --> 00:32:25,760
Speaker 2: don't play them and you have, I mean they ran

623
00:32:25,760 --> 00:32:26,000
Speaker 2: out of.

624
00:32:26,000 --> 00:32:28,560
Speaker 1: Players here, Yeah, I don't. I actually don't think bourn

625
00:32:28,640 --> 00:32:32,120
Speaker 1: with is out of control. Uh to play him? I

626
00:32:32,280 --> 00:32:32,920
Speaker 1: am not going to.

627
00:32:33,240 --> 00:32:36,600
Speaker 3: But it's the it's the worst match if possible for Bournemouth. Yeah,

628
00:32:37,360 --> 00:32:38,320
Speaker 3: I understand.

629
00:32:38,560 --> 00:32:40,280
Speaker 2: Nobody's in the hamstring for Wilson.

630
00:32:40,520 --> 00:32:43,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, I understand they have nobody, But it's the worst

631
00:32:43,200 --> 00:32:45,400
Speaker 3: possible matchup that Bournemouth could have in the Premier League

632
00:32:45,400 --> 00:32:47,920
Speaker 3: against really anybody, like outside.

633
00:32:47,680 --> 00:32:50,480
Speaker 2: At home though, and again like the Newcastle legs, like

634
00:32:50,520 --> 00:32:52,480
Speaker 2: the press doesn't work as well if everybody's dead.

635
00:32:52,600 --> 00:32:54,560
Speaker 3: But they're they're playing off though a little bit. They're

636
00:32:54,600 --> 00:32:56,760
Speaker 3: not pressing as high anymore. They're playing this four or

637
00:32:56,760 --> 00:32:59,200
Speaker 3: five one and being more passive so that they can

638
00:33:00,200 --> 00:33:04,280
Speaker 3: get through this grueling schedule. But yeah, if you if

639
00:33:04,280 --> 00:33:06,360
Speaker 3: you're someone who follows my projections, I'm projecting like so

640
00:33:06,480 --> 00:33:08,920
Speaker 3: much value on Newcastle. I haven't adjusted it for injuries yet,

641
00:33:09,040 --> 00:33:11,680
Speaker 3: so I would not bet that at its current number.

642
00:33:12,080 --> 00:33:14,200
Speaker 3: The only thing I would look at here but if

643
00:33:14,240 --> 00:33:15,600
Speaker 3: Wilson's out, I don't know if I can bet it

644
00:33:15,600 --> 00:33:16,960
Speaker 3: would maybe be over three.

645
00:33:17,600 --> 00:33:18,520
Speaker 2: Just who's who?

646
00:33:18,880 --> 00:33:21,520
Speaker 1: Anthony Gordon get it? Get it to Anthony Gordon.

647
00:33:22,440 --> 00:33:25,120
Speaker 3: And probably Joe Willick would be my guess.

648
00:33:25,760 --> 00:33:27,280
Speaker 1: That's not a lot of shot here.

649
00:33:29,040 --> 00:33:30,760
Speaker 2: And you're not getting the Bruno ball winning. You're not

650
00:33:30,760 --> 00:33:34,120
Speaker 2: getting the Bruno ball progression which gives Sean long Staff

651
00:33:34,200 --> 00:33:35,640
Speaker 2: is on the ball a lot and like Bournemouth could

652
00:33:35,640 --> 00:33:39,920
Speaker 2: press him yep. And it's some turnovers and I mean

653
00:33:40,120 --> 00:33:43,760
Speaker 2: maybe over it feels like Newcastle gets picked off. Maybe,

654
00:33:43,800 --> 00:33:46,240
Speaker 2: but the line did come down a lot, so it's

655
00:33:46,280 --> 00:33:48,560
Speaker 2: the same price they were against Wolves like two weeks ago.

656
00:33:49,600 --> 00:33:49,760
Speaker 3: Two.

657
00:33:51,920 --> 00:33:53,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, pretty even game.

658
00:33:55,000 --> 00:33:59,000
Speaker 1: Villa and Fulham Villa is minus won seventy five hosting

659
00:33:59,040 --> 00:34:02,239
Speaker 1: the Cottagers coming at plus four fifty and the draw

660
00:34:02,320 --> 00:34:05,960
Speaker 1: here is plus three twenty. Uh. I'm just gonna I

661
00:34:06,040 --> 00:34:09,080
Speaker 1: think I'm my New Year's resolution is going to be

662
00:34:09,280 --> 00:34:12,920
Speaker 1: just to pretend that Aston Villa doesn't exist. So I'm

663
00:34:12,960 --> 00:34:16,040
Speaker 1: gonna be passing here, PJ. I just can't get them right.

664
00:34:16,080 --> 00:34:17,279
Speaker 1: I don't think I want to bet on them.

665
00:34:17,440 --> 00:34:19,120
Speaker 3: In you got last week.

666
00:34:19,160 --> 00:34:21,120
Speaker 1: You have the trees right, the trees. Yeah, but I

667
00:34:21,320 --> 00:34:24,319
Speaker 1: like that's true. That's the first time I ever won here.

668
00:34:24,520 --> 00:34:27,440
Speaker 2: I'll say about the first time I pulled up my

669
00:34:27,560 --> 00:34:31,600
Speaker 2: numbers on them. And this is the second time I'd

670
00:34:31,640 --> 00:34:34,160
Speaker 2: beat Villa all year and the only other one was

671
00:34:34,239 --> 00:34:36,560
Speaker 2: the EFL Cup when Everton beat them.

672
00:34:37,520 --> 00:34:39,640
Speaker 1: And I don't even know if I I want to

673
00:34:39,680 --> 00:34:42,200
Speaker 1: count the trees because we had them in the In

674
00:34:42,280 --> 00:34:47,080
Speaker 1: another heartbreaking money line, our underdog money line parlay that

675
00:34:47,320 --> 00:34:50,719
Speaker 1: that Anthony was like Sheffield United is already dead and

676
00:34:50,920 --> 00:34:53,759
Speaker 1: the real, the real killer was that Dortmund didn't even

677
00:34:53,760 --> 00:34:57,959
Speaker 1: get off the bus. I guess buying again.

678
00:34:58,000 --> 00:35:01,360
Speaker 3: We had that wonderful moment ninetieth minute penalty in or

679
00:35:01,400 --> 00:35:04,400
Speaker 3: ninety ninth. We were all so I didn't even get

680
00:35:04,440 --> 00:35:05,360
Speaker 3: a chance to watch that.

681
00:35:05,680 --> 00:35:09,560
Speaker 1: I didn't even get to have to watch endortment because

682
00:35:09,560 --> 00:35:11,480
Speaker 1: by the time I was getting ready to get settled

683
00:35:11,520 --> 00:35:15,759
Speaker 1: in and watch and have a nice sweat, Anthony's team

684
00:35:15,800 --> 00:35:19,040
Speaker 1: already had puked all over themselves. Anyways, Yeah, nothing for

685
00:35:19,080 --> 00:35:21,319
Speaker 1: me here, villain Fulham. But Anthony, you have a play though.

686
00:35:21,520 --> 00:35:23,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, I grabbed some under three minus one twenty five.

687
00:35:23,640 --> 00:35:25,520
Speaker 2: It has moved up a little bit, so it's like

688
00:35:25,600 --> 00:35:28,840
Speaker 2: minus one thirty five ish. Now, Uh, just continue to

689
00:35:28,920 --> 00:35:31,640
Speaker 2: think that these Fulham totals are getting crazy, uh, and

690
00:35:31,680 --> 00:35:33,040
Speaker 2: they're not warranted to be this high.

691
00:35:33,880 --> 00:35:34,040
Speaker 1: You know.

692
00:35:34,200 --> 00:35:36,960
Speaker 2: They they played United in a game that was so open,

693
00:35:37,440 --> 00:35:40,239
Speaker 2: but the attacking quality was so bad that they only

694
00:35:40,320 --> 00:35:42,120
Speaker 2: got to one point seven expected goals. There was a

695
00:35:42,160 --> 00:35:45,000
Speaker 2: lot of opportunities in transition there at the Craven Cottage.

696
00:35:45,520 --> 00:35:48,719
Speaker 2: But Fulham has been considerably more passive away from home,

697
00:35:49,400 --> 00:35:51,040
Speaker 2: and that's what I've noticed. I thought they were very

698
00:35:51,080 --> 00:35:54,680
Speaker 2: defensive against Brighton and Spurs in those matches. Again, two

699
00:35:54,800 --> 00:35:58,719
Speaker 2: games totaled at three that ended under three ended with

700
00:35:58,800 --> 00:36:02,480
Speaker 2: two goals each in those two games. Even their game

701
00:36:02,520 --> 00:36:06,000
Speaker 2: against Chelsea there was one really bad error deep in

702
00:36:06,040 --> 00:36:09,239
Speaker 2: their own territory, but again like stayed under and there

703
00:36:09,360 --> 00:36:11,400
Speaker 2: just isn't enough goal production in this team right now,

704
00:36:11,480 --> 00:36:15,279
Speaker 2: Like they're they're kind of scrambling to find who the

705
00:36:15,320 --> 00:36:19,440
Speaker 2: striker is going to be and none of their options

706
00:36:19,480 --> 00:36:22,320
Speaker 2: are working. Like, so they're bringing this kid, Rodrigo Munize

707
00:36:23,040 --> 00:36:26,800
Speaker 2: and he's twenty two and his shot numbers were not

708
00:36:27,080 --> 00:36:30,800
Speaker 2: very good thus far, point two five xg in you know,

709
00:36:30,920 --> 00:36:34,960
Speaker 2: two nineties. He comes from, you know, the Championship. He

710
00:36:35,040 --> 00:36:37,040
Speaker 2: had an okay season at middles bro but like, this

711
00:36:37,120 --> 00:36:40,200
Speaker 2: guy is not ever put up good enough numbers for

712
00:36:40,320 --> 00:36:41,880
Speaker 2: me to trust him in any kind of sample to

713
00:36:41,920 --> 00:36:43,319
Speaker 2: think that he's just going to walk into a PREM

714
00:36:43,440 --> 00:36:47,360
Speaker 2: team and be a competitive quality striker. So I'm not

715
00:36:47,480 --> 00:36:52,480
Speaker 2: really buying this situation with Munize and the production around him.

716
00:36:52,520 --> 00:36:55,640
Speaker 2: Like we've talked about it, it's reliant on Willian and

717
00:36:56,400 --> 00:36:58,759
Speaker 2: you know, Bobby Reid, and it's like these guys are,

718
00:36:59,239 --> 00:37:02,480
Speaker 2: you know, well passed their primes at this point, so

719
00:37:03,120 --> 00:37:04,520
Speaker 2: you know, how long do we expect them to keep

720
00:37:04,560 --> 00:37:07,840
Speaker 2: that up? Not very long. So the result is that

721
00:37:08,120 --> 00:37:10,800
Speaker 2: you know, Villa their home and away splits are so different.

722
00:37:12,560 --> 00:37:15,040
Speaker 2: But one problem that Fulham has had has been playing

723
00:37:15,080 --> 00:37:17,360
Speaker 2: through pressure this year. They have had some bad giveaways

724
00:37:17,800 --> 00:37:19,600
Speaker 2: and they're just not going to have that problem against

725
00:37:19,600 --> 00:37:22,400
Speaker 2: the Villa team that doesn't really press. So as a result,

726
00:37:22,520 --> 00:37:25,439
Speaker 2: I think I think this game plays out a little

727
00:37:25,480 --> 00:37:27,640
Speaker 2: bit flat. I think the Villa numbers are generally inflated,

728
00:37:27,719 --> 00:37:30,200
Speaker 2: like the fact that they were priced the same total

729
00:37:30,560 --> 00:37:33,160
Speaker 2: as Spurs and Fulham. He is crazy to me, given

730
00:37:33,200 --> 00:37:35,640
Speaker 2: that I think Villa's the attack is just not as

731
00:37:35,719 --> 00:37:39,400
Speaker 2: good as Spurs. So like the under here, I think

732
00:37:39,440 --> 00:37:39,920
Speaker 2: it's too hard.

733
00:37:40,800 --> 00:37:43,680
Speaker 1: Okay, our friends at Brenton are struggling right now, but

734
00:37:43,800 --> 00:37:46,960
Speaker 1: they are still a robust minus four hundred favorite, and

735
00:37:47,000 --> 00:37:50,120
Speaker 1: that's because they're playing Sheffield United. Typically cap to the

736
00:37:50,200 --> 00:37:53,919
Speaker 1: Blades for their performance last week. It feels like months ago,

737
00:37:54,719 --> 00:37:57,040
Speaker 1: twelve to one on the money line for a two

738
00:37:58,480 --> 00:38:00,839
Speaker 1: to back. The Blade's going at a two match winning

739
00:38:00,880 --> 00:38:05,600
Speaker 1: streak here and the draws plus four fifty. You alluded

740
00:38:05,600 --> 00:38:12,520
Speaker 1: to it before that. Brighton looks a little suspicious. I

741
00:38:12,560 --> 00:38:15,719
Speaker 1: guess yeah.

742
00:38:18,360 --> 00:38:20,239
Speaker 3: None of us have a bet here, so you aren't

743
00:38:20,280 --> 00:38:24,120
Speaker 3: pressing them anymore. That's the problem. They're just playing little

744
00:38:24,120 --> 00:38:26,239
Speaker 3: box and Brighton hasn't been able to figure it out,

745
00:38:26,280 --> 00:38:29,439
Speaker 3: secrets out the secrets out on how to play.

746
00:38:29,840 --> 00:38:31,800
Speaker 1: I think it's because he's trying to keep it vanilla

747
00:38:33,160 --> 00:38:36,040
Speaker 1: and not give away his secrets, because he knows that

748
00:38:36,200 --> 00:38:37,800
Speaker 1: Eric ten Hog is about to be kicked to the

749
00:38:37,840 --> 00:38:40,480
Speaker 1: carribe after they lose to Luton, and he's why.

750
00:38:40,360 --> 00:38:41,320
Speaker 3: Would he go to United?

751
00:38:41,640 --> 00:38:45,400
Speaker 1: I don't know. It's one of the dominant, but that's

752
00:38:45,440 --> 00:38:48,399
Speaker 1: what all these managers do, you know. I don't think

753
00:38:48,680 --> 00:38:51,320
Speaker 1: why would Grandpa ter go to Chelsea when it that

754
00:38:51,480 --> 00:38:56,240
Speaker 1: sociopath took it over and uh nothing here, who knows anything?

755
00:38:56,560 --> 00:38:59,680
Speaker 3: Yeah nothing, yeah, nothing here. Brighton's kind of struggling to

756
00:39:00,360 --> 00:39:02,439
Speaker 3: break down low blocks. The one thing I will say,

757
00:39:03,080 --> 00:39:05,640
Speaker 3: and it's crazy enough to say this right now, but

758
00:39:07,120 --> 00:39:09,800
Speaker 3: Brighton unders might be might be coming in here in

759
00:39:10,040 --> 00:39:11,799
Speaker 3: the next few matches. If you looked through their last

760
00:39:11,880 --> 00:39:17,080
Speaker 3: few I know against I got that one at well.

761
00:39:17,440 --> 00:39:21,200
Speaker 3: To be honest, Anthony combined, there hasn't been over two

762
00:39:21,239 --> 00:39:24,560
Speaker 3: point five actually created in their last four matches. One

763
00:39:24,600 --> 00:39:27,520
Speaker 3: point six with City, one point five with i As,

764
00:39:28,160 --> 00:39:31,879
Speaker 3: two point one against Fulham, and then have robust one

765
00:39:31,920 --> 00:39:34,640
Speaker 3: point two against Everton. Now they play i AX on Thursday,

766
00:39:35,080 --> 00:39:38,680
Speaker 3: uh in Amsterdam, So that'll be a very interesting litanus

767
00:39:38,760 --> 00:39:42,320
Speaker 3: test because i AX isn't completely desperate right now and

768
00:39:42,400 --> 00:39:44,960
Speaker 3: they're going to have to play aggressive, So that will

769
00:39:45,000 --> 00:39:46,880
Speaker 3: be a very very interesting match to watch. But you know,

770
00:39:47,040 --> 00:39:49,560
Speaker 3: Sheffield United team that's going to play a low block

771
00:39:49,560 --> 00:39:51,960
Speaker 3: who's not very effective in doing so, this will be

772
00:39:52,000 --> 00:39:55,480
Speaker 3: a good Littus test for how good Brighton isn't doing that.

773
00:39:55,680 --> 00:40:00,799
Speaker 3: Because Brighton's next match is on the road against noting

774
00:40:00,880 --> 00:40:03,440
Speaker 3: m Forest. So if they are not able to effectively

775
00:40:03,520 --> 00:40:06,120
Speaker 3: break down the Sheffield United low block and create a

776
00:40:06,160 --> 00:40:09,399
Speaker 3: lot of chances, it should not give you much hope

777
00:40:09,600 --> 00:40:11,840
Speaker 3: when they go on the road to face noting m

778
00:40:11,960 --> 00:40:15,720
Speaker 3: Forest after the international break. So this is a pass.

779
00:40:15,800 --> 00:40:18,920
Speaker 3: But if you're somebody who who like enjoys tactics or

780
00:40:19,680 --> 00:40:23,840
Speaker 3: trying to figure things out, watch how Brighton tries to

781
00:40:23,880 --> 00:40:25,800
Speaker 3: break down this low block and if they're not effective

782
00:40:25,840 --> 00:40:29,200
Speaker 3: in doing so, it's just another problem that we're gonna

783
00:40:29,200 --> 00:40:32,399
Speaker 3: have to write down and maybe we can start playing

784
00:40:32,480 --> 00:40:35,799
Speaker 3: some unders because they do have Forest, Chelsea Brentford coming

785
00:40:35,880 --> 00:40:37,759
Speaker 3: up in the Premier League after the international break.

786
00:40:38,920 --> 00:40:41,239
Speaker 2: Okay, yeah, I would lean toward the goals here, but

787
00:40:41,360 --> 00:40:45,279
Speaker 2: like one forty to lay a goal and a half,

788
00:40:45,480 --> 00:40:46,399
Speaker 2: like no nights.

789
00:40:47,840 --> 00:40:51,600
Speaker 1: Just reminder this will be our last episode before the

790
00:40:51,680 --> 00:40:54,439
Speaker 1: international break, and then when the international break gets back,

791
00:40:55,320 --> 00:40:59,919
Speaker 1: it's time for the busy, busy festive fixtures. Things oka

792
00:41:00,239 --> 00:41:03,239
Speaker 1: quite crazy around these parts, and that also means the

793
00:41:03,280 --> 00:41:05,879
Speaker 1: holiday season is right around the corner, and that means

794
00:41:05,920 --> 00:41:08,879
Speaker 1: it's time to get busy. But don't let that stop

795
00:41:08,960 --> 00:41:10,879
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796
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797
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798
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799
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800
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802
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803
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804
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805
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809
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811
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812
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815
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816
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817
00:42:12,680 --> 00:42:19,879
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818
00:42:19,960 --> 00:42:25,840
Speaker 1: more matches to go fun. One here Liverpool Brentford the

819
00:42:25,960 --> 00:42:29,239
Speaker 1: Reds minus two fifty the Bees traveling at six to one.

820
00:42:29,920 --> 00:42:32,800
Speaker 1: The draw is four to one. I think it's just

821
00:42:33,640 --> 00:42:36,400
Speaker 1: I'm obviously going to be betting Brentford here. Bj This

822
00:42:36,560 --> 00:42:41,279
Speaker 1: is a team that a they're really good be they're

823
00:42:41,480 --> 00:42:43,640
Speaker 1: really good in these spots when they're punching up, but

824
00:42:44,680 --> 00:42:47,719
Speaker 1: if you look at their their underlying numbers, their form

825
00:42:47,800 --> 00:42:51,600
Speaker 1: is also red hot. Right three nil against Burnley, two

826
00:42:51,640 --> 00:42:54,799
Speaker 1: nil against Chelsea and then a three to two kind

827
00:42:54,880 --> 00:42:59,239
Speaker 1: of white knuckle win against west Ham to get them

828
00:42:59,239 --> 00:43:00,360
Speaker 1: to four woods on the season.

829
00:43:01,280 --> 00:43:01,840
Speaker 3: But they're.

830
00:43:03,520 --> 00:43:06,800
Speaker 1: Sixth in the Premier League inexpected go differential per ninety.

831
00:43:07,040 --> 00:43:11,440
Speaker 1: They're creating chances. Defense is a little worry. Uh, you know,

832
00:43:11,480 --> 00:43:14,279
Speaker 1: it's middle of the table and going up against this

833
00:43:14,320 --> 00:43:18,759
Speaker 1: Liverpool attack that creates scoring chances for fun. But they've

834
00:43:18,800 --> 00:43:22,719
Speaker 1: given them problems before, so I actually think that this

835
00:43:22,840 --> 00:43:24,240
Speaker 1: is a fine spot to back the beast.

836
00:43:25,880 --> 00:43:29,120
Speaker 3: It is and Brentford is one of the few teams

837
00:43:29,280 --> 00:43:33,400
Speaker 3: outside of the Big six that can give Liverpool effectively

838
00:43:33,480 --> 00:43:36,279
Speaker 3: problems because of how good they are in transition. So

839
00:43:37,400 --> 00:43:41,279
Speaker 3: I think the you know, the Chelsea Brentford match from

840
00:43:41,280 --> 00:43:46,080
Speaker 3: a few weeks ago is not a perfect comparison, but

841
00:43:46,160 --> 00:43:49,320
Speaker 3: a pretty good one on what Brentford does. You know,

842
00:43:49,440 --> 00:43:52,799
Speaker 3: Chelsea for the first half and up until Britain when

843
00:43:52,840 --> 00:43:55,720
Speaker 3: Brentford scored, wasn't really creating a lot of big chances.

844
00:43:55,920 --> 00:43:58,280
Speaker 3: It was just a lot of shots from distance, Brentford

845
00:43:58,320 --> 00:44:02,400
Speaker 3: blocking shots over and over again. And then Brentford, who

846
00:44:02,440 --> 00:44:05,399
Speaker 3: didn't really attack for most of the first half, got

847
00:44:05,520 --> 00:44:08,279
Speaker 3: free a couple times down the wings. One cross goes in,

848
00:44:08,840 --> 00:44:11,560
Speaker 3: Chelsea miscommunicates on the back post, Pinnock puts it in

849
00:44:11,960 --> 00:44:14,239
Speaker 3: and that's kind of all she wrote for the rest

850
00:44:14,280 --> 00:44:20,640
Speaker 3: of the match. Liverpool is still not good in transition defense.

851
00:44:20,719 --> 00:44:23,640
Speaker 3: It's still a problem, and especially in this match, with

852
00:44:23,760 --> 00:44:27,040
Speaker 3: the midfield that they're going to have out there, Brentford

853
00:44:27,080 --> 00:44:28,960
Speaker 3: should be able to take a big time advantage in

854
00:44:29,000 --> 00:44:32,880
Speaker 3: those transition opportunities. Because Curtis Jones and Alexas Kal Lexus

855
00:44:32,960 --> 00:44:35,319
Speaker 3: McAllister are both going to miss this match, it looks

856
00:44:35,360 --> 00:44:38,440
Speaker 3: like graven Burke is doubtful and Thiago is still out,

857
00:44:38,640 --> 00:44:43,480
Speaker 3: so you're gonna have some type of makeshift midfield with

858
00:44:44,360 --> 00:44:47,880
Speaker 3: it might be with Tarro Endo as the ball stopping midfield,

859
00:44:47,960 --> 00:44:50,319
Speaker 3: or obviously Soba Slie will be in there, and maybe

860
00:44:50,400 --> 00:44:54,200
Speaker 3: Cody Gakpo, but it's still not a lot of great

861
00:44:54,239 --> 00:44:56,080
Speaker 3: ball winning in the middle of the pitch. And the

862
00:44:56,160 --> 00:44:59,120
Speaker 3: biggest thing of why Liverpool's bad in transition defense, especially

863
00:44:59,120 --> 00:45:01,800
Speaker 3: against these teams like bre is because when they invert

864
00:45:01,880 --> 00:45:04,920
Speaker 3: Trent Alexander Arnold into the middle of the pitch, well,

865
00:45:04,960 --> 00:45:07,040
Speaker 3: once they lose the ball, he's not a great defender

866
00:45:07,120 --> 00:45:09,680
Speaker 3: in transition. So there's not only space out in wide

867
00:45:09,719 --> 00:45:12,120
Speaker 3: areas where Conte and whoever is playing on the left

868
00:45:12,560 --> 00:45:15,200
Speaker 3: at this point it'll probably be Joe Gomez or Smikos

869
00:45:15,200 --> 00:45:19,160
Speaker 3: will be my guess. They've been cooked in those type

870
00:45:19,160 --> 00:45:21,280
Speaker 3: of scenarios and it leaves a lot of open space

871
00:45:21,600 --> 00:45:23,439
Speaker 3: for teams that can get forward and play down the middle.

872
00:45:23,520 --> 00:45:27,239
Speaker 3: So Brentford, who has obviously Lisa him Weima, who are

873
00:45:27,440 --> 00:45:30,120
Speaker 3: very very good in those transition opportunities in one v

874
00:45:30,200 --> 00:45:34,000
Speaker 3: one situations, can give Liverpool a ton of problems. And

875
00:45:35,080 --> 00:45:38,520
Speaker 3: Brentford also should have really good advantages on set pieces

876
00:45:38,600 --> 00:45:40,920
Speaker 3: here they haven't scored many this season they won't scored twice,

877
00:45:41,320 --> 00:45:44,239
Speaker 3: but they've created six point one expectacles off a set

878
00:45:44,239 --> 00:45:46,759
Speaker 3: pieces that is by far and away the most in

879
00:45:46,800 --> 00:45:48,799
Speaker 3: the Premier League, so they're a little overdue to score there.

880
00:45:49,000 --> 00:45:51,120
Speaker 3: Liverpool in the bottom half of the Premier League in

881
00:45:51,760 --> 00:45:56,480
Speaker 3: defending set pieces, so just another really really good opportunity

882
00:45:56,560 --> 00:45:59,520
Speaker 3: here for Brentford, who you know, if you look back

883
00:45:59,520 --> 00:46:01,920
Speaker 3: to their last smatch against Liverpool they won at Anfield.

884
00:46:02,000 --> 00:46:03,880
Speaker 3: I know they only created point two xg, but there

885
00:46:03,920 --> 00:46:06,920
Speaker 3: was a couple very very close var situations where Brentford

886
00:46:06,920 --> 00:46:09,400
Speaker 3: I remember, scored one but they were like a toenail

887
00:46:09,480 --> 00:46:11,719
Speaker 3: off because of Liverpool was playing their high line, so

888
00:46:12,280 --> 00:46:14,680
Speaker 3: Brentford should be able to exploit that there. They still

889
00:46:14,760 --> 00:46:16,840
Speaker 3: doing an outstanding job closing off the middle of the

890
00:46:16,880 --> 00:46:18,960
Speaker 3: pitch and they're five to three to two, so it's

891
00:46:19,000 --> 00:46:21,880
Speaker 3: going to have to be a lot of sala and

892
00:46:22,440 --> 00:46:24,719
Speaker 3: whether it's Diaz or Jolta, whoever's playing out on the

893
00:46:24,760 --> 00:46:27,560
Speaker 3: wings of trying to create those chances from out wide

894
00:46:27,760 --> 00:46:30,040
Speaker 3: in and Brentford's really good defending their penalty area. So

895
00:46:30,719 --> 00:46:34,719
Speaker 3: Brentford plus one and a half minus one fifteen, it's

896
00:46:35,480 --> 00:46:36,960
Speaker 3: just a classic Brentford spot.

897
00:46:37,560 --> 00:46:39,840
Speaker 2: Our friends Stucky at Big Bets on campus does the

898
00:46:40,200 --> 00:46:43,279
Speaker 2: bit about service Academy is catching two touchdowns or more

899
00:46:43,360 --> 00:46:45,279
Speaker 2: and how they win sixty plus percent of the time.

900
00:46:45,400 --> 00:46:49,120
Speaker 2: And this is kind of the thing with Brentford, right,

901
00:46:49,239 --> 00:46:52,280
Speaker 2: like we know we're not always going to win, nothing's

902
00:46:52,280 --> 00:46:54,400
Speaker 2: always going to win, but way more often than not

903
00:46:54,520 --> 00:46:56,920
Speaker 2: when we back them against these big teams, they come

904
00:46:57,000 --> 00:46:59,480
Speaker 2: through for us and the market is pretentally undervaluing them.

905
00:46:59,520 --> 00:47:01,960
Speaker 2: And if you look at it, like yeah, if you

906
00:47:02,120 --> 00:47:05,720
Speaker 2: just looked at straight extra difference per ninety and eleven

907
00:47:05,800 --> 00:47:09,879
Speaker 2: on eleven this season, Liverpool non penalty is the best

908
00:47:09,920 --> 00:47:12,440
Speaker 2: in the league, edging out Newcastle and City by like

909
00:47:12,520 --> 00:47:16,319
Speaker 2: the slimmest of margins plus one point two five ninety.

910
00:47:17,440 --> 00:47:20,120
Speaker 2: Well Brentford plus point five to five for ninety. So

911
00:47:20,280 --> 00:47:22,000
Speaker 2: they're an excellent team and they're catching a goal and

912
00:47:22,040 --> 00:47:24,800
Speaker 2: a half here, So I think it's too high. Liverpool

913
00:47:24,840 --> 00:47:28,680
Speaker 2: probably wins better team at home. But even when Liverpool

914
00:47:28,840 --> 00:47:31,399
Speaker 2: exploits teams, they've still managed to find ways to get

915
00:47:31,400 --> 00:47:33,680
Speaker 2: in transition against especially like Forest. If you look go

916
00:47:33,760 --> 00:47:36,200
Speaker 2: back and watch how they beat Forest, Forrest sat very

917
00:47:36,200 --> 00:47:39,000
Speaker 2: deep and they still got beaten transition. I don't think

918
00:47:39,120 --> 00:47:42,879
Speaker 2: Reford is going to give them any any opportunities. They're

919
00:47:42,920 --> 00:47:46,320
Speaker 2: more disciplined than Forrest, so uh yeah. I like Bees

920
00:47:46,360 --> 00:47:48,960
Speaker 2: of course, as always, the bees and the trees.

921
00:47:50,080 --> 00:47:53,440
Speaker 1: Bees in the trees, Baby on the trees, the Toffees,

922
00:47:53,680 --> 00:47:58,920
Speaker 1: that's uh. Those are Anthony's the Holy Triumphant and then

923
00:47:59,040 --> 00:48:04,120
Speaker 1: and the not Spurs or Arsenal, west Ham and the trees,

924
00:48:04,440 --> 00:48:07,880
Speaker 1: not even Forest. Hammers odds on at home at minus

925
00:48:07,920 --> 00:48:11,880
Speaker 1: twenty teen, Forest traveling at plus three twenty at the moment,

926
00:48:12,000 --> 00:48:16,879
Speaker 1: and the draw here is plus two sixty. West Ham

927
00:48:16,960 --> 00:48:21,080
Speaker 1: coming off of that disappointing loss to Brentford in which

928
00:48:21,160 --> 00:48:24,879
Speaker 1: they blew lead. Forrest coming off of a big win

929
00:48:25,400 --> 00:48:30,480
Speaker 1: that against Villa. We were on them well deserved. Forrest

930
00:48:30,560 --> 00:48:34,279
Speaker 1: is climbing lookout. But yeah, I think that this is

931
00:48:34,520 --> 00:48:38,239
Speaker 1: another good opportunity to bet this team against a west

932
00:48:38,280 --> 00:48:42,120
Speaker 1: Ham side that is just having oodles of trouble right

933
00:48:42,200 --> 00:48:46,960
Speaker 1: now defensively, which is not what you'd expect out of

934
00:48:47,440 --> 00:48:49,920
Speaker 1: a David Moyes's side. But the only teams that have

935
00:48:50,280 --> 00:48:55,480
Speaker 1: allowed more expectacles than the Hammers on the year Sheffield

936
00:48:55,560 --> 00:48:59,719
Speaker 1: United born with and Newton town and that's translated to

937
00:49:00,680 --> 00:49:05,120
Speaker 1: uh actual actual goals against two. They're six from the

938
00:49:05,160 --> 00:49:07,880
Speaker 1: bottom and tied with Brighton at twenty goals allowed. So

939
00:49:09,880 --> 00:49:15,640
Speaker 1: I think this is uh You're Trees, Anthony, your boy,

940
00:49:15,719 --> 00:49:19,240
Speaker 1: Steve Cooper, You've been telling us this whole time. Great manager.

941
00:49:20,120 --> 00:49:21,839
Speaker 1: Finally VJ and I are seeing the light.

942
00:49:21,960 --> 00:49:25,080
Speaker 2: Never doubt, never doubted him. Yeah, I just think this

943
00:49:25,200 --> 00:49:27,680
Speaker 2: is the perfect Like, what the hell is west Ham

944
00:49:27,760 --> 00:49:30,600
Speaker 2: gonna do? They keep starting Antonio? We talked about this

945
00:49:30,719 --> 00:49:33,200
Speaker 2: last week. They're not he's not getting enough shots. It

946
00:49:33,280 --> 00:49:35,320
Speaker 2: was actually really hilarious because they would have had a

947
00:49:35,360 --> 00:49:37,360
Speaker 2: tap in to go up three to one and Antonio

948
00:49:37,480 --> 00:49:39,520
Speaker 2: took the shot from his teammate and made a harder

949
00:49:39,640 --> 00:49:44,440
Speaker 2: chance out of it and missed. But you know, Cutis

950
00:49:44,680 --> 00:49:46,719
Speaker 2: is real though. That's really impressive, and I'm excited to

951
00:49:46,760 --> 00:49:49,120
Speaker 2: watch him. And he was a live wire player and

952
00:49:49,360 --> 00:49:52,600
Speaker 2: somebody who's very dangerous. So certainly has to be considered

953
00:49:53,640 --> 00:49:55,960
Speaker 2: with Bowen and Cudis. You know, can they make up

954
00:49:56,000 --> 00:50:01,200
Speaker 2: for Antonio? Maybe, but they will get Pacata back. But

955
00:50:01,360 --> 00:50:03,600
Speaker 2: this is such a brutal spot. I mean they are

956
00:50:03,640 --> 00:50:05,640
Speaker 2: playing two matches every week. They don't have the squad

957
00:50:05,719 --> 00:50:08,200
Speaker 2: depth to do it and the trees. You know, they

958
00:50:08,280 --> 00:50:11,160
Speaker 2: get Taiwoe in there and he looks lively early. The

959
00:50:11,280 --> 00:50:13,719
Speaker 2: midfield was really good at just sitting there and daring

960
00:50:13,800 --> 00:50:16,560
Speaker 2: Villa to break them down. They couldn't. And you know,

961
00:50:16,719 --> 00:50:19,120
Speaker 2: we talk about Forest twentieth and pass per defensive action

962
00:50:19,280 --> 00:50:23,080
Speaker 2: twentieth in box century final third entries allowed. West Ham

963
00:50:23,200 --> 00:50:25,520
Speaker 2: doesn't want the ball, They're not good with the ball,

964
00:50:25,560 --> 00:50:27,279
Speaker 2: and they're not very good at breaking down teams who

965
00:50:27,320 --> 00:50:29,239
Speaker 2: give them the ball. So this is the kind of

966
00:50:29,280 --> 00:50:32,040
Speaker 2: matchup where I worry about about west Ham because they

967
00:50:32,040 --> 00:50:35,760
Speaker 2: are one of the few teams who look extremely vulnerable

968
00:50:35,800 --> 00:50:38,959
Speaker 2: in transition. I mean, Brentford had odd number breaks every

969
00:50:39,040 --> 00:50:41,120
Speaker 2: time they wanted. There was no ball stopping at all.

970
00:50:41,719 --> 00:50:44,120
Speaker 2: So I think Forrest gets the same recipe that Brentford

971
00:50:44,160 --> 00:50:46,400
Speaker 2: did do I think Forest is as good as Brentford know,

972
00:50:46,600 --> 00:50:48,560
Speaker 2: but now I get a dog price. I get to

973
00:50:48,600 --> 00:50:50,600
Speaker 2: catch a half a goal instead of laying it with

974
00:50:50,640 --> 00:50:52,959
Speaker 2: the bees last week. So give me the trees plus

975
00:50:53,000 --> 00:50:54,920
Speaker 2: a half. I know how bad their road numbers are,

976
00:50:54,960 --> 00:50:56,200
Speaker 2: it's the only thing that it's kind of scary here.

977
00:50:56,640 --> 00:50:59,759
Speaker 2: There are plus or minus point nine to three per

978
00:51:00,280 --> 00:51:01,879
Speaker 2: away from home, and you know, we talked about last

979
00:51:01,920 --> 00:51:04,920
Speaker 2: year like it was pretty ugly there too. But again,

980
00:51:05,120 --> 00:51:08,279
Speaker 2: just this Hammer's team and the way they profile being

981
00:51:08,400 --> 00:51:13,000
Speaker 2: so bad in possession and so bad at tilting the field.

982
00:51:13,600 --> 00:51:15,719
Speaker 2: You know, like Forrest can probably just play their way

983
00:51:15,760 --> 00:51:18,279
Speaker 2: to an even game here and unless bounces go against them,

984
00:51:18,280 --> 00:51:19,320
Speaker 2: they're probably gonna get a result.

985
00:51:20,160 --> 00:51:22,960
Speaker 3: I mean, here's the thing is, there has been a

986
00:51:23,040 --> 00:51:26,759
Speaker 3: couple instances this season where west Ham has played as

987
00:51:26,840 --> 00:51:29,359
Speaker 3: the team that's going to control more possession and try

988
00:51:29,400 --> 00:51:32,160
Speaker 3: to break down a low block. It app against Lootontown,

989
00:51:32,680 --> 00:51:35,600
Speaker 3: they created one expected goal. It happen against Freiburg in

990
00:51:35,640 --> 00:51:39,040
Speaker 3: the Europa League. They created one expected goal. It happened

991
00:51:39,040 --> 00:51:42,399
Speaker 3: against Everton a few weeks ago. They held sixty four

992
00:51:42,440 --> 00:51:46,560
Speaker 3: percent possession, they created zero point seven expected goals. So

993
00:51:47,040 --> 00:51:50,360
Speaker 3: I agree with Anthony. What is west Ham going to do?

994
00:51:50,800 --> 00:51:52,719
Speaker 3: Are they really going to break down this effective low

995
00:51:52,760 --> 00:51:57,680
Speaker 3: block and stop Forrest going forward and transition effectively? No,

996
00:51:57,920 --> 00:52:00,520
Speaker 3: they're not going to. So they also have a home

997
00:52:00,560 --> 00:52:03,120
Speaker 3: match against Olympiacos in the Europa League on Thursday, so

998
00:52:03,160 --> 00:52:05,640
Speaker 3: they're going to be a little bit gassed here, especially

999
00:52:05,680 --> 00:52:08,000
Speaker 3: going into international breaks. So I don't know who's laying

1000
00:52:08,040 --> 00:52:10,719
Speaker 3: minus one twenty five with west Ham so uh yeah,

1001
00:52:10,880 --> 00:52:15,320
Speaker 3: Nottingham Forrest plus a half plus one all five agree

1002
00:52:15,320 --> 00:52:15,800
Speaker 3: with Anthony.

1003
00:52:16,719 --> 00:52:18,760
Speaker 1: All right, that wraps up the Premier League. We'll revisit

1004
00:52:18,840 --> 00:52:21,680
Speaker 1: them at the end of the show. Uh with our

1005
00:52:21,719 --> 00:52:24,200
Speaker 1: best bets. Now onto the Bundesliga.

1006
00:52:25,280 --> 00:52:26,040
Speaker 3: Uh quick.

1007
00:52:26,080 --> 00:52:28,880
Speaker 1: Anecdote. I was at the bank the other day and

1008
00:52:28,960 --> 00:52:32,759
Speaker 1: I heard some guy talking to the teller about hide

1009
00:52:32,800 --> 00:52:35,239
Speaker 1: and high and and and stute guard.

1010
00:52:35,640 --> 00:52:38,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, there's some there, the worst defense.

1011
00:52:39,760 --> 00:52:42,320
Speaker 1: I couldn't I couldn't like get the context of the conversation,

1012
00:52:42,400 --> 00:52:44,040
Speaker 1: but I heard him say about he had a pretty

1013
00:52:44,080 --> 00:52:44,920
Speaker 1: thick German accent.

1014
00:52:45,040 --> 00:52:48,839
Speaker 3: So, by the way, I think, Michael, the highest total

1015
00:52:48,880 --> 00:52:51,400
Speaker 3: I've ever seen in one of these top five leagues

1016
00:52:51,480 --> 00:52:55,279
Speaker 3: this weekend Byron and Heidenheim is four and a half.

1017
00:52:56,440 --> 00:52:58,399
Speaker 3: That's the highest I ever since. Like pretty it's pretty

1018
00:52:58,400 --> 00:52:59,440
Speaker 3: close to being straight too.

1019
00:52:59,760 --> 00:53:02,880
Speaker 2: So that that Byron fraud stole another result that I

1020
00:53:02,920 --> 00:53:04,600
Speaker 2: think they did not cover.

1021
00:53:04,719 --> 00:53:08,239
Speaker 1: Well. Look at them in the in the final with Galatasts. Right,

1022
00:53:10,520 --> 00:53:12,400
Speaker 1: what do you guys have for the Bundesliga. Yeah, you

1023
00:53:12,440 --> 00:53:13,640
Speaker 1: can go for at Anthony.

1024
00:53:14,000 --> 00:53:17,280
Speaker 2: Stute Gart, pick them at home minus one ten against

1025
00:53:17,320 --> 00:53:22,120
Speaker 2: BRUSHA Dortmund. Uh, what do I say where? I mean,

1026
00:53:22,160 --> 00:53:26,600
Speaker 2: who's the better team? Because I will pause it that

1027
00:53:26,680 --> 00:53:29,040
Speaker 2: Stutgart is the better team and they're pick them at

1028
00:53:29,080 --> 00:53:32,920
Speaker 2: home because we now have a quarter of the German

1029
00:53:32,960 --> 00:53:35,439
Speaker 2: season played more than a quarter ten of the thirty

1030
00:53:35,440 --> 00:53:35,960
Speaker 2: four matches.

1031
00:53:37,160 --> 00:53:37,239
Speaker 3: Uh.

1032
00:53:37,600 --> 00:53:41,160
Speaker 2: And Stutgart's expected gold differential is plus one point two

1033
00:53:41,160 --> 00:53:42,879
Speaker 2: two per ninety and I know they've lost the last

1034
00:53:42,880 --> 00:53:46,160
Speaker 2: two matches, and I know that it conveniently fits in

1035
00:53:46,239 --> 00:53:48,759
Speaker 2: the narrative because Jerasse was out and Jerassee has scored

1036
00:53:48,800 --> 00:53:51,479
Speaker 2: fourteen goals in the first eight matches. He was scoring

1037
00:53:51,520 --> 00:53:54,160
Speaker 2: at a god mode rate. But in the two matches

1038
00:53:54,200 --> 00:53:57,440
Speaker 2: without him, they created three point six XG against Hoffenheim

1039
00:53:57,480 --> 00:54:00,520
Speaker 2: at home and then went to BJ's boys hide in

1040
00:54:00,600 --> 00:54:03,160
Speaker 2: Heim and created two point six, which actually isn't that

1041
00:54:03,239 --> 00:54:07,520
Speaker 2: impressive because Heidenheim is conceding two point five per match.

1042
00:54:08,120 --> 00:54:12,640
Speaker 2: But either way, the market has given them a huge

1043
00:54:12,719 --> 00:54:14,840
Speaker 2: downgrade because Jerrosie's out and look, I get it, like

1044
00:54:14,920 --> 00:54:16,719
Speaker 2: he's very good and I joked that he was the

1045
00:54:16,719 --> 00:54:19,400
Speaker 2: best striker in the world two weeks ago and the

1046
00:54:19,480 --> 00:54:23,080
Speaker 2: first month and a half he was, but like this

1047
00:54:23,239 --> 00:54:26,279
Speaker 2: attack is still cooking. It doesn't matter whether he's there

1048
00:54:26,320 --> 00:54:29,279
Speaker 2: or not. The system underlying system is really impressive. The

1049
00:54:29,800 --> 00:54:33,040
Speaker 2: box entry data is better than Dortmann's. Dorman's transition defense

1050
00:54:33,120 --> 00:54:35,680
Speaker 2: is still a nightmare. I know Newcastle didn't do shit

1051
00:54:35,719 --> 00:54:38,160
Speaker 2: against them, but like they went to the Yellow Wall

1052
00:54:38,520 --> 00:54:42,520
Speaker 2: with they started like pretty much bums. Like it was

1053
00:54:42,600 --> 00:54:45,680
Speaker 2: a really bad attacking group from Newcastle that went to

1054
00:54:46,680 --> 00:54:49,560
Speaker 2: Dormand in that match. So I just really don't buy it,

1055
00:54:49,760 --> 00:54:51,880
Speaker 2: and I think that this defense still stinks. I mean

1056
00:54:51,920 --> 00:54:54,080
Speaker 2: you look at like their numbers this season two point

1057
00:54:54,120 --> 00:54:56,719
Speaker 2: four to PSG, one point six to Milan, one point

1058
00:54:56,760 --> 00:54:59,560
Speaker 2: one to Newcastle, three point two to Buyern, two to Frankfurt,

1059
00:55:00,080 --> 00:55:03,080
Speaker 2: like where they just haven't been good defensively and look

1060
00:55:03,120 --> 00:55:04,960
Speaker 2: I got suckered in last weekend and bet them at home,

1061
00:55:05,040 --> 00:55:06,920
Speaker 2: thought they'd give a good show and they didn't. But

1062
00:55:07,680 --> 00:55:09,799
Speaker 2: like Bjay talked about this on the Champions League show,

1063
00:55:09,880 --> 00:55:12,080
Speaker 2: like the hole is very obvious where it is. It's

1064
00:55:12,120 --> 00:55:13,719
Speaker 2: just they don't have any ball winning m Ry John

1065
00:55:13,840 --> 00:55:16,360
Speaker 2: is still hurt and so I think Dortmund should be

1066
00:55:16,400 --> 00:55:19,319
Speaker 2: a dog. So yeah, stutchardt loved them at home here

1067
00:55:19,520 --> 00:55:20,160
Speaker 2: minus one ten.

1068
00:55:20,400 --> 00:55:24,680
Speaker 3: Pick them, Yeah, I like Cologne on the road, pick

1069
00:55:24,760 --> 00:55:29,560
Speaker 3: them plus one twenty against Bochum. I don't see why

1070
00:55:29,719 --> 00:55:33,000
Speaker 3: Bochum should be a home favorite here. I mean Cologne.

1071
00:55:33,760 --> 00:55:35,400
Speaker 3: If we go back to last season and we just

1072
00:55:35,480 --> 00:55:37,640
Speaker 3: take the priors coming into here, Cologne was round an

1073
00:55:37,640 --> 00:55:43,320
Speaker 3: even expectacle differential. They underperformed quite drastically, while Bocum was

1074
00:55:43,360 --> 00:55:45,960
Speaker 3: around a minus zero point seven to exty differential per

1075
00:55:46,000 --> 00:55:48,319
Speaker 3: ninety minutes. So that's a pretty decent gap between these

1076
00:55:48,320 --> 00:55:50,680
Speaker 3: two clubs. Again, we've played about a quarter of the

1077
00:55:50,719 --> 00:55:54,040
Speaker 3: season and Bochum is still sitting at a minus They're

1078
00:55:54,120 --> 00:55:56,840
Speaker 3: now at minus point eighty five actually differential per ninety minutes,

1079
00:55:56,840 --> 00:55:59,160
Speaker 3: so they have not improved. They're not any better. Their

1080
00:55:59,200 --> 00:56:01,839
Speaker 3: defense is still can seeding chance after chance after chance.

1081
00:56:02,239 --> 00:56:04,759
Speaker 3: The process numbers for Cologne are still there. They're just

1082
00:56:05,239 --> 00:56:06,719
Speaker 3: they just can't put anything in the back of the net,

1083
00:56:06,760 --> 00:56:08,560
Speaker 3: and that's why they're in last place, first and final.

1084
00:56:08,640 --> 00:56:10,719
Speaker 3: They're to box entry conversion rate offense. At least they're

1085
00:56:10,719 --> 00:56:13,640
Speaker 3: getting good transitional opportunities and getting the ball into the box.

1086
00:56:13,880 --> 00:56:16,560
Speaker 3: They're they're crossing at a top five rate. Their top

1087
00:56:16,640 --> 00:56:19,160
Speaker 3: seven and expected threat top six and shots like this

1088
00:56:19,280 --> 00:56:22,759
Speaker 3: offense is still very very good. Again, they just can't

1089
00:56:22,800 --> 00:56:24,000
Speaker 3: put the ball in the back of the net for

1090
00:56:24,080 --> 00:56:28,520
Speaker 3: whatever reason. So Cologne pick them plus projected them pretty

1091
00:56:28,520 --> 00:56:31,760
Speaker 3: close to pick them here against Bokum and and also

1092
00:56:32,000 --> 00:56:38,919
Speaker 3: the Leverkusen Unan Berlin line is quite crazy, say the least.

1093
00:56:40,239 --> 00:56:42,240
Speaker 3: I've done a pretty good job this season just avoiding

1094
00:56:42,360 --> 00:56:45,719
Speaker 3: lever Houston train because they are just trucking everybody right now. Uh,

1095
00:56:45,920 --> 00:56:48,520
Speaker 3: probably the best form of anybody in Europe. But the

1096
00:56:48,640 --> 00:56:53,920
Speaker 3: Unyan Berlin defense has drastically underperformed. They've in the Bundesliga.

1097
00:56:53,960 --> 00:56:56,880
Speaker 3: They have conceded about ninety nineteen goals. I have about

1098
00:56:56,920 --> 00:57:00,239
Speaker 3: thirteen expected. So I am projecting a little bit of

1099
00:57:00,320 --> 00:57:04,799
Speaker 3: value on the under Leverkusen has ran incredibly hot offensively.

1100
00:57:05,560 --> 00:57:10,040
Speaker 3: Could see some aggression in that, but again I don't know.

1101
00:57:10,080 --> 00:57:11,359
Speaker 3: If I want to stand in front of the train

1102
00:57:11,560 --> 00:57:12,600
Speaker 3: this week that.

1103
00:57:12,680 --> 00:57:14,839
Speaker 2: Gets a two, I will be betting noon Umberlain. It's

1104
00:57:14,840 --> 00:57:18,040
Speaker 2: one one in three quarters right now, it's crazy. I

1105
00:57:18,120 --> 00:57:19,200
Speaker 2: make it under one and a half.

1106
00:57:20,120 --> 00:57:24,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, we'll go to La Liga next. I do

1107
00:57:24,600 --> 00:57:28,920
Speaker 1: apologize if there were some technical difficulties. The power went

1108
00:57:28,920 --> 00:57:31,320
Speaker 1: out in my house for about a minute there, lights flickered,

1109
00:57:31,360 --> 00:57:33,800
Speaker 1: internet out, but should be good now, hopefully we can

1110
00:57:33,840 --> 00:57:36,600
Speaker 1: get through the rest of this episode. Uh PJ.

1111
00:57:38,440 --> 00:57:41,920
Speaker 3: Lost Promise plus a half. There they are shout out,

1112
00:57:41,960 --> 00:57:44,400
Speaker 3: what is a humble country lawyer? Shout them out here?

1113
00:57:46,040 --> 00:57:51,040
Speaker 3: The opio lost pomis plus a half against Osasuna. I

1114
00:57:51,120 --> 00:57:53,240
Speaker 3: think we need to talk about lost Palmis really quick

1115
00:57:53,320 --> 00:57:57,520
Speaker 3: because they are holding on average fifty seven point nine

1116
00:57:57,560 --> 00:57:59,800
Speaker 3: percent possession in the La League of the season. That

1117
00:58:00,160 --> 00:58:04,880
Speaker 3: is more than Real Madrid. Now, to be fair, they're

1118
00:58:04,920 --> 00:58:07,640
Speaker 3: doing nothing with it because they are dead last and

1119
00:58:07,720 --> 00:58:10,240
Speaker 3: expected goals. They've created literally nothing. It's all just been

1120
00:58:10,280 --> 00:58:14,040
Speaker 3: off of penalties. But they are an outstanding defensing team

1121
00:58:14,080 --> 00:58:16,960
Speaker 3: and they're a very very good high pressing team. They

1122
00:58:17,120 --> 00:58:19,520
Speaker 3: love the counterpress and they're really effective in doing so.

1123
00:58:19,680 --> 00:58:22,760
Speaker 3: They've created they have the most shots off of forced

1124
00:58:22,800 --> 00:58:25,520
Speaker 3: high turnovers. They're only allowing point nine to seven non

1125
00:58:25,600 --> 00:58:28,040
Speaker 3: penalty XGP for ninety minutes. And this oh soonent offense

1126
00:58:28,400 --> 00:58:31,080
Speaker 3: has done literally nothing this season. They're bottom three and

1127
00:58:31,160 --> 00:58:34,920
Speaker 3: expected goals. They're not very very good in transition. You know,

1128
00:58:34,960 --> 00:58:39,480
Speaker 3: they're starting to kind of become this possession domin a

1129
00:58:39,560 --> 00:58:41,800
Speaker 3: team who likes to counterpress and press high as well.

1130
00:58:41,960 --> 00:58:44,959
Speaker 3: But one of the reasons why Lost Pomis is holding

1131
00:58:44,960 --> 00:58:46,840
Speaker 3: a lot of possessions because they are very good at

1132
00:58:46,880 --> 00:58:49,800
Speaker 3: playing through pressures, So if a sooner decides to press

1133
00:58:49,840 --> 00:58:52,280
Speaker 3: them high quite a bit, Last Pama should be able

1134
00:58:52,280 --> 00:58:54,480
Speaker 3: to play through them. But really should be a pretty

1135
00:58:54,680 --> 00:58:58,560
Speaker 3: big stalemate here and one. Maybe you could play a

1136
00:58:58,720 --> 00:59:02,040
Speaker 3: zero zero draw, but again, really no reason why Elsuna

1137
00:59:02,080 --> 00:59:05,680
Speaker 3: should be a odds on favorite here at home against

1138
00:59:05,720 --> 00:59:07,400
Speaker 3: a really good Lost Pomise defense.

1139
00:59:07,840 --> 00:59:10,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a it's such a fun situation with Last

1140
00:59:10,320 --> 00:59:15,000
Speaker 1: Palmis team for the Canary Islands, like traveling, like the.

1141
00:59:15,240 --> 00:59:17,960
Speaker 3: Travel of the Canary Islands too much. This year, we'll

1142
00:59:17,960 --> 00:59:18,840
Speaker 3: get into it a little bit more.

1143
00:59:19,040 --> 00:59:20,920
Speaker 1: We have to we have to talk about Mayorka, going

1144
00:59:20,960 --> 00:59:23,480
Speaker 1: to the island of Mayorka. How about traveling Uh yeah

1145
00:59:23,640 --> 00:59:32,800
Speaker 1: to basically so yeah, god uh Anthony anything in La Liga,

1146
00:59:33,120 --> 00:59:34,360
Speaker 1: I mean, my.

1147
00:59:34,400 --> 00:59:39,240
Speaker 2: Biggest value on the board, yep, same same team as always, Yep.

1148
00:59:39,400 --> 00:59:40,080
Speaker 3: I'll be on them too.

1149
00:59:40,520 --> 00:59:41,800
Speaker 2: They're catching a goal at bill Boo.

1150
00:59:42,320 --> 00:59:42,880
Speaker 3: It's crazy.

1151
00:59:43,240 --> 00:59:45,760
Speaker 2: I makeing point six to one, and I also like

1152
00:59:45,840 --> 00:59:48,000
Speaker 2: the first half team total over plus two hundred. I

1153
00:59:48,000 --> 00:59:49,160
Speaker 2: don't even want to say their name.

1154
00:59:49,840 --> 00:59:49,960
Speaker 3: You know.

1155
00:59:50,040 --> 00:59:52,360
Speaker 2: The saddest part, you know, we talk a lot about

1156
00:59:52,440 --> 00:59:55,960
Speaker 2: c LV, and you know, as a as a gambler,

1157
00:59:56,040 --> 01:00:01,520
Speaker 2: I look to obtain this CLV and store. I could

1158
01:00:01,560 --> 01:00:03,600
Speaker 2: have cashed it in with the merchant every weekend when

1159
01:00:03,640 --> 01:00:06,680
Speaker 2: I lose, but he never he never cashes it in

1160
01:00:06,800 --> 01:00:12,439
Speaker 2: for some reason. But the initials of this beautiful team

1161
01:00:13,000 --> 01:00:21,200
Speaker 2: are CLV. And last week, you know, we bet them

1162
01:00:21,200 --> 01:00:23,320
Speaker 2: pick a minus one ten against the Villa at home

1163
01:00:23,760 --> 01:00:26,480
Speaker 2: and they close like minus one forty five. They dominate

1164
01:00:26,600 --> 01:00:30,360
Speaker 2: the first hour and a half hour, fifteen minutes, and

1165
01:00:30,480 --> 01:00:33,760
Speaker 2: then they get a red card and the series scores

1166
01:00:34,400 --> 01:00:37,000
Speaker 2: and then I'm like, all right, push whatever. And then

1167
01:00:37,040 --> 01:00:38,600
Speaker 2: they gave me that glimmer of hope. They get a

1168
01:00:38,760 --> 01:00:41,280
Speaker 2: VAR call. They get a penalty in the ninety fifth

1169
01:00:41,360 --> 01:00:44,280
Speaker 2: minute when the guy's arm clearly gets dragged down. I'm like, yes,

1170
01:00:44,840 --> 01:00:46,520
Speaker 2: they probably missed the pen but for right now, I'm

1171
01:00:46,520 --> 01:00:50,680
Speaker 2: going to dream about them winning this match. Var says, no, sorry,

1172
01:00:50,800 --> 01:00:54,080
Speaker 2: Celta Ego's playing. They don't get the penalty again. I mean,

1173
01:00:54,120 --> 01:00:56,600
Speaker 2: we've talked about this a couple of times now just

1174
01:00:56,640 --> 01:00:58,360
Speaker 2: add it to the list. I mean they are getting

1175
01:00:58,560 --> 01:01:05,919
Speaker 2: like historically screwed by the officials, like var calls, reds, overturns.

1176
01:01:07,280 --> 01:01:10,160
Speaker 2: This allows everything you could possibly have go wrong for them.

1177
01:01:10,240 --> 01:01:13,040
Speaker 2: It's gone wrong, and yet the underlying process is so

1178
01:01:13,200 --> 01:01:16,280
Speaker 2: damn good. Over to and a quarter XG against Sevilla.

1179
01:01:16,320 --> 01:01:19,959
Speaker 2: They're an above average attacking team. I love everything about

1180
01:01:20,040 --> 01:01:21,920
Speaker 2: this Vego team. I think they're really trending up. I

1181
01:01:21,920 --> 01:01:24,360
Speaker 2: think the market is so wrong on them and they're

1182
01:01:24,360 --> 01:01:27,160
Speaker 2: gonna pay eventually once they start getting these goddamn var

1183
01:01:27,240 --> 01:01:29,800
Speaker 2: calls to go their way, and you know what, maybe

1184
01:01:29,840 --> 01:01:32,000
Speaker 2: the ref so they'll know and they'll they'll feel bad.

1185
01:01:32,120 --> 01:01:35,400
Speaker 2: They'll give them one. So Vigo team total over a

1186
01:01:35,480 --> 01:01:41,360
Speaker 2: half first half Vigo one minus one eighteen. I love it.

1187
01:01:41,560 --> 01:01:43,840
Speaker 2: I mean, I gotta look at the schedule to see

1188
01:01:43,840 --> 01:01:45,480
Speaker 2: how many time it's gonna bet this team the next month.

1189
01:01:45,520 --> 01:01:46,920
Speaker 2: But it could be fun.

1190
01:01:47,680 --> 01:01:51,400
Speaker 1: And you guys are on the same size side in Syria.

1191
01:01:51,520 --> 01:01:56,120
Speaker 3: Ah, the Darby shouldn't be a shocking one. It's Jose

1192
01:01:56,320 --> 01:02:00,680
Speaker 3: Marino versus Maritio. Sorry, I'm gonna pick him.

1193
01:02:01,120 --> 01:02:04,960
Speaker 2: Even money has gone from Yeah, looking at him to

1194
01:02:05,040 --> 01:02:06,840
Speaker 2: pronounce them to breaking in the access.

1195
01:02:07,200 --> 01:02:13,000
Speaker 1: He's becoming the beautiful pison. Yeah, it's it's his.

1196
01:02:13,320 --> 01:02:14,880
Speaker 3: You know what, You might as well keep firing from

1197
01:02:14,880 --> 01:02:16,680
Speaker 3: behind the art, Anthony. You don't, you don't know, but

1198
01:02:16,800 --> 01:02:20,040
Speaker 3: you know this is this is grew away from from shooting.

1199
01:02:21,040 --> 01:02:24,680
Speaker 1: As a human being, you are intended to grow into change.

1200
01:02:24,760 --> 01:02:29,360
Speaker 1: And yeah, this is this is bj grow. He's growing

1201
01:02:29,440 --> 01:02:32,480
Speaker 1: and he's next thing, you know, he's he's going to

1202
01:02:32,520 --> 01:02:36,440
Speaker 1: be coming here and just doing this entire section in Italian.

1203
01:02:36,640 --> 01:02:40,120
Speaker 2: I was gonna say, one day we should learn German, Italian, Spanish,

1204
01:02:40,160 --> 01:02:43,520
Speaker 2: French and do that show in that language, to be to.

1205
01:02:43,640 --> 01:02:46,520
Speaker 3: Be fair to the listeners out there, I at one

1206
01:02:46,600 --> 01:02:49,520
Speaker 3: point did speak Spanish, so I do know that language,

1207
01:02:49,640 --> 01:02:52,160
Speaker 3: you know, at least like the pronunciations, at least somewhat well.

1208
01:02:52,960 --> 01:02:56,080
Speaker 3: I have never spoken French or Italian or Germans.

1209
01:02:56,160 --> 01:03:01,080
Speaker 1: So that is so you didn't hear Olivia, Uh say yeah, Olivia,

1210
01:03:01,160 --> 01:03:03,920
Speaker 1: Joe Rupe explained to Jamie Carriger how to say his

1211
01:03:04,040 --> 01:03:04,760
Speaker 1: name is Olivier.

1212
01:03:06,040 --> 01:03:06,240
Speaker 3: Yeah.

1213
01:03:07,280 --> 01:03:09,959
Speaker 1: Anyways, anyway, you guys, are you guys around Roma?

1214
01:03:10,160 --> 01:03:11,280
Speaker 3: I mean this is pretty simple.

1215
01:03:11,320 --> 01:03:12,680
Speaker 1: I mean you don't need to go into you don't

1216
01:03:12,680 --> 01:03:13,400
Speaker 1: need to go to too much.

1217
01:03:13,440 --> 01:03:16,320
Speaker 3: But what I will say is in this match last season,

1218
01:03:16,400 --> 01:03:19,600
Speaker 3: the second one Roma had a red card in the

1219
01:03:19,880 --> 01:03:22,720
Speaker 3: thirty second minute and Latzi was only able to create

1220
01:03:23,000 --> 01:03:25,200
Speaker 3: point six xt year. I know what you'll You'll go

1221
01:03:25,240 --> 01:03:27,160
Speaker 3: to the results. You'll say, Hey, Latstio won both meetings

1222
01:03:27,240 --> 01:03:30,240
Speaker 3: last year. Uh even though Amagan's Fine Ord, they were

1223
01:03:30,280 --> 01:03:32,240
Speaker 3: not good like I thought. Iiren was the way better

1224
01:03:32,320 --> 01:03:34,720
Speaker 3: team in that match and they What happened is lots

1225
01:03:34,720 --> 01:03:37,760
Speaker 3: of got one transition opportunity off a mistake from Fine

1226
01:03:37,880 --> 01:03:40,400
Speaker 3: Ord and they scored it, and congrats to Serra Mobile.

1227
01:03:40,520 --> 01:03:42,720
Speaker 3: But outside of that, they didn't really do anything. So

1228
01:03:43,360 --> 01:03:46,240
Speaker 3: uh yeah, trying to break down Jose Marino's low block

1229
01:03:48,040 --> 01:03:50,800
Speaker 3: very very difficult thing to do. And I understand ROMs

1230
01:03:50,800 --> 01:03:53,400
Speaker 3: had some, you know, some injuries to deal with this season,

1231
01:03:53,520 --> 01:03:56,560
Speaker 3: but nobody, nobody walks into Jose's house and.

1232
01:03:57,120 --> 01:04:02,800
Speaker 1: And brings it right, that's right, legal only ubj Yeah.

1233
01:04:03,680 --> 01:04:06,480
Speaker 3: I like Nice plus one thirty on the road Friday

1234
01:04:06,520 --> 01:04:13,880
Speaker 3: afternoon against Montpellier. Francesco Farrioli out standing young manager at

1235
01:04:13,960 --> 01:04:16,960
Speaker 3: Nice right now they have continued four goals all season.

1236
01:04:17,960 --> 01:04:21,120
Speaker 3: That's awesome. It's incredibly impressive, only only eight point three

1237
01:04:21,320 --> 01:04:24,600
Speaker 3: x G allowed, and how they're doing it is incredibly

1238
01:04:24,680 --> 01:04:28,800
Speaker 3: impressive because of how flexible they are with their tactics.

1239
01:04:28,880 --> 01:04:31,200
Speaker 3: They can be a very very direct team. When they

1240
01:04:31,280 --> 01:04:34,200
Speaker 3: face teams like PSG, they're very very good with their

1241
01:04:34,360 --> 01:04:37,520
Speaker 3: pressing triggers and trying to create traps and get people

1242
01:04:37,600 --> 01:04:40,000
Speaker 3: moving forward. And they're facing a Montpellier team that quite

1243
01:04:40,040 --> 01:04:42,240
Speaker 3: frankly has been overforming for a really long time. And

1244
01:04:42,360 --> 01:04:46,840
Speaker 3: when they have faced the good competition in France, when

1245
01:04:46,840 --> 01:04:49,000
Speaker 3: they face Little they only created point three xg. They

1246
01:04:49,040 --> 01:04:51,880
Speaker 3: when they face PSG the last Friday, they only created

1247
01:04:51,960 --> 01:04:53,880
Speaker 3: half an expected goal. So I don't see how they're

1248
01:04:53,880 --> 01:04:55,960
Speaker 3: going to score here against Nice and Nie has been

1249
01:04:55,960 --> 01:04:58,360
Speaker 3: a very good attack. So project a Nice at minus

1250
01:04:58,360 --> 01:04:59,920
Speaker 3: one eleven. So I like the price them at plus one.

1251
01:05:00,440 --> 01:05:04,200
Speaker 1: Okay, time for our underdog Parlay. It's gonna come out

1252
01:05:04,280 --> 01:05:05,720
Speaker 1: at a at a big number, Like I said, one

1253
01:05:05,760 --> 01:05:09,160
Speaker 1: hundred and fifty five to one, Anthony, you can go first.

1254
01:05:09,440 --> 01:05:12,000
Speaker 2: Nottingham Forest. I was originally going to do Chelsea and

1255
01:05:12,040 --> 01:05:15,160
Speaker 2: the night change course. I think the trees match up

1256
01:05:15,200 --> 01:05:17,000
Speaker 2: really well here with west Ham. I think west Ham

1257
01:05:17,080 --> 01:05:20,720
Speaker 2: struggles to break down. You know teams that are going

1258
01:05:20,800 --> 01:05:22,600
Speaker 2: to sit off and be very passive, and I think

1259
01:05:22,680 --> 01:05:25,440
Speaker 2: given the decline in their attacking numbers combined with just

1260
01:05:25,720 --> 01:05:29,880
Speaker 2: generally awful defensive numbers, west Ham is live to get

1261
01:05:29,920 --> 01:05:32,120
Speaker 2: picked off again as the matches keep piling up.

1262
01:05:32,360 --> 01:05:34,120
Speaker 1: So with that adjustment, it means that the parlay comes

1263
01:05:34,120 --> 01:05:37,720
Speaker 1: out at one hundred and thirty seven at one. That's

1264
01:05:37,920 --> 01:05:41,040
Speaker 1: that's what happens when Anthony makes me do math on

1265
01:05:41,360 --> 01:05:44,760
Speaker 1: the fly. I like gluten town. What's the opposite of

1266
01:05:44,800 --> 01:05:46,760
Speaker 1: a heat check? Like in basketball they say heat check?

1267
01:05:46,840 --> 01:05:49,760
Speaker 1: Like when the guys got fire? Yeah, like, what is

1268
01:05:49,800 --> 01:05:54,640
Speaker 1: it the one? That's what I'm doing with the United.

1269
01:05:54,680 --> 01:05:56,080
Speaker 2: I just want to I should learn the name because

1270
01:05:56,080 --> 01:05:57,400
Speaker 2: I'm quite bad at basketball.

1271
01:05:57,800 --> 01:06:00,320
Speaker 1: Yes, well whatever, whatever the opposite of a heat check is.

1272
01:06:00,760 --> 01:06:04,200
Speaker 1: That's what I'm trying to pull off here with Manchester United,

1273
01:06:04,280 --> 01:06:05,360
Speaker 1: and they.

1274
01:06:05,320 --> 01:06:05,720
Speaker 3: Could be.

1275
01:06:07,520 --> 01:06:09,480
Speaker 1: A little bit of a dead man walking going into

1276
01:06:09,720 --> 01:06:12,160
Speaker 1: this home magic against Luton and what will be a

1277
01:06:12,960 --> 01:06:15,160
Speaker 1: very toxic atmosphere at the Theater of Dreams.

1278
01:06:15,400 --> 01:06:19,800
Speaker 3: BJ Well, Michael, I have a special treat for all

1279
01:06:19,840 --> 01:06:21,520
Speaker 3: the people who are watching on YouTube. If you're not,

1280
01:06:21,600 --> 01:06:23,560
Speaker 3: you should go watch the YouTube right now, because we're

1281
01:06:23,600 --> 01:06:27,280
Speaker 3: doing this underdog segment and this entire time, this whole podcast,

1282
01:06:27,360 --> 01:06:32,919
Speaker 3: I've had my dog in my lap this entire time.

1283
01:06:33,360 --> 01:06:37,320
Speaker 3: So I like Real Bettis plus two sixty five in

1284
01:06:37,400 --> 01:06:40,880
Speaker 3: the Seville Derby against Sevilla. It's a fantastic matchup for them,

1285
01:06:40,920 --> 01:06:43,720
Speaker 3: a team that has got a lot more defensive solidity

1286
01:06:43,800 --> 01:06:47,080
Speaker 3: now over the last few years, a team that has overperformed,

1287
01:06:47,200 --> 01:06:49,280
Speaker 3: you know, but they're facing us to be a team

1288
01:06:49,360 --> 01:06:53,040
Speaker 3: that is terrible in transition defense can't really stop anything

1289
01:06:53,120 --> 01:06:55,680
Speaker 3: right now, put up a terrible performance against Arsenal. So

1290
01:06:56,440 --> 01:07:00,440
Speaker 3: I like Real Bettis in the Seville Derby plus two

1291
01:07:00,520 --> 01:07:01,040
Speaker 3: sixty five.

1292
01:07:01,800 --> 01:07:03,800
Speaker 2: If BetUS wins, I think all three of us need

1293
01:07:03,880 --> 01:07:06,480
Speaker 2: to bring our dogs onto the dog show segment for

1294
01:07:06,520 --> 01:07:07,840
Speaker 2: the rest of the time.

1295
01:07:08,120 --> 01:07:10,120
Speaker 3: And that's why you have to be watching YouTube of

1296
01:07:10,200 --> 01:07:10,840
Speaker 3: our podcast.

1297
01:07:13,200 --> 01:07:18,640
Speaker 1: Elvis is eighty pounds. It'd be tough, we'll figure it out.

1298
01:07:19,440 --> 01:07:21,160
Speaker 1: He is a blue nose, so just like me and

1299
01:07:21,320 --> 01:07:24,480
Speaker 1: just like my favorite bet Everden, I like the Toffees

1300
01:07:24,480 --> 01:07:28,040
Speaker 1: at plus two hundred on the road against Crystal Palace,

1301
01:07:28,760 --> 01:07:30,880
Speaker 1: trying to break the schnide here. Usually when one of

1302
01:07:30,960 --> 01:07:34,720
Speaker 1: Anthony or BJ picked Everdon as an underdog or their

1303
01:07:34,760 --> 01:07:37,320
Speaker 1: best bet they win, and when I do it, it

1304
01:07:37,400 --> 01:07:40,760
Speaker 1: comes out as a Homer bias loser. But I'm gonna

1305
01:07:40,760 --> 01:07:44,000
Speaker 1: try to break the snide here. I think that Palace

1306
01:07:44,160 --> 01:07:47,720
Speaker 1: is a favorite, just vulnerable. Anthony said it earlier, like

1307
01:07:47,920 --> 01:07:50,280
Speaker 1: I think all three of us power rate or think

1308
01:07:50,360 --> 01:07:53,120
Speaker 1: highly higher of Everdon than than Crystal Palace now at

1309
01:07:53,120 --> 01:07:56,200
Speaker 1: this point, and they could like, this is a game

1310
01:07:56,320 --> 01:07:58,160
Speaker 1: that you guys are talking about being low event. I

1311
01:07:58,240 --> 01:08:00,880
Speaker 1: think Evidences totally fine in that because they have clinical

1312
01:08:00,920 --> 01:08:04,520
Speaker 1: finishers in their lineup now that they're healthy. So give

1313
01:08:04,560 --> 01:08:06,000
Speaker 1: me the topees at two to one. BJ.

1314
01:08:06,400 --> 01:08:10,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, I like Arsenal Burnley both teams to score no.

1315
01:08:10,720 --> 01:08:13,760
Speaker 3: At minus one point fifty. I don't know how Burnley

1316
01:08:13,920 --> 01:08:16,280
Speaker 3: is going to score in this match. They're averaging under

1317
01:08:16,360 --> 01:08:20,720
Speaker 3: point nine non penalty expected goals this season and their

1318
01:08:20,760 --> 01:08:23,840
Speaker 3: style of play is not inducive to what how good

1319
01:08:23,960 --> 01:08:26,400
Speaker 3: Arsenal has been defensively. The teams that have given Arsenal

1320
01:08:26,479 --> 01:08:29,639
Speaker 3: problems are teams that can play in transition, who can

1321
01:08:29,880 --> 01:08:33,479
Speaker 3: really exploit Arsenal and honestly turn them over high as well.

1322
01:08:33,520 --> 01:08:35,680
Speaker 3: Burnley hasn't been good at finishing high turned numbers even

1323
01:08:35,680 --> 01:08:37,920
Speaker 3: though they are pressing with the front four, and they're

1324
01:08:37,960 --> 01:08:39,800
Speaker 3: not a transition based team. They're a team that wants

1325
01:08:39,800 --> 01:08:41,639
Speaker 3: to build out of the back and progress the ball

1326
01:08:41,720 --> 01:08:43,880
Speaker 3: that way. Playing against an Arsenal team that out of

1327
01:08:43,880 --> 01:08:45,559
Speaker 3: possession is one of the best teams in the world

1328
01:08:45,680 --> 01:08:47,960
Speaker 3: at pressing you and disrupting your build up play, it's

1329
01:08:47,960 --> 01:08:50,479
Speaker 3: a terrible matchup for Burnley, but Arsenal going to be

1330
01:08:50,560 --> 01:08:54,840
Speaker 3: pretty limited in their attack. No Mighel Ordiguard, no Gabrielle Hayzeus,

1331
01:08:55,360 --> 01:08:57,600
Speaker 3: not very many options, and if Burnley's sides play a

1332
01:08:57,640 --> 01:09:00,519
Speaker 3: little bit more past if Arsenal could struggle. So projected

1333
01:09:00,600 --> 01:09:02,360
Speaker 3: both team score now at minus twenty four. So I

1334
01:09:02,439 --> 01:09:03,639
Speaker 3: like the price of minus one fifty.

1335
01:09:03,960 --> 01:09:07,160
Speaker 2: I think we're becoming a Steve Cooper podcast, slowly but surely.

1336
01:09:07,320 --> 01:09:09,720
Speaker 2: So I use them as my underdog. I think I

1337
01:09:09,840 --> 01:09:11,400
Speaker 2: use them as miner dog. And my best bet last

1338
01:09:11,400 --> 01:09:13,920
Speaker 2: week for no minor dog was Dorman, So use me

1339
01:09:14,000 --> 01:09:15,679
Speaker 2: my best bet last week and I'm doing it again.

1340
01:09:15,800 --> 01:09:19,840
Speaker 2: Nottingham Forest plus a half at west Ham. Relative to

1341
01:09:19,880 --> 01:09:21,679
Speaker 2: the market, I think west Ham is now my biggest

1342
01:09:21,680 --> 01:09:25,519
Speaker 2: differentiator in team strength along with United of course, but

1343
01:09:26,280 --> 01:09:27,960
Speaker 2: I'm just much lower than the mark on this west

1344
01:09:27,960 --> 01:09:31,000
Speaker 2: Ham team. I think their defensive back line continues to

1345
01:09:31,040 --> 01:09:31,599
Speaker 2: get exposed.

1346
01:09:31,760 --> 01:09:35,160
Speaker 1: Okay, well that'll do it for wonder goal this weekend

1347
01:09:35,320 --> 01:09:37,080
Speaker 1: for a couple of weeks as we head into the

1348
01:09:37,160 --> 01:09:40,040
Speaker 1: final international break before things get really busy with all

1349
01:09:40,080 --> 01:09:43,800
Speaker 1: the festive fixtures, so we'll be hearing a lot from

1350
01:09:43,920 --> 01:09:46,840
Speaker 1: us as we get back. But until then, best of

1351
01:09:46,920 --> 01:09:49,760
Speaker 1: luck with all your bets and hopefully we will catch

1352
01:09:49,800 --> 01:09:52,040
Speaker 1: some big tickets going into the break.

1353
01:09:59,320 --> 01:10:03,840
Speaker 2: Action Work reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1354
01:10:03,880 --> 01:10:06,680
Speaker 2: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1355
01:10:06,680 --> 01:10:09,759
Speaker 2: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler