WEBVTT - The Attacks Are Getting Worse, Not Better: Josh Rogin Talks To A&G

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<v Speaker 1>What is your message to Hesboala and its backer Iran?

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<v Speaker 2>Don't don't don't don't.

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<v Speaker 3>And what's the message to Iran?

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<v Speaker 1>Don't?

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<v Speaker 2>As President Biden said, just don't.

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<v Speaker 4>Exactly one word, pretty straightforward. It was very important to

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<v Speaker 4>send a very clear message to anyone who might seek

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<v Speaker 4>to take advantage of the conflict in gas but to

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<v Speaker 4>threaten our personnel here anywhere else in the region, don't

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<v Speaker 4>do it.

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<v Speaker 5>I've already delivered.

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<v Speaker 2>The message to marand they know not to do anything.

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<v Speaker 5>I've already delivered the message who Iran, they know not

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<v Speaker 5>to do anything. That's from about a week or two ago.

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<v Speaker 5>Apparently all those don'ts did not work.

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<v Speaker 3>The chaos in the Middle East shows signs of growing

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<v Speaker 3>into even greater chaos. To discuss that in the recent

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<v Speaker 3>events were joined by Josh Rogan, Global Opinions calumnists with

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<v Speaker 3>The Washington Post, author of Chaos under Heaven Trumps she

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<v Speaker 3>The Battle for the twenty first Century. Josh, welcome, How

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<v Speaker 3>are you.

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<v Speaker 2>Great? I mean, the world is terrible shape, but it

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<v Speaker 2>personal I'm just doing okay.

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<v Speaker 5>Thing that's good to hear. When the horrible news broke

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<v Speaker 5>on Sunday, what you called a brazen escalation. Even though

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<v Speaker 5>it was the one hundred and sixtieth attack we've had

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<v Speaker 5>on us since October seventh, this one ended in the

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<v Speaker 5>death of three soldiers and bad injuries for dozens of others.

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<v Speaker 5>And I started reading your twitter feed. I see your

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<v Speaker 5>Washington Post column today about Iran's proxy forces are teaming

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<v Speaker 5>up to attack Americans. So why did we I've been

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<v Speaker 5>reading your Twitter feed, So I want you to explain

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<v Speaker 5>this to our listeners. Why were we where we were

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<v Speaker 5>there in Jordan? What were we doing? Who attacked us?

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<v Speaker 5>Who was it that attacked us? Before we get to

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<v Speaker 5>some solutions right now.

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<v Speaker 1>I think it's a.

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<v Speaker 2>Perfect place to start, because I think most Americans when

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<v Speaker 2>they heard that three US troops were in northeast Jordan,

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<v Speaker 2>their first reaction was like, what are three US troops

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<v Speaker 2>doing in.

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<v Speaker 1>Northeast right exactly?

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<v Speaker 2>But you know, it's it's actually really important that they

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<v Speaker 2>be there. They're fighting isis they're stopping Iranian proliferation, and

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<v Speaker 2>they're protecting the civilians there from all sorts of manner

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<v Speaker 2>of horrendousness. Now, it's not a combat role, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>they shouldn't be really in any danger.

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<v Speaker 1>But the reason that they are.

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<v Speaker 2>One big reason that they are is because the Iranian

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<v Speaker 2>government and its procties have been ramping up the harassment

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<v Speaker 2>of US forces all over the region without a proper

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<v Speaker 2>response from the United States. And I think that's what

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<v Speaker 2>this incident shows us. And that doesn't mean we need

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<v Speaker 2>to go to war with Iran right away, doesn't mean

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<v Speaker 2>that we even need to overreact. It just means that

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<v Speaker 2>it's very clear now that after one hundred and fifty attacks,

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<v Speaker 2>whatever we thought we were, whatever the US government thought

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<v Speaker 2>it was doing the turn of those attacks ain't working okay,

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<v Speaker 2>because the attacks are getting worse, not better, and the

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<v Speaker 2>attackers getting more brazen. So yeah, I mean, you could

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<v Speaker 2>have a discussion of should we just take all of

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<v Speaker 2>the US troops out of the release and get rid

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<v Speaker 2>of them and bring them back or whatever. That's that's

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<v Speaker 2>not an unfair discussion to have, But there's there now.

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<v Speaker 2>They're in harms way right now, They're getting attacked right now,

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<v Speaker 2>and you know, it seems pretty clear that we're gonna

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<v Speaker 2>need a to do something different in order to uh,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, stop this what is escalation?

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<v Speaker 5>If it got worse, you could only imagine, well, who

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<v Speaker 5>are the attackers you explain how there's several different militia

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<v Speaker 5>groups that the cud's forces brought together with the one

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<v Speaker 5>goal of attacking Americans.

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<v Speaker 2>Right, So you have to understand that this like you know,

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<v Speaker 2>patch of desert in between where Jordan and Iraq and

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<v Speaker 2>Syria meat, there exists a rich tapestry of militant extremist groups. Okay,

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<v Speaker 2>some are Stunnis, some are Shia, some are Syrians, some

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<v Speaker 2>are Russians, are cheched Hints, some are wow, you name it.

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<v Speaker 2>So there's there's just dozens of you know, gangsters with guns,

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<v Speaker 2>sponsored by all sorts of foreign governments. Now what we

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<v Speaker 2>have there is we have a base called TOMP which

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<v Speaker 2>is again fighting terrorism and stopping Irunian in proliferation. We

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<v Speaker 2>have another base called Power twenty two. That's the one

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<v Speaker 2>where the troops got killed, but both of them have

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<v Speaker 2>been attacked. And then there's a refugee camp full of

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<v Speaker 2>Searings that we protected to have a partner. So essentially

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<v Speaker 2>what's going on is that you know, all of these

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<v Speaker 2>groups were being held at day by the presence of

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<v Speaker 2>the US forces.

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<v Speaker 1>You really don't want to attack the US or it

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<v Speaker 1>doesn't a matter if it's only two hundred US troops.

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<v Speaker 2>That's like two thousand or twenty thousand troops from any

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<v Speaker 2>other countries. We have got the best soldiers in the world,

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<v Speaker 2>they've got the best equipment in the world. But for

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<v Speaker 2>some reason, and all of a sudden, these Iranian groups

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<v Speaker 2>are getting really, really aggressive. And of course if you

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<v Speaker 2>ask them, they'll say, well, that's because we want to

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<v Speaker 2>push the United States to pressure Israel to.

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<v Speaker 1>Stop the fighting in Gaza.

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<v Speaker 2>But if you ask the US troops on the ground,

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<v Speaker 2>they'll say it's because they don't have.

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<v Speaker 1>Permission to really go after them the way that they

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<v Speaker 1>want to.

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<v Speaker 2>And again, I'm not saying we need to attack Iran.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm not even saying we need to go attack inside

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<v Speaker 2>it Bran. But these are bad guys who are killing Americans,

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<v Speaker 2>not to mention Syrians and Iraqis and anyone else who

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<v Speaker 2>gets in their way. They are funded by Iran.

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<v Speaker 1>I think they've.

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<v Speaker 2>Earned a more forceful response to the United States, and

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<v Speaker 2>I think that's what we're gonna see.

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<v Speaker 1>We just don't have seen. Again, we just don't know

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<v Speaker 1>exactly what it's going to be.

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<v Speaker 3>I think it's pretty much self evident that our choices

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<v Speaker 3>are either a as you suggest, to get everybody out

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<v Speaker 3>of there, or b defend them forcibly with such overwhelming

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<v Speaker 3>and terrifying force that nobody dares attack them. And it's

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<v Speaker 3>not like this is some sort of new military doctrine

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<v Speaker 3>I've cooked up in the last forty eight hours. I mean,

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<v Speaker 3>it's ancient wisdom, and I think, you know, barring some

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<v Speaker 3>sort of accidental unleashing of the you know, a world war,

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<v Speaker 3>there's no reason to question the ancient wisdom? Am I?

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<v Speaker 3>Am I being a belligerent talk show host there, Josh.

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<v Speaker 2>No, I mean again, I guess it's easy for us

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<v Speaker 2>to say right now, but yes, you want to kill

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<v Speaker 2>the people who are trying to kill you, and if

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<v Speaker 2>these people are determined to try to kill you, probably want.

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<v Speaker 1>To kill them first.

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<v Speaker 2>Again, there's the debate is whether or not we should

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<v Speaker 2>then kill the people who are paying I think that's

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<v Speaker 2>a fair debate to how I think we attack inside

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<v Speaker 2>of Iran. That's a pretty risky thing to do. Start

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<v Speaker 2>killing Iranians leaders inside of run. Yeah, that could get

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<v Speaker 2>out of hand real fast. I'm not saying that we

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<v Speaker 2>should be cautious about that. But the people in Syria

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<v Speaker 2>and Iraq who are sponsored by Iran who are trying

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<v Speaker 2>to kill Americans. I think, yeah, we should probably kill

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<v Speaker 2>them first.

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<v Speaker 1>It really couldn't be much more simple than that.

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<v Speaker 3>Hey tell me if I'm overrating this, because I don't

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<v Speaker 3>want to be guilty of grossly oversimplifying anything. But when

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<v Speaker 3>the Trump administration took out Solamani, which was unquestionably an

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<v Speaker 3>extremely provocative thing to do, the Iranian response was essentially,

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<v Speaker 3>I'm I'm this is my words. They said, oh my god,

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<v Speaker 3>these guys are serious. We're going to show our righteous

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<v Speaker 3>anger by shooting a few missiles over there, and that

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<v Speaker 3>we've struck back, but we need this to recede. We

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<v Speaker 3>don't want it to escalate. They showed their true colors.

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<v Speaker 2>Then, all right, Well, I think a couple of things.

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<v Speaker 2>So one is that they killed two Americans in March

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<v Speaker 2>twenty twenty under Trump Trump's watch at a base in Iraq,

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<v Speaker 2>and one British guy. So when Trump goes on truth

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<v Speaker 2>to social says this would never have happened under my presidency,

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<v Speaker 2>he's not really true, because it did happen under his presidency.

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<v Speaker 2>So they did kill too Americans.

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<v Speaker 1>That's that, we can't forget that.

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<v Speaker 2>But what was interesting is that after that Mike Pompeo,

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<v Speaker 2>John Bolton he not a gale. Michael pay and John

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<v Speaker 2>both went to Trump and they said we got to

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<v Speaker 2>attack Iran, and Trump said no. Trump actually went against

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<v Speaker 2>his national security team and did an attack around He

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<v Speaker 2>showed restraint. You know, every one sinks Trump is going

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<v Speaker 2>to get us into some sort of war with Iran.

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<v Speaker 2>Actually he pulled us back now right or wrong. That

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<v Speaker 2>showed that actually there is a chance to avoid the

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<v Speaker 2>bigger war that neither side. Once there's no way Iran,

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<v Speaker 2>what's the war with the United States, they would definitely lose.

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<v Speaker 1>We would definitely win.

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<v Speaker 2>But you know, there is a need to show the

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<v Speaker 2>Iranians that we're just not going to take take it

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<v Speaker 2>lying down when they kill about when they kill three

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<v Speaker 2>Americans and injured three dozen more So in that window

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<v Speaker 2>is a response that's different from what we're doing now.

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<v Speaker 2>But I think the Trump example shows that, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>it doesn't matter which party is in power, there are

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<v Speaker 2>smart things to do and they are dumb things to do.

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<v Speaker 2>And you know, letting these attacks just continue to continue

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<v Speaker 2>without any response is very dumb. And uh, I think

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<v Speaker 2>that that shouldn't be political. That should just be again

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<v Speaker 2>sort of basic common sense.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I didn't. I didn't mean to make this about

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<v Speaker 3>Trump or not Trump or anything. It was more about

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<v Speaker 3>the Iranian tendencies and the fact that they're not going

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<v Speaker 3>to respond with some sort of all right, world War

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<v Speaker 3>three is on, uh, and we're going to nuke you know, Hartford,

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<v Speaker 3>Connecticut or something like that. They backed down right.

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<v Speaker 2>Right, because in the end, they're going to push us

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<v Speaker 2>until we until we show them that we can't be

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<v Speaker 2>pushed around. But they there's nobody in Iran, there's nobody

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<v Speaker 2>in the world who thinks that Iran's going to win

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<v Speaker 2>a war with the United States. So again, if we

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<v Speaker 2>show strength, then that produces a positive result. If we

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<v Speaker 2>show weakness, that emboldens our enemies to push further. And

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<v Speaker 2>this is the same game that all.

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<v Speaker 1>Of our enemies play, whether it's.

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<v Speaker 2>ISIS or the Russians or the North Koreans. The more

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<v Speaker 2>ground we see, the more that they'll test us.

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<v Speaker 1>And when they do test us, if we don't respond,

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<v Speaker 1>then the tests will get more and more dangerous.

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<v Speaker 2>So yeah, I think basically your core assumption is right,

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<v Speaker 2>is that Iran is not going to start a war

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<v Speaker 2>with the United States.

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<v Speaker 1>Because they would.

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<v Speaker 2>Definitely lose, that would be the end of their regime.

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<v Speaker 1>And they're not suicidal. They're evil, they're just not suicidal.

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<v Speaker 5>So I can't get over your description of that area

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<v Speaker 5>of the world. Holy crap, with all those different kinds

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<v Speaker 5>of groups bumping around. Sounds like the wild West or

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<v Speaker 5>something you'd see on the Mandalorian with all these armed

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<v Speaker 5>people with all kinds of divergent needs and goals and

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<v Speaker 5>that sort of thing. But I had a brother who

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<v Speaker 5>was in the Middle East all the time, all kinds

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<v Speaker 5>of different places and non combat rolls often, and uh,

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<v Speaker 5>you and could have been in this situation. Absolutely, if

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<v Speaker 5>we're gonna have people on all these different places, they

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<v Speaker 5>got to be able to sleep at night. No one,

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<v Speaker 5>they're not gonna be It's unlikely they're going to be

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<v Speaker 5>attacked and killed. We've got to deter all these different groups,

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<v Speaker 5>whatever their motives are. They've got to believe that that's

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<v Speaker 5>a bad idea. Do you think that's possible?

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<v Speaker 3>It is.

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<v Speaker 2>And you know I'm not just you know, barking for

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<v Speaker 2>the sake of barking.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, I talked to the troops on the ground,

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<v Speaker 1>the commanders on the ground. They're in the.

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<v Speaker 2>Best position to know how to keep themselves thick. What

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<v Speaker 2>they say, if they need more authority to do more

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<v Speaker 2>things to keep themselves sick and to go after the

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<v Speaker 2>people who are trying to kill them, that's what they say.

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<v Speaker 2>But you know, in the Bid administration, everything is run

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<v Speaker 2>out of the White House. If they want to strike

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<v Speaker 2>a warehouse in the middle of Syria, they've got to

0:10:59.679 --> 0:11:02.280
<v Speaker 2>get the House stamp of approval, and that that's ridiculous.

0:11:02.320 --> 0:11:04.720
<v Speaker 2>You know, they have to be proactive, they have to

0:11:04.720 --> 0:11:06.840
<v Speaker 2>be able to do whatever they have to do to

0:11:06.840 --> 0:11:08.720
<v Speaker 2>make sure that they can't sleep at night not worrying

0:11:08.720 --> 0:11:11.319
<v Speaker 2>is that if they're going to get bombed by some

0:11:11.320 --> 0:11:13.959
<v Speaker 2>sort of like crazy Irani and militia. So I think

0:11:14.000 --> 0:11:15.800
<v Speaker 2>we just need to trust these troops for and what

0:11:15.840 --> 0:11:17.960
<v Speaker 2>we also have to give them credit. You know, there's

0:11:18.000 --> 0:11:20.600
<v Speaker 2>a lot of people in this country who are like, oh, well,

0:11:20.800 --> 0:11:23.319
<v Speaker 2>you know, these troops are not doing any good over there. No,

0:11:23.440 --> 0:11:24.400
<v Speaker 2>they're doing a lot of good.

0:11:24.400 --> 0:11:24.959
<v Speaker 1>They're doing the.

0:11:24.920 --> 0:11:27.520
<v Speaker 2>Things that we want our military to do. They're helping people,

0:11:27.600 --> 0:11:31.280
<v Speaker 2>they're protecting us from terrorism, they're supporting our enemies plans

0:11:31.320 --> 0:11:33.959
<v Speaker 2>to control the region. And it is like you said,

0:11:34.000 --> 0:11:36.440
<v Speaker 2>it's a non combat role. They really shouldn't.

0:11:37.040 --> 0:11:38.160
<v Speaker 1>Be be getting attacked.

0:11:38.160 --> 0:11:40.680
<v Speaker 2>And it's only because we've forgotten how important it is

0:11:40.720 --> 0:11:43.240
<v Speaker 2>to protect those troops and give them the authority to

0:11:43.240 --> 0:11:45.400
<v Speaker 2>protect themselves that we're in this situation in the first place.

0:11:46.800 --> 0:11:49.360
<v Speaker 3>Josh, I know, asking people to get into the prediction

0:11:49.480 --> 0:11:52.559
<v Speaker 3>game is always you know, fraught and a little jiv.

0:11:52.760 --> 0:11:56.800
<v Speaker 3>But if you were to dabble, what do you expect

0:11:56.840 --> 0:11:58.000
<v Speaker 3>to see in the next several days.

0:11:59.320 --> 0:12:03.640
<v Speaker 2>Well, so let me first start with the next several months,

0:12:03.640 --> 0:12:06.520
<v Speaker 2>because I think that the war in Gaza and the

0:12:06.640 --> 0:12:09.719
<v Speaker 2>regional attentions and the gradual simmering escalation is going to

0:12:09.800 --> 0:12:13.079
<v Speaker 2>go on for the bulk of this year. And I

0:12:13.160 --> 0:12:15.880
<v Speaker 2>think that's partially because of our strategy, is also partially

0:12:15.880 --> 0:12:17.920
<v Speaker 2>because our enemies get a vote, and as we get

0:12:17.960 --> 0:12:20.960
<v Speaker 2>closer and closer to the election, it's to the incentive

0:12:21.040 --> 0:12:22.640
<v Speaker 2>of all of our enemies to make things a lot

0:12:22.679 --> 0:12:25.800
<v Speaker 2>more difficult for us. So that's a sort of a

0:12:25.840 --> 0:12:28.360
<v Speaker 2>mid to long term prediction that's not that good. Over

0:12:28.360 --> 0:12:31.440
<v Speaker 2>the next two days, I fingers crossed, we're gonna hopefully

0:12:31.520 --> 0:12:33.400
<v Speaker 2>kill a lot of terrorists who are trying to kill

0:12:33.440 --> 0:12:36.600
<v Speaker 2>American troops. I wish we'd get that decision pretty soon.

0:12:36.640 --> 0:12:38.679
<v Speaker 2>I don't know what they're waiting for. The plans must

0:12:38.720 --> 0:12:40.320
<v Speaker 2>have been there already.

0:12:40.080 --> 0:12:42.200
<v Speaker 5>That's what I was saying yesterday. You can't tell me

0:12:42.240 --> 0:12:44.480
<v Speaker 5>you need to draw plans. You didn't have any plans

0:12:44.679 --> 0:12:47.200
<v Speaker 5>during the previous several months when we're getting attacked every day.

0:12:48.280 --> 0:12:51.000
<v Speaker 2>I never met a military commander deployed them released who

0:12:51.000 --> 0:12:53.600
<v Speaker 2>didn't have a plan to kill the people who are

0:12:53.600 --> 0:12:55.640
<v Speaker 2>trying to kill them ready to go right at the

0:12:55.679 --> 0:12:59.280
<v Speaker 2>moment that, you know, again, empower the people who are

0:12:59.679 --> 0:13:03.920
<v Speaker 2>protect us and to protect themselves, and that's got to

0:13:03.960 --> 0:13:05.560
<v Speaker 2>be the guiding force here. I just don't think we

0:13:05.640 --> 0:13:07.280
<v Speaker 2>see that, you know, I just I just don't think

0:13:07.280 --> 0:13:09.920
<v Speaker 2>this administration. Again. You could kind of understand they don't

0:13:09.920 --> 0:13:13.200
<v Speaker 2>want to pour fuel on an already raging fire. But

0:13:13.840 --> 0:13:16.880
<v Speaker 2>how's that working out? You know, it's been four months

0:13:16.880 --> 0:13:20.120
<v Speaker 2>and it's only getting worse and worse. And their strategy,

0:13:20.160 --> 0:13:22.559
<v Speaker 2>to be honest, I think what the strategy was was, oh,

0:13:22.600 --> 0:13:25.160
<v Speaker 2>we'll get the Israelis to end the warren Doza, and

0:13:25.679 --> 0:13:29.360
<v Speaker 2>that'll you know, allow the Iranians and the harassment.

0:13:28.920 --> 0:13:30.480
<v Speaker 1>Of US troops and places like Jordan.

0:13:30.960 --> 0:13:34.400
<v Speaker 2>But that's not happening either, Okay, So like it or not,

0:13:35.360 --> 0:13:37.280
<v Speaker 2>this thing's gonna get worse before it gets better.

0:13:37.120 --> 0:13:38.400
<v Speaker 1>So we might as well be on the right side

0:13:38.440 --> 0:13:38.600
<v Speaker 1>of that.

0:13:39.280 --> 0:13:42.480
<v Speaker 3>Josh Rogan Global Opinion's Calmness for The Washington Post, Josh

0:13:42.480 --> 0:13:43.600
<v Speaker 3>saw was great. You're the best.

0:13:43.640 --> 0:13:44.680
<v Speaker 2>Thanks anytime.