1 00:00:01,080 --> 00:00:03,680 Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It's time to place 2 00:00:03,720 --> 00:00:07,440 Speaker 1: your bets. It's me Joey p Joe Pi Zapia. It's Friday. 3 00:00:07,520 --> 00:00:09,600 Speaker 1: You know what that means. It's time to talk props 4 00:00:09,760 --> 00:00:13,080 Speaker 1: with of course Andrew Rickson the prop profit mister Andrew 5 00:00:13,200 --> 00:00:16,919 Speaker 1: Underson himself, and our good friend though Welsh is here 6 00:00:16,960 --> 00:00:19,079 Speaker 1: and Welsh and Bog'm not gonna join us every Thursday 7 00:00:19,120 --> 00:00:21,960 Speaker 1: and Friday rest of season for our shows at Betting Pros. 8 00:00:21,960 --> 00:00:24,520 Speaker 1: How exciting is that. It's great to have the boys 9 00:00:24,560 --> 00:00:27,480 Speaker 1: here hanging out with us talking betting. The rest of 10 00:00:27,520 --> 00:00:29,200 Speaker 1: the NFL season. We've got a whole lot of fun 11 00:00:29,200 --> 00:00:31,600 Speaker 1: things going on, not just NFL here on Betting Pros. No, No, 12 00:00:31,840 --> 00:00:35,080 Speaker 1: we've also got the NBA show going every Wednesday, every Friday, 13 00:00:35,080 --> 00:00:38,000 Speaker 1: eleven am Eastern Matt Mody with the fast break bets. 14 00:00:38,000 --> 00:00:40,120 Speaker 1: They're so fast you can't even see him coming sometimes, 15 00:00:40,479 --> 00:00:42,920 Speaker 1: but you should at least set those notifications so you 16 00:00:42,960 --> 00:00:46,159 Speaker 1: don't miss them. So again Wednesday's Fridays, Matt's taking to 17 00:00:46,200 --> 00:00:48,000 Speaker 1: the NBA slate. Because we are full service here at 18 00:00:48,040 --> 00:00:50,600 Speaker 1: Betting Pros. But you're here for football, and that's what we're 19 00:00:50,560 --> 00:00:52,960 Speaker 1: going to talk about today the week thirteen prop bets 20 00:00:53,000 --> 00:00:57,720 Speaker 1: are upon us and last night Andrew Erickson. Last night 21 00:00:57,800 --> 00:00:59,800 Speaker 1: Joe stra Damas showed up on the Thursday night for 22 00:01:00,680 --> 00:01:03,120 Speaker 1: Joster Damas was there there were no stats to back 23 00:01:03,200 --> 00:01:06,320 Speaker 1: me up. There's nothing that you could have said that 24 00:01:06,959 --> 00:01:09,360 Speaker 1: probably would have supported any of this. It was just 25 00:01:09,520 --> 00:01:13,160 Speaker 1: gut instinct that the Seattle Seahawks would somehow cover the 26 00:01:13,280 --> 00:01:16,000 Speaker 1: nine and a half, but the Cowboys would still win, 27 00:01:16,280 --> 00:01:18,360 Speaker 1: and you should have bet those two things together, and 28 00:01:18,440 --> 00:01:21,080 Speaker 1: if you did, you made a lot of money. Erickson, 29 00:01:21,200 --> 00:01:24,240 Speaker 1: with all the research you do, how much does gut 30 00:01:24,319 --> 00:01:26,399 Speaker 1: instinct go into some of your bets at the end 31 00:01:26,440 --> 00:01:27,040 Speaker 1: of the day. 32 00:01:27,400 --> 00:01:29,080 Speaker 2: I mean, most of the time, my gut instinct just 33 00:01:29,120 --> 00:01:33,360 Speaker 2: tells me to avoid certain games. There will be numbers 34 00:01:33,360 --> 00:01:35,280 Speaker 2: that say, clearly you should just bet on this team, 35 00:01:35,319 --> 00:01:38,280 Speaker 2: But for the other factors that you kind of know 36 00:01:38,319 --> 00:01:40,720 Speaker 2: in the back of your mind, it's like, well, you know, 37 00:01:41,560 --> 00:01:43,080 Speaker 2: the numbers all say this, but at the end of 38 00:01:43,120 --> 00:01:45,080 Speaker 2: the day, like it's still this team versus team and 39 00:01:45,120 --> 00:01:46,880 Speaker 2: there's just one factor that I just can't get over, 40 00:01:46,920 --> 00:01:49,120 Speaker 2: and it's hard to capture it in a model or 41 00:01:49,160 --> 00:01:50,960 Speaker 2: in a number, but it's like, you know, I'm just 42 00:01:51,000 --> 00:01:52,840 Speaker 2: gonna shy away or I'm not going to look towards that. 43 00:01:52,960 --> 00:01:55,560 Speaker 2: So that's kind of what my perception is with that 44 00:01:55,640 --> 00:01:58,680 Speaker 2: gut feeling. And occasionally sometimes it'll drive me if I'm like, 45 00:01:58,720 --> 00:02:01,760 Speaker 2: really fifty to fifty something, but I feel like there's 46 00:02:01,800 --> 00:02:03,440 Speaker 2: some value that I will go with my gut. 47 00:02:04,320 --> 00:02:06,760 Speaker 3: Joe is about to go. So Andrew, how does it 48 00:02:06,800 --> 00:02:09,160 Speaker 3: feel to do all the work that you do? And 49 00:02:09,440 --> 00:02:12,120 Speaker 3: I take a calculated guess and I'm so much smarter. 50 00:02:14,000 --> 00:02:17,000 Speaker 1: It's that little bit of I know they had a 51 00:02:17,040 --> 00:02:18,840 Speaker 1: full week. I get all that stuff. Everybody in a 52 00:02:18,880 --> 00:02:20,720 Speaker 1: full week. It wasn't a normal Thursday night football game, which, 53 00:02:20,720 --> 00:02:22,240 Speaker 1: by the way, how fun was it to watch two 54 00:02:22,240 --> 00:02:24,320 Speaker 1: teams on full rest play on Thursday night? It was 55 00:02:24,360 --> 00:02:26,160 Speaker 1: really good. NFL maybe should make a look at that, 56 00:02:26,600 --> 00:02:29,400 Speaker 1: just saying maybe a little bit. But on top of that, 57 00:02:29,480 --> 00:02:32,400 Speaker 1: you could smell the Cowboys looking ahead to the Eagles. 58 00:02:32,560 --> 00:02:34,919 Speaker 1: You could just sense it. Seeattle had no business being 59 00:02:34,919 --> 00:02:37,320 Speaker 1: in that game. Going into what you've seen recently and 60 00:02:37,360 --> 00:02:37,960 Speaker 1: sometimes that. 61 00:02:38,040 --> 00:02:40,440 Speaker 3: College football though, but it's not college football though. 62 00:02:41,280 --> 00:02:44,560 Speaker 1: You don't have the Cowboys. Though the Cowboys are classic 63 00:02:44,600 --> 00:02:47,119 Speaker 1: for doing this kind of stuff. But well, speaking of guts, 64 00:02:47,760 --> 00:02:49,480 Speaker 1: all the guts are going to be on the line 65 00:02:49,520 --> 00:02:52,360 Speaker 1: this Sunday. Your forty nine ers are taking on the 66 00:02:52,400 --> 00:02:54,840 Speaker 1: Philadelphia Eagles. We may or may not touch on that 67 00:02:54,919 --> 00:02:57,640 Speaker 1: game here in some of the prop bets, But I 68 00:02:57,800 --> 00:03:02,200 Speaker 1: have been on the soap box. I have been pounding 69 00:03:02,240 --> 00:03:04,359 Speaker 1: the table for the Eagles every week here for the 70 00:03:04,440 --> 00:03:07,120 Speaker 1: last I don't know month and change. They're ten and one. 71 00:03:07,160 --> 00:03:09,200 Speaker 1: They're underdogs. It's the first time a ten and one 72 00:03:09,200 --> 00:03:11,200 Speaker 1: team has been an underdog at home, by the way, 73 00:03:11,680 --> 00:03:14,360 Speaker 1: since I don't know, eighteen eighty five. And now all 74 00:03:14,400 --> 00:03:16,880 Speaker 1: of a sudden we get to see the real Brock Party. 75 00:03:17,040 --> 00:03:20,280 Speaker 1: So Welsh, you are mister forty nine er. You are 76 00:03:20,360 --> 00:03:23,720 Speaker 1: mister Cinema Valley. You are mister Wine and she's forty 77 00:03:23,760 --> 00:03:26,560 Speaker 1: nine er fan. You tell me, does Brock Party have 78 00:03:26,720 --> 00:03:31,520 Speaker 1: the goods to go in to Philadelphia and actually come 79 00:03:31,560 --> 00:03:33,760 Speaker 1: out with a big time victory for your forty nine ers? 80 00:03:33,800 --> 00:03:34,639 Speaker 1: What do you think? Yeah? 81 00:03:34,680 --> 00:03:37,119 Speaker 3: By the way, Joe, Joe's been full heel. We talked 82 00:03:37,120 --> 00:03:39,760 Speaker 3: about this at air. I'm like, listen, brother, I heard 83 00:03:39,760 --> 00:03:44,440 Speaker 3: you walking around the streets on Fantasy on Friday. 84 00:03:44,480 --> 00:03:46,400 Speaker 1: Well, she will talk about this game. 85 00:03:46,440 --> 00:03:48,600 Speaker 4: I'll be weading what you gonna do when the Niners come. 86 00:03:48,520 --> 00:03:50,640 Speaker 3: Into Philly and snap one off on you. 87 00:03:50,720 --> 00:03:51,080 Speaker 1: Brother. 88 00:03:52,040 --> 00:03:55,040 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's been pretty intense you've had. But listen, I'll 89 00:03:55,080 --> 00:03:57,320 Speaker 3: tell you this. I don't think brock Purty has to 90 00:03:57,360 --> 00:03:59,880 Speaker 3: prove anything at this point. I think he has proven 91 00:04:00,160 --> 00:04:02,920 Speaker 3: what needs to be done. Guess what does happen? Good 92 00:04:02,920 --> 00:04:07,440 Speaker 3: teams beat good teams. I am shocked that the forty 93 00:04:07,520 --> 00:04:09,920 Speaker 3: nine Ers are a three point favorite on the road 94 00:04:09,920 --> 00:04:12,280 Speaker 3: in Philly. With how good Philly has been as well, 95 00:04:12,320 --> 00:04:15,640 Speaker 3: I think that's a shocking number. But to kind of 96 00:04:15,640 --> 00:04:19,039 Speaker 3: hammer home you know that, Hey, this is brock Purty's opportunity. 97 00:04:19,080 --> 00:04:21,200 Speaker 3: Brock Purtty has gone up against some good defenses, and 98 00:04:21,200 --> 00:04:24,120 Speaker 3: by the way, I'm not sure Philly is exactly one 99 00:04:24,120 --> 00:04:26,960 Speaker 3: of those. Over the last month they have given up 100 00:04:26,960 --> 00:04:29,760 Speaker 3: from a fantasy points perspective, They've given up the most 101 00:04:29,800 --> 00:04:33,640 Speaker 3: fantasy points over last month. Two quarterbacks, and brock Purdy 102 00:04:33,880 --> 00:04:37,000 Speaker 3: has all the weapons. They've got. Their offensive line, Trent 103 00:04:37,000 --> 00:04:38,960 Speaker 3: Williams is out there one of the most important things. 104 00:04:39,160 --> 00:04:42,200 Speaker 3: They lost Ufunga, but their defense is on point. This 105 00:04:42,279 --> 00:04:44,760 Speaker 3: is going to be a problem because a running quarterbacks 106 00:04:45,000 --> 00:04:48,080 Speaker 3: for ages have given the forty nine ers fits if 107 00:04:48,080 --> 00:04:50,120 Speaker 3: they decide to spy. I think that's a good thing. 108 00:04:50,320 --> 00:04:53,000 Speaker 3: This game could go either way. But in my mind, 109 00:04:53,360 --> 00:04:57,080 Speaker 3: Brock Purty has already proven he is an upper tiered quarterback. 110 00:04:57,200 --> 00:05:00,000 Speaker 3: This isn't about him winning in Philly. This is about 111 00:05:00,120 --> 00:05:02,680 Speaker 3: when the forty nine ers are on point, you're not 112 00:05:02,720 --> 00:05:05,160 Speaker 3: beating them. They have proven that this year, when they 113 00:05:05,200 --> 00:05:08,960 Speaker 3: are effective, they will not be beat. So as long 114 00:05:09,040 --> 00:05:10,960 Speaker 3: as that happens, the forty nine Ers win this game. 115 00:05:10,960 --> 00:05:12,880 Speaker 3: But if Philly wins, it's not gonna be a shock there. 116 00:05:12,960 --> 00:05:15,800 Speaker 1: Brother, No, Well we shall see. I know Brock party. 117 00:05:16,120 --> 00:05:18,039 Speaker 1: You know, look at the schedule, the Rams and the 118 00:05:18,120 --> 00:05:21,240 Speaker 1: Giants and the Arizona Cardinals. I'm going to beat the 119 00:05:21,279 --> 00:05:24,839 Speaker 1: Bucks in the Seattle Seahawks. Oh, such great teams. I'm 120 00:05:24,880 --> 00:05:28,200 Speaker 1: so excited to see him. They're beating all those great teams. 121 00:05:28,240 --> 00:05:30,680 Speaker 1: How it's going to I have gone full heel. I 122 00:05:31,080 --> 00:05:34,280 Speaker 1: am so into this and this is gonna be may 123 00:05:34,520 --> 00:05:37,000 Speaker 1: I like the story. I don't know why I'm like this. 124 00:05:37,320 --> 00:05:38,039 Speaker 1: It's just fun. 125 00:05:38,560 --> 00:05:41,320 Speaker 3: This is gonna be This is not gonna be about 126 00:05:41,880 --> 00:05:44,760 Speaker 3: Brock Purty. This is gonna be about the offensive line. 127 00:05:44,839 --> 00:05:46,080 Speaker 3: I can tell you that right now. This will be 128 00:05:46,080 --> 00:05:48,680 Speaker 3: one hundred percent about the offensive line. The Eagles have 129 00:05:48,760 --> 00:05:52,840 Speaker 3: not have given up one hundred yards rushing once this year. 130 00:05:53,080 --> 00:05:54,640 Speaker 3: And you're gonna come in with one of the better 131 00:05:54,720 --> 00:05:57,120 Speaker 3: offensive lines and the best running back in the NFL 132 00:05:57,200 --> 00:06:00,720 Speaker 3: and one of the best twitch players in debo, which 133 00:06:00,760 --> 00:06:03,400 Speaker 3: they can not only throw short passes, but they can 134 00:06:03,440 --> 00:06:06,640 Speaker 3: do into rounds if they utilize that stuff, and they 135 00:06:06,720 --> 00:06:08,800 Speaker 3: can run. I'll tell you this right now. If they 136 00:06:08,880 --> 00:06:12,320 Speaker 3: are effectively running, Eagles are done because you can pass 137 00:06:12,440 --> 00:06:17,240 Speaker 3: all over the Eagles all day long. And we'll see 138 00:06:17,320 --> 00:06:19,280 Speaker 3: exactly about that list. 139 00:06:20,360 --> 00:06:21,279 Speaker 1: That's right, nice plug. 140 00:06:21,279 --> 00:06:24,160 Speaker 2: All right, let's get you didn't mention that the foreigners 141 00:06:24,200 --> 00:06:28,880 Speaker 2: played the Dallas Cowboys and Jaguars Cowboys. They played those 142 00:06:28,880 --> 00:06:31,920 Speaker 2: teams most recently too. That's kind of where they you. 143 00:06:33,240 --> 00:06:37,960 Speaker 1: What is this recent stuff? They played the ten. 144 00:06:39,720 --> 00:06:47,640 Speaker 4: They played the Red that I'm picking. It's gonna be 145 00:06:47,680 --> 00:06:48,400 Speaker 4: picking season. 146 00:06:48,839 --> 00:06:52,200 Speaker 1: The Jahan Wars are made. They barely escaped. 147 00:06:51,839 --> 00:06:55,280 Speaker 2: Houston, the best team against the spread this year. 148 00:06:55,760 --> 00:06:57,320 Speaker 1: Well, it's easy when you're playing other teams in the 149 00:06:57,360 --> 00:07:00,280 Speaker 1: a f C South to be good against the spread. 150 00:07:00,400 --> 00:07:01,960 Speaker 1: Oh stop with the Jaguars. 151 00:07:02,480 --> 00:07:07,120 Speaker 3: No, please shut your mouth piece. Come on, Dallas. 152 00:07:07,160 --> 00:07:10,800 Speaker 2: They crushed Dallas. Crush Dallas, crush Dallas. 153 00:07:10,920 --> 00:07:13,840 Speaker 1: And and that'll give it. They did crush Dallas. 154 00:07:14,160 --> 00:07:15,720 Speaker 2: I will give you the doubt and somebody good. 155 00:07:16,360 --> 00:07:18,440 Speaker 1: That's fine. But that was a week five too before 156 00:07:18,480 --> 00:07:20,000 Speaker 1: they figured out they should throw the football. 157 00:07:20,040 --> 00:07:22,360 Speaker 3: We need we need like uh, you know how we 158 00:07:22,640 --> 00:07:24,480 Speaker 3: if you guys all watch, I guess we should get 159 00:07:24,480 --> 00:07:26,440 Speaker 3: the ways at some point we probably should. But betting 160 00:07:26,480 --> 00:07:29,280 Speaker 3: Pros does a great job of giving away awesome stuff. 161 00:07:29,360 --> 00:07:33,320 Speaker 3: I thoroughly believe this game we should give away a 162 00:07:33,400 --> 00:07:35,680 Speaker 3: jersey from the winning team at the Eagles and forty 163 00:07:35,720 --> 00:07:36,440 Speaker 3: nine Ers next week. 164 00:07:36,440 --> 00:07:38,480 Speaker 1: I'm just putting that out of like a really bad jersey, 165 00:07:38,520 --> 00:07:41,680 Speaker 1: like we gave that jersey. We gotta find like, you know, 166 00:07:41,760 --> 00:07:44,920 Speaker 1: like Fletcher Cox or Fletcher Cox is a good jersey. Actually, 167 00:07:45,080 --> 00:07:46,920 Speaker 1: we got to go deeper than that one with the 168 00:07:47,000 --> 00:07:50,040 Speaker 1: name go with the name on the end. All right, 169 00:07:50,160 --> 00:07:52,240 Speaker 1: let's go to you, Erickson, because you've been quiet here. 170 00:07:52,320 --> 00:07:54,440 Speaker 1: Letting Welsh myself argue, why don't you kick things off 171 00:07:54,480 --> 00:07:57,559 Speaker 1: for us with the prop bets for Week thirteen do it. Brother. 172 00:07:57,880 --> 00:08:00,440 Speaker 2: Going to the Tennessee Titans game gonna start with Levis 173 00:08:00,520 --> 00:08:02,880 Speaker 2: under nineteen and a half completion. So I love the 174 00:08:02,880 --> 00:08:04,480 Speaker 2: Titans this week, but I don't think it's going to 175 00:08:04,520 --> 00:08:06,240 Speaker 2: because of Will Levis that they win. I think it's 176 00:08:06,280 --> 00:08:08,760 Speaker 2: because of Derrick Henry. You look at the Colts defense, 177 00:08:10,200 --> 00:08:12,040 Speaker 2: five of the ten quarterbacks they have faced this year 178 00:08:12,480 --> 00:08:15,520 Speaker 2: have not gone over their completions prop. Because the Colts 179 00:08:15,560 --> 00:08:18,120 Speaker 2: defense is bad at giving up explosive plays, but they 180 00:08:18,120 --> 00:08:20,920 Speaker 2: don't give up like dunk and dime type of passes 181 00:08:20,920 --> 00:08:24,000 Speaker 2: where it's easy attempts. It's usually big plays that they 182 00:08:24,000 --> 00:08:27,640 Speaker 2: give up on defensive That's why that's kind of what 183 00:08:27,680 --> 00:08:29,440 Speaker 2: they do on their defensive side of the ball. So 184 00:08:29,720 --> 00:08:32,000 Speaker 2: when you look at what the quarterbacks have done with 185 00:08:32,520 --> 00:08:36,880 Speaker 2: pass completions, look, Will Levis has nineteenth pass completions only 186 00:08:36,920 --> 00:08:39,720 Speaker 2: once and his five games as a starter, and that 187 00:08:39,760 --> 00:08:41,760 Speaker 2: came against the Falcons and that was his best game. 188 00:08:41,800 --> 00:08:44,440 Speaker 2: He also attempted thirty nine passes in that game. What 189 00:08:44,600 --> 00:08:47,520 Speaker 2: is his passing attempts PROP this week? Thirty one and 190 00:08:47,559 --> 00:08:50,200 Speaker 2: a half. So he's not going to attempt enough passes 191 00:08:50,240 --> 00:08:52,920 Speaker 2: in this game to get anywhere near the completions that 192 00:08:52,960 --> 00:08:55,400 Speaker 2: the books have him at nineteen and a half, when 193 00:08:55,400 --> 00:08:57,840 Speaker 2: he hasn't really even hit that number recently at all. 194 00:08:58,120 --> 00:09:00,280 Speaker 2: So for me, the way that this matchup shape up 195 00:09:00,360 --> 00:09:02,120 Speaker 2: is a lot of Derrick Henry playing at home. They're 196 00:09:02,120 --> 00:09:04,199 Speaker 2: gonna run the football and Will Lewis, if he's going 197 00:09:04,240 --> 00:09:06,040 Speaker 2: to be delivering pass plays, it's going to be more 198 00:09:06,080 --> 00:09:08,800 Speaker 2: of the splash down the field variety and not dink 199 00:09:08,840 --> 00:09:10,280 Speaker 2: and dunk to get him over nineteen and a half. 200 00:09:10,360 --> 00:09:12,559 Speaker 2: So I'm gonna go under on will Leves's completions. 201 00:09:12,679 --> 00:09:15,640 Speaker 1: Now, Welsh, you've got a Will Levis prop as well. 202 00:09:15,679 --> 00:09:16,520 Speaker 1: What is it this week? 203 00:09:16,880 --> 00:09:19,640 Speaker 3: Yeah? I went to the sheet first and I was 204 00:09:19,720 --> 00:09:22,319 Speaker 3: so pleasantly surprised when I saw Ericson join me in this. 205 00:09:22,480 --> 00:09:24,960 Speaker 3: We are we are same game parlaying you guys, by 206 00:09:24,960 --> 00:09:27,400 Speaker 3: the way, because you compare these two. Give me Will 207 00:09:27,480 --> 00:09:31,960 Speaker 3: Levis over one interception. It's minus one ten for him 208 00:09:32,000 --> 00:09:34,480 Speaker 3: to throw a pick. Levis has not thrown a pick 209 00:09:34,520 --> 00:09:37,280 Speaker 3: in two straight games. The two teams that he's gone 210 00:09:37,360 --> 00:09:39,520 Speaker 3: up against were the Panthers and the Jags, who have 211 00:09:39,640 --> 00:09:45,560 Speaker 3: combined for zero interceptions over the last month. Zero Levis 212 00:09:45,600 --> 00:09:48,360 Speaker 3: had a pick in each of his previous games prior 213 00:09:48,400 --> 00:09:51,679 Speaker 3: to that, and the Colts They've got six interceptions over 214 00:09:51,679 --> 00:09:54,400 Speaker 3: the last month, which is third best in the NFL. 215 00:09:54,440 --> 00:09:57,000 Speaker 3: And guess what, Ericson laid it out perfectly when they 216 00:09:57,080 --> 00:10:00,480 Speaker 3: are going deep. Best opportunity for a pick to thrown, 217 00:10:00,800 --> 00:10:03,000 Speaker 3: give me will Lewis throwing a pick on top of 218 00:10:03,080 --> 00:10:05,800 Speaker 3: I completely agree with Ericson on the completion or the 219 00:10:06,040 --> 00:10:08,440 Speaker 3: pass attempts. I might same game partly that bad boy, 220 00:10:08,520 --> 00:10:10,240 Speaker 3: So will Lewis picking it up. 221 00:10:10,280 --> 00:10:12,520 Speaker 1: All right, Ericson, pick us up for another pick. Four 222 00:10:12,520 --> 00:10:13,920 Speaker 1: Week thirteen prop department. 223 00:10:14,600 --> 00:10:17,360 Speaker 2: I no longer bet on Patriots sides and totals because 224 00:10:17,360 --> 00:10:19,240 Speaker 2: I can't bring myself to just bet the under and 225 00:10:19,280 --> 00:10:22,080 Speaker 2: just like be miserable watching the game. So I'm strictly 226 00:10:22,080 --> 00:10:24,360 Speaker 2: sticking to ramondre Stevenson props like that's the only thing 227 00:10:24,360 --> 00:10:26,040 Speaker 2: I'm betting anymore when it comes to the Patriots. So 228 00:10:26,440 --> 00:10:29,040 Speaker 2: ramondre Stevenson over three and a half reception, you get 229 00:10:29,040 --> 00:10:31,959 Speaker 2: this at plus money on draftings plus one ten. Because 230 00:10:31,960 --> 00:10:33,680 Speaker 2: the Chargers are one of these teams that just gets 231 00:10:33,720 --> 00:10:36,600 Speaker 2: absolutely decimated by running backs in the passing game. I'm 232 00:10:36,640 --> 00:10:39,240 Speaker 2: the second most targets third most receptions two running backs 233 00:10:39,240 --> 00:10:41,880 Speaker 2: at six point four this season. I think it should 234 00:10:41,880 --> 00:10:43,640 Speaker 2: really be the simple. The Patriots have no weapons on 235 00:10:43,720 --> 00:10:45,920 Speaker 2: offense except for Mandre. It doesn't look like tomorrow Douglas 236 00:10:45,920 --> 00:10:48,960 Speaker 2: is gonna play. That's gonna more targets for Romandre Stevenson 237 00:10:48,960 --> 00:10:50,920 Speaker 2: as their best player. They've been featuring him more and 238 00:10:51,000 --> 00:10:53,679 Speaker 2: more over the last couple of weeks because what else 239 00:10:53,720 --> 00:10:55,600 Speaker 2: are they supposed to do on offense. And if you 240 00:10:55,640 --> 00:10:58,320 Speaker 2: look at last week and Bill Belichick hasn't named a 241 00:10:58,360 --> 00:11:01,280 Speaker 2: starter yet, even though Bailey's Appy has passing yards props 242 00:11:01,280 --> 00:11:04,000 Speaker 2: that you can bet, so, you know, Hunch says it's 243 00:11:04,000 --> 00:11:06,160 Speaker 2: probably gonna be Bailly Zabi that starts in this game. 244 00:11:06,200 --> 00:11:07,280 Speaker 2: Maybe he doesn't finish. I don't know. 245 00:11:07,320 --> 00:11:08,959 Speaker 1: I don't care because they either way, we take the 246 00:11:09,040 --> 00:11:10,160 Speaker 1: under on everybody. 247 00:11:10,480 --> 00:11:13,520 Speaker 2: When Zabi played last year, his four games, he played 248 00:11:13,559 --> 00:11:16,760 Speaker 2: the most snaps Ramandre Stevenson average four and a half 249 00:11:16,760 --> 00:11:20,480 Speaker 2: catches per game. So there is a chemistry between those 250 00:11:20,520 --> 00:11:22,920 Speaker 2: two players that, hey, if Zabie's in trouble doesn't trust 251 00:11:22,960 --> 00:11:25,280 Speaker 2: his receivers, he's going to check the ball down to Remandre. 252 00:11:25,480 --> 00:11:27,720 Speaker 2: He also went over the three and a half receptions 253 00:11:27,760 --> 00:11:29,360 Speaker 2: in three of those four games. He had one game 254 00:11:29,360 --> 00:11:31,959 Speaker 2: with eight catches. So I think Remandre Steven said, this 255 00:11:31,960 --> 00:11:33,400 Speaker 2: is how I'm gonna joy. This game could be like 256 00:11:33,480 --> 00:11:35,079 Speaker 2: mandre get the catches and then I'm gonna turn the 257 00:11:35,120 --> 00:11:35,600 Speaker 2: TV off. 258 00:11:36,320 --> 00:11:37,920 Speaker 1: I haven't had a game all year that I wanted 259 00:11:37,920 --> 00:11:39,800 Speaker 1: to bet so badly that I can't bring myself to 260 00:11:39,840 --> 00:11:42,520 Speaker 1: bet than this one, because I know that the Chargers 261 00:11:42,520 --> 00:11:43,920 Speaker 1: at a one o'clock game where they have to go 262 00:11:43,960 --> 00:11:44,640 Speaker 1: across the country. 263 00:11:45,520 --> 00:11:47,240 Speaker 2: The thing I was telling you about, right, like, everything 264 00:11:47,280 --> 00:11:48,120 Speaker 2: says bet Chargers. 265 00:11:48,320 --> 00:11:51,480 Speaker 1: Everything says bet Chargers, and that's like going against the 266 00:11:51,640 --> 00:11:54,199 Speaker 1: Bill Belichick team that's completely imploded. They don't even know 267 00:11:54,200 --> 00:11:56,520 Speaker 1: who the quarterback is. I mean, I just I can't 268 00:11:56,559 --> 00:11:59,160 Speaker 1: and I'm having discipline, Welsh. I haven't done it yet, 269 00:11:59,200 --> 00:12:01,200 Speaker 1: and I don't think I'm going this is this is 270 00:12:01,360 --> 00:12:04,520 Speaker 1: new me, new year, knew me kind of thing. Joey 271 00:12:04,520 --> 00:12:06,360 Speaker 1: p from like two years ago would have been all 272 00:12:06,400 --> 00:12:08,240 Speaker 1: over this game and said, Nope, I'm still gonna do 273 00:12:08,280 --> 00:12:10,920 Speaker 1: it anyway. Nope, gotta have the discipline. Who do you 274 00:12:11,080 --> 00:12:14,160 Speaker 1: have interest in in the prop department this week? Well, 275 00:12:14,240 --> 00:12:15,600 Speaker 1: she was number two for you this week. 276 00:12:15,760 --> 00:12:18,400 Speaker 3: Well, if I'm here with my dear friend Andrew Erickson, 277 00:12:18,559 --> 00:12:22,160 Speaker 3: I have to represent Andrew Erickson. I have to drop one, 278 00:12:22,240 --> 00:12:24,400 Speaker 3: and I came up with one, and I'm going with 279 00:12:24,559 --> 00:12:27,360 Speaker 3: Terry McLaurin. His receiving yards under at fifty seven and 280 00:12:27,360 --> 00:12:31,160 Speaker 3: a half. McLaurin hasn't reached this total for three straight weeks. 281 00:12:31,160 --> 00:12:33,120 Speaker 3: And I know that might jump out to people because 282 00:12:33,120 --> 00:12:35,679 Speaker 3: it's it's the Dolphins and Sam Hallan getting from behind. 283 00:12:35,920 --> 00:12:38,240 Speaker 3: Well that hasn't mattered for three weeks as well. He's 284 00:12:38,280 --> 00:12:41,079 Speaker 3: got a blow average wide receiver cornerback rating according to 285 00:12:41,160 --> 00:12:44,680 Speaker 3: PFF it's under fifty, and some of those projections have 286 00:12:44,800 --> 00:12:48,000 Speaker 3: him at fifty total yards three of his last three 287 00:12:48,000 --> 00:12:50,040 Speaker 3: of the last five matchups for the Dolphins, the number 288 00:12:50,080 --> 00:12:53,760 Speaker 3: one wide receiver did not reach this total. The two 289 00:12:53,880 --> 00:12:57,760 Speaker 3: instances that they did, who was aj Brown and DeVante Adams. 290 00:12:58,080 --> 00:13:01,280 Speaker 3: Side note, the number two, Still Bill did not hit 291 00:13:01,360 --> 00:13:05,160 Speaker 3: that number in those as well. So Terry McLaurin, they're 292 00:13:05,200 --> 00:13:07,200 Speaker 3: spreading the ball around. He has just not been a 293 00:13:07,200 --> 00:13:10,640 Speaker 3: big force and that seems like it's not a ginormous number, 294 00:13:10,679 --> 00:13:12,920 Speaker 3: But fifty seven and a half that was enough for me. 295 00:13:13,000 --> 00:13:14,960 Speaker 3: To smack the under. So that's my underplay of the week. 296 00:13:14,960 --> 00:13:17,000 Speaker 1: All right, don't forget everybody. Make sure you're placing all 297 00:13:17,040 --> 00:13:20,080 Speaker 1: your wagers through Betting Pros app, because that's how you 298 00:13:20,080 --> 00:13:22,160 Speaker 1: get the best lines. Sink all your sports books. And 299 00:13:22,200 --> 00:13:25,040 Speaker 1: if you download right now and you haven't downloaded the 300 00:13:25,080 --> 00:13:27,120 Speaker 1: Betting pros app, which again I don't know why you're 301 00:13:27,160 --> 00:13:30,080 Speaker 1: making these bad decisions, make good decisions. Download the app 302 00:13:30,280 --> 00:13:32,480 Speaker 1: and if you have iOS, you get three three days 303 00:13:32,520 --> 00:13:35,760 Speaker 1: of premium to check out exactly how things could be 304 00:13:35,920 --> 00:13:37,840 Speaker 1: for you if you are a premium subscriber. And if 305 00:13:37,880 --> 00:13:40,200 Speaker 1: that's not good enough, you could also comment below on 306 00:13:40,200 --> 00:13:43,480 Speaker 1: this video. And if you subscribe to the channel and 307 00:13:43,520 --> 00:13:45,640 Speaker 1: you like this video, you subscribe, you ring the bell 308 00:13:45,679 --> 00:13:48,000 Speaker 1: you might win a one year free premium upgrade to 309 00:13:48,559 --> 00:13:51,960 Speaker 1: the best betting tools on the planet. Start betting smarter, 310 00:13:52,120 --> 00:13:54,440 Speaker 1: not harder with us here a Betting pros again. Subscribe, 311 00:13:54,480 --> 00:13:58,480 Speaker 1: drop a comment, download the app, have some fun ericson 312 00:13:59,040 --> 00:14:01,960 Speaker 1: good stuff there free you. Uh. Let's go back again 313 00:14:02,360 --> 00:14:04,959 Speaker 1: to you for another pick here. Uh and this one 314 00:14:05,559 --> 00:14:08,880 Speaker 1: is ironically a Miles Sanders one. And wouldn't you know 315 00:14:08,920 --> 00:14:11,000 Speaker 1: it seems like an under can we get a can 316 00:14:11,040 --> 00:14:13,679 Speaker 1: we get a ruling too? I've been calling you Anderson 317 00:14:14,120 --> 00:14:16,960 Speaker 1: because I like when he says all Underson Like, I 318 00:14:17,040 --> 00:14:20,480 Speaker 1: kind of like that. But you said Drickson, Well I. 319 00:14:20,400 --> 00:14:23,200 Speaker 3: Call him Andrew, Andrew Erickson. 320 00:14:22,880 --> 00:14:26,360 Speaker 1: Andrew Ericsson. I like, what do you like better? Andrew? 321 00:14:27,480 --> 00:14:28,360 Speaker 2: I just like Andrew. 322 00:14:28,960 --> 00:14:29,000 Speaker 1: No. 323 00:14:32,120 --> 00:14:34,120 Speaker 2: I just prefer being right honestly, and. 324 00:14:37,560 --> 00:14:39,600 Speaker 1: Wow, all right, why don't you go be right? 325 00:14:39,640 --> 00:14:41,400 Speaker 3: Tell us about the scoreboard for Ericson? 326 00:14:41,960 --> 00:14:44,080 Speaker 2: So this one is my stone cold lock of the week. 327 00:14:44,440 --> 00:14:46,920 Speaker 2: Miles Sanders under eight and a half rushing attempts. Because 328 00:14:46,920 --> 00:14:49,840 Speaker 2: anytime I can find good props to bet unders on on. 329 00:14:49,880 --> 00:14:52,560 Speaker 2: Bad running backs and bad players in general are non 330 00:14:52,600 --> 00:14:56,400 Speaker 2: effective players, I'm gonna take them. So Miles Sanders, when 331 00:14:56,440 --> 00:14:58,600 Speaker 2: you look at why he was brought into Carolina, he 332 00:14:58,680 --> 00:15:01,040 Speaker 2: was brought in with the as head coach, Like with 333 00:15:01,080 --> 00:15:03,200 Speaker 2: Frank Reik, with Josh McCown, with Duce Daley, those guys 334 00:15:03,240 --> 00:15:05,760 Speaker 2: are all gone, Like, so what is Miles Sanders doing 335 00:15:05,800 --> 00:15:08,040 Speaker 2: on this team anymore? Like does he even have a 336 00:15:08,160 --> 00:15:10,640 Speaker 2: role on the offense? Like artisting Chuba Hubbard has kind 337 00:15:10,680 --> 00:15:13,040 Speaker 2: of already taken over as the starting running backs, so 338 00:15:13,040 --> 00:15:14,840 Speaker 2: you know, I have Miles Sanders operating as the RB 339 00:15:14,920 --> 00:15:17,800 Speaker 2: two maybe, but now he has who's in his corner 340 00:15:17,840 --> 00:15:19,880 Speaker 2: saying like, hey, we like get Miles Sanders the ball 341 00:15:19,920 --> 00:15:22,440 Speaker 2: more like that doesn't happen, Like that doesn't exist. So, 342 00:15:22,800 --> 00:15:25,360 Speaker 2: and when we look at the current play caller, Thomas Brown, 343 00:15:26,120 --> 00:15:28,440 Speaker 2: so he called plays from weeks eight through ten. In 344 00:15:28,480 --> 00:15:30,920 Speaker 2: those games, Miles Sanders had the carrying totals of the 345 00:15:30,920 --> 00:15:35,200 Speaker 2: following two, six and two. Honestly, the only way I 346 00:15:35,240 --> 00:15:37,680 Speaker 2: see that this prop doesn't cash is if Miles Sanders 347 00:15:37,720 --> 00:15:38,480 Speaker 2: is a healthy scratch. 348 00:15:39,280 --> 00:15:41,960 Speaker 1: Mhmm, Okay, I like it. I like it a lot. 349 00:15:42,000 --> 00:15:44,360 Speaker 1: All right, back to you Welsh, give us another pick 350 00:15:44,400 --> 00:15:46,560 Speaker 1: for week thirteen. You've got an RB lined up for 351 00:15:46,600 --> 00:15:47,080 Speaker 1: this one. 352 00:15:47,360 --> 00:15:50,080 Speaker 3: I've got an RB, but I'm playing an alt line 353 00:15:50,160 --> 00:15:52,440 Speaker 3: this week. And this is one of those guys. I 354 00:15:52,440 --> 00:15:54,000 Speaker 3: think I have like one or two of these every 355 00:15:54,000 --> 00:15:56,480 Speaker 3: single year where it's just like you're not always gonna 356 00:15:56,480 --> 00:15:58,760 Speaker 3: be right, but if you bet it throughout the entire year, 357 00:15:58,760 --> 00:16:02,120 Speaker 3: you're gonna make money. You haven't made money for the 358 00:16:02,200 --> 00:16:05,240 Speaker 3: last five weeks, but that is altering. It is Bijon 359 00:16:05,360 --> 00:16:09,560 Speaker 3: Robinson receiving yards. It is always in play. It is 360 00:16:09,640 --> 00:16:13,440 Speaker 3: always projected twenty five or higher. It started early in 361 00:16:13,480 --> 00:16:16,720 Speaker 3: the year, it moved into the twenty seven twenty eight range. 362 00:16:16,880 --> 00:16:20,240 Speaker 3: Then he had this little down tick where he wasn't 363 00:16:20,240 --> 00:16:22,280 Speaker 3: getting the ball in the passing game. That changed last week. 364 00:16:22,320 --> 00:16:25,120 Speaker 3: So Bijon missed four straight weeks with this, but then 365 00:16:25,200 --> 00:16:28,920 Speaker 3: hit this past week. He hit this prop. This number. 366 00:16:29,200 --> 00:16:31,320 Speaker 3: By the way, his number is seventeen and a half. 367 00:16:31,600 --> 00:16:35,000 Speaker 3: I'm alt lining this to plus twenty five and I'm 368 00:16:35,040 --> 00:16:37,840 Speaker 3: getting plus one thirty five on this. He hit this 369 00:16:37,960 --> 00:16:40,560 Speaker 3: number on one catch last week on the twenty six yarder. 370 00:16:40,800 --> 00:16:43,280 Speaker 3: And here's a funny thing with this plus twenty five. 371 00:16:43,960 --> 00:16:48,880 Speaker 3: Every game that Bijon Robinson has hit his receiving yard prop, 372 00:16:48,920 --> 00:16:51,760 Speaker 3: which is six times this year, he has gone over 373 00:16:51,840 --> 00:16:56,160 Speaker 3: twenty five. So if he hits it, this is cashing. 374 00:16:56,320 --> 00:16:58,920 Speaker 3: That is what this historically has said this entire season. 375 00:16:59,240 --> 00:17:01,120 Speaker 3: It's seventeen and a half. If you want to play 376 00:17:01,120 --> 00:17:04,160 Speaker 3: the normal number, I want extra juice. So I'm playing 377 00:17:04,160 --> 00:17:07,440 Speaker 3: that outline because it always hits when he does. And 378 00:17:07,720 --> 00:17:10,280 Speaker 3: the Jets this is where you can do that. They 379 00:17:10,320 --> 00:17:12,840 Speaker 3: can throw the ball with Bijon, and I believe they 380 00:17:12,960 --> 00:17:15,800 Speaker 3: average around forty yards receiving to running back. So give 381 00:17:15,840 --> 00:17:19,560 Speaker 3: me Jon Robinson alt receiving yards plus twenty five at 382 00:17:19,560 --> 00:17:20,280 Speaker 3: one thirty five. 383 00:17:20,600 --> 00:17:23,600 Speaker 1: Absolutely love it. And the look of the secret way 384 00:17:23,600 --> 00:17:24,960 Speaker 1: in this football game is given the ball to be 385 00:17:25,040 --> 00:17:27,200 Speaker 1: Jean Robinson gang out of the way. I mean, that's it. 386 00:17:27,720 --> 00:17:29,879 Speaker 1: Don't don't make Desmond Rider do more than he has 387 00:17:29,960 --> 00:17:31,880 Speaker 1: to please. For the love of God, don't make him 388 00:17:31,880 --> 00:17:35,080 Speaker 1: do that. Please for the children, for the for the 389 00:17:35,119 --> 00:17:38,760 Speaker 1: sake of the children. It's the holidays. Just stop, all right, 390 00:17:38,840 --> 00:17:40,960 Speaker 1: Let's get to another one. Number four on your list, 391 00:17:41,000 --> 00:17:42,440 Speaker 1: Andrew Erickson, what do you have for the people? 392 00:17:43,040 --> 00:17:45,200 Speaker 2: So night at football? Christian Watson under three and a 393 00:17:45,240 --> 00:17:48,480 Speaker 2: half receptions? Guys, he has gone over this number one time, 394 00:17:48,920 --> 00:17:51,480 Speaker 2: one time all year, and he did it last week. 395 00:17:51,520 --> 00:17:54,240 Speaker 2: So again it's like, oh, he's finally turned the corner. 396 00:17:54,359 --> 00:17:57,080 Speaker 2: This is great. Yeah, I was against the Lions. So no, like, 397 00:17:57,160 --> 00:17:58,920 Speaker 2: Christian Watson's not going to go over three and a 398 00:17:58,920 --> 00:18:02,000 Speaker 2: half receptions of he could get hood yards, it's not 399 00:18:02,000 --> 00:18:04,200 Speaker 2: gonna be over can on three and a half receptions 400 00:18:04,320 --> 00:18:06,680 Speaker 2: can be on two catches. So I just think that 401 00:18:06,720 --> 00:18:09,240 Speaker 2: the number here is way too high for having one 402 00:18:09,280 --> 00:18:12,280 Speaker 2: game again with four plus catches, and the matchup is brutal. 403 00:18:12,440 --> 00:18:14,480 Speaker 2: Casey's a lot of the leagu's second lowest completion rate 404 00:18:14,600 --> 00:18:17,840 Speaker 2: to wide receivers at fifty five percent, seventh use catches overall, 405 00:18:17,840 --> 00:18:20,080 Speaker 2: Like it's a much tougher matchup. So even if Watson 406 00:18:20,160 --> 00:18:22,359 Speaker 2: is seeing six seven targets, he's seeing targets that are 407 00:18:22,400 --> 00:18:25,480 Speaker 2: down the field, which are least likely to be completed anyway. 408 00:18:25,760 --> 00:18:27,840 Speaker 2: So the reception's number. I just think that is a 409 00:18:27,840 --> 00:18:30,000 Speaker 2: really sharp bet to make on Sunday night, because yeah, 410 00:18:30,000 --> 00:18:31,440 Speaker 2: he could have a big game, but it may only 411 00:18:31,440 --> 00:18:33,119 Speaker 2: come on two or three catches because he's not a 412 00:18:33,200 --> 00:18:36,640 Speaker 2: volume receiver and we've seen Jordan Love historically every single week. 413 00:18:36,800 --> 00:18:39,000 Speaker 2: I do it right with the forecast. Every guy gets 414 00:18:39,040 --> 00:18:41,159 Speaker 2: four or five targets every single week. It's four or 415 00:18:41,160 --> 00:18:43,200 Speaker 2: five targets. No, he doesn't hone in on one guy. 416 00:18:43,400 --> 00:18:46,240 Speaker 2: So if the matchup's not there for Christian Watson, which 417 00:18:46,240 --> 00:18:47,919 Speaker 2: I don't think it will be against the Chiefs, like, 418 00:18:47,960 --> 00:18:50,080 Speaker 2: he's not gonna get Pepper with targets, So taking the 419 00:18:50,160 --> 00:18:51,000 Speaker 2: under on Wall, I'd. 420 00:18:50,840 --> 00:18:53,120 Speaker 3: Also throw in because Jayden reed, they want the ball 421 00:18:53,160 --> 00:18:56,160 Speaker 3: in his hands. Pay attention to his rushing yard prop. 422 00:18:56,280 --> 00:18:58,560 Speaker 3: I played it. I think it was last week at 423 00:18:58,640 --> 00:19:00,960 Speaker 3: I got the alt line plus money at three and 424 00:19:01,040 --> 00:19:03,639 Speaker 3: a half rushing yards, which he crushed, and then it 425 00:19:03,720 --> 00:19:06,760 Speaker 3: opened up pregame to minus money at three and a half. 426 00:19:07,280 --> 00:19:10,080 Speaker 3: Just see if once they get like a health out there, 427 00:19:10,119 --> 00:19:11,760 Speaker 3: see what that number looks like, that would be one. 428 00:19:11,760 --> 00:19:13,399 Speaker 3: I would bet it's just not live and it probably 429 00:19:13,400 --> 00:19:15,520 Speaker 3: won't be live close till but if it's under five, 430 00:19:15,600 --> 00:19:17,639 Speaker 3: I'm playing that because to that point they spread the 431 00:19:17,680 --> 00:19:20,399 Speaker 3: ball around, but they want the ball in Jayden Reed's 432 00:19:20,400 --> 00:19:22,120 Speaker 3: hands and he's their little mini debo. 433 00:19:22,440 --> 00:19:25,840 Speaker 1: And Ericson is not buying the Christian watching new trend. 434 00:19:25,920 --> 00:19:28,840 Speaker 1: No Watson new trend at all, not happening. Just to 435 00:19:28,920 --> 00:19:30,919 Speaker 1: one off. All right, let's get to number four on 436 00:19:30,960 --> 00:19:33,080 Speaker 1: your list, Welsh, what do you have for week thirteen? 437 00:19:33,080 --> 00:19:33,240 Speaker 2: Now? 438 00:19:33,280 --> 00:19:35,760 Speaker 3: These next two are just like my favorites. I'm going 439 00:19:35,800 --> 00:19:38,920 Speaker 3: with Pat Firemouth receiving yards. It's thirty two and a half. 440 00:19:39,000 --> 00:19:42,360 Speaker 3: Last week with Matt Canada gone eleven targets. 441 00:19:42,359 --> 00:19:43,399 Speaker 4: He had nine. 442 00:19:43,240 --> 00:19:46,520 Speaker 3: Catches, which was beautiful as far as the Titan matchup goes. 443 00:19:46,920 --> 00:19:49,159 Speaker 3: If you look over on PFF, he is up against 444 00:19:49,160 --> 00:19:52,000 Speaker 3: the worst graded cover linebacker in the league and Donovan 445 00:19:52,040 --> 00:19:55,600 Speaker 3: Woods according to PFF and given the second best matchup 446 00:19:55,760 --> 00:20:00,200 Speaker 3: advantage overall, Cardinals are averaging thirty seven yards to tight 447 00:20:00,280 --> 00:20:02,640 Speaker 3: ends right now, and for of the last six matchups, 448 00:20:02,680 --> 00:20:05,280 Speaker 3: the tight end has beat this the other two we're 449 00:20:05,320 --> 00:20:08,640 Speaker 3: thirty one yards and thirty two yards. Parrymuth is going 450 00:20:08,680 --> 00:20:11,119 Speaker 3: to be open. He is a new focal point of 451 00:20:11,160 --> 00:20:13,720 Speaker 3: the offense and it doesn't matter which quarterback is there. 452 00:20:13,920 --> 00:20:16,320 Speaker 3: I played the receiving receptions as well. I think it 453 00:20:16,400 --> 00:20:18,040 Speaker 3: might be plus money at three and a half. But 454 00:20:18,160 --> 00:20:21,159 Speaker 3: this is a low receiving yard total and this is 455 00:20:21,240 --> 00:20:24,919 Speaker 3: an amazing matchup against tight ends against this defense. 456 00:20:25,000 --> 00:20:27,120 Speaker 1: All right, So here's a trend that welsh is buying. 457 00:20:27,400 --> 00:20:30,199 Speaker 1: Pat Frye Mooth's triumphant return to the Steelers offense. All right, 458 00:20:30,280 --> 00:20:33,399 Speaker 1: Number five on your list. Andrew Erickson for Week thirteen. 459 00:20:34,280 --> 00:20:35,679 Speaker 2: For what it's worth, the had of dream last night. 460 00:20:35,720 --> 00:20:39,199 Speaker 2: Kenny Pickett went absolutely nuclear in this game, So I like, I. 461 00:20:39,200 --> 00:20:41,159 Speaker 1: Think it's because we spent I think it's because we 462 00:20:41,160 --> 00:20:43,480 Speaker 1: spent all that time talking about Kenny Pickett yesterday on 463 00:20:43,480 --> 00:20:45,040 Speaker 1: the show. On the FP show, You Me and Debro 464 00:20:45,119 --> 00:20:46,760 Speaker 1: I think that's pretty much what it was. There was 465 00:20:46,800 --> 00:20:48,320 Speaker 1: a lot of Kenny Pickett discussion there. 466 00:20:48,840 --> 00:20:50,879 Speaker 2: I'm just doing all the Kenny Pickett overs and all 467 00:20:50,880 --> 00:20:53,120 Speaker 2: of his receivers because they're all still, they're all baked 468 00:20:53,160 --> 00:20:55,280 Speaker 2: in that Metcanna's the coach still when he's not, He's 469 00:20:55,280 --> 00:20:58,959 Speaker 2: got all right fun at football. Evan Ingram over four 470 00:20:59,000 --> 00:21:01,399 Speaker 2: and a half receptions can and some overaction here. I 471 00:21:01,680 --> 00:21:04,080 Speaker 2: have some fun plus money plus one oh five. Evan 472 00:21:04,200 --> 00:21:06,520 Speaker 2: Ingram last week at five catch to eight targets, twenty 473 00:21:06,560 --> 00:21:09,480 Speaker 2: two percent target share led the team. Look, he's steady 474 00:21:09,520 --> 00:21:11,320 Speaker 2: as they come. Doesn't get a lot of red zone targets, 475 00:21:11,320 --> 00:21:13,119 Speaker 2: even though Trevor Lawrence did miss him wide open in 476 00:21:13,160 --> 00:21:14,800 Speaker 2: the end zone last week. More to come with that, 477 00:21:15,160 --> 00:21:18,600 Speaker 2: but great matchup this week against the Bengals. Again. We 478 00:21:18,680 --> 00:21:21,160 Speaker 2: just saw what Pat Fremis did to the Cincinnati Bengals defense. 479 00:21:21,160 --> 00:21:23,879 Speaker 2: Absolutely shredded them over one hundred yards. I like the 480 00:21:23,960 --> 00:21:27,200 Speaker 2: receptions prop because it's plus money. Evan Ingram has four 481 00:21:27,280 --> 00:21:30,000 Speaker 2: catches at least in every single game he's played this year. 482 00:21:30,080 --> 00:21:32,000 Speaker 2: His prop is at four and a half. He's only 483 00:21:32,080 --> 00:21:34,920 Speaker 2: been under that number in three games. Hit the over 484 00:21:35,040 --> 00:21:37,120 Speaker 2: eight of eleven, and a lot of those games where 485 00:21:37,160 --> 00:21:39,000 Speaker 2: he didn't hit over four and a half receptions were 486 00:21:39,040 --> 00:21:42,159 Speaker 2: in tougher matchups. Again, this is a great matchup for 487 00:21:42,240 --> 00:21:44,160 Speaker 2: the tight position they're trying to get Evan Ingram the ball, 488 00:21:44,320 --> 00:21:46,520 Speaker 2: especially a roal and more around the red zone. So 489 00:21:46,680 --> 00:21:48,320 Speaker 2: I love him on Monday Night to go over four 490 00:21:48,320 --> 00:21:49,199 Speaker 2: and a half catches. 491 00:21:49,280 --> 00:21:52,000 Speaker 1: All right, before we get to our anytime touchdown calls 492 00:21:52,040 --> 00:21:53,680 Speaker 1: in just a second, Welsh, We've got one more prop 493 00:21:53,760 --> 00:21:56,600 Speaker 1: for Week thirteen, and it involves a Tampa Bay running 494 00:21:56,640 --> 00:21:57,480 Speaker 1: back for Seaued White. 495 00:21:58,720 --> 00:22:01,879 Speaker 3: Yes give me, I love me some Rashad White projections 496 00:22:01,920 --> 00:22:05,320 Speaker 3: putting around sixty eight yards sixteen carries. The number is 497 00:22:05,440 --> 00:22:08,360 Speaker 3: sixty two and a half going up against the Panthers. 498 00:22:08,440 --> 00:22:11,000 Speaker 3: Eight of the eight of twelve weeks the number one 499 00:22:11,080 --> 00:22:14,160 Speaker 3: running back has hit this total against Panthers. Only one 500 00:22:14,200 --> 00:22:18,879 Speaker 3: of the three matchups it didn't hit was the running 501 00:22:19,000 --> 00:22:23,320 Speaker 3: back having twelve carries or less or I'm sorry the 502 00:22:23,400 --> 00:22:26,920 Speaker 3: three that they did not hit. Two of those three, 503 00:22:27,080 --> 00:22:29,520 Speaker 3: those running backs only had twelve carries in that game. 504 00:22:30,040 --> 00:22:33,320 Speaker 3: So what this is saying is if the running back 505 00:22:33,400 --> 00:22:36,520 Speaker 3: has fifteen or more carries, this is hitting he has 506 00:22:36,600 --> 00:22:39,120 Speaker 3: projected at sixteen. He has had twenty over the last 507 00:22:39,160 --> 00:22:43,520 Speaker 3: two White is a lock to hit this one against 508 00:22:43,560 --> 00:22:46,919 Speaker 3: the Panthers. It literally doesn't hit unless there isn't volume 509 00:22:47,000 --> 00:22:49,399 Speaker 3: given to the running back, and he is the force 510 00:22:49,480 --> 00:22:51,919 Speaker 3: of this. I don't care if this number drags up 511 00:22:51,920 --> 00:22:54,639 Speaker 3: a little bit. Give me Rashad White rushing yard sixty 512 00:22:54,720 --> 00:22:57,639 Speaker 3: two and a half over. I might even alter it 513 00:22:57,680 --> 00:23:01,719 Speaker 3: and see what it looks like at eighty over of mesummershad. 514 00:23:01,080 --> 00:23:04,960 Speaker 1: White and guys gass out there listening to the show. 515 00:23:05,240 --> 00:23:07,520 Speaker 1: Use the prop bet cheat sheet over on betting pros. 516 00:23:07,760 --> 00:23:09,720 Speaker 1: Use the tools that we have here because it shows 517 00:23:09,760 --> 00:23:12,480 Speaker 1: you these projections that we've been talking about against the 518 00:23:12,560 --> 00:23:14,360 Speaker 1: lines and then the best place you're going to get 519 00:23:14,640 --> 00:23:17,240 Speaker 1: the best number at the best house. So literally it 520 00:23:17,359 --> 00:23:20,720 Speaker 1: is handing you the cheat codes for all these prop bets. 521 00:23:20,800 --> 00:23:23,160 Speaker 1: So outside of listening to the show, make sure you're 522 00:23:23,240 --> 00:23:26,160 Speaker 1: going on using the app. Go to the prop bet 523 00:23:26,240 --> 00:23:28,320 Speaker 1: cheat sheet, the prop bet Analyzer, take a look at 524 00:23:28,359 --> 00:23:30,160 Speaker 1: all of those amazing tools. You can go game by game, 525 00:23:30,240 --> 00:23:33,240 Speaker 1: prop by prop whatever floats your boat, but please go 526 00:23:33,440 --> 00:23:35,920 Speaker 1: check it out because it is an absolute banger of 527 00:23:36,000 --> 00:23:38,240 Speaker 1: a tool. All right, let's get to the anytime touchdown 528 00:23:38,280 --> 00:23:42,320 Speaker 1: calls ericson. I know you've been harpin' all week about 529 00:23:42,760 --> 00:23:46,119 Speaker 1: Texans tight ends. Dalton Schultz is not gonna play, So 530 00:23:46,240 --> 00:23:47,120 Speaker 1: what does that mean. 531 00:23:48,240 --> 00:23:50,639 Speaker 2: It's Brevit Jordan time. First it was Michael Jordan, but 532 00:23:50,720 --> 00:23:53,600 Speaker 2: now it's Brevit Jordan's. Yeah. Clearly, Broncos are one of 533 00:23:53,600 --> 00:23:55,840 Speaker 2: the worst defense in the NFL against tight ends dead 534 00:23:55,920 --> 00:23:57,960 Speaker 2: last fantasy points per game to the position first, and 535 00:23:58,080 --> 00:24:00,359 Speaker 2: yards allowed to the position first, and touchdown it's allowed 536 00:24:00,400 --> 00:24:03,640 Speaker 2: to the position. So Brevin Jordan is the next man 537 00:24:03,800 --> 00:24:06,399 Speaker 2: up and tight end. He played nearly fifty percent of 538 00:24:06,440 --> 00:24:08,480 Speaker 2: the snaps last week while spending time with Dalton Schultz, 539 00:24:08,520 --> 00:24:10,280 Speaker 2: who was dealing with a hamstring injury that's going to 540 00:24:10,600 --> 00:24:13,000 Speaker 2: knock him out of the next game. But I don't 541 00:24:13,000 --> 00:24:14,600 Speaker 2: think that that means that we're not going to see 542 00:24:14,600 --> 00:24:16,320 Speaker 2: the production because I don't think Dalton Schultz is like 543 00:24:16,400 --> 00:24:19,280 Speaker 2: some special Oh he's so great that he's going to 544 00:24:19,359 --> 00:24:21,760 Speaker 2: make the production. No, it's a result of being attached 545 00:24:21,760 --> 00:24:24,200 Speaker 2: to C. J. Stroud, Like that's what you want. And 546 00:24:24,240 --> 00:24:26,240 Speaker 2: if Brevin Jordan is out there playing seventy five percent 547 00:24:26,240 --> 00:24:29,000 Speaker 2: of snaps, specifically playing all the snaps in the red 548 00:24:29,119 --> 00:24:31,640 Speaker 2: zone as he did last week. I think he's gonna 549 00:24:31,640 --> 00:24:33,800 Speaker 2: find the end zone. And right now at this when 550 00:24:33,800 --> 00:24:35,760 Speaker 2: I looked at it before earlier, was plus three eighty 551 00:24:35,960 --> 00:24:37,760 Speaker 2: for any time touchdown for Brevin Jordan. We know c 552 00:24:37,920 --> 00:24:41,280 Speaker 2: just Droud's gonna throw a three probably, so I like 553 00:24:41,320 --> 00:24:43,040 Speaker 2: Brevin Jordan has some longer odds. 554 00:24:43,280 --> 00:24:45,840 Speaker 1: I would say also in DFS you should be paying 555 00:24:45,840 --> 00:24:47,520 Speaker 1: attention to that too, because he is going to be 556 00:24:47,640 --> 00:24:49,679 Speaker 1: one of those men's salary kind of guys floating out 557 00:24:49,720 --> 00:24:51,639 Speaker 1: there is going to be very cheap. Certainly something to 558 00:24:51,680 --> 00:24:54,960 Speaker 1: look you know, since Schultz this morning got ruled out 559 00:24:55,320 --> 00:24:56,199 Speaker 1: for this weekend, is. 560 00:24:56,200 --> 00:24:57,400 Speaker 2: It official he's ruled out. 561 00:24:57,680 --> 00:24:59,920 Speaker 1: I just saw it come across and so he is kno. 562 00:25:00,160 --> 00:25:00,520 Speaker 3: To play it. 563 00:25:01,119 --> 00:25:02,639 Speaker 2: I just saw that he had two dnps and I 564 00:25:02,760 --> 00:25:04,520 Speaker 2: wasn't sure if I just saw that he was not 565 00:25:04,760 --> 00:25:05,520 Speaker 2: expected to play. 566 00:25:05,640 --> 00:25:07,399 Speaker 1: That's what I just saw. Now again, make sure you 567 00:25:07,440 --> 00:25:09,240 Speaker 1: know you stay on top of things with my playbooks. 568 00:25:09,320 --> 00:25:11,200 Speaker 1: You know exactly what's going on. I want to see 569 00:25:11,240 --> 00:25:13,960 Speaker 1: if that number might have moved potentially with that information. 570 00:25:14,400 --> 00:25:17,359 Speaker 1: Looking right now over on Fandle Brevin Jordan plus three sixty, 571 00:25:17,400 --> 00:25:19,159 Speaker 1: So you're still in a good spot there. All right, 572 00:25:19,240 --> 00:25:21,920 Speaker 1: let's go to you Welsh call a touchdown and it 573 00:25:22,040 --> 00:25:24,800 Speaker 1: might be a theme developing here for your pix this week. 574 00:25:25,040 --> 00:25:26,639 Speaker 3: Well, and I hit mine the last time I was 575 00:25:26,720 --> 00:25:28,880 Speaker 3: on the show, and there is a theme. We're tight 576 00:25:29,000 --> 00:25:31,440 Speaker 3: ending it and I'm going to be going right back 577 00:25:31,480 --> 00:25:34,920 Speaker 3: to Pat Firemooth give me any time touchdown his anytime touchdown, 578 00:25:35,000 --> 00:25:38,359 Speaker 3: by the way, plus two seventy. That's a great number 579 00:25:38,520 --> 00:25:41,560 Speaker 3: for this matchup, especially up against the Cardinals, who have 580 00:25:41,680 --> 00:25:44,840 Speaker 3: given up the most touchdowns to tight ends over the 581 00:25:44,920 --> 00:25:48,320 Speaker 3: last month. Obviously, Ericson, you picked on the season total 582 00:25:48,640 --> 00:25:51,080 Speaker 3: over the last month. The Cardinals are getting torched. We 583 00:25:51,240 --> 00:25:55,920 Speaker 3: also have this very important analytical set here. Ericson dreamed 584 00:25:55,920 --> 00:25:59,160 Speaker 3: about this, Ericson dreamed about pick it blowing this team 585 00:25:59,280 --> 00:26:02,720 Speaker 3: up and is the best odds you're going to get 586 00:26:02,760 --> 00:26:04,840 Speaker 3: of any of these And he was one of the 587 00:26:04,920 --> 00:26:07,680 Speaker 3: top targeted players last week and this maybe this new 588 00:26:07,720 --> 00:26:11,240 Speaker 3: Matt Canada list offense. So the matchup speaks for it. 589 00:26:11,640 --> 00:26:14,920 Speaker 3: The touchdown defensively against the Cardinals speak for it. Pat 590 00:26:14,960 --> 00:26:17,600 Speaker 3: Firemouth that almost three to one, you'll probably end up 591 00:26:17,600 --> 00:26:19,480 Speaker 3: getting in at two and a half to one is 592 00:26:19,560 --> 00:26:22,840 Speaker 3: a steal of a bet. So yes we are tight 593 00:26:22,920 --> 00:26:24,600 Speaker 3: end anytime, touchdowning it this week? 594 00:26:24,800 --> 00:26:26,920 Speaker 1: Okay, So fried Mouth gets to the end zone, Brevin 595 00:26:27,000 --> 00:26:28,639 Speaker 1: Jordan gets to the end zone. You heard it here. 596 00:26:28,840 --> 00:26:30,680 Speaker 1: Ericson likes the under on the nineteen and a half 597 00:26:30,720 --> 00:26:33,000 Speaker 1: completions for Will Levis, the over on three and a 598 00:26:33,000 --> 00:26:35,280 Speaker 1: half receptions for Stevenson, the under eight and a half 599 00:26:35,359 --> 00:26:38,680 Speaker 1: rushing attempts for Miles Sanders, Christian Watson. No trend here, 600 00:26:38,800 --> 00:26:41,400 Speaker 1: not with Andrew Rickson under three and a half receptions, 601 00:26:41,440 --> 00:26:44,199 Speaker 1: Evan Ingram over four and a half receptions. Welsh has 602 00:26:44,200 --> 00:26:46,639 Speaker 1: also been on Levis with the interception over at the 603 00:26:46,800 --> 00:26:49,880 Speaker 1: point five mark Ter McLaurin receiving yards under fifty seven 604 00:26:49,880 --> 00:26:52,840 Speaker 1: and a half, vijon the alternate receiving yards at plus 605 00:26:52,960 --> 00:26:56,320 Speaker 1: twenty five at plus one thirty five, Pratt Fryarmoth not 606 00:26:56,359 --> 00:26:58,080 Speaker 1: only to get that touchdown but also over on the 607 00:26:58,119 --> 00:27:00,600 Speaker 1: receiving yards of thirty two and a half. Shad White 608 00:27:00,680 --> 00:27:02,479 Speaker 1: over the sixty two and a half. As long as 609 00:27:02,520 --> 00:27:06,040 Speaker 1: he gets those fifteen carries, that certainly looks good. All right, 610 00:27:06,200 --> 00:27:09,680 Speaker 1: it's go time, gonna close out strong ericson. Give me 611 00:27:09,800 --> 00:27:13,080 Speaker 1: the score and outcome of the Eagles San Francisco forty 612 00:27:13,160 --> 00:27:13,640 Speaker 1: nine er game. 613 00:27:14,880 --> 00:27:16,520 Speaker 2: All right, so I bet you over on the game. 614 00:27:16,560 --> 00:27:18,119 Speaker 2: So I gotta make sure the points at up to 615 00:27:18,520 --> 00:27:22,399 Speaker 2: over forty seven points. So let's go with. Let's San 616 00:27:22,440 --> 00:27:25,359 Speaker 2: Francisco pretty much scores thirty points against everybody. So let's 617 00:27:25,400 --> 00:27:30,879 Speaker 2: say let's go San Francisco thirty, Philadelphia twenty. 618 00:27:31,800 --> 00:27:34,879 Speaker 1: Okay, h Philadelphia twenty All right, there he goes obviously 619 00:27:35,000 --> 00:27:38,119 Speaker 1: forty nine ers. Welsh does prediction time, Go ahead and 620 00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:38,640 Speaker 1: make a count. 621 00:27:39,160 --> 00:27:44,919 Speaker 3: All right, we're gonna go twenty three twenty seven San Francisco. Okay, 622 00:27:45,119 --> 00:27:47,400 Speaker 3: all right, thirty three thirty three, thirty three, twenty seven 623 00:27:47,960 --> 00:27:50,359 Speaker 3: three thirty three twenty seven San Francisco thirty three. 624 00:27:50,280 --> 00:27:54,480 Speaker 1: Two All right, I am going to go. Let's see, 625 00:27:54,840 --> 00:28:00,359 Speaker 1: let's make it twenty eight to twenty. Philadelphia's right, the 626 00:28:00,480 --> 00:28:04,639 Speaker 1: Eagles carry the day and hopefully brock Purty. You know, 627 00:28:05,040 --> 00:28:07,240 Speaker 1: I like an underdog story. I'm a Tom Brady fan. 628 00:28:07,720 --> 00:28:09,159 Speaker 1: I love the guys to get picked late to have 629 00:28:09,200 --> 00:28:10,119 Speaker 1: great NFL careers. 630 00:28:10,119 --> 00:28:13,359 Speaker 2: I just want to see it happen, and if it underdogs, 631 00:28:13,840 --> 00:28:17,160 Speaker 2: that's why underdogs. 632 00:28:17,280 --> 00:28:19,680 Speaker 1: That's true, but he's still an underdog story. I still 633 00:28:19,720 --> 00:28:20,399 Speaker 1: think if I'm not. 634 00:28:20,600 --> 00:28:23,600 Speaker 2: To Vegas, Vegas, like, hey, he's proven, he's favored. 635 00:28:23,680 --> 00:28:25,560 Speaker 1: I wonder how the Eagles feel about that line. 636 00:28:25,680 --> 00:28:27,200 Speaker 2: I wonder how the corn I feel that they didn't 637 00:28:27,200 --> 00:28:29,400 Speaker 2: get the fair shot at the Eagles last year, a fair. 638 00:28:29,320 --> 00:28:35,600 Speaker 1: Shot they walked in, didn't They then walked out on 639 00:28:35,680 --> 00:28:38,000 Speaker 1: a stretcher. You'd think I'm an Eagles fan the way 640 00:28:38,000 --> 00:28:39,880 Speaker 1: I'm teasing this, But wel sshould be careful when you 641 00:28:39,960 --> 00:28:42,880 Speaker 1: leave the studio today. There might be a metal chair 642 00:28:43,000 --> 00:28:45,080 Speaker 1: right to the back. You never know what's gonna happen. 643 00:28:46,800 --> 00:28:49,040 Speaker 1: This has been so much fun. Guys, again, don't forget 644 00:28:49,080 --> 00:28:50,920 Speaker 1: to subscribe to the channel. Make sure you're going to 645 00:28:51,040 --> 00:28:53,520 Speaker 1: the Betting Pros dot com slash NFL contest too. Make 646 00:28:53,560 --> 00:28:55,680 Speaker 1: all your picks count. There's still weekly prizes and monthly 647 00:28:55,760 --> 00:28:58,440 Speaker 1: prizes to be one and subscribe to the Betting Pros 648 00:28:58,480 --> 00:29:01,120 Speaker 1: YouTube channel so you know every time content drops here 649 00:29:01,360 --> 00:29:03,080 Speaker 1: and if you comment below, you just might win a 650 00:29:03,120 --> 00:29:05,680 Speaker 1: one year free premium upgrade to the best betting tools 651 00:29:05,680 --> 00:29:07,040 Speaker 1: on the planet. That'll do it for us. But the 652 00:29:07,120 --> 00:29:09,520 Speaker 1: story of the game goes on for Andrew Erickson and 653 00:29:09,600 --> 00:29:13,920 Speaker 1: the Welsh. I'm Joey P and we'll see you next time. Kids. 654 00:29:14,440 --> 00:29:17,160 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you 655 00:29:17,240 --> 00:29:19,560 Speaker 1: love the show, the best freeway to support us is 656 00:29:19,600 --> 00:29:23,000 Speaker 1: by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 657 00:29:23,360 --> 00:29:25,920 Speaker 1: Follow us on x and TikTok at betting Pros and 658 00:29:26,080 --> 00:29:29,720 Speaker 1: Instagram at betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube 659 00:29:29,800 --> 00:29:32,240 Speaker 1: channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros.