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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game? Do us proud

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Speaker 1: read a lot? They're a running a game so smoothe

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Speaker 1: so sweet, splendid sixteen just glorious execution.

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Speaker 2: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent efforts four

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Speaker 2: thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 3: How shot with that?

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Speaker 4: Shop with mine?

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Speaker 1: Good buddy, And that's why you see your beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 4: Look at his movements, the.

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Speaker 3: Most dangerous amount of the planet. Nobody picture them.

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Speaker 4: Shut up. I'm trying again.

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Speaker 1: The all it's left to one, the wide eyed drill refuge.

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Speaker 1: How old Earth picked that happens?

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Speaker 4: Hello everybody, Welcome back to One Ago, the Soccer Betting

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Speaker 4: podcast from the Action Network, presented to you by our

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Speaker 4: new sponsor, Bettery six five, the best sports book in

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Speaker 4: the world. This is our Champions League betting preview. We'll

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Speaker 4: take a look at some outright bets we like, some

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Speaker 4: long shots. We'll go group by group, give out some

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Speaker 4: bets we like and as many groups as we have,

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Speaker 4: and then we'll wrap this thing up and get back

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Speaker 4: to our normal programming with our Thursday morning show looking

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Speaker 4: at the Premier League, et cetera. A quick overview of

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Speaker 4: the odds to win the Champions League. These are of

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Speaker 4: course at BET three six five man City. No surprise here,

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Speaker 4: they're the champions plus two to fifty. Then it goes

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Speaker 4: to PSG plus five hundred, Liverpool just behind them plus

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Speaker 4: five fifty, Bayron plus six fifty, Real Madrid nine to one,

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Speaker 4: Tottenham fourteen to one. It's a little short Chelsea sixteen

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Speaker 4: to one, Barcelona twenty to one, at Letty twenty eight

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Speaker 4: to one, Juve forty to one, Enter fifty to one,

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Speaker 4: Dortmund fifty to one, ac Milan sixty six to one,

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Speaker 4: IX one hundred to one. So are Leipzig, Porto, Napoli, Salzburg,

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Speaker 4: they're all one hundred and fifty to one, Bayer Leverkusen

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Speaker 4: two hundred to one, Sevia two fifty to one. So

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Speaker 4: our Celtic Frankfurt Rangers, ben Fica, Marseille, BJ's boys they're

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Speaker 4: four hundred to one, Sporting Bruges five hundred to one.

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Speaker 4: Then Copenhagen, Shoktar Dinomo Zagreb, Victoria Pleasant out of the

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Speaker 4: Czech Republic, and then Maculbee Haifa out of Israel. They're

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Speaker 4: all true, true long shots in the quadruple digits. So

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Speaker 4: BJ we just ran through the odds. I think we

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Speaker 4: do have some agreement on one team all three of

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Speaker 4: us like for a bet, but what is your favorite outright?

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Speaker 1: I like Barcelona at twenty to one. I think that's

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Speaker 1: a little high, and I think you're getting this price

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Speaker 1: at twenty to one because they're in a group of

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Speaker 1: death with Inter and Bayern Munich. I mean, since Shavi

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Speaker 1: took over on November sixth to twenty twenty one, Barcelona

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Speaker 1: has about a one expected gold differential per ninety minutes.

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Speaker 1: That is, only teams that have done better than that

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Speaker 1: since that date are City, Liverpool, Bayron, Intern PSG. And

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Speaker 1: you have to factor in also that La Liga is

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Speaker 1: clearing away this second most difficult league in Europe. So

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Speaker 1: very impressive stuff from Shaby. Then you look at what

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Speaker 1: they got in the transfer and though they bring in

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Speaker 1: Robert Lemanowski, who you know, obviously he's getting older, but

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Speaker 1: last season he was a one point zero eight XG

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Speaker 1: per ninety minute striker. Now you have maybe those numbers

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Speaker 1: will go down a little bit in La Liga versus

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Speaker 1: the open Bundesliga. But now they have a reliable striking

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Speaker 1: option which they didn't have last year. And you know

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Speaker 1: the pieces they also brought in you know, put aside

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Speaker 1: whatever's going on with their financials right now, but they

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Speaker 1: bring in Rafina and Franic Casse from Nacy Milan. They

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Speaker 1: just brought in Julis Koonde to shore up their defense.

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Speaker 1: So this is a really, really good team. And listen,

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Speaker 1: we all know the history with Bayern in this group,

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Speaker 1: and if they get out of this group, there's no

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Speaker 1: way they're going to be sitting at twenty to one,

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Speaker 1: no matter who they draw in the round of sixteen.

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Speaker 1: You look at how much they've changed under Shabi versus

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Speaker 1: where they were under Komen. They now lead La Liga

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Speaker 1: and pass per defensive action, high turnovers and pressure success right.

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Speaker 1: They turned into a really really good pressing team. They

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Speaker 1: also have one hundred and sixty seven build up attacks

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Speaker 1: under Shabi. The only teams that have more than that

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Speaker 1: among Europe's top five leagues are sitting in Real Madrid.

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Speaker 1: And so I like Barcelona at twenty to one. I

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Speaker 1: think it's a really good price for a team that

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Speaker 1: could make a big step forward adding Lewandowski. So let's

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Speaker 1: be honest, like if they were in Tottham's position in

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Speaker 1: that group, and how easy that group is Barcelona be

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Speaker 1: ten to one to win the Champions League. So I

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Speaker 1: think you're getting an inflated price basically betting on them

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Speaker 1: trying to get out of this group. And then yeah,

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Speaker 1: at twenty to one, I think it's a fantastic price

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Speaker 1: for you know, essentially a top six team in the world. Yeah.

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Speaker 4: I like the price on Barcelona too, I like another

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Speaker 4: team in La Liga. This is a bet I basically

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Speaker 4: make every season.

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Speaker 1: At I'm with you on this one too. One.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, if you're always out though, this is how this

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Speaker 4: goes over and then you change your tune as we

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Speaker 4: get towards the knockout stages. Here's their group Bruge Porto

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Speaker 4: Leverkus and their minus three fifty two advance. They should

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Speaker 4: get through that. Remember last year they took City to

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Speaker 4: the wire. They lost one nil on aggregate across two

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Speaker 4: legs in an absolute circus at the wander Metropolitano at

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Speaker 4: the end there. But that's what they do. They're just

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Speaker 4: a really tough team to knock out in these one

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Speaker 4: off legs, so that's why I like buying them last

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Speaker 4: three seasons. Of course, this is La Liga, so it's

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Speaker 4: a much more defensive league. But forty three goals against

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Speaker 4: thirty five point eight expected goals, previous year twenty five

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Speaker 4: against on thirty five point seven expected goals, and then

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Speaker 4: the year before that twenty seven goals against thirty five

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Speaker 4: and a half expectacle. So this is just a defensive powerhouse.

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Speaker 4: Under Simeoni, we know that they're just an absolute bear

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Speaker 4: to deal with as we get deeper in the competition,

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Speaker 4: and they'll get there, maybe a little bit of a

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Speaker 4: kinder draw for at Letti this time around, and who knows,

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Speaker 4: we'll see them make a little bit.

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Speaker 2: Of a run.

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Speaker 4: Anthony, you also like Barcelona, so I think all three

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Speaker 4: of us will be in on that one. But you

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Speaker 4: have another one for us.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I took Barcelona this morning.

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Speaker 4: You know.

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Speaker 3: I think that group is really fascinating, of course because

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Speaker 3: of intern, because of Barson, because of Bayern, and how

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Speaker 3: that plays out and who gets first will have a

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Speaker 3: major impact on the seating, right because of how the

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Speaker 3: draw work. So if you win your group, you get

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Speaker 3: a much easier most likely get a much easier and

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Speaker 3: this year especially you get a much easier you know,

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Speaker 3: Round of sixteen match, and that helps your odds. But

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Speaker 3: the reality is, you know, BJ mentioned the additions in house.

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Speaker 3: Barsa has a lot of interesting pieces. Between Pedri, Gavi

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Speaker 3: and Fati, I think they have three extremely young, encouraging

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Speaker 3: profile midfielders who all could take steps forward this season.

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Speaker 3: Pedri obviously we know what he can do. He had

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Speaker 3: that incredible Euros. He looked a little bit and he

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Speaker 3: had a couple of injury issues last year. He wasn't

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Speaker 3: at his best and I think a lot of that

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Speaker 3: was fixed your pile up.

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Speaker 2: Well, this year he's going.

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Speaker 3: To get a full off season and you know, by

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Speaker 3: the spring post World Cup break, I think, you know,

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Speaker 3: he could be back to his normal self. Fati missed

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Speaker 3: so much time his abit, you know, he adds so

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Speaker 3: much to this attack. And Osmani denballe is still hit

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Speaker 3: the club and looked excellent against Sociadad and therefore one win.

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Speaker 2: And he is another guy who is kind of.

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Speaker 3: The post hype breakout candidate, right he you know, a

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Speaker 3: lot of people claimed he was the third best player

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Speaker 3: in the world a few years ago. He had so

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Speaker 3: many injury issues. But when he's on the pitch, if

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Speaker 3: he's healthy, I mean, he's he's an incredible winger. So

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Speaker 3: I think there's a lot of pieces on this Barsa

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Speaker 3: team that have that give them an incredibly high ceiling

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Speaker 3: and a pretty low floor just because of the defensive

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Speaker 3: woes that kind of still exist, and then the chobby

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Speaker 3: system has not necessarily covered those. But I think there's

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Speaker 3: a good chance to uh, you know, you're getting to

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Speaker 3: floor on Barsa here. I don't think you're getting to

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Speaker 3: floor on Byron. But I'm gonna hope that they come

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Speaker 3: in second in the group and then I'm gonna buy

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Speaker 3: Byron because I do think they've looked incredibly impressive in

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Speaker 3: the Bundesliga. Whatever you make of their dominance of a

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Speaker 3: weaker league, so be it. But they still made additions

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Speaker 3: with Musiala now you know, as their potential breakout superstar.

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Speaker 3: I think he's going to be one mane replacing Lewandowski.

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Speaker 3: Production they did upgrade the defense, even though it wasn't

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Speaker 3: evident in the glade Bach match with the Oopen mccona mistake.

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Speaker 3: But I do think Byron still has an ability to

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Speaker 3: get up through the tier above PSG, above Liverpool. I

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Speaker 3: don't think they're there right now, but I do think that,

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Speaker 3: you know, come second in the group, we get maybe

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Speaker 3: like in ten to one, I'm going to be interested.

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Speaker 3: So that's my other team that I'm looking to buy

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Speaker 3: in again after we were selling them so hard, you know,

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Speaker 3: the last couple of years with with you know, the

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Speaker 3: famous Submarines.

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Speaker 2: But yes, I'm looking.

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Speaker 3: To buy some Byron as well, so targeting that group.

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Speaker 3: So now naturally inter will win it.

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Speaker 4: Because of that. All right, let's look at some long

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Speaker 4: shots we like. Last year we talked about via Real.

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Speaker 4: They got painfully close, and that's what you're looking at here.

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Speaker 4: You're looking at a bet on a team to do that,

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Speaker 4: because long shots don't win the Champions League, but they

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Speaker 4: can come close. Last five seasons, we've seen Leon, Leipsig,

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Speaker 4: i Ax, Spurs, via Real and Roma all you know,

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Speaker 4: big prices at varying, Atalanta as well, had Alanta, right, yeah.

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Speaker 2: Make make five minutes from the semis deep runs.

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Speaker 4: Yeah well those were just semi finalists, a lot that

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Speaker 4: didn't get through there. But these teams come close, but

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Speaker 4: they just never win it.

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Speaker 3: For me, I like.

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Speaker 4: Leipzig at one hundred to one. Their group is manageable.

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Speaker 4: Real Madrid Celtic Shock Dart minus four fifty to just

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Speaker 4: get through. They overperformed offensively last year, but the defense

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Speaker 4: got a lot better after Jesse Marsh left under Domenico Tedesco.

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Speaker 4: Sixteen point six expected goals and fifteen goals allowed in

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Speaker 4: their last seventeen matches went twelve, four and four. Windrow

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Speaker 4: lost to end the season with a robust plus twenty

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Speaker 4: eight goal differential and a basically plus twenty expected goal

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Speaker 4: differential in those last twenty matches in Bundesliga. So it's

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Speaker 4: a team that I'm at triple digits. I think you

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Speaker 4: can make an argument between them and Leverkusen as the

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Speaker 4: two value long shots at this section of the board.

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Speaker 4: BJ you're going somewhere else, but I'll probably sprinkle both

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Speaker 4: Leipzig and Leverkusen. But Leipzig I think has the better

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Speaker 4: chance to pay off at at triple digch dots.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna go Napoli at one hundred and fifty

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Speaker 1: to one. I understand they've lost quite a bit during

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Speaker 1: this trans window. They lost Kabali to Chelsea, they lose

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Speaker 1: Fabian Ruiz to PSG, moves on to Galatasaray and Signae.

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Speaker 1: You know is obviously over at MLS with Toronto FC.

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Speaker 1: But this is a team that finished top ten and

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Speaker 1: expected goal diffrenchial per ninety minutes in Europe only allowed

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Speaker 1: point eight four xtually per ninety minutes. So even then,

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Speaker 1: though they lose Kubali, they still keep the rest of

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Speaker 1: their defense and you know they'll take a little bit

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Speaker 1: of a step back, but they're stilln't allow under one

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Speaker 1: expected goal for ninety minutes in Syria. Ah, they also

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Speaker 1: have one of the best strikers in Europe. I mean,

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Speaker 1: Oceman has been awesome. Now for now, yeah, we'll see,

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Speaker 1: if we'll see before the trans window closes. You know,

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Speaker 1: if if somehow he moves for one hundred million do

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Speaker 1: in another club, then just you know, cancel this bet.

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Speaker 1: But you know, zero point six at a non penalty

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Speaker 1: XG scoring rate per ninety minutes, that's ninety five percentile

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Speaker 1: in Europe. You also look what they added in the midfield.

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Speaker 1: They're bringing Guisa from Fulham, who I'm very high on,

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Speaker 1: really nice defensive midfielder to make up for what Ruiz

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Speaker 1: brought to them. They also add in don'ble from Tottenham,

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Speaker 1: who who's you know, hopefully we'll have a resurgence for

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Speaker 1: his career. And they aren't a difficult group. I mean Liverpool,

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Speaker 1: IAX and Ranger is a pretty tough group. It's an

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Speaker 1: underrated tough group. But if they can get through that

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Speaker 1: and you can get them into the round of sixteen

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Speaker 1: with this defense and a really really good striker, I

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Speaker 1: mean they they could potentially make some noise and get

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Speaker 1: if they get a favorable draw, it can happen. So

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Speaker 1: when we saw last year with iax IX, you know,

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Speaker 1: it's not similar to this group, but you know they

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Speaker 1: got into the round of sixteen and they got a

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Speaker 1: good draw and they just didn't capitalize on it. So

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Speaker 1: you know, Napoli with this type of defense at one

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Speaker 1: hundred and fifty to one, you know they've already looked

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Speaker 1: amazing through three matches in Syria. So I do like

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Speaker 1: Napoli at one hundred and fifty to one as a

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Speaker 1: potential long shot.

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Speaker 4: All right, let's start with NAPOLIESE Group group at Liverpool

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Speaker 4: minus three fifty odds on to win it, IX plus

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Speaker 4: six fifty to win it, Napoli plus six fifty Rangers

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Speaker 4: fourteen to one at bet three sixty five to win

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Speaker 4: Group A. I think it sets up like you said,

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Speaker 4: interesting it It looks like a three horse race for

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Speaker 4: that second spot between IX, Napoli and Rangers. The way

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Speaker 4: I'm playing this one is I'm just kind of gonna

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Speaker 4: fade i X. I think that they could be in

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Speaker 4: a little bit of trouble here with all the turnover

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Speaker 4: that just lost Anthony to not to Bundo that the

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Speaker 4: soccer player Anthony to to Manchester United. So it's that's

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Speaker 4: just the way I'm been played. I like Napoli, like

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Speaker 4: you said, the defense is stellar. Rangers could be a

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Speaker 4: tough one, like a tough nut to crack. Their first

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Speaker 4: trip to the group stages of the Champions LEAGUEES in

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Speaker 4: over a decade, so you know, Eyebrocks will be rocking.

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Speaker 4: So this is a group that I think you just

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Speaker 4: target a couple of teams. I think we all know

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Speaker 4: Liverpool will be inflated and I think i X might

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Speaker 4: be a little inflated off of their Champions League success

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Speaker 4: over the past couple of seasons. Anthony, what do you

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Speaker 4: have for groupe?

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Speaker 3: This is the most balanced group top to bottom. I

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Speaker 3: think very clearly if you look at the you know

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Speaker 3: the strength ratings of each of these four teams. I

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Speaker 3: don't love a ton from a betting perspective to be

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Speaker 3: completely honest, I think, you know, the bet that BJ

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Speaker 3: is gonna make is an interesting one. But Rangers were

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Speaker 3: a little bit fortunate last year in their Europa League run.

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Speaker 3: I mean, if we, you know, we can go down

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Speaker 3: the list of the of the expected goals from not

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Speaker 3: just necessarily the group stage, but the knockout round, and

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Speaker 3: they ran really well to get to where they did.

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Speaker 3: And I think that there's a bunch of defensive regression

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Speaker 3: coming for Rangers as they face these better teams. With

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Speaker 3: that being said, I think you can make a case

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Speaker 3: that IAX and Napoli are going to be worse than

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Speaker 3: they were last year. And Napoli, of course, is going

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Speaker 3: to very much hinge on Victor ocimn. The latest rumor

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Speaker 3: is that they might be taking on Ronaldo and selling

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Speaker 3: OSSI men, if so, I'd like to sell all the

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Speaker 3: Napoli stock that there is.

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Speaker 2: But I Ax too.

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Speaker 3: I mean, they got raided, they lost Holaire, they lost Antony,

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Speaker 3: they lose lisan here Martinez. They kind of go through

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Speaker 3: these cycles, right, and every third year maybe is when

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Speaker 3: IX has a really good squad of players, and it

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Speaker 3: feels like this is last year was their moment and

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Speaker 3: they missed their moment with that you brutal loss to Benficas.

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Speaker 2: So I don't love a ton in this group.

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Speaker 3: I'm and ultimately saying away, I just can't really get

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Speaker 3: around to betting any of those three teams, even though

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Speaker 3: I think generally they're they're pretty competitive, the scrip should

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Speaker 3: be pretty competitive.

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Speaker 2: After Liverpool wins going away.

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Speaker 4: BJ, You you do think that this is a fun

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Speaker 4: one to bet.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean this is going to kind of be

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Speaker 1: a theme throughout most of these Champions League groups, is

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Speaker 1: that you know they're not We've talked about this internally,

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Speaker 1: but they're not as interesting as they were last year. Like,

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Speaker 1: we don't have a situation like City and PSG in

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Speaker 1: the same group, or potentially an i AX type situation.

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Speaker 1: So if you want a team that you know is

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Speaker 1: potentially at the bottom of the group that fits the

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Speaker 1: profile someon of to what Anthony's saying, Rangers fits this profile.

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Speaker 1: I mean, do we forget they lost on penalties in

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Speaker 1: the Europa League Final to Frankfurt, not even you know,

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Speaker 1: three or four months ago. You know, throughout that Europa

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Speaker 1: League run, they took down two German teams, they took

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Speaker 1: down Dortmund, they took down RB Leipzig. Actually was you know,

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Speaker 1: it wasn't too drastic. You know, they obviously were negative

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Speaker 1: for both of those, but it wasn't like they just

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Speaker 1: got completely run over by those two teams. And listen,

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Speaker 1: they they did lose Calvin Bassi to IAX, funny enough

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Speaker 1: because he's gonna have to play them, and Rebo to Southampton,

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Speaker 1: but their core players like Tavin Yeh Kent and Morelos

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Speaker 1: are still in the squad. This is still a team now.

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Speaker 1: They've experienced in Europe, having that you know, run in

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Speaker 1: the Europa League, so transfer transit. It's not like it's

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Speaker 1: a Macaba haafia who's never played in the Champions League

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Speaker 1: before and has to come in and say, oh my gosh,

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Speaker 1: what do we do? Like Rangers has experience now playing

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Speaker 1: against these top you know, at least you know, big

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Speaker 1: five league squads, and you already mentioned with IAX. I mean, yeah,

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Speaker 1: they got rated. You know, the four guys they lost

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Speaker 1: are big, big time losses. And I think we're still

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Speaker 1: seeing a price a little inflated on them. I mean

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Speaker 1: they're they're minus two forty at home against Rangers in

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Speaker 1: the first match. I think that's I think that's a

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Speaker 1: little high given what i AX has lost. I mean,

337
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Speaker 1: but even before the four losses from from i AX,

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Speaker 1: you know the four main players, I would have had

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Speaker 1: i AX at minus one forty. Now you take those

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Speaker 1: four guys away, I'm at i AX around plus one

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Speaker 1: oh five. So when they go play at the eyebroxs,

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Speaker 1: I mean, I'm probably gonna have Rangers as a slight

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Speaker 1: favorite over them. So you know, I just mentioned happily

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Speaker 1: as a long shot. That's more of a just a

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Speaker 1: longer thing. I don't really want to play them at

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Speaker 1: plus one twenty in this group, Like, that's not a

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Speaker 1: good price, good enough price for me to play. So

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna take a shot on Rangers at four to one.

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Speaker 1: I mean, who cares about Liverpool? They'll win this group,

350
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Speaker 1: who cares? I think Rangers is definitely live, having that

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Speaker 1: Europa League experience last year and having a squad that

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Speaker 1: truly believes in themselves as an underdog, and having you know,

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Speaker 1: going to the Europa League finals. So I like Rangers

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Speaker 1: at four to one to qualify.

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Speaker 4: Group B is headlined by at LETTI already talked about

356
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Speaker 4: how bj and I like them as an outright they

357
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Speaker 4: are the smallest favorite to win a group there minus

358
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Speaker 4: one ten still odds on Porto behind them plus three hundred,

359
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Speaker 4: Leverkusen also three to one, and Througe twelve to one.

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Speaker 4: I think I'm passing here from a group any perspective,

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Speaker 4: but I will say that it's not a bad one

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Speaker 4: to target a long shot price to win the group

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Speaker 4: on Bruges maybe, or Leverkusen or Porta, whoever you want,

364
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Speaker 4: because it does seem like this is the only one

365
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Speaker 4: where the favorite is truly vulnerable to not win it.

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Speaker 4: I still think Letty gets through, but last year, I

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Speaker 4: mean it was it was all Chock that won their groups.

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Speaker 4: You've a lil in what was that that crazy wide

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Speaker 4: open group United Bayern, Madrid, I ex Liverpool City. So

370
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Speaker 4: usually don't really see too many underdogs take down the

371
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Speaker 4: group they do advance. We'll talk about that a little bit.

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Speaker 4: I like Leverkusen as a long shot outright, but that's

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Speaker 4: about it for for me for this group, and so

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Speaker 4: between them and at Letty, I'll just be investing on

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Speaker 4: them to do to do the damn thing, Anthony, anything

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Speaker 4: for you here.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, it's it's hard for me to decide

378
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Speaker 3: whether I want to take Porto or Leverkusen as my

379
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Speaker 3: team to bet on to steal the group from Atleti.

380
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Speaker 3: I mean Adleti and Porto were in the same group

381
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Speaker 3: last year. They played six matches. A Letti had a

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Speaker 3: minus point four expected goal differential. Porto had a minus

383
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Speaker 3: point six expected gold differential. It came down to the

384
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Speaker 3: final day. Porto had a It was a weird game.

385
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Speaker 3: Not much happened in the first half, then Porto got

386
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Speaker 3: a red card, and then it went into in haywire

387
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Speaker 3: and and let you ran away with it in the

388
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Speaker 3: second half. But overall, you know, I thought Porto were

389
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Speaker 3: the second best team on on on the merits of

390
00:18:07,240 --> 00:18:10,560
Speaker 3: that entire group, and I'm not sure that the gap

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Speaker 3: is as big as the market indicates on those two teams.

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Speaker 3: So I would look to play Porto, and I also

393
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Speaker 3: like Leverkusen. I think their style. It's a very much

394
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Speaker 3: a matchup of contrasting styles when you look at how

395
00:18:21,359 --> 00:18:23,320
Speaker 3: Porto plays and how I'd let you plays and how

396
00:18:23,600 --> 00:18:26,680
Speaker 3: Leverkusin is going to set up. But again, I think

397
00:18:26,760 --> 00:18:29,120
Speaker 3: Leverkusen has made improvements and.

398
00:18:28,920 --> 00:18:30,400
Speaker 2: It hasn't shown yet in the Bundesliga.

399
00:18:30,440 --> 00:18:32,760
Speaker 3: They're one in three and four matches and they're you know,

400
00:18:32,760 --> 00:18:36,560
Speaker 3: they're they've they've definitely struggled, but Florian Vertz will be

401
00:18:36,640 --> 00:18:40,480
Speaker 3: back shortly soon soon. At least, I do think that

402
00:18:40,520 --> 00:18:43,159
Speaker 3: they have a decent chance to win this group. You

403
00:18:43,200 --> 00:18:45,800
Speaker 3: look at some of their underlying numbers from last year

404
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Speaker 3: in the Europa League. They were pretty good. So I'm

405
00:18:50,000 --> 00:18:54,399
Speaker 3: buying Leverkusen and I'm tempted to also buy Porto and

406
00:18:54,440 --> 00:18:56,720
Speaker 3: just play both, but I don't love that, so I'm

407
00:18:56,720 --> 00:18:59,720
Speaker 3: going to take Leverkusen as my official pick in this

408
00:18:59,760 --> 00:19:02,040
Speaker 3: group to win it at plus three fifth BJ.

409
00:19:02,240 --> 00:19:05,240
Speaker 4: You are also targeting one of those two teams here.

410
00:19:05,119 --> 00:19:06,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like Porto at three to one. I mean,

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00:19:06,720 --> 00:19:08,919
Speaker 1: Anthony already mentioned it. You know, the last season they

412
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Speaker 1: were in the same group and they're expected goldiferential was

413
00:19:11,119 --> 00:19:14,000
Speaker 1: pretty much the same and when they met, essentially over

414
00:19:14,000 --> 00:19:16,760
Speaker 1: the two meetings, I mean, at Letty barely beat them

415
00:19:16,760 --> 00:19:19,200
Speaker 1: on XG it was two point eight to two point six.

416
00:19:20,080 --> 00:19:22,480
Speaker 1: Now Porto has lost a couple guys, you know, the

417
00:19:22,520 --> 00:19:26,320
Speaker 1: lost Bettina and Fabrio Vieira in the midfield, but they

418
00:19:26,320 --> 00:19:28,200
Speaker 1: did you know, they still have all of their attacking

419
00:19:28,200 --> 00:19:30,760
Speaker 1: options they had last year, Pepe still there. They brought

420
00:19:30,760 --> 00:19:34,919
Speaker 1: in David Carmo over from Braga to make up for

421
00:19:35,040 --> 00:19:39,720
Speaker 1: Chancello and Bemba leaving from Marseille. And while I'm with you,

422
00:19:39,760 --> 00:19:42,879
Speaker 1: Michael that I like Athletico as potential outright to win

423
00:19:42,920 --> 00:19:44,840
Speaker 1: the Champions League because of how difficult they are to

424
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Speaker 1: deal within a knockout stage. Over the last two group stages,

425
00:19:49,280 --> 00:19:51,680
Speaker 1: they have a minus point one expected goldiffronchial. The year

426
00:19:51,680 --> 00:19:55,080
Speaker 1: before that they were with Bayern Salzburg and Locomotive Moscow

427
00:19:55,240 --> 00:19:56,639
Speaker 1: like that was an easy group, and then last year

428
00:19:56,640 --> 00:19:59,040
Speaker 1: they obviously got paired in a pretty difficult group with Liverpool,

429
00:19:59,080 --> 00:20:02,080
Speaker 1: A Simlon and Porto. But Porto, you know, they won

430
00:20:02,119 --> 00:20:04,639
Speaker 1: the Portuguese League last year with a plus one point

431
00:20:04,680 --> 00:20:07,879
Speaker 1: six to two expected goal differential per ninety minutes. You know,

432
00:20:07,920 --> 00:20:11,080
Speaker 1: by UEFA coefficients, Portugal is the sixth best league in

433
00:20:11,119 --> 00:20:15,520
Speaker 1: the world. And the gap between them and Germany, if

434
00:20:15,520 --> 00:20:19,399
Speaker 1: we're comparing them to Leverkusen, it's actually closer than the

435
00:20:19,400 --> 00:20:24,040
Speaker 1: gap between Germany and the Premier League. So you have Leverkusen,

436
00:20:24,080 --> 00:20:26,000
Speaker 1: who we you know, faded quite a bit last year.

437
00:20:26,040 --> 00:20:28,359
Speaker 1: They were only at a point five to nine actually

438
00:20:28,359 --> 00:20:31,280
Speaker 1: differential per ninety minutes. So you have Porto who's essentially

439
00:20:31,440 --> 00:20:34,800
Speaker 1: a goal better in a league that I wouldn't I

440
00:20:34,840 --> 00:20:36,920
Speaker 1: in my projections, I wouldn't give them a full goal

441
00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:40,720
Speaker 1: as the difference between the German and Portuguese leagues. And

442
00:20:41,040 --> 00:20:43,080
Speaker 1: I mean it makes sense, right because you know how

443
00:20:43,080 --> 00:20:45,640
Speaker 1: many teams from Portugal made the Round of sixteen last

444
00:20:45,720 --> 00:20:49,199
Speaker 1: year too, how many minutes from Germany one. So you

445
00:20:49,240 --> 00:20:50,920
Speaker 1: know it's you can you can say what you will,

446
00:20:50,960 --> 00:20:53,239
Speaker 1: But yeah, I love portoitt three to one. I think

447
00:20:53,280 --> 00:20:56,359
Speaker 1: Athleti's very vulnerable to not win this group. This is

448
00:20:56,400 --> 00:20:58,960
Speaker 1: an incredible defensive team. You know, they're they're a bear

449
00:20:59,040 --> 00:21:01,639
Speaker 1: to deal with, only twenty one unexpected goals allowed in

450
00:21:01,760 --> 00:21:05,320
Speaker 1: thirty four matches domestically last season. So I like Portoa

451
00:21:05,400 --> 00:21:05,840
Speaker 1: three to one.

452
00:21:05,920 --> 00:21:08,359
Speaker 4: All right, let's talk quickly about Groups C, because we

453
00:21:08,440 --> 00:21:11,080
Speaker 4: talked a lot about Byron and Barsia at the top

454
00:21:11,119 --> 00:21:13,439
Speaker 4: of the show. Byron is minus one sixty three to

455
00:21:13,440 --> 00:21:15,880
Speaker 4: win the group. Barcelona plus one seventy five enter eight

456
00:21:15,920 --> 00:21:19,600
Speaker 4: to one. Victoria Pleasant out of Czech Republic, they are

457
00:21:19,720 --> 00:21:21,440
Speaker 4: one hundred to one to win the group. A cool

458
00:21:21,560 --> 00:21:24,639
Speaker 4: note about them is the dugouts at their stadium are

459
00:21:24,680 --> 00:21:27,720
Speaker 4: shaped like beer cans, so that'll be a nice aesthetic

460
00:21:27,920 --> 00:21:31,200
Speaker 4: when we watch them get romped by Byron Barson inter

461
00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:35,119
Speaker 4: I think Barcelona drew. If you're going to bet Barcelona

462
00:21:35,160 --> 00:21:36,840
Speaker 4: to win the group, you probably should do it now

463
00:21:36,840 --> 00:21:43,439
Speaker 4: because they have Victoria Pleasant first, so they're plus one

464
00:21:43,480 --> 00:21:46,680
Speaker 4: seventy five. Anthony, you've talked about how you're buying Barcelona

465
00:21:46,680 --> 00:21:49,560
Speaker 4: a big picture, just real quick sum up, while you

466
00:21:49,600 --> 00:21:51,800
Speaker 4: like them to win the group at this prist as well.

467
00:21:51,960 --> 00:21:53,800
Speaker 3: I mean, yeah, I just talked about Byron right, and

468
00:21:54,600 --> 00:21:56,639
Speaker 3: I think the gap is not that big between these

469
00:21:56,640 --> 00:21:59,679
Speaker 3: two teams. And that's the main reason why I'm not

470
00:21:59,720 --> 00:22:01,280
Speaker 3: gonna by Bayern at eighty to one to win the

471
00:22:01,359 --> 00:22:04,280
Speaker 3: Champions League. But if they drift or if they finished second,

472
00:22:04,280 --> 00:22:06,520
Speaker 3: which is what the ideal scenario for me here is

473
00:22:06,520 --> 00:22:08,600
Speaker 3: that Barsa is going to win this group, that makes

474
00:22:08,600 --> 00:22:10,000
Speaker 3: my twenty to one really good and then I'm going

475
00:22:10,040 --> 00:22:11,639
Speaker 3: to be able to get a better number on Byron

476
00:22:11,680 --> 00:22:14,480
Speaker 3: to win the Champions League as the second place team.

477
00:22:15,119 --> 00:22:17,119
Speaker 3: With that being said, I just don't think there's a

478
00:22:17,200 --> 00:22:19,040
Speaker 3: huge gap between these two teams. You go back, and

479
00:22:19,080 --> 00:22:21,479
Speaker 3: you know BJ will tell you as well. You know,

480
00:22:21,640 --> 00:22:24,480
Speaker 3: Spain is much better than Germany, and Germany I think

481
00:22:24,560 --> 00:22:26,240
Speaker 3: is trending in the wrong direction. I mean, I think

482
00:22:26,240 --> 00:22:28,560
Speaker 3: all of the non England leagues are kind of getting

483
00:22:28,600 --> 00:22:30,920
Speaker 3: more mushed together just because of how the money has

484
00:22:31,200 --> 00:22:34,040
Speaker 3: shifted across and I think that makes the EPL generally

485
00:22:34,119 --> 00:22:35,320
Speaker 3: undervalued in Europe.

486
00:22:35,359 --> 00:22:36,800
Speaker 2: But I'm not sure how.

487
00:22:36,840 --> 00:22:38,600
Speaker 3: Undervalued they are if you look at Europa League Gods

488
00:22:38,640 --> 00:22:42,280
Speaker 3: as well with Arsenal United. That being said, Barsa have

489
00:22:42,680 --> 00:22:44,040
Speaker 3: made a ton of improvements. I don't need to go

490
00:22:44,080 --> 00:22:46,800
Speaker 3: into it again, but I think that these two teams

491
00:22:46,840 --> 00:22:48,520
Speaker 3: are pretty comparable and so I'm going to get plus

492
00:22:48,520 --> 00:22:52,119
Speaker 3: one seventy. The thing about this is that Inter is

493
00:22:52,240 --> 00:22:54,679
Speaker 3: a difficult side. And look, they gave Real Madrid a

494
00:22:54,680 --> 00:22:57,679
Speaker 3: ton of problems last year, so I think, you know,

495
00:22:57,720 --> 00:22:59,200
Speaker 3: even though they didn't get a result in near of

496
00:22:59,240 --> 00:23:02,720
Speaker 3: those games, they were better across six matches then Real

497
00:23:02,800 --> 00:23:05,119
Speaker 3: Madrid was. The question is another year away from Kante,

498
00:23:05,720 --> 00:23:09,720
Speaker 3: they do lose Parisitch, they bring in Lucaku. I'm not

499
00:23:10,440 --> 00:23:12,399
Speaker 3: sure what to make of Inter at the moment, actually,

500
00:23:12,480 --> 00:23:15,600
Speaker 3: and I know I liked them coming into the season.

501
00:23:15,600 --> 00:23:17,679
Speaker 3: I still think they're the best team in Italy, but

502
00:23:17,960 --> 00:23:21,919
Speaker 3: this is the worst Siria like ever in a recent

503
00:23:21,960 --> 00:23:25,040
Speaker 3: recent memory, and so I'm kind of skeptical on them

504
00:23:25,440 --> 00:23:27,960
Speaker 3: competing with Barsa and buying at the top of the group.

505
00:23:28,000 --> 00:23:29,560
Speaker 2: And we'll see.

506
00:23:29,960 --> 00:23:31,359
Speaker 3: With that being said, i think I'm going to be

507
00:23:31,400 --> 00:23:34,520
Speaker 3: on Inter in the first game, so we will see.

508
00:23:34,760 --> 00:23:37,400
Speaker 1: There's a case for Inter, not necessarily maybe to qualify,

509
00:23:37,440 --> 00:23:39,200
Speaker 1: but maybe to win this group. I mean, if you

510
00:23:39,440 --> 00:23:41,680
Speaker 1: just purely looking at numbers, and you know, obviously Syria

511
00:23:41,760 --> 00:23:44,240
Speaker 1: eyes down, but you know, so was the Bundesliga. You know,

512
00:23:44,240 --> 00:23:47,280
Speaker 1: they were one point one one actually differential per ninety minutes,

513
00:23:47,280 --> 00:23:50,280
Speaker 1: which was fourth in Europe, and they had Lucaku, so

514
00:23:50,560 --> 00:23:52,720
Speaker 1: you would think that, okay, they're actually maybe an improv

515
00:23:52,800 --> 00:23:54,640
Speaker 1: And even if you look at their group with Real

516
00:23:54,640 --> 00:23:56,919
Speaker 1: Madrid last year, I mean, they had a better expected

517
00:23:56,960 --> 00:23:58,639
Speaker 1: goal differential in the group than Real Madrid. They were

518
00:23:58,680 --> 00:24:01,159
Speaker 1: plus seven point eight, realm Drid plus five point nine,

519
00:24:01,240 --> 00:24:03,600
Speaker 1: and they beat Real Madrid on xt G combined over

520
00:24:03,600 --> 00:24:06,240
Speaker 1: the two meetings three point two to two. So and

521
00:24:06,240 --> 00:24:07,720
Speaker 1: then you know, go to the round of sixteen, you know,

522
00:24:07,720 --> 00:24:10,040
Speaker 1: they obviously went down to Liverpool in the first leg.

523
00:24:10,080 --> 00:24:13,119
Speaker 1: They gave him a huge scare at anfield, So like

524
00:24:13,160 --> 00:24:14,359
Speaker 1: there is a case for inter.

525
00:24:14,320 --> 00:24:17,080
Speaker 2: Yours game was even two. Yeah, it wasn't. There was

526
00:24:17,119 --> 00:24:18,040
Speaker 2: not much in that game.

527
00:24:18,400 --> 00:24:21,159
Speaker 3: I'm going to probably be betting inter pot amount in

528
00:24:21,240 --> 00:24:23,280
Speaker 3: this group, but in terms of actually winning it, I

529
00:24:23,320 --> 00:24:25,640
Speaker 3: will be. I will be betting Barsa, which I guess

530
00:24:25,720 --> 00:24:28,560
Speaker 3: is kind of weird to say, but I ultimately do

531
00:24:28,640 --> 00:24:31,240
Speaker 3: think that this comes down to Biron and Barsa. And

532
00:24:31,320 --> 00:24:33,760
Speaker 3: even though pron has dominated the recent history of the meetings,

533
00:24:34,480 --> 00:24:37,840
Speaker 3: Barcelona and has has improved enough to close the gap.

534
00:24:38,080 --> 00:24:42,000
Speaker 2: And for that reason, I will be taking some Barsa right.

535
00:24:42,080 --> 00:24:44,000
Speaker 1: And so you know, with with Enter their minus one

536
00:24:44,000 --> 00:24:46,720
Speaker 1: tend to qualify. There's no way, I'm no way number,

537
00:24:46,920 --> 00:24:49,040
Speaker 1: no chance I'm betting that number. You know, eight to

538
00:24:49,040 --> 00:24:51,000
Speaker 1: one gets a little interesting to win the group. Yeah,

539
00:24:51,000 --> 00:24:52,359
Speaker 1: I agree with you. I think Intro will be more

540
00:24:52,400 --> 00:24:54,560
Speaker 1: of a team that will be betting on an individual

541
00:24:54,560 --> 00:24:56,160
Speaker 1: match basis throughout the group stage.

542
00:24:56,520 --> 00:24:59,040
Speaker 4: Group D then Spurs minus two hundred to win it

543
00:24:59,080 --> 00:25:02,960
Speaker 4: at bet three six five Frankfurt They're wonderful. Europa League

544
00:25:03,200 --> 00:25:07,520
Speaker 4: triumph plus five fifty Marseille plus fly fifty Sporting out

545
00:25:07,520 --> 00:25:10,000
Speaker 4: of Portugal. They're seven to one. Are They're interesting to

546
00:25:10,040 --> 00:25:14,199
Speaker 4: me just from a stylistic standpoint, twenty three goals against

547
00:25:14,280 --> 00:25:17,480
Speaker 4: in Portugal last season, which is just absurd.

548
00:25:17,280 --> 00:25:20,199
Speaker 1: Off of twenty two expected too. Yeah, it's it's just

549
00:25:20,840 --> 00:25:22,000
Speaker 1: I love this group so much.

550
00:25:22,119 --> 00:25:23,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, this is a funny one.

551
00:25:23,119 --> 00:25:23,560
Speaker 1: I love this.

552
00:25:23,560 --> 00:25:25,600
Speaker 2: I mean, you're as ast fan I love this group.

553
00:25:25,640 --> 00:25:27,000
Speaker 4: It's yeah, it's it's it's.

554
00:25:26,920 --> 00:25:27,840
Speaker 2: I'm laying the chalk here.

555
00:25:27,880 --> 00:25:29,760
Speaker 1: Who wants to talk about top in this group? Honestly,

556
00:25:29,800 --> 00:25:31,040
Speaker 1: I'm laying the chalk so much more.

557
00:25:32,480 --> 00:25:35,280
Speaker 3: I think is the best group Spurs could have possibly imagined.

558
00:25:35,320 --> 00:25:37,680
Speaker 3: I mean, obviously, like Yees got, they could have got

559
00:25:38,000 --> 00:25:41,800
Speaker 3: a Makubie Heifa or you know, somebody else at the

560
00:25:41,800 --> 00:25:44,600
Speaker 3: bottom of the table, Victoria Pleasant instead of Marseille. Sure,

561
00:25:44,920 --> 00:25:47,400
Speaker 3: but you know, we've talked about Marseille top of league

562
00:25:47,440 --> 00:25:49,600
Speaker 3: gone by the way after four matches. We've talked about

563
00:25:49,600 --> 00:25:51,280
Speaker 3: Marseille enough on this show that people know that we

564
00:25:51,280 --> 00:25:52,400
Speaker 3: think they're pretty overrated.

565
00:25:52,440 --> 00:25:55,359
Speaker 2: And I still believe that's very much the case. Frankfurt

566
00:25:55,400 --> 00:25:56,440
Speaker 2: has actually regressed.

567
00:25:56,480 --> 00:25:56,639
Speaker 4: You know.

568
00:25:57,080 --> 00:25:59,560
Speaker 3: The argument with Frankfort was at the end of last season,

569
00:25:59,600 --> 00:26:01,679
Speaker 3: they fell hard in the Bundesliga. Was that because they

570
00:26:01,720 --> 00:26:03,800
Speaker 3: were focusing on Europa League or because they're just not

571
00:26:04,240 --> 00:26:07,159
Speaker 3: any good? The early returns from the twenty twenty two

572
00:26:07,200 --> 00:26:09,439
Speaker 3: Bundesliga season suggests that they're just not very good, and

573
00:26:09,680 --> 00:26:11,240
Speaker 3: that's kind of how I felt about them coming into

574
00:26:11,240 --> 00:26:14,159
Speaker 3: the year. They get pasted by Byron, they steal a

575
00:26:14,160 --> 00:26:16,440
Speaker 3: win against Verde Bremen, but they're you know, barely hanging

576
00:26:16,480 --> 00:26:18,760
Speaker 3: on against Colne. You know, there's a lot of red

577
00:26:18,800 --> 00:26:22,560
Speaker 3: flags with this Frankfurt team, and Lisbon is probably the

578
00:26:22,600 --> 00:26:24,679
Speaker 3: second best team in the group. So I agree with

579
00:26:24,760 --> 00:26:28,639
Speaker 3: bj on Lisbon and you guys talked about their defense.

580
00:26:28,680 --> 00:26:29,240
Speaker 4: It is good.

581
00:26:29,480 --> 00:26:31,400
Speaker 3: I don't think it will be as good because it's

582
00:26:31,480 --> 00:26:33,920
Speaker 3: very hard to maintain that level of elite defending and

583
00:26:34,080 --> 00:26:37,480
Speaker 3: you know, regression is inevitable. But I don't think any

584
00:26:37,480 --> 00:26:39,440
Speaker 3: of them hold the candle to Spurs. So I'm laying

585
00:26:39,480 --> 00:26:41,520
Speaker 3: the chalk shopped around. You find them as one sixty

586
00:26:41,880 --> 00:26:44,200
Speaker 3: happy to lay it on Spurs to win this group.

587
00:26:44,600 --> 00:26:47,840
Speaker 4: Anthony is a homer going to lay the juice with

588
00:26:48,000 --> 00:26:52,600
Speaker 4: Spurs here. I like Sporting as a potential long shot

589
00:26:52,640 --> 00:26:55,040
Speaker 4: to win the group seven to one. It's just funny.

590
00:26:55,160 --> 00:26:57,679
Speaker 4: I feel like of the teams in this quartet, the

591
00:26:57,720 --> 00:26:59,880
Speaker 4: team that Spurs will have the most trouble with will

592
00:26:59,880 --> 00:27:02,360
Speaker 4: be Sporting because neither one of them are gonna want

593
00:27:02,359 --> 00:27:04,800
Speaker 4: the ball. So if you look at it like, okay,

594
00:27:05,400 --> 00:27:07,720
Speaker 4: let's say they split their games, or Sporting is able

595
00:27:07,760 --> 00:27:10,520
Speaker 4: to nick a win somehow against them, in Spurs lea

596
00:27:10,560 --> 00:27:12,920
Speaker 4: it does somewhere, I think there's just a path open

597
00:27:13,000 --> 00:27:17,679
Speaker 4: for them because, like you said, Frankfurt vulnerable, Marseille vulnerable.

598
00:27:17,840 --> 00:27:19,520
Speaker 4: So I look at it almost like a two horse

599
00:27:19,600 --> 00:27:22,439
Speaker 4: race between the team that's minus two hundred and then

600
00:27:22,440 --> 00:27:24,000
Speaker 4: the team that's seven to one in a weird way,

601
00:27:24,240 --> 00:27:26,960
Speaker 4: So why wouldn't I take the seven to one BJ?

602
00:27:27,359 --> 00:27:28,120
Speaker 4: What do you think here?

603
00:27:28,240 --> 00:27:31,280
Speaker 1: I can't believe they took They put my two biggest

604
00:27:31,280 --> 00:27:34,159
Speaker 1: fade teams in the same group. I couldn't believe it.

605
00:27:34,680 --> 00:27:37,240
Speaker 1: So yeah, I love Sporting Lisbon at two to one

606
00:27:37,720 --> 00:27:40,639
Speaker 1: to qualify. So, I mean, I've talked about Marseilles so

607
00:27:40,680 --> 00:27:43,680
Speaker 1: many times, but even this so far this season, ten

608
00:27:43,720 --> 00:27:46,360
Speaker 1: goals off four point nine expected, three goals all out

609
00:27:46,359 --> 00:27:48,800
Speaker 1: off of five point nine expected, Like they're doing it again.

610
00:27:49,160 --> 00:27:51,880
Speaker 1: They don't have Saliva, who is their best defender last year,

611
00:27:51,960 --> 00:27:56,399
Speaker 1: so offensively they're going to regress. I mean since the

612
00:27:56,440 --> 00:28:00,480
Speaker 1: start of last season, Marseille is at plus point five

613
00:28:00,720 --> 00:28:04,480
Speaker 1: XG differential per ninety minutes, which isn't bad. But let's

614
00:28:04,480 --> 00:28:06,320
Speaker 1: talk you way for coefficients now how much I love

615
00:28:06,359 --> 00:28:10,960
Speaker 1: talking about those. France is at sixty point one, Portugal

616
00:28:11,160 --> 00:28:14,000
Speaker 1: is at fifty three point four. The gap is not

617
00:28:14,119 --> 00:28:17,920
Speaker 1: that big between these two leagues. And Sporting Lisbon last

618
00:28:17,920 --> 00:28:20,760
Speaker 1: season made the round of sixteen out of a group

619
00:28:20,880 --> 00:28:24,360
Speaker 1: of Dortmund, IAX and Bashitas. Essentially what they did they

620
00:28:24,359 --> 00:28:27,560
Speaker 1: got paceed by i AX, they beat up on Bashitas

621
00:28:27,600 --> 00:28:29,679
Speaker 1: and then against over the two legs against Dortmund they

622
00:28:29,680 --> 00:28:31,720
Speaker 1: actually beat them on XG two point one to two.

623
00:28:32,359 --> 00:28:34,840
Speaker 1: So if we're talking you way for coefficients, then we're

624
00:28:34,840 --> 00:28:37,440
Speaker 1: talking to expect a goal differential per ninety minutes. Well,

625
00:28:37,520 --> 00:28:40,120
Speaker 1: Lisbon was at one point four to one in the

626
00:28:40,160 --> 00:28:43,240
Speaker 1: Portuguese League last season, so and their defense only allowed

627
00:28:43,280 --> 00:28:45,800
Speaker 1: point sixty five XG per ninety minutes. So you have

628
00:28:45,880 --> 00:28:49,880
Speaker 1: a team was essentially almost a goal better per ninety

629
00:28:49,920 --> 00:28:53,240
Speaker 1: minutes than Marseille. With a gap between the two leagues.

630
00:28:53,280 --> 00:28:57,400
Speaker 1: That really isn't that drastic. I mean, I love Sporting

631
00:28:57,440 --> 00:28:59,480
Speaker 1: Lisbon at two to one to qualify from this group

632
00:28:59,520 --> 00:29:02,080
Speaker 1: Anthiary Frankfort. I mean, yeah, they won't the Europa League. Cool,

633
00:29:02,360 --> 00:29:04,280
Speaker 1: but I mean I just don't ely see how you

634
00:29:04,280 --> 00:29:07,200
Speaker 1: can't play Sporting Lisbon to qualify in this group. I mean,

635
00:29:07,240 --> 00:29:09,800
Speaker 1: this is gonna be a really really fun group to

636
00:29:09,840 --> 00:29:14,160
Speaker 1: fade both Marseille and Frankfurt throughout the group stage, so.

637
00:29:14,080 --> 00:29:16,800
Speaker 4: You know how this one goes. Frankfurt first, Marseille second.

638
00:29:16,760 --> 00:29:19,480
Speaker 1: Group TA. I'm not gonna watch any of the Frankfurt

639
00:29:19,480 --> 00:29:20,880
Speaker 1: Marseille matches. I'm just I'm not.

640
00:29:20,920 --> 00:29:22,400
Speaker 2: Oh, I can't wait. I might be better.

641
00:29:23,200 --> 00:29:25,160
Speaker 1: It's gonna make it. It's just gonna make my blood boil.

642
00:29:25,280 --> 00:29:27,760
Speaker 4: All right, let's move to group by Chelsea odds on

643
00:29:27,840 --> 00:29:30,680
Speaker 4: minus three hundred at bet three six five Milan plus

644
00:29:30,760 --> 00:29:34,920
Speaker 4: three thirty three Salzburg ten to one, Dinamo Zagreb ab

645
00:29:34,920 --> 00:29:36,960
Speaker 4: out of Croatia. They're fifty to one to win the group.

646
00:29:37,160 --> 00:29:39,840
Speaker 4: By this point, I think everyone will agree looks like

647
00:29:39,840 --> 00:29:42,520
Speaker 4: a two horse race. But that the Salsburg team, man,

648
00:29:42,560 --> 00:29:44,840
Speaker 4: they are, They're a good Champions League side because they

649
00:29:44,960 --> 00:29:47,800
Speaker 4: kind of just romp through the Austrian Bundesliga and are

650
00:29:47,840 --> 00:29:51,840
Speaker 4: able to focus on the Champions League and not worry

651
00:29:51,840 --> 00:29:54,400
Speaker 4: too much about what's going on in their domestic league.

652
00:29:54,560 --> 00:29:57,080
Speaker 4: This is their fourth appearance in a row. They drew

653
00:29:57,080 --> 00:29:58,960
Speaker 4: with Bayern one one in that first leg in the

654
00:29:59,040 --> 00:30:01,600
Speaker 4: round of sixteen last year, and then they got rolled.

655
00:30:02,880 --> 00:30:06,000
Speaker 4: I do think that they could be a potential dark

656
00:30:06,080 --> 00:30:08,720
Speaker 4: course to get out of the group, but the price

657
00:30:08,800 --> 00:30:11,080
Speaker 4: is not good enough, probably because they just got out

658
00:30:11,080 --> 00:30:14,200
Speaker 4: of the group last year. So this is a pass

659
00:30:14,200 --> 00:30:16,120
Speaker 4: for me. It will be fun to watch teams go

660
00:30:16,200 --> 00:30:18,640
Speaker 4: to Dina Mozagreb again. Those crowds are always a lot

661
00:30:18,640 --> 00:30:21,680
Speaker 4: of fun. Anthony, what do you have here for Group B?

662
00:30:22,040 --> 00:30:23,000
Speaker 2: I've got absolutely nothing.

663
00:30:24,120 --> 00:30:28,320
Speaker 3: I was hoping to fade Chelsea potentially in the Champions League,

664
00:30:28,360 --> 00:30:31,320
Speaker 3: but the group they got was not one where I'm

665
00:30:31,480 --> 00:30:33,120
Speaker 3: really looking to do that. I think I'll be betting

666
00:30:33,160 --> 00:30:36,080
Speaker 3: Salisburg against Chelsea over six matches.

667
00:30:36,120 --> 00:30:38,320
Speaker 2: I don't really see Salsburg getting out of this.

668
00:30:38,760 --> 00:30:41,600
Speaker 3: The one interesting nugget was that Milan was so bad

669
00:30:41,600 --> 00:30:43,239
Speaker 3: in the Champions League last year, and it was kind

670
00:30:43,240 --> 00:30:45,440
Speaker 3: of bizarre because they improved over the course of the

671
00:30:45,480 --> 00:30:49,320
Speaker 3: season in Syria, so part of me wonders was did

672
00:30:49,320 --> 00:30:50,880
Speaker 3: we just catch Milan at a bad time. I mean,

673
00:30:50,880 --> 00:30:54,000
Speaker 3: they played six games in September, October, November. They were

674
00:30:54,040 --> 00:30:56,960
Speaker 3: really bad in those six games, But you know, had

675
00:30:57,000 --> 00:30:59,160
Speaker 3: the Champions League group stage been taking place in January

676
00:30:59,160 --> 00:31:01,480
Speaker 3: for brain March, Milan have been better and Milan has

677
00:31:01,480 --> 00:31:05,320
Speaker 3: made some upgrades. But I really don't love anybody in

678
00:31:05,320 --> 00:31:06,960
Speaker 3: this group. I could see a case for Milan to

679
00:31:07,000 --> 00:31:09,120
Speaker 3: win it. If Milan, you know, they were really bad

680
00:31:09,160 --> 00:31:11,200
Speaker 3: in the Champions League, maybe they'll be unusually good in

681
00:31:11,240 --> 00:31:13,040
Speaker 3: the Champions League this year as a put, you know,

682
00:31:13,160 --> 00:31:16,760
Speaker 3: relative to their actual baseline Syria, and you know, it

683
00:31:16,800 --> 00:31:18,880
Speaker 3: all goes into the same average and what we think

684
00:31:18,920 --> 00:31:21,440
Speaker 3: of it Milan as a team. But overall, I still

685
00:31:21,480 --> 00:31:23,560
Speaker 3: think Chelsea's the best team. I could see the case

686
00:31:23,560 --> 00:31:24,360
Speaker 3: from Milan.

687
00:31:24,600 --> 00:31:25,320
Speaker 4: But I'm passing.

688
00:31:25,480 --> 00:31:28,080
Speaker 3: I don't really love the way this group sets up

689
00:31:28,080 --> 00:31:30,560
Speaker 3: in terms of I think there's a pretty solid hierarchy

690
00:31:31,040 --> 00:31:33,239
Speaker 3: one to four. You if you really want to get

691
00:31:33,280 --> 00:31:35,240
Speaker 3: crazy and take some Salzburg to advance, and you think

692
00:31:35,280 --> 00:31:38,080
Speaker 3: Milan's taking advantage of an overrated Siria and you want

693
00:31:38,080 --> 00:31:40,920
Speaker 3: to fade them in Europe, I could definitely see that argument.

694
00:31:40,920 --> 00:31:44,280
Speaker 3: I mean, go look at Uventus, Acey Milan, everybody, Atlanta

695
00:31:44,320 --> 00:31:46,720
Speaker 3: struggled in Europe last year. Everybody struggled in Europe in

696
00:31:46,760 --> 00:31:49,520
Speaker 3: Italy except Enteria last year. So you know, maybe they're

697
00:31:49,600 --> 00:31:53,520
Speaker 3: just markets not caught up to Siria struggles. But overall

698
00:31:53,560 --> 00:31:54,440
Speaker 3: this is a past for me.

699
00:31:55,040 --> 00:31:57,120
Speaker 4: BJ you do have a bet here.

700
00:31:57,160 --> 00:31:59,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, I am going to take ac Milan at plus

701
00:31:59,680 --> 00:32:01,920
Speaker 1: three five to win the group. So this is more

702
00:32:01,960 --> 00:32:05,160
Speaker 1: of a should Chelsea be minus three hundred in this group?

703
00:32:05,200 --> 00:32:07,240
Speaker 1: That's that's quite high. I know the gap between the

704
00:32:07,440 --> 00:32:10,400
Speaker 1: Premier League and Syria is pretty drastic, but I mean,

705
00:32:10,440 --> 00:32:13,000
Speaker 1: if we're looking at you know, actually differential with per ninety,

706
00:32:13,200 --> 00:32:16,320
Speaker 1: Acey Milan was seventh in Europe at point seventy five.

707
00:32:16,800 --> 00:32:19,600
Speaker 1: Well Chelsea was just barely above them at point eight two.

708
00:32:19,840 --> 00:32:23,320
Speaker 1: So you know, if you're you could make the case

709
00:32:23,440 --> 00:32:25,720
Speaker 1: that the leagues are are pretty drastic, and you know,

710
00:32:26,120 --> 00:32:28,880
Speaker 1: make the case that AC Milan struggled in a difficult

711
00:32:28,880 --> 00:32:31,560
Speaker 1: group in the Champions League last season. But I mean

712
00:32:31,600 --> 00:32:33,960
Speaker 1: we've picked apart Chelsea all a lot on this podcast.

713
00:32:34,000 --> 00:32:35,760
Speaker 1: I mean, they have an aging midfield. We don't know

714
00:32:35,760 --> 00:32:38,280
Speaker 1: if they have a consistent goal scoring threat up top.

715
00:32:38,880 --> 00:32:41,920
Speaker 1: Uh and basically I mean with Chelsea, the way I

716
00:32:42,000 --> 00:32:44,240
Speaker 1: view them is just like they have really good wing backs,

717
00:32:44,480 --> 00:32:46,880
Speaker 1: like and that's you know, everywhere else I'm not like,

718
00:32:46,920 --> 00:32:49,480
Speaker 1: I'm kind of just like, eh, center backs and center backs. Yeah,

719
00:32:49,480 --> 00:32:50,880
Speaker 1: I mean, they're they're kind of aging if you think

720
00:32:50,880 --> 00:32:53,400
Speaker 1: about it. I mean, Kubali it's and Diago Silva are

721
00:32:53,520 --> 00:32:59,280
Speaker 1: kind of aginganams a little bit better. Yeah, it's I

722
00:32:59,280 --> 00:33:02,800
Speaker 1: mean yeah again, it's just there's there's some question marks

723
00:33:03,320 --> 00:33:06,520
Speaker 1: around Chelsea in this group, and I just don't think

724
00:33:06,520 --> 00:33:08,440
Speaker 1: they should be minus three hundred. You know, if you

725
00:33:08,440 --> 00:33:10,560
Speaker 1: look at the other teams, you know, we already mentioned

726
00:33:10,560 --> 00:33:13,360
Speaker 1: it Salzburg, you know, It's it's funny. It's just every

727
00:33:13,440 --> 00:33:15,800
Speaker 1: year they lose two or three of their best players.

728
00:33:15,800 --> 00:33:18,760
Speaker 1: They lose Aronson and they lose a Demi, and they

729
00:33:18,800 --> 00:33:21,400
Speaker 1: just continue to retool with young talents. They have a

730
00:33:21,440 --> 00:33:24,760
Speaker 1: guy be on the lookout, Benjamin Cesco, nineteen year old

731
00:33:24,760 --> 00:33:26,640
Speaker 1: striker who is gonna be going to RB Leipsig next year.

732
00:33:26,680 --> 00:33:30,080
Speaker 1: He's an electric Electric strikers. So youngest team again, the

733
00:33:30,360 --> 00:33:34,920
Speaker 1: youngest team again in the Champions League. Zagreb I mean,

734
00:33:34,960 --> 00:33:37,160
Speaker 1: I have to mention it that they knocked Tottenham out

735
00:33:37,200 --> 00:33:40,000
Speaker 1: of the Europa League two years ago and got out

736
00:33:40,000 --> 00:33:41,240
Speaker 1: of a group with they got out of a group

737
00:33:41,280 --> 00:33:45,760
Speaker 1: with west Ham, Gank and Rapid Vienna last year. So

738
00:33:45,760 --> 00:33:48,560
Speaker 1: they're not a pushover, like there's it's not They're not

739
00:33:49,240 --> 00:33:53,920
Speaker 1: a Victoria Pleasant or Macabai Hafiyas. So yeah, I'm taking

740
00:33:53,960 --> 00:33:56,360
Speaker 1: ac Mona plus three fifty, just purely based on the

741
00:33:56,360 --> 00:33:59,160
Speaker 1: fact that I think Chelsea is way overvalued at minus

742
00:33:59,160 --> 00:33:59,760
Speaker 1: three hundred wins.

743
00:33:59,760 --> 00:34:01,920
Speaker 3: The screw and the argument. You know that kind of

744
00:34:02,400 --> 00:34:03,840
Speaker 3: brings up your point. I mean, I think we all

745
00:34:03,880 --> 00:34:05,600
Speaker 3: hear you Milan is better than Juventus at the moment.

746
00:34:06,000 --> 00:34:06,280
Speaker 1: Yep.

747
00:34:07,040 --> 00:34:09,359
Speaker 3: Last year, Chelsea was like minus two hundred to win

748
00:34:09,440 --> 00:34:12,160
Speaker 3: this group and it was Chelsea, Juve and two duds

749
00:34:12,480 --> 00:34:13,440
Speaker 3: Malmo and.

750
00:34:14,880 --> 00:34:15,960
Speaker 2: The other team was zen It.

751
00:34:16,239 --> 00:34:17,600
Speaker 3: So you know, you're looking at it and you're like,

752
00:34:17,800 --> 00:34:21,640
Speaker 3: sALS Worg's better than Zenate Malmo despite our efforts to

753
00:34:21,680 --> 00:34:25,279
Speaker 3: bet them worth or maybe the worst team in the

754
00:34:25,320 --> 00:34:27,719
Speaker 3: tournament last year, and I don't think Zagreb is that.

755
00:34:28,440 --> 00:34:30,719
Speaker 3: And now you have a Chelsea team against Milan who's

756
00:34:30,719 --> 00:34:34,440
Speaker 3: probably better than Ve especially I mean the market perception

757
00:34:34,480 --> 00:34:35,799
Speaker 3: on Uve was much better last year.

758
00:34:35,840 --> 00:34:37,000
Speaker 2: We all didn't really buy.

759
00:34:36,840 --> 00:34:40,400
Speaker 3: That, but the market likes them even more against the

760
00:34:40,440 --> 00:34:42,759
Speaker 3: better Milan team. I mean, the market loved Uve last year.

761
00:34:42,760 --> 00:34:44,279
Speaker 3: That's why that was why it was where it was.

762
00:34:44,280 --> 00:34:45,719
Speaker 3: They didn't even win the group, they choked it away

763
00:34:45,760 --> 00:34:47,800
Speaker 3: in the final day. But I do think that is

764
00:34:47,840 --> 00:34:50,200
Speaker 3: interesting that now you're getting a ton more market respect

765
00:34:50,440 --> 00:34:53,960
Speaker 3: for Chelsea despite them being I think clearly a step

766
00:34:53,960 --> 00:34:54,640
Speaker 3: back all right.

767
00:34:54,840 --> 00:34:59,280
Speaker 4: Group F Real Madrid, Harlow Ancelotti and the defending champions

768
00:34:59,320 --> 00:35:03,240
Speaker 4: best manager in the world. Gotta love them minus five hundred.

769
00:35:03,280 --> 00:35:05,319
Speaker 4: Real Madrid are at bet three six five to top

770
00:35:05,520 --> 00:35:09,880
Speaker 4: Group F Leipzig five to one, Celtic fourteen to one,

771
00:35:10,280 --> 00:35:13,200
Speaker 4: Shocktar fifty to one. Real Madrid and Shocktar. They just

772
00:35:13,200 --> 00:35:15,960
Speaker 4: can't get away from each other in the Champions League.

773
00:35:16,840 --> 00:35:18,640
Speaker 4: I already made a case for Leipstick at the top

774
00:35:18,640 --> 00:35:21,640
Speaker 4: of the show as a long shot bet one hundred

775
00:35:21,680 --> 00:35:24,040
Speaker 4: and one to win the whole thing. Real Madrid is

776
00:35:24,560 --> 00:35:27,160
Speaker 4: probably a little too high here, but none of these

777
00:35:27,160 --> 00:35:30,640
Speaker 4: prices really interest me. You two, though, are both buying

778
00:35:30,760 --> 00:35:33,520
Speaker 4: another Scottish team. We got two Scottish teams in the

779
00:35:33,560 --> 00:35:36,480
Speaker 4: in the group stage here BJ make the case for Celtic.

780
00:35:36,680 --> 00:35:38,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, I do like Celtic. A you know there are

781
00:35:38,600 --> 00:35:41,960
Speaker 1: plus three thirty three at Bet three sixty five. I mean,

782
00:35:41,960 --> 00:35:43,680
Speaker 1: Real Madrid's heavy favorites to win this group. I have

783
00:35:43,680 --> 00:35:45,640
Speaker 1: no interest in playing them out. I'll probably be looking

784
00:35:45,640 --> 00:35:47,239
Speaker 1: to honestly, I'll probably looking to fade them in the

785
00:35:47,239 --> 00:35:50,799
Speaker 1: first match against Celtic. Celtic back in the Champions League

786
00:35:50,840 --> 00:35:54,120
Speaker 1: for the first time since twenty seventeen. I mean, everybody

787
00:35:54,160 --> 00:35:55,880
Speaker 1: take this to the greatest salt as it is the

788
00:35:55,920 --> 00:35:58,960
Speaker 1: Scottish Premier League. But Celtic two point six x GP

789
00:35:58,960 --> 00:36:01,840
Speaker 1: for ninety four only point nine to five xg allowed.

790
00:36:01,840 --> 00:36:05,239
Speaker 1: That's incredible dominance. Now they are another playing a bunch

791
00:36:05,239 --> 00:36:08,000
Speaker 1: of nobody's. But the biggest thing with Celtic and a

792
00:36:08,040 --> 00:36:10,120
Speaker 1: lot of these teams who are coming into the Champions

793
00:36:10,200 --> 00:36:13,160
Speaker 1: League after having great seasons in leagues outside of the

794
00:36:13,360 --> 00:36:17,279
Speaker 1: Big Five, is can they keep hold of essentially all

795
00:36:17,280 --> 00:36:19,200
Speaker 1: of the pieces that they have. And that's exactly what

796
00:36:19,239 --> 00:36:22,160
Speaker 1: Celtic did. They weren't like Rangers and lost Calvin Bassi.

797
00:36:22,200 --> 00:36:24,360
Speaker 1: They weren't like i Ax and lost for their best players.

798
00:36:24,400 --> 00:36:29,000
Speaker 1: They have the entire core back together, and really this

799
00:36:29,080 --> 00:36:33,160
Speaker 1: is more of a bet against RB Leipzig, who you

800
00:36:33,200 --> 00:36:36,680
Speaker 1: know did overperform quite a bit in the Bundesliga last year.

801
00:36:37,120 --> 00:36:40,719
Speaker 1: They have a lot of question marks defensively. You know,

802
00:36:40,800 --> 00:36:42,839
Speaker 1: they even early on the season, you know, the XG

803
00:36:42,880 --> 00:36:44,480
Speaker 1: doesn't show. You know, the XG they do have a

804
00:36:44,480 --> 00:36:46,759
Speaker 1: plus three point eight through four matches, but they have

805
00:36:46,840 --> 00:36:50,240
Speaker 1: kind of struggled getting results. And just in terms of price,

806
00:36:50,719 --> 00:36:52,680
Speaker 1: this is just a really good price on a very

807
00:36:52,719 --> 00:36:55,680
Speaker 1: good Celtic team that can give both Real Madrid and

808
00:36:55,840 --> 00:36:59,440
Speaker 1: RB Leipsig a lot of problems. So I like Celtic

809
00:36:59,640 --> 00:37:02,600
Speaker 1: at plus three thirty. You know, Celtic Park in Glasgow

810
00:37:02,680 --> 00:37:05,640
Speaker 1: is one of the most electric atmosphere across Europe. You're

811
00:37:05,640 --> 00:37:07,880
Speaker 1: going to see that in the first match against Real Madrid.

812
00:37:08,040 --> 00:37:11,320
Speaker 1: It's a really, really difficult place to play. They're a

813
00:37:11,440 --> 00:37:14,640
Speaker 1: very good possession dominant type of team. We'll see if

814
00:37:14,640 --> 00:37:16,839
Speaker 1: that translates to the Champions League where they're not gonna

815
00:37:16,840 --> 00:37:19,239
Speaker 1: have much of the ball. But you know, we got

816
00:37:19,280 --> 00:37:24,239
Speaker 1: an American Carter Vickers there at Celtic. It's a really

817
00:37:24,280 --> 00:37:28,040
Speaker 1: fun team that is very capable of giving both Arbi

818
00:37:28,120 --> 00:37:30,160
Speaker 1: Leipzig and Real Madrid some problems.

819
00:37:30,400 --> 00:37:33,000
Speaker 4: One thing I think to keep in mind with Celtic

820
00:37:33,120 --> 00:37:38,800
Speaker 4: is a Postagaloo, their Greek manager who also managed Australia.

821
00:37:38,920 --> 00:37:42,120
Speaker 4: In Australia and the national team, it's hot on a

822
00:37:42,160 --> 00:37:44,799
Speaker 4: lot of teams lists. So I think if we do

823
00:37:44,920 --> 00:37:49,120
Speaker 4: see a big club in let's just say Aston Villa

824
00:37:49,239 --> 00:37:52,160
Speaker 4: for example, and they walk away from Stephen Gerrard because

825
00:37:52,160 --> 00:37:55,720
Speaker 4: he's not good, despite Anthony fawning over him at every corner,

826
00:37:56,040 --> 00:37:58,160
Speaker 4: I do think that he there's a chance he doesn't

827
00:37:58,160 --> 00:38:00,800
Speaker 4: finish the season with Celtic in a good way. Anthony,

828
00:38:01,239 --> 00:38:04,440
Speaker 4: you're also going with Bja here, huh.

829
00:38:04,000 --> 00:38:06,799
Speaker 3: Yeah, I am going with Celtic. I mean, let's look

830
00:38:06,800 --> 00:38:11,160
Speaker 3: at five thirty eighth ratings. They have Celtic at forty

831
00:38:11,160 --> 00:38:13,640
Speaker 3: two percent to advance, so you know we're getting a

832
00:38:13,640 --> 00:38:16,080
Speaker 3: plus three fifty on them here. And I think the

833
00:38:16,120 --> 00:38:19,440
Speaker 3: biggest trip wire for Celtic is going to be the

834
00:38:19,480 --> 00:38:23,080
Speaker 3: Shack Tar games, because I think Leipzig should match up

835
00:38:23,120 --> 00:38:26,640
Speaker 3: better with them than Shack than Celtic does. I think Leipzig,

836
00:38:27,280 --> 00:38:29,040
Speaker 3: you know, I don't know what to make of Shaktar.

837
00:38:29,120 --> 00:38:31,360
Speaker 3: I think you know everything that's been going on, and

838
00:38:31,440 --> 00:38:34,360
Speaker 3: it's very difficult to kind of figure out what we

839
00:38:34,400 --> 00:38:36,400
Speaker 3: think of them. They lost a lot of players too.

840
00:38:37,280 --> 00:38:39,840
Speaker 3: Real Madrid have kind of dominated them in the in

841
00:38:39,880 --> 00:38:43,120
Speaker 3: the at least in the results, not necessarily in the performances.

842
00:38:43,920 --> 00:38:48,319
Speaker 3: But I do think they're a tricky underdog team for

843
00:38:48,400 --> 00:38:50,359
Speaker 3: a fourth place in this group because we don't know

844
00:38:50,400 --> 00:38:52,600
Speaker 3: what we're going to get from them and they haven't.

845
00:38:53,040 --> 00:38:55,160
Speaker 3: You know, the Ukrainian season didn't finish last year and

846
00:38:55,160 --> 00:38:59,200
Speaker 3: then there's so much upheaval and an uncertainty. But I

847
00:38:59,239 --> 00:39:02,319
Speaker 3: am buying Celtic and and anytime I see, like Bja mentioned,

848
00:39:02,360 --> 00:39:03,680
Speaker 3: and this was the first thing that I wrote down

849
00:39:03,680 --> 00:39:06,520
Speaker 3: with them, everybody is back. They did not lose many players,

850
00:39:06,560 --> 00:39:09,680
Speaker 3: and I think that's a huge difference compared to Leipzig,

851
00:39:09,719 --> 00:39:12,720
Speaker 3: who didn't lose a ton of players but also didn't

852
00:39:12,719 --> 00:39:15,880
Speaker 3: spend any money. And I thought they were going to

853
00:39:15,960 --> 00:39:17,839
Speaker 3: and they just kind of haven't. So I think that's

854
00:39:17,880 --> 00:39:20,919
Speaker 3: a really interesting They're they're kind of doing the run

855
00:39:20,920 --> 00:39:22,680
Speaker 3: it back, and they were they were fine, they were good,

856
00:39:22,920 --> 00:39:26,040
Speaker 3: but their style is very built towards the Bundesliga, and

857
00:39:26,680 --> 00:39:30,839
Speaker 3: they struggled to cope in Europe last year, So I'm

858
00:39:30,840 --> 00:39:33,279
Speaker 3: going to take Celtic as a long shot.

859
00:39:33,360 --> 00:39:35,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, one note about shots are real quick, and this

860
00:39:35,600 --> 00:39:37,720
Speaker 1: is important. They will not have a home field advantage.

861
00:39:37,760 --> 00:39:41,000
Speaker 1: They're gonna be playing their matches in Warsaw, Poland obviously

862
00:39:41,320 --> 00:39:44,439
Speaker 1: we can't blame in Ukraine right now. So yeah, it's

863
00:39:44,520 --> 00:39:46,560
Speaker 1: like to Tantony's point, you know, they lost a lot

864
00:39:46,560 --> 00:39:50,080
Speaker 1: of players and yeah, it's just it's very difficult to

865
00:39:50,360 --> 00:39:52,399
Speaker 1: get behind them. You know, it's a team that I think,

866
00:39:52,480 --> 00:39:53,880
Speaker 1: you know, a lot of us have gotten behind on

867
00:39:53,880 --> 00:39:56,839
Speaker 1: an individual basis throughout the Champions League in years past,

868
00:39:56,840 --> 00:39:59,760
Speaker 1: but yeah, this year it's just it's it's it's too difficult.

869
00:39:59,760 --> 00:40:01,480
Speaker 1: With the amount of players they lost, they're not gonna

870
00:40:01,480 --> 00:40:04,400
Speaker 1: have home field advantage, like it's yeah, it's it sucks,

871
00:40:04,400 --> 00:40:05,400
Speaker 1: but it's just the reality of.

872
00:40:05,360 --> 00:40:07,640
Speaker 3: Where we're at right now with Shock Tart and they're

873
00:40:07,640 --> 00:40:09,319
Speaker 3: another team that's kind of gone through a cycle, right

874
00:40:09,320 --> 00:40:11,200
Speaker 3: And it was not that long ago that they were

875
00:40:11,520 --> 00:40:14,239
Speaker 3: very competitive with Inter and Real Madrid. Right now, we

876
00:40:14,280 --> 00:40:16,800
Speaker 3: saw last year the gap got bigger, they struggle with

877
00:40:16,880 --> 00:40:20,800
Speaker 3: Sheriff and now they're you know, kind of another stet

878
00:40:20,840 --> 00:40:23,160
Speaker 3: removed and you know, a lot of their players left,

879
00:40:23,200 --> 00:40:26,480
Speaker 3: so it's a very tough situation. But I think they're

880
00:40:26,520 --> 00:40:27,840
Speaker 3: they're pretty well dead here at the.

881
00:40:27,840 --> 00:40:31,960
Speaker 4: Bottom onto group g Man City favorites to win the tournament,

882
00:40:32,000 --> 00:40:33,960
Speaker 4: like I said, plus two fifty at bet three six

883
00:40:34,040 --> 00:40:36,120
Speaker 4: five they are minus four fifty to win. This group

884
00:40:36,160 --> 00:40:39,040
Speaker 4: that also features Brusha Dortmuann plus five fifty. So we'll

885
00:40:39,040 --> 00:40:42,120
Speaker 4: get an earling Holland derby a couple of times here

886
00:40:42,440 --> 00:40:45,919
Speaker 4: Sevia nine to one, FC Copenhagen forty to One's when

887
00:40:46,000 --> 00:40:49,080
Speaker 4: this group pretty uninteresting to me. I think the Holland

888
00:40:49,120 --> 00:40:52,000
Speaker 4: stuff will be fun to watch. I think we'll be betting.

889
00:40:52,520 --> 00:40:55,480
Speaker 4: BJ has been selling Savilla this season a lot, but

890
00:40:55,640 --> 00:40:58,399
Speaker 4: from a just a general outlook, don't I don't see

891
00:40:58,480 --> 00:41:03,160
Speaker 4: much here. I think fading City and Sevilla at points

892
00:41:03,160 --> 00:41:05,960
Speaker 4: will likely be the most common outcome for me, BJ,

893
00:41:06,360 --> 00:41:06,880
Speaker 4: What do you have?

894
00:41:07,560 --> 00:41:09,560
Speaker 1: Yeah? It is is? I mean, I hate this group

895
00:41:09,640 --> 00:41:12,680
Speaker 1: so much because you know, it's like you said, it's

896
00:41:12,719 --> 00:41:17,120
Speaker 1: so boring. I mean we have Dortmund, who was just

897
00:41:17,160 --> 00:41:20,640
Speaker 1: a crazy over former last year. They've haven't I mean

898
00:41:20,680 --> 00:41:23,640
Speaker 1: they've lost you know, they lost Holland, They've added a

899
00:41:23,680 --> 00:41:26,040
Speaker 1: lot of pieces so yeah, they're probably gonna finish second

900
00:41:26,080 --> 00:41:28,800
Speaker 1: in this group. But I have no interest that minus

901
00:41:28,800 --> 00:41:30,759
Speaker 1: two hundred to play them to advance or even to

902
00:41:30,800 --> 00:41:32,360
Speaker 1: win this group, because they're not even close to the

903
00:41:32,440 --> 00:41:36,120
Speaker 1: level of City. Definitely not laying City at minus four fifty.

904
00:41:36,160 --> 00:41:37,600
Speaker 1: I and me, if you want to throw them into parlay

905
00:41:37,760 --> 00:41:40,640
Speaker 1: with maybe somebody else, like like a Tottenham to win

906
00:41:40,680 --> 00:41:42,239
Speaker 1: the group, if you can do that, I mean, that

907
00:41:42,320 --> 00:41:44,040
Speaker 1: might be a decent parl.

908
00:41:43,880 --> 00:41:45,480
Speaker 4: I don't think that's a bad idea, just because of

909
00:41:45,520 --> 00:41:47,480
Speaker 4: the point I made at the time, like if you

910
00:41:47,480 --> 00:41:50,200
Speaker 4: can just group all the chalk and then maybe one

911
00:41:50,920 --> 00:41:53,080
Speaker 4: in there as to like give it some juice or

912
00:41:53,120 --> 00:41:55,120
Speaker 4: like in too advance, like it's it's honestly not a

913
00:41:55,239 --> 00:41:57,160
Speaker 4: terrible idea. But go on.

914
00:41:57,440 --> 00:41:59,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, and you know Sevilla, like I said,

915
00:41:59,560 --> 00:42:01,840
Speaker 1: they lost their center backs. You know, they added some

916
00:42:01,960 --> 00:42:06,160
Speaker 1: attacking pieces. Uh you know eastco Is, you know he's

917
00:42:06,200 --> 00:42:09,680
Speaker 1: getting up there in age. But Copenhagen, I mean, we've

918
00:42:09,680 --> 00:42:11,680
Speaker 1: got to mention our our friends a better collective based

919
00:42:11,680 --> 00:42:14,440
Speaker 1: out of Copenhagen. I'm sure they'll be big on this,

920
00:42:14,600 --> 00:42:17,200
Speaker 1: but I mean they're five thirty eight has them as

921
00:42:17,239 --> 00:42:20,640
Speaker 1: the third worst team in the Champions League. You know,

922
00:42:20,640 --> 00:42:23,120
Speaker 1: if you look at their you know, true talent level

923
00:42:23,160 --> 00:42:24,759
Speaker 1: with you know, I like to look at transfer market

924
00:42:24,800 --> 00:42:27,560
Speaker 1: dot com as you know, basically what their total squad

925
00:42:27,640 --> 00:42:30,799
Speaker 1: value is. That's where I measure talents. I mean, they're

926
00:42:30,840 --> 00:42:33,640
Speaker 1: their fourth worst in the Champions League. So they might

927
00:42:33,640 --> 00:42:35,800
Speaker 1: be a fun team to play, you know, against Savilla

928
00:42:36,040 --> 00:42:37,880
Speaker 1: and potentially against Dortmund if they we can get a

929
00:42:37,920 --> 00:42:39,320
Speaker 1: you know a plus two maybe plus two and a

930
00:42:39,320 --> 00:42:41,000
Speaker 1: half against them, But other than that, Yeah, this group

931
00:42:41,080 --> 00:42:42,640
Speaker 1: is so so boring.

932
00:42:43,239 --> 00:42:46,040
Speaker 4: This one, actually, I think is interesting. PSG minus two

933
00:42:46,080 --> 00:42:48,440
Speaker 4: fifty to top group H at BET three six five,

934
00:42:48,520 --> 00:42:52,160
Speaker 4: you've a close to fifty Benfica eleven to one, Maculbee

935
00:42:52,239 --> 00:42:56,040
Speaker 4: Haifa out of Israel one fifty to one, twenty five

936
00:42:56,080 --> 00:42:58,480
Speaker 4: to one to advance on the team out of Israel.

937
00:42:58,520 --> 00:43:01,520
Speaker 4: I think is interesting. I'll tell you why. It's it's

938
00:43:01,680 --> 00:43:05,960
Speaker 4: we know, Uve is not that good compared to the

939
00:43:06,000 --> 00:43:08,440
Speaker 4: other teams that they're they're normally kind of associated with

940
00:43:08,440 --> 00:43:13,160
Speaker 4: that next tier behind City, Bayern, Liverpool, et cetera, and Benfica.

941
00:43:13,200 --> 00:43:15,920
Speaker 4: Of course, you know they're coming out of Portugal, They're

942
00:43:16,160 --> 00:43:18,680
Speaker 4: they're gonna be a mid pack team in this competition,

943
00:43:19,239 --> 00:43:21,560
Speaker 4: and usually there is a surprise team that gets through

944
00:43:21,640 --> 00:43:24,719
Speaker 4: to the knockout stages. There's always one, uh and we

945
00:43:24,760 --> 00:43:27,839
Speaker 4: almost saw it with FC Sheriff out of Moldova last year.

946
00:43:27,880 --> 00:43:29,719
Speaker 4: So before everyone says, oh, you're crazy for betting a

947
00:43:29,719 --> 00:43:32,520
Speaker 4: team coming out of like the Israeli League, all they

948
00:43:32,520 --> 00:43:35,960
Speaker 4: need to do is beat an overrated U side Benfica

949
00:43:36,040 --> 00:43:39,200
Speaker 4: team that's not great, and you're getting twenty five to one,

950
00:43:39,200 --> 00:43:41,000
Speaker 4: and just to finish second here. If they can they

951
00:43:41,000 --> 00:43:44,040
Speaker 4: can nick a couple of wins, they're live. Maybe maybe

952
00:43:44,080 --> 00:43:46,280
Speaker 4: Israel is a tough place to travel to and play

953
00:43:46,400 --> 00:43:49,080
Speaker 4: in soccer. I don't know, but that's my only long

954
00:43:49,080 --> 00:43:52,080
Speaker 4: shot here, Anthony, any thoughts on group each.

955
00:43:52,280 --> 00:43:53,719
Speaker 3: Who's the second best team in the group?

956
00:43:53,840 --> 00:43:55,719
Speaker 1: That's Benefica, right, So the door, That's what I'm saying.

957
00:43:55,719 --> 00:43:57,640
Speaker 4: The door is kind of open. Like here, wait for.

958
00:43:57,920 --> 00:43:59,680
Speaker 1: Is Benefica the second best team in the group or

959
00:43:59,680 --> 00:44:01,080
Speaker 1: are they the best team in this group?

960
00:44:01,160 --> 00:44:06,120
Speaker 3: Oh gosh, I think we need to pump the rakes

961
00:44:06,160 --> 00:44:10,879
Speaker 3: on the PSG a little bit, just a little bit.

962
00:44:11,280 --> 00:44:12,040
Speaker 2: I do think they're.

963
00:44:11,840 --> 00:44:13,440
Speaker 4: Better, but but you both like Benfica.

964
00:44:14,320 --> 00:44:16,839
Speaker 2: Benfica is not better than PSG. They may be better than.

965
00:44:17,200 --> 00:44:20,280
Speaker 4: But you again saying you like them, you like Benfica.

966
00:44:20,320 --> 00:44:22,839
Speaker 4: You both are buying them, which means that the kind

967
00:44:22,880 --> 00:44:25,960
Speaker 4: of second place battle here could just get interesting if

968
00:44:26,000 --> 00:44:28,160
Speaker 4: you think Benfica is better than Youvey. So that's kind

969
00:44:28,160 --> 00:44:31,360
Speaker 4: of my thought process here. Taking one long shot to

970
00:44:31,360 --> 00:44:33,760
Speaker 4: come out of a group, it will be maccabee haifa.

971
00:44:34,000 --> 00:44:37,120
Speaker 3: Anyways, Anthony, I mean this comes down to, Okay, we

972
00:44:37,239 --> 00:44:40,400
Speaker 3: think Syria is really bad and events finished with a

973
00:44:40,560 --> 00:44:44,799
Speaker 3: you know, good not great metric. In in Syria they

974
00:44:44,880 --> 00:44:48,759
Speaker 3: ran pretty well to get to the knockout stage or

975
00:44:48,800 --> 00:44:50,600
Speaker 3: to rather to win the group, and then they were

976
00:44:50,600 --> 00:44:53,439
Speaker 3: eliminated by v Real, where they got dominated the second leg.

977
00:44:53,760 --> 00:44:56,160
Speaker 3: Uventus have looked pretty mediocre to start the season.

978
00:44:56,600 --> 00:44:58,360
Speaker 2: Benfica, of course.

979
00:44:58,200 --> 00:45:01,600
Speaker 3: The biggest thing is that Darwin has gone. But last

980
00:45:01,640 --> 00:45:06,000
Speaker 3: season much better in Portugal than Juventus was in Italy.

981
00:45:06,640 --> 00:45:10,040
Speaker 3: They performed well in their Champions League group, got to

982
00:45:10,280 --> 00:45:14,120
Speaker 3: the quarterfinals and caused problems for Liverpool in transition and

983
00:45:14,800 --> 00:45:17,360
Speaker 3: caused problems for Ajax in the first leg in transition.

984
00:45:17,760 --> 00:45:20,319
Speaker 3: Like I think, like do I think Benfica is making

985
00:45:20,360 --> 00:45:21,759
Speaker 3: a deep run in the Champions League.

986
00:45:21,840 --> 00:45:25,680
Speaker 2: No, but plus three point fifty. I think they're just

987
00:45:25,719 --> 00:45:28,960
Speaker 2: as good as Juventus. So I love Benfica.

988
00:45:29,040 --> 00:45:31,160
Speaker 3: That's that's an easy one for me to play.

989
00:45:31,719 --> 00:45:33,640
Speaker 1: I mean, they literally got out of a group with

990
00:45:33,880 --> 00:45:35,399
Speaker 1: Byron and Barsel last year.

991
00:45:36,120 --> 00:45:39,560
Speaker 3: Is this greer with bars and caused problems for buying conditions.

992
00:45:39,640 --> 00:45:43,040
Speaker 1: So, I mean, here's my biggest point on Benefica. So

993
00:45:43,440 --> 00:45:47,000
Speaker 1: purely liked Anthony's point about Juventus's metrics. They were plus

994
00:45:47,080 --> 00:45:50,000
Speaker 1: point three five actually differential per ninety minutes in Syria.

995
00:45:50,000 --> 00:45:53,680
Speaker 1: That's actually seventh in Syria. Odd, that was horrible. You

996
00:45:53,719 --> 00:45:56,840
Speaker 1: look at Benefica, you know they're they're around the same

997
00:45:57,120 --> 00:45:59,839
Speaker 1: as you know, Sporting and Porto they're on one point

998
00:45:59,840 --> 00:46:02,279
Speaker 1: five or you know, actually differential per ninety minutes, you know,

999
00:46:02,239 --> 00:46:04,240
Speaker 1: in the Portuguese League. So the gap, and we've already

1000
00:46:04,280 --> 00:46:07,680
Speaker 1: mentioned the gap between them at the Portugal and Italy

1001
00:46:07,800 --> 00:46:09,960
Speaker 1: really isn't as drask as you know, Italy to the

1002
00:46:10,000 --> 00:46:13,960
Speaker 1: Premier League. So we have Benefica at plus three point fifty,

1003
00:46:13,960 --> 00:46:15,759
Speaker 1: which I think is just a crazy price. Yes, they

1004
00:46:15,760 --> 00:46:18,920
Speaker 1: do lose Darwin Nunez. They have David NRIs from IAX,

1005
00:46:18,920 --> 00:46:22,400
Speaker 1: who's a really fun winger, who's gonna improve their attack.

1006
00:46:22,880 --> 00:46:25,200
Speaker 1: The biggest thing with Uventus if you look through even

1007
00:46:25,280 --> 00:46:28,239
Speaker 1: just if we remove Syria last year and we just

1008
00:46:28,239 --> 00:46:30,480
Speaker 1: looked at the Champions League. If you remove the two

1009
00:46:30,560 --> 00:46:35,080
Speaker 1: matches they played against Malmo, they had a minus one

1010
00:46:35,120 --> 00:46:38,080
Speaker 1: point five expected goal differential. If you remove the two

1011
00:46:38,120 --> 00:46:40,640
Speaker 1: matches that Benefica played against Bayron Munich where they just

1012
00:46:40,640 --> 00:46:44,719
Speaker 1: got absolutely pasted, they actually had a plus point eight. Sorry,

1013
00:46:44,760 --> 00:46:47,400
Speaker 1: if you remove the matches against both Liverpool and Bayron Munich,

1014
00:46:47,680 --> 00:46:50,400
Speaker 1: they have a plus point eight expected goal differential essentially

1015
00:46:50,480 --> 00:46:53,600
Speaker 1: two matches against IAX, two matches against Barcelona, and two

1016
00:46:53,600 --> 00:46:56,439
Speaker 1: matches against denim O Kiev. Like that's impressive, Like that's

1017
00:46:56,520 --> 00:46:59,080
Speaker 1: really really good. And you know Anthony already mentioned five

1018
00:46:59,160 --> 00:47:03,720
Speaker 1: thirty eight, Well five thirty eight has Benefica at sixty

1019
00:47:03,760 --> 00:47:06,840
Speaker 1: five percent to advance, Like that's almost like close to

1020
00:47:06,880 --> 00:47:10,719
Speaker 1: minus two hundred to advance. So it's pretty crazy that

1021
00:47:11,160 --> 00:47:13,880
Speaker 1: they're sitting at this big of a price to advance.

1022
00:47:13,960 --> 00:47:17,120
Speaker 1: I mean, events, this is just getting crazy overvalued here.

1023
00:47:17,120 --> 00:47:19,319
Speaker 1: They didn't really do anything in the transfer window to

1024
00:47:19,440 --> 00:47:22,320
Speaker 1: like drastically improve them. We talked a lot about you know,

1025
00:47:22,400 --> 00:47:25,960
Speaker 1: du sand Vlahovic and how overrated he is. Paul pog

1026
00:47:26,000 --> 00:47:30,000
Speaker 1: has been injured. It's it's just a really lame duck

1027
00:47:30,160 --> 00:47:33,239
Speaker 1: feel and PSG. They could continue to win seven to

1028
00:47:33,280 --> 00:47:35,560
Speaker 1: nothing in the league on, you know, week after week,

1029
00:47:35,600 --> 00:47:37,759
Speaker 1: and it will not change my mind on them. I

1030
00:47:37,800 --> 00:47:42,880
Speaker 1: am so looking forward to taking Benefica against PSG in

1031
00:47:42,880 --> 00:47:44,840
Speaker 1: the Champions League. I won't be betting Uventus, There's no

1032
00:47:44,920 --> 00:47:47,360
Speaker 1: chance I'm doing that, but you know, minus two fifty

1033
00:47:47,360 --> 00:47:50,040
Speaker 1: is probably a fair price for PSG to win this group.

1034
00:47:50,080 --> 00:47:52,000
Speaker 1: I mean, they obviously have way more talent than these

1035
00:47:52,000 --> 00:47:56,440
Speaker 1: two teams, but I mean they were what a plus

1036
00:47:56,680 --> 00:47:59,480
Speaker 1: zero point five expecting Golden Frenchial overall in the Champions

1037
00:47:59,520 --> 00:48:01,719
Speaker 1: League last year. They were in the Group of death,

1038
00:48:01,760 --> 00:48:04,600
Speaker 1: but they were not impressive in it. So once we

1039
00:48:04,640 --> 00:48:06,160
Speaker 1: get to the round of sixteen, it's going to be

1040
00:48:06,160 --> 00:48:08,440
Speaker 1: really fun to fade PSG. But I mean Benefica is

1041
00:48:08,440 --> 00:48:09,719
Speaker 1: going to be the only match where I'm actually going

1042
00:48:09,800 --> 00:48:11,480
Speaker 1: to fade PSG. May if I get like a plus

1043
00:48:11,520 --> 00:48:13,960
Speaker 1: three and a half on you know, Mcabiafia against them,

1044
00:48:14,080 --> 00:48:17,120
Speaker 1: I might do that. But Michael, to your point, Macabiaphia

1045
00:48:17,160 --> 00:48:19,600
Speaker 1: and Victoria Pleasant are like in arms race for the

1046
00:48:20,040 --> 00:48:23,040
Speaker 1: Who's the worst team in the Champions League. Just comparison

1047
00:48:23,040 --> 00:48:28,360
Speaker 1: purposes total squad value for Mcabiafia's seventeen point six million,

1048
00:48:28,520 --> 00:48:31,160
Speaker 1: Benefica two hundred and forty two million, Juventus five hundred

1049
00:48:31,200 --> 00:48:35,000
Speaker 1: and four million PSG almost a billion, So the gap

1050
00:48:35,080 --> 00:48:40,319
Speaker 1: between these teams is quite drastic. But you know who knows, Yeah,

1051
00:48:40,360 --> 00:48:42,640
Speaker 1: Benefica at plus three fifty is a crazy price to

1052
00:48:42,680 --> 00:48:43,439
Speaker 1: get out of this group.

1053
00:48:43,480 --> 00:48:46,160
Speaker 4: All right. That wraps up our previews. We talked about

1054
00:48:46,160 --> 00:48:48,120
Speaker 4: out right, so we talked about long shots. So let's

1055
00:48:48,160 --> 00:48:50,640
Speaker 4: just wrap up real quick with our favorite bets on

1056
00:48:50,680 --> 00:48:53,120
Speaker 4: the board. Anthony, you want to go first, We.

1057
00:48:53,200 --> 00:48:53,920
Speaker 2: Just talked about it.

1058
00:48:53,920 --> 00:48:56,880
Speaker 3: It's Benfica plus three fifty to advance out of this group.

1059
00:48:56,920 --> 00:49:01,319
Speaker 3: I still think they're undervalued despite losing Darwin Tool. They

1060
00:49:01,320 --> 00:49:03,800
Speaker 3: have good Champions League pedigree. They had good underlying numbers

1061
00:49:03,880 --> 00:49:06,160
Speaker 3: last year. They were thorn in the side of Byron

1062
00:49:06,280 --> 00:49:10,240
Speaker 3: and Barsa. They got results in both matches against Byron

1063
00:49:10,400 --> 00:49:13,680
Speaker 3: or Barsa rather and caused some issues and fell apart

1064
00:49:13,760 --> 00:49:17,920
Speaker 3: late against Byron again beating Ax. They have shown a good,

1065
00:49:18,040 --> 00:49:21,920
Speaker 3: solid underdog profile with a good defense, and Juventus continues

1066
00:49:21,960 --> 00:49:25,279
Speaker 3: to be extremely overrated in the markets. Five thirty eight

1067
00:49:25,360 --> 00:49:28,080
Speaker 3: rates Juventus is a worse team. I think they may

1068
00:49:28,120 --> 00:49:30,680
Speaker 3: be worse, and I'm going to take the plus three

1069
00:49:30,719 --> 00:49:33,120
Speaker 3: to fifty on them, knowing that the fourth group in

1070
00:49:33,160 --> 00:49:35,640
Speaker 3: the team is kind of a throwaway here, and I

1071
00:49:35,640 --> 00:49:39,040
Speaker 3: think Benfica might match up better with PSG than Juventus does.

1072
00:49:39,160 --> 00:49:41,880
Speaker 4: So I love Benfica. Plus three to fifty two advance

1073
00:49:42,200 --> 00:49:44,800
Speaker 4: an annual tradition for me. My favorite bet at Letigo

1074
00:49:44,880 --> 00:49:48,400
Speaker 4: Madrid twenty eight to one to win the Champions League.

1075
00:49:48,719 --> 00:49:51,919
Speaker 4: Very manageable group with Bruce Porto and Leverkusen their minus

1076
00:49:51,960 --> 00:49:55,400
Speaker 4: three fifty two advance out of that quartet last three seasons.

1077
00:49:55,400 --> 00:49:58,600
Speaker 4: One of the best defensive teams in this generation of

1078
00:49:58,640 --> 00:50:02,440
Speaker 4: European football with Diego Simioni at the helm, and we know,

1079
00:50:03,080 --> 00:50:04,719
Speaker 4: we just know how much of a bear this team

1080
00:50:04,840 --> 00:50:07,480
Speaker 4: is when we get to the knockout stages. Man City

1081
00:50:08,239 --> 00:50:11,840
Speaker 4: barely squeaked by them last year one nil on aggregate

1082
00:50:11,840 --> 00:50:15,000
Speaker 4: across two legs. So when push comes to shove, you

1083
00:50:15,040 --> 00:50:17,120
Speaker 4: just want to back this team. When we start to

1084
00:50:17,120 --> 00:50:21,160
Speaker 4: see these knockout stage matches, at Letty once again twenty

1085
00:50:21,160 --> 00:50:23,000
Speaker 4: eight to one BJA anything for you.

1086
00:50:23,640 --> 00:50:26,680
Speaker 1: Yes, Sporting Lisbon to qualify plus two hundred out of

1087
00:50:26,719 --> 00:50:29,399
Speaker 1: Group D. Tottenham is probably gonna run away with this group,

1088
00:50:29,440 --> 00:50:31,759
Speaker 1: but they put two of my biggest fade teams in

1089
00:50:31,760 --> 00:50:34,520
Speaker 1: the same group, Frankfurt and Marseille. Marseille since the start

1090
00:50:34,560 --> 00:50:38,320
Speaker 1: of last season only as a plus point five actually

1091
00:50:38,360 --> 00:50:42,359
Speaker 1: differential per ninety minutes. Well, if you look at Uephaico efficients,

1092
00:50:42,920 --> 00:50:46,799
Speaker 1: France is fifth among Europe and the gap between them

1093
00:50:46,800 --> 00:50:49,640
Speaker 1: and Portugal is not that big. So if we look

1094
00:50:49,640 --> 00:50:53,000
Speaker 1: at Sporting Lisbon's expecting gold differential, they're at one point

1095
00:50:53,040 --> 00:50:55,880
Speaker 1: four to one last year and actually got out of

1096
00:50:55,880 --> 00:50:57,960
Speaker 1: a group with a AX. And Dortmund made the round

1097
00:50:57,960 --> 00:51:00,640
Speaker 1: of sixteen and obviously got pasted by man Chester City.

1098
00:51:00,680 --> 00:51:03,160
Speaker 1: So I don't believe that they're being should be the

1099
00:51:03,239 --> 00:51:05,560
Speaker 1: price as the worst team in this group. I think

1100
00:51:05,600 --> 00:51:07,759
Speaker 1: they're very clear in a way the second best team

1101
00:51:07,760 --> 00:51:10,200
Speaker 1: in this group because the other team, Frankfurt, Yes, they

1102
00:51:10,239 --> 00:51:11,840
Speaker 1: won the Europa League, but I mean they were a

1103
00:51:11,880 --> 00:51:16,239
Speaker 1: minus seven expected goal differential team in the Bundesliga. They

1104
00:51:16,600 --> 00:51:19,320
Speaker 1: just lost their best attacking midfielder Philip Kostitch early on

1105
00:51:19,400 --> 00:51:22,880
Speaker 1: in the BUNDESLGA. They've looked horrible, so at plus two hundred,

1106
00:51:22,960 --> 00:51:25,440
Speaker 1: I love Sporting Lisbon to get out of Group D.

1107
00:51:25,800 --> 00:51:28,840
Speaker 4: And that wraps up our Champions League betting preview for

1108
00:51:28,920 --> 00:51:31,960
Speaker 4: the upcoming year. It starts Tuesday. Boy, a lot of

1109
00:51:32,000 --> 00:51:34,160
Speaker 4: soccer coming our way. This once again has been wonder

1110
00:51:34,160 --> 00:51:36,160
Speaker 4: goal of the Soccer Betting Podcast. For the action, I

1111
00:51:36,200 --> 00:51:38,799
Speaker 4: represented to you by our lovely sponsors. Bet three six

1112
00:51:38,880 --> 00:51:41,640
Speaker 4: five for BJ Cunningham, for Anthony da Bundo. I'm Michael

1113
00:51:41,680 --> 00:51:44,000
Speaker 4: leeb Up. We will see you Thursday morning.