1 00:00:02,720 --> 00:00:07,200 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:08,000 --> 00:00:10,160 Speaker 2: If you're looking for a gut check on the health 3 00:00:10,200 --> 00:00:13,560 Speaker 2: of the US economy, you could call up an economist, 4 00:00:14,320 --> 00:00:16,400 Speaker 2: or you could ask a hairdresser. 5 00:00:17,760 --> 00:00:20,000 Speaker 3: Do you feel like the economy is good right now? 6 00:00:20,120 --> 00:00:22,520 Speaker 4: I'm nervous, honestly, I'm nervous for what's going to happen 7 00:00:22,840 --> 00:00:24,400 Speaker 4: in the industry specifically. 8 00:00:24,840 --> 00:00:28,560 Speaker 2: That's Sydney Jackson Green. She's a cosmetology student who works 9 00:00:28,560 --> 00:00:32,360 Speaker 2: at a salon in Springfield, Pennsylvania. She met her colleague 10 00:00:32,360 --> 00:00:35,279 Speaker 2: Ben Steverman at a beauty industry trade show in New 11 00:00:35,360 --> 00:00:39,080 Speaker 2: York earlier this spring and told him that recently business 12 00:00:39,120 --> 00:00:40,280 Speaker 2: has been slowing down. 13 00:00:40,680 --> 00:00:42,360 Speaker 4: You know, I'm very young, and a lot of my 14 00:00:42,360 --> 00:00:44,600 Speaker 4: clients Sele is young as well, so some of these 15 00:00:44,680 --> 00:00:48,000 Speaker 4: outrageous prices is effecting business. 16 00:00:48,320 --> 00:00:50,680 Speaker 3: She does a lot of braiding and the supplies you 17 00:00:50,720 --> 00:00:54,360 Speaker 3: need for braiding hair. The prices have gone up significantly. 18 00:00:54,520 --> 00:00:56,840 Speaker 4: Braiding hair has gone up probably at least like three 19 00:00:56,880 --> 00:00:59,840 Speaker 4: dollars since I started doing hair. Now, if you need 20 00:01:00,280 --> 00:01:03,360 Speaker 4: four or five packs for your hair now, it just 21 00:01:03,440 --> 00:01:07,840 Speaker 4: went up twelve to twenty dollars depending on how much 22 00:01:07,959 --> 00:01:08,360 Speaker 4: air you. 23 00:01:08,360 --> 00:01:11,800 Speaker 3: Ad Also, hair coloring, hair dye, those have gone up. 24 00:01:11,840 --> 00:01:13,680 Speaker 4: People still want their hair done, but now people are 25 00:01:13,840 --> 00:01:16,440 Speaker 4: learning how to do it at home. I've had a 26 00:01:16,480 --> 00:01:17,920 Speaker 4: bunch of at home disasters. 27 00:01:18,440 --> 00:01:21,320 Speaker 3: Her clients will call her because they've done something at home, 28 00:01:21,440 --> 00:01:23,920 Speaker 3: like they've dyed their own hair and it just looks terrible, 29 00:01:24,000 --> 00:01:25,320 Speaker 3: So then she has to fix it. 30 00:01:25,400 --> 00:01:29,720 Speaker 4: When it comes down to shampoo's conditioners, they're also increasing 31 00:01:29,800 --> 00:01:33,680 Speaker 4: their pricing. So now when our client needs a deep conditioner, 32 00:01:33,920 --> 00:01:35,600 Speaker 4: she's like, hey, can I get it next time? But 33 00:01:35,680 --> 00:01:37,520 Speaker 4: that's your hair needs it this time. 34 00:01:39,240 --> 00:01:43,679 Speaker 2: To Ben Sydney's story felt eerily familiar. People trying to 35 00:01:43,720 --> 00:01:47,400 Speaker 2: save money by skipping trips to the salon experimenting with 36 00:01:47,600 --> 00:01:51,200 Speaker 2: DIY styles. If that brings up memories of the COVID 37 00:01:51,320 --> 00:01:55,520 Speaker 2: nineteen pandemic, think back even further to the aftermath of 38 00:01:55,560 --> 00:01:57,720 Speaker 2: the two thousand and eight financial crisis. 39 00:01:58,200 --> 00:02:03,320 Speaker 3: There was a hairstyle momana called recession hair. Supposedly, there's 40 00:02:03,360 --> 00:02:06,760 Speaker 3: a trend of people getting lower maintenance cuts in the 41 00:02:06,760 --> 00:02:07,720 Speaker 3: financial crisis. 42 00:02:08,160 --> 00:02:11,480 Speaker 2: Official economic data can be slow to reflect the actual 43 00:02:11,520 --> 00:02:14,799 Speaker 2: state of the economy, and though Trump's tariff policies and 44 00:02:14,919 --> 00:02:18,840 Speaker 2: the reaction to them have stoked fears of another coming recession. 45 00:02:19,320 --> 00:02:23,120 Speaker 2: So far, key economic indicators are stable. The stock market 46 00:02:23,120 --> 00:02:26,519 Speaker 2: has mostly rebounded from its dive of last month, unemployment 47 00:02:26,639 --> 00:02:29,960 Speaker 2: hasn't gone up, and an April inflation rose by less 48 00:02:30,000 --> 00:02:34,440 Speaker 2: than forecasted. The strongest warnings have appeared in data that 49 00:02:34,480 --> 00:02:38,200 Speaker 2: reflect how consumers and companies are feeling about the economy. 50 00:02:38,680 --> 00:02:41,400 Speaker 2: A University of Michigan survey with data going back to 51 00:02:41,440 --> 00:02:45,520 Speaker 2: the seventies found that in May, US consumer sentiment hit 52 00:02:45,600 --> 00:02:50,080 Speaker 2: its second lowest level on record. Last week, Walmart warned 53 00:02:50,160 --> 00:02:53,360 Speaker 2: it might soon have to raise prices, and this week, 54 00:02:53,440 --> 00:02:56,960 Speaker 2: when Target released its first quarter earnings, it revealed sales 55 00:02:57,000 --> 00:03:00,400 Speaker 2: have been slowing. In times like these, people hung for 56 00:03:00,480 --> 00:03:03,960 Speaker 2: more real time color can get creative and turned to 57 00:03:04,160 --> 00:03:10,000 Speaker 2: unofficial sources of economic data too. Like beauty industry trends. 58 00:03:09,960 --> 00:03:13,960 Speaker 3: The first thing you cut down on in a slowdown 59 00:03:14,320 --> 00:03:17,600 Speaker 3: might be that facial or that massage. 60 00:03:17,520 --> 00:03:23,280 Speaker 2: Or that haircut. Today on the show, what beauty spending 61 00:03:23,320 --> 00:03:25,960 Speaker 2: can tell us about the health of the US economy 62 00:03:26,360 --> 00:03:29,000 Speaker 2: and what shifts in behavior at home and at the 63 00:03:29,040 --> 00:03:33,160 Speaker 2: salon are signaling about where it's headed next. This is 64 00:03:33,200 --> 00:03:41,320 Speaker 2: the big take from Bloomberg News. I'm Sarah Holder. Back 65 00:03:41,320 --> 00:03:44,000 Speaker 2: in March, Ben Steverman went to a beauty show and 66 00:03:44,040 --> 00:03:47,080 Speaker 2: cosmetics conference where he hoped to check the pulse of 67 00:03:47,120 --> 00:03:52,320 Speaker 2: the US economy. Thirty two thousand spa technicians, hairstylists, colorists, 68 00:03:52,360 --> 00:03:53,920 Speaker 2: and makeup artists were there too. 69 00:03:54,560 --> 00:03:57,240 Speaker 3: It was two giant rooms connected by a tunnel, and 70 00:03:57,280 --> 00:04:00,440 Speaker 3: on one side with all the spa stuff, and on 71 00:04:00,480 --> 00:04:03,520 Speaker 3: the other side was all the hair stuff. And you 72 00:04:03,520 --> 00:04:06,000 Speaker 3: would go buy these boots, and some of them were 73 00:04:06,040 --> 00:04:09,440 Speaker 3: quite elaborate. They would have demonstrations going on where where 74 00:04:09,440 --> 00:04:12,760 Speaker 3: they're putting goop on people's faces or they're cutting hair 75 00:04:13,120 --> 00:04:16,320 Speaker 3: as a demonstration. It was one hundreds thousands of different 76 00:04:16,360 --> 00:04:19,760 Speaker 3: products being sold and it was fun. 77 00:04:20,440 --> 00:04:22,320 Speaker 2: What kind of mood were you picking up there? Was 78 00:04:22,360 --> 00:04:24,520 Speaker 2: it jubilant? Was it anxious? 79 00:04:24,720 --> 00:04:26,160 Speaker 3: It wasn't that they were in a bad mood. It 80 00:04:26,240 --> 00:04:28,560 Speaker 3: was only when I asked them about how's business that 81 00:04:28,600 --> 00:04:31,000 Speaker 3: they told me things that were a little troubling. 82 00:04:31,360 --> 00:04:34,160 Speaker 2: Ben met a woman who does eyelash extensions and hair 83 00:04:34,200 --> 00:04:35,839 Speaker 2: coloring in Brewer, Maine. 84 00:04:36,120 --> 00:04:37,800 Speaker 4: I used to have a lot of like bleaching tones, 85 00:04:37,880 --> 00:04:39,760 Speaker 4: whereas now they're kind of going for that lived in 86 00:04:39,839 --> 00:04:42,400 Speaker 4: moment so they can go longer between our appointments. 87 00:04:42,600 --> 00:04:45,200 Speaker 2: The more natural the hair color, the less obvious it 88 00:04:45,279 --> 00:04:47,159 Speaker 2: is if you haven't had your hair dyed in a while. 89 00:04:48,040 --> 00:04:50,640 Speaker 2: Ben also talked to an executive at a New Jersey 90 00:04:50,680 --> 00:04:54,960 Speaker 2: based skincare company that's recently launched mini versions of its products. 91 00:04:55,120 --> 00:04:57,560 Speaker 3: The price point was better, So I think having that 92 00:04:57,600 --> 00:04:59,960 Speaker 3: as an option for people, they can still be entered 93 00:05:00,160 --> 00:05:02,640 Speaker 3: into our product line without having to spend xt amounts 94 00:05:02,640 --> 00:05:02,920 Speaker 3: of money. 95 00:05:02,920 --> 00:05:06,279 Speaker 2: So and he met a massage therapist in Northern Virginia 96 00:05:06,480 --> 00:05:09,160 Speaker 2: with a lot of federal government workers as clients. 97 00:05:09,560 --> 00:05:12,080 Speaker 4: It's feeling on like two thousand and eight with the 98 00:05:12,120 --> 00:05:15,680 Speaker 4: market crash and everybody not knowing what to do, and 99 00:05:15,800 --> 00:05:17,400 Speaker 4: so they don't want to spend that access money. 100 00:05:17,600 --> 00:05:21,720 Speaker 3: I was hearing this from Okay, here's this person in Manhattan, 101 00:05:22,200 --> 00:05:24,880 Speaker 3: and here's this person in rural New Hampshire, and they're 102 00:05:24,920 --> 00:05:27,960 Speaker 3: saying the same thing. That was really interesting. The people 103 00:05:27,960 --> 00:05:30,120 Speaker 3: who'd been doing this for decades, they were the ones 104 00:05:30,120 --> 00:05:33,760 Speaker 3: who said, this feels like other slowdowns I've been through 105 00:05:33,839 --> 00:05:36,360 Speaker 3: in my career, and I'm worried. 106 00:05:37,600 --> 00:05:42,280 Speaker 2: In spas and salons across America, beauty professionals are noticing 107 00:05:42,320 --> 00:05:45,440 Speaker 2: clients cutting back and shifting their spending in the age 108 00:05:45,480 --> 00:05:50,200 Speaker 2: of teriff related uncertainty, and beauty companies are noticing too. 109 00:05:50,440 --> 00:05:55,800 Speaker 1: There's some indication that the major cosmetics companies expect at 110 00:05:55,880 --> 00:05:58,920 Speaker 1: least a little bit of a slowdown in the coming year. 111 00:05:59,400 --> 00:06:03,679 Speaker 2: That's Newman, a reporter on Bloomberg's Consumer team. She writes 112 00:06:03,720 --> 00:06:07,400 Speaker 2: about the beauty and cosmetics industry, an industry that's experienced 113 00:06:07,440 --> 00:06:11,240 Speaker 2: a massive surge and growth worldwide in recent years. Between 114 00:06:11,240 --> 00:06:14,880 Speaker 2: twenty twenty one and twenty twenty three, industry analysts estimate 115 00:06:14,920 --> 00:06:18,039 Speaker 2: that the global beauty market grew by up to eight percent, 116 00:06:18,760 --> 00:06:20,760 Speaker 2: but that trajectory could be changing. 117 00:06:21,640 --> 00:06:24,760 Speaker 1: The CEO of Looreal so one of the biggest beauty 118 00:06:24,800 --> 00:06:28,560 Speaker 1: companies in the world, he said last month, so in April, 119 00:06:29,040 --> 00:06:32,480 Speaker 1: that expects the beauty category to grow globally like four 120 00:06:32,800 --> 00:06:35,120 Speaker 1: to four point five percent, and that was on the 121 00:06:35,160 --> 00:06:38,600 Speaker 1: slightly lower end of what they had been expecting. I mean, 122 00:06:38,640 --> 00:06:40,719 Speaker 1: this is not just lorel this is globally, So that 123 00:06:40,839 --> 00:06:42,920 Speaker 1: just gives you a sense, like four to four point 124 00:06:43,000 --> 00:06:45,400 Speaker 1: five percent, it's still really really good. 125 00:06:45,240 --> 00:06:47,720 Speaker 2: Growth, but it's a slowdown in that growth exactly. 126 00:06:47,800 --> 00:06:49,080 Speaker 1: It's a slow down in that growth. 127 00:06:49,640 --> 00:06:52,760 Speaker 2: The Lorel CEO said that this year his growth prediction 128 00:06:52,920 --> 00:06:55,200 Speaker 2: was on the lower end because of a slower than 129 00:06:55,240 --> 00:06:58,760 Speaker 2: expected American market, and he said it didn't even account 130 00:06:58,800 --> 00:07:02,400 Speaker 2: for how quote inter national turmoil and tariff wars could 131 00:07:02,400 --> 00:07:05,840 Speaker 2: make things worse. Even though Trump has pumped the brakes 132 00:07:05,839 --> 00:07:08,599 Speaker 2: on some of his most aggressive tariffs on China for now, 133 00:07:09,080 --> 00:07:12,119 Speaker 2: reciprocal tariffs are still set to take effect in July, 134 00:07:12,720 --> 00:07:16,320 Speaker 2: and there's concern those levees could make everything from manufacturing 135 00:07:16,360 --> 00:07:20,280 Speaker 2: to packaging more expensive, driving up prices across the beauty 136 00:07:20,320 --> 00:07:23,320 Speaker 2: market and pushing customers to be more selective. 137 00:07:24,760 --> 00:07:28,880 Speaker 1: What they're really more worried about is that consumers seeing 138 00:07:28,960 --> 00:07:32,120 Speaker 1: all of this talk of tariffs, concerns about higher prices, 139 00:07:32,160 --> 00:07:35,200 Speaker 1: concerns about a potential recession in the US, will pull 140 00:07:35,280 --> 00:07:36,240 Speaker 1: back on their spending. 141 00:07:36,680 --> 00:07:41,320 Speaker 2: Over the past few years, highly involved multi step multi products, 142 00:07:41,360 --> 00:07:44,400 Speaker 2: skincare and makeup routines have been on the rise. It 143 00:07:44,440 --> 00:07:47,280 Speaker 2: all started during the pandemic, when people were stuck at 144 00:07:47,280 --> 00:07:50,040 Speaker 2: home with time on their hands, sharing beauty tips on 145 00:07:50,080 --> 00:07:54,080 Speaker 2: TikTok How I do my barely there glowy MAKEOVERROUTEAE. This 146 00:07:54,160 --> 00:07:56,040 Speaker 2: is quite twenty nine years and you just pack it 147 00:07:56,040 --> 00:07:56,680 Speaker 2: into your skin. 148 00:07:56,840 --> 00:07:59,160 Speaker 3: Now most people use one prima I use. 149 00:07:59,160 --> 00:08:02,920 Speaker 2: Three, but Jeannett says there are signs that trend could 150 00:08:02,920 --> 00:08:03,640 Speaker 2: be moderating. 151 00:08:04,480 --> 00:08:07,680 Speaker 1: So, for example, setting sprays have been declining in the 152 00:08:07,720 --> 00:08:10,320 Speaker 1: past couple months, and some of the analysts I spoke 153 00:08:10,360 --> 00:08:12,520 Speaker 1: with think that that is in part because people are 154 00:08:12,520 --> 00:08:15,280 Speaker 1: starting to kind of cut some of these steps out 155 00:08:15,360 --> 00:08:16,840 Speaker 1: of their of their routines. 156 00:08:17,200 --> 00:08:20,720 Speaker 2: Certain products could be more vulnerable to getting cut than others. 157 00:08:21,240 --> 00:08:23,840 Speaker 1: There's some incipient signs that we're seeing that people can 158 00:08:23,880 --> 00:08:27,560 Speaker 1: prioritize their spending on kind of better and fewer products. 159 00:08:27,800 --> 00:08:33,040 Speaker 1: Loloreal reported their earnings recently and their higher end offering 160 00:08:33,320 --> 00:08:36,760 Speaker 1: actually did really well, better than their mass market products. 161 00:08:37,080 --> 00:08:39,280 Speaker 1: And that can also be like I'm cutting back on, 162 00:08:39,440 --> 00:08:41,959 Speaker 1: you know, step twelve or eleven of my beauty routine, 163 00:08:42,160 --> 00:08:44,440 Speaker 1: or i could be cutting back several steps and I 164 00:08:44,480 --> 00:08:47,840 Speaker 1: decide that I'm actually going to buy that really expensive 165 00:08:47,920 --> 00:08:50,360 Speaker 1: lotion because I think that it, you know, works better, 166 00:08:50,400 --> 00:08:52,080 Speaker 1: it's worth it. I'm going to focus on that and 167 00:08:52,080 --> 00:08:53,959 Speaker 1: put my money towards that. So I'm buying a more 168 00:08:54,000 --> 00:08:57,400 Speaker 1: expensive lotion because I'm not buying the setting spray. I'm 169 00:08:57,440 --> 00:08:59,840 Speaker 1: not buying three or four different serums. 170 00:09:00,080 --> 00:09:02,679 Speaker 2: And while some people are choosing to invest more in 171 00:09:02,760 --> 00:09:06,640 Speaker 2: the products they do keep buying, others are willing to downgrade. 172 00:09:06,720 --> 00:09:09,800 Speaker 2: According to data from a beauty industry research group called 173 00:09:10,120 --> 00:09:11,680 Speaker 2: h Intelligence. 174 00:09:11,559 --> 00:09:14,559 Speaker 1: What we've been seeing recently is that kind of less 175 00:09:14,559 --> 00:09:18,760 Speaker 1: expensive versions of fragrance are becoming more popular, and this 176 00:09:18,800 --> 00:09:21,839 Speaker 1: is potentially in reaction to just consumers saying, hey, I'm 177 00:09:21,840 --> 00:09:25,280 Speaker 1: worried about potential recession, higher prices, I'm going to watch 178 00:09:25,320 --> 00:09:28,560 Speaker 1: my wallet. So things like roller balls, which are cheaper 179 00:09:28,679 --> 00:09:32,560 Speaker 1: versions of fragrance dupes, have continued to go from strength 180 00:09:32,559 --> 00:09:33,400 Speaker 1: to strength. 181 00:09:35,440 --> 00:09:37,960 Speaker 2: So it could be mid tier products that suffer the 182 00:09:38,000 --> 00:09:41,200 Speaker 2: most as people continue to buy the higher end stuff 183 00:09:41,600 --> 00:09:46,160 Speaker 2: and cheaper dupes or knockoffs. This is something Ben realized 184 00:09:46,200 --> 00:09:49,120 Speaker 2: at the trade show too, that even in hard times, 185 00:09:49,200 --> 00:09:53,160 Speaker 2: it's unusual for people to stop moisturizing entirely or go 186 00:09:53,320 --> 00:09:57,880 Speaker 2: gray instead. Big beauty brands and solo stylists alike are 187 00:09:57,880 --> 00:10:03,240 Speaker 2: noticing consumers making shifts, spacing out their appointments, buying smaller bottles, 188 00:10:03,520 --> 00:10:08,200 Speaker 2: and finding less expensive alternatives after the break who the 189 00:10:08,240 --> 00:10:11,800 Speaker 2: beneficiaries of these beauty industry shifts could. 190 00:10:11,640 --> 00:10:20,520 Speaker 1: Be beauty is discretionary, but I think to a lot 191 00:10:20,520 --> 00:10:22,679 Speaker 1: of us it feels a little bit less discretionary than 192 00:10:22,679 --> 00:10:24,120 Speaker 1: some of these other categories. 193 00:10:24,360 --> 00:10:25,640 Speaker 2: That's Janette Newman again. 194 00:10:25,760 --> 00:10:28,440 Speaker 1: We're talking about discretionary spending, meaning things that you don't 195 00:10:28,480 --> 00:10:31,040 Speaker 1: have to buy, but the lotion that you might use 196 00:10:31,080 --> 00:10:32,920 Speaker 1: every night feels a little bit more like a have 197 00:10:33,000 --> 00:10:36,280 Speaker 1: to buy than a piece of a skirt or a 198 00:10:36,320 --> 00:10:39,520 Speaker 1: T shirt. So that's one reason that it's actually quite 199 00:10:39,559 --> 00:10:41,960 Speaker 1: a resilient category in times of downturn. 200 00:10:42,320 --> 00:10:46,200 Speaker 2: So beauty spending is discretionary, especially when it comes to 201 00:10:46,280 --> 00:10:50,760 Speaker 2: services like massages and spa treatments, but it's also resilient 202 00:10:50,840 --> 00:10:54,480 Speaker 2: to economic shocks, and some products and services are more 203 00:10:54,520 --> 00:10:58,880 Speaker 2: resilient than others. Ben Steveerman says it's a dynamic that 204 00:10:59,000 --> 00:11:02,160 Speaker 2: showed up in paws downturns during the post nine to 205 00:11:02,160 --> 00:11:05,559 Speaker 2: eleven recession. Leonard Lauder Than, the chairman of the board 206 00:11:05,600 --> 00:11:09,840 Speaker 2: of Estay. Lauder famously shared that lipstick sales had spiked. 207 00:11:10,360 --> 00:11:14,840 Speaker 2: People kept buying cosmetics through the Great Recession too. Journalists 208 00:11:14,840 --> 00:11:17,800 Speaker 2: and economists have a name for the phenomenon. They call 209 00:11:17,880 --> 00:11:19,319 Speaker 2: it the lipstick effect. 210 00:11:19,720 --> 00:11:22,200 Speaker 3: The idea is that there are certain luxuries that people 211 00:11:22,920 --> 00:11:26,880 Speaker 3: stick with because it makes them happy and it's something 212 00:11:26,960 --> 00:11:31,200 Speaker 3: that is a relatively inexpensive way to have something that 213 00:11:31,320 --> 00:11:33,320 Speaker 3: gives you some pleasure. Just because we're in a slow 214 00:11:33,360 --> 00:11:35,240 Speaker 3: down doesn't mean everything slows down. 215 00:11:35,559 --> 00:11:39,520 Speaker 2: Lipstick wasn't exactly a COVID era winner, remember all the masks, 216 00:11:39,920 --> 00:11:43,640 Speaker 2: but the pandemic's economic disruptions made people invest in other 217 00:11:43,760 --> 00:11:47,679 Speaker 2: small self care luxuries like skincare, and now in our 218 00:11:47,760 --> 00:11:51,640 Speaker 2: current era of economic uncertainty, Janette says, data from Dash 219 00:11:51,679 --> 00:11:55,080 Speaker 2: Intelligence shows that a different set of beauty products are 220 00:11:55,120 --> 00:11:58,640 Speaker 2: having their own sort of lipstick effect, seeing their sales 221 00:11:58,760 --> 00:12:03,360 Speaker 2: increase as other slow down at home salon replacements. 222 00:12:03,720 --> 00:12:07,720 Speaker 1: Artificial nail sales are up about thirteen percent in March 223 00:12:08,000 --> 00:12:11,679 Speaker 1: versus February, and the growth has also been incredibly strong 224 00:12:12,040 --> 00:12:15,760 Speaker 1: year over year, and we're also seeing strong increases in 225 00:12:15,840 --> 00:12:19,280 Speaker 1: sales of color and bleach. So some signs that people 226 00:12:19,280 --> 00:12:22,480 Speaker 1: are doing some of these things at home rather than 227 00:12:23,720 --> 00:12:27,480 Speaker 1: going to salons with the same frequency. 228 00:12:26,480 --> 00:12:28,760 Speaker 2: And some of the people who've continued going to the 229 00:12:28,760 --> 00:12:33,400 Speaker 2: salon are choosing lower maintenance treatments. Industry analysts say when 230 00:12:33,440 --> 00:12:36,080 Speaker 2: it comes to hair dye, for instance, they're expecting to 231 00:12:36,120 --> 00:12:40,200 Speaker 2: see more natural roots, warmer hues, and fewer blondes. 232 00:12:40,720 --> 00:12:43,400 Speaker 1: There's a term called procession blonde, which I think is 233 00:12:43,520 --> 00:12:47,080 Speaker 1: maybe a TikTok term that people can kind of shift 234 00:12:47,280 --> 00:12:50,560 Speaker 1: the coloring of their hair to make it easier to 235 00:12:50,600 --> 00:12:52,840 Speaker 1: take care of. So if your roots start to come in, 236 00:12:52,880 --> 00:12:54,680 Speaker 1: you don't have to go to the salon within like 237 00:12:54,720 --> 00:12:56,880 Speaker 1: a week. You could wait a little bit longer, and 238 00:12:56,920 --> 00:12:59,600 Speaker 1: so that keeps your costs down. And these are different 239 00:12:59,679 --> 00:13:02,320 Speaker 1: theory that are kind of I think fun to debate. 240 00:13:02,400 --> 00:13:05,079 Speaker 1: Are these economic trends or just beauty trends? 241 00:13:05,160 --> 00:13:05,280 Speaker 3: Right? 242 00:13:05,280 --> 00:13:07,559 Speaker 1: Beauty trends kind of come and go. Are some of 243 00:13:07,600 --> 00:13:10,280 Speaker 1: the things that we're seeing because trends are just shifting 244 00:13:10,400 --> 00:13:12,600 Speaker 1: or is it that they're pushed kind of by the economy? 245 00:13:12,840 --> 00:13:13,160 Speaker 4: Right? 246 00:13:13,400 --> 00:13:16,840 Speaker 2: The at home nail kits might be cool and trending 247 00:13:16,840 --> 00:13:19,439 Speaker 2: on TikTok et cetera, in part because they're a little cheaper. 248 00:13:19,840 --> 00:13:24,960 Speaker 2: Exactly exactly, So, does a rise and do it yourself 249 00:13:25,000 --> 00:13:28,400 Speaker 2: manicures mean the market's about to crash? Does more at 250 00:13:28,440 --> 00:13:32,400 Speaker 2: home bleach mean recession hair is officially back? Well? Ben 251 00:13:32,440 --> 00:13:35,000 Speaker 2: and Jinette didn't go that far, but they both said 252 00:13:35,000 --> 00:13:39,319 Speaker 2: that in corporate earnings reports, conversations with sources, and cultural trends, 253 00:13:39,720 --> 00:13:43,440 Speaker 2: they are seeing recession indicators. And while none of these 254 00:13:43,480 --> 00:13:47,920 Speaker 2: consumer behavior shifts alone can predict the US's economic trajectory, 255 00:13:48,440 --> 00:13:50,880 Speaker 2: they do offer hints at what parts of the beauty 256 00:13:50,920 --> 00:13:54,960 Speaker 2: industry are best positioned to get through a downturn. Like 257 00:13:55,280 --> 00:14:00,200 Speaker 2: large multinational companies that operate several different brands, companies like 258 00:14:00,240 --> 00:14:02,320 Speaker 2: Lareel and Esta Lauder. 259 00:14:02,160 --> 00:14:05,280 Speaker 1: They have a lot of leverage to work with their 260 00:14:05,320 --> 00:14:08,480 Speaker 1: suppliers and for example, on their higher end products to 261 00:14:08,640 --> 00:14:09,360 Speaker 1: raise prices. 262 00:14:09,679 --> 00:14:12,480 Speaker 2: It could be tougher for smaller players, like some of 263 00:14:12,520 --> 00:14:15,960 Speaker 2: the people been met at the Beauty Convention, those salons 264 00:14:16,000 --> 00:14:18,959 Speaker 2: and companies that are less able to quickly rework their 265 00:14:18,960 --> 00:14:22,040 Speaker 2: supply chains to deal with new tariffs or adapt their 266 00:14:22,080 --> 00:14:25,800 Speaker 2: product offerings or scales of production based on consumer spending. 267 00:14:25,920 --> 00:14:28,240 Speaker 3: This is an industry that has been growing pretty strongly 268 00:14:28,320 --> 00:14:31,040 Speaker 3: coming out of COVID, and so you hope that some 269 00:14:31,080 --> 00:14:33,480 Speaker 3: of these businesses that started up, and there's hundreds and 270 00:14:33,480 --> 00:14:36,320 Speaker 3: thousands of new businesses have started up in this area, 271 00:14:36,520 --> 00:14:37,760 Speaker 3: you hope that they can survive it. 272 00:14:38,240 --> 00:14:41,760 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Intelligence has been running a survey of American consumers 273 00:14:41,800 --> 00:14:45,160 Speaker 2: over the past few years, and this January, almost half 274 00:14:45,200 --> 00:14:47,720 Speaker 2: of the one thousand respondents said they'd cut back on 275 00:14:47,880 --> 00:14:52,000 Speaker 2: other purchases before scaling back on beauty and personal care spending. 276 00:14:52,920 --> 00:14:55,720 Speaker 2: But that's actually lower than the number of respondents who 277 00:14:55,760 --> 00:15:00,160 Speaker 2: prioritize beauty spending in twenty twenty four and twenty twenty three. 278 00:15:00,440 --> 00:15:04,480 Speaker 2: In other words, after so many years of pandemic fueled growth, 279 00:15:04,960 --> 00:15:11,760 Speaker 2: peak beauty just might be behind us. Resilient but still discretionary. 280 00:15:14,000 --> 00:15:16,840 Speaker 2: This is the Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm Sarah Holder. 281 00:15:17,120 --> 00:15:20,040 Speaker 2: This episode was produced by Julia Press. It was edited 282 00:15:20,040 --> 00:15:23,360 Speaker 2: by Tracy Samuelson and Tanya Garcia. It was fact checked 283 00:15:23,360 --> 00:15:26,080 Speaker 2: by our editorial team and mixed and sound designed by 284 00:15:26,080 --> 00:15:30,400 Speaker 2: Alex Sugiura. Special thanks to Lindsay Dutch. Our senior producer 285 00:15:30,440 --> 00:15:33,800 Speaker 2: is Naomi Shaven. Our senior editor is Elizabeth Ponso. Our 286 00:15:33,800 --> 00:15:37,840 Speaker 2: deputy executive producer is Julia Weaver. Our executive producer is 287 00:15:37,920 --> 00:15:41,880 Speaker 2: Nicole Beamster. Bar Sage Bauman is Bloomberg's head of Podcasts. 288 00:15:42,360 --> 00:15:45,000 Speaker 2: If you liked this episode, make sure to subscribe and 289 00:15:45,040 --> 00:15:48,040 Speaker 2: review The Big Take wherever you listen to podcasts. It 290 00:15:48,080 --> 00:15:51,520 Speaker 2: helps people find the show. Thanks for listening. We'll be 291 00:15:51,600 --> 00:15:52,360 Speaker 2: back next week.