WEBVTT - Deutsche Bank CEO Talks Credit Markets

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio News. I am here with

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<v Speaker 1>Christian Saving, the CEO of Deutsche Bank, And before we

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<v Speaker 1>get started, I want to say we booked this weeks ago.

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<v Speaker 1>This was not necessarily booked to talk about the credit

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<v Speaker 1>issues that are emerging to stave off any concerns that

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<v Speaker 1>might be percolating out. But I do want to start

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<v Speaker 1>there this idea that this morning we're all focused on

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<v Speaker 1>what are we missing? Have things gotten too frothy and

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<v Speaker 1>have there been some issues of fraud or easy financing conditions?

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<v Speaker 1>Do you see that anywhere in your book?

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<v Speaker 2>Good morning, Liza, I know, actually not. I mean there

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<v Speaker 2>is a lot of volatility in the market. We have

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<v Speaker 2>seen that actually over the last weeks and months. Whenever

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<v Speaker 2>something is supposed to be the market is reacting. In

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<v Speaker 2>our books, I can tell you no, there is no

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<v Speaker 2>detioration we have. Actually, we are very confident with our

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<v Speaker 2>credit portfolio and that across the world, whether it's in Germany,

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<v Speaker 2>whether it's in Europe, whether it's in the US, in

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<v Speaker 2>the different asset classes corporate bank, private bank, and in

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<v Speaker 2>this regard, I think the market is reacting quite heavily,

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<v Speaker 2>but I think you always have to see it over

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<v Speaker 2>the long term, and so far, to be honest, I

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<v Speaker 2>see no credited.

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<v Speaker 1>Duration long term. Your shares are up more than eighty

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<v Speaker 1>percent so far this year, so a couple percent here

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<v Speaker 1>there is sort of you know, okay, it's tough, but

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<v Speaker 1>we can manage through it. I am just wondering though,

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<v Speaker 1>whether it's indicative of people's mood that people are looking

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<v Speaker 1>for a reason to sell because they're getting nervous about

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<v Speaker 1>how good things are getting and how far valuations have gone.

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<v Speaker 1>Do you see that with any executives and the confidence

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<v Speaker 1>that you're hearing from them in terms of what they're

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<v Speaker 1>seeking to do or how much they're extending to planning

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<v Speaker 1>to expand.

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<v Speaker 3>No, actually confidence is quite good.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, there's obviously always the risk in case in

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<v Speaker 2>case a recession would come, then obviously the confidence would

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<v Speaker 2>go down. You would also see then a situation in

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<v Speaker 2>the credit portfolio. But this is not a topic at all. Also,

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<v Speaker 2>in the whole week here in Washing, we haven't discussed

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<v Speaker 2>the topic of recession at all. People are seeing growth,

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<v Speaker 2>seeing employment. We talk a lot about what is happening

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<v Speaker 2>in Germany and in Europe and how we can actually

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<v Speaker 2>grow competitiveness, and the economic output. So therefore I wouldn't

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<v Speaker 2>say that people are concerned. Of course, the geopolitical uncertainties still,

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<v Speaker 2>trade discussions, other issues are also dominating, dominating the discussions,

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<v Speaker 2>but I wouldn't say that there is a concern of

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<v Speaker 2>the executives. We are watching the market, but there is

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<v Speaker 2>nothing out where I would say people are concerned of

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<v Speaker 2>a detailation given the.

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<v Speaker 1>Fact that there are so many uncertainties still outstanding. Are

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<v Speaker 1>you surprised by how much optimism you've been hearing.

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<v Speaker 2>Yes, because we have talked for the last two years,

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<v Speaker 2>given all the instabilities and uncertainties, when when is actually

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<v Speaker 2>a potential down downturn in the market's coming. But again,

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<v Speaker 2>there is a lot of liquidity in the market people.

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<v Speaker 2>We have seen it, for instance in the in the

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<v Speaker 2>second quarter when there was a stimulus program in Germany,

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<v Speaker 2>how much liquidity came to Europe. And you see that

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<v Speaker 2>people really want to deploy their money. And therefore, I

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<v Speaker 2>think you always have to see if there is a

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<v Speaker 2>slight decrease in market prices, liquidity immediately comes in again.

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<v Speaker 2>And therefore I'm still optimistic actually that we are not

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<v Speaker 2>talking about an overvaluation.

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<v Speaker 3>We have some stretch valuations.

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<v Speaker 2>No doubt, but I wouldn't say that the whole market

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<v Speaker 2>is overvalued.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's talk about Germany and European banks in general have

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<v Speaker 1>been on a terear this year, and it's been driven

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<v Speaker 1>by this idea that maybe there will be deregulation and

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<v Speaker 1>maybe there will be actual fiscal spending to support the region.

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<v Speaker 1>Are you seeing any actual tangible signs of deregulation that

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<v Speaker 1>you think could unleash, whether it's bank mergers, whether it's

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<v Speaker 1>just more dynamism in the European banking sector.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, at least we have toscussions.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, look, there are also some tangible items like

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<v Speaker 2>the delay in the implementation of fr to B. We

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<v Speaker 2>have also in certain national buffers. When it comes to

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<v Speaker 2>capital buffers, we have seen some movements of the national regulators,

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<v Speaker 2>but also of the ECB. I think we have a

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<v Speaker 2>constructive discussion with the ECB. We are obviously talking about that.

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<v Speaker 2>We as European banks, are demanding a level playing field.

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<v Speaker 2>We see the developments here in the US, we see

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<v Speaker 2>developments in the UK, and therefore I think there are

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<v Speaker 2>constructive discussions with our regulators, so there is some movement. Nevertheless,

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<v Speaker 2>I think It's not only about regulation. I think the

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<v Speaker 2>most important is how can we ensure that Europe over all,

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<v Speaker 2>but also Germany is actually increasing the competitiveness and growth,

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<v Speaker 2>and therefore we need to do more on the structural

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<v Speaker 2>reform SAT, which goes way beyond bank regulations. That is

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<v Speaker 2>actually the topic which we need to push for, because

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<v Speaker 2>at the end of the day, regulation is important, we

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<v Speaker 2>need a level playing field, but the most important is

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<v Speaker 2>the underlying growth, and therefore we need structural reforms in Europe.

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<v Speaker 1>Is that fiscal spending. Are you saying that you hope

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<v Speaker 1>that they increase it more and that you're already seeing

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<v Speaker 1>stimulative effects from that?

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<v Speaker 2>I suppose I personally think that the debt break alignment

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<v Speaker 2>and adjustments which we have seen in Germany was the

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<v Speaker 2>right step to do. But only doing this is not

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<v Speaker 2>the right thing. Just increasing debt is not the right thing.

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<v Speaker 2>What you need to do is in parallel work on

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<v Speaker 2>structural reforms that it makes sense for corporate's private individuals

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<v Speaker 2>to invest, and that has all about to do with

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<v Speaker 2>tackling the problem of energy prices in Germany, reducing bureaucracy,

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<v Speaker 2>making sure that we are doing bigger investments into infrastructure,

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<v Speaker 2>that the approvals for new investments are not taking that

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<v Speaker 2>long as it did before. All that needs to be done,

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<v Speaker 2>so aligning or just growing by a stimulus program will

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<v Speaker 2>not be sufficient. We need imperilel structural reforms, and there

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<v Speaker 2>I can see that actually the German government is taking

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<v Speaker 2>the first step.

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<v Speaker 3>So what about businesses?

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<v Speaker 1>How much are businesses in Germany moving away from places

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<v Speaker 1>like China in terms of sources of business? How much

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<v Speaker 1>are you seeing those fissures just in the companies that

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<v Speaker 1>you work with.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, it's the result already of the COVID.

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<v Speaker 2>I think after COVID people really thought far more about diversification.

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<v Speaker 2>We can see that German corporates, European corporates are very

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<v Speaker 2>active in diversifying their supply chains, their production chains, and

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<v Speaker 2>are also trying to invest more globally and less concentrated.

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<v Speaker 2>You can also see actually that business are confident actually

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<v Speaker 2>to really reinvest in Germany. You may have heard about

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<v Speaker 2>the initiative which is running in Germany, the Made for

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<v Speaker 2>Germany initiative, where more than one hundred corporates are actually

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<v Speaker 2>committed to invest over seven hundred billion euros in Germany

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<v Speaker 2>over the next three years. That shows actually there is

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<v Speaker 2>confidence in the business and at the same time that

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<v Speaker 2>corporals are really redistributing their supply chains.

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<v Speaker 1>Are you seeing any clients trying to shift away from

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<v Speaker 1>dollar exposure right now?

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<v Speaker 3>Look, there was clearly a trend in Q two.

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<v Speaker 2>About reallocation, but I wouldn't join the core of saying, well,

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<v Speaker 2>that is the end of the US dollar as the

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<v Speaker 2>reserve currency.

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<v Speaker 3>The US dollar will be the reserve currency.

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<v Speaker 2>But I think that a lot of investors actually are

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<v Speaker 2>trying to reallocate, and in particular with what happened in

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<v Speaker 2>the second quarter in Germany but also in Europe, you

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<v Speaker 2>could see a shift to Europe and that's actually the

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<v Speaker 2>momentum which we need to retain and where we need

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<v Speaker 2>to build on.

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<v Speaker 1>And this move away from the dollar has been largely

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<v Speaker 1>in derivative's markets. I mean, how much has that just

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<v Speaker 1>been on fire this year in terms of hedging any

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<v Speaker 1>exposure to the dollar not necessarily getting out of dollar

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<v Speaker 1>denominated assets.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, I think it's both. It's not only in the

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<v Speaker 2>derivative market. We really have seen real flows and therefore

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<v Speaker 2>or it has been it has been a trend in

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<v Speaker 2>Q two. It is a little bit reversing in Q three,

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<v Speaker 2>and therefore it is so important in particular for Europe

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<v Speaker 2>that they really continue with structural reforms. If this is

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<v Speaker 2>not going through, if we are not continued with structural reforms,

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<v Speaker 2>then obviously grows and therefore so the inflow in European

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<v Speaker 2>assets will not further increase.

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<v Speaker 1>How does that effect just whether there will be reforms

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<v Speaker 1>or not, How does that affect where you want your

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<v Speaker 1>footprint to be dominant? Right? Do you want to be

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<v Speaker 1>more in Germany? Do you want to be more in

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<v Speaker 1>the United States? Do you want to expand more in

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<v Speaker 1>one place or another based on your faith, hope, et

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<v Speaker 1>cetera that there will be reform in Europe versus what

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<v Speaker 1>actually is happening elsewhere.

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<v Speaker 2>Look for me, it is that from a bank's point

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<v Speaker 2>of view, the most importance is to be diversified, and

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<v Speaker 2>we as Deutsche Bank, have taking a clear decision to

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<v Speaker 2>be a global bank and to make sure that we

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<v Speaker 2>are not too concentrated in any one of the regions.

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<v Speaker 2>Of course, when you have your home market in Germany

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<v Speaker 2>with forty percent of the revenues, you have a great

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<v Speaker 2>interest that this country is growing, that you have the

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<v Speaker 2>right structural reforms, that fiscal stimulus is kicking in. But

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<v Speaker 2>at the same time, despite all the talks about the

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<v Speaker 2>end of globalization, globalization will not end. Globalization will be

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<v Speaker 2>different going forward, but that needs actually global banks with

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<v Speaker 2>local nohow and that is actually where we are focusing

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<v Speaker 2>in from a Deutsche Bank point of view, stronghome market,

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<v Speaker 2>but being an international player because what we see from

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<v Speaker 2>our clients, they would like to have the bank with

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<v Speaker 2>an international exposure, with an international expertise, and that with

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<v Speaker 2>a global network. And that's exactly what we want to be.

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<v Speaker 2>So diversified and a global setup is I think the

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<v Speaker 2>key to success.

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<v Speaker 1>Are you interested in any acquisitions or is this going

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<v Speaker 1>to be a very organic process going forward?

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<v Speaker 2>So very organic process. Look, I'm very happy with the

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<v Speaker 2>development which we have taken. You were just talking about

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<v Speaker 2>our share price. I think overall the bank has done

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<v Speaker 2>very well over the last three four years. The turnaround

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<v Speaker 2>has been completed and now it's really bringing the bank

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<v Speaker 2>from a ten percent hour to the next stage. And

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<v Speaker 2>all leavers for that are leavers which are sort of

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<v Speaker 2>say within our own hands. It's about a better capital management,

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<v Speaker 2>it's about focus growth, it's further about investing into technology

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<v Speaker 2>to get further efficiencies out.

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<v Speaker 3>All that is in our hands.

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<v Speaker 2>And as long as I have the chance to further

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<v Speaker 2>increase my return on equity with sort of say homework,

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<v Speaker 2>that is always the preferred option.

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<v Speaker 1>So not interested in any local banks that are nearby

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<v Speaker 1>that you might bring on your As.

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<v Speaker 2>I said again, if you can focus on yourself, if

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<v Speaker 2>you can improve your return on equity by applying this homework, honestly,

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<v Speaker 2>it's always the first option.

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<v Speaker 1>There's also a big question here about artificial intelligence and

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<v Speaker 1>how much it's going to alter the size of the staff,

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<v Speaker 1>the way of doing business going forward. Have you seen

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<v Speaker 1>any material changes or advantages from using and adopting artificial

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<v Speaker 1>intelligence of late that have really materially improved profitability or

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<v Speaker 1>decrease staff.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, we have many use cases and you can apply

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<v Speaker 2>that across the bank. And the interesting part is actually

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<v Speaker 2>it actually applies to revenues II, customer satisfaction, interaction with clients.

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<v Speaker 2>It applies to efficiency and cost management, and also it

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<v Speaker 2>applies to something which is very important for banks, control

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<v Speaker 2>and regulatory compliance. And in each of these three areas

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<v Speaker 2>we have seen great use cases. If you think about

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<v Speaker 2>also our research department, they started actually applying AI. If

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<v Speaker 2>you think about the precision of research reports, with the

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<v Speaker 2>help of AI got far better. Of course, that has

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<v Speaker 2>an impact in terms of the speed and turnaround of

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<v Speaker 2>research reports. Same actually in other areas when you think

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<v Speaker 2>about operations. The way we can apply AI. Now, the

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<v Speaker 2>really important thing is now that we have a structural

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<v Speaker 2>approach to all these use cases and that we have

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<v Speaker 2>a clear priority. Where do we prioritize it at first?

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<v Speaker 2>Because you can imagine that every body in this bank

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<v Speaker 2>wants to apply now AI, we need to have a

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<v Speaker 2>clear priority of investments. But I think it will be

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<v Speaker 2>a game changer going forward and it will be one

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<v Speaker 2>of the key leavers how to increase profitability of banks.

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<v Speaker 1>Christian Saving, thank you so much for being with us

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<v Speaker 1>this morning. Christian Saving there of Deutsche Bank, the CEO

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<v Speaker 1>here in New York, and John. It really is a

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<v Speaker 1>tale for the Europeans of looking to what levers can

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<v Speaker 1>be pulled going forward, given some of the concerns and

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<v Speaker 1>challenges facing the region.