WEBVTT - Episode 5: The Mule 0:00:15.356 --> 0:00:15.796 Pushkin. 0:00:20.276 --> 0:00:22.836 A few months ago, I asked my executive producer to 0:00:22.876 --> 0:00:26.036 download a bunch of online sports betting apps and open 0:00:26.116 --> 0:00:29.316 up accounts with them, partly because I live in California, 0:00:29.316 --> 0:00:32.436 where sports betting isn't yet legal, and Lydia Jane Kott, 0:00:32.476 --> 0:00:35.116 my producer, lives in New York, where it is legal, 0:00:35.916 --> 0:00:38.836 and partly because well, I just thought it would be 0:00:38.956 --> 0:00:40.756 kind of fun to see what would happen when you 0:00:40.796 --> 0:00:46.076 thrust someone like LJ into the sports gambling jungle, someone 0:00:46.116 --> 0:00:49.756 with exactly zero interest in sports and even less interest 0:00:49.796 --> 0:00:53.156 in gambling, someone who just hates the idea of putting 0:00:53.196 --> 0:00:57.356 money at risk. LJ is not a fan, and she's 0:00:57.436 --> 0:00:58.396 really not a gambler. 0:00:59.516 --> 0:01:04.396 So you know, once I log in, I see on 0:01:04.436 --> 0:01:10.036 my screen it's honestly a really overwhelming view of things. 0:01:10.556 --> 0:01:14.596 It's all blue, it says fandual sports book, and there's 0:01:14.636 --> 0:01:16.236 a ton of different options. 0:01:16.236 --> 0:01:17.596 So there's NFL, MLB. 0:01:18.076 --> 0:01:21.196 Let's take an example. Let's click on NC double a football. 0:01:22.436 --> 0:01:26.356 There's banners everywhere that are like, refer a friend, give 0:01:26.436 --> 0:01:30.436 fifty dollars, get fifty dollars, and then if you scroll down, 0:01:30.836 --> 0:01:33.956 it has different bets that you can do so, it says, 0:01:33.956 --> 0:01:34.996 for instance. 0:01:36.316 --> 0:01:38.516 College football odds. 0:01:38.596 --> 0:01:41.636 And then there's a list of NC DOUBLEA football games, 0:01:41.796 --> 0:01:45.076 and then it allows you to bet on different games 0:01:45.076 --> 0:01:46.036 and in different ways. 0:01:46.356 --> 0:01:50.276 Do you find yourself being nudged in any direction by 0:01:50.396 --> 0:01:54.796 the app? Does the way the information is presented to 0:01:54.836 --> 0:01:56.236 you lead you to some action? 0:01:57.196 --> 0:01:57.356 Yeah? 0:01:57.436 --> 0:01:57.676 Yeah? 0:01:57.676 --> 0:02:00.356 So like if I were to just open it and 0:02:00.436 --> 0:02:04.396 have no plan, it says like popular same game parlay 0:02:04.516 --> 0:02:06.516 bets is what I'm being nudged to do. 0:02:06.996 --> 0:02:09.116 Or bet on the Battle of the Birds on Monday 0:02:09.196 --> 0:02:09.396 in a. 0:02:09.476 --> 0:02:15.276 Football It's a kind of mission to enter this new 0:02:15.316 --> 0:02:17.636 world and look around without spooking the natives. 0:02:18.156 --> 0:02:19.476 LJ is perfect for it. 0:02:19.876 --> 0:02:22.116 I've sent her to interview people who should be extremely 0:02:22.196 --> 0:02:25.756 wary of any journalists. They're basically never wary of her. 0:02:26.316 --> 0:02:29.236 They just hander everything she asks for and more. Do 0:02:29.316 --> 0:02:30.036 you know who's playing? 0:02:30.676 --> 0:02:36.556 I guess the atl Falcons and Philadelphia Eagles. 0:02:36.836 --> 0:02:38.676 So I'm being nudged to bet on on that. 0:02:39.156 --> 0:02:41.556 Do you know who? Where the atl Falcons are based? 0:02:42.036 --> 0:02:45.836 Atlanta? Okay, you're trying to send me I do know. 0:02:46.196 --> 0:02:48.276 I do know my state abbreviations. 0:02:49.796 --> 0:02:50.796 Atlanta's not a state. 0:02:52.916 --> 0:02:56.276 Okay, that's Okay, that's a low blow. 0:02:56.396 --> 0:02:59.876 My god, that's a bridge too far. 0:02:59.956 --> 0:03:02.756 We can make fun of my lack of sports knowledge, 0:03:03.716 --> 0:03:07.116 we cannot just go into make fun of Liniogude for 0:03:07.196 --> 0:03:08.556 everything on this podcast. 0:03:10.036 --> 0:03:14.036 Before she'd even placed a single bet, FanDuel and DraftKings 0:03:14.276 --> 0:03:17.356 and all the lesser apps were spamming her so incessantly 0:03:17.396 --> 0:03:21.436 that her Gmail account became unusable. All these people she 0:03:21.476 --> 0:03:23.476 didn't know wanted her to begin her new life as 0:03:23.476 --> 0:03:27.116 a sports gambler as soon as possible, and they're so helpful, 0:03:27.556 --> 0:03:31.836 so kind, so relentless with their special offers. But LJ 0:03:31.956 --> 0:03:40.076 has been coy reluctant waiting for her jungle guide. Which 0:03:40.116 --> 0:03:41.236 books do you have set up? LJ? 0:03:41.876 --> 0:03:44.076 I have Fandol, DraftKings and. 0:03:44.076 --> 0:03:49.276 Fliff Rufus Peabody sports Gambler, whom we met last episode 0:03:49.396 --> 0:03:50.396 in Las Vegas. 0:03:50.796 --> 0:03:54.196 Do you have not like Bette Rivers or whatever I mean? 0:03:54.236 --> 0:03:54.956 I think at whatever? 0:03:55.436 --> 0:03:56.196 What are the other. 0:03:56.036 --> 0:03:56.756 Ones in New York? 0:03:57.036 --> 0:03:58.516 Bet MGM, Get bet MGM. 0:03:58.676 --> 0:04:00.676 Okay, they'll limit us very quickly, but they will be 0:04:00.756 --> 0:04:01.836 very easy to win out first. 0:04:01.916 --> 0:04:03.636 Okay, great, Okay, I'll download bet. 0:04:03.516 --> 0:04:08.236 And Jim Rufus has a problem. Both FanDuel and DraftKings 0:04:08.316 --> 0:04:11.716 heavily limit the amount he could bet because Rufus actually 0:04:11.796 --> 0:04:14.596 knows what he's doing, and Rufus's bets tend to win. 0:04:15.236 --> 0:04:17.436 So Rufus will be the brains and most of the money. 0:04:18.396 --> 0:04:20.076 LJ will be well. 0:04:20.756 --> 0:04:26.916 Her role has had many names, runner, mover, betting partner, 0:04:27.876 --> 0:04:29.236 also mule. 0:04:30.116 --> 0:04:32.356 I like mule mule. 0:04:32.196 --> 0:04:35.156 Sort of creates a picture in your head. Rufus loads 0:04:35.196 --> 0:04:37.876 the backs of his mules with cash and wax them 0:04:37.916 --> 0:04:39.596 on their fannies, and they saw her off into the 0:04:39.596 --> 0:04:43.796 marketplace and then returned to him, weighted down with even 0:04:43.876 --> 0:04:47.356 more cash. And how much do you imagine you'd be 0:04:47.396 --> 0:04:48.316 wiring to her? 0:04:48.916 --> 0:04:50.156 So I would say. 0:04:51.596 --> 0:04:54.636 I'd probably be wiring her maybe fifty grand, or send 0:04:54.636 --> 0:04:55.556 me fifty grand her way. 0:04:55.796 --> 0:04:57.796 So I don't want to be greedy, and I don't 0:04:57.836 --> 0:05:00.076 want to be foolish, okay, but I think it is 0:05:00.076 --> 0:05:01.596 a fun idea for me to have a little piece 0:05:01.596 --> 0:05:01.796 of it. 0:05:02.156 --> 0:05:07.076 So Michael, you want downside, yeah, okay, Cotly So LJ 0:05:07.276 --> 0:05:09.636 is the best deal, but she also well at the 0:05:09.716 --> 0:05:12.036 end of this, probably won't be able to bet her 0:05:12.196 --> 0:05:14.716 in her own name for very much money, more than 0:05:14.756 --> 0:05:15.956 maybe seventeen dollars for. 0:05:15.996 --> 0:05:19.556 The rest of her life. So that's the cost here. 0:05:19.956 --> 0:05:22.716 I'm willing that's it. Yeah, I'm okay with that. 0:05:23.436 --> 0:05:30.236 Okay, Ziel, I'll be a simple investor. I'll win or 0:05:30.316 --> 0:05:34.276 lose with Rufus. LJ will have big upside and a 0:05:34.316 --> 0:05:37.476 tiny bit of money at stay. Mostly, she'll be putting 0:05:37.476 --> 0:05:40.916 her reputation as a sports gambler at risk. By the 0:05:40.996 --> 0:05:44.436 time we're done, no sports bookie will ever take any 0:05:44.476 --> 0:05:48.716 real action from her ever again, or so says Rufus. 0:05:49.436 --> 0:05:50.716 How long do you think we're going to last? 0:05:51.116 --> 0:05:53.196 I really don't know. This will be interesting to see. 0:05:54.036 --> 0:05:55.716 But if we last forever and they just make like 0:05:55.756 --> 0:05:58.236 a lot of money, that would be the best case scenario. 0:05:59.636 --> 0:06:00.636 Yes it would. 0:06:00.836 --> 0:06:03.436 But the truth is, we just want to see how 0:06:03.476 --> 0:06:13.876 this market works. I'm Michael Lewis, and this is against 0:06:13.876 --> 0:06:18.876 the rules. We're all about characters and situations here this season. 0:06:19.356 --> 0:06:22.756 The fan is our character and sports gambling is our situation. 0:06:23.996 --> 0:06:27.156 Back when sports gambling was against the law, it was 0:06:27.196 --> 0:06:30.756 fairly easy to play sports bets. I know that sounds odd, 0:06:30.796 --> 0:06:33.076 but if you ask any serious gambler that tell you 0:06:33.116 --> 0:06:35.036 the challenge wasn't getting your bets down. 0:06:35.516 --> 0:06:39.756 It was finding smart bets to make. Now sports gambling 0:06:39.836 --> 0:06:40.516 is legal. 0:06:40.276 --> 0:06:44.276 In thirty eight states, and very weirdly, it's easier to 0:06:44.316 --> 0:06:48.156 find smart bets than to actually place those bets, because 0:06:48.156 --> 0:06:50.556 the new system doesn't want to maximize the number of 0:06:50.556 --> 0:06:53.756 sports bets that Americans make. It wants to maximize their 0:06:53.836 --> 0:06:58.756 stupid bets. The bets, as they say, with negative expected value, 0:06:59.676 --> 0:07:01.876 the bets that if you make enough of them, you're 0:07:01.956 --> 0:07:06.436 certain eventually to lose, and so any smart sports gambler 0:07:06.836 --> 0:07:10.956 obviously needs to adapt. At Pushkin Industries are here to 0:07:10.996 --> 0:07:22.676 help our jungle guide Rufus Peabody smart sports gambler now 0:07:22.716 --> 0:07:25.996 basically can't bet under his own name, or at least 0:07:26.036 --> 0:07:29.676 not very much. The DraftKings and fan duels don't want 0:07:29.676 --> 0:07:33.076 to take the other side of his action, so Rufus 0:07:33.116 --> 0:07:35.236 and other sharps have built these teams of people who 0:07:35.276 --> 0:07:39.316 do nothing but place their bets. The smart gamblers can't 0:07:39.316 --> 0:07:41.636 really afford to be too picky about their new teammates 0:07:42.276 --> 0:07:46.276 because the hours are long and the money's uncertain. In truth, 0:07:46.276 --> 0:07:48.316 it's hard to find people who are both broken enough 0:07:48.356 --> 0:07:51.876 and reliable enough for the job, and once Rufus has 0:07:51.956 --> 0:07:52.356 hired you. 0:07:52.836 --> 0:07:57.636 The relationship can become pretty impersonal. To Rufus. These mules are. 0:07:57.516 --> 0:08:01.676 Just names on a spreadsheet, a PayPal address on his phone. 0:08:01.956 --> 0:08:04.796 Some he's never met. Most of the bet sports on 0:08:04.836 --> 0:08:07.876 their own, usually badly. A few even think they know 0:08:07.916 --> 0:08:10.556 almost as much as Rufus, which is never a good sign. 0:08:11.836 --> 0:08:14.756 So LJ will be a different kind of mule for 0:08:14.796 --> 0:08:16.956 a start. She'll need a lot more breaking in than most. 0:08:17.916 --> 0:08:20.676 Okay, let's open the FanDuel app and kind of look 0:08:20.716 --> 0:08:21.676 at the navigation there. 0:08:22.156 --> 0:08:23.876 Their first sit down is just a dry run. 0:08:24.676 --> 0:08:28.076 The FanDuel app can be harder to navigate. It's considered 0:08:28.116 --> 0:08:31.076 the best app. There's like live scoring on it. I mean, 0:08:31.116 --> 0:08:32.876 I guess there is a fan tool as well. 0:08:32.916 --> 0:08:35.396 And then I have ten dollars. 0:08:35.916 --> 0:08:39.996 You have ten dollars. Amazing. LJ has ten dollars in 0:08:40.036 --> 0:08:43.596 her account. Rufus fixes that issue with a few clicks. 0:08:44.236 --> 0:08:47.316 He moves a few thousand more dollars into Lj's bank account. 0:08:48.036 --> 0:08:50.996 It's crazy how quickly you can like disassociate from like 0:08:51.036 --> 0:08:52.556 what these numbers, Oh yeah, their. 0:08:52.556 --> 0:08:53.556 Numbers in a spreadsheet. 0:08:53.636 --> 0:08:54.796 That's basically all it is. 0:08:56.396 --> 0:08:58.516 Rufus wants to start by checking out the lines on 0:08:58.596 --> 0:09:01.996 Adam Scott. LJ has never heard of Adam Scott. 0:09:02.436 --> 0:09:03.156 He's a golfer. 0:09:03.636 --> 0:09:05.556 Okay, So Adam Scott will win the tournament. 0:09:05.796 --> 0:09:08.196 Adam Scott tournament winner plus one seventy five. 0:09:08.476 --> 0:09:13.876 Oh wow, So I say we bet that. But let's 0:09:13.876 --> 0:09:16.036 see we know how much we can bet it for. 0:09:16.876 --> 0:09:18.156 Okay, So I'm in the right place, right. 0:09:18.116 --> 0:09:20.276 I'm going to click on this, click on the plus 0:09:20.316 --> 0:09:24.236 one seventy five worst case scenario where we're priming the account. 0:09:24.276 --> 0:09:27.836 Here, priming the account. It's what Rufus calls it when 0:09:27.876 --> 0:09:31.556 he intentionally places dumb bets. He usually does this with 0:09:31.596 --> 0:09:34.756 his new mules. It makes the gambling companies even more 0:09:34.756 --> 0:09:37.796 eager to take his future bets. Lose a bit upfront 0:09:38.036 --> 0:09:39.116 to win much more later. 0:09:39.916 --> 0:09:42.676 And let's see it, says ad stakes. So what if 0:09:42.716 --> 0:09:44.596 we tried it, we put it? How much did we deposit? 0:09:44.836 --> 0:09:45.476 Five thousand? 0:09:46.116 --> 0:09:46.556 Yeah? 0:09:46.636 --> 0:09:48.596 What if we tried to put it for three thousand dollars? 0:09:48.596 --> 0:09:51.396 We'll see if they take it? Can we do that? 0:09:51.516 --> 0:09:51.556 You? 0:09:51.556 --> 0:09:52.036 Okay with that? 0:09:52.436 --> 0:09:52.636 Yeah? 0:09:52.836 --> 0:09:55.836 I mean it's not I don't know, I. 0:09:55.156 --> 0:09:55.836 It's not my truck. 0:09:56.476 --> 0:09:57.116 What did they say? 0:09:57.236 --> 0:09:59.316 They said, oh, well, they'll give you two thousand, two 0:09:59.356 --> 0:10:01.036 hundred and twenty five dollars and fifty eight cents. 0:10:01.196 --> 0:10:03.156 Yeah, go for it. Processing. 0:10:03.236 --> 0:10:05.956 But okay, my bet has been sected. 0:10:05.996 --> 0:10:09.316 Good luck done. That's how we do it. 0:10:11.476 --> 0:10:14.556 And then when do we know, Well, well, no, on Sunday, 0:10:14.556 --> 0:10:16.676 I thought bet one. We'll have many more bets before then. 0:10:17.636 --> 0:10:18.916 All of this is currently legal. 0:10:18.956 --> 0:10:22.596 By the way, Rufus can still partner up with other gamblers, 0:10:23.076 --> 0:10:26.596 but it's massively irritating to the gambling companies who treat 0:10:26.676 --> 0:10:29.756 Rufus as a kind of cheater, a card counter at 0:10:29.756 --> 0:10:30.636 the blackjack table. 0:10:32.996 --> 0:10:35.036 But I don't think of him that way. 0:10:35.076 --> 0:10:39.076 He's actually figured out stuff about sports, about why things 0:10:39.116 --> 0:10:42.676 happen in sports that other people don't know. He's more 0:10:42.716 --> 0:10:46.476 like a smart stock market investor. He knows better than 0:10:46.516 --> 0:10:50.476 the market knows the right price for some bet. What 0:10:50.556 --> 0:10:52.916 kind of market refuses to let the smartest people in 0:10:54.076 --> 0:10:54.676 this market? 0:10:54.756 --> 0:10:58.476 As it turns out, and so here we are. LJ 0:10:58.676 --> 0:11:00.276 is actually useful to Rufus. 0:11:01.036 --> 0:11:03.836 It's mostly trust is kind of one of the biggest things. 0:11:04.476 --> 0:11:08.756 That's Tom Peabody, Rufus's younger brother, who runs the mule 0:11:08.796 --> 0:11:11.596 team and so spends lots of time looking for new 0:11:11.676 --> 0:11:13.756 mules to replace the ones who've been worn out. 0:11:14.836 --> 0:11:18.636 It's like wife, girlfriend, mother, like we've gone through my 0:11:18.716 --> 0:11:23.916 mom and dad's accounts, but generally friends and family, and 0:11:23.956 --> 0:11:28.076 then when you get past that, it's kind of other 0:11:28.116 --> 0:11:28.756 people that you. 0:11:28.796 --> 0:11:32.476 Trust, people like LJ, who, as I say, is a 0:11:32.476 --> 0:11:36.276 bit different as mules go. Because we asked Rufus and 0:11:36.316 --> 0:11:39.036 Town to supply her with nothing but smart bets, and 0:11:39.076 --> 0:11:40.436 that's not what they would normally do. 0:11:41.556 --> 0:11:43.956 If LJ were starting for us and we wanted to 0:11:44.076 --> 0:11:48.356 keep that account, we would probably bet ten to twenty 0:11:49.156 --> 0:11:54.116 bets right at post on NFL, college football, tennis, anything. 0:11:54.956 --> 0:11:57.716 We're happy to lose money in the short term to 0:11:58.196 --> 0:11:59.676 have some more account longevity. 0:12:01.116 --> 0:12:04.556 That's actually not how LJ plans to roll. She's going 0:12:04.596 --> 0:12:06.596 to just place these smart bets and see how the 0:12:06.636 --> 0:12:10.476 bookies respond. Her first was that two grand or so 0:12:10.516 --> 0:12:17.156 on Adam Scott. Adam Scott for Bertie at eighteen flew 0:12:17.196 --> 0:12:19.676 out of the flag. Adam Scott loses, and we're a 0:12:19.676 --> 0:12:33.116 couple of thousand dollars poorer. But our experiment is on, Hey, 0:12:34.116 --> 0:12:36.556 so tell me what's happened what's going on? 0:12:37.676 --> 0:12:40.876 Okay, So when I was in Rufus's apartment, I'll find 0:12:40.996 --> 0:12:44.196 great time. What I found difficult is then I left 0:12:44.276 --> 0:12:47.356 Rufus's apartment. I came back to the office and I 0:12:47.396 --> 0:12:49.196 was by myself, and it's like. 0:12:50.156 --> 0:12:55.116 Literally gibberish. He just texted me gibberish. 0:12:55.436 --> 0:12:56.036 Read it to me. 0:12:57.156 --> 0:13:00.836 Sung JM Top ten plus one ninety. This is in 0:13:00.916 --> 0:13:05.276 the top finished heading. Also Sung JM ties pay in 0:13:05.276 --> 0:13:06.436 full plus one sixty. 0:13:06.476 --> 0:13:10.556 Those are DraftKings. Also same bet SUNGJYM top ten plus 0:13:10.636 --> 0:13:13.756 one ninety at FanDuel, sorry about to take off. 0:13:14.516 --> 0:13:16.716 Turns out Rufus is doing all this from a plane. 0:13:17.396 --> 0:13:20.276 He just wired her these tens of thousands of dollars 0:13:20.276 --> 0:13:22.876 to use to bet. Now he's up in the sky 0:13:23.036 --> 0:13:25.036 somewhere completely out of touch. 0:13:25.876 --> 0:13:28.636 Sungday, I am top five ties pay in full plus 0:13:28.676 --> 0:13:32.156 five fifty DraftKings. Sunday I am top five under top 0:13:32.156 --> 0:13:35.756 finished heading plus seven hundred DraftKings. Sunday I'm top five 0:13:35.756 --> 0:13:37.196 plus seven hundred FanDuel. 0:13:37.316 --> 0:13:39.476 So I don't even know what sport this is. Is 0:13:39.516 --> 0:13:39.996 this golf? 0:13:41.636 --> 0:13:42.356 I think it's golf. 0:13:42.436 --> 0:13:47.476 Yeah, before I believe it's golf. 0:13:48.596 --> 0:13:50.156 Do you have any interesting golf. 0:13:51.076 --> 0:13:52.596 No, I've never watched golf. 0:13:52.996 --> 0:13:54.276 Do you know how many holes there are? 0:13:54.796 --> 0:13:55.196 Nine? 0:13:55.516 --> 0:14:00.836 Okay? Uh, actually eighteen, but that's okay. 0:14:01.196 --> 0:14:02.356 I thought I got that right. 0:14:04.436 --> 0:14:06.796 You can kind of see why I thought she'd be perfect, right. 0:14:07.596 --> 0:14:11.236 She's impossible to suspect of anything, a kind of baby 0:14:11.276 --> 0:14:15.916 faced assassin, the Steph Curry of podcasting, the bullet you 0:14:15.956 --> 0:14:19.676 never see coming until it's too late. But she does 0:14:19.796 --> 0:14:21.716 need to learn how to press the right buttons on 0:14:21.756 --> 0:14:22.596 her gambling app. 0:14:23.876 --> 0:14:25.436 Like after we get off the phone, I'm going to 0:14:25.436 --> 0:14:29.636 be placing one, two, three, four, five, six seven bets. 0:14:29.756 --> 0:14:32.836 And the fun thing about it also is that I 0:14:32.876 --> 0:14:34.756 don't understand at all what they are as of now. 0:14:36.316 --> 0:14:40.116 I'll probably be placing like ten another ten thousand dollars 0:14:40.196 --> 0:14:41.796 after we get off the phone, and I'll be sweating. 0:14:42.436 --> 0:14:46.236 One bet takes me about half an hour. It's genuinely 0:14:46.276 --> 0:14:48.196 really scary, Like I feel like I hYP prevent, like 0:14:48.196 --> 0:14:50.636 I get my I get really scared. I hypreventally. I 0:14:50.716 --> 0:14:52.756 peace around for a little bit and pretend I haven't 0:14:52.796 --> 0:14:53.956 seen it, don't. 0:14:53.756 --> 0:14:55.756 You aren't you kind of in a hurry to get 0:14:55.756 --> 0:14:57.476 the best down in case the line. 0:14:57.276 --> 0:15:01.236 Moves So I talked about this with Rufus like a lot, 0:15:01.316 --> 0:15:03.236 and he said that I'll always have at least a 0:15:03.276 --> 0:15:04.236 few hours. 0:15:04.636 --> 0:15:06.676 Actually, Rufus has told her she had a few minutes 0:15:06.716 --> 0:15:08.276 to get the bets down, but never mind. 0:15:09.716 --> 0:15:11.556 I always cried this morning because I was like, did 0:15:11.556 --> 0:15:13.516 I just lose five thousand dollars? 0:15:13.516 --> 0:15:15.476 And I realized I had just done the accounting one. 0:15:15.556 --> 0:15:19.636 I could not be worse for the stob. Yeah, the 0:15:19.636 --> 0:15:22.796 perfect Ye're the perfect mule. They're gonna They're gonna call 0:15:22.876 --> 0:15:25.796 you up to see if you were actually a sharp 0:15:26.156 --> 0:15:28.276 and they're gonna talk to you for like six seconds ago. 0:15:28.556 --> 0:15:33.276 There's no way she knows anything. I'm about to realize 0:15:33.316 --> 0:15:36.396 my first mistake. I sort of imagine that if the 0:15:36.396 --> 0:15:40.236 gambling companies got suspicious about Lj's bets, some human from 0:15:40.316 --> 0:15:44.076 DraftKings or fan Duel would call her up. Then LJ 0:15:44.196 --> 0:15:46.516 would do what LJ does and lull them to sleep. 0:15:47.516 --> 0:15:49.316 But it turns out the first she has to get 0:15:49.356 --> 0:15:53.476 past the algorithms, the programs that the sports gambling companies 0:15:53.556 --> 0:15:57.636 use to detect smart betters, and one of the things 0:15:57.636 --> 0:16:00.676 they scan for are people with a talent for placing 0:16:00.716 --> 0:16:03.316 bets where the odds that then move in their favor 0:16:04.276 --> 0:16:07.476 people who seem to be ahead of the market. Another 0:16:07.516 --> 0:16:09.636 thing they'd do is check to make sure you're a guy. 0:16:10.476 --> 0:16:13.476 At least that's what Rufus says. They are not a 0:16:13.476 --> 0:16:16.676 lot of female sports gamblers, and basically none who are 0:16:16.756 --> 0:16:21.116 laying obscure five thousand dollars bets on golf. I had 0:16:21.156 --> 0:16:24.436 imagined LJ as an ideal mule, in part because she 0:16:24.556 --> 0:16:28.316 so obviously didn't know what she was doing, and second 0:16:28.316 --> 0:16:31.436 because even when she knows exactly what she's doing, she's 0:16:31.476 --> 0:16:33.436 really good at allowing you to think that she doesn't. 0:16:34.516 --> 0:16:38.636 But this isn't how you fool the gambling companies. You 0:16:38.796 --> 0:16:41.356 fool them by finding mules who can play a role, 0:16:42.956 --> 0:16:44.036 people like Beckett. 0:16:45.036 --> 0:16:47.756 You basically want to find a way to portray yourself 0:16:48.196 --> 0:16:51.716 as close to being a problem gambler as possible. You know, 0:16:51.916 --> 0:16:56.396 I've been everything from an incredibly rich, entitled trust fund 0:16:56.396 --> 0:17:01.356 guy to a sort of a maniac commenting on every 0:17:01.396 --> 0:17:05.996 point scored in every basketball came, bemoaning his losses in 0:17:06.036 --> 0:17:10.636 the morning and begging for a redeposit as well. 0:17:10.796 --> 0:17:12.916 That's Beckett. It's not his real name. 0:17:13.836 --> 0:17:16.236 He uses his real name to make his bets, and 0:17:16.276 --> 0:17:19.036 so he doesn't want anyone to know it. We're also 0:17:19.076 --> 0:17:22.516 disguising his voice, and we promise to say nothing about 0:17:22.596 --> 0:17:25.636 him except that he's been a highly successful sports gambler 0:17:25.676 --> 0:17:29.396 almost as long as Rufe's Peabody. But Beckett's got a 0:17:29.436 --> 0:17:33.476 slightly different angle than Rufus. Rufus has been limited on 0:17:33.476 --> 0:17:35.596 the apps, so he gets other people to place his bets. 0:17:36.596 --> 0:17:39.116 Beckett becomes other people in order to place his own 0:17:39.116 --> 0:17:40.036 bets on the apps. 0:17:40.596 --> 0:17:45.476 You know, they're classified as recreational butt makers. They're not 0:17:45.556 --> 0:17:49.436 sitting there trying to figure out what the optimal line 0:17:49.476 --> 0:17:53.756 should be for each game. They're basically marketing and technology 0:17:53.756 --> 0:17:55.956 companies which happen to be in the business of gambling, 0:17:56.676 --> 0:18:01.556 and their strategy is to find players who they believe 0:18:01.596 --> 0:18:03.796 will not beat the house edge and then just get 0:18:03.796 --> 0:18:06.556 them to play as much as possible. So what they 0:18:06.636 --> 0:18:08.796 end up doing is something called steak factoring. 0:18:09.516 --> 0:18:12.116 Steak factoring is the apps figuring out just how smart 0:18:12.156 --> 0:18:16.036 you are and assigning limits. These limits change is the 0:18:16.116 --> 0:18:17.076 algoes watch. 0:18:16.876 --> 0:18:17.436 What you do. 0:18:19.436 --> 0:18:23.636 Once they realize that you are competent, they might give 0:18:23.636 --> 0:18:28.076 you a steak factor of ten percent, and they might say, okay, 0:18:28.196 --> 0:18:32.036 you are only allowed to bet five hundred dollars. Once 0:18:32.076 --> 0:18:36.916 they realize or believe you are incompetent, they might give 0:18:36.916 --> 0:18:40.516 you a steak factor of up to ten times the amount, 0:18:41.516 --> 0:18:44.916 so you might be able to bet fifty thousand dollars 0:18:44.996 --> 0:18:47.436 on something, but a new customer might only be able 0:18:47.476 --> 0:18:49.876 to bet five thousand on, and that a professional might 0:18:49.916 --> 0:18:52.876 only be able to bet five hundred dollars on. They 0:18:52.956 --> 0:18:56.316 sort of, you know, open the floor set once they 0:18:56.356 --> 0:18:57.836 realize that you're not good. 0:18:57.996 --> 0:19:03.596 And apart from raising limits on the incompetent, what else 0:19:03.836 --> 0:19:09.116 might they do to encourage the incompetent to practice their incompetency. 0:19:09.116 --> 0:19:11.996 I would perhaps a sign of the IP host to 0:19:12.076 --> 0:19:16.796 that person, and that host would offer them as soon 0:19:16.836 --> 0:19:21.476 as of inducements to continue betting, to continue depositing, to 0:19:21.516 --> 0:19:22.356 continue playing. 0:19:23.196 --> 0:19:25.836 Beckett's goal is to get those inducements and to get 0:19:25.876 --> 0:19:29.636 those really high limits, to get past the velvet ropes, 0:19:30.396 --> 0:19:35.276 to get himself into the same rooms with the dumb betters. Well, 0:19:35.356 --> 0:19:39.156 give me examples of how a professional gambler or an 0:19:39.236 --> 0:19:43.916 edge player would induce one of these companies to invite 0:19:43.956 --> 0:19:46.396 you into the vipre room and up your limits. 0:19:46.716 --> 0:19:51.756 Essentially, you would be creating bets that you know the 0:19:51.796 --> 0:19:56.676 sportsbook wants to see, and he would do them a 0:19:56.796 --> 0:20:01.796 volume that is high enough that you grab their attention 0:20:02.796 --> 0:20:05.956 and you get contacted and then bunce you're in the inside, 0:20:07.236 --> 0:20:08.716 you know good things happen. 0:20:09.156 --> 0:20:11.236 But once you're on the inside, wouldn't they spot that 0:20:11.276 --> 0:20:14.076 your behavior changed? You don't want to continue to play 0:20:14.156 --> 0:20:17.356 stupid bets, So how long or do they do? They 0:20:17.396 --> 0:20:19.316 tag you as dumb and then don't pay attention for 0:20:19.356 --> 0:20:19.756 a while. 0:20:20.316 --> 0:20:22.596 You know, it's a fine line. Some people are not 0:20:22.716 --> 0:20:25.396 very nuanced at it, and we'll expose themselves very quickly. 0:20:26.156 --> 0:20:30.316 But in general, you have quite a lot of leeway 0:20:30.356 --> 0:20:33.756 once you're in those programs, and you know there are 0:20:33.796 --> 0:20:36.076 things that you can do to not make your behavior 0:20:36.476 --> 0:20:38.596 as an advantage plan as obvious. 0:20:39.556 --> 0:20:41.716 Once you're in the VIP programs, you get to meet 0:20:41.756 --> 0:20:45.556 actual human beings. At the gambling companies, they invite you 0:20:45.636 --> 0:20:48.796 to the next game, They tempt you with special offers 0:20:48.796 --> 0:20:52.276 to bet. Sometimes they even give you money to bet, 0:20:53.196 --> 0:20:57.116 like actually let you make bets for free. In theory, 0:20:57.196 --> 0:20:59.956 these new companies are required to flag people with gambling 0:20:59.996 --> 0:21:02.956 problems and limit them, guide them to shrinks who can 0:21:02.996 --> 0:21:05.676 help them, and end the cycle of misery caused by 0:21:05.716 --> 0:21:10.516 gambling addiction. In practice, it seems not so much. 0:21:11.796 --> 0:21:15.556 I was developing my character as a very frustrated, losing 0:21:15.556 --> 0:21:19.836 gambler who keep throwing money in. One day, I sent 0:21:19.916 --> 0:21:23.876 this host a flurry of messages after some really heavy losses, 0:21:24.916 --> 0:21:27.756 you know, over the previous few days. I sent message 0:21:27.756 --> 0:21:32.076 off the message and the host called me absolutely exasperated 0:21:32.676 --> 0:21:35.436 and said, hey, man, look, look, I know you're really frustrated. 0:21:35.476 --> 0:21:37.516 I'm sorry you lost. Don't worry. I'm going to take 0:21:37.556 --> 0:21:40.916