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Speaker 1: This is WSV the Solid Verbals Friday News Broadcast. My

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Speaker 1: name is Ty hilden Brand. My co host is Dan Rubinstein.

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Speaker 1: As always, you give us a download and we will

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Speaker 1: give you the world.

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Speaker 2: Whose dog is that?

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Speaker 3: Is that?

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Speaker 2: Tie? Is that your dog or Bill's dog?

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Speaker 4: That's mine?

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Speaker 2: I'm sorry, this is live radio Tie. This is what happens.

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Speaker 1: R B A L L e r s dot com.

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Speaker 1: Go on out and check out the Patreon perks we

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Speaker 1: have to offer. Also going out to Solid verbal dot

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Speaker 1: com if you'd like to pick up one of the

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Speaker 1: few remaining shirts that we have available for purchase. These

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Speaker 1: stay Solid T and Finally, last, but certainly not least,

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Speaker 1: Solid Saturday dot com. That is the shortcut URL. If

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Speaker 1: you want to tune into our Saturday morning live broadcast,

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Speaker 1: you can do so Solid Saturday dot com every Saturday

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Speaker 1: eleven am Eastern Time courtesy of our YouTube channel. Before

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Speaker 1: we go any further down, three things to know this Friday,

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Speaker 1: LSU get stung. Derek Stingley out for the year after

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Speaker 1: foot surgery. Also Power five Cincinnati, the Bearcats by virtue

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Speaker 1: of their win last week and their excellence all season,

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Speaker 1: has catapulted up into the top five of the AP

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Speaker 1: Top twenty five. And finally, on your side. Bill Connolly

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Speaker 1: from ESPN longtime friend, joins us for the show to

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Speaker 1: talk about these topics and much much moral.

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Speaker 4: Let's dive right in.

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Speaker 1: Bill Connolly ESPN dot com, the purveyor of all things

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Speaker 1: sp plus and great college football content. We have talked

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Speaker 1: to you for gosh, it feels like a decade now, Bill,

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Speaker 1: how are you good?

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Speaker 4: And I think it might be more than a decade. Yeah,

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Speaker 4: Like I want to like tennis.

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Speaker 2: So okay, so you're before SPI Nation. I mean you're

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Speaker 2: doing rock am Nation, right, but you're also a football

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Speaker 2: Outsiders and that's that's a part time gig. Yes, it's

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Speaker 2: a part time gig. I think that's true because there

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Speaker 2: was back to the days of what F plus where

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Speaker 2: it was a super band.

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Speaker 4: Well I mean I think, I mean that's that continued

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Speaker 4: to go for a long time. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Oh man, I wonder, I wonder if I'm not

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Speaker 2: going to bring it up, if it's like a source

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Speaker 2: subject or like was there a big divorce? Was it

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Speaker 2: just everybody's like, Yeah, we're gonna do our own thing.

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Speaker 2: That's cool, and everybody's happy.

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Speaker 4: Like they're allowed to just like I said, you know,

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Speaker 4: do whatever with it. I mean it might still be up.

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Speaker 2: Well, but what happened to f plus well, No, I.

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Speaker 4: Mean I think it's still probably I think still maintains it.

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Speaker 2: Oh okay, it nice. Yeah, because I look at some

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Speaker 2: of Brian's work just in terms of FBI and points

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Speaker 2: per drive, which you also have in your formula. But

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Speaker 2: I think that sort of thing is fascinating for somebody

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Speaker 2: as dumb as I am. Points per drive is near

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Speaker 2: as advanced as I can get where I'm just like,

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Speaker 2: I get it. You're adjusting for tempo and you take

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Speaker 2: out garbage time. That's great. It doesn't explain everything, it's

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Speaker 2: not super detailed, but it's helpful, no, And I.

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Speaker 4: Mean being able to just adjust it in a couple

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Speaker 4: different ways per play per drive, and you start to

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Speaker 4: notice the teams that are better in one than the other,

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Speaker 4: and you can start to piece together why that might

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Speaker 4: be and the differences between Promo's per drive data and

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Speaker 4: then you know mine is still mostly per play. So

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Speaker 4: it is fun kind of getting to know that like

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Speaker 4: how data tells you a different story from you to you.

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Speaker 2: You met with was it Mike Gundhy years and years

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Speaker 2: ago and you had a conversation with him about how

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Speaker 2: he looks at numbers and he was like really interested

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Speaker 2: in drive data? Was that true?

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Speaker 4: Who was that?

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Speaker 3: God?

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Speaker 4: I can't say Gundhy and I spoke too much about data,

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Speaker 4: but I can't think of who the first coach I mean, well,

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Speaker 4: the first one that really stood out in like the

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Speaker 4: nine ten eleven is kind of range like many dias, right,

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Speaker 4: was kind of an early adopter in that regard, and

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Speaker 4: we had a lot of conversations through the year, so

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Speaker 4: that was pretty cool. I'm trying to think like the

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Speaker 4: order of him now has kind of been lost to

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Speaker 4: me a little bit, but it's been It's been interesting,

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Speaker 4: and I do think that compared to nine ten eleven

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Speaker 4: whatever we're talking about, the data literacy at the coaching

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Speaker 4: level is just one thousand percent better.

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Speaker 1: After a given week of games, Bill, how long does

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Speaker 1: it take you to update your sp plus rankings?

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Speaker 4: I have a couple of queer, a couple like well,

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Speaker 4: uh sql, you know, make table things. They don't run

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Speaker 4: as quickly as they should. And I need to figure

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Speaker 4: out exactly I need to streamline those a little bit.

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Speaker 4: So basically I got the data on Sunday morning, and

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Speaker 4: it takes two and a half two to two and

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Speaker 4: a half hours to crank all the way through. And

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Speaker 4: that's to update and you know, meld it together with

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Speaker 4: all the big master table that I have been going

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Speaker 4: back to like five and all that other stuff. But

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Speaker 4: basically I'll hit the button and then like two to

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Speaker 4: two and a half hours later, I'm able to to

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Speaker 4: crank out s P plus.

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Speaker 1: Is it Is it the same computer as O nine,

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Speaker 1: like a relic that you can't ever lose, or have

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Speaker 1: you actually tried to move this process to something new.

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Speaker 4: It is the the ESPN work computer now so nice. Basically,

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Speaker 4: anytime I think I got to do a bunch of

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Speaker 4: the the the general ESPN computer was not intended to

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Speaker 4: handle like you know, my SQL workbench and a couple

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Speaker 4: of other things, and so it takes a long time

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Speaker 4: to set up all the new data base on a

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Speaker 4: new computer. But that's how the process goes.

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Speaker 1: Okay, so you got to go to space and pull

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Speaker 1: it down and then do their updates, and it takes

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Speaker 1: two and a.

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Speaker 2: Half hours to get it. There's a special generator in

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Speaker 2: the backyard. Like all the offices in New York during

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Speaker 2: the hurricane, everybody's freaking out because of the servers. Bill's

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Speaker 2: got a server shed in the back that that triple hits.

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Speaker 4: Everything is doing, yeah, well, and actually it was amazing.

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Speaker 4: You know, this has nothing to do with me specifically,

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Speaker 4: but there's a new data source. You'll see if you

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Speaker 4: pull up a lot of the play by play, you know,

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Speaker 4: on school sites and whatnot, you'll see a new data source,

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Speaker 4: Genius Sports. I believe that wrecked like parsiers across the

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Speaker 4: nation because their data was just it was it's just

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Speaker 4: different and kind of weird, and I think they're still

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Speaker 4: trying to figure some things out. But it was amazing,

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Speaker 4: Like nobody knew it was going to happen. And right

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Speaker 4: the season starts and it's this new format and this

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Speaker 4: new whatever, and it's taken a long time to kind

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Speaker 4: of get the process going. It's still early in the

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Speaker 4: sea and still got kinks to work out.

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Speaker 1: So Bill. The biggest games of the weekend in Week

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Speaker 1: six obviously Penn State Iowa Red River shootout between Oklahoma

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Speaker 1: and Texas. There are a multitude of games that are

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Speaker 1: interesting on about a thousand different levels. From your perspective

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Speaker 1: as somebody who's obviously a college football super fan, from

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Speaker 1: your perspective as somebody who's pretty deep in these numbers,

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Speaker 1: is there one matchup to you that is more interesting

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Speaker 1: than the others?

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Speaker 4: Well, I mean it's hard not to say Iowa Penn State, right,

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Speaker 4: I mean that is Oh, I mean obviously, oh you,

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Speaker 4: Texas is big. It's the biggest Syracuse Wake Forest game

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Speaker 4: in the history of college football.

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Speaker 2: I have a soundboard sound that's how silly. But it's

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Speaker 2: a big game.

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Speaker 4: It's a very big game, but it is. It's hard

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Speaker 4: not to say Penn State Iowa because I mean number one,

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Speaker 4: Like anything involving Iowa is just super interesting because they

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Speaker 4: don't change and you can't solve them. They get better

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Speaker 4: at being Iowa in a given year. Like they were

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Speaker 4: always good on defense, zone defense. If they had a

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Speaker 4: good pass rush, maybe they'd rank a little higher. Usually

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Speaker 4: averaged out in like the twenties. In my defensive sp

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Speaker 4: plus recings, they jump to like sixth in twenty nineteen

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Speaker 4: and then second last year, another fourth, And that's even

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Speaker 4: kind of filtering out the fact that you know, they

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Speaker 4: probably reeled in a few too many of those interceptions

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Speaker 4: than would be you know, the national average, so to speak.

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Speaker 4: So they've probably been a little lucky. It doesn't matter.

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Speaker 4: They're fourth in defensive s P plus, they're awesome defensively,

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Speaker 4: and they do the same thing they've always done.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. No, it's and I felt like I picked Penn

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Speaker 2: State this weekend just because I worry that that offense

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Speaker 2: is going to have to play in a game where

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Speaker 2: they are going to have to single handedly generate the

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Speaker 2: points needed to beat a really good or at least

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Speaker 2: good Penn State team, right, And I feel terrible because

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Speaker 2: the strongest thing in the game has been in the

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Speaker 2: game in this matchup is Iowa's defense and their ability

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Speaker 2: to force turnovers and turn short fields into points. It's

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Speaker 2: the clear most impressive thing. Is that something that is

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Speaker 2: And I know you talked a lot about the randomness

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Speaker 2: of turnovers? Is that a sustainable action plan?

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Speaker 4: Well, the way I've always tried to put it, or

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Speaker 4: not always, but the way I've tried to hone my

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Speaker 4: when I'm talking about turnovers, it's basically there is There

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Speaker 4: is absolutely lucky involved, but you still have some control over,

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Speaker 4: the turnover opportunities, the number, you know, the things you

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Speaker 4: do to get into passing lanes, to get hands on passes,

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Speaker 4: whether you keep your your hands all those passes or not,

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Speaker 4: you can still what you know that is a quality thing.

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Speaker 4: The number of potential turno expected turnovers that you have

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Speaker 4: is a thing. It's just that you know, sometimes those

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Speaker 4: numbers still kind of get screwy, Like you can force

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Speaker 4: if you're good at rushing the pass, or you're probably

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Speaker 4: going to be more likely to create more fumbles or

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Speaker 4: force more fumbles on average, But if you recover eighty

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Speaker 4: percent of those, that's still kind of lucky. Same kind

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Speaker 4: of deal so with Iowa right now, with Way Actually,

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Speaker 4: for my Friday column, I looked into wake Fores like

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Speaker 4: I feel bad, like I there are a couple of

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Speaker 4: wake Forest fans who I really enjoy interacting with, and

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Speaker 4: my nemhborts just hate wake Forest, just never ever like

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Speaker 4: wake Forest. Part of that is because they are one

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Speaker 4: of the few teams in the country kind of like

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Speaker 4: a Northwestern where they do seem to win an above

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Speaker 4: average number of close games. They're kind of the anti

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Speaker 4: Nebraska in that regard. They're like sixteen and nine and

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Speaker 4: one score games over the last whatever it was, five

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Speaker 4: years or so. So that's all I mean. That is

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Speaker 4: something that I would love to be able to account

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Speaker 4: for better, but it's so statistically unsound to do so

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Speaker 4: that I don't but like wake Forest right now. Also,

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Speaker 4: they're expected turnover margins like plus one point two, so

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Speaker 4: they create more of those chances than their opponents. Their

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Speaker 4: actual turnover margin is plus seven, and that's probably not

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Speaker 4: going to keep up. So that's kind of how I

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Speaker 4: define it. I was obviously the clear example here. They

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Speaker 4: do play zone defense, which I think actually kind of

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Speaker 4: helps your ratio keeps you keeps more guys looking at

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Speaker 4: the ball, so you're more likely to maybe have a

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Speaker 4: better intercept to break ups ratio and all that stuff.

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Speaker 4: But I still they're kind of on a hot streak

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Speaker 4: right now. I don't think they're going to continue averaging

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Speaker 4: whatever it is, like two and a half interceptions a game.

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Speaker 2: There's a scene in The Royal Tenant Bombs. I believe

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Speaker 2: the kid's name is Dudley who sees shapes and figures.

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Speaker 2: I don't know if you've seen The Royal ten and

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Speaker 2: Bombs that this reverence last.

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Speaker 4: Like, yeah, eighteen years ago.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, yeah, Okay, So there's a doctor looking the

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Speaker 2: way that he's trying to replicate a puzzle and he's

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Speaker 2: just he's just totally off, and he goes, oh my god,

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Speaker 2: how fascinating, how bizarre? Is there a conference where I

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Speaker 2: don't care if it's numbers, I don't care if it's

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Speaker 2: your own viewpoint where you're just like, nothing actually makes

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Speaker 2: sense week to week. Is there that conference where you're

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Speaker 2: just like, it's it's a feudal exercise to try to

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Speaker 2: explain who's good, who's bad, who might be good, who

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Speaker 2: might be bad, who might be excellent, who might be

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Speaker 2: briefly excellent? Like, is there a conference it just is

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Speaker 2: delightfully nonsensical Through five.

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Speaker 4: Weeks, Through four weeks, I had looked into that a

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Speaker 4: little bit just in terms of like s P plus projections,

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Speaker 4: like how well is it doing per conference, because like

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Speaker 4: it was it at a just like a nearly perfect

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Speaker 4: read on the SEC, although it's kind of under selling

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Speaker 4: Alabama and Georgia at the moment. It had a great

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Speaker 4: read on the MAC, it had a great raid on

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Speaker 4: the Big Ten. Like there are certain conferences where it's

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Speaker 4: just done, it's been great, like game to game, it's

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Speaker 4: great against the spread, all that stuff. Then there's the

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Speaker 4: ACC in the PAC twelve. Yeah, which you know it

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Speaker 4: has been this week to week it's been like, oh, well,

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Speaker 4: I guess these teams are good and nope, nope. Okay,

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Speaker 4: well not that it's these teams that Nope, no, that's

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Speaker 4: not it either. And it's still like trying to hone

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Speaker 4: in on like what the hell's going on with this conference?

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Speaker 4: And I do think, you know, over time it will

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Speaker 4: start to know a little bit more. But anytime you

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Speaker 4: step back and see that like Pitt's thirteenth in SP

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Speaker 4: plus in Arizona State's fourteenth with losses to Western Michigan

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Speaker 4: and BYU BYU, that SPPLUS doesn't even.

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Speaker 2: Like the great Todd Graham confounding connection.

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Speaker 4: Yeah well yeah, I mean so like just overall, I

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Speaker 4: do think we're still trying to figure out, not necessarily

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Speaker 4: how good those conferences are necessarily, but just like who's good,

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Speaker 4: Who's who's for real here? And I'm I'm I fear

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Speaker 4: that the answer for the ACC is Clempson and that's

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Speaker 4: going to be super annoying, but hopefully I'm wrong.

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Speaker 2: I like the idea of a new stat of like

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Speaker 2: who's the most uneven team in America? Who is like

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Speaker 2: the most bipolar? I know that's a loaded term, but like,

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Speaker 2: who is a team that is as likely to generate

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Speaker 2: a really impressive successful five play drive featuring explosion plays

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Speaker 2: and efficiency and like a three play three and out

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Speaker 2: negative four total yards? Like who is the most just

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Speaker 2: Jackson policy team? So who's the most bon Nix team? Yeah,

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Speaker 2: which is totally and it's Auburn.

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Speaker 4: I cant right, I mean yeah, they've been. I mean

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Speaker 4: you just think it back to what we know about

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Speaker 4: Auburn this year so far, like that you want to

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Speaker 4: talk about absolute nonsense. I mean, yes, Akron in Alabama

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Speaker 4: State not great at football, beating them one hundred and

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Speaker 4: twenty two to ten is still something that most teams

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Speaker 4: couldn't do. Losing that state whatever, it was a good performance.

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Speaker 4: Trying to lose really hard, trying really hard to lose

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Speaker 4: Georgia State. After Georgia State had lost by thirty three

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Speaker 4: at the Army and by forty two to North Carolina,

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Speaker 4: really considered that significantly and then went at night in

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Speaker 4: Death Valley with a bonex who basically threw about three

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Speaker 4: good passes, and they were incredibly memorable, wonderful passes, but

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Speaker 4: he was otherwise not good at all, and they still won.

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Speaker 2: What does an spplus like about Georgia and Alabama. You

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Speaker 2: mentioned that they're being under sold.

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Speaker 4: Well, I think it's just a conservatism mid season kind

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Speaker 4: of thing, like the best team can only kind of

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Speaker 4: stretch so far out ahead of everybody, right, So you know,

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Speaker 4: it projected both out both Arkansas and and Ole Miss

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Speaker 4: to cover last week. I mean it didn't have them

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Speaker 4: winning or anything, but it had them covering by two

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Speaker 4: or three or four points something like that, as Alabama

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Speaker 4: beating a and then by nine, Like it's they're still

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Speaker 4: the best teams, they're still ranked the highest. I just

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Speaker 4: think it's it's they're further out there than what s

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Speaker 4: P plus has really kind of accepted so far.

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Speaker 1: Mentioned LSU at the very top, they of course got

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Speaker 1: the news that Derek Stingley's going to be out, and

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Speaker 1: definitely he underwent foot surgery, clearly a big blow to

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Speaker 1: their secondary and that is already on a defense that

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Speaker 1: has to some extent underperformed so far this season. So

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Speaker 1: I wonder from your standpoint, just we mentioned the Auburn

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Speaker 1: loss from a week ago. Auburn comes in, they snap

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Speaker 1: a long losing streak in Tiger Stadium. We obviously had

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Speaker 1: the loss earlier in the year against UCLA, that one

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Speaker 1: was on the road. What is the state of LSU

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Speaker 1: at the moment? How do you see the rest of

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Speaker 1: this season shaking out for the Tigers? And more specific

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Speaker 1: to this injury, how does it make you feel to

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Speaker 1: know that Derek Stingley's not going to be out there?

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Speaker 4: What does that mean for this defense? Well, I mean,

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Speaker 4: let's put it this way. They, you know, from a

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Speaker 4: projection standpoint, without taking Stingley into account whatsoever, they're projected

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Speaker 4: underdogs in six of their last seven games. Now a

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Speaker 4: couple of those are tied. This is for s PEO plus.

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Speaker 4: Of course, it's like two and a half points to Kentucky,

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Speaker 4: one and a half to Arkansas, like three point eight

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Speaker 4: to A and M. So it's not like those are

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Speaker 4: basically toss ups. But they're still below fifty percent win

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Speaker 4: probability for all for all of those games, and obviously

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Speaker 4: a heck of a lot lower for like Florida and

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Speaker 4: Alabama and even Ole Miss. So I mean, if it

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Speaker 4: doesn't like click this week if they don't turn things

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Speaker 4: around and get a and not only beat Kentucky but

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Speaker 4: kind of find something sustainable. Like they're like six and

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Speaker 4: six is the best they can hope for at this point,

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Speaker 4: and that's if they win their toss ups. So it's bad.

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Speaker 4: It's it's it's bad. And again that was that's without

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Speaker 4: Stingley at all. Now, I mean, I don't you know,

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Speaker 4: when you lose a guy from a mediocre defense, maybe

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Speaker 4: it doesn't meet as much as if you lose one

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Speaker 4: from an elite defense. But they're just not They're not good.

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Speaker 4: They don't They just don't have that many standouts outside

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Speaker 4: Boute right now. And this could be this could be

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Speaker 4: a doom situation here over the next few weeks.

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Speaker 2: And they can't run either.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, no, And unfortunately for them, they don't have

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Speaker 4: Missouri on the schedule, so they can't fix themselves.

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Speaker 2: What happened there? What happened Like the Missouri like seem like, hey,

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Speaker 2: here's a promising, interesting squad after twenty twenty.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and I mean I never, you know, really bought that,

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Speaker 4: Like I was saying, just got six and six this year,

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Speaker 4: that's fine. There were like sixty something in s people's

347
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Speaker 4: last year, so I never really bought all the way

348
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Speaker 4: into being all that promising. Yet he's recruiting great, so

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Speaker 4: I mean it could be something down the line, but

350
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Speaker 4: this year it was just about go to a bowl,

351
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Speaker 4: and that suddenly looks a lot less likely. But Missouri

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Speaker 4: is running. It's the damnedest thing I've ever seen, just

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Speaker 4: in terms of when you're that bad against the run,

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Speaker 4: you picture like just getting blown off the ball and

355
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Speaker 4: pushed around, and they just seem to line up in

356
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Speaker 4: the wrong spot, like guys looking for guys to block,

357
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Speaker 4: but there's nobody there and there's a big gap open

358
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Speaker 4: for a running back to run through. So I do

359
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Speaker 4: wonder they just fired the D line coach. I wonder.

360
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Speaker 4: I mean maybe that was part of it right there,

361
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Speaker 4: But I do wonder too, Like if you stare at

362
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Speaker 4: type guys going from pro to college, you know they

363
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Speaker 4: have Steve Wilks is their defensive coordinator now former NFL

364
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Speaker 4: head coach coordinator. All that. If you say that a

365
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Speaker 4: guy going from pro to college failed, usually it's either

366
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Speaker 4: going to be because he hated recruiting, which I mean

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Speaker 4: I don't think applies here, but that or he was

368
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Speaker 4: used to having working with professionals and having unlimited work

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Speaker 4: hours and being able to create complicated plans and all that,

370
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Speaker 4: and then you go down to college and you're working

371
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Speaker 4: with nineteen year olds and you're making them think too

372
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Speaker 4: much and they can't run very fast or play very fast,

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Speaker 4: and that would certainly seem to fit here. If guys

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Speaker 4: are just like lining up in the wrong spot or

375
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Speaker 4: going to the wrong gap or whatever, then that's I

376
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Speaker 4: guess it's fixable technically, but they just seem to they

377
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Speaker 4: just seem lost right now.

378
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Speaker 2: It's coaching versus teaching, right, Yeah, didn't he.

379
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Speaker 1: Switch up the defensive scheme for Tennessee specifically, like change

380
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Speaker 1: the whole thing?

381
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Speaker 4: Yeah, I didn't see like percentages, but yeah, they're there

382
00:19:00,200 --> 00:19:02,720
Speaker 4: was a lot of what was it a three three five?

383
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Speaker 4: I think they were changing their look and all this stuff.

384
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Speaker 4: And I like the dude who had the ninety to

385
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Speaker 4: two yard touchdown run. It was one of those where

386
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Speaker 4: as soon as he got the ball, you're like, ohh

387
00:19:13,320 --> 00:19:14,879
Speaker 4: and you could just tell like, oh, this is a

388
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Speaker 4: ninety two yard touchdown the moment he touched the ball,

389
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Speaker 4: and that's not supposed to happen.

390
00:19:19,280 --> 00:19:21,639
Speaker 1: How many of the questions that have come through to

391
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Speaker 1: you via email, Twitter, sphere, et cetera, et cetera, have

392
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Speaker 1: been about Cincinnati's viability as a player.

393
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Speaker 4: Well, it was funny. We kind of joked about it

394
00:19:31,760 --> 00:19:35,360
Speaker 4: on Twitter, like as it became clear that they were

395
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Speaker 4: going to finish off Notre Dame and we were like,

396
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Speaker 4: here we go, I'm already tired of all the arguments

397
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Speaker 4: we're going to have. And then they started like just

398
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Speaker 4: referencing the arguments you had people in their lines. Don't

399
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Speaker 4: see how we could include them if they don't, you know,

400
00:19:48,040 --> 00:19:50,199
Speaker 4: it became the argument that I said I was already

401
00:19:50,480 --> 00:19:52,880
Speaker 4: tired of. So that's my fault, Like, don't even bring

402
00:19:52,920 --> 00:19:55,480
Speaker 4: it up because you're not going to enjoy what happens

403
00:19:55,520 --> 00:19:59,840
Speaker 4: when you do. But that is one of the mean

404
00:20:00,040 --> 00:20:02,320
Speaker 4: I think my stance on this is very clear, like

405
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Speaker 4: where I come in on the whole the mid Major,

406
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Speaker 4: the G five thing in general, like if we're in

407
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Speaker 4: with Cincinnati this year, like if we're not going to

408
00:20:10,800 --> 00:20:12,399
Speaker 4: do it, when are we ever going to do it?

409
00:20:12,440 --> 00:20:15,159
Speaker 4: And maybe it doesn't matter, maybe we'll eventually get our

410
00:20:15,160 --> 00:20:17,679
Speaker 4: twelve team playoff after we apparently stall longer than we

411
00:20:17,680 --> 00:20:22,159
Speaker 4: have any reason to in setting it up. You know,

412
00:20:22,200 --> 00:20:24,040
Speaker 4: maybe it won't. I guess it won't matter then, But

413
00:20:24,720 --> 00:20:27,760
Speaker 4: like PAC twelve isn't going to have a playoff contender

414
00:20:28,000 --> 00:20:31,560
Speaker 4: or participant, the ACC is not going to Big ten

415
00:20:31,720 --> 00:20:34,199
Speaker 4: might eat itself alive. We'll have to see exactly who

416
00:20:34,280 --> 00:20:37,600
Speaker 4: ends up with how many losses, Like if Cincinnati, who

417
00:20:38,200 --> 00:20:40,560
Speaker 4: beat Notre Dame but a thing that only Georgia has

418
00:20:40,600 --> 00:20:43,119
Speaker 4: done in the last four years when in South Bend

419
00:20:44,119 --> 00:20:46,760
Speaker 4: they won, they went up seventeen out, gaining about like

420
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Speaker 4: half a yard and a half per play, Like if

421
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Speaker 4: we're not gonna if that doesn't matter as soon as

422
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Speaker 4: they go to playing AC teams, we're going to forget

423
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Speaker 4: all about them. I just I mean it goes back

424
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Speaker 4: to the whole what the hell's the point thing here?

425
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Speaker 4: Like why are we even why are we doing any

426
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Speaker 4: of this if there's no way for them to make

427
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Speaker 4: it so we'll see.

428
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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, it goes back to of course, can

429
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Speaker 1: they get in should they get in right? And then

430
00:21:09,280 --> 00:21:11,959
Speaker 1: there's a whole second part of that conversation, which is

431
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Speaker 1: how would they actually do right? And that's probably not

432
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Speaker 1: fair because we've seen how other teams have quote unquote

433
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Speaker 1: actually done against the likes of Alabama. Yeah, and none

434
00:21:22,240 --> 00:21:25,520
Speaker 1: of them have done anything. So is there any reason

435
00:21:25,600 --> 00:21:28,000
Speaker 1: to think that this would follow a different trajectory for

436
00:21:28,040 --> 00:21:28,679
Speaker 1: the Bearcats?

437
00:21:28,960 --> 00:21:31,000
Speaker 4: Right? And it will be that'll be used against them,

438
00:21:31,080 --> 00:21:33,520
Speaker 4: like do you really think they can compete against Georgia?

439
00:21:33,680 --> 00:21:36,200
Speaker 4: Like do you really think Iowa can compete against Georgia.

440
00:21:36,240 --> 00:21:38,320
Speaker 4: Nobody's gonna ask that. They're just gonna They're gonna win

441
00:21:38,320 --> 00:21:40,119
Speaker 4: the Big Ten and get in, if you know, or

442
00:21:40,200 --> 00:21:42,199
Speaker 4: if they win the Big Ten that is, but we

443
00:21:42,240 --> 00:21:44,720
Speaker 4: saw last year. I mean, you never want to We

444
00:21:44,800 --> 00:21:47,000
Speaker 4: have no choice but to kind of comare look at

445
00:21:47,359 --> 00:21:50,200
Speaker 4: the mid major teams from like over a multi year

446
00:21:50,240 --> 00:21:52,920
Speaker 4: period because they don't get as many chances against the

447
00:21:52,960 --> 00:21:55,760
Speaker 4: power teams. But since them now matched up physically with

448
00:21:55,880 --> 00:21:59,080
Speaker 4: Georgia last year, like nobody's matched up physically with Georgia

449
00:21:59,080 --> 00:22:02,840
Speaker 4: this year. And like obviously once what was his name,

450
00:22:02,920 --> 00:22:06,440
Speaker 4: Hudson the tackle got ejected near halftime of that bowl

451
00:22:06,440 --> 00:22:09,159
Speaker 4: game last year. You know the offensive line, you know,

452
00:22:09,240 --> 00:22:11,959
Speaker 4: the backup came in and got kind of blown up,

453
00:22:11,960 --> 00:22:14,880
Speaker 4: and that is what it is. But you know, they

454
00:22:14,960 --> 00:22:18,480
Speaker 4: made as many plays as they allowed against Georgia and

455
00:22:18,520 --> 00:22:20,440
Speaker 4: they had the game won. They needed like one more

456
00:22:20,480 --> 00:22:22,080
Speaker 4: play in the fourth quarter and they would have won

457
00:22:22,119 --> 00:22:25,280
Speaker 4: the game. And that's different Georgia team. Although I mean

458
00:22:25,320 --> 00:22:27,000
Speaker 4: it was a team that had a healthy Jtdays and

459
00:22:27,119 --> 00:22:32,400
Speaker 4: say yeah and George Dickens, so you know that might

460
00:22:32,400 --> 00:22:34,760
Speaker 4: have been a better Georgia offense than what we currently see.

461
00:22:34,800 --> 00:22:38,240
Speaker 4: But like they competed physically and we know not a

462
00:22:38,280 --> 00:22:39,760
Speaker 4: lot of teams can do that. And then they went

463
00:22:39,760 --> 00:22:41,919
Speaker 4: to Notre Dame this year and stopped Notre Dame like

464
00:22:42,640 --> 00:22:45,680
Speaker 4: they're for real, They're they're maybe not a top three team,

465
00:22:45,680 --> 00:22:48,879
Speaker 4: they're definitely a top ten team, like Iowa would have

466
00:22:48,880 --> 00:22:52,480
Speaker 4: made the playoff in twenty fifteen, they were like fortieth

467
00:22:52,600 --> 00:22:55,600
Speaker 4: or whatever in sp plus. Like they've cleared the bar

468
00:22:55,680 --> 00:22:57,359
Speaker 4: they need to clear. And if they went out in

469
00:22:57,440 --> 00:22:59,320
Speaker 4: the AAC, which I mean the odds still don't really

470
00:22:59,359 --> 00:23:03,200
Speaker 4: say they will know every week is a loss opportunity,

471
00:23:03,560 --> 00:23:05,800
Speaker 4: Like if they went out in the AAC, like, I've

472
00:23:05,840 --> 00:23:08,320
Speaker 4: seen more than enough and we'll talk ourselves out of

473
00:23:08,400 --> 00:23:09,200
Speaker 4: it all the same.

474
00:23:09,400 --> 00:23:13,360
Speaker 1: Right if we zoom out for a second. Cincinnati obviously

475
00:23:13,400 --> 00:23:15,520
Speaker 1: is on the rise. They had a very high profile win.

476
00:23:16,320 --> 00:23:17,720
Speaker 1: One of the things that Dan and I have been

477
00:23:17,720 --> 00:23:21,840
Speaker 1: talking about a lot lately is teams that are undervalued,

478
00:23:21,880 --> 00:23:23,480
Speaker 1: if only because they got off to a bit of

479
00:23:23,480 --> 00:23:26,680
Speaker 1: a bumpy start. And he's got a theory that Vegas

480
00:23:26,720 --> 00:23:30,439
Speaker 1: is going to like overcompensate or be somewhat blinded to

481
00:23:31,359 --> 00:23:31,959
Speaker 1: some schools.

482
00:23:32,000 --> 00:23:32,200
Speaker 3: I don't.

483
00:23:32,240 --> 00:23:33,560
Speaker 2: Maybe Oklahoma is a bad.

484
00:23:33,359 --> 00:23:35,560
Speaker 1: Example, but they're one that kind of comes to mind

485
00:23:35,600 --> 00:23:38,400
Speaker 1: after a bit of a rocky start. Are there any

486
00:23:38,480 --> 00:23:40,840
Speaker 1: teams that jump out to you and looking through your

487
00:23:40,920 --> 00:23:45,080
Speaker 1: numbers that you feel are genuinely being undervalued at this point?

488
00:23:46,280 --> 00:23:48,399
Speaker 1: Maybe they've got things going in a good direction, but

489
00:23:48,840 --> 00:23:50,120
Speaker 1: the books have not caught.

490
00:23:50,000 --> 00:23:52,720
Speaker 4: Up to that yet. I think the books are starting

491
00:23:52,720 --> 00:23:55,719
Speaker 4: to catch up a little bit. On Ohio State. Yeah,

492
00:23:55,840 --> 00:23:58,320
Speaker 4: I don't think conventional wisdom is quite there yet. We're

493
00:23:58,320 --> 00:24:00,520
Speaker 4: gonna we're going to kind of ignore them until they

494
00:24:00,560 --> 00:24:02,439
Speaker 4: come back around and they beat Penn State or whatever.

495
00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:06,879
Speaker 4: But like I did say, like I think SPPLUS is

496
00:24:06,920 --> 00:24:09,120
Speaker 4: kind of undervalue in Georgia and Alabama a little bit.

497
00:24:09,160 --> 00:24:12,080
Speaker 4: But it's still probably noteworthy that Ohio State has now

498
00:24:12,119 --> 00:24:14,639
Speaker 4: tied Alabama like they were just like got one hundredth

499
00:24:14,680 --> 00:24:16,680
Speaker 4: of a point behind them for a second, and SPPLUS

500
00:24:16,680 --> 00:24:18,960
Speaker 4: after the last two weeks. And again I mean Akron

501
00:24:19,040 --> 00:24:21,000
Speaker 4: and records. You know, they have to do it against

502
00:24:21,040 --> 00:24:25,439
Speaker 4: real teams, and they will. But you know, I did remember,

503
00:24:25,600 --> 00:24:27,520
Speaker 4: you know, when we had our one of our espionation

504
00:24:27,720 --> 00:24:31,280
Speaker 4: shows back in twenty fourteen where we all just talked

505
00:24:31,320 --> 00:24:33,399
Speaker 4: to each other on Google for a while and then

506
00:24:33,760 --> 00:24:35,919
Speaker 4: uploaded it to the internet. It was it was. It

507
00:24:35,960 --> 00:24:40,080
Speaker 4: was heady times, yeah, but I do remember, like sometime

508
00:24:40,119 --> 00:24:43,439
Speaker 4: in October we were talking about a topic similar to this,

509
00:24:43,520 --> 00:24:47,000
Speaker 4: and I was like, I numbers really like Ohio State

510
00:24:47,520 --> 00:24:49,600
Speaker 4: and we were all like, wow, well, you know they

511
00:24:49,680 --> 00:24:53,680
Speaker 4: bear there, Barret's stinks, the Ostinviridginda tech like they don't

512
00:24:53,720 --> 00:24:55,560
Speaker 4: really have it. But they were winning every game by

513
00:24:55,640 --> 00:24:57,879
Speaker 4: like fifty and they did that for like six straight weeks,

514
00:24:57,880 --> 00:25:00,080
Speaker 4: and then we started to realize, like, oh, I I

515
00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:02,879
Speaker 4: think Ohio State might be really good and there's very

516
00:25:03,000 --> 00:25:06,280
Speaker 4: much a chance that that happens again. They still have

517
00:25:06,359 --> 00:25:08,359
Speaker 4: to I mean, even the number three team in the country.

518
00:25:08,400 --> 00:25:10,520
Speaker 4: I don't know if you get all the way through

519
00:25:10,520 --> 00:25:13,880
Speaker 4: the Big ten East slate without slipping up once. It's

520
00:25:13,880 --> 00:25:17,080
Speaker 4: a really really good division this year, so maybe that

521
00:25:17,200 --> 00:25:19,920
Speaker 4: knocks them out anyway. But if you're asking me, like,

522
00:25:20,400 --> 00:25:22,520
Speaker 4: outside of Alabama and Georgia, who would I trust the

523
00:25:22,560 --> 00:25:24,399
Speaker 4: most to beat any other team in the country in

524
00:25:24,440 --> 00:25:28,280
Speaker 4: a given week, I'd probably have a very boring answer.

525
00:25:28,320 --> 00:25:29,280
Speaker 4: In leon Ohio State.

526
00:25:29,680 --> 00:25:31,399
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, it's not about it. Especially I think Treyvon

527
00:25:31,480 --> 00:25:34,120
Speaker 2: Henderson is healthy and the defense.

528
00:25:33,760 --> 00:25:36,359
Speaker 4: Seems like at least organized now again, I mean, yeah,

529
00:25:36,440 --> 00:25:39,760
Speaker 4: like Rutger is an Akron, but they're not just suffering

530
00:25:39,800 --> 00:25:41,120
Speaker 4: stupid breakdowns anymore.

531
00:25:41,359 --> 00:25:44,520
Speaker 2: Yep, correct, And chie Morehead isn't calling place against them

532
00:25:44,680 --> 00:25:47,800
Speaker 2: with an Oregon offense that can't even throw the ball

533
00:25:47,800 --> 00:25:51,520
Speaker 2: down field that well and winning that game. I want

534
00:25:51,560 --> 00:25:53,600
Speaker 2: to stay on that topic, not Oregon, Please not Oregon.

535
00:25:54,160 --> 00:25:57,040
Speaker 2: I want to stay on the topic just of quarterback play,

536
00:25:57,240 --> 00:26:00,199
Speaker 2: because this has been a fascinating year. The guys we

537
00:26:00,320 --> 00:26:03,560
Speaker 2: thought would be in a group of top level quarterbacks,

538
00:26:03,600 --> 00:26:08,800
Speaker 2: including Djungalle including I guess Hudson card at Texas, I

539
00:26:08,800 --> 00:26:12,199
Speaker 2: guess including like Sam Howell and Spencer Ratler. Like it

540
00:26:12,200 --> 00:26:16,000
Speaker 2: has been a very unexpected year. Depending on your level

541
00:26:16,000 --> 00:26:18,920
Speaker 2: of enthusiasm for Bailey ZAPPI I guess early on going.

542
00:26:18,720 --> 00:26:19,480
Speaker 4: Into the year.

543
00:26:21,160 --> 00:26:26,000
Speaker 2: Do you attribute the lack of I like the word

544
00:26:26,080 --> 00:26:28,840
Speaker 2: killers at the top of this quarterback group. I mean,

545
00:26:28,880 --> 00:26:31,200
Speaker 2: all due respect obviously like Jake Hayner and Malik Wellis,

546
00:26:31,240 --> 00:26:34,000
Speaker 2: guys like that have had good seasons, Canny Pickett, But

547
00:26:34,800 --> 00:26:37,120
Speaker 2: I don't know what we believe in in terms of

548
00:26:37,400 --> 00:26:39,960
Speaker 2: this last decade. Every year has had three, four, five,

549
00:26:40,080 --> 00:26:42,960
Speaker 2: six guys where we're just like man video game numbers.

550
00:26:43,040 --> 00:26:46,200
Speaker 2: Week after week, they're changing how the position is viewed entirely.

551
00:26:47,400 --> 00:26:49,679
Speaker 2: Is there anything that you're looking at specifically to say, like,

552
00:26:49,960 --> 00:26:52,480
Speaker 2: I don't know, there's something in the water here.

553
00:26:53,640 --> 00:26:56,919
Speaker 4: Well, I think for a few years now, defenses have

554
00:26:57,000 --> 00:27:00,320
Speaker 4: slowly caught up. I mean that's just how this so

555
00:27:00,359 --> 00:27:03,760
Speaker 4: like the cycle is, it spins back around to the

556
00:27:03,800 --> 00:27:07,840
Speaker 4: defense at some point, and so the spread revolution or

557
00:27:07,880 --> 00:27:10,040
Speaker 4: whatever we're calling it. I think defenses just have a

558
00:27:10,080 --> 00:27:15,840
Speaker 4: better understanding of what you do to stop college football

559
00:27:15,840 --> 00:27:17,879
Speaker 4: offenses in twenty twenty one, and I think part of

560
00:27:17,920 --> 00:27:20,240
Speaker 4: that is what we've seen a lot against Oklahoma this year,

561
00:27:20,480 --> 00:27:23,399
Speaker 4: the whole you know, stop the air raid by dropping

562
00:27:23,400 --> 00:27:26,560
Speaker 4: aid into coverage and forcing them to settle. I think

563
00:27:26,600 --> 00:27:28,639
Speaker 4: we're seeing that a lot more broadly, so I do

564
00:27:28,680 --> 00:27:30,399
Speaker 4: think it's still evolving a little bit. But I think

565
00:27:30,440 --> 00:27:33,440
Speaker 4: the biggest difference I think the last couple of years,

566
00:27:33,440 --> 00:27:36,600
Speaker 4: we didn't really notice that defenses had adjusted all that

567
00:27:36,680 --> 00:27:41,480
Speaker 4: much because you had this uniquely wonderfully talented LSU offense

568
00:27:41,640 --> 00:27:44,800
Speaker 4: with first with a number one pick that just clicked

569
00:27:44,840 --> 00:27:47,679
Speaker 4: all of a sudden, that quarterback, plus Edwards Heelaer and

570
00:27:47,720 --> 00:27:53,320
Speaker 4: all these receivers Jamar Chase, et cetera. Because they were

571
00:27:53,520 --> 00:27:56,800
Speaker 4: so absurdly talented, they still had the ability to win

572
00:27:56,840 --> 00:27:59,280
Speaker 4: all their matchups and put up video game numbers. And

573
00:27:59,320 --> 00:28:02,879
Speaker 4: then last year Alabama even one up to them, you know,

574
00:28:03,000 --> 00:28:07,280
Speaker 4: with their ridiculous cast. But those guys left LSU, and

575
00:28:07,440 --> 00:28:11,800
Speaker 4: LSU is very average. Now those guys left Alabama, Alabama's

576
00:28:11,800 --> 00:28:14,760
Speaker 4: obviously not average, but they're still not quite as deadly.

577
00:28:15,040 --> 00:28:16,800
Speaker 4: I think it was just that there isn't that one

578
00:28:16,880 --> 00:28:20,240
Speaker 4: team that has all the talent and all the perfectly

579
00:28:20,400 --> 00:28:24,320
Speaker 4: matured weapons, and therefore the defenses are landing a few

580
00:28:24,320 --> 00:28:28,000
Speaker 4: more blows. Oklahoma, you know, their offensive line is probably

581
00:28:28,040 --> 00:28:29,960
Speaker 4: as mortal as it's been in a few years, and

582
00:28:29,960 --> 00:28:32,000
Speaker 4: their skill corp is still really good, but it's not

583
00:28:32,560 --> 00:28:35,320
Speaker 4: the best they've had and so suddenly you're able to

584
00:28:35,320 --> 00:28:37,800
Speaker 4: prevent big plays and force Spencer Rattler to throw seven

585
00:28:37,880 --> 00:28:40,680
Speaker 4: yard passes and all that, and so yeah, I don't

586
00:28:40,720 --> 00:28:43,240
Speaker 4: think it's like a sudden change. I know people talked

587
00:28:43,240 --> 00:28:46,239
Speaker 4: about lack of spring practice last year and how that

588
00:28:46,280 --> 00:28:49,960
Speaker 4: maybe affected the defenses more. I mean maybe, But I

589
00:28:50,000 --> 00:28:53,360
Speaker 4: do think this is just an ongoing trend that we

590
00:28:53,400 --> 00:28:56,640
Speaker 4: don't have a specific offense to exploit this year except maybe. Honest,

591
00:28:56,640 --> 00:29:00,360
Speaker 4: it's their skill. Corps is crazy and as soon is

592
00:29:00,400 --> 00:29:03,239
Speaker 4: you know in Stroud is getting more experienced and by

593
00:29:03,280 --> 00:29:05,400
Speaker 4: the end of the year they might be there. But yeah,

594
00:29:05,640 --> 00:29:06,960
Speaker 4: I think that's the biggest issue.

595
00:29:07,640 --> 00:29:10,880
Speaker 2: Who's ascending in a way that perhaps you weren't expecting

596
00:29:11,080 --> 00:29:12,360
Speaker 2: or your number. I don't I don't know how to

597
00:29:12,400 --> 00:29:14,840
Speaker 2: separate you. I just I almost treat as people us

598
00:29:14,880 --> 00:29:18,240
Speaker 2: like sourdough starter, just the thing that you're constantly feeding

599
00:29:18,480 --> 00:29:21,560
Speaker 2: that's making beautiful, beautiful things like who like Oregon State?

600
00:29:21,640 --> 00:29:23,480
Speaker 2: Are you a believer? Syracuse? Are you a believer?

601
00:29:23,560 --> 00:29:23,880
Speaker 4: Baylor?

602
00:29:23,920 --> 00:29:24,560
Speaker 2: Are you a believer?

603
00:29:24,640 --> 00:29:24,720
Speaker 3: Like?

604
00:29:24,760 --> 00:29:27,440
Speaker 2: There's all these teams who are I think out of

605
00:29:27,480 --> 00:29:33,080
Speaker 2: the limelight but clearly ascending. Where where is your belief

606
00:29:33,320 --> 00:29:35,240
Speaker 2: with that class of teams.

607
00:29:35,320 --> 00:29:37,360
Speaker 4: I do use my numbers as kind of a backup,

608
00:29:37,640 --> 00:29:39,480
Speaker 4: like do I sure, what do I think about this?

609
00:29:39,600 --> 00:29:42,240
Speaker 4: Or do I really believe this? And I'll fill in

610
00:29:42,280 --> 00:29:45,960
Speaker 4: with the numbers I do think I do cut. I'm

611
00:29:46,000 --> 00:29:48,040
Speaker 4: never I always root for the MAC team if they're

612
00:29:48,040 --> 00:29:50,960
Speaker 4: playing a P five team. So happy Western Michigan beat Pitt.

613
00:29:51,320 --> 00:29:54,720
Speaker 4: But that was, like from a numbers standpoint, a pretty well,

614
00:29:54,880 --> 00:29:57,920
Speaker 4: we'll call it unjust win. Like from a stat standpoint,

615
00:29:57,960 --> 00:29:59,800
Speaker 4: that was a game Pit wins most of the time.

616
00:30:00,160 --> 00:30:02,560
Speaker 4: And if Pitt had won that game, they would be

617
00:30:02,720 --> 00:30:05,680
Speaker 4: five and oh right now they're thirteenth and sp plus.

618
00:30:06,480 --> 00:30:09,320
Speaker 4: They looked fantastic against the Georgia Tech team that was

619
00:30:09,360 --> 00:30:12,240
Speaker 4: starting to look a lot better the last couple of weeks.

620
00:30:12,480 --> 00:30:14,240
Speaker 4: They beat a Tennessee team that might be a lot

621
00:30:14,280 --> 00:30:17,640
Speaker 4: better than we thought. Although you know, we'll see now

622
00:30:17,640 --> 00:30:19,840
Speaker 4: that they're not playing Missouri's run defense, We'll see how

623
00:30:19,880 --> 00:30:23,520
Speaker 4: that goes. But like suddenly you look at their resume,

624
00:30:23,680 --> 00:30:26,880
Speaker 4: I mean, New Hampshire and umasses whatever, but beating Tennessee,

625
00:30:27,240 --> 00:30:30,520
Speaker 4: beating Georgia Tech by thirty one, like that's kind of

626
00:30:30,560 --> 00:30:32,800
Speaker 4: impressive and if they were five and oh right now,

627
00:30:32,840 --> 00:30:35,440
Speaker 4: I think we'd really like people are already hopping on

628
00:30:35,480 --> 00:30:38,840
Speaker 4: the kindy picket bandwagon, but I think like we would

629
00:30:38,840 --> 00:30:41,600
Speaker 4: be looking at them very very differently if they if

630
00:30:41,640 --> 00:30:44,280
Speaker 4: there's a little more justice in the statistical world, I guess.

631
00:30:44,280 --> 00:30:47,400
Speaker 4: But the other team is Arizona State. I don't trust

632
00:30:47,480 --> 00:30:52,280
Speaker 4: Arizona State at all. Like they're crazy voll little and

633
00:30:52,320 --> 00:30:54,240
Speaker 4: they're not going to finish eleven and one like you

634
00:30:54,400 --> 00:30:57,040
Speaker 4: need to. But just week to week, they're terrifying and

635
00:30:57,120 --> 00:31:00,320
Speaker 4: explosive and crazy fun and I like those teams.

636
00:31:00,760 --> 00:31:04,080
Speaker 2: Okay, fair enough. Final question is just about this weekend

637
00:31:04,160 --> 00:31:07,320
Speaker 2: in general. You mentioned Wake Syracuse games either at the

638
00:31:07,320 --> 00:31:09,080
Speaker 2: top that you mentioned I mean you mentioned Penn State

639
00:31:09,120 --> 00:31:12,920
Speaker 2: Iowa as well, but around the sport both in terms

640
00:31:12,960 --> 00:31:17,240
Speaker 2: of your own curiosities and what sp plus is projecting. Like,

641
00:31:17,280 --> 00:31:20,680
Speaker 2: if you're making up your Saturday schedule, what should it include?

642
00:31:21,240 --> 00:31:25,400
Speaker 4: Well, South Dakosta State, Southern Illinois obviously, Go Jack obviously, clearly, Villanova,

643
00:31:25,520 --> 00:31:29,640
Speaker 4: James Madison. It actually really isn't a crazy week at

644
00:31:29,680 --> 00:31:31,200
Speaker 4: the FCS level. It's gonna be a lot of fun

645
00:31:32,320 --> 00:31:35,400
Speaker 4: beyond that, I mean, obviously, I mean LSU is a

646
00:31:35,520 --> 00:31:41,120
Speaker 4: very volatile situation right now. They really really need to

647
00:31:41,320 --> 00:31:43,520
Speaker 4: turn things around immediately or it's not going to happen.

648
00:31:43,560 --> 00:31:49,320
Speaker 4: So that's interesting. Michigan Nebraska, I mean yes, like Michigan

649
00:31:49,440 --> 00:31:52,480
Speaker 4: is back to like being on the doorstep again. And

650
00:31:52,520 --> 00:31:54,800
Speaker 4: I saw like FPI has them as like a thirty

651
00:31:54,840 --> 00:31:58,120
Speaker 4: four percent chance of making the playoff. And this is

652
00:31:58,160 --> 00:32:01,200
Speaker 4: a perfect situation for Nebraska to actually relax and not

653
00:32:01,320 --> 00:32:04,080
Speaker 4: have to like everything's not going to be a referendum

654
00:32:04,080 --> 00:32:06,560
Speaker 4: on them for a week and they can just relax

655
00:32:06,600 --> 00:32:09,880
Speaker 4: and play. And they're really solid football team, football team

656
00:32:09,880 --> 00:32:12,000
Speaker 4: that can't win close games to save their life, clearly,

657
00:32:12,520 --> 00:32:16,600
Speaker 4: but like play for play, very dangerous, very athletic team,

658
00:32:16,800 --> 00:32:19,440
Speaker 4: and this feels like a good opportunity for them to

659
00:32:19,480 --> 00:32:22,520
Speaker 4: go in and then you know, relax for once.

660
00:32:23,320 --> 00:32:25,160
Speaker 1: Do you have numbers on the Patriot League?

661
00:32:26,200 --> 00:32:26,360
Speaker 3: Hell?

662
00:32:26,480 --> 00:32:26,920
Speaker 4: Yes I do.

663
00:32:27,120 --> 00:32:29,920
Speaker 2: Oh my god, give me some PA now we get

664
00:32:29,920 --> 00:32:31,320
Speaker 2: some nuggets here, because we do.

665
00:32:31,520 --> 00:32:37,239
Speaker 4: Actually if you I've been sharing a spreadsheet with a

666
00:32:37,320 --> 00:32:40,440
Speaker 4: twenty twenty one sp plus with with SCS and D

667
00:32:40,560 --> 00:32:44,840
Speaker 4: two and D three rankings this year. Good hell, because

668
00:32:44,840 --> 00:32:46,840
Speaker 4: I figured out I can actually do a pretty serviceable

669
00:32:46,880 --> 00:32:49,040
Speaker 4: job using just points scored and allowed. Therefore I can

670
00:32:49,120 --> 00:32:55,440
Speaker 4: use it. But right now currently week six FCS Cross,

671
00:32:55,520 --> 00:33:01,880
Speaker 4: I think let's sort by conference. We're looking at holy

672
00:33:01,920 --> 00:33:04,800
Speaker 4: Cross did fall eighteen spots last week? They were up

673
00:33:04,800 --> 00:33:09,320
Speaker 4: to twenty second for a minute. Now you're fortieth, Fordham

674
00:33:09,400 --> 00:33:14,640
Speaker 4: is seventy sixth hm, let's see Lafayette is ninety is

675
00:33:14,760 --> 00:33:18,520
Speaker 4: ninetieth colegates one on one, Georgetown won ten buck now

676
00:33:18,600 --> 00:33:20,960
Speaker 4: one to eleven, and poor Lehigh which can't score a

677
00:33:20,960 --> 00:33:23,840
Speaker 4: touchdown to save its life one fourth?

678
00:33:24,400 --> 00:33:27,560
Speaker 1: Wow, how many points do you give Georgetown for playing

679
00:33:27,600 --> 00:33:28,200
Speaker 1: at home.

680
00:33:29,680 --> 00:33:32,240
Speaker 2: The Hornet's nests? That is multi sport field.

681
00:33:32,520 --> 00:33:35,400
Speaker 4: Actually, I've I need to play with that because I've

682
00:33:35,520 --> 00:33:37,360
Speaker 4: I got curious at like the D two or three

683
00:33:37,440 --> 00:33:39,520
Speaker 4: level if there was a difference, and it's really only

684
00:33:39,600 --> 00:33:41,280
Speaker 4: instead of like two and a half at FBS, it's

685
00:33:41,280 --> 00:33:43,120
Speaker 4: like one point seven. I think I still use two

686
00:33:43,160 --> 00:33:46,640
Speaker 4: and a half for for FCS, but maybe I shouldn't

687
00:33:46,680 --> 00:33:46,920
Speaker 4: do that.

688
00:33:47,680 --> 00:33:50,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's it's pretty it's still a pretty regional The

689
00:33:50,480 --> 00:33:52,640
Speaker 2: conferences are made up pretty regionally in a lot of

690
00:33:52,640 --> 00:33:55,200
Speaker 2: the smaller divisions, so it's not like traveling across the

691
00:33:55,200 --> 00:33:57,680
Speaker 2: country necessarily although you can move around in the big

692
00:33:57,720 --> 00:33:58,920
Speaker 2: sky a bit, you can move around.

693
00:33:58,920 --> 00:34:01,080
Speaker 4: I was about to say it, if you're like a

694
00:34:01,280 --> 00:34:04,440
Speaker 4: even slightly western school at the D two level, you're

695
00:34:04,440 --> 00:34:06,479
Speaker 4: gonna have to have like Washington to find games.

696
00:34:06,600 --> 00:34:07,720
Speaker 2: So yeah, that's true.

697
00:34:08,200 --> 00:34:10,239
Speaker 1: I have one final question for you, Bill, and it's

698
00:34:10,239 --> 00:34:13,480
Speaker 1: something that Dan and I discussed offline earlier this week.

699
00:34:14,000 --> 00:34:17,720
Speaker 1: You know, coming into the twenty one season, every preview

700
00:34:17,719 --> 00:34:21,319
Speaker 1: magazine folks such as yourself, I mean, we did it too.

701
00:34:21,960 --> 00:34:25,080
Speaker 1: Returning production, yeap was kind of the stat du joor

702
00:34:25,200 --> 00:34:28,880
Speaker 1: because everyone brought back so much. Super seniors and eighteen

703
00:34:28,920 --> 00:34:33,160
Speaker 1: starters was very much a commonality across all college football,

704
00:34:33,200 --> 00:34:36,480
Speaker 1: not just Power of five, but across the board. Where

705
00:34:36,520 --> 00:34:40,120
Speaker 1: is everyone? Why is nobody good? Why does it feel

706
00:34:40,160 --> 00:34:43,200
Speaker 1: like there are only two good teams and everybody else

707
00:34:43,680 --> 00:34:46,239
Speaker 1: is scraping and clawing, just trying to get to three

708
00:34:46,400 --> 00:34:49,080
Speaker 1: or four or five or anywhere inside the top fifteen.

709
00:34:50,040 --> 00:34:54,160
Speaker 1: Have we achieved maximum parody now because we've also achieved

710
00:34:54,200 --> 00:34:55,600
Speaker 1: maximum returning production?

711
00:34:56,160 --> 00:34:58,319
Speaker 4: I mean, I do think it is funny right now.

712
00:34:58,320 --> 00:35:01,279
Speaker 4: I mean, they're like thirteen teams that could technically get

713
00:35:01,320 --> 00:35:03,080
Speaker 4: a case to be number three right now and I

714
00:35:03,120 --> 00:35:06,520
Speaker 4: don't remember that happening all that often, but it is.

715
00:35:07,000 --> 00:35:08,520
Speaker 4: I mean, I do think that was part of it.

716
00:35:08,520 --> 00:35:11,200
Speaker 4: We didn't know exactly what the effects were going to

717
00:35:11,239 --> 00:35:13,279
Speaker 4: be heading into this season, but we knew that, like

718
00:35:13,400 --> 00:35:17,520
Speaker 4: in theory, that could even you know, the playing field

719
00:35:17,560 --> 00:35:20,080
Speaker 4: in a lot of ways. It could hopefully produce high

720
00:35:20,160 --> 00:35:22,480
Speaker 4: quality football, which I think if you ignore the quarterback

721
00:35:22,520 --> 00:35:26,200
Speaker 4: position it has and I do think that's part of

722
00:35:26,200 --> 00:35:28,760
Speaker 4: the deal too. Alabama and Georgia are a step ahead,

723
00:35:28,760 --> 00:35:30,839
Speaker 4: in part because the other teams that could keep with

724
00:35:30,920 --> 00:35:33,520
Speaker 4: them are had just enough change over at just the

725
00:35:33,560 --> 00:35:36,879
Speaker 4: right spots to hold them back. But it's funny going

726
00:35:36,920 --> 00:35:40,680
Speaker 4: back and looking at the top of the returning production list.

727
00:35:40,719 --> 00:35:43,040
Speaker 4: That was a big thing in the off season. You know,

728
00:35:43,160 --> 00:35:45,920
Speaker 4: so many teams above ninety percent of my formula and whatnot,

729
00:35:45,960 --> 00:35:48,239
Speaker 4: and you know, are they going to be able to

730
00:35:48,280 --> 00:35:50,319
Speaker 4: improve at a really high level or do you top out?

731
00:35:50,320 --> 00:35:52,160
Speaker 4: Do you hit your head on your ceilings, so to speak.

732
00:35:52,320 --> 00:35:54,640
Speaker 4: And looking at the top of the returning production rankings,

733
00:35:54,880 --> 00:35:59,000
Speaker 4: Miami was twelve. I hadn't really now, you know, obviously

734
00:35:59,040 --> 00:36:01,879
Speaker 4: Derek King isn't King, and you know, the injuries being

735
00:36:01,920 --> 00:36:04,400
Speaker 4: what they are They haven't really necessarily been that team,

736
00:36:04,440 --> 00:36:07,200
Speaker 4: but they that clearly has not helped them. But Rutgers

737
00:36:07,200 --> 00:36:09,680
Speaker 4: at ninth, maybe it's helped them a little bit. Arizona

738
00:36:09,719 --> 00:36:13,680
Speaker 4: State being third, it's helped. I think it's absolutely helped them.

739
00:36:14,440 --> 00:36:18,440
Speaker 4: Like Central Michigan, maybe Wyoming, maybe it's it's been very

740
00:36:18,520 --> 00:36:21,360
Speaker 4: hit or miss as to whether returning all that production

741
00:36:21,600 --> 00:36:24,160
Speaker 4: actually makes you better. Minnesota was seventeenth, hasn't really helped

742
00:36:24,200 --> 00:36:28,400
Speaker 4: them all that much now, but it has been interesting.

743
00:36:29,640 --> 00:36:32,760
Speaker 4: It's been there have been unexpected or just very random

744
00:36:32,840 --> 00:36:35,680
Speaker 4: effects as to who benefited from it, who really hasn't.

745
00:36:35,760 --> 00:36:37,880
Speaker 4: And yeah, next year we go back to normal and

746
00:36:37,920 --> 00:36:41,000
Speaker 4: none of it matters. I guess none of it matters. Again.

747
00:36:41,080 --> 00:36:45,759
Speaker 1: His name is Bill Connelly from ESPN dot com. Bill,

748
00:36:46,560 --> 00:36:51,040
Speaker 1: give us one interesting factoid perhaps that may only interest

749
00:36:51,120 --> 00:36:55,760
Speaker 1: you that you're going to be watching for this weekend, well.

750
00:36:55,640 --> 00:36:57,839
Speaker 4: The immediate and this is not a unique one, because

751
00:36:57,840 --> 00:36:59,839
Speaker 4: I got I saw that Felika and the Ape both

752
00:37:00,000 --> 00:37:01,520
Speaker 4: at it. But it's still stuck in my mind. That

753
00:37:01,920 --> 00:37:03,960
Speaker 4: was in nineteen sixty two, the last time we had

754
00:37:04,000 --> 00:37:08,239
Speaker 4: two Big ten, Top five Big ten teams by each other,

755
00:37:08,360 --> 00:37:11,279
Speaker 4: and neither was Michigan or Ohio State. That's the one.

756
00:37:11,880 --> 00:37:16,480
Speaker 4: That's I mean, it is interesting that, you know, Penn State,

757
00:37:16,520 --> 00:37:18,040
Speaker 4: our eye was going to be in really good shape

758
00:37:18,040 --> 00:37:20,040
Speaker 4: after this week, and Cincinnati is potentially going to be

759
00:37:20,120 --> 00:37:24,560
Speaker 4: number four after this week. And that's I don't know.

760
00:37:25,360 --> 00:37:28,920
Speaker 4: It's October everything, you know, nothing really happens until November.

761
00:37:28,960 --> 00:37:31,160
Speaker 4: But this is a very weird and interesting year.

762
00:37:32,160 --> 00:37:34,319
Speaker 1: Bill Connolly, thank you as always for your time. We'll

763
00:37:34,320 --> 00:37:34,839
Speaker 1: talk soon.

764
00:37:35,760 --> 00:37:48,719
Speaker 3: Thank you, all right, Dan, that does it for WSV

765
00:37:49,400 --> 00:37:50,040
Speaker 3: News Radio.

766
00:37:50,080 --> 00:37:53,080
Speaker 1: It's the Solid Verbals Friday news Broadcast. Don't forget to

767
00:37:53,120 --> 00:37:55,920
Speaker 1: go on out to Verballers dot com if you'd like

768
00:37:55,960 --> 00:37:58,480
Speaker 1: to check out our Patreon. Don't forget to go to

769
00:37:58,520 --> 00:38:00,960
Speaker 1: Solid verbal dot com if you'd like to get your

770
00:38:00,960 --> 00:38:03,080
Speaker 1: hands on one of the few remaining T shirts that

771
00:38:03,120 --> 00:38:05,520
Speaker 1: we have available, just look for the big old yellow

772
00:38:05,560 --> 00:38:08,560
Speaker 1: banner at the very very top of the screen. And last,

773
00:38:08,560 --> 00:38:12,040
Speaker 1: but certainly not least, check us out tomorrow morning Solid

774
00:38:12,120 --> 00:38:16,640
Speaker 1: Saturday dot com. We do a one hour broadcast starting

775
00:38:16,640 --> 00:38:19,600
Speaker 1: at eleven am Eastern Time on the YouTube channel Get

776
00:38:19,719 --> 00:38:21,560
Speaker 1: you Ready for all the games?

777
00:38:21,680 --> 00:38:25,960
Speaker 2: Dan, That's all I got. That's all I have for

778
00:38:26,160 --> 00:38:27,160
Speaker 2: that guy over there.

779
00:38:27,239 --> 00:38:29,480
Speaker 1: My good friend and Andrew Benstein, for myself Tie Hildebrant,

780
00:38:29,600 --> 00:38:32,960
Speaker 1: and for our guest of honor Bill Connolly form ESPN.

781
00:38:33,040 --> 00:38:35,040
Speaker 1: We'll talk to you all this weekend.

782
00:38:35,080 --> 00:38:37,240
Speaker 4: In the meantime, stay solid, peace,