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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Apple car Play and then Proud Auto

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Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you

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Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: On What is this second day of April, which means

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Speaker 2: we're almost five months from the last time something like

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Speaker 2: today happened, where President Biden and Chinese President Xijhin Ping

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Speaker 2: talked one on one. Of course, the last time they

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Speaker 2: did this was back in November at their summit in

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Speaker 2: person in San Francisco. Today it was just a telephone conversation,

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Speaker 2: and we just got the readout from the White House,

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Speaker 2: the White House statement saying that Biden and she had

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Speaker 2: a candid and constructive discussion, discussed AI risks efforts on

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Speaker 2: climate change, raised concerns over China support for Russia, and

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Speaker 2: raised issues with unfair tree policies as well in this call.

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Speaker 2: But let's get more details now. Ian Marlow covers national

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Speaker 2: security and diplomacy for US here at Bloomberg in Washington.

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Speaker 2: He is joining me now in studio. Ian, great to

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Speaker 2: see you as always. What else do we know went

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Speaker 2: down this morning on this phone call.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think one of the key things that's changed.

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Speaker 3: I mean, there's been a sort of laundry list of

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Speaker 3: things that they discussed. Counter narcotics stuff related to the

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Speaker 3: fentinyl crisis in the US, which is one thing AI regulation,

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Speaker 3: which is something they've talked about before. One of the

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Speaker 3: new things though, that they discussed was was Chinese support

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Speaker 3: for Russia's economy at a time where Russia's obviously in

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Speaker 3: Ukraine and that war has been dragging on and the

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Speaker 3: Russian economy has been more resilient than Western observers hoped

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Speaker 3: for when they initially slapped sanctions on. So that was

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Speaker 3: one thing that was brought up that I think is

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Speaker 3: maybe a little bit different from when we had that

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Speaker 3: conversation back in California, you know, a few months ago now.

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Speaker 3: And so that's something that's obviously a huge thing that

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Speaker 3: US officials are concerned about Chinese to Russia at this time.

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Speaker 2: Well, and it's one thing to raise those concerns, to

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Speaker 2: talk about them, but to what extent ian is this

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Speaker 2: talking for the sake of talking, Because they promised back

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Speaker 2: in November that they were going to talk more, communicate

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Speaker 2: more or is real progress made on calls like this.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so I think there's always a lot of work

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Speaker 3: that goes into these leader level calls and summits, and

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Speaker 3: you've seen a sort of a gradual parade of these visits.

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Speaker 3: I was on the first Blink and Secretary of Saint

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Speaker 3: Anthony BLINKLN trip to China back in June, which sort

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Speaker 3: of set off this you know, rolling procession of all

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Speaker 3: these cabinet secretaries going back and forth. But really, you know,

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Speaker 3: we've seen a little bit of agreement on you know,

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Speaker 3: agreement to keep talking. We've seen agreement to keep talking

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Speaker 3: on fentanyl. We've seen agreement to keep talking between the

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Speaker 3: two militaries, but there hasn't really been too much concrete

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Speaker 3: progress when it comes to say, China dialing back in

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Speaker 3: the South China. See, that was one of the things

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Speaker 3: they talked about on this call, you know, with tensions

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Speaker 3: between the China and the Philippines have risen lately, and

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Speaker 3: so none of these issues are solved. It's just I

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Speaker 3: think they feel like they should be talking rather than

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Speaker 3: not talking. And you know, before that trip back in

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Speaker 3: June and before all these these different summits, we were

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Speaker 3: in a much different place, a much more tense place,

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Speaker 3: And I think US officials are confident to some extent

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Speaker 3: that they've gotten to a better place, but none of

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Speaker 3: the fundamentals have changed, and I think we have to

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Speaker 3: be realistic about that, and I think there's always the

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Speaker 3: potential for something new, a sort of you know, spy

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Speaker 3: balloon two point zero, to upset the apple cart to

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Speaker 3: some degree on this, well.

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Speaker 2: It's a fair point. It seems that in a lot

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Speaker 2: lately within the US China relationship, it's one step forward,

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Speaker 2: two steps back because there's a spy balloon or someone

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Speaker 2: calls someone a dictator, or that kind of thing. You

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Speaker 2: talked about the rolling Cabinet secretary visits you of course

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Speaker 2: were with Blinkin back in June. He is expected to

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Speaker 2: go back to China in the coming weeks, and Treasury

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Speaker 2: Secretary Janney Yellen is actually expected to make a trip

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Speaker 2: of her own this week. I would imagine they're going

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Speaker 2: to reiterate a lot of the themes that we heard

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Speaker 2: were on this call today.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, exactly. I think, you know, with Yellen, it's a

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Speaker 3: lot of macroeconomic stability and sort of Chinese US cooperation

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Speaker 3: on the on the global economy. With with Blincoln's travels,

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Speaker 3: he sort of brings up the sort of laundry list

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Speaker 3: of things that China doesn't always want raised Taiwan, human rights,

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Speaker 3: detained Americans in China, so his visits tend to be

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Speaker 3: a little bit more tense. But again, we were at

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Speaker 3: a point where basically the Chinese and USI's were sort

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Speaker 3: of reading talking points to each other. And I think

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Speaker 3: that there's been enough dialogue over the past you know,

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Speaker 3: six to twelve months that I feel I think that

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Speaker 3: US officials feel they're in a slightly better spot where

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Speaker 3: they're slightly beyond reading talking points. They can try and

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Speaker 3: make some progress on these issues, even if fundamental differences

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Speaker 3: are going to be there. You know, it's it's a

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Speaker 3: weird relationship to sort of grapple with because you know,

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Speaker 3: fundamentally their competitors, you know, the US and China, but

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Speaker 3: you they want to be in a situation where they

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Speaker 3: at least don't have something throwing the relationship you know,

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Speaker 3: up and down every couple of months, which is where

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Speaker 3: we were sort of around the time Pelosi visited, you know,

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Speaker 3: to Taiwan.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, very good point. You talk about how the

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Speaker 2: US has to handle a relationship with a competitor carefully.

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Speaker 2: With adversaries certainly, but so too with allies certainly. Secretary

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Speaker 2: of State Anthony Blincoln has had his hands full, not

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Speaker 2: just with issues like China, but Israel as well. He

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Speaker 2: was on the call yesterday alongside Jake Sullivan, the National

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Speaker 2: Security Advisor, with their Israeli counterparts to talk about RAFA.

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Speaker 2: We know that they have also agreed to continue those

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Speaker 2: conversations moving forward. But does the US feel like it's

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Speaker 2: making tangible progress and influencing the decisions of the Israeli

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Speaker 2: government when it comes to their military operation in Gaza.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it sometimes seems like the US Israel relationship is

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Speaker 3: more tense than the US China relationship to some extent.

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Speaker 3: And again, like whereas you have fundamental competition on the

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Speaker 3: US's side, you have this sort of close partnership that's

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Speaker 3: been you know, decades and decades old, and this war

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Speaker 3: has just, you know, really turned all these things over

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Speaker 3: in the US Israel relationship. You know, the US is

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Speaker 3: under domestic pressure. Net Yahoo is under pressure of his

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Speaker 3: own from the right, you know, to take a harder

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Speaker 3: line on Gaza, on Hamas and all these things, and

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Speaker 3: so you have this really toxic situation where there's rise

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Speaker 3: and casualties in Gaza. No one thinks Israel shouldn't be

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Speaker 3: doing anything about what happened on October seventh. But you

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Speaker 3: end up with this situation now where the US has

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Speaker 3: been calling on Israel to take it easy when it

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Speaker 3: comes to the conflict, try and wind the conflict down,

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Speaker 3: try and strike a deal that will free the hostages

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Speaker 3: and get a ceasefire, and Israel just doesn't seem to

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Speaker 3: be listening. You get all these different situations where the

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Speaker 3: US sort of leans a little bit but doesn't want

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Speaker 3: to put too much pressure on Israel and send the

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Speaker 3: wrong message to Hamas. And so you know, I was

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Speaker 3: on Blinken's trip to Israel just the other week, and

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Speaker 3: the day we got there, Israel's right when government announced

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Speaker 3: that they were seizing new land in the West Bank.

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Speaker 3: And so this is something that sort of happens time

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Speaker 3: and time again. You've got signaling on both sides, You've

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Speaker 3: got domestic political priorities on both sides. Both sides need

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Speaker 3: to seem like they're doing something about the situation, but

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Speaker 3: they're at odds. And I think the US is confronting

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Speaker 3: a situation where they really don't have that much leverage

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Speaker 3: over Israel. They're giving aid, I feel I think they

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Speaker 3: don't feel like they can condition that aid and pull

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Speaker 3: it back, like the military equipment that they keep sending

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Speaker 3: to Israel, some of which is years and you know,

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Speaker 3: years in the making and won't be delivered till well

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Speaker 3: after this war is over, and the rest of it.

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Speaker 3: But it's a tense situation, and I think this meeting,

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Speaker 3: the fact that it was canceled initially, the in person

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Speaker 3: meeting was canceled and it was held virtually They're meant

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Speaker 3: to be holding an in person meeting, you know, in

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Speaker 3: the coming weeks. That's not a great sign of coordination

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Speaker 3: between two close allies. I think it's showing you the

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Speaker 3: tension that's underneath.

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Speaker 1: That at the moment.

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Speaker 2: All Right, Ian Marlow Bloomberg, senior reporter covering diplomacy and

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Speaker 2: National Security. Thank you so much for giving us the

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Speaker 2: latest today, and now we want to take a look

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Speaker 2: at how markets should be looking at all of these

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Speaker 2: different geopolitical situations. Joining me now, I'm pleased to say,

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Speaker 2: Terry Haynes, founder over at Pangaea Policy. So Terry certainly

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Speaker 2: there is no shortage of things to discuss on the

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Speaker 2: geopolitical front. But I would first like to get your

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Speaker 2: opinion on the US China relationship. She and Biden are talking.

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Speaker 2: They did so today for the first time since November.

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Speaker 2: Should should investors take any solace in that communication or

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Speaker 2: is there just too much tension in this relationship still

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Speaker 2: to not be hedging that kind of geopolitical risk.

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Speaker 4: Well, from my view, Kaylee, I think what ends up

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Speaker 4: happening here is that markets will tend to be kind

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Speaker 4: of over buoyed by this stuff. It's always good that

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Speaker 4: the leaders are talking. Everybody remembers the old Churchill line

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Speaker 4: that jaw jaw talk talk is better than war war.

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Speaker 4: But beyond that, I wouldn't read too much into it. Frankly,

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Speaker 4: it sounds from the White House like there's a laundry

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Speaker 4: list and a litany of the familiar concerns. So you

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Speaker 4: know they're talking. That's good. There's advantages for chi to

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Speaker 4: be talking. He's now put on a happier face with

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Speaker 4: the United States business leaders, and it's somewhat recently, so

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Speaker 4: it's somewhat to his advantage to do that. It's also

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Speaker 4: Biden's in Biden's best interest to be and to look

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Speaker 4: like publicly the engaged leader bringing up major United States concerns.

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Speaker 4: Beyond that, I'd point out a couple of things. One

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Speaker 4: is that there continues to be concerns about China's economy,

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Speaker 4: and that's at least part of the reason why Secretary

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Speaker 4: Yellen is engaging with the Chinese government on that. And

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Speaker 4: also there's an awful lot going on. When the White

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Speaker 4: House name checks support for Russia, you can be sure

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Speaker 4: that one of the things that's happening underneath that particular

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Speaker 4: surface is checking back and forth with the Chinese on

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Speaker 4: the next Western moves, which not only include potential United

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Speaker 4: States aid for Ukraine, but the idea that the United

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Speaker 4: States is going to the NATO and the G seven

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Speaker 4: are going to create funds and other sorts of vehicles

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Speaker 4: to support Ukraine in the overall monetary system. So the

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Speaker 4: United States will want that to be well understood as well.

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Speaker 4: So there's a lot of things going on here underneath

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Speaker 4: the surface. Frankly, I think to asswage tensions as much

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Speaker 4: as anything else.

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Speaker 2: Well, Terry, I'm glad you raised the issue of aid

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Speaker 2: to Ukraine, because obviously we heard from how Speaker Mike

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Speaker 2: Johnson over this past weekend talking about the idea that

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Speaker 2: that actually could be on the floor in the form

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Speaker 2: he envisions it, which potentially could include it being alone

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Speaker 2: rather than outright aid, potentially taking frozen Russian assets to

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Speaker 2: help fund Ukraine's war effort. Is this going to happen?

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Speaker 2: Is this something that could actually pass the House, the

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Speaker 2: Senate and get a signature from President Biden? Where would

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Speaker 2: you put the odds?

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Speaker 4: Well, Speaker Johnson is an optimist, but then if you're

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Speaker 4: in the Speaker's chair, you should be. Your job is

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Speaker 4: in part to kind of move the House as an

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Speaker 4: institution forward, and he's trying to do that, and that's

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Speaker 4: fundamentally what he's trying to do. I think what you've

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Speaker 4: seen in the last twenty four to forty eight hours

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Speaker 4: is kind of typical Washington blowback on the Speaker's proposals.

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Speaker 4: But what he means to do by this, frankly, is

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Speaker 4: start a serious dialogue in the House that ends to

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Speaker 4: some sort of conclusion. And if he can't get aid

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Speaker 4: in the traditional sense, he's going to talk about loans,

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Speaker 4: He's going to talk about seizing assets and using them

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Speaker 4: from Russian oligarchs and the like. He's going to use

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Speaker 4: everything he can in order to show forward movement on

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Speaker 4: Ukraine AID and Ukraine support. I think that's all to

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Speaker 4: the good in a geopolitical sense because it shows really

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Speaker 4: where I think the the pendulum has been on the

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Speaker 4: Ukraine for some time, which is kind of more supportive

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Speaker 4: of Ukraine, more optimistic. But he's got a long way

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Speaker 4: to go, and if he gets something through the House

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Speaker 4: by the end of April, I'd give him sixty sixty

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Speaker 4: five percent today on that. But that's optimistic, and he's

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Speaker 4: going to have to be talking to the Senate all along.

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Speaker 4: So USAID for Ukraine you're looking at probably late April,

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Speaker 4: early May at the earliest. But beyond that, you've also

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Speaker 4: got these international vehicles that have been discussed much in

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Speaker 4: recent days and reported on by Bloomberg as well well.

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Speaker 5: Terry.

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Speaker 2: There also is the question for Mike Johnson, even if

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Speaker 2: he's optimistic about his ability to actually get the AID

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Speaker 2: on the floor and pass, should he be optimistic about

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Speaker 2: being able to keep the gavel in hand after that?

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Speaker 2: Considering there is this motion to vacate from Marjorie Taylor

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Speaker 2: Green that she has threatened to act on if he

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Speaker 2: does this exact thing, put Ukraine eight.

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Speaker 6: On the floor.

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Speaker 4: And that's a fair point. I think Johnson's playing a

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Speaker 4: pretty complicated game for markets. By the way, I don't uh.

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Speaker 4: The first thing I'd say is, I don't think it

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Speaker 4: matters a whole lot who the who the House speaker is.

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Speaker 4: Uh uh. The spending bills have been done for the year.

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Speaker 4: There will be more can kicking for the next fiscal

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Speaker 4: year starting in late September early October. So uh, you know,

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Speaker 4: the main the main business of this Congress is finished.

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Speaker 4: Number one. Number two. He's playing kind of an inside

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Speaker 4: game with with Green and a few others appointing Green

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Speaker 4: to the uh to the impeachment prosecutors for majorcas for

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Speaker 4: example in the Senate. So uh so there's that. And finally, uh,

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Speaker 4: you know, this kind of little purest caucus that's been

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Speaker 4: be doubling Republican speakers for the last year and a half,

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Speaker 4: uh is not united on this one. And you've got

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Speaker 4: somebody like Matt Gates, who was McCarthy's nemesis, uh so

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Speaker 4: far in Johnson's corner on this. So uh, you know,

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Speaker 4: I tend to think it's a it's an active threat,

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Speaker 4: but it's not a live bomb at this point for Johnson.

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Speaker 2: All right, Terry Haynes of Pangea Policy. Always great to

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Speaker 2: have you here on Bloomberg. Thank you so much for

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Speaker 2: joining us. He of course is the founder of Pangea Policy,

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Speaker 2: talking there about the idea that Congress basically has done

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Speaker 2: its work. We finally got appropriations bills passed about halfway

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Speaker 2: through the fiscal year. There are these questions remaining about

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Speaker 2: supplemental funding not just for allies like Ukraine, Israel, even Taiwan,

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Speaker 2: but also potentially supplemental funding requests that could come in

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Speaker 2: very short order from the White House to repair and

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Speaker 2: rebuild the key bridge in Baltimore it's collapse, I would

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Speaker 2: remind everyone was one week ago today in the work

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Speaker 2: to clear that channel, get Baltimore Port reopened, and then

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Speaker 2: of course open up that vital conduit with a road

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Speaker 2: once again to connect I six ninety five is only

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Speaker 2: just beginning, so we'll follow that story in others. As

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Speaker 2: always here on Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power p Kens

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Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then

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Speaker 1: roud Oto with the Bloomberg business app. You can also

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Speaker 1: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York

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Speaker 1: station Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven.

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Speaker 2: Thirty broadcasting to you live, of course from Washington, where

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Speaker 2: we have to point out we are approaching the six

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Speaker 2: month mark of the war between Israel and Tomas. It's

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Speaker 2: left thousands of Palestinians dead in Gaza and hundreds of

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Speaker 2: thousands more on the brink of potential famine. In one

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Speaker 2: organization attempting to address those needs of those that are Hungary,

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Speaker 2: has lost seven members of its organization and an Israeli airstrike.

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Speaker 2: This is part of the statement that we've gotten from

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Speaker 2: World Central Kitchen. It reads, World Central Kitchen is devastated

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Speaker 2: to confirm seven members of our team have been killed

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Speaker 2: in an IDF strike in Gaza. The team was traveling

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Speaker 2: in a deconflicted zone and two armored cars branded with

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Speaker 2: the World Central Kitchen logo. It goes on to say,

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Speaker 2: despite coordinating movement with the IDF, the convoy was hit

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Speaker 2: as it was leaving the warehouse where the team had

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Speaker 2: unloaded more than one hundred tons of humanitarian food aid

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Speaker 2: brought to Gaza on the maritime route. The statement goes

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Speaker 2: on to say the seven killed were from Australia, Poland,

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Speaker 2: the UK, a dual citizen of the US and Canada,

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Speaker 2: and Palestine, and World Central Kitchen has now paused its

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Speaker 2: operations in the region as a result. The IDF says

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Speaker 2: it is carrying out an in depth examination into the incident.

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Speaker 2: And we also heard about this incident today from Secretary

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Speaker 2: of State Anthony Blincoln.

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Speaker 7: Here was his reaction.

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Speaker 8: The victims of yesterday's strike join A record number of

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Speaker 8: humanitarian workers have been killed in this particular conflict. These

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Speaker 8: people are heroes. We've spoken directly to the Israeli government

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Speaker 8: about this particular incident. We verged a swift, a thorough,

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Speaker 8: an impartial investigation to understand exactly what happened.

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Speaker 2: Joining me now for more on this is Michael Knights.

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Speaker 2: He is the Washington Institute Jill and j Bernstein fellow. Michael,

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Speaker 2: always great to have you on the show, where sometimes

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Speaker 2: we have to talk about pretty difficult things. We heard

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Speaker 2: from Jose Andres, the well known chef and the founder

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Speaker 2: of World Central Kitchen, who reacted to this news in

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Speaker 2: a social media post in part saying the Israeli government

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Speaker 2: needs to stop this indiscriminate killing. It needs to stop

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Speaker 2: restricting humanitarian aid, stop killing civilians and aid workers, and

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Speaker 2: stop using food as a weapon. What if anything, Michael,

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Speaker 2: do you expect will change about any of those behaviors

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Speaker 2: on the part of Israel.

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Speaker 9: Israel has no interest in these kind of stories coming

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Speaker 9: out on air. It obviously underlines their war effort against

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Speaker 9: the match. It undermines their global reputation. So they're not

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Speaker 9: doing these things on purpose. When it comes to, for instance,

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Speaker 9: Clackfroomagey incident, so they'll try as hard as they can

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Speaker 9: not to do this self inflicted wound Again. When it

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Speaker 9: comes to the food security inside gaza, they're already moving

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Speaker 9: pretty fast to try and open up multiple access routes

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Speaker 9: and try to reduce the risk of famine within the gaza.

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Speaker 2: Well, Michael, it's striking to me that we got the

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Speaker 2: news of this air strike on the same day that

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Speaker 2: we were getting news reports of the US preparing up

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Speaker 2: to eighteen billion dollars in additional arm sales to Israel.

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Speaker 2: Understanding how Israel's behavior may change is one thing, but

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Speaker 2: what about the US. Is there a world in which

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Speaker 2: things happened to a degree at which the US is

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Speaker 2: no longer going to be able to condone all of

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Speaker 2: Israel's behavior, no longer provide that kind of lethal aid,

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Speaker 2: at least to the same.

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Speaker 5: Degree that seems unlikely.

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Speaker 9: The US and Israel are for better or worse, you know,

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Speaker 9: depending on your view.

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Speaker 5: Tied it hit strategically.

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Speaker 9: You know, the US has in the past reduced the

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Speaker 9: amount of offensive weapons that are sent to a country

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Speaker 9: like Saudi Arabia, and that itself was a heavy diplomatic

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Speaker 9: and industrial arts for US to stop providing weapons to

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Speaker 9: people who have built their militaries around our weapons and

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Speaker 9: who are close partners.

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Speaker 5: We did it, but it was only a temporary measure.

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Speaker 9: I think with Israel that's less likely because Israel's in

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Speaker 9: the middle of when it sees as an existential war

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Speaker 9: that it sees as it did not start and now

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Speaker 9: it's trying to finish off.

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Speaker 5: So I don't think we're going to see much change there.

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Speaker 5: I mean, you know, the reality is America.

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Speaker 9: You know, us of a US citizen, We've blown up

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Speaker 9: a lot of weddings, a lot of funerals, a lot

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Speaker 9: of other things, and we do not expect our security

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Speaker 9: partners to turn their backs on us when we did that,

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Speaker 9: they just expected us to do better in the future.

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Speaker 2: Point taking Michael, of course, as you talk about the

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Speaker 2: war that Israel is still can aducting that they want

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Speaker 2: to see through to the end, that likely will include

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Speaker 2: an operation of some kind in Rafa, and we know

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Speaker 2: that yesterday Israeli and US officials talked about potentially what

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Speaker 2: that operation could look like. We know the US has concerns,

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Speaker 2: but we've heard from Prime Minister Benjamin net Yahoo in

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Speaker 2: the last few days that he intends the plan is

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Speaker 2: to move the more than one million Palestinian civilians that

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Speaker 2: are in Rafa out, get them the humanitarian aid they need,

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Speaker 2: then move in to attack the remaining Hamas battalions there.

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Speaker 2: Can Israel actually pull that off?

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Speaker 9: Yeah, it's very likely that Israel is going to do

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Speaker 9: a kind of clearance operation in the Rafa area.

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Speaker 10: What they could Philadelphia corridor along the Egyptian border where

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Speaker 10: they want to destroy as many of the long term

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Speaker 10: tunnels that link Egypt to Israel as possible to aid

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Speaker 10: with a permanent defeat of Hamass and military organization.

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Speaker 5: The question is really down to the details now, So

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Speaker 5: it's about.

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Speaker 9: When you any people out of Ruffa, do you do

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Speaker 9: biometric scanning of them to ensure that there's no non

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Speaker 9: terrorists amongst them, or indeed hostitutes being brought out amongst

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Speaker 9: them being smuggled out. So we're really down into the

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Speaker 9: weedy details of exactly how that should be done, and

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Speaker 9: that will take a couple of months, but the Israelis

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Speaker 9: are not in a hurry.

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Speaker 2: Well, in the meantime, it's worth noting that Israel hasn't

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Speaker 2: just been focusing exclusively on hamas reportedly, they stroke struck

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Speaker 2: directly Iran's embassy in Syria, killing eight more than a

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Speaker 2: dozen members of Iranian military personnel, including reportedly two generals.

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Speaker 2: Iran is now vowing revenge on Israel after blaming it

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Speaker 2: for that strike. The Supreme Leader said, and this is

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Speaker 2: a quote, Israel will be punished. We will make them

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Speaker 2: regret their crime. What could that look like, Michael, How

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Speaker 2: concerned should we be about escalation here?

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Speaker 9: Well, this was a really heavy heat hit for the Iranians.

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Speaker 9: You know, we had eleven killed. And amongst those with

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Speaker 9: the three highest the most senior Iranian paramilitary officers their

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Speaker 9: equivalent of the CIA.

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Speaker 5: Really the most three, the three iced senior.

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Speaker 9: Officers they have in the Syria Lebanon area were all

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Speaker 9: killed along with their key staff officers. So for the

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Speaker 9: Israelis this was a tremendous piece of targeting and struck

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Speaker 9: a military attaches office off to the side of the

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Speaker 9: Iranian embassy.

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Speaker 5: Now, the Iranians always say they're going to.

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Speaker 9: Hit back hard. Generally speaking, they don't. After the US

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Speaker 9: or the Israelis kill one of their senior officers, they

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Speaker 9: make sure that all the other outstations are well protected,

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Speaker 9: They withdraw people who are vulnerable and might get hit next,

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Speaker 9: they prepare their move and then at some point they'll

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Speaker 9: probably go make an Israeli and consula plant somewhere, or

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Speaker 9: they'll try to.

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Speaker 5: But they generally, again they don't rush it.

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Speaker 9: They wait until the moment is right for them, and

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Speaker 9: then they usually strike back in a way that does

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Speaker 9: not require the Israelis to then escalate even more.

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Speaker 2: But that's Iran specifically, Michael, What about actions its proxies

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Speaker 2: could take, not just thinking of Hamasier, but Hezbolah for example.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, excellent point.

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Speaker 9: So the proxies when it comes to things that will

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Speaker 9: draw a response against Iran directly, the proxies are very

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Speaker 9: mindful of Iran's overall security. Hezbollah itself is very mindful

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Speaker 9: of not doing anything that will draw the Israelis into

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Speaker 9: a major ground forces incursion or invasion of southern Lebanon.

437
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Speaker 9: So these railers are calculating that all the proxies out

438
00:23:56,800 --> 00:23:58,920
Speaker 9: there are doing as much as they can do, like

439
00:23:58,960 --> 00:24:02,400
Speaker 9: the whu Thi's in the rest or the Iraqis or

440
00:24:02,400 --> 00:24:06,320
Speaker 9: they are concerned about escalation to the extent where they

441
00:24:06,359 --> 00:24:09,000
Speaker 9: will not react to this. That's why these runers keep

442
00:24:09,040 --> 00:24:12,600
Speaker 9: pushing their luck with more and more devastating strikes on

443
00:24:12,680 --> 00:24:18,600
Speaker 9: Iranian leadership figures inside Syria, Lebanon, and potentially other places.

444
00:24:19,800 --> 00:24:22,119
Speaker 2: So finally, Michael, in our final minute here, would you

445
00:24:22,160 --> 00:24:25,439
Speaker 2: say that the odds of another front opening up in

446
00:24:25,480 --> 00:24:29,639
Speaker 2: this war are higher or lower than they were yesterday

447
00:24:29,680 --> 00:24:30,879
Speaker 2: before this news.

448
00:24:32,440 --> 00:24:34,760
Speaker 9: The high thing is now we have, you know, a

449
00:24:34,800 --> 00:24:40,119
Speaker 9: sudden burst of emotion within the Iranian leadership, but not

450
00:24:40,200 --> 00:24:43,840
Speaker 9: significantly higher. You know, the reality is if Israel goes

451
00:24:43,840 --> 00:24:48,119
Speaker 9: into Leblon and probably going next year, and right now,

452
00:24:48,880 --> 00:24:53,640
Speaker 9: the conflict is slowly de escalating and stretching out.

453
00:24:55,920 --> 00:24:58,200
Speaker 2: All right, Michael Nates, It's always great to have you here.

454
00:24:58,240 --> 00:25:00,880
Speaker 2: On balance of power with your expertise. We really appreciate

455
00:25:00,880 --> 00:25:03,720
Speaker 2: you joining us Michael Knights, of course, the Washington Institute,

456
00:25:03,800 --> 00:25:07,000
Speaker 2: Jill and Jay Bernstein fellow as we keep an eye

457
00:25:07,080 --> 00:25:09,200
Speaker 2: on what is happening in Israel and again the death

458
00:25:09,240 --> 00:25:12,720
Speaker 2: of seven humanitarian aid workers working on behalf of World

459
00:25:12,800 --> 00:25:16,520
Speaker 2: Central Kitchen, which has now paused its operations in the region.

460
00:25:16,600 --> 00:25:19,120
Speaker 2: We will see what more we hear from the Israeli

461
00:25:19,160 --> 00:25:22,840
Speaker 2: investigation into the strike that killed them. We'll have much

462
00:25:22,840 --> 00:25:25,000
Speaker 2: more on that story and others throughout the hour here

463
00:25:25,040 --> 00:25:26,000
Speaker 2: on Balance of Power.

464
00:25:29,680 --> 00:25:33,240
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

465
00:25:33,320 --> 00:25:36,240
Speaker 1: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appo CarPlay, and

466
00:25:36,240 --> 00:25:38,960
Speaker 1: then roun Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on

467
00:25:39,040 --> 00:25:42,240
Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live

468
00:25:42,359 --> 00:25:43,040
Speaker 1: on YouTube.

469
00:25:45,800 --> 00:25:48,560
Speaker 2: I'm a very happy Tuesday to you. A Tuesday, of course,

470
00:25:48,560 --> 00:25:51,560
Speaker 2: which isn't just any Tuesday. It's also primary day in

471
00:25:51,600 --> 00:25:55,600
Speaker 2: a handful of states, as I mentioned, Wisconsin included, as

472
00:25:55,600 --> 00:25:58,160
Speaker 2: well as Rhode Island, New York in Connecticut. But there

473
00:25:58,200 --> 00:26:01,120
Speaker 2: is the question of whether any of these Mary's actually

474
00:26:01,160 --> 00:26:04,439
Speaker 2: matter much at all when Donald Trump and Joe Biden

475
00:26:04,520 --> 00:26:08,199
Speaker 2: already have all but locked up the respective nominations for

476
00:26:08,320 --> 00:26:10,880
Speaker 2: their parties. So what, if anything, could we actually learn

477
00:26:11,520 --> 00:26:14,880
Speaker 2: from the contest taking place today. Bloomberg's Nancy Cook, who

478
00:26:14,880 --> 00:26:17,480
Speaker 2: covers national politics for US, is joining me here in

479
00:26:17,520 --> 00:26:21,400
Speaker 2: our Washington studio. So, Nancy, are there any states today

480
00:26:21,440 --> 00:26:24,679
Speaker 2: that could actually be interesting or is just nothing really

481
00:26:25,080 --> 00:26:28,000
Speaker 2: that interesting? It is interesting as a relative term in

482
00:26:28,040 --> 00:26:30,720
Speaker 2: the twenty twenty four presidential election cycle.

483
00:26:31,080 --> 00:26:33,399
Speaker 7: Well, I think what's interesting about the primaries today is

484
00:26:33,560 --> 00:26:35,480
Speaker 7: just you know, obviously we know who both of the

485
00:26:35,520 --> 00:26:38,000
Speaker 7: nominees are, but we can still look at sort of

486
00:26:38,280 --> 00:26:40,679
Speaker 7: the level of support. It gives us a chance to

487
00:26:40,720 --> 00:26:43,119
Speaker 7: look at the level of support for the candidates in

488
00:26:43,200 --> 00:26:46,399
Speaker 7: these key states, and so to sort of get a

489
00:26:46,440 --> 00:26:48,400
Speaker 7: sense of like how people are doing with all these

490
00:26:48,400 --> 00:26:51,840
Speaker 7: different demographic groups who you know, they'll really need to

491
00:26:51,880 --> 00:26:53,760
Speaker 7: court ahead of the twenty twenty four elections. So I

492
00:26:53,800 --> 00:26:57,400
Speaker 7: would put white suburban women in that category, Black voters,

493
00:26:57,520 --> 00:27:00,119
Speaker 7: Hispanic voters. These are the groups that are really going

494
00:27:00,200 --> 00:27:02,399
Speaker 7: to be up for grabs that both Trump and Biden

495
00:27:02,480 --> 00:27:03,359
Speaker 7: are really going after.

496
00:27:03,600 --> 00:27:05,840
Speaker 2: Well, and there's the question of young voters too, which

497
00:27:05,880 --> 00:27:09,280
Speaker 2: could be potentially problematic for Biden. Considering there is a

498
00:27:09,359 --> 00:27:12,760
Speaker 2: movement in Wisconsin in particular, one of these key swing states,

499
00:27:12,760 --> 00:27:16,000
Speaker 2: to vote uninstructed on the Democratic ballot instead of for him.

500
00:27:16,320 --> 00:27:19,440
Speaker 2: This is a protest over the administration's policy of supporting

501
00:27:19,480 --> 00:27:22,800
Speaker 2: Israel despite what's happening in Gadda. They want twenty thousand

502
00:27:22,840 --> 00:27:26,800
Speaker 2: voters to vote uninstructed, roughly the margin of victory for

503
00:27:26,840 --> 00:27:30,119
Speaker 2: Biden over Trump in twenty twenty. How worried is the

504
00:27:30,119 --> 00:27:31,440
Speaker 2: Biden campaign about that.

505
00:27:31,400 --> 00:27:31,920
Speaker 6: At this point?

506
00:27:32,000 --> 00:27:34,119
Speaker 7: I think the Biden campaign is stressed out about that.

507
00:27:34,160 --> 00:27:36,280
Speaker 7: I think that there is real blowback for the way

508
00:27:36,359 --> 00:27:39,400
Speaker 7: that Biden has been handling Israel. There is a real

509
00:27:39,440 --> 00:27:42,119
Speaker 7: sense of outrage among young voters about how he is

510
00:27:42,160 --> 00:27:45,359
Speaker 7: handling things with Gaza. And I think that there is

511
00:27:45,400 --> 00:27:48,160
Speaker 7: a sense, you know, the election in November is going

512
00:27:48,200 --> 00:27:51,040
Speaker 7: to be so close that even if you have people

513
00:27:51,080 --> 00:27:53,919
Speaker 7: who don't necessarily if young voters don't necessarily vote for

514
00:27:53,920 --> 00:27:56,960
Speaker 7: Trump but they just stay home, that alone could cost

515
00:27:57,000 --> 00:28:00,359
Speaker 7: Biden the election. And so these primaries and of what

516
00:28:00,400 --> 00:28:03,600
Speaker 7: the turnout looks like is also very instructive for what

517
00:28:03,640 --> 00:28:04,960
Speaker 7: both campaigns are up against.

518
00:28:05,400 --> 00:28:08,520
Speaker 2: Well, speaking of both campaigns, the other campaign, the Trump

519
00:28:08,520 --> 00:28:11,320
Speaker 2: campaign is on the move. Today, he is in Wisconsin

520
00:28:11,440 --> 00:28:14,480
Speaker 2: as well as in Michigan, making two stops to talk

521
00:28:14,520 --> 00:28:18,000
Speaker 2: about the border in what are not exactly border states,

522
00:28:18,040 --> 00:28:21,119
Speaker 2: at least certainly not southern border states. How significant is

523
00:28:21,119 --> 00:28:23,320
Speaker 2: it that he's choosing these places to go and bringing

524
00:28:23,359 --> 00:28:24,120
Speaker 2: this message.

525
00:28:24,600 --> 00:28:28,000
Speaker 7: Well, I think that the Trump campaign really sees immigration

526
00:28:28,320 --> 00:28:30,440
Speaker 7: as one of the key things that they're going to

527
00:28:30,480 --> 00:28:34,680
Speaker 7: talk about heading into twenty twenty four. We're seeing Democrats

528
00:28:34,720 --> 00:28:36,880
Speaker 7: sort of use abortion in the same way. They see

529
00:28:36,880 --> 00:28:39,680
Speaker 7: it as a major vulnerability for Biden, something that they

530
00:28:39,680 --> 00:28:41,880
Speaker 7: feel like he hasn't been able to handle, sort of

531
00:28:41,920 --> 00:28:45,960
Speaker 7: dealing with the southern border well, and people are really

532
00:28:45,960 --> 00:28:48,880
Speaker 7: outraged by it. Trump has also really been seizing on

533
00:28:49,040 --> 00:28:52,760
Speaker 7: some of the crimes that have happened recently with undocumented

534
00:28:52,760 --> 00:28:55,479
Speaker 7: immigrants and sort of using that as an example of

535
00:28:55,520 --> 00:28:58,880
Speaker 7: this tough on crime, tough on immigration message, and I

536
00:28:58,880 --> 00:29:02,080
Speaker 7: think that it's something that really continue to play up well.

537
00:29:02,120 --> 00:29:05,040
Speaker 2: Of course, these events today are some of only a

538
00:29:05,080 --> 00:29:07,360
Speaker 2: handful that we've seen over the course of the last month.

539
00:29:07,400 --> 00:29:10,840
Speaker 2: Since Super Tuesday, when effectively the race became over for

540
00:29:10,920 --> 00:29:14,760
Speaker 2: the Republican nomination, He's only had two events prior to today,

541
00:29:15,080 --> 00:29:19,600
Speaker 2: Is this just a financial question, to the extent to

542
00:29:19,640 --> 00:29:22,760
Speaker 2: which a campaign that is having a greater difficulty pulling

543
00:29:22,800 --> 00:29:25,120
Speaker 2: in money from donors and having to shell out a

544
00:29:25,120 --> 00:29:27,840
Speaker 2: lot for legal fees as well, is he going to

545
00:29:27,840 --> 00:29:30,000
Speaker 2: be able to campaign to the same extent that President

546
00:29:30,040 --> 00:29:32,520
Speaker 2: Biden is when he swung through a multitude of swing

547
00:29:32,560 --> 00:29:34,440
Speaker 2: states since the State of the Union that same week.

548
00:29:34,600 --> 00:29:36,760
Speaker 7: Well, you have to remember that Trump faced a primary,

549
00:29:36,880 --> 00:29:38,760
Speaker 7: and so he had to do a lot more traveling

550
00:29:39,040 --> 00:29:42,040
Speaker 7: from January, February and March than Biden did when Biden

551
00:29:42,160 --> 00:29:44,440
Speaker 7: was mostly dormant and at the White House, still being

552
00:29:44,480 --> 00:29:47,280
Speaker 7: president but sort of not doing this raft of visits.

553
00:29:47,320 --> 00:29:49,160
Speaker 7: And so I think the way that the Trump campaign

554
00:29:49,240 --> 00:29:51,840
Speaker 7: views it is for the spring, I don't think that

555
00:29:51,880 --> 00:29:54,400
Speaker 7: we're going to see him doing as many of these rallies.

556
00:29:54,440 --> 00:29:56,320
Speaker 7: You know, he's facing a lot of court cases. I

557
00:29:56,360 --> 00:29:58,840
Speaker 7: think their strategy is, we don't want to spend a

558
00:29:58,880 --> 00:30:01,120
Speaker 7: ton of money doing a bunch of rallies this spring.

559
00:30:01,240 --> 00:30:04,520
Speaker 7: We want to save that money for the summer and fall,

560
00:30:04,560 --> 00:30:06,360
Speaker 7: when it's going to matter more. They are at a

561
00:30:06,400 --> 00:30:09,560
Speaker 7: financial disadvantage, as you said, compared to Biden, and I

562
00:30:09,560 --> 00:30:11,720
Speaker 7: think that they really want to conserve that cash, and

563
00:30:11,760 --> 00:30:14,040
Speaker 7: in the meantime, the Trump team has really been focused

564
00:30:14,040 --> 00:30:16,400
Speaker 7: on trying to raise more money to match what the

565
00:30:16,400 --> 00:30:20,040
Speaker 7: Democrats have and also just reorganizing the RNs. He sort

566
00:30:20,040 --> 00:30:22,720
Speaker 7: of taking this moment to now that he's the nominee,

567
00:30:22,720 --> 00:30:24,200
Speaker 7: to kind of figure out how they want to move

568
00:30:24,240 --> 00:30:26,720
Speaker 7: forward and what their strategy in the battleground states is

569
00:30:26,760 --> 00:30:27,080
Speaker 7: going to be.

570
00:30:27,240 --> 00:30:29,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's also worth noting that Trump does have

571
00:30:29,200 --> 00:30:31,680
Speaker 2: the benefit of a lot of free earned media as well,

572
00:30:31,760 --> 00:30:35,320
Speaker 2: who covers each and every appearance at courthouses in which

573
00:30:35,320 --> 00:30:37,360
Speaker 2: he can kind of use it almost as a campaign stop.

574
00:30:37,360 --> 00:30:40,160
Speaker 2: It's an ability to speak to voters about the wrongs

575
00:30:40,160 --> 00:30:42,640
Speaker 2: that he feels have been done to him through the

576
00:30:42,680 --> 00:30:45,479
Speaker 2: Department of Justice, to whatever degree of merit they may have.

577
00:30:45,880 --> 00:30:48,320
Speaker 2: Nancy Cook, thank you so much. As always Bloomberg National

578
00:30:48,360 --> 00:30:51,040
Speaker 2: politics reporter joining me today, really appreciate it. And of course,

579
00:30:51,040 --> 00:30:54,840
Speaker 2: as Nancy and I discussed that uninstructed vote effort in Wisconsin,

580
00:30:54,920 --> 00:30:58,680
Speaker 2: that does come back to the administration's policy surrounding Israel,

581
00:30:59,080 --> 00:31:01,800
Speaker 2: as there is an ongoing more between Israel and Hamas

582
00:31:01,800 --> 00:31:03,720
Speaker 2: and some of the latest news we have received on

583
00:31:03,760 --> 00:31:07,520
Speaker 2: that front came from World Central Kitchen. It's a humanitarian

584
00:31:07,560 --> 00:31:10,600
Speaker 2: aid group working to get aid to those who need it,

585
00:31:10,640 --> 00:31:14,840
Speaker 2: the thousands of Hungary Palestinian civilians in Gaza. But they

586
00:31:14,880 --> 00:31:19,040
Speaker 2: lost seven members of that group and an Israeli strike yesterday.

587
00:31:19,400 --> 00:31:22,840
Speaker 2: In part the statement from World Central Kitchen reads that

588
00:31:22,880 --> 00:31:25,719
Speaker 2: the seven killed were from Australia, Poland, the United Kingdom,

589
00:31:25,760 --> 00:31:29,680
Speaker 2: a dual citizen of the US and Canada, and Palestine.

590
00:31:30,080 --> 00:31:33,640
Speaker 2: World Central Kitchen has paused operations in the region, and

591
00:31:33,720 --> 00:31:36,520
Speaker 2: we heard from Jose Andres, who is the founder of

592
00:31:36,520 --> 00:31:40,520
Speaker 2: World Central Kitchen and of course a famous chef as well,

593
00:31:41,280 --> 00:31:44,160
Speaker 2: who said that the Israeli government needs to stop this

594
00:31:44,320 --> 00:31:48,120
Speaker 2: indiscriminate killing. We also heard from the US Secretary of

595
00:31:48,120 --> 00:31:51,840
Speaker 2: State Antony Blincoln about this earlier today. This is what

596
00:31:51,880 --> 00:31:52,280
Speaker 2: he said.

597
00:31:52,760 --> 00:31:57,200
Speaker 8: The victims of yesterday's strike join a record number of

598
00:31:57,280 --> 00:32:02,200
Speaker 8: humanitarian workers have been killed. In this particular comment, these

599
00:32:02,200 --> 00:32:06,600
Speaker 8: people are heroes. We've spoken directly to the Israeli government

600
00:32:06,640 --> 00:32:12,160
Speaker 8: about this particular incident. We've verged a swift, a thorough,

601
00:32:12,840 --> 00:32:18,240
Speaker 8: an impartial investigation to understand exactly what happens.

602
00:32:20,160 --> 00:32:22,640
Speaker 2: Joining me now for more on this is James Jeffrey.

603
00:32:22,680 --> 00:32:25,240
Speaker 2: He is Wilson Center, Chair of the Middle East Program

604
00:32:25,280 --> 00:32:29,400
Speaker 2: and former US Ambassador to Iraq and Turkey Ambassador. Thank

605
00:32:29,440 --> 00:32:32,800
Speaker 2: you so much for being here on Bloomberg Television and Radio.

606
00:32:33,000 --> 00:32:35,080
Speaker 2: On the same day that we get news of seven

607
00:32:35,160 --> 00:32:39,000
Speaker 2: AID workers being killed in an IDF strike, we also

608
00:32:39,040 --> 00:32:43,240
Speaker 2: got news of potentially billions dollars in more arm sales

609
00:32:43,440 --> 00:32:47,400
Speaker 2: that the US could make to Israel. How much longer

610
00:32:47,720 --> 00:32:50,120
Speaker 2: is this going to be a pattern of behavior, No

611
00:32:50,200 --> 00:32:52,680
Speaker 2: matter what happens in Gaza, no matter who what happens to,

612
00:32:53,680 --> 00:32:56,360
Speaker 2: the US is still standing behind the Israeli government.

613
00:32:57,880 --> 00:33:00,000
Speaker 11: Well, first of all, thank you for having me on.

614
00:33:00,480 --> 00:33:04,560
Speaker 11: This is a terribly tough situation for the US government

615
00:33:05,400 --> 00:33:10,360
Speaker 11: to be in because of three things. First, Israel is

616
00:33:10,400 --> 00:33:13,640
Speaker 11: in an existential fight for the first time in fifty years,

617
00:33:13,640 --> 00:33:16,600
Speaker 11: and this is a fight broadly throughout the region that

618
00:33:16,680 --> 00:33:19,840
Speaker 11: the United States needs to have Israel and its other

619
00:33:19,920 --> 00:33:24,640
Speaker 11: allies win against not just a mask but Iran in

620
00:33:24,680 --> 00:33:28,719
Speaker 11: the hood. He's closing down the Red Sea. Second, Israel

621
00:33:28,800 --> 00:33:33,640
Speaker 11: needs to do much more immediately to enable the flow

622
00:33:34,080 --> 00:33:38,920
Speaker 11: the flood of humanitarian assistance into Gaza, and take much

623
00:33:38,960 --> 00:33:42,880
Speaker 11: more care what we call more restrictive combat rules of

624
00:33:42,920 --> 00:33:48,000
Speaker 11: engagement to avoid new attacks on humanitarian workers or for

625
00:33:48,040 --> 00:33:51,040
Speaker 11: that man, of civilians of any sort in this very

626
00:33:51,080 --> 00:33:53,920
Speaker 11: difficult fight. But the third point, which you didn't hear

627
00:33:53,960 --> 00:33:57,200
Speaker 11: Blincoln say, is that for Israel to do this, and

628
00:33:57,280 --> 00:33:59,680
Speaker 11: I advocate it should, we all have to take into

629
00:33:59,680 --> 00:34:04,080
Speaker 11: concer iteration this will result in more Israeli soldiers killed

630
00:34:04,160 --> 00:34:07,520
Speaker 11: in a longer battle. That is, we've seen this in

631
00:34:07,560 --> 00:34:10,520
Speaker 11: the fight against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.

632
00:34:10,880 --> 00:34:14,719
Speaker 11: When we tighten rules of engagement, we lost, not us,

633
00:34:14,760 --> 00:34:18,239
Speaker 11: but the Iraqi and Syrian allies lost bomb of forces.

634
00:34:18,480 --> 00:34:21,880
Speaker 11: So we released them in twenty seventeen and ninet eighteen

635
00:34:22,239 --> 00:34:25,120
Speaker 11: in Syria, and the New York Times is now looking

636
00:34:25,160 --> 00:34:25,600
Speaker 11: into that.

637
00:34:27,800 --> 00:34:30,080
Speaker 2: Okay, So there could be a lot of loss all around,

638
00:34:30,080 --> 00:34:32,799
Speaker 2: not just of civilian life, but potentially the lives of

639
00:34:33,640 --> 00:34:36,480
Speaker 2: members of the Israeli military as well. To go back,

640
00:34:36,480 --> 00:34:39,800
Speaker 2: Ambassador to your point about this being existential for Israel.

641
00:34:39,840 --> 00:34:41,840
Speaker 2: Are we at a point now, six months into this

642
00:34:41,920 --> 00:34:45,560
Speaker 2: conflict where this is also existential for the Palestinian people.

643
00:34:45,600 --> 00:34:48,600
Speaker 2: We're not just talking about tens of thousands killed, but

644
00:34:48,640 --> 00:34:51,000
Speaker 2: potentially hundreds of thousands, if not in the millions of

645
00:34:51,040 --> 00:34:53,680
Speaker 2: people who could face eminent Bamin if AID does not

646
00:34:53,760 --> 00:34:55,239
Speaker 2: get in in a more expedient matter.

647
00:34:56,920 --> 00:35:00,880
Speaker 11: Absolutely, which is why Israel has been working in the

648
00:35:00,960 --> 00:35:03,800
Speaker 11: United States and other countries have been working. The irony

649
00:35:03,920 --> 00:35:07,920
Speaker 11: is that everybody has been doing somewhat better in the

650
00:35:07,960 --> 00:35:10,920
Speaker 11: past few weeks. We still are very concerned about several

651
00:35:11,000 --> 00:35:16,120
Speaker 11: hundred thousand people in North Gaza, but AID is getting

652
00:35:16,120 --> 00:35:22,040
Speaker 11: into the south in a relatively reasonable flow, about two

653
00:35:22,120 --> 00:35:25,640
Speaker 11: hundred trucks a day. But nonetheless, the other thing you

654
00:35:25,680 --> 00:35:27,799
Speaker 11: have to think of is, look, if Israel were to

655
00:35:27,800 --> 00:35:30,399
Speaker 11: stop this water day as a UN seems to want,

656
00:35:30,480 --> 00:35:33,760
Speaker 11: and leave Gaza, you would have two point four million

657
00:35:33,840 --> 00:35:38,960
Speaker 11: people in the rubble ruled by what's left of Hamas,

658
00:35:39,440 --> 00:35:42,160
Speaker 11: which would simply prepare for another attack on Israel. That's

659
00:35:42,239 --> 00:35:45,120
Speaker 11: not a future for the Palestinian people too. This is

660
00:35:45,320 --> 00:35:51,239
Speaker 11: a very difficult conundrum that President Biden faces, the Israeli face,

661
00:35:51,320 --> 00:35:54,880
Speaker 11: and we all face. It's not just like Russia stop

662
00:35:55,120 --> 00:35:58,160
Speaker 11: fighting in Ukraine and go home and we'll all be happy.

663
00:35:58,280 --> 00:36:01,080
Speaker 11: That's not the situation here, and often presented that way.

664
00:36:01,400 --> 00:36:04,480
Speaker 11: There were really hard choices here. Yeah.

665
00:36:04,520 --> 00:36:06,839
Speaker 2: Well, and sir you mentioned the UN which, of course,

666
00:36:06,840 --> 00:36:09,880
Speaker 2: the Security Council passed a resolution calling for a ceasefire

667
00:36:10,000 --> 00:36:12,400
Speaker 2: just last week. The US did not veto that, It

668
00:36:12,520 --> 00:36:15,799
Speaker 2: just abstained from the vote on the subject of a ceasefire.

669
00:36:15,880 --> 00:36:18,919
Speaker 2: Though we did get a statement from the Israeli Prime

670
00:36:18,920 --> 00:36:22,560
Speaker 2: Minister's office on behalf of Masad today that they sent

671
00:36:22,640 --> 00:36:26,240
Speaker 2: an updated proposal in the hostage released and ceasefire talks

672
00:36:26,239 --> 00:36:30,000
Speaker 2: that are happening in Cairo. How optimistic are you that,

673
00:36:30,280 --> 00:36:33,560
Speaker 2: if not a permanent ceasefire deal, but a temporary one

674
00:36:33,880 --> 00:36:35,520
Speaker 2: can be reached in the near term.

675
00:36:36,600 --> 00:36:40,920
Speaker 11: Not very We have seen this movie now for two months. Israel,

676
00:36:41,200 --> 00:36:46,720
Speaker 11: pressed by the United States, Egypt and Kutta, it keeps

677
00:36:46,760 --> 00:36:52,080
Speaker 11: on coming up with new temporary ceasefire provisions. We endorse them.

678
00:36:52,320 --> 00:36:55,200
Speaker 11: It goes to Hamas. Hamas is no. The reason is

679
00:36:55,239 --> 00:37:00,200
Speaker 11: that Hamas looks at the international reaction to blenders like

680
00:37:00,280 --> 00:37:05,120
Speaker 11: the Israeli attack on the World Central Kitchen and decides

681
00:37:05,360 --> 00:37:08,480
Speaker 11: we consider it out. We can demand Israel just leaves

682
00:37:08,480 --> 00:37:10,879
Speaker 11: and sooner or later the international community will support us.

683
00:37:10,880 --> 00:37:12,840
Speaker 11: And I fear that might be right. And that's not

684
00:37:12,880 --> 00:37:15,279
Speaker 11: a good thing for anybody, for the Israelis and not

685
00:37:15,320 --> 00:37:18,320
Speaker 11: for the people of guys.

686
00:37:18,920 --> 00:37:21,120
Speaker 2: Well, and of course there are other areas of the

687
00:37:21,120 --> 00:37:23,960
Speaker 2: Middle East to consider here as well. After yesterday we

688
00:37:24,040 --> 00:37:28,920
Speaker 2: got the news that Iran is blaming Israel for striking

689
00:37:28,960 --> 00:37:33,279
Speaker 2: directly It's embassy in Syria, which they say killed two

690
00:37:33,400 --> 00:37:36,200
Speaker 2: top generals as well as a number of other Iranian

691
00:37:36,239 --> 00:37:40,360
Speaker 2: military personnel. Now Aron Supreme Leader is vowing revenge on Israel.

692
00:37:40,440 --> 00:37:42,640
Speaker 2: He says, this is a quote. Israel will be punished.

693
00:37:42,960 --> 00:37:46,960
Speaker 2: We will make them regret their crime. How concerned, ambassador,

694
00:37:47,000 --> 00:37:50,120
Speaker 2: are you in this moment about escalation not just between

695
00:37:50,160 --> 00:37:52,680
Speaker 2: Israel and Hamas, which of course is an Iranian proxy,

696
00:37:53,000 --> 00:37:54,640
Speaker 2: but Israel and Iran directly.

697
00:37:56,760 --> 00:38:00,000
Speaker 11: I certainly think the administration is concerned about escalation, But again,

698
00:38:00,640 --> 00:38:04,080
Speaker 11: we are in a war because American forces, be it

699
00:38:04,360 --> 00:38:07,239
Speaker 11: in the Red Sea, be it in Iraq, Syria and

700
00:38:07,360 --> 00:38:10,360
Speaker 11: Jordan coming under fire in a firing back. At times,

701
00:38:11,680 --> 00:38:14,840
Speaker 11: escalation is a concern, but there's also a concern of winning,

702
00:38:15,000 --> 00:38:18,879
Speaker 11: not losing. Israel was struck repeatedly in the last two

703
00:38:18,960 --> 00:38:24,680
Speaker 11: days by Iranian surrogate forces. Firing weapons made in Iran

704
00:38:24,800 --> 00:38:28,760
Speaker 11: are given from Iran, including an Israeli base in Isla

705
00:38:28,960 --> 00:38:31,480
Speaker 11: in the south of the country. So Israel sees this

706
00:38:31,600 --> 00:38:34,719
Speaker 11: as responded, it would be happy to stop shooting at

707
00:38:34,760 --> 00:38:37,760
Speaker 11: southern Lebanon, to stop shooting at Syria, to stop shooting

708
00:38:38,320 --> 00:38:41,200
Speaker 11: at Yemen. But they're the people who decided to stop

709
00:38:41,200 --> 00:38:44,440
Speaker 11: shooting to the seventh of Octoba. That's the problem again.

710
00:38:44,719 --> 00:38:47,560
Speaker 11: It always seems to come back to why did Israel

711
00:38:47,640 --> 00:38:50,800
Speaker 11: do that? Why did Israel escalate? Why does Israel make mistakes?

712
00:38:51,040 --> 00:38:52,239
Speaker 11: They didn't ask for this fight.

713
00:38:55,200 --> 00:38:58,960
Speaker 2: It's great to get your perspective on this, ambassador, and

714
00:38:59,120 --> 00:39:01,320
Speaker 2: it's also worth noting, of course, you served as investador

715
00:39:01,360 --> 00:39:03,040
Speaker 2: not just to a rock but Turkey as well, So

716
00:39:03,120 --> 00:39:06,440
Speaker 2: in our final ninety seconds with you leaning on that expertise,

717
00:39:06,719 --> 00:39:10,000
Speaker 2: we did see over this weekend to Airdiwan, the Turkish

718
00:39:10,040 --> 00:39:13,880
Speaker 2: president and his party being dealt pretty significant blows in

719
00:39:14,000 --> 00:39:16,960
Speaker 2: municipal elections. How should we be thinking about what is

720
00:39:17,000 --> 00:39:19,920
Speaker 2: happening domestically in Turkey and what effect, if any, that

721
00:39:20,160 --> 00:39:22,680
Speaker 2: could have on the wider balance in the Middle East.

722
00:39:23,960 --> 00:39:27,440
Speaker 11: Well Erdiwan did well a year ago in the national

723
00:39:27,440 --> 00:39:31,120
Speaker 11: elections where he got a new five year term as president,

724
00:39:32,200 --> 00:39:35,000
Speaker 11: and what this shows is that if you have a

725
00:39:35,040 --> 00:39:38,960
Speaker 11: good leader of the opposition, and that's effectively the candidate

726
00:39:39,040 --> 00:39:43,360
Speaker 11: from mayor in Istambul, mister imam Olu, that the Turkish

727
00:39:43,400 --> 00:39:47,279
Speaker 11: people are saying, Okay, we've voted for you, you've been in

728
00:39:47,320 --> 00:39:50,600
Speaker 11: control for twenty years, but we're unhappy about the economy.

729
00:39:50,640 --> 00:39:54,320
Speaker 11: We're unhappy about some of your political decisions, particularly the

730
00:39:54,520 --> 00:39:59,400
Speaker 11: restraint on rights and things like press freedom. So we

731
00:39:59,440 --> 00:40:02,560
Speaker 11: want to your message. It doesn't mean the end of Dawe.

732
00:40:02,600 --> 00:40:04,680
Speaker 11: He's still in a powerful position, but it means he

733
00:40:04,760 --> 00:40:05,600
Speaker 11: has to be careful.

734
00:40:07,680 --> 00:40:10,000
Speaker 2: All right, Ambassador, thank you so much for joining us

735
00:40:10,040 --> 00:40:12,560
Speaker 2: here on balance of power. Really great to get your perspective.

736
00:40:12,560 --> 00:40:16,120
Speaker 2: That's James Jeffrey, former US Ambassador to both Rock and Turkey,

737
00:40:16,440 --> 00:40:18,680
Speaker 2: now at the Wilson Centator where he is chair of

738
00:40:18,760 --> 00:40:21,719
Speaker 2: the Middle East Program, joining us today on Bloomberg Television

739
00:40:21,960 --> 00:40:24,480
Speaker 2: and Radio, where we have much more coming up, because

740
00:40:24,480 --> 00:40:26,239
Speaker 2: it is not just Israel that we have to have

741
00:40:26,280 --> 00:40:29,880
Speaker 2: our eye on in terms of geopolitics, but China as well.

742
00:40:30,000 --> 00:40:34,080
Speaker 2: After President Biden, US President Chiesian Ping or Chinese President

743
00:40:34,160 --> 00:40:36,640
Speaker 2: Chieshin Ping rather spoke by phone today, the first time

744
00:40:36,640 --> 00:40:39,359
Speaker 2: they've talked one on one since November. We'll have more

745
00:40:39,400 --> 00:40:41,319
Speaker 2: on that later this hour, and we're going to talk

746
00:40:41,320 --> 00:40:44,920
Speaker 2: about abortion rights in Florida next with our political panel.

747
00:40:45,120 --> 00:40:51,680
Speaker 1: Right here on Bloomberg, you're listening to the Bloomberg Balance

748
00:40:51,680 --> 00:40:55,040
Speaker 1: of Power podcast kens just live weekdays at noon Eastern

749
00:40:55,120 --> 00:40:58,360
Speaker 1: on Applecarplay and then roud Oro with the Bloomberg Business App.

750
00:40:58,400 --> 00:41:01,279
Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

751
00:41:01,280 --> 00:41:05,480
Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa, playing Bloomberg eleven.

752
00:41:05,360 --> 00:41:10,600
Speaker 2: Thirty live from Washington, d C. Where town is still

753
00:41:10,880 --> 00:41:12,640
Speaker 2: a little bit quiet because a lot of people that

754
00:41:12,680 --> 00:41:16,520
Speaker 2: are usually here, namely all the members of Congress aren't

755
00:41:16,520 --> 00:41:19,200
Speaker 2: here right now. It is still recess or the district

756
00:41:19,200 --> 00:41:21,000
Speaker 2: work period, whatever you want to call it, and many

757
00:41:21,000 --> 00:41:24,000
Speaker 2: of them aren't even actually in their districts. A handful

758
00:41:24,040 --> 00:41:27,400
Speaker 2: of them today are in Florida, including the House Democratic

759
00:41:27,480 --> 00:41:31,400
Speaker 2: Leader Hakim Jeffries, who was partaking in a field hearing

760
00:41:32,040 --> 00:41:36,520
Speaker 2: to discuss the issues of reproductive freedom. This is just

761
00:41:36,560 --> 00:41:40,680
Speaker 2: a day after Florida's Supreme Court held up the fifteen

762
00:41:40,719 --> 00:41:43,359
Speaker 2: week abortion band signed by Governor Ron De Santis back

763
00:41:43,360 --> 00:41:46,040
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty two, which now means a subsequent law

764
00:41:46,520 --> 00:41:50,120
Speaker 2: which would ban abortion after six weeks of pregnancy will

765
00:41:50,200 --> 00:41:52,880
Speaker 2: soon be able to go into effect. But that's not

766
00:41:52,920 --> 00:41:55,520
Speaker 2: all Florida's Supreme Court ruled. They also ruled that a

767
00:41:55,560 --> 00:41:58,799
Speaker 2: ballot initiative regarding reproductive rights and being enshrined in the

768
00:41:58,840 --> 00:42:02,640
Speaker 2: Constitution will be on the ballot in November. They are

769
00:42:02,680 --> 00:42:06,200
Speaker 2: allowing that to go forward. So with more, let's assemble

770
00:42:06,239 --> 00:42:10,160
Speaker 2: our political panel Janie Shanzeno Bloomberg Politics contributor, and Lisa

771
00:42:10,200 --> 00:42:13,880
Speaker 2: Camuso Miller, former RNC communications director and host of the

772
00:42:13,880 --> 00:42:17,520
Speaker 2: Friday Reporter podcast. So, Lisa, first to you, what did

773
00:42:17,560 --> 00:42:21,279
Speaker 2: Florida Supreme Court just do to likely turnout in the

774
00:42:21,320 --> 00:42:23,200
Speaker 2: state of Florida in November.

775
00:42:25,320 --> 00:42:28,000
Speaker 12: Well, Kayleie, they were busy yesterday for sure, And I

776
00:42:28,040 --> 00:42:31,799
Speaker 12: think that what is interesting to me is that even

777
00:42:31,800 --> 00:42:36,520
Speaker 12: if Donald Trump is successful in Florida, this decision yesterday

778
00:42:36,560 --> 00:42:38,480
Speaker 12: is going to make it very difficult for him to

779
00:42:38,560 --> 00:42:40,960
Speaker 12: thread the needle on this issue. He has said in

780
00:42:41,000 --> 00:42:42,879
Speaker 12: the past that he's very proud of the fact that

781
00:42:42,960 --> 00:42:46,239
Speaker 12: the courts have done what they need to do in

782
00:42:46,320 --> 00:42:48,520
Speaker 12: order to strengthen laws around a portion, but he's also

783
00:42:48,560 --> 00:42:50,759
Speaker 12: said that he's not in favor of this six week

784
00:42:50,880 --> 00:42:53,359
Speaker 12: ban that has just or will excuse me, in thirty

785
00:42:53,440 --> 00:42:55,560
Speaker 12: days go into place, And so that means that this

786
00:42:55,680 --> 00:42:57,960
Speaker 12: is really going to be a difficult place to message

787
00:42:58,200 --> 00:43:00,719
Speaker 12: on an issue that already has been very nuanced for

788
00:43:00,800 --> 00:43:03,760
Speaker 12: the former president. It also gives a ton of leeway

789
00:43:03,840 --> 00:43:07,399
Speaker 12: an opportunity for the Democratic ticket to really message about

790
00:43:07,400 --> 00:43:11,600
Speaker 12: an issue that is absolutely definitely one that women and

791
00:43:11,680 --> 00:43:15,040
Speaker 12: families are very adamant about one way or the other.

792
00:43:16,320 --> 00:43:18,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, your point is well taken, Lisa on this being

793
00:43:18,719 --> 00:43:21,880
Speaker 2: more difficult perhaps for Donald Trump, who my producer James

794
00:43:21,880 --> 00:43:24,719
Speaker 2: reminded this morning is a resident of Florida. He could

795
00:43:24,760 --> 00:43:26,960
Speaker 2: potentially be one of the ones who has the ability

796
00:43:27,000 --> 00:43:32,440
Speaker 2: to vote on this ballot initiative come November. But Genie Florida, Now,

797
00:43:32,520 --> 00:43:36,160
Speaker 2: there have been murmurs this morning from some Democratic strategists

798
00:43:36,280 --> 00:43:40,640
Speaker 2: could potentially be a different political landscape for Democrats and

799
00:43:40,640 --> 00:43:44,600
Speaker 2: for President Biden specifically because of the abortion factor. Could

800
00:43:44,680 --> 00:43:48,280
Speaker 2: abortion being on the ballot actually put Florida in play,

801
00:43:48,880 --> 00:43:52,400
Speaker 2: make it a swing state once again, or is it

802
00:43:52,640 --> 00:43:55,640
Speaker 2: just too red for that to really be true.

803
00:43:55,920 --> 00:43:58,960
Speaker 13: Yeah, I think to myself that's a bit of wishful

804
00:43:59,040 --> 00:44:01,400
Speaker 13: thinking on the part of Democrats, you know, Kaylee like

805
00:44:01,480 --> 00:44:04,080
Speaker 13: about six months a year ago, we were hearing that

806
00:44:04,200 --> 00:44:06,759
Speaker 13: from Democrats and they said, look at Florida may be

807
00:44:06,920 --> 00:44:10,880
Speaker 13: up for grabs, but there is an enormous, an enormous

808
00:44:10,920 --> 00:44:14,279
Speaker 13: advantage for Republicans, not only in registration. I think it's

809
00:44:14,280 --> 00:44:17,239
Speaker 13: about eight hundred and fifty thousand more Republicans now in

810
00:44:17,320 --> 00:44:20,840
Speaker 13: the state than Democrats. They also are so much better

811
00:44:20,960 --> 00:44:23,680
Speaker 13: organized on the ground, and we've seen that play out

812
00:44:23,680 --> 00:44:27,120
Speaker 13: in the last couple election cycles. So I'm not sure

813
00:44:27,160 --> 00:44:29,760
Speaker 13: it puts the state up for grabs. And of course,

814
00:44:30,000 --> 00:44:33,439
Speaker 13: if that's to happen, Democrats would have to invest money,

815
00:44:33,480 --> 00:44:35,800
Speaker 13: and we haven't seen evidence of that yet.

816
00:44:36,280 --> 00:44:38,360
Speaker 5: But I do think, you know, as we look.

817
00:44:38,160 --> 00:44:41,880
Speaker 13: Across the country, and we're seeing this in Nevada, Arizona, Michigan,

818
00:44:41,960 --> 00:44:44,640
Speaker 13: when they're putting abortion on the ballot. One thing we

819
00:44:44,800 --> 00:44:48,680
Speaker 13: know since the overturning of Rome is every time abortion

820
00:44:48,840 --> 00:44:51,839
Speaker 13: or reproductive rights has been on the ballot, it has won.

821
00:44:52,520 --> 00:44:55,319
Speaker 13: And so Democrats are hoping that by putting it on

822
00:44:55,440 --> 00:44:59,920
Speaker 13: the ballot, even people in the moderate middle who support

823
00:45:00,120 --> 00:45:04,160
Speaker 13: reproductive rights and who aren't as crazy about Joe Biden

824
00:45:04,200 --> 00:45:06,319
Speaker 13: are not as sort of incentivized to get out for

825
00:45:06,400 --> 00:45:06,960
Speaker 13: vote for it.

826
00:45:06,960 --> 00:45:07,680
Speaker 6: To vote for him.

827
00:45:08,120 --> 00:45:12,080
Speaker 13: May go out and vote for him because they're energized

828
00:45:12,120 --> 00:45:15,319
Speaker 13: by this issue, and you know, it's that issue of

829
00:45:15,640 --> 00:45:18,400
Speaker 13: getting their voter and their base out that's going to

830
00:45:18,520 --> 00:45:22,000
Speaker 13: decide this election. So from that perspective, all across the

831
00:45:22,000 --> 00:45:26,840
Speaker 13: country they're hoping that this helps them on the Democratic side.

832
00:45:27,080 --> 00:45:29,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, Genie, you bring up an excellent point about the

833
00:45:29,160 --> 00:45:31,920
Speaker 2: pattern you've seen in the post Row era of what

834
00:45:32,040 --> 00:45:33,920
Speaker 2: happened in the midterms and twenty twenty and what has

835
00:45:33,920 --> 00:45:39,080
Speaker 2: happened in special elections or the like in states since then.

836
00:45:39,560 --> 00:45:42,760
Speaker 2: Are Democrats, though over reliant on the idea of abortion

837
00:45:42,960 --> 00:45:46,040
Speaker 2: being a galvanizing for Genie, considering that every month we

838
00:45:46,120 --> 00:45:49,440
Speaker 2: get closer to the election, it's a month further from

839
00:45:50,040 --> 00:45:52,520
Speaker 2: the actual Dobbs decision in the overturning of Row.

840
00:45:54,080 --> 00:45:57,439
Speaker 13: Yeah, and that's exactly why they are trying to make

841
00:45:57,480 --> 00:45:59,839
Speaker 13: sure that these issues are on the ballot, to show

842
00:45:59,880 --> 00:46:02,040
Speaker 13: that to your point, it's not just something that happened

843
00:46:02,040 --> 00:46:04,319
Speaker 13: in the past that we can move on from, but

844
00:46:04,400 --> 00:46:08,360
Speaker 13: it's very much in your state. It's very much local

845
00:46:08,400 --> 00:46:11,480
Speaker 13: and important to you, and these states may be threatening

846
00:46:11,520 --> 00:46:14,719
Speaker 13: to restrict these rights and of course, to you know

847
00:46:14,840 --> 00:46:17,560
Speaker 13: Lisa's point, Donald Trump has sort of been all over

848
00:46:17,600 --> 00:46:20,520
Speaker 13: the map on the issue of reproductive rights, from you know,

849
00:46:20,600 --> 00:46:24,800
Speaker 13: taking credit for overturning Row to talking about several weeks

850
00:46:24,960 --> 00:46:28,120
Speaker 13: swings by which he might want to allow there to

851
00:46:28,160 --> 00:46:30,839
Speaker 13: be abortioned. So it's not a good issue for him.

852
00:46:31,360 --> 00:46:34,760
Speaker 13: But you know, the Democrats hope that this is going

853
00:46:34,800 --> 00:46:38,520
Speaker 13: to say not only turn out voters, but sort of

854
00:46:38,600 --> 00:46:41,600
Speaker 13: get them to vote for Joe Biden. We also haven't

855
00:46:41,640 --> 00:46:44,000
Speaker 13: seen a lot of evidence of that either, so we

856
00:46:44,120 --> 00:46:46,960
Speaker 13: have to be careful about that. You know, it was

857
00:46:47,040 --> 00:46:50,680
Speaker 13: in Florida in twenty twenty donald Trump won, but the

858
00:46:50,760 --> 00:46:53,880
Speaker 13: state also approved the fifteen dollars minimum wage, which just

859
00:46:53,960 --> 00:46:56,719
Speaker 13: tells you that voters in Florida and elsewhere they can

860
00:46:56,760 --> 00:46:59,399
Speaker 13: split the baby just like anybody else. They can vote

861
00:46:59,440 --> 00:47:02,320
Speaker 13: for one thing and something else. So it's not always

862
00:47:02,360 --> 00:47:04,640
Speaker 13: going to line up like I vote for this ballot

863
00:47:04,640 --> 00:47:07,880
Speaker 13: measure and I support Joe Biden. They can also support

864
00:47:07,960 --> 00:47:09,840
Speaker 13: Donald Trump under those circumstances.

865
00:47:11,000 --> 00:47:14,600
Speaker 2: Well, Lissa, obviously you have spoken about the difficulty Trump

866
00:47:14,680 --> 00:47:17,799
Speaker 2: in particular has with this abortion issue, but he's not

867
00:47:17,800 --> 00:47:20,040
Speaker 2: going to be the only one on the ballot in November.

868
00:47:20,080 --> 00:47:22,120
Speaker 2: There will be all the down ballot races as well.

869
00:47:22,200 --> 00:47:27,240
Speaker 2: People vying for congressional seats have Republicans written large figured

870
00:47:27,239 --> 00:47:30,360
Speaker 2: out how they want to message abortion this election cycle.

871
00:47:30,400 --> 00:47:33,400
Speaker 2: Given everything that Genie just said about how much Democrats

872
00:47:33,440 --> 00:47:35,240
Speaker 2: are leading into this issue.

873
00:47:35,520 --> 00:47:37,440
Speaker 12: Oh no, I don't think anybody's agreed on anything on

874
00:47:37,480 --> 00:47:39,759
Speaker 12: this issue a Cayley at all. But I do think

875
00:47:39,840 --> 00:47:43,440
Speaker 12: though that there are a few things that will actually

876
00:47:43,480 --> 00:47:45,439
Speaker 12: work in favor. I love how you made the point

877
00:47:45,480 --> 00:47:48,680
Speaker 12: about Dobbs being every time we get closer to the election,

878
00:47:48,800 --> 00:47:51,040
Speaker 12: we get further away from the decision. But over the

879
00:47:51,080 --> 00:47:53,399
Speaker 12: course of time there have been all of these other

880
00:47:54,000 --> 00:47:56,719
Speaker 12: actions and activities that have happened that continue to keep

881
00:47:56,719 --> 00:48:01,480
Speaker 12: the story alive. The issue of IVA, the issue of

882
00:48:01,520 --> 00:48:04,680
Speaker 12: whether it should be six weeks, twelve weeks, eighteen weeks.

883
00:48:05,120 --> 00:48:08,480
Speaker 12: Regardless of all of that, it is incredibly nuanced discussion

884
00:48:08,480 --> 00:48:12,120
Speaker 12: and incredibly difficult for really any elected official, Republican or

885
00:48:12,200 --> 00:48:14,960
Speaker 12: Democrat to talk about unless they are in favor of

886
00:48:15,080 --> 00:48:17,960
Speaker 12: female of women's rights right, and so that makes it

887
00:48:18,080 --> 00:48:20,439
Speaker 12: very difficult. So it could be that Donald Trump would

888
00:48:20,440 --> 00:48:23,040
Speaker 12: have one point of view and someone down ballot could

889
00:48:23,040 --> 00:48:24,759
Speaker 12: have a very different point of view, so it could

890
00:48:24,760 --> 00:48:27,600
Speaker 12: have an impact on one or another. I think, though,

891
00:48:27,640 --> 00:48:30,759
Speaker 12: to Ginie's point, that this for the Democrats, as long

892
00:48:30,800 --> 00:48:33,880
Speaker 12: as they don't overplay their hand, could very well be

893
00:48:34,000 --> 00:48:37,120
Speaker 12: the one item and the one issue that does really

894
00:48:37,160 --> 00:48:39,560
Speaker 12: help with turnout. And that's the one thing that's we're

895
00:48:39,600 --> 00:48:42,560
Speaker 12: going to continue to talk about between now and November

896
00:48:42,600 --> 00:48:45,560
Speaker 12: about how important it is to keep people engaged in

897
00:48:45,640 --> 00:48:49,000
Speaker 12: the conversation because as much as we hear that no

898
00:48:49,040 --> 00:48:51,440
Speaker 12: one on either side is really thrilled about who the

899
00:48:51,480 --> 00:48:55,160
Speaker 12: nominee is, that regardless of whoever it is, they are

900
00:48:55,200 --> 00:48:57,239
Speaker 12: going to have to think the impetus is on them

901
00:48:57,360 --> 00:48:59,920
Speaker 12: to keep people engaged and get them to the pole

902
00:49:00,200 --> 00:49:02,400
Speaker 12: in order to support them in order to be successful

903
00:49:03,000 --> 00:49:05,520
Speaker 12: after election day in twenty four and so this issue

904
00:49:05,640 --> 00:49:08,520
Speaker 12: very well could be that issue that drives turnout or

905
00:49:08,640 --> 00:49:09,520
Speaker 12: keeps people home.

906
00:49:10,960 --> 00:49:13,200
Speaker 2: So this is the issue that Democrats seem to be

907
00:49:13,239 --> 00:49:16,360
Speaker 2: relying on, at least at this point for that purpose. Lisa,

908
00:49:16,440 --> 00:49:19,560
Speaker 2: it does seem that for Republicans that issue is the border,

909
00:49:19,560 --> 00:49:22,160
Speaker 2: and perhaps we're seeing further evidence of that today when

910
00:49:22,400 --> 00:49:25,520
Speaker 2: former President Trump is making campaign stops in Michigan and

911
00:49:25,560 --> 00:49:29,640
Speaker 2: Wisconsin to talk specifically about the border. Is that ultimately

912
00:49:29,640 --> 00:49:32,120
Speaker 2: the issue that this election is going to be won

913
00:49:32,280 --> 00:49:35,239
Speaker 2: or lost on, Lisa, you.

914
00:49:35,200 --> 00:49:37,880
Speaker 12: Know, I'm not necessarily sure. I think both of these issues,

915
00:49:37,920 --> 00:49:40,280
Speaker 12: along with every other issue that relate to the economy,

916
00:49:40,320 --> 00:49:43,200
Speaker 12: will continue to be the issue that matter the most.

917
00:49:43,280 --> 00:49:46,080
Speaker 12: Everyone wants to know who is the candidate that is

918
00:49:46,120 --> 00:49:48,680
Speaker 12: going to help me help my family's bottom line and

919
00:49:48,719 --> 00:49:51,279
Speaker 12: make sure that I can do everything that I need

920
00:49:51,320 --> 00:49:56,360
Speaker 12: to do in my daily life through good economic policy,

921
00:49:56,400 --> 00:49:58,680
Speaker 12: and that I think still remains to be the issue.

922
00:49:58,719 --> 00:50:01,520
Speaker 12: And that's why I think immigration continues to be the

923
00:50:01,520 --> 00:50:04,400
Speaker 12: one that polls better, that keeps people more engaged, and

924
00:50:04,640 --> 00:50:07,279
Speaker 12: is one that is absolutely still going to be very

925
00:50:07,320 --> 00:50:10,600
Speaker 12: much part of the decision going into the voter booth

926
00:50:10,960 --> 00:50:15,160
Speaker 12: on November election Day in November. But the one thing, Kelly,

927
00:50:15,160 --> 00:50:16,719
Speaker 12: I think we have to keep in mind too, is

928
00:50:16,760 --> 00:50:19,200
Speaker 12: that Donald Trump is going to eat a little bit

929
00:50:19,200 --> 00:50:20,920
Speaker 12: of the fact that he stood in the way of

930
00:50:20,960 --> 00:50:26,920
Speaker 12: bipartisan border policy legislation in the House and the Senate,

931
00:50:26,960 --> 00:50:29,879
Speaker 12: so that will definitely lay at his feet, and Republicans

932
00:50:29,880 --> 00:50:32,279
Speaker 12: continue to try to thread the needle regardless they blame

933
00:50:32,320 --> 00:50:36,080
Speaker 12: the president, the sitting president, President Biden, on just about everything.

934
00:50:36,120 --> 00:50:38,719
Speaker 12: I mean, they tried to make the issue where the

935
00:50:38,800 --> 00:50:41,920
Speaker 12: key bridge went down in Baltimore about an immigration issue.

936
00:50:42,400 --> 00:50:44,759
Speaker 12: So everyone's going to try to thread that needle every

937
00:50:44,840 --> 00:50:48,000
Speaker 12: way they can. What's different, though, is that what we're

938
00:50:48,040 --> 00:50:49,880
Speaker 12: going to need to see out of the mouths of

939
00:50:49,920 --> 00:50:52,480
Speaker 12: these two candidates is how it is they're going to

940
00:50:52,520 --> 00:50:55,120
Speaker 12: solve that issue and also deliver on the economy in

941
00:50:55,120 --> 00:50:57,080
Speaker 12: a way that can make voters feel good about their

942
00:50:57,120 --> 00:50:59,880
Speaker 12: candidacy and their presidency in twenty four.

943
00:51:01,200 --> 00:51:04,600
Speaker 2: All right, Lisa Camuso Miller, former RNC communications director and

944
00:51:04,640 --> 00:51:08,200
Speaker 2: host of the Friday Reporter podcast, together with Genie Shanzeyo

945
00:51:08,200 --> 00:51:10,160
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Politics contributor, Thank you both.

946
00:51:13,719 --> 00:51:17,239
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

947
00:51:17,320 --> 00:51:20,120
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play

948
00:51:20,160 --> 00:51:22,799
Speaker 1: and then Proud Otto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen

949
00:51:22,880 --> 00:51:25,920
Speaker 1: on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us

950
00:51:25,960 --> 00:51:29,279
Speaker 1: live on YouTube.

951
00:51:29,640 --> 00:51:31,560
Speaker 2: Just about a mile or so down the road, President

952
00:51:31,560 --> 00:51:33,680
Speaker 2: Biden in the White House today had a pretty important

953
00:51:33,680 --> 00:51:36,200
Speaker 2: phone call. He spoke one on one for the first

954
00:51:36,200 --> 00:51:39,680
Speaker 2: time with Chinese President chijin Ping, the first time that's

955
00:51:39,719 --> 00:51:42,000
Speaker 2: happened since back in November when they had an in

956
00:51:42,000 --> 00:51:45,000
Speaker 2: person summit in San Francisco and promised that they would

957
00:51:45,040 --> 00:51:48,200
Speaker 2: talk more. Perhaps that's exactly why we saw this conversation

958
00:51:48,320 --> 00:51:50,359
Speaker 2: take place today. And according to the White House, which

959
00:51:50,400 --> 00:51:54,719
Speaker 2: called their conversation candid and constructive, they talked about a

960
00:51:54,760 --> 00:51:58,480
Speaker 2: lot of different things. AI risks efforts on climate change,

961
00:51:58,680 --> 00:52:02,480
Speaker 2: the US raising concerns with China, support for Russia, issues

962
00:52:02,480 --> 00:52:06,640
Speaker 2: with unfair trade policies also discussed in this call. It's

963
00:52:06,680 --> 00:52:08,319
Speaker 2: a lot of ground to cover, and I'm pleased to

964
00:52:08,320 --> 00:52:10,400
Speaker 2: say we're going to do so now with Sarah Bianki,

965
00:52:10,440 --> 00:52:14,960
Speaker 2: former Deputy US Trade Representative in this administration, now senior

966
00:52:14,960 --> 00:52:18,920
Speaker 2: managing director and chief strategist of International political Affairs and

967
00:52:18,960 --> 00:52:22,640
Speaker 2: Public Policy at evercore ISI. So Sarah, great to have

968
00:52:22,680 --> 00:52:25,319
Speaker 2: you back, Ambassador, Thank you very much for being here.

969
00:52:25,680 --> 00:52:28,440
Speaker 2: On balance of power, we know that Biden and she

970
00:52:28,600 --> 00:52:32,840
Speaker 2: had promised they would talk more. They talked more today.

971
00:52:33,320 --> 00:52:36,400
Speaker 2: I just question what the real tangible outcome of such

972
00:52:36,440 --> 00:52:37,319
Speaker 2: talks really are.

973
00:52:39,040 --> 00:52:42,360
Speaker 6: Well, I think it's important to keep the dialogue going.

974
00:52:42,920 --> 00:52:46,520
Speaker 6: There are so many things at stake in this relationship

975
00:52:47,360 --> 00:52:51,279
Speaker 6: for these countries on the issues you mentioned, from a

976
00:52:51,280 --> 00:52:55,439
Speaker 6: climate to trade. There are some really difficult issues right

977
00:52:55,480 --> 00:53:01,880
Speaker 6: now with China trade, particularly the administration's actions on electric

978
00:53:02,000 --> 00:53:05,600
Speaker 6: vehicles coming in from China. But there's also some places

979
00:53:05,680 --> 00:53:10,600
Speaker 6: where there's hope for collaboration, such as climate. President Biden

980
00:53:10,640 --> 00:53:13,000
Speaker 6: has known she for a very very long time, so

981
00:53:13,120 --> 00:53:15,920
Speaker 6: I am actually encouraged to see that their touching base.

982
00:53:16,000 --> 00:53:19,080
Speaker 6: Even as you said, there's not real tangible progress.

983
00:53:20,120 --> 00:53:22,000
Speaker 2: Well, and of course this doesn't just happen at this

984
00:53:22,200 --> 00:53:25,400
Speaker 2: highest level between the two presidents. The cabinet officials have

985
00:53:25,440 --> 00:53:28,160
Speaker 2: been making their way kind of in rotation to visit

986
00:53:28,239 --> 00:53:31,080
Speaker 2: China in person as well. The Secretary of the Treasury,

987
00:53:31,160 --> 00:53:34,560
Speaker 2: Janney Yellen, will be doing so later this week, talking

988
00:53:34,840 --> 00:53:37,880
Speaker 2: about a lot of the economic and trade. As you

989
00:53:37,920 --> 00:53:42,239
Speaker 2: talk about parts of this relationship, what is most imperative

990
00:53:42,600 --> 00:53:46,000
Speaker 2: in terms of the economic relationship between these two largest

991
00:53:46,040 --> 00:53:49,240
Speaker 2: economies in the world right now, Well.

992
00:53:49,120 --> 00:53:50,680
Speaker 6: I think a lot of what you're going to see

993
00:53:50,719 --> 00:53:54,960
Speaker 6: Secretary Ellen talking about is the over capacity and production

994
00:53:55,840 --> 00:54:00,520
Speaker 6: in China that is causing risks to the global and

995
00:54:01,080 --> 00:54:03,879
Speaker 6: also some of the trade practices that we've seen. There's

996
00:54:03,920 --> 00:54:09,280
Speaker 6: a lot of subsidization of particular industries in the Chinese economy.

997
00:54:09,320 --> 00:54:12,279
Speaker 6: There's a lot of non market practices and policies. These

998
00:54:12,320 --> 00:54:14,200
Speaker 6: are the kinds of things that are going to be

999
00:54:14,800 --> 00:54:18,720
Speaker 6: on the agenda when Secretary Yellen it goes later this week.

1000
00:54:20,160 --> 00:54:23,120
Speaker 2: Well, and just specifically on trade policy. Of course, we

1001
00:54:23,160 --> 00:54:27,399
Speaker 2: saw tariffs implemented during the prior administration, during the Trump administration,

1002
00:54:27,719 --> 00:54:31,239
Speaker 2: and that has not been reversed in this Biden administration.

1003
00:54:31,280 --> 00:54:33,240
Speaker 2: When we think about tariffs and kind of the idea

1004
00:54:33,280 --> 00:54:37,040
Speaker 2: of protectionism overall, is this really only likely to go

1005
00:54:37,160 --> 00:54:41,520
Speaker 2: in one direction from here, which is further protectionism?

1006
00:54:41,880 --> 00:54:45,040
Speaker 6: Sarah Well, I think what you've tried to see the

1007
00:54:45,040 --> 00:54:48,319
Speaker 6: Biden administration try and do is to really focus on

1008
00:54:48,440 --> 00:54:55,319
Speaker 6: industries where they are particularly concerned semiconductors, AI, things with

1009
00:54:55,520 --> 00:54:59,040
Speaker 6: high technology risks. So you've seen a lot of new

1010
00:54:59,080 --> 00:55:03,040
Speaker 6: actions from the Biden administration on export controls. You have,

1011
00:55:03,160 --> 00:55:07,000
Speaker 6: as you mentioned, seeing terrorists are kept in place, and

1012
00:55:07,040 --> 00:55:10,520
Speaker 6: that is one policy tool. But I think the Biden

1013
00:55:10,520 --> 00:55:15,080
Speaker 6: administration's notion of small yard high fences requires a whole

1014
00:55:15,200 --> 00:55:19,799
Speaker 6: range of tools, again, export controls, as well as investing

1015
00:55:19,840 --> 00:55:22,480
Speaker 6: in some of our own industries. Here in the United States.

1016
00:55:23,960 --> 00:55:25,759
Speaker 2: Well, of course we're faced though with the question of

1017
00:55:25,760 --> 00:55:29,120
Speaker 2: whether we'll still be talking about a Biden administration come

1018
00:55:29,440 --> 00:55:31,759
Speaker 2: January twenty twenty five, or if we will once again

1019
00:55:31,800 --> 00:55:34,680
Speaker 2: be talking about a Trump administration. And we have heard

1020
00:55:34,960 --> 00:55:39,080
Speaker 2: a lot from former President Trump presidential candidate Trump about

1021
00:55:39,080 --> 00:55:41,520
Speaker 2: what he would like to do in terms of China policy,

1022
00:55:41,560 --> 00:55:45,520
Speaker 2: talking about the prospect of potentially sixty percent plus tariffs

1023
00:55:45,560 --> 00:55:49,040
Speaker 2: on all Chinese goods, especially when the messaging from the

1024
00:55:49,120 --> 00:55:53,120
Speaker 2: US right now is intentionally that we are not decoupling, diversifying,

1025
00:55:53,400 --> 00:55:55,759
Speaker 2: friend shoring, whatever you want to call it. Could the

1026
00:55:55,800 --> 00:55:58,360
Speaker 2: same be said about what might happen under a future

1027
00:55:58,520 --> 00:56:03,280
Speaker 2: Trump administration or of that level, essentially just an outright decoupling.

1028
00:56:05,239 --> 00:56:08,640
Speaker 6: Well, President Trump has always been an air mirrored as

1029
00:56:08,719 --> 00:56:11,680
Speaker 6: tariffs as a major policy tool, and we very much

1030
00:56:11,719 --> 00:56:15,800
Speaker 6: expect that a second Trump administration would use this tool,

1031
00:56:15,880 --> 00:56:19,280
Speaker 6: not only as you mentioned with China where they're talking

1032
00:56:19,280 --> 00:56:24,840
Speaker 6: about particularly high numbers, but also a US allies, Europe, Mexico,

1033
00:56:25,000 --> 00:56:29,200
Speaker 6: other places. This is something we saw in the first

1034
00:56:29,200 --> 00:56:33,200
Speaker 6: Trump administration and we're very have a lot of conviction

1035
00:56:33,320 --> 00:56:36,120
Speaker 6: that it is something we would continue to see sixty

1036
00:56:36,160 --> 00:56:38,960
Speaker 6: percent is a very very large number that would certainly

1037
00:56:39,040 --> 00:56:45,560
Speaker 6: have a vast economic inflationary proposals. You could do some

1038
00:56:45,680 --> 00:56:49,000
Speaker 6: of that without the Congress, so it is a real risk.

1039
00:56:49,680 --> 00:56:51,719
Speaker 6: My guess is that they would come down a bit

1040
00:56:51,760 --> 00:56:55,960
Speaker 6: from this number given the global economic implications, or at

1041
00:56:56,040 --> 00:56:59,760
Speaker 6: least focus it on particular sectors. But we very much

1042
00:57:00,160 --> 00:57:03,480
Speaker 6: believe that a second Trump term would have a lot

1043
00:57:03,480 --> 00:57:07,120
Speaker 6: of care iff in many sectors and have some very

1044
00:57:07,600 --> 00:57:10,560
Speaker 6: important inflationary impacts to the economy.

1045
00:57:11,200 --> 00:57:14,160
Speaker 2: Well many sectors, And essentially what you're saying could be

1046
00:57:14,160 --> 00:57:16,880
Speaker 2: many countries as well, not just adversaries like China, but

1047
00:57:16,920 --> 00:57:20,520
Speaker 2: potentially allies too. And on this idea of the way

1048
00:57:20,560 --> 00:57:24,880
Speaker 2: the US handles economically both allies and adversaries, we of

1049
00:57:24,920 --> 00:57:27,400
Speaker 2: course have gotten a lot of news within recent weeks

1050
00:57:27,440 --> 00:57:30,520
Speaker 2: about one ally in particular Japan and a Japanese company,

1051
00:57:30,760 --> 00:57:34,720
Speaker 2: Nipon Steele, which is trying to buy US steel the President,

1052
00:57:35,040 --> 00:57:37,800
Speaker 2: President Biden has come out against this deal. He's trying

1053
00:57:37,800 --> 00:57:41,120
Speaker 2: to support the United steel Workers. Today, three US senators,

1054
00:57:41,160 --> 00:57:43,600
Speaker 2: including the chair of the Senate Banking Committee, Shared Brown,

1055
00:57:43,680 --> 00:57:46,880
Speaker 2: have penned a letter to President Biden calling specifically for

1056
00:57:47,080 --> 00:57:51,920
Speaker 2: the administration to be investigating Nipon's ties and business in China,

1057
00:57:52,400 --> 00:57:55,040
Speaker 2: and I just I wonder, Sarah, how we should be

1058
00:57:55,080 --> 00:57:57,360
Speaker 2: thinking about this, whether this is kind of a unique

1059
00:57:57,440 --> 00:58:00,760
Speaker 2: case or instead just an example of something more broadly

1060
00:58:00,880 --> 00:58:06,040
Speaker 2: happening here in regard to economic nationalism and US ownership

1061
00:58:06,360 --> 00:58:07,360
Speaker 2: of US companies.

1062
00:58:09,240 --> 00:58:11,960
Speaker 6: Well, I think it's an interesting uh. You know, President

1063
00:58:12,000 --> 00:58:15,520
Speaker 6: Biden has had a very very long standing relationship with

1064
00:58:15,560 --> 00:58:19,800
Speaker 6: the steel workers back from his Senate day. He's a

1065
00:58:20,080 --> 00:58:25,040
Speaker 6: very labor is a very important stakeholder to him. He

1066
00:58:25,160 --> 00:58:29,480
Speaker 6: understands those communities. Again, given the state he represented in

1067
00:58:29,520 --> 00:58:32,800
Speaker 6: the region of the country. I think what you are

1068
00:58:32,880 --> 00:58:37,600
Speaker 6: seeing in both these candidates is a belief that we

1069
00:58:37,720 --> 00:58:40,840
Speaker 6: really do need to invest in the United States and

1070
00:58:40,920 --> 00:58:44,840
Speaker 6: invest here at home, and they have different approaches to

1071
00:58:44,920 --> 00:58:48,560
Speaker 6: getting at this goal. With Biden, you've seen the Inflation

1072
00:58:48,640 --> 00:58:52,160
Speaker 6: Reduction Act, You've seen the Chips Act, Infrastructure are really

1073
00:58:52,280 --> 00:58:56,800
Speaker 6: investing in in the United States and trying to get

1074
00:58:56,840 --> 00:59:01,720
Speaker 6: honestly some foreign investment as well. The South Korea is

1075
00:59:01,760 --> 00:59:05,360
Speaker 6: one of the biggest investors out of the Inflation Reduction Act.

1076
00:59:05,800 --> 00:59:08,680
Speaker 6: With Trump, you see a bit more of tariffs and

1077
00:59:09,160 --> 00:59:12,040
Speaker 6: kind of trying to put a wall, if you will,

1078
00:59:12,120 --> 00:59:16,920
Speaker 6: around the United States. So very very different approaches, lots

1079
00:59:16,920 --> 00:59:21,840
Speaker 6: of debates about the effectiveness of each, but both these

1080
00:59:21,960 --> 00:59:27,280
Speaker 6: candidates do have one thread they're very much interested in

1081
00:59:27,960 --> 00:59:29,560
Speaker 6: building here in the US.

1082
00:59:31,400 --> 00:59:34,000
Speaker 2: All right, Ambassador, thank you very much for joining us

1083
00:59:34,040 --> 00:59:36,400
Speaker 2: here on Balance of Power. Sarah Bianki of course, former

1084
00:59:36,440 --> 00:59:40,480
Speaker 2: deputy US Trade Representative and now at Evercore Isi very

1085
00:59:40,560 --> 00:59:45,760
Speaker 2: much straddling policy how financial markets should view it.

1086
00:59:48,480 --> 00:59:50,920
Speaker 5: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast.

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Speaker 4: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify.

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Speaker 1: Or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find

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Speaker 1: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at newt Time

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Speaker 1: Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.