1 00:00:03,360 --> 00:00:06,680 Speaker 1: Hello, Welcome to Stephanomics, the podcast that brings the global 2 00:00:06,720 --> 00:00:15,319 Speaker 1: economy to you. I have to tell you this is 3 00:00:15,360 --> 00:00:18,320 Speaker 1: the last episode of this series. We're packing a lot in. 4 00:00:18,640 --> 00:00:21,880 Speaker 1: I'm recording from the historic Mount Washington Hotel in Breton 5 00:00:21,880 --> 00:00:24,440 Speaker 1: Woods in New Hampshire, where I've been at an eclectic 6 00:00:24,480 --> 00:00:29,320 Speaker 1: gathering of intellectuals and finance folks commemorating the anniversary of 7 00:00:29,360 --> 00:00:32,279 Speaker 1: that famous Breton Woods Conference when the Allied Powers got 8 00:00:32,320 --> 00:00:34,960 Speaker 1: together after World War Two to set down the rules 9 00:00:35,000 --> 00:00:38,040 Speaker 1: for a new world economic order, and they created key 10 00:00:38,040 --> 00:00:40,760 Speaker 1: institutions like the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. 11 00:00:41,520 --> 00:00:44,120 Speaker 1: Later you'll hear me chatting with a former US executive 12 00:00:44,159 --> 00:00:46,800 Speaker 1: director of the IMAT about the kind of global economic 13 00:00:46,840 --> 00:00:50,080 Speaker 1: cooperation we need today. I also caught up with the 14 00:00:50,120 --> 00:00:54,760 Speaker 1: economist Neurial Rubini. We talked about why he hates cryptocurrencies 15 00:00:55,080 --> 00:00:58,720 Speaker 1: and what's going to cause the next financial crisis. But first, 16 00:00:58,960 --> 00:01:00,960 Speaker 1: we have the battle over the future of the global 17 00:01:01,000 --> 00:01:04,959 Speaker 1: economy that's happening right now on the Mexican border. You'll 18 00:01:05,000 --> 00:01:09,080 Speaker 1: remember President Trump shocked everyone threatening to slap big tariffs 19 00:01:09,080 --> 00:01:11,440 Speaker 1: on Mexico for failing to stop the flow of Central 20 00:01:11,480 --> 00:01:15,400 Speaker 1: American migrants from south to north. Now, after emergency talks, 21 00:01:15,440 --> 00:01:19,000 Speaker 1: the Americans gave the Mexican President, Andres Manuel Lopez, a 22 00:01:19,120 --> 00:01:23,120 Speaker 1: bred known by his initials Amblow, forty five days to 23 00:01:23,200 --> 00:01:26,560 Speaker 1: do better tackling the problem. He's now sent a new 24 00:01:26,560 --> 00:01:30,080 Speaker 1: federal force down to police the country's porous and geographically 25 00:01:30,240 --> 00:01:34,280 Speaker 1: messy border with Guatemala, where people and goods have previously 26 00:01:34,400 --> 00:01:39,000 Speaker 1: flowed freely. Bloomberg Economy reporter Eric Martin decided to go 27 00:01:39,120 --> 00:01:51,680 Speaker 1: see what was happening here. On the banks of the 28 00:01:51,680 --> 00:01:55,920 Speaker 1: Succa River. There's a constant buzz of activity. Locals make 29 00:01:55,960 --> 00:01:58,760 Speaker 1: their living haulling goods onto rickety rafts made a fly 30 00:01:58,840 --> 00:02:03,040 Speaker 1: within rubber tires. The cargo depends on the direction from 31 00:02:03,040 --> 00:02:06,280 Speaker 1: Mexico to Guatemala. It's usually kinds of cooking oil or 32 00:02:06,320 --> 00:02:10,160 Speaker 1: bags of rice. Having the other way, it's mostly people, 33 00:02:10,919 --> 00:02:14,080 Speaker 1: many of them are bound for the US. All of it, 34 00:02:14,360 --> 00:02:19,079 Speaker 1: technically speaking, is illegal. Still, the customs and immigration officials 35 00:02:19,120 --> 00:02:22,800 Speaker 1: patrolling the international bridge have ignored it. That has helped 36 00:02:22,840 --> 00:02:25,240 Speaker 1: make the river a key economic hub in the poorest 37 00:02:25,280 --> 00:02:33,640 Speaker 1: region in Mexico. They Errta Alicia Flentis has been running 38 00:02:33,639 --> 00:02:36,320 Speaker 1: a supply store in the Mexican border town of Sida 39 00:02:36,360 --> 00:02:39,640 Speaker 1: didlgo for the past four decades. She told me that 40 00:02:39,639 --> 00:02:42,560 Speaker 1: the river Contraband is the only source of jobs for 41 00:02:42,680 --> 00:02:46,160 Speaker 1: towns on both the Mexican and Guatemalan sides of the 42 00:02:46,240 --> 00:02:52,840 Speaker 1: river want that hand. Everyone lives off of this. What 43 00:02:53,000 --> 00:02:56,519 Speaker 1: happens if it's gone, forget it? Everyone would be poor. 44 00:02:57,040 --> 00:03:02,760 Speaker 1: The merchandise needs to continue to flow, but this river 45 00:03:02,840 --> 00:03:06,880 Speaker 1: trade may not last much longer. Last month, the first 46 00:03:06,919 --> 00:03:09,840 Speaker 1: of thousands of National Guard troops arrived as part of 47 00:03:09,880 --> 00:03:19,600 Speaker 1: omlo's plans. The soldiers came with their m sixteens and 48 00:03:19,639 --> 00:03:23,200 Speaker 1: told us that they didn't want us to work. Rooster 49 00:03:23,560 --> 00:03:26,040 Speaker 1: is a thirty one year old raft captain who didn't 50 00:03:26,080 --> 00:03:28,480 Speaker 1: want to give me his real name for fear of reprisals. 51 00:03:29,480 --> 00:03:32,560 Speaker 1: He's been making a living moving goods and people across 52 00:03:32,600 --> 00:03:36,640 Speaker 1: the river for the past death. If they make it 53 00:03:36,680 --> 00:03:39,800 Speaker 1: more difficult for us to transport merchandise, we need to 54 00:03:39,800 --> 00:03:47,560 Speaker 1: figure out how to resolve the problem. The new show 55 00:03:47,560 --> 00:03:49,680 Speaker 1: of force on the border is meant to stem the 56 00:03:49,720 --> 00:03:53,280 Speaker 1: tide of migrants escaping violence and poverty in Central America. 57 00:03:54,120 --> 00:03:57,320 Speaker 1: Among them is main Orgean, a nineteen year old Honduran 58 00:03:57,360 --> 00:04:00,080 Speaker 1: migrant who told me he's making his second attempt in 59 00:04:00,200 --> 00:04:05,480 Speaker 1: less than a week to reach the US. I was 60 00:04:05,520 --> 00:04:08,160 Speaker 1: reported a week ago and I started to come back 61 00:04:08,200 --> 00:04:21,520 Speaker 1: the same day. There's no work where I leave. The 62 00:04:21,640 --> 00:04:24,800 Speaker 1: migrants crossing the river are for the most part from Guatemala, 63 00:04:25,000 --> 00:04:29,720 Speaker 1: El savor And and Duras, but people from Haiti, Cuba, Africa, 64 00:04:29,880 --> 00:04:32,839 Speaker 1: and even India have recently begun appearing in greater numbers. 65 00:04:33,680 --> 00:04:36,600 Speaker 1: Many arrived to Central America or South America by plain 66 00:04:36,920 --> 00:04:40,479 Speaker 1: and then crossed through Mexico. Bumblow admits that parts of 67 00:04:40,520 --> 00:04:44,200 Speaker 1: Mexico's seven dred mile frontier with Guatemala and Belize aren't 68 00:04:44,200 --> 00:04:48,000 Speaker 1: well policed, and he's promised to secure them. His efforts 69 00:04:48,000 --> 00:04:49,839 Speaker 1: have started to pay off, at least from the u 70 00:04:49,920 --> 00:04:54,240 Speaker 1: S perspective. Customs and Border Protection seven July that the 71 00:04:54,320 --> 00:04:57,560 Speaker 1: number of people stopped at the border fell twenty eight 72 00:04:57,560 --> 00:05:00,880 Speaker 1: percent from May to June. All the numbers tend to 73 00:05:00,920 --> 00:05:03,679 Speaker 1: decline in the summer, that's more than the usual drop. 74 00:05:04,880 --> 00:05:08,280 Speaker 1: Trump at least seems pleased he should regret up from 75 00:05:08,360 --> 00:05:12,000 Speaker 1: Mexico because the Mexican people very midst with all of 76 00:05:12,080 --> 00:05:15,599 Speaker 1: these tens of thousands of people, hundreds of thousands of 77 00:05:15,640 --> 00:05:21,000 Speaker 1: people walking through Mexico. Despite President Trump's enthusiasm, there are 78 00:05:21,040 --> 00:05:23,960 Speaker 1: many people who are skeptical about whether Mexico can stop 79 00:05:24,000 --> 00:05:27,400 Speaker 1: migrants in the long term. Among them, as Duncan would, 80 00:05:28,200 --> 00:05:30,800 Speaker 1: he's the director of the Mexico Institute at the Woodrow 81 00:05:30,800 --> 00:05:34,880 Speaker 1: Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington. He's been studying 82 00:05:34,920 --> 00:05:38,240 Speaker 1: Mexico for more than two decades. Mexico is now become 83 00:05:38,279 --> 00:05:42,039 Speaker 1: a much more difficult piece of terrain to to to 84 00:05:42,120 --> 00:05:44,680 Speaker 1: get across, so I think that that will provide a 85 00:05:44,800 --> 00:05:47,359 Speaker 1: terrant effect in the in the short term, but in 86 00:05:47,400 --> 00:05:50,080 Speaker 1: the long term, I feel as though we're going to 87 00:05:50,160 --> 00:05:54,120 Speaker 1: see similar numbers of migrants coming through Mexico. They will 88 00:05:54,200 --> 00:05:59,359 Speaker 1: learn to get around the various checkpoints. Mexican soldier has 89 00:05:59,440 --> 00:06:02,400 Speaker 1: visited the Chats River a week after the government promised 90 00:06:02,440 --> 00:06:05,200 Speaker 1: to step up efforts to patrol the border, but locals 91 00:06:05,200 --> 00:06:08,800 Speaker 1: told me they quickly withdrew arguments with the raft operators 92 00:06:08,880 --> 00:06:12,400 Speaker 1: threatened to spill over into violence. Mexico is likely to 93 00:06:12,440 --> 00:06:15,200 Speaker 1: face more challenges as it attempts to balance the protection 94 00:06:15,200 --> 00:06:18,040 Speaker 1: of human rights against the pressure from the American government. 95 00:06:19,000 --> 00:06:22,760 Speaker 1: It's understandable why we saw the calls from the United 96 00:06:22,760 --> 00:06:26,040 Speaker 1: States government for Mexico to do more. What I think 97 00:06:26,920 --> 00:06:30,960 Speaker 1: is perhaps a mistake is to push so much of 98 00:06:30,960 --> 00:06:34,359 Speaker 1: the burden onto Mexico at a time when Mexico has 99 00:06:34,760 --> 00:06:43,320 Speaker 1: severe financial and fiscal restrictions. Mexico's economy is showing signs 100 00:06:43,320 --> 00:06:48,120 Speaker 1: of weakness after years of modest if unspectacular growth. GDP 101 00:06:48,320 --> 00:06:53,200 Speaker 1: is slowing thanks in part to Trump's unpredictable behavior. Threatening 102 00:06:53,240 --> 00:06:57,200 Speaker 1: to rip up NAFTA and imposed tariffs have hurt investor confidence. 103 00:06:58,040 --> 00:07:01,440 Speaker 1: While Trump has been focused on undock minted migration, the 104 00:07:01,560 --> 00:07:04,480 Speaker 1: levels of people arriving to the US are actually below 105 00:07:04,560 --> 00:07:08,320 Speaker 1: the records from a decade ago. In recent years, as 106 00:07:08,360 --> 00:07:12,800 Speaker 1: many Mexicans have returned to Mexico as left for the US. Now, 107 00:07:12,960 --> 00:07:16,240 Speaker 1: there's a risk that Trump's pressure causes the country's economy 108 00:07:16,240 --> 00:07:19,800 Speaker 1: to weaken. That could results in fewer jobs in poor 109 00:07:19,840 --> 00:07:23,840 Speaker 1: communities like those in Chiapas, and force more Mexicans to 110 00:07:23,960 --> 00:07:28,320 Speaker 1: join Hondurans, Salvadorans, and Guatemalans in seeking work in the US. 111 00:07:28,960 --> 00:07:33,840 Speaker 1: Here's duncan Wood again. Overall, the deterrent measures that we're 112 00:07:33,840 --> 00:07:37,320 Speaker 1: seeing being put in place by Mexico are probably not sustainable. 113 00:07:37,880 --> 00:07:42,760 Speaker 1: So ultimately, I think this provides a short term solution 114 00:07:42,800 --> 00:07:46,760 Speaker 1: at the very best, and we're likely to see that 115 00:07:46,920 --> 00:07:50,040 Speaker 1: in the medium to long term. The problem continues as 116 00:07:50,160 --> 00:07:55,320 Speaker 1: long as the underlying fundamental crisis in Central America is there. 117 00:07:57,400 --> 00:08:00,360 Speaker 1: Migrants from Central America are fleeing some of the highest 118 00:08:00,440 --> 00:08:04,160 Speaker 1: murder rates in the world. Many used to work in agriculture, 119 00:08:04,200 --> 00:08:08,000 Speaker 1: but they've seen their crops devastated by climate change. Their 120 00:08:08,080 --> 00:08:12,520 Speaker 1: government spend little on social services, citizens have few or 121 00:08:12,560 --> 00:08:16,160 Speaker 1: no job opportunities, and plans to develop the region could 122 00:08:16,160 --> 00:08:20,840 Speaker 1: take years. Ultimately, no amount of security on the Mexico 123 00:08:20,880 --> 00:08:25,240 Speaker 1: Gualamala border is likely to stop undocumented migration as long 124 00:08:25,280 --> 00:08:29,480 Speaker 1: as the economic attraction of the US remains. It would 125 00:08:29,520 --> 00:08:32,559 Speaker 1: be ironic if Trump's heavy handed efforts to stop the 126 00:08:32,600 --> 00:08:36,319 Speaker 1: flow of migrants end up driving even greater numbers to 127 00:08:36,440 --> 00:08:55,280 Speaker 1: seek a better life north of the Mexican border. You 128 00:08:55,400 --> 00:08:57,080 Speaker 1: heard there from one of the front lines in the 129 00:08:57,120 --> 00:09:00,120 Speaker 1: battle over the future of the global economy. I had 130 00:09:00,120 --> 00:09:03,040 Speaker 1: a chat here with Meg Lundziger, a former US executive 131 00:09:03,080 --> 00:09:04,840 Speaker 1: director of the i m F who is now a 132 00:09:04,880 --> 00:09:08,480 Speaker 1: public policy fellow at the Wilson Center in Washington. We 133 00:09:08,600 --> 00:09:11,880 Speaker 1: started by talking about the spirit of Breton Woods and 134 00:09:11,920 --> 00:09:15,000 Speaker 1: whether we could revive it to confront the big international 135 00:09:15,000 --> 00:09:20,880 Speaker 1: economic challenges the world faces today. This is pretty amazing 136 00:09:20,880 --> 00:09:24,960 Speaker 1: when you look back that these delegates committed their governments 137 00:09:25,000 --> 00:09:27,920 Speaker 1: to treaty organizations, meaning you give up a little bit 138 00:09:27,920 --> 00:09:31,280 Speaker 1: of sovereignty by signing on to a treaty. But they 139 00:09:31,280 --> 00:09:35,720 Speaker 1: all got their home governments to ratify it. And these 140 00:09:35,840 --> 00:09:38,960 Speaker 1: organizations have continued and have had to change in many, 141 00:09:39,000 --> 00:09:43,000 Speaker 1: many different ways, but still been very effective over the 142 00:09:43,080 --> 00:09:46,560 Speaker 1: years of dealing with crises. With that said, it's hard 143 00:09:46,600 --> 00:09:50,880 Speaker 1: to predict the future and how we know today what's 144 00:09:50,920 --> 00:09:52,960 Speaker 1: going to drive us to agree. We don't have that 145 00:09:53,040 --> 00:09:55,360 Speaker 1: same sense of fear. In some respects, we are to 146 00:09:55,520 --> 00:09:57,280 Speaker 1: because there are a lot of different things going on 147 00:09:57,520 --> 00:10:01,600 Speaker 1: that create fear. But over all, in the political classes 148 00:10:01,600 --> 00:10:04,840 Speaker 1: and the governments, there's not a unifying sense of what 149 00:10:04,960 --> 00:10:07,800 Speaker 1: that overarching problem is and what we should do about it. 150 00:10:07,840 --> 00:10:09,840 Speaker 1: And you see it every day in the press, you're 151 00:10:09,880 --> 00:10:13,920 Speaker 1: reporting on it. Just how we all just see the 152 00:10:13,920 --> 00:10:16,280 Speaker 1: world so completely different. I mean by we are our 153 00:10:16,360 --> 00:10:20,400 Speaker 1: leaders and then there's very little chance that there would 154 00:10:20,400 --> 00:10:23,880 Speaker 1: be anything this dramatic as the same as the Breton 155 00:10:23,920 --> 00:10:26,760 Speaker 1: Woods institutions coming out. But that was one thing this 156 00:10:26,920 --> 00:10:29,760 Speaker 1: volume that we put together at the Breton Woods Committee 157 00:10:29,760 --> 00:10:34,280 Speaker 1: this year. If you read Paul Boker's first essay, it's 158 00:10:34,280 --> 00:10:37,080 Speaker 1: all about the spirit of Breton Wood's not that he's 159 00:10:37,200 --> 00:10:40,560 Speaker 1: urging global leaders to come up with a whole new system, 160 00:10:40,679 --> 00:10:43,960 Speaker 1: but that he's urging them to remember, we need to 161 00:10:43,960 --> 00:10:46,640 Speaker 1: cooperate if we're going to handle problems, if we're going 162 00:10:46,679 --> 00:10:50,360 Speaker 1: to anticipate what's coming, if we're going to find ways 163 00:10:50,400 --> 00:10:53,680 Speaker 1: to all be part of the solution, which at times 164 00:10:53,720 --> 00:10:57,440 Speaker 1: means making a commitment to others so that you all benefit. 165 00:10:57,679 --> 00:11:00,360 Speaker 1: And that's hard to find these days. And of course, 166 00:11:00,360 --> 00:11:02,720 Speaker 1: as most people listening well know, but that's the former 167 00:11:02,800 --> 00:11:05,720 Speaker 1: FED chair from from back in the eighties, Paul Worker. 168 00:11:06,120 --> 00:11:10,000 Speaker 1: And we had a report this week from the Mexican 169 00:11:10,080 --> 00:11:16,000 Speaker 1: border talking about the irony that you could have extent 170 00:11:16,360 --> 00:11:20,720 Speaker 1: really strenuous efforts to cut down immigration and illegal immigration 171 00:11:20,880 --> 00:11:24,040 Speaker 1: at the at the Mexican American border, with the Mexican 172 00:11:24,080 --> 00:11:26,640 Speaker 1: government under great pressure from President Trump to do that. 173 00:11:26,960 --> 00:11:30,599 Speaker 1: But at the same time President Trump's economic policies threatened 174 00:11:30,679 --> 00:11:35,040 Speaker 1: to hurt the Mexican economy and actually push more people 175 00:11:35,080 --> 00:11:38,079 Speaker 1: into trying to immigrate to the U. S Now. That's 176 00:11:38,080 --> 00:11:40,439 Speaker 1: a long way, I mean, if you listen to the footage, 177 00:11:40,520 --> 00:11:42,679 Speaker 1: is a long way from this sort of pleasant hotel 178 00:11:42,720 --> 00:11:44,200 Speaker 1: at the top of the mountain. But it struck me 179 00:11:44,960 --> 00:11:47,920 Speaker 1: that some of the issues involved in Donald Trump, donald 180 00:11:47,960 --> 00:11:53,480 Speaker 1: Trump's policy on Mexico, on immigration and his success does 181 00:11:53,559 --> 00:11:58,640 Speaker 1: symbolize some of the change in the environment since four 182 00:11:58,840 --> 00:12:02,920 Speaker 1: you talked about fear being the animating factor for the leaders. 183 00:12:03,040 --> 00:12:05,920 Speaker 1: Then you know, now instead of people being terrified of 184 00:12:05,960 --> 00:12:09,480 Speaker 1: economic nationalism and wanting never to have that conflict again, 185 00:12:10,760 --> 00:12:15,319 Speaker 1: you have globalization that people feel has not necessarily worked 186 00:12:15,360 --> 00:12:17,560 Speaker 1: for them. There's kind of a distance between these global 187 00:12:17,600 --> 00:12:22,200 Speaker 1: institutions and people in countries like the US and different 188 00:12:22,240 --> 00:12:26,120 Speaker 1: European countries, and you have US and you have immigration 189 00:12:26,320 --> 00:12:28,960 Speaker 1: figuring much more prominently than we might have thought. We 190 00:12:28,960 --> 00:12:31,880 Speaker 1: were very focused in when we think about globalization all 191 00:12:31,920 --> 00:12:34,800 Speaker 1: these years. We've been very focused on goods trade and 192 00:12:35,240 --> 00:12:37,760 Speaker 1: how do you deal with flows of money and maybe 193 00:12:37,800 --> 00:12:40,440 Speaker 1: do we not think enough about what flows of people 194 00:12:40,520 --> 00:12:44,480 Speaker 1: are going to mean for individual communities and for and 195 00:12:44,559 --> 00:12:48,680 Speaker 1: for our politics. We didn't think at all about that perfectly, 196 00:12:49,160 --> 00:12:52,200 Speaker 1: and it's certainly not the big migration flows that we've 197 00:12:52,200 --> 00:12:54,760 Speaker 1: all seen in our countries. I mean, why is the 198 00:12:54,880 --> 00:12:58,360 Speaker 1: UK leaving the EU? And immigration has been one of 199 00:12:58,400 --> 00:13:01,360 Speaker 1: the big reasons, and it's been a fear in in 200 00:13:01,400 --> 00:13:03,520 Speaker 1: the US too. It's a little hard for me because 201 00:13:03,559 --> 00:13:07,400 Speaker 1: I'm an immigrant to uh there's a lot of them about. Yeah, 202 00:13:07,400 --> 00:13:10,880 Speaker 1: a lot of us are here and love this country 203 00:13:10,920 --> 00:13:13,240 Speaker 1: and have made it a home and wanted to do well. 204 00:13:13,360 --> 00:13:15,480 Speaker 1: So it's a little hard, you know. And I mean 205 00:13:15,559 --> 00:13:19,120 Speaker 1: the immigrants I see who are frankly taking care of 206 00:13:19,160 --> 00:13:21,680 Speaker 1: my lawn and cleaning my house. They're here and they're 207 00:13:21,720 --> 00:13:24,000 Speaker 1: working hard, and they're doing a lot of things that 208 00:13:24,760 --> 00:13:28,320 Speaker 1: many Americans really have no interest in doing. So I 209 00:13:28,480 --> 00:13:32,200 Speaker 1: welcome that they're here, they're working hard, and I think 210 00:13:32,240 --> 00:13:35,200 Speaker 1: the US has to be a little more open to this. 211 00:13:35,920 --> 00:13:38,400 Speaker 1: With that said, I guess a lot of people feel 212 00:13:38,480 --> 00:13:42,280 Speaker 1: jobs are being taken away. I'm not quite sure where 213 00:13:43,200 --> 00:13:46,720 Speaker 1: the jobs that have kept the middle class going, you know, 214 00:13:46,840 --> 00:13:50,840 Speaker 1: manufacturing services, that a whole lot of that is being 215 00:13:50,880 --> 00:13:54,880 Speaker 1: taken away by immigrants coming from Central America. I don't 216 00:13:54,880 --> 00:13:57,160 Speaker 1: get that sense. So At times, it's hard for me 217 00:13:57,200 --> 00:14:01,040 Speaker 1: to puzzle where this fear has come from. And sometimes 218 00:14:01,080 --> 00:14:04,880 Speaker 1: I feel like it's an overly manufactured fear on the 219 00:14:04,920 --> 00:14:08,920 Speaker 1: political classes on President Trump, that it's not really a 220 00:14:08,960 --> 00:14:12,400 Speaker 1: threat now. At the same time, we also have, because 221 00:14:12,440 --> 00:14:15,200 Speaker 1: of his announcements and policies, this effort of more to 222 00:14:15,240 --> 00:14:17,640 Speaker 1: come to the US the families get here before the 223 00:14:17,679 --> 00:14:21,600 Speaker 1: borders completely shut down. So we've kind of created this 224 00:14:21,680 --> 00:14:26,120 Speaker 1: conundrum for ourselves. And as you pointed out in the beginning, 225 00:14:27,280 --> 00:14:31,280 Speaker 1: by some of the other policies, we've made it more 226 00:14:31,280 --> 00:14:34,240 Speaker 1: difficult for these countries to thrive to grow, you know, 227 00:14:34,320 --> 00:14:37,440 Speaker 1: threatening to leave NAFTA. So of course that's going to 228 00:14:37,480 --> 00:14:40,080 Speaker 1: instead of ize more to come to the United States 229 00:14:40,080 --> 00:14:43,320 Speaker 1: for a better life. So I think there needs to 230 00:14:43,360 --> 00:14:45,680 Speaker 1: be a little bit deeper thinking of all the inner 231 00:14:45,680 --> 00:14:49,240 Speaker 1: linkages of the policies in this administration. Well, it's interesting 232 00:14:49,280 --> 00:14:51,520 Speaker 1: because we have One thing we heard about in this 233 00:14:51,640 --> 00:14:54,720 Speaker 1: conference is some of the history of the Britain was negotiations, 234 00:14:54,960 --> 00:14:57,600 Speaker 1: and it was this kind of cutthroat battle between the 235 00:14:57,640 --> 00:15:02,120 Speaker 1: American representative Harry Dexter White and the British representative John 236 00:15:02,160 --> 00:15:05,400 Speaker 1: Maynard Keynes. And there's plenty of books and and the 237 00:15:05,440 --> 00:15:10,240 Speaker 1: stories about their competition, but it was all about us, 238 00:15:10,400 --> 00:15:13,400 Speaker 1: about the US installing itself at the center of these 239 00:15:13,440 --> 00:15:15,800 Speaker 1: institutions and the center of the new system with everything 240 00:15:15,880 --> 00:15:19,840 Speaker 1: revolving around the dollar. And again, what strikes you as 241 00:15:19,880 --> 00:15:23,080 Speaker 1: a difference now is that's in a lot of the 242 00:15:23,120 --> 00:15:26,200 Speaker 1: conversations we have is about the absence of US leadership. 243 00:15:26,200 --> 00:15:28,520 Speaker 1: You have institutions that were kind of established to give 244 00:15:28,560 --> 00:15:31,880 Speaker 1: the US the ultimate decision making, the ultimate veto. Power 245 00:15:32,080 --> 00:15:34,080 Speaker 1: used to sit there with your veto in the IMF. 246 00:15:34,080 --> 00:15:36,160 Speaker 1: I don't think you used it very much, but people 247 00:15:36,240 --> 00:15:38,200 Speaker 1: cared a lot about what you believe because you was 248 00:15:38,240 --> 00:15:41,640 Speaker 1: the US. Um Do you think China is going to 249 00:15:42,240 --> 00:15:46,800 Speaker 1: fill that vacuum of sort of international economic leadership? Apparently 250 00:15:46,840 --> 00:15:49,880 Speaker 1: the they're very interested in this history about Breton Woods. 251 00:15:49,960 --> 00:15:53,320 Speaker 1: They've been. We heard that the history of the negotiations 252 00:15:53,360 --> 00:15:55,840 Speaker 1: they've been. They sold more copies in China of this 253 00:15:56,000 --> 00:16:00,720 Speaker 1: American academics book than they have in the US. You know, 254 00:16:00,880 --> 00:16:06,240 Speaker 1: that's very interesting, Stephanie, because in my experience, the Chinese 255 00:16:07,200 --> 00:16:08,640 Speaker 1: want to be part of that, They want to be 256 00:16:08,680 --> 00:16:10,600 Speaker 1: at the center of the system. They want to have 257 00:16:10,640 --> 00:16:13,520 Speaker 1: a clear voice and the decision making in the system. 258 00:16:13,520 --> 00:16:16,400 Speaker 1: But they don't really want to be number one. And 259 00:16:16,440 --> 00:16:19,400 Speaker 1: I think it's because they recognize they're really not at 260 00:16:19,400 --> 00:16:24,200 Speaker 1: the point where they can undertake that type of global leadership. 261 00:16:24,600 --> 00:16:26,760 Speaker 1: Do they want their currency? Do you want the M 262 00:16:26,840 --> 00:16:30,960 Speaker 1: and B to become the global currency? No, they certainly don't. 263 00:16:31,000 --> 00:16:33,600 Speaker 1: What do they do in their financial sector? They control things, 264 00:16:33,960 --> 00:16:37,720 Speaker 1: They control inflows and outflows, They impose capital controls, they 265 00:16:37,760 --> 00:16:42,800 Speaker 1: lift capital controls. Their monetary policy has zero independence, right, 266 00:16:42,880 --> 00:16:45,720 Speaker 1: it's they're at the behest of the government whether they 267 00:16:45,760 --> 00:16:49,320 Speaker 1: loosen the credit or tighten the credits. So um, I 268 00:16:49,360 --> 00:16:54,200 Speaker 1: think China is nowhere in the position to undertake that 269 00:16:54,400 --> 00:16:58,360 Speaker 1: leadership role in terms of guiding institutions or you know, 270 00:16:58,480 --> 00:17:02,120 Speaker 1: pulling all these country reads together. And it's interesting though 271 00:17:02,320 --> 00:17:06,840 Speaker 1: you do get international collaborations often when, as someone said 272 00:17:06,840 --> 00:17:09,720 Speaker 1: to me, when you have politicians actually looking out of 273 00:17:10,000 --> 00:17:12,520 Speaker 1: looking standing on a window ledge looking down, that's when 274 00:17:12,560 --> 00:17:16,600 Speaker 1: they start to do serious looking down at the abyss. 275 00:17:16,800 --> 00:17:19,040 Speaker 1: But even in our time in the late nineties in 276 00:17:19,080 --> 00:17:21,960 Speaker 1: the U. S. Treasury, there was a kind of healthy 277 00:17:22,000 --> 00:17:26,959 Speaker 1: competition among international leaders to have initiatives and policy proposals 278 00:17:27,000 --> 00:17:28,600 Speaker 1: and then you come back from the summit and you 279 00:17:28,680 --> 00:17:31,119 Speaker 1: say I have one with my proposal for development or 280 00:17:31,160 --> 00:17:33,200 Speaker 1: this and that. I mean, it's amazing that that is 281 00:17:33,680 --> 00:17:37,320 Speaker 1: not where the action is for most politicians. That's not 282 00:17:37,359 --> 00:17:39,760 Speaker 1: going to help them domestically. And that's all that matters 283 00:17:39,800 --> 00:17:43,040 Speaker 1: now is when the next domestic election, Right get the 284 00:17:43,119 --> 00:17:46,320 Speaker 1: leadership of the Conservative Party, when the election in twenty 285 00:17:47,359 --> 00:17:51,359 Speaker 1: right get a bigger majority in the parliament. So well, 286 00:17:51,560 --> 00:17:53,680 Speaker 1: I fear they were surrounded by lots of people doing 287 00:17:53,760 --> 00:17:56,600 Speaker 1: very exciting, innovative financial things. So we shouldn't sound too 288 00:17:56,680 --> 00:18:00,520 Speaker 1: much like sort of middle aged people bemoaning that helped 289 00:18:00,640 --> 00:18:04,240 Speaker 1: terrible world. There's been plenty of good thing LANs. Thank 290 00:18:04,280 --> 00:18:15,440 Speaker 1: you very much. Well, thank you, Stephanie Pleasure. M here 291 00:18:15,440 --> 00:18:17,879 Speaker 1: are Breton Woods. I bumped into another old friend, the 292 00:18:17,920 --> 00:18:20,680 Speaker 1: economist new Or Rubini, who's a professor at m y 293 00:18:20,760 --> 00:18:24,600 Speaker 1: U and head of Rubini Macro Associates. Recently he's been 294 00:18:24,640 --> 00:18:29,119 Speaker 1: a very public critic of cryptocurrencies. Since the conference was 295 00:18:29,280 --> 00:18:33,639 Speaker 1: organized by Bancor, a company heavily involved with cryptocurrencies, I 296 00:18:33,680 --> 00:18:37,119 Speaker 1: wondered whether he was surprised to be invited. You've been 297 00:18:37,160 --> 00:18:42,240 Speaker 1: coming out very strongly against digital currencies recently. Why why 298 00:18:42,280 --> 00:18:45,680 Speaker 1: are you so worried about them? Well, I'm not actually 299 00:18:45,680 --> 00:18:50,040 Speaker 1: worried about them. I think that the term cryptocurrencies is 300 00:18:50,119 --> 00:18:53,399 Speaker 1: a misnomer. For something to be a currency has to 301 00:18:53,440 --> 00:18:58,200 Speaker 1: be an account, a means of payment, stable store of value. 302 00:18:58,920 --> 00:19:01,480 Speaker 1: Um not with this pricing anything in bitcoin or any 303 00:19:01,480 --> 00:19:06,960 Speaker 1: other cryptocurrency. Bitcoin can only five transactions per second. The 304 00:19:07,080 --> 00:19:11,120 Speaker 1: Visa network does twenty five thousand per seconds, and it's 305 00:19:11,160 --> 00:19:14,159 Speaker 1: not the stable store of value because the price can 306 00:19:14,200 --> 00:19:16,880 Speaker 1: go up or down twenty percent in a day. That's 307 00:19:16,880 --> 00:19:19,600 Speaker 1: why even at the blockchain or crypto conferences where I go, 308 00:19:20,080 --> 00:19:22,879 Speaker 1: they don't even accept their bitcoint for paymentality of the 309 00:19:22,920 --> 00:19:25,800 Speaker 1: conference because the profit markin could be wiped out by 310 00:19:25,800 --> 00:19:28,600 Speaker 1: a sudden movement of the price, So no merchant is 311 00:19:28,600 --> 00:19:31,640 Speaker 1: going to be using it. So it's a misnumber. They're 312 00:19:31,680 --> 00:19:36,720 Speaker 1: not really currencies that the bubble does venteen collapse into 313 00:19:36,720 --> 00:19:39,879 Speaker 1: does eighteen. There's been a rally this year, but bitcoin 314 00:19:40,000 --> 00:19:42,760 Speaker 1: is still more than fifty percent below the peak. The 315 00:19:42,800 --> 00:19:46,280 Speaker 1: other top ten or eight percent belo peak, and I 316 00:19:46,280 --> 00:19:48,639 Speaker 1: think there's a little bit of a fad. But in 317 00:19:49,320 --> 00:19:52,600 Speaker 1: these crypto and quote currencies. They are not going anywhere. 318 00:19:52,680 --> 00:19:55,760 Speaker 1: They're useless, and I think there's a bigger, fading blockchain that, 319 00:19:55,840 --> 00:19:59,160 Speaker 1: in my view, is the most over hyped technology uine 320 00:19:59,240 --> 00:20:02,399 Speaker 1: history and no better than the glorified than spreadsheet. But 321 00:20:02,440 --> 00:20:06,760 Speaker 1: that's a different story. We talked last in last week's podcast, 322 00:20:06,800 --> 00:20:09,359 Speaker 1: we actually talked to the French finance Minister, Brunda Lamaire 323 00:20:09,440 --> 00:20:12,840 Speaker 1: about Libra and the extraordinary amount of attention that the 324 00:20:12,840 --> 00:20:16,119 Speaker 1: G seven finance ministers, the G twenty you mentioned, President 325 00:20:16,160 --> 00:20:19,400 Speaker 1: Trump have all been talking about this one proposal by 326 00:20:19,480 --> 00:20:24,359 Speaker 1: one company. Do you think librastor justifies the amount of 327 00:20:24,560 --> 00:20:28,720 Speaker 1: attention it is getting to some extent. First of all, 328 00:20:29,480 --> 00:20:32,760 Speaker 1: again they pretended it's going to be a blockchain tool, 329 00:20:32,840 --> 00:20:35,640 Speaker 1: but it's not. It's going to be fully centralized. So 330 00:20:35,960 --> 00:20:37,840 Speaker 1: this is a gimmick as a way to try to 331 00:20:37,880 --> 00:20:43,159 Speaker 1: avoid the unquote regulation and so on. Secondly, you know 332 00:20:43,160 --> 00:20:45,680 Speaker 1: there are two billion users on Facebook, most of them 333 00:20:45,680 --> 00:20:48,120 Speaker 1: are only mos. Anybody can sign up with fake name. 334 00:20:48,720 --> 00:20:50,480 Speaker 1: I suppose that you sign up and then you can 335 00:20:50,520 --> 00:20:53,359 Speaker 1: take some of these libra from US and send it 336 00:20:53,400 --> 00:20:56,600 Speaker 1: to Panama or any other shore financial center. And again, 337 00:20:56,640 --> 00:20:59,760 Speaker 1: all the rules about anti money laundering or not your customers. 338 00:21:00,080 --> 00:21:04,520 Speaker 1: I've breached that, of course, you know, uh, financial officials 339 00:21:04,560 --> 00:21:06,520 Speaker 1: are worried about it. This is not the little bit 340 00:21:06,640 --> 00:21:10,399 Speaker 1: small cryptoscam. You know, one of the largest company the 341 00:21:10,480 --> 00:21:16,840 Speaker 1: world wants to create essentially a money function without having 342 00:21:16,840 --> 00:21:20,959 Speaker 1: a banking license, without proper anti money laundering, without proper 343 00:21:21,359 --> 00:21:23,520 Speaker 1: not your customer stuff. And they're saying we're not going 344 00:21:23,560 --> 00:21:27,119 Speaker 1: to allow it, rightly so, and it was striking the 345 00:21:27,160 --> 00:21:30,200 Speaker 1: Facebook literature about this. And of course they always say 346 00:21:30,240 --> 00:21:31,880 Speaker 1: they're only going to have a small number of votes 347 00:21:31,880 --> 00:21:34,040 Speaker 1: in this, It's going to be a lot of other 348 00:21:34,119 --> 00:21:37,359 Speaker 1: players if it goes ahead. UM, I share some of 349 00:21:37,400 --> 00:21:40,240 Speaker 1: your skepticism, but it's extraordinary when you look at they're 350 00:21:40,320 --> 00:21:43,080 Speaker 1: what they're claiming about it. They'll say, they say, you 351 00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:45,520 Speaker 1: should be able to it should be just as easy 352 00:21:45,600 --> 00:21:48,679 Speaker 1: to transfer money wherever you are in the world to 353 00:21:48,720 --> 00:21:51,360 Speaker 1: wherever in the world. You shouldn't have any any borders, 354 00:21:51,840 --> 00:21:54,160 Speaker 1: And that does seem an extraordinary thing that you would 355 00:21:54,160 --> 00:21:55,919 Speaker 1: expect to be able to do that without any of 356 00:21:55,960 --> 00:22:00,399 Speaker 1: the normal obstacles to cross border banking or any of 357 00:22:00,400 --> 00:22:03,120 Speaker 1: those things. And I've heard you talk quite a lot 358 00:22:03,160 --> 00:22:06,440 Speaker 1: about what the seeds are for the next global financial 359 00:22:06,440 --> 00:22:09,800 Speaker 1: crisis and how soon that might be coming. I mean, finally, 360 00:22:09,840 --> 00:22:13,560 Speaker 1: if you think about how that might play out and 361 00:22:13,640 --> 00:22:16,680 Speaker 1: those kind of environments, it's really when that happens, it's 362 00:22:16,720 --> 00:22:20,000 Speaker 1: really important to have some kind of global cooperation. Do 363 00:22:20,080 --> 00:22:21,919 Speaker 1: you think we're not going to see that at this time? 364 00:22:22,040 --> 00:22:24,240 Speaker 1: Or we will still have the right kind of collaboration 365 00:22:24,280 --> 00:22:27,760 Speaker 1: between central banks even if governments are more adults with 366 00:22:27,800 --> 00:22:32,119 Speaker 1: one another. Well, if the next crisis occurs because of 367 00:22:32,119 --> 00:22:35,600 Speaker 1: a combination of excessive credit than that and some shocks 368 00:22:35,640 --> 00:22:38,840 Speaker 1: and things like a trade or attack or between US 369 00:22:38,920 --> 00:22:41,760 Speaker 1: and China could be triggering of it, or another old 370 00:22:41,800 --> 00:22:44,600 Speaker 1: shock if us in Iran go to work would be 371 00:22:44,600 --> 00:22:47,000 Speaker 1: the trigger of it. I think that first of all, 372 00:22:47,640 --> 00:22:51,040 Speaker 1: we'll have less cooperation in the past, but also the 373 00:22:51,240 --> 00:22:53,800 Speaker 1: national policies are going to be more constrained compared to 374 00:22:53,840 --> 00:22:57,800 Speaker 1: the past. You know, fiscal policies constrained because now deficit 375 00:22:57,840 --> 00:23:01,440 Speaker 1: debts are higher than before. More of their policies constrained 376 00:23:01,440 --> 00:23:04,200 Speaker 1: because we don't have much headroom. You know, the fathers 377 00:23:04,520 --> 00:23:07,919 Speaker 1: two and fifty business points of rate cuts before they 378 00:23:07,920 --> 00:23:11,119 Speaker 1: go to zero. While in Europe, e c B smb 379 00:23:11,760 --> 00:23:14,879 Speaker 1: Rigs Bank or in Japan the boj are already negative rates. 380 00:23:15,080 --> 00:23:17,720 Speaker 1: They can go a little more negative, but not much more. 381 00:23:18,400 --> 00:23:21,600 Speaker 1: And the ability to backstop and bail out banks, corporates 382 00:23:21,640 --> 00:23:25,000 Speaker 1: or even houshold is constrained for two reasons. One is, 383 00:23:25,040 --> 00:23:27,879 Speaker 1: there is now a political backlash against building out the 384 00:23:27,920 --> 00:23:31,159 Speaker 1: bank as well as treat the city the corporations, so 385 00:23:31,200 --> 00:23:33,720 Speaker 1: I don't think it's going to be as easy. And secondly, 386 00:23:33,760 --> 00:23:36,399 Speaker 1: you know there's this doom look between banks and the 387 00:23:36,440 --> 00:23:39,600 Speaker 1: sovereigns Summings are so indebted that a lot of their 388 00:23:39,640 --> 00:23:41,200 Speaker 1: death is at the hands of the banks, and the 389 00:23:41,240 --> 00:23:44,439 Speaker 1: banks are themselves fragile because of the exposure to the 390 00:23:44,480 --> 00:23:47,399 Speaker 1: sovereign and therefore this doom look between some of the 391 00:23:47,440 --> 00:23:49,720 Speaker 1: banks implies that's going to be very hard to have 392 00:23:49,840 --> 00:23:52,720 Speaker 1: the same backstop of the financial system we got during 393 00:23:52,720 --> 00:23:55,520 Speaker 1: the global financial crisis. So when the stuff is going 394 00:23:55,560 --> 00:23:58,320 Speaker 1: to hit the fan, Unfortunately, compared to ten years ago 395 00:23:58,359 --> 00:24:00,200 Speaker 1: when we had all the policy bulleis, we've is a 396 00:24:00,240 --> 00:24:03,120 Speaker 1: lot of them mount the physical credit backstre bailed out 397 00:24:03,400 --> 00:24:06,000 Speaker 1: this time around is going to constrained becauseine God's going 398 00:24:06,040 --> 00:24:08,400 Speaker 1: to go from the International Motri Fund to the European 399 00:24:08,480 --> 00:24:10,720 Speaker 1: Central Bank. Do you think she can hold together the 400 00:24:10,760 --> 00:24:15,600 Speaker 1: Eurozone through the next recession or potentially crisis the way 401 00:24:15,600 --> 00:24:19,760 Speaker 1: that Mary drug has I think it's an excellent choice. 402 00:24:19,880 --> 00:24:24,000 Speaker 1: She's eminently qualified. A great respect for her, and she, 403 00:24:24,280 --> 00:24:28,359 Speaker 1: like Mary Drugg, is certainly committed to do whatever it 404 00:24:28,400 --> 00:24:31,160 Speaker 1: takes to keep the Eurozone together. But there are things 405 00:24:31,160 --> 00:24:33,840 Speaker 1: that are not under the control of the CB. Say 406 00:24:33,960 --> 00:24:38,919 Speaker 1: suppose that during the next crisis, Italy the output collapses 407 00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:41,680 Speaker 1: as it is already now in a recession. Lefts and 408 00:24:41,800 --> 00:24:46,720 Speaker 1: let's go essentially higher and higher. Italy with the publish 409 00:24:46,760 --> 00:24:50,440 Speaker 1: government is doing policy of nose terity and or reform. 410 00:24:50,800 --> 00:24:54,720 Speaker 1: They're not going to qualify for the European bailout mechanism 411 00:24:54,880 --> 00:24:57,359 Speaker 1: that are the es M, nor for what is called 412 00:24:57,359 --> 00:25:00,960 Speaker 1: the o MT that is the bailout package that the CBS, 413 00:25:01,080 --> 00:25:04,359 Speaker 1: because the condition for the o m T is essentially 414 00:25:04,480 --> 00:25:07,760 Speaker 1: that the country is under effectively a program I m 415 00:25:07,840 --> 00:25:10,800 Speaker 1: F style of program hosterity and the form. And They're 416 00:25:10,840 --> 00:25:14,080 Speaker 1: big problem with Italy is that Greece was easy problem 417 00:25:14,240 --> 00:25:17,040 Speaker 1: to want a billion euro public that and there was 418 00:25:17,080 --> 00:25:20,680 Speaker 1: a troya program two billion euro could back stop both 419 00:25:20,760 --> 00:25:23,400 Speaker 1: Greece and its own creditors. But Italy is too big 420 00:25:23,440 --> 00:25:26,000 Speaker 1: to fail but also too big to be saved. The 421 00:25:26,000 --> 00:25:28,960 Speaker 1: Italian public that there's two point three treat on euros, 422 00:25:28,960 --> 00:25:31,720 Speaker 1: so there is no MF or EU or CP or 423 00:25:31,800 --> 00:25:35,000 Speaker 1: troya program can back stop Italy. So if if something 424 00:25:35,080 --> 00:25:37,560 Speaker 1: were to happen in Italy, either the Italian decide to 425 00:25:37,760 --> 00:25:40,439 Speaker 1: tighten their belts like risk it in the game of 426 00:25:40,560 --> 00:25:44,640 Speaker 1: Chicken in two thousands and fifteen gris blinked, or otherwise 427 00:25:44,720 --> 00:25:47,400 Speaker 1: Italy may jump off the cliff and live the Eurozone, 428 00:25:47,400 --> 00:25:50,800 Speaker 1: and that may provide an existential threat to the Eurozone itself. 429 00:25:50,840 --> 00:25:53,080 Speaker 1: We don't know what's gonna happen, but at some point 430 00:25:53,080 --> 00:25:55,840 Speaker 1: there will be a clash between Italy and not just 431 00:25:55,920 --> 00:25:58,600 Speaker 1: the you, but before even the uth within Italy in 432 00:25:58,600 --> 00:26:00,760 Speaker 1: the markets when the same, so there'll be a sunden 433 00:26:00,800 --> 00:26:03,399 Speaker 1: stop money. It is going to fly out of the banks, 434 00:26:03,760 --> 00:26:05,879 Speaker 1: run on the banks, around on public debt and anything. 435 00:26:06,440 --> 00:26:08,680 Speaker 1: Decide this is what we want or we're going to 436 00:26:08,720 --> 00:26:11,600 Speaker 1: accept the constraints are being in a monetary game with 437 00:26:11,680 --> 00:26:13,520 Speaker 1: a common currency. We don't know what's going to be 438 00:26:13,840 --> 00:26:17,639 Speaker 1: the endgame of that particular drama of that slow motion 439 00:26:17,720 --> 00:26:20,920 Speaker 1: train rack. But we may have a slamotion trainbreck right, 440 00:26:20,920 --> 00:26:24,320 Speaker 1: so we've got to watch a surprise bubbles and Italy 441 00:26:24,640 --> 00:26:27,840 Speaker 1: like a hawk to see what's coming next, and US 442 00:26:27,920 --> 00:26:31,840 Speaker 1: and China and US. Yes, but Italy, that whole in 443 00:26:31,880 --> 00:26:34,919 Speaker 1: the Eurozone that still is there even though there're supposedly 444 00:26:34,920 --> 00:26:39,520 Speaker 1: it's been been fixed. You're quite right that that is 445 00:26:39,520 --> 00:26:42,080 Speaker 1: the key issue that any country that would qualify if 446 00:26:42,080 --> 00:26:44,520 Speaker 1: you have a run, a really existential run on the 447 00:26:44,640 --> 00:26:48,440 Speaker 1: on the currency, or a panic around Italy, it would 448 00:26:48,440 --> 00:26:51,399 Speaker 1: still have to qualify for that support to get. So 449 00:26:51,440 --> 00:26:53,520 Speaker 1: you face exactly the same issue. It's too big to fail, 450 00:26:53,560 --> 00:26:56,919 Speaker 1: but potentially too big to say nobly. Thanks very much. 451 00:26:56,960 --> 00:26:59,000 Speaker 1: It's been pouring rain in Britain woods up in the 452 00:26:59,080 --> 00:27:01,520 Speaker 1: New Hampshire Mountain the last day or so, but I 453 00:27:01,560 --> 00:27:05,119 Speaker 1: think the liquidity but the sun's finally coming out so 454 00:27:05,160 --> 00:27:11,919 Speaker 1: we should get some fresh air. Thank you. Thanks for 455 00:27:11,960 --> 00:27:14,800 Speaker 1: listening to our first season of Stephanomics. We'll be back 456 00:27:14,800 --> 00:27:17,960 Speaker 1: in October, but if you're just discovering our show now, 457 00:27:18,000 --> 00:27:21,119 Speaker 1: you can find past episodes on the Bloomberg Terminal website, 458 00:27:21,400 --> 00:27:24,320 Speaker 1: app or wherever you get your podcast we'd love it 459 00:27:24,359 --> 00:27:26,119 Speaker 1: if you took the time to rate and review the 460 00:27:26,119 --> 00:27:29,120 Speaker 1: show so it can reach more listeners. And for more 461 00:27:29,200 --> 00:27:32,200 Speaker 1: news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics right through the summer, 462 00:27:32,600 --> 00:27:35,800 Speaker 1: follow our Economics on Twitter, and you can also find 463 00:27:35,880 --> 00:27:39,719 Speaker 1: me on at my Stephanomics. The Mexico story in this 464 00:27:39,760 --> 00:27:43,000 Speaker 1: episode was reported and written by Eric Martin. It was 465 00:27:43,000 --> 00:27:47,240 Speaker 1: produced by Magnus Hendrickson and edited by Bruce Douglas. Eric's 466 00:27:47,240 --> 00:27:49,879 Speaker 1: original story on this topic was edited by Anne Riffenberg 467 00:27:50,080 --> 00:27:53,800 Speaker 1: and David Papadopoulos. Special thanks to the organizers of the 468 00:27:53,840 --> 00:27:59,880 Speaker 1: Breton Woods At conference and also to make Lundziger, Neural Rubini, Carlos, 469 00:28:00,000 --> 00:28:05,480 Speaker 1: Manuel Roriguez, Jose Roscoe, and Cintia Berrera. Our executive producer 470 00:28:05,600 --> 00:28:09,040 Speaker 1: is Scott Laman, and the head of Bloomberg Podcast is 471 00:28:09,119 --> 00:28:21,560 Speaker 1: Francesco Levy. M