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Speaker 1: Let's right now. WelCom Peter McGuire. He joins from Sydney.

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Speaker 1: Peter is the CEO of x M Australia. Peter, thanks

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Speaker 1: for making time for us on the final trading day

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Speaker 1: of the week in the Asia Pacific. Seeing a little

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Speaker 1: bit of positivity in the equity market there. Um, this

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Speaker 1: week we've seen, you know, pretty I don't want to

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Speaker 1: say devish necessarily because we've had a number of central banks.

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Speaker 1: I'm thinking of the r B n Z which really

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Speaker 1: leaned in pretty aggressively, although yesterday the b OKA was

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Speaker 1: a little softer I think than some had been predicting.

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Speaker 1: Are we at the point now where we can talk

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Speaker 1: about the fact that we're on the other side of

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Speaker 1: peak inflation. Yes, it might linger for a while longer,

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Speaker 1: Rates may remain elevated for some time, but the worst

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Speaker 1: is over. Fair statement. Well, good morning, Doug. Yes, it

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Speaker 1: could be a fair statement, and I think that there's

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Speaker 1: many opinions out there, and so if we look at

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Speaker 1: first off from the FED and they move forward in

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Speaker 1: the minutes, and then we as you mentioned as far

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Speaker 1: as the ABBY and Z, there are many different components

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Speaker 1: of this inflation story globally and so yes, we may

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Speaker 1: be at that point, that tipping point, and we're on

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Speaker 1: the downward trap. One can only hope. But at the present,

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Speaker 1: I think there's still a lot of um. There's still

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Speaker 1: a lot of confusion from the retail sector and certainly

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Speaker 1: from the man and woman on the street as far

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Speaker 1: as cost of goods and whether they're all being you know,

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Speaker 1: appreciated as far as you know, they've pit that headline

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Speaker 1: number we had from the Bokay governor that just this

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Speaker 1: morning he said that he's watching the fad. As much

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Speaker 1: as we're talking about the fad likely to be on

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Speaker 1: a slower course of read highs, it's still higher for longer.

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Speaker 1: You've got to wonder our markets really justified in rallying

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Speaker 1: over the last few days. Well, I think a couple

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Speaker 1: of things, says Lenda. I mean, it's been incredibly volatile

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Speaker 1: and we've seen that over this month, and it certainly

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Speaker 1: hasn't disappointed across many different instruments. And if you're looking

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Speaker 1: at the likes of crude, you look US dollar and

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Speaker 1: look what's happened with equities. We've had a big sell off.

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Speaker 1: As far as US dollar, there's been a return to

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Speaker 1: some form of I think bullishness across equities and the

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Speaker 1: overall movement to you know, crewed being really punched down

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Speaker 1: as being a positive tone. So that's what the market's

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Speaker 1: telling me. I think we've seen a very strong move

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Speaker 1: across if you look at pound where we were a

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Speaker 1: couple of weeks ago, and certainly in and Euro it's

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Speaker 1: been very much a showtime for traders and that's been

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Speaker 1: a good sign. But the rbn Z basically indicated it

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Speaker 1: by mid next year, New Zealand could be in recession.

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Speaker 1: As a part of the Fed minutes, economist at the

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Speaker 1: Fed are predicting that maybe recession in the States is

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Speaker 1: now of fifty fifty situation, basically a coin toss. Are

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Speaker 1: we going to be looking at a recession in the

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Speaker 1: new year, and if so, do we have to rethink

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Speaker 1: corporate earnings in a major way? Well, I think you

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Speaker 1: would have to think about that exactly dark as far

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Speaker 1: as those earning moving forward and what impact it's going

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Speaker 1: to have to pee s and so on, and you

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Speaker 1: know the cost of capital, and as you said, it's

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Speaker 1: a flick of the coin at the moment and that's

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Speaker 1: where it's at. So there are again many different nations

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Speaker 1: in different parts of this or along that curve that

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Speaker 1: are deeper in recession or certainly feeling the pinch compared

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Speaker 1: to the likes of US. So that's the hard part

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Speaker 1: at the moment as far as globally how they're tackling it.

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Speaker 1: If you look at the likes of Egypt, you look

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Speaker 1: at the likes of different nations in that Mina region,

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Speaker 1: they're certainly under the pump and it's it's going to

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Speaker 1: be a very tough I think three to six months

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Speaker 1: ahead of US. Peter, what happens to yields? Trgy tenure

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Speaker 1: yields have come off a fair bit after threatening to

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Speaker 1: push towards four and a half percent just a month ago,

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Speaker 1: where to for years. Well, that's a hard one, as Linda,

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Speaker 1: I mean, you know it's been real, it's created over

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Speaker 1: the last couple of weeks and you're really being again

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Speaker 1: pushed down heavily. So we've just got see the sentiment

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Speaker 1: coming out of FED what goes on and if you

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Speaker 1: look at you know the actual dobbishness. The issue across

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Speaker 1: the FED also is one of confusion with many of

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Speaker 1: its members with a different mindset. Some are still hawkish

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Speaker 1: and you know, and then you've got the issues as

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Speaker 1: far as fed chair power so or viewpoints. So that's

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Speaker 1: the real matter at the moment where we get a

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Speaker 1: field before before Christmas, Peter, Let's start with China. As

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Speaker 1: Doug mentioned, record covered cases, even as the government talks

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Speaker 1: about more support for the economy, for the property sector,

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Speaker 1: how are you assessing the risks of buying China? Well,

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Speaker 1: I think it has Linda a couple of things. First off,

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Speaker 1: over the last month or two from my viewpoint, looking

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Speaker 1: from an Australian lens, we've seen a positive tone coming

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Speaker 1: out of China and things were going to be right

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Speaker 1: or even to the point of traveling there, and things

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Speaker 1: are looking on the up and up and now moving

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Speaker 1: over the last States two weeks or a week and

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Speaker 1: a half, confusion and now relocking down with record COVID cases.

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Speaker 1: So that is creating I think market confusion, market sentiment

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Speaker 1: as being a little bit washy, and I'm looking at

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Speaker 1: the cs I three thirty seven and a half. That's um,

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Speaker 1: it's a little bit bit up, but it's still well

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Speaker 1: off its highs. And the Chinese property sector has really

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Speaker 1: got some major issues as far as local government and

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Speaker 1: you know, the revenue from from selling property. A number

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Speaker 1: of houses have already started to reduce their growth forecast

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Speaker 1: GDP growth forecast for China. Nomura yesterday cutting the growth

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Speaker 1: rate for the new year down from what I believe

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Speaker 1: is four three down to four point zero percent. Doesn't

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Speaker 1: seem like people are ready to throw in the towel

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Speaker 1: on China yet. But in terms of accommodation from the government,

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Speaker 1: a lot of folks yesterday were saying, be on alert.

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Speaker 1: We could get a triple our cut as soon as today.

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Speaker 1: Do you think that's in the cards? Well, it could be.

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Speaker 1: I mean, Doug, I won't put anything away. And when

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Speaker 1: you're looking at that number, you know, it doesn't sound

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Speaker 1: much full point at a four point zero, but it's

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Speaker 1: you know, the best part of probably close to about

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Speaker 1: a seventy move if you're looking at the number of

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Speaker 1: as far as how much that scale back, So that

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Speaker 1: really is a concern and how that moves forward, with

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Speaker 1: the other banks probably having a similar viewpoint. Yes, I

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Speaker 1: wouldn't be surprised for China to take some aggressive stances.

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Speaker 1: If a triple are cut won't cut it for investors,

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Speaker 1: what would Is it just a case of waiting for

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Speaker 1: China to to do away with its covered zero policy.

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Speaker 1: I think so as Linda, I think that that's got

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Speaker 1: to be the move or the move forward. And I mean,

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Speaker 1: I'll be but China a few times in the middle

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Speaker 1: of winter and it's not a pleasant spot. So it's

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Speaker 1: damn cold. And if you're going to be in a

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Speaker 1: cold environment with a with a flu covid, then that

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Speaker 1: wouldn't surprise me for it to actually hit bigger numbers,

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Speaker 1: you know. So there's the point in time China's either

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Speaker 1: got to change its ways or it's going to languish

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Speaker 1: even further from a growth perspective moving forward. Peter, yesterday

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Speaker 1: we were talking about Bill Ackman's call that on the

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Speaker 1: Hong Kong dollar that essentially, given the fact that China

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Speaker 1: is extending its reach into Hong Kong to such an

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Speaker 1: extent that there's no choice now but for the peg

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Speaker 1: with the US dollar to break. Do you think that's

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Speaker 1: possible here in the near term? Well? Hell, I mean

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Speaker 1: that's about a long term uh right, Uh, Well, it's

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Speaker 1: been glued to that that sort of that sort of number,

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Speaker 1: and maybe you might see some you might see it happen.

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Speaker 1: I won't be surprised, and we all understand the conditions

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Speaker 1: there as far as growth numbers coming out of Hong Kong,

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Speaker 1: which a fairly fraction and and fairly weak. So yes,

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Speaker 1: I wouldn't be surprised to see that pig, you know,

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Speaker 1: change change its strategy, Peter, looking at the un that rebound,

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Speaker 1: how sustainable is it as long as COVID policy stays. Well,

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Speaker 1: there's Linda, that's the issue. I mean, you know, that's

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Speaker 1: a big if if COVID policy stay. So, you know,

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Speaker 1: I think you'll you'll see continued price movement, price volatility,

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Speaker 1: and it's it's just the way of the world at

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Speaker 1: the moment. We're just going to see how China beds

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Speaker 1: in over the next couple of months leading up to

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Speaker 1: Lunar New Year, whether their policy changes or uh, you know,

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Speaker 1: and what impact naturally that has to currency. So show

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Speaker 1: me your hand at the moment. How are you playing

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Speaker 1: markets right now? Peter? You got let's say the next

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Speaker 1: six months to deal with the likelihood that we're going

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Speaker 1: to be in recession globally. What's the house view at

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Speaker 1: x M right now, and how do you how do

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Speaker 1: you play these markets? Well, I think what we've seen

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Speaker 1: is such a massive move to the downside really crushed

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Speaker 1: that U s dollar dog. So that's really been an

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Speaker 1: enormous trade for retail traders as far as going along

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Speaker 1: for nearly every currency over the last couple of weeks.

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Speaker 1: Where that US dollar continues, do you see further softness

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Speaker 1: of that US dollar index from that one oh six

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Speaker 1: sort of handle to one oh four, one oh three,

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Speaker 1: one oh two, with the sort of dubby sentiment coming

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Speaker 1: out of Fed cheap house, possibly a cheaper US dollar

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Speaker 1: leading into Christmas. Pretty hard to digest where we are

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Speaker 1: by February or March. I just want to get through

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Speaker 1: the next six weeks. I don't know about the next

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Speaker 1: six months. Peter Beguya, CEO at ex of Australia, thank

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Speaker 1: you so much for your ton