1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring 3 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 4 00:00:11,560 --> 00:00:15,520 Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets podcast 5 00:00:15,560 --> 00:00:18,479 Speaker 1: called Copple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 6 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:23,200 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Let's bring in uh 7 00:00:23,320 --> 00:00:27,200 Speaker 1: Lisa Hornby. She is the head of US multisector fixed 8 00:00:27,240 --> 00:00:30,280 Speaker 1: income over at Schroeder's and she can talk with us 9 00:00:30,320 --> 00:00:32,680 Speaker 1: about UM. Well, first, awfully, so what do you make 10 00:00:32,680 --> 00:00:37,720 Speaker 1: of the moves we're seeing today in sovereign bonds? You know, 11 00:00:38,720 --> 00:00:41,240 Speaker 1: rates markets are always kind of funny, right You get 12 00:00:41,320 --> 00:00:45,199 Speaker 1: a pp I print which admittedly is at expectations but 13 00:00:45,320 --> 00:00:49,320 Speaker 1: still nearly nine percent, and you have you have US 14 00:00:49,479 --> 00:00:54,760 Speaker 1: rates rallying and the curve actually flattening. UM. You know, 15 00:00:54,840 --> 00:00:57,600 Speaker 1: I think the bottom line is that the FED has 16 00:00:57,640 --> 00:01:03,440 Speaker 1: basically given markets the green light to um take a 17 00:01:03,440 --> 00:01:05,560 Speaker 1: little bit of risk. Although admittedly we're not saying that 18 00:01:05,560 --> 00:01:08,280 Speaker 1: in equity markets today, but in bond markets they're saying 19 00:01:08,319 --> 00:01:11,680 Speaker 1: we're not doing anything for the foreseeable future. Some of 20 00:01:11,720 --> 00:01:14,240 Speaker 1: the rate hikes that were discounted into markets a week 21 00:01:14,280 --> 00:01:17,399 Speaker 1: ago have come out. Um, you're hearing a little bit 22 00:01:17,440 --> 00:01:20,399 Speaker 1: more about Lele Brennard on the on the maybe more 23 00:01:20,440 --> 00:01:23,640 Speaker 1: do a shide of the equation. Um. That's perhaps giving 24 00:01:23,640 --> 00:01:26,440 Speaker 1: a little bit of a bid to rates markets. UM. 25 00:01:26,520 --> 00:01:30,320 Speaker 1: And you know, just generally, I think the move to 26 00:01:30,520 --> 00:01:35,319 Speaker 1: higher yield happened fairly quickly and perhaps um, perhaps a 27 00:01:35,319 --> 00:01:38,000 Speaker 1: little too quickly for markets that I think we're just 28 00:01:38,000 --> 00:01:40,160 Speaker 1: getting a bit of a reversal of that right now. 29 00:01:42,440 --> 00:01:45,320 Speaker 1: At least. It's really interesting because early in the year 30 00:01:45,440 --> 00:01:48,480 Speaker 1: or late last year, you made a prediction about inflation, 31 00:01:48,680 --> 00:01:51,640 Speaker 1: and you made a prediction about how UH the Fed 32 00:01:51,760 --> 00:01:56,400 Speaker 1: may need to start to move to control it. I'm 33 00:01:56,440 --> 00:01:59,080 Speaker 1: wondering now as we head towards the end of twenty 34 00:01:59,240 --> 00:02:04,520 Speaker 1: twenty one, on what you're expecting into next year. Yeah. 35 00:02:04,560 --> 00:02:08,120 Speaker 1: So our view on inflation, particularly early this year and 36 00:02:08,200 --> 00:02:09,920 Speaker 1: late last year, was that it was going to be 37 00:02:10,080 --> 00:02:13,520 Speaker 1: much longer lasting than markets expected it to be. And 38 00:02:13,560 --> 00:02:15,720 Speaker 1: I think we are getting, um, you know, some some 39 00:02:16,120 --> 00:02:21,680 Speaker 1: satisfaction on that in that in that transitory is UH 40 00:02:21,880 --> 00:02:24,600 Speaker 1: is not necessarily a number of months, but being measured 41 00:02:24,600 --> 00:02:28,800 Speaker 1: in maybe years. UM. And and you know, our view 42 00:02:28,919 --> 00:02:31,640 Speaker 1: is is still fairly consistent. We think some of the 43 00:02:31,680 --> 00:02:34,840 Speaker 1: inflation we're seeing today will come off, some of these 44 00:02:34,840 --> 00:02:38,480 Speaker 1: supply chain issues will certainly moderate UM, but inflation is 45 00:02:38,560 --> 00:02:41,639 Speaker 1: probably still going to run higher for the next several 46 00:02:41,720 --> 00:02:45,280 Speaker 1: years than it has done over the last several years UM. 47 00:02:45,320 --> 00:02:47,799 Speaker 1: A number of reasons for that, you know, ranging from 48 00:02:47,840 --> 00:02:52,480 Speaker 1: FED policy to the political environment that we're in too. Frankly, 49 00:02:52,919 --> 00:02:56,240 Speaker 1: a lot of the efforts being made UM by by 50 00:02:56,280 --> 00:03:00,560 Speaker 1: by governments to move towards more sustainable UH policies in 51 00:03:00,639 --> 00:03:03,799 Speaker 1: terms of infrastructure and energy policy. I mean, those will 52 00:03:03,840 --> 00:03:07,000 Speaker 1: require huge investments in commodities in our view that it's 53 00:03:07,000 --> 00:03:09,919 Speaker 1: still UM need to be priced into markets. So this 54 00:03:09,960 --> 00:03:14,440 Speaker 1: should be a fairly supportive environment for inflation. UM. Now 55 00:03:14,560 --> 00:03:17,000 Speaker 1: that being said, we're still faced with the fact that 56 00:03:17,080 --> 00:03:23,080 Speaker 1: that's FED is seemingly airing towards overweighting its employment side 57 00:03:23,080 --> 00:03:26,280 Speaker 1: of its mandate versus the inflation side. And so I 58 00:03:26,320 --> 00:03:29,760 Speaker 1: think that they are very cognizant of of of getting 59 00:03:29,760 --> 00:03:34,560 Speaker 1: to full excuse me, full employment UM and letting inflation 60 00:03:34,639 --> 00:03:36,480 Speaker 1: run a bit hotter than it has in the past. 61 00:03:36,520 --> 00:03:38,920 Speaker 1: They've been fairly explicit about that and I think if 62 00:03:38,920 --> 00:03:41,800 Speaker 1: Brainard is in fact the new FED chair um that 63 00:03:42,080 --> 00:03:44,400 Speaker 1: you know, she will take an even more aggressive stance 64 00:03:44,440 --> 00:03:47,560 Speaker 1: on that. Um. If that's true, then the market has 65 00:03:47,600 --> 00:03:50,800 Speaker 1: gone went pretty far in discounting almost at one point 66 00:03:50,880 --> 00:03:54,520 Speaker 1: three rate hikes into in our view, that was probably 67 00:03:54,520 --> 00:03:56,760 Speaker 1: too aggressive. Maybe it should be done, but it's not 68 00:03:56,800 --> 00:03:59,760 Speaker 1: necessarily what this FED is going to deliver. Um. So 69 00:03:59,800 --> 00:04:02,360 Speaker 1: that to why we're you know, we are being we're 70 00:04:02,440 --> 00:04:05,680 Speaker 1: we're more cognizant of a range trading environment in rates. Yes, 71 00:04:05,720 --> 00:04:07,720 Speaker 1: we think tenure should probably be a bit higher than 72 00:04:07,720 --> 00:04:11,800 Speaker 1: they are today. Um, but it's not necessarily can't can't 73 00:04:11,800 --> 00:04:13,840 Speaker 1: get there all in one self swoop. I think we 74 00:04:13,880 --> 00:04:15,440 Speaker 1: need to have a little bit of give and take 75 00:04:15,480 --> 00:04:18,120 Speaker 1: in the markets. Lisa, what do you buy right now? 76 00:04:18,200 --> 00:04:20,240 Speaker 1: I mean, you spent a decade in the trenches as 77 00:04:20,279 --> 00:04:23,080 Speaker 1: a PM before you became the big boss as the 78 00:04:23,120 --> 00:04:30,120 Speaker 1: head of US multi sector fixed income. It's probably not easy. Ah. Yeah, 79 00:04:30,200 --> 00:04:32,720 Speaker 1: So that's sort of an understatement for the whole team, 80 00:04:32,760 --> 00:04:36,200 Speaker 1: I'm sure. Um. You know, markets are are challenging right now. 81 00:04:36,240 --> 00:04:40,040 Speaker 1: You look at valuations across particularly credit markets, and you 82 00:04:40,080 --> 00:04:42,800 Speaker 1: see that they're in the bottom death stile of their 83 00:04:42,880 --> 00:04:47,080 Speaker 1: historical ranges, so nothing really looks cheap, particularly on the 84 00:04:47,080 --> 00:04:50,000 Speaker 1: corporate side, there is a little bit of opportunity opening 85 00:04:50,040 --> 00:04:52,039 Speaker 1: up in our view. On the emerging market side, we 86 00:04:52,080 --> 00:04:55,760 Speaker 1: have seen, um you know, some of these issuers underperform 87 00:04:55,800 --> 00:04:57,839 Speaker 1: a bit as as the dollar has been fairly strong 88 00:04:57,880 --> 00:05:00,120 Speaker 1: and that's been a headwind for them. UM So we 89 00:05:00,160 --> 00:05:02,120 Speaker 1: are starting to take a little bit of a dip 90 00:05:02,200 --> 00:05:05,200 Speaker 1: into into some of the e M names, particularly those 91 00:05:05,240 --> 00:05:08,039 Speaker 1: with with strong capital accounts, those are that are more 92 00:05:08,120 --> 00:05:10,880 Speaker 1: geared to the U S and global economic recovery, those 93 00:05:10,880 --> 00:05:15,479 Speaker 1: geared to towards commodities, as um I mentioned earlier. UM 94 00:05:15,520 --> 00:05:18,240 Speaker 1: you know, there's also perhaps some opportunity in some of 95 00:05:18,240 --> 00:05:22,080 Speaker 1: the securitized markets as well. Um less so maybe on 96 00:05:22,160 --> 00:05:25,160 Speaker 1: the agency space, but a little bit more on UM 97 00:05:25,160 --> 00:05:26,880 Speaker 1: in areas like triple A c l o s that 98 00:05:26,920 --> 00:05:30,440 Speaker 1: we still like that still look from evaluation perspective reasonable 99 00:05:30,600 --> 00:05:33,160 Speaker 1: compared to the rest of the alternatives. They're floating rate 100 00:05:33,160 --> 00:05:36,400 Speaker 1: in nature, their short duration um so where we can 101 00:05:36,400 --> 00:05:39,320 Speaker 1: pick spread there. We like the we like the structure. 102 00:05:40,680 --> 00:05:43,240 Speaker 1: Outside of that, it's really hard to make a compelling 103 00:05:43,320 --> 00:05:46,280 Speaker 1: argument for fixed income. I mean if we're being completely frank. 104 00:05:47,400 --> 00:05:49,680 Speaker 1: It's more of a carry environment at best. There's not 105 00:05:49,760 --> 00:05:52,200 Speaker 1: a lot of potential in our view for further spread 106 00:05:52,200 --> 00:05:54,960 Speaker 1: compression from here, so we're waiting for a little bit 107 00:05:55,000 --> 00:05:57,760 Speaker 1: more volatility and markets to take advantage of that. Well, 108 00:05:57,800 --> 00:05:59,520 Speaker 1: I hope we get to talk to you again, Lisa. 109 00:05:59,560 --> 00:06:01,960 Speaker 1: Great to get some time with you. Thanks very much 110 00:06:02,000 --> 00:06:04,240 Speaker 1: for joining us. Lisa Hornby is the head of US 111 00:06:04,360 --> 00:06:14,159 Speaker 1: multisector fixed income over at Schroeder's. Let's get back to 112 00:06:14,720 --> 00:06:19,200 Speaker 1: um uh more realistic corporate stories. Dream Hotel Group. I'm 113 00:06:19,200 --> 00:06:22,160 Speaker 1: sure that j Stein wouldn't mind a two point for 114 00:06:22,440 --> 00:06:26,360 Speaker 1: seven trillion dollar valuation, although it would probably be a 115 00:06:26,360 --> 00:06:28,120 Speaker 1: lot more work. You have to hire a lot more people, 116 00:06:28,160 --> 00:06:31,880 Speaker 1: and that's not easy in this economy. Jay Stein is 117 00:06:31,920 --> 00:06:34,440 Speaker 1: the chief executive officer of the Dream Hotel Group. Jay, 118 00:06:34,800 --> 00:06:37,159 Speaker 1: I want to start there with with hiring people, because 119 00:06:37,160 --> 00:06:40,839 Speaker 1: when we talk to you here on Bloomberg Radio recently, 120 00:06:41,480 --> 00:06:45,039 Speaker 1: you've pointed out that it's not easy to get employees in. 121 00:06:45,240 --> 00:06:49,719 Speaker 1: Has that changed at all? Not much, unfortunately, Thanks for 122 00:06:49,720 --> 00:06:52,360 Speaker 1: having me on. By the way, um, you know, it's 123 00:06:52,360 --> 00:06:56,280 Speaker 1: still very difficult to to attract people to come back 124 00:06:56,279 --> 00:07:00,440 Speaker 1: to work. Um. Also our industry, it's it's been difficult. 125 00:07:01,520 --> 00:07:04,880 Speaker 1: People are opting to stay at home if they can, 126 00:07:05,279 --> 00:07:09,680 Speaker 1: or maybe not come back into cities if they've vacated 127 00:07:09,720 --> 00:07:12,040 Speaker 1: the city. So it's it's still a challenge. We're doing 128 00:07:12,040 --> 00:07:15,920 Speaker 1: a lot of interesting things in our different hotels, uh, 129 00:07:15,960 --> 00:07:20,720 Speaker 1: you know, offering incentives and offering parking and many different 130 00:07:20,720 --> 00:07:23,320 Speaker 1: things to try and make it more comfortable for people 131 00:07:23,360 --> 00:07:25,920 Speaker 1: to uh look at us as an opportunity. But it 132 00:07:26,240 --> 00:07:28,520 Speaker 1: is still very difficult. Yeah, we've we've been wondering about this. 133 00:07:28,600 --> 00:07:31,040 Speaker 1: What is keeping people from coming back? What can bring 134 00:07:31,120 --> 00:07:35,800 Speaker 1: them back? Is it a matter of wages? Especially in hospitality, 135 00:07:35,880 --> 00:07:38,920 Speaker 1: It's it's harder to be flexible in terms of working 136 00:07:38,960 --> 00:07:41,880 Speaker 1: from home. I mean, what can you do to kind 137 00:07:41,880 --> 00:07:46,840 Speaker 1: of support the demands of this workforce? Yeah, I agree 138 00:07:46,880 --> 00:07:48,920 Speaker 1: with you, and I think part of it maybe immigration, right, 139 00:07:48,960 --> 00:07:51,880 Speaker 1: Maybe we need more people in the country uh that 140 00:07:51,920 --> 00:07:54,360 Speaker 1: are going to look to take jobs that other people 141 00:07:54,400 --> 00:07:56,800 Speaker 1: are just don't want to take, and we need more 142 00:07:56,800 --> 00:08:00,560 Speaker 1: more people available to work in the workforce. Uh. Um. 143 00:08:00,560 --> 00:08:03,200 Speaker 1: Other than that, uh, you know, I said, you know, 144 00:08:03,280 --> 00:08:07,240 Speaker 1: let's end the enhanced unemployment, and you know that that's ended. 145 00:08:07,760 --> 00:08:11,920 Speaker 1: I think unemployment in general is going to start to uh, 146 00:08:12,000 --> 00:08:14,720 Speaker 1: you know, stop for a number of people, and people 147 00:08:14,760 --> 00:08:16,680 Speaker 1: are gonna, you know, realize that that they need to 148 00:08:16,720 --> 00:08:18,680 Speaker 1: go back to work. But you know, I don't think 149 00:08:18,720 --> 00:08:21,320 Speaker 1: that's really the answer. It's it's a it's a unique 150 00:08:21,320 --> 00:08:24,679 Speaker 1: situation that we're in and a lot of the younger 151 00:08:24,720 --> 00:08:28,560 Speaker 1: people are looking at life differently, and we're gonna have 152 00:08:28,600 --> 00:08:30,880 Speaker 1: to find solutions. Because you said, my industry is dead 153 00:08:30,920 --> 00:08:34,520 Speaker 1: without without worker is so well, the economists still tell 154 00:08:34,600 --> 00:08:38,280 Speaker 1: us jay Um and the Federal Reserve will say, we're 155 00:08:38,280 --> 00:08:41,600 Speaker 1: not at full employment yet. So before we start bringing 156 00:08:41,880 --> 00:08:45,120 Speaker 1: new people into the country, we still have a lot 157 00:08:45,120 --> 00:08:47,199 Speaker 1: of people that are out there looking for jobs, or 158 00:08:47,240 --> 00:08:49,800 Speaker 1: could be looking for jobs, or should be looking for jobs. 159 00:08:50,520 --> 00:08:52,280 Speaker 1: What do you think is keeping them on the sidelines. 160 00:08:52,840 --> 00:08:55,640 Speaker 1: I think they have savings, and I think they started 161 00:08:55,640 --> 00:08:59,679 Speaker 1: getting unemployment and uh, they're saying, you know, I want 162 00:08:59,679 --> 00:09:02,320 Speaker 1: to do what I want to do. Um And until 163 00:09:02,720 --> 00:09:05,240 Speaker 1: they're here, you know, out of unemployment and their savings 164 00:09:05,280 --> 00:09:08,040 Speaker 1: are dwindling, they're staying on the sidelines. All right, Let's 165 00:09:08,080 --> 00:09:12,000 Speaker 1: get back to the business of travel and leisure, the 166 00:09:12,040 --> 00:09:16,280 Speaker 1: hotel business. As borders are opening up Um, I think 167 00:09:16,640 --> 00:09:20,160 Speaker 1: yesterday was November eight, right, So, Um, Europeans are coming 168 00:09:20,160 --> 00:09:22,560 Speaker 1: back into the US. Do you feel that have you 169 00:09:22,600 --> 00:09:27,240 Speaker 1: seen already a big bump in reservations and occupancy? Yeah, 170 00:09:27,280 --> 00:09:30,960 Speaker 1: we definitely see an increase. Um. I wouldn't say a 171 00:09:31,000 --> 00:09:34,240 Speaker 1: big bump yet, it's it's gonna ramp up. Um. But 172 00:09:34,280 --> 00:09:36,360 Speaker 1: I do think, um, you know, we're coming into the 173 00:09:36,360 --> 00:09:38,959 Speaker 1: holiday season, we'll see a good impact. The UK is 174 00:09:39,000 --> 00:09:42,600 Speaker 1: a great freedom market into the New York markets. Um. 175 00:09:42,760 --> 00:09:44,680 Speaker 1: But what I am excited about is I think we'll 176 00:09:44,679 --> 00:09:47,920 Speaker 1: see a bigger business coming through in January and February 177 00:09:47,920 --> 00:09:50,320 Speaker 1: than we normally would because of all the pent up 178 00:09:50,360 --> 00:09:52,520 Speaker 1: to Man, I think they'll be shoot flights coming over 179 00:09:52,559 --> 00:09:56,520 Speaker 1: from Europe, and with Broadway open, and with restaurants open, 180 00:09:56,880 --> 00:10:01,240 Speaker 1: with great you know, luxury type shopping reasonable here the 181 00:10:01,360 --> 00:10:05,080 Speaker 1: niche typically in Europe. I do think you'll see uh 182 00:10:05,600 --> 00:10:08,480 Speaker 1: better business coming in those months where it's usually slow 183 00:10:08,520 --> 00:10:12,079 Speaker 1: for US. I mean, it's interesting because we talk about 184 00:10:12,080 --> 00:10:15,040 Speaker 1: things about to reopen more. If you've walked through Times 185 00:10:15,040 --> 00:10:18,320 Speaker 1: Square the theater district, you can't really walk far it's 186 00:10:18,400 --> 00:10:21,880 Speaker 1: so crowded, And so I'm wondering, Jay, you know that 187 00:10:21,960 --> 00:10:24,720 Speaker 1: for the people who are do have pricing pressure here 188 00:10:24,720 --> 00:10:27,360 Speaker 1: are Is it getting more expensive? Is it going to 189 00:10:27,400 --> 00:10:30,440 Speaker 1: become difficult very soon for people to get rooms when 190 00:10:30,440 --> 00:10:34,040 Speaker 1: they're looking to travel. No, I don't think we're at 191 00:10:34,040 --> 00:10:37,079 Speaker 1: that point yet. Our hotels. You know, we have five 192 00:10:37,080 --> 00:10:39,320 Speaker 1: hotels here in New York. We just opened the Chatwell 193 00:10:39,400 --> 00:10:42,360 Speaker 1: Hotel just last Monday. That was the last of our 194 00:10:42,400 --> 00:10:44,960 Speaker 1: properties that was still closed, and that's our high end 195 00:10:45,040 --> 00:10:48,199 Speaker 1: luxury property, and we have to dream hotels, uh, and 196 00:10:48,280 --> 00:10:50,840 Speaker 1: the time that have all been open since May, and 197 00:10:50,960 --> 00:10:54,160 Speaker 1: we're still not back to regular. Ocupency levels in the 198 00:10:54,200 --> 00:10:56,880 Speaker 1: city runs higher than most areas we're typically close to, 199 00:10:58,000 --> 00:11:00,240 Speaker 1: and we're still down and around the seventy percent range. 200 00:11:00,240 --> 00:11:03,319 Speaker 1: So there's still a lot of rooms. Inflation for us 201 00:11:03,320 --> 00:11:06,400 Speaker 1: to lifted the rates like we're seeing in other industries 202 00:11:06,440 --> 00:11:09,280 Speaker 1: has not come to us yet uh in New York 203 00:11:09,320 --> 00:11:12,880 Speaker 1: as as although I'm sure it will over the next year, 204 00:11:13,000 --> 00:11:15,040 Speaker 1: and I think we'll hit the new highs in a 205 00:11:15,120 --> 00:11:17,040 Speaker 1: d RS that we haven't seen you in the city. Yeah, 206 00:11:17,040 --> 00:11:20,480 Speaker 1: I mean, I imagine that you're gonna have to lift 207 00:11:20,520 --> 00:11:23,120 Speaker 1: prices at some point to get your margins back to normal, right, 208 00:11:23,160 --> 00:11:26,280 Speaker 1: because you have to pay people exactly exactly. And I 209 00:11:26,280 --> 00:11:28,400 Speaker 1: think I think the public just like you. You know, 210 00:11:28,400 --> 00:11:30,319 Speaker 1: when we go out to eat now, you're paying probably 211 00:11:31,240 --> 00:11:33,400 Speaker 1: more for an entree than you did a year and 212 00:11:33,400 --> 00:11:35,520 Speaker 1: a half ago, but you know, you're still going out 213 00:11:35,559 --> 00:11:38,680 Speaker 1: to dinner. And I think that instead of paying for 214 00:11:38,720 --> 00:11:41,120 Speaker 1: a room and you're paying three seventy five and you're 215 00:11:41,160 --> 00:11:43,600 Speaker 1: going for a weekend, uh, he'll be happy to pay 216 00:11:43,600 --> 00:11:46,760 Speaker 1: it and stay in a great hotel. So I think that's, uh, 217 00:11:46,840 --> 00:11:49,160 Speaker 1: you know, something that the industry actually has the opportunity 218 00:11:49,200 --> 00:11:51,000 Speaker 1: to look forward to and be able to raise rates 219 00:11:51,280 --> 00:11:53,679 Speaker 1: rates of staging for for a longer time. Right now, 220 00:11:53,960 --> 00:11:56,360 Speaker 1: great to get your insight. Always appreciate having you on 221 00:11:56,400 --> 00:11:59,040 Speaker 1: the program. Thanks so much for your time. J Stein 222 00:11:59,400 --> 00:12:02,720 Speaker 1: is the chief executive officer of the Dream Hotel Group. 223 00:12:02,800 --> 00:12:09,840 Speaker 1: Talking to us about employment, international travel, and inflation. Really important. UM. 224 00:12:09,920 --> 00:12:16,360 Speaker 1: Insight there. Let's talk about a little bit more about 225 00:12:16,360 --> 00:12:18,760 Speaker 1: what's going on in the labor market, especially from the 226 00:12:18,800 --> 00:12:23,600 Speaker 1: perspective of the housing industry industry. UM. But I first 227 00:12:23,600 --> 00:12:25,480 Speaker 1: want to tell you that Bloomberg Markets is brought to 228 00:12:25,480 --> 00:12:28,960 Speaker 1: you by Commonwealth, supporting more than two thousand independent financial 229 00:12:28,960 --> 00:12:33,520 Speaker 1: advisors with solutions they need to grow thriving business. Commonwealth 230 00:12:33,880 --> 00:12:37,600 Speaker 1: go where you grow. Visit Commonwealth dot com to learn more. 231 00:12:38,480 --> 00:12:41,240 Speaker 1: Now let's get to Jack Trong right now. Uh. He 232 00:12:41,440 --> 00:12:44,320 Speaker 1: joins us at the CEO of James Hardy to talk 233 00:12:44,360 --> 00:12:50,520 Speaker 1: about this market, this housing market and um, the difficulty 234 00:12:50,600 --> 00:12:55,080 Speaker 1: in hiring people. Has it gotten any better? Jack? Um? 235 00:12:55,080 --> 00:13:01,240 Speaker 1: Good morning, Matt U. Sertainly within the new construction the markets, Um, 236 00:13:01,440 --> 00:13:06,719 Speaker 1: the it's still quite tenable. But but we also are 237 00:13:06,800 --> 00:13:10,679 Speaker 1: exposed to the remodeling segments and um, and it's actually 238 00:13:11,160 --> 00:13:14,320 Speaker 1: not as bad as in a new construction side. Well, 239 00:13:14,320 --> 00:13:18,040 Speaker 1: I'm wondering how long this construction boom really goes on 240 00:13:18,120 --> 00:13:20,520 Speaker 1: for you know, I know a lot of people who 241 00:13:20,640 --> 00:13:24,160 Speaker 1: are looking to build a home right now facing so 242 00:13:24,240 --> 00:13:27,160 Speaker 1: many delays, and I'm wondering if there's a point at 243 00:13:27,200 --> 00:13:31,840 Speaker 1: which this starts to taper off, whether more people coming 244 00:13:31,920 --> 00:13:34,880 Speaker 1: back into the workforce will start to ease some of 245 00:13:34,880 --> 00:13:39,640 Speaker 1: that pain Porsonally, you know what new construction is already 246 00:13:39,840 --> 00:13:45,120 Speaker 1: very quite a complex supply chain to build new homes, 247 00:13:45,160 --> 00:13:48,280 Speaker 1: and I need you have the different different type of 248 00:13:48,280 --> 00:13:52,120 Speaker 1: products and going to building home like with appliances, Wind windows, 249 00:13:52,240 --> 00:13:54,840 Speaker 1: doors and so and so forth. So you have also 250 00:13:55,000 --> 00:13:59,480 Speaker 1: have different skill laborers to complete the home. So we 251 00:13:59,480 --> 00:14:02,680 Speaker 1: we don't see that it's gonna gonna be abated anytime soon. 252 00:14:03,280 --> 00:14:06,160 Speaker 1: Um certainly at least within the next year or so. 253 00:14:07,000 --> 00:14:09,960 Speaker 1: But where we see um really light at the end 254 00:14:10,000 --> 00:14:13,400 Speaker 1: and tunnel, it's really in the remodelate side, where where 255 00:14:13,400 --> 00:14:18,320 Speaker 1: there is a there's a uptick in in the remodeling 256 00:14:18,400 --> 00:14:21,880 Speaker 1: of the big ticket items, big ticket project like the 257 00:14:22,000 --> 00:14:27,120 Speaker 1: re residing, remodeling or fixing your the exterior of homes. 258 00:14:27,680 --> 00:14:30,280 Speaker 1: UM that that's been growing. It's quite nicely in this 259 00:14:30,440 --> 00:14:34,800 Speaker 1: past quarters where we grouped by Cote and Insinceance, the 260 00:14:35,560 --> 00:14:38,600 Speaker 1: supply chain is not as complex and we do see 261 00:14:39,400 --> 00:14:44,840 Speaker 1: the labor it's quite really available in that remodeling sector. 262 00:14:46,040 --> 00:14:49,720 Speaker 1: So um, the remodeling is your focus. But it does 263 00:14:49,760 --> 00:14:53,560 Speaker 1: seem like this market needs more new construction, it needs 264 00:14:53,600 --> 00:14:59,360 Speaker 1: more supply. Um. How do you see that? Well, you know, 265 00:14:59,520 --> 00:15:02,760 Speaker 1: so you new constructions to read about between six or 266 00:15:02,840 --> 00:15:05,920 Speaker 1: eight percent of homes so to the how housing stock 267 00:15:05,960 --> 00:15:09,440 Speaker 1: in America today, So we still a relatively small part 268 00:15:09,560 --> 00:15:14,720 Speaker 1: of the housing availability in the US, UM. So UM 269 00:15:14,800 --> 00:15:18,280 Speaker 1: in in the short term, Yeah, it's gonna be limited 270 00:15:18,360 --> 00:15:20,480 Speaker 1: in terms of the new construction start. I think we 271 00:15:20,600 --> 00:15:23,520 Speaker 1: kind of horror around one point one million single family 272 00:15:23,560 --> 00:15:27,600 Speaker 1: new construction right now for several months now. And also 273 00:15:27,680 --> 00:15:30,480 Speaker 1: because of that complex of blind chain as we always 274 00:15:30,520 --> 00:15:34,160 Speaker 1: the lack of skill labor. We don't see that changing 275 00:15:34,200 --> 00:15:37,840 Speaker 1: anytime soon. But where we see more and more that 276 00:15:37,960 --> 00:15:40,320 Speaker 1: home owners are not going to move from their homes 277 00:15:40,920 --> 00:15:44,280 Speaker 1: and there's more tendency now for the of all owners 278 00:15:44,280 --> 00:15:47,040 Speaker 1: to stay where where they're at and then to put 279 00:15:47,080 --> 00:15:51,000 Speaker 1: that money to our renovated and remodeling their homes. You're 280 00:15:51,000 --> 00:15:53,640 Speaker 1: not gonna believe this guy's My parents actually moved to 281 00:15:53,680 --> 00:15:56,600 Speaker 1: India for four months because their house is so far 282 00:15:56,680 --> 00:16:00,480 Speaker 1: delayed being created and they had to sell. UM wondering 283 00:16:01,040 --> 00:16:04,920 Speaker 1: about next year? Does it get better given that we're 284 00:16:04,960 --> 00:16:10,800 Speaker 1: not going to see so much new supply so quickly. Yeah, 285 00:16:10,800 --> 00:16:14,200 Speaker 1: I think I think the next next year we'll get better. 286 00:16:14,360 --> 00:16:18,280 Speaker 1: That's thee that the industry work out of the complex 287 00:16:18,280 --> 00:16:22,720 Speaker 1: supply chain for new construction. Um. But you know, but 288 00:16:22,960 --> 00:16:26,680 Speaker 1: anything can can happen now to then and certainly uh, 289 00:16:26,720 --> 00:16:29,080 Speaker 1: you know, with the interest rate continue to be lowest 290 00:16:29,200 --> 00:16:31,480 Speaker 1: and this now and we were going to see that 291 00:16:31,640 --> 00:16:34,680 Speaker 1: the demand will have housing that might start to rise. Um. 292 00:16:34,680 --> 00:16:36,400 Speaker 1: We only have a minute or so left here. But 293 00:16:36,440 --> 00:16:39,760 Speaker 1: what about climate change? You know, it's interesting because I'm 294 00:16:39,760 --> 00:16:43,120 Speaker 1: wondering what you're doing to kind of prepare for bad 295 00:16:43,160 --> 00:16:46,640 Speaker 1: weather into the winter and all of these crazy fires 296 00:16:46,640 --> 00:16:50,720 Speaker 1: that we've been seeing as well or the soonality an accident. 297 00:16:50,800 --> 00:16:53,040 Speaker 1: That's a very very good question. You know. We're we're 298 00:16:53,160 --> 00:16:56,240 Speaker 1: very fortunated, James Hardy, that that we had a very 299 00:16:56,320 --> 00:17:00,560 Speaker 1: unique technology that we're product to make them from our 300 00:17:00,600 --> 00:17:03,960 Speaker 1: five cement technology. And not only that we deliver the 301 00:17:04,040 --> 00:17:07,919 Speaker 1: different designs and and aesthetic to the to the homes, 302 00:17:07,920 --> 00:17:10,400 Speaker 1: but they also protect the home from all the elements. 303 00:17:10,440 --> 00:17:14,880 Speaker 1: You know, it's it's noncombustible UM. It's also do durable 304 00:17:14,960 --> 00:17:18,280 Speaker 1: that we guarantee for filty years UM. And at the 305 00:17:18,320 --> 00:17:21,679 Speaker 1: same time, it's uh it's rated for hurricanes. You know 306 00:17:21,720 --> 00:17:24,439 Speaker 1: it's gonna be it can would stand when the up 307 00:17:24,480 --> 00:17:27,399 Speaker 1: to two and twenty nine per hour UM. And it 308 00:17:27,720 --> 00:17:32,720 Speaker 1: also rated by FEMA, say class five in the Class 309 00:17:32,760 --> 00:17:36,959 Speaker 1: five flood zone. So it's quite uh moisture resistance. So 310 00:17:37,040 --> 00:17:43,119 Speaker 1: our product is really um quite um well suited for 311 00:17:43,119 --> 00:17:46,360 Speaker 1: for the changing climate right now. All right, Jack, thanks 312 00:17:46,359 --> 00:17:49,280 Speaker 1: so much for joining us. Jack Trong there, chief executive 313 00:17:49,320 --> 00:17:52,280 Speaker 1: officer at James Hardy talking to us about the housing 314 00:17:52,359 --> 00:18:00,800 Speaker 1: market and um, the renovation situation right now. All right, 315 00:18:00,880 --> 00:18:04,720 Speaker 1: let's talk about our big take story of the day. 316 00:18:04,880 --> 00:18:08,960 Speaker 1: Reddit's latest obsession is the FEDS Reverse Repo Facility. Alex 317 00:18:09,000 --> 00:18:11,000 Speaker 1: Harris wrote the story and he's here to talk about 318 00:18:11,040 --> 00:18:15,199 Speaker 1: it with us. So, um, Alex, this is something that 319 00:18:16,200 --> 00:18:19,040 Speaker 1: we are often obsessed with as well. And as you 320 00:18:19,080 --> 00:18:22,040 Speaker 1: point out, money market traders are glued to the screen 321 00:18:22,080 --> 00:18:25,520 Speaker 1: every day to see the results of the reverse repo agreement. 322 00:18:25,560 --> 00:18:29,600 Speaker 1: Can you explain what it is to the layman? Yeah, 323 00:18:29,760 --> 00:18:32,760 Speaker 1: So what has happened is, you know, when the Fed 324 00:18:32,840 --> 00:18:36,520 Speaker 1: does these asset purchases, when the Treasury is holding onto 325 00:18:36,560 --> 00:18:39,679 Speaker 1: a lot of cash um and they start sort of 326 00:18:39,680 --> 00:18:42,879 Speaker 1: removing that or spending that down, that all goes into 327 00:18:42,920 --> 00:18:46,159 Speaker 1: the into the financial system. And so what the FEDS 328 00:18:46,160 --> 00:18:49,040 Speaker 1: Reverse Repo facility has been created to do is to 329 00:18:49,160 --> 00:18:53,560 Speaker 1: actually mop up this so called excess liquidity that there's 330 00:18:53,560 --> 00:18:55,919 Speaker 1: just there's too much out there, and so this facility 331 00:18:56,080 --> 00:18:59,560 Speaker 1: has been designed to sort of you know, redirect some 332 00:18:59,720 --> 00:19:02,960 Speaker 1: of it. So as to not overwhelm the financial system 333 00:19:02,960 --> 00:19:07,560 Speaker 1: and financial market. So I don't understand why the everyday 334 00:19:07,600 --> 00:19:10,560 Speaker 1: trader who's normally interested in the stock market, which they 335 00:19:10,600 --> 00:19:15,920 Speaker 1: can actually participate in, is so obsessed with reverse repo 336 00:19:16,160 --> 00:19:22,240 Speaker 1: which they have no exposure to. Yeah, initially it's a 337 00:19:22,280 --> 00:19:24,840 Speaker 1: good question, and one even after this story and so 338 00:19:25,119 --> 00:19:28,680 Speaker 1: asking myself a bit um just because they happened to 339 00:19:28,720 --> 00:19:31,560 Speaker 1: glance at the at the comments on Reddit in response 340 00:19:31,600 --> 00:19:35,520 Speaker 1: to the story. Um, you know, I think it's sort 341 00:19:35,560 --> 00:19:39,480 Speaker 1: of almost like an instinctive thing when you see a 342 00:19:39,640 --> 00:19:42,560 Speaker 1: number like this growing and then you start assigning sort 343 00:19:42,600 --> 00:19:45,919 Speaker 1: of assize and scope to it. Um, there has to 344 00:19:45,960 --> 00:19:49,720 Speaker 1: be some like absolutely insane reason as to why something 345 00:19:49,840 --> 00:19:51,880 Speaker 1: is behaving the way it is when it when it's 346 00:19:51,920 --> 00:19:55,879 Speaker 1: growing like this. Um, you know, and and really you know, 347 00:19:55,920 --> 00:19:59,080 Speaker 1: the reverse repo facility like on it on its front. 348 00:19:59,119 --> 00:20:01,800 Speaker 1: You know, people can say cool things for making repo fun. Again, 349 00:20:01,880 --> 00:20:04,800 Speaker 1: it's just intended to be boring. It's intended to just 350 00:20:04,840 --> 00:20:07,320 Speaker 1: clean up the market, you know. Well, but not at 351 00:20:07,320 --> 00:20:10,680 Speaker 1: these levels, right, I mean, it's huge. This isn't something 352 00:20:10,680 --> 00:20:14,960 Speaker 1: that's insignificant. It's not like, you know, move away. They're 353 00:20:14,960 --> 00:20:17,080 Speaker 1: nothing to see here. There is something to see here. 354 00:20:17,840 --> 00:20:20,440 Speaker 1: I mean, I think, if anything, and it's telling you 355 00:20:20,520 --> 00:20:23,760 Speaker 1: that what the said and the Treasury did in response 356 00:20:23,880 --> 00:20:27,800 Speaker 1: to the economic catastrophe that was the COVID pandemic in 357 00:20:28,160 --> 00:20:32,879 Speaker 1: the early days of it, um was actually monumental. Because 358 00:20:32,920 --> 00:20:35,159 Speaker 1: that's what essentially we're cleaning up right now, is that 359 00:20:35,160 --> 00:20:37,560 Speaker 1: the remember the fact is still doing quantitative using, it's 360 00:20:37,560 --> 00:20:42,719 Speaker 1: still purchasing treasuries, and it's still purchasing mortgage backed securities, um. 361 00:20:42,800 --> 00:20:45,680 Speaker 1: You know, so it's still pumping cash into the system, 362 00:20:45,800 --> 00:20:48,120 Speaker 1: and and it's quite a lot, you know. And we're 363 00:20:48,160 --> 00:20:51,359 Speaker 1: also getting cash from the Treasury because they were holding 364 00:20:51,359 --> 00:20:54,040 Speaker 1: at one point eight trillion dollar cash balance, which was 365 00:20:54,080 --> 00:20:58,080 Speaker 1: just unprecedented as well. I mean, we hadn't had when 366 00:20:58,080 --> 00:21:00,840 Speaker 1: the when the rest People facially was created in two 367 00:21:00,840 --> 00:21:04,520 Speaker 1: thousand and thirteen, at first launched, we didn't have fiscal 368 00:21:04,560 --> 00:21:08,600 Speaker 1: policy and monetary policy. Monetary policy. I think it was 369 00:21:08,960 --> 00:21:11,359 Speaker 1: Chuck Schumer in the Senate had told Bed Bernaki was 370 00:21:11,400 --> 00:21:13,800 Speaker 1: the only you know, they were the only game in town. 371 00:21:14,400 --> 00:21:18,199 Speaker 1: And and so that's why you didn't sound now in 372 00:21:18,200 --> 00:21:22,359 Speaker 1: a sense though that the explosion in the reverse repo 373 00:21:22,440 --> 00:21:29,040 Speaker 1: facility is emblematic of um, the amount of cash going 374 00:21:29,080 --> 00:21:33,560 Speaker 1: into things like game stock and uh bit dog right. 375 00:21:33,600 --> 00:21:36,640 Speaker 1: I mean there's just so much cash out there with 376 00:21:36,720 --> 00:21:40,680 Speaker 1: no place to go. Um, these big institutions are putting 377 00:21:40,720 --> 00:21:45,000 Speaker 1: it at the RP, but Wall Street bets bros. Are 378 00:21:45,040 --> 00:21:49,600 Speaker 1: putting it into a MC. You know, I think it 379 00:21:49,800 --> 00:21:52,040 Speaker 1: is emblematical the fact that there is just too much 380 00:21:52,080 --> 00:21:54,840 Speaker 1: cash out there period. You know, I think you know 381 00:21:54,880 --> 00:21:57,280 Speaker 1: when you look at the you know, amount of money 382 00:21:57,440 --> 00:22:00,520 Speaker 1: it costs for a used car, use phone. You know, 383 00:22:00,720 --> 00:22:03,560 Speaker 1: yes it is. But you remember these are money market 384 00:22:03,560 --> 00:22:07,320 Speaker 1: funds that are primarily using the reverse repo facility. Um. 385 00:22:07,359 --> 00:22:09,959 Speaker 1: You know these aren't the banks. The banks have you know, 386 00:22:10,119 --> 00:22:13,720 Speaker 1: interest on reserve balances that pay fifteen basis point for 387 00:22:13,880 --> 00:22:16,080 Speaker 1: cash and this is this is money son. You make 388 00:22:16,160 --> 00:22:17,639 Speaker 1: this other point in the story that I think is 389 00:22:17,640 --> 00:22:20,400 Speaker 1: really important. It's really important for people to understand how 390 00:22:20,400 --> 00:22:25,679 Speaker 1: the FED works, especially the most you know, basic things 391 00:22:25,760 --> 00:22:29,480 Speaker 1: to keep the economy safe. Right. But you have said 392 00:22:29,480 --> 00:22:31,720 Speaker 1: that there's a lot of FED miss run by a 393 00:22:31,840 --> 00:22:35,240 Speaker 1: very dangerous man though according to well, let's not go there. 394 00:22:35,359 --> 00:22:38,320 Speaker 1: But you know that there's a lot of FED misinformation 395 00:22:38,400 --> 00:22:40,639 Speaker 1: spreading on Twitter you know, what are some of the 396 00:22:40,680 --> 00:22:44,960 Speaker 1: misconceptions that people have about this that then need to 397 00:22:44,960 --> 00:22:48,760 Speaker 1: be debunked, you know, I think because again it's so 398 00:22:48,960 --> 00:22:52,760 Speaker 1: big and and you really have to, i think, want 399 00:22:52,800 --> 00:22:57,520 Speaker 1: to understand exactly how the mechanics of the financial system works. 400 00:22:57,520 --> 00:22:59,239 Speaker 1: And with that, you have to understand kind of how 401 00:22:59,280 --> 00:23:02,400 Speaker 1: these said faces amilities work. And one of the things 402 00:23:02,480 --> 00:23:05,439 Speaker 1: that you you know, that was a misconception that we 403 00:23:05,520 --> 00:23:09,159 Speaker 1: found is that UM hedge funds were regular users or 404 00:23:09,160 --> 00:23:11,840 Speaker 1: the reverse repo facility and they were taking you know, 405 00:23:11,880 --> 00:23:15,000 Speaker 1: the securities that they were getting from the set in 406 00:23:15,040 --> 00:23:18,840 Speaker 1: these operations and and then lending them out UM and 407 00:23:18,880 --> 00:23:21,760 Speaker 1: you're using them as collateral UM, which is not the 408 00:23:21,800 --> 00:23:24,600 Speaker 1: case because hedge funds are not counterparties. So the reverse 409 00:23:24,640 --> 00:23:28,480 Speaker 1: repot facility, you know, the bulk of the counterparties that 410 00:23:28,560 --> 00:23:31,840 Speaker 1: actually use it our money market funds, followed by your 411 00:23:32,240 --> 00:23:35,439 Speaker 1: Fannie MA, Freadie MAC and your federal homeland banks. So 412 00:23:35,520 --> 00:23:37,480 Speaker 1: that was a big one. You know. The other the 413 00:23:37,520 --> 00:23:39,960 Speaker 1: other misconception is the idea is that the larger this 414 00:23:40,160 --> 00:23:43,280 Speaker 1: gets UM, the more likely to pretends some sort of 415 00:23:43,800 --> 00:23:47,880 Speaker 1: economic collapse UM, when in fact, you know, the set 416 00:23:47,960 --> 00:23:53,520 Speaker 1: had created um, the reverse repo facility and now what's 417 00:23:53,520 --> 00:23:57,080 Speaker 1: called the standing repo facility to sort of um, you know, 418 00:23:57,359 --> 00:24:02,160 Speaker 1: guard the market, you know, against these sort of catastrophes, 419 00:24:02,280 --> 00:24:04,480 Speaker 1: especially in the plumbing market, you know, where things can 420 00:24:04,520 --> 00:24:07,520 Speaker 1: be so fragile and so sensitive, as we saw even 421 00:24:07,600 --> 00:24:10,800 Speaker 1: you know in nine, you know, when overnight repo spike 422 00:24:10,880 --> 00:24:15,679 Speaker 1: to ten. It's like according to your you have a 423 00:24:15,720 --> 00:24:19,120 Speaker 1: great great um you quote a great Reddit user, old 424 00:24:19,119 --> 00:24:21,840 Speaker 1: man repo. He says his mom thought he was out 425 00:24:21,880 --> 00:24:27,960 Speaker 1: there stealing cars like the great Amelio Estevas film repo. 426 00:24:28,040 --> 00:24:33,640 Speaker 1: Man Um, he's doing something else, Mom, Yeah, I mean 427 00:24:33,680 --> 00:24:36,800 Speaker 1: that's exactly what it is. And I think he had actually, 428 00:24:37,160 --> 00:24:38,600 Speaker 1: you know, it was such a it was such a 429 00:24:38,680 --> 00:24:41,560 Speaker 1: nice analogy because that's exactly what it is. Is that 430 00:24:41,880 --> 00:24:44,959 Speaker 1: you know, what had happened was, you know, the COVID 431 00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:48,679 Speaker 1: and the and the pandemic and everything broke, and the 432 00:24:48,720 --> 00:24:51,399 Speaker 1: reverse repo facility is sort of what you're using to 433 00:24:51,480 --> 00:24:54,160 Speaker 1: sort of get back to health and and so that's 434 00:24:54,160 --> 00:24:57,040 Speaker 1: what we're seeing right now. It's just that, you know, again, 435 00:24:57,600 --> 00:25:01,040 Speaker 1: unprecedented times called for unpressd then did the amounts of 436 00:25:01,040 --> 00:25:04,160 Speaker 1: liquidity from both the FED and the Treasury, and and 437 00:25:04,200 --> 00:25:06,639 Speaker 1: that's why we're getting the usage that we're using. And 438 00:25:07,080 --> 00:25:09,600 Speaker 1: because again it's it's a piece of the plumbing, and 439 00:25:09,640 --> 00:25:11,760 Speaker 1: no one really looks at the plumbing unless it breaks. 440 00:25:12,640 --> 00:25:15,600 Speaker 1: That's why we are getting the reaction we're getting. Alex. 441 00:25:15,640 --> 00:25:18,719 Speaker 1: Thanks so much, Alex Harris writing our big Take story 442 00:25:19,040 --> 00:25:23,639 Speaker 1: for today. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. 443 00:25:24,040 --> 00:25:27,240 Speaker 1: You can subscribe and listen to interviews with Apple Podcasts 444 00:25:27,359 --> 00:25:31,280 Speaker 1: or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm 445 00:25:31,320 --> 00:25:35,359 Speaker 1: on Twitter at Matt Miller three. Put on fall Sweeney. 446 00:25:35,359 --> 00:25:38,000 Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney Before the podcast. You 447 00:25:38,040 --> 00:25:40,400 Speaker 1: can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio