1 00:00:16,480 --> 00:00:21,279 Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to the Action Network Podcast. It is Friday, 2 00:00:21,720 --> 00:00:25,400 Speaker 1: July fifteenth, and typically when we join you on Fridays 3 00:00:25,440 --> 00:00:28,720 Speaker 1: with the Action Network Podcast, that means it's a UFC 4 00:00:28,840 --> 00:00:31,400 Speaker 1: betting preview, and that is the case UFC Fight Night 5 00:00:31,560 --> 00:00:35,640 Speaker 1: or Tega v. Rodriguez, that is the main event. Our 6 00:00:35,720 --> 00:00:40,920 Speaker 1: all star crew covering UFC. Former professional fighter Billy Ward 7 00:00:41,000 --> 00:00:45,560 Speaker 1: also our MMA analyst joining us and Action Network senior writer. 8 00:00:46,080 --> 00:00:48,600 Speaker 1: He is a jack of all trades. Sean Zarillo, we 9 00:00:48,680 --> 00:00:50,640 Speaker 1: join you every Friday to get you ready for the 10 00:00:50,760 --> 00:00:53,680 Speaker 1: Saturday card. We've got twelve fights coming to you from 11 00:00:54,040 --> 00:00:58,320 Speaker 1: UBS Arena in Elmont, New York or Tega Rodriguez the 12 00:00:58,440 --> 00:01:01,080 Speaker 1: main event. By the way, this as a quick aside 13 00:01:01,200 --> 00:01:04,040 Speaker 1: those of you that tune into the podcast often, we 14 00:01:04,160 --> 00:01:09,600 Speaker 1: certainly appreciate it. Six hundredth Action Network episode. The Action 15 00:01:09,640 --> 00:01:13,160 Speaker 1: Network Podcast, six hundredth episode. So thanks so much for 16 00:01:13,160 --> 00:01:16,800 Speaker 1: your loyalty and tuning in to our shows no matter 17 00:01:16,840 --> 00:01:19,480 Speaker 1: what the sport is. So thanks for being here. Let's 18 00:01:19,520 --> 00:01:22,319 Speaker 1: dive in. We've got plenty to get to on this card. 19 00:01:22,400 --> 00:01:25,440 Speaker 1: We go. Main event, we'll talk Underdog plays, the Fight 20 00:01:25,480 --> 00:01:28,039 Speaker 1: of the Night, which the guys highlight another fight on 21 00:01:28,120 --> 00:01:31,520 Speaker 1: the card, props, A DFS breakdown from Billy and then 22 00:01:31,520 --> 00:01:33,760 Speaker 1: before we leave you best bets. 23 00:01:33,959 --> 00:01:36,280 Speaker 2: So Billy, we will start with you. 24 00:01:37,280 --> 00:01:40,280 Speaker 1: Ortega Rodriguez featherweight main event. 25 00:01:40,560 --> 00:01:43,319 Speaker 2: What's the play? Yeah, this is an interesting one. You know, 26 00:01:43,360 --> 00:01:45,920 Speaker 2: both guys might be two fights away, but I could 27 00:01:45,959 --> 00:01:47,720 Speaker 2: certainly see a case for either of them getting the 28 00:01:47,720 --> 00:01:49,560 Speaker 2: next title shot with a win here, depending on how 29 00:01:49,600 --> 00:01:52,120 Speaker 2: impressive they look. You know, Ortega's coming off the lost 30 00:01:52,120 --> 00:01:56,200 Speaker 2: to Volkanovski, his only other losses to Max Holloway. Rodriguez 31 00:01:56,240 --> 00:01:59,120 Speaker 2: similarly lost to Max Holloway in his last fight and 32 00:01:59,160 --> 00:02:01,400 Speaker 2: has only lost that in the UFCO, was five years 33 00:02:01,440 --> 00:02:04,120 Speaker 2: ago against Frankie Edgar. So these are both guys who've 34 00:02:04,360 --> 00:02:06,960 Speaker 2: beaten pretty much everyone at the lower level of the competition, 35 00:02:07,040 --> 00:02:08,839 Speaker 2: and both have had a couple shots at the high 36 00:02:08,919 --> 00:02:12,040 Speaker 2: end but have failed in those. And to a degree, 37 00:02:12,120 --> 00:02:14,639 Speaker 2: it's a striker versus grappler matchup where Rodriguez has a 38 00:02:14,639 --> 00:02:18,280 Speaker 2: taekwondo background, I believe, and it's probably the better striker here, 39 00:02:18,720 --> 00:02:20,799 Speaker 2: but both guys are good in both areas. You know, 40 00:02:20,919 --> 00:02:23,280 Speaker 2: Ortega's known for pulling out submissions out of nowhere, almost 41 00:02:23,600 --> 00:02:26,919 Speaker 2: Volkanovski with a guillotine. You know, regular listeners know my 42 00:02:27,080 --> 00:02:29,720 Speaker 2: disdain for pulling guillotines at any point. But Ortega's got 43 00:02:29,720 --> 00:02:31,680 Speaker 2: a good one and almost made it work. So it's 44 00:02:31,720 --> 00:02:33,920 Speaker 2: interesting in that regard. But the way I'm seeing it, 45 00:02:33,919 --> 00:02:37,520 Speaker 2: I see Rodriguez is fairly clearly the better striker. Ortega 46 00:02:37,560 --> 00:02:40,240 Speaker 2: has good power, but he has a negative striking differential. 47 00:02:40,400 --> 00:02:43,680 Speaker 2: His accuracy isn't great, his defense isn't great, where Rodriguez 48 00:02:43,760 --> 00:02:46,680 Speaker 2: lands more than he gets hit. You know, similarly, good power, 49 00:02:46,720 --> 00:02:48,960 Speaker 2: probably not quite as much one shot as Ortega, but 50 00:02:49,000 --> 00:02:51,640 Speaker 2: can get you with flurries and stuff like that. Definitely 51 00:02:51,720 --> 00:02:54,680 Speaker 2: better defense. So it really comes down to whether Ortega 52 00:02:54,720 --> 00:02:56,720 Speaker 2: can get this one to the ground or not. And 53 00:02:56,919 --> 00:02:58,799 Speaker 2: I have questions about that. He's got a twenty four 54 00:02:58,840 --> 00:03:01,639 Speaker 2: percent takedown accuracy in the USC, A lot of it 55 00:03:01,760 --> 00:03:04,680 Speaker 2: submissions of came when other people initiated the grappling. And 56 00:03:04,720 --> 00:03:06,360 Speaker 2: we also have the big cage here, even though this 57 00:03:06,400 --> 00:03:08,320 Speaker 2: isn't a pay per view, they're using the thirty foot 58 00:03:08,360 --> 00:03:11,720 Speaker 2: cage on Long Island. So with all that, I think Radriguez, 59 00:03:11,760 --> 00:03:13,440 Speaker 2: unless he comes in with the bad game plan, which 60 00:03:13,440 --> 00:03:15,480 Speaker 2: we've seen him do, in the past, and he initiates 61 00:03:15,520 --> 00:03:17,639 Speaker 2: any of the grappling. I actually like him in the 62 00:03:17,639 --> 00:03:19,400 Speaker 2: stand up exchanges, and I think most of this is 63 00:03:19,400 --> 00:03:21,400 Speaker 2: on the feet, so he's a slight underdog. You can 64 00:03:21,400 --> 00:03:23,680 Speaker 2: get him about plus one and forty five. If it 65 00:03:23,720 --> 00:03:25,480 Speaker 2: goes to the judges and we've got a plus forty 66 00:03:25,560 --> 00:03:28,040 Speaker 2: one five on one side of the card, I think 67 00:03:28,040 --> 00:03:29,720 Speaker 2: that's the better ticket to be holding any time we 68 00:03:29,800 --> 00:03:31,960 Speaker 2: go to a decision, because it's going to be fairly close. 69 00:03:32,000 --> 00:03:33,960 Speaker 2: I think if we make it there, and you know, 70 00:03:34,000 --> 00:03:35,680 Speaker 2: if you're interested in getting a little bit longer, if 71 00:03:35,680 --> 00:03:37,880 Speaker 2: a bet his inside the distance is plus three eighty, 72 00:03:37,920 --> 00:03:40,200 Speaker 2: I could see him putting Ortego away here. I don't 73 00:03:40,240 --> 00:03:42,080 Speaker 2: think he has like the big, big power to make 74 00:03:42,120 --> 00:03:44,440 Speaker 2: it likely against the guy that durable, but it's not 75 00:03:44,480 --> 00:03:46,160 Speaker 2: out of the question over five rounds. 76 00:03:46,600 --> 00:03:49,560 Speaker 1: So yeah, Rodriguez plus one forty five straight money line 77 00:03:49,640 --> 00:03:53,040 Speaker 1: or TAGA at minus one seventy. Let's go to Sean Zarrillo. 78 00:03:53,160 --> 00:03:54,800 Speaker 2: You're on the opposite. 79 00:03:54,320 --> 00:03:56,720 Speaker 1: Side of this one, Sean. And and just to kind 80 00:03:56,720 --> 00:03:59,520 Speaker 1: of bring up something, Billy said, the takedown accuracy for 81 00:03:59,600 --> 00:04:03,520 Speaker 1: Rodriguez is slightly higher than Ortegas. 82 00:04:03,720 --> 00:04:06,360 Speaker 3: I'd be pretty shocked if Rodriguez tries to take down 83 00:04:06,400 --> 00:04:08,480 Speaker 3: Brian Ortega because the last place he wants to be 84 00:04:09,200 --> 00:04:12,280 Speaker 3: is on the ground with him. One thing Billy didn't mention, 85 00:04:12,960 --> 00:04:15,560 Speaker 3: which wouldn't require Brian or Taga to wrestle, is the 86 00:04:15,560 --> 00:04:18,520 Speaker 3: fact that Yirariguez is a very reckless striker. Tends to 87 00:04:18,560 --> 00:04:21,760 Speaker 3: overextend on strikes in all of his matchups and ends 88 00:04:21,839 --> 00:04:24,360 Speaker 3: up slipping and falling and ending up on his back 89 00:04:24,880 --> 00:04:27,440 Speaker 3: on accident basically two or three times a fight. So 90 00:04:27,480 --> 00:04:29,320 Speaker 3: if that does happen, or Tega won't even need to 91 00:04:29,360 --> 00:04:32,960 Speaker 3: take down. He'll likely look to pounce from there. Certainly 92 00:04:33,040 --> 00:04:36,359 Speaker 3: view Rodriguez is the better striker. I think Ortega's striking 93 00:04:36,400 --> 00:04:38,680 Speaker 3: has leveled up, though two of his past three losses 94 00:04:38,760 --> 00:04:41,160 Speaker 3: came against the champion in the former champion, he got 95 00:04:41,200 --> 00:04:42,840 Speaker 3: beat up in both of those fights, but he had 96 00:04:42,839 --> 00:04:45,200 Speaker 3: a fight with Korean Zombie in between those two bouts, 97 00:04:45,440 --> 00:04:48,160 Speaker 3: and his striking looked improved, his wrestling looked improved. He 98 00:04:48,240 --> 00:04:50,800 Speaker 3: was probably the most complete effort of his career because 99 00:04:50,839 --> 00:04:54,279 Speaker 3: buying large throughout his career, he is losing rounds, losing minutes, 100 00:04:54,640 --> 00:04:57,000 Speaker 3: and then he manages to finish his fights. Started off 101 00:04:57,000 --> 00:04:59,560 Speaker 3: his UFC career with seven consecutive finishes. One of those 102 00:04:59,640 --> 00:05:03,120 Speaker 3: was overturned for I believe drug usage, but it wasn't 103 00:05:03,160 --> 00:05:05,840 Speaker 3: a performance enhancing drug. I think he'd smoke marijuana or 104 00:05:05,880 --> 00:05:09,240 Speaker 3: something stupid, and it basically should still be a submission 105 00:05:09,279 --> 00:05:12,359 Speaker 3: on his record, So seven consecutive finishes essentially to start 106 00:05:12,360 --> 00:05:15,640 Speaker 3: his UFC run, tends to be behind and then manages 107 00:05:15,680 --> 00:05:18,039 Speaker 3: to pull off a submission, but doesn't always need the 108 00:05:18,040 --> 00:05:21,200 Speaker 3: takedown either. Pulled off the standing gieteen against Cub Swanson's 109 00:05:21,320 --> 00:05:24,640 Speaker 3: very creative grappler, manages to find one or two moments 110 00:05:24,680 --> 00:05:27,440 Speaker 3: in his fights where he puts his opponent in danger, 111 00:05:27,800 --> 00:05:29,880 Speaker 3: and even said, despite the fact that I don't really 112 00:05:29,960 --> 00:05:32,919 Speaker 3: love his wrestling, he's landed takedowns seven takedowns in his 113 00:05:32,960 --> 00:05:35,880 Speaker 3: past three fights. Took bolkan Oski down twice, took Max 114 00:05:35,920 --> 00:05:39,279 Speaker 3: Holloway down, took Korean Zombie down three times. So he's 115 00:05:39,279 --> 00:05:42,160 Speaker 3: gotten takedowns against all these high level opponents. I think 116 00:05:42,160 --> 00:05:43,800 Speaker 3: he should be able to get takedowns here if he 117 00:05:43,920 --> 00:05:47,360 Speaker 3: wants them. Against Hiaria Rodriguez, Kauz Yayre has definitely been 118 00:05:47,400 --> 00:05:49,960 Speaker 3: manhandled in the grappling in the past, gave up his 119 00:05:50,000 --> 00:05:52,760 Speaker 3: back to Max Holloway, was taken down multiple times, lost 120 00:05:52,760 --> 00:05:55,920 Speaker 3: a round of control time to Holloway, who is definitely 121 00:05:55,920 --> 00:05:58,560 Speaker 3: more of a boxer, or take his grappling much more 122 00:05:58,680 --> 00:06:01,320 Speaker 3: high level, so his billy. If this goes to a decision, 123 00:06:01,360 --> 00:06:03,840 Speaker 3: I do expect it to be close. I probably wouldn't 124 00:06:03,880 --> 00:06:06,200 Speaker 3: want the Ortaga money line at minus one sixty five 125 00:06:06,240 --> 00:06:08,240 Speaker 3: minus one seventy if it's going to go the full 126 00:06:08,240 --> 00:06:11,840 Speaker 3: twenty five minutes. I basically make their decision props about equal. 127 00:06:12,279 --> 00:06:15,320 Speaker 3: Considering I still make Ortega a favorite, that basically means 128 00:06:15,360 --> 00:06:18,080 Speaker 3: I give more decision equity to our ear and it's 129 00:06:18,120 --> 00:06:19,680 Speaker 3: a fifty to fifty toss up if it goes to 130 00:06:19,720 --> 00:06:23,080 Speaker 3: the scorecards. But Ortega is a finisher, I'll go back 131 00:06:23,080 --> 00:06:25,720 Speaker 3: to that. He manages to finish his fights. Give him 132 00:06:25,720 --> 00:06:27,480 Speaker 3: twenty five minutes in there, he should have one or 133 00:06:27,520 --> 00:06:30,320 Speaker 3: two moments where he's able to get close to finishing 134 00:06:30,400 --> 00:06:33,120 Speaker 3: the fight, if not pull it off. Considering the differential 135 00:06:33,120 --> 00:06:35,520 Speaker 3: in the grappling, the fact that I think the striking 136 00:06:35,600 --> 00:06:38,279 Speaker 3: is a bit closer, then it may appear based off 137 00:06:38,279 --> 00:06:42,800 Speaker 3: authority against last performances. Ortega's submission line at a round 138 00:06:42,800 --> 00:06:45,680 Speaker 3: plus two to thirty at FanDuel projected that line closer 139 00:06:45,720 --> 00:06:48,080 Speaker 3: to plus one eighty, and he's inside the distance odds 140 00:06:48,080 --> 00:06:51,120 Speaker 3: at plus one fifty. I projected that number closer to 141 00:06:51,120 --> 00:06:53,520 Speaker 3: plus one fifteen to make a finish about seventy percent 142 00:06:53,560 --> 00:06:57,080 Speaker 3: of his win condition lake. Ortega's finish props lean to 143 00:06:57,160 --> 00:06:59,080 Speaker 3: the fight to end inside the distance in general, but 144 00:06:59,120 --> 00:07:01,560 Speaker 3: I'd prefer his finish props instead of laying minus one 145 00:07:01,640 --> 00:07:02,600 Speaker 3: forty on the fight to end. 146 00:07:02,600 --> 00:07:04,279 Speaker 2: By finish, It's fair. 147 00:07:04,080 --> 00:07:07,600 Speaker 1: To bring up Ortega's takedowns and compare them to Rodriguez 148 00:07:07,680 --> 00:07:10,360 Speaker 1: when you take the Holloway fight out of it. Previous 149 00:07:10,400 --> 00:07:13,480 Speaker 1: five fights no takedowns for Rodrigez. So two different styles 150 00:07:13,480 --> 00:07:16,800 Speaker 1: that clash in the main event on Long Island this weekend. 151 00:07:17,120 --> 00:07:20,080 Speaker 1: Let's go to our favorite underdog plays. We're always looking 152 00:07:20,080 --> 00:07:23,040 Speaker 1: for that value shop those lines. Billy will start with 153 00:07:23,080 --> 00:07:24,120 Speaker 1: you your favorite dog. 154 00:07:25,120 --> 00:07:27,200 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm looking at the opening main card bout between 155 00:07:27,240 --> 00:07:29,720 Speaker 2: Lauren Murphy and Mischa Tate, and this is one I 156 00:07:29,800 --> 00:07:32,720 Speaker 2: just I kind of don't get why Tate's even favored 157 00:07:32,760 --> 00:07:35,120 Speaker 2: to begin with. You know, she had almost five years 158 00:07:35,160 --> 00:07:38,200 Speaker 2: off of competition, comes back, beats a fighter who's now 159 00:07:38,280 --> 00:07:40,400 Speaker 2: nine to eight and one is a pro great, but 160 00:07:40,560 --> 00:07:42,800 Speaker 2: that doesn't really count for much, and then gets kind 161 00:07:42,800 --> 00:07:45,960 Speaker 2: of manhandled by Kaitlyn Vieira in the next fight. Now 162 00:07:45,960 --> 00:07:47,880 Speaker 2: she's dropping down to one twenty five. You know, I 163 00:07:47,880 --> 00:07:51,320 Speaker 2: really don't like older fighters. She's thirty five dropping down 164 00:07:51,320 --> 00:07:53,520 Speaker 2: a weight class. Sometimes I think it's it's kind of 165 00:07:53,560 --> 00:07:55,280 Speaker 2: like a last ditch effort, like I'm not gonna make 166 00:07:55,280 --> 00:07:57,160 Speaker 2: it at this one, so rather than get better, I'm 167 00:07:57,160 --> 00:07:58,600 Speaker 2: gonna try to move to a weight class where I 168 00:07:58,640 --> 00:08:01,880 Speaker 2: might be the bigger, stronger fighter. And Murphy's good. You know, 169 00:08:01,920 --> 00:08:03,560 Speaker 2: she's a little bit older at thirty eight, but she 170 00:08:03,600 --> 00:08:05,560 Speaker 2: was on a five fight winning streak before she lost 171 00:08:05,600 --> 00:08:09,360 Speaker 2: to Chevchenko, which, like you know, Chevchenko would destroy Misha 172 00:08:09,400 --> 00:08:10,960 Speaker 2: Tate as well, so I don't think we really hold 173 00:08:11,000 --> 00:08:13,400 Speaker 2: that one against her. And you can get her about 174 00:08:13,440 --> 00:08:15,800 Speaker 2: plus one eighty, so that seems like a pretty easy 175 00:08:15,800 --> 00:08:17,560 Speaker 2: one for me, just giving the layoff. You know, they're 176 00:08:17,600 --> 00:08:20,480 Speaker 2: both older, but Murphy's obviously been way more active in 177 00:08:20,520 --> 00:08:23,280 Speaker 2: recent years, and I'm just not impressed by you know, 178 00:08:23,320 --> 00:08:25,760 Speaker 2: the twenty twenty two version of Misha Tate until I'm 179 00:08:25,760 --> 00:08:26,320 Speaker 2: proven wrong. 180 00:08:28,200 --> 00:08:32,760 Speaker 3: How about you Zerrillo underdog play Ricky Simone around plus 181 00:08:32,800 --> 00:08:36,800 Speaker 3: one forty against Jack Shore American wrestler versus European grappler. 182 00:08:36,920 --> 00:08:39,680 Speaker 3: I think Shore is actually a pretty good prospect. Not 183 00:08:39,800 --> 00:08:43,200 Speaker 3: the most athletic guy, though, and I think Simone is 184 00:08:43,240 --> 00:08:46,920 Speaker 3: the better wrestler sure, probably the better technical striker. Simone's 185 00:08:46,960 --> 00:08:50,320 Speaker 3: striking has definitely leveled up over the years. But this 186 00:08:50,400 --> 00:08:54,440 Speaker 3: guy averages over thirteen takedowns per fifteen minutes of fight time, 187 00:08:54,760 --> 00:08:58,280 Speaker 3: lands more than half of them. Very high volume wrestler, 188 00:08:58,559 --> 00:09:00,959 Speaker 3: very adept wrestler. I think he's gonna be able to 189 00:09:01,000 --> 00:09:03,600 Speaker 3: take Short down here. I would expect the striking to 190 00:09:03,720 --> 00:09:06,880 Speaker 3: be relatively competitive. Ultimately, I see a fight that should 191 00:09:06,960 --> 00:09:10,000 Speaker 3: play out as basically a coin flip, and you're getting 192 00:09:10,000 --> 00:09:12,880 Speaker 3: the hometown judges for the American side of that fact 193 00:09:12,920 --> 00:09:15,280 Speaker 3: at plus money, So basically fight that should play out 194 00:09:15,320 --> 00:09:18,080 Speaker 3: as a coin flip, taking the plus one forty on 195 00:09:18,160 --> 00:09:19,760 Speaker 3: the guy of you as the superior wrestler. 196 00:09:21,000 --> 00:09:23,079 Speaker 1: The fight of the night this week for Billy and Sean. 197 00:09:23,360 --> 00:09:25,880 Speaker 1: If you scroll down in the main card, we've got 198 00:09:25,920 --> 00:09:31,720 Speaker 1: Shane Burgos and Charles Giordan, I've been practicing that all morning. Jordaan, 199 00:09:32,080 --> 00:09:36,360 Speaker 1: the Burgos, Billy's laughing, Billy, what's the angle on this fight? 200 00:09:38,200 --> 00:09:40,160 Speaker 2: No, I just I appreciate the effort you're putting into 201 00:09:40,240 --> 00:09:43,120 Speaker 2: some of these foreign pronunciations because you did really well 202 00:09:43,160 --> 00:09:45,400 Speaker 2: on Ortega and I'm not even gonna try to roll 203 00:09:45,440 --> 00:09:46,120 Speaker 2: the r on anything. 204 00:09:46,720 --> 00:09:50,040 Speaker 1: But no, it's just I had to bounce back because 205 00:09:50,080 --> 00:09:52,079 Speaker 1: last week was not great. Last week was just a 206 00:09:52,760 --> 00:09:54,920 Speaker 1: tough so I, you know, had to respond. 207 00:09:54,960 --> 00:10:00,240 Speaker 2: You know, yeah, this is a fight I'm certainly more 208 00:10:00,280 --> 00:10:02,360 Speaker 2: interested in watching than betting. You know, the line feels 209 00:10:02,360 --> 00:10:05,720 Speaker 2: about right. These are just really exciting, like high ection guys, 210 00:10:05,800 --> 00:10:08,840 Speaker 2: both have power, both can wrestle a little bit, you know, 211 00:10:08,880 --> 00:10:10,840 Speaker 2: I think it's going to be mostly a stand up fight, 212 00:10:11,320 --> 00:10:14,319 Speaker 2: but just the combined striking output between these two should 213 00:10:14,320 --> 00:10:17,160 Speaker 2: be insane. I'm seeing seventy six attempts per round out 214 00:10:17,160 --> 00:10:19,800 Speaker 2: of Burgos and fifty nine out of Jordaane. For some 215 00:10:19,840 --> 00:10:22,760 Speaker 2: context on that, it's usually about low forties attempted per round, 216 00:10:23,200 --> 00:10:25,679 Speaker 2: so collectively they're hitting almost double what we're going to 217 00:10:25,720 --> 00:10:28,240 Speaker 2: see in terms of total strikes. And yeah, both guys 218 00:10:28,240 --> 00:10:29,800 Speaker 2: have been good they're both kind of on the outside 219 00:10:29,840 --> 00:10:32,200 Speaker 2: of the top fifteen. I think with something like this, 220 00:10:32,280 --> 00:10:35,079 Speaker 2: where I expect some back and forth stand up more 221 00:10:35,160 --> 00:10:38,240 Speaker 2: or less similar power outputs, that would normally push me 222 00:10:38,280 --> 00:10:40,679 Speaker 2: towards the underdog, which would be Jordaane in here, I 223 00:10:40,679 --> 00:10:43,199 Speaker 2: do think Burgos is the better fighter and should be favored. 224 00:10:43,760 --> 00:10:46,120 Speaker 2: So you know, if that line moves a little bit 225 00:10:46,160 --> 00:10:48,640 Speaker 2: more as it's moved throughout the week towards Burgos, who's 226 00:10:48,679 --> 00:10:51,040 Speaker 2: now about minus one seventy, if I can get him 227 00:10:51,040 --> 00:10:53,120 Speaker 2: in about minus one fifty or so, I'll probably lay 228 00:10:53,160 --> 00:10:55,040 Speaker 2: that side. But for now I'm laying off or waiting 229 00:10:55,040 --> 00:10:56,280 Speaker 2: to see if I can get a better line on 230 00:10:56,320 --> 00:10:56,760 Speaker 2: either end. 231 00:10:57,800 --> 00:11:01,080 Speaker 3: What are your thoughts on this one, Zerrilla, I like 232 00:11:01,080 --> 00:11:02,920 Speaker 3: the Burgos side of the money line. I actually think 233 00:11:02,920 --> 00:11:06,560 Speaker 3: he's better everywhere. He's the bigger guy, six inch reach advantage, 234 00:11:06,600 --> 00:11:09,880 Speaker 3: two inches taller, He's a big featherweight Jordana on the 235 00:11:09,960 --> 00:11:13,839 Speaker 3: smaller side of the one forty five pound division. He's 236 00:11:13,880 --> 00:11:16,640 Speaker 3: also faced the much better competition Shane Burgos. He's been 237 00:11:16,640 --> 00:11:19,760 Speaker 3: competitive with the top contenders in the Vision, Calvin Cator, 238 00:11:19,880 --> 00:11:22,800 Speaker 3: Edson Barbosa, Josh Emmett been in close fights with all 239 00:11:22,800 --> 00:11:25,520 Speaker 3: of them, they get finished a couple times, but this 240 00:11:25,600 --> 00:11:27,719 Speaker 3: is a step up in competition for Jordain. This is 241 00:11:27,760 --> 00:11:31,040 Speaker 3: the most difficult test of his career. Burgos has already 242 00:11:31,080 --> 00:11:33,400 Speaker 3: been in there with better guys in my opinion, and 243 00:11:33,400 --> 00:11:35,800 Speaker 3: if anything, this is actually a step down in competition 244 00:11:35,840 --> 00:11:38,280 Speaker 3: for him. I'd favor him in a kickboxing match over 245 00:11:38,280 --> 00:11:42,400 Speaker 3: the course of fifteen minutes. Hits harder, longer, more output, 246 00:11:42,679 --> 00:11:45,400 Speaker 3: so definitely has clear advantages there in my opinion. He's 247 00:11:45,400 --> 00:11:48,199 Speaker 3: going to work the body too, which Jordaina hasn't necessarily 248 00:11:48,240 --> 00:11:50,800 Speaker 3: liked in the past, going to kick the leg as well. 249 00:11:50,880 --> 00:11:53,079 Speaker 3: But if he decides the grapple I think Burgos has 250 00:11:53,120 --> 00:11:56,960 Speaker 3: an advantage there too. He tends to get underlooked for 251 00:11:57,000 --> 00:12:00,640 Speaker 3: his grappling because he is a guy who hens the brawl, 252 00:12:00,720 --> 00:12:02,800 Speaker 3: get in high action fight to the night type bouts, 253 00:12:03,160 --> 00:12:05,080 Speaker 3: But when he decides to use the cage push on 254 00:12:05,120 --> 00:12:07,120 Speaker 3: people when his fights hit the mat, He's a very 255 00:12:07,120 --> 00:12:09,560 Speaker 3: adept grappler as while he actually came into MMA as 256 00:12:09,559 --> 00:12:12,480 Speaker 3: a grappler first, and his striking just got much better 257 00:12:12,520 --> 00:12:15,640 Speaker 3: over time and probably overtook his grappling. But really like 258 00:12:15,640 --> 00:12:18,560 Speaker 3: Burgos pretty much everywhere in this fight in terms of 259 00:12:18,559 --> 00:12:20,960 Speaker 3: being the better fighter, and he also has the physical 260 00:12:21,000 --> 00:12:24,040 Speaker 3: advantages as well, so basically see advantages for him across 261 00:12:24,040 --> 00:12:27,240 Speaker 3: the board. Finallyying his money line at minus one sixty. 262 00:12:26,920 --> 00:12:30,599 Speaker 1: Five that the DFS salaries or any indication Burgos is 263 00:12:30,720 --> 00:12:33,559 Speaker 1: nine thousand, Giordana is seventy two hundred. We'll get to 264 00:12:33,640 --> 00:12:36,600 Speaker 1: DFS in just a few minutes, but that's that's any 265 00:12:36,640 --> 00:12:40,080 Speaker 1: indication that kind of shows the distance between the two 266 00:12:40,800 --> 00:12:43,440 Speaker 1: in terms of their their ability or who might win 267 00:12:43,480 --> 00:12:48,360 Speaker 1: the fight. Let's move on to favorite props. Billy, who 268 00:12:48,360 --> 00:12:48,840 Speaker 1: are you looking? 269 00:12:50,840 --> 00:12:53,440 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm looking at the comin event between Amanda Lamosh 270 00:12:53,480 --> 00:12:56,240 Speaker 2: and Michelle Watterson. You know, for people who don't know 271 00:12:56,280 --> 00:12:58,520 Speaker 2: the backstory, Watterson was out for a little over a year. 272 00:12:58,960 --> 00:13:00,800 Speaker 2: No one's ever really came out and said what her 273 00:13:00,840 --> 00:13:03,240 Speaker 2: injury was, but she allegedly had some kind of career 274 00:13:03,280 --> 00:13:07,000 Speaker 2: threatening injury, thought about retiring, all that kind of stuff. 275 00:13:07,040 --> 00:13:09,120 Speaker 2: But she's back and she's fighting a man. To Lamosh, 276 00:13:09,360 --> 00:13:11,959 Speaker 2: they both have real similar striking styles, but they like 277 00:13:12,000 --> 00:13:14,080 Speaker 2: to sit on the outside and snipe. Neither throws at 278 00:13:14,080 --> 00:13:17,400 Speaker 2: a ton of volume, but Lemos just has crazy power 279 00:13:17,520 --> 00:13:20,920 Speaker 2: for a female fighter. Her knockdown rate is basically the 280 00:13:20,960 --> 00:13:24,080 Speaker 2: same as like Leijion Laying and Muslim Solikoff who are 281 00:13:24,120 --> 00:13:27,000 Speaker 2: fighting before them. She has almost as many knockdowns per 282 00:13:27,040 --> 00:13:29,920 Speaker 2: minute as those two combine, which is just insane for 283 00:13:30,040 --> 00:13:31,560 Speaker 2: you know, one hundred and twenty five pounds or one 284 00:13:31,600 --> 00:13:35,319 Speaker 2: hundred and fifteen pound female fight, and Waterson's kind of 285 00:13:35,400 --> 00:13:37,360 Speaker 2: hit aable. She's gonna sit on the outside against a 286 00:13:37,400 --> 00:13:39,760 Speaker 2: fighter who's an inch taller and with three inches more 287 00:13:39,760 --> 00:13:42,000 Speaker 2: in reach. I think Lemosh is gonna pick her off. 288 00:13:42,280 --> 00:13:44,240 Speaker 2: So I'm not gonna lay the minus three twenty five 289 00:13:44,280 --> 00:13:46,560 Speaker 2: on the Laimosh money line. You can get her inside 290 00:13:46,559 --> 00:13:48,920 Speaker 2: the distance at plus two hundred her knockout odds just 291 00:13:48,960 --> 00:13:51,600 Speaker 2: on their own or plus two twenty five, but you know, 292 00:13:51,880 --> 00:13:53,720 Speaker 2: I'll take a little bit worse value just in case 293 00:13:53,760 --> 00:13:55,599 Speaker 2: there's a club and sub situation or something like that 294 00:13:55,640 --> 00:13:58,120 Speaker 2: where she gets the tap and that just seems way 295 00:13:58,120 --> 00:14:00,240 Speaker 2: too long to me. I think this one is pretty 296 00:14:00,280 --> 00:14:02,480 Speaker 2: likely to end inside the distance. I think Lamosh is, 297 00:14:02,840 --> 00:14:06,280 Speaker 2: you know, a huge level above her and just physically stronger, 298 00:14:06,320 --> 00:14:08,920 Speaker 2: and the power differentials just insane, so I think she'll 299 00:14:08,920 --> 00:14:11,080 Speaker 2: be able to put her away. Don't like a fighter 300 00:14:11,160 --> 00:14:13,559 Speaker 2: coming off from a year long break with a possibly 301 00:14:13,640 --> 00:14:15,800 Speaker 2: career threatening injury as well. 302 00:14:15,840 --> 00:14:17,680 Speaker 1: Okay, we'll go to Sean Zerillo, and he did mention 303 00:14:17,760 --> 00:14:21,160 Speaker 1: earlier in the show he's into some Ortega props as well, 304 00:14:21,200 --> 00:14:23,440 Speaker 1: So if you want to scroll back and tune into that, 305 00:14:23,520 --> 00:14:25,360 Speaker 1: if you mentioned that at the end, there's Aerillo. But 306 00:14:25,400 --> 00:14:26,440 Speaker 1: what else you got for us? 307 00:14:26,680 --> 00:14:26,880 Speaker 2: Yeah? 308 00:14:26,920 --> 00:14:28,840 Speaker 3: I love those Arteaga finished props as opposed to his 309 00:14:28,920 --> 00:14:32,320 Speaker 3: money line. But my favorite fight from a prop perspective 310 00:14:32,440 --> 00:14:35,480 Speaker 3: is the matchup between Sumid Energy and Matt Schnell. It 311 00:14:35,560 --> 00:14:37,840 Speaker 3: is a flyweight bout flyweight, one of my favorite divisions 312 00:14:37,880 --> 00:14:40,880 Speaker 3: because this speed is so extreme at one twenty five. 313 00:14:41,560 --> 00:14:43,200 Speaker 3: I like the under two and a half rounds here 314 00:14:43,240 --> 00:14:45,120 Speaker 3: at minus one forty. The fight to end inside the 315 00:14:45,120 --> 00:14:47,200 Speaker 3: distance at minus one sixty, you could play, but if 316 00:14:47,240 --> 00:14:49,280 Speaker 3: this is going to finish, I expect it to finish, 317 00:14:49,720 --> 00:14:50,440 Speaker 3: probably on. 318 00:14:50,440 --> 00:14:51,200 Speaker 2: The earlier end. 319 00:14:51,240 --> 00:14:52,880 Speaker 3: Would rather have the under two and a half than 320 00:14:52,880 --> 00:14:54,760 Speaker 3: the under one and a half of plus money, though 321 00:14:55,080 --> 00:14:58,240 Speaker 3: this could play out as a very binary matchup Stedimid 322 00:14:58,360 --> 00:15:02,840 Speaker 3: Energy longer the better, and Matt Schnell has definitely shown 323 00:15:02,880 --> 00:15:05,480 Speaker 3: some durability concerns in the past. When you hit him clean, 324 00:15:06,040 --> 00:15:09,480 Speaker 3: you can certainly hurt him. But Madergy has been submitted 325 00:15:09,520 --> 00:15:11,440 Speaker 3: in all of his losses, and if Schnell is able 326 00:15:11,480 --> 00:15:13,240 Speaker 3: to get this fight to the ground, make it dirty, 327 00:15:13,520 --> 00:15:16,120 Speaker 3: turn this into a grappling match, I think he could 328 00:15:16,120 --> 00:15:19,680 Speaker 3: certainly find a finish via submission here in admission to 329 00:15:19,760 --> 00:15:21,840 Speaker 3: having some finishing upside on the feet as well, because 330 00:15:21,840 --> 00:15:24,080 Speaker 3: he hits pretty hard for one twenty five. But the 331 00:15:24,120 --> 00:15:26,600 Speaker 3: easiest path to victory for Schnell is to likely look 332 00:15:26,600 --> 00:15:29,640 Speaker 3: to grapple. Like his submission prop at plus eight hundred, 333 00:15:29,720 --> 00:15:31,480 Speaker 3: I think that's definitely going to be a dart throw 334 00:15:31,520 --> 00:15:33,840 Speaker 3: for me because I've made that line closer. 335 00:15:33,520 --> 00:15:34,440 Speaker 2: To plus five hundred. 336 00:15:34,680 --> 00:15:37,440 Speaker 3: But as a bet for the fight, I definitely prefer 337 00:15:37,480 --> 00:15:39,160 Speaker 3: the under two and a half rounds or the fight 338 00:15:39,200 --> 00:15:41,920 Speaker 3: to end inside the distance around minus one forty and 339 00:15:42,000 --> 00:15:43,640 Speaker 3: minus one sixty, respectively. 340 00:15:44,600 --> 00:15:49,720 Speaker 1: Moving on to the daily fantasy landscape for UFC Fight 341 00:15:49,840 --> 00:15:53,120 Speaker 1: Night or Tega v. Rodriguez again, it's at US UBS 342 00:15:53,200 --> 00:15:56,760 Speaker 1: Arena in Elmont on Long Island in New York, Billy. 343 00:15:58,400 --> 00:16:01,080 Speaker 1: What do you have for us? What's the what's the 344 00:16:01,160 --> 00:16:03,320 Speaker 1: lean here? What's the strategy lean to try and of course, 345 00:16:03,360 --> 00:16:05,400 Speaker 1: I mean, you know, we give strategy, and the key 346 00:16:05,440 --> 00:16:07,000 Speaker 1: to the whole thing is as we as we say 347 00:16:07,040 --> 00:16:08,960 Speaker 1: all the time, you got to have some differentiation and 348 00:16:09,000 --> 00:16:09,840 Speaker 1: try to be different. 349 00:16:09,920 --> 00:16:13,280 Speaker 2: How do you be different? Yeah, Unfortunately it's another twelve 350 00:16:13,320 --> 00:16:15,600 Speaker 2: fight card. The last couple we've I've thought we were 351 00:16:15,600 --> 00:16:17,480 Speaker 2: going to get more, but then something happens or somebody 352 00:16:17,480 --> 00:16:20,480 Speaker 2: gets dropped. So, you know, as you're mentioning, it's another one. 353 00:16:20,520 --> 00:16:24,000 Speaker 2: We're trying to stay differentiated and not have a duplicate 354 00:16:24,040 --> 00:16:26,040 Speaker 2: lineup is going to be a big priority, you know, 355 00:16:26,160 --> 00:16:27,680 Speaker 2: stuff like this. I'm to the point where I just 356 00:16:27,680 --> 00:16:29,880 Speaker 2: want to play smaller contests rather than trying to make 357 00:16:29,920 --> 00:16:32,640 Speaker 2: these weird lineups to get out of it. But this 358 00:16:32,680 --> 00:16:34,960 Speaker 2: one's tough. You know. I always say that we want 359 00:16:34,960 --> 00:16:36,760 Speaker 2: to leave some salary on the tables a way to 360 00:16:36,800 --> 00:16:38,960 Speaker 2: do that, but all of these expensive fighters are looking 361 00:16:39,000 --> 00:16:39,440 Speaker 2: pretty good. 362 00:16:39,440 --> 00:16:39,600 Speaker 1: You know. 363 00:16:39,600 --> 00:16:42,840 Speaker 2: I mentioned Lamosh is inside the distance. I generally don't 364 00:16:42,920 --> 00:16:45,720 Speaker 2: like rostering smaller female fighters when they're the most expensive 365 00:16:45,760 --> 00:16:48,200 Speaker 2: one on the slate, but she has enough power that 366 00:16:48,200 --> 00:16:49,720 Speaker 2: that one's going to be hard for me to avoid, 367 00:16:50,160 --> 00:16:53,280 Speaker 2: you know. Pouna Hale Soriano at ninety two hundred. That's 368 00:16:53,320 --> 00:16:55,880 Speaker 2: the fight that has the best odds end inside the distance. 369 00:16:55,960 --> 00:16:58,280 Speaker 2: He's got big power. Both of the guys in that 370 00:16:58,280 --> 00:17:01,120 Speaker 2: fight like to trade. You know, is very hittable. So 371 00:17:01,120 --> 00:17:03,760 Speaker 2: that's another one when I want both these expensive fighters, 372 00:17:03,800 --> 00:17:06,119 Speaker 2: it's hard to avoid getting close to the max of 373 00:17:06,160 --> 00:17:08,960 Speaker 2: the salary cap. But yeah, you know, just the one 374 00:17:09,000 --> 00:17:11,080 Speaker 2: strategy thing I want to hit on is a general 375 00:17:11,160 --> 00:17:14,040 Speaker 2: rule when we're looking at favorites, and especially for GPPs, 376 00:17:14,280 --> 00:17:16,080 Speaker 2: we want fights that are likely to end inside the 377 00:17:16,080 --> 00:17:18,120 Speaker 2: distance because we need those stoppage points from the more 378 00:17:18,119 --> 00:17:20,880 Speaker 2: expensive favorites, and we're looking at underdogs. That's why I'm 379 00:17:20,880 --> 00:17:23,080 Speaker 2: looking at fights that are a little bit less likely 380 00:17:23,119 --> 00:17:26,399 Speaker 2: to end inside the distance because with those just they 381 00:17:26,400 --> 00:17:28,360 Speaker 2: can usually get enough points just by going the whole 382 00:17:28,400 --> 00:17:30,760 Speaker 2: way to pay off, especially for cash. But even in 383 00:17:30,800 --> 00:17:33,440 Speaker 2: a GPP decision win, those are the kind of underdogs 384 00:17:33,440 --> 00:17:35,520 Speaker 2: we're looking at. So for those you know, Sean mentioned 385 00:17:35,520 --> 00:17:38,680 Speaker 2: the Ricky Simone rus Jack Shore fight. Simone's only seventy 386 00:17:38,720 --> 00:17:41,040 Speaker 2: eight hundred. That's one where even if he doesn't get 387 00:17:41,040 --> 00:17:42,919 Speaker 2: a win, there should be so many takedowns between the 388 00:17:42,960 --> 00:17:44,880 Speaker 2: two of them that there's a lot of points out there, 389 00:17:45,480 --> 00:17:47,840 Speaker 2: and then I mentioned Lauren Murphy already at seventy four hundred. 390 00:17:47,880 --> 00:17:50,320 Speaker 2: That's fight that almost definitely goes to a decision. She 391 00:17:50,320 --> 00:17:52,639 Speaker 2: should have enough striking volume in there to get some 392 00:17:52,760 --> 00:17:54,679 Speaker 2: points even in a loss. And we like you know, 393 00:17:54,720 --> 00:17:57,080 Speaker 2: we like both of those fighters as live dogs. So 394 00:17:57,119 --> 00:17:59,040 Speaker 2: those are the cheaper fighters. I'm looking at this week 395 00:17:59,240 --> 00:18:01,480 Speaker 2: more for cash games and Murphy's case, and then some 396 00:18:01,640 --> 00:18:03,840 Speaker 2: on I think it's a tremendous GPP play. 397 00:18:04,200 --> 00:18:06,040 Speaker 1: Kid away in Zura low on how you might want 398 00:18:06,040 --> 00:18:08,520 Speaker 1: to help the people make a lineup this week. 399 00:18:09,640 --> 00:18:11,960 Speaker 3: So Herbert Burns at around seventy five hundred, I think 400 00:18:11,960 --> 00:18:14,760 Speaker 3: most of his path to victory is a round one finish. 401 00:18:14,800 --> 00:18:16,800 Speaker 3: He's a guy who tends to fall off a cliff, 402 00:18:16,920 --> 00:18:19,480 Speaker 3: usually after the first round, which is why I look 403 00:18:19,520 --> 00:18:22,320 Speaker 3: the li I bet Bill Aljo after round one. It 404 00:18:22,440 --> 00:18:24,600 Speaker 3: probably a better number than you'll get pre fight. But 405 00:18:24,680 --> 00:18:27,960 Speaker 3: at seventy five hundred in terms of DSS salary and 406 00:18:28,000 --> 00:18:31,160 Speaker 3: given his expected wing condition, if Burns wins, he's probably 407 00:18:31,200 --> 00:18:33,439 Speaker 3: going to be in the optimal lineup. So in addition 408 00:18:33,480 --> 00:18:35,320 Speaker 3: to guys like Mat Chanel at seventy one hundred, who 409 00:18:35,359 --> 00:18:39,080 Speaker 3: I think can find a submission Lauren Murphy. As Billy mentioned, 410 00:18:39,160 --> 00:18:42,040 Speaker 3: I think those are solid dogs, even Yayra Rodriguez at 411 00:18:42,080 --> 00:18:44,800 Speaker 3: around seventy seven hundred. Even in a loss, he should 412 00:18:44,800 --> 00:18:47,160 Speaker 3: put up enough volume over the course of five rounds, 413 00:18:47,200 --> 00:18:51,000 Speaker 3: probably to end up being in that optimal lineup or 414 00:18:51,080 --> 00:18:53,080 Speaker 3: just end up winning. I could see him getting finished though, 415 00:18:53,080 --> 00:18:56,200 Speaker 3: which is why I bet the Ortagas side and why 416 00:18:56,280 --> 00:18:58,719 Speaker 3: I wouldn't use him heavily in cash game lineups. But 417 00:18:58,720 --> 00:19:00,720 Speaker 3: if you're looking at tournaments, I think career might be 418 00:19:00,760 --> 00:19:04,639 Speaker 3: a solid play. So definitely, like amongst that group, Herbert 419 00:19:04,640 --> 00:19:07,680 Speaker 3: Burns at seventy five hundred, would prefer him in a 420 00:19:07,760 --> 00:19:11,320 Speaker 3: DFS format as opposed to betting to give. 421 00:19:11,200 --> 00:19:14,240 Speaker 1: The people at home some intel on the Action Network podcast, 422 00:19:14,320 --> 00:19:18,240 Speaker 1: typically Billy and Sean will send out their picks the 423 00:19:18,320 --> 00:19:22,600 Speaker 1: night before before we record, and you know a lot 424 00:19:22,640 --> 00:19:24,760 Speaker 1: of different picks on the board. But here we are 425 00:19:24,760 --> 00:19:28,800 Speaker 1: at best bets and we've arrived. You're both on the 426 00:19:28,840 --> 00:19:32,240 Speaker 1: same best bet this week. Billy, why don't you tell 427 00:19:32,240 --> 00:19:33,879 Speaker 1: the people what it is? Then Sean can add to it. 428 00:19:35,000 --> 00:19:36,800 Speaker 2: I had no idea, actually didn't give the email from 429 00:19:36,840 --> 00:19:39,240 Speaker 2: Sean this week. So I was waiting in suspense as 430 00:19:39,240 --> 00:19:43,480 Speaker 2: you set this one up. Oh but yeah, So apparently 431 00:19:43,480 --> 00:19:46,639 Speaker 2: we're both on Li Jing Lang. He's fighting Muslim Salakov. 432 00:19:47,320 --> 00:19:50,240 Speaker 2: The way I say it, they're both fairly similar fighters stylistically. 433 00:19:50,600 --> 00:19:52,560 Speaker 2: You know, they both have a somba background, which, for 434 00:19:52,600 --> 00:19:55,640 Speaker 2: those who don't know, it's basically Mma without the groundwork 435 00:19:55,680 --> 00:19:57,359 Speaker 2: once it gets to the ground, but you're still allowed 436 00:19:57,359 --> 00:19:59,600 Speaker 2: to do trips and throws and takedowns and stuff like that. 437 00:20:00,040 --> 00:20:02,760 Speaker 2: Both that fairly good striking volume, fairly good power for 438 00:20:02,880 --> 00:20:04,560 Speaker 2: me to a degree, it's an age play. You know. 439 00:20:04,640 --> 00:20:08,000 Speaker 2: Solakoff's thirty eight hasn't foughten over a year. The fighter 440 00:20:08,040 --> 00:20:09,880 Speaker 2: he fought then was like forty two at the time, 441 00:20:09,920 --> 00:20:12,600 Speaker 2: so he really hasn't been almost two years since he's 442 00:20:12,600 --> 00:20:16,600 Speaker 2: fought a still in their prime fighter. And Shane Lang 443 00:20:16,640 --> 00:20:18,200 Speaker 2: has lost two of his last three, but he was 444 00:20:18,280 --> 00:20:21,439 Speaker 2: sacrificed to Comzat, which can't hold that against anyone, and 445 00:20:21,480 --> 00:20:23,680 Speaker 2: then he'd lost to a close decision to Neil Magne. 446 00:20:23,840 --> 00:20:26,760 Speaker 2: Outside of that, he's been really really good, huge power. 447 00:20:27,040 --> 00:20:28,880 Speaker 2: You know, both guys are going to kind of look 448 00:20:28,920 --> 00:20:31,639 Speaker 2: for that one shot so getting him at plus money, 449 00:20:31,720 --> 00:20:34,040 Speaker 2: I can still see plus one forty four at FanDuel 450 00:20:34,119 --> 00:20:36,320 Speaker 2: right now. I think that's a pretty good value. 451 00:20:37,000 --> 00:20:39,240 Speaker 1: All right, Sean, why are you on this pick as well? 452 00:20:39,920 --> 00:20:40,120 Speaker 2: Yeah? 453 00:20:40,160 --> 00:20:42,280 Speaker 3: And Shane Bergos would be my other favorite bet on 454 00:20:42,320 --> 00:20:44,159 Speaker 3: this card. I was gonna put the leech under my 455 00:20:44,200 --> 00:20:47,200 Speaker 3: favorite underdog, but really he is the largest projected edge 456 00:20:47,200 --> 00:20:49,840 Speaker 3: that I have for any money line on this slate. 457 00:20:49,960 --> 00:20:52,320 Speaker 3: I think this fight is basically a coin flip at 458 00:20:52,320 --> 00:20:56,040 Speaker 3: worse for him, he checks so many boxes, but particularly 459 00:20:56,080 --> 00:20:59,400 Speaker 3: with a plus number next to his name, better volume face, 460 00:20:59,480 --> 00:21:02,520 Speaker 3: the better competition. He's younger, he's longer, he's taller, he 461 00:21:02,600 --> 00:21:05,359 Speaker 3: hits just as hard. This is going to be a 462 00:21:05,359 --> 00:21:08,040 Speaker 3: competitive fight at minimum, or one of them is going 463 00:21:08,080 --> 00:21:10,080 Speaker 3: to get finished. But I would make their finishing upside 464 00:21:10,119 --> 00:21:12,480 Speaker 3: relatively equals. So I'm always going to be willing to 465 00:21:12,560 --> 00:21:16,480 Speaker 3: roll with plus money from that standpoint, considering he checks 466 00:21:16,560 --> 00:21:20,240 Speaker 3: almost every single box to not only make this fight competitive, 467 00:21:20,240 --> 00:21:24,040 Speaker 3: but even to have potential advantages here, maybe Solikov is 468 00:21:24,080 --> 00:21:26,240 Speaker 3: able to grapple him take him down. It's not the 469 00:21:26,280 --> 00:21:28,359 Speaker 3: type of fighter he is, and he doesn't have the 470 00:21:28,400 --> 00:21:30,720 Speaker 3: best gas tank either, so that actually, if he does 471 00:21:30,760 --> 00:21:33,160 Speaker 3: try to grapple and doesn't have a success with it, 472 00:21:33,160 --> 00:21:36,120 Speaker 3: it's just going to end up adding to Leech's side 473 00:21:36,160 --> 00:21:39,040 Speaker 3: of the equation. So le Jong Lang about plus one 474 00:21:39,200 --> 00:21:42,000 Speaker 3: forty plus one forty five absolutely a bet for me, 475 00:21:42,400 --> 00:21:43,720 Speaker 3: like it down to about plus one ten. 476 00:21:45,119 --> 00:21:49,080 Speaker 1: Excellent, great work as always, MMA analyst at the Action Network, 477 00:21:49,320 --> 00:21:52,960 Speaker 1: Billy Ward. Action Network Senior writer Sean Zarillo. That is 478 00:21:52,960 --> 00:21:56,280 Speaker 1: going to do it for this week's UFC Betting Preview. 479 00:21:56,280 --> 00:21:59,439 Speaker 1: We will join you again next Friday. We'll get you 480 00:21:59,520 --> 00:22:03,600 Speaker 1: set for UFC Fight Night that's taking place in London 481 00:22:03,840 --> 00:22:05,280 Speaker 1: next week, so looking forward to that. 482 00:22:05,359 --> 00:22:07,080 Speaker 2: And we will join you then. 483 00:22:07,400 --> 00:22:09,479 Speaker 1: I'm your host, Brendan glas Sheen again, thanks to all 484 00:22:09,520 --> 00:22:12,480 Speaker 1: of you tuning into the Action Network Podcast, Episode six 485 00:22:12,640 --> 00:22:13,800 Speaker 1: hundred in. 486 00:22:13,720 --> 00:22:15,040 Speaker 2: The Books after today. 487 00:22:15,080 --> 00:22:17,760 Speaker 1: Good luck this weekend, Have a great weekend everybody, and 488 00:22:17,800 --> 00:22:18,640 Speaker 1: we'll join you next time.