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Speaker 1: here at the Volume. Happy Thursday, everybody. Hope all you
Speaker 1: guys are having an incredible week. Gonna just do a
Speaker 1: quick show today, Just gonna talk a little bit about
Speaker 1: the Celtics heat game last night as the Heat just
Speaker 1: continue to do Miami Heat stuff and upset a Boston
Speaker 1: Celtics team that is unfathomably more talented last night on
Speaker 1: the road, winning by double figures, making twenty three threes
Speaker 1: on fifty four percent. That's the main concept I want
Speaker 1: to dive in today's shot variants and what went wrong
Speaker 1: for the Celtics defensively. You guys know the joke before
Speaker 1: we get started. Subscribe to our brand new YouTube channel
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Speaker 1: you get your podcast under oops tonight, and then also
Speaker 1: keep dropping mail back questions in the YouTube comments. We
Speaker 1: hit one in yesterday's show, but we'll hit another one
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Speaker 1: let's talk some basketball. So you know, obviously every time
Speaker 1: that this sort of thing happens. And when I say
Speaker 1: this sort of thing, I mean a team gets red
Speaker 1: hot from three and makes a bunch of shots, the
Speaker 1: conversation has a tendency to shift in the direction of
Speaker 1: luck or shot variants or they just got red hot,
Speaker 1: you know, making it more a product of something that's
Speaker 1: out of your control rather than something that's in your control. Now,
Speaker 1: before we go any further, I want to be clear.
Speaker 1: I do believe that shot variance does play a role
Speaker 1: in basketball games. Anybody who's ever played knows that that's
Speaker 1: a thing. I just think it gets overplayed a little
Speaker 1: bit when we're talking about this sort of thing. In
Speaker 1: addition to that, I think it's absolutely pointless to focus
Speaker 1: on in any way, shape or form as a basketball
Speaker 1: team because it doesn't do anything for you. For all
Speaker 1: of you guy who were listening. Yesterday, I went on
Speaker 1: with Ethan Strauss from House of Strauss and we talked
Speaker 1: for an hour and a half all over the place.
Speaker 1: We talked a little bit about my origin story. We
Speaker 1: talked about the media landscape and kind of how interesting
Speaker 1: things have changed and new avenues to kind of get
Speaker 1: into the industry. But towards the tail end of the
Speaker 1: show we got into like a pretty long discussion about
Speaker 1: the role of luck in sports and how to address
Speaker 1: that and how to cope with that and deal with
Speaker 1: that as a basketball team or even just as an individual.
Speaker 1: And I thought it was super, super interesting and honestly,
Speaker 1: flowing into last night's game, it's literally like the perfect
Speaker 1: kind of setup. So make sure you guys check that
Speaker 1: one out. I tweeted out the link on my Twitter feed,
Speaker 1: but anywhere you can get House of Strauss there on
Speaker 1: YouTube as well if you don't have the substack. But
Speaker 1: Ethan does great work. I recommend you guys subscribe to
Speaker 1: him on his substack as well. But make sure you
Speaker 1: guys check that one out. But when we were talking,
Speaker 1: as far as luck goes, there's a certain amount of
Speaker 1: trying to take control of what you can control, right
Speaker 1: and especially as a basketball team, as you're as you're
Speaker 1: trying to compartmentalize something like what happened last night, you
Speaker 1: have to focus on it from the perspective of what
Speaker 1: you can control. So what I did this morning as
Speaker 1: I went through and I charted every single three point
Speaker 1: attempt that the Miami Heat attempted in this game against
Speaker 1: the Celtics, and twenty three may threes on fifty four
Speaker 1: percent on the surface, feels like, damn man, they just
Speaker 1: were making everything right, Like, that's the way you're gonna
Speaker 1: look at that. But of those of those forty three attempts,
Speaker 1: I had twenty seven of them marked as defensive lapses.
Speaker 1: Twenty seven out of forty three. I charted all three.
Speaker 1: I charted all forty three three point attempts into three categories.
Speaker 1: Make them miss, meaning you get an awesome contest and
Speaker 1: you'd be surprised if the person makes that shot. They
Speaker 1: only made them miss, so to speak, on five attempts,
Speaker 1: and one of them went in. There was a heavily
Speaker 1: contested Duncan Robinsons shot that went in, so they were
Speaker 1: one for five. They shot twenty percent on shots that
Speaker 1: you heavily contested. The next tier is what I call
Speaker 1: game plan acceptable. These are threes that are like quality
Speaker 1: looks in the sense that the person is relatively open,
Speaker 1: has their feed set, it is rising up, but it's
Speaker 1: either something that you kind of have to concede as
Speaker 1: part of the coverage, or it's a player that you're
Speaker 1: comfortable closing out short on. Okay, now, these went in
Speaker 1: Miami's favor. They went five for eleven on these. That's
Speaker 1: a really good percentage on those, right, Like normally you're
Speaker 1: hoping the game plan acceptable type of shots that they
Speaker 1: go something like three for eleven, right, But I'm a
Speaker 1: big believer that even that one make them misshot that
Speaker 1: went in, and the five out of eleven game plan
Speaker 1: acceptable shots that went in, they are kind of a
Speaker 1: byproduct of how often you let them get comfortable. Twenty
Speaker 1: seven times in this game they let a good shooter
Speaker 1: open by virtue of a defensive laps, and they made
Speaker 1: eighteen of those, and that's a really really high percentage.
Speaker 1: I want to be clear, Even there is a universe
Speaker 1: where you play that same defensive game and they don't
Speaker 1: shoot fifty four percent, that's the very in sliment. But
Speaker 1: when I talk about controlling what you control, this is
Speaker 1: this is literally what I mean. If we all agree
Speaker 1: that on any given night, it's possible that a team
Speaker 1: could shoot you out of the gym, if we all
Speaker 1: just agree that that's a risk, then we have to
Speaker 1: talk about how often it happens to you and how
Speaker 1: often you allow it to happen to you. Because if
Speaker 1: you control what you can control, and you avoid those
Speaker 1: defensive lapses, and you apply ball pressure and you make
Speaker 1: shooters feel uncomfortable, and you chase them off the line,
Speaker 1: and you do all of these things, it is far
Speaker 1: more likely that you will avoid the barrage. Right, might
Speaker 1: still happen. We've all seen games where the Miami Heat
Speaker 1: or other teams just make a bunch of threes despite
Speaker 1: the fact that you're playing pretty damn good defense, usually
Speaker 1: not fifty four percent. We've seen teams play really good
Speaker 1: defense and a team still shoot forty forty two to
Speaker 1: forty three percent from three. Right, That's something that can
Speaker 1: happen that is out of your control sometimes. But there
Speaker 1: if you play defense the way the Celtics did last night,
Speaker 1: you are inviting a higher likelihood that this could happen.
Speaker 1: And so again, like I'm not going to bury the
Speaker 1: Boston Celtics today, I think that's that's not something that
Speaker 1: I agree with. I think they're clearly playing down to
Speaker 1: their competition. They are the only team in this sixteen
Speaker 1: team field right now that is playing with a substantial
Speaker 1: talent advantage, like a massive talent advantage everyone else. Even
Speaker 1: series like where Giannis is out, I still think the
Speaker 1: Pacers and Bucks are kind of close. It's mostly matchups
Speaker 1: that I think have allowed the Pacers to tie the series. Right,
Speaker 1: the thunder blew out the Pelicans last night, super impressive,
Speaker 1: impressive game. They shot the three really well as well.
Speaker 1: They are more talented than the Pelicans. But it's it's
Speaker 1: closer than this, right, the Lakers that they have their
Speaker 1: issues with Denver, but the talent gap isn't some sort
Speaker 1: of massive chasm and more has to do with matchups
Speaker 1: and the Jokics problem. Right, this series, Boston has a
Speaker 1: gigantic talent advantage. They're playing down to their competition. Now,
Speaker 1: where does that matter in the grand scheme? In my opinion,
Speaker 1: as I mentioned before we got into this postseason run,
Speaker 1: Boston is going to have a relatively easy second round too.
Speaker 1: They're gonna get the winner of Cleveland Orlando and they're
Speaker 1: gonna go. It'll be a smaller talent advantage than this
Speaker 1: Miami series because Jimmy Butler's been out right and Terry
Speaker 1: Rosier has been out But in terms of the UH,
Speaker 1: in terms of the talent advantage versus Cleveland Orlando, it's
Speaker 1: still relatively substantial. Right. You're gonna be feeling good and
Speaker 1: confident in that series. So you're gonna walk into a
Speaker 1: conference final series against a substantially better team than the
Speaker 1: first two rounds you played, and then you could potentially
Speaker 1: run into Denver or the team who survived the Denver
Speaker 1: Gauntlet in the finals, and you need to be sharp
Speaker 1: when you get there. You can't afford to drop games
Speaker 1: early in the series because you're playing bad basketball. And so,
Speaker 1: while I'm not out on the Celtics or like view
Speaker 1: last night as some sort of grand indictment of their
Speaker 1: capability of hoisting the trophy this year, it is concerning
Speaker 1: in the sense that, like it makes me feel like
Speaker 1: they're not all that serious. Right now, guys, wait till
Speaker 1: you see this film. We're about to look at the
Speaker 1: film here in a minute. It ain't pretty. There are
Speaker 1: guys getting lost off ball all the time. They're guys
Speaker 1: chasing Tyler Harrow around, jogging around screens. It's not pretty.
Speaker 1: They did not have a They looked like a regular
Speaker 1: season team in January. That's the type of effort that
Speaker 1: we saw, not a NBA playoff team that's trying to
Speaker 1: stomp on a team's neck. Right. And so again, like
Speaker 1: as we kind of zoom out and go to look
Speaker 1: at the film, I just want us to keep that
Speaker 1: in mind, Like luck is a thing. That happens in
Speaker 1: basketball games. Luck is the thing that happens in life.
Speaker 1: There's a certain amount of things that are out of
Speaker 1: your control, right, but generally speaking, you can create your
Speaker 1: own luck. And one of the big ways to do
Speaker 1: that in the basketball court is if you play the
Speaker 1: right way, you minimize variance, and that goes on both
Speaker 1: ends of the floor. But we're gonna focus on shooting
Speaker 1: for today. So on that note, let's get into the film,
Speaker 1: all right. So, as I mentioned before, twenty seven of
Speaker 1: the threes were what I would consider to be defensive lapses,
Speaker 1: and they made eighteen of them. I'm going to kind
Speaker 1: of just as we're working through, I'll just kind of
Speaker 1: tell you my thoughts on the coverage with each shot.
Speaker 1: So the first three three point shots of the game,
Speaker 1: we're all for Nikola Yovich and they were all on
Speaker 1: pointless help here. So we have a ball screen with
Speaker 1: Jaimihakes coming downhill here, right, So as he's coming downhill,
Speaker 1: Porzingis is in a drop coverage. Right. In addition to that,
Speaker 1: you have Jaylen Brown who can kind of help off
Speaker 1: of this this corner side here, there's people in the paint,
Speaker 1: but there's no advantage here Porzingis is in a good
Speaker 1: position to kind of contain both of these guys. Right,
Speaker 1: Derek White is just sagging down to the block for
Speaker 1: no particular reason. He's not stunting, he's not doubling, I may,
Speaker 1: He's just standing there. So we're gonna get a catch
Speaker 1: and shoot three for nikol Jovitch. Okay, not a bad contest,
Speaker 1: not a bad defensive possession in like the sense that
Speaker 1: it was like a catastrophic breakdown, but you overhelped in
Speaker 1: an unnecessary way, accomplished nothing and gave a relatively clean
Speaker 1: catch and shoot. Look, especially within the context of the playoffs.
Speaker 1: Next one's worse by the way, Yovic just made one, right,
Speaker 1: So now you're thinking, Okay, Yovich is feeling good, he's confident.
Speaker 1: He just made it three. Right. We have Bam here.
Speaker 1: BAM's working against Porzingis. Tyler Harrow is gonna come off
Speaker 1: of a dhow Here here comes the dribble handoff coming downhill.
Speaker 1: Porzingis is in position in the drop coverage to handle this.
Speaker 1: You have guys digging down on the weak side. Two.
Speaker 1: Jalen Brown is helping out of the strong side corner
Speaker 1: for absolutely no reason on a guy who just made
Speaker 1: a three helps out of the strong side corner, easy
Speaker 1: read for Tyler Harrow on the kickout knocks it down.
Speaker 1: So now two, we're two for two with Nikole Yovich,
Speaker 1: both on overhelp possessions in ball screens. So you'd think
Speaker 1: we're gonna take this a little bit more seriously. Now
Speaker 1: Yovich has got it going right, Well, we have a
Speaker 1: transition possession here. Yovich is gonna catch on the right wing. Now,
Speaker 1: Jalen Brown knows Yovich just made two. He can see
Speaker 1: the ball, he knows this is coming here right. So
Speaker 1: what would you do in this circumstance. You would hard
Speaker 1: close out to his left hand side to funnel him
Speaker 1: back towards the baseline. And no matter what, you're chasing
Speaker 1: him off the line because he just made two. Instead,
Speaker 1: Jalen's gonna throw a short clothes out at him, look
Speaker 1: short close out and just kind of offer a token
Speaker 1: contest that one missed, but I charted that as a
Speaker 1: defensive breakdown like that. The guy just made two threes
Speaker 1: off of your overhelp. He's confident and comfortable. Why are
Speaker 1: you not hard chasing him off the line. This next
Speaker 1: one is a bam pick and pop, so again Porzingis
Speaker 1: is in his drop coverage. Notice all of a sudden
Speaker 1: they're not helping as much out of the corners. Then
Speaker 1: Bam is popping. Bam shot pretty well on these pick
Speaker 1: and pop threes and these kind of like wide open,
Speaker 1: uncontested threes. This year, I want to say he was
Speaker 1: like eighteen for forty or something like that, nineteen for forty,
Speaker 1: but again, just pretty low volume, and generally speaking, as
Speaker 1: a game plan, I consider this to be game plan acceptable.
Speaker 1: So we're zero for one on the game plan acceptable
Speaker 1: threes at this point. Now on this one, I viewed
Speaker 1: this as game plan acceptable too. If you can see
Speaker 1: here as Tyler Harrow is getting ready for this ball screen,
Speaker 1: Jalen Brown's just kind of digging down, digging down. I
Speaker 1: don't have a problem with as long as you're in
Speaker 1: a position to rotate. It's when you're hard sitting down
Speaker 1: at the nail and out of positioned to rotate that
Speaker 1: it doesn't make sense. This is a good a good
Speaker 1: close out, good short close out, especially at this point.
Speaker 1: Jime hasn't made a three yet and it's early in
Speaker 1: the game, so you're not viewing this as a Miami
Speaker 1: Brage yet didn't have a problem with that one. This
Speaker 1: is just a really bad pick and roll defense. There's
Speaker 1: no ball pressure, no one's making Tyler uncomfortable, no one's
Speaker 1: flattening out his drive. Al Horford is skewed way too
Speaker 1: far over to Bam, so Tyler is able to kind
Speaker 1: of get really far downhill into here. That forces porzingis
Speaker 1: to come over, easy clean catch for Bam, easy pass
Speaker 1: to Jovich, easy extra pass to Hakez. So again that's
Speaker 1: just you're giving up way too easy dribble penetration in
Speaker 1: pick and roll. So again, all three threes that Miami
Speaker 1: has made to this point have been on defensive breakdowns.
Speaker 1: Tyler Harrow is their best pull up shooter, right, and
Speaker 1: this is basically triggering triggering a what a switch, right,
Speaker 1: So normally the Celtics would switch this action right. So
Speaker 1: essentially as that balls comes this kind of smart action
Speaker 1: from uh from Miami to begin with. Usually, when you
Speaker 1: are switching a screen like this, you want to make
Speaker 1: sure you don't give up inside position for the slip,
Speaker 1: so Jalen's dropping onto that low side. But this is
Speaker 1: we gotta there's gotta be more ball pressure and something
Speaker 1: making Tyler Harrow uncomfortable. Notice just from the start of
Speaker 1: this possession, there's no contact, there's no physicality. Tyler Harrow
Speaker 1: is just confidently and comfortably setting into a step back
Speaker 1: jump shot. I viewed that as a defensive breakdown as well,
Speaker 1: simply because Tyler Harrow is their best pull up shooter
Speaker 1: and their best ball handler and you're doing nothing to
Speaker 1: make him uncomfortable. Now we're dying on a screen with
Speaker 1: no show. Okay, Tyler just made one. Tyler just made one.
Speaker 1: BAM's coming up to set a ball screen. Guy on
Speaker 1: ball is dying on the screen. No show from from
Speaker 1: Porzingis that misses. But that's not good defense, Like you're
Speaker 1: you're fortunate when you when you when Tyler Harrow misses
Speaker 1: that shot. This was I thought a really uh Tyler
Speaker 1: Harrow did a lot of this today or last night's game.
Speaker 1: E would pick on Samer, he'd pick on Horford, get
Speaker 1: him in switches or porzingis as well to get him
Speaker 1: in switches and then put him into additional actions. So
Speaker 1: we have this ball screen and then the dribble handoff right,
Speaker 1: so that leads to the switch. So now you have
Speaker 1: to understand the play is developing at this point, So
Speaker 1: Tyler Harrow gets the matchup he wants. Now they're going
Speaker 1: to flow into a ghost screen with Duncan Robinson. So
Speaker 1: Jalen Brown is staring at this entire situation, and he's
Speaker 1: guarding Caleb Martin, who's a guy who can make shots,
Speaker 1: especially when he's uncontested, but a guy that you're less
Speaker 1: worried about than Duncan Robinson. Right, So on the ghost screen,
Speaker 1: we know we're going to get a hedge from Peyton
Speaker 1: Pritchard because he wants to cut off that driving lane. Right,
Speaker 1: So there's our hedge, but there's still no rotation. Jalen
Speaker 1: Brown hasn't moved Duncan Robinson. You have to understand, as
Speaker 1: he's just staring at this entire action, he has to
Speaker 1: see the ghost screen coming and understand that this is
Speaker 1: going to get open by virtue of the hedge, and
Speaker 1: instead Duncan Robinson gets a clean look and knocks it down.
Speaker 1: So every single three point make to this point has
Speaker 1: been on a defensive breakdown on this one. As we
Speaker 1: get see Peyton Pritchard just gets caught on another screen.
Speaker 1: As a result of him getting caught on another screen,
Speaker 1: Jalen Brown has no choice but to step up, and
Speaker 1: Horford obviously is worried about the role. And again, Caleb Martin,
Speaker 1: you're thinking, I'm sure there were a lot of Celtics
Speaker 1: fans last night, like, damn it, Caleb Martin keeps making shots.
Speaker 1: This is such bullshit. Caleb Martin always gets hot against us.
Speaker 1: Caleb Martin wide open catch and shoot threes for the
Speaker 1: entire regular season one point twenty four points per shot.
Speaker 1: This is a very high quality shot for Caleb Martin.
Speaker 1: You can't you can close out short and you can
Speaker 1: offer token contests, you cannot leave him uncontested. He will
Speaker 1: make that shot. He did it all season long. And
Speaker 1: again we also know he's a streaky shooter, so once
Speaker 1: he gets going with shots like this, he will make
Speaker 1: the tougher ones. So we're still at this point. Every
Speaker 1: single defensive breakdown has led to a made shot. Again,
Speaker 1: same sort of thing here that one I called game
Speaker 1: plan acceptable. It's a transition pull up three kind of
Speaker 1: type of shot for Caleb Martin. You live with that
Speaker 1: with the results there. So, by the way, they have
Speaker 1: not made a shot yet that was either acceptable to
Speaker 1: the game plan or well defended to the point where
Speaker 1: he made the miss. Gotta love the random transition three
Speaker 1: is from Boston just a staple at this point. So
Speaker 1: so okay, Tyler Harrow has already made a three and
Speaker 1: is their best ball hand alert. Nobody picks him up
Speaker 1: and he just walks into a transition pull up three, Like,
Speaker 1: this is not good defense, guys, they'll double drag this time.
Speaker 1: Peyton Pritchard stays attached and doesn't get screened. That's good defense,
Speaker 1: but we miss him. Hawks on the backside drives. I
Speaker 1: actually thought this was game plan acceptable as well, so
Speaker 1: as Hi May drives on Peyton Pritchard. Jim has been
Speaker 1: killing smaller guards and post ups most of the season.
Speaker 1: I understood the aggressive uh the aggressive show here. I
Speaker 1: think you kind of have to live with that shot.
Speaker 1: And also I thought Tatum had a good rotation back again,
Speaker 1: like you're as a game plan, you kind of have
Speaker 1: to double here, really good effort and close out from
Speaker 1: Tatum and you force a miss even if that goes in.
Speaker 1: Though I kind of more or less view that one
Speaker 1: as acceptable within the game plan, you know, a little
Speaker 1: ghost screen action, So this one too, I put his
Speaker 1: game plan acceptable, Like you're closing out short on Hakez
Speaker 1: here he just knocks down the shot, the one, the
Speaker 1: one gripe, I have theirs. There's not much time left
Speaker 1: on the shot clock. But also it's worth mentioning like
Speaker 1: this is where things involving comfort and confidence play into
Speaker 1: the equation. Guys are gonna start that's our first shot
Speaker 1: that got made. That was a good like kind of
Speaker 1: like an acceptable shot within the game plan. You're gonna
Speaker 1: see those go in more often on nights when you
Speaker 1: have defensive breakdowns on twenty seven of your forty three
Speaker 1: three point attempts. That's really good defense. That's that's I
Speaker 1: put that one as the first one where you made
Speaker 1: him miss. Played excellent defense on the ball, forced him
Speaker 1: into a really difficult step back contest to jump shot.
Speaker 1: You forced a miss. So for those keeping track, they're
Speaker 1: like one or one for five or one for six
Speaker 1: on game plan acceptable shots, and then they've made a
Speaker 1: bunch of the defensive breakdown shots I had. That one
Speaker 1: is good defense. He's coming downhill, there's a little bit
Speaker 1: of a token help from a Hoarford, but he immediately
Speaker 1: identifies the pass, closes out hard and gets a good
Speaker 1: contest and forces a miss. This one's on Drew Holiday
Speaker 1: and by the way, guys, there's a lot of Drew
Speaker 1: Holiday in this set here, so like over the course
Speaker 1: of the rest of this game. So Drew's on the ball,
Speaker 1: He's guarding Duncan. Right, Tatum kind of digs, recovers back out,
Speaker 1: look at Drew. Watch Drew as soon as he passes.
Speaker 1: As Duncan passes the ball, Drew relaxes. Duncan's already sprinting
Speaker 1: back out to the three point line. Drew is still chilling.
Speaker 1: Drew still chilling. Now there's separation. Now it's a close
Speaker 1: out and Duncan beats him with a pump fake and
Speaker 1: that one actually misses. But that's a huge defensive breakdown.
Speaker 1: You lost connection to their best shooter. So on this one,
Speaker 1: Heywood high Smith is one of the best catch and
Speaker 1: shoot guys for Miami, and not just contested, but uncontested
Speaker 1: as well. He or not just uncontested, but contested as well.
Speaker 1: We're gonna get a guard guard action. So because both
Speaker 1: of these guys are guards, you kind of have to
Speaker 1: just switch this. But instead of switching it, they treat
Speaker 1: it like a traditional pick and roll. But either way,
Speaker 1: Howser has to make the rotation here. You have to
Speaker 1: rotate here because this is not BAM out of bio.
Speaker 1: You're not going to concede this shot. You have to
Speaker 1: chase high Smith off the line. They leave them wide open.
Speaker 1: That's a defensive breakdown. So again, are you guys seeing
Speaker 1: Boston make a bunch of really tough contested shots here yet,
Speaker 1: or are you seeing them make a bunch of wide
Speaker 1: open shots for good shooters by virtue of defensive breakdowns?
Speaker 1: It's not I don't view variants as a major factor
Speaker 1: at this point in the game. Here we go, Caleb
Speaker 1: Martin already made one, Kayleb Martin made a three. Howser's
Speaker 1: in pursuit. Okay, off the switch, pull back, dribble right,
Speaker 1: Harrow's pulling it back. Howser's still chasing back over. He's
Speaker 1: gonna get a good contest here. Derek White just digs
Speaker 1: down for no particular reason. And again we know Caleb
Speaker 1: Martin uncontested threes are going in at a high rate
Speaker 1: this season. Also, one other thing here, and this is
Speaker 1: a consistent theme. See this dynamic here. This is defending
Speaker 1: a two man game with three players, and that is
Speaker 1: going to be a consistent theme, especially when we get
Speaker 1: into the second half. They just too often were putting
Speaker 1: a third man into ball screens and leaving shooters open
Speaker 1: in the process. Turnover, we're out in transition, pick and pop.
Speaker 1: See that's the rotation. That's the rotation that I was
Speaker 1: just calling for on the on the Haywood high Smith play.
Speaker 1: So again you have a guard a guard guard kind
Speaker 1: of action. Yovic obviously is a power forward, but more
Speaker 1: or less a perimeter oriented player. Right, So you're getting
Speaker 1: a ball screen, so they're defending it the same way
Speaker 1: Horford did. Right. But notice Derek White makes the rotation
Speaker 1: the rotation that wasn't made on that last one. I
Speaker 1: had this one as a game play discipline one too,
Speaker 1: because Caleb's catching on the on the right corner and
Speaker 1: he's made a couple threes, but he's primarily a slasher.
Speaker 1: And you can tell this is game play and discipline
Speaker 1: from Houser because watch him close out to the baseline
Speaker 1: side right here to handle the rip through remove. See
Speaker 1: See how that's part of just understanding your personnel and
Speaker 1: knowing like Caleb loves that quick rip through to the baseline,
Speaker 1: especially in a rotation situation like this and you turned
Speaker 1: it into a late contest. I didn't have any problem
Speaker 1: with that. However, Caleb Martin has it going now, so
Speaker 1: maybe that should color some of the coverages the rest
Speaker 1: of the way. And also again, Caleb Martin got too easy,
Speaker 1: wide open catch and shoot threes before that shot. So
Speaker 1: if your view on that shot is like, man, Caleb
Speaker 1: Martin's making everything, it's like, well, he's a streaky shooter
Speaker 1: that you let get too clean, catch and shoot looks
Speaker 1: to get his rhythm. This one is about not a
Speaker 1: dunket or Derek White getting caught ball watching a little bit.
Speaker 1: So notice Derek White is on Harrow right now. We
Speaker 1: have this two man game over here. Porzingis is in drop. Okay,
Speaker 1: Porzingis is in drop and is capable of handling anything
Speaker 1: that Jovic does. Here, watch Derek White hesitate and lose
Speaker 1: sight of Tyler Harrow's See Derek White's helping here for
Speaker 1: no damn reason Porzingis is there. You even have other
Speaker 1: guys on the back line. Tyler Harrow is the biggest
Speaker 1: threat on the floor. Derek White loses him for a
Speaker 1: second and that buys that separation for Tyler Harrow. To
Speaker 1: break for free on the weak side. That's another defensive breakdown.
Speaker 1: It's a quality contest. Again, I still don't love this,
Speaker 1: like defending every ball screen with four players thing that
Speaker 1: to me is just dumb overhelp. But Tatum gets a
Speaker 1: good contest on it, at least a solid effort to
Speaker 1: get out there. Also, you defend the action four on two,
Speaker 1: but you still can't get the defensive rebound. Here we are,
Speaker 1: guys with Jylen Brown just hits a huge three, gives
Speaker 1: the Celtics the lead. All right, guys, we're ready to
Speaker 1: lock in, right, let's do this. Let's go on our
Speaker 1: run now. Oh wait, no one picked up Tyler Harrow.
Speaker 1: You're like, you're lucky that missed. But like guys, the
Speaker 1: vast majority of these attempts are defensive breakdowns, the vast
Speaker 1: majority of them this one. I put his game plan
Speaker 1: as acceptable. Within the game plan. Again, if you're with
Speaker 1: Tyler Harrow, you don't want to just blitz him or
Speaker 1: come out way too high, because then you're just gonna
Speaker 1: exist in rotation all nights. You kind of have to
Speaker 1: trust Derek White to offer rear view contests and Al
Speaker 1: Horford to kind of make him at least take the
Speaker 1: pull up jumper a little further out. And really all
Speaker 1: that happened there is Derek White bid on that jab
Speaker 1: step too much and gave up separate too much separation,
Speaker 1: and that that is a clean look for Tyler Harrow.
Speaker 1: But that's more just Derek White has to do a
Speaker 1: better job on the ball. No one's guarding Bam. We
Speaker 1: got a kickout pass here. This is Drew Holliday again.
Speaker 1: So watch watch as this action is taking place at
Speaker 1: the top of the key. Here, watch Drew. So Drew
Speaker 1: gets switched onto Yovich. We have our ball screen. We
Speaker 1: have a kick to Bam. Okay, Porzingis is there, He's
Speaker 1: not compromised. There's no problem there, and you trust Porzingis
Speaker 1: on an island against Bam. Drew Holliday is guarding a
Speaker 1: player who has already made two three pointers in this
Speaker 1: game and is just sitting at the block for no
Speaker 1: particular reason. Look at that. That's not good defense. This
Speaker 1: is just not This is not playoff effort. That's January
Speaker 1: regular season effort. Good pursuit over the top there, Watch
Speaker 1: Jalen Brown. So, Jalen Brown is guarding high mayhawkez Okay
Speaker 1: once again, we have a two man game. Two guys
Speaker 1: are on the ball. I understand BAM's rolling and someone
Speaker 1: needs to tag him, but you need to tag him
Speaker 1: with the low man, not one pass away. Jalen Brown
Speaker 1: instead is tagging one pass away Jimehawkez just relocates to
Speaker 1: the top. That's another huge defensive breakdown to leave a
Speaker 1: shooter open. You're very fortunate that that shot was missed.
Speaker 1: This one is bad on ball defense. You're gonna see
Speaker 1: a couple of these on harrow. So again it's a
Speaker 1: This is a stagger where you're leading with a guarde screen.
Speaker 1: This is that play that the Phoenix Suns run all
Speaker 1: the time, right, So like normally you want this guy
Speaker 1: to chase, but Boston's gonna switch the first screen, right,
Speaker 1: So now Tatum's on ball, but he's too passive and
Speaker 1: passive switching again. The difference between a passive switch and
Speaker 1: an aggressive switch is this. As that screen comes, look,
Speaker 1: Tatum's now on harrow, but he's not meeting him on
Speaker 1: the other side of the screen. Basically, if this has
Speaker 1: been communicated to be a switch, you basically need Drew
Speaker 1: to immediately switch on to Caleb Martin and you need
Speaker 1: Tatum to aggressively meet Harrow with physicality. Instead he doesn't.
Speaker 1: He's passive. Since he's passively switched, he's not in position
Speaker 1: to navigate the screen that allows Harrow to break free
Speaker 1: clean coming off the other side of the screen. That's
Speaker 1: a major defensive breakdown for yet another made three. Remember correctly,
Speaker 1: I think this one might be the same. Okay, so
Speaker 1: this is really good defense. I put this was the
Speaker 1: one I put down as a make a miss that
Speaker 1: went in, So the one for five on make a misses.
Speaker 1: This was Caleb Martin with his weird like Kobe kind
Speaker 1: of drifting rip through a move like you just have
Speaker 1: to live with Caleb Martin to taking that that set
Speaker 1: Caleb Martin streaky shooter, gains his confidence can make tough shots.
Speaker 1: So like, the reason that went in, in my opinion,
Speaker 1: is directly related to you giving him too clean catch
Speaker 1: and shoot looks to start the game and then him
Speaker 1: hitting a more contest one in the right corner after
Speaker 1: that airbalald contested three for Boston. I actually put this
Speaker 1: as a defensive breakdown to Tyler Harrow's red hot, red hot.
Speaker 1: Watch Jalen Brown relax here, watch him relax. See how
Speaker 1: is he not like immediately pressing up on harrow. This
Speaker 1: is I put this one as fortunate to have missed
Speaker 1: like that that he's a red hot shooter, best shooter
Speaker 1: on the floor from Miami, and you're kind of passively
Speaker 1: just letting him sit there comfortably and rise up. Now
Speaker 1: watch Jalen Brown. I'm just gonna put this. I'm gonna
Speaker 1: put this one in slow motion. Watch watch Jalen Brown
Speaker 1: jog to chase Tyler. So again, you're chasing a movement shooter.
Speaker 1: This needs to be lock and trail. You need to
Speaker 1: be contacting him and following him with contact. Watch Jalen
Speaker 1: Brown jog. That's just not good effort. That's a red
Speaker 1: hot shooter that you're jogging to chase around screens instead
Speaker 1: of physically aggressively pressuring him into whatever shot he wants
Speaker 1: to take. So this is an inverted ball screen. This
Speaker 1: is a difficult action to guard for the record, so
Speaker 1: we have inverted ball screen. Again, big guys don't know
Speaker 1: how to navigate screens. Guards typically don't understand how to
Speaker 1: run a drop or anything along those lines, so they
Speaker 1: end up switching it right. Then they immediately double Okay,
Speaker 1: but here's the problem. Haywood high Smith is over here
Speaker 1: on the right wing, and he's ready to relocate to
Speaker 1: the top. What are Porzingis and Derek White. They're just
Speaker 1: standing underneath the basket. They're not accomplishing anybody anything. They're
Speaker 1: not guarding anybody. There's already a double team on the ball.
Speaker 1: So there's no real point in like helping here. I
Speaker 1: understand you want to be in defensive rebound position, but like,
Speaker 1: neither guy's in a defensive stance. They're completely upright, and
Speaker 1: so of course there's just an easy swing swing to
Speaker 1: Haywood high Smith at the top of the key. It
Speaker 1: is so it is so appallingly bad the three point
Speaker 1: defense in this game. So like a dh O to
Speaker 1: Duncan is such an obvious call here, and watch how
Speaker 1: passive Tatum is in his on ball defense. You're fortunate
Speaker 1: that missed this one. I put as a game plan
Speaker 1: discipline like an acceptable within the game plan any sort
Speaker 1: of two man game like this with Duncan. You have
Speaker 1: to trust this guy to chase over the top and contest,
Speaker 1: and trust Awl to cut al Horford to contain both.
Speaker 1: You get a really good rear view contest from Howser
Speaker 1: and he makes it. So again Duncan actually missed the
Speaker 1: open one on the defensive breakdown, and then he made
Speaker 1: the one where you did your job. So obviously variance
Speaker 1: is a part of this. But again, if you look
Speaker 1: at the shot result in this game, what percentage of
Speaker 1: the shots have gone in when there's been a defensive
Speaker 1: breakdown versus one there's been quality defense within the game plan.
Speaker 1: Oh look, you played great defense and chase him off
Speaker 1: the line the entire possession and they didn't get a
Speaker 1: clean look and they missed. That was the fourth make
Speaker 1: them miss attempt of the game. Drew Holiday on the
Speaker 1: ball switch. Notice their attacking Howser. A lot of attacking
Speaker 1: Hawser in this game. But I didn't think it was
Speaker 1: his fault that things went the way they went. Drew
Speaker 1: Holliday again, watch Drew so Drew switches Drew's on Delon
Speaker 1: Right now, Delon Wright relocates once again, Houser is attached.
Speaker 1: Horford's in a drop. There is no reason to defend
Speaker 1: this action. Three on two, Drew Holliday gets sucked in
Speaker 1: for no particular reason. Al Horford is there. He's there
Speaker 1: and ready to help, even Tatum's in a better position
Speaker 1: to tag the roller. You're allowing an easy help or
Speaker 1: an easy kickout to the strong side corner for three.
Speaker 1: Now he's in a close out situation. He has to
Speaker 1: leave his feet. It's the exact same mistake he made
Speaker 1: on the Duncan Robinson three in the first half. Duncan
Speaker 1: just missed that one. Delon Wright does not miss this one.
Speaker 1: Drew Holliday was a major culprit in this one. Two
Speaker 1: on the ball that one again, that's good, that's good defense.
Speaker 1: Within the game plan. They're targeting Hawser again, Howser fights
Speaker 1: over the top and gets a rear view contest. He
Speaker 1: did his job. Like again, those contested Tyler Harrow pull
Speaker 1: up threes, they're not going to go in at nearly
Speaker 1: the same rate as those two that Jalen Brown gave up.
Speaker 1: Jalen and Jason Tatum gave up when they were just
Speaker 1: jogging around trying to chase him over the top of screens.
Speaker 1: So notice this is again game plan discipline from Howser
Speaker 1: was really good in this one. On Delon Wright was
Speaker 1: like zero point six points per pull up jump shot
Speaker 1: with Miami this season, so clearly the game plan was
Speaker 1: duck underneath the pick. He ducks under both picks and
Speaker 1: concedes that pull up three. That's a pull up three
Speaker 1: you're willing to give up obviously under the circumstances. Oh look,
Speaker 1: you had a really good contest on a screening action
Speaker 1: of Duncan Robinson and he missed. They're not making the
Speaker 1: super tough contested ones added even in the same stratosphere
Speaker 1: of percentage as they are all of these defensive breakdowns.
Speaker 1: This one is a botch switch between Drew Holliday and
Speaker 1: Jason Tatum. So again we have our three man action here, right.
Speaker 1: Our three man action is Harrow, high Smith and Bam
Speaker 1: with porzingis Tatum and Drew. So the main thing here
Speaker 1: is because it's effectively a double stagger, you want to
Speaker 1: defend it the same way you did some of those
Speaker 1: other double staggers we're talking about. As soon as this
Speaker 1: screen gets set gets set, you want Tatum to take Harrow.
Speaker 1: Tatum should be sprinting out to Harrow, and you want
Speaker 1: Drew to stay on high Smith. It needs to be communicated.
Speaker 1: It's clear that Tatum is running over to Harrow instead
Speaker 1: Drew goes over there with them. Now they're just randomly
Speaker 1: double teaming Tyler Harrow for no reason. Okay, it's very
Speaker 1: clear at this point, like right right here, Tatum should know,
Speaker 1: Oh shit, Drew's recovering. Okay, no, he no longer needs me.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna sprint back. But nope, neither of them do.
Speaker 1: They both stay on the ball, and then all Tyler
Speaker 1: Harrow has to do is just dribble off the screen
Speaker 1: this way and he hits Hayward high Smith wide open.
Speaker 1: That's a major defensive breakdown because your guards aren't communicating switches.
Speaker 1: Drew Holliday, Look at Drew Holiday. Now Tatum has to
Speaker 1: do a better job fighting over the screen. He just
Speaker 1: walked into it. But still, even then, if Harrow looks
Speaker 1: to push Downhill Porzingis is there and drop. What is
Speaker 1: Drew doing? He's not doing He's not accomplishing anything in help,
Speaker 1: and he's just leaving a shooter open, still defending the
Speaker 1: action three on two for no damn reason at all whatsoever.
Speaker 1: And Caleb Martin's wide open. Look at this man, what
Speaker 1: are they doing? What is Derek White doing? I just
Speaker 1: don't I just don't get it. I really really don't
Speaker 1: get it. These are all wide open looks, guys, high Smith.
Speaker 1: So that's got to be a switch, right, there's our switch.
Speaker 1: Here comes the ball screen. That needs to be another switch,
Speaker 1: And like, I don't I don't understand why that wasn't
Speaker 1: immediately switched the second ball screen. And Tatum's actually a
Speaker 1: little bit late closing out here, and it allows Tyler
Speaker 1: Harrow to get a decent look. But at least he
Speaker 1: got him to break his rhythm a little bit. And
Speaker 1: then this last one I think was a Caleb Mark
Speaker 1: or heimhak has shot. Let's see. But this one was
Speaker 1: a good look too, if I remember correctly. Yeah, just
Speaker 1: a random double team from Jalen Brown that left Hawk
Speaker 1: has wide open. He just happened to miss it. That
Speaker 1: was forty three. So again, guys, if we really dig
Speaker 1: into it, do you think just be honest with yourself?
Speaker 1: And I'm curious in the comment Celtics fans, if you
Speaker 1: think I'm being overly critical here, I want to hear it.
Speaker 1: Do you think the Celtics made Miami uncomfortable last night?
Speaker 1: Do you think the Celtics played Miami more into a
Speaker 1: lower quality shooting game, or do you think the Celtics
Speaker 1: let Miami get comfortable from the opening tip and never
Speaker 1: made a concerted effort to try to break their rhythm
Speaker 1: with multiple defensive efforts and making them uncomfortable at the
Speaker 1: three point line. Just be honest. I want to hear.
Speaker 1: I want to hear if you guys disagree with me.
Speaker 1: And again, like, we also know that there's a psychological
Speaker 1: element to this series. Jimmy Butler is talking shit on Instagram.
Speaker 1: We know Eric Spolstra is going to play into variance
Speaker 1: as much as possible. I would not be surprised if
Speaker 1: shoot a ton of threes was the game plan coming
Speaker 1: into the game, because we're not as talented and we
Speaker 1: need to find a way to try to close the gap.
Speaker 1: You know this is coming, you know this is how
Speaker 1: they're going to try to beat you. And I don't
Speaker 1: look again, I'm not changing my opinion on the Celtics
Speaker 1: at all. I still view them as a as the
Speaker 1: second best contender in the league with a legitimate shot
Speaker 1: to beat Denver if they were to get out of
Speaker 1: the West and they were to get out of the East.
Speaker 1: I still believe in this team, but last night was
Speaker 1: not a strong indicator of where their focus is at
Speaker 1: right now, and they're gonna have to sharpen that up
Speaker 1: or they're gonna fall into a hole against the team
Speaker 1: that they're better than, like in the Eastern Conference finals,
Speaker 1: or a team that they're relatively even with, if not
Speaker 1: a little bit worse than in Denver in the NBA Finals.
Speaker 1: Things need to get sharpened up before we get to
Speaker 1: that point. And again, when we talk about shot variants,
Speaker 1: I'm not saying it doesn't exist. I'm not saying it's
Speaker 1: not a part of a game. But that was pretty
Speaker 1: clear evidence that Boston played a defensive game that is
Speaker 1: likely to lead to a shooting barrage, and it did.
Speaker 1: There were a lot of clean looks in that game
Speaker 1: that Miami missed. And so again, like that's one of
Speaker 1: those things where it's so easy to be like, oh,
Speaker 1: they got one point six to two points per catch
Speaker 1: and shoot three in this game. That's kind of ridiculous,
Speaker 1: and it's like, yeah, you're you're not wrong in terms
Speaker 1: of that being a highly productive three point shooting game.
Speaker 1: But if you actually dig into the basketball, basketball is
Speaker 1: more art than science. If you actually dig in the basketball,
Speaker 1: those are really high quality shots that we're getting missed.
Speaker 1: All right, guys, That is all I have for Today
Speaker 1: is always as sincerely appreciate you guys for supporting the show.
Speaker 1: We're gonna be back tonight live on YouTube. Out to
Speaker 1: the final buzzer of Nuggets Lakers. I will see you guys.
Speaker 1: Then the volume