1 00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:02,920 Speaker 1: This is Dana Perkins and you're listening to Switched on 2 00:00:03,000 --> 00:00:06,240 Speaker 1: the BNF podcast. Those who are interested in reducing their 3 00:00:06,240 --> 00:00:09,320 Speaker 1: carbon footprint, they may have heard of meat free Mondays, 4 00:00:09,520 --> 00:00:13,360 Speaker 1: but what about dairy free Monday, Because today we're talking 5 00:00:13,520 --> 00:00:17,080 Speaker 1: about another heavy emitter, dairy cows, and whether or not 6 00:00:17,239 --> 00:00:20,119 Speaker 1: plant based milks might be able to provide a greener 7 00:00:20,160 --> 00:00:24,000 Speaker 1: alternative to this established industry. The dairy sector relies on 8 00:00:24,120 --> 00:00:27,880 Speaker 1: two hundred and seventy million cows globally to produce over 9 00:00:28,000 --> 00:00:30,800 Speaker 1: six hundred million tons of milk every year, and when 10 00:00:30,840 --> 00:00:34,640 Speaker 1: combined with livestock, their annual greenhouse gas emissions are five 11 00:00:34,680 --> 00:00:37,720 Speaker 1: point eight percent of the global total. When converted to 12 00:00:37,760 --> 00:00:40,840 Speaker 1: CO two equivalents, this comes to about two point nine 13 00:00:40,960 --> 00:00:45,240 Speaker 1: gigatons of CO two emissions. The obvious alternative to dairy 14 00:00:45,400 --> 00:00:48,080 Speaker 1: might be plant based milks, a drink that goes back 15 00:00:48,200 --> 00:00:50,839 Speaker 1: centuries in some parts of the world, but in Western 16 00:00:50,840 --> 00:00:54,560 Speaker 1: culture it's only recently become a phenomenon. So just how 17 00:00:54,640 --> 00:00:57,760 Speaker 1: green are plant based milk alternatives and what options are 18 00:00:57,760 --> 00:01:00,640 Speaker 1: there out there? How realistic are they real as an 19 00:01:00,680 --> 00:01:04,240 Speaker 1: alternative to dairy. To find out more in today's episode, 20 00:01:04,280 --> 00:01:07,800 Speaker 1: I Speak with Sara Raza, a technology and innovations analyst 21 00:01:07,840 --> 00:01:10,399 Speaker 1: at B and EF based in New York. Together, we 22 00:01:10,520 --> 00:01:14,080 Speaker 1: discuss the varieties of different plant based alternatives and their 23 00:01:14,080 --> 00:01:18,200 Speaker 1: benefits as well as their drawbacks, including their ecological footprint 24 00:01:18,240 --> 00:01:21,360 Speaker 1: and water use. We also discuss the businesses behind the 25 00:01:21,400 --> 00:01:24,560 Speaker 1: sector and some of the major companies invested in this space, 26 00:01:24,959 --> 00:01:27,520 Speaker 1: as well as the politics behind the milk industry in 27 00:01:27,560 --> 00:01:31,160 Speaker 1: the United States in particular, and how the USDA treats 28 00:01:31,280 --> 00:01:35,319 Speaker 1: dairy and plant based milks very differently. As always, if 29 00:01:35,319 --> 00:01:38,200 Speaker 1: you like this podcast, make sure to subscribe and you'll 30 00:01:38,240 --> 00:01:41,399 Speaker 1: receive an update on future episodes as they're published. And 31 00:01:41,440 --> 00:01:44,119 Speaker 1: if you give us a review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify, 32 00:01:44,240 --> 00:01:47,160 Speaker 1: it'll make us more discoverable by others. But right now, 33 00:01:47,280 --> 00:01:50,720 Speaker 1: let's jump into our conversation about the dairy industry and 34 00:01:50,800 --> 00:02:03,720 Speaker 1: its alternatives with Sara. Sara, thank you so much for 35 00:02:03,760 --> 00:02:04,880 Speaker 1: coming back to the show today. 36 00:02:05,240 --> 00:02:06,480 Speaker 2: Thank you for having me again. 37 00:02:06,880 --> 00:02:09,840 Speaker 1: So we're here today to talk about dairy milk and 38 00:02:09,880 --> 00:02:12,600 Speaker 1: milk alternatives. And I certainly am a lover of cheese, 39 00:02:12,639 --> 00:02:14,560 Speaker 1: but I am also a lover of all of the 40 00:02:14,600 --> 00:02:17,880 Speaker 1: different dairy milks. I've probably tried everyone that has come 41 00:02:17,919 --> 00:02:20,320 Speaker 1: across my cup of coffee at one point or another. 42 00:02:20,480 --> 00:02:22,880 Speaker 1: But as we get into this, I hoped you could 43 00:02:23,200 --> 00:02:26,560 Speaker 1: really frame, I guess the problem, which is really the 44 00:02:26,560 --> 00:02:29,560 Speaker 1: emissions associated with dairy milk when we think about this 45 00:02:29,639 --> 00:02:33,600 Speaker 1: from a climate standpoint. So what is the problem and 46 00:02:33,840 --> 00:02:36,919 Speaker 1: where is dairy milk sit within emissions? 47 00:02:37,280 --> 00:02:38,320 Speaker 2: Well, that's a great question. 48 00:02:38,440 --> 00:02:42,120 Speaker 3: So I think often dairy kind of gets ignored as a. 49 00:02:42,120 --> 00:02:44,360 Speaker 2: Huge source of emissions globally. 50 00:02:44,520 --> 00:02:48,120 Speaker 3: The dairy industry relies on a ground two hundred and 51 00:02:48,120 --> 00:02:52,280 Speaker 3: seventy million cows to produce over six hundred million tons 52 00:02:52,280 --> 00:02:56,320 Speaker 3: of milk annually. Obviously, all of this occupies seven percent 53 00:02:56,480 --> 00:02:59,480 Speaker 3: of the world's land. And in terms of emissions, I mean, 54 00:02:59,720 --> 00:03:02,799 Speaker 3: we can go into comparing emissions between dairy and other 55 00:03:02,840 --> 00:03:07,320 Speaker 3: plant based alternatives, but just as a little summary statistic, 56 00:03:07,680 --> 00:03:12,200 Speaker 3: dairy milk is often three times or more emissions intensive 57 00:03:12,280 --> 00:03:14,240 Speaker 3: than all plant based alternatives. 58 00:03:14,720 --> 00:03:17,640 Speaker 1: Can you go into some detail around on a farm, 59 00:03:18,000 --> 00:03:21,200 Speaker 1: how those emissions break down and which activities on a 60 00:03:21,240 --> 00:03:24,880 Speaker 1: farm really comprise the different parts of that emissions pie 61 00:03:25,000 --> 00:03:25,560 Speaker 1: for this. 62 00:03:25,560 --> 00:03:29,200 Speaker 3: Group, absolutely, Yeah, So it is pretty difficult to assign 63 00:03:29,400 --> 00:03:32,720 Speaker 3: emissions of a single dairy cow to the milk product 64 00:03:32,840 --> 00:03:35,680 Speaker 3: in the life cycle of a farm, because as you know, 65 00:03:36,120 --> 00:03:39,440 Speaker 3: on a farm, many cows are also used for beef products. 66 00:03:39,640 --> 00:03:43,200 Speaker 3: But BENAF has come up with an estimate of greenhouse 67 00:03:43,200 --> 00:03:45,760 Speaker 3: gas emissions on a US dairy farm, and we've come 68 00:03:45,840 --> 00:03:50,120 Speaker 3: up with the total emissions coming from methane being about 69 00:03:50,320 --> 00:03:55,160 Speaker 3: six thousand, four hundred kilograms of CO two equivalents, and 70 00:03:55,200 --> 00:03:59,080 Speaker 3: that methane comes largely from the animal as you know 71 00:03:59,280 --> 00:04:04,120 Speaker 3: more popularly as cow fats, and around twenty to thirty 72 00:04:04,120 --> 00:04:07,960 Speaker 3: percent of that from manure storage. Nitrous oxide is actually 73 00:04:08,000 --> 00:04:11,080 Speaker 3: another concern which I think people really overlook and have 74 00:04:11,200 --> 00:04:14,400 Speaker 3: no idea that that's a really really potent gas coming 75 00:04:14,480 --> 00:04:17,960 Speaker 3: from dairy farms across the world. But in terms of nitrosoxide, 76 00:04:17,960 --> 00:04:21,599 Speaker 3: that's around one thousand, three hundred kilograms of CO two equivalent. 77 00:04:21,680 --> 00:04:24,640 Speaker 3: And these statistics, by the way, are per cow, So 78 00:04:25,080 --> 00:04:29,000 Speaker 3: the lot of emissions per cow for methane nitrosoxide, and 79 00:04:29,040 --> 00:04:31,479 Speaker 3: then you've got a little CO two and some other 80 00:04:31,560 --> 00:04:33,560 Speaker 3: other indirect emissions from the soil. 81 00:04:33,640 --> 00:04:36,000 Speaker 1: And on a per cow basis, But are these larger 82 00:04:36,040 --> 00:04:38,880 Speaker 1: small operations because one of the things that we certainly 83 00:04:38,920 --> 00:04:42,159 Speaker 1: see across other parts of plant based agricultures. These can 84 00:04:42,400 --> 00:04:44,720 Speaker 1: differ from different parts of the world in terms of 85 00:04:44,800 --> 00:04:47,960 Speaker 1: whether or not they're highly fragmented in small farmers or 86 00:04:48,080 --> 00:04:53,719 Speaker 1: really large, industrial grade operations. Where do most of the 87 00:04:53,760 --> 00:04:56,240 Speaker 1: cow and dairy farms. Where do they fall? Are they smaller? 88 00:04:56,320 --> 00:04:56,919 Speaker 2: They large? 89 00:04:57,160 --> 00:04:59,119 Speaker 3: Most of the cow and dairy farms in the US 90 00:04:59,200 --> 00:05:02,880 Speaker 3: are extreme large operations. If you choose somewhere like a 91 00:05:02,960 --> 00:05:06,640 Speaker 3: New Zealand dairy farm there, emissions naturally would be a 92 00:05:06,640 --> 00:05:09,880 Speaker 3: lot lower, just because they're not as water intensive, using 93 00:05:10,000 --> 00:05:12,760 Speaker 3: as many facilities, using as much energy on the farm. 94 00:05:12,960 --> 00:05:15,360 Speaker 3: A lot of those are also free range farms and 95 00:05:15,600 --> 00:05:17,680 Speaker 3: have a lot of cattle grazing out in the open, 96 00:05:17,720 --> 00:05:20,760 Speaker 3: with a lot more land. We're obviously very land constrained 97 00:05:20,800 --> 00:05:23,719 Speaker 3: in the US here, so it's a lot tighter, a 98 00:05:23,720 --> 00:05:25,200 Speaker 3: lot more factory farming. 99 00:05:25,800 --> 00:05:29,679 Speaker 1: One of the considerations around plant based alternatives is also 100 00:05:30,040 --> 00:05:32,680 Speaker 1: water usage. But let's talk about a little of the 101 00:05:32,839 --> 00:05:35,080 Speaker 1: water usage associated with dairy. 102 00:05:35,160 --> 00:05:40,080 Speaker 3: Freshwater use is extremely extremely high for dairy milk, and 103 00:05:40,200 --> 00:05:43,520 Speaker 3: is actually mainly a result of actually producing the feed 104 00:05:43,600 --> 00:05:47,560 Speaker 3: for the cattle, something that's obviously avoided when producing plant 105 00:05:47,560 --> 00:05:49,920 Speaker 3: based alternatives, And a way I like to view it 106 00:05:50,000 --> 00:05:53,120 Speaker 3: in my head is if you imagine, when you're producing 107 00:05:53,400 --> 00:05:57,360 Speaker 3: dairy milk, you go crop through cow to a glass 108 00:05:57,360 --> 00:06:00,000 Speaker 3: of milk, whereas when you go for plant based alternative, 109 00:06:00,279 --> 00:06:02,920 Speaker 3: it's just crop to a glass of milk. So you're 110 00:06:02,960 --> 00:06:07,040 Speaker 3: avoiding this entire fresh water use on an entire farm, 111 00:06:07,279 --> 00:06:12,440 Speaker 3: producing feed for cattle, consuming cattle, cleaning dairy operations, cooling 112 00:06:12,440 --> 00:06:15,799 Speaker 3: of facilities, sanitation, waste disposal systems. 113 00:06:15,920 --> 00:06:16,839 Speaker 2: This is all. 114 00:06:16,680 --> 00:06:20,640 Speaker 3: Contributing to high water consumption. And in terms of comparing 115 00:06:20,839 --> 00:06:24,560 Speaker 3: this water use between dairy and alternatives, around six hundred 116 00:06:24,600 --> 00:06:28,600 Speaker 3: and thirty liters of water is used per liter of 117 00:06:28,600 --> 00:06:32,039 Speaker 3: milk produced, compared to around I don't know, let's take 118 00:06:32,080 --> 00:06:35,279 Speaker 3: soy milk of twenty eight liters for each liter of 119 00:06:35,360 --> 00:06:36,240 Speaker 3: soy produced. 120 00:06:36,680 --> 00:06:38,920 Speaker 1: Well, actually, so then that's the perfect segue to get 121 00:06:38,920 --> 00:06:42,280 Speaker 1: into some of these plant based alternatives. Now, we'll talk 122 00:06:42,279 --> 00:06:44,640 Speaker 1: about consumer adoption a little bit later in the show, 123 00:06:44,720 --> 00:06:47,880 Speaker 1: because certainly there is a place in many people's lives 124 00:06:47,920 --> 00:06:51,240 Speaker 1: for plant based alternatives, not from an emission standpoint, but 125 00:06:51,360 --> 00:06:53,880 Speaker 1: just because of consumer preference. But let's really break it 126 00:06:53,920 --> 00:06:56,520 Speaker 1: down in terms of what are the benefits on a 127 00:06:56,680 --> 00:06:59,640 Speaker 1: climate standpoint, so soy, you brought that one up already, 128 00:07:00,080 --> 00:07:02,479 Speaker 1: let's go into that. What are I guess, maybe the 129 00:07:02,480 --> 00:07:05,240 Speaker 1: benefits when you compare it from an emissions, land use, 130 00:07:05,279 --> 00:07:08,159 Speaker 1: water standpoint. Give me the lowdown on where soy fits 131 00:07:08,160 --> 00:07:08,720 Speaker 1: in this space. 132 00:07:09,120 --> 00:07:12,760 Speaker 3: So soy was actually the most popular milk once upon 133 00:07:12,800 --> 00:07:16,280 Speaker 3: a time. Recently that has been taken over by oat 134 00:07:16,440 --> 00:07:19,040 Speaker 3: and almond milk and kind of some of the newer entrants, 135 00:07:19,320 --> 00:07:23,480 Speaker 3: but soy still is a staple, especially across Asia and 136 00:07:23,560 --> 00:07:28,720 Speaker 3: Southeast Asia where that is the main primary alternative milk consumed. 137 00:07:28,880 --> 00:07:33,880 Speaker 3: So in terms of emissions, soy milk actually produces less 138 00:07:33,920 --> 00:07:37,680 Speaker 3: than one kilogram of CO two equivalent per liter of 139 00:07:37,720 --> 00:07:41,520 Speaker 3: soy milk produced. And just to put that into perspective 140 00:07:41,760 --> 00:07:45,640 Speaker 3: for a dairy milk lita, that's around three point two. 141 00:07:46,080 --> 00:07:49,760 Speaker 3: So that's significantly less than dairy milk. And again I 142 00:07:49,880 --> 00:07:54,600 Speaker 3: mentioned for fresh water use. Again it's actually the least 143 00:07:54,680 --> 00:07:57,760 Speaker 3: water intensive plant based milk out there. How I like 144 00:07:57,800 --> 00:07:59,760 Speaker 3: to view it for each of the plant based alternatives 145 00:07:59,800 --> 00:08:03,160 Speaker 3: is it's really a toss up between how much land 146 00:08:03,600 --> 00:08:07,600 Speaker 3: actually producing that crop takes up, how much fresh woolter 147 00:08:07,760 --> 00:08:11,280 Speaker 3: use you'll using and the emissions intensity. I get this 148 00:08:11,360 --> 00:08:14,120 Speaker 3: question a lot of which milk is the best. The 149 00:08:14,200 --> 00:08:18,080 Speaker 3: answer is, there isn't actually one milk that prevails overall. 150 00:08:18,520 --> 00:08:21,920 Speaker 3: Like you're asking about soy, which yes, is great in 151 00:08:22,040 --> 00:08:24,920 Speaker 3: terms of fresh wool to use, but has slightly higher 152 00:08:24,960 --> 00:08:26,560 Speaker 3: emissions than some of the other milks. 153 00:08:26,960 --> 00:08:29,120 Speaker 1: So there are trade offs when it comes to I 154 00:08:29,160 --> 00:08:31,800 Speaker 1: assume also nutritional benefit for these things, and you have 155 00:08:31,880 --> 00:08:35,080 Speaker 1: to think about what it is that you're looking to optimize. Now, 156 00:08:35,200 --> 00:08:38,680 Speaker 1: So we're using this term soy milk. Are we talking 157 00:08:38,679 --> 00:08:41,200 Speaker 1: about it in its liquid form? Or is this actually 158 00:08:41,360 --> 00:08:44,960 Speaker 1: a term that we're using to account for all generally 159 00:08:45,360 --> 00:08:49,679 Speaker 1: soy derivative products that would therefore replace maybe cheese and 160 00:08:49,880 --> 00:08:52,640 Speaker 1: what we'd largely refer to as the dairy industry, or 161 00:08:52,800 --> 00:08:56,920 Speaker 1: we very specifically talking about in the liquid How I 162 00:08:56,960 --> 00:08:58,199 Speaker 1: would think of milk. 163 00:08:57,960 --> 00:09:00,439 Speaker 2: Form M Yeah, no, that's a great question. 164 00:09:00,520 --> 00:09:03,440 Speaker 3: So when we talk about milks, we are talking about 165 00:09:03,480 --> 00:09:06,719 Speaker 3: the actual grinding of the nut or the legome such 166 00:09:06,760 --> 00:09:11,840 Speaker 3: as soy, and changing that into a milk alternative, which 167 00:09:11,880 --> 00:09:15,440 Speaker 3: basically just means mixing that with water a bunch of 168 00:09:15,480 --> 00:09:19,800 Speaker 3: other nutrients to produce this liquid that is similar to milk, 169 00:09:19,960 --> 00:09:22,920 Speaker 3: which is why I actually prefer the term plant based alternative. 170 00:09:23,080 --> 00:09:25,080 Speaker 3: I think is a little bit clearer than saying oat 171 00:09:25,080 --> 00:09:27,960 Speaker 3: milk or soy milk, because obviously it's not milk. But 172 00:09:28,000 --> 00:09:30,679 Speaker 3: then when we're talking about cheese and ice cream and 173 00:09:30,720 --> 00:09:33,880 Speaker 3: even as of recently, chocolate and all these other products, 174 00:09:34,000 --> 00:09:37,280 Speaker 3: it's easier, I think, in those situations to directly refer 175 00:09:37,400 --> 00:09:40,560 Speaker 3: to the products such as almond based cheese or oat 176 00:09:40,600 --> 00:09:41,880 Speaker 3: based ice cream. 177 00:09:41,920 --> 00:09:44,480 Speaker 1: Right because oftentimes, you know, I think of soy, and 178 00:09:44,480 --> 00:09:47,000 Speaker 1: I think about the fact that it's an alternative sometimes 179 00:09:47,080 --> 00:09:49,760 Speaker 1: to the meat side of things, as a sort of 180 00:09:50,080 --> 00:09:54,240 Speaker 1: harder but still wiggly protein that it can be inserted 181 00:09:54,280 --> 00:09:57,000 Speaker 1: into certain meals. So we're decidedly not talking about that. 182 00:09:57,040 --> 00:09:58,839 Speaker 1: We're talking about these dairy alternatives. 183 00:09:59,040 --> 00:10:02,520 Speaker 3: And soy is actually very very popular for meat alternatives. 184 00:10:02,520 --> 00:10:05,440 Speaker 3: It's actually a base of most plant based protein in 185 00:10:05,520 --> 00:10:07,560 Speaker 3: terms of meat. But what's funny is I feel like 186 00:10:07,600 --> 00:10:10,120 Speaker 3: the dairy industry does not get the same recognition as 187 00:10:10,160 --> 00:10:10,960 Speaker 3: the meat industry. 188 00:10:11,400 --> 00:10:13,760 Speaker 1: Well, and you had mentioned that soy is extremely popular 189 00:10:13,840 --> 00:10:16,400 Speaker 1: in Asia, and I'm thinking of another thing that is 190 00:10:16,440 --> 00:10:19,280 Speaker 1: consumed in mass in Asia, which is rice definitely a 191 00:10:19,320 --> 00:10:22,880 Speaker 1: staple of the diet, and I'm wondering how rice milk 192 00:10:22,960 --> 00:10:25,319 Speaker 1: then compares, in particular in that market. 193 00:10:25,600 --> 00:10:29,640 Speaker 3: In Southeast Asia, rice milk is not popular at all. 194 00:10:29,800 --> 00:10:33,840 Speaker 1: And Southeast Asia being the largest producer of rice anywhere 195 00:10:33,840 --> 00:10:34,720 Speaker 1: in the world. 196 00:10:34,679 --> 00:10:37,760 Speaker 3: Exactly, which is so ironic, most of that rice is 197 00:10:37,800 --> 00:10:40,559 Speaker 3: actually exported out to other countries and in terms of 198 00:10:40,600 --> 00:10:45,080 Speaker 3: actually their own consumption in Asia because of lactose intolerance 199 00:10:45,240 --> 00:10:49,120 Speaker 3: being a really popular issue across most of the continent 200 00:10:49,160 --> 00:10:52,520 Speaker 3: of Asia over the years, soy before the times of 201 00:10:52,880 --> 00:10:55,880 Speaker 3: the Western world deciding oh, this is a great alternative 202 00:10:55,920 --> 00:10:58,000 Speaker 3: to plant based, this is a great alternative to milk, 203 00:10:58,040 --> 00:11:00,440 Speaker 3: This is a great alternative to meat. Asia as an 204 00:11:00,559 --> 00:11:04,520 Speaker 3: entire continent has been farming and producing soy based desserts, 205 00:11:04,559 --> 00:11:08,319 Speaker 3: soy based milk, soy based foods for a very long time. 206 00:11:08,559 --> 00:11:10,920 Speaker 3: I mean even just take Tofu for example, that's a 207 00:11:10,960 --> 00:11:15,120 Speaker 3: soybean based food ingredient which is very popular. So no, 208 00:11:15,280 --> 00:11:18,760 Speaker 3: rice milk is not widely consumed across Southeast Asia. It's 209 00:11:18,840 --> 00:11:22,079 Speaker 3: really soy milk. But rice milk actually has a lot 210 00:11:22,120 --> 00:11:24,520 Speaker 3: of the same benefits as soy. I would say the 211 00:11:24,559 --> 00:11:27,280 Speaker 3: only disadvantage to rice milk over soy milk is that 212 00:11:27,520 --> 00:11:30,920 Speaker 3: rice milk is one of the most water intensive milks, 213 00:11:31,080 --> 00:11:33,559 Speaker 3: purely because a lot of that rice is grown in 214 00:11:33,920 --> 00:11:35,440 Speaker 3: rice paddies needing water. 215 00:11:35,920 --> 00:11:39,480 Speaker 1: So, since we're looking at these plant based alternatives in 216 00:11:39,559 --> 00:11:43,280 Speaker 1: terms of emissions, water, and then also land use, which 217 00:11:43,320 --> 00:11:46,200 Speaker 1: we haven't really gotten into across those three things. If 218 00:11:46,240 --> 00:11:49,679 Speaker 1: you're just comparing soy and rice to one another as 219 00:11:49,760 --> 00:11:53,280 Speaker 1: plant based alternatives in this dairy category, how do they 220 00:11:53,280 --> 00:11:54,160 Speaker 1: compare to one another? 221 00:11:54,559 --> 00:11:58,600 Speaker 3: So, across all plant based milk alternatives, rice milk is 222 00:11:58,640 --> 00:12:02,240 Speaker 3: the most emissions intense of milk, with around one point 223 00:12:02,240 --> 00:12:05,920 Speaker 3: two kilograms of CO two equivalent emitted per liter of 224 00:12:05,960 --> 00:12:09,240 Speaker 3: milk produced. While it is plant based, so it still 225 00:12:09,280 --> 00:12:13,080 Speaker 3: avoids the enteric fermentation that's associated with cattle rearing. But 226 00:12:13,240 --> 00:12:16,560 Speaker 3: rice must be grown in standing water, which provides a 227 00:12:16,600 --> 00:12:20,360 Speaker 3: breeding ground for methane producing bacteria, which is why its 228 00:12:20,400 --> 00:12:24,200 Speaker 3: emissions are so high, which compared to soy that's just 229 00:12:24,320 --> 00:12:27,000 Speaker 3: not present. SOI has one of the lowest emissions actually 230 00:12:27,080 --> 00:12:29,880 Speaker 3: and is seventeen percent less than rice based milk in 231 00:12:29,960 --> 00:12:34,000 Speaker 3: terms of water. Again, rice milk is significantly worse than 232 00:12:34,040 --> 00:12:36,959 Speaker 3: soy milk, producing around two hundred and seventy liters per 233 00:12:37,040 --> 00:12:39,920 Speaker 3: liter of milk produced soy at you know, a very 234 00:12:39,960 --> 00:12:42,680 Speaker 3: tiny twenty eight liters. Again due to what I just 235 00:12:42,679 --> 00:12:46,359 Speaker 3: said about being grown in standing water, usually in rice paddies, 236 00:12:46,520 --> 00:12:48,880 Speaker 3: and a lot of water is actually needed then to 237 00:12:48,920 --> 00:12:51,600 Speaker 3: produce the milk as the crop needs more water. In 238 00:12:51,679 --> 00:12:52,840 Speaker 3: terms of land uses a bit. 239 00:12:52,760 --> 00:12:53,720 Speaker 2: Of a different situation. 240 00:12:54,040 --> 00:12:58,120 Speaker 3: They're very equal with soy milk, just using a little 241 00:12:58,120 --> 00:13:00,840 Speaker 3: bit more land than rice. And the main reason for 242 00:13:00,920 --> 00:13:03,600 Speaker 3: that is soy and oat milks. I kind of group 243 00:13:03,720 --> 00:13:06,559 Speaker 3: those two together quite often because the crop has grown 244 00:13:06,559 --> 00:13:09,640 Speaker 3: in a very similar way. It's grown across monoculture, which 245 00:13:09,679 --> 00:13:13,200 Speaker 3: is kind of large areas of forest needed to grow 246 00:13:13,240 --> 00:13:16,079 Speaker 3: this crop on flat land, which obviously takes up a 247 00:13:16,120 --> 00:13:18,480 Speaker 3: lot more land than a vertical standing plant. 248 00:13:18,600 --> 00:13:22,640 Speaker 1: But surely the monoculture problem could be solved if the 249 00:13:22,679 --> 00:13:25,680 Speaker 1: farming practices followed it so the way that it currently stands. 250 00:13:25,679 --> 00:13:27,640 Speaker 1: And of course we have to talk about what's actually 251 00:13:27,720 --> 00:13:30,440 Speaker 1: happening in the market right now, but there are opportunities 252 00:13:30,480 --> 00:13:34,000 Speaker 1: within this space to innovate further and to bring down 253 00:13:34,160 --> 00:13:36,680 Speaker 1: some of the negative drawbacks of some of these I 254 00:13:36,720 --> 00:13:39,480 Speaker 1: guess just as there are within dairy, because there's certainly 255 00:13:39,720 --> 00:13:42,760 Speaker 1: advancements being made in terms of food additives for cows. 256 00:13:42,800 --> 00:13:46,719 Speaker 1: So this whole conversation could and hopefully will change as 257 00:13:46,760 --> 00:13:49,560 Speaker 1: we go into the future in terms of technology development. 258 00:13:49,800 --> 00:13:53,000 Speaker 3: Yeah, definitely. I mean, we have companies now innovating in 259 00:13:53,080 --> 00:13:57,360 Speaker 3: pea milk. We have companies innovating in something called precision fermentation, 260 00:13:57,880 --> 00:14:01,640 Speaker 3: which is actually producing real day milk but from casin 261 00:14:01,679 --> 00:14:05,400 Speaker 3: and way powder, so actually doesn't involve cattle but takes 262 00:14:05,400 --> 00:14:08,320 Speaker 3: the protein. And so there are a lot of innovations. 263 00:14:08,360 --> 00:14:11,920 Speaker 3: But right now, almond milk actually prevails in the US 264 00:14:12,040 --> 00:14:13,680 Speaker 3: as the most popular milk. 265 00:14:14,040 --> 00:14:16,920 Speaker 1: So almond milk, since it is the most popular, we've 266 00:14:16,920 --> 00:14:19,400 Speaker 1: been through story, We've been through rice, let's talk about 267 00:14:19,440 --> 00:14:22,640 Speaker 1: almond milk. It's the lowest from an emission standpoint, but 268 00:14:22,720 --> 00:14:26,800 Speaker 1: highest from a water usage standpoint and hugely popular. So 269 00:14:27,080 --> 00:14:31,240 Speaker 1: not just from a overview of what it is from 270 00:14:31,360 --> 00:14:34,680 Speaker 1: a climate standpoint, let's talk about the market opportunity and adoption. 271 00:14:34,960 --> 00:14:37,520 Speaker 1: How much money is flowing into this space and how 272 00:14:37,600 --> 00:14:38,640 Speaker 1: popular is it really. 273 00:14:38,880 --> 00:14:41,160 Speaker 3: We have in the note a chot that shows the 274 00:14:41,160 --> 00:14:44,880 Speaker 3: annual sales of plant based milk, and all together, plant 275 00:14:44,880 --> 00:14:48,000 Speaker 3: based milk sales between twenty seventeen and twenty twenty two 276 00:14:48,080 --> 00:14:51,120 Speaker 3: has reached twelve billion US dollars in the US, which 277 00:14:51,200 --> 00:14:54,080 Speaker 3: is a crazy amount of money, and most of that 278 00:14:54,160 --> 00:14:57,920 Speaker 3: money has actually gone to almond milk, with sales of 279 00:14:57,920 --> 00:15:00,480 Speaker 3: almond milk just lost year in twenty two twenty two 280 00:15:01,000 --> 00:15:04,800 Speaker 3: reaching one point five billion in the US. And some 281 00:15:04,840 --> 00:15:07,600 Speaker 3: of those key players in the market, you definitely have 282 00:15:07,680 --> 00:15:08,840 Speaker 3: heard some of those names. 283 00:15:08,960 --> 00:15:12,280 Speaker 2: We have companies like Danon who. 284 00:15:11,960 --> 00:15:14,960 Speaker 3: Actually own some of the brands that a lot of 285 00:15:14,960 --> 00:15:17,880 Speaker 3: people drink that are probably not even aware that Danon 286 00:15:17,960 --> 00:15:19,640 Speaker 3: owns some of those brands. 287 00:15:19,240 --> 00:15:21,880 Speaker 2: Such as Silk altpro So Delicious. 288 00:15:22,000 --> 00:15:25,160 Speaker 3: I mean, Silk is the most popular almond milk brand 289 00:15:25,240 --> 00:15:27,640 Speaker 3: owned by Danon. And there are a ton of new 290 00:15:27,680 --> 00:15:30,160 Speaker 3: companies entering this space as well as ones that you 291 00:15:30,280 --> 00:15:34,600 Speaker 3: know like Ala, Chobani, General Mills who own a lot 292 00:15:34,640 --> 00:15:35,760 Speaker 3: of these smaller companies. 293 00:15:36,160 --> 00:15:38,040 Speaker 1: Gosh, I know so many of these and I have 294 00:15:38,280 --> 00:15:40,760 Speaker 1: at various points in time eaten most of them. 295 00:15:40,880 --> 00:15:41,720 Speaker 2: So there we go. 296 00:15:42,000 --> 00:15:44,800 Speaker 1: But when we talk about the water intensity with almond 297 00:15:44,800 --> 00:15:47,520 Speaker 1: milk specifically, and you referred to the note, and I 298 00:15:47,640 --> 00:15:50,040 Speaker 1: know that a picture is worth a thousand words, but 299 00:15:50,080 --> 00:15:53,040 Speaker 1: we are an inherently audio format, so we are going 300 00:15:53,080 --> 00:15:56,040 Speaker 1: to stick on trying to explain all of these rankings 301 00:15:56,080 --> 00:15:58,120 Speaker 1: to all of you in this way. It takes five 302 00:15:58,200 --> 00:16:01,640 Speaker 1: years of water to grow single almond. How does that 303 00:16:01,720 --> 00:16:06,680 Speaker 1: then translate into, like, for like, the same amount of 304 00:16:06,760 --> 00:16:10,640 Speaker 1: a lid of almond milk. So you'd mentioned earlier around 305 00:16:10,640 --> 00:16:13,280 Speaker 1: six hundred and thirty liters of water to create one 306 00:16:13,360 --> 00:16:17,560 Speaker 1: liter of dairy milk, how many liters of water does 307 00:16:17,600 --> 00:16:20,280 Speaker 1: it take to make one lid of almond milk? 308 00:16:20,800 --> 00:16:24,280 Speaker 3: Almond milk is the most water intensive milk of all 309 00:16:24,320 --> 00:16:27,320 Speaker 3: of them, and compared to that six hundred and thirty figure, 310 00:16:27,440 --> 00:16:30,560 Speaker 3: almond milk is around three hundred and seventy liters of 311 00:16:30,600 --> 00:16:33,480 Speaker 3: water to produce one liter of milk. And this high 312 00:16:33,600 --> 00:16:36,720 Speaker 3: level of water consumption is a huge challenge the almond 313 00:16:36,720 --> 00:16:40,360 Speaker 3: production today because obviously eighty percent of the world's almonds 314 00:16:40,360 --> 00:16:43,160 Speaker 3: are produced in California, which I think everyone knows has 315 00:16:43,200 --> 00:16:47,760 Speaker 3: been under a drought emergency proclamation until very recently, and 316 00:16:47,840 --> 00:16:50,480 Speaker 3: twenty twenty one was actually the second driest year on 317 00:16:50,560 --> 00:16:53,880 Speaker 3: record due to extreme heat and lack of rain and 318 00:16:54,160 --> 00:16:57,800 Speaker 3: As of now, only fifteen percent of California remains in drought, 319 00:16:57,840 --> 00:17:01,640 Speaker 3: which is a really positive thing for producing almonds. However, 320 00:17:01,680 --> 00:17:04,400 Speaker 3: this is still a huge issue in producing almond milk 321 00:17:04,400 --> 00:17:06,720 Speaker 3: that it needs this huge quantity of freshwater. 322 00:17:07,040 --> 00:17:10,440 Speaker 1: And this really isn't taking into consideration the emissions associated 323 00:17:10,480 --> 00:17:12,800 Speaker 1: with shipping, is it, Because when you think about dairy, 324 00:17:13,000 --> 00:17:16,640 Speaker 1: it's quite locally produced near where you live. Where if 325 00:17:16,880 --> 00:17:20,560 Speaker 1: we have so much of the supply of almond milk 326 00:17:20,640 --> 00:17:23,879 Speaker 1: being produced in one state, in part of a fairly 327 00:17:23,960 --> 00:17:26,879 Speaker 1: large country, there are going to be emissions associated with 328 00:17:26,960 --> 00:17:27,720 Speaker 1: shipping it around. 329 00:17:27,960 --> 00:17:30,720 Speaker 3: Yes, the supply chain emissions for all of these milks 330 00:17:30,920 --> 00:17:34,159 Speaker 3: is pretty similar depending on where it's farmed that crop. 331 00:17:34,240 --> 00:17:37,600 Speaker 3: But obviously some of the crops, such as soybeans, where 332 00:17:37,640 --> 00:17:41,000 Speaker 3: the largest markets of Brazil and South America, obviously incurs 333 00:17:41,119 --> 00:17:44,119 Speaker 3: much larger shipping costs than from California across the US. 334 00:17:44,400 --> 00:17:47,320 Speaker 1: So let's go into something that I think has been 335 00:17:47,560 --> 00:17:50,680 Speaker 1: well talked about more recently, which is biodiversity. And we're 336 00:17:50,680 --> 00:17:53,080 Speaker 1: staying on the topic of almond milk, because can you 337 00:17:53,160 --> 00:17:56,879 Speaker 1: explain a little bit around what's happening with bees and 338 00:17:56,920 --> 00:18:01,440 Speaker 1: pesticides and how the almond industry is impact ding are pollinators. 339 00:18:01,680 --> 00:18:03,479 Speaker 3: So I think that something that often gets ignored as 340 00:18:03,520 --> 00:18:07,840 Speaker 3: a metric is a bidiversity metric, largely because a bidiversity 341 00:18:07,840 --> 00:18:11,840 Speaker 3: metric hasn't been quantified as of yet for the dairy industry, 342 00:18:11,920 --> 00:18:14,760 Speaker 3: but almond milk actually fares the worst with regard to 343 00:18:15,080 --> 00:18:20,040 Speaker 3: bidiversity loss. So due to California's intense almond industry, this 344 00:18:20,359 --> 00:18:23,439 Speaker 3: requires the use of honey bees that actually pollinate the 345 00:18:23,480 --> 00:18:26,160 Speaker 3: almond farms. Because all of these almonds grow in trees, 346 00:18:26,359 --> 00:18:29,760 Speaker 3: you need bees that often have been bred on commercial 347 00:18:29,800 --> 00:18:34,680 Speaker 3: bee farms specifically for this purpose to help farm those almonds. Now, 348 00:18:34,720 --> 00:18:37,960 Speaker 3: all of those bees are then exposed to pesticides, fertilizer, 349 00:18:38,160 --> 00:18:42,639 Speaker 3: heat damage, and then, once farmed, often die after helping 350 00:18:42,640 --> 00:18:44,879 Speaker 3: to produce those almonds. So it's a concern for a 351 00:18:44,880 --> 00:18:47,720 Speaker 3: lot of people who are vegan drinking almond milk. It's 352 00:18:47,720 --> 00:18:50,919 Speaker 3: a concern that we're using an insect to produce all 353 00:18:50,960 --> 00:18:53,320 Speaker 3: of this and then killing that insect at the end. 354 00:18:53,440 --> 00:18:57,120 Speaker 3: A more environmentally friendly substitute for someone who like myself, 355 00:18:57,160 --> 00:19:00,240 Speaker 3: who loves nut based milks and loves the taste would 356 00:19:00,280 --> 00:19:02,840 Speaker 3: be something like hazel nut milk where those trees are 357 00:19:02,840 --> 00:19:06,119 Speaker 3: cross pollinated by the wind, meaning that bees are not 358 00:19:06,200 --> 00:19:08,520 Speaker 3: harmed in the production of hazel nuts. 359 00:19:08,800 --> 00:19:11,600 Speaker 1: So now hazel nut milk is not firmly on the 360 00:19:11,640 --> 00:19:13,600 Speaker 1: map in terms of market share yet though, is. 361 00:19:13,560 --> 00:19:15,960 Speaker 2: It not at all at all? 362 00:19:15,960 --> 00:19:19,439 Speaker 1: How about the newest entrant that's gained a lot of 363 00:19:19,760 --> 00:19:22,760 Speaker 1: attention as of late the last few years, oat milk? 364 00:19:22,800 --> 00:19:24,080 Speaker 1: Where does oat milk stand? 365 00:19:24,600 --> 00:19:28,320 Speaker 3: Oat milk is actually second most popular to almond milk. 366 00:19:28,560 --> 00:19:31,400 Speaker 3: Oat milk is very similar to soy in a lot 367 00:19:31,400 --> 00:19:33,359 Speaker 3: of the metrics, which is why I kind of always 368 00:19:33,400 --> 00:19:36,040 Speaker 3: clasp them together, mainly because they're grown pretty similarly. 369 00:19:36,480 --> 00:19:38,400 Speaker 2: But oat milk has slightly. 370 00:19:38,320 --> 00:19:41,399 Speaker 3: Less emissions than soy milk, so soy is at around 371 00:19:41,440 --> 00:19:43,760 Speaker 3: one just below one, and oat milk is at around 372 00:19:43,840 --> 00:19:46,800 Speaker 3: zero point nine kilograms of CO two equivalent per liter 373 00:19:46,960 --> 00:19:50,200 Speaker 3: of milk produced. In terms of fresh water, again, oat 374 00:19:50,240 --> 00:19:53,199 Speaker 3: and soy are very very similar. They're both grown in 375 00:19:53,240 --> 00:19:57,719 Speaker 3: monoculture and don't need a ton of water, so there 376 00:19:57,760 --> 00:20:00,359 Speaker 3: are two of the lowest in terms of water assumption 377 00:20:00,480 --> 00:20:03,119 Speaker 3: of plant based milks. And then again for land juice, 378 00:20:03,320 --> 00:20:06,480 Speaker 3: soy and oat are very similar, again having being grown 379 00:20:06,480 --> 00:20:09,160 Speaker 3: in monoculture. The only I would say the only probably 380 00:20:09,359 --> 00:20:12,600 Speaker 3: largest issue, Whereas for almonds we just discussed bidiversity loss, 381 00:20:12,600 --> 00:20:16,080 Speaker 3: we discussed water consumption. For rice, we discussed the high emissions. 382 00:20:16,200 --> 00:20:18,440 Speaker 3: For soy and oat, I would say land juice is 383 00:20:18,480 --> 00:20:22,640 Speaker 3: the most difficult metric for these two milks, because soybeans 384 00:20:22,640 --> 00:20:24,960 Speaker 3: are grown on flat land and are a major driver 385 00:20:25,040 --> 00:20:28,440 Speaker 3: of deforestation the same as oats, especially in less economically 386 00:20:28,520 --> 00:20:32,400 Speaker 3: developed countries, especially Brazil and Argentina, who actually share over 387 00:20:32,440 --> 00:20:35,800 Speaker 3: half of the global soybean export market. Oats typically need 388 00:20:35,840 --> 00:20:39,159 Speaker 3: slightly cooler climates and are largely grown in the northern 389 00:20:39,240 --> 00:20:42,520 Speaker 3: US States or Canada, so less of a problem for 390 00:20:42,600 --> 00:20:46,520 Speaker 3: deforestation in South America, but still a problem in those regions. 391 00:20:47,080 --> 00:20:48,960 Speaker 1: This is just depressing. I feel like a camper. 392 00:20:50,200 --> 00:20:54,080 Speaker 3: I know, it's really a choice of which one is 393 00:20:54,280 --> 00:20:56,480 Speaker 3: the least bad for all of the metrics. 394 00:20:56,920 --> 00:21:00,399 Speaker 1: Let's talk a little bit about consumer adoption and really 395 00:21:00,600 --> 00:21:03,800 Speaker 1: whether or not we see this industry growing into the future. 396 00:21:04,040 --> 00:21:08,000 Speaker 1: There are certain drivers associated with emissions as people become 397 00:21:08,240 --> 00:21:12,280 Speaker 1: increasingly concerned about climate and are focused on reducing emissions 398 00:21:12,320 --> 00:21:14,639 Speaker 1: in the longer term, but invariably there are other drivers, 399 00:21:14,640 --> 00:21:16,720 Speaker 1: and you mentioned it earlier in the show, How about 400 00:21:16,760 --> 00:21:20,200 Speaker 1: lactose intolerance. Is this something we're seeing growing in terms 401 00:21:20,240 --> 00:21:22,280 Speaker 1: of prevalence and awareness? 402 00:21:22,600 --> 00:21:25,480 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean it's definitely growing in terms of prevalence. 403 00:21:25,520 --> 00:21:28,280 Speaker 3: I'm not sure if it's growing in awareness, but milk 404 00:21:28,280 --> 00:21:31,560 Speaker 3: protein actually accounts for twelve percent of all protein consumed 405 00:21:31,600 --> 00:21:35,320 Speaker 3: by humans and growing Lactose intolerance is one of the 406 00:21:35,480 --> 00:21:39,000 Speaker 3: largest reasons why a lot of consumers switch to plant 407 00:21:39,040 --> 00:21:42,040 Speaker 3: based milk, and I think the figure is around sixty 408 00:21:42,080 --> 00:21:46,000 Speaker 3: five percent of the global population suffers from lactose intolerance, 409 00:21:46,280 --> 00:21:49,280 Speaker 3: and a study showed that I think just under half 410 00:21:49,359 --> 00:21:54,800 Speaker 3: of today's consumers by plant based milks or proteins for 411 00:21:55,280 --> 00:22:00,000 Speaker 3: health reasons such as lactose intolerance. And with that growing, yes, absolutely, 412 00:22:00,040 --> 00:22:02,639 Speaker 3: that will continue to be a really important reason in 413 00:22:02,680 --> 00:22:04,359 Speaker 3: this shift to plant based airy. 414 00:22:04,880 --> 00:22:07,120 Speaker 1: What parts of the world and maybe you could even 415 00:22:07,160 --> 00:22:10,199 Speaker 1: call out a couple of countries that the adoption of 416 00:22:10,280 --> 00:22:12,280 Speaker 1: plant based alternatives have really taken off. 417 00:22:12,600 --> 00:22:15,439 Speaker 3: One of the main countries where plant based milks have 418 00:22:15,720 --> 00:22:20,360 Speaker 3: really taken off again, probably due to lactose intolerance, is China. 419 00:22:20,440 --> 00:22:24,760 Speaker 3: So around fifty percent of people in China have already 420 00:22:24,920 --> 00:22:28,840 Speaker 3: kind of integrated alternative proteins and dairy into their diet. 421 00:22:29,320 --> 00:22:32,800 Speaker 3: But the entire Asian market of dairy alternatives is structured 422 00:22:33,080 --> 00:22:36,000 Speaker 3: very differently to the US and Europe. In the US 423 00:22:36,040 --> 00:22:38,680 Speaker 3: and Europe, there are a ton of different players. 424 00:22:38,680 --> 00:22:41,680 Speaker 2: We have large companies, we have small tiny. 425 00:22:41,320 --> 00:22:44,840 Speaker 3: Startups with five six employees producing Pea milks. We have 426 00:22:44,960 --> 00:22:48,399 Speaker 3: these gigantic firms names that you're really familiar with, like 427 00:22:48,480 --> 00:22:52,119 Speaker 3: Kellogg's and Danon producing all these innovative lines of yogurt 428 00:22:52,240 --> 00:22:56,440 Speaker 3: drinks and plant based ice creams. Whereas in Asia this 429 00:22:56,560 --> 00:23:00,320 Speaker 3: market is structured very differently, with six main players that 430 00:23:00,520 --> 00:23:04,080 Speaker 3: dominate this entire market. And those six main players are 431 00:23:04,080 --> 00:23:06,640 Speaker 3: actually all soy or nut based. 432 00:23:07,000 --> 00:23:08,680 Speaker 1: Who are those companies, so. 433 00:23:08,600 --> 00:23:11,160 Speaker 3: You might be familiar with one of them, Vita Sooi 434 00:23:11,440 --> 00:23:14,000 Speaker 3: obviously you can tell from the name what crop they use. 435 00:23:14,359 --> 00:23:17,359 Speaker 3: Yang Yuan is the second largest, which is a walnut 436 00:23:17,520 --> 00:23:21,639 Speaker 3: and nut based milks. Dai Foods which is soy again, 437 00:23:21,960 --> 00:23:23,240 Speaker 3: they're the three largest. 438 00:23:23,440 --> 00:23:25,119 Speaker 1: And then in other parts of the world, there's been 439 00:23:25,160 --> 00:23:27,080 Speaker 1: a good amount of M and A activity as well 440 00:23:27,119 --> 00:23:30,960 Speaker 1: as some notable IPOs. What has happened in terms of 441 00:23:31,000 --> 00:23:33,119 Speaker 1: the business structure in other parts of the world. 442 00:23:33,440 --> 00:23:36,800 Speaker 3: So you mentioned MNA and some of those IPO deals. 443 00:23:36,880 --> 00:23:40,600 Speaker 3: So we looked at from twenty fifteen to twenty twenty two. 444 00:23:40,960 --> 00:23:44,240 Speaker 3: Then around two point eight billion, which is really not 445 00:23:44,320 --> 00:23:47,680 Speaker 3: a lot across seven years, was raised through public markets, 446 00:23:47,720 --> 00:23:51,960 Speaker 3: but a huge twenty three billion was raised from mergers 447 00:23:51,960 --> 00:23:54,840 Speaker 3: and acquisitions. Within that sort of first figure, I told 448 00:23:54,880 --> 00:23:58,240 Speaker 3: you the public markets, the largest transactions were Oatly who 449 00:23:58,280 --> 00:24:00,600 Speaker 3: I'm sure you're very familiar with the most popular oat 450 00:24:00,640 --> 00:24:03,560 Speaker 3: milk brand, and who I just mentioned the Asian firm 451 00:24:03,680 --> 00:24:06,560 Speaker 3: Dali Food their IPO as well. But in terms of 452 00:24:06,880 --> 00:24:10,960 Speaker 3: m and A, yes, a lot of larger firms such 453 00:24:10,960 --> 00:24:14,879 Speaker 3: as dan On and Otsuka who again you may not 454 00:24:15,160 --> 00:24:17,320 Speaker 3: know that those are the companies that own some of 455 00:24:17,359 --> 00:24:21,440 Speaker 3: your favorite brands and mine like Silk outpro So Delicious, 456 00:24:21,520 --> 00:24:25,240 Speaker 3: even Dia Foods, And then you have Upfield and Violife. 457 00:24:25,280 --> 00:24:25,560 Speaker 2: Again. 458 00:24:25,720 --> 00:24:28,560 Speaker 3: Violife and Dia Foods are two of the leading plant 459 00:24:28,600 --> 00:24:31,000 Speaker 3: based cheese brands in the US, again. 460 00:24:30,880 --> 00:24:32,600 Speaker 2: Acquired by KKR. 461 00:24:32,840 --> 00:24:35,080 Speaker 3: So a lot of these transactions we kind of know, 462 00:24:35,160 --> 00:24:38,120 Speaker 3: as the consumers the names of the brands rather than 463 00:24:38,320 --> 00:24:39,840 Speaker 3: the larger companies behind them. 464 00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:44,480 Speaker 1: So we've talked to fair amount about the large companies 465 00:24:44,600 --> 00:24:47,400 Speaker 1: and the acquisition opportunities in this space. But how about 466 00:24:47,400 --> 00:24:49,760 Speaker 1: the startups you reference that many of them may be 467 00:24:50,040 --> 00:24:52,359 Speaker 1: quite appealing at least when they reach a certain degree 468 00:24:52,400 --> 00:24:55,520 Speaker 1: of sophistication. But startups all start somewhere, and they start 469 00:24:55,600 --> 00:24:59,000 Speaker 1: with VC funding. What's the activity look like in the 470 00:24:59,119 --> 00:25:01,440 Speaker 1: VC space for these alternatives? 471 00:25:01,680 --> 00:25:05,920 Speaker 3: Across the last seven years, we've seen two billion raised 472 00:25:05,960 --> 00:25:09,880 Speaker 3: for early staged companies producing alternative dairy products. Across those 473 00:25:09,920 --> 00:25:13,600 Speaker 3: seven years. Total funding actually peaked in twenty twenty, where 474 00:25:13,800 --> 00:25:17,320 Speaker 3: around six hundred million was raised across the entire year. 475 00:25:17,640 --> 00:25:20,480 Speaker 3: That decreased to four hundred and fifty million in twenty 476 00:25:20,520 --> 00:25:23,679 Speaker 3: twenty one, and then around three hundred and thirty million 477 00:25:23,960 --> 00:25:27,560 Speaker 3: last year, so that VC money is decreasing a little bit. 478 00:25:27,600 --> 00:25:29,040 Speaker 2: But I think this trend is. 479 00:25:29,000 --> 00:25:33,160 Speaker 3: More reflective of the overall financial market today, which obviously 480 00:25:33,160 --> 00:25:35,640 Speaker 3: took a recent downturn, as well as the fact that 481 00:25:35,840 --> 00:25:39,680 Speaker 3: many of those plant based dairy startups were acquired early on, 482 00:25:40,040 --> 00:25:43,240 Speaker 3: so there's less need for VC funding and growth equity 483 00:25:43,280 --> 00:25:46,720 Speaker 3: funding in series D or eof rounds like you see 484 00:25:46,760 --> 00:25:48,240 Speaker 3: in I don't know the EV market. 485 00:25:48,680 --> 00:25:50,520 Speaker 1: Now you've brought up Dan in a couple of times, 486 00:25:50,640 --> 00:25:53,920 Speaker 1: and in twenty twenty one they had a change in CEO. 487 00:25:54,359 --> 00:25:57,280 Speaker 1: The previous CEO very much being considered one of the 488 00:25:57,280 --> 00:26:01,480 Speaker 1: more environmentally friendly CEOs out there in the food industry. 489 00:26:01,560 --> 00:26:04,840 Speaker 1: I imagine that some of the decisions around getting into 490 00:26:04,960 --> 00:26:07,800 Speaker 1: this plant based space we're in some respects aligned with 491 00:26:07,960 --> 00:26:12,040 Speaker 1: that view around making environmentally conscious decisions. Have they continued 492 00:26:12,080 --> 00:26:13,879 Speaker 1: to be actively involved in this space? 493 00:26:14,400 --> 00:26:17,960 Speaker 3: Just to preface that this French dairy giant is actually 494 00:26:18,240 --> 00:26:21,919 Speaker 3: one of the largest public players in the alternative dairy market. 495 00:26:22,160 --> 00:26:25,959 Speaker 3: Its plant based product market share was around forty one 496 00:26:26,040 --> 00:26:29,280 Speaker 3: percent in twenty twenty And yes, I'm aware of that 497 00:26:29,400 --> 00:26:32,240 Speaker 3: change in CEO and discussions around whether they're still going 498 00:26:32,280 --> 00:26:35,240 Speaker 3: to stay super green although I hate that word, but 499 00:26:35,520 --> 00:26:37,200 Speaker 3: you know, just as environmental friendly. 500 00:26:37,240 --> 00:26:38,200 Speaker 2: The answer is yes. 501 00:26:38,600 --> 00:26:41,399 Speaker 3: So. Actually, between twenty twenty one and today, dan On 502 00:26:41,640 --> 00:26:44,159 Speaker 3: reached its goal of sourcing all of its soybeans for 503 00:26:44,240 --> 00:26:47,320 Speaker 3: its outpro products from areas not at risk of deforestation. 504 00:26:47,680 --> 00:26:50,720 Speaker 3: They had all their soybeans pro Terra certified. If you're 505 00:26:50,760 --> 00:26:54,320 Speaker 3: not familiar with pro Terra, certification basically ensures that high 506 00:26:54,400 --> 00:26:57,679 Speaker 3: quality crops and food are certified as non GMO and 507 00:26:57,760 --> 00:27:01,320 Speaker 3: produced with this standard of sustained ability and they have 508 00:27:01,400 --> 00:27:04,520 Speaker 3: all these metrics like product traceability and waste management. But 509 00:27:04,600 --> 00:27:06,600 Speaker 3: as well as that, yeah, one hundred percent. In twenty 510 00:27:06,600 --> 00:27:10,440 Speaker 3: twenty two, they invested into another oat milk startup. They 511 00:27:10,880 --> 00:27:15,119 Speaker 3: announced further expansion into powdered milk, protein and plant based 512 00:27:15,160 --> 00:27:18,880 Speaker 3: baby foods last year. So a lot of new announcements happening, 513 00:27:19,040 --> 00:27:21,720 Speaker 3: especially in the last two years actually since this shift 514 00:27:21,760 --> 00:27:22,240 Speaker 3: in CEO. 515 00:27:22,800 --> 00:27:25,560 Speaker 1: So that's for Dannin specifically. But I mean, if I 516 00:27:25,600 --> 00:27:27,560 Speaker 1: had to sum up, what you've really been saying about 517 00:27:27,640 --> 00:27:30,600 Speaker 1: the market overall is that there is a lot of 518 00:27:30,640 --> 00:27:33,920 Speaker 1: interest from larger companies that we may not even realize 519 00:27:33,920 --> 00:27:35,600 Speaker 1: that are in this space. And it seems to be 520 00:27:36,000 --> 00:27:40,600 Speaker 1: that acquisitions and less so IPOs, but acquisitions continue to 521 00:27:40,640 --> 00:27:44,159 Speaker 1: be popular as companies and incumbent players add this to 522 00:27:44,200 --> 00:27:45,000 Speaker 1: their portfolio. 523 00:27:45,240 --> 00:27:48,520 Speaker 3: Yes, exactly, And I think that's a really big incentive 524 00:27:48,640 --> 00:27:51,000 Speaker 3: for a lot of these startup founders and a lot 525 00:27:51,080 --> 00:27:54,080 Speaker 3: of these smaller firms. They know that if they make 526 00:27:54,240 --> 00:27:57,679 Speaker 3: a great product, an innovative product, whether it's not based 527 00:27:57,760 --> 00:28:00,000 Speaker 3: or oat based, they know that there is a huge 528 00:28:00,200 --> 00:28:02,480 Speaker 3: market out there for m and a They know that 529 00:28:02,560 --> 00:28:06,760 Speaker 3: the chobanis, the Saputos, the Bell group, the DMK groups, 530 00:28:06,800 --> 00:28:10,080 Speaker 3: even existing dairy firms. They know that there is this 531 00:28:10,200 --> 00:28:12,880 Speaker 3: shift towards a plant based diet. Everyone knows that there 532 00:28:12,960 --> 00:28:15,840 Speaker 3: is this shift. So it's a real great incentive for 533 00:28:16,000 --> 00:28:18,960 Speaker 3: some of these early stage startups to be acquired by 534 00:28:19,040 --> 00:28:22,119 Speaker 3: some of these larger, even pure play dairy firms to 535 00:28:22,200 --> 00:28:24,040 Speaker 3: expand their product line. 536 00:28:24,119 --> 00:28:27,639 Speaker 1: Well. So then that brings me to influence and really 537 00:28:28,160 --> 00:28:31,000 Speaker 1: who has a stake in this market in terms of 538 00:28:31,080 --> 00:28:34,840 Speaker 1: either gaining market share or potentially keeping and withstanding their 539 00:28:34,880 --> 00:28:37,600 Speaker 1: market share in the US specifically, you know, the dairy 540 00:28:37,640 --> 00:28:41,360 Speaker 1: farmers certainly have a very active lobby. Can you talk 541 00:28:41,400 --> 00:28:44,000 Speaker 1: a little bit about some of the activity we've seen there, 542 00:28:44,320 --> 00:28:47,080 Speaker 1: because certainly market share is not lost easily. 543 00:28:47,720 --> 00:28:52,800 Speaker 3: That brings me onto the unfortunate topic of price, which 544 00:28:53,040 --> 00:28:57,000 Speaker 3: it's not a brand new fact that plant based milk 545 00:28:57,120 --> 00:28:59,320 Speaker 3: is a lot more expensive than dairy. 546 00:28:59,040 --> 00:29:03,440 Speaker 1: Milk a lot give us some context, so it can 547 00:29:03,520 --> 00:29:06,360 Speaker 1: often be double the price of dairy milk. 548 00:29:06,560 --> 00:29:09,600 Speaker 3: But just taking kind of retail prices of milks today, 549 00:29:10,080 --> 00:29:13,560 Speaker 3: in two Q twenty twenty three, the average price per 550 00:29:13,680 --> 00:29:17,000 Speaker 3: liter of dairy milk would be around a dollar thirty 551 00:29:17,360 --> 00:29:21,840 Speaker 3: and the average price per liter of let's say coconut 552 00:29:21,920 --> 00:29:25,600 Speaker 3: milk or soy milk is around two ten, so there 553 00:29:25,720 --> 00:29:29,440 Speaker 3: is a significant increase in price. Now A lot of 554 00:29:29,480 --> 00:29:33,120 Speaker 3: that is due to some of the subsidies. By talking 555 00:29:33,240 --> 00:29:37,520 Speaker 3: us specific some of the government subsidies. The US is 556 00:29:37,560 --> 00:29:39,560 Speaker 3: a bit of a special case because it is one 557 00:29:39,600 --> 00:29:42,800 Speaker 3: of the world's largest milk producers and has one of 558 00:29:42,840 --> 00:29:46,280 Speaker 3: the governments with the most mature support schemes in place. 559 00:29:46,560 --> 00:29:50,040 Speaker 3: The USDA regulates and promotes the US dairy industry through 560 00:29:50,120 --> 00:29:53,320 Speaker 3: a ton of dairy related programs. Three new policies were 561 00:29:53,320 --> 00:29:57,080 Speaker 3: introduced in the last two years alone, with two specifically 562 00:29:57,160 --> 00:30:00,520 Speaker 3: targeted at assisting dairy farmers due to the pandemic. 563 00:30:01,040 --> 00:30:03,200 Speaker 1: Could you give us a little bit more detail around 564 00:30:03,240 --> 00:30:05,960 Speaker 1: what some of the USDA policies are that are really 565 00:30:06,000 --> 00:30:07,800 Speaker 1: in support of the dairy industry. 566 00:30:08,200 --> 00:30:11,440 Speaker 3: Yeah, definitely, And just to preface that before I go 567 00:30:11,480 --> 00:30:15,720 Speaker 3: into the USDA policies, just fyi, there are no policies 568 00:30:15,800 --> 00:30:19,239 Speaker 3: or subsidies support for the plant based dairy industry. And 569 00:30:19,320 --> 00:30:22,480 Speaker 3: in fact it's actually in feb twenty twenty three, so 570 00:30:22,680 --> 00:30:25,040 Speaker 3: just a few months ago, the FDA introduced kind of 571 00:30:25,080 --> 00:30:28,280 Speaker 3: a new requirement for plant based milks to be labeled 572 00:30:28,440 --> 00:30:31,120 Speaker 3: with the nutritional comparison, which is obviously going to be 573 00:30:31,240 --> 00:30:35,000 Speaker 3: less protein than dairy milk on every bottle. And there 574 00:30:35,040 --> 00:30:37,880 Speaker 3: are a massive kind of lobbying happening right now to 575 00:30:37,960 --> 00:30:41,280 Speaker 3: actually make plant based milks unable to be called milk. 576 00:30:41,640 --> 00:30:44,400 Speaker 3: So there is a lobbying to remove the word milk 577 00:30:44,520 --> 00:30:47,240 Speaker 3: off some of those cartons. But some of those policies 578 00:30:47,280 --> 00:30:49,920 Speaker 3: include one of the largest ones, i would say, of 579 00:30:50,040 --> 00:30:52,880 Speaker 3: the Federal Milk Marketing Orders. So this is like a 580 00:30:52,920 --> 00:30:57,040 Speaker 3: classified pricing system and revenue pooling for dairy farmers, which 581 00:30:57,080 --> 00:31:00,960 Speaker 3: really helps to maintain stable marketing relationship. There's the Dairy 582 00:31:01,040 --> 00:31:04,960 Speaker 3: Research and Promotion Program, which is a really coordinated promotion 583 00:31:05,160 --> 00:31:09,120 Speaker 3: program that helps build demand and expand domestic and international 584 00:31:09,160 --> 00:31:12,560 Speaker 3: markets for dairy products in the US. It actually funds 585 00:31:12,840 --> 00:31:16,920 Speaker 3: a program called Dairy Management Incorporated to actually help pay 586 00:31:17,000 --> 00:31:21,120 Speaker 3: farmers that are producing dairy milk. There's the Dairy Donation Program, 587 00:31:21,240 --> 00:31:25,600 Speaker 3: which provides four hundred million dollars in reimbursements to dairy organizations. 588 00:31:25,840 --> 00:31:28,600 Speaker 3: And then there are other COVID specific programs like the 589 00:31:28,640 --> 00:31:32,760 Speaker 3: pandemic market Volatility Assistance program last year, which is again 590 00:31:32,800 --> 00:31:36,000 Speaker 3: another three hundred and fifty million available in assistance payments 591 00:31:36,080 --> 00:31:38,960 Speaker 3: to farmers. And yeah, just a lot of policies in 592 00:31:39,000 --> 00:31:42,680 Speaker 3: the USDA to ensure that dairy milk remains the cheapest option. 593 00:31:43,040 --> 00:31:45,200 Speaker 1: And certainly on the business end of things, which is 594 00:31:45,240 --> 00:31:47,800 Speaker 1: where we have focused really this show. And I think 595 00:31:47,800 --> 00:31:50,440 Speaker 1: it's great that you bring up the protein question because 596 00:31:50,440 --> 00:31:53,040 Speaker 1: that's actually something that we're not going into. We're talking 597 00:31:53,120 --> 00:31:57,720 Speaker 1: about land use, emissions, water, and then policies and also 598 00:31:58,040 --> 00:32:00,680 Speaker 1: business models in this space. But there is a whole 599 00:32:00,800 --> 00:32:04,520 Speaker 1: nother world of research within nutrition and how does one 600 00:32:04,560 --> 00:32:09,600 Speaker 1: create a planetarium yet nutritionally enhanced diet. So on that 601 00:32:09,760 --> 00:32:12,600 Speaker 1: nutrition end of things, that really then brings me to 602 00:32:12,640 --> 00:32:16,160 Speaker 1: some of this future technology. So we've been specifically talking 603 00:32:16,320 --> 00:32:20,080 Speaker 1: about various nuts and lagoomes and then of course dairy milk, 604 00:32:20,280 --> 00:32:25,720 Speaker 1: but how about precision fermentation and this much more technologically 605 00:32:25,800 --> 00:32:29,080 Speaker 1: advanced way of thinking about how this industry may develop 606 00:32:29,160 --> 00:32:31,120 Speaker 1: and what some of the pros and cons are. 607 00:32:31,400 --> 00:32:35,000 Speaker 3: Precision flementation is the newest technology in the plant based 608 00:32:35,040 --> 00:32:38,680 Speaker 3: airy space. Some people often refer to it as cellular agriculture, 609 00:32:38,800 --> 00:32:41,480 Speaker 3: so you may have heard that term before, but it's 610 00:32:41,560 --> 00:32:44,959 Speaker 3: essentially a newer technology that's used to produce milk proteins 611 00:32:45,120 --> 00:32:48,640 Speaker 3: such as casin and whey in a powder form. So 612 00:32:49,040 --> 00:32:51,760 Speaker 3: it uses not to get too sciency on you, but 613 00:32:51,840 --> 00:32:56,120 Speaker 3: it uses genetically engineered microbes to produce some of these 614 00:32:56,320 --> 00:33:01,800 Speaker 3: proteins that eventually are mixed then with water or nutrients 615 00:33:01,960 --> 00:33:04,960 Speaker 3: and a choice of feedstock like sucrose or glucose, and 616 00:33:05,240 --> 00:33:09,200 Speaker 3: when these organisms ferment in big bioreactor, they produce the 617 00:33:09,360 --> 00:33:13,240 Speaker 3: milk proteins that are desired. So essentially you can think 618 00:33:13,280 --> 00:33:16,680 Speaker 3: of this as a company producing the powder, selling to 619 00:33:16,840 --> 00:33:19,920 Speaker 3: other companies that then mix this powder and then sell 620 00:33:19,960 --> 00:33:23,479 Speaker 3: that on as an actual glass of dairy milk because 621 00:33:23,520 --> 00:33:25,880 Speaker 3: it is technically dairy milk. So this is a really 622 00:33:25,920 --> 00:33:28,840 Speaker 3: good solution for people who don't want to compromise and 623 00:33:28,960 --> 00:33:31,600 Speaker 3: don't want to try a plant based milk, who still 624 00:33:31,640 --> 00:33:33,760 Speaker 3: want the dairy milk, but without all of the emissions, 625 00:33:33,760 --> 00:33:35,840 Speaker 3: without all of the land juice, without all of the 626 00:33:35,960 --> 00:33:39,760 Speaker 3: biodiversity loss, without the intense water consumption, but still consuming 627 00:33:39,840 --> 00:33:40,400 Speaker 3: dairy milk. 628 00:33:40,560 --> 00:33:42,480 Speaker 1: And then that brings me to what would the cost 629 00:33:42,520 --> 00:33:44,200 Speaker 1: of this be well. 630 00:33:44,280 --> 00:33:47,720 Speaker 3: I was hoping we wouldn't get into that question. But 631 00:33:48,040 --> 00:33:51,440 Speaker 3: the cost of precision fermented milk right now in twenty 632 00:33:51,480 --> 00:33:51,920 Speaker 3: twenty three. 633 00:33:52,040 --> 00:33:54,880 Speaker 2: Bear in mind, this is a brand new technology. 634 00:33:54,960 --> 00:33:58,400 Speaker 3: It is actually only commercially available in the US by 635 00:33:58,480 --> 00:34:02,800 Speaker 3: two companies currently, so very very early st age is 636 00:34:02,880 --> 00:34:06,800 Speaker 3: around six dollars and eighty seven cents for a liter 637 00:34:07,040 --> 00:34:08,520 Speaker 3: of precision fermented milk. 638 00:34:08,880 --> 00:34:11,040 Speaker 1: So that brings me to my final set of questions, 639 00:34:11,040 --> 00:34:13,520 Speaker 1: which are a bit of watcher ignore. You are the 640 00:34:13,640 --> 00:34:16,000 Speaker 1: expert in this space, or at least at bn EF, 641 00:34:16,000 --> 00:34:18,480 Speaker 1: you are our resident expert on this topic, and so 642 00:34:18,600 --> 00:34:20,440 Speaker 1: I want to know what sort of things are you 643 00:34:20,520 --> 00:34:23,120 Speaker 1: watching closely? And what sort of things are you maybe 644 00:34:23,120 --> 00:34:25,879 Speaker 1: not watching so closely at the moment, So falling into 645 00:34:25,920 --> 00:34:29,799 Speaker 1: the category of watch or ignore. How about blends of 646 00:34:29,880 --> 00:34:33,600 Speaker 1: different alternative milks. Are people out there making their own 647 00:34:33,719 --> 00:34:37,960 Speaker 1: almond oats, rice milk cocktails to their taste or is 648 00:34:38,000 --> 00:34:40,719 Speaker 1: that something that is not so popular? 649 00:34:41,040 --> 00:34:43,400 Speaker 3: I would put that as ignore. I would say that 650 00:34:43,440 --> 00:34:47,080 Speaker 3: the blends aren't super popular. I think ultimately consumers have 651 00:34:47,280 --> 00:34:52,160 Speaker 3: defined likes and dislikes and defined preferences, So I don't 652 00:34:52,160 --> 00:34:54,279 Speaker 3: really I don't think blends are going to be a 653 00:34:54,320 --> 00:34:55,240 Speaker 3: thing going forwards. 654 00:34:55,480 --> 00:34:55,800 Speaker 2: Okay. 655 00:34:55,880 --> 00:34:59,400 Speaker 1: Also in the watcher ignore category the direct methane emissions 656 00:34:59,400 --> 00:35:02,680 Speaker 1: associated with cows themselves, and of course everybody's favorite topic, 657 00:35:02,800 --> 00:35:07,080 Speaker 1: cow farts. How about additives added to a cow diet 658 00:35:07,120 --> 00:35:09,759 Speaker 1: to reduce their direct methane emissions? 659 00:35:10,080 --> 00:35:11,080 Speaker 2: I would say, watch. 660 00:35:11,320 --> 00:35:14,320 Speaker 3: I think there are a lot of really interesting startup 661 00:35:14,440 --> 00:35:18,720 Speaker 3: that are looking at seaweed based feed additives that there's 662 00:35:18,800 --> 00:35:24,040 Speaker 3: also a really large agricultural firm DSM that have patented bromaform, 663 00:35:24,200 --> 00:35:27,200 Speaker 3: which is another feed additive for cattle. I think that's 664 00:35:27,200 --> 00:35:31,160 Speaker 3: an area that can definitely reduce methane emissions. The problem again, 665 00:35:31,320 --> 00:35:34,600 Speaker 3: then is adoption with farmers. How many farmers are actually 666 00:35:34,680 --> 00:35:37,440 Speaker 3: going to pay more for a feed additive without a 667 00:35:37,520 --> 00:35:40,279 Speaker 3: financial benefit to reducing their emissions. 668 00:35:40,760 --> 00:35:42,920 Speaker 1: Well, Sarah, thank you very much for joining today and 669 00:35:43,000 --> 00:35:47,120 Speaker 1: explaining the complicated world of trade offs that exist within 670 00:35:47,520 --> 00:35:50,160 Speaker 1: the dairy and dairy alternative space. 671 00:35:50,400 --> 00:35:51,319 Speaker 2: Thank you for having me. 672 00:35:51,440 --> 00:35:59,720 Speaker 3: I look forward to the next chat. 673 00:36:01,440 --> 00:36:04,759 Speaker 1: Bloomberg NEF is a service provided by Bloomberg Finance LP 674 00:36:04,960 --> 00:36:08,360 Speaker 1: and its affiliates. This recording does not constitute, nor should 675 00:36:08,360 --> 00:36:12,400 Speaker 1: it be construed as investment advice, investment recommendations, or a 676 00:36:12,440 --> 00:36:16,360 Speaker 1: recommendation as to an investment or other strategy. Bloomberg NEF 677 00:36:16,520 --> 00:36:19,640 Speaker 1: should not be considered as information sufficient upon which to 678 00:36:19,680 --> 00:36:23,440 Speaker 1: base an investment decision. Neither Bloomberg Finance LP nor any 679 00:36:23,480 --> 00:36:26,840 Speaker 1: of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty as to 680 00:36:26,880 --> 00:36:30,280 Speaker 1: the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this recording, 681 00:36:30,680 --> 00:36:33,480 Speaker 1: and any liability as a result of this recording is 682 00:36:33,480 --> 00:36:34,600 Speaker 1: expressly disclaimed