1 00:00:02,560 --> 00:00:07,040 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:09,840 --> 00:00:13,160 Speaker 2: This is your weekly Washington Policy Pulse the Balance of 3 00:00:13,240 --> 00:00:17,680 Speaker 2: Power Podcasts. I'm Joe Matthew. Every Monday, Bloomberg Intelligence, senior 4 00:00:17,720 --> 00:00:20,800 Speaker 2: policy analyst and friend of the show, Nathan Dean shares 5 00:00:20,840 --> 00:00:24,200 Speaker 2: his weekly call on upcoming catalysts in the nation's capital. 6 00:00:24,720 --> 00:00:27,360 Speaker 2: Listen for the most recent and relevant policy research from 7 00:00:27,400 --> 00:00:30,880 Speaker 2: our team at Bloomberg Intelligence. Now with today's installment, here's 8 00:00:30,960 --> 00:00:31,520 Speaker 2: Nathan Dean. 9 00:00:31,840 --> 00:00:33,760 Speaker 1: Afternoon, everybody. My name is Nathan Dean. 10 00:00:33,840 --> 00:00:36,400 Speaker 3: I'm a senior policy animalst with Bloomberg Intelligence here in 11 00:00:36,440 --> 00:00:39,840 Speaker 3: the Washington, DC Bureau. Welcome to the Washington Policy Pulse, 12 00:00:39,840 --> 00:00:41,640 Speaker 3: and welcome to those of you who are coming to 13 00:00:41,720 --> 00:00:45,000 Speaker 3: us via the Balance of Power podcast. We always appreciate 14 00:00:45,040 --> 00:00:49,040 Speaker 3: you listening. Today's December fifteenth. We're recording this at ten 15 00:00:49,360 --> 00:00:53,680 Speaker 3: two Eastern. We timestamp this just because obviously things change, 16 00:00:54,040 --> 00:00:56,160 Speaker 3: and what I wanted to do today is just run 17 00:00:56,240 --> 00:00:58,760 Speaker 3: through a lot of the topics of how you should 18 00:00:58,760 --> 00:01:01,080 Speaker 3: be thinking about how Washington is approaching the end of 19 00:01:01,120 --> 00:01:04,280 Speaker 3: the year and how Washington will come back next year. 20 00:01:04,520 --> 00:01:06,200 Speaker 3: Some of this will be a little bit similar to 21 00:01:06,240 --> 00:01:08,279 Speaker 3: what we had last week, but again I just wanted 22 00:01:08,280 --> 00:01:10,320 Speaker 3: to give you an update of where we are and 23 00:01:10,319 --> 00:01:12,039 Speaker 3: what can you expect from Washington in. 24 00:01:12,040 --> 00:01:13,080 Speaker 1: Twenty twenty six. 25 00:01:13,680 --> 00:01:16,240 Speaker 3: Now, the first thing to talk about is the ACA subsidies, 26 00:01:16,240 --> 00:01:18,800 Speaker 3: the Obamacare vote that's going to most likely fail this week. 27 00:01:19,160 --> 00:01:21,959 Speaker 3: My colleague Dwayne Wright continues to publish on the Bloomberg 28 00:01:22,040 --> 00:01:26,119 Speaker 3: terminal and continues to use words like skeptical and long odds. 29 00:01:26,319 --> 00:01:28,360 Speaker 3: Where we are at at the moment is the Democrats 30 00:01:28,400 --> 00:01:30,480 Speaker 3: are continuing to push for a three year extension of 31 00:01:30,480 --> 00:01:33,480 Speaker 3: the Obamacare subsidies. Republicans, well, they have a variety of 32 00:01:33,480 --> 00:01:36,560 Speaker 3: different ideas. Moderate Republicans, some of them are pushing a 33 00:01:36,560 --> 00:01:39,280 Speaker 3: two year extension. Some of them are pushing an alternative 34 00:01:39,280 --> 00:01:43,480 Speaker 3: to Obamacare where money goes into HSA accounts and individuals 35 00:01:43,480 --> 00:01:45,840 Speaker 3: then have to spend We'll be able to spend that 36 00:01:45,959 --> 00:01:49,200 Speaker 3: money into some of their healthcare. The issue is from 37 00:01:49,240 --> 00:01:52,200 Speaker 3: the Republican perspective, is that there's just too many ideas that. 38 00:01:52,160 --> 00:01:55,639 Speaker 1: Are being floated around. There's not enough support for any. 39 00:01:55,560 --> 00:01:57,520 Speaker 3: Of these ideas to get a majority vote in the 40 00:01:57,520 --> 00:02:00,800 Speaker 3: House of Representatives. And we've always said, and this has 41 00:02:00,800 --> 00:02:03,360 Speaker 3: been Dwayne's number one message, is that if something was 42 00:02:03,400 --> 00:02:05,280 Speaker 3: going to get done, it had to be from President 43 00:02:05,320 --> 00:02:08,160 Speaker 3: Donald Trump, and President Donald Trump doesn't really seem to 44 00:02:08,160 --> 00:02:10,840 Speaker 3: be interested at the moment in terms of pursuing additional 45 00:02:10,880 --> 00:02:14,600 Speaker 3: goals or ideas related to Obamacare. And in fact, over 46 00:02:14,639 --> 00:02:16,800 Speaker 3: the weekend you saw some of the Republicans try and 47 00:02:16,840 --> 00:02:19,200 Speaker 3: shift some of the ideas of do we need to 48 00:02:19,240 --> 00:02:21,600 Speaker 3: get sow or do we need to get something done 49 00:02:21,639 --> 00:02:24,920 Speaker 3: by January fifteenth, which is when open enrollment ends, or 50 00:02:25,000 --> 00:02:28,359 Speaker 3: January thirty first, which is when the government shutdown would 51 00:02:28,400 --> 00:02:29,360 Speaker 3: quote unquote begin. 52 00:02:29,919 --> 00:02:31,360 Speaker 1: So look for this debate to go. 53 00:02:31,320 --> 00:02:35,280 Speaker 3: Beyond Congress or December, go into January. But ultimately we 54 00:02:35,320 --> 00:02:38,000 Speaker 3: don't see there's going to be a solution found this week. 55 00:02:38,520 --> 00:02:40,960 Speaker 3: The number one goal for Washington at this point for 56 00:02:41,040 --> 00:02:43,560 Speaker 3: this week is to get out of Washington and go 57 00:02:43,639 --> 00:02:47,120 Speaker 3: home for the holidays. I just mentioned shutdown, so I 58 00:02:47,120 --> 00:02:49,320 Speaker 3: think I should talk about just again where we are 59 00:02:49,320 --> 00:02:52,360 Speaker 3: with this potential shutdown in January thirty first. Nine out 60 00:02:52,360 --> 00:02:55,480 Speaker 3: of the twelve appropriation bills are funded through January thirty first, 61 00:02:55,520 --> 00:02:58,359 Speaker 3: and if Congress doesn't come to an agreement, all executive 62 00:02:58,400 --> 00:03:02,600 Speaker 3: branch agencies under the nine would then shut down and 63 00:03:02,639 --> 00:03:04,720 Speaker 3: we'd have something very similar to what played out earlier 64 00:03:04,760 --> 00:03:07,239 Speaker 3: this year. Now we're at a thirty percent chance of 65 00:03:07,320 --> 00:03:10,440 Speaker 3: government shutdown because even though the situation politically hasn't really 66 00:03:10,520 --> 00:03:13,400 Speaker 3: changed from in terms of messaging or sorry, let me 67 00:03:13,440 --> 00:03:16,440 Speaker 3: rephrase that, even though the situation hasn't really changed in 68 00:03:16,520 --> 00:03:19,400 Speaker 3: terms of these Obamacare subsidies or being able to get 69 00:03:19,520 --> 00:03:24,320 Speaker 3: legislation across the line, things have changed politically the Republicans have. 70 00:03:24,760 --> 00:03:26,760 Speaker 3: You know, if you go back and look at the 71 00:03:26,760 --> 00:03:29,560 Speaker 3: polling data, the Republicans largely got the blame for the shutdown, 72 00:03:30,000 --> 00:03:32,000 Speaker 3: and if you look at the example of the Virginia 73 00:03:32,040 --> 00:03:35,360 Speaker 3: and New Jersey, the Miami elections and so forth, Democrats 74 00:03:35,360 --> 00:03:37,520 Speaker 3: have been doing decently since then in. 75 00:03:37,560 --> 00:03:39,400 Speaker 1: Terms of their off cycle elections. 76 00:03:39,600 --> 00:03:41,920 Speaker 3: So from the Republican perspective, you don't want to have 77 00:03:41,960 --> 00:03:43,520 Speaker 3: a shutdown in case this. 78 00:03:43,400 --> 00:03:44,680 Speaker 1: Actually goes worse for you. 79 00:03:44,960 --> 00:03:46,920 Speaker 3: And from the Democratic perspective, you don't want to have 80 00:03:46,960 --> 00:03:49,000 Speaker 3: a shutdown because you really don't want to change where 81 00:03:49,000 --> 00:03:51,560 Speaker 3: the current polling trends are. And so I do think 82 00:03:51,560 --> 00:03:53,480 Speaker 3: that d'y are going to see an agreement or another 83 00:03:53,560 --> 00:03:56,600 Speaker 3: kick of the can, if you will. Senate appropriators failed 84 00:03:56,680 --> 00:03:58,720 Speaker 3: they were going to try and pass a package this 85 00:03:58,760 --> 00:04:02,200 Speaker 3: week that had five bill in it. They failed, or 86 00:04:02,200 --> 00:04:03,920 Speaker 3: at least they're not going to be able to do so, 87 00:04:03,920 --> 00:04:06,000 Speaker 3: so look for them to come back in January. But 88 00:04:06,080 --> 00:04:08,760 Speaker 3: again kicking the CANNIS most likely option here, we're at 89 00:04:08,760 --> 00:04:11,880 Speaker 3: a thirty percent chance. Also going on this week is 90 00:04:11,920 --> 00:04:15,839 Speaker 3: the Senate will most likely finalize the National Defense Authorization Act. 91 00:04:15,840 --> 00:04:18,560 Speaker 3: The House passed the NBA last week. This is nine 92 00:04:18,640 --> 00:04:22,360 Speaker 3: hundred billion dollars in additional fund or in annual funding 93 00:04:22,400 --> 00:04:24,760 Speaker 3: for the Department of Defense. The majority of it goes 94 00:04:24,760 --> 00:04:27,560 Speaker 3: to the Pentagon. There is one small hiccup on the 95 00:04:27,600 --> 00:04:30,600 Speaker 3: Senate side. It's actually a provision related to military flights 96 00:04:30,839 --> 00:04:34,680 Speaker 3: over Washington Reagan Airport. Not enough to actually get things derailed, 97 00:04:34,680 --> 00:04:36,920 Speaker 3: but you are going to see some senators maybe cause 98 00:04:37,000 --> 00:04:39,520 Speaker 3: a little bit of a headline around that. But ultimately, 99 00:04:39,560 --> 00:04:41,599 Speaker 3: I think the Senate watchers that we've been speaking to 100 00:04:42,080 --> 00:04:44,960 Speaker 3: says that the Senate is bipartisan, you know, in a 101 00:04:44,960 --> 00:04:48,039 Speaker 3: bipartisan manner, is going to overwhelmingly vote for this send 102 00:04:48,040 --> 00:04:49,800 Speaker 3: it to the President's desk. So if you're in the 103 00:04:49,839 --> 00:04:52,680 Speaker 3: defense industry, you are going to get some clarity for 104 00:04:52,680 --> 00:04:55,880 Speaker 3: twenty twenty six spending, so obviously you can take that 105 00:04:56,120 --> 00:04:59,440 Speaker 3: and work with that for next year. My colleague Wayne Sanders, 106 00:04:59,440 --> 00:05:01,840 Speaker 3: our senior to VANS analyst, actually just released a deep 107 00:05:01,880 --> 00:05:04,240 Speaker 3: dive on the state of play for weapons systems in 108 00:05:04,279 --> 00:05:06,960 Speaker 3: twenty twenty six. For those of you with Bloomberg terminals, 109 00:05:07,000 --> 00:05:09,920 Speaker 3: that's available at BIDEEP. Otherwise you can contact Wayne or 110 00:05:09,960 --> 00:05:12,479 Speaker 3: I'll put you in touch with Wayne to get a 111 00:05:12,520 --> 00:05:14,840 Speaker 3: copy of that. He's also putting out in the terminal 112 00:05:14,920 --> 00:05:17,320 Speaker 3: some of his winners and losers from the NDAA. So again, 113 00:05:17,320 --> 00:05:18,800 Speaker 3: if you're in the defense industry and you want to 114 00:05:18,800 --> 00:05:21,000 Speaker 3: talk to that, let us know and we'll put you 115 00:05:21,000 --> 00:05:22,120 Speaker 3: in touch with Wayne. 116 00:05:22,720 --> 00:05:23,919 Speaker 1: A little bit of crypto news. 117 00:05:24,200 --> 00:05:25,960 Speaker 3: I think I talked about this before, but I just 118 00:05:25,960 --> 00:05:29,320 Speaker 3: want to reiterate that we are waiting a proposal from 119 00:05:29,360 --> 00:05:32,680 Speaker 3: the FDIC and the FED on stable coins. It's with 120 00:05:32,800 --> 00:05:37,839 Speaker 3: the OIRA, the Office of International Sorry, inter Agency Affairs, 121 00:05:37,920 --> 00:05:42,520 Speaker 3: regulatory affairs, inter regulatory affairs, especially. 122 00:05:42,320 --> 00:05:43,000 Speaker 1: Just with the White House. 123 00:05:43,800 --> 00:05:46,240 Speaker 3: And so if you remember when President Trump changed things 124 00:05:46,240 --> 00:05:49,280 Speaker 3: a little bit, when regulators finalized proposals, they had to 125 00:05:49,320 --> 00:05:52,200 Speaker 3: send it to the White House for its review. This 126 00:05:52,240 --> 00:05:55,599 Speaker 3: proposal is over there this is a proposal that would 127 00:05:55,600 --> 00:05:58,800 Speaker 3: be the first proposal implementing the Genius Act for stable coins. 128 00:05:59,160 --> 00:06:02,160 Speaker 3: And this is a propose that actually allows stable quoin issue. 129 00:06:02,160 --> 00:06:05,560 Speaker 3: Where's the process to register with authorities like the Federal 130 00:06:05,560 --> 00:06:08,760 Speaker 3: Reserve and the fdi C. Not exactly the most exciting 131 00:06:08,800 --> 00:06:11,040 Speaker 3: proposal out there, I think, you know, this is one 132 00:06:11,040 --> 00:06:12,440 Speaker 3: of those where if you're on the legal side or 133 00:06:12,480 --> 00:06:14,840 Speaker 3: compliance side, you're probably a little bit more excited than 134 00:06:14,880 --> 00:06:17,560 Speaker 3: if you're a crypto investor. But again, it's the first 135 00:06:17,560 --> 00:06:20,120 Speaker 3: of several proposals. Will they get it out before the 136 00:06:20,160 --> 00:06:22,760 Speaker 3: end of the year, We'll see, you know. Like I've 137 00:06:22,800 --> 00:06:25,120 Speaker 3: said before, regulators love to get stuff out before they 138 00:06:25,200 --> 00:06:28,279 Speaker 3: leave for the holidays. But I'm anticipating and I'm going 139 00:06:28,320 --> 00:06:30,520 Speaker 3: to be doing some work over the holidays, so I'll 140 00:06:30,560 --> 00:06:33,320 Speaker 3: try and put out a policy watch note on that one. 141 00:06:33,360 --> 00:06:35,279 Speaker 3: So again, if you have any questions, just reach out. 142 00:06:36,120 --> 00:06:38,920 Speaker 3: Also on the terminal, just note it's outlook season. If 143 00:06:39,000 --> 00:06:41,680 Speaker 3: you know somebody who's in the research research space, or 144 00:06:41,720 --> 00:06:43,920 Speaker 3: if you're a research person, you know that we are 145 00:06:43,920 --> 00:06:46,440 Speaker 3: doing our outlooks right now. Everybody's doing their outlooks. The 146 00:06:46,480 --> 00:06:48,240 Speaker 3: same camp be said, or the same can be said 147 00:06:48,240 --> 00:06:51,359 Speaker 3: for BI. I've released six outlooks, all tied to the 148 00:06:51,360 --> 00:06:54,719 Speaker 3: financial services industry last week. Our macro outlooks are going 149 00:06:54,760 --> 00:06:56,839 Speaker 3: to be going out later this week and next week, 150 00:06:56,880 --> 00:06:59,480 Speaker 3: and then we're going to have a report in early January. 151 00:06:59,520 --> 00:07:01,279 Speaker 3: So again, if you want to copy of that, please 152 00:07:01,279 --> 00:07:03,480 Speaker 3: feel free. The last couple of things I want to 153 00:07:03,480 --> 00:07:05,600 Speaker 3: talk about is for those of you in the broadcaster 154 00:07:05,800 --> 00:07:10,120 Speaker 3: space or if you're in the media space, FCC Chairman 155 00:07:10,160 --> 00:07:12,440 Speaker 3: Brendan Carr is going to have a hearing testifying at 156 00:07:12,440 --> 00:07:13,240 Speaker 3: Center and Commerce. 157 00:07:13,880 --> 00:07:15,640 Speaker 1: This could be a little bit of hiccups. 158 00:07:15,640 --> 00:07:17,720 Speaker 3: Are colleague Matt Schattenholm's gonna be looking at this a 159 00:07:17,720 --> 00:07:20,200 Speaker 3: little bit of headlines just because obviously, as you know, 160 00:07:20,240 --> 00:07:22,960 Speaker 3: President Trump has spent a lot of time on truth 161 00:07:23,000 --> 00:07:28,200 Speaker 3: social blasting the broadcasters, specifically ABC and Disney. But again, 162 00:07:28,280 --> 00:07:30,280 Speaker 3: you know, we'll have to see on Wednesday that hearing 163 00:07:30,320 --> 00:07:32,760 Speaker 3: takes place. So it's the only interesting hearing that's really 164 00:07:32,760 --> 00:07:34,600 Speaker 3: going on this week. So I wanted to highlight it. 165 00:07:35,560 --> 00:07:38,520 Speaker 1: And let's talk about farm aid. So you know, last week, 166 00:07:39,240 --> 00:07:41,000 Speaker 1: let me just check here, I thought I saw a question. 167 00:07:41,280 --> 00:07:43,920 Speaker 1: Oh oh yeah, yep, I'm getting there. I'm getting there 168 00:07:43,920 --> 00:07:46,400 Speaker 1: at cannabis. I'm coming. I'm saving that one for the last. 169 00:07:46,760 --> 00:07:48,680 Speaker 1: So farm aid. Let's talk about farm aid. 170 00:07:49,440 --> 00:07:53,720 Speaker 3: So last Monday, President Trump released twelve billion dollars eleven 171 00:07:53,760 --> 00:07:55,360 Speaker 3: billion dollars for twenty commodities. 172 00:07:55,720 --> 00:07:58,240 Speaker 1: One billion held to be in reserve in terms of 173 00:07:58,240 --> 00:08:01,640 Speaker 1: specialty crops in sugar. But this aid. 174 00:08:01,880 --> 00:08:04,240 Speaker 3: Think of it as a band aid, not a solution. 175 00:08:04,440 --> 00:08:06,160 Speaker 3: And we've talked about this on the call about high 176 00:08:06,200 --> 00:08:09,680 Speaker 3: crop prices. I'm sorry, low crop prices, high production costs, 177 00:08:10,080 --> 00:08:14,000 Speaker 3: you know, China US soybean purchases. But the reason why 178 00:08:14,040 --> 00:08:16,400 Speaker 3: I wanted to tell you again why I think aid 179 00:08:16,480 --> 00:08:19,040 Speaker 3: is coming next year, is that this was eleven billion 180 00:08:19,080 --> 00:08:21,160 Speaker 3: dollars in aid, and I just did so. We did 181 00:08:21,200 --> 00:08:24,200 Speaker 3: some back of the envelope math where we went to 182 00:08:24,240 --> 00:08:27,200 Speaker 3: the USDA website and they estimate how much loss is 183 00:08:27,280 --> 00:08:31,239 Speaker 3: per acre per crop. So if you take in corn, 184 00:08:31,320 --> 00:08:35,160 Speaker 3: for example, the average loss per acre in twenty twenty 185 00:08:35,160 --> 00:08:38,280 Speaker 3: five was ninety three dollars. There are ninety eight million 186 00:08:38,320 --> 00:08:40,800 Speaker 3: acres of corn out there, which brings you to about 187 00:08:40,880 --> 00:08:44,800 Speaker 3: nine billion dollars worth of losses. And so eleven billion 188 00:08:44,840 --> 00:08:48,360 Speaker 3: dollars in aid for twenty crops nine billion dollars in 189 00:08:48,480 --> 00:08:52,120 Speaker 3: losses for one crop. There's more farm aid coming, so 190 00:08:52,160 --> 00:08:54,920 Speaker 3: stay tuned. It's most likely going to come via either 191 00:08:55,000 --> 00:08:57,800 Speaker 3: a light farm bill. Maybe in January you'll see some 192 00:08:57,840 --> 00:08:59,720 Speaker 3: additional funding. This is actually what happened at the end 193 00:08:59,760 --> 00:09:02,240 Speaker 3: of twenty twenty four of the earmarked ten billion dollars 194 00:09:02,240 --> 00:09:03,920 Speaker 3: and extra funds for the farmers. 195 00:09:04,360 --> 00:09:06,120 Speaker 1: But again, more farm made is coming. 196 00:09:06,480 --> 00:09:08,920 Speaker 3: So to the client, you just asked about cannabis, We're 197 00:09:08,920 --> 00:09:12,200 Speaker 3: going to get to cannabis now. So last week, Washington 198 00:09:12,280 --> 00:09:17,200 Speaker 3: Post and then other agency or other news organizations reported 199 00:09:17,240 --> 00:09:20,160 Speaker 3: that President Trump had a meeting with CEOs of the 200 00:09:20,160 --> 00:09:24,400 Speaker 3: marijuana companies and vowed that he would reschedule marijuana from. 201 00:09:24,320 --> 00:09:26,240 Speaker 1: Schedule one to Schedule three. 202 00:09:26,920 --> 00:09:29,920 Speaker 3: In that reporting, there was a call with Speaker Johnson, 203 00:09:30,280 --> 00:09:33,360 Speaker 3: Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, where Speaker Johnson said 204 00:09:33,360 --> 00:09:36,320 Speaker 3: that he was actually against this move. He then President 205 00:09:36,360 --> 00:09:41,360 Speaker 3: Trump then had the CEO's rebut Speaker Johnson's statements, and 206 00:09:41,440 --> 00:09:45,160 Speaker 3: it's been reported that President Trump potentially as early as today, 207 00:09:45,200 --> 00:09:47,839 Speaker 3: which is why I timestamped this at TENO. Now we're 208 00:09:47,840 --> 00:09:51,000 Speaker 3: at ten eleven, AM will issue in order to reclassify 209 00:09:51,080 --> 00:09:53,840 Speaker 3: marijuana Now, if you look at these marijuana equities, you 210 00:09:53,880 --> 00:09:56,880 Speaker 3: saw the MSOs, the ATF is up fifty eight percent. 211 00:09:56,880 --> 00:09:59,040 Speaker 3: At least last time I checked this morning, it was 212 00:09:59,120 --> 00:10:00,880 Speaker 3: up fifty eight percent on the news. 213 00:10:01,160 --> 00:10:02,480 Speaker 1: Now, this is what you need to know. 214 00:10:02,920 --> 00:10:06,520 Speaker 3: The President does not have the authority to unilaterally write, 215 00:10:06,520 --> 00:10:09,240 Speaker 3: by the scope of a pen, the ability to reschedule 216 00:10:09,280 --> 00:10:11,040 Speaker 3: it from Schedule one Schedule three. 217 00:10:11,240 --> 00:10:14,320 Speaker 1: Schedule one is a hard card narcotic drug. Schedule three 218 00:10:14,440 --> 00:10:15,840 Speaker 1: think of tie and all with coding. 219 00:10:16,920 --> 00:10:19,400 Speaker 3: The biggest impact here from scheduling one to Schedule three 220 00:10:19,800 --> 00:10:22,640 Speaker 3: is something called two to eighty tax reathly to eightye 221 00:10:22,880 --> 00:10:24,920 Speaker 3: tax relief. So for a lot of these mom and 222 00:10:24,960 --> 00:10:28,199 Speaker 3: pop marijuana companies, their tax rates right now are around forty 223 00:10:28,200 --> 00:10:31,120 Speaker 3: to forty five percent. With two eighty e tax relief, 224 00:10:31,240 --> 00:10:33,520 Speaker 3: you're getting down to about ten percent. It differs, but 225 00:10:33,559 --> 00:10:37,760 Speaker 3: that's just the ballpark number. Now, what will President Trump 226 00:10:37,840 --> 00:10:40,320 Speaker 3: most likely do in this executive order? I think, and 227 00:10:40,360 --> 00:10:42,719 Speaker 3: this is what my note on Friday says, is that 228 00:10:42,800 --> 00:10:45,720 Speaker 3: President Trump will most likely directed the Department of Justice 229 00:10:45,760 --> 00:10:49,079 Speaker 3: and the DEEA to restart the process of where they 230 00:10:49,120 --> 00:10:53,080 Speaker 3: were in reschedulating. Because this process started under the Biden administration, 231 00:10:53,480 --> 00:10:56,160 Speaker 3: and they're about sixty to seventy percent chance of. 232 00:10:56,080 --> 00:10:58,560 Speaker 1: The way through, so it's not going to be all 233 00:10:58,600 --> 00:10:59,160 Speaker 1: that long. 234 00:10:59,320 --> 00:11:01,760 Speaker 3: If President True Trump says I want you to do this, 235 00:11:01,880 --> 00:11:04,320 Speaker 3: and I want you to do this in an expedient manner, 236 00:11:04,760 --> 00:11:06,400 Speaker 3: the DOJ and the DEA can do it. 237 00:11:06,480 --> 00:11:07,959 Speaker 1: They don't have to go back to the beginning. 238 00:11:08,679 --> 00:11:10,920 Speaker 3: So if this order comes out and says to the 239 00:11:10,920 --> 00:11:12,800 Speaker 3: Department of Justice, I want you to go do this, 240 00:11:12,880 --> 00:11:14,920 Speaker 3: and I want you to go quickly, meaning like forego 241 00:11:14,960 --> 00:11:17,480 Speaker 3: a hearing and just get straight to it, the DOJ 242 00:11:17,679 --> 00:11:19,880 Speaker 3: can and they most likely can get it done by 243 00:11:20,040 --> 00:11:23,320 Speaker 3: mid twenty twenty six. The reason why I'm not at 244 00:11:23,440 --> 00:11:25,440 Speaker 3: ninety percent a chance of this happening. I'm more of 245 00:11:25,480 --> 00:11:27,800 Speaker 3: a seventy percent chance or a sixty percent chance of 246 00:11:27,800 --> 00:11:30,640 Speaker 3: this happening is because we have seen time after time 247 00:11:30,720 --> 00:11:32,800 Speaker 3: after time where President Trump goes out there with these 248 00:11:32,840 --> 00:11:36,720 Speaker 3: positive statements and then the process slow walks and the 249 00:11:36,760 --> 00:11:40,640 Speaker 3: process slows down, and the ultimate question that a marijuana 250 00:11:40,679 --> 00:11:43,720 Speaker 3: investors should ask themselves about whether or not President Trump 251 00:11:43,760 --> 00:11:45,800 Speaker 3: should do this, and I think President Trump doing this 252 00:11:46,200 --> 00:11:49,240 Speaker 3: should be the base scenario here. But the reason why 253 00:11:49,320 --> 00:11:51,920 Speaker 3: I'm at sixty or seventy percent rather than ninety percent. 254 00:11:52,040 --> 00:11:55,120 Speaker 3: Is because the question is will this how President Trump 255 00:11:55,200 --> 00:11:59,199 Speaker 3: politically in mid twenty twenty six. If they need to 256 00:11:59,240 --> 00:12:02,120 Speaker 3: drive out younger voters, then you potentially move forward with this. 257 00:12:02,480 --> 00:12:05,160 Speaker 3: If you need to help drive out Republican base voters 258 00:12:05,160 --> 00:12:08,560 Speaker 3: that are a little overwhelmingly against marijuana, then maybe not. 259 00:12:09,280 --> 00:12:11,680 Speaker 3: So again, that's the question I'm going to be asking myself. 260 00:12:11,720 --> 00:12:13,800 Speaker 3: But right now, my base scenario is is that this 261 00:12:13,880 --> 00:12:16,000 Speaker 3: does get done because at the end of the day, 262 00:12:16,040 --> 00:12:18,600 Speaker 3: the president usually doesn't put out an order saying I 263 00:12:18,679 --> 00:12:22,600 Speaker 3: want this done and then eleven months later in an election, 264 00:12:23,040 --> 00:12:24,200 Speaker 3: nothing actually happens. 265 00:12:24,360 --> 00:12:27,200 Speaker 1: So again we'll stay tuned, but again keep in mind. 266 00:12:27,240 --> 00:12:30,000 Speaker 3: So I hope to the client I answered your question 267 00:12:30,040 --> 00:12:32,400 Speaker 3: in terms of where we are in terms of cannabis. 268 00:12:33,280 --> 00:12:35,680 Speaker 3: The last thing I want to do is really just 269 00:12:35,720 --> 00:12:38,000 Speaker 3: give you some thoughts of how to think about twenty 270 00:12:38,040 --> 00:12:41,400 Speaker 3: twenty six coming from Washington, because then it's an election year. 271 00:12:41,400 --> 00:12:43,280 Speaker 3: And I've said this before and I'll say it again. 272 00:12:43,760 --> 00:12:45,240 Speaker 3: For all four hundred and thirty five members of the 273 00:12:45,280 --> 00:12:47,560 Speaker 3: House and one third of the Senate, for every day 274 00:12:47,600 --> 00:12:50,079 Speaker 3: they spend in Washington in twenty twenty six is a 275 00:12:50,160 --> 00:12:52,800 Speaker 3: day that their opponent is back home campaigning against them, 276 00:12:53,040 --> 00:12:55,280 Speaker 3: and Congress largely does not want to be here in 277 00:12:55,360 --> 00:12:59,000 Speaker 3: election years, and with the Democrats doing exceedingly well in 278 00:12:59,080 --> 00:13:03,000 Speaker 3: Virginia and New Jersey, I heard this tidbit and I 279 00:13:03,000 --> 00:13:04,920 Speaker 3: have to give this a shout out to Henrietta tres 280 00:13:04,920 --> 00:13:07,600 Speaker 3: A Veta Partners, because she said that this is morning 281 00:13:07,600 --> 00:13:10,760 Speaker 3: on Bloomberg surveillance. Is that the average polling right now 282 00:13:10,760 --> 00:13:14,720 Speaker 3: for the Democrats is around plus fourteen point four. That's 283 00:13:14,800 --> 00:13:17,960 Speaker 3: tremendous for these off cycle elections. And the rule of 284 00:13:18,000 --> 00:13:21,440 Speaker 3: thumb going into an alert midterm cycle is that any 285 00:13:21,440 --> 00:13:24,920 Speaker 3: Republican member needs to win about plus seven in order 286 00:13:24,960 --> 00:13:27,680 Speaker 3: to keep their seat. That's something I hadn't heard before. 287 00:13:27,720 --> 00:13:30,760 Speaker 3: That's a pretty powerful message because plus seven. There's a 288 00:13:30,760 --> 00:13:32,920 Speaker 3: lot of Republican districts out there that are plus four, 289 00:13:32,960 --> 00:13:35,680 Speaker 3: plus five, plus six, and if you need to get 290 00:13:35,679 --> 00:13:38,920 Speaker 3: plus seven just to have a decent chance, that suggests 291 00:13:38,960 --> 00:13:40,800 Speaker 3: the Republicans are going to watch to spend a lot 292 00:13:40,800 --> 00:13:43,160 Speaker 3: of time on the campaign trail next year. And that's 293 00:13:43,200 --> 00:13:45,560 Speaker 3: why I think President Trump goes in twenty twenty six, 294 00:13:46,000 --> 00:13:48,240 Speaker 3: is that there's gonna be less focus in Congress. There's 295 00:13:48,240 --> 00:13:51,240 Speaker 3: gonna be less focus on legislation. In terms of a 296 00:13:51,280 --> 00:13:53,800 Speaker 3: reconciliation two point zero. We'll have our thoughts out in 297 00:13:53,800 --> 00:13:57,000 Speaker 3: the beginning of early next year. Really, the high level 298 00:13:57,000 --> 00:13:58,840 Speaker 3: message I can tell you is that if it was easy, 299 00:13:58,880 --> 00:14:01,640 Speaker 3: they would have done it in America one point zero. But 300 00:14:01,920 --> 00:14:03,960 Speaker 3: you know, yes, there is a chance for a reconciliation 301 00:14:04,000 --> 00:14:07,360 Speaker 3: two point zero bill next year, but Congress largely is 302 00:14:07,400 --> 00:14:09,120 Speaker 3: going to be silent and they're going to be on 303 00:14:09,160 --> 00:14:11,720 Speaker 3: the campaign trail. So twenty twenty six will be a 304 00:14:11,720 --> 00:14:15,319 Speaker 3: story of deregulation. Most of the regulatory leadership is in place, 305 00:14:15,400 --> 00:14:17,880 Speaker 3: Most of the regulatory leadership have already started. 306 00:14:17,559 --> 00:14:19,840 Speaker 1: Doing proposals, releasing proposals. 307 00:14:19,960 --> 00:14:22,440 Speaker 3: Those proposals are going to be finalized, and then additional 308 00:14:22,520 --> 00:14:25,360 Speaker 3: rounds of proposals are coming out next year. So lots 309 00:14:25,360 --> 00:14:27,720 Speaker 3: of regulatory work that's going to be done. And then 310 00:14:27,760 --> 00:14:30,840 Speaker 3: finally on the executive orders and tariffs, well, look, it 311 00:14:30,880 --> 00:14:33,080 Speaker 3: looks like we're not going to get a NIPA decision 312 00:14:33,120 --> 00:14:36,040 Speaker 3: from the Supreme Court in twenty twenty five. It's always 313 00:14:36,080 --> 00:14:38,640 Speaker 3: feasible that they could, but if they don't, look for 314 00:14:38,680 --> 00:14:41,960 Speaker 3: that in early twenty twenty six, and then the question comes, Yes, 315 00:14:42,080 --> 00:14:45,760 Speaker 3: President Trump has the ability to direct Section two thirty 316 00:14:45,800 --> 00:14:48,800 Speaker 3: two and Section three oh one investigations to replace these 317 00:14:48,840 --> 00:14:51,960 Speaker 3: AEPA tariffs, and Congress does have the ability to bring 318 00:14:52,040 --> 00:14:56,000 Speaker 3: AIPA back via reconciliation. Again a question for reconciliation two 319 00:14:56,000 --> 00:14:59,640 Speaker 3: point zero. But the political question is this, will President 320 00:14:59,640 --> 00:15:02,240 Speaker 3: Trump we want to actually move forward with these tariffs 321 00:15:02,640 --> 00:15:04,760 Speaker 3: because of how much they've proved to be unpopular in 322 00:15:04,800 --> 00:15:07,600 Speaker 3: twenty twenty five. You know, President Trump can always launch 323 00:15:07,680 --> 00:15:11,520 Speaker 3: these investigations and then have these investigations play out long term. 324 00:15:11,640 --> 00:15:13,600 Speaker 3: We don't have a view on this, but it's something 325 00:15:13,640 --> 00:15:15,520 Speaker 3: I want all my clients to just keep in mind, 326 00:15:15,640 --> 00:15:18,560 Speaker 3: because yes, President Trump has the ability to replicate a 327 00:15:18,600 --> 00:15:21,320 Speaker 3: lodge of these tarariffs. That the question is will he. 328 00:15:21,800 --> 00:15:23,720 Speaker 3: We'll have better answers to that in twenty twenty six, 329 00:15:23,760 --> 00:15:26,080 Speaker 3: as we do our outlooks so forth. But again I 330 00:15:26,120 --> 00:15:27,880 Speaker 3: want to say thank you very much for attending. We 331 00:15:27,960 --> 00:15:31,240 Speaker 3: really appreciate it. I wish you happy holidays and a 332 00:15:31,280 --> 00:15:33,760 Speaker 3: happy new Year. If you have any questions in the interim, 333 00:15:33,760 --> 00:15:36,040 Speaker 3: I'm actually not going anywhere. We're staying in DC for 334 00:15:36,120 --> 00:15:38,280 Speaker 3: the holidays this year, I'll be working for a bunch 335 00:15:38,280 --> 00:15:41,160 Speaker 3: of that, so again, feel free to reach out, feel 336 00:15:41,200 --> 00:15:42,120 Speaker 3: free to contact us. 337 00:15:42,160 --> 00:15:43,800 Speaker 1: If not, we'll see you in twenty twenty six. 338 00:15:43,920 --> 00:15:47,480 Speaker 2: Thank you, our thanks to Nathan Deed, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior 339 00:15:47,520 --> 00:15:50,520 Speaker 2: policy analyst, bringing you the latest installment of his weekly 340 00:15:50,680 --> 00:15:54,320 Speaker 2: Washington Policy Pulse. For more from BI or to join 341 00:15:54,400 --> 00:15:57,800 Speaker 2: this call live each week, you can email Nathan at 342 00:15:57,960 --> 00:16:01,280 Speaker 2: ndean at Bloomberg dot net. That's n d e a 343 00:16:01,600 --> 00:16:04,000 Speaker 2: n at Bloomberg dot net and come back to the 344 00:16:04,040 --> 00:16:07,480 Speaker 2: podcast later today for the latest edition of Balance of Power.