WEBVTT - How the Virus Will Be Different This Winter 0:00:01.160 --> 0:00:06.120 Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day one and 0:00:06.200 --> 0:00:11.680 eighty four since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. Today's 0:00:11.720 --> 0:00:16.239 main story. Scientists are learning more about how long the 0:00:16.320 --> 0:00:20.720 virus lingers in all kinds of places, from face masks 0:00:21.000 --> 0:00:26.599 to concrete sidewalks. They're also testing what weather conditions it 0:00:26.800 --> 0:00:31.920 likes best. Their findings could indicate we're in for a 0:00:32.080 --> 0:00:40.360 frightening winter. But first, here's what happened in virus news today. 0:00:44.360 --> 0:00:48.440 The newest COVID nineteen vaccine candidate to start human testing 0:00:48.960 --> 0:00:54.880 is the first where volunteers won't get a painful injection. Instead, 0:00:55.200 --> 0:01:00.360 they'll receive a spray through the nose. This week, China 0:01:00.440 --> 0:01:05.160 approved phase one human testing for a nasal spray vaccine 0:01:05.680 --> 0:01:10.600 developed by researchers at Jaman University, Hong Kong University, and 0:01:10.800 --> 0:01:17.880 vaccine maker Beijing one tie Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Intranasal spray 0:01:17.920 --> 0:01:21.240 is recommended for children as well as adults who want 0:01:21.280 --> 0:01:26.120 to avoid the more common needle injection. Scientists around the 0:01:26.120 --> 0:01:29.679 world are working on sprays as an alternative to muscle 0:01:29.760 --> 0:01:36.000 jabs for all sorts of vaccines. In the UK coronavirus 0:01:36.120 --> 0:01:40.280 is spreading exponentially again for the first time in months. 0:01:41.360 --> 0:01:45.520 It's prompting government representatives to urge the public to limit 0:01:45.760 --> 0:01:51.040 social activities. The government believes the so called R rate, 0:01:51.560 --> 0:01:54.720 the number of people that one infected person will pass 0:01:54.760 --> 0:01:59.600 the virus onto, is somewhere between one and one point two. 0:02:00.560 --> 0:02:05.480 It was last above one in March. A separate study 0:02:05.600 --> 0:02:09.639 by Imperial College found the virus is now doubling every 0:02:09.720 --> 0:02:16.680 seven to eight days. Finally, Discount clothing stores Century twenty 0:02:16.720 --> 0:02:20.639 one is the latest retail industry casualty of the virus, 0:02:21.400 --> 0:02:24.760 but the New York chain says it should have survived 0:02:24.800 --> 0:02:31.320 the pandemic because it had business interruption insurance. Instead, insurers 0:02:31.360 --> 0:02:35.160 refuse to pay, and Century twenty one is shutting down 0:02:35.520 --> 0:02:41.800 after almost sixty years in business. More than one thousand 0:02:41.800 --> 0:02:45.560 companies have found themselves in the same predicament and have sued, 0:02:46.120 --> 0:02:48.880 with cases playing out across the US and the UK. 0:02:50.320 --> 0:02:53.640 Insurers are arguing they don't have to pay out on 0:02:53.760 --> 0:02:59.480 pandemic claims, in part because the coronavirus didn't damage property. 0:03:05.320 --> 0:03:10.400 And now for today's main story, we're constantly learning about 0:03:10.400 --> 0:03:13.320 the stars Covey two virus, what it does to the 0:03:13.400 --> 0:03:16.640 human body, how it spreads, and why it seems to 0:03:16.680 --> 0:03:22.600 transmit more readily in certain situations compared with others. Knowing 0:03:22.680 --> 0:03:26.920 how long the virus lives under different conditions is crucial 0:03:27.160 --> 0:03:31.840 for understanding the drivers of transmission and how to stop it. 0:03:32.840 --> 0:03:37.440 Bloomberg Senior editor Jason Gale spoke with a scientist looking 0:03:37.480 --> 0:03:42.480 into some of these critical questions, and his answers don't 0:03:42.520 --> 0:03:49.240 bode well for winter in the northern hemisphere. Don't do 0:03:49.320 --> 0:03:52.440 you can Rist is the Regents Distinguished Professor at Kansas 0:03:52.480 --> 0:03:56.800 State University in Manhattan, Kansas. He's a German born veterinarian 0:03:56.840 --> 0:04:00.880 who's been studying viruses since the nineteen eighties when the 0:04:00.880 --> 0:04:03.760 pandemic hit. You're gonna on his team. We're trying to 0:04:03.800 --> 0:04:06.720 understand how a deadly pig virus could spread through a 0:04:06.760 --> 0:04:11.240 feed mill under various climatic conditions. We just finished a 0:04:11.280 --> 0:04:14.520 beautiful feet experiment and a feed mill, and we could. 0:04:14.600 --> 0:04:19.880 They told us stop, so you can change tech and 0:04:19.960 --> 0:04:23.800 got his team working on SASKOV two. Instead. They looked 0:04:23.839 --> 0:04:26.200 at how long the coronavirus can survive on a dozen 0:04:26.240 --> 0:04:30.159 different surfaces and in different weather They used an incubator 0:04:30.200 --> 0:04:33.320 to mimic the typical indoor environment as well as average 0:04:33.320 --> 0:04:36.160 weather conditions in the fall and in the summer, and 0:04:36.200 --> 0:04:38.880 so I as a virologist, I never thought I would 0:04:38.880 --> 0:04:43.600 go to a to the National Weather Service website and 0:04:43.640 --> 0:04:47.120 look up all these data for a city like ours, 0:04:47.160 --> 0:04:49.120 which is in the middle of the middle of the 0:04:49.200 --> 0:04:53.200 United States. Against team work with live coronavirus particles in 0:04:53.200 --> 0:04:57.120 a hermetically sealed bio containment lab to study weather affects. 0:04:57.960 --> 0:05:01.240 And then we tested the stuff city of sauce coos 0:05:01.480 --> 0:05:08.800 to on different surfaces, different steel surfaces, cardboard, plastics, and 0:05:09.800 --> 0:05:14.240 mass tivas, you name it. I think twelve different surfaces, cloths, 0:05:15.000 --> 0:05:19.200 the t shirts we bought, um and so on. And 0:05:19.240 --> 0:05:21.279 then we look what is the difference if you have 0:05:21.360 --> 0:05:25.800 a summer condition versus a spring condition, and the difference 0:05:25.920 --> 0:05:29.839 was significant. The measurement that Yogan's group focused on was 0:05:29.920 --> 0:05:33.760 the viruses biological half life, that's the time it takes 0:05:33.800 --> 0:05:36.520 for half of the virus particles or very once to die. 0:05:37.040 --> 0:05:40.240 The found that in summer the virus disintegrates and inactivates 0:05:40.320 --> 0:05:43.480 much faster. The results were released ahead of publication and 0:05:43.560 --> 0:05:46.719 peer review at the end of August, the house life 0:05:46.760 --> 0:05:49.839 is much shorter than in spring and fall. Now we 0:05:49.880 --> 0:05:52.640 are coming to the fault condition soon and the virus 0:05:52.640 --> 0:05:57.040 will stay stay around longer, and it will survive longer 0:05:57.200 --> 0:06:00.800 under these fault conditions on the same surf fish. I 0:06:00.880 --> 0:06:06.040 was surprised at our masks. The tiwex were on the top, 0:06:07.000 --> 0:06:10.240 and that's what we were all day. Is a synthetic 0:06:10.279 --> 0:06:13.080 polyethylene material that's used to make a lot of personal 0:06:13.120 --> 0:06:18.120 protective equipment. So for the time act, we had thirty 0:06:18.160 --> 0:06:22.320 one point eight hours half life in spring and fall, 0:06:23.279 --> 0:06:28.120 and in summer it was only four point six hours. 0:06:29.000 --> 0:06:33.479 Significant the sas COVT virus survived on the protective material 0:06:33.640 --> 0:06:38.200 almost seven times longer under fall conditions than summer. On 0:06:38.440 --> 0:06:43.080 ninety respirator masks, which are more protective than surgical masks, 0:06:43.560 --> 0:06:46.240 the virus survived for twenty seven point eight hours in 0:06:46.320 --> 0:06:50.520 cooler conditions versus four point four hours in summer. That's 0:06:50.560 --> 0:06:54.400 more than six times longer. And now we continue with 0:06:54.440 --> 0:06:59.000 the winter condition, and I believe it's worse than we 0:06:59.080 --> 0:07:01.960 saw the same or even worse than we saw with 0:07:02.920 --> 0:07:08.920 conditions so um and that's important for the epidemiologist and 0:07:09.000 --> 0:07:11.800 you know the people. Because we have to understand how 0:07:11.840 --> 0:07:15.040 long the virus survives in different environment and if the 0:07:15.120 --> 0:07:19.680 virus survives in a winter environment longer than the summer environment, 0:07:19.760 --> 0:07:24.120 we already know the infectious The pressure is higher in 0:07:24.160 --> 0:07:28.080 these under the under winter conditions compared to summer conditions, 0:07:28.120 --> 0:07:32.440 and vice versa. We had some famous predictions earlier in 0:07:32.480 --> 0:07:36.160 the pandemic that the virus would miraculously disappear in the 0:07:36.160 --> 0:07:40.559 Northern Hemisphere spring. Five months later, the virus is still 0:07:40.600 --> 0:07:44.360 infecting tens of thousands of people each day. That doesn't 0:07:44.360 --> 0:07:46.640 bode well for what might happen when the temperature and 0:07:46.720 --> 0:07:51.440 humidity drop and people are back gathering indoors. So if 0:07:51.480 --> 0:07:55.200 we couldn't control it very well during the summer, we 0:07:55.280 --> 0:07:57.960 are in for a big surprise. And now we go 0:07:58.600 --> 0:08:02.720 continue these studies not only in surfaces, but on biologic 0:08:03.200 --> 0:08:10.720 fluids and certain body fluids, tears, nasal secretions, alive, you're 0:08:10.880 --> 0:08:14.520 in feces, what what what is an environmental virus like 0:08:14.720 --> 0:08:18.400 and what is an environment the virus pussis like Youans 0:08:18.440 --> 0:08:22.320 group also study houseflies and their propensity to distribute the coronavirus. 0:08:22.720 --> 0:08:25.720 They'll examine whether these pesky insects that can flit from 0:08:25.720 --> 0:08:28.280 a soil tissue to let us leave to a mouth 0:08:28.360 --> 0:08:32.040 are capable of picking up infectious virus particles, and if so, 0:08:32.360 --> 0:08:35.400 how far and wide they can transport them? As gross 0:08:35.440 --> 0:08:37.840 as all these sounds that research will help us understand 0:08:37.880 --> 0:08:41.679 the coronavirus better and to inform policies and mitigation strategies 0:08:41.720 --> 0:08:45.959 that will prevent infections. What is virus niche? Where can 0:08:46.000 --> 0:08:49.959 they survive for a long time? And how can these 0:08:50.160 --> 0:08:53.679 this these niches play a role in the epidemiology and 0:08:53.720 --> 0:08:55.840 we are having cases where they don't know where it 0:08:55.840 --> 0:08:58.840 comes from because they were not in close contacts or 0:08:58.840 --> 0:09:01.760 what are the what the reasons for that? And we 0:09:01.840 --> 0:09:04.960 have to address that in a scientifically, well defined in 0:09:05.120 --> 0:09:08.800 in a well defined way, not just secually. And so 0:09:08.840 --> 0:09:11.280 we want to contribute a little bit to this kind 0:09:11.320 --> 0:09:15.480 of question which are critical for us to understand. The 0:09:15.520 --> 0:09:18.679 coronavirus has by no means given up all its secrets. 0:09:19.040 --> 0:09:23.000 So many mysteries remain. But with thousands of scientists around 0:09:23.000 --> 0:09:26.360 the world standing the way it spreads and mains, every day, 0:09:26.440 --> 0:09:30.400 we're gaining new clues and insights to help stop it. 0:09:38.000 --> 0:09:41.320 That was Jason Gale, and that's it for our show today. 0:09:42.000 --> 0:09:45.440 For coverage of the outbreak from one bureaus around the world, 0:09:45.800 --> 0:09:50.440 visit Bloomberg dot com slash Coronavirus and if you like 0:09:50.559 --> 0:09:53.280 the show, please leave us a review and a rating 0:09:53.600 --> 0:09:57.200 on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. It's the best way to 0:09:57.200 --> 0:10:01.920 help more listeners find our global reporting. Yeah. The Prognosis 0:10:02.000 --> 0:10:06.960 Alia edition is produced by Topher foreheads Jordan Gospoure, Magnus 0:10:07.040 --> 0:10:12.360 Hendrickson and me Laura Carlson. Today's main story was reported 0:10:12.360 --> 0:10:17.680 by Jason Gale. Original music by Leo Cedrin. Our editors 0:10:17.720 --> 0:10:22.559 are Rick Shine and Francesca Levi. Francesca Levi is Bloomberg's 0:10:22.559 --> 0:10:25.079 head of podcasts. Thanks for listening.