1 00:00:01,160 --> 00:00:06,120 Speaker 1: Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day one and 2 00:00:06,200 --> 00:00:11,680 Speaker 1: eighty four since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. Today's 3 00:00:11,720 --> 00:00:16,239 Speaker 1: main story. Scientists are learning more about how long the 4 00:00:16,320 --> 00:00:20,720 Speaker 1: virus lingers in all kinds of places, from face masks 5 00:00:21,000 --> 00:00:26,599 Speaker 1: to concrete sidewalks. They're also testing what weather conditions it 6 00:00:26,800 --> 00:00:31,920 Speaker 1: likes best. Their findings could indicate we're in for a 7 00:00:32,080 --> 00:00:40,360 Speaker 1: frightening winter. But first, here's what happened in virus news today. 8 00:00:44,360 --> 00:00:48,440 Speaker 1: The newest COVID nineteen vaccine candidate to start human testing 9 00:00:48,960 --> 00:00:54,880 Speaker 1: is the first where volunteers won't get a painful injection. Instead, 10 00:00:55,200 --> 00:01:00,360 Speaker 1: they'll receive a spray through the nose. This week, China 11 00:01:00,440 --> 00:01:05,160 Speaker 1: approved phase one human testing for a nasal spray vaccine 12 00:01:05,680 --> 00:01:10,600 Speaker 1: developed by researchers at Jaman University, Hong Kong University, and 13 00:01:10,800 --> 00:01:17,880 Speaker 1: vaccine maker Beijing one tie Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Intranasal spray 14 00:01:17,920 --> 00:01:21,240 Speaker 1: is recommended for children as well as adults who want 15 00:01:21,280 --> 00:01:26,120 Speaker 1: to avoid the more common needle injection. Scientists around the 16 00:01:26,120 --> 00:01:29,679 Speaker 1: world are working on sprays as an alternative to muscle 17 00:01:29,760 --> 00:01:36,000 Speaker 1: jabs for all sorts of vaccines. In the UK coronavirus 18 00:01:36,120 --> 00:01:40,280 Speaker 1: is spreading exponentially again for the first time in months. 19 00:01:41,360 --> 00:01:45,520 Speaker 1: It's prompting government representatives to urge the public to limit 20 00:01:45,760 --> 00:01:51,040 Speaker 1: social activities. The government believes the so called R rate, 21 00:01:51,560 --> 00:01:54,720 Speaker 1: the number of people that one infected person will pass 22 00:01:54,760 --> 00:01:59,600 Speaker 1: the virus onto, is somewhere between one and one point two. 23 00:02:00,560 --> 00:02:05,480 Speaker 1: It was last above one in March. A separate study 24 00:02:05,600 --> 00:02:09,639 Speaker 1: by Imperial College found the virus is now doubling every 25 00:02:09,720 --> 00:02:16,680 Speaker 1: seven to eight days. Finally, Discount clothing stores Century twenty 26 00:02:16,720 --> 00:02:20,639 Speaker 1: one is the latest retail industry casualty of the virus, 27 00:02:21,400 --> 00:02:24,760 Speaker 1: but the New York chain says it should have survived 28 00:02:24,800 --> 00:02:31,320 Speaker 1: the pandemic because it had business interruption insurance. Instead, insurers 29 00:02:31,360 --> 00:02:35,160 Speaker 1: refuse to pay, and Century twenty one is shutting down 30 00:02:35,520 --> 00:02:41,800 Speaker 1: after almost sixty years in business. More than one thousand 31 00:02:41,800 --> 00:02:45,560 Speaker 1: companies have found themselves in the same predicament and have sued, 32 00:02:46,120 --> 00:02:48,880 Speaker 1: with cases playing out across the US and the UK. 33 00:02:50,320 --> 00:02:53,640 Speaker 1: Insurers are arguing they don't have to pay out on 34 00:02:53,760 --> 00:02:59,480 Speaker 1: pandemic claims, in part because the coronavirus didn't damage property. 35 00:03:05,320 --> 00:03:10,400 Speaker 1: And now for today's main story, we're constantly learning about 36 00:03:10,400 --> 00:03:13,320 Speaker 1: the stars Covey two virus, what it does to the 37 00:03:13,400 --> 00:03:16,640 Speaker 1: human body, how it spreads, and why it seems to 38 00:03:16,680 --> 00:03:22,600 Speaker 1: transmit more readily in certain situations compared with others. Knowing 39 00:03:22,680 --> 00:03:26,920 Speaker 1: how long the virus lives under different conditions is crucial 40 00:03:27,160 --> 00:03:31,840 Speaker 1: for understanding the drivers of transmission and how to stop it. 41 00:03:32,840 --> 00:03:37,440 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Senior editor Jason Gale spoke with a scientist looking 42 00:03:37,480 --> 00:03:42,480 Speaker 1: into some of these critical questions, and his answers don't 43 00:03:42,520 --> 00:03:49,240 Speaker 1: bode well for winter in the northern hemisphere. Don't do 44 00:03:49,320 --> 00:03:52,440 Speaker 1: you can Rist is the Regents Distinguished Professor at Kansas 45 00:03:52,480 --> 00:03:56,800 Speaker 1: State University in Manhattan, Kansas. He's a German born veterinarian 46 00:03:56,840 --> 00:04:00,880 Speaker 1: who's been studying viruses since the nineteen eighties when the 47 00:04:00,880 --> 00:04:03,760 Speaker 1: pandemic hit. You're gonna on his team. We're trying to 48 00:04:03,800 --> 00:04:06,720 Speaker 1: understand how a deadly pig virus could spread through a 49 00:04:06,760 --> 00:04:11,240 Speaker 1: feed mill under various climatic conditions. We just finished a 50 00:04:11,280 --> 00:04:14,520 Speaker 1: beautiful feet experiment and a feed mill, and we could. 51 00:04:14,600 --> 00:04:19,880 Speaker 1: They told us stop, so you can change tech and 52 00:04:19,960 --> 00:04:23,800 Speaker 1: got his team working on SASKOV two. Instead. They looked 53 00:04:23,839 --> 00:04:26,200 Speaker 1: at how long the coronavirus can survive on a dozen 54 00:04:26,240 --> 00:04:30,159 Speaker 1: different surfaces and in different weather They used an incubator 55 00:04:30,200 --> 00:04:33,320 Speaker 1: to mimic the typical indoor environment as well as average 56 00:04:33,320 --> 00:04:36,160 Speaker 1: weather conditions in the fall and in the summer, and 57 00:04:36,200 --> 00:04:38,880 Speaker 1: so I as a virologist, I never thought I would 58 00:04:38,880 --> 00:04:43,600 Speaker 1: go to a to the National Weather Service website and 59 00:04:43,640 --> 00:04:47,120 Speaker 1: look up all these data for a city like ours, 60 00:04:47,160 --> 00:04:49,120 Speaker 1: which is in the middle of the middle of the 61 00:04:49,200 --> 00:04:53,200 Speaker 1: United States. Against team work with live coronavirus particles in 62 00:04:53,200 --> 00:04:57,120 Speaker 1: a hermetically sealed bio containment lab to study weather affects. 63 00:04:57,960 --> 00:05:01,240 Speaker 1: And then we tested the stuff city of sauce coos 64 00:05:01,480 --> 00:05:08,800 Speaker 1: to on different surfaces, different steel surfaces, cardboard, plastics, and 65 00:05:09,800 --> 00:05:14,240 Speaker 1: mass tivas, you name it. I think twelve different surfaces, cloths, 66 00:05:15,000 --> 00:05:19,200 Speaker 1: the t shirts we bought, um and so on. And 67 00:05:19,240 --> 00:05:21,279 Speaker 1: then we look what is the difference if you have 68 00:05:21,360 --> 00:05:25,800 Speaker 1: a summer condition versus a spring condition, and the difference 69 00:05:25,920 --> 00:05:29,839 Speaker 1: was significant. The measurement that Yogan's group focused on was 70 00:05:29,920 --> 00:05:33,760 Speaker 1: the viruses biological half life, that's the time it takes 71 00:05:33,800 --> 00:05:36,520 Speaker 1: for half of the virus particles or very once to die. 72 00:05:37,040 --> 00:05:40,240 Speaker 1: The found that in summer the virus disintegrates and inactivates 73 00:05:40,320 --> 00:05:43,480 Speaker 1: much faster. The results were released ahead of publication and 74 00:05:43,560 --> 00:05:46,719 Speaker 1: peer review at the end of August, the house life 75 00:05:46,760 --> 00:05:49,839 Speaker 1: is much shorter than in spring and fall. Now we 76 00:05:49,880 --> 00:05:52,640 Speaker 1: are coming to the fault condition soon and the virus 77 00:05:52,640 --> 00:05:57,040 Speaker 1: will stay stay around longer, and it will survive longer 78 00:05:57,200 --> 00:06:00,800 Speaker 1: under these fault conditions on the same surf fish. I 79 00:06:00,880 --> 00:06:06,040 Speaker 1: was surprised at our masks. The tiwex were on the top, 80 00:06:07,000 --> 00:06:10,240 Speaker 1: and that's what we were all day. Is a synthetic 81 00:06:10,279 --> 00:06:13,080 Speaker 1: polyethylene material that's used to make a lot of personal 82 00:06:13,120 --> 00:06:18,120 Speaker 1: protective equipment. So for the time act, we had thirty 83 00:06:18,160 --> 00:06:22,320 Speaker 1: one point eight hours half life in spring and fall, 84 00:06:23,279 --> 00:06:28,120 Speaker 1: and in summer it was only four point six hours. 85 00:06:29,000 --> 00:06:33,479 Speaker 1: Significant the sas COVT virus survived on the protective material 86 00:06:33,640 --> 00:06:38,200 Speaker 1: almost seven times longer under fall conditions than summer. On 87 00:06:38,440 --> 00:06:43,080 Speaker 1: ninety respirator masks, which are more protective than surgical masks, 88 00:06:43,560 --> 00:06:46,240 Speaker 1: the virus survived for twenty seven point eight hours in 89 00:06:46,320 --> 00:06:50,520 Speaker 1: cooler conditions versus four point four hours in summer. That's 90 00:06:50,560 --> 00:06:54,400 Speaker 1: more than six times longer. And now we continue with 91 00:06:54,440 --> 00:06:59,000 Speaker 1: the winter condition, and I believe it's worse than we 92 00:06:59,080 --> 00:07:01,960 Speaker 1: saw the same or even worse than we saw with 93 00:07:02,920 --> 00:07:08,920 Speaker 1: conditions so um and that's important for the epidemiologist and 94 00:07:09,000 --> 00:07:11,800 Speaker 1: you know the people. Because we have to understand how 95 00:07:11,840 --> 00:07:15,040 Speaker 1: long the virus survives in different environment and if the 96 00:07:15,120 --> 00:07:19,680 Speaker 1: virus survives in a winter environment longer than the summer environment, 97 00:07:19,760 --> 00:07:24,120 Speaker 1: we already know the infectious The pressure is higher in 98 00:07:24,160 --> 00:07:28,080 Speaker 1: these under the under winter conditions compared to summer conditions, 99 00:07:28,120 --> 00:07:32,440 Speaker 1: and vice versa. We had some famous predictions earlier in 100 00:07:32,480 --> 00:07:36,160 Speaker 1: the pandemic that the virus would miraculously disappear in the 101 00:07:36,160 --> 00:07:40,559 Speaker 1: Northern Hemisphere spring. Five months later, the virus is still 102 00:07:40,600 --> 00:07:44,360 Speaker 1: infecting tens of thousands of people each day. That doesn't 103 00:07:44,360 --> 00:07:46,640 Speaker 1: bode well for what might happen when the temperature and 104 00:07:46,720 --> 00:07:51,440 Speaker 1: humidity drop and people are back gathering indoors. So if 105 00:07:51,480 --> 00:07:55,200 Speaker 1: we couldn't control it very well during the summer, we 106 00:07:55,280 --> 00:07:57,960 Speaker 1: are in for a big surprise. And now we go 107 00:07:58,600 --> 00:08:02,720 Speaker 1: continue these studies not only in surfaces, but on biologic 108 00:08:03,200 --> 00:08:10,720 Speaker 1: fluids and certain body fluids, tears, nasal secretions, alive, you're 109 00:08:10,880 --> 00:08:14,520 Speaker 1: in feces, what what what is an environmental virus like 110 00:08:14,720 --> 00:08:18,400 Speaker 1: and what is an environment the virus pussis like Youans 111 00:08:18,440 --> 00:08:22,320 Speaker 1: group also study houseflies and their propensity to distribute the coronavirus. 112 00:08:22,720 --> 00:08:25,720 Speaker 1: They'll examine whether these pesky insects that can flit from 113 00:08:25,720 --> 00:08:28,280 Speaker 1: a soil tissue to let us leave to a mouth 114 00:08:28,360 --> 00:08:32,040 Speaker 1: are capable of picking up infectious virus particles, and if so, 115 00:08:32,360 --> 00:08:35,400 Speaker 1: how far and wide they can transport them? As gross 116 00:08:35,440 --> 00:08:37,840 Speaker 1: as all these sounds that research will help us understand 117 00:08:37,880 --> 00:08:41,679 Speaker 1: the coronavirus better and to inform policies and mitigation strategies 118 00:08:41,720 --> 00:08:45,959 Speaker 1: that will prevent infections. What is virus niche? Where can 119 00:08:46,000 --> 00:08:49,959 Speaker 1: they survive for a long time? And how can these 120 00:08:50,160 --> 00:08:53,679 Speaker 1: this these niches play a role in the epidemiology and 121 00:08:53,720 --> 00:08:55,840 Speaker 1: we are having cases where they don't know where it 122 00:08:55,840 --> 00:08:58,840 Speaker 1: comes from because they were not in close contacts or 123 00:08:58,840 --> 00:09:01,760 Speaker 1: what are the what the reasons for that? And we 124 00:09:01,840 --> 00:09:04,960 Speaker 1: have to address that in a scientifically, well defined in 125 00:09:05,120 --> 00:09:08,800 Speaker 1: in a well defined way, not just secually. And so 126 00:09:08,840 --> 00:09:11,280 Speaker 1: we want to contribute a little bit to this kind 127 00:09:11,320 --> 00:09:15,480 Speaker 1: of question which are critical for us to understand. The 128 00:09:15,520 --> 00:09:18,679 Speaker 1: coronavirus has by no means given up all its secrets. 129 00:09:19,040 --> 00:09:23,000 Speaker 1: So many mysteries remain. But with thousands of scientists around 130 00:09:23,000 --> 00:09:26,360 Speaker 1: the world standing the way it spreads and mains, every day, 131 00:09:26,440 --> 00:09:30,400 Speaker 1: we're gaining new clues and insights to help stop it. 132 00:09:38,000 --> 00:09:41,320 Speaker 1: That was Jason Gale, and that's it for our show today. 133 00:09:42,000 --> 00:09:45,440 Speaker 1: For coverage of the outbreak from one bureaus around the world, 134 00:09:45,800 --> 00:09:50,440 Speaker 1: visit Bloomberg dot com slash Coronavirus and if you like 135 00:09:50,559 --> 00:09:53,280 Speaker 1: the show, please leave us a review and a rating 136 00:09:53,600 --> 00:09:57,200 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. It's the best way to 137 00:09:57,200 --> 00:10:01,920 Speaker 1: help more listeners find our global reporting. Yeah. The Prognosis 138 00:10:02,000 --> 00:10:06,960 Speaker 1: Alia edition is produced by Topher foreheads Jordan Gospoure, Magnus 139 00:10:07,040 --> 00:10:12,360 Speaker 1: Hendrickson and me Laura Carlson. Today's main story was reported 140 00:10:12,360 --> 00:10:17,680 Speaker 1: by Jason Gale. Original music by Leo Cedrin. Our editors 141 00:10:17,720 --> 00:10:22,559 Speaker 1: are Rick Shine and Francesca Levi. Francesca Levi is Bloomberg's 142 00:10:22,559 --> 00:10:25,079 Speaker 1: head of podcasts. Thanks for listening.