WEBVTT - Are the weather apps getting worse? 0:00:00.200 --> 0:00:01.680 I'm Manny, I'm Noah. 0:00:01.720 --> 0:00:03.520 This is Steven and this is no such thing. 0:00:03.720 --> 0:00:06.320 The show where we settle our dumb arguments and yours 0:00:06.519 --> 0:00:09.880 by actually doing the research. On today's episode, are the 0:00:10.000 --> 0:00:15.360 weather apps actually getting worse? And how random is Spotify's 0:00:15.360 --> 0:00:16.120 shuffle feature? 0:00:16.480 --> 0:00:16.840 Really? 0:00:19.360 --> 0:00:22.920 I no, there's no no such thing, no such thing, 0:00:24.280 --> 0:00:26.040 no such thing. 0:00:28.040 --> 0:00:31.520 Such those such. 0:00:38.880 --> 0:00:41.559 So as the weather seems to be getting more and 0:00:41.720 --> 0:00:46.400 more unpredictable. With flash flooding overtaking our subways in New 0:00:46.479 --> 0:00:47.319 York City, you. 0:00:47.240 --> 0:00:50.760 Can see water spouting out of the walls, people walking 0:00:50.760 --> 0:00:53.800 across flooded platforms, and that rather dirty water. 0:00:54.120 --> 0:00:57.319 To the tragic, deadly floods in central Texas, we. 0:00:57.320 --> 0:00:59.960 Confirm that at least one hundred and thirty five people 0:01:00.360 --> 0:01:02.880 have been killed. This is in addition to the more 0:01:02.920 --> 0:01:06.880 than one hundred people who remain missing across several counties. 0:01:07.280 --> 0:01:10.200 This week, we are turning our attention to our weather 0:01:10.240 --> 0:01:13.880 apps and then nottedly. Many people in our lives have 0:01:13.959 --> 0:01:17.880 been complaining that the weather apps are just not accurate anymore. 0:01:18.959 --> 0:01:20.600 So we're going to get to the bottom of that 0:01:21.480 --> 0:01:25.560 and answer all your other questions about weather apps, including 0:01:25.560 --> 0:01:26.880 this one from my friend. 0:01:26.600 --> 0:01:30.400 Alek Okay, So I want to know why we as 0:01:30.440 --> 0:01:34.279 society can't come together and use feels like temperatures instead 0:01:34.319 --> 0:01:38.000 of actual temperatures as the default, because right now, when 0:01:38.000 --> 0:01:40.000 they tell me it's going to be sixty five degrees, 0:01:40.520 --> 0:01:42.880 I then have to go and do other homework on 0:01:43.120 --> 0:01:45.240 like how wendy is it going to be that day? 0:01:45.400 --> 0:01:47.600 And is it going to be really humid? And it 0:01:47.760 --> 0:01:50.400 seems like they have come up with one number that 0:01:50.520 --> 0:01:52.919 can give me the answer that I'm really looking for here, 0:01:53.280 --> 0:01:55.400 which is do I need a jacket that day? 0:01:55.720 --> 0:01:58.160 That's a great question, and it reminds me of when 0:01:58.200 --> 0:02:00.880 you guys used to make fun of me for saying 0:02:00.920 --> 0:02:05.200 that it feels quote unquote good outside like it feels good, 0:02:05.680 --> 0:02:10.360 and I maintain that many people say that maybe not 0:02:10.440 --> 0:02:14.920 from you know, Connecticut or Long Island, but I just 0:02:14.960 --> 0:02:16.760 wanted to get that off my chest. 0:02:17.000 --> 0:02:17.200 Yeah. 0:02:17.440 --> 0:02:19.960 I love the idea of like a Manny weather app that. 0:02:21.760 --> 0:02:26.800 It just says feels good. 0:02:27.520 --> 0:02:29.680 That's all I need to know. But just to be 0:02:29.760 --> 0:02:33.120 clear that the feels like it's a part of the app, 0:02:33.160 --> 0:02:34.880 I actually don't see it that often. It's a part 0:02:35.040 --> 0:02:36.560 is on the weather? Which app is. 0:02:36.520 --> 0:02:38.560 This all the apps kind of have it now, so 0:02:38.560 --> 0:02:41.280 there's usually app okay. 0:02:40.960 --> 0:02:42.400 And they don't really have much. 0:02:42.960 --> 0:02:44.040 So like, let's pull it up now. 0:02:44.080 --> 0:02:48.160 It's usually you know, the air temp which is up top, 0:02:50.000 --> 0:02:53.400 and then feels like it's usually below that or very deeper. 0:02:53.840 --> 0:02:56.200 So like this, this is the default Apple one. You 0:02:56.280 --> 0:02:58.920 really got to scroll here. So it's eighty seven right 0:02:58.960 --> 0:03:01.760 now from Brooklyn, and then we scroll all the way down, 0:03:01.880 --> 0:03:03.519 feels like ninety one. 0:03:04.080 --> 0:03:07.560 Okay, that is helpful. It's helpful, but I guess I 0:03:07.600 --> 0:03:10.920 do also want to know the real temperature. That's my 0:03:11.080 --> 0:03:13.240 guess is that y'all do you want to know the 0:03:13.240 --> 0:03:13.800 real temp? 0:03:14.040 --> 0:03:16.520 I don't care about the real temperature. It doesn't matter. 0:03:16.960 --> 0:03:19.400 This was especially true remember when we had those really 0:03:19.480 --> 0:03:20.440 really windy days. 0:03:21.000 --> 0:03:24.079 Oh yeah, it's it's yeah, it's in the hot weather. 0:03:24.160 --> 0:03:26.200 It's less of a thing I feel for us anymore. 0:03:26.240 --> 0:03:28.320 I mean, well, no, still thing, because. 0:03:28.080 --> 0:03:29.600 It can be in the cold. I feel like that 0:03:30.160 --> 0:03:32.760 the wind can change it so dramatic. 0:03:32.880 --> 0:03:35.000 They'll be like it's forty degrees out. I'm like, oh, 0:03:35.040 --> 0:03:36.840 this is kind of warm for winter. And then it 0:03:36.960 --> 0:03:38.720 was like the wind is making it feel like it's 0:03:38.720 --> 0:03:39.840 fifteen exactly. 0:03:40.080 --> 0:03:43.320 But it's like I don't hear what the still cold day? Okay, 0:03:43.360 --> 0:03:45.880 I can live in this versus like I'm about to 0:03:45.920 --> 0:03:46.160 die in. 0:03:46.160 --> 0:03:49.520 Free because why are we checking the weather? You're checking 0:03:49.520 --> 0:03:51.480 them whether to see what I gotta wear. 0:03:52.680 --> 0:03:54.680 Yeah, it's true for me, it's. 0:03:56.280 --> 0:03:59.800 We're not you know, like that's what most people checking 0:04:00.040 --> 0:04:01.240 other while they're checking the letter. 0:04:01.680 --> 0:04:04.520 I might wear something different in sixty five degree weather 0:04:04.560 --> 0:04:06.760 than you might. Yeah, I mean you still need to 0:04:06.800 --> 0:04:08.680 know what to wear for you. That's why I want 0:04:08.680 --> 0:04:10.840 to know the real temperature. Yeah, the real temperature is 0:04:10.840 --> 0:04:13.560 the real temperature, no matter who well look. 0:04:13.480 --> 0:04:14.560 At no, no, but no. 0:04:14.600 --> 0:04:17.000 But if it's all right it's sixty degrees but feels 0:04:17.000 --> 0:04:20.600 like ninety, yes, you you want to dress for ninety yes, yeah, but. 0:04:20.560 --> 0:04:22.560 It feels like it's actually better for you because you 0:04:22.600 --> 0:04:24.480 want to know what it's going to feel like, so 0:04:24.520 --> 0:04:25.640 you should know what to wear. 0:04:26.680 --> 0:04:27.960 The actual temperature doesn't know what. 0:04:28.040 --> 0:04:29.800 It actually make a difference if it's actually if it's 0:04:29.880 --> 0:04:31.160 actually sixty. 0:04:30.880 --> 0:04:33.880 Yeah, because I want to know if we've breaken up 0:04:33.880 --> 0:04:35.479 broken any records today. 0:04:35.360 --> 0:04:39.479 Okay, okay, that's different, that's what you're wearing, breaking records is. 0:04:42.560 --> 0:04:43.000 Over here. 0:04:45.240 --> 0:04:48.800 I have a map the historical data. I want to 0:04:48.800 --> 0:04:49.919 make sure that you can assume we. 0:04:49.920 --> 0:04:57.400 Are breaking a record every day. 0:04:58.640 --> 0:05:03.800 So I talked to meteorologists at the Weather Company, okay, 0:05:03.839 --> 0:05:06.520 which you may know for the Weather Channel brand. 0:05:07.000 --> 0:05:10.640 So my name is doctor Loriana Gaudett. I am a 0:05:10.680 --> 0:05:15.000 staff applied meteorological scientist at the Weather Company. I've worked 0:05:15.040 --> 0:05:19.599 primarily within our forecast sciences team, so I'm not operationally 0:05:19.640 --> 0:05:23.039 forecasting the weather, but i am working on the science 0:05:23.120 --> 0:05:25.920 behind the scenes per se to improve our forecasts. 0:05:26.080 --> 0:05:27.919 All right, So one of the first questions that we 0:05:28.040 --> 0:05:33.839 got on weather is this idea of real feel. Right, 0:05:33.880 --> 0:05:36.640 you get our actual temperature and then we get the 0:05:36.680 --> 0:05:38.600 real field tamp. So can we start by just having 0:05:38.640 --> 0:05:40.880 you break down what is the real field tamp? How 0:05:40.920 --> 0:05:41.720 is that calculated? 0:05:42.240 --> 0:05:45.719 So the real field temperature is more so known as 0:05:45.839 --> 0:05:50.240 the feels like temperature, and what it's composed of is 0:05:50.360 --> 0:05:53.960 a combination of the heat index and the windshiel temperature. 0:05:54.800 --> 0:05:59.440 The heat index itself is a combination of the temperature 0:05:59.640 --> 0:06:04.400 and the relative humidity and how those two interchangeably play 0:06:04.480 --> 0:06:08.560 together to affect how we feel when we're outside. And 0:06:08.600 --> 0:06:11.840 so if it's really humid outside, less of that sweat 0:06:11.960 --> 0:06:15.240 is able to evaporate off of our bodies, and we 0:06:15.320 --> 0:06:18.799 are less effectively cooling ourselves down, which makes it feel 0:06:18.920 --> 0:06:22.839 much warmer. As an example, if it's ninety degrees fahrenheit 0:06:22.920 --> 0:06:26.960 outside with a relative humidity of seventy percent, the heat 0:06:27.000 --> 0:06:30.240 index or the feels like temperature in those conditions is 0:06:30.240 --> 0:06:33.640 around one hundred and five degrees fahrenheit, which is very 0:06:33.680 --> 0:06:37.280 warm and it can become dangerous with heat stress impacts. 0:06:37.600 --> 0:06:40.159 And then on the other side of the temperature spectrum, 0:06:40.279 --> 0:06:43.080 the feels like kind of points to the wind chill temperature. 0:06:43.560 --> 0:06:46.880 So this time we're considering the effect of wind speed 0:06:47.120 --> 0:06:50.719 on temperature, and the reason that that's important is because 0:06:50.760 --> 0:06:55.080 the wind is effectively transporting the heat away from our body, 0:06:55.400 --> 0:06:58.640 which is cooling down our body or our skin temperature, 0:06:58.680 --> 0:07:02.280 and then over time core body temperature, which can also 0:07:02.360 --> 0:07:06.800 come dangerous in its own way through frostbite or through 0:07:06.839 --> 0:07:10.960 hypothermia effects. So another example here is that if you 0:07:10.960 --> 0:07:13.480 have a temperature of thirty degrees fahrenheit and a wind 0:07:13.560 --> 0:07:16.600 speed of fifteen miles an hour, your wind chill or 0:07:16.640 --> 0:07:20.760 feels like temperature would be nineteen degrees fahrenheit, give or take. 0:07:30.080 --> 0:07:33.960 Interesting. So basically like seventy degrees with no humidity feels 0:07:33.960 --> 0:07:36.920 a lot different than seventy degrees with humidity, and some 0:07:37.160 --> 0:07:39.440 you know, X amount of miles per hour. 0:07:39.280 --> 0:07:42.880 Wind exactly to take away I got from talking to her, 0:07:42.920 --> 0:07:46.280 it was like, the feels like takes into account how 0:07:46.400 --> 0:07:50.840 the temperature affects our body, and it's not just all right, 0:07:50.880 --> 0:07:52.280 here's the air temp. 0:07:52.560 --> 0:07:54.720 Yeah, it's not so abstract. I guess it's like kind 0:07:54.720 --> 0:07:57.520 of an algorithm basically. Yeah, and yeah, it's about how 0:07:58.240 --> 0:08:00.280 you know your sweat's going to be a vap rated 0:08:00.360 --> 0:08:04.760 or not or whatever. That's it's more thorough than I thought. 0:08:04.840 --> 0:08:06.800 Yeah, I kind of thought. A scientist and a lab 0:08:06.840 --> 0:08:08.080 coat walked outside, I was. 0:08:08.080 --> 0:08:12.840 Like, okay, sixty five, Yeah, we wan'll make them feel 0:08:12.880 --> 0:08:13.280 good today. 0:08:14.800 --> 0:08:17.760 But something is interesting about feels like, which we talked 0:08:17.760 --> 0:08:20.280 about a little bit already, is that someone like manny, 0:08:21.360 --> 0:08:27.000 if it's seventy tract Yeah, if it's seventy seven degrees outside, 0:08:27.080 --> 0:08:28.240 man's complaining as hot? 0:08:29.560 --> 0:08:32.880 Yeah, well, not that it's hot, it's too It's like, 0:08:33.160 --> 0:08:34.520 does it's warmer than I prefer? 0:08:34.559 --> 0:08:35.160 It feels bad? 0:08:35.160 --> 0:08:39.840 It feels bad, bad, whereas with us that's seventy seven 0:08:39.880 --> 0:08:41.320 temperature bad, not bad. 0:08:41.440 --> 0:08:43.280 So well, I. 0:08:43.200 --> 0:08:44.559 Don't know, Okay, don't put that on that. 0:08:44.600 --> 0:08:46.440 Okay, what do you what's what seventy seven. 0:08:46.200 --> 0:08:48.079 Of you that could get pretty hot? 0:08:48.160 --> 0:08:48.400 Okay? 0:08:48.720 --> 0:08:51.760 Seventy three is comfy, okay, And I want a little 0:08:51.800 --> 0:08:52.640 bit of clouds. 0:08:53.800 --> 0:08:57.400 And speaking of shade versus sun, when they take the 0:08:57.480 --> 0:08:59.959 temperature outside, did you know that they're taking into shade? 0:09:00.400 --> 0:09:03.040 Whoa, oh, why is that? 0:09:03.200 --> 0:09:03.720 I did not know. 0:09:04.040 --> 0:09:05.240 Well, we're gonna find out. 0:09:06.400 --> 0:09:09.760 So temperature and heat index are recorded in the shade, 0:09:10.320 --> 0:09:15.280 and so if oh, yeah, what I know, Yes, it's 0:09:15.320 --> 0:09:18.480 it's super surprising. But the reason is we don't want 0:09:18.520 --> 0:09:21.960 the thermometer that's measuring the temperature to heat up and 0:09:22.040 --> 0:09:25.520 not be able to actually tell us what the air 0:09:25.600 --> 0:09:28.880 temperature is. We want that not the temperature with the thermometer. 0:09:29.559 --> 0:09:34.439 So when you were outside doing whatever activity in the sun, 0:09:34.720 --> 0:09:37.360 it's going to feel warmer than the reported air temperature 0:09:37.440 --> 0:09:39.760 and even the heat index. So that's important to keep 0:09:39.800 --> 0:09:43.839 in mind. And then the other component is that scientists 0:09:43.880 --> 0:09:48.000 when they were deriving these heat indices and the wind chill, 0:09:48.400 --> 0:09:52.880 they had to make certain approximations and assumptions. So some 0:09:52.960 --> 0:09:55.880 of those involve like how tall are you, how much 0:09:55.920 --> 0:09:58.280 do you weigh, how much do you sweat, what kind 0:09:58.280 --> 0:10:00.360 of clothes are you're wearing, so on and so forth, 0:10:00.440 --> 0:10:04.280 and that obviously can't account for each of our unique 0:10:04.760 --> 0:10:10.760 body compositions and circumstances, but it's our best general approximation 0:10:11.280 --> 0:10:14.720 for what you might experience when you walk out the door. 0:10:15.400 --> 0:10:18.280 The shade thing really blew my mind because I'm every 0:10:18.280 --> 0:10:20.360 time I go outside and I'm in the shade, I'm like, oh, 0:10:20.400 --> 0:10:23.520 this is cooler than what's the app because I'm in 0:10:23.520 --> 0:10:27.800 the shade. But that's the best case scenario. You're only 0:10:27.800 --> 0:10:32.560 going to get hotter if it's ninety degrees. That means 0:10:32.600 --> 0:10:33.960 if you're in the sun, it's hotter than that. 0:10:34.520 --> 0:10:38.079 Yeah. Yeah, if you're walking around, you're gonna be sucked 0:10:38.080 --> 0:10:39.000 there sometimes. 0:10:39.160 --> 0:10:39.880 Yeah. 0:10:40.360 --> 0:10:42.800 There's so many variables, which is why I just try 0:10:42.840 --> 0:10:46.040 to distill them all into good or bad. Yeah. 0:10:46.040 --> 0:10:46.160 I know. 0:10:46.320 --> 0:10:48.640 Now I'm kind of like many systems well because it's like, well, 0:10:48.679 --> 0:10:55.679 this makes me want them to have shade, Yeah, because 0:10:55.679 --> 0:10:56.240 I need to know. 0:10:56.559 --> 0:10:58.440 You open the weather app. It's just like an Excel 0:10:58.520 --> 0:10:59.120 sph Yeah. 0:10:59.600 --> 0:11:02.200 Ever dial in and then you dial in your outfit yeah, 0:11:02.280 --> 0:11:06.080 and your skin tone calculator. 0:11:06.280 --> 0:11:06.640 I mean. 0:11:09.000 --> 0:11:10.240 Imagine you have an or a ring. 0:11:10.600 --> 0:11:13.080 Yeah, that's that's a lot of data. 0:11:13.320 --> 0:11:13.920 Yeah. 0:11:14.200 --> 0:11:16.600 And then you didn't tell weather you take a selfie 0:11:17.040 --> 0:11:17.840 it skins your clothes. 0:11:17.840 --> 0:11:19.600 You don't even need to take a selfie, yeah, right, 0:11:19.679 --> 0:11:20.040 your phone. 0:11:20.760 --> 0:11:23.840 Yeah, and and you just exists and Peter Tiel buys 0:11:23.880 --> 0:11:25.800 all of this data. Yeah, exactly, and then he but 0:11:25.840 --> 0:11:28.400 he tells you it's going to be only seventy two today, 0:11:28.480 --> 0:11:30.040 or it's only going to feel like seventy. 0:11:29.720 --> 0:11:32.040 Two when we look at the weather app. Besides many 0:11:32.080 --> 0:11:35.000 lying and saying he wants to look at historical data, 0:11:35.440 --> 0:11:37.520 we're looking at it to see what we should wear 0:11:37.600 --> 0:11:39.760 to go outside. Do I need to bring an umbrella? 0:11:39.840 --> 0:11:41.920 Why don't we have this as the default? If I 0:11:41.960 --> 0:11:43.800 open up the app, I want to see feels like 0:11:43.880 --> 0:11:45.400 and then if I want to search for the actual 0:11:45.400 --> 0:11:47.480 air temp, I could find that lower down. 0:11:47.480 --> 0:11:48.560 Why are we doing the reverse? 0:11:52.800 --> 0:11:55.960 We take a certain approach within our Weather Channel app, 0:11:56.520 --> 0:12:00.600 and we've supply both temperatures, so not just the temperature, 0:12:00.679 --> 0:12:03.280 but also the fields like temperature, so that you can 0:12:03.320 --> 0:12:06.600 have both data points and use those to make decisions 0:12:06.640 --> 0:12:09.160 about how you want to plan your day or go 0:12:09.200 --> 0:12:12.360 about your day. But yeah, it's a really good question 0:12:12.559 --> 0:12:14.400 because it gets down to the core of like the 0:12:14.480 --> 0:12:21.880 human experience of course, but there's other impacts and implications 0:12:22.040 --> 0:12:26.079 of the temperature that also don't relate to humans. So 0:12:26.320 --> 0:12:29.280 some of those might be like if a farmer, for example, 0:12:29.440 --> 0:12:32.400 is trying to figure out when to plant their crop 0:12:32.520 --> 0:12:35.720 or protect their crop, they are looking at the actual temperature. 0:12:36.040 --> 0:12:39.480 So that's what our weather forecast models are actually outputting, 0:12:39.600 --> 0:12:43.120 is the real air temperature, and that's what we are 0:12:43.400 --> 0:12:47.440 measuring and looking at when we are monitoring the climate, 0:12:47.480 --> 0:12:52.400 for example, and it allows us to compare the observations 0:12:52.400 --> 0:12:58.079 of temperature across the country, across the world, and over time. Whereas, 0:12:58.120 --> 0:13:00.800 like with everything that we talked about with the feels 0:13:00.840 --> 0:13:04.520 like temperature, there's a lot of approximations that are being used, 0:13:04.520 --> 0:13:09.880 and so some weather services given the same environmental setup 0:13:10.160 --> 0:13:12.640 might come up with different values. That makes it really 0:13:12.679 --> 0:13:17.520 difficult for that inter comparison component. But if you yourself, 0:13:17.559 --> 0:13:21.040 as the user of a weather app find that the 0:13:21.640 --> 0:13:24.120 feels like temperature gives you everything that you need to 0:13:24.160 --> 0:13:27.559 know you can set that as your own to fault temperature. 0:13:27.640 --> 0:13:29.800 But we just don't want to make that assumption for 0:13:29.880 --> 0:13:30.880 all of our users. 0:13:32.200 --> 0:13:35.840 So they're just very considerate of me at this point. 0:13:36.600 --> 0:13:40.880 The thing that impacts most of us would be it 0:13:40.880 --> 0:13:44.560 feels like temperature that should be to default. Make everybody 0:13:44.559 --> 0:13:45.600 else look for the other stuff. 0:13:45.640 --> 0:13:46.840 Please contact your company. 0:13:47.160 --> 0:13:50.360 I guess do you feel I understand all everything that 0:13:50.400 --> 0:13:53.080 she said. When I'm looking at my app, I'm not 0:13:53.200 --> 0:13:57.040 looking for climate. You know, over the last ten years, 0:13:57.080 --> 0:13:59.320 I don't have any crops. I guess I can do 0:13:59.360 --> 0:14:01.199 it within my own but I feel like as a 0:14:01.240 --> 0:14:04.839 country we need to we neither do real feel I'm 0:14:04.840 --> 0:14:06.800 not saying get rid of the real number. I'm just 0:14:06.800 --> 0:14:07.920 saying put that lower. 0:14:08.360 --> 0:14:09.880 See why I can't? 0:14:10.200 --> 0:14:11.480 Why not just side by side? 0:14:11.679 --> 0:14:17.439 Oh slash yeah, pretty much? Okay, big one, I mean, 0:14:17.640 --> 0:14:21.200 pick whichever one you want, big one then basically an 0:14:21.320 --> 0:14:24.200 arrow or slash, Yeah, basically, and you just know that 0:14:24.720 --> 0:14:27.480 you just know, okay, this is you know, you know 0:14:27.640 --> 0:14:29.280 the real thing. And here's the thing. It wouldn't take 0:14:29.320 --> 0:14:31.600 up that much space. They're digits and like the numbers 0:14:31.600 --> 0:14:35.640 are hopefully not Yeah, yeah, hopefully four digits. You're look 0:14:35.640 --> 0:14:36.120 at that total. 0:14:36.360 --> 0:14:38.600 I'm fine with the normal one. I'm fine with the 0:14:38.640 --> 0:14:39.480 regular Yeah. 0:14:39.520 --> 0:14:42.520 My main concern with these things is doing an umbrella 0:14:42.640 --> 0:14:44.280 or not, which I forget to look for most of 0:14:44.320 --> 0:14:44.520 the time. 0:14:44.560 --> 0:14:49.000 Anymore, Speaking of rain, Manny, do you want to explain 0:14:49.080 --> 0:14:51.120 this Twitter argument that people have been having. 0:14:54.920 --> 0:14:57.160 When it's raining or when it might looks like it 0:14:57.240 --> 0:14:59.920 might rain. You go on the app and says, let's say, 0:15:00.040 --> 0:15:05.000 for example, thirty five percent. Doesn't say what the thirty 0:15:05.040 --> 0:15:07.040 five percent is. So some people think that it's thirty 0:15:07.040 --> 0:15:09.680 five percent chance it's going to rain where you're standing. 0:15:10.480 --> 0:15:14.480 Other people think it's in a rain on thirty five 0:15:14.600 --> 0:15:19.080 percent of the area around you, yes, and a third 0:15:19.080 --> 0:15:21.600 group of people think that's effectively the same thing. 0:15:23.840 --> 0:15:25.640 Well, well what do you what do you guys think? 0:15:26.280 --> 0:15:29.720 Before I did this interview, Yeah, my thought was it's 0:15:29.720 --> 0:15:32.160 a thirty five percent chance it's going to rain. 0:15:32.280 --> 0:15:34.400 That's not that's my thought too, because the area doesn't 0:15:34.400 --> 0:15:36.200 make because it's like, well, what's what area? 0:15:36.320 --> 0:15:38.640 A lot of people, a lot of people online, these 0:15:38.640 --> 0:15:40.800 are not experts, but they were like, no, that is 0:15:40.840 --> 0:15:42.800 what they're telling you. Well, what did you think I 0:15:42.920 --> 0:15:44.520 was thought, thirty five percent chance is going to rain. 0:15:44.560 --> 0:15:47.800 Chance, Yeah, where you are? I agree, That's what I'm 0:15:47.800 --> 0:15:49.880 looking at, and that's how I feel like my lived 0:15:49.920 --> 0:15:51.040 experience is. 0:15:51.240 --> 0:15:53.800 You know, it's like, well, that's where it gets tricky. 0:15:53.880 --> 0:15:55.840 It's it's never right to me. 0:15:56.200 --> 0:15:58.920 But yeah, I always assumed it's basically there is a 0:15:58.960 --> 0:16:04.520 percentage of chance that it will rain. Not whatever area 0:16:04.720 --> 0:16:07.280 I'm taking in, it's going to cover sixty percent of this. 0:16:07.480 --> 0:16:08.360 Yeah, yeah, that. 0:16:08.280 --> 0:16:10.840 Doesn't really that would never cross our behind me that much. 0:16:12.920 --> 0:16:16.840 So this is a common area of confusion for users, 0:16:16.880 --> 0:16:20.360 and even in our own field of meteorology, it can 0:16:20.400 --> 0:16:24.320 be really hard to pinpoint what we are actually communicating 0:16:24.400 --> 0:16:29.360 with probability of precipitation or pop In my experience and 0:16:29.440 --> 0:16:33.560 knowledge base, I think both of those interpretations are true 0:16:33.720 --> 0:16:37.120 in their own right, which of course makes it even 0:16:37.240 --> 0:16:40.920 more confusing. But I can I can share from the 0:16:40.960 --> 0:16:45.320 Weather Channel app perspective, the way that we're communicating it 0:16:45.360 --> 0:16:50.000 is really in your surrounding area. What is the likelihood 0:16:50.240 --> 0:16:55.360 of precipitation or of rain impacting you within whatever time 0:16:55.440 --> 0:16:59.400 frame you're interested in, So, whether it's today, the next hour, 0:17:00.120 --> 0:17:05.440 fifteen minutes, and less so the amount of area that 0:17:05.640 --> 0:17:08.920 is going to be impacted. A couple misconceptions that also 0:17:08.920 --> 0:17:13.879 come up to are about the intensity of precipitation from pop. 0:17:14.119 --> 0:17:17.320 So sometimes people will see like, oh, there's a ninety 0:17:17.320 --> 0:17:20.320 percent chance of rain, it's going to be a downpour. 0:17:21.000 --> 0:17:26.280 We are indicating the likelihood of rain, of measurable rain, 0:17:26.520 --> 0:17:29.679 any rain, and so generally it has nothing to do 0:17:29.760 --> 0:17:32.520 with the intensity of that precipitation, which is important to 0:17:32.600 --> 0:17:35.880 keep in mind. And then the other component two is 0:17:36.200 --> 0:17:39.639 you know, sometimes people think, Okay, there's a fifty percent 0:17:39.720 --> 0:17:42.080 chance of pop in New York City, so only half 0:17:42.119 --> 0:17:45.080 of the day will be wet, And again you could 0:17:45.080 --> 0:17:47.639 have that fifty percent chance, there might only be a 0:17:47.640 --> 0:17:49.800 couple hours that are impacted, and then you have a 0:17:49.840 --> 0:17:53.320 beautiful remainder of the day. I think that it really 0:17:53.400 --> 0:17:58.120 lays on us meteorologists to make sure that we're communicating 0:17:58.680 --> 0:18:03.240 what that likely hood and probability means, especially if it 0:18:03.280 --> 0:18:06.800 does vary, you know, from a news broadcaster or a 0:18:06.840 --> 0:18:09.920 meteorologist who's on TV trying to communicate the likelihood of rain, 0:18:10.040 --> 0:18:12.800 to a push alert from your weather app telling you 0:18:12.840 --> 0:18:15.600 that there's rain coming within the next thirty minutes. 0:18:17.600 --> 0:18:21.800 That is really funny because the idea that the percent 0:18:21.920 --> 0:18:26.639 chance is the total coverage is such a like, actually, 0:18:26.800 --> 0:18:29.600 I'm smart, and this is what they're really saying, fools 0:18:29.600 --> 0:18:32.000 in conversation. I've heard it so many times and it's 0:18:32.040 --> 0:18:32.520 just wrong. 0:18:32.720 --> 0:18:35.480 And then I mean it's kind of fascinating, like people 0:18:35.520 --> 0:18:37.840 are just taking this and twisting it in any direction 0:18:37.880 --> 0:18:40.359 where it's like, okay, ten percent, that's ten percent of 0:18:40.400 --> 0:18:44.480 the day. Yeah, so yeah, okay, so whatever ten percent 0:18:44.520 --> 0:18:47.240 of twenty four hours is. It's like, yeah, thinking of 0:18:47.280 --> 0:18:49.280 all the different ways to map it out, it's kind 0:18:49.320 --> 0:18:51.639 of that's actually like a SAT question or something. 0:18:51.720 --> 0:18:53.480 Yeah, I heard the rain is only coming from ten 0:18:53.520 --> 0:18:54.400 percent of the clouds. 0:18:54.520 --> 0:18:57.520 Yeah, exactly. Yeah, but there. 0:18:57.840 --> 0:18:59.719 I thought it was interesting that they're kind of they 0:18:59.720 --> 0:19:02.080 could both be right depending on your weather. 0:19:02.280 --> 0:19:03.480 You need explanation. 0:19:03.840 --> 0:19:05.520 I mean, I think that you know, the apps that 0:19:05.560 --> 0:19:06.639 we're looking at or telling us, I. 0:19:07.600 --> 0:19:13.440 Would hope so frankly, I think that you know, maybe 0:19:13.480 --> 0:19:15.439 they could do a better job than of getting the 0:19:15.440 --> 0:19:17.600 word out there hopefully. You know, we're going to do 0:19:17.600 --> 0:19:21.080 our part today with our you know, hundreds of thousands 0:19:21.080 --> 0:19:21.680 of listeners. 0:19:22.800 --> 0:19:28.200 Some would say millions, So yeah, you could argue that millions. 0:19:28.240 --> 0:19:32.040 Maybe all right, we are going to take a quick 0:19:32.160 --> 0:19:34.520 break and when we get back, we are going to 0:19:34.600 --> 0:19:39.560 find out are the weather apps actually getting worse? And 0:19:40.119 --> 0:19:51.360 it's Trump to blame. So in last week's mail bag, 0:19:51.359 --> 0:19:54.000 we were debating who gets the right of way between 0:19:54.119 --> 0:19:56.720 a school bus with the stop sign out, an ambulance 0:19:56.800 --> 0:20:00.399 with the siren on, and a funeral procession, and from 0:20:00.400 --> 0:20:02.359 North Carolina called in with this insight. 0:20:02.640 --> 0:20:06.919 I am a state wide law enforcement officer here in 0:20:06.920 --> 0:20:12.480 North Carolina. If I am running lights and sirens, I 0:20:12.560 --> 0:20:13.960 am allowed. 0:20:13.400 --> 0:20:15.119 To go through a soft sign. 0:20:15.760 --> 0:20:19.879 People legally have to yield to me. But if I 0:20:19.960 --> 0:20:23.040 run a soft sign and hit someone, it is still 0:20:23.119 --> 0:20:26.640 my fault, and I, as a driver, would. 0:20:26.520 --> 0:20:30.600 Not only be responsible to my agency, but I could 0:20:30.680 --> 0:20:37.720 also be personally legally financially responsible funeral processions. 0:20:37.760 --> 0:20:39.560 You guys are correct, that is a courtesy. 0:20:39.600 --> 0:20:41.280 It's not a legal thing, and but it is it 0:20:41.359 --> 0:20:41.760 drive me. 0:20:41.720 --> 0:20:44.120 Grace to get down here in the South, they love 0:20:44.160 --> 0:20:45.440 them at funeral profession. 0:20:45.840 --> 0:20:48.520