WEBVTT - Sam Bankman-Fried and Matt Levine on How the Crypto Market Really Works

0:00:10.600 --> 0:00:14.080
<v Speaker 1>Hello, and welcome to another episode of the All Thoughts podcast.

0:00:14.160 --> 0:00:18.320
<v Speaker 1>I'm Tracy Allaway and I'm Joe. WI isn't all so, Joe?

0:00:18.520 --> 0:00:21.040
<v Speaker 1>It's been um. I mean, I think it's been a

0:00:21.120 --> 0:00:24.560
<v Speaker 1>kind of a tough couple of weeks for crypto. We

0:00:24.680 --> 0:00:28.840
<v Speaker 1>had the price of bitcoin go down below thirty thousand

0:00:29.320 --> 0:00:32.160
<v Speaker 1>UM at one point, but it's shot up since then.

0:00:32.159 --> 0:00:35.040
<v Speaker 1>I think it's closer to But on the other hand,

0:00:35.840 --> 0:00:40.800
<v Speaker 1>we had some interesting developments around the sort of crypto ecosystem,

0:00:40.880 --> 0:00:44.920
<v Speaker 1>around the market structure aspect of crypto. Well, it's interesting

0:00:45.000 --> 0:00:47.279
<v Speaker 1>because all right, we did get this like sort of

0:00:47.600 --> 0:00:49.639
<v Speaker 1>bare market, and I don't know if it's still in one,

0:00:49.680 --> 0:00:53.560
<v Speaker 1>because as you mentioned, it's bounced back. But unlike say,

0:00:53.720 --> 0:00:56.520
<v Speaker 1>you know, the sell off in or at the end

0:00:56.560 --> 0:01:00.520
<v Speaker 1>of Seen, it doesn't feel like there's any slowdown at

0:01:00.560 --> 0:01:04.000
<v Speaker 1>all in the pace of investment into this space, Like

0:01:04.400 --> 0:01:06.680
<v Speaker 1>where is at the end of you know, is like

0:01:06.720 --> 0:01:08.639
<v Speaker 1>all right, well, maybe this whole thing was a bubble

0:01:08.760 --> 0:01:12.279
<v Speaker 1>or a fad. This time it feels like no one's

0:01:12.319 --> 0:01:15.360
<v Speaker 1>thinking that it's like full steam ahead on various business

0:01:15.400 --> 0:01:18.560
<v Speaker 1>plans and so forth, at least in these early months

0:01:18.880 --> 0:01:22.280
<v Speaker 1>since the peak back in April or May. Yes, indeed,

0:01:22.319 --> 0:01:26.120
<v Speaker 1>And as a sign of that investment interest, we just

0:01:26.240 --> 0:01:29.920
<v Speaker 1>had the crypto exchange f t X, which we've talked

0:01:29.959 --> 0:01:33.360
<v Speaker 1>about on the show before it completed. I think it

0:01:33.400 --> 0:01:37.360
<v Speaker 1>was a Series B fundraising of nine hundred million that

0:01:37.640 --> 0:01:41.800
<v Speaker 1>valued the company at eighteen billions. So to your point,

0:01:41.959 --> 0:01:45.759
<v Speaker 1>I mean, the crypto ecosystem itself is clearly being valued

0:01:45.800 --> 0:01:50.640
<v Speaker 1>by investors as a future investment. Eighteen billions pretty big, right,

0:01:50.680 --> 0:01:52.560
<v Speaker 1>And of course f t X is the exchange we

0:01:52.680 --> 0:01:56.200
<v Speaker 1>talked to the to the founder, it was not that

0:01:56.360 --> 0:01:59.280
<v Speaker 1>long ago. I think it was either maybe like March

0:01:59.400 --> 0:02:04.840
<v Speaker 1>or April, and it feels like his star, his significance

0:02:04.840 --> 0:02:07.960
<v Speaker 1>within crypto has only probably like gone up like ten

0:02:08.160 --> 0:02:11.040
<v Speaker 1>x uh since like literally like the last three or

0:02:11.040 --> 0:02:14.000
<v Speaker 1>four months. Yeah, I think that's fair. So we're gonna

0:02:14.040 --> 0:02:16.440
<v Speaker 1>be talking to the f t X founder of Sam

0:02:16.480 --> 0:02:19.800
<v Speaker 1>Bankman Freed again on this episode, but we wanted to

0:02:19.840 --> 0:02:23.120
<v Speaker 1>do it a little bit differently this time, so we've

0:02:23.160 --> 0:02:27.320
<v Speaker 1>also brought on Bloomberg columnist Matt Levine, one of the best,

0:02:27.440 --> 0:02:30.680
<v Speaker 1>probably the best financial writer out there if we're being honest,

0:02:31.040 --> 0:02:33.600
<v Speaker 1>and he's going to join the conversation and we're just

0:02:33.639 --> 0:02:36.160
<v Speaker 1>going to talk about what ft X has been doing

0:02:36.320 --> 0:02:39.079
<v Speaker 1>and where it might go from here. Okay, wait, let's

0:02:39.120 --> 0:02:42.000
<v Speaker 1>do it all right, Uh, Sam and Matt, thank you

0:02:42.080 --> 0:02:44.600
<v Speaker 1>so much for coming on the show. Yeah, thanks for

0:02:44.639 --> 0:02:49.480
<v Speaker 1>having us, Thanks for having me. So, Sam, nine nine

0:02:49.919 --> 0:02:52.600
<v Speaker 1>million dollars is you know a lot of money. What

0:02:52.680 --> 0:02:55.280
<v Speaker 1>are you going to be doing with that? Yeah? So

0:02:55.520 --> 0:02:59.040
<v Speaker 1>it's um, I think we're looking good on the yacht front.

0:02:59.040 --> 0:03:03.919
<v Speaker 1>Don't need any more are but no I acquisitions to

0:03:03.960 --> 0:03:07.120
<v Speaker 1>serve the based answer? And you know, I think especially

0:03:07.160 --> 0:03:09.520
<v Speaker 1>as crypto starts to bleed into the rest of the

0:03:09.560 --> 0:03:13.360
<v Speaker 1>financial ecosystem, there's more and more points of overlap and

0:03:13.560 --> 0:03:18.040
<v Speaker 1>potential uh you know, potential collaboration could expand what you

0:03:18.200 --> 0:03:21.120
<v Speaker 1>mean by that? So what do you say crypto is

0:03:21.160 --> 0:03:25.080
<v Speaker 1>going to bleed more into the rest of the financial system?

0:03:25.160 --> 0:03:28.120
<v Speaker 1>How much of that is? Okay, we know that all

0:03:28.160 --> 0:03:32.200
<v Speaker 1>of the big banks or traditional brokerages they're like thinking

0:03:32.240 --> 0:03:34.840
<v Speaker 1>about like, well, what is their crypto play? How are

0:03:34.840 --> 0:03:37.360
<v Speaker 1>they going to get in on this action? How much

0:03:37.400 --> 0:03:39.640
<v Speaker 1>of it is? Are you talking about that? And every

0:03:39.680 --> 0:03:43.120
<v Speaker 1>day there's some new uh announcement from like a legacy

0:03:43.120 --> 0:03:45.960
<v Speaker 1>institution about something they're doing in the space, as opposed

0:03:46.000 --> 0:03:52.680
<v Speaker 1>to crypto itself encroaching on areas of business, lines of

0:03:52.720 --> 0:03:56.080
<v Speaker 1>business that we think of as traditional, where perhaps crypto

0:03:56.160 --> 0:03:59.640
<v Speaker 1>has a potential to userve some of that activity. It's

0:03:59.680 --> 0:04:02.720
<v Speaker 1>pride merrily so far been the former. And some of

0:04:02.760 --> 0:04:05.480
<v Speaker 1>this is the you know, sort of traditional highly regulated

0:04:05.520 --> 0:04:08.640
<v Speaker 1>financial institutions starting to get their toes in. Some of

0:04:08.680 --> 0:04:11.240
<v Speaker 1>this is also fintech, and so you know, I mean

0:04:11.400 --> 0:04:13.920
<v Speaker 1>when people say fintech, they're sort of an increasing chance

0:04:13.960 --> 0:04:16.440
<v Speaker 1>that they're referring to, you know, a crypto company over time.

0:04:16.480 --> 0:04:18.920
<v Speaker 1>But but even outside that, many of the definitely not

0:04:19.000 --> 0:04:23.040
<v Speaker 1>crypto companies in fintech, a very large fraction of those

0:04:23.440 --> 0:04:27.719
<v Speaker 1>are reaching out to you talk about like like and

0:04:27.880 --> 0:04:31.520
<v Speaker 1>imagine that you're some customer facing fintech business right and

0:04:31.800 --> 0:04:34.599
<v Speaker 1>you know you don't offer a bitcoin right now? Like, what,

0:04:34.600 --> 0:04:37.080
<v Speaker 1>what do you think the most frequent requests you get

0:04:37.080 --> 0:04:40.880
<v Speaker 1>from your customers is? But he's definitely to add bitcoin, Matt,

0:04:40.960 --> 0:04:44.479
<v Speaker 1>what's your understanding of what FTX actually does? Because you know,

0:04:44.560 --> 0:04:46.800
<v Speaker 1>Joe and I have spoken to sam Um a few

0:04:46.839 --> 0:04:49.280
<v Speaker 1>times before. Now I think we have a decent idea

0:04:49.400 --> 0:04:53.400
<v Speaker 1>but what's your impression of it? I like this question

0:04:56.480 --> 0:05:00.680
<v Speaker 1>exposing my ignorance question. Uh, my understanding is FTX is

0:05:00.720 --> 0:05:02.680
<v Speaker 1>like one of the biggest crypto exchanges and that it's

0:05:02.720 --> 0:05:08.400
<v Speaker 1>a particularly like uh, derivatives and structured product focus crypto exchange.

0:05:09.440 --> 0:05:13.280
<v Speaker 1>Is that like about right? Yeah, that's that's that's pretty good.

0:05:13.320 --> 0:05:16.120
<v Speaker 1>And you know, we're one of the newer exchange, certainly

0:05:16.120 --> 0:05:18.440
<v Speaker 1>the newest of the big ones, you know, started up

0:05:18.440 --> 0:05:20.840
<v Speaker 1>a couple of years ago, and more than half our

0:05:20.880 --> 0:05:23.520
<v Speaker 1>volume historic based been derivatives. I think the big reason

0:05:23.600 --> 0:05:26.159
<v Speaker 1>for that is basically, like they're the harder products to

0:05:26.200 --> 0:05:28.359
<v Speaker 1>get right. And you know, I think a lot of

0:05:28.360 --> 0:05:32.760
<v Speaker 1>the exchanges had serious issues when we started up and uh,

0:05:33.000 --> 0:05:36.719
<v Speaker 1>and those issues just became much more transparent and played

0:05:36.720 --> 0:05:39.520
<v Speaker 1>a much more devastating role when they tried to manage

0:05:39.560 --> 0:05:42.400
<v Speaker 1>you know, margin and drivetives than with SPOT products, which

0:05:42.400 --> 0:05:45.560
<v Speaker 1>are relatively simpler, although we do have a pretty wide

0:05:45.640 --> 0:05:48.240
<v Speaker 1>range of products on the site. So I mean, I

0:05:48.279 --> 0:05:52.800
<v Speaker 1>saw Sam someone made a joke on Twitter the other

0:05:52.920 --> 0:05:55.719
<v Speaker 1>day that like, you know, you weren't even like a

0:05:55.760 --> 0:06:00.240
<v Speaker 1>real player or active in the industry, like you know,

0:06:00.680 --> 0:06:03.360
<v Speaker 1>the last bullmarket. I mean I don't think that's totally true,

0:06:03.360 --> 0:06:05.800
<v Speaker 1>because on the last episode you told us the story

0:06:06.120 --> 0:06:09.880
<v Speaker 1>of the U the Japan Premium, which is an incredible

0:06:09.880 --> 0:06:12.279
<v Speaker 1>story and people should listen to it. But so much

0:06:12.320 --> 0:06:15.440
<v Speaker 1>of your success really has come like in the last

0:06:15.800 --> 0:06:17.760
<v Speaker 1>year or year and a half, and now f t

0:06:17.960 --> 0:06:21.080
<v Speaker 1>X is this huge thing. What do you explain, like,

0:06:21.160 --> 0:06:23.240
<v Speaker 1>what was it? It just sort of broadly and then

0:06:23.240 --> 0:06:25.600
<v Speaker 1>we'll get into like the details, but you sort of

0:06:25.640 --> 0:06:28.560
<v Speaker 1>mentioned some of the operational aspects of running a derivatives

0:06:28.600 --> 0:06:31.080
<v Speaker 1>exchange versus just a pure spot exchange. You know, in

0:06:31.080 --> 0:06:34.960
<v Speaker 1>the US people really know coin based globally people really

0:06:35.040 --> 0:06:38.440
<v Speaker 1>know buyinance. But what was it in your view that

0:06:38.640 --> 0:06:40.480
<v Speaker 1>you know, you have this thing, Okay, we're going to

0:06:40.560 --> 0:06:43.840
<v Speaker 1>create a product for traders. What was it that f

0:06:44.000 --> 0:06:47.920
<v Speaker 1>t X had that really allowed it to just explode

0:06:48.080 --> 0:06:52.839
<v Speaker 1>seemingly out of nowhere, uh, in the last year or so. Yeah,

0:06:52.920 --> 0:06:54.360
<v Speaker 1>And I think a lot of these things were things

0:06:54.360 --> 0:06:56.880
<v Speaker 1>you might even just assume with TRUF all exchanges things

0:06:56.880 --> 0:07:00.080
<v Speaker 1>for two, but that isn't And so one example is

0:07:00.080 --> 0:07:03.159
<v Speaker 1>when you look at margining, the norm in crypto was

0:07:03.200 --> 0:07:05.320
<v Speaker 1>you isolate everything, And what that means is if you

0:07:05.360 --> 0:07:08.599
<v Speaker 1>want to go trade if against USD futures, you have

0:07:08.680 --> 0:07:11.000
<v Speaker 1>to go like by Spot etherory and move it into

0:07:11.000 --> 0:07:15.400
<v Speaker 1>your USD futures wallet and use that as margin. Trade

0:07:15.440 --> 0:07:17.560
<v Speaker 1>your each features. If you then want to trade you know,

0:07:17.960 --> 0:07:21.040
<v Speaker 1>Bitcoin against US Spot, you have to go move that

0:07:21.120 --> 0:07:23.600
<v Speaker 1>e thout sell it for US or Bitcoin, move that

0:07:23.600 --> 0:07:27.160
<v Speaker 1>into your US you know Bitcoin Spot margin wallet and

0:07:27.240 --> 0:07:29.160
<v Speaker 1>use this collateral there. You had a margin you know,

0:07:29.360 --> 0:07:32.720
<v Speaker 1>managing literally hundreds of wallets on one venue, each of

0:07:32.720 --> 0:07:36.560
<v Speaker 1>which basically only supports one product um as this massive

0:07:36.600 --> 0:07:38.920
<v Speaker 1>minigame to manage to be liquidated on any one of

0:07:38.920 --> 0:07:41.280
<v Speaker 1>them independent if your collateral on others, you have no

0:07:41.400 --> 0:07:44.640
<v Speaker 1>flexibility on margining. The liquidation engines were not up to

0:07:44.640 --> 0:07:47.120
<v Speaker 1>the task, Like they're losing millions of dollars per day

0:07:47.160 --> 0:07:50.760
<v Speaker 1>of customer assets um to failing to liquid eight in time.

0:07:51.040 --> 0:07:54.200
<v Speaker 1>You know, there was just like match engines fault fell

0:07:54.240 --> 0:07:57.040
<v Speaker 1>over whenever markets got volatile, and so it's just like

0:07:57.560 --> 0:08:00.000
<v Speaker 1>all over the place that was like not a great

0:08:00.080 --> 0:08:02.640
<v Speaker 1>customer experience, and you know in sort of like really

0:08:02.680 --> 0:08:07.160
<v Speaker 1>significant ways. So this is like raised the question that

0:08:07.200 --> 0:08:08.840
<v Speaker 1>I have. So you come from a sort of like

0:08:09.400 --> 0:08:12.840
<v Speaker 1>high tech, traditional finance background, you're a chain street and

0:08:12.960 --> 0:08:17.120
<v Speaker 1>like one story you could tell here is like this

0:08:17.200 --> 0:08:21.440
<v Speaker 1>is about like applying sort of best practices from traditional

0:08:21.480 --> 0:08:25.080
<v Speaker 1>finance to like the wild West of crypto exchanges, where well,

0:08:25.280 --> 0:08:28.200
<v Speaker 1>portfolio margining is a totally well understood thing, but to

0:08:28.360 --> 0:08:31.800
<v Speaker 1>portfolio margining for crypto products. Um, But I'm curious, Like

0:08:32.040 --> 0:08:33.520
<v Speaker 1>I've always thought that like a lot of the appeal

0:08:33.600 --> 0:08:35.760
<v Speaker 1>of crypto is like all these people from like backgrounds

0:08:35.760 --> 0:08:38.720
<v Speaker 1>like yours, who like work in like the coal mines

0:08:38.800 --> 0:08:42.920
<v Speaker 1>of market structure and whatever and have like a list

0:08:42.960 --> 0:08:45.800
<v Speaker 1>of things or like this is this like traditional financial

0:08:45.840 --> 0:08:47.480
<v Speaker 1>thing is stupid and I could do it better if

0:08:47.480 --> 0:08:49.760
<v Speaker 1>I were designing the system from scratch. And you kind

0:08:49.760 --> 0:08:51.640
<v Speaker 1>of went and designed the system from scratch, right like

0:08:51.640 --> 0:08:54.000
<v Speaker 1>you started like a big exchange in a in a

0:08:54.000 --> 0:08:57.079
<v Speaker 1>product universe that is not really beholden to any traditional

0:08:57.760 --> 0:09:01.199
<v Speaker 1>rules or you know, customs. And I'm wondering, like are

0:09:01.240 --> 0:09:04.440
<v Speaker 1>there places where you were like like what we do

0:09:04.520 --> 0:09:06.000
<v Speaker 1>here at chanceer it or what we do and like,

0:09:06.040 --> 0:09:08.280
<v Speaker 1>you know, the stock market is really dumb. Like if

0:09:08.280 --> 0:09:10.320
<v Speaker 1>I were doing it, I'd do it differently where you

0:09:10.320 --> 0:09:13.680
<v Speaker 1>actually went and did that at f t X totally,

0:09:14.000 --> 0:09:16.120
<v Speaker 1>and I do think the answer is really sort if

0:09:16.160 --> 0:09:17.920
<v Speaker 1>you look at each place and you're like, who's doing

0:09:17.920 --> 0:09:19.920
<v Speaker 1>it right? You know, it's sort of like the crypto norm, correct,

0:09:19.960 --> 0:09:22.680
<v Speaker 1>the crypto exchanged norm, or like the traditional exchanged harm

0:09:22.679 --> 0:09:24.440
<v Speaker 1>and kind of sometimes it was one and sometimes it

0:09:24.480 --> 0:09:26.800
<v Speaker 1>was the other. So like some examples of places where

0:09:26.800 --> 0:09:29.440
<v Speaker 1>I think crypto has like at least an argument for

0:09:29.520 --> 0:09:31.679
<v Speaker 1>doing it right now, I personally think they probably are.

0:09:32.080 --> 0:09:34.720
<v Speaker 1>One of these is moving funds around. This is obviously

0:09:34.800 --> 0:09:36.400
<v Speaker 1>one of the first things that comes up with crypto,

0:09:36.480 --> 0:09:38.839
<v Speaker 1>But I at least sort of just assumed it was

0:09:38.880 --> 0:09:42.000
<v Speaker 1>easy to get your money wherever you wanted before I'd

0:09:42.040 --> 0:09:44.679
<v Speaker 1>ever tried to do that. But as soon as I

0:09:44.679 --> 0:09:46.920
<v Speaker 1>I tried to ever move money around, I realized how

0:09:46.960 --> 0:09:49.760
<v Speaker 1>difficult it was. Anyone who sent an int like an

0:09:49.800 --> 0:09:53.320
<v Speaker 1>international wire transfers immediately regrets having to do it. And

0:09:53.360 --> 0:09:54.760
<v Speaker 1>then you look at like a c H and credit

0:09:54.800 --> 0:09:58.440
<v Speaker 1>card payments to take months to finalize, and so either

0:09:58.600 --> 0:10:01.600
<v Speaker 1>these all these limits huge, he's on them. There's so

0:10:01.640 --> 0:10:04.040
<v Speaker 1>many roadblocks in the system because like there's two months

0:10:04.040 --> 0:10:07.000
<v Speaker 1>of fraud risk there, and so just doing things like

0:10:07.080 --> 0:10:09.599
<v Speaker 1>funding your account or what do you what if that

0:10:09.679 --> 0:10:12.520
<v Speaker 1>even needs to find your account on traditional exchanges is

0:10:12.559 --> 0:10:15.920
<v Speaker 1>like very messy and can take a while, whereas on crypto,

0:10:16.240 --> 0:10:18.520
<v Speaker 1>like the goals to make it as clean as possible,

0:10:18.520 --> 0:10:21.760
<v Speaker 1>and when you're sending cryptocurrencies in that's obviously like basically

0:10:21.760 --> 0:10:24.920
<v Speaker 1>instant on sort of you know, the wire transferred time scale.

0:10:25.200 --> 0:10:29.120
<v Speaker 1>But even with with fiat sort the emphasis is like anyone,

0:10:29.160 --> 0:10:31.360
<v Speaker 1>whether you're you have two hundred dollars to your name

0:10:31.440 --> 0:10:33.280
<v Speaker 1>or you're the world's second biggest d F t F,

0:10:33.920 --> 0:10:37.120
<v Speaker 1>you can go to the website, submit kyc infote, create

0:10:37.160 --> 0:10:39.600
<v Speaker 1>an account directly with the exchange, and then there's like

0:10:39.640 --> 0:10:41.920
<v Speaker 1>the deposit button and it has like as many options

0:10:41.920 --> 0:10:44.040
<v Speaker 1>as possible for how you can fund your account. And

0:10:44.040 --> 0:10:47.280
<v Speaker 1>so it's just like a massively easier process. And you know,

0:10:47.360 --> 0:10:49.760
<v Speaker 1>when when you're serve in crypto, what you quickly realize

0:10:49.800 --> 0:10:51.600
<v Speaker 1>like you never want to send FIAT that's like the

0:10:51.640 --> 0:10:54.440
<v Speaker 1>hardest thing to do, and like everything gets settled with

0:10:54.480 --> 0:10:56.760
<v Speaker 1>stable points if if you can get away with it.

0:10:57.360 --> 0:11:01.240
<v Speaker 1>Another thing I'll bring up is it's different nature of

0:11:01.320 --> 0:11:03.240
<v Speaker 1>the products. So when you think of what he's like

0:11:03.360 --> 0:11:06.720
<v Speaker 1>Nazi or cem me or something like they're mostly matching engines,

0:11:07.120 --> 0:11:09.720
<v Speaker 1>like you know, they sort of match bids and offers

0:11:09.720 --> 0:11:13.079
<v Speaker 1>from like a few institutions against each other, but they

0:11:13.080 --> 0:11:15.720
<v Speaker 1>don't do anything else in the trade process. Right, There's

0:11:15.760 --> 0:11:19.400
<v Speaker 1>like separate companies that do like custody clearing, m ok

0:11:19.600 --> 0:11:23.920
<v Speaker 1>I see customer on boarding, branding, advertising, mobile app, website

0:11:24.160 --> 0:11:28.080
<v Speaker 1>a p I. All of those are like different companies,

0:11:28.080 --> 0:11:30.520
<v Speaker 1>and you end up with like, you know, ten companies

0:11:30.520 --> 0:11:32.640
<v Speaker 1>stacked together. And first of all, that means you have

0:11:32.679 --> 0:11:35.320
<v Speaker 1>ten rounds of fees stacked together on trades. But but

0:11:35.400 --> 0:11:37.360
<v Speaker 1>second of all, it means you if this really fractured

0:11:37.400 --> 0:11:42.520
<v Speaker 1>experience where you know, access to the actual ultimate liquidity

0:11:42.600 --> 0:11:45.520
<v Speaker 1>and order books is basically restricted to like a very

0:11:45.600 --> 0:11:49.040
<v Speaker 1>very small number of institutional trading firms going through some

0:11:49.160 --> 0:11:51.920
<v Speaker 1>prime broker, and everyone else sort of has this like

0:11:52.360 --> 0:11:55.760
<v Speaker 1>very abstracted away experience going through you know, two peef

0:11:55.800 --> 0:11:58.400
<v Speaker 1>off firms in a dark pool and a broker. You know,

0:11:58.559 --> 0:12:02.000
<v Speaker 1>so somewhere in the middle. In crypto exchanges are full

0:12:02.000 --> 0:12:05.400
<v Speaker 1>stack products and so everything I mentioned from you know,

0:12:05.920 --> 0:12:09.480
<v Speaker 1>rereading an account, submitting m l k C information, depositing funds,

0:12:10.000 --> 0:12:14.000
<v Speaker 1>um using wold lack gooey website submitting in order, all

0:12:14.120 --> 0:12:17.040
<v Speaker 1>those go straight through the exchange. And so you have

0:12:17.160 --> 0:12:21.640
<v Speaker 1>like small retail customers and giant HFD firms all having

0:12:21.640 --> 0:12:25.160
<v Speaker 1>the same exact access to the ultimate you know, order

0:12:25.200 --> 0:12:27.560
<v Speaker 1>books and and and system. And I think that creates

0:12:27.960 --> 0:12:32.240
<v Speaker 1>in some cases and much much more streamlined and frankly

0:12:32.280 --> 0:12:37.600
<v Speaker 1>fair experience. So can I ask just on the margining idea.

0:12:37.840 --> 0:12:40.240
<v Speaker 1>So one of the things you did, um, I think

0:12:40.240 --> 0:12:42.320
<v Speaker 1>it was just in the past week er two, but

0:12:42.440 --> 0:12:45.600
<v Speaker 1>you changed, um the amount of leverage that you allow

0:12:45.880 --> 0:12:49.280
<v Speaker 1>on the platform. So I think the maximum people can

0:12:49.320 --> 0:12:52.680
<v Speaker 1>do now is twenty times, which seems like a lot

0:12:52.800 --> 0:12:55.520
<v Speaker 1>to me still, but like it's a vast reduction from

0:12:55.520 --> 0:12:58.560
<v Speaker 1>what it was. Uh, walk us through the thought process

0:12:58.640 --> 0:13:02.119
<v Speaker 1>on that, And would you consider changing the margin requirements

0:13:02.160 --> 0:13:07.080
<v Speaker 1>as well? Yeah, so I guess maybe on your last point,

0:13:07.240 --> 0:13:09.320
<v Speaker 1>we talked about changing that the marginal requirements, and when

0:13:09.320 --> 0:13:11.800
<v Speaker 1>we talked about margin leverage, we usually think of them

0:13:11.880 --> 0:13:14.079
<v Speaker 1>is basically the same thing, like one is just one

0:13:14.120 --> 0:13:16.720
<v Speaker 1>divided by the other one. And yes there's like initial

0:13:16.800 --> 0:13:19.360
<v Speaker 1>versus maintenance, like how big of a position you're allowed

0:13:19.400 --> 0:13:22.160
<v Speaker 1>to put on versus at what point your account actually

0:13:22.160 --> 0:13:26.520
<v Speaker 1>starts getting liquidated. But but this this sort of affected

0:13:26.559 --> 0:13:28.600
<v Speaker 1>both of those um and so you know you have

0:13:28.640 --> 0:13:32.319
<v Speaker 1>to post five percent margin now on all positions, and

0:13:32.480 --> 0:13:34.599
<v Speaker 1>at least in many cases much more than that I

0:13:34.640 --> 0:13:37.960
<v Speaker 1>would deserve, equivalent to saying twenty leverage. The thought process

0:13:37.960 --> 0:13:39.959
<v Speaker 1>behind it, the first thing is that it's actually not

0:13:40.080 --> 0:13:42.360
<v Speaker 1>that big of a change for the site. Less than

0:13:42.440 --> 0:13:45.480
<v Speaker 1>one percent of the volume was trading with leverage higher

0:13:45.520 --> 0:13:48.920
<v Speaker 1>than that before. And the reason is that basically your

0:13:48.920 --> 0:13:51.240
<v Speaker 1>margin requirements go up as your position size goes up.

0:13:51.400 --> 0:13:52.840
<v Speaker 1>So if you want to put on a big position,

0:13:52.920 --> 0:13:54.520
<v Speaker 1>you need to post way wey weay more than that

0:13:54.720 --> 0:13:57.720
<v Speaker 1>collateral anyway, and you're only able to put on really

0:13:57.760 --> 0:14:00.760
<v Speaker 1>tiny positions with very high leverage. And so it's served

0:14:00.800 --> 0:14:03.079
<v Speaker 1>by definition, not where most of the volume or open

0:14:03.120 --> 0:14:06.760
<v Speaker 1>interest or users were coming from. And so so it

0:14:06.880 --> 0:14:09.480
<v Speaker 1>wasn't like a big part of the exchange. It wasn't

0:14:09.600 --> 0:14:12.480
<v Speaker 1>super relevant to to us or to most of our

0:14:12.559 --> 0:14:16.520
<v Speaker 1>users or their experience. It's also not super economically like

0:14:16.960 --> 0:14:19.600
<v Speaker 1>useful frankly, like when when you talk about you know,

0:14:19.760 --> 0:14:22.960
<v Speaker 1>hedging something or having on some spread or or one

0:14:23.000 --> 0:14:24.200
<v Speaker 1>of the many reasons that you might want to do

0:14:24.240 --> 0:14:28.200
<v Speaker 1>a margin trade. If you get down to one collateral left,

0:14:28.600 --> 0:14:30.800
<v Speaker 1>you can't really use that to hedge something because you

0:14:30.840 --> 0:14:34.520
<v Speaker 1>can get liquidated in like a print, like in like

0:14:34.600 --> 0:14:37.480
<v Speaker 1>fifteen seconds. You know, markets could move enough that you're

0:14:37.480 --> 0:14:40.480
<v Speaker 1>out of margin, and so it doesn't make sense for

0:14:40.560 --> 0:14:43.640
<v Speaker 1>any like long or even medium term position that you're

0:14:43.640 --> 0:14:46.120
<v Speaker 1>planning to hold for any reason. You're sort of like

0:14:46.360 --> 0:14:50.240
<v Speaker 1>almost definitely opening yourself up to serious liquidation risks if

0:14:50.320 --> 0:14:52.680
<v Speaker 1>you get anywhere close to that amount of leverage. And

0:14:52.720 --> 0:14:54.000
<v Speaker 1>it's like most of the things that I think, like

0:14:54.080 --> 0:14:57.400
<v Speaker 1>frankly could justify as like the more economically useful parts

0:14:57.840 --> 0:15:02.120
<v Speaker 1>like don't require high like super high leverage anyway. And

0:15:02.160 --> 0:15:04.400
<v Speaker 1>then the last species frankly, like it's something that a

0:15:04.480 --> 0:15:06.360
<v Speaker 1>lot of people look on a scans like you know

0:15:06.400 --> 0:15:08.960
<v Speaker 1>when when you talk about I mean reporters, but regulators

0:15:09.000 --> 0:15:12.200
<v Speaker 1>as well, like not that they're like specific regulations around

0:15:12.240 --> 0:15:15.520
<v Speaker 1>this in most jurisdictions, but like there probably will be eventually,

0:15:16.160 --> 0:15:18.160
<v Speaker 1>and and it's sort of like clearly the direction of

0:15:18.160 --> 0:15:20.600
<v Speaker 1>the world's going in and so start of combining all

0:15:20.640 --> 0:15:23.640
<v Speaker 1>those together, like it wasn't important important part of the

0:15:23.640 --> 0:15:26.200
<v Speaker 1>site wasn't super healthy part of the site necessarily. It

0:15:26.400 --> 0:15:29.000
<v Speaker 1>was like a part that was going to start receiving

0:15:29.040 --> 0:15:32.440
<v Speaker 1>a lot of negative attention, and it just seemed like

0:15:32.640 --> 0:15:34.520
<v Speaker 1>it was like it was time to get rid of it.

0:15:50.480 --> 0:15:52.920
<v Speaker 1>Talk to us a little bit more about the technical

0:15:53.600 --> 0:15:57.960
<v Speaker 1>aspects of building um a system in which there was

0:15:58.320 --> 0:16:00.520
<v Speaker 1>you know, as you describe it, the one wallet where

0:16:00.560 --> 0:16:04.560
<v Speaker 1>everything is you know, cross margin, and so you don't have, okay,

0:16:04.680 --> 0:16:07.880
<v Speaker 1>your bitcoin futures wallet and your future's wallet and so

0:16:08.120 --> 0:16:11.840
<v Speaker 1>forth two things. So like how hard is that to build?

0:16:12.160 --> 0:16:13.880
<v Speaker 1>But also we know that like with a lot of

0:16:13.960 --> 0:16:16.720
<v Speaker 1>the legacy or it's weird to talk about legacy, the

0:16:16.840 --> 0:16:20.120
<v Speaker 1>legacy crypto exchanges, they tend to go down a lot

0:16:20.280 --> 0:16:23.479
<v Speaker 1>during periods of high volatility, which is a source of frustration,

0:16:23.680 --> 0:16:26.120
<v Speaker 1>and we see it We've seen with coin based for example,

0:16:26.200 --> 0:16:29.200
<v Speaker 1>where everyone's starting to like slam into one thing and

0:16:29.240 --> 0:16:33.160
<v Speaker 1>suddenly social media has lit up. You like to point out,

0:16:33.280 --> 0:16:36.520
<v Speaker 1>like on Twitter it's like, well, ft X another another

0:16:36.640 --> 0:16:39.480
<v Speaker 1>day of a hundred percent up time or whatever it is.

0:16:39.920 --> 0:16:42.680
<v Speaker 1>How much are those things connected? This sort of like

0:16:42.960 --> 0:16:46.960
<v Speaker 1>the difficult stress of legacy liquidation books versus and just

0:16:47.440 --> 0:16:51.880
<v Speaker 1>keeping the site going up. Yeah, So the thing that

0:16:52.000 --> 0:16:54.320
<v Speaker 1>really causes the stress there is actually the interaction between

0:16:54.360 --> 0:16:58.720
<v Speaker 1>two different effects, one of which is cross margining. One

0:16:58.760 --> 0:17:01.640
<v Speaker 1>advantage of isolated eargining, and one reason that some exchanges

0:17:01.720 --> 0:17:06.080
<v Speaker 1>do this is you can completely parallelize different products, right.

0:17:06.160 --> 0:17:07.959
<v Speaker 1>You can just like completely separately, say like all right,

0:17:08.000 --> 0:17:11.280
<v Speaker 1>there's our bitcoin EOS market, here's our eight futures. They

0:17:11.320 --> 0:17:14.040
<v Speaker 1>have nothing to do with each other, Like, are none

0:17:14.080 --> 0:17:15.879
<v Speaker 1>of our systems need to look at the other one.

0:17:16.200 --> 0:17:19.080
<v Speaker 1>You have completely parallel margin checks, risk checks, order books,

0:17:19.400 --> 0:17:22.879
<v Speaker 1>and it's easy to rent another server, Like if you

0:17:22.920 --> 0:17:26.000
<v Speaker 1>could scale up your business just by buying ton of servers,

0:17:26.480 --> 0:17:28.760
<v Speaker 1>that is the easiest thing to do, and like we

0:17:28.800 --> 0:17:30.680
<v Speaker 1>would do that in a second. The problem that you

0:17:30.800 --> 0:17:32.960
<v Speaker 1>run into is that doesn't increase increase like the clock

0:17:33.040 --> 0:17:35.840
<v Speaker 1>speed of any one process. And so whenever you have

0:17:36.000 --> 0:17:39.680
<v Speaker 1>these bottlenecking things where everything needs to feed through one process,

0:17:40.240 --> 0:17:43.720
<v Speaker 1>like buying more computers doesn't help because there's just the

0:17:43.800 --> 0:17:46.760
<v Speaker 1>one computer that's computing that one bottle necking thing. And

0:17:46.880 --> 0:17:50.000
<v Speaker 1>the worry with cross margining is if I send an

0:17:50.080 --> 0:17:55.000
<v Speaker 1>order in an bitcoin US order book, that immediately affects

0:17:55.080 --> 0:17:57.439
<v Speaker 1>the amount of margin that I have available for an

0:17:57.600 --> 0:18:01.520
<v Speaker 1>ethereum futures position, and so you can't treat them as

0:18:01.840 --> 0:18:04.399
<v Speaker 1>completely separable from each other, and you sort of have

0:18:04.640 --> 0:18:07.840
<v Speaker 1>in the end this one process, which is keeping track

0:18:07.880 --> 0:18:10.000
<v Speaker 1>of the master amount of margin and collateral that each

0:18:10.000 --> 0:18:14.000
<v Speaker 1>account has available, and that thing has to like every

0:18:14.080 --> 0:18:16.560
<v Speaker 1>single order on every order world has to feed through

0:18:16.640 --> 0:18:20.440
<v Speaker 1>that process, and all of a sudden paralyzation is way harder.

0:18:20.880 --> 0:18:24.040
<v Speaker 1>And that means that your risk of that process falling

0:18:24.080 --> 0:18:26.680
<v Speaker 1>over when things get busy, and if that process gets

0:18:26.720 --> 0:18:29.080
<v Speaker 1>bottle lets, you can't accept orders in any order book

0:18:29.280 --> 0:18:31.640
<v Speaker 1>because you don't know if the person has enough margin corps.

0:18:32.040 --> 0:18:34.800
<v Speaker 1>So that that's sort of like the fundamental tension that

0:18:34.880 --> 0:18:37.399
<v Speaker 1>you that you get too quickly when you frost margin,

0:18:37.960 --> 0:18:40.920
<v Speaker 1>and inherent in that is like then you say, well, okay,

0:18:40.920 --> 0:18:44.320
<v Speaker 1>how about traditional exchanges, like don't they cross margin? And

0:18:44.440 --> 0:18:46.680
<v Speaker 1>the real answer is that it gets back to a

0:18:46.720 --> 0:18:50.000
<v Speaker 1>previous point. In traditional finance, the exchanges aren't the primary

0:18:50.119 --> 0:18:54.560
<v Speaker 1>risk check. The exchanges aren't like analyzing correlations between different

0:18:54.560 --> 0:18:57.880
<v Speaker 1>assets and someone's portfolio. Generally, the exchanges are just processing

0:18:57.960 --> 0:19:00.440
<v Speaker 1>the orders. And then you have things like prime brokers

0:19:00.880 --> 0:19:03.960
<v Speaker 1>who are the actual risk check engines. They're not doing

0:19:04.000 --> 0:19:06.240
<v Speaker 1>it in real time really, at least not like tick

0:19:06.320 --> 0:19:08.760
<v Speaker 1>by tick or order by order. They don't have to

0:19:08.880 --> 0:19:12.000
<v Speaker 1>be as high throughput. They're just sort of like periodically

0:19:12.119 --> 0:19:15.239
<v Speaker 1>checking on people's portfolios. And then you say, okay, well,

0:19:15.240 --> 0:19:18.240
<v Speaker 1>why can't we take it out of this critical process

0:19:18.280 --> 0:19:20.600
<v Speaker 1>and just check it every hour or something. And the

0:19:20.680 --> 0:19:23.760
<v Speaker 1>reason is, well, what if they went bankrupt in that hour? Right,

0:19:24.280 --> 0:19:27.760
<v Speaker 1>which you now get to surface other piece, which is

0:19:27.800 --> 0:19:31.080
<v Speaker 1>the fact that we allow everyone access to the site,

0:19:31.440 --> 0:19:33.720
<v Speaker 1>including people who aren't like, you know, one of the

0:19:33.760 --> 0:19:35.760
<v Speaker 1>five biggest trading firms in the world that you definitely

0:19:35.800 --> 0:19:38.639
<v Speaker 1>have legal recourse over and they have tons of assets

0:19:38.720 --> 0:19:41.000
<v Speaker 1>outside of your exchange that you can claim if they

0:19:41.040 --> 0:19:43.680
<v Speaker 1>want net negative Like that's not how it works in

0:19:43.720 --> 0:19:46.040
<v Speaker 1>crypt and crypto. We have everyone, and so if any

0:19:46.080 --> 0:19:50.280
<v Speaker 1>account goes net negative value, like realistically speaking, we might

0:19:50.400 --> 0:19:53.520
<v Speaker 1>never be able to like proclaim that, and and you know,

0:19:53.760 --> 0:19:56.840
<v Speaker 1>we just end up eating that. And so we have

0:19:57.000 --> 0:19:59.520
<v Speaker 1>to be real time monitoring the risk of all of

0:19:59.600 --> 0:20:01.840
<v Speaker 1>the used years and and that's sort of like one

0:20:01.880 --> 0:20:04.399
<v Speaker 1>of the easier parts to accidentally get sort of bottle

0:20:04.440 --> 0:20:07.119
<v Speaker 1>necked on. Can you talk about that from like a

0:20:07.200 --> 0:20:11.439
<v Speaker 1>perspective of your capital So, like, you know, exchanges are

0:20:11.480 --> 0:20:13.280
<v Speaker 1>sort of notably thinly like in the in like the

0:20:13.320 --> 0:20:15.840
<v Speaker 1>traditional finance where all the exchanges are not like particularly

0:20:15.880 --> 0:20:19.200
<v Speaker 1>capitalized because they're not particularly capital intensive. Clearing houses have

0:20:19.359 --> 0:20:24.280
<v Speaker 1>like weird capital you know, positions and drawing rights. And

0:20:24.359 --> 0:20:26.639
<v Speaker 1>then prime brokers are giant banks who are who are

0:20:26.760 --> 0:20:30.359
<v Speaker 1>like very heavily capitalized. Um, Like for you, like, do

0:20:30.400 --> 0:20:32.919
<v Speaker 1>you have billions and billions of dollars to cover customer

0:20:33.000 --> 0:20:34.960
<v Speaker 1>losses or is it more like you're a sort of

0:20:35.000 --> 0:20:38.920
<v Speaker 1>technological situation where you can you're confident you can blow

0:20:39.000 --> 0:20:41.840
<v Speaker 1>people out fast enough that like customer losses are not

0:20:41.960 --> 0:20:44.560
<v Speaker 1>your problem? Or am I just thinking about it round? No,

0:20:44.840 --> 0:20:47.280
<v Speaker 1>that you're thinking about exactly right? Um. And that's a

0:20:47.359 --> 0:20:50.520
<v Speaker 1>really good question to ask. And different exchanges come to

0:20:50.600 --> 0:20:52.920
<v Speaker 1>different answers that questions. Let me give you a little

0:20:52.920 --> 0:20:55.760
<v Speaker 1>bit of a palette of like how one could answer it.

0:20:56.359 --> 0:20:58.880
<v Speaker 1>One answer, which used to be very popular is that's

0:20:58.920 --> 0:21:01.359
<v Speaker 1>not our problem, that's are you years problem? And you

0:21:01.480 --> 0:21:03.640
<v Speaker 1>might say, what you mean if users negative, you can't

0:21:03.680 --> 0:21:06.280
<v Speaker 1>get funds from them? Twix respond sure, but that means

0:21:06.320 --> 0:21:09.160
<v Speaker 1>some other users positive, and maybe you consider of see

0:21:09.160 --> 0:21:11.280
<v Speaker 1>where that's going. You know, there are these things called

0:21:11.520 --> 0:21:15.120
<v Speaker 1>the positive user doesn't isn't actually positive exactly right, it's

0:21:15.240 --> 0:21:18.240
<v Speaker 1>the clawbacks is sort of like the word that people

0:21:18.359 --> 0:21:21.240
<v Speaker 1>used for that. And there are exchanges where like each

0:21:21.320 --> 0:21:23.399
<v Speaker 1>week they say, like, congrats, you did good trading. You

0:21:23.520 --> 0:21:25.960
<v Speaker 1>get paid eighty six point two percent of your penil

0:21:26.040 --> 0:21:28.440
<v Speaker 1>this week. You know, the other thirteen point went to

0:21:28.480 --> 0:21:31.040
<v Speaker 1>bail people out, and and it just happened week after

0:21:31.119 --> 0:21:33.520
<v Speaker 1>week after week. There's millions off per day of losses

0:21:34.040 --> 0:21:36.719
<v Speaker 1>of customers to that, which is not how you want

0:21:36.760 --> 0:21:38.879
<v Speaker 1>to end up, right. That's sort of like breaking this

0:21:39.040 --> 0:21:43.680
<v Speaker 1>like seemingly really inherent inviolable property of a future, which

0:21:43.720 --> 0:21:46.359
<v Speaker 1>is that if you buy a bitcoin future what like

0:21:47.040 --> 0:21:49.159
<v Speaker 1>whatever something, interest rates, something something. But when all of

0:21:49.160 --> 0:21:51.520
<v Speaker 1>a sudden done in the end, you have a bitcoin

0:21:52.040 --> 0:21:55.200
<v Speaker 1>right have like bitcoint goes up to make it finically

0:21:55.240 --> 0:21:57.080
<v Speaker 1>goes up ten thousand dollars, you make town thous dollars

0:21:57.280 --> 0:21:59.159
<v Speaker 1>if you're like holding its expiration or what effort. But

0:21:59.200 --> 0:22:00.520
<v Speaker 1>all of a sudden, if you're on a getting paid

0:22:00.600 --> 0:22:04.520
<v Speaker 1>back your PNL, you don't really quite have a bigcoin.

0:22:04.600 --> 0:22:06.399
<v Speaker 1>You have something that's kind of like a bigcoin, but

0:22:06.640 --> 0:22:09.200
<v Speaker 1>maybe it's only most of a bigcoin. We'll see. So

0:22:09.440 --> 0:22:12.040
<v Speaker 1>that's like not a good answer, but that is an answer,

0:22:12.320 --> 0:22:15.240
<v Speaker 1>and that is what what some exchanges said. Other exchanges

0:22:15.320 --> 0:22:17.560
<v Speaker 1>give sort of the worst dancer. That's not a good answer.

0:22:17.680 --> 0:22:20.160
<v Speaker 1>Was not the worst answer. The worst answer is going bankrupt,

0:22:20.359 --> 0:22:22.320
<v Speaker 1>and that's not what we want to see. But you know,

0:22:22.440 --> 0:22:24.680
<v Speaker 1>there have been some exchanges blow out in crypto, and

0:22:25.119 --> 0:22:27.639
<v Speaker 1>especially the smaller ones, which gets to your point of

0:22:27.720 --> 0:22:30.920
<v Speaker 1>like how much capital is actually backing these exchanges. One

0:22:30.960 --> 0:22:33.480
<v Speaker 1>of the most dangerous things about using a dinky exchange.

0:22:33.560 --> 0:22:36.000
<v Speaker 1>There's there are two scary things. First of all, they

0:22:36.040 --> 0:22:38.680
<v Speaker 1>probably don't have like very sophisticated tack, so like the

0:22:38.720 --> 0:22:41.040
<v Speaker 1>hacking risk is way higher. But second of all, they

0:22:41.160 --> 0:22:44.000
<v Speaker 1>probably don't have a billion dollars of capital, and so

0:22:44.200 --> 0:22:46.240
<v Speaker 1>if there is a loss, like they don't have anything

0:22:46.280 --> 0:22:48.879
<v Speaker 1>backing back, you know, like they they they have you know,

0:22:48.920 --> 0:22:50.959
<v Speaker 1>two million dollars back in they if they lose five

0:22:51.000 --> 0:22:54.440
<v Speaker 1>million dollars and customers lost three. Okay, So so that's

0:22:54.440 --> 0:22:56.400
<v Speaker 1>sort of like another bad answer, but it's the answer

0:22:56.440 --> 0:22:58.760
<v Speaker 1>you've seen on on some of the smaller venues, and

0:22:58.840 --> 0:23:01.679
<v Speaker 1>then you get sort of like about the biggest venues,

0:23:01.760 --> 0:23:03.480
<v Speaker 1>and the answer to your question is really, yeah, they

0:23:03.520 --> 0:23:05.560
<v Speaker 1>do have a lot of capital backing. Like if you

0:23:05.600 --> 0:23:08.800
<v Speaker 1>look at the actual effective amount of capital backing the

0:23:08.920 --> 0:23:12.119
<v Speaker 1>books on on the largest exchanges, it is and the

0:23:12.160 --> 0:23:15.240
<v Speaker 1>billions and you know, obviously we just raised nine hundred

0:23:15.359 --> 0:23:17.399
<v Speaker 1>or so, but you know, we we we had a

0:23:17.440 --> 0:23:20.399
<v Speaker 1>bunch of profits before that. And then on top of that,

0:23:20.560 --> 0:23:22.800
<v Speaker 1>there's sort of you know, effectively the equity value of

0:23:22.840 --> 0:23:26.800
<v Speaker 1>the exchanges, which are you know, well should be implicitly

0:23:26.840 --> 0:23:29.720
<v Speaker 1>backing these you know, for sort of people exchanging that

0:23:29.800 --> 0:23:31.600
<v Speaker 1>if you have a billion dollar loss, you can like

0:23:31.800 --> 0:23:33.679
<v Speaker 1>go ris a billion dollars and people are like, well,

0:23:33.720 --> 0:23:36.160
<v Speaker 1>you know, to have equity. Yeah, And so the answer

0:23:36.280 --> 0:23:38.639
<v Speaker 1>is for the biggest exchanges, yeah, there is effectively a

0:23:38.720 --> 0:23:41.200
<v Speaker 1>lot backing it. But but once you start going down

0:23:41.320 --> 0:23:43.160
<v Speaker 1>in the pegging or or to exchange where you don't

0:23:43.200 --> 0:23:45.400
<v Speaker 1>trust that they wouldn't do that, that they would kind

0:23:45.400 --> 0:23:48.640
<v Speaker 1>of go do whatever it took to make their users whole. Yeah,

0:23:48.680 --> 0:23:51.320
<v Speaker 1>there's real risk there that you know, if their liquidation

0:23:51.400 --> 0:23:54.720
<v Speaker 1>engine is enough to task neither world their users you know,

0:23:55.200 --> 0:23:58.280
<v Speaker 1>b and if you're like a big exchange with a

0:23:58.320 --> 0:24:01.280
<v Speaker 1>lot of capital, like the empirically, how good is the

0:24:01.400 --> 0:24:04.600
<v Speaker 1>risk management? Like do you guys regularly have like bloods

0:24:04.720 --> 0:24:07.240
<v Speaker 1>that you don't uh that you're not made hole? It's

0:24:07.240 --> 0:24:10.119
<v Speaker 1>a good question. So we um, we we put a

0:24:10.240 --> 0:24:13.359
<v Speaker 1>bunch of thirst engine we don't have the issues like

0:24:13.440 --> 0:24:16.080
<v Speaker 1>we've never had a day I think where there were

0:24:16.400 --> 0:24:18.840
<v Speaker 1>there's more money that we lost in blowouts too, revenue

0:24:18.880 --> 0:24:22.119
<v Speaker 1>that we made just from trading fees. So and on

0:24:22.240 --> 0:24:25.560
<v Speaker 1>most days it's effectively zero dollars cost. So this is

0:24:25.600 --> 0:24:27.520
<v Speaker 1>not like a big deal for for us. I mean,

0:24:27.600 --> 0:24:29.879
<v Speaker 1>it's a big deal think about, but like economically it

0:24:29.920 --> 0:24:31.639
<v Speaker 1>has been a big cost to us. So you're not

0:24:31.720 --> 0:24:36.280
<v Speaker 1>doing like a leverage on big positions, is right, And

0:24:36.359 --> 0:24:38.159
<v Speaker 1>that's that's why it gets down to exactly right, like

0:24:38.480 --> 0:24:41.119
<v Speaker 1>are your you are are your parameter is good and

0:24:41.160 --> 0:24:43.560
<v Speaker 1>reasonably as their liquidation into like reasonable in real time

0:24:43.600 --> 0:24:45.840
<v Speaker 1>and stuff. In some cases the answer that has just

0:24:46.119 --> 0:24:48.960
<v Speaker 1>effectively been no. And and you know we've we've stared

0:24:49.000 --> 0:24:52.440
<v Speaker 1>pretty hard to keep it like pretty effective. But you know,

0:24:52.560 --> 0:24:54.959
<v Speaker 1>when you look at the biggest blowouts historically, especially back

0:24:55.000 --> 0:24:57.639
<v Speaker 1>in like is the kind of thing you like you

0:24:57.680 --> 0:25:00.640
<v Speaker 1>would just look at that and be like that doesn't work, right, Sam,

0:25:00.760 --> 0:25:02.639
<v Speaker 1>and be like, yeah, you're right, that doesn't work. Like

0:25:02.880 --> 0:25:04.520
<v Speaker 1>he's just like, yeah, fifty to one leverage on a

0:25:04.560 --> 0:25:07.720
<v Speaker 1>three hundred million dollar bitcoin position and just like Okay,

0:25:07.760 --> 0:25:10.720
<v Speaker 1>that's interesting until it is exactly It's like, can you

0:25:10.800 --> 0:25:14.760
<v Speaker 1>liquidate like three million dollars a bitcoin consistently with less

0:25:14.840 --> 0:25:18.000
<v Speaker 1>than two percent impact plus slippage plus movement during the

0:25:18.040 --> 0:25:21.119
<v Speaker 1>time it takes you that Like, no, you can't. Can

0:25:21.160 --> 0:25:22.920
<v Speaker 1>I ask you about? I don't. I don't really know

0:25:23.240 --> 0:25:26.359
<v Speaker 1>the phrase liquidation engine, but like, um, like my my

0:25:26.480 --> 0:25:29.520
<v Speaker 1>understanding is that like there's like a stereotype in like

0:25:29.920 --> 0:25:33.040
<v Speaker 1>the crypto world where when people get blown out of

0:25:33.080 --> 0:25:36.280
<v Speaker 1>margin positions, they it is done as like sloppily as

0:25:36.400 --> 0:25:39.879
<v Speaker 1>eggs can be imagined, and like prices like move right

0:25:40.080 --> 0:25:42.920
<v Speaker 1>jerkily and mechanically in a way that like you know,

0:25:43.119 --> 0:25:45.040
<v Speaker 1>like I'm just I've been thinking about you know where

0:25:45.040 --> 0:25:48.080
<v Speaker 1>recording this on the day of the Archagos report coming

0:25:48.119 --> 0:25:51.240
<v Speaker 1>at where like you know, in traditional finance, like when

0:25:51.280 --> 0:25:54.440
<v Speaker 1>a big position gets blown out, like they don't necessarily

0:25:54.480 --> 0:25:55.879
<v Speaker 1>do a good job of it. But they sort of

0:25:55.960 --> 0:25:58.280
<v Speaker 1>sit down and think, what is the way to liquidate

0:25:58.400 --> 0:26:01.639
<v Speaker 1>this position with minimal and back to the bank, Whereas,

0:26:01.680 --> 0:26:05.440
<v Speaker 1>like my understanding is that in crypto exchanges it's all automated,

0:26:05.480 --> 0:26:08.480
<v Speaker 1>and often automated in a sort of like predictable and

0:26:08.800 --> 0:26:11.200
<v Speaker 1>dangerous way. Yeah, it's been getting a little bit better

0:26:11.280 --> 0:26:13.679
<v Speaker 1>over time. It's not great, i would say, for us

0:26:13.720 --> 0:26:15.879
<v Speaker 1>to space, but it used to be terrible. So let

0:26:15.920 --> 0:26:18.119
<v Speaker 1>me tell you some horror stories here which are like,

0:26:18.760 --> 0:26:21.240
<v Speaker 1>here's like one really bad example that we did see,

0:26:21.640 --> 0:26:26.520
<v Speaker 1>you know, back in like when when things were really messy,

0:26:27.000 --> 0:26:29.080
<v Speaker 1>someone had, you know, a two hundred million dollar position

0:26:29.119 --> 0:26:32.359
<v Speaker 1>in bitcoin futures. First of all, it very very strongly

0:26:32.400 --> 0:26:34.520
<v Speaker 1>seemed like there's a human they're clicking, and that human

0:26:34.640 --> 0:26:37.520
<v Speaker 1>was sometimes to sleep, and and so maybe markets moved

0:26:37.560 --> 0:26:39.840
<v Speaker 1>while that human was asleep, and then the account was

0:26:39.880 --> 0:26:41.919
<v Speaker 1>net negative by the time the human weight woke up.

0:26:41.960 --> 0:26:44.600
<v Speaker 1>So that's like not a good start. And then you know,

0:26:44.720 --> 0:26:48.040
<v Speaker 1>you see this position is obviously underwater, and and and

0:26:48.119 --> 0:26:50.560
<v Speaker 1>what they would do, you know, let's say two percent underwater,

0:26:51.680 --> 0:26:54.359
<v Speaker 1>is you know, they place an offer for two hundred

0:26:54.400 --> 0:26:57.840
<v Speaker 1>million dollars of bitcoin futures two percent behind the b BO,

0:26:58.640 --> 0:27:00.480
<v Speaker 1>right and just sit there. And and of course that

0:27:00.560 --> 0:27:03.560
<v Speaker 1>was at the bankruptcy price, like hoping someone would lift

0:27:03.600 --> 0:27:07.320
<v Speaker 1>through the book and buy two million, two million dollar offer.

0:27:07.880 --> 0:27:10.080
<v Speaker 1>Obviously that's not what happens, right. What happens is everyone

0:27:10.119 --> 0:27:15.040
<v Speaker 1>sees the offer and things just like crash more, right,

0:27:15.480 --> 0:27:17.760
<v Speaker 1>and it just gets like worse and worse. You know that.

0:27:17.880 --> 0:27:20.040
<v Speaker 1>That's like an example of not a good liquidation engine,

0:27:20.160 --> 0:27:23.440
<v Speaker 1>so to speak. Yeah, although honestly that's better, Like I

0:27:23.600 --> 0:27:25.960
<v Speaker 1>sort of expected it was like if you hit some trigger,

0:27:26.080 --> 0:27:28.240
<v Speaker 1>like some automated thing just puts in market orders to

0:27:28.280 --> 0:27:30.880
<v Speaker 1>sell the position. So we've seen that as well, which

0:27:30.920 --> 0:27:33.280
<v Speaker 1>is sort of the opposite extreme, and it's sort of

0:27:33.359 --> 0:27:37.200
<v Speaker 1>like different exchanges that did different pieces of this, like yeah,

0:27:37.280 --> 0:27:39.840
<v Speaker 1>and I basically think like both those extremes are bad, right,

0:27:40.359 --> 0:27:42.280
<v Speaker 1>and the market order thing goes about as poorly as

0:27:42.280 --> 0:27:44.800
<v Speaker 1>you would expect, you know, So where have things been

0:27:44.840 --> 0:27:47.320
<v Speaker 1>moving over time? Like what's sort of like the reasonable system? Well,

0:27:47.359 --> 0:27:48.879
<v Speaker 1>I don't know, but it's sort of like I think

0:27:48.920 --> 0:27:50.720
<v Speaker 1>you would like if you just like had ten minutes

0:27:50.760 --> 0:27:53.640
<v Speaker 1>write down something like better than either of those, which

0:27:53.720 --> 0:27:56.320
<v Speaker 1>is like kind of a decent proxy um, which is

0:27:56.359 --> 0:27:59.160
<v Speaker 1>basically like, you know, what do we do so whatever,

0:27:59.240 --> 0:28:01.159
<v Speaker 1>first of all offices that we cut off opening your position,

0:28:01.680 --> 0:28:04.080
<v Speaker 1>then if your accounted like it's further you know down

0:28:04.240 --> 0:28:06.159
<v Speaker 1>in collateral, the first thing we do is we just

0:28:06.200 --> 0:28:08.440
<v Speaker 1>start sending orders on behalf of your account closed down

0:28:08.800 --> 0:28:12.520
<v Speaker 1>the position. It's done in an automated way. It's done

0:28:12.600 --> 0:28:15.800
<v Speaker 1>like bit by bit, like basically twalps it. And you know,

0:28:15.880 --> 0:28:18.560
<v Speaker 1>we keep it to like a relatively low fraction of

0:28:19.680 --> 0:28:22.560
<v Speaker 1>of of of underlying volume of the asset, so like

0:28:22.640 --> 0:28:23.920
<v Speaker 1>we don't want to be in position where like the

0:28:24.000 --> 0:28:27.879
<v Speaker 1>liquidation engine global volume, because then then it's just like

0:28:28.040 --> 0:28:30.160
<v Speaker 1>that like the market doesn't have time to get liquidity

0:28:30.240 --> 0:28:32.680
<v Speaker 1>for that um. And and that's also sort of like

0:28:32.760 --> 0:28:34.360
<v Speaker 1>one way to think of what happens if you send

0:28:34.400 --> 0:28:37.520
<v Speaker 1>to market orders like volume for that two second period.

0:28:38.000 --> 0:28:40.680
<v Speaker 1>You know, that just overwhelms order books and it basically

0:28:40.720 --> 0:28:42.600
<v Speaker 1>sort of like chip away with that and and and

0:28:42.680 --> 0:28:45.480
<v Speaker 1>hopefully that works or it's just like markets recover or

0:28:45.520 --> 0:28:47.680
<v Speaker 1>go down depending on which direction their position was in.

0:28:47.760 --> 0:28:50.480
<v Speaker 1>And you know, but before action, most their position has

0:28:50.480 --> 0:28:53.320
<v Speaker 1>been liquidated, like we no longer have to liquidated and

0:28:53.480 --> 0:28:55.920
<v Speaker 1>and then we stopped. If that doesn't work, like things

0:28:56.000 --> 0:28:58.800
<v Speaker 1>just keep moving against a position, and like the location

0:28:58.840 --> 0:29:00.520
<v Speaker 1>engine is like going as fast as is willing to

0:29:00.600 --> 0:29:03.280
<v Speaker 1>go in terms of like fraction of volume and and

0:29:03.480 --> 0:29:06.080
<v Speaker 1>and like the digits closer and closure bankruptcy you have

0:29:06.640 --> 0:29:10.080
<v Speaker 1>it spells backs oppliquity prior system where basically we just

0:29:10.400 --> 0:29:13.400
<v Speaker 1>pass off their mating positions and value the account wholesale,

0:29:13.920 --> 0:29:17.120
<v Speaker 1>like paraded to a bunch of liquidity fighters who have

0:29:17.200 --> 0:29:20.720
<v Speaker 1>agreed to seven like basically forcibly take on you know,

0:29:20.840 --> 0:29:23.840
<v Speaker 1>liquidating accounts um and so that's what happens when it

0:29:23.880 --> 0:29:25.920
<v Speaker 1>looks like the you know, first stup liquidation and shoul

0:29:25.920 --> 0:29:27.920
<v Speaker 1>wouldn't get their time. And the thought is they're like,

0:29:28.040 --> 0:29:31.880
<v Speaker 1>you know, these market makers have well collateralized, well capitalized accounts,

0:29:31.960 --> 0:29:33.640
<v Speaker 1>and then they can figure out what they want to

0:29:33.680 --> 0:29:37.120
<v Speaker 1>do with those positions. It's not like perfect, but at

0:29:37.200 --> 0:29:38.920
<v Speaker 1>least sort of like you know, the goal is to

0:29:39.000 --> 0:29:41.680
<v Speaker 1>sort of like get rid of the unnecessary impact, right

0:29:42.280 --> 0:29:44.600
<v Speaker 1>and like you're you're gonna have impact whenever there's a

0:29:44.720 --> 0:29:46.880
<v Speaker 1>forced sale, but like at least you want to have

0:29:47.000 --> 0:29:49.240
<v Speaker 1>that impact be like the correct economic impact instead of

0:29:49.320 --> 0:29:51.600
<v Speaker 1>like five times that because it's done way too quickly

0:29:51.720 --> 0:29:55.040
<v Speaker 1>or something. Can I ask them about like order books

0:29:55.040 --> 0:29:58.000
<v Speaker 1>and market makers? Like what I'm interested in is an

0:29:58.040 --> 0:30:01.760
<v Speaker 1>intuition for sort of how liquid these crypto products are. Right, So,

0:30:01.840 --> 0:30:04.000
<v Speaker 1>like you have like sort of in US equity exchanges,

0:30:04.040 --> 0:30:07.000
<v Speaker 1>you have the stereotype of like there are you know,

0:30:07.280 --> 0:30:10.959
<v Speaker 1>high frequency electronic market makers. If you sell a lot

0:30:11.000 --> 0:30:12.760
<v Speaker 1>of stock, the stock will go down by like a

0:30:12.800 --> 0:30:16.240
<v Speaker 1>sort of predictable amount, and like people are willing to

0:30:16.560 --> 0:30:19.840
<v Speaker 1>step up to buy at these declining prices a certain amount, right,

0:30:19.880 --> 0:30:22.360
<v Speaker 1>Like there's there's like a certain amount of capital in

0:30:22.440 --> 0:30:24.320
<v Speaker 1>the in the order book, there's a certain amount of

0:30:24.440 --> 0:30:27.520
<v Speaker 1>like any time the market is open, someone is there

0:30:27.560 --> 0:30:30.400
<v Speaker 1>to buy. People complain that they're not as willing to

0:30:30.560 --> 0:30:32.760
<v Speaker 1>sort of take risk as like the old school banks were,

0:30:33.200 --> 0:30:36.120
<v Speaker 1>but like there's there's a sort of like predictable amount

0:30:36.200 --> 0:30:39.680
<v Speaker 1>of liquidity like in crypto markets in particularly because they're

0:30:39.680 --> 0:30:42.240
<v Speaker 1>so fragmented and there's so many products. Like if you

0:30:42.400 --> 0:30:44.720
<v Speaker 1>want to sell a bunch, like does the price good zero?

0:30:44.920 --> 0:30:47.600
<v Speaker 1>Like are there a lot of market makers with capital

0:30:47.640 --> 0:30:50.840
<v Speaker 1>who are sort of like committing capital everywhere and kind

0:30:50.880 --> 0:30:53.920
<v Speaker 1>of like trading quickly or is it a little bit

0:30:54.040 --> 0:30:55.760
<v Speaker 1>more of a like you never know where you're gonna

0:30:55.800 --> 0:30:59.040
<v Speaker 1>get kind of thing. Yeah, if well, first of all,

0:30:59.080 --> 0:31:01.080
<v Speaker 1>it depends on the ben years. If you're using sort

0:31:01.080 --> 0:31:04.479
<v Speaker 1>of a dicky exchange, then like it's sometimes like who

0:31:04.520 --> 0:31:06.080
<v Speaker 1>the hell knows what's going to happen, right, And you'll

0:31:06.120 --> 0:31:10.479
<v Speaker 1>see completely wacky prints sometimes go up on liquid fund us.

0:31:10.480 --> 0:31:13.920
<v Speaker 1>And remember there's no recking mess here or anything like that. Yeah,

0:31:13.960 --> 0:31:15.600
<v Speaker 1>I was gonna say, like in in the US, like

0:31:15.680 --> 0:31:18.000
<v Speaker 1>you know, every market maker is making markets on every exchange,

0:31:18.000 --> 0:31:20.040
<v Speaker 1>but I guess there's no there's no reason to expect

0:31:20.080 --> 0:31:23.600
<v Speaker 1>that in crypto yet, no, And so like the different exchanges,

0:31:23.680 --> 0:31:26.280
<v Speaker 1>like Bitcoin USD on one exchange is like a different

0:31:26.280 --> 0:31:29.120
<v Speaker 1>product from Bitcoin USD on another exchange. I mean, obviously

0:31:29.120 --> 0:31:31.320
<v Speaker 1>it's basically the same thing, but it takes like an

0:31:31.360 --> 0:31:34.040
<v Speaker 1>hour to turn one into the other through like transfers

0:31:34.160 --> 0:31:36.120
<v Speaker 1>if you're lucky, and like a day if you're unlucky.

0:31:36.840 --> 0:31:40.360
<v Speaker 1>And and there's no there's no nothing forcibly keeping those

0:31:40.920 --> 0:31:43.040
<v Speaker 1>in line with each other. Right, So so that is

0:31:43.080 --> 0:31:45.520
<v Speaker 1>one thing to note is you see divergences between different

0:31:45.560 --> 0:31:50.440
<v Speaker 1>exchanges when markets are stressed and you usually these are

0:31:50.520 --> 0:31:52.960
<v Speaker 1>tiny because there are over treasures, but like when they're

0:31:53.040 --> 0:31:55.400
<v Speaker 1>big moves, sometimes they're percent. So it's that's sort of

0:31:55.480 --> 0:31:57.600
<v Speaker 1>like one caveot to make it. And when you talk

0:31:57.600 --> 0:32:00.040
<v Speaker 1>about which exchanges you see sort of these illiquid and

0:32:00.120 --> 0:32:02.520
<v Speaker 1>so on, it's maybe not exactly what you think, like

0:32:02.600 --> 0:32:04.840
<v Speaker 1>it's through served of the like dicky ones, it's also

0:32:04.920 --> 0:32:06.920
<v Speaker 1>true of some of the better known ones. And in

0:32:07.080 --> 0:32:09.680
<v Speaker 1>particular and this is like a huge, huge, huge factor

0:32:10.320 --> 0:32:14.360
<v Speaker 1>any exchange that doesn't allow any leverage or margin, there's

0:32:14.360 --> 0:32:16.960
<v Speaker 1>sort of competing intuitions for what would happen there. But

0:32:17.240 --> 0:32:20.640
<v Speaker 1>in general it's less liquid. And the reason it's less

0:32:20.640 --> 0:32:23.760
<v Speaker 1>liquities like the liquidy fighters don't have any ability to

0:32:23.840 --> 0:32:26.360
<v Speaker 1>margin there. And remember this is like these needs to

0:32:26.360 --> 0:32:29.760
<v Speaker 1>be deliverables. This isn't just looking at total value. You know,

0:32:29.920 --> 0:32:32.640
<v Speaker 1>Let's say that someone tries to sell a hundred million

0:32:32.680 --> 0:32:35.440
<v Speaker 1>dollars a bitcoin on it in a five minute period

0:32:35.640 --> 0:32:39.239
<v Speaker 1>on a spot exchange with no no margin capabilities. If

0:32:39.280 --> 0:32:41.880
<v Speaker 1>the market makers didn't have a hundred million US dollars

0:32:42.280 --> 0:32:47.240
<v Speaker 1>basically custodied on that particular exchange at that particular time,

0:32:47.280 --> 0:32:49.520
<v Speaker 1>they can't buy it ladies just run out of dollar

0:32:49.600 --> 0:32:51.760
<v Speaker 1>spy and they might have another three hundred million dollars

0:32:52.160 --> 0:32:55.080
<v Speaker 1>in their bank account or in other exchanges that didn't

0:32:55.080 --> 0:32:57.400
<v Speaker 1>help them buy that offer, and it might take a

0:32:57.480 --> 0:32:59.680
<v Speaker 1>day to get the dollars over there if there's no

0:32:59.840 --> 0:33:01.720
<v Speaker 1>more ginning that. That also makes it way harder for

0:33:01.840 --> 0:33:04.880
<v Speaker 1>market makers ride deep liquidity because again they're just like

0:33:04.960 --> 0:33:07.800
<v Speaker 1>it's not capital efficient for them to keep seventeen billion

0:33:07.840 --> 0:33:12.000
<v Speaker 1>dollars of reserves of every plausible currency on every plausible exchange,

0:33:12.760 --> 0:33:14.280
<v Speaker 1>right because in the US you have to in like

0:33:14.480 --> 0:33:16.840
<v Speaker 1>US equities, you need to put orders on every exchange.

0:33:16.880 --> 0:33:18.800
<v Speaker 1>But in in crypto to do this you need to

0:33:19.200 --> 0:33:22.680
<v Speaker 1>like actually capitalize like your maximum order everything that's change

0:33:22.720 --> 0:33:25.360
<v Speaker 1>separately exactly. And this is the flip that this is

0:33:25.400 --> 0:33:28.440
<v Speaker 1>a drawback to the cryptosystem where I sort of described

0:33:28.440 --> 0:33:30.440
<v Speaker 1>the miracle of it, you know earlier, of like one

0:33:30.520 --> 0:33:34.640
<v Speaker 1>integrated product and so you get so much efficiency out

0:33:34.680 --> 0:33:36.840
<v Speaker 1>of like you know, you just have your funds there

0:33:36.840 --> 0:33:38.520
<v Speaker 1>and you can do anything you want on the exchange,

0:33:38.600 --> 0:33:40.920
<v Speaker 1>and like there are no intermediaries. Everyone can do it

0:33:41.560 --> 0:33:44.240
<v Speaker 1>like this. There's no like stock loan business being completely

0:33:44.320 --> 0:33:47.040
<v Speaker 1>just like separate and a separate company on a separate

0:33:47.080 --> 0:33:49.240
<v Speaker 1>time scale from like the trades you need to be doing.

0:33:49.880 --> 0:33:51.600
<v Speaker 1>You do get a ton of efficiency of this, but

0:33:51.800 --> 0:33:54.000
<v Speaker 1>the flip side is you don't have one central prime

0:33:54.080 --> 0:33:59.080
<v Speaker 1>broker that's capitalizing, you know, simultaneously all exchanges for you

0:33:59.200 --> 0:34:02.800
<v Speaker 1>with the same apital, Like you have to separately capitalize

0:34:02.840 --> 0:34:05.520
<v Speaker 1>each one, which is super super expensive, especially if they

0:34:05.560 --> 0:34:07.680
<v Speaker 1>don't allow a margin. So that's sort of like one

0:34:07.840 --> 0:34:10.160
<v Speaker 1>issue that you run into, which isn't an issue with

0:34:10.280 --> 0:34:12.320
<v Speaker 1>overall crypto markets. Like, if you're looking sort of like

0:34:12.880 --> 0:34:15.759
<v Speaker 1>the like blended average bitcoin price, that's not a huge deal.

0:34:15.960 --> 0:34:18.560
<v Speaker 1>But if you're looking at like blowouts of one particular

0:34:18.680 --> 0:34:21.680
<v Speaker 1>venue that is, then you get to like, okay, sure,

0:34:21.760 --> 0:34:23.520
<v Speaker 1>but like like if you aren't that, like let's use

0:34:23.560 --> 0:34:26.520
<v Speaker 1>just average bitcoin prices across all major exchanges. You're not

0:34:26.600 --> 0:34:28.759
<v Speaker 1>worried so much about, Like, yeah, it sucks that there's

0:34:28.760 --> 0:34:31.439
<v Speaker 1>like a little divergence, but like generally what's the bitcoin worth?

0:34:31.560 --> 0:34:34.680
<v Speaker 1>Like you know, how much does that diverge? Yeah, you know,

0:34:34.840 --> 0:34:36.759
<v Speaker 1>it's it's better than it was three years ago. Like

0:34:36.880 --> 0:34:39.719
<v Speaker 1>the market makers are massively better capitalized than they were

0:34:40.160 --> 0:34:43.279
<v Speaker 1>three years ago. Um, and so you know, I think

0:34:43.400 --> 0:34:45.800
<v Speaker 1>something you saw is like on this drap in you know,

0:34:45.960 --> 0:34:49.239
<v Speaker 1>may from like sixty k to thirty k. It was

0:34:49.320 --> 0:34:52.239
<v Speaker 1>like very very orderly all things considered, Like is if

0:34:52.239 --> 0:34:54.040
<v Speaker 1>a few percent drop in crypto markets like a one

0:34:54.120 --> 0:34:56.880
<v Speaker 1>day period, but like and there's there's a lot of liquidations,

0:34:56.960 --> 0:35:01.240
<v Speaker 1>but like there there weren't massive it liquid prints markets

0:35:01.280 --> 0:35:04.160
<v Speaker 1>remained liquid and and and and worldly more or less

0:35:04.440 --> 0:35:07.640
<v Speaker 1>to like an impressive extent given the volatility. Contrast that

0:35:07.800 --> 0:35:12.439
<v Speaker 1>with a year ago in March, when crypto dropped from

0:35:12.760 --> 0:35:15.160
<v Speaker 1>nine k to four k and like a two day period.

0:35:15.480 --> 0:35:17.840
<v Speaker 1>There are people freaking out there that like they're going

0:35:17.920 --> 0:35:20.440
<v Speaker 1>to be systematic failures in the crypto industry, and like

0:35:20.960 --> 0:35:23.840
<v Speaker 1>you know, think about like it wasn't like our Chagos

0:35:23.960 --> 0:35:26.080
<v Speaker 1>people are worried about it was two thousand eight. It

0:35:26.280 --> 0:35:30.279
<v Speaker 1>was a a chain of liquidations of businesses started by

0:35:30.280 --> 0:35:32.719
<v Speaker 1>a few and they are like people going around saying,

0:35:32.760 --> 0:35:34.759
<v Speaker 1>we have no idea who's underwater here, Like it could

0:35:34.800 --> 0:35:38.759
<v Speaker 1>be everyone, like lots of businesses and basically predicated their

0:35:38.800 --> 0:35:42.239
<v Speaker 1>financing strategy on the notion that it was implausible depic

0:35:42.320 --> 0:35:45.120
<v Speaker 1>when we go blew five thousand dollars for better for worse.

0:35:45.200 --> 0:35:47.920
<v Speaker 1>That that was like empirically true. Look love mining firms,

0:35:47.960 --> 0:35:50.919
<v Speaker 1>there will leverage long bitcoin with like a bankruptcy price

0:35:51.000 --> 0:35:55.239
<v Speaker 1>of like you know, like there's like a huge, huge

0:35:55.239 --> 0:35:57.560
<v Speaker 1>swass of the crypto space that were like maybe in

0:35:57.680 --> 0:36:00.759
<v Speaker 1>danger of being bankrupt at four k, and of course

0:36:00.840 --> 0:36:04.080
<v Speaker 1>then you could have massive cascading effects and liquity and

0:36:04.120 --> 0:36:07.200
<v Speaker 1>markets was completely shot. None of the market makers had

0:36:07.239 --> 0:36:10.480
<v Speaker 1>capital left to buy, even though they are obviously amazing

0:36:10.520 --> 0:36:12.480
<v Speaker 1>purchases to do if you happen to have a billion

0:36:12.520 --> 0:36:14.880
<v Speaker 1>dollars lying around and and and so it was just

0:36:15.000 --> 0:36:17.520
<v Speaker 1>like it was. It was a massive nightmare and like

0:36:17.640 --> 0:36:19.880
<v Speaker 1>really dangerous for the industry in a way that like

0:36:20.000 --> 0:36:22.080
<v Speaker 1>this serious crush was way more orderly, and I think

0:36:22.360 --> 0:36:25.759
<v Speaker 1>partially the industry has grown a lot partially honestly, like

0:36:26.080 --> 0:36:28.719
<v Speaker 1>no one's business was predicated on bitcoin never getting down

0:36:28.760 --> 0:36:31.440
<v Speaker 1>to thirty cable again, like everyone sort of thought that

0:36:31.560 --> 0:36:34.120
<v Speaker 1>might happen. Is that is that a way of saying

0:36:34.200 --> 0:36:38.120
<v Speaker 1>that the industry has less leverage like than it was. Yes,

0:36:38.280 --> 0:36:41.000
<v Speaker 1>I think that's like basically right, that the industry is

0:36:41.040 --> 0:36:43.480
<v Speaker 1>less leverage to present terms. Now, I think the dollars

0:36:43.520 --> 0:36:45.759
<v Speaker 1>of leverage have gone up, but so was the market cap,

0:36:46.239 --> 0:36:48.759
<v Speaker 1>and the market cap has gone up faster. This is

0:36:49.080 --> 0:36:51.040
<v Speaker 1>what I was about to ask, because it feels like

0:36:51.239 --> 0:36:54.000
<v Speaker 1>you're describing the system is being less levered and the

0:36:54.080 --> 0:36:58.680
<v Speaker 1>market makers and the exchanges being better at liquidating positions,

0:36:58.880 --> 0:37:00.719
<v Speaker 1>being able to do it in a more orderly way.

0:37:01.120 --> 0:37:04.000
<v Speaker 1>But I feel like, at the same time, so everyone

0:37:04.040 --> 0:37:06.960
<v Speaker 1>always struggles whenever there's a big move in bitcoin, and

0:37:07.040 --> 0:37:09.279
<v Speaker 1>I feel like over the past few months we've seen

0:37:09.440 --> 0:37:12.280
<v Speaker 1>leverage come up again and again as a sort of excuse,

0:37:12.440 --> 0:37:15.200
<v Speaker 1>or whenever the price is dropping, it's like, oh, levered

0:37:15.239 --> 0:37:18.680
<v Speaker 1>positions are getting liquidated, Like is there a disconnect there?

0:37:18.760 --> 0:37:21.080
<v Speaker 1>Like is that narrative of the market wrong? And then

0:37:21.400 --> 0:37:25.600
<v Speaker 1>if it is, what is actually driving the price of bitcoin? Like,

0:37:25.719 --> 0:37:27.480
<v Speaker 1>if you were going to look at the past couple

0:37:27.520 --> 0:37:30.480
<v Speaker 1>of months, what was the cause of the down draft?

0:37:31.360 --> 0:37:33.399
<v Speaker 1>It's a really good question. So first answer is there's

0:37:33.440 --> 0:37:36.680
<v Speaker 1>some truth to it. Liquidations and leverage were a cause.

0:37:37.200 --> 0:37:42.279
<v Speaker 1>One of the causes of the draw from it was

0:37:42.400 --> 0:37:45.719
<v Speaker 1>just at a level which is large and absolute terms

0:37:45.880 --> 0:37:48.880
<v Speaker 1>compared to two a year ago, but small relative to

0:37:48.960 --> 0:37:52.000
<v Speaker 1>the capital in this space, and so you know, there

0:37:52.040 --> 0:37:54.560
<v Speaker 1>are twenty billion dollars of long positions probably that got

0:37:54.640 --> 0:37:58.080
<v Speaker 1>liquidated over a week long period during the base part

0:37:58.120 --> 0:38:00.759
<v Speaker 1>of the drop in crypto. But the industry is able

0:38:00.800 --> 0:38:03.279
<v Speaker 1>to absorb that because a decrease in price. It caused

0:38:03.320 --> 0:38:05.440
<v Speaker 1>a significant decrease in price, but it was like a

0:38:05.480 --> 0:38:08.800
<v Speaker 1>surprising the orderly decrease in price in that like people

0:38:08.840 --> 0:38:11.080
<v Speaker 1>weren't blowing out there there. You know, there are a

0:38:11.120 --> 0:38:13.160
<v Speaker 1>lot of losses from some people, but they, you know,

0:38:13.360 --> 0:38:15.960
<v Speaker 1>weren't generally going. You know, this is sort of like

0:38:16.080 --> 0:38:18.520
<v Speaker 1>large players in this space were very well capitalized. The

0:38:18.680 --> 0:38:23.200
<v Speaker 1>system's technology had improved, so exchange downtime was less bad.

0:38:23.719 --> 0:38:26.240
<v Speaker 1>I don't want to say he's great, Like mostly stages

0:38:26.239 --> 0:38:29.719
<v Speaker 1>had serious downtime this time, but way less than you know,

0:38:29.920 --> 0:38:31.920
<v Speaker 1>a year ago when most exchanges had twelve hours of

0:38:32.000 --> 0:38:35.560
<v Speaker 1>downtime during the big crash. And so the infrastructure and

0:38:35.640 --> 0:38:38.600
<v Speaker 1>the liquidity in this space held up much better under

0:38:38.640 --> 0:38:40.359
<v Speaker 1>the liquidations than they did a year ago. But there

0:38:40.400 --> 0:38:43.399
<v Speaker 1>were real liquidations and it was one of the contributors

0:38:43.680 --> 0:38:46.279
<v Speaker 1>to the crash. Now, one thing I think is worth

0:38:46.360 --> 0:38:49.640
<v Speaker 1>noting there is like they're also one of the contributors

0:38:49.680 --> 0:38:52.560
<v Speaker 1>to run up from ten k to sixty K. I

0:38:52.880 --> 0:38:54.920
<v Speaker 1>think that's sort of like often people sort of like

0:38:55.320 --> 0:38:58.400
<v Speaker 1>want to live in a fantasy land where like leverage

0:38:58.440 --> 0:39:01.200
<v Speaker 1>can make markets go up but not out, and it's

0:39:01.200 --> 0:39:03.839
<v Speaker 1>like not not really how it works, like for better

0:39:03.920 --> 0:39:06.280
<v Speaker 1>or for worse. Like I strongly believe that the crypto

0:39:06.360 --> 0:39:09.840
<v Speaker 1>ecosystem is in a stronger healthier position today because of

0:39:10.000 --> 0:39:29.399
<v Speaker 1>leverage than it would be if there was never any leverage, Sam,

0:39:29.920 --> 0:39:31.880
<v Speaker 1>and I don't know how much work if we're going

0:39:31.920 --> 0:39:33.640
<v Speaker 1>to really talk about this, but I actually want to

0:39:33.760 --> 0:39:37.480
<v Speaker 1>just ask a sort of question related to the Defy ecosystem.

0:39:37.560 --> 0:39:39.920
<v Speaker 1>And I know beyond f t X you're invested in

0:39:40.000 --> 0:39:44.040
<v Speaker 1>that there is leverage existing DEFY in different ways. So

0:39:44.400 --> 0:39:48.720
<v Speaker 1>someone might post some stable coin to borrow more stable

0:39:48.760 --> 0:39:51.280
<v Speaker 1>coins that they might post either to borrow stable coins,

0:39:51.560 --> 0:39:53.759
<v Speaker 1>and then they might use that to invest in something else,

0:39:53.800 --> 0:39:56.920
<v Speaker 1>so then they get another token. Are we gonna have

0:39:57.080 --> 0:40:00.040
<v Speaker 1>to like how well do we have a handle? And

0:40:00.600 --> 0:40:03.920
<v Speaker 1>I guess what I would say is leverage measures within defy.

0:40:04.000 --> 0:40:06.480
<v Speaker 1>It feels like whether we're talking about an exchange like

0:40:06.600 --> 0:40:11.080
<v Speaker 1>f t X or traditional uh traditional trad five venue

0:40:11.160 --> 0:40:13.239
<v Speaker 1>like we have these sort of like concepts of like

0:40:13.520 --> 0:40:15.440
<v Speaker 1>how much open interest is there and how many like

0:40:15.560 --> 0:40:18.080
<v Speaker 1>long futures are out there. Are we going to have

0:40:18.160 --> 0:40:21.840
<v Speaker 1>to sort of like reconceptualize how we think about leverage

0:40:21.920 --> 0:40:24.720
<v Speaker 1>in the DeFi space where perhaps there isn't a perfect

0:40:24.760 --> 0:40:26.960
<v Speaker 1>analog to some of this stuff. And do we have

0:40:27.120 --> 0:40:30.880
<v Speaker 1>a good handle on sort of like overall vulnerability to

0:40:31.560 --> 0:40:34.239
<v Speaker 1>disorderly liquidations? Yes, So I don't think we need to

0:40:34.320 --> 0:40:38.360
<v Speaker 1>fundamentally reconceptualize it. I think they're very clear parallels, and

0:40:38.400 --> 0:40:40.680
<v Speaker 1>I think it's like not that hard in some sense

0:40:41.080 --> 0:40:42.600
<v Speaker 1>to think about. I think the big problem is that

0:40:42.640 --> 0:40:45.640
<v Speaker 1>there isn't a guy who's in charge of it. When

0:40:45.680 --> 0:40:47.920
<v Speaker 1>you sort of think about, like, you know, how do

0:40:48.000 --> 0:40:51.040
<v Speaker 1>you figure out like who's in charge of like staying

0:40:51.080 --> 0:40:53.799
<v Speaker 1>on top of the risk on fts? Like there's an answer, right,

0:40:54.400 --> 0:40:56.960
<v Speaker 1>It's it's like it's me, right, you know, and my team.

0:40:57.440 --> 0:40:59.360
<v Speaker 1>I think when you can defy, there often isn't an

0:40:59.400 --> 0:41:01.879
<v Speaker 1>answer for me in charge of of managing it. Also

0:41:01.960 --> 0:41:04.799
<v Speaker 1>was in church of reporting it, and so I think

0:41:04.840 --> 0:41:07.920
<v Speaker 1>it's just messy is the answer like like like no

0:41:08.000 --> 0:41:11.839
<v Speaker 1>one need serve response taking responsibility and it's not obviously would.

0:41:12.360 --> 0:41:13.719
<v Speaker 1>And so I think that there's just like a ton

0:41:13.760 --> 0:41:17.080
<v Speaker 1>of untracked stuff, and like you know what that means

0:41:17.239 --> 0:41:22.360
<v Speaker 1>is like, yeah, it's just like there's uh more capacity

0:41:22.440 --> 0:41:26.000
<v Speaker 1>for like wacky bad things to happen, because no one's

0:41:26.000 --> 0:41:28.720
<v Speaker 1>in charge of making sure that when something wacky happens

0:41:28.800 --> 0:41:31.120
<v Speaker 1>is the good kind of wacky. You know, we were

0:41:31.480 --> 0:41:34.080
<v Speaker 1>We're talking about how it's been an eventful a couple

0:41:34.120 --> 0:41:37.160
<v Speaker 1>of weeks for crypto, and one of the things that happened, UM,

0:41:37.280 --> 0:41:41.200
<v Speaker 1>which would probably fall into the sort of UM negative camp,

0:41:41.440 --> 0:41:44.640
<v Speaker 1>was the new SEC chair Gary Gensler, came out and

0:41:44.800 --> 0:41:49.120
<v Speaker 1>started talking about UM token ized stocks or synthetic stocks

0:41:49.280 --> 0:41:53.359
<v Speaker 1>and making some noises about potentially going after those. UM.

0:41:53.640 --> 0:41:57.399
<v Speaker 1>So I'm wondering how worrying is that for you? Um,

0:41:57.880 --> 0:42:01.720
<v Speaker 1>would you potentially CONSI they're delisting those I saw unite

0:42:01.719 --> 0:42:05.040
<v Speaker 1>swap took them off of well at least the front

0:42:05.160 --> 0:42:07.200
<v Speaker 1>end of unice swaps. You can still trade them on

0:42:07.239 --> 0:42:09.320
<v Speaker 1>the actual unit swap code, but you just can't do

0:42:09.400 --> 0:42:12.040
<v Speaker 1>it through the unit swap website. Um, is that something

0:42:12.160 --> 0:42:14.719
<v Speaker 1>you think the industry is just gonna have to do

0:42:14.960 --> 0:42:19.000
<v Speaker 1>going forward? So? Right, so I think basically what what

0:42:19.239 --> 0:42:23.440
<v Speaker 1>Againser said, which is frankly not that shocking, is like,

0:42:24.360 --> 0:42:26.399
<v Speaker 1>if you tokenize the stock, it's or is still sort

0:42:26.400 --> 0:42:29.280
<v Speaker 1>of a stock, and like it's not like it loses

0:42:29.360 --> 0:42:33.640
<v Speaker 1>all regulatory properties UM as soon as you tokenize it. Again,

0:42:33.760 --> 0:42:35.560
<v Speaker 1>not not to put words in his mouth, but I

0:42:36.160 --> 0:42:38.120
<v Speaker 1>wouldn't be surprised if you're start looking at some parts

0:42:38.120 --> 0:42:40.200
<v Speaker 1>of the industry and being like that sure looks like

0:42:40.400 --> 0:42:44.759
<v Speaker 1>and obviously unregistered security being offered with no email ky

0:42:44.840 --> 0:42:49.560
<v Speaker 1>C registration or terms or conditions to anyone in the world,

0:42:49.760 --> 0:42:56.440
<v Speaker 1>including Americans and restricted jurisdictions. That's not generally how brokerages were.

0:42:57.360 --> 0:43:00.280
<v Speaker 1>I think it's sort of like where you know, awfully

0:43:00.320 --> 0:43:03.360
<v Speaker 1>that was coming from UM, and I don't think that

0:43:03.520 --> 0:43:06.799
<v Speaker 1>was a super shocking announcement. I think, like I think

0:43:06.840 --> 0:43:09.080
<v Speaker 1>when you contrast it with what we have on FKS,

0:43:09.239 --> 0:43:12.360
<v Speaker 1>like it's a pretty different situation where we have like,

0:43:12.800 --> 0:43:15.960
<v Speaker 1>first of all, we email ky C everyone fully who

0:43:16.680 --> 0:43:18.520
<v Speaker 1>is able to touch you know, stock and f kis

0:43:18.560 --> 0:43:21.239
<v Speaker 1>at all. Second of all, we restrict it's such that

0:43:21.360 --> 0:43:26.359
<v Speaker 1>Americans can't access them, neither can a number of other jurisdictions. UM.

0:43:26.640 --> 0:43:30.280
<v Speaker 1>We ensure that they're backed, we have an actual license

0:43:30.800 --> 0:43:34.160
<v Speaker 1>from often to offer the products. Um, And it's much

0:43:34.200 --> 0:43:36.200
<v Speaker 1>more like just how like you know, interactive burgers are

0:43:36.200 --> 0:43:39.200
<v Speaker 1>introducing burgers to them operate. And so I think that

0:43:39.320 --> 0:43:42.279
<v Speaker 1>like Gazer wasn't saying like if you tokenize the stock

0:43:42.360 --> 0:43:44.680
<v Speaker 1>it makes it evil. I think like his point was

0:43:44.800 --> 0:43:47.480
<v Speaker 1>like it's it's kind of still stock, you know, if

0:43:47.800 --> 0:43:50.399
<v Speaker 1>like you wouldn't have been able to offer stocks at all,

0:43:50.960 --> 0:43:55.120
<v Speaker 1>like queery, whether you could offer tokenized stocks. Is the

0:43:55.239 --> 0:43:58.600
<v Speaker 1>long term goal that you are offering token of stocks

0:43:58.640 --> 0:44:01.480
<v Speaker 1>to Americans, like either by regulatory changes or by like

0:44:01.600 --> 0:44:04.239
<v Speaker 1>registering as a US exchanged, Like, is this like a

0:44:04.320 --> 0:44:07.120
<v Speaker 1>sort of crypto it's the financial system kind of player.

0:44:07.280 --> 0:44:10.080
<v Speaker 1>Is this like you're a crypto exchange of since and

0:44:10.080 --> 0:44:12.560
<v Speaker 1>I'll let you do. No, it's definitely the first thing

0:44:12.640 --> 0:44:16.400
<v Speaker 1>you said, um, like yeah, very very clearly, that is

0:44:16.520 --> 0:44:19.239
<v Speaker 1>like our our goal here. And I think that like,

0:44:20.040 --> 0:44:21.920
<v Speaker 1>like there there's sort of a roadmap for this in

0:44:22.000 --> 0:44:24.479
<v Speaker 1>the United States, at least sort of the tooganizing party

0:44:24.520 --> 0:44:26.480
<v Speaker 1>think is complicated in the United States. And I do

0:44:26.800 --> 0:44:30.040
<v Speaker 1>think that like no one has quite issue claritite clarity

0:44:30.120 --> 0:44:33.360
<v Speaker 1>on exactly what it means in the u S regulatory

0:44:33.440 --> 0:44:35.760
<v Speaker 1>context to have a token ized stock. I think against

0:44:35.760 --> 0:44:38.200
<v Speaker 1>the start of saying like, well, it certainly isn't like irrelevant,

0:44:38.600 --> 0:44:41.440
<v Speaker 1>like like that's still kind of a stock. Um, It's

0:44:41.480 --> 0:44:43.440
<v Speaker 1>not like when you talk about tognizing it, like what

0:44:43.480 --> 0:44:44.840
<v Speaker 1>does it mean for it to be toganized? Is it

0:44:44.960 --> 0:44:47.440
<v Speaker 1>free floating? How does that work? Who's thesure? Like there's

0:44:47.480 --> 0:44:49.719
<v Speaker 1>a lot of st complicated questions there, but maybe just

0:44:49.800 --> 0:44:51.840
<v Speaker 1>taking a step back, like how it stalks in the

0:44:51.920 --> 0:44:55.440
<v Speaker 1>first place, like just normal non tokenized stocks. Um, I

0:44:55.440 --> 0:44:57.200
<v Speaker 1>don't know. I mean like we f g x u

0:44:57.320 --> 0:45:00.120
<v Speaker 1>S did recently get a Burger dealer license? Like or

0:45:00.320 --> 0:45:02.800
<v Speaker 1>you know, make of that what you will. So in theory,

0:45:02.960 --> 0:45:06.200
<v Speaker 1>one day rather than maybe you know, like I have

0:45:06.280 --> 0:45:10.160
<v Speaker 1>a Schwab account, or I have my like SMPTF and

0:45:11.000 --> 0:45:14.360
<v Speaker 1>a couple other basic things you could there is a

0:45:14.520 --> 0:45:17.560
<v Speaker 1>day in theory in which I could just have I

0:45:17.640 --> 0:45:19.720
<v Speaker 1>might have all that on f t X dot us.

0:45:20.920 --> 0:45:23.000
<v Speaker 1>That's right, And I think that there's like a lot

0:45:23.080 --> 0:45:27.279
<v Speaker 1>of advantages that system, because like it's sort of like

0:45:27.600 --> 0:45:30.440
<v Speaker 1>never fun when you're like, oh boy, I want to

0:45:30.480 --> 0:45:33.080
<v Speaker 1>go like do this thing with my money. Oh wait,

0:45:33.200 --> 0:45:35.840
<v Speaker 1>it's in the wrong pocket. Like you know, I I,

0:45:36.040 --> 0:45:38.800
<v Speaker 1>like wanted to go buy a banana, but it was

0:45:38.840 --> 0:45:40.880
<v Speaker 1>in my Proverge account, or like I want to buy

0:45:40.920 --> 0:45:43.200
<v Speaker 1>a bitcoin, but it was in my bank account, or

0:45:43.239 --> 0:45:45.160
<v Speaker 1>like I want to go buy Tesla, but it was

0:45:45.200 --> 0:45:48.480
<v Speaker 1>on my crypto account. And it takes like three days

0:45:49.160 --> 0:45:52.840
<v Speaker 1>to transfer, you know, between those Unlike like, it's not

0:45:52.960 --> 0:45:55.320
<v Speaker 1>a good user experience. You know, you have to have

0:45:55.400 --> 0:45:58.160
<v Speaker 1>decided days ahead of time what you're most likely to

0:45:58.200 --> 0:46:00.840
<v Speaker 1>want to use your funds for. UM and so I

0:46:00.920 --> 0:46:04.800
<v Speaker 1>do think that there's like real advantages to having a

0:46:04.920 --> 0:46:08.160
<v Speaker 1>single platform where you know, for all the most common

0:46:08.200 --> 0:46:10.520
<v Speaker 1>things you'd want to do with your funds, you can

0:46:10.560 --> 0:46:13.200
<v Speaker 1>do them. And you know, we're moving in that direction

0:46:13.320 --> 0:46:15.000
<v Speaker 1>on the con sumer side in the US, like we

0:46:15.080 --> 0:46:18.040
<v Speaker 1>have obviously Crypto. We have lots of methods here at

0:46:18.080 --> 0:46:21.000
<v Speaker 1>both Crypto and Fiat on and off the exchange. We

0:46:21.160 --> 0:46:23.880
<v Speaker 1>have a debit card that you can get tied to

0:46:23.960 --> 0:46:27.239
<v Speaker 1>your FDS account UM, which will spend whatever you happen

0:46:27.280 --> 0:46:29.640
<v Speaker 1>to have their whether it's Crypto or FIATO or whatever.

0:46:30.239 --> 0:46:32.560
<v Speaker 1>UM and and so you can you know, have your

0:46:32.560 --> 0:46:34.160
<v Speaker 1>funds there you can do your crypto trading, and you

0:46:34.200 --> 0:46:36.920
<v Speaker 1>can also go buy bread and you know, I have

0:46:37.120 --> 0:46:39.680
<v Speaker 1>like for her dealer license coming online and and and

0:46:39.800 --> 0:46:41.440
<v Speaker 1>so I think that is like definitely a part of

0:46:41.480 --> 0:46:45.560
<v Speaker 1>the vision. In the last time that we spoke to

0:46:45.640 --> 0:46:48.600
<v Speaker 1>we talked a little bit about this, but basically, every

0:46:48.719 --> 0:46:52.959
<v Speaker 1>time someone who's sort of like crypto skeptic starts first

0:46:53.000 --> 0:46:55.719
<v Speaker 1>thinking about the space, one of the first questions they

0:46:55.760 --> 0:46:58.840
<v Speaker 1>always ask is about tether. And we talked about this,

0:46:59.040 --> 0:47:03.480
<v Speaker 1>and you're you as a UM I guess the exchange,

0:47:03.520 --> 0:47:07.200
<v Speaker 1>but also with your trading. You're a tether user, and

0:47:07.400 --> 0:47:09.680
<v Speaker 1>you talked a little bit about some of the advantages

0:47:09.840 --> 0:47:11.799
<v Speaker 1>of it last time. But can you talk a little

0:47:11.840 --> 0:47:16.120
<v Speaker 1>bit further about the full experience of interacting with tether

0:47:16.160 --> 0:47:19.000
<v Speaker 1>because people, you know, people of all kinds of conspiracies like,

0:47:19.040 --> 0:47:21.200
<v Speaker 1>oh the money's out there. You never actually no one

0:47:21.239 --> 0:47:24.399
<v Speaker 1>has ever actually sold their tether and gotten us dollar back.

0:47:24.600 --> 0:47:26.880
<v Speaker 1>So forth, can you just talk a little bit about

0:47:26.960 --> 0:47:30.800
<v Speaker 1>your experience, I guess as a tether user and customer

0:47:31.280 --> 0:47:34.040
<v Speaker 1>of what happens when you use tether, when you want

0:47:34.080 --> 0:47:37.759
<v Speaker 1>to redeem tether, etcetera, and how that works as an

0:47:37.880 --> 0:47:42.560
<v Speaker 1>actual tether customer inside totally. I'm actually a little bit

0:47:42.600 --> 0:47:45.200
<v Speaker 1>curious before I jumped in, just like what like, like

0:47:45.400 --> 0:47:47.560
<v Speaker 1>Matt having like, I'm sure there's something that you've like

0:47:48.000 --> 0:47:51.120
<v Speaker 1>seen a lot of people chattering about, Like what's your

0:47:51.200 --> 0:47:53.600
<v Speaker 1>takeaway from what the chatter is like, and also what

0:47:53.719 --> 0:47:56.400
<v Speaker 1>sort of like your trying to like summary or like

0:47:56.560 --> 0:47:58.960
<v Speaker 1>thoughts are on that you know, based on that, and

0:47:59.000 --> 0:48:00.400
<v Speaker 1>then I can sort of dive into what what our

0:48:00.440 --> 0:48:04.359
<v Speaker 1>experiences has been like, ah were to be careful here.

0:48:04.840 --> 0:48:12.320
<v Speaker 1>Um like, tether Is has a strange public relations strategy,

0:48:12.400 --> 0:48:15.160
<v Speaker 1>I guess. I mean, like they talk a lot about

0:48:15.200 --> 0:48:17.440
<v Speaker 1>wanting to get an audit and then don't get an audit.

0:48:18.040 --> 0:48:21.840
<v Speaker 1>They talk a lot about their like high quality commercial

0:48:21.920 --> 0:48:27.279
<v Speaker 1>paper holdings, but don't disclose them because counterparty confidentiality is

0:48:27.360 --> 0:48:30.640
<v Speaker 1>very important to them, which is not true of any

0:48:30.719 --> 0:48:34.640
<v Speaker 1>other holder of commercial paper in the world. Um Like,

0:48:34.760 --> 0:48:37.480
<v Speaker 1>you can just look at like the complete holdings by

0:48:37.560 --> 0:48:41.440
<v Speaker 1>QUSIP of every money market fund, but forgether. It's very

0:48:41.480 --> 0:48:44.600
<v Speaker 1>important that they keep it secret. So if they were

0:48:44.800 --> 0:48:48.400
<v Speaker 1>doing something shady, they sound like what they sound like,

0:48:48.800 --> 0:48:50.960
<v Speaker 1>which doesn't prove that they're doing something shady, but it

0:48:51.120 --> 0:48:54.200
<v Speaker 1>is like it is confidence undermining. I think, yeah, I

0:48:54.280 --> 0:48:56.160
<v Speaker 1>think that's a pretty reasonable way of putting it. I

0:48:56.239 --> 0:49:00.360
<v Speaker 1>think like a pretty pretty odd public relations strategy is

0:49:00.719 --> 0:49:04.400
<v Speaker 1>not an unfair characterization. Um. And I think I'm generally

0:49:04.440 --> 0:49:06.719
<v Speaker 1>sort of like often sort of thought of as a

0:49:07.040 --> 0:49:10.279
<v Speaker 1>tether apologist or something. Is maybe how some people would

0:49:10.360 --> 0:49:15.200
<v Speaker 1>would phrase it. Um. I certainly wouldn't necessarily want to

0:49:15.239 --> 0:49:17.520
<v Speaker 1>say that they've like historically always chose them the best

0:49:17.719 --> 0:49:21.040
<v Speaker 1>PR strategy or or anything that sounds vaguely like that.

0:49:21.840 --> 0:49:23.560
<v Speaker 1>You know, I can serve a case where there's a

0:49:23.600 --> 0:49:25.160
<v Speaker 1>lot of smoke, but but I don't think there's really

0:49:25.280 --> 0:49:28.920
<v Speaker 1>much fire. But but I like get like there is

0:49:28.960 --> 0:49:31.640
<v Speaker 1>smoke and like you know, and I think that's sort

0:49:31.640 --> 0:49:34.160
<v Speaker 1>of like what's what's going on? Well, for one thing

0:49:34.200 --> 0:49:37.719
<v Speaker 1>is sort of like curious PR strategy, But putting that

0:49:38.000 --> 0:49:40.239
<v Speaker 1>that aside for a second, like, you know, how about

0:49:40.280 --> 0:49:43.080
<v Speaker 1>creating redeeming tether, Like can you do it? You can

0:49:43.200 --> 0:49:45.200
<v Speaker 1>do it, we have done, We've done billions. It's a

0:49:45.280 --> 0:49:48.440
<v Speaker 1>messy process, like it works, but it's you know, you

0:49:48.480 --> 0:49:50.640
<v Speaker 1>sort of look at creating redeeming USCC and it's like

0:49:50.680 --> 0:49:53.560
<v Speaker 1>all right, like they have their U s dollars in

0:49:53.640 --> 0:49:55.719
<v Speaker 1>a US bank account is the same bank that every

0:49:55.800 --> 0:49:59.400
<v Speaker 1>Nelson crypto uses. Takes like thirty seconds to you know

0:49:59.480 --> 0:50:02.719
<v Speaker 1>transfer even like go created, yeah, thirty seconds later they're

0:50:02.800 --> 0:50:05.160
<v Speaker 1>they're sending you the tokens. You can redeem it thirty

0:50:05.200 --> 0:50:07.400
<v Speaker 1>seconds later, like you see the funds in your account,

0:50:07.800 --> 0:50:11.960
<v Speaker 1>no fees. A very very kind of like straightforward, smooth process.

0:50:12.239 --> 0:50:13.879
<v Speaker 1>And I think you look at Tether and it's like, well,

0:50:14.239 --> 0:50:17.080
<v Speaker 1>it's a messy process, and I think like every piece

0:50:17.160 --> 0:50:20.080
<v Speaker 1>of mess in the process like makes it much harder

0:50:20.480 --> 0:50:22.520
<v Speaker 1>for them to have what would look like is self

0:50:22.560 --> 0:50:27.160
<v Speaker 1>evidently reasonable process. Like it just sort of like you know,

0:50:27.440 --> 0:50:29.480
<v Speaker 1>makes it sort of like really heightens the sense of

0:50:29.600 --> 0:50:32.600
<v Speaker 1>like something weird going on. I think that that's sort

0:50:32.600 --> 0:50:35.279
<v Speaker 1>of like is the answer though, is that like it

0:50:35.440 --> 0:50:38.440
<v Speaker 1>is messy, but but like the like the funds are,

0:50:38.560 --> 0:50:42.600
<v Speaker 1>they're like we see like real which admitting flows into

0:50:42.640 --> 0:50:45.680
<v Speaker 1>Tether from a lot of places, like massive ones that

0:50:46.080 --> 0:50:48.600
<v Speaker 1>you know then lead to market makers selling and creating

0:50:49.160 --> 0:50:51.920
<v Speaker 1>and sending you know, real billions of dollars to Tether's

0:50:51.960 --> 0:50:54.960
<v Speaker 1>bank account, you know, to create it and like you know,

0:50:55.080 --> 0:50:57.800
<v Speaker 1>have have relationships with like father and the banks and

0:50:57.880 --> 0:51:00.480
<v Speaker 1>and everything else involved, and like every think sort of

0:51:00.560 --> 0:51:02.920
<v Speaker 1>checks out in a in a messy way, and then

0:51:02.960 --> 0:51:04.200
<v Speaker 1>you can start of give to the question of like,

0:51:04.200 --> 0:51:05.960
<v Speaker 1>all right, well, what's their business? Mouth is probably getting

0:51:06.000 --> 0:51:07.960
<v Speaker 1>yield on the dollars? How are they doing that? I

0:51:08.000 --> 0:51:11.359
<v Speaker 1>don't know, you know, like some commercial paper like stuff, um,

0:51:12.000 --> 0:51:15.400
<v Speaker 1>and you know, I think it's like one of these

0:51:15.480 --> 0:51:17.120
<v Speaker 1>things were like if you want to try and argue

0:51:17.160 --> 0:51:19.440
<v Speaker 1>but whether it t other's worth likes or like a

0:51:19.520 --> 0:51:21.839
<v Speaker 1>dollar in a penny, I think that's like a pretty

0:51:21.880 --> 0:51:24.440
<v Speaker 1>reasonable argument, and like I don't I don't want to

0:51:24.440 --> 0:51:26.560
<v Speaker 1>take a strong stance on that, Like I I certainly

0:51:26.600 --> 0:51:28.960
<v Speaker 1>don't want to like strongly are you against any any

0:51:29.040 --> 0:51:31.080
<v Speaker 1>stance there? But but I think that like when the

0:51:31.160 --> 0:51:33.000
<v Speaker 1>argument gets like is it worth like about a dollar

0:51:33.120 --> 0:51:36.120
<v Speaker 1>or like about thirty cents, like anything answers about a dollar,

0:51:36.760 --> 0:51:39.560
<v Speaker 1>and like you know, the reason that it is fundamentally

0:51:39.640 --> 0:51:42.560
<v Speaker 1>like basically backed by like you know about the right

0:51:42.640 --> 0:51:44.759
<v Speaker 1>number probabble bit more than the right number of like

0:51:45.120 --> 0:51:47.760
<v Speaker 1>kind of dollar like assets just in like a system

0:51:47.800 --> 0:51:51.000
<v Speaker 1>which is like a little bit messy in every possible place,

0:51:52.760 --> 0:51:55.880
<v Speaker 1>so they might stretch for yield, but like by buying

0:51:56.040 --> 0:51:59.719
<v Speaker 1>like slightly nice your commercial paper where they might break

0:51:59.760 --> 0:52:02.960
<v Speaker 1>the but go to like rather than that's like yeah,

0:52:03.040 --> 0:52:05.279
<v Speaker 1>that that's my like and so I say this without

0:52:05.360 --> 0:52:07.600
<v Speaker 1>knowing like exactly what their commercial papers like this is

0:52:07.680 --> 0:52:09.680
<v Speaker 1>sort of like that that's a twist on it, which

0:52:09.719 --> 0:52:12.239
<v Speaker 1>I'm just sort of inferring the details of that last

0:52:12.280 --> 0:52:14.719
<v Speaker 1>piece based on like all the other interactions that serve

0:52:14.719 --> 0:52:16.960
<v Speaker 1>if we've had with them. They could be putting it

0:52:17.000 --> 0:52:18.600
<v Speaker 1>all into bitcoin, but that would just be sort of

0:52:18.640 --> 0:52:21.400
<v Speaker 1>a strange move on their part because like they they

0:52:21.440 --> 0:52:23.760
<v Speaker 1>have like a good business putting it into commercial pactly

0:52:23.800 --> 0:52:27.279
<v Speaker 1>like they've got lots of legitimate, profitable good businesses. They

0:52:27.320 --> 0:52:29.080
<v Speaker 1>don't need to do that. Also is unclear why they

0:52:29.120 --> 0:52:32.120
<v Speaker 1>would do that, Like it's sort of like incredibly risky.

0:52:32.800 --> 0:52:34.080
<v Speaker 1>Any of the other thing is like you get to

0:52:34.160 --> 0:52:36.799
<v Speaker 1>know that people involved here they're not like that they

0:52:36.920 --> 0:52:39.680
<v Speaker 1>really really aren't scammers. Like it's really not like you

0:52:39.760 --> 0:52:41.800
<v Speaker 1>come away dealing with them, you're like they're selling me

0:52:41.880 --> 0:52:44.880
<v Speaker 1>stake oil, Like they're too waitly lying about everything, and

0:52:45.080 --> 0:52:47.640
<v Speaker 1>like I'm pretty sure that like nothing is like that's

0:52:47.719 --> 0:52:50.200
<v Speaker 1>not at all sort of like the interactions that that

0:52:50.280 --> 0:52:54.000
<v Speaker 1>people have with them. Did you watch the CNBC interview, Yeah,

0:52:54.080 --> 0:52:57.239
<v Speaker 1>there is that, the one with the um with the

0:52:57.480 --> 0:53:01.399
<v Speaker 1>legal counsel. Yeah. Yeah. I think they back themselves into

0:53:01.440 --> 0:53:04.320
<v Speaker 1>a lot of positions where like they sort of like

0:53:04.480 --> 0:53:08.319
<v Speaker 1>make it probably basically correct claims, but ones in which

0:53:08.360 --> 0:53:10.160
<v Speaker 1>they're not going to, as you said, like they don't

0:53:10.160 --> 0:53:15.080
<v Speaker 1>feel comfortable elaborating maybe for like just sort of like uh,

0:53:15.239 --> 0:53:18.719
<v Speaker 1>you know, ethical reasons, maybe because like the truth is

0:53:18.800 --> 0:53:22.000
<v Speaker 1>like a little bit messier than they'd like to say. Um,

0:53:22.480 --> 0:53:24.520
<v Speaker 1>but but before a reason to make these claims and

0:53:24.560 --> 0:53:27.520
<v Speaker 1>then like refuse to back them up, and and that's

0:53:27.560 --> 0:53:30.080
<v Speaker 1>like never a good look. Although I think it is

0:53:30.160 --> 0:53:33.320
<v Speaker 1>not that like there's no relationship between the claims and reality.

0:53:33.360 --> 0:53:35.920
<v Speaker 1>I think he's just like one of those other cases.

0:53:36.640 --> 0:53:39.960
<v Speaker 1>This might be an unfair question, but I'd be interested

0:53:40.000 --> 0:53:42.800
<v Speaker 1>in your answer, Like if if the worst of the

0:53:42.920 --> 0:53:47.840
<v Speaker 1>conspiracy theories were true about Tether, like I don't know,

0:53:47.960 --> 0:53:51.200
<v Speaker 1>say it's investing, it's investing in commercial paper, but it's

0:53:51.239 --> 0:53:56.040
<v Speaker 1>investing in like Chinese commercial paper and commercial exactly, and

0:53:56.120 --> 0:53:58.640
<v Speaker 1>it all goes like bottom up, which which is a

0:53:58.880 --> 0:54:02.560
<v Speaker 1>rumor that's out there. Of course, um and tether collapses.

0:54:03.239 --> 0:54:08.279
<v Speaker 1>What would that mean for bitcoin and the wider crypto space? Yeah,

0:54:08.480 --> 0:54:10.000
<v Speaker 1>so I do you want me to take like the

0:54:10.080 --> 0:54:12.880
<v Speaker 1>fantastical version if that word tether goes to zero or

0:54:12.960 --> 0:54:14.480
<v Speaker 1>dru me try and take like what I think sort

0:54:14.480 --> 0:54:17.080
<v Speaker 1>of the most approximate, like vaguely plausible version of it.

0:54:17.160 --> 0:54:21.640
<v Speaker 1>How about both? So maybe first I'll talk about the

0:54:21.680 --> 0:54:24.640
<v Speaker 1>sort of plausible version. So like what if they took

0:54:24.920 --> 0:54:27.719
<v Speaker 1>a third of the money that they had and put

0:54:27.800 --> 0:54:31.560
<v Speaker 1>it in like sort be here commercial paper from China,

0:54:31.840 --> 0:54:35.440
<v Speaker 1>like be here for China commercial paper, and and then

0:54:35.640 --> 0:54:36.879
<v Speaker 1>you know, there's sort of a run in the bank

0:54:36.960 --> 0:54:39.440
<v Speaker 1>in China as looks like you know, however that that

0:54:39.480 --> 0:54:42.920
<v Speaker 1>could happen, um and uh, And it turns out that

0:54:43.040 --> 0:54:47.680
<v Speaker 1>like this beat your commercial paper like to bolded on

0:54:47.840 --> 0:54:50.640
<v Speaker 1>average or something, And so you ended up with like,

0:54:51.400 --> 0:54:54.719
<v Speaker 1>you know, a twelve percent loss of the tether treasury, right,

0:54:55.200 --> 0:54:58.239
<v Speaker 1>you know percent or something like that. Like let's say

0:54:58.280 --> 0:55:01.040
<v Speaker 1>that's where you ended up, which at the like you know,

0:55:01.760 --> 0:55:05.360
<v Speaker 1>sort of like very negative but like not completely implausible outcome.

0:55:06.120 --> 0:55:08.480
<v Speaker 1>What happens then? So tether is sort of in some

0:55:08.719 --> 0:55:12.200
<v Speaker 1>some mystical sense, is worth eighty eight cents or well

0:55:12.239 --> 0:55:14.080
<v Speaker 1>it's worth it at least eight eight sense, right, like

0:55:14.160 --> 0:55:16.520
<v Speaker 1>you can redeem it sort of maybe for eight cents.

0:55:17.080 --> 0:55:18.920
<v Speaker 1>You know what's the loss? The loss there's like ten

0:55:18.960 --> 0:55:23.839
<v Speaker 1>billion or something. One possibility, obviously, is like nothing happens, right,

0:55:24.239 --> 0:55:27.719
<v Speaker 1>like unless people try to redeem almost all the tether

0:55:27.800 --> 0:55:31.640
<v Speaker 1>and existence like they could keep processing. Maybe it doesn't

0:55:31.680 --> 0:55:33.399
<v Speaker 1>even comes out. Maybe it comes out and for whatever

0:55:33.440 --> 0:55:36.920
<v Speaker 1>rective because system doesn't seem to care. Um. That is

0:55:36.960 --> 0:55:39.120
<v Speaker 1>like I think a plausible answer, right, it's just like

0:55:39.239 --> 0:55:42.680
<v Speaker 1>weirdly things continue on as if that didn't happen. Um.

0:55:42.800 --> 0:55:44.319
<v Speaker 1>But also maybe there's a little bit of a run

0:55:44.360 --> 0:55:47.960
<v Speaker 1>on tether um the their banking partners start to get

0:55:48.080 --> 0:55:52.279
<v Speaker 1>nervous redeeming. It becomes very difficult. Maybe they don't give

0:55:52.280 --> 0:55:54.680
<v Speaker 1>you a dollar on the dollar for redemptions, maybe they

0:55:55.040 --> 0:55:57.360
<v Speaker 1>limit them. They say, look, the world can only redeem

0:55:57.719 --> 0:56:01.320
<v Speaker 1>one billion dollars per week total of tether maximum, and

0:56:01.360 --> 0:56:04.800
<v Speaker 1>the world wants to redeem billion, and so there's like

0:56:04.960 --> 0:56:06.799
<v Speaker 1>a race to redeem your tethers, and most people are

0:56:06.800 --> 0:56:11.080
<v Speaker 1>not getting filled on those redemptions. Tether crashes down cents

0:56:11.120 --> 0:56:14.160
<v Speaker 1>on the dollar, and markets you know, there's a lot

0:56:14.239 --> 0:56:17.360
<v Speaker 1>of people who are stockpiling tether have losses of you know,

0:56:18.880 --> 0:56:21.480
<v Speaker 1>and then I think sort of like, you know, there's

0:56:21.520 --> 0:56:25.800
<v Speaker 1>some regulatory crackdowns on stable coins, and these mostly continue

0:56:25.840 --> 0:56:28.200
<v Speaker 1>on as they were before, except that like you know,

0:56:28.719 --> 0:56:32.120
<v Speaker 1>ten billion dollars total was lost between tether holders. Um,

0:56:32.400 --> 0:56:34.879
<v Speaker 1>maybe they recover that eventually, right, Like if the tether

0:56:35.000 --> 0:56:38.040
<v Speaker 1>is effectively backed by the combined equity of bit finex

0:56:38.160 --> 0:56:41.359
<v Speaker 1>and tether, then like maybe that's like maybe it all

0:56:41.440 --> 0:56:44.480
<v Speaker 1>ends up kind of okay, although like certainly, like you know,

0:56:44.600 --> 0:56:46.839
<v Speaker 1>not in the liquid sense, you know, frankly, I think

0:56:46.840 --> 0:56:48.359
<v Speaker 1>they could probably do a lot of things to try

0:56:48.400 --> 0:56:51.719
<v Speaker 1>and plug that in the meantime. But like that that's

0:56:51.719 --> 0:56:53.640
<v Speaker 1>sort of like I think roughly how that that would end,

0:56:53.719 --> 0:56:55.120
<v Speaker 1>Like you would see each other. It gets sort of

0:56:55.160 --> 0:56:57.719
<v Speaker 1>like repriced to like you know, ten cents center or whatever,

0:56:57.880 --> 0:57:01.160
<v Speaker 1>fifteen cents center, I don't know, you know, it'd be

0:57:01.280 --> 0:57:03.279
<v Speaker 1>like it's dock split and tether it'xcept you know where

0:57:03.280 --> 0:57:06.440
<v Speaker 1>you didn't get more tethers and yeah, bitcoin tether and

0:57:06.560 --> 0:57:09.400
<v Speaker 1>start training a different price price from bitcoin USD on

0:57:09.560 --> 0:57:12.600
<v Speaker 1>major exchanges. The pig would like mostly break, there'd be

0:57:12.719 --> 0:57:15.480
<v Speaker 1>like this absolute race redemptions fees for a dem would

0:57:15.480 --> 0:57:17.560
<v Speaker 1>go up to a percent or two. They kind of

0:57:17.640 --> 0:57:20.040
<v Speaker 1>slowly get through. People make a bunch of money doing

0:57:20.080 --> 0:57:22.720
<v Speaker 1>the arbitrage. It would be a really bad look regulars

0:57:22.760 --> 0:57:24.680
<v Speaker 1>who cracked down and stable points in crypto in general,

0:57:25.080 --> 0:57:27.520
<v Speaker 1>and life would go on and probably the bitcoin crashes

0:57:27.600 --> 0:57:31.600
<v Speaker 1>ten percent on like the bad pr that's like sort

0:57:31.640 --> 0:57:35.360
<v Speaker 1>of roughly my guests like how that would play out? Um,

0:57:35.440 --> 0:57:37.000
<v Speaker 1>I think it's like, would not be disastrous for the

0:57:37.040 --> 0:57:40.680
<v Speaker 1>cript because systems, but clearly bad. Now we can start

0:57:40.720 --> 0:57:43.320
<v Speaker 1>to take this other hypothetical of like what if it's

0:57:43.360 --> 0:57:45.520
<v Speaker 1>worth as a row, Right, what if they like put

0:57:46.200 --> 0:57:49.560
<v Speaker 1>a percent of it was in commercial paper of like

0:57:50.080 --> 0:57:55.040
<v Speaker 1>one company and that one company goes bankrupt or something

0:57:55.080 --> 0:57:57.280
<v Speaker 1>sort of equivalent to that, Right, Like what if somehow

0:57:57.360 --> 0:58:01.560
<v Speaker 1>they lose the vast majority of the tether treasury. That's

0:58:01.880 --> 0:58:04.680
<v Speaker 1>that's way worse. Like now, all of a sudden you

0:58:04.720 --> 0:58:07.760
<v Speaker 1>have like a seventy billion dollar loss or whatever in crypto.

0:58:08.160 --> 0:58:09.920
<v Speaker 1>I can't remember the current market gap, but like that's

0:58:10.000 --> 0:58:12.640
<v Speaker 1>that's the order. You know, what's that mean? Well? Tether

0:58:13.320 --> 0:58:16.960
<v Speaker 1>like BTC tether markets due to infinity, I guess you know,

0:58:17.440 --> 0:58:20.600
<v Speaker 1>like like he probably gets it's it's you know, delisted

0:58:20.680 --> 0:58:22.720
<v Speaker 1>from some venues. So there are a lot of bitcoin

0:58:22.800 --> 0:58:26.080
<v Speaker 1>tether futures out there. Now this kind of a fun one, right,

0:58:26.440 --> 0:58:28.800
<v Speaker 1>what if you have a quarterly bitcoin tether future and

0:58:28.840 --> 0:58:32.920
<v Speaker 1>tether goes to zero? Like, what's your future expired? Too? Is?

0:58:32.920 --> 0:58:35.840
<v Speaker 1>You know, sorry infinity? And like how do you like

0:58:35.920 --> 0:58:37.840
<v Speaker 1>what's the pen l transfer there? Like are you trying

0:58:37.840 --> 0:58:43.080
<v Speaker 1>to transfer infinity tethers each resido dollars from the losers

0:58:43.160 --> 0:58:47.320
<v Speaker 1>the winners on that from the shorts of loongs like okay,

0:58:47.400 --> 0:58:49.800
<v Speaker 1>so that that like some exchange you would have to

0:58:49.840 --> 0:58:52.840
<v Speaker 1>contend with that. And there really are a significant open

0:58:52.920 --> 0:58:55.480
<v Speaker 1>interests in bitcoin to other futures. Now, if it's a

0:58:55.560 --> 0:58:58.320
<v Speaker 1>ten percent move, maybe something a little whacky happens. A

0:58:58.320 --> 0:58:59.800
<v Speaker 1>lot of people thought they had a hedge and their

0:58:59.800 --> 0:59:02.400
<v Speaker 1>head was not really a hedge. Um, but like you

0:59:02.560 --> 0:59:04.800
<v Speaker 1>still expirem just like expires of forty four k instead

0:59:04.800 --> 0:59:07.000
<v Speaker 1>of for d k. Right, if it's actually going close

0:59:07.040 --> 0:59:10.400
<v Speaker 1>to zerow honestly think that a lot of exchange, would

0:59:10.400 --> 0:59:14.320
<v Speaker 1>you sort of lie? Right? They just like silently removed

0:59:14.360 --> 0:59:16.520
<v Speaker 1>the t from the end of the markets and hope

0:59:16.560 --> 0:59:19.560
<v Speaker 1>no one noticed, and like the indexes would be steriously

0:59:19.680 --> 0:59:24.680
<v Speaker 1>change and then there would be like like thiss of

0:59:24.760 --> 0:59:29.000
<v Speaker 1>open interest in them which was collateralized fifty by tether

0:59:29.120 --> 0:59:31.560
<v Speaker 1>from users, and the tether's now worth zero, and the

0:59:31.640 --> 0:59:33.880
<v Speaker 1>exchange would have to choose between taking a massive loss

0:59:33.960 --> 0:59:36.760
<v Speaker 1>or doing a massive claw back, or you know, it

0:59:37.120 --> 0:59:40.320
<v Speaker 1>would be a mess. In other words, like like like

0:59:40.440 --> 0:59:43.880
<v Speaker 1>a tether, like a bitcoin tether future is implicitly a

0:59:44.000 --> 0:59:47.880
<v Speaker 1>Bitcoin us D future, and when tether starts being us D,

0:59:48.080 --> 0:59:49.920
<v Speaker 1>they just sort of say, well, we really mentioned in

0:59:50.040 --> 0:59:52.439
<v Speaker 1>us that's like my honest guess about what would happen

0:59:52.480 --> 0:59:55.920
<v Speaker 1>on some venues like and and But of course that

0:59:55.960 --> 0:59:58.440
<v Speaker 1>doesn't solve It's it's an interesting question because it's like,

0:59:58.600 --> 1:00:02.240
<v Speaker 1>if you are like taking a position on tether, are

1:00:02.280 --> 1:00:05.320
<v Speaker 1>you implicitly taking a U s D position or are

1:00:05.320 --> 1:00:08.120
<v Speaker 1>you implicitly like betting on the credit risk? And the

1:00:08.240 --> 1:00:11.840
<v Speaker 1>answer is, if you're taking a tether USD future like

1:00:11.960 --> 1:00:14.160
<v Speaker 1>a U S T T gets U S T U

1:00:14.280 --> 1:00:17.400
<v Speaker 1>s D futures position, you're clearly taking a credit risk position.

1:00:17.600 --> 1:00:19.200
<v Speaker 1>But if you're putting on it, yeah, but if if

1:00:19.240 --> 1:00:21.960
<v Speaker 1>it's a bitcoin tether. It's probably exactly no when he's

1:00:22.040 --> 1:00:25.160
<v Speaker 1>using that, not no one but like open interest is

1:00:25.200 --> 1:00:28.480
<v Speaker 1>trying to bet on bit, not tether. On this note, uh,

1:00:28.600 --> 1:00:30.320
<v Speaker 1>And I want to just talk a little bit, make

1:00:30.320 --> 1:00:31.760
<v Speaker 1>sure we get a little bit more to some of

1:00:31.840 --> 1:00:34.640
<v Speaker 1>the interesting products you have f t X. There is

1:00:34.760 --> 1:00:37.919
<v Speaker 1>like you have like this, it's an inverse or there's

1:00:37.960 --> 1:00:40.640
<v Speaker 1>like a short tether. Is it a short tether future

1:00:40.800 --> 1:00:44.160
<v Speaker 1>or like a three x short both and yeah, both,

1:00:44.200 --> 1:00:47.120
<v Speaker 1>But actually like that's been a fantastic performer because or

1:00:47.240 --> 1:00:49.280
<v Speaker 1>what is it, like a three x long tether thing

1:00:49.360 --> 1:00:53.080
<v Speaker 1>that's just been like this position product that he's done

1:00:53.080 --> 1:00:57.120
<v Speaker 1>pretty well. That's just because basically harvesting premium from all

1:00:57.280 --> 1:01:00.320
<v Speaker 1>the people that are betting on tether's collapse. Like explain

1:01:00.400 --> 1:01:03.040
<v Speaker 1>that product. I think it's basically right. So like right

1:01:03.080 --> 1:01:05.400
<v Speaker 1>now I look at the tether. So we have on

1:01:05.800 --> 1:01:07.800
<v Speaker 1>ft X, we have a U S T t against

1:01:07.880 --> 1:01:10.960
<v Speaker 1>us D future. It's you know, a cash settled future

1:01:11.360 --> 1:01:13.920
<v Speaker 1>on the USD price of tether. And so this is

1:01:14.040 --> 1:01:20.000
<v Speaker 1>explicitly a credit risk product. And you know, and so

1:01:20.200 --> 1:01:22.000
<v Speaker 1>you can ask what is it trading at so spa

1:01:22.480 --> 1:01:25.920
<v Speaker 1>U S D t U s D is currently at one,

1:01:26.640 --> 1:01:29.520
<v Speaker 1>so it's it's trading at a dollar and there's millions

1:01:29.560 --> 1:01:31.760
<v Speaker 1>of dollars bid on both sides of that one basis

1:01:31.800 --> 1:01:35.400
<v Speaker 1>point wide market. Now you look at the quarterly tether futures,

1:01:35.760 --> 1:01:41.200
<v Speaker 1>so these are futures expiring in about two months September um,

1:01:41.280 --> 1:01:44.200
<v Speaker 1>and they're currently there's forty million dollars of open interest

1:01:44.360 --> 1:01:47.080
<v Speaker 1>right now on these on FTX and they're currently trading

1:01:47.120 --> 1:01:51.080
<v Speaker 1>forty cents under you're training. What that means is that, like,

1:01:51.800 --> 1:01:53.400
<v Speaker 1>you know, the market, if you wanted to read it

1:01:53.480 --> 1:01:56.440
<v Speaker 1>this way, is pricing in you know, forty BIPs per

1:01:56.760 --> 1:02:00.440
<v Speaker 1>month or per two months, so twenty a month of

1:02:01.240 --> 1:02:04.680
<v Speaker 1>credit risk and tether every month that tether doesn't crash,

1:02:05.480 --> 1:02:07.480
<v Speaker 1>like everyone who thought it was betting it was getting

1:02:07.480 --> 1:02:09.520
<v Speaker 1>crash like bleeds a little bit, and every who bet

1:02:09.560 --> 1:02:11.680
<v Speaker 1>that it wasn't giving crash gains a little bit and

1:02:12.760 --> 1:02:16.000
<v Speaker 1>not surprisingly, like the world is divided into two people,

1:02:16.080 --> 1:02:17.800
<v Speaker 1>not three people. These people are the people who think

1:02:17.800 --> 1:02:19.880
<v Speaker 1>it won't crash and the people who think it will.

1:02:20.440 --> 1:02:22.120
<v Speaker 1>There aren't people who think it's gonna go up to

1:02:22.160 --> 1:02:24.960
<v Speaker 1>two dollars. It's like a massive bowl on the price

1:02:25.040 --> 1:02:27.800
<v Speaker 1>of tether like one dollars through what you're shooting for. Um.

1:02:28.080 --> 1:02:30.720
<v Speaker 1>And so because of this, like no one is like

1:02:30.800 --> 1:02:32.520
<v Speaker 1>trying to buy this up above a dollar, like the

1:02:32.560 --> 1:02:35.160
<v Speaker 1>words between the people shorting in at a dollar and

1:02:35.200 --> 1:02:37.120
<v Speaker 1>the people who are lunging it below a dollar. So

1:02:37.200 --> 1:02:39.920
<v Speaker 1>it's gonna settle below a dollar almost certainly. With with

1:02:40.000 --> 1:02:42.400
<v Speaker 1>some cavats we get to actually there's some weird market dynamics.

1:02:42.480 --> 1:02:44.919
<v Speaker 1>But um, but you know, because you always create blow

1:02:44.920 --> 1:02:48.120
<v Speaker 1>a dollar basically and it never has blown down, right,

1:02:48.200 --> 1:02:50.120
<v Speaker 1>and so like just you know, I think this is

1:02:50.160 --> 1:02:54.640
<v Speaker 1>a prediction market, right like every year exactly every year

1:02:54.680 --> 1:02:57.120
<v Speaker 1>that tether doesn't default, Like that's a little bit of

1:02:57.160 --> 1:02:59.320
<v Speaker 1>basing en update against the like tether is going to

1:02:59.400 --> 1:03:02.040
<v Speaker 1>default philosophy, and it's a little bit of enoughing towards

1:03:02.080 --> 1:03:05.760
<v Speaker 1>the like tether is worth a dollar philosophy. Um. So

1:03:05.840 --> 1:03:08.080
<v Speaker 1>if you think about a CDs, right, twenty pips per month,

1:03:08.360 --> 1:03:10.479
<v Speaker 1>that's what that's like three two and a half percent

1:03:10.560 --> 1:03:14.080
<v Speaker 1>a year that this is trading under. You know, is

1:03:14.160 --> 1:03:16.320
<v Speaker 1>that first of it's not an insane number, right, if

1:03:16.360 --> 1:03:19.720
<v Speaker 1>there's a something that yeah, that's right, you know, if

1:03:19.760 --> 1:03:22.160
<v Speaker 1>this we're training at twenty percent under that would be

1:03:22.160 --> 1:03:24.080
<v Speaker 1>an insane number. Like that's the kind of thing where

1:03:24.120 --> 1:03:26.600
<v Speaker 1>like it's been five years and tether hasn't imploded, like

1:03:26.720 --> 1:03:29.240
<v Speaker 1>already your your your like your thesis is not looking

1:03:29.280 --> 1:03:32.280
<v Speaker 1>so good, Like at two and a half percent a year,

1:03:32.320 --> 1:03:33.920
<v Speaker 1>I think that's too big of a discount, But like

1:03:34.240 --> 1:03:36.400
<v Speaker 1>I could be wrong on that, you know, I certainly

1:03:36.440 --> 1:03:38.000
<v Speaker 1>like you know that you can't look at history and

1:03:38.080 --> 1:03:41.280
<v Speaker 1>be like two percent years obviously too big of a discount.

1:03:41.440 --> 1:03:43.800
<v Speaker 1>I would say that's tight versus their pr. Oh yeah,

1:03:43.840 --> 1:03:46.560
<v Speaker 1>absolutely right, this is serve And that's sort of what's

1:03:46.600 --> 1:03:48.600
<v Speaker 1>going on, right, Like it's sort of trading halfway between

1:03:48.920 --> 1:03:51.320
<v Speaker 1>their pr on the one hand and the fact that

1:03:51.440 --> 1:03:55.200
<v Speaker 1>that people successfully redeem it on the other hand. Right, Yeah,

1:03:55.280 --> 1:03:57.520
<v Speaker 1>I think that like if you have like some experience

1:03:57.600 --> 1:03:59.640
<v Speaker 1>and trap by like the fact that people have a

1:03:59.640 --> 1:04:01.800
<v Speaker 1>success where he deemed it for some like single digit

1:04:01.960 --> 1:04:05.040
<v Speaker 1>number of years is like only so incouraged. And I

1:04:05.080 --> 1:04:07.000
<v Speaker 1>don't want to frame that as like this should make

1:04:07.040 --> 1:04:10.080
<v Speaker 1>you infinitely encouraged about it or anything. And I really

1:04:10.120 --> 1:04:12.320
<v Speaker 1>don't want to push back into people who think it

1:04:12.320 --> 1:04:15.080
<v Speaker 1>should be at a two percent for your discount, not

1:04:15.320 --> 1:04:17.560
<v Speaker 1>not not saying necessarily agree with them, but like I

1:04:17.840 --> 1:04:19.960
<v Speaker 1>don't think they have a crazy position at all. Right,

1:04:20.480 --> 1:04:22.360
<v Speaker 1>The thing I wanted to push back into the people

1:04:22.400 --> 1:04:25.240
<v Speaker 1>who think it should have like at per your discount,

1:04:25.720 --> 1:04:28.520
<v Speaker 1>you know, this is like just not worth anything like

1:04:28.600 --> 1:04:30.920
<v Speaker 1>a dollar position, which like I think there's a lot

1:04:30.960 --> 1:04:34.320
<v Speaker 1>of evidence that that position is like not really right, um,

1:04:34.760 --> 1:04:36.280
<v Speaker 1>Whereas I think when you get to the questions like

1:04:36.280 --> 1:04:38.160
<v Speaker 1>should this be worth a dollar or like a little

1:04:38.200 --> 1:04:40.840
<v Speaker 1>bit less? Think of his commercial paper, right, like what

1:04:40.960 --> 1:04:43.520
<v Speaker 1>you tell the commercial paper trade at you know, a

1:04:43.640 --> 1:04:47.800
<v Speaker 1>sort of synthetic commercial paper, commercial paper whatever, you know,

1:04:47.920 --> 1:04:49.560
<v Speaker 1>And the answer is like, I don't know, yeah, you

1:04:49.600 --> 1:04:53.720
<v Speaker 1>know sort of like, um, I could tell we could

1:04:53.800 --> 1:04:56.680
<v Speaker 1>we could talk about this for like another hour and

1:04:56.720 --> 1:04:59.760
<v Speaker 1>a half probably, um, but I know Matt has to

1:04:59.800 --> 1:05:03.200
<v Speaker 1>go because the Archagos Report is calling him and I

1:05:03.360 --> 1:05:06.200
<v Speaker 1>have to go feed a puppy. We should try to

1:05:06.280 --> 1:05:08.600
<v Speaker 1>Maybe we should make this like a regular catch up

1:05:09.000 --> 1:05:10.400
<v Speaker 1>that we can do every once in a while. That

1:05:10.440 --> 1:05:14.280
<v Speaker 1>would be fun. I would love to do that. Yeah,

1:05:14.400 --> 1:05:16.680
<v Speaker 1>this is this is This is a real treat And

1:05:17.040 --> 1:05:20.120
<v Speaker 1>thanks to both of you for coming out, and absolutely

1:05:20.160 --> 1:05:22.320
<v Speaker 1>would love to do it again. Yeah, this is super fun.

1:05:22.360 --> 1:05:25.400
<v Speaker 1>I totally do you great? Yeah, me as well, Thank

1:05:25.480 --> 1:05:43.920
<v Speaker 1>you guys, Thanks gov Um well Joe. I enjoyed that conversation.

1:05:43.960 --> 1:05:46.320
<v Speaker 1>It was nice to catch up with Sam as always,

1:05:46.480 --> 1:05:48.600
<v Speaker 1>and I am very curious to see what he does

1:05:48.760 --> 1:05:52.040
<v Speaker 1>with million dollars um. One thing that struck me was

1:05:52.160 --> 1:05:55.640
<v Speaker 1>his sort of vision for the ultimate end state of

1:05:55.760 --> 1:05:59.400
<v Speaker 1>the exchange, Like this idea of centralizing all your money

1:05:59.560 --> 1:06:03.960
<v Speaker 1>in one place, not just as not just for your investments,

1:06:04.040 --> 1:06:06.880
<v Speaker 1>so you're investing in stocks, in crypto, but also for

1:06:07.040 --> 1:06:09.920
<v Speaker 1>payments like that was pretty intriguing. Yeah, I thought that

1:06:10.040 --> 1:06:12.560
<v Speaker 1>was really interesting, and I, you know, it really does

1:06:12.640 --> 1:06:15.200
<v Speaker 1>speak to the scope of the ambition. But again, you know,

1:06:15.440 --> 1:06:18.960
<v Speaker 1>here's someone or here's an exchange that literally almost nobody

1:06:19.000 --> 1:06:20.960
<v Speaker 1>had heard of a year ago, and now it's one

1:06:21.000 --> 1:06:23.800
<v Speaker 1>of the most powerful players in the entire world. So

1:06:23.960 --> 1:06:26.760
<v Speaker 1>it's like you're like kind of skeptical, like betting against it,

1:06:26.960 --> 1:06:29.040
<v Speaker 1>and like, would it shocked me if a bunch of

1:06:29.120 --> 1:06:32.080
<v Speaker 1>Americans had like there you know s P y E

1:06:32.200 --> 1:06:33.920
<v Speaker 1>T F and t L T and all that and

1:06:34.360 --> 1:06:37.200
<v Speaker 1>uh F t x U S one day uh based

1:06:37.200 --> 1:06:39.400
<v Speaker 1>on the trajectory not I also thought that was like

1:06:39.440 --> 1:06:42.280
<v Speaker 1>a really good episode just because, like, you know, a

1:06:42.360 --> 1:06:46.360
<v Speaker 1>lot of these like crypto conversations, you know, they could

1:06:46.360 --> 1:06:48.680
<v Speaker 1>be a little bit like it was just nice to

1:06:48.760 --> 1:06:51.160
<v Speaker 1>like sort of like strip away or get past some

1:06:51.280 --> 1:06:53.080
<v Speaker 1>of the whole conversation about what this is all for,

1:06:53.640 --> 1:06:56.400
<v Speaker 1>which is again another time, but also just like how

1:06:56.520 --> 1:06:59.280
<v Speaker 1>it really works, and I think learning a little bit

1:06:59.320 --> 1:07:01.840
<v Speaker 1>about just like this idea of like how crypto like

1:07:01.960 --> 1:07:04.240
<v Speaker 1>collapsed as a lot of this stuff like whether it's

1:07:04.320 --> 1:07:07.200
<v Speaker 1>the clearinghouse and the exchange and the broker, it's all

1:07:07.280 --> 1:07:10.120
<v Speaker 1>sort of flattened into one and thinking about the implications.

1:07:10.240 --> 1:07:13.920
<v Speaker 1>That was very interesting to hear Matt and Sam sort

1:07:13.960 --> 1:07:16.479
<v Speaker 1>of riff on riff on these topics. But yeah, also

1:07:16.600 --> 1:07:19.800
<v Speaker 1>just weird to hear Matt Levine, of all people referred

1:07:19.840 --> 1:07:23.120
<v Speaker 1>to the financial industry as trad five Like I was not.

1:07:23.600 --> 1:07:26.160
<v Speaker 1>I was not ready for that. Um, but that kind

1:07:26.200 --> 1:07:29.280
<v Speaker 1>of shows how far we've come. Um. The one other

1:07:29.320 --> 1:07:31.680
<v Speaker 1>thing I would say is I still think there's an

1:07:31.720 --> 1:07:36.200
<v Speaker 1>open question around tether and we are certainly not done

1:07:36.440 --> 1:07:39.680
<v Speaker 1>discussing it on on the podcast, So we're gonna have to, um,

1:07:40.040 --> 1:07:41.880
<v Speaker 1>We're gonna have to dig into that one a little

1:07:41.920 --> 1:07:45.040
<v Speaker 1>bit more, I think. Yeah, I mean it's like it's interesting.

1:07:45.760 --> 1:07:50.400
<v Speaker 1>Like I was surprised because just having followed um Sam

1:07:51.200 --> 1:07:54.240
<v Speaker 1>and his colleagues and even last time, I got some

1:07:54.480 --> 1:07:57.560
<v Speaker 1>answers to questions, but now I have more questions. Yeah,

1:07:57.880 --> 1:08:00.200
<v Speaker 1>so we'll have to do another We'll collect all our

1:08:00.320 --> 1:08:03.480
<v Speaker 1>questions and uh and get back to the listeners. Um.

1:08:03.560 --> 1:08:05.520
<v Speaker 1>Shall we leave it there? Yeah, let's leave it there.

1:08:05.800 --> 1:08:08.240
<v Speaker 1>All right. This has been another episode of the All

1:08:08.320 --> 1:08:10.960
<v Speaker 1>Thoughts Podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me on

1:08:11.120 --> 1:08:14.240
<v Speaker 1>Twitter at Tracy Alloway and I'm Joe Wisntal. You can

1:08:14.280 --> 1:08:17.559
<v Speaker 1>follow me on Twitter at the Stalwart. Follow our guests

1:08:17.880 --> 1:08:21.920
<v Speaker 1>on Twitter Sam bankman Fried He's at SBF Underscore f

1:08:22.040 --> 1:08:25.360
<v Speaker 1>t X, and follow Matt Levine on Twitter at Matt

1:08:25.520 --> 1:08:29.120
<v Speaker 1>Underscore Levine. And be sure to follow our producer Laura Carlson.

1:08:29.280 --> 1:08:32.880
<v Speaker 1>She's at Laura M. Carlson. Followed the Bloomberg head of podcast,

1:08:32.960 --> 1:08:36.519
<v Speaker 1>Francesco Levi at Francesca Today, and check out all of

1:08:36.600 --> 1:08:40.760
<v Speaker 1>our podcasts at Bloomberg under the handle at podcasts. Thanks

1:08:40.800 --> 1:09:02.160
<v Speaker 1>for listening to