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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane, along

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Speaker 1: with Jonathan Ferrell and Lisa Brownwitz Jailey. We bring you

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Speaker 1: insight from the best and economics, finance, investment, and international relations.

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Speaker 1: Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcast, Suncloud, Bloomberg dot Com,

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Speaker 1: and of course, on the Bloomberg Terminal. Let's get to

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Speaker 1: at our conversation of the day on market economics the

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Speaker 1: state of the American economy. Gun Hatzius joins us. He

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Speaker 1: is with Golden Sex. Yeah, I got eight ways to go,

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Speaker 1: but I want to fold it into a slowdown in

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Speaker 1: the fiscal umph to America. Did you adjust your g

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Speaker 1: d P down because the fiscal party is over, The

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Speaker 1: fiscal punch bowl is being taken away. That's certainly the

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Speaker 1: reason why we think the economy is going to slow

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Speaker 1: quite a bit in two thousand and twenty two. We

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Speaker 1: have it going to just under two percent by the

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Speaker 1: fourth quarter of next year. In the near term, I

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Speaker 1: think there are still some reasons to expect stronger growth.

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Speaker 1: The trend is down, but I don't think it's going

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Speaker 1: to be a straight great line. Will still get some

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Speaker 1: boost from the receding delta. Wave, consumers have a lot

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Speaker 1: of pent up savings, and I think the inventory cycle

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Speaker 1: is also going to boost growth. But these are all

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Speaker 1: relatively short term, right and going forward, you know, further on,

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Speaker 1: I do think growth is going to be significantly saw.

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Speaker 1: Whatever the flavor of inflation here, what does it do

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Speaker 1: to the wage in the inflation adjusted wage I think

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Speaker 1: that really depends on whether you look at the top

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Speaker 1: end of the of the wage distribution or the bottom end.

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Speaker 1: I think at the bottom end, we've seen a sharp

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Speaker 1: acceleration in wage growth we think to about six percent

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Speaker 1: if we just for all the changes in composition, and

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Speaker 1: that's obviously, you know, the strongest we've had in many years.

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Speaker 1: I do think that the expanded unemployment benefits were a

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Speaker 1: big driver of that, and now that those have ended,

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Speaker 1: I think we'll see a deceleration there. But in the

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Speaker 1: middle and upper end of the income distribution will probably

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Speaker 1: see continued gradual wage acceleration as the labor market titans

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Speaker 1: and I still think it is it is tightening, so

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Speaker 1: overall we have wages going sort of roughly sideways in

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Speaker 1: the three and a half to four percent range. That's

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Speaker 1: our current estimate of the underlying pace and then the

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Speaker 1: real wage you know, really is going to depend on

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Speaker 1: what happens to inflation. In the short term, there is

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Speaker 1: no real wage growth. In fact, real wages probably declining

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Speaker 1: slightly because inflation is is higher than that. Longer term,

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Speaker 1: as you go into two thousand and twenty two, I

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Speaker 1: think we'll again have real wage gains. So, yeah, just

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Speaker 1: help we understand next year. Full pus in to the

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Speaker 1: baseline for the year, but I'm more interested in the

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Speaker 1: back half. Two Are you saying one point five to

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Speaker 1: GDP growth by the time we get to the back end?

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Speaker 1: That's right. The four percent is in part being driven

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Speaker 1: by the strength in the later part of two thousand

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Speaker 1: and twenty one that has a statistical carry over into

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Speaker 1: the year. But as you go through the year and

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Speaker 1: especially into the back half, we have it at three

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Speaker 1: percent in Q three and then one seventy five in

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Speaker 1: Q four. So she's definitely a trend towards slowdown, consistent

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Speaker 1: with some of these temporary positives petering out as you

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Speaker 1: go through the year. Yeah, and how do you think

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Speaker 1: the Federal Reserve will respond to them? Will they be

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Speaker 1: looking at the cumulative games that you've pointed out, Will

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Speaker 1: still be decent in the labor market or will they

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Speaker 1: be worried about growth slow and bank below two Well,

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Speaker 1: so a near term of course, you know, tapering is

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Speaker 1: very likely to be announced at the next meeting that's

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Speaker 1: going to take until the middle of two thousand and

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Speaker 1: twenty two, and then I think the question is where

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Speaker 1: is growth whereas the labor market, whereas inflation under our forecast,

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Speaker 1: growth is much more moderate and inflation is on its

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Speaker 1: way back down to something like two percent on core PC.

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Speaker 1: In that environment, I don't think they're going to move

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Speaker 1: directly to rate hikes, and we have the hikes not

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Speaker 1: starting until two thousand and twenty three. But of course

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Speaker 1: it's really going to depend on the on the data

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Speaker 1: and how they compare with the criteria that the Committee

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Speaker 1: has laid out. They've been very clear about that. Well,

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Speaker 1: tapering isn't going to help much in reducing the supply

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Speaker 1: side in facial inflationary pressures that are out there, you

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Speaker 1: could argue there's limited options for the FED to do

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Speaker 1: anything about that. Are the ripple effects though, of that

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Speaker 1: being more persistent than maybe expected, being underestimated, the ripple

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Speaker 1: effects from the supply side shortages, it's be taking longer

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Speaker 1: and that I think that's you know, pretty clear in

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Speaker 1: the inflation numbers in you know, I think a good indicator.

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Speaker 1: Obviously only one industry is used cars, where auction prices

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Speaker 1: again rose in September after several months of the clients.

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Speaker 1: So I do think in the in the next several

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Speaker 1: months will still have a significant inflation issue. We think

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Speaker 1: four pc inflation by the end of the year is

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Speaker 1: at four and a quarter percent, up from three point

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Speaker 1: six percent at the moment. As you go into two

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Speaker 1: thousand and twenty two, though, slower growth in demand and

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Speaker 1: probably also a redirection to some degree of that demand

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Speaker 1: from the good sector. Right now, it's very concentrated in

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Speaker 1: the good sector. It's probably going to normalize somewhat and

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Speaker 1: some of it is going to move into services, you know.

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Speaker 1: I think that is going to result in UH relaxation

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Speaker 1: basically of these of these supply bottlenecks and declining books prices.

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Speaker 1: But we're not yet in terms of supply issues. We

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Speaker 1: also have a real energy crunch out there in the

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Speaker 1: world that is driven crude oil prices to now eighty

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Speaker 1: two dollars a barrel on w T I what is

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Speaker 1: the real economic impact of crude north of AD. I

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Speaker 1: think again it adds to the near charm stackflation narrative.

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Speaker 1: It's bad for growth, but you know, at the same

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Speaker 1: time boots inflation mainly headline there. There's not a major

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Speaker 1: impact on the core numbers. They are the high numbers.

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Speaker 1: They are really driven by other factors. But it's all

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Speaker 1: pointing in the in the same direction in terms of

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Speaker 1: way on growth and making making inflation higher. Yeah, long

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Speaker 1: ago and far away, a younger hotsis defined the housing

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Speaker 1: market in America as we saw housing prices collapse. Let's

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Speaker 1: go to your Brookings effort here the balance sheet effects

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Speaker 1: of the home price downturn. We need a rewrite sheet

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Speaker 1: effects of the home price upturn. What do you make

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Speaker 1: of this boom, Yahn? What does it mean for our

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Speaker 1: viewers and listeners? Well, I think it is one of

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Speaker 1: the items on the strong side of the ledger and

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Speaker 1: one reason I think why we are getting a good

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Speaker 1: amount of balance sheet support that is upsetting to some

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Speaker 1: degree the negative fiscal impulse. But I think ultimately the

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Speaker 1: negative fiscal impulse is probably going to be larger, in

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Speaker 1: part because this housing boom underlike the pre two thousand

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Speaker 1: and seven or two thousand and eight housing boom doesn't

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Speaker 1: feature the same amount of mortgage equity withdrawal, you know,

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Speaker 1: wholem equity, borrowing, cash out refis, etcetera. That was really

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Speaker 1: a particular sort of way to turbo charge the housing

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Speaker 1: wealth effect back then. We're not seeing that to the

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Speaker 1: integrat degree now, so I also think the consumption effect

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Speaker 1: isn't going to be as large. Yeah, just quickly, a

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Speaker 1: final question, what do you make of this stag inflation

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Speaker 1: conversation that's taking place right now? What are you when

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Speaker 1: your team tan of clients about it? But I think

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Speaker 1: in the near German's real if you're just defined stagflation

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Speaker 1: as you know, deceleration and growth from the extremely rapid

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Speaker 1: pace that we had a couple of quarters a goal

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Speaker 1: and much higher inflation than we've had in several decades.

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Speaker 1: I mean, it's just a description of the fact. The

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Speaker 1: question is, I think what happens as you go into

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Speaker 1: two thousand twenty two, and I think that's going to

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Speaker 1: be a more traditional, you know, sort of cyclical slowdown

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Speaker 1: narrative also with the clients and inflation. But we're not

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Speaker 1: there yet, and we're probably not going to be there

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Speaker 1: for at least a few months longer. You just quickly then,

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Speaker 1: just looking at the FED forecast real GDP next year,

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Speaker 1: there are at three point eight year of four This

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Speaker 1: is for twenty two core pc. There are two point three.

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Speaker 1: Just you and just quickly confirmed. What are you at

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Speaker 1: for two for on core pc? So on a for

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Speaker 1: corpc by the end of the year, we're a so

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Speaker 1: a little bit below the FEDS forecast for GDP growth.

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Speaker 1: We're at three point three percent if you look at

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Speaker 1: it on the fourth quarter to the fourth quarter basis.

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Speaker 1: It's the way the FED looks at it. Yeah, and

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Speaker 1: thank you, sir. I appreciate that clarification got my sex

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Speaker 1: chief economist on the path forward. Ye, thank you very much.

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Speaker 1: So picture the scene you have won the Nobel Prize

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Speaker 1: in Economics, but you don't know you've won the Nobel

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Speaker 1: Prize in economics, and Tom the phone rings you live

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Speaker 1: in America on the West coast maybe, and your phonus room.

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Speaker 1: Do you pick up the phone? Well, I don't know

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Speaker 1: if you pick up the phone, but that is the great,

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Speaker 1: great tradition and maybe you miss it a few times.

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Speaker 1: Is Guido im Men's did this morning of the three

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Speaker 1: winners here. This is a gentleman who did the hard

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Speaker 1: work the math out of Brown University in the House

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Speaker 1: of Tony Land Gast Grido Evans has been definitive in econometrics.

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Speaker 1: Think Claude Granger and Robert Angel of San Diego a

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Speaker 1: number of years ago. Grado, this is an award for

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Speaker 1: labor and the choices of society makes in trying to

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Speaker 1: figure out jobs and wages. Discreat choice is the hallmark

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Speaker 1: of your work. What are the modern choices we're making

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Speaker 1: in labor in two thousand twenty one? Well, thanks thanks

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Speaker 1: for having me say. I mean, first all, it's just

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Speaker 1: been great shining this with with josh Anglis and David

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Speaker 1: Carr because they've they've been such role models for me

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Speaker 1: that they've been so fun to to work with and

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Speaker 1: have his colleagues, and in addition kind of Alan Couger

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Speaker 1: who's also worked in this this area, and all three

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Speaker 1: of them kind of have been working on these really

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Speaker 1: important subscentive questions and sacked and having been their colleagues,

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Speaker 1: then that motivated me to look at a lot of

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Speaker 1: the methodological issues related to their questions. To make their

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Speaker 1: arms is more convincing and more credible and hopefully more

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Speaker 1: useful for policymakers. I look, Guido at the present work

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Speaker 1: here in the hallmark of this is to take David

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Speaker 1: Carter and Ellen Krueger over to what Angerston in Ben's

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Speaker 1: did an econometrics and math, over to the modern technology

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Speaker 1: of Amazon, target and the rest getting sixteen seventeen eighteen

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Speaker 1: dollars an hour because they can't find labor. From where

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Speaker 1: you sit, what does the marginal wage due to all

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Speaker 1: of America with Amazon going out looking for the marginal employee.

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Speaker 1: But at the moment, I think it's all very much

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Speaker 1: influx after the pandemics, of course, has had great effects

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Speaker 1: on on inequality and it's it's had such an equal

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Speaker 1: impact on different parts of the of the labor market,

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Speaker 1: and so I think Ellen and David's work is still

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Speaker 1: extremely relevant there and I think the current administration has

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Speaker 1: probably taken up very seriously. Yeah, Guido, obviously your work

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Speaker 1: focused on natural experiments in the actual study of empirical data.

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Speaker 1: As we talk about monetary policy and a federal reserve

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Speaker 1: that wants to operate on actual, realized data versus expectations,

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Speaker 1: is that something that can only really be done with

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Speaker 1: hindsight bias. No, I think a lot of these methods

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Speaker 1: are very relevant for for informing future policies, and a

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Speaker 1: lot of the datual experiment literature has also made roads

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Speaker 1: into macroeconomics and is incredibly interesting work going on there

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Speaker 1: that early on the Christian David Roman is very interesting

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Speaker 1: work there nowadays, uh, I mean Necamora and Don Science

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Speaker 1: and doing very interesting work trying to also tease out

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Speaker 1: correlation and causality in macroeconomic settings, where these classes are

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Speaker 1: even more challenging than in the settings with my code

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Speaker 1: data that David, Josh and I have typically looked at

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Speaker 1: Professor Emmons, what is so important here? And I think

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Speaker 1: we'll do just one final questionnaire as you go to

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Speaker 1: your massive media day and celebration of this award, And

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Speaker 1: the final question is we have a certitude about data.

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Speaker 1: It's in our economics, it's in our academics, it's in

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Speaker 1: Wall Street, it's in everything to do with the financial media.

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Speaker 1: You grew up in what I'm gonna call the Baysie

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Speaker 1: in the house, which is real doubt over ninety and certitude.

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Speaker 1: Are we too confident about our data that we're trying

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Speaker 1: to guess the future on I think I think that

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Speaker 1: that's a super interesting question, and that's that's something that

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Speaker 1: that's occupy a lot of my of my thinking. We're

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Speaker 1: trying to I think traditionally we've we've certainly aired on

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Speaker 1: the side of putting too much faith in the in

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Speaker 1: the models, and so a lot of the methods have

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Speaker 1: been developing have been trying to get away from that

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Speaker 1: and trying to make these methods more robust, but as

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Speaker 1: as ongoing challenges and in doing so, professor, before you run,

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Speaker 1: did you miss the phone call? What time did they call?

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Speaker 1: I miss I missed the first phone call. I got

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Speaker 1: the second one. Uh so, I was been a long

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Speaker 1: day before for us. I was. I was sleeping well

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Speaker 1: and uh I wasn't expecting this as it's often the way, sir,

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Speaker 1: as it's often the white They missed the phone call.

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Speaker 1: Queen Emmant s, thank you so and congratulations so much.

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Speaker 1: E tunny walk about Prize for Economics winner and Stanford

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Speaker 1: University Economics professor, that's home. They always missed the code.

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Speaker 1: That's what I find always funny about this. They always

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Speaker 1: missed the code. Right now and we are well timed

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Speaker 1: to speak to one of our great labor economy, and

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Speaker 1: she is inquisitive, to say the least out of the

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Speaker 1: Michigan Shop Claudius sam Joe's joins us always controversial, always opinionated,

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Speaker 1: and knowing that it is a day of celebration in

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Speaker 1: her world, which is labor economics, Claudia, and we want

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Speaker 1: to stay in theme. But if I look at Guido

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Speaker 1: in Ben's, if I look at Joshua Angerston, particularly if

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Speaker 1: I look at David Card and Alan Krueger, um, I

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Speaker 1: just have to say, this is a day of the

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Speaker 1: minimum wage. Fold their work into the observation. Amazon has

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Speaker 1: to give out eighteen dollars an hour to find someone today.

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Speaker 1: All right, So for these Nobel Prize winners today, you know, congratulations,

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Speaker 1: uh and I agree. There you can go back to

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Speaker 1: the really path breaking work that David Card and Alan

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Speaker 1: Krueger did in the early nine nineties, and it was

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Speaker 1: very careful, empirical work. Go out in the world and

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Speaker 1: see what is happening in states that raise minimum wage

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Speaker 1: and states that don't. Now, a lot of happened in

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Speaker 1: terms of research that since then, but they at least

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Speaker 1: raise the question that you raise wages and you don't

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Speaker 1: lose out on business. It's not bad for the company.

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Speaker 1: Normally in economics we'd say this, this is gonna be

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Speaker 1: a problem for employers, it's gonna be a problem for businesses.

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Speaker 1: And they found in one case, and like I said,

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Speaker 1: there's a lot of literature, there's a lot of debate

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Speaker 1: after that about the effects of minimum wage, but it

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Speaker 1: really opened up a conversation. Let's get past our models

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Speaker 1: and let's go see what's happening to all of this,

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Speaker 1: and the the incredibly acute mathematic tics of Angers and

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Speaker 1: Emmons as well also working. I should point out with

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Speaker 1: Alan Krueger Claudia some what this comes down to is

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Speaker 1: the reality right now. And I have a question on

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Speaker 1: local economics, think David blanche Flower at Dartmouth is Amazon

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Speaker 1: target cost go? Are they the marginal price determinant of

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Speaker 1: the wage in local economies? Well, this is a trend

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Speaker 1: we have seen for decades. So this goes way beyond

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Speaker 1: COVID in that you have local labor markets where there

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Speaker 1: is a dominant employer. Amazon's a big company in terms

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Speaker 1: of customers buying things. Amazon can be a big employer

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Speaker 1: if you are in an area that has one of

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Speaker 1: the warehouses. I grew up in Indiana, close to an

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Speaker 1: inter state. When I go home, there's all kinds of

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Speaker 1: warehouses in place now or being built. They tend to

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Speaker 1: pay above the local wage, but then they have a

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Speaker 1: lot of bargaining power over the workers, and and that

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Speaker 1: can lead to real problems, not just in terms of wages,

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Speaker 1: but working conditions. Right Like, we know from a lot

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Speaker 1: of people that have worked in these plans or these warehouses,

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Speaker 1: it's not an easy job. And John, you wonder if

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Speaker 1: this is the new form of unionization almost the dominance

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Speaker 1: of these companies setting the marginal wage. Let's build on

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Speaker 1: some of this time, the contribution of Card and Kruger

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Speaker 1: to the real world, the real economy for good, Claudia,

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Speaker 1: a quote of yours. I want economic policy to be good,

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Speaker 1: like economists to do good in the world. Larry, you're

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Speaker 1: referring to Larry Summers. Here is something of it. I

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Speaker 1: don't now. I see him as a roadblock to achieving

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Speaker 1: that girl that was in an interview with Political magazine.

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Speaker 1: Why do you think that, Claudia, Right, Well, this is

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Speaker 1: this really is not about Larry. It's it's about the

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Speaker 1: change that needs to happen. In economics. I think if

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Speaker 1: of a generation of economists, particular in macroeconomics, there is

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Speaker 1: a I have a mental model. I have a way

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Speaker 1: the world should work, and I'm going to keep going

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Speaker 1: back to it. Larry did an interview with Noah Smith,

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Speaker 1: and he was really clear, I don't have a model.

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Speaker 1: He has an intuition and that comes from years of

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Speaker 1: experience watching the economy. But the real contribution of the

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Speaker 1: Nobel Prize winners today is to say, let's step back,

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Speaker 1: let's go get the data, let's look at the world,

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Speaker 1: and not do introspection. It is too hard and can

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Speaker 1: really lead to a stray if you're doing that from

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Speaker 1: the Ivory Towers in Cambridge, Massachusetts. So that's really and

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Speaker 1: Larry just happens to be a flag bearer of the

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Speaker 1: old guard. And I just particularly in this crisis, particularly

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Speaker 1: in the way that different groups of people, marginalized workers,

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Speaker 1: the ones who end up working at Amazon, they need

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Speaker 1: economists to be out in the world looking at the

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Speaker 1: data and not sitting back and using past experience, using

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Speaker 1: intuition to make decisions. So that that's what that concerned

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Speaker 1: that I'm raising is about what your advice. Clodia then

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Speaker 1: to a students of economics right now who are just

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Speaker 1: starting gout and be much bigger question I think for

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Speaker 1: policy Mike, is that the Federals who have been conditioned

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Speaker 1: by everything you just said. Mm hmm. Yeah. So economics

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Speaker 1: is all around us, right, It's not just listening to

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Speaker 1: what the Fed is gonna do, what the markets are doing.

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Speaker 1: A really big debate that's happening right now that is

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Speaker 1: absolutely using the tools of the prize winners today are

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Speaker 1: the debates about what is causing the labor shortage. How

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Speaker 1: important was unemployment insurance in that holding back of workers.

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Speaker 1: There's a lot of debate on Friday about not seeing

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Speaker 1: big numbers now that it are in early September, those

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Speaker 1: benefits expired and they're absolutely using those methods because we

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Speaker 1: saw different states roll off their benefits at different points

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Speaker 1: this summer. So these tools, they've been refined since they've

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Speaker 1: been developed. But like, but economists are out there trying

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Speaker 1: to answer the questions, the questions about people about labor markets.

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Speaker 1: The policymakers need to know so that they can make

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Speaker 1: big decisions. Well, let's talk about the questions in the

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Speaker 1: labor market. Participation has remained stubbornly low. We saw more

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Speaker 1: evidence of that on Friday. Is that again transitory as

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Speaker 1: we talk about so many of the shortages out there

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Speaker 1: are or is that something structural? Well I said throughout

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Speaker 1: this COVID is the enemy of everything that is happening

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Speaker 1: in our world, and it is absolutely the case in

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Speaker 1: labor markets. Now it's not the only factor, I think

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Speaker 1: in the labor markets, and we actually see this a

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Speaker 1: lot of places. What whatever problems we were living with

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Speaker 1: before COVID, those became so much worse. Right, if you

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Speaker 1: think about before COVID, there were a lot of parents

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Speaker 1: that struggled to get childcare. It was often extremely unaffordable

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Speaker 1: in areas of the country like where I live outside

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Speaker 1: of Washington, d C. And then we have COVID and

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Speaker 1: it becomes harder, it's less reliable, and our parents are

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Speaker 1: concerned about it not being safe, and so that decision

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Speaker 1: that was always hard. Do you have like the one

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Speaker 1: wage earner off of the mother who would make less wages,

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Speaker 1: do you have her stay at home or do she

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Speaker 1: go back to work? Right like, that got so much worse,

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Speaker 1: and we saw a lot of parents drop out of

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Speaker 1: the labor force early on, and one of the disappointments

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Speaker 1: on Friday was it's fall. Schools are reopening. It's a

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Speaker 1: little rocky because people kids get sent home if a

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Speaker 1: COVID exposure. Women didn't come back last month. September were

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Speaker 1: supposed to be one of the big ones. So that's

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Speaker 1: just one example, Claudia, is what you're saying helping make

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Speaker 1: the case for some of the social policies on the

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Speaker 1: table in terms of longer term economic spending in Congress.

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Speaker 1: Childclaire is included in that right. So, I think we're

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Speaker 1: at the point now where we we have seen this

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Speaker 1: in so many places, the structural problems the labor market

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Speaker 1: in general, low wage workers had a lot of problems

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Speaker 1: in terms of what they were able to bargain for before,

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Speaker 1: so let's fix those. This crisis has amplified and made

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Speaker 1: it so obvious that the inequalities, the inequities and our

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Speaker 1: economy are they're holding us all back. Now. Congress has

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Speaker 1: not done big future looking long term investments in the

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Speaker 1: country for a long time, and frankly, it is absolutely

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Speaker 1: frustrating to see the whole debate about how many trillion

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Speaker 1: dollars we have a lot to do in this country

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Speaker 1: and sadly, I think Congress doesn't have a lot of

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Speaker 1: crap practice recently and getting it done. Claudia, we've gotta

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Speaker 1: leave it that we appreciate your time this morning. We're

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Speaker 1: ready to thank you very much for being with this,

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Speaker 1: Clodia Sanda of the Family Institute, and a whole wealth

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Speaker 1: of experience, Tom Back of the Federal Serve as well

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Speaker 1: on the COVID On the vaccine, I don't know where

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Speaker 1: I said things are getting better, but where I sait

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Speaker 1: maybe isn't the rest of America or the rest of

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Speaker 1: the world. It is a world of vaccine protest, whether

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Speaker 1: in Rome this weekend and thousands of Melbourne, Australia again

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Speaker 1: and others around the world, and the oddity in America

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Speaker 1: of possible vaccine protests by businesses and by their employees.

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Speaker 1: Joshua Scharstein joins them. JOHNS. Hopkins, Bloomberg School of Public Health. Joshua,

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Speaker 1: are you surprised by vaccine protest? I'm not not surprised,

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Speaker 1: given just how polarized the whole pandemic has been over

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Speaker 1: the last year and a half. Um but I think

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Speaker 1: we have to realize that when there are a lot

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Speaker 1: of cases people see the problem right in front of them,

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Speaker 1: and they're more likely to go get vaccinated when they're

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Speaker 1: not a lot of cases people wonder, well, you know,

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Speaker 1: do I need to get vaccinated? And then there's so

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Speaker 1: much misinformation out there that keeps him from getting vaccinated.

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Speaker 1: So as we look to the future and the good

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Speaker 1: news that it looks like on the you know, the

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Speaker 1: right side of the delta waves coming down, things look

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Speaker 1: a little bit um more optimistic going into the fall

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Speaker 1: and winter. Um. But also it may be that people

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Speaker 1: will feel less likely to be vaccinated because of that.

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Speaker 1: So I think we're going to be seeing this and

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Speaker 1: it might be industry by industry, particularly for industries where

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Speaker 1: workers might leave the general council or the chief medical

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Speaker 1: officer of a given fortune five hundred company dials Sharfstein

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Speaker 1: and says what should we do? How should business respond

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Speaker 1: to vaccine protest? Yeah, I've been on the phone with

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Speaker 1: some businesses like that, some organizations, and it's really important

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Speaker 1: to focus on countering misinformation. There is so much misinformation.

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Speaker 1: I've done some you know, big kind of town halls

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Speaker 1: with employees and the questions come from truly out of

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Speaker 1: left field, um, with sometimes just almost snow basis in

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Speaker 1: reality whatsoever. And you know, I think, um, one of

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Speaker 1: the insights I've learned from some experts and misinformation is

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Speaker 1: that people like me, we tend to think we explain

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Speaker 1: it once. People should understand meanwhile, the misinformation is coming

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Speaker 1: to people morning, noon, and night. So it's really important

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Speaker 1: for employers to constantly be communicating different ways, different messengers,

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Speaker 1: you know, UM, people that their employees can relate to

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Speaker 1: and be relentless because the misinformation is relentless. Well, this

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00:26:28,680 --> 00:26:31,760
Speaker 1: is no longer just about adults. Dr Sharfsty And obviously

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Speaker 1: we're awaiting an FDA decision on the vaccine for children

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00:26:34,720 --> 00:26:37,280
Speaker 1: that could come later this month. CBS, and you have

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00:26:37,359 --> 00:26:39,440
Speaker 1: put out a poll over the weekend that even among

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00:26:39,560 --> 00:26:43,119
Speaker 1: vaccinated parents, only sixty one percent of them are willing

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00:26:43,160 --> 00:26:46,000
Speaker 1: to have their children get a shot. Do you understand

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00:26:46,080 --> 00:26:50,960
Speaker 1: that hesitation. I think that it is a little premature

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00:26:51,040 --> 00:26:53,159
Speaker 1: to be making too much of those polls because we

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00:26:53,240 --> 00:26:55,960
Speaker 1: really haven't had a full airing of the data, full

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Speaker 1: discussion with the advisory committee. You know, all we really

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Speaker 1: have is that acclaimed by the company at this point.

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Speaker 1: So I think parents are are right to be saying Okay,

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00:27:04,600 --> 00:27:07,040
Speaker 1: let's take it one step at a time now, Just

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00:27:07,119 --> 00:27:09,159
Speaker 1: like with the adult vaccine, I think there'll be some

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00:27:09,240 --> 00:27:12,320
Speaker 1: people who jump out and want to vaccinate their kids early,

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00:27:12,440 --> 00:27:14,360
Speaker 1: and others maybe a little bit more in the wait

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00:27:14,400 --> 00:27:18,040
Speaker 1: and see camp. It's going to be really important for

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Speaker 1: the FDA and CDC not just to make a decision

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00:27:21,840 --> 00:27:23,960
Speaker 1: based on the evidence that they have now, but to

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Speaker 1: explain how they're going to get more evidence, how they're

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00:27:27,480 --> 00:27:29,520
Speaker 1: going to be able to share that evidence so that

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00:27:29,600 --> 00:27:33,480
Speaker 1: people can see what's happening and ideally build confidence with

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00:27:33,520 --> 00:27:37,120
Speaker 1: more and more people over time. Is her immunity still

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00:27:37,200 --> 00:27:41,359
Speaker 1: an achievable goal, Well, you know, to the extent that

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00:27:41,359 --> 00:27:43,520
Speaker 1: her immunity means there's there's not going to be a

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00:27:43,520 --> 00:27:47,120
Speaker 1: lot of COVID around, I think we're going to hopefully

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00:27:47,119 --> 00:27:50,080
Speaker 1: get there unless there's a big mutation in the virus.

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00:27:50,520 --> 00:27:53,639
Speaker 1: But her immunity doesn't mean no virus, and it doesn't

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00:27:53,640 --> 00:27:55,880
Speaker 1: mean no risk, and it doesn't mean there couldn't be

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00:27:56,920 --> 00:28:00,000
Speaker 1: outbreaks here and there, particularly where their pockets of people

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00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:03,480
Speaker 1: who are unvaccinated. Um So I think, you know, the

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00:28:03,520 --> 00:28:06,879
Speaker 1: more likely scenario is that we will be living with

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Speaker 1: the virus and hopefully we'll be living with a low

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Speaker 1: level of the virus rather than a medium level of

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00:28:11,480 --> 00:28:13,080
Speaker 1: the virus. And tell me if you notice that the

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00:28:13,119 --> 00:28:16,160
Speaker 1: messaging has changed on TV. The commercials are less about

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00:28:16,200 --> 00:28:18,640
Speaker 1: get a vaccine and much more about mental health. Did

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00:28:18,640 --> 00:28:20,639
Speaker 1: you notice that in the last week or so. I

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Speaker 1: can't think of a single vaccine commercial that I've seen

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00:28:24,320 --> 00:28:27,000
Speaker 1: from New York State over the past week or so

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00:28:27,600 --> 00:28:30,640
Speaker 1: on TV. I think there are subtle shifts here. Part

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00:28:30,680 --> 00:28:33,320
Speaker 1: of it is the impatience of people, and part of

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00:28:33,359 --> 00:28:36,560
Speaker 1: it is legitimate protest. I mean, what's fascinating to me

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00:28:36,680 --> 00:28:39,440
Speaker 1: is how will this a man when finally we'd get

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00:28:39,480 --> 00:28:42,640
Speaker 1: five year olds to eleven year olds? Uh? You know,

478
00:28:42,720 --> 00:28:44,480
Speaker 1: you know, John, I have to admit a seven year

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00:28:44,520 --> 00:28:47,160
Speaker 1: old descendant on the house this weekend. It was an

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00:28:47,200 --> 00:28:49,920
Speaker 1: odd and beautiful thing. We tried to trade the two

481
00:28:49,960 --> 00:28:51,840
Speaker 1: dogs for the seven year old, but that didn't work.

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00:28:51,960 --> 00:28:54,080
Speaker 1: I didn't imagine that tim work. And you know, to

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00:28:54,120 --> 00:28:56,760
Speaker 1: be honest, John is an idiot. I was confronted with

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00:28:56,800 --> 00:28:59,920
Speaker 1: what others like Mr Bramo, it's face each and every day.

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00:29:00,120 --> 00:29:04,160
Speaker 1: Let me unvaccinated doctor, if you notice them, I'm noticing

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00:29:04,280 --> 00:29:06,680
Speaker 1: something or nothing at all. I see a lot more

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00:29:06,720 --> 00:29:11,719
Speaker 1: now about mental health than I do about get a vaccine. Um,

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00:29:11,760 --> 00:29:14,680
Speaker 1: I have not particularly noticed that, but I'm not maybe

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Speaker 1: watching TV in New York. I would say, though mental

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00:29:17,440 --> 00:29:21,040
Speaker 1: health is extremely important, and you know, this pandemic has

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Speaker 1: affected people in so many different ways and so difficult

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00:29:24,480 --> 00:29:26,560
Speaker 1: in so many different ways. It's really important to pay

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00:29:26,600 --> 00:29:29,600
Speaker 1: attention to that too. But you know, a vaccine is

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Speaker 1: a path to fewer cases, which hopefully will you know,

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Speaker 1: help everyone's mental health. Doctor. Thank you, doctor Joshua Schafstein.

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Speaker 1: There of Johns Hopkins to Bloomberg School a public health

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Speaker 1: by staying. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Thanks for listening.

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Speaker 1: Join us live weekdays from seven to ten am Eastern.

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00:29:48,440 --> 00:29:52,520
Speaker 1: I'm Bloomberg Radio and I'm Bloomberg Television each day from

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00:29:52,560 --> 00:29:57,800
Speaker 1: six to nine am for insight from the best in economics, finance, investment,

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00:29:57,960 --> 00:30:03,000
Speaker 1: and international relations. And subscribe to the Surveillance podcast on

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00:30:03,080 --> 00:30:06,880
Speaker 1: Apple podcast, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot com, and of course on

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Speaker 1: the terminal. I'm Tom keene In. This is Bloomberg