1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:07,000 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:10,240 --> 00:00:13,280 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Daybreak here At podcast, available every 3 00:00:13,320 --> 00:00:16,480 Speaker 2: morning on Apple, Spotify or wherever you listen. It's Friday, 4 00:00:16,520 --> 00:00:19,520 Speaker 2: the thirteenth of June here in London. I'm Caroline Hepka 5 00:00:19,680 --> 00:00:20,720 Speaker 2: and I'm Stephen Carroll. 6 00:00:20,760 --> 00:00:24,800 Speaker 3: Coming up today, Israel attacks around nuclear and ballistic missile 7 00:00:24,880 --> 00:00:27,880 Speaker 3: programs while killing key figures in the regime in a 8 00:00:27,920 --> 00:00:29,720 Speaker 3: major escalation of hostilities. 9 00:00:29,880 --> 00:00:33,360 Speaker 2: Tehran vows to deliver a harsh blow against Israel and 10 00:00:33,479 --> 00:00:36,919 Speaker 2: the US, as President Trump says America was aware of 11 00:00:36,960 --> 00:00:39,320 Speaker 2: the strikes but not involved. 12 00:00:39,000 --> 00:00:41,600 Speaker 3: And crude oil prices jump by double digits and the 13 00:00:41,640 --> 00:00:44,839 Speaker 3: biggest gains in more than three years. Stocks drop and 14 00:00:45,080 --> 00:00:48,720 Speaker 3: gold rises as investors rush to safe haven assets. 15 00:00:48,880 --> 00:00:51,040 Speaker 2: Let's start with a roundup of our top stories. 16 00:00:51,400 --> 00:00:54,600 Speaker 3: Israel has launched waves of air strikes against Around's nuclear 17 00:00:54,640 --> 00:00:58,120 Speaker 3: program and ballistic missile sites. The attacks are a significant 18 00:00:58,240 --> 00:01:01,520 Speaker 3: escalation in the conflict between the two countries, with consequences 19 00:01:01,520 --> 00:01:05,160 Speaker 3: for the wider Middle least. The operation also targeted Iran's 20 00:01:05,200 --> 00:01:08,559 Speaker 3: nuclear scientists and generals, killing a number of high ranking 21 00:01:08,600 --> 00:01:12,240 Speaker 3: military officials in the country. Israel's Prime Minister Benjaminattania, who 22 00:01:12,280 --> 00:01:15,000 Speaker 3: says the strikes will continue for as many days as 23 00:01:15,000 --> 00:01:16,640 Speaker 3: it takes to remove this threat. 24 00:01:17,800 --> 00:01:21,280 Speaker 4: Israel will never allow those who call for our annihilation 25 00:01:21,880 --> 00:01:25,480 Speaker 4: to develop the means to achieve that goal. Tonight, Israel 26 00:01:25,560 --> 00:01:29,280 Speaker 4: backs those words with action. We struck at the heart 27 00:01:29,319 --> 00:01:32,760 Speaker 4: of Iran's nuclear enrichment program. We struck at the heart 28 00:01:32,760 --> 00:01:38,120 Speaker 4: of Iran's nuclear weaponization program. We targeted Iran's main enrichment 29 00:01:38,120 --> 00:01:42,920 Speaker 4: facility in Natans. We targeted Iran's leading nuclear scientists working 30 00:01:42,959 --> 00:01:45,479 Speaker 4: on the Iranian bomb. We also struck at the heart 31 00:01:45,520 --> 00:01:48,600 Speaker 4: of Iran's ballistic missile program. 32 00:01:49,080 --> 00:01:51,760 Speaker 3: Israel's Natannia, who speaking there is the country's defense minister. 33 00:01:51,880 --> 00:01:55,200 Speaker 3: Israel Katz, says he's declaring a state of emergency after 34 00:01:55,240 --> 00:01:58,440 Speaker 3: what he described as a pre emptive strike against Iran. 35 00:01:58,840 --> 00:02:02,040 Speaker 3: The israelimentitary says Iran has launched over one hundred drones 36 00:02:02,080 --> 00:02:05,600 Speaker 3: towards Israel and that their air defense systems are responding. 37 00:02:06,480 --> 00:02:10,480 Speaker 2: Explosions were heard across Tehran and in the city of Natan's, 38 00:02:10,680 --> 00:02:13,720 Speaker 2: home to one of its nuclear sites, according to videos 39 00:02:13,760 --> 00:02:17,680 Speaker 2: and local media. Iranian State Television reported that the head 40 00:02:17,720 --> 00:02:23,680 Speaker 2: of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps hassaying Slami was killed, 41 00:02:23,800 --> 00:02:26,119 Speaker 2: as well as the chief of staff of the country's 42 00:02:26,240 --> 00:02:29,600 Speaker 2: Armed Forces. Iran TV is also reporting that fifty people 43 00:02:29,639 --> 00:02:33,200 Speaker 2: have been injured in the strikes. In a televised address, 44 00:02:33,360 --> 00:02:36,800 Speaker 2: Iran's Armed Forces spokesperson said that Israel and the United 45 00:02:36,840 --> 00:02:41,760 Speaker 2: States will receive a quote harsh blow. In response, US 46 00:02:41,800 --> 00:02:44,239 Speaker 2: Sector of State Marco Rubio says that the United States 47 00:02:44,360 --> 00:02:47,880 Speaker 2: was not involved and warned that Iran should not target 48 00:02:48,040 --> 00:02:52,840 Speaker 2: US interests or personnel. Tehran has repeatedly insisted that its 49 00:02:52,919 --> 00:02:56,800 Speaker 2: atomic activities are for peaceful civilian purposes only, but it 50 00:02:56,880 --> 00:03:02,400 Speaker 2: has significantly expanded Uranian enriched since twenty nineteen and in 51 00:03:02,480 --> 00:03:06,760 Speaker 2: response to President trans withdrawal a year before form a 52 00:03:06,840 --> 00:03:13,200 Speaker 2: twenty fifteen nuclear deal signed under Barack Obama's administration. Professor 53 00:03:13,360 --> 00:03:18,120 Speaker 2: Matthew Bonn, American nuclear and energy policy analyst at Harvard, 54 00:03:18,120 --> 00:03:21,520 Speaker 2: believes that the attack will make the potential for retaliation 55 00:03:22,280 --> 00:03:23,560 Speaker 2: more of a reality. 56 00:03:24,480 --> 00:03:27,960 Speaker 5: I think this will make a run even more determined 57 00:03:28,000 --> 00:03:32,359 Speaker 5: that it needs to move directly toward producing nuclear weapons. 58 00:03:32,440 --> 00:03:35,560 Speaker 5: My guess is that it will try to rebuild its 59 00:03:35,600 --> 00:03:38,480 Speaker 5: program at secret locations. 60 00:03:38,760 --> 00:03:43,720 Speaker 2: So that was Professor Matthew Bond, speaking there as Nicole Gradjewski, 61 00:03:43,960 --> 00:03:47,559 Speaker 2: a fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie 62 00:03:47,680 --> 00:03:51,560 Speaker 2: Endowment for International Peace who specializes in the region, has 63 00:03:51,600 --> 00:03:54,840 Speaker 2: posted this on social media. If you were to ask 64 00:03:54,960 --> 00:03:58,080 Speaker 2: the worst case scenario, this would be close to it. 65 00:03:58,480 --> 00:04:01,360 Speaker 3: Natani how his government ordered this strikes in apparent defiance 66 00:04:01,400 --> 00:04:04,440 Speaker 3: of the US president. Fox News says Donald Trump was 67 00:04:04,480 --> 00:04:07,720 Speaker 3: made aware of the strikes before Israel launched them, citing 68 00:04:07,720 --> 00:04:10,000 Speaker 3: a phone interview between the President and one of their 69 00:04:10,000 --> 00:04:13,560 Speaker 3: anchors that comes after Donald Trump had said earlier yesterday 70 00:04:13,600 --> 00:04:16,760 Speaker 3: he didn't want Israel to attack, adding that his administration 71 00:04:16,880 --> 00:04:20,440 Speaker 3: remained a committed to a diplomatic resolution to the Iran 72 00:04:20,640 --> 00:04:24,880 Speaker 3: nuclear issue. Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander in Europe Wesley 73 00:04:24,880 --> 00:04:27,400 Speaker 3: Clark says Israel has forced America's hand. 74 00:04:28,040 --> 00:04:30,520 Speaker 6: President Trump does not want a warr he said that, 75 00:04:30,800 --> 00:04:33,479 Speaker 6: but also he does not want an Iran to have 76 00:04:33,600 --> 00:04:39,000 Speaker 6: nuclear weapons. So I think briand minister who has taken 77 00:04:39,040 --> 00:04:42,000 Speaker 6: the decision away from President Trump at this point. 78 00:04:42,760 --> 00:04:46,359 Speaker 3: It's retired General Wesley Clark, speaking to Bloomberg earlier. The 79 00:04:46,400 --> 00:04:49,320 Speaker 3: strikes by Israel and Iran come after the US had 80 00:04:49,440 --> 00:04:52,600 Speaker 3: earlier ordered some staff to leave its embassy in Baghdad 81 00:04:52,680 --> 00:04:55,680 Speaker 3: and authorized families of military service members to move out 82 00:04:55,680 --> 00:04:58,159 Speaker 3: of the Middle East. Officials at the time had said 83 00:04:58,160 --> 00:05:01,000 Speaker 3: the decision was due to heightened security risks after a 84 00:05:01,040 --> 00:05:04,640 Speaker 3: round threatened to strike American basis if it were attacked 85 00:05:04,680 --> 00:05:06,320 Speaker 3: over its nuclear program. 86 00:05:06,680 --> 00:05:09,960 Speaker 2: Now to the market reaction, oil prices have surged by 87 00:05:09,960 --> 00:05:12,479 Speaker 2: as much as thirteen percent as the news of the 88 00:05:12,520 --> 00:05:16,239 Speaker 2: strikes raises fears of a wider war in the Middle East. 89 00:05:16,800 --> 00:05:19,080 Speaker 2: Brent topped seventy eight dollars a bowl, in the biggest 90 00:05:19,080 --> 00:05:22,560 Speaker 2: inter day gain since March twenty twenty two. Vander Insite's 91 00:05:22,600 --> 00:05:26,920 Speaker 2: founder of Vendana Harry says that markets are expecting retaliation. 92 00:05:27,600 --> 00:05:30,920 Speaker 7: The big question for oil would be how and when 93 00:05:31,160 --> 00:05:35,039 Speaker 7: Iran retaliates. On the second part, I would imagine they 94 00:05:35,080 --> 00:05:37,480 Speaker 7: would want to keep an element of surprise, so probably 95 00:05:37,520 --> 00:05:39,960 Speaker 7: not in the next few hours or even days. So 96 00:05:40,000 --> 00:05:43,039 Speaker 7: this would drag on potentially, which means the risk premium 97 00:05:43,040 --> 00:05:47,000 Speaker 7: that has crept into crude will also likely stay in tact. 98 00:05:47,839 --> 00:05:51,440 Speaker 2: Harry adds that understanding the US's role in what comes 99 00:05:51,480 --> 00:05:54,599 Speaker 2: next it will be crucial. Earlier this week, JP Morgan 100 00:05:54,640 --> 00:05:57,600 Speaker 2: warned that prices could reach one hundred and thirty dollars 101 00:05:57,640 --> 00:06:00,520 Speaker 2: about in a worst case scenario. In the Middle East. 102 00:06:00,960 --> 00:06:03,320 Speaker 8: Another market reaction. Equities are selling off in Asia. 103 00:06:03,360 --> 00:06:06,320 Speaker 3: In futures for Europe and the United States are sharply lower. 104 00:06:06,320 --> 00:06:09,479 Speaker 3: Burostocks fifty features down one point eight percent this morning 105 00:06:09,480 --> 00:06:12,440 Speaker 3: on Wall Street at smpe Mini's down one point six percent. 106 00:06:12,680 --> 00:06:14,479 Speaker 3: We've seen a move to haven assets as well. The 107 00:06:14,520 --> 00:06:17,080 Speaker 3: dollar is strengthened by three tens of one percent on 108 00:06:17,120 --> 00:06:20,320 Speaker 3: the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, reversing some of its recent weakness. 109 00:06:20,520 --> 00:06:23,080 Speaker 3: The euros currently trading four tenths week or at one 110 00:06:23,160 --> 00:06:26,120 Speaker 3: fifteen thirty five against the dollar. Gold prices have also 111 00:06:26,200 --> 00:06:29,320 Speaker 3: risen close to record highs, currently trading at three thy 112 00:06:29,400 --> 00:06:31,640 Speaker 3: four hundred and twenty eight dollars announced, up one and 113 00:06:31,680 --> 00:06:32,520 Speaker 3: a quarter percent. 114 00:06:33,040 --> 00:06:35,479 Speaker 2: Now, let's get to some other news this morning. One 115 00:06:35,480 --> 00:06:38,800 Speaker 2: of the two black boxes from the Air India plane 116 00:06:38,839 --> 00:06:42,120 Speaker 2: crash in a Medabad has now been recovered. According to 117 00:06:42,120 --> 00:06:47,000 Speaker 2: the Hindustan Times, the recording device has been secured, the 118 00:06:47,200 --> 00:06:50,080 Speaker 2: second is yet to be found. Two hundred and forty 119 00:06:50,080 --> 00:06:53,680 Speaker 2: one passengers on board the Boeing seven eight seven Dreamliner, 120 00:06:53,720 --> 00:06:57,320 Speaker 2: which was bound for London, died in the accident. A 121 00:06:57,839 --> 00:07:01,920 Speaker 2: forty year old UK citizen is the soul survivor. Laura 122 00:07:01,960 --> 00:07:05,160 Speaker 2: Savino is a former United Airlines captain. She says the 123 00:07:05,160 --> 00:07:08,479 Speaker 2: industry will be working to understand what went wrong. 124 00:07:08,880 --> 00:07:11,040 Speaker 9: So we know that they were highly trained. Was there 125 00:07:11,080 --> 00:07:15,320 Speaker 9: something mechanical? Was there some sort of a pilot oversight. 126 00:07:15,560 --> 00:07:19,800 Speaker 9: Chilots are very keen on understanding when a crash happens 127 00:07:19,920 --> 00:07:22,720 Speaker 9: to ensure that they themselves don't repeat those mistakes. 128 00:07:23,040 --> 00:07:27,880 Speaker 2: Former Airline Captain Laura Savino speaking there. Boeing CEO Kelly Ortbeg, 129 00:07:27,920 --> 00:07:30,240 Speaker 2: as well as the head of Commercial Aircraft have both 130 00:07:30,320 --> 00:07:32,880 Speaker 2: canceled their plans to attend the Paris Air Show, the 131 00:07:32,880 --> 00:07:35,960 Speaker 2: industry's most important annual gathering, following the incident. 132 00:07:36,560 --> 00:07:39,560 Speaker 3: And just one more word on market reaction, as the 133 00:07:39,640 --> 00:07:42,760 Speaker 3: shekel has just begun trading in Israel, sliding two point 134 00:07:42,920 --> 00:07:47,720 Speaker 3: seven percent against the US dollar following that attack. Well, 135 00:07:47,760 --> 00:07:49,240 Speaker 3: those are our top stories this morning. 136 00:07:49,400 --> 00:07:49,679 Speaker 8: Today. 137 00:07:49,680 --> 00:07:52,160 Speaker 3: We have full coverage of Israel's attack on a round 138 00:07:52,160 --> 00:07:54,360 Speaker 3: for you today and the response that we're getting. We'll 139 00:07:54,400 --> 00:07:56,679 Speaker 3: have reporting from the Middle East will have global reaction 140 00:07:56,800 --> 00:07:59,400 Speaker 3: and the turmoil that it sparked on markets, and if 141 00:07:59,400 --> 00:08:01,880 Speaker 3: you want to check out Bloomberg's latest coverage of this, 142 00:08:01,920 --> 00:08:03,480 Speaker 3: we have a live blog running. It's on the front 143 00:08:03,520 --> 00:08:06,400 Speaker 3: page of Bloomberg dot Com, also, of course on the terminal. 144 00:08:06,480 --> 00:08:09,320 Speaker 3: It's looking at all aspects of this, how countries around 145 00:08:09,320 --> 00:08:11,760 Speaker 3: the world are reacting, how businesses. We talked about some 146 00:08:11,800 --> 00:08:14,120 Speaker 3: of the flight disruption across the Middle East region as well, 147 00:08:14,160 --> 00:08:15,840 Speaker 3: and some of our latest analysis too. 148 00:08:16,000 --> 00:08:16,240 Speaker 9: Yeah. 149 00:08:16,280 --> 00:08:22,280 Speaker 2: Absolutely, in terms of Bloomberg Economics there analysis of this situation, 150 00:08:22,360 --> 00:08:25,600 Speaker 2: the risks are high that this will escalate into a 151 00:08:25,760 --> 00:08:30,080 Speaker 2: broader regional conflict, that is the deeper fear between these 152 00:08:30,160 --> 00:08:34,679 Speaker 2: two long standing adversaries, Israel and Iran. I think it's 153 00:08:34,760 --> 00:08:40,040 Speaker 2: very interesting to note, however, that we don't yet fully 154 00:08:40,160 --> 00:08:43,400 Speaker 2: understand the US's position, and this is what we're trying 155 00:08:43,440 --> 00:08:48,720 Speaker 2: to understand more fully. The reaction, though from within President 156 00:08:48,720 --> 00:08:51,880 Speaker 2: Trump's own party in Congress, does seem to be universally 157 00:08:51,920 --> 00:08:54,880 Speaker 2: supportive though of Israel. And as we say on that 158 00:08:54,920 --> 00:08:59,559 Speaker 2: Bloomberg blog, we've been talking about the House Speaker Mike Johnson. 159 00:09:00,120 --> 00:09:04,480 Speaker 2: He has posted on social media that Israel is right 160 00:09:04,720 --> 00:09:07,360 Speaker 2: in quotes and has a right to defend itself. So 161 00:09:07,400 --> 00:09:10,200 Speaker 2: that's reaction that we're getting from the United States in 162 00:09:10,240 --> 00:09:13,360 Speaker 2: this early hours period here in London. 163 00:09:13,679 --> 00:09:13,880 Speaker 10: Yeah. 164 00:09:13,920 --> 00:09:16,040 Speaker 3: Indeed, and hours after those strikes as well, Donald Trump 165 00:09:16,160 --> 00:09:17,840 Speaker 3: was speaking to Fox News and said that he was 166 00:09:17,920 --> 00:09:21,360 Speaker 3: aware of israel As action before it happened, and that 167 00:09:21,440 --> 00:09:24,680 Speaker 3: he hoped that Iran would continue negotiating as well. Plenty 168 00:09:24,720 --> 00:09:27,480 Speaker 3: more of course, on all aspects of the story, including 169 00:09:27,640 --> 00:09:30,160 Speaker 3: reaction of what this means for global markets, for the 170 00:09:30,200 --> 00:09:33,280 Speaker 3: economy on our live blog that's running. But let's get 171 00:09:33,360 --> 00:09:37,080 Speaker 3: the details of what has happened overnight, a major escalation 172 00:09:37,320 --> 00:09:40,439 Speaker 3: in the region with Israel launching those air strikes against 173 00:09:40,480 --> 00:09:44,120 Speaker 3: Iran's nuclear program and ballistic missile site. Let's go live 174 00:09:44,120 --> 00:09:46,839 Speaker 3: to Israel and Ethan Browner, a asraelbi ro chief, is 175 00:09:46,880 --> 00:09:47,800 Speaker 3: with us for more. 176 00:09:48,000 --> 00:09:48,920 Speaker 8: Ethan, good morning. 177 00:09:48,960 --> 00:09:51,480 Speaker 3: What, first of all do we know about these attacks 178 00:09:51,520 --> 00:09:53,200 Speaker 3: and the damage that was done by. 179 00:09:53,080 --> 00:09:57,400 Speaker 11: Them, Well, they're not handing out too many details. They 180 00:09:57,440 --> 00:10:00,480 Speaker 11: did say that they set two hundred aircraft after that 181 00:10:00,520 --> 00:10:04,640 Speaker 11: were involved in these strikes. They have named three key 182 00:10:04,720 --> 00:10:08,080 Speaker 11: people that they have killed, the chief of staff of 183 00:10:08,120 --> 00:10:11,160 Speaker 11: the military, the head of the Revolutionary Guard and the 184 00:10:11,240 --> 00:10:14,240 Speaker 11: head I think it was called the Emergency Command in Iran. 185 00:10:15,120 --> 00:10:19,400 Speaker 11: In terms of the actual damage, they have not handed 186 00:10:19,400 --> 00:10:23,040 Speaker 11: at too much information, but there's no question that Naton's 187 00:10:23,040 --> 00:10:26,600 Speaker 11: has been attacked, one of the Richmond sites and so forth, 188 00:10:26,880 --> 00:10:29,959 Speaker 11: where there's a bunch of sites across. There have been 189 00:10:30,120 --> 00:10:35,040 Speaker 11: five waves of flights against Iran and they're saying it 190 00:10:35,080 --> 00:10:37,480 Speaker 11: could last days. I was told by someone it could 191 00:10:37,480 --> 00:10:38,480 Speaker 11: be up to two weeks. 192 00:10:39,520 --> 00:10:42,760 Speaker 2: Iran has promised retaliation. What might that be. 193 00:10:44,559 --> 00:10:47,360 Speaker 11: Well, in theory, they've announced that they've already sent around 194 00:10:47,400 --> 00:10:49,959 Speaker 11: one hundred drones. They take some hours to get here, 195 00:10:50,679 --> 00:10:54,760 Speaker 11: but Iran does have some hundreds, perhaps a couple of 196 00:10:54,800 --> 00:10:58,880 Speaker 11: thousands of ballistic missiles. These are very very powerful and 197 00:10:59,000 --> 00:11:03,840 Speaker 11: large weapons, and they've sent several hundred at Israel in 198 00:11:03,840 --> 00:11:06,840 Speaker 11: the last year when they had their exchanges in April 199 00:11:06,880 --> 00:11:09,640 Speaker 11: and October. So we have to assume that that's what's 200 00:11:09,679 --> 00:11:13,400 Speaker 11: coming our way in coming hours or days. 201 00:11:15,040 --> 00:11:17,880 Speaker 3: Ethan, what do we understand about why Israel chose to 202 00:11:17,880 --> 00:11:23,720 Speaker 3: take this action now, Well, we have what we. 203 00:11:23,760 --> 00:11:26,840 Speaker 11: Knew before and what the Prime Minister and military officials 204 00:11:26,880 --> 00:11:29,640 Speaker 11: have said this morning. So what we knew before, which 205 00:11:29,679 --> 00:11:34,120 Speaker 11: is quite significant, is that Israel has long accused Iran 206 00:11:34,200 --> 00:11:37,120 Speaker 11: of seeking to destroy it and of building nuclear weapons 207 00:11:37,160 --> 00:11:41,000 Speaker 11: to that aim, to that end, And what has changed 208 00:11:41,040 --> 00:11:45,240 Speaker 11: in the last months is that proxy militias that Iran 209 00:11:45,360 --> 00:11:49,360 Speaker 11: runs in the region, Habelah, Hamas and so forth, have 210 00:11:49,520 --> 00:11:54,480 Speaker 11: been severely damaged by Israel, and so Israel felt that 211 00:11:54,520 --> 00:11:58,200 Speaker 11: this was in and Iran also, it's the attacks that 212 00:11:58,280 --> 00:12:02,400 Speaker 11: Israel cared out in Iran defense and missile making capacity 213 00:12:02,480 --> 00:12:06,160 Speaker 11: had been severely damaged, so before these could be heavily rebuilt, 214 00:12:06,200 --> 00:12:09,200 Speaker 11: Israel felt this was an important moment to take advantage 215 00:12:09,280 --> 00:12:14,160 Speaker 11: and to act. But two other things. One is that 216 00:12:14,240 --> 00:12:16,640 Speaker 11: they say this is what they've been announcing this morning, 217 00:12:16,679 --> 00:12:22,760 Speaker 11: that they have been watching around secretly and rapidly work 218 00:12:22,840 --> 00:12:26,480 Speaker 11: to meet to weaponize their enriched geranium. That is that 219 00:12:26,520 --> 00:12:29,920 Speaker 11: they're actively working toward a nuclear weapon, according to Israel, 220 00:12:30,160 --> 00:12:33,079 Speaker 11: in recent weeks, in a way that they've not announced. 221 00:12:33,360 --> 00:12:38,280 Speaker 11: And of course this President Trump, while officially and publicly 222 00:12:39,160 --> 00:12:42,640 Speaker 11: opposing this kind of activity, I think there's been a 223 00:12:42,640 --> 00:12:45,319 Speaker 11: bit of a wink and a nod by him, and 224 00:12:45,840 --> 00:12:49,920 Speaker 11: we'll see, but that's my impression. And so all those 225 00:12:49,960 --> 00:12:52,760 Speaker 11: factors together are with Joe Visrael to do it. Look, 226 00:12:52,800 --> 00:12:57,400 Speaker 11: there are doubtless political issues as well, this particular coalition, 227 00:12:57,559 --> 00:13:01,640 Speaker 11: this particular prime minister, and of course, in the wake 228 00:13:01,679 --> 00:13:06,120 Speaker 11: of October seventh, Israel's in a much more aggressive military 229 00:13:06,880 --> 00:13:08,520 Speaker 11: pose than it has ever been before. 230 00:13:09,960 --> 00:13:14,360 Speaker 2: But then it does mean that Iran, Israel, and the 231 00:13:14,520 --> 00:13:18,960 Speaker 2: US are locked potentially in an escalating crisis. What does 232 00:13:19,040 --> 00:13:23,080 Speaker 2: the wider region think about this? We've had initial reactions 233 00:13:23,160 --> 00:13:26,559 Speaker 2: from countries like Iman. What does it mean for the region? 234 00:13:27,760 --> 00:13:31,080 Speaker 11: Well, it obviously endangers the region, as you suggest, and 235 00:13:31,280 --> 00:13:33,480 Speaker 11: many in the region are pretty unhappy about it. 236 00:13:33,800 --> 00:13:36,240 Speaker 10: That's all clear, you know. 237 00:13:36,559 --> 00:13:39,480 Speaker 11: From I think from the American perspective, I think it's 238 00:13:39,559 --> 00:13:43,840 Speaker 11: unlikely that the Americans would not help defend Israel. I 239 00:13:43,840 --> 00:13:47,120 Speaker 11: think that they will help defend Israel. In October and 240 00:13:47,520 --> 00:13:51,840 Speaker 11: last April, when these missiles came back at Israel from Iran, 241 00:13:51,960 --> 00:13:55,880 Speaker 11: a bunch of other countries helped Israel, both the UK 242 00:13:56,040 --> 00:14:01,280 Speaker 11: and France and also quietly some Ara countries. I doubt 243 00:14:01,320 --> 00:14:03,040 Speaker 11: that the Arab countries are going to do much to 244 00:14:03,080 --> 00:14:05,360 Speaker 11: help Israel this time. I don't know about the UK 245 00:14:05,480 --> 00:14:08,000 Speaker 11: and France, which have been angry at Israel over its 246 00:14:08,040 --> 00:14:11,559 Speaker 11: war in Gaza. But I do think the US will 247 00:14:11,559 --> 00:14:13,880 Speaker 11: help out. And I think the other thing to remember 248 00:14:14,040 --> 00:14:19,040 Speaker 11: is that Israel has a pretty exceptional air defense system itself. 249 00:14:19,440 --> 00:14:25,480 Speaker 11: It's got an excellent bomb shelter system, and so I'm 250 00:14:25,520 --> 00:14:30,000 Speaker 11: sure some damage will happen here and doubt with some deaths, 251 00:14:30,120 --> 00:14:33,000 Speaker 11: but I doubt it'll be extensive, but we'll soon. 252 00:14:34,040 --> 00:14:37,000 Speaker 8: Okay, Ethan Bronar Ariz robi Orti for now, thank you. 253 00:14:37,360 --> 00:14:40,640 Speaker 2: Now let's turn to our EMEA News director Roslyn Mathieson, 254 00:14:40,640 --> 00:14:44,120 Speaker 2: who joins US now for more detailed analysis. President Chrump 255 00:14:44,480 --> 00:14:47,040 Speaker 2: was made aware of israel strikes on Iran before they 256 00:14:47,080 --> 00:14:51,160 Speaker 2: were launched. But this amidst, of course, the sixth round 257 00:14:51,240 --> 00:14:54,360 Speaker 2: of nuclear talks that are scheduled between the US and 258 00:14:54,440 --> 00:14:59,120 Speaker 2: Iran on Sunday, Roz, how much did the US know 259 00:14:59,440 --> 00:15:04,320 Speaker 2: and back the Israeli attack in terms of our analysis, Well. 260 00:15:04,120 --> 00:15:07,080 Speaker 12: They're saying that they were not involved in these strikes. 261 00:15:07,560 --> 00:15:10,200 Speaker 12: They said they were aware of them beforehand. That includes 262 00:15:10,520 --> 00:15:14,240 Speaker 12: the Secretary of State Marco Rubio's comments on that. But 263 00:15:14,280 --> 00:15:17,080 Speaker 12: of course you saw the US president only yesterday saying 264 00:15:17,080 --> 00:15:20,920 Speaker 12: that he really didn't want Israel to be striking Iran 265 00:15:21,120 --> 00:15:24,440 Speaker 12: in this fashion and the nuclear sites, saying that he 266 00:15:24,560 --> 00:15:27,520 Speaker 12: was concerned about what that would mean for escalation in 267 00:15:27,560 --> 00:15:30,560 Speaker 12: the region. And even though he himself has threatened Iran 268 00:15:30,760 --> 00:15:33,800 Speaker 12: so the US could come at i Ran directly, he 269 00:15:33,840 --> 00:15:36,520 Speaker 12: first wants to give these talks a chance, and he 270 00:15:36,560 --> 00:15:41,120 Speaker 12: really would prefer a deal with Iran on its nuclear 271 00:15:41,160 --> 00:15:45,200 Speaker 12: intentions and its nuclear enrichment. And those talks that were 272 00:15:45,200 --> 00:15:48,400 Speaker 12: scheduled for Aman on Sunday must now be quite up 273 00:15:48,440 --> 00:15:51,240 Speaker 12: in the air as a result. It's the language in 274 00:15:51,280 --> 00:15:54,880 Speaker 12: the US was quite cautious overnight. They're not exactly endorsing 275 00:15:55,000 --> 00:16:00,400 Speaker 12: the Israeli action, they're not overtly criticizing Israel publicly for it, 276 00:16:00,440 --> 00:16:03,000 Speaker 12: but you can imagine there's been quite a sense of 277 00:16:03,080 --> 00:16:06,760 Speaker 12: disquiet potentially behind the scenes. And what it tells you 278 00:16:06,800 --> 00:16:10,800 Speaker 12: about the relationship between Benjamin Netanya who and Donald Trump 279 00:16:10,920 --> 00:16:14,280 Speaker 12: that nettno Who felt he could go ahead in the 280 00:16:14,320 --> 00:16:17,560 Speaker 12: face of what was quite clearly US concern about such 281 00:16:17,560 --> 00:16:17,960 Speaker 12: a move. 282 00:16:18,400 --> 00:16:19,840 Speaker 2: Does that mean that Donald Trump no. 283 00:16:19,800 --> 00:16:23,920 Speaker 12: Longer has leverage over Netanya who argue the other leaders 284 00:16:23,960 --> 00:16:27,600 Speaker 12: lost leverage as well against him, or was there some 285 00:16:28,120 --> 00:16:31,480 Speaker 12: kind of tacit understanding behind the scenes on this but 286 00:16:31,560 --> 00:16:34,040 Speaker 12: certainly it seems as that they went ahead in the 287 00:16:34,080 --> 00:16:36,840 Speaker 12: face of the US advising them not to. 288 00:16:37,280 --> 00:16:40,080 Speaker 3: Well, we're starting to get reaction to the events that 289 00:16:40,120 --> 00:16:43,600 Speaker 3: have unfolded in the past few hours, including from around 290 00:16:43,600 --> 00:16:45,440 Speaker 3: the region as well. What have we heard in terms 291 00:16:45,440 --> 00:16:46,400 Speaker 3: of Middle East reaction. 292 00:16:46,920 --> 00:16:50,560 Speaker 12: Well, obviously there's been expressions of concern Aman, which has 293 00:16:50,600 --> 00:16:53,760 Speaker 12: been the place that's been hosting these talks and obviously 294 00:16:53,840 --> 00:16:57,640 Speaker 12: keen to see them continue, but also Saudi Arabia, which 295 00:16:57,680 --> 00:16:59,920 Speaker 12: is no particular friend of aroand you'd have to say, 296 00:17:00,040 --> 00:17:04,480 Speaker 12: but also no doubt very concerned again about the prospect 297 00:17:04,480 --> 00:17:07,640 Speaker 12: of escalation in the region. I mean, we've had years 298 00:17:07,680 --> 00:17:12,320 Speaker 12: of recent conflict inclaning directly between Israel and Iran that 299 00:17:12,480 --> 00:17:15,520 Speaker 12: seem to have settled down, and all the hope had 300 00:17:15,520 --> 00:17:18,920 Speaker 12: been that there'd be an opportunity to move towards a 301 00:17:19,080 --> 00:17:22,480 Speaker 12: more regional stability. That really throws this in the air 302 00:17:22,640 --> 00:17:26,720 Speaker 12: with the strikes that have happened overnight, and so Saudi 303 00:17:26,760 --> 00:17:31,080 Speaker 12: Arabia very concerned about that country is closing airspace in 304 00:17:31,119 --> 00:17:33,119 Speaker 12: the region. So you get that kind of sense of 305 00:17:33,160 --> 00:17:37,080 Speaker 12: disruption for a start to activity there, but also you 306 00:17:37,119 --> 00:17:40,480 Speaker 12: get the worry that Iran will retaliate at some point. 307 00:17:40,640 --> 00:17:43,960 Speaker 12: They've sent some drones towards Israel this morning, but you 308 00:17:43,960 --> 00:17:47,920 Speaker 12: wouldn't say that one hundred drones is really their prime retaliation. 309 00:17:48,840 --> 00:17:51,520 Speaker 2: We have forgot a statement out from the Prime Minisa 310 00:17:51,600 --> 00:17:53,800 Speaker 2: Hire in the UK on this issue. The reports of 311 00:17:53,840 --> 00:17:57,800 Speaker 2: these strikes are concerning and we urge all parties to 312 00:17:57,800 --> 00:18:01,200 Speaker 2: step back and reduce tensions urgently. Escalation serves no one 313 00:18:01,280 --> 00:18:04,240 Speaker 2: in the region. According to Prime Minister kistyle At, stability 314 00:18:04,280 --> 00:18:06,000 Speaker 2: in the Middle East must be the priority, and we 315 00:18:06,040 --> 00:18:08,880 Speaker 2: are engaging partners that de escalate. Now is the time 316 00:18:08,920 --> 00:18:13,159 Speaker 2: for restraint, calm and a return to diplomacy. European countries 317 00:18:13,160 --> 00:18:17,119 Speaker 2: have largely been sidelined in the nuclear negotiations between the 318 00:18:17,240 --> 00:18:22,399 Speaker 2: US and Iran. How relevant do we really think the 319 00:18:22,440 --> 00:18:24,159 Speaker 2: Europeans are going to be in this? What do you 320 00:18:24,240 --> 00:18:26,880 Speaker 2: think is going to be their response and their stance? 321 00:18:27,200 --> 00:18:29,879 Speaker 2: Whilst countries in Europe have been increasingly at odds with 322 00:18:30,040 --> 00:18:32,960 Speaker 2: Israel over its actions in Gaza, Well. 323 00:18:32,800 --> 00:18:36,199 Speaker 12: That's right, so there's already those tensions over Gaza, and 324 00:18:36,320 --> 00:18:39,679 Speaker 12: countries in Europe plus the UK have grown increasingly vocal 325 00:18:39,680 --> 00:18:43,920 Speaker 12: about the humanitarian situation there directly critical in a way 326 00:18:44,280 --> 00:18:47,760 Speaker 12: of Israel, so that relationship is already pretty fraught. But 327 00:18:47,760 --> 00:18:50,399 Speaker 12: you'd have to say that that criticism has not particularly 328 00:18:50,400 --> 00:18:54,600 Speaker 12: deterred in Yaho in Gaza, so criticism of this action 329 00:18:54,720 --> 00:18:57,760 Speaker 12: is unlikely to deter him when it comes to Iran 330 00:18:58,000 --> 00:19:00,600 Speaker 12: as well. I mean, it seems again there a lot 331 00:19:00,600 --> 00:19:04,920 Speaker 12: of wholehearted endorsement for this action. You didn't see reports 332 00:19:04,920 --> 00:19:08,080 Speaker 12: that there was a lot of collaboration with militaries from 333 00:19:08,080 --> 00:19:11,399 Speaker 12: other countries to get this done, and so there is 334 00:19:11,440 --> 00:19:14,400 Speaker 12: a sense of stepping back from it and showing displeasure 335 00:19:14,480 --> 00:19:19,320 Speaker 12: simply by not being involved. But again, the European and 336 00:19:19,440 --> 00:19:23,080 Speaker 12: UK criticism of Israel has been picking up for months 337 00:19:23,080 --> 00:19:27,520 Speaker 12: with no discernible impact. Indeed, it seems like they're still 338 00:19:27,520 --> 00:19:31,560 Speaker 12: continuing to buy weapons from Israel, at least some countries are, 339 00:19:32,359 --> 00:19:35,120 Speaker 12: and in beefing up their own defense in Europe, it's 340 00:19:35,200 --> 00:19:37,280 Speaker 12: very clear that they will probably have to rely on 341 00:19:37,320 --> 00:19:43,160 Speaker 12: some equipment and technology from Israel, so that relationship will 342 00:19:43,160 --> 00:19:45,800 Speaker 12: continue either way. But again you can see that Benjamin 343 00:19:46,000 --> 00:19:48,640 Speaker 12: na who did this in the face of whatever concerns 344 00:19:48,680 --> 00:19:50,720 Speaker 12: the US express so he wasn't going to listen to 345 00:19:50,720 --> 00:19:52,640 Speaker 12: the us, he wasn't going to listen to Europe. 346 00:19:52,920 --> 00:19:56,040 Speaker 2: Yeah, no, indeed, Wills, thank you so much for being 347 00:19:56,040 --> 00:19:57,919 Speaker 2: with us this morning. That is Blue Big ZMEA news 348 00:19:57,960 --> 00:20:01,240 Speaker 2: director Willslyn Matherson. One other piece of news this morning 349 00:20:01,280 --> 00:20:07,119 Speaker 2: from the IAEA, which is the uns Atomic Oversight Agency. Effectively, 350 00:20:07,160 --> 00:20:09,359 Speaker 2: they say that there is no increase in radiation at 351 00:20:09,359 --> 00:20:13,720 Speaker 2: Iran's Natan's site. This according to AFP News Agency. So 352 00:20:14,359 --> 00:20:19,520 Speaker 2: monitoring of course those nuclear sites and any possible fallout 353 00:20:19,560 --> 00:20:21,920 Speaker 2: from the attack after that. So that's the latest news there. 354 00:20:22,000 --> 00:20:25,280 Speaker 3: Well, the story is reverberating across markets. Oil prices spiking 355 00:20:25,359 --> 00:20:28,600 Speaker 3: as much as thirteen percent at one stage, Equity futures 356 00:20:28,640 --> 00:20:31,760 Speaker 3: in Europe and on Wall Street are slumping. Our market's 357 00:20:31,760 --> 00:20:34,000 Speaker 3: live stretch, as Mary Nicola joins us. Now for more 358 00:20:34,320 --> 00:20:36,840 Speaker 3: on that, Mary, let's start with the oil price reaction 359 00:20:37,119 --> 00:20:37,960 Speaker 3: in context. 360 00:20:38,000 --> 00:20:39,600 Speaker 8: How big are the moves that we're seeing. 361 00:20:39,920 --> 00:20:42,360 Speaker 1: Yeah, if we look at previous history and what we've 362 00:20:42,400 --> 00:20:46,480 Speaker 1: seen days when there's when we get these risk off reactions, 363 00:20:46,560 --> 00:20:49,359 Speaker 1: it's quite big. And so for example, we've seen an 364 00:20:49,400 --> 00:20:53,000 Speaker 1: eight percent increase in bret crude, and of course the 365 00:20:53,040 --> 00:20:56,480 Speaker 1: implications are large because of course we're seeing a sigh 366 00:20:56,520 --> 00:21:00,479 Speaker 1: of relief about inflation and the plications of inflation, and 367 00:21:00,560 --> 00:21:03,280 Speaker 1: now this is coming back to haunt us. So the 368 00:21:03,640 --> 00:21:06,240 Speaker 1: fact that we're seeing oil prices spike you again, of 369 00:21:06,280 --> 00:21:09,080 Speaker 1: course you're going to see some concerns about inflation, especially 370 00:21:09,080 --> 00:21:10,280 Speaker 1: in places like India. 371 00:21:10,840 --> 00:21:14,120 Speaker 2: Yeah. Indeed, in terms of the rest of the market reaction, 372 00:21:14,240 --> 00:21:17,760 Speaker 2: then the move to safe haven assets, the dollar, gold 373 00:21:18,200 --> 00:21:22,360 Speaker 2: nearing a new record high investors, how concerned are they 374 00:21:22,359 --> 00:21:24,240 Speaker 2: if you look across those markets. 375 00:21:24,680 --> 00:21:27,639 Speaker 1: Yeah, it's been very clear since the beginning, and since 376 00:21:27,720 --> 00:21:31,560 Speaker 1: the news first hit the wires, that investors are flocking 377 00:21:31,560 --> 00:21:32,080 Speaker 1: to safety. 378 00:21:32,160 --> 00:21:33,800 Speaker 10: So when we first heard the news. 379 00:21:34,000 --> 00:21:37,560 Speaker 1: Your typical reaction of gold, the Swiss frank and the 380 00:21:37,640 --> 00:21:41,480 Speaker 1: Japanese yen we're doing very well. The US dollar wasn't 381 00:21:41,840 --> 00:21:45,320 Speaker 1: catching very much a strong bid, but it was against 382 00:21:45,400 --> 00:21:49,920 Speaker 1: a lot of the em currencies. So there is clearly 383 00:21:50,040 --> 00:21:53,080 Speaker 1: a risk off reaction. Clearly that the risk off reaction 384 00:21:53,200 --> 00:21:56,080 Speaker 1: is not only in currency markets, but are obviously in 385 00:21:56,080 --> 00:22:00,480 Speaker 1: equities as well, and so in general. But what we've 386 00:22:00,480 --> 00:22:03,120 Speaker 1: seen in general is the fact that gold has been 387 00:22:03,920 --> 00:22:07,240 Speaker 1: a clear indication of flight to safety. 388 00:22:07,920 --> 00:22:09,720 Speaker 3: Yeah, and I mean looking ahead to what we should 389 00:22:09,720 --> 00:22:13,080 Speaker 3: be expecting for the trading day ahead. Equity feature is 390 00:22:13,119 --> 00:22:16,000 Speaker 3: sharply lower in Europe and on Wall Street as well. 391 00:22:16,040 --> 00:22:18,720 Speaker 3: And you know, the euro under pressure because of the 392 00:22:18,920 --> 00:22:20,680 Speaker 3: strength that we see returning to the dollar as well 393 00:22:20,720 --> 00:22:22,120 Speaker 3: as them removing the pound too. 394 00:22:22,640 --> 00:22:25,680 Speaker 1: Yeah, and it's likely to stay a risk off move. 395 00:22:25,760 --> 00:22:28,760 Speaker 1: If not, it might even be exacerbated, especially if we're 396 00:22:28,800 --> 00:22:32,760 Speaker 1: looking if they're discussing a retaliation, and if that retaliation 397 00:22:32,920 --> 00:22:37,280 Speaker 1: happens during the during the trading hours of London or 398 00:22:37,320 --> 00:22:40,200 Speaker 1: New York, that just only exacerbates the pressure. The fact 399 00:22:40,320 --> 00:22:44,280 Speaker 1: is that geopolitical uncertainty is very strong and it lingers, 400 00:22:44,720 --> 00:22:47,880 Speaker 1: and as a result, it's a matter of in many 401 00:22:47,920 --> 00:22:51,080 Speaker 1: of these cases, it's a matter of traders would rather 402 00:22:51,160 --> 00:22:53,560 Speaker 1: solve first and then ask questions later. 403 00:22:53,920 --> 00:22:56,080 Speaker 2: Okay, Mary, thank you so much for being with us 404 00:22:56,080 --> 00:22:58,800 Speaker 2: this morning. Our market's live stash is Mary Nicola. So 405 00:22:58,880 --> 00:23:00,919 Speaker 2: with the latest on the market, which of course we 406 00:23:00,960 --> 00:23:04,080 Speaker 2: will keep across for you throughout the morning and as 407 00:23:04,080 --> 00:23:06,720 Speaker 2: soon as London starts trading, of course that will be 408 00:23:06,840 --> 00:23:09,800 Speaker 2: very important to understand what the market reaction is once 409 00:23:10,000 --> 00:23:10,879 Speaker 2: London is awake. 410 00:23:11,400 --> 00:23:13,600 Speaker 3: Well, that's bring you more analysis now on the story 411 00:23:13,640 --> 00:23:16,719 Speaker 3: that we're following throughout the program this morning, this attack 412 00:23:16,880 --> 00:23:21,760 Speaker 3: by Israel on Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs. We've 413 00:23:21,800 --> 00:23:24,600 Speaker 3: been discussing this with Javid Ali. He was former Senior 414 00:23:24,600 --> 00:23:27,480 Speaker 3: Director for counter Terrorism at the US National Security Council 415 00:23:27,560 --> 00:23:30,679 Speaker 3: during the first Trump administration. He's now an associate professor 416 00:23:30,760 --> 00:23:34,080 Speaker 3: of practice at the University of Michigan. We started by 417 00:23:34,280 --> 00:23:39,280 Speaker 3: asking him why this strike represents a significant escalation in 418 00:23:39,320 --> 00:23:39,880 Speaker 3: the conflict. 419 00:23:40,680 --> 00:23:45,880 Speaker 13: What makes this qualitatively and quantitatively different is just the 420 00:23:45,920 --> 00:23:49,240 Speaker 13: scope and severity of it. It has apparently hit one 421 00:23:49,280 --> 00:23:54,600 Speaker 13: of the key sites in Iran's nuclear enterprise, Natan's facility, 422 00:23:54,760 --> 00:23:57,520 Speaker 13: one of the key uranium and richment sites. 423 00:23:57,840 --> 00:24:01,440 Speaker 10: But what I find very interesting and of that which. 424 00:24:01,280 --> 00:24:04,680 Speaker 13: Is certainly an escalation between Israel and Iran, is the 425 00:24:04,680 --> 00:24:10,960 Speaker 13: fact that several very senior Iranian military officials and or 426 00:24:11,119 --> 00:24:14,399 Speaker 13: nuclear scientists have been part of that nuclear program within 427 00:24:14,640 --> 00:24:19,360 Speaker 13: the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps have been apparently killed or injured. 428 00:24:19,480 --> 00:24:23,639 Speaker 13: And so Israel has really hit Iran hard, both in 429 00:24:23,760 --> 00:24:27,520 Speaker 13: terms of the physical infrastructure of Iran's nuclear program, but 430 00:24:27,640 --> 00:24:30,199 Speaker 13: also the human capital of it, and done it in 431 00:24:30,560 --> 00:24:32,240 Speaker 13: one fell swoop on the. 432 00:24:32,280 --> 00:24:36,080 Speaker 3: Question of those those individuals that were targeted HI damaging 433 00:24:36,119 --> 00:24:39,640 Speaker 3: a bow, is that to Iran's military. 434 00:24:39,840 --> 00:24:44,000 Speaker 13: Well, Iran has a large military, and these aren't the 435 00:24:44,000 --> 00:24:49,560 Speaker 13: first very senior Iranian military officials or even nuclear scientists 436 00:24:49,600 --> 00:24:54,639 Speaker 13: who've been killed over the last twenty plus years. And 437 00:24:54,840 --> 00:24:58,960 Speaker 13: going back to something your listeners might remember in January 438 00:24:59,000 --> 00:25:02,520 Speaker 13: twenty twenty, when the the United States struck and killed 439 00:25:02,520 --> 00:25:07,080 Speaker 13: in a targeted operation cost some Solomani, who was not 440 00:25:07,200 --> 00:25:09,879 Speaker 13: the head of the ier GC, the Revolutionary. 441 00:25:09,240 --> 00:25:11,720 Speaker 10: Guard Corps, but an element within it. 442 00:25:11,880 --> 00:25:16,200 Speaker 13: The Revolutionary Guard Corps coulds force, which is Iran's unconventional 443 00:25:16,200 --> 00:25:21,080 Speaker 13: warfare wing and a very powerful organization, and Solomoni was 444 00:25:21,320 --> 00:25:26,800 Speaker 13: arguably the second most powerful man in Iran. And so 445 00:25:27,119 --> 00:25:31,679 Speaker 13: if the United States could kill Solomani and Iran was 446 00:25:31,680 --> 00:25:34,760 Speaker 13: stood that in his replacement as a guy named Ismail Gani, 447 00:25:35,080 --> 00:25:37,520 Speaker 13: and the ier GC didn't for the most part, or 448 00:25:37,560 --> 00:25:39,760 Speaker 13: the Kutz Force didn't really miss a beat in the 449 00:25:39,760 --> 00:25:42,919 Speaker 13: aftermath of Solomoni's death. I think Iran will have to 450 00:25:42,920 --> 00:25:45,720 Speaker 13: wait and see how much pressure Israel continues to apply. 451 00:25:45,840 --> 00:25:47,920 Speaker 10: But there are dozens of other. 452 00:25:48,200 --> 00:25:52,399 Speaker 13: Generals probably that could move up the ranks to fill 453 00:25:52,480 --> 00:25:53,720 Speaker 13: the leadership positions. 454 00:25:54,119 --> 00:25:57,480 Speaker 2: Iran has said that Israel carried out this attack in 455 00:25:57,560 --> 00:26:01,000 Speaker 2: coordination with the United States. Trump has said that the 456 00:26:01,080 --> 00:26:05,399 Speaker 2: US remained committed to a diplomatic solution. There is a 457 00:26:05,480 --> 00:26:10,359 Speaker 2: significant disconnect here. What do you make of this Iranian accusation. 458 00:26:11,040 --> 00:26:13,800 Speaker 10: The Iranian Defense minister yesterday said. 459 00:26:13,520 --> 00:26:18,439 Speaker 13: That even if the US did not overtly support an 460 00:26:18,560 --> 00:26:22,840 Speaker 13: Israeli attack against Iranian nuclear sites or military officials and 461 00:26:23,000 --> 00:26:27,520 Speaker 13: what we've seen play out that he said that Iran 462 00:26:27,560 --> 00:26:30,560 Speaker 13: would still hold the US accountable and would potentially attack 463 00:26:30,720 --> 00:26:34,040 Speaker 13: US military facilities in the region, of which there are 464 00:26:34,160 --> 00:26:40,879 Speaker 13: several within reach of Iran's missiles and other capabilities. Now, 465 00:26:40,920 --> 00:26:44,119 Speaker 13: they haven't followed through on that, and maybe this is 466 00:26:44,320 --> 00:26:45,200 Speaker 13: just rhetoric. 467 00:26:45,240 --> 00:26:46,960 Speaker 10: And as far as we know, the US. 468 00:26:46,880 --> 00:26:50,280 Speaker 13: Was not directly involved at least in firing the weapons 469 00:26:50,359 --> 00:26:54,080 Speaker 13: or sort of the actual manifestation of the attack. Now, 470 00:26:54,119 --> 00:26:57,200 Speaker 13: there could have been other types of support behind the scenes, 471 00:26:57,359 --> 00:27:00,880 Speaker 13: but as far as what is being reported public, there's 472 00:27:00,920 --> 00:27:03,919 Speaker 13: no over US hand to this. 473 00:27:04,040 --> 00:27:07,000 Speaker 10: But it doesn't mean that Iran still won't try to 474 00:27:07,040 --> 00:27:08,199 Speaker 10: hold the US responsibility. 475 00:27:08,200 --> 00:27:11,680 Speaker 13: But if they do, I think then that would only 476 00:27:11,760 --> 00:27:16,040 Speaker 13: further put Iran in a very difficult spot because the 477 00:27:16,119 --> 00:27:20,200 Speaker 13: US could hit Iran exponentially harder than Israel has already 478 00:27:20,240 --> 00:27:20,560 Speaker 13: hit it. 479 00:27:21,400 --> 00:27:23,920 Speaker 2: What do you expect the response to be from Iran? 480 00:27:24,680 --> 00:27:27,640 Speaker 2: Is the country capable of fighting back? And what does 481 00:27:27,680 --> 00:27:30,680 Speaker 2: it mean very importantly for the wider region. 482 00:27:31,480 --> 00:27:33,719 Speaker 13: Yeah, and this is something I've given a lot of 483 00:27:33,760 --> 00:27:37,119 Speaker 13: thought to, certainly over the past few hours. And as 484 00:27:37,160 --> 00:27:41,120 Speaker 13: someone who was studied and observed Iran certainly my government 485 00:27:41,119 --> 00:27:43,840 Speaker 13: career and even before that, they I would have to 486 00:27:43,840 --> 00:27:47,639 Speaker 13: assess they have a significant amount of capability that they 487 00:27:47,680 --> 00:27:49,520 Speaker 13: have not either used or. 488 00:27:49,560 --> 00:27:52,840 Speaker 10: Lost even up until today. 489 00:27:53,240 --> 00:27:57,159 Speaker 13: And I expect the Iranians to retaliate because they have 490 00:27:57,240 --> 00:28:01,399 Speaker 13: been hit by Israel her than Israel's ever hit them, 491 00:28:01,400 --> 00:28:05,200 Speaker 13: even going back to last year. And again the scope 492 00:28:05,240 --> 00:28:10,000 Speaker 13: and scale of what's unfolded, So will it be will 493 00:28:10,000 --> 00:28:12,879 Speaker 13: it look like the Iranian response in April where they 494 00:28:12,920 --> 00:28:18,840 Speaker 13: fired hundreds of up to three hundred crews ballistic and 495 00:28:19,200 --> 00:28:22,600 Speaker 13: missiles and then drones against different targets in israel I 496 00:28:22,640 --> 00:28:26,280 Speaker 13: suspect that's potentially an option, and they probably have thousands 497 00:28:26,280 --> 00:28:28,760 Speaker 13: and thousands of those types of weapons that they haven't 498 00:28:28,760 --> 00:28:29,240 Speaker 13: even used. 499 00:28:29,320 --> 00:28:30,480 Speaker 10: Or lost. 500 00:28:31,400 --> 00:28:36,760 Speaker 13: They probably have a plan to consider attacking maritime shipping 501 00:28:36,760 --> 00:28:41,040 Speaker 13: and the Persian Gulf and either with those same type 502 00:28:41,040 --> 00:28:45,720 Speaker 13: of weapons systems or other type of attack capabilities. 503 00:28:46,640 --> 00:28:47,640 Speaker 10: It's been well. 504 00:28:47,360 --> 00:28:51,360 Speaker 13: Documented that Iran has offensive cyber capabilities that they used 505 00:28:51,400 --> 00:28:56,160 Speaker 13: against different targets throughout the world, So will Iran unleash those. 506 00:28:57,000 --> 00:29:00,960 Speaker 13: Iran has the axis of resistance with moss As Bullah 507 00:29:01,080 --> 00:29:04,200 Speaker 13: the Huthis, but as we know, they have been significantly 508 00:29:04,200 --> 00:29:06,320 Speaker 13: degraded over the past year and a half by Israel 509 00:29:06,360 --> 00:29:09,120 Speaker 13: and to an extent, the United States. So I'm not 510 00:29:09,160 --> 00:29:11,640 Speaker 13: sure the access of resistance partners are going to be 511 00:29:11,640 --> 00:29:14,400 Speaker 13: able to do much for Iran. But then Iran also 512 00:29:14,520 --> 00:29:17,320 Speaker 13: has this unconventional warfare wing that I talked about, the 513 00:29:17,400 --> 00:29:19,920 Speaker 13: Goods Force, and they have an intelligence service, the Ministry 514 00:29:19,960 --> 00:29:24,360 Speaker 13: of Intelligence and Security, and they can operate globally. 515 00:29:24,440 --> 00:29:26,320 Speaker 10: May not be able to do what Israel did. 516 00:29:26,680 --> 00:29:32,000 Speaker 13: As significantly, but they could probably try to engage in 517 00:29:32,240 --> 00:29:36,280 Speaker 13: targeted assassinations or kidnap plots or other things. And these 518 00:29:36,320 --> 00:29:38,920 Speaker 13: all sound pretty terrible to contemplate, but I think this 519 00:29:38,960 --> 00:29:43,040 Speaker 13: is the reality of what Iran must have fought through 520 00:29:43,080 --> 00:29:46,520 Speaker 13: in terms of options. If Israel launched the kind of 521 00:29:46,640 --> 00:29:49,720 Speaker 13: campaign that it actually has, so I think this has 522 00:29:49,720 --> 00:29:52,880 Speaker 13: the potential to get very nasty with both sides, and 523 00:29:52,920 --> 00:29:55,360 Speaker 13: I do think Iran is going to have to at 524 00:29:55,440 --> 00:29:58,600 Speaker 13: least try to hit back in a way that it 525 00:29:58,680 --> 00:30:02,360 Speaker 13: hasn't yet because they have been hit so hard by Israel. 526 00:30:05,280 --> 00:30:08,000 Speaker 3: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on the 527 00:30:08,080 --> 00:30:11,120 Speaker 3: stories making news from London to Wall Street and beyond. 528 00:30:11,400 --> 00:30:15,360 Speaker 2: Look for us on your podcast feed every morning, on Apple, Spotify, 529 00:30:15,480 --> 00:30:17,400 Speaker 2: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. 530 00:30:17,480 --> 00:30:20,480 Speaker 3: You can also listen live each morning on London DAB Radio, 531 00:30:20,520 --> 00:30:23,240 Speaker 3: the Bloomberg Business app, and Bloomberg dot Com. 532 00:30:23,280 --> 00:30:26,040 Speaker 2: Our flagship New York station is also available on your 533 00:30:26,080 --> 00:30:30,720 Speaker 2: Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 534 00:30:31,000 --> 00:30:33,080 Speaker 8: I'm Caroline Hipka and I'm Stephen Carroll. 535 00:30:33,120 --> 00:30:35,480 Speaker 3: Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you 536 00:30:35,520 --> 00:30:38,200 Speaker 3: need to start your day right here on Bloomberg day 537 00:30:38,200 --> 00:30:42,920 Speaker 3: Break Europe.