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Speaker 1: Broadcasting live to New York, Gloomberg eleventh to Washington, d C,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg to Boston, Bloomberg twelve hunds to San Francisco, Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: to the Country Channel one ninety and around the globe

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Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Radiolus, Bloomberg dot Com. This is Bloomberg Surveillance.

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Speaker 1: Good morning. It is seven thirty on Wall Street and

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Speaker 1: Michael McKay along with Tom Keenes and news here Freeport

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Speaker 1: mcmaren uh. They're trying to pay down debts, so they're

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Speaker 1: going to sell off a copper mine in the Democratic

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Speaker 1: Republic of Congo. The buyer China molybdenum. Two point six

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Speaker 1: billion dollars is the price tag. Lending Club announced this

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Speaker 1: morning that the founder of the company and the CEO,

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Speaker 1: Ronald Laplanche, resigned internal review of loan sales to a

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Speaker 1: single investor apparently did not turn out, while President Scott

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Speaker 1: Sanborn is going to be the acting CEO and HCP

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Speaker 1: is gonna spend offense. HCR manicer portfolio of skilled nursing

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Speaker 1: and assisted living assets, gonna make it a publicly traded reat.

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Speaker 1: It will own more than three properties earning an annual

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Speaker 1: rent of four hundred eighty five million dollars. The company

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Speaker 1: says h CP is going to focus on high growth

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Speaker 1: healthcare going forward. Let's check it with Michael barn Now

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Speaker 1: get the latest world and national headlines. Mike, thank you

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Speaker 1: very much. Today, as the deadline set by the US

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Speaker 1: Justice Department for North Carolina Governor Pat mccruary to declare

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Speaker 1: he will not try to enforce a new law limiting

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Speaker 1: protections for LGBT people, McCrary says it is common sense

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Speaker 1: legislation and accused Washington of being a bully, stands could

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Speaker 1: risk federal funding and lead to a federal lawsuit. Fire

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Speaker 1: officials in Alberta, Canada, are hoping that cooler temperatures and

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Speaker 1: light rain forecast for the next few days will help

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Speaker 1: them get the upper hand on a raging wildfire that

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Speaker 1: has burned almost four hundred thousand acres. Much of the

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Speaker 1: town of Fort McMurray has been blackened. Chad Morrison is

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Speaker 1: with Alberta Wildlife, our first priority is human life and

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Speaker 1: communities and uh, we're gonna always put our air tankers

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Speaker 1: and our firefighters there to protect that as our first priority. Meanwhile,

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Speaker 1: a member of parliament who has toured Fort. McMurray says

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Speaker 1: the town's hospital, schools, and treatment plant are still functioning.

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Speaker 1: Trusury Secretary Jacob Blue travels to Puerto Rico today as

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Speaker 1: part of the Obama administration's campaign the pressure Congress to

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Speaker 1: come up with a solution for the U S territories

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Speaker 1: debt crisis. Global News twenty four hours a day, powered

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Speaker 1: by our twenty four hundred journalists more than a hundred

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Speaker 1: fifty news bureaus from around the world. I'm michaelu Bar Mike,

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Speaker 1: thank you very much. Time now for the land Rover

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Speaker 1: Partipani Bluemberg NBC Sports Update. Here's John Stasha, Thanks Mike.

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Speaker 1: After getting swept last weekend in Boston, the Yankees were

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Speaker 1: open to turn the tables at the stadium. Unable to

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Speaker 1: complete the sweet last night, losing five to one. Everyone

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Speaker 1: on our home run two solo shots by David Ortiz,

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Speaker 1: Dustin Pedroia two one shot before the first out of

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Speaker 1: the night. The only Yankee run a ninth inning homer

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Speaker 1: by Brett Gardner. Stephen Wright complete game three hitter for Boston,

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Speaker 1: while Luis Severino lost again is now owing five Yanks

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Speaker 1: and Royals tonight. Or Aldus Chapman can make his debut.

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Speaker 1: His thirty games suspension has ended Metzo in l A.

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Speaker 1: After two losses in San Diego, they came back in

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Speaker 1: salvn to split, winning four to three. Another homer for

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Speaker 1: un A. Sesspenis is eleventh, leads the league in RBIs

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Speaker 1: Matt Harvey ten strikeouts for the win. That's it for

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Speaker 1: the Islanders, a season that had their first playoff series

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Speaker 1: win in twenty three years. They took Game one of

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Speaker 1: Tampa Babe. They lost the next four games, the lightning

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Speaker 1: end of the Aisle season yesterday for to nothing. Tampa

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Speaker 1: Bay back in the East Finals, where last year they

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Speaker 1: took out the Rangers. Cleveland has reached the NBA's East Finals,

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Speaker 1: still without a postseason lost this year one hundred to

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Speaker 1: ninety nine in Atlanta, forty one point for Kevin Durant.

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Speaker 1: Last night, Oklahoma City pulled away from San Antonio one

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Speaker 1: nineties seven time that series at two with the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: NBC Sports Upcake, I'm John Stamp Channa thank you John

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Speaker 1: Listen Uh just a moment ago. The Tribune Publishing Company

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Speaker 1: doesn't want Gonnet to continue their efforts to buy the company.

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Speaker 1: They've adopted a shareholder rights plan, would issue more stock

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Speaker 1: if somebody gets of the stock, So we'll see how

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Speaker 1: that plays out. This morning. Tribune trying to fend off gnnet.

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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg surveillance. I'm Michael mckeey. We are seeing

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Speaker 1: shares higher this morning. SMP features up, six down, futures up.

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Speaker 1: The stock six hundred is four points higher in Europe today,

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Speaker 1: So sort of global rally underway the first trading day

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Speaker 1: after the jobs report. Time now for the Bloomberg n

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Speaker 1: j I T STEM Report, brought you by New Jersey

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Speaker 1: Institute of Technology, investing more than a hundred and ten

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Speaker 1: million dollars a year and applied research to solve problems

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Speaker 1: and improve life. Learn more at Stories of Innovation dot

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Speaker 1: n j I T dot DU. Here's Bob Moon, Michael,

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Speaker 1: thank you very much. Here's what's happening in science, technology,

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Speaker 1: engineering and math. Twitter has cut off you WES intelligence

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Speaker 1: agencies from using a key analytics service for surveillance. The

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Speaker 1: Wall Street General reports Twitter partner Data Minor sifts through

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Speaker 1: public tweets to sell information in newsrooms and government agencies.

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Speaker 1: The General reports Twitter has been providing information to US

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Speaker 1: intelligence agencies for two years, but has never been authorized

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Speaker 1: to do so for surveillance purposes. Seismic surveying has been

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Speaker 1: compared to hearing dynamite explode or standing next to a

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Speaker 1: jet engine. It involves blasting the ocean floor with sound

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Speaker 1: waves that bounts off the seabed and are recorded by ships,

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Speaker 1: and it's extremely useful in finding deposits of oil and

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Speaker 1: natural gas, but there is concerned it can be harmful

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Speaker 1: to marine life, including endangered whales, turtles, and dolphins. Now

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Speaker 1: to u S, senators and environmental groups from around the

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Speaker 1: country are trying to ban the practice in the Atlantic Ocean,

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Speaker 1: and an academic economist was removed from an American Airlines

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Speaker 1: flight from Philadelphia Syracuse last week after a seat mate

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Speaker 1: on the flight grew suspicious about the code he was

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Speaker 1: scribbling into a notebook that looked to her like foreign lettering.

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Speaker 1: Washington Post reports, and Italian economists from the University of Pennsylvania,

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Speaker 1: Guido Menzio, was working on some differential equations for a

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Speaker 1: model on menu costs and price dispersion. Security personnel determined

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Speaker 1: Menzio was not a credible threat. That's this morning's Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: and j I. T. Stanard. Yeah, and it was also

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Speaker 1: true that he looked for it. He's Italian. Oh so

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Speaker 1: guess what you half the world has gotten very very strange,

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Speaker 1: Bob Mood. Thank you very much. All right. It is

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Speaker 1: the argument of the moment, do you fight the FED

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Speaker 1: or not? The bond market seems to think FED is

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Speaker 1: not credible when FED officials say they are in line

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Speaker 1: to raise rates in June if the economy continues on

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Speaker 1: its current path. Ian Shepherdson is the founder of Chief

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Speaker 1: Economist and Pantheon macro Economics and I and it's kind

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Speaker 1: of fascinating to me because the old rule was don't

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Speaker 1: fight the FED. But now the folks on trading desks

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Speaker 1: seem to be saying, uh, the will fight the bond

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Speaker 1: market if FED doesn't know what it's talking about. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I've got some sympathy with both of them. Actually. Part

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Speaker 1: of the problem here, of course, is at the FED

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Speaker 1: is pretty split itself. You know, we have some fairly

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Speaker 1: well known consistent hawks, and we've got some fairly well

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Speaker 1: known and consistent doves. And then we got the waivers

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Speaker 1: in the middle, who got a lot of media at tension,

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Speaker 1: and some of whom really like to talk to the

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Speaker 1: media a lot. So we're getting an awful lot of

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Speaker 1: what appeared to be conflicting signals coming out of the

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Speaker 1: FED all at the same time, and so the market says, Okay,

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Speaker 1: we're just gonna choose not to listen to this. We're

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Speaker 1: gonna listen to the short term data, which so far

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Speaker 1: this year have been pretty weak U and decide that

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Speaker 1: it's not going to do anything. And until there's a

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Speaker 1: real sea change in that data, which I think is

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Speaker 1: coming but hasn't happened yet, then I think we get

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Speaker 1: you know, there's continued noise from the fad is effectively

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Speaker 1: being ignored by markets who just choose to go their

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Speaker 1: own way. Well, what's your view, Which camp would you

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Speaker 1: fall into? Well? I think I probably put myself in

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Speaker 1: the consistent or hawk is camp at the moment because

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Speaker 1: I don't believe the economy slowed as much as the

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Speaker 1: VP data showed in the first quarter. I think the

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Speaker 1: data are very flawed. We've got a very persistent season

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Speaker 1: adjustin problem tends to depress the first quarter, and then

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Speaker 1: we've got a much better Q two and we're going

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Speaker 1: to get that this year again. I think the labor

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Speaker 1: data really are telling much more of the truth and

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Speaker 1: what's going on there is that the peril numbers are

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Speaker 1: still pretty strong. I know Friday's number wasn't great, but

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Speaker 1: it wasn't bad either, And the wage numbers are accelerating now.

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Speaker 1: Two and a half percent wage growth is not exciting,

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Speaker 1: but when there's very little productivity growth as we've had

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Speaker 1: for the last few years, actually two and a half

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Speaker 1: percent wage growth is beginning to emerge a something of

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Speaker 1: a threat to the Fed's inflation target. So I think

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Speaker 1: that they should be thinking about moving in June. I

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Speaker 1: don't think they will, but I think they're going to

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Speaker 1: get a bit further behind every meeting they choose to pass. Well,

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Speaker 1: one of the things that pretty much all of them

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Speaker 1: have said is we could move in June. It's a

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Speaker 1: live meeting, but we may be deterred by the possibility

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Speaker 1: of the Brexit vote. If the polls suggest it's a

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Speaker 1: close vote, we may want to wait. Do you see that.

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Speaker 1: I think they're right to do that, actually, if the

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Speaker 1: polls are very close as the referendum approaches, because unfortunately,

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Speaker 1: a Brexit vote has the potential to to blow up

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Speaker 1: the whole of ear of political structures, effectively overnight. Um,

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Speaker 1: And that's an enormous risk. And it's eight days after

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Speaker 1: the June meeting. So well, I just said that on

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Speaker 1: economic grounds, I think the Fed should be hiking and

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Speaker 1: should have hiked further already. I think probably if I

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Speaker 1: win their shoes, I probably take a pass in June,

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Speaker 1: unless the polls are clearly showing that the UK will

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Speaker 1: vote to remain, because the unknowns here are just enormous

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Speaker 1: and the risk of a gigantic market reaction just cannot

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Speaker 1: be ruled out. And so you know, given that the

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Speaker 1: wage numbers are two and a half and not three

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Speaker 1: and a half or four, probably waiting a couple of

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Speaker 1: months afterwards it would be a safer option. The in

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Speaker 1: Shepherdson is with us from Pantheon macro Economics. Will continue

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Speaker 1: our conversation with him and talk more about what's going

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Speaker 1: on in the US and also Europe and get maybe

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Speaker 1: his views on Premier League. Um. You know, you sort

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Speaker 1: of have to ask everybody who's British these days what

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Speaker 1: they think. It's It's obligatory, isn't it. Right now we're

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Speaker 1: looking at a bond market. As I said, it isn't

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Speaker 1: really in tune with the Fed one point seven six

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Speaker 1: percent is your tenure note yield that's down a basis point,

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Speaker 1: five year one point to one, down two basis points,

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Speaker 1: and the two year is at seventy two basis points.

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Speaker 1: That's also a basis point lower. The curve has moved

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Speaker 1: lower after the job's report a hundred and sixty thousand jobs,

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Speaker 1: as the market seems to ignore the idea that we

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Speaker 1: might be seeing some wage inflation. The interesting thing, though,

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Speaker 1: is the folks who trade currencies feel the opposite. The

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Speaker 1: dollar index is higher by two tenths of a percent today,

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Speaker 1: and futures and the equity markets are higher, with SMP

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Speaker 1: futures up six points three tenths of a percent and

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Speaker 1: DOWN futures up forty seven. That's a three tents game

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Speaker 1: as well. This is Bloomberk surveillance. You're listening to Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 1: Bloomberks Avalance has brought you by Commonwealth Financial Network. When

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Speaker 1: it's time to change the conversation, talk with a broker dealer.

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Speaker 1: Are I a that's ready to listen? Call eight six

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Speaker 1: six four six two three six three eight or visit

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Speaker 1: Commonwealth dot com to learn mob Global Business News twenty

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Speaker 1: four hours a day at Bloomberg dot com, the radio

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Speaker 1: plus mobile LAP and on your radio. This is a

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Speaker 1: resolved faster with the American Arbitration Association, the global leader

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Speaker 1: in alternative dispute resolution for over eighty five years. Learn

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Speaker 1: more at a d r dot org tribute and publishing board.

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Speaker 1: Adopting a limited duration shareholder rights plan to work and

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Speaker 1: that's unsolicited eight hundred fifteen million dollar offer. Tyson Foods,

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Speaker 1: the largest US meat producer, raising its full year profit

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Speaker 1: forecast after a decline in the cost of feed and

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Speaker 1: animals boosted margins. It's up four point one per sent

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Speaker 1: an early trading lending club is down twenty eight percent.

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Speaker 1: Founder and chief executive Renauld Laplanche resigned after an internal

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Speaker 1: review of loan sales to a single investor, and President

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Speaker 1: Scott Sanborn was named acting CEO. US dot index futures

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Speaker 1: are higher. Snb emity futures up five points, now, eveny

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Speaker 1: futures up forty one, NAZ documity futures up twelve the

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Speaker 1: decks in Germany's at one point nine percent ten year

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Speaker 1: treasury of three thirty seconds, he yield one point seven

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Speaker 1: six percent yield on the two year point seven two

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Speaker 1: percent Nimex screwt oil of nine ten percent or forty

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Speaker 1: cents to forty five oh six of Airol Comax goal

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Speaker 1: down one point four percent or eighteen dollars thirty cents

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Speaker 1: at twelve seventy five seventy announced the euro at other

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Speaker 1: thirteen eighty three the end one oh eight point to seven.

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Speaker 1: That's a Bloomberg business flash, Tom, and my very good Karen,

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Speaker 1: thank you so much. Ian Shepherdson with us some pantheon.

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Speaker 1: It's wonderful to have him on because when he was

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Speaker 1: a child, if he didn't do his micro economics, his

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Speaker 1: parents would say, Ian, if you don't do your micro

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Speaker 1: you're going to the Castle keep or the black Gate.

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Speaker 1: We will chain you to the Black Gate of Newcastle

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Speaker 1: two hundred seventy six miles dead north of London, two

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Speaker 1: hundred seventy six months closer to Scotland than London. I

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Speaker 1: would suggest, Ian, it's wonderful to talk to you about Brexit.

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Speaker 1: How does brexit play two hundred and seventy six miles

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Speaker 1: away from the elites in London. Well, where you gotta

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Speaker 1: remember about the northeast of England is that it's the

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Speaker 1: only part of Britain that runs a trade surplus, and

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Speaker 1: the big reason why it runs a trade surplus is

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Speaker 1: that there is an enormous Nissan motor manufacturing plant located

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Speaker 1: just in the middle of our region, near the town

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Speaker 1: of Sundland and um as a result, where kind of

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Speaker 1: fit keen in this region staying in the EU because

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Speaker 1: that's where most of those vehicles go. UM and looking

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Speaker 1: from outside, from outside London, things are very different EU

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Speaker 1: and Austrial policy. The access of the Single market has

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Speaker 1: been usually important for the north pilingment. So I think

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Speaker 1: we'll be voting to stay in color away from the

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Speaker 1: media simplicity, and we're guilty of that in the United

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Speaker 1: States with Mr Sanders and Mr Trump, the impact of

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Speaker 1: elites in the many other regions and characters of the

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Speaker 1: United Kingdom. I get the idea the elites are at

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Speaker 1: ten Downing Street in seventeen other fancy restaurants in West London.

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Speaker 1: Are the elites dominant in the rest of the United Kingdom. No,

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Speaker 1: it's very different what tends to happen in in the

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Speaker 1: far fling bits of the country is that it's dominated

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Speaker 1: by local politics rather than the national scenes. So in

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Speaker 1: the Northeast has always been a stronghold of the Labor Party,

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Speaker 1: still is after the elections last week, UM and the

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Speaker 1: local politicians in the Northeast are very keen on remaining

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Speaker 1: in the EU. But we also have lots of our

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Speaker 1: own problems because we're you know, the regions are constantly

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Speaker 1: at log aheads with London, which sucks in all the

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Speaker 1: resources and all the talent and distorts the overall picture

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Speaker 1: of the economy. So you know, it's it's very similar

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Speaker 1: supposed to the impact that the major cities have in

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Speaker 1: the US. How New York State upstate is very different

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Speaker 1: to New York City. Well, it's kind of the same

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Speaker 1: between the north and south of England. We were talking

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Speaker 1: to just before the break about the FED maybe wanting

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Speaker 1: to be on hold to measure the impact of the

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Speaker 1: Brexit vote. What would in your view be the results

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Speaker 1: should the British vote to leave, Well, how would it

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Speaker 1: affect the rest of the world. Yeah, well, it would

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Speaker 1: depend on a number of factors, which at the moment

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Speaker 1: are completely unknowable that the first is what happens in

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Speaker 1: the UK after a vote, because the chances are that

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Speaker 1: only the south East of England will will vote to leave,

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Speaker 1: Scotland will vote to stay in, Northern Ireland will vote

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Speaker 1: to stay in, the North of England will the West

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Speaker 1: of England will Wales will vote to stay in. So

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Speaker 1: we have one part of the country dictating policy to

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Speaker 1: everywhere else, which is going to trigger I think another

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Speaker 1: referendent to Scotland. Um Scotland if it then becomes independent,

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Speaker 1: and I think it would would then want to be

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Speaker 1: in the EU. But that raises alsos of problems for

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Speaker 1: other countries in the EU which have their own secessionist areas,

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Speaker 1: like Spain, with with Catalonia, possibly Italy as well. So

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Speaker 1: it causes enormous problems for the rest of the EU,

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Speaker 1: which already is suffered a huge resurgence of the right

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Speaker 1: wing nationalists kind of the European trumpions if you like,

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Speaker 1: and and European politics are very fractioned, very febrile at

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Speaker 1: the moment, and the UK vote to leave is going

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Speaker 1: to make all of those problems much much worse, both

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Speaker 1: immediately and and in the medium term. And I think

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Speaker 1: the reason why this this frightens the US so much,

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Speaker 1: and they clearly frightened President Obama enough to make a

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Speaker 1: trip to London to beg us all to vote to

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Speaker 1: stay in is the threat that this potentially poses to

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Speaker 1: NATO and the other European security structures. And I think

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Speaker 1: one of the questions that British people need to ask

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Speaker 1: themselves when they decide how to vote is what does

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Speaker 1: Vladimir Putin want? I'll tell you what he wants. He

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Speaker 1: wants us to leave. Now, that's probably the best single

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Speaker 1: reason I can think of to vote to stay because

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Speaker 1: he knows perfectly well that the breakup of the eu

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Speaker 1: UM is an existential threat to NATO as well, and

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Speaker 1: that's a terrifying prospect. And I think it's not widely

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Speaker 1: appreciated here that it's not just about economics when we

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Speaker 1: choose how to vote, what's we are told over and

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Speaker 1: over again. We saw this with Scotland that the polls

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Speaker 1: are not not very accurate. What what's the economic reason

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Speaker 1: for leaving? And how is that selling? Well? It really

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Speaker 1: isn't a very strong case. The case for lieving the

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Speaker 1: idea is that we will negotiate wonderful trade deals with

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Speaker 1: everybody else, unfettered by the rules that we have to

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Speaker 1: stick to as part of the EU, that everyone else

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Speaker 1: will be the path to our door and they'll do

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Speaker 1: great deals with us. That's essentially it that that's the

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Speaker 1: economic case for leaving only UM it doesn't really make sense. Uh.

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Speaker 1: You know, the the European Union UM as a whole

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Speaker 1: runs a surplus of the UK, but seven European countries

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Speaker 1: run deficits, and I don't think they're going to be

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Speaker 1: very keen to do a deal with US, which have

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Speaker 1: to be unanimous. The US. Well, Obama said a couple

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Speaker 1: of weeks ago that we'd be at the back of

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Speaker 1: the line to trade deals, and of course you would

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Speaker 1: because they have to pass Congress, which isn't very trendy

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Speaker 1: towards trade deals right now. So I think the case

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Speaker 1: for leaving is a lot of nationalist flag waving and

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Speaker 1: not much economic sense. And that is separate from our economics.

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Speaker 1: If we have quote unquote nationalist flag waving, whether it's

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Speaker 1: in the United Kingdom of the United States, I'm going

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Speaker 1: to suggest, Mr Shepherdson, it's the it's the outcome of

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Speaker 1: tep phenomenal GDP teper economic growth and prospects. What is

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Speaker 1: the level of economic growth that will get America back

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Speaker 1: on an even keel. Well, we've got to get out

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Speaker 1: of this two and into three. And what we have

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Speaker 1: to do, um, how do we get that? Well, we

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Speaker 1: need to see a recovery in capital spending, which would

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Speaker 1: support then stronger income growth, faster productivity growth, and rising

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Speaker 1: having standards. And that's really been missing. It's been particularly

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Speaker 1: acutely missing over the last year or so because we've

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Speaker 1: seen a gigantic collapse in capital spending in the oil business.

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Speaker 1: Outside the old business, it's holding up o, but we

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Speaker 1: need to do better than okay. And one of the

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Speaker 1: great debates that we're having now among economists is where

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Speaker 1: the higher interest rates might actually make that situation better

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Speaker 1: rather than worse. Because, of course, the standard textbook would

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Speaker 1: tell you if you raise rates, you're going to do

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Speaker 1: press capital spending. But what if by raising rates we

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Speaker 1: put a more sensible price on capital. Money is no

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Speaker 1: longer free, so businesses have to think harder about how

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Speaker 1: they allocate it. They have to stop doing crazy things

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Speaker 1: like digging oil wells which don't produce anything, which we

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Speaker 1: did for several years, they have to make much more

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Speaker 1: hard nose decisions, and maybe we get better decisions. We

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Speaker 1: we we we changed the environment by putting a price

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Speaker 1: on capital, by putting interest rates at something like a

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Speaker 1: normal sort of level, and take away one of these

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Speaker 1: enormous distortions. The problem is that nobody knows if this

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Speaker 1: is true or not. It might be, but the only

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Speaker 1: way you find out is by actually doing it. Because

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Speaker 1: the other strand of that argument is that by raising

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Speaker 1: rates as that would be signaling to everybody, businesses, individuals,

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Speaker 1: everybody that the economy is in better shape and normalizing,

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Speaker 1: and maybe that spurs spending as well, because now what

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Speaker 1: we get is a constant wall of Fed officials saying

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Speaker 1: things are terrible. We've got to be cautious, too risky,

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Speaker 1: can't raise rates. Well, you know, if you're hearing that

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Speaker 1: all the time from the Central Bank, how do you respond, Well,

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Speaker 1: you don't take risk, you don't spend money, you don't invest,

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Speaker 1: and that's what's happening. What do you see with the

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Speaker 1: American consumer? Mean you talk about don't spend money? Mike,

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Speaker 1: did you see any eight percent off signs on the

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Speaker 1: way to work this morning? I'm seeing many fifty percent off.

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Speaker 1: I mean, what's the state of the consumer if I'm

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Speaker 1: seeing everywhere well overall, it's okay. I mean, consumer sentiment

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Speaker 1: is hanging in there. What's happened over the last year

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Speaker 1: or so is that people have chosen so far not

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Speaker 1: to spend all the wind for from falling gas prices,

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Speaker 1: spend some of it, but not all of it. Um

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Speaker 1: that's not hugely unusual. When you get such a gigantic

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Speaker 1: shift in energy prices, it does take a while for

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Speaker 1: people to realize that actually, it's probably going to be

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Speaker 1: sustained for some time, and so it's safe to spend it.

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Speaker 1: And I think we're seeing that now because we're seeing

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Speaker 1: things like rising mortgage applications, which is a sign that

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Speaker 1: people are willing to make financial commitments. Maybe they're using

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Speaker 1: some of that cash flow to increase the size of

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Speaker 1: their mortgage, to put an addition on now something like that.

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Speaker 1: Those are the sort of decisions that you make. Overnight

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Speaker 1: gas prices fall for a month, you don't make that decision.

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Speaker 1: But if they fall for eighteen months, it's a different story.

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Speaker 1: So I wonder whether over the next year or so

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Speaker 1: we might see that saving right come back down again.

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Speaker 1: It's gone up clearly, but if it comes back down again,

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Speaker 1: we'll see stronger consumption and if we add into that

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Speaker 1: mixed stronger capex because finally the oil sector capital spending

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Speaker 1: them as their hitting bottom. Now they can't go any

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Speaker 1: lower um, so we're gonna lose that drag. We gained

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Speaker 1: something from the consumer and also we gained something from

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Speaker 1: the weaker dollar, which is already listing export orders. We

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Speaker 1: can see that in the surveys. Put it all together,

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Speaker 1: maybe that gets us nearer to three than two, and

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Speaker 1: that really does transform what's happening to living standards if

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Speaker 1: we can sustain that. Ian Shefferdson, thank you so much,

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Speaker 1: an American on UK economics and on his Newcastle he

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Speaker 1: is with Pantheon. Newcastle and Sunderland are the two teams

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Speaker 1: in his area. And they didn't have a very good

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Speaker 1: season in the league. They're going to be playing in

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Speaker 1: the Champions League. Oh they get is that relegated? That's

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Speaker 1: called do fed governors or presidents get relegated? Look at

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Speaker 1: the speech count Dudley, Mester Rosen Green, George Williams. Which

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Speaker 1: one matters, Michael McKee, Dudley obviously the others, a lot

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Speaker 1: of them leaning towards a June move from New York.

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg surveillance