WEBVTT - Cautionary Questions with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova 0:00:15.564 --> 0:00:16.044 Pushkin. 0:00:24.364 --> 0:00:27.244 Hey everybody, Nate here, I'm dropping into your feed on 0:00:27.284 --> 0:00:30.004 a Tuesday because Marie and I were recently guests on 0:00:30.084 --> 0:00:34.524 Cautionary Tales. Normally, on that show, economist Tim Harford tells 0:00:34.564 --> 0:00:37.924 us stories of real world mistakes, things like the Birmingham 0:00:38.004 --> 0:00:40.964 Lab League and the Tenrife air disaster, and what lessons 0:00:41.004 --> 0:00:43.444 we can learn from them. When Marie and I appeared, 0:00:43.484 --> 0:00:46.724 Tim had us answer questions from Cautionary Tales and Risky 0:00:46.804 --> 0:00:50.444 Business listeners. They're smart, they're fun, and we're excited to 0:00:50.484 --> 0:00:53.404 be sharing the full episode with you today. Hope you 0:00:53.604 --> 0:00:55.444 enjoy and be sure to check out the rist of 0:00:55.484 --> 0:00:57.484 Cautionary Tales wherever you're listening to this. 0:01:03.204 --> 0:01:07.004 Hello, and welcome to another episode of Cautionary Questions. I 0:01:07.084 --> 0:01:10.564 team up with clever people to answer you clever questions, 0:01:10.844 --> 0:01:14.164 and this time I'm joined by Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova. 0:01:14.524 --> 0:01:17.764 They are the hosts of the Risky Business podcast and 0:01:18.044 --> 0:01:21.684 they are here to answer questions from both sets of listeners. 0:01:22.164 --> 0:01:24.604 Nate is a political analyst. He's the author of On 0:01:24.724 --> 0:01:28.004 the Edge, and Maria is the best selling author of 0:01:28.084 --> 0:01:31.524 the Biggest Bluff. How I Learned to Pay attention master 0:01:31.604 --> 0:01:36.004 myself and win both fantastic books. Both Nate and Maria 0:01:36.124 --> 0:01:40.444 are also journalists, and they are both high stakes poker players. 0:01:40.724 --> 0:01:43.404 I'm a journalist too and an undercover economist, and I'm 0:01:43.404 --> 0:01:45.364 not much of a poker player. But between us, we 0:01:45.364 --> 0:01:47.884 should have some good answers for all of the smart 0:01:47.964 --> 0:01:51.004 questions that you've been sending in. We will be tackling 0:01:51.044 --> 0:01:55.244 smartphones in schools, tariffs, and how to use game theory 0:01:55.444 --> 0:01:59.564 to win at sports. Nate, Maria, welcome to Cautionary Tales. 0:01:59.964 --> 0:02:01.324 Thank you, Tom, Thanks so much. 0:02:01.364 --> 0:02:01.804 Tom. 0:02:02.124 --> 0:02:05.204 Well, should it be cautionary business or risky tales, risky 0:02:05.324 --> 0:02:09.804 risky cars, risky cassion. That's good. You've been po casting 0:02:09.844 --> 0:02:10.684 for how long? 0:02:11.004 --> 0:02:11.604 About a year? 0:02:11.964 --> 0:02:14.084 About a year? Yeah, we're coming up on the World 0:02:14.164 --> 0:02:18.124 Series of Poker begins in every May, and so yeah, 0:02:18.164 --> 0:02:20.204 we launched it just about a year ago. When we're 0:02:20.244 --> 0:02:23.724 coming up in our second World Series season, excellent, When 0:02:23.804 --> 0:02:24.244 Nate and I. 0:02:24.204 --> 0:02:26.644 Are both at the final table of the main event, 0:02:26.684 --> 0:02:31.044 that'll be really great for our Risky Business podcast audience growth. 0:02:31.244 --> 0:02:33.644 Would you be podcasting from the World Series if you're 0:02:33.644 --> 0:02:34.524 on the final table? 0:02:34.724 --> 0:02:38.364 Not at the final table? Since there are no phones allowed, but. 0:02:38.604 --> 0:02:39.324 We'll find a way. 0:02:39.404 --> 0:02:41.124 I mean, we do have these long days right where 0:02:41.124 --> 0:02:44.164 we both have real jobs and then maybe you'll do 0:02:44.244 --> 0:02:46.684 several hours of real work quote unquote, and then play 0:02:46.684 --> 0:02:49.644 poker for twelve hours and then it's fine your two 0:02:49.684 --> 0:02:53.404 am Mexican food hangout or something. But they are long days. 0:02:53.444 --> 0:02:55.324 We do not get vacation when we're in Vegas. 0:02:55.364 --> 0:02:58.964 Basically we do not. Right enough poker chat, let us 0:02:59.044 --> 0:03:03.884 get into the virtual postbag. After we listened to the 0:03:03.884 --> 0:03:32.244 theme music for Cautionary Tales. I am here with Nate 0:03:32.324 --> 0:03:35.964 Silver and Maria Konikova, and here is a good question 0:03:36.044 --> 0:03:41.564 to start with from listener Alex. Alex asks, have any 0:03:41.604 --> 0:03:47.404 personal experiences or academic theories really shaped your decision making. 0:03:48.124 --> 0:03:50.324 Let me put this one to Nate first, and I'd 0:03:50.364 --> 0:03:51.604 love to hear what both of you think. 0:03:52.004 --> 0:03:55.564 I would say, my experience with risk taking and decision 0:03:55.604 --> 0:03:58.764 making is very hands on for the most part. Right 0:03:58.804 --> 0:04:02.004 when I was a kid, we would play Fantasy Baseball 0:04:02.124 --> 0:04:05.164 and have little NFL betting pools and things like that. Obviously, 0:04:05.204 --> 0:04:08.004 poker there's good instructional material, but you know, most people 0:04:08.044 --> 0:04:10.804 are ultimately kind of largely self taught, you know, in 0:04:10.844 --> 0:04:13.524 my book On the Edge. Then game theory plays a 0:04:13.564 --> 0:04:15.964 really large role, and game theory plays a very large 0:04:16.004 --> 0:04:18.644 role in poker. There are not computer programs called solvers 0:04:18.684 --> 0:04:22.084 that literally have solved the Nash equilibrium for poker. If 0:04:22.124 --> 0:04:24.804 you've seen a beautiful mind. A lot of things in 0:04:24.844 --> 0:04:27.804 life is like what's the game theory equilibrium of, Like 0:04:27.844 --> 0:04:30.764 what traffic patterns look like in New York, or how 0:04:30.804 --> 0:04:33.324 often you should eat one type of cuisine versus another, 0:04:33.404 --> 0:04:35.884 or any type of competitive situation where there are lots 0:04:35.924 --> 0:04:38.524 of optionality. I'd say game theory is kind of the 0:04:38.564 --> 0:04:40.124 most important variable there. 0:04:41.044 --> 0:04:43.284 And game theory, we should say, is really the use 0:04:43.324 --> 0:04:48.484 of mathematical equations to model strategic into actions. So a 0:04:48.644 --> 0:04:52.284 very simple example of game theory is the game of 0:04:52.404 --> 0:04:56.604 rock paper scissors. Now, if I play rock, you're going 0:04:56.684 --> 0:04:58.804 to play paper and beat me. If I play paper, 0:04:59.044 --> 0:05:01.164 you're going to play scissors and beat me. And so 0:05:01.284 --> 0:05:04.044 game theory says, oh, you have to randomize, you have 0:05:04.084 --> 0:05:07.284 to have a one third chance of playing each strategy. 0:05:07.364 --> 0:05:09.804 I mean, that's kind of obvious. Game theory can be 0:05:09.884 --> 0:05:14.484 used to model much more complex situations, including famously, because 0:05:14.524 --> 0:05:17.764 it inspired one of the creators of game theory poker. 0:05:18.164 --> 0:05:21.444 Yeah, I would second Nate on game theory. It was 0:05:21.644 --> 0:05:25.124 one of the pinnacles of my academic work. And I'd 0:05:25.124 --> 0:05:29.484 also say the psychological theories of Danny Conneman have been 0:05:29.644 --> 0:05:32.844 hugely influential in how I think about decision making. He 0:05:33.044 --> 0:05:37.844 was an absolutely brilliant man who really unearthed a lot 0:05:37.884 --> 0:05:42.284 of the ways that our brains misprocess. I don't think 0:05:42.324 --> 0:05:43.764 that's a word, but I'm going to make it one 0:05:44.084 --> 0:05:49.684 misprocess information and the biases and heuristics that we're up against. 0:05:49.764 --> 0:05:53.084 And it's incredibly powerful because even if you know that 0:05:53.124 --> 0:05:56.324 those biases and heuristics exist in theory, in practice, you 0:05:56.324 --> 0:05:59.164 still exhibit them. Right, You have the game theory kind 0:05:59.164 --> 0:06:02.964 of that mathematical side, and then the psychological side of 0:06:03.244 --> 0:06:06.764 Cooman and Poker, in my mind, is the life experience 0:06:06.844 --> 0:06:09.964 that has cemented these more than anything else else in 0:06:10.004 --> 0:06:13.804 my brain and has made me internalize how this actually 0:06:13.884 --> 0:06:17.564 works in reality and how you can try to decide 0:06:17.604 --> 0:06:20.084 optimally and then take that from the poker table to 0:06:20.244 --> 0:06:23.804 real life, because poker's an environment where you can really 0:06:23.844 --> 0:06:27.764 sample thousands and thousands and thousands of decisions, sample correctly. 0:06:27.804 --> 0:06:30.644 And as you know, Tim, that's incredibly important when it 0:06:30.684 --> 0:06:32.564 comes to learning and trying to get a sense of 0:06:32.564 --> 0:06:35.964 for probabilities and in real life, not the poker table, 0:06:36.204 --> 0:06:38.804 we never sample correctly right. So that's where a lot 0:06:38.844 --> 0:06:40.964 of these biases come from. So I think poker is 0:06:41.004 --> 0:06:44.164 a very powerful teaching tool to help cement these theories 0:06:44.204 --> 0:06:45.164 into practice. 0:06:45.924 --> 0:06:49.444 Okay, I've got a great question from Drew loyal listeners 0:06:49.444 --> 0:06:51.644 to caution me tales. Now, I'm a big fan of 0:06:52.204 --> 0:06:55.924 board games, and Drew wants to know Maria and Nate 0:06:56.244 --> 0:06:58.644 do you play board games. If you play board games, 0:06:58.684 --> 0:07:01.524 do you bring a poker lens to the table or 0:07:01.604 --> 0:07:02.844 is it a different vibe? 0:07:03.164 --> 0:07:08.204 So I hate board cames. I do not play board games. 0:07:08.444 --> 0:07:11.244 My sisters a little over six years older than I am, 0:07:11.364 --> 0:07:14.484 and she always loved board games. They bored me. Haha. 0:07:14.524 --> 0:07:18.564 They're just not interesting. And you know when someone brings out, 0:07:18.604 --> 0:07:21.924 you know, sellers of Katan or anything like that, I'm like, 0:07:21.964 --> 0:07:24.324 oh God, no, no, no, no, please to get to 0:07:24.404 --> 0:07:27.564 ride as a favorite in my family and I just 0:07:27.644 --> 0:07:30.244 want to die, you know, for me, if there's game night, 0:07:30.404 --> 0:07:33.204 please let it be poker. Otherwise, please don't make me 0:07:33.244 --> 0:07:35.564 play and let me read my book on the side 0:07:35.684 --> 0:07:37.324 and cheer you on while you play. 0:07:37.724 --> 0:07:42.084 Yeah. I mean, look, some of the games get quite advanced, 0:07:42.404 --> 0:07:44.964 and so it's like, where do you go from a 0:07:45.004 --> 0:07:47.724 game that takes ten hours to learn something that's kind 0:07:47.724 --> 0:07:50.684 of a broken, overly simple game, Right, But like, yeah, 0:07:50.844 --> 0:07:53.284 I like games because I'm very competitive. 0:07:53.364 --> 0:07:53.524 Right. 0:07:53.604 --> 0:07:55.324 If I'm playing, it's like, oh, people, we're like, don't 0:07:55.324 --> 0:07:58.724 have that background in games or poker. Then I'm just 0:07:58.724 --> 0:08:01.164 gonna be honest. I tend to I tend to figure 0:08:01.164 --> 0:08:04.324 out the strategy pretty quick. And when you. 0:08:04.404 --> 0:08:07.964 Crush them, you crush their souls and their dreams, and 0:08:08.044 --> 0:08:10.724 they wish they'd never asked to play. Day to your 0:08:10.764 --> 0:08:13.484 point about the complexity, there's a New Yorker cartoon that 0:08:13.524 --> 0:08:17.164 I absolutely love and it's a group of people sitting 0:08:17.164 --> 0:08:19.724 around a table and one of them is reading a 0:08:19.724 --> 0:08:22.804 game instruction manual and the rest of them are all skeletons. 0:08:23.004 --> 0:08:24.924 He says, and so those are the rules? Shall we 0:08:24.964 --> 0:08:25.844 start playing? 0:08:26.884 --> 0:08:31.524 I love it. I had the privilege of interviewing Klaus Toyber, 0:08:32.164 --> 0:08:35.604 the creator of Settlers of Katan, and he said something 0:08:35.604 --> 0:08:38.724 that really stuck with me, which I suspect will resonate 0:08:38.764 --> 0:08:41.444 with you poker players. He said, you can know somebody 0:08:41.884 --> 0:08:45.964 their whole lives and play a game with them and 0:08:46.004 --> 0:08:49.604 you will see something that you've never seen that's wonderful. 0:08:49.644 --> 0:08:52.324 And I actually that's how I feel about poker. Your 0:08:52.444 --> 0:08:54.644 character comes out. And by the way, I do have 0:08:54.684 --> 0:08:57.204 a very strong interest in games for my next book 0:08:57.204 --> 0:08:59.964 when it comes to cheating, so I'm interested in, like, 0:09:00.404 --> 0:09:03.284 what kind of a person you know cheats a monopoly 0:09:03.444 --> 0:09:04.084 at home. 0:09:03.884 --> 0:09:05.324 Game night, people who want to win. 0:09:05.724 --> 0:09:09.004 It's just totally like mind boggling to me that you 0:09:09.044 --> 0:09:11.524 would do that. But but there you have it. 0:09:11.644 --> 0:09:15.924 Yeah, my partner is also very competitive, but his main 0:09:16.004 --> 0:09:20.124 objective is making sure that I don't win, right, He 0:09:20.204 --> 0:09:25.604 will go out, You'll go out of his way to 0:09:25.724 --> 0:09:29.444 lose himself if it's a murder suicide mission basically, which 0:09:29.564 --> 0:09:30.884 changes the strategy quite a bit. 0:09:31.204 --> 0:09:33.244 I feel. See that's amazing. 0:09:33.764 --> 0:09:35.844 So here's one for you, Tim. This question is from 0:09:36.564 --> 0:09:39.484 Carrie k E r ri E. I know Irish or something, Carrie, 0:09:39.524 --> 0:09:42.164 but anyway, Hi Tim and team. I worry that a 0:09:42.164 --> 0:09:44.764 big problem with the productivity gap in the UK is 0:09:44.804 --> 0:09:48.244 a lack of high quality data and data driven decision making. 0:09:48.764 --> 0:09:50.844 I see a lot of investment in data that is 0:09:50.884 --> 0:09:53.884 overseen by technical experts in a given domain, but very 0:09:53.924 --> 0:09:58.004 little consultation of data scientists. Company and organizational boards also 0:09:58.004 --> 0:10:00.564 seem to lack the sort of expertise which is often 0:10:00.644 --> 0:10:04.044 rolled into a catch all it function. I work in 0:10:04.044 --> 0:10:06.924 the public sector, and so I have framed my question accordingly. 0:10:07.364 --> 0:10:10.004 Should we have a government department devoted to or is 0:10:10.044 --> 0:10:14.044 it all a bit nineteen eighty four? Best wishes, Kirie. 0:10:14.724 --> 0:10:16.964 Well, I love the question, and we do kind of 0:10:16.964 --> 0:10:19.764 have a government department devoted to data. It's called the 0:10:19.804 --> 0:10:23.284 Office for National Statistics, but it's focused on very old 0:10:23.324 --> 0:10:27.564 school statistics rather than modern data science, and old school 0:10:27.604 --> 0:10:31.524 statistics tends to focus on smaller data sets, very well behaved, 0:10:32.004 --> 0:10:34.724 well formatted data sets. For example, you might go out 0:10:34.724 --> 0:10:37.804 and do a survey rather than just say, hey, well, 0:10:37.804 --> 0:10:40.084 we're going to just draw administrative data, or we're going 0:10:40.124 --> 0:10:42.724 to look at data that's coming out of people's smartphones, 0:10:43.084 --> 0:10:45.004 which you know, there's a lot more information in there, 0:10:45.004 --> 0:10:47.804 but it's a lot messier, to be honest. What really 0:10:47.884 --> 0:10:53.724 concerns me at the moment is that data is systematically 0:10:53.844 --> 0:10:57.684 underrated by governments. I think they don't realize how powerful 0:10:57.724 --> 0:11:00.364 it can be, that they don't realize how dangerous it 0:11:00.404 --> 0:11:04.484 can be, and it tends to be given a low 0:11:04.604 --> 0:11:08.924 political priority or misused. So at the moment in the US, 0:11:08.964 --> 0:11:11.124 for example, we've got this sort of sudden disappearance of 0:11:11.164 --> 0:11:14.644 all these government websites. It's unclear how much data has 0:11:14.684 --> 0:11:17.844 permanently disappeared, or is it just that it's temporarily gone down. 0:11:18.004 --> 0:11:21.684 Is somebody archiving it? Will the archives work or not? 0:11:21.924 --> 0:11:24.804 Archives don't always work. Are we going to have interrupted 0:11:25.004 --> 0:11:28.164 data sets? It's very unclear what's gone and what hasn't. 0:11:28.724 --> 0:11:32.004 So that's a particularly extreme example, but generally, I'm working 0:11:32.004 --> 0:11:35.564 on a history of data. At the moment. It's so powerful, 0:11:36.004 --> 0:11:40.164 it's so important. It is the foundation of our health systems. 0:11:40.164 --> 0:11:42.924 It's the foundation of many of our economic activities. It's 0:11:42.964 --> 0:11:46.004 the foundation of science. It's also the foundation of some 0:11:46.124 --> 0:11:49.604 terrible abuses of human rights in the past. And yet 0:11:49.724 --> 0:11:52.044 it's kind of boring and it's kind of geeky, and 0:11:52.124 --> 0:11:55.244 so it just gets overlooked, and that's what really worries me. 0:11:55.564 --> 0:11:57.924 Yeah, I mean, it's interesting that you have, you know, 0:11:58.084 --> 0:12:01.524 one partisan faction in the US that seems to think 0:12:01.564 --> 0:12:05.804 that less data is better instead of having better data, right. 0:12:05.844 --> 0:12:08.604 And some types of data you can go back and recollect, 0:12:08.724 --> 0:12:09.844 but something as you can't. 0:12:09.924 --> 0:12:10.044 Right. 0:12:10.044 --> 0:12:13.364 The UK, for example, has a data set of economic 0:12:14.284 --> 0:12:17.444 statistics like GDP that goes back like almost a thousand 0:12:17.524 --> 0:12:20.684 years or something, right, because they were collecting records for 0:12:20.844 --> 0:12:24.244 tax purposes and estate purposes and everything in real time. 0:12:24.364 --> 0:12:27.804 Yeah. Well, we call the doom Doomsday Book eighty six. 0:12:27.844 --> 0:12:30.164 I'm old enough to remember the nine hundredth anniversary of 0:12:30.244 --> 0:12:34.564 the Doomsday Book. There's an interesting little caution retail there. 0:12:34.884 --> 0:12:37.564 So for the nine hundredth anniversary of the Doomsday Book, 0:12:37.564 --> 0:12:40.804 which was in nineteen eighty six, the BBC organized this 0:12:41.644 --> 0:12:44.364 kind of a proto Wikipedia. They said, we're going to 0:12:44.644 --> 0:12:48.724 encourage this project where school kids across the country are 0:12:48.724 --> 0:12:50.964 going to act as citizen journalists. They're going to go around, 0:12:51.004 --> 0:12:53.964 they'll interview people, they'll gather data, they'll write the little essays. 0:12:54.364 --> 0:12:57.324 We've got maps, we'll have photographs, and we'll put it 0:12:57.364 --> 0:13:02.044 all on a laser disc. Remember laser disc. You can 0:13:02.084 --> 0:13:05.124 see the problem, right. And we've got these highly sophisticated, 0:13:05.484 --> 0:13:08.604 expensive computer systems they're going to be accessible in every school. 0:13:08.724 --> 0:13:11.564 And it was called Doomsday nineteen eighty six. I think 0:13:11.924 --> 0:13:14.044 it was super cool. I remember it really well. And 0:13:14.084 --> 0:13:18.124 then by about nineteen ninety eight, it was just impossible 0:13:18.124 --> 0:13:20.804 to even read the laser discs. So this whole project 0:13:20.844 --> 0:13:23.764 just went offline. Meanwhile, by the way, the original Doomsday 0:13:23.764 --> 0:13:27.284 books from ten eighty six still available. 0:13:28.004 --> 0:13:32.724 Paper has a certain appeal and has lasted four centuries 0:13:32.844 --> 0:13:36.644 for a reason. You know, the flip side tim of 0:13:36.684 --> 0:13:38.764 what you were saying about what's happening in the US 0:13:39.124 --> 0:13:42.764 and kind to address the nineteen eighty four element of 0:13:42.804 --> 0:13:45.604 the question is so, you know, yes, a lot of 0:13:45.684 --> 0:13:48.884 data is disappearing, and then data that was never meant 0:13:48.964 --> 0:13:53.924 to be aggregated and linked and personalized is being shared, 0:13:54.044 --> 0:13:57.524 and profiles of people of US citizens and non citizens 0:13:57.564 --> 0:14:01.044 are being created that should have never been created. 0:14:01.124 --> 0:14:01.244 Right. 0:14:01.284 --> 0:14:04.364 There were rules in place to keep those data sets 0:14:04.404 --> 0:14:07.524 separate for a reason, for privacy protections, and now the 0:14:07.564 --> 0:14:12.924 government is trying to roll back those rules and collect 0:14:13.084 --> 0:14:17.204 and de anonymize the data that was shared by people 0:14:17.444 --> 0:14:20.684 with the assumption that that would never happen. That's really bad, right, 0:14:20.804 --> 0:14:23.324 So there's this kind of dystopian thing going on. 0:14:24.004 --> 0:14:26.724 And there's history here. I mean, this has happened before. 0:14:26.764 --> 0:14:28.084 This happened in the nineteen forties. 0:14:28.164 --> 0:14:31.244 It's not good. Nineteen forties was not a good time 0:14:31.284 --> 0:14:33.044 in history if people remember. 0:14:33.604 --> 0:14:35.364 No, I think we can all agree on that one. 0:14:35.564 --> 0:14:37.884 Thank you very much, Nate and Maria. We will be 0:14:37.964 --> 0:14:51.924 answering more of your questions after this shortbreak. We are back. 0:14:52.324 --> 0:14:55.764 I'm here with Nate Silver and Maria Konikova of Risky Business, 0:14:55.844 --> 0:14:58.644 and we have an interesting question from a Risky Business 0:14:58.764 --> 0:15:03.124 listener who asks, one thing that happened during the tariffs 0:15:03.124 --> 0:15:06.524 which didn't get much attention, is the ten year treasury 0:15:06.604 --> 0:15:09.324 rate spiked from four to four and a half percent. 0:15:10.204 --> 0:15:11.764 I should say, by the way I work for the 0:15:11.844 --> 0:15:14.044 Financial Times, we were paying a lot of attention to that, 0:15:14.124 --> 0:15:17.844 but understand that outside geek land it was ignored. That 0:15:18.044 --> 0:15:21.524 basically means, the listener continues, there is less belief that 0:15:21.804 --> 0:15:26.124 US debt is a safe bet. It probably means somebody 0:15:26.404 --> 0:15:30.284 cough China, cough, issued a cell order for a large 0:15:30.404 --> 0:15:33.884 amount of US treasury with the intent to move the 0:15:34.004 --> 0:15:38.204 interest rate as retaliation for tariffs. To cut to the 0:15:38.324 --> 0:15:42.244 chase the listener asks, I would be extremely interested in 0:15:42.324 --> 0:15:46.124 hearing what are your thoughts on the likelihood of the 0:15:46.244 --> 0:15:48.684 United States defaulting? Nate? 0:15:48.764 --> 0:15:49.404 This one's yere. 0:15:50.284 --> 0:15:52.924 I used to know more about credit default swaps and 0:15:53.004 --> 0:15:55.524 things like this. I mean, look, in the US runs 0:15:55.564 --> 0:15:58.204 up very large deficits. Neither party has any interest in 0:15:59.444 --> 0:16:02.324 doing what it would take to cut those deficits potentially. Right, 0:16:02.364 --> 0:16:04.284 we got lucky in kind of the financial crisis in 0:16:04.324 --> 0:16:07.124 COVID era of lower interest rates where you can borrow 0:16:07.244 --> 0:16:09.964 very cheaply. It's no longer true now, In fact, borrow 0:16:10.004 --> 0:16:12.924 he's getting more expensive. And so, you know, I trust 0:16:12.924 --> 0:16:16.084 the market's fairly efficient here. But I guess the US 0:16:16.164 --> 0:16:17.724 is still a bit too big to fail. 0:16:18.844 --> 0:16:21.284 Well, normally, when we say too big to fail, we're 0:16:21.284 --> 0:16:23.924 referring to things that the US is going to bail 0:16:24.004 --> 0:16:27.844 out if necessary. Right, Yeah, the US is too big 0:16:27.884 --> 0:16:29.524 to save. That's your problem. 0:16:29.844 --> 0:16:32.884 You know. The world has profoundly been affected by Trump's 0:16:32.884 --> 0:16:35.244 second term in a way it wasn't in Trump's first term. 0:16:35.444 --> 0:16:37.764 Our neighbors to the north, Canada, had an election that 0:16:37.804 --> 0:16:40.964 was entirely upended. The Liberals wound to back in power, 0:16:40.964 --> 0:16:43.004 even though Trudeau had been very unpopular. 0:16:43.124 --> 0:16:43.284 Right. 0:16:43.564 --> 0:16:45.844 I would argue that the election of the new pope 0:16:46.324 --> 0:16:48.964 was in part a response to Trump and the changing 0:16:49.004 --> 0:16:51.124 geopolitical world, right, and say, Okay, we want to have 0:16:51.124 --> 0:16:53.764 some influence on the United States. Have figure who's not Trump? 0:16:53.804 --> 0:16:56.604 It can balance them out somehow, And so yeah, we're 0:16:56.964 --> 0:17:00.644 way a different world. And I suppose I trust markets 0:17:00.684 --> 0:17:03.484 and investors are intelligent about that. And I'm not sure 0:17:03.524 --> 0:17:06.244 it's it's China so much as the fact that we're 0:17:06.244 --> 0:17:07.284 in a new regime. 0:17:08.004 --> 0:17:10.684 Yeah, I said in the agree, I think China needed 0:17:10.724 --> 0:17:13.564 to do anything to make the US treasury rate spike. 0:17:13.724 --> 0:17:15.764 When the rate spikes, by the way, it means people 0:17:15.804 --> 0:17:18.844 are selling US government debt. When they sell it, the 0:17:18.844 --> 0:17:21.044 price goes down, the interest rates goes up. But yeah, 0:17:21.084 --> 0:17:24.164 plenty of people willing to do that without any coordinated 0:17:24.204 --> 0:17:27.364 action from China. I mean, there is absolutely zero need 0:17:27.684 --> 0:17:30.204 for the US government to default, because the US government 0:17:30.204 --> 0:17:32.684 can always print more dollars. I mean, it could be 0:17:32.724 --> 0:17:35.364 the US government debt gets less attractive, it could be 0:17:35.404 --> 0:17:37.364 that inflation takes off, it could be there all kinds 0:17:37.364 --> 0:17:40.004 of problems, but there's never a need to default. I 0:17:40.004 --> 0:17:42.084 think the decision to default would be just that it 0:17:42.124 --> 0:17:44.804 would be a decision the US government would have to 0:17:44.844 --> 0:17:48.444 actively decide we want to stiff our creditors. So you 0:17:48.564 --> 0:17:50.884 just have to look at the president and say, because 0:17:50.924 --> 0:17:53.044 this looked like a man who stiffs his creditors, I 0:17:53.084 --> 0:17:56.244 don't think. I don't think. So how long does sounds 0:17:56.324 --> 0:17:57.604 like Donald J. Trump to me? 0:17:57.724 --> 0:18:01.164 This is President Trump, which I candect him and the ft. 0:18:01.364 --> 0:18:04.724 We have a new acronym. It's Taco. Taco stands for 0:18:04.804 --> 0:18:09.084 Trump always chickens out. So the bet is that he 0:18:09.164 --> 0:18:12.604 will not in fact default, even though he's talking about 0:18:12.684 --> 0:18:16.284 various things that already looked like default, because the consequences 0:18:16.324 --> 0:18:19.164 would be so catastrophic that he would look at the 0:18:19.204 --> 0:18:22.124 consequences and he would back away. But that doesn't mean 0:18:22.324 --> 0:18:26.924 that he couldn't do some damage. So fingers crossed, all right? 0:18:27.484 --> 0:18:32.244 So listener Jack wants us to explore the thorny issue 0:18:32.284 --> 0:18:36.564 of cell phones in school and writes Australia has been 0:18:36.644 --> 0:18:40.764 running an experiment with New South Wales banning mobile phone 0:18:40.844 --> 0:18:44.804 use in all schools from October twenty twenty three. This 0:18:44.964 --> 0:18:48.084 is following the implementation of a ban in Victoria in 0:18:48.124 --> 0:18:53.924 twenty twenty which itself cites research from England and other justifications. 0:18:54.364 --> 0:18:57.124 So this listener has kids in school. This is not 0:18:57.164 --> 0:18:59.604 where I thought the question was going to go. Actively 0:18:59.804 --> 0:19:05.404 helps the fourteen year old subvert this ban, so they 0:19:05.444 --> 0:19:08.004 have an old phone and a locked pouch and their 0:19:08.084 --> 0:19:10.844 actual phone in their back. This is because they must 0:19:10.924 --> 0:19:13.524 use their phone to hotspot the internet to their laptop. 0:19:14.404 --> 0:19:17.844 Jack writes, My opinion is the whole thing as stupid, 0:19:17.884 --> 0:19:20.204 as most kids have some kind of workaround and are 0:19:20.244 --> 0:19:23.364 on their laptops all day. Anyway, if parents are on 0:19:23.404 --> 0:19:26.764 their phones all the time, why are we expecting kids 0:19:26.804 --> 0:19:29.564 not to be. I still see teachers in playgrounds face 0:19:29.604 --> 0:19:32.364 and phone, and all the injustices and hypocrisy of my 0:19:32.404 --> 0:19:34.804 own school days come flooding back. I mean, I know 0:19:34.844 --> 0:19:36.764 I'm asking this question. I have so many thoughts, but 0:19:36.964 --> 0:19:38.724 I'll open it up to you guests first. 0:19:40.164 --> 0:19:43.844 I also have thoughts. I think the hypocrisy thought is real. 0:19:44.484 --> 0:19:47.324 I have three children myself. My oldest child is twenty one, 0:19:47.404 --> 0:19:51.684 the youngest is thirteen. They see me being distracted by 0:19:51.724 --> 0:19:54.484 my phone all the time, and of course they're going 0:19:54.484 --> 0:19:57.124 to be influenced by that. I think that this is 0:19:58.044 --> 0:20:01.644 an evil device useful but evil that we all of 0:20:01.724 --> 0:20:05.244 us need to fight together because it's capable of ruining 0:20:05.324 --> 0:20:08.204 all of our lives. I feel like I should set 0:20:08.244 --> 0:20:11.524 a good example, and I don't feel that the fact 0:20:11.604 --> 0:20:14.044 that the grown ups are being distracted by the phones 0:20:14.484 --> 0:20:16.764 is particularly a good reason to say the kids should 0:20:16.764 --> 0:20:18.964 have the phones too. I mean, we would never say, hey, 0:20:19.004 --> 0:20:22.164 I see the grown ups drinking vodka and smoking, so 0:20:22.444 --> 0:20:25.244 why surely it's fine for the nine year olds to 0:20:25.284 --> 0:20:27.484 also drink vodka and smoke. I mean, I don't think 0:20:27.484 --> 0:20:28.084 that follows. 0:20:28.244 --> 0:20:29.364 It's hypocritical term. 0:20:29.404 --> 0:20:32.084 It's hypocritical that you do not like your child. 0:20:32.364 --> 0:20:36.284 Yeah, well, I think it suggests that maybe the grown 0:20:36.324 --> 0:20:38.764 up shouldn't bring so much vodka and shouldn't smoke so much, 0:20:39.124 --> 0:20:41.284 rather than the other way around. But anyway, yeah, we 0:20:41.564 --> 0:20:43.324 are setting an example, whether we like it or not. 0:20:43.564 --> 0:20:46.204 I completely agree with that. And to add to it, 0:20:46.564 --> 0:20:51.164 the use of screens in general, it's very different depending 0:20:51.244 --> 0:20:54.284 on your age. There's emerging research, but now we have 0:20:54.684 --> 0:20:57.804 a few decades worth of what phones do to developing 0:20:57.844 --> 0:21:00.884 brains and kind of the habits that you create from 0:21:00.924 --> 0:21:02.964 a young age. So being on the phone as an 0:21:02.964 --> 0:21:07.244 adult who grew up without that kind of access is 0:21:07.444 --> 0:21:10.964 very different from growing up and actually constantly being connected 0:21:10.964 --> 0:21:13.484 to a scream. By the way, there's also research that 0:21:13.524 --> 0:21:16.484 shows that taking notes by hand is much more powerful 0:21:16.524 --> 0:21:20.004 than taking notes on a laptop. Right. You retain more information, 0:21:20.124 --> 0:21:23.804 you learn better because there's a brain link between the 0:21:23.844 --> 0:21:26.684 hand and the brain that does not exist when you're typing. 0:21:27.124 --> 0:21:29.084 It would be better. I totally agree with you, Tim, 0:21:29.124 --> 0:21:31.844 Adults should be on their phones much less than I 0:21:31.884 --> 0:21:35.484 write about this. I think it's actually really great practice 0:21:35.644 --> 0:21:38.604 to not have your phone. I've sometimes left my phone 0:21:38.644 --> 0:21:41.324 at home on purpose to kind of have a day 0:21:41.724 --> 0:21:45.044 without cell phones. I have programs that turn the Internet 0:21:45.084 --> 0:21:48.724 off on my computer because I lack willpower if I don't, 0:21:48.764 --> 0:21:51.604