WEBVTT - VP Debate Preview with David Pakman 0:00:00.280 --> 0:00:02.440 Very pleased to be joined on this episode of The 0:00:02.480 --> 0:00:06.200 Warning podcast by the host of The David Pacman Show, 0:00:06.559 --> 0:00:08.160 David Pacman himself. 0:00:08.480 --> 0:00:10.000 This is the Warning. 0:00:11.000 --> 0:00:14.280 Today is the vice presidential debate. It is the last 0:00:14.320 --> 0:00:18.520 major event contact, if you will, between the two sides 0:00:19.000 --> 0:00:22.120 before the final month of the campaign. We wait for 0:00:22.160 --> 0:00:26.079 the October surprise, whatever that may be. But until then, 0:00:26.560 --> 0:00:28.280 there's a lot of campaigning to do. 0:00:28.960 --> 0:00:30.680 David, welcome, Thank you. 0:00:31.400 --> 0:00:35.240 What are you looking for tonight as we get ready 0:00:35.280 --> 0:00:36.920 for this vice presidential debate? 0:00:37.400 --> 0:00:41.160 A couple of things I'm interested in seeing tonight. Number one, 0:00:41.800 --> 0:00:44.839 as far as Jade Vance goes, is he going to 0:00:45.000 --> 0:00:50.080 show up and kind of be the alternative to Trump 0:00:50.280 --> 0:00:55.040 in the sense of going towards policy, going away from 0:00:55.080 --> 0:00:59.760 personal attacks, or is he going to join Trump in 0:00:59.800 --> 0:01:04.840 the at kind of haphazard, a brazen style that includes 0:01:04.920 --> 0:01:09.000 more recently saying Kamala Harris is mentally disabled, et cetera. Like. 0:01:09.040 --> 0:01:10.039 In other words, does jd. 0:01:10.160 --> 0:01:13.040 Vance want to show up and say I am Trump 0:01:13.280 --> 0:01:17.800 plus one, or if you don't like Trump's politics, I'll 0:01:17.840 --> 0:01:20.640 do the buttoned up policy discussion. That's one thing I'm 0:01:20.680 --> 0:01:25.600 interested in seeing. Number Two, I expect that JD. Vance 0:01:25.760 --> 0:01:30.680 will try to make his opposition to Harris Walls partially 0:01:30.720 --> 0:01:34.880 along the lines of we're against the elites, We're against 0:01:34.920 --> 0:01:38.440 these East Coast liberals, et cetera. And of course Tim 0:01:38.480 --> 0:01:42.560 Walls is not that, and so I'm very curious whether 0:01:42.640 --> 0:01:45.840 Tim Walls, as the Midwestern I know how to fix 0:01:45.880 --> 0:01:50.640 a clutch guy, is going to be able to repel 0:01:51.320 --> 0:01:54.680 that from JD. Vans and actually show listen Vance is 0:01:54.760 --> 0:01:57.840 more of that than I am, for sure, and so 0:01:57.920 --> 0:02:00.400 I'm interested in seeing that dynamic because they they have 0:02:00.440 --> 0:02:03.040 a hammer. Vance has a hammer, which is we are 0:02:03.040 --> 0:02:06.800 not like these coastal elites. Tim Walls is not one 0:02:06.840 --> 0:02:09.280 of those coastal elites. So I'm interested to see kind 0:02:09.320 --> 0:02:10.760 of how that dynamic plays out. 0:02:10.840 --> 0:02:13.840 When you think about this debate, do you think that JD. 0:02:14.040 --> 0:02:18.920 Vance is going to come out hard on Waltz's military record. 0:02:19.440 --> 0:02:22.480 I think that that's very risky and that he almost 0:02:22.520 --> 0:02:26.640 certainly will not, because you know, Rolling Stone has a 0:02:26.680 --> 0:02:29.840 peace out. Now about turns out jd lied about the 0:02:29.840 --> 0:02:33.160 poor upbringing. It was pretty middle class. There was substance abuse, 0:02:33.200 --> 0:02:36.000 but it was pretty middle class. JD. Vance in his 0:02:36.160 --> 0:02:41.160 book describes his time in the military doesn't lie about 0:02:41.160 --> 0:02:45.400 having seen combat, but he describes it in relatively more 0:02:45.480 --> 0:02:48.520 dramatic terms than what he's more recently acknowledged. So I 0:02:48.560 --> 0:02:51.440 think there's risk to JD that that gets turned around 0:02:51.480 --> 0:02:52.560 on him as well. 0:02:52.720 --> 0:02:57.760 When you think about his liabilities your governor Walls coming 0:02:57.800 --> 0:03:02.360 into this debate, you are debating somebody who I think 0:03:02.520 --> 0:03:07.519 made one of the most astonishing concessions of my thirty 0:03:07.600 --> 0:03:12.800 years working in politics, which he says in an interview 0:03:12.840 --> 0:03:19.040 with Dana Bash, Hey, it's okay if we make up 0:03:19.040 --> 0:03:22.600 the story about the Haitians eating the cats eating the 0:03:22.720 --> 0:03:26.840 dogs in this town because the town was ignored by 0:03:26.880 --> 0:03:30.800 the national media. The town has a problem. Even though 0:03:30.840 --> 0:03:33.600 the lie is a lie and it's sensational. Now the 0:03:33.680 --> 0:03:36.000 national media is focused on the town. 0:03:36.440 --> 0:03:37.080 How do you. 0:03:37.120 --> 0:03:44.800 Engage somebody who said that, what's the right approach into that? 0:03:45.480 --> 0:03:50.760 If you are advising Walls, or even from your perch 0:03:51.040 --> 0:03:55.720 just analyzing this this tonight, what are you looking for there? 0:03:56.240 --> 0:03:58.960 This is certainly going to be front and center in 0:03:59.040 --> 0:03:59.960 the debate tonight. 0:04:00.280 --> 0:04:01.960 The first thing is I would go in. 0:04:02.200 --> 0:04:04.440 You know, I sometimes get calls from people in my 0:04:04.520 --> 0:04:08.600 audience who say, you know, if if Kamala Harris just 0:04:08.680 --> 0:04:11.920 said X, or if Tim Walls just said why, they'd 0:04:11.960 --> 0:04:13.360 have no retort. 0:04:12.960 --> 0:04:14.240 They'd be dead in the water. 0:04:14.400 --> 0:04:17.520 We've got them, and I always explained, you might think that, 0:04:18.120 --> 0:04:20.279 but they have a plan, they have the you know 0:04:20.320 --> 0:04:22.240 you're not going to catch them off guard. So, first 0:04:22.279 --> 0:04:25.880 of all, the approach from Vance is going to be 0:04:26.720 --> 0:04:30.560 when I talked about creating stories, I didn't mean I 0:04:30.800 --> 0:04:34.680 fabricate facts. What I mean is there's something happening that 0:04:34.720 --> 0:04:38.039 the media is not covering, and therefore I'm going to 0:04:38.120 --> 0:04:43.400 create more interesting language or insist on talking about it 0:04:43.800 --> 0:04:47.440 so that media stories are created. It's splitting hairs. But 0:04:47.720 --> 0:04:50.480 his argument is going to be I didn't make up 0:04:50.720 --> 0:04:54.880 the facts. I am creating a media story around something 0:04:54.920 --> 0:04:58.000 that's being ignored, now, don't I don't believe that that 0:04:58.160 --> 0:05:01.240 comports with the facts, obviously, but he'll be prepared to 0:05:01.600 --> 0:05:02.360 splice hairs. 0:05:02.560 --> 0:05:04.080 I think for Walls, the. 0:05:04.120 --> 0:05:07.840 Key is to know exactly how to bring it up 0:05:08.000 --> 0:05:11.799 in the way that in the debate against Trump, Kamala 0:05:11.880 --> 0:05:16.240 Harris she had her prepared moment about bored people leaving 0:05:16.279 --> 0:05:17.120 Trump's rallies. 0:05:17.560 --> 0:05:20.200 It was rehearsed. She knew she was going to do it. 0:05:20.240 --> 0:05:21.919 She had it in her pocket, and it was just 0:05:21.960 --> 0:05:24.400 about finding the right moment to do it. And it 0:05:24.480 --> 0:05:27.279 worked so well it sent Trump for a loop, wildly 0:05:27.320 --> 0:05:30.679 triggering him, and he never recovered in the debate for walls, 0:05:30.760 --> 0:05:33.760 it's knowing that Vance is going to be ready to 0:05:33.760 --> 0:05:36.360 split hairs in this way. About creating stories doesn't mean 0:05:36.400 --> 0:05:37.919 you make up the facts. It means you force the 0:05:37.920 --> 0:05:40.719 corporate media to be accountable or whatever. He needs to 0:05:40.760 --> 0:05:43.320 know the exact right. I mean, I would be rehearsing 0:05:43.400 --> 0:05:45.039 exactly how to bring it up and to make a 0:05:45.080 --> 0:05:47.839 point of you can't believe anything this guy says. He 0:05:47.920 --> 0:05:50.839 went on National TV and with a straight face, looked 0:05:50.839 --> 0:05:53.600 at Dana Bash and said, I'm going to keep creating 0:05:53.680 --> 0:05:56.120 these stories and just know when to deploy it. 0:05:56.200 --> 0:05:56.880 That's the key. 0:05:57.200 --> 0:05:58.919 You think Wallas is going to call him a weirdo 0:05:59.040 --> 0:05:59.719 to his face. 0:06:00.279 --> 0:06:04.440 I think he probably will at some point in the debate. Yeah, 0:06:04.480 --> 0:06:07.520 and I and I to be honest, I hope he does, 0:06:07.880 --> 0:06:11.200 because it doesn't really seem to have I'd be curious 0:06:11.240 --> 0:06:13.360 what you think, but I don't think there's a downside 0:06:13.360 --> 0:06:15.400 to him deploying that either, because it seems to be 0:06:15.440 --> 0:06:16.320 working really well. 0:06:16.839 --> 0:06:19.120 Yeah, no doubt, I think he is. I think it's 0:06:19.120 --> 0:06:21.640 going to be a big moment, and if he does 0:06:21.680 --> 0:06:24.640 it the right way, it's gonna be a it's gonna 0:06:24.640 --> 0:06:27.960 be a tough punch. I'm close friends with Tim Ryan, 0:06:28.960 --> 0:06:33.360 and Tim Ryan of course ran against Jadie Vance and 0:06:33.480 --> 0:06:38.000 Vance wins that race by five points or so and 0:06:38.520 --> 0:06:42.560 the top of the ticket loses by twenty six points, 0:06:43.120 --> 0:06:46.440 which made it very very difficult for Tim Ryan. But 0:06:46.560 --> 0:06:51.920 Tim mauled jd Vance in the debate. He was extremely aggressive, 0:06:52.680 --> 0:06:56.520 held him to an account, and I imagine that's how 0:06:56.600 --> 0:06:59.159 Walls is going to come out of the come out 0:06:59.160 --> 0:07:01.719 of the gate today. He's gonna he's gonna come out 0:07:01.839 --> 0:07:07.400 like a like a football team, very very aggressively in 0:07:07.520 --> 0:07:10.080 the in the first minutes after him trying to rattle 0:07:10.160 --> 0:07:15.160 Jade Vance, who doesn't seem to do very well uh 0:07:15.240 --> 0:07:19.280 in these interviews when he's questioned, Uh, he gets rattled 0:07:19.320 --> 0:07:24.840 pretty easy. He contradicts himself, uh pretty often. And so 0:07:25.000 --> 0:07:29.160 it's going to be an interesting debate. I prepped was 0:07:29.200 --> 0:07:31.640 one of the people who prepedic Cheney back in the 0:07:31.760 --> 0:07:35.560 day against John Edwards, and that was a vice presidential 0:07:35.600 --> 0:07:41.200 debate that was devastating in that when you walked out, 0:07:41.240 --> 0:07:44.720 you were just say, wow, that's wow. Right, you know, 0:07:44.840 --> 0:07:49.680 one person just clearly won the debate. And and that's 0:07:49.720 --> 0:07:52.160 what I think Wallas is going to be going for 0:07:52.160 --> 0:07:55.840 for here tonight. He's gonna you know, particularly, you don't 0:07:55.840 --> 0:07:58.680 want to take it. You have you have competition right 0:07:58.720 --> 0:08:02.960 between the principles. You know, she crushed Donald Trump in 0:08:03.040 --> 0:08:08.119 the in the debate. Now it's his turn. Really after 0:08:08.200 --> 0:08:11.880 the convention, speed try. The vice presidential candidate has only 0:08:11.920 --> 0:08:14.280 one more official thing to do, and this is it, 0:08:14.920 --> 0:08:18.120 and so you want to do really well at it. 0:08:18.920 --> 0:08:26.120 Dick Cheney prepared for this debate one night for over 0:08:26.320 --> 0:08:34.559 a year, five to six hours every Sunday religiously of prep, rehearsal, practice, 0:08:34.640 --> 0:08:38.680 getting ready for this, for this debate. So you know, 0:08:38.760 --> 0:08:42.320 Wall certainly didn't have that amount of time and prep. 0:08:43.160 --> 0:08:46.480 But since he's been selected, you know, if you're going 0:08:46.559 --> 0:08:51.240 to be the VP nominee, you have this coming right. 0:08:51.320 --> 0:08:53.520 This is you know, it's like a wedding, right, You're 0:08:53.520 --> 0:08:56.520 gonna have the rehearsal dinner, You're going to have the 0:08:56.760 --> 0:08:59.640 you're gonna have the ceremony, you're gonna have the reception 0:08:59.760 --> 0:09:02.440 after and this is part of that. 0:09:02.480 --> 0:09:04.360 This is part of that process for him. 0:09:04.440 --> 0:09:08.679 So in your experience, is it considered that there's an 0:09:08.720 --> 0:09:13.240 asymmetrical risk to the VP debate that if you do well, 0:09:13.760 --> 0:09:16.800 the upside is smaller or is that It seems to 0:09:16.840 --> 0:09:18.480 me that that would be the case, But I don't 0:09:18.520 --> 0:09:18.800 know that. 0:09:19.200 --> 0:09:19.480 Well. 0:09:20.160 --> 0:09:23.800 The VP debate has served in some ways as a 0:09:23.840 --> 0:09:27.080 circuit breaker, right. One of the things that's really unique 0:09:27.160 --> 0:09:31.400 about this presidential cycle is the total disruption of the 0:09:31.520 --> 0:09:35.560 fall campaign because of the absence of four debates, three 0:09:35.600 --> 0:09:39.920 presidential and one vice presidential. So if you go back 0:09:39.920 --> 0:09:43.640 in that Bush debate, Bush does terrible in the first debate. 0:09:43.920 --> 0:09:47.360 The VP debate is the second debate. It's like a 0:09:47.360 --> 0:09:52.040 circuit breaker, right, because Cheney wins that debate, it calms 0:09:52.080 --> 0:09:56.080 the waters coming into the rematch, and it's like a 0:09:56.120 --> 0:10:00.440 baseball game, right, it's the best of three. Even in 0:10:00.480 --> 0:10:06.240 a presidential debate, if it's Romney against Obama and incumbon presidents, clearly, 0:10:06.920 --> 0:10:09.880 UH have an issue when it comes to prepping for 0:10:09.920 --> 0:10:13.760 the debate because they all do very, very poorly in 0:10:13.840 --> 0:10:17.560 the in the first outing but but even in a 0:10:17.640 --> 0:10:21.760 debate where the presidential candidate completely boots, it's just like 0:10:21.800 --> 0:10:23.839 a sporting event where it's a it's a best of 0:10:23.920 --> 0:10:28.760 three series, they're gonna get two more shots. So the 0:10:28.840 --> 0:10:32.680 vice presidential debate, if it went completely off the rails 0:10:32.880 --> 0:10:36.880 and it became a distraction for the presidential campaign, meaning 0:10:36.960 --> 0:10:40.000 for the for the for the presidential nominee, I think 0:10:40.000 --> 0:10:44.400 that's the most you can you can hope for, generally speaking, 0:10:44.520 --> 0:10:48.120 even debates like the Dan Quaile debate, which was one 0:10:48.120 --> 0:10:51.720 of the most devastating moments, if not the most in 0:10:51.800 --> 0:10:55.200 a in a in a national debate, where Lloyd Benson 0:10:55.240 --> 0:10:56.160 looks at him and says, you. 0:10:56.160 --> 0:10:59.120 Know, I knew Jack Kennedy. You know Jack Kennedy, and. 0:10:59.000 --> 0:11:03.920 He looks so warly wounded by it all. Even that, 0:11:04.440 --> 0:11:08.319 in the end is not something that factors in very 0:11:08.440 --> 0:11:12.760 much in the voting. Did decision as a singular aspect 0:11:12.920 --> 0:11:14.200 in the choice. 0:11:14.160 --> 0:11:15.720 That makes a lot of sense, And I think with 0:11:15.800 --> 0:11:20.120 Trump there's another aspect to it, which is Trump doesn't 0:11:20.200 --> 0:11:23.640 want to be embarrassed by Vance, but he also doesn't 0:11:23.640 --> 0:11:26.439 want to be outdone or outshined by JD. 0:11:26.559 --> 0:11:28.120 Vance, And so Vance. 0:11:27.840 --> 0:11:31.200 Also needs to do well, as Trump would see it, 0:11:31.800 --> 0:11:34.400 without doing well in a way that now Trump feels 0:11:34.440 --> 0:11:37.280 like he's being upstaged because of his ego and the 0:11:37.360 --> 0:11:41.839 personality driven aspects of how Trump functions. So needless to say, 0:11:41.920 --> 0:11:44.839 I don't envy jd Vance's position, although I hope that 0:11:44.880 --> 0:11:45.839 he does not do well. 0:11:46.240 --> 0:11:50.440 You could see the look on Trump's face. I mean 0:11:50.960 --> 0:11:55.120 Trump was out there during the convention evaluating everybody. 0:11:56.000 --> 0:11:56.960 He was judging them. 0:11:57.559 --> 0:11:59.440 I mean he was like he was like the guy 0:11:59.480 --> 0:12:02.360 from the right up in the up in the stage 0:12:02.480 --> 0:12:07.440 with his with his with his clipboard. Jd Vance did 0:12:07.440 --> 0:12:11.920 not please Trump during his convention speech. If you have 0:12:12.480 --> 0:12:18.439 any understanding of like basic human body language and any 0:12:18.720 --> 0:12:26.400 any any registerable emotional intelligence, the weird clapping, you know, 0:12:27.240 --> 0:12:32.880 the stepping back and the impromptus, so Trump will be 0:12:33.000 --> 0:12:37.640 judging him. Uh, Trump wants to see proverbial blood on 0:12:37.720 --> 0:12:41.199 the floor, and I think he's unlikely to get it. 0:12:41.800 --> 0:12:46.880 There's no way Trump is happy with his performance. It's 0:12:46.920 --> 0:12:52.240 inconceivable that he would. And so if after this debate, 0:12:52.440 --> 0:12:55.760 even in the circumstance you're talking about, jd Vance quits 0:12:55.840 --> 0:13:00.040 himself pretty well, all the opposition groups that go out. 0:13:00.080 --> 0:13:01.480 There and say that JD. 0:13:01.720 --> 0:13:05.040 Vance is better than Trump, is the better mag the 0:13:05.120 --> 0:13:10.080 leader that has the ability to destabilize Trump as well. 0:13:10.200 --> 0:13:12.840 In the final thirty days, you know when Trump is 0:13:12.840 --> 0:13:15.280 coming into a moment where you know, if you look 0:13:15.320 --> 0:13:17.000 at what he said it over the weekend, and I 0:13:17.520 --> 0:13:20.640 want to talk to you about this, the rhetoric is 0:13:20.679 --> 0:13:22.560 getting very very dark. 0:13:23.040 --> 0:13:25.520 Yeah, and maybe before we moved to that, though, one 0:13:25.520 --> 0:13:29.040 other thing I wanted to mention was in the debate. Obviously, 0:13:29.080 --> 0:13:32.480 the economy and inflation is going to come up, and JD. 0:13:32.679 --> 0:13:36.800 Vans and Trump have been talking kind of in absolute terms. 0:13:37.520 --> 0:13:41.600 Gas is expensive, eggs are expensive, groceries are expensive, et cetera. 0:13:42.240 --> 0:13:46.720 I'm really curious how Tim Walls will prepare to hit 0:13:46.840 --> 0:13:49.600 that head on in a way that will make sense 0:13:49.760 --> 0:13:53.440 to a viewing public that may not follow economics closely, 0:13:53.960 --> 0:13:57.040 because there's a belief among many that what we need 0:13:57.120 --> 0:14:00.880 is prices to quote go down in absolute ters, and 0:14:00.920 --> 0:14:04.239 of course that's quite rare in most Western developed economies 0:14:04.320 --> 0:14:07.400 and can set off a deflationary spiral. And while the 0:14:07.480 --> 0:14:10.800 intuitive sense would be prices going down is good. It 0:14:10.840 --> 0:14:14.000 means I can buy more stuff when you understand that 0:14:14.000 --> 0:14:17.960 that means people wait to make purchases because they expect 0:14:18.040 --> 0:14:21.200 prices to be lower, which slows down the economy, which 0:14:21.280 --> 0:14:23.560 lead to layoffs. You have to have some way to 0:14:23.600 --> 0:14:26.400 push back against JD Vance just coming in and talking 0:14:26.440 --> 0:14:30.560 about inflation, inflation, inflation that actually will resonate with the 0:14:30.600 --> 0:14:33.240 public and make sense. And I don't know what that 0:14:33.280 --> 0:14:36.040 would be, but I assumed Tim Wallace's people around him 0:14:36.600 --> 0:14:38.800 who will get him ready to deal with that issue 0:14:38.800 --> 0:14:39.720 in a way that's clear. 0:14:39.920 --> 0:14:44.960 There's no question that on the question of the economy 0:14:45.520 --> 0:14:48.480 that Kim Wallash is the guy on the Democratic side 0:14:48.480 --> 0:14:54.280 that everybody is hoping can talk to people in a 0:14:54.320 --> 0:14:58.640 way that relates to them, that they're capable of understanding 0:15:00.080 --> 0:15:04.160 that he's a very middle class guy and that he 0:15:04.320 --> 0:15:05.280 has that connection. 0:15:06.480 --> 0:15:09.000 No, without a douption, no question about that. 0:15:09.360 --> 0:15:13.000 You know that that he's the he's probably you know 0:15:13.080 --> 0:15:15.480 Tim Wallas is a teacher. Is he able to teach 0:15:15.560 --> 0:15:16.840 basic economics? 0:15:16.920 --> 0:15:17.080 Right? 0:15:17.160 --> 0:15:20.400 And that's always part of a that's always part of 0:15:20.440 --> 0:15:21.080 a campaign. 0:15:21.800 --> 0:15:25.040 Who can teach economics the best. When we think. 0:15:24.920 --> 0:15:29.240 About media and we think about old media new media, 0:15:29.520 --> 0:15:32.520 we think about the success of your show. You look 0:15:32.600 --> 0:15:36.920 at media's story in the news. Uh Jota leaving the 0:15:37.000 --> 0:15:42.960 Today Show twenty million dollar contract. The show size has 0:15:43.000 --> 0:15:47.480 been halved in recent years, choosing to retire, you know, 0:15:47.560 --> 0:15:52.040 But all of this era of the twenty million dollars salaries, 0:15:52.200 --> 0:15:56.320 it's all over in media. Word that really, you know, 0:15:56.480 --> 0:15:59.120 was not ubiquitous even a couple of years ago, with 0:15:59.240 --> 0:16:03.360 corporate media, and now everyone talks about corporate media, even 0:16:03.440 --> 0:16:08.640 replacing the term legacy legacy media. But I want to 0:16:08.720 --> 0:16:13.240 talk about an aesthetic of media and how you see 0:16:13.240 --> 0:16:19.600 it that drives me crazy in how things are covered 0:16:19.840 --> 0:16:22.200 and viewed, and get your thoughts on it. So I'm 0:16:22.240 --> 0:16:26.920 watching I'm watching CNN and the Sunday shows, and I'm 0:16:26.960 --> 0:16:32.320 watching Manu Raju ask Kevin McCarthy or Tom Emmer. I 0:16:32.360 --> 0:16:34.960 forget which one, but it was Kevin McCarthy and Tom 0:16:35.000 --> 0:16:40.200 Emmer were both being grilled and the question was very predictably, 0:16:41.280 --> 0:16:47.360 what do you have to say about Trump calling the 0:16:47.440 --> 0:16:53.560 vice president mentally disabled? Do you agree with that? And 0:16:54.280 --> 0:16:58.040 when I step back from it, of course they agree 0:16:58.040 --> 0:17:02.720 with it. They support him fully, They supported him through 0:17:02.760 --> 0:17:09.520 an insurrection. They agree with everything he says and does. 0:17:10.440 --> 0:17:15.560 And if they didn't, they wouldn't be sitting there on 0:17:15.640 --> 0:17:20.760 Sunday morning as they have been, not just in twenty four, 0:17:20.840 --> 0:17:24.000 but in twenty twenty three, twenty twenty two, twenty one, 0:17:24.200 --> 0:17:31.840 twenty nineteen, eighteen, seventeen, and sixteen. And so my question is, 0:17:33.560 --> 0:17:38.679 coming into this final month, we have a corporate media, 0:17:39.960 --> 0:17:45.480 if you will, that Tree teach Day as an episodic 0:17:46.680 --> 0:17:51.280 event in a television series, as if what happens today 0:17:51.520 --> 0:17:56.760 is disconnected completely from what's going to happen tomorrow and 0:17:57.080 --> 0:18:01.600 what happened yesterday and the day before, or and the 0:18:01.680 --> 0:18:06.680 day and the day before. So when I watch Tom 0:18:06.720 --> 0:18:12.240 Emmer or I watch Kevin McCarthy and they're asked a question, 0:18:12.480 --> 0:18:16.280 and the question is are you are you going to 0:18:16.280 --> 0:18:19.400 rebuke them for saying this? And the answer is always 0:18:19.440 --> 0:18:22.560 going to be no, they won't, and they'll squirm, they'll 0:18:22.720 --> 0:18:29.080 they'll do whatever. The coming question is who won the election? 0:18:30.359 --> 0:18:35.879 And we're about thirty five days out. I hate making predictions, 0:18:36.520 --> 0:18:39.679 but I'm gonna make one. I think that the race 0:18:39.800 --> 0:18:44.159 is going to break in Harris's direction right in the 0:18:44.200 --> 0:18:48.560 next twenty days or so, and that on election night 0:18:48.720 --> 0:18:52.639 we're gonna have a pretty clear picture of who's gonna 0:18:52.640 --> 0:18:56.680 win the election by midnight. I don't think it will 0:18:56.680 --> 0:18:59.400 be a be a late night. That's how it feels 0:18:59.400 --> 0:19:05.160 to me. I could be wrong. Later in October than today, 0:19:06.000 --> 0:19:08.760 I said that Hillary Clinton looked like she was trending 0:19:08.840 --> 0:19:12.640 to four hundred electoral votes, and in that moment she was. 0:19:14.440 --> 0:19:18.399 That being said. 0:19:16.760 --> 0:19:19.520 Harris, except for one thing, and we'll talk about that 0:19:20.200 --> 0:19:24.000 seems to me to be on a good trajectory. So 0:19:24.720 --> 0:19:29.160 envisioning that which seems to me much more likely than 0:19:29.200 --> 0:19:33.359 the moment that we remember from twenty sixteen, and I 0:19:33.440 --> 0:19:37.560 was on set for it, I think that it's more 0:19:37.760 --> 0:19:40.960 likely that she wins the race. And in that instant 0:19:42.160 --> 0:19:47.320 you'll start with the conspiracy of lies, and in advance 0:19:48.400 --> 0:19:52.160 you know all of the people who will be involved 0:19:52.200 --> 0:19:54.719 in it, because there are all the people on it, 0:19:55.520 --> 0:19:59.639 all the people who have been involved in it, who 0:19:59.720 --> 0:20:04.080 are yes every week whether they'll disavow this or that 0:20:04.320 --> 0:20:07.760 that Trump did or said, up to and including the 0:20:07.800 --> 0:20:11.399 overthrower of the government, and the answer never changes. Do 0:20:11.560 --> 0:20:16.000 you get frustrated when you watch that, when you see that, 0:20:16.800 --> 0:20:21.720 when you see the tediousness of the questioning in the 0:20:21.760 --> 0:20:27.000 corporate media about evans that at this point have the 0:20:27.119 --> 0:20:30.399 rhythmic quality of the rising of the sun in the 0:20:30.400 --> 0:20:32.720 east every. 0:20:31.760 --> 0:20:33.920 In the morning. I mean, how do you see in 0:20:34.080 --> 0:20:35.239 process all of that. 0:20:35.640 --> 0:20:39.200 I do share the frustration. I just am less convinced. 0:20:39.240 --> 0:20:42.760 You know. You started by saying, of course they don't 0:20:42.800 --> 0:20:46.000 disavow it because of course they agree with it. I 0:20:46.080 --> 0:20:49.480 actually think it's worse. I think it's of course they 0:20:49.480 --> 0:20:54.320 don't disavow it because even though they obviously personally disagree 0:20:54.359 --> 0:20:56.880 with it, in many cases, they've decided that in their 0:20:56.920 --> 0:21:01.560 public facing characters, they will not wrong or across Donald Trump. 0:21:01.560 --> 0:21:04.240 So I think it's worse. Like, on one hand, it's 0:21:04.640 --> 0:21:08.520 people who have been convinced by Trump and love all 0:21:08.520 --> 0:21:11.199 of it, including she's mentally disabled, so of course they 0:21:11.240 --> 0:21:14.959 don't disavow it. Concurrent with that, you have this guy's 0:21:14.960 --> 0:21:19.320 despicable and terrible. He's lost everything or forced us to 0:21:19.480 --> 0:21:24.400 underperform everywhere since twenty eighteen. But for as long as 0:21:24.440 --> 0:21:27.800 he controls the Republican Party, even if I'm part of 0:21:27.840 --> 0:21:30.760 why he controls it, I am not going to publicly 0:21:30.800 --> 0:21:34.320 cross him. So I actually don't believe that. McCarthy and 0:21:34.359 --> 0:21:37.000 Tom Emmer you mentioned also Lindsey Graham was interviewed about 0:21:37.000 --> 0:21:38.840 the same thing, and he said, well, I prefer to 0:21:38.880 --> 0:21:43.040 talk about issues. The weakest response you could have. I 0:21:43.119 --> 0:21:47.320 actually think they don't agree with it, but they realize 0:21:47.480 --> 0:21:50.719 until he doesn't, he has control of the Republican Party, 0:21:50.800 --> 0:21:52.600 and if they don't want to be on the outs 0:21:52.600 --> 0:21:55.960 with Democrats and on the outs with Trump, they kind 0:21:55.960 --> 0:21:58.199 of have to just go along with it. Now, I 0:21:58.200 --> 0:22:00.600 want to say one other thing about the election night 0:22:00.720 --> 0:22:04.800 scenario you mentioned. I do think the most likely scenario 0:22:05.640 --> 0:22:09.840 is a modest win by Kamala Harris when it comes 0:22:09.920 --> 0:22:12.520 to the electoral College, but one that will be pretty 0:22:12.520 --> 0:22:16.199 clear by midnight Eastern or at the latest by that morning. 0:22:16.720 --> 0:22:19.520 I do think that's the most likely scenario. I do 0:22:19.560 --> 0:22:22.960 think that the people immediately around Trump will do exactly 0:22:23.000 --> 0:22:25.800 what you said, which is they'll come to defend him 0:22:25.840 --> 0:22:29.320 with their irregularities and all of the different stuff. But 0:22:29.720 --> 0:22:32.879 I do think it's becoming increasingly clear to most Republicans 0:22:32.880 --> 0:22:36.000 that if Trump doesn't win, it's over for him. I 0:22:36.040 --> 0:22:38.000 know there's debate will he run again in twenty to 0:22:38.080 --> 0:22:39.560 twenty eight? Will he not run again. 0:22:39.359 --> 0:22:41.480 If you lose? I don't think he's running again, and 0:22:41.520 --> 0:22:42.320 I think it'll be. 0:22:42.240 --> 0:22:46.359 A self fulfilling prophecy where by the early morning of 0:22:46.440 --> 0:22:51.920 November sixth, every sane Republican defines sane however you want. 0:22:52.000 --> 0:22:54.479 But even these guys who kind of recognize the damage 0:22:54.480 --> 0:22:56.560 that Trump has done to the party, I think they'll 0:22:56.560 --> 0:22:59.640 realize that Trump has lost the power and they will 0:22:59.640 --> 0:23:02.359 start a banditing him. They won't denounce him, but I 0:23:02.440 --> 0:23:05.439 think that by the end of November sixth, if Trump loses, 0:23:05.520 --> 0:23:08.040 you are going to have a large cadre of Republicans. 0:23:08.160 --> 0:23:11.000 They won't be praising Kamala Harris, but they're going to 0:23:11.040 --> 0:23:15.400 be ready for a completely non Trump midterm and certainly 0:23:15.440 --> 0:23:18.440 twenty twenty eight, I think it's over for Trump. If 0:23:18.440 --> 0:23:22.120 he loses, he'll say he won. Some people will try 0:23:22.119 --> 0:23:25.320 to push some kind of scheme, but I think Republicans 0:23:25.359 --> 0:23:28.640 will start dropping within twelve hours of the election results. 0:23:28.960 --> 0:23:33.720 Okay, a lot to unpack there. I totally see how 0:23:33.800 --> 0:23:38.720 that scenario plays out. That it's like pushing a car 0:23:38.960 --> 0:23:42.440 uphill and all of a sudden. 0:23:43.680 --> 0:23:45.840 The momentum is over. 0:23:47.080 --> 0:23:50.520 Forward, progress is done, and it's just going to start 0:23:50.640 --> 0:23:54.199 rolling back back down the hill. Right It's just you know, 0:23:54.240 --> 0:23:57.399 it's not it's not going to not going to go 0:23:57.560 --> 0:24:00.280 up one more inch, but I'm gonna come back to that. 0:24:01.119 --> 0:24:01.560 So I was. 0:24:01.960 --> 0:24:06.119 I was on Script's Morning Rush a month month or 0:24:06.119 --> 0:24:10.119 so ago, and the subject came up about Trump in 0:24:10.760 --> 0:24:15.480 twenty twenty eight, And so I'm with you because I 0:24:15.680 --> 0:24:18.480 like to view myself as the sane person. Right, So, 0:24:18.640 --> 0:24:23.119 of course, right, the idea that he would run again, 0:24:23.320 --> 0:24:28.000 there's only been one person in all of American history 0:24:28.040 --> 0:24:33.199